Off Leash Intel · loading
One consolidated view of the South America theater — every tracked development, actor, and source report, stitched into a single evolving narrative.
Latest assessment
The United States received $13 billion from Venezuelan oil sales during the year while only $3 billion was transparently remitted to Caracas.
Unverified development · updated through
The United States received $13 billion from Venezuelan oil sales during the year while only $3 billion was transparently remitted to Caracas.
Open source reportGeography
Every mapped development in this theater. Marker precision is disclosed on selection; country and regional centroids show scope, not an exact incident site.
South America theater
112 mapped developments across 11 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Essequibo
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro accused the United States of establishing secret military bases in the oil-rich Guyanese territory claimed by Venezuela. Maduro may be using the allegation to generate fear and justify plans to defend Venezuela’s claim.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
The Financial Times estimated that the U.S. has received $13 billion in revenue from its sales of Venezuelan oil this year, but called out that only $3 billion of the proceeds has been remitted to Caracas in a transparent way.
The United States received $13 billion from Venezuelan oil sales during the year while only $3 billion was transparently remitted to Caracas.
Open source reportA CIA analysis of almost 20 years of intelligence on Venezuelan elections concluded that Venezuelan officials had "some capability in manipulating electronic voting systems" to alter up to 1.5 million votes in the country's elections since 2012.
A CIA review found that Venezuelan officials had some ability to alter as many as 1.5 million votes through electronic systems in elections since 2012.
Open source reportThe government is floundering for legitimacy after botching its response to devastating twin earthquakes, and it probably hopes the opposition will have some better governance ideas.
The interim government is struggling for legitimacy following its response to two earthquakes and may hope the opposition can contribute governance ideas.
Open source reportVenezuela's interim government announced that it will begin talks with the opposition, with the goal of "strengthening democracy."... Maria Corina Machado, will not lead talks with the government. She remains in exile - though the U.S. is now encouraging the interim government to welcome her back
Venezuela’s interim government announced talks with the opposition aimed at strengthening democracy. Opposition leader María Corina Machado remains in exile and will not lead the talks, while the United States is encouraging her return.
Open source reportVenezuela has now tallied 3,342 deaths from twin earthquakes on June 24. Thousands are still missing, and residents are seething at the government over its slow and flaccid response to the disaster.
Twin earthquakes on June 24 killed 3,342 people and left thousands missing. Public anger over the government’s response and allegations that authorities ignored or suppressed warnings about vulnerable public housing.
Open source reportThe botched response is likely to fuel public resentment of Rodriguez and her feckless government... Many - including The Economist - are calling for the U.S. government, which installed Rodriguez after capturing her predecessor, to step in and help.
Failures in the earthquake response will likely deepen public resentment toward interim President Delcy Rodriguez’s government. Some observers are calling for U.S. assistance.
Open source reportVenezuela now estimates that last week's twin earthquakes killed over 2,500 people; thousands are still missing. Emerging reports suggest that interim President Delcy Rodriguez's government has severely botched its response to the disaster.
Venezuela estimates that twin earthquakes killed more than 2,500 people and left thousands missing. Resident allegations that government aid arrived late in La Guaira and that soldiers and police failed to assist effectively.
Open source reportAnalysts suggest Machado wants to be waiting in the wings to rally her many supporters behind a bid to challenge interim President Delcy Rodriguez
Machado may want to mobilize supporters if interim President Delcy Rodriguez mishandles disaster relief, while Washington likely prefers avoiding a political contest during the response.
Open source reportBloomberg reported that Venezuela's popular exiled opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado, is trying to return to her country as soon as possible
Exiled opposition leader Maria Corina Machado is trying to return following earthquakes in Venezuela. The United States rejected her request for assistance and that a U.S. official characterized the effort as a political stunt.
Open source reportTwo strong "doublet" earthquakes struck Venezuela yesterday, killing at least 32 and injuring more than 700.
Two earthquakes killed at least 32 people, injured more than 700 and extensively damaged Caracas’s main airport. Delcy Rodriguez declared an emergency and attributes a possible death toll exceeding 10,000 to USGS modeling.
Open source reportVenezuela's government plans to reveal its outstanding borrowings in the coming weeks, and the Financial Times reported that the total figure is going to be a massive $240 billion.
Caracas plans to disclose approximately $240 billion in outstanding debt and an estimated GDP of $100 billion, implying a debt-to-GDP ratio of roughly 240%. Presenting the scale of the debt may support efforts to secure creditor write-downs and regain access to international markets.
Open source reportConservative candidate Abelardo De La Espriella won Colombia's presidential election yesterday, with a razor-thin margin of just 1% over leftist continuity candidate Iván Cepeda.
Conservative candidate Abelardo De La Espriella defeated Iván Cepeda by one percentage point. De La Espriella is a criminal-defense lawyer without prior political experience and attributes his appeal to dissatisfaction with President Gustavo Petro.
Open source reportPeru's presidential election is still too close to confidently call more than a week after polls closed. Right-wing Keiko Fujimori has a razor-thin lead over left-wing Roberto Sanchez, who there had been voting irregularities and asked for a recount.
Keiko Fujimori holds a very narrow lead over Roberto Sanchez more than a week after voting, while Sanchez alleges irregularities and seeks a recount.
Open source reportA U.S. airstrike in Venezuela's Bolívar state killed Héctor Guerrero Flores (aka Niño Guerrero), the head of the Tren de Aragua gang that the U.S. has designated as a foreign terrorist organization.
A U.S. airstrike in Bolívar state killed Héctor Guerrero Flores, also known as Niño Guerrero, and that U.S. and Venezuelan officials characterized the action as coordinated or joint.
Open source reportSunday is Father's Day in the U.S. and election day in Colombia, where Abelardo de la Espriella faces Iván Cepeda in a run-off for the presidency. De la Espriella - a right-wing businessman who styles himself after Pres. Trump - leads Cepeda - a left-leaning continuity candidate - in polls, but not by much.
Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda will contest a presidential runoff on Sunday, with de la Espriella holding a narrow polling lead.
Open source reportRather, "since there is no ideological foundation, it is simply a struggle for power, money, positions, and survival."
Former Venezuelan minister Andrés Izarra is quoted assessing that the division is driven by competition for power, money, positions and survival rather than Chavismo ideology.
Open source reportThe AP reported on emerging rifts in interim President Delcy Rodriguez's government, with longtime Maduro loyalists criticizing Rodriguez's reforms. They particularly object to her deportation of close Maduro ally Alex Saab to face trial in the U.S., and her authorization for U.S. forces to conduct training in Caracas.
Maduro loyalists oppose interim President Delcy Rodriguez’s reforms, including the deportation of Alex Saab to face trial in the United States and authorization of U.S. military training in Caracas.
Open source reportFar-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella won the first round of Colombia's presidential election, but with less support than he needed to win the presidency outright. He'll face far-left candidate Iván Cepeda in a run-off on June 21.
Abelardo de la Espriella led the first round but fell short of an outright victory and will face Iván Cepeda. President Gustavo Petro rejected the result while offering no substantiation for irregularities.
Open source reportFar-left candidate Iván Cepeda is likely to win the most votes - but not a majority - in Sunday's first round, which will pit him against either far-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella or center-right rival Paloma Valencia in a run-off on June 21.
Iván Cepeda will lead the first round without a majority and face either Abelardo de la Espriella or Paloma Valencia in a June 21 runoff.
Open source reportLeaked video caught presidential hopeful Flávio Bolsonaro - who is tied with incumbent Pres. Lula in polls ahead of October's election - asking a disgraced and now-jailed banker for R$134 million ($26.8 million) to fund a "heroic" biopic about Flávio's father, former president Jair Bolsonaro.
A leaked video showed Flávio Bolsonaro requesting R$134 million from an unnamed jailed banker for a biopic about Jair Bolsonaro. Criticism from political allies and a 2% stock-index decline attributed to expectations that the controversy would benefit President Lula.
Open source reportIt's not clear how her government will pay the higher rates. It has struggled to pay the previous, much-lower rates in recent months...
It is unclear how the government will finance the announced increases, citing difficulty meeting previous, lower obligations.
Open source reportVenezuela's interim president, Delcy Rodriguez, announced a public sector minimum wage hike of 26% to $240 per month and a pension raise to $70 per month...
Interim President Delcy Rodriguez announced a 26% increase in the public-sector minimum wage to $240 per month and raised pensions to $70 following protests over payment shortfalls.
Open source reportRepsol thinks - probably correctly - that it can operate Petroquiriquire better than PDVSA has.
Repsol is probably correct in believing it can operate the field more effectively than PDVSA.
Open source reportSpain's Repsol reached an agreement with Venezuela and its state oil company, PDVSA, to take back operational control of its operations at the Petroquiriquire field, which currently produces about 45,000 barrels per day.
Repsol reached an agreement with Venezuela and PDVSA to regain operational control of the Petroquiriquire field, described as producing about 45,000 barrels per day. Repsol committed to tripling production within three years.
Open source reportRodriguez didn't give a figure for the new minimum wage, but she said oil and mining revenues would pay for it.
Interim President Delcy Rodriguez announced an unspecified public-sector minimum-wage increase beginning the following month; oil and mining revenue would finance it. The wage has remained at 130 bolivares per month since March 2022.
Open source reportTwo right-leaning candidates are leading the presidential polls, but - with a record 35 candidates contesting the race - it's likely to go to a runoff.
Peru will hold presidential and parliamentary elections on April 12. Two right-leaning candidates lead a 35-candidate presidential field; a runoff is likely.
Open source reportThis reshuffle lets her appear to be taking action while merely consolidating power for herself.
Replacing López with González, described as a sanctioned hardliner, signals that Rodriguez is consolidating personal power rather than pursuing meaningful democratic reform.
Open source reportVenezuela's U.S.-backed interim president, Delcy Rodriguez, fired her long-serving defense minister, Gen. Vladimir Padrino López, and other top brass yesterday.
Interim president Delcy Rodriguez dismissed Defense Minister Gen. Vladimir Padrino López and other senior military officials and appointed military counterintelligence chief Gustavo González to replace López.
Open source reportVenezuela's opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado, announced in a social media post that she plans to return to her home country in the coming weeks.
Opposition leader María Corina Machado announced plans to return to Venezuela within weeks despite previously announced charges and a warning attributed to interim president Delcy Rodríguez that Machado must answer for advocating U.S. military intervention.
Open source reportColombia votes for its parliament Sunday
Colombia will hold parliamentary elections on Sunday.
Open source reportTo that end, she called on Pres. Trump to end sanctions and a naval blockade of sanctioned tankers in a speech on state television yesterday.
Rodríguez used a February 26 state-television speech to urge President Trump to end sanctions and a naval blockade of sanctioned tankers.
Open source reportAs a result, most of the deals went to shady and little-known companies with less operating experience. Caracas likely hopes to reassign them to more capable operators.
Venezuela may reassign contracts to more experienced operators and must first rebuild major oil companies’ confidence.
Open source reportInterim president Delcy Rodriguez's government suspended 19 oil and gas production sharing agreements signed under Rodriguez's predecessor, Nicolas Maduro, while Venezuela and the U.S. jointly review the contracts and counterparties.
The government led by Delcy Rodríguez suspended 19 production-sharing agreements signed under Nicolás Maduro while Venezuela and the United States review the contracts and counterparties.
Open source reporttwo U.S. F/A-18 fighter jets circled the Gulf of Venezuela for about 40 minutes yesterday
Two U.S. F/A-18s circled the Gulf of Venezuela for about 40 minutes in the closest such approach since an operation it identifies as Southern Sentinel began. A U.S. official described the flights as nonprovocative, while Caracas would view them as threatening.
Open source reportIATA, a global aviation association, warned Venezuela that revoking clearances would backfire and further reduce "connectivity to the country, which is already one of the least connected in the region."
IATA assessed that revoking airline clearances would further reduce Venezuela’s already limited international connectivity.
Open source reportVenezuela's aviation authority, INAC, ordered the airlines to resume flights within 48 hours or risk losing their flight clearance altogether.
Several international airlines paused Venezuelan service following a U.S. FAA warning, prompting aviation authority INAC to demand resumption within 48 hours or risk revocation of flight clearances.
Open source reportSome analysts think Trump's tariff threats backfired and gave leftist Pres. Lula a popularity boost and a chance to portray himself as an underdog standing up to a bully.
An assessment that Trump’s tariff threats backfired by increasing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s popularity and allowing him to present himself as resisting outside pressure.
Open source reporthe abruptly lifted most of the new levies on food goods late last week - despite Brazil's defiant pursuit of Bolsonaro's conviction.
Trump lifted most recently imposed levies on Brazilian food products despite Brazil continuing Bolsonaro’s prosecution.
Open source reportBrazil's Supreme Court ordered ex-Pres. Bolsonaro to start his 27-year prison sentence as his appeal possibilities dwindle.
Brazil’s Supreme Court ordered former President Jair Bolsonaro to begin serving a 27-year sentence as his appeal options diminished.
Open source reportKast won 24% of first-round votes to Jara's 27%, but he's likely to pick up supporters of several conservative also-rans, while she was the only liberal candidate in the first round.
Jeannette Jara received 27% and José Antonio Kast 24% in the first round, sending them to a runoff the following month. Kast has the advantage because he may consolidate support from eliminated conservative candidates.
Open source reportSeparately, another Operation Southern Spear naval strike killed three more drug traffickers on Saturday.
Another naval strike associated with Operation Southern Spear killed three drug traffickers. No location or additional operational details.
Open source reportPres. Trump told reporters on Saturday that Maduro "would like to talk." Trump also teased that he has "sort of made up my mind" about whether or not to order a land strike on Venezuela, but he declined to elaborate.
Trump said Maduro “would like to talk” and indicated he had “sort of made up my mind” about whether to order a land strike, without disclosing his decision or elaborating on possible talks.
Open source reportThe U.S. will designate Venezuela's Cartel de los Soles as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) starting next Monday, Nov. 24.
The designation will take effect on Nov. 24 and the Trump administration accuses Maduro of leading the organization. The measure could expand action against members and associates and potentially strengthen arguments for direct strikes.
Open source reportKast… appears to have the upper hand against Jeannette Jara… he's likely to pick up supporters of several conservative also-rans
Kast is better positioned to gain support from eliminated conservative candidates, while Jara has less room to expand because she was the first round’s only liberal candidate.
Open source reportChile's first round of voting yesterday sent the presidential election to a polarizing runoff… Kast won 24% of first-round votes to Jara's 27%
Chile’s first-round presidential vote produced a December runoff between Jeannette Jara and José Antonio Kast, with Jara receiving 27% and Kast 24%.
Open source reportMaduro is trying to inspire a guerrilla-style resistance in case of a U.S. land attack. It's unclear how much of his military would stand by him if his rule was threatened
Nicolás Maduro is seeking to encourage guerrilla-style resistance in the event of a U.S. ground attack. The loyalty of Venezuela’s military would be uncertain if Maduro’s rule were threatened.
Open source reportIn one clip filmed at the national military academy, army commander Gen. Johan Hernández Láre boasts that the academy's cadets "are ready to destroy the enemy" after their training on the first-person view (FPV) drone simulators in the background.
Venezuela’s army released patriotic promotional videos potentially intended to motivate personnel and attract recruits. Gen. Johan Hernández Láre saying cadets were ready to destroy the enemy near FPV-drone simulators that observers compared with a commercially available video game.
Open source reportWhether or not any of the targeted officers were actually plotting against Maduro, his crackdown on suspected traitors is bound to make other officers hesitate to challenge his authority.
Targeting suspected traitors will make other military officers less willing to challenge Maduro, whether or not the targeted personnel were involved in a plot.
Open source reportNumerous reports suggest that Venezuela's strongman, Nicolas Maduro, has been leveraging Cuban intelligence to intensify a crackdown on suspected traitors within his government by jailing and - - torturing military officers suspected of disloyalty.
Unspecified reports alleging that Nicolás Maduro has used Cuban intelligence to identify, imprison and possibly torture Venezuelan military officers suspected of disloyalty.
Open source reportThe Washington Post reported that Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro has been begging for help from Russia, China, and Iran to upgrade its arsenal, defenses, and air fleet in light of the ongoing buildup of U.S. forces in the region
Nicolás Maduro requested weapons, defensive systems and aircraft support amid a regional U.S. force buildup. Russia sent at least two cargo aircraft and Iran supplied drones, while China’s response was unclear.
Open source reportPolice arrested another 113 people and seized 118 weapons and a metric ton of drugs... Castro may yet order more raids, as this one failed to capture its main target, senior Red Command leader Edgar Alves Andrade (aka Doca).
Police arrested 113 people and seized 118 weapons and one metric ton of drugs, but failed to capture senior Red Command figure Edgar Alves Andrade, also known as Doca. It adds that rights groups criticized police tactics and that further raids were possible.
Open source reportNow - upon counting bodies in a nearby wooded area - the death toll has doubled to 132, including four police.
132 people, including four police officers, died in a favela operation targeting the Red Command crime syndicate after additional bodies were found in a wooded area.
Open source reportRio is hastily trying to clean up crime before its guests arrive for the COP30 climate conference, which starts Nov. 10.
The operation is an effort to reduce crime ahead of COP30 and compares it with previous security campaigns around major international events in Rio.
Open source reportBrazilian police mounted a massive, 2,500-officer operation against the Comando Vermelho (Red Command) drug cartel in Rio de Janeiro, killing at least 60 criminals in the ensuing firefight.
2,500 officers targeted the Comando Vermelho cartel and killed at least 60 criminals. Rights groups sought an investigation, while police officials said overwhelming force was necessary against armed gang members using weaponized drones.
Open source reportPres. Milei's party won over 40% of the vote in yesterday's legislative poll, handing Milei a resounding mandate for his austerity programs. The results also give Milei numerical license to pursue tough reforms: he now has enough legislative support to block his vetoes from being overturned.
President Javier Milei’s party won more than 40% of the legislative vote, providing enough support to prevent lawmakers from overriding his vetoes and strengthening his reform position.
Open source reportThe true number of Igla-S missiles in Venezuela is far fewer than 5,000
Venezuela possesses far fewer than 5,000 Igla-S missiles, citing an asserted lack of visible satellite evidence and Maduro’s history of exaggerated numerical claims.
Open source reportannounced that he has deployed an arsenal of over 5,000 Russian-made Igla-S anti-aircraft missiles
Nicolás Maduro announced the deployment of more than 5,000 Russian-made Igla-S air-defense missiles amid perceived U.S. threats. Increased militia recruitment and televised military exercises.
Open source reportBolivia votes in a presidential runoff between two right-leaning candidates on Sunday, after the long-ruling leftist Movimiento al Socialismo suffered a surprise defeat in August's first round vote.
Two right-leaning candidates will contest an October 19 runoff after the Movimiento al Socialismo lost the first round. An analyst's assessment that the shift reflects recurring voter rejection of the status quo.
Open source reportGuyana votes for president today. The incumbent, Irfaan Ali, is favored to win, but he faces two strong challengers who have pledged to renegotiate Exxon's contract
President Irfaan Ali is favored in the presidential election but faces two strong challengers who have pledged to renegotiate Exxon’s contract. The state received $7.5 billion under Ali.
Open source reportOther Brazilian officials - including Moraes's fellow Supreme Court justices - were apparently surprised by the order and worry that it will complicate ongoing trade talks with the U.S.
Brazilian officials fear the house-arrest order could complicate trade negotiations because of President Donald Trump’s support for Bolsonaro and opposition to the prosecution.
Open source reportBrazilian Supreme Court justice Alexandre de Moraes ordered former president - and Moraes's nemesis - Jair Bolsonaro into house arrest for violating a social media ban imposed during his ongoing trial on charges of plotting a coup, which Bolsonaro denies.
Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes ordered former President Jair Bolsonaro into house arrest for violating a social-media ban during his coup-plot trial. Bolsonaro denies the charges.
Open source reportWood Mackenzie said it expects Suriname to surpass Guyana in new oil exploration and drilling activity in 2025.
Wood Mackenzie expects Suriname to surpass Guyana in new oil exploration and drilling activity in 2025. Petronas, Chevron, Shell and TotalEnergies are active operators in Suriname.
Open source reportBP announced its largest new discovery in decades around 400 km offshore Brazil. Lab analysis will quantify the full extent of the discovery.
BP announced what it called its largest new discovery in decades, around 400 kilometers offshore Brazil. Laboratory analysis had yet to determine the discovery’s full extent.
Open source reportReuters reported that the U.S. is preparing a new authorization allowing Chevron to resume operations in Venezuela under stricter limitations
A Reuters report that Washington is preparing stricter authorization for Chevron to resume Venezuelan operations, potentially followed by permissions for Eni and Repsol. The proposed terms would favor supply-for-oil swaps over cash payments.
Open source reportAmnesty International published a new report... accusing Venezuela's leadership of crimes against humanity for using "enforced disappearances as part of a widespread and systematic attack against the civilian population, particularly those they consider dissidents."
Amnesty International published a report accusing Venezuela’s leadership of crimes against humanity through enforced disappearances targeting perceived dissidents.
Open source reportTrump also threatened Brazil with tariffs of up to 50% starting Aug. 1 for subjecting ex-Pres. Jair Bolsonaro - a Trump ally - to a "witch hunt" by trying him for attempting to stage a coup to stay in power. Brazil's current president, Lula, vowed to reciprocate.
President Donald Trump threatened tariffs of up to 50% on Brazil beginning August 1, linking the measure to Jair Bolsonaro’s prosecution, while President Lula pledged reciprocal action.
Open source reportIt is dishonest and a sign of desperation when the vice-president of Venezuela has to use a fake video to support false claims that people were crossing the border to vote in the elections.
Guyanese Vice President Bharrat Jagdeo rejected videos promoted by Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as falsely depicting Essequibo residents crossing the river to vote. 21,403 voters from a designated area of Venezuela’s Bolívar state elected 14 ruling-party representatives who do not control the disputed Guyanese territory.
Open source reportVenezuela freed a jailed U.S. Air Force veteran, Joseph St. Clair, in an olive branch that Caracas hopes will inspire Pres. Trump to extend Chevron's license to operate in Venezuela.
Venezuela released Joseph St. Clair, whom the United States had designated as wrongfully detained after his October arrest near the Colombian border. Caracas hopes the move will encourage Trump to extend Chevron’s operating license.
Open source reportThat helped justify a decision to suspend flights from Colombia to Venezuela for only a week. Flights will resume after the election.
Cabello said 21 detained people were Venezuelan and 17 were foreign nationals, while alleging all entered from Colombia. That allegation is linked to a one-week flight suspension scheduled to end after the election.
Open source reportVenezuela's sanctioned Interior Minister, Diosdado Cabello, said - without offering any evidence - that authorities arrested 37 mercenaries planning to disrupt this weekend's legislative elections
Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello claimed authorities arrested 37 mercenaries accused of planning explosives attacks and collaborating with the opposition ahead of legislative elections. He offered no evidence.
Open source reportVenezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado called on supporters to boycott the May 25 gubernatorial elections.
María Corina Machado urged supporters to boycott the gubernatorial elections, characterizing the vote as illegitimate. It adds that smaller opposition factions, including one led by Henrique Capriles, intended to participate.
Open source reportInside the report, HRW cited credible reports that at least 25 protesters were killed in the immediate aftermath of the election, and over 2,000 people were detained
A Human Rights Watch report alleging at least 25 protesters were killed and more than 2,000 people detained after Venezuela’s July 2024 election. The totals are likely underestimates. No allowed URL for the report was provided.
Open source reportand Ecuador (a run-off) on Sunday.
Ecuador’s presidential runoff is scheduled for 13 April, without providing additional details.
Open source reportAnother opposition activist, Reinaldo Araujo, died in Venezuelan jail from chronic health problems that deteriorated since his arrest on Jan. 9. Opposition-linked NGOs estimate 20 political prisoners have now died in detention.
Reinaldo Araujo died in jail after chronic health problems worsened following his January 9 arrest. Opposition-linked NGOs estimating that 20 political prisoners have died in detention; María Corina Machado blamed Nicolás Maduro's government.
Open source reportGonzález met with Guatemala's Pres. Arévalo, and will probably pay visits to other regional leaders to rally support for his opposition, but it faces a tough uphill battle amidst Maduro's relentless crackdown.
González will visit additional regional leaders to rally support but Venezuela’s opposition faces a difficult struggle amid Maduro’s crackdown.
Open source reportPres. Maduro announced the arrest of seven foreign "mercenaries" who he says were planning "terrorist acts" to disrupt his (illegitimate) inauguration on Friday.
According to Nicolás Maduro, the claim that authorities arrested two Colombians, three Ukrainians, and two U.S. citizens for planning terrorist acts to disrupt his inauguration.
Open source reportTarek Saab, announced that 233 more political prisoners were be released... Saab claims the government has now released 956 prisoners... but rights groups haven't been able to independently corroborate that count.
Attorney General Tarek Saab announced the release of 233 additional political prisoners; 956 detainees had been released in total. Rights groups had not independently corroborated that count.
Open source reportThe UN's High Commissioner for Human Rights said his agency has been "able to resume partly our activities" in Venezuela after a hiatus of nearly ten months.
The UN human-rights office partially resumed operations after an approximately ten-month hiatus and had ordered the government not to destroy election records. This is a possible investigation into the disputed July election and alleges.
Open source reportGuyana submitted a "final" written brief in its 125-year-old territorial dispute with Venezuela to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), which claims jurisdiction over the case.
Guyana submitted a final written brief to the International Court of Justice in its territorial dispute with Venezuela. Venezuela had until August 8 to reply, with oral arguments to be scheduled afterward.
Open source reportMaduro has repeatedly tried to blame Venezuela's economic woes - and now migrant flight resulting from those woes - on sanctions, but the truth is that Venezuelan GDP declined in every year from 2013, when Maduro took office, through 2019, when sanctions went into effect.
Venezuela’s economic decline predated the 2019 sanctions cited by Maduro and rejects sanctions as the primary explanation for migrant flight.
Open source reportPres. Maduro's government announced yet another investigation into "crimes of treason against the country" by opposition leader Maria Corina Machado.
Nicolás Maduro’s government announced another investigation into treason by opposition leader María Corina Machado. Maduro linked Machado to U.S. sanctions and that opposition vote tallies showed he lost the election.
Open source reportVenezuela's opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado, called for a new day of demonstrations against Pres. Maduro's election theft on Dec 1.
María Corina Machado called for demonstrations on December 1. Venezuela’s interior minister accused her of organizing another conspiracy and that police deployed around the Argentine Embassy, where opposition figures were sheltering.
Open source reportThe U.S. formally recognized Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia as the "president-elect" of Venezuela.
The United States formally recognized Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia as Venezuela’s president-elect. Opposition tallies showing him defeating Maduro by nearly two to one; Gonzalez fled to Spain in September amid fears for his life.
Open source reportHowever, Maduro's optimism seems misplaced. During his first term, Trump tightened sanctions on Venezuela so much that Maduro's government cut off diplomatic relations with the U.S.
Maduro’s outreach unlikely to succeed, citing sanctions imposed during Trump’s first term and the subsequent severing of diplomatic relations.
Open source reportPres. Maduro congratulated Pres.-elect Trump on his election victory and expressed hope for a "new beginning that we trust will be a win-win" for both countries.
President Nicolás Maduro congratulated President-elect Trump and expressed hope for a mutually beneficial new beginning, while acknowledging that Trump’s first administration had not gone well for Venezuela.
Open source reportGuyana's Pres. Ali announced a plan to give every ID-carrying adult citizen of the country a one-time $100,000 cash grant funded by proceeds from offshore oil sales.
President Irfaan Ali announced a one-time $100,000 grant for every adult citizen carrying identification, funded by offshore oil proceeds.
Open source reportMilei announced the creation of a new entity - Agencia de Recaudación y Control Aduanero (ARCA) - to replace AFIP.
President Javier Milei dissolved the Administración Federal de Ingresos Públicos and created the Agencia de Recaudación y Control Aduanero. Compensation for agency directors will fall by 90% and lower-level salaries by 30%.
Open source reportVenezuelan police arrested former oil minister Pedro Tellechea and accused him of sharing key internal documents from state oil company PDVSA with "a company controlled by the US Intelligence Services."
Police arrested former oil minister Pedro Tellechea and accused him of sharing internal PDVSA documents with a company controlled by U.S. intelligence. He had recently resigned as industry minister for health reasons and was the fourth of five oil ministers serving since 2017 to face arrest on similar allegations.
Open source reportA leftist opposition candidate, Yamandú Orsi, leads Uruguay's presidential polls, but not by enough to avoid a runoff.
Opposition candidate Yamandú Orsi leads presidential polling ahead of the 27 October vote but lacks enough support to avoid a runoff.
Open source reportAn Argentine federal court responded to Venezuela's arrest warrant for Argentina's Pres. Milei by ordering the arrest of Pres. Maduro and his top henchman, Diosdado Cabello, for committing crimes against humanity against dissidents.
An Argentine federal court ordered the arrests of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and Diosdado Cabello for crimes against humanity, following Venezuela’s warrant for Argentine President Javier Milei.
Open source report“Venezuela argues that Argentina illegally seized a Venezuelan Emtrasur Cargo Boeing 747-300FM plane in Aug. 2022 - at the request of the U.S.”
Venezuela considers Argentina’s August 2022 seizure of an Emtrasur Cargo Boeing 747-300FM, at Washington’s request, illegal. Milei is unlikely to travel to Venezuela and risk arrest.
Open source report“Tarek Saab, instructed prosecutors to issue arrest warrants for Argentina's President Javier Milei, the head of Milei's office... and Argentina's Security Minister.”
Venezuelan Attorney General Tarek Saab instructed prosecutors to seek arrest warrants for Argentine President Javier Milei, the head of his office, and Argentina’s security minister over the seizure of a Venezuelan Emtrasur cargo aircraft.
Open source report“Jorge Rodriguez then tried to blackmail Gonzalez into recanting his claim... by threatening to release an audio recording that Rodriguez says will disprove Gonzalez.”
Jorge Rodríguez presented González’s signed letter at a televised press conference and threatened to release an audio recording he claimed would disprove González’s coercion allegation.
Open source report“Delcy Rodriguez, forced him to sign a letter recognizing Maduro's fraudulent victory after ‘very tense hours of coercion, blackmail and pressure.’”
The exiled González that Vice President Delcy Rodríguez forced him to sign a letter recognizing Nicolás Maduro’s claimed election victory after hours of coercion, blackmail, and pressure.
Open source reportVenezuela detained a U.S. Navy sailor who was "on some sort of personal travel" to the country without official approval from the Navy... The circumstances of his detention are unclear
Venezuelan authorities detained a U.S. Navy sailor who had traveled to the country personally and without Navy authorization. The circumstances were unclear; its speculation about possible citizenship or family connections is not specific evidence about this case.
Open source reportPres. Maduro announced that Christmas in Venezuela will take place almost three months early this year, on October 1.
President Nicolás Maduro announced an October 1 start to Christmas; the Venezuelan Episcopal Conference objected to using the holiday for political or propaganda purposes. The move is an attempt to distract from the disputed presidency and reward loyal supporters.
Open source reportA Venezuelan court issued an arrest warrant for Edmundo Gonzalez - the opposition candidate who defeated Pres. Maduro in the July 28 presidential election - on charges of "usurpation," conspiracy, and sabotage.
Gonzalez was charged with usurpation, conspiracy and sabotage amid the disputed 28 July presidential election. The warrant is an escalation against the opposition; Gonzalez and María Corina Machado remained in hiding while continuing their campaign.
Open source reportThe opposition, meanwhile, has released online tallies showing that its candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez, won seven million votes to Maduro's three million. The court said the opposition's tallies were forged.
Venezuela’s Supreme Tribunal certified Nicolás Maduro’s election victory without publicly releasing supporting tally reports. The opposition published tallies showing seven million votes for Edmundo González and three million for Maduro, while the court characterized those tallies as forged. The post also alleges.
Open source reportIf he's allowed to stay, an analysis by Meganalisis suggests that over 40% of Venezuela's remaining population of seven million may flee the country by the end of this year.
A Meganalisis forecast that more than 40% of Venezuela’s stated remaining population of seven million could leave by year-end, potentially increasing pressure on Colombia and Brazil.
Open source reportDespite global weekend protests against Pres. Maduro's theft of last month's election, Maduro hasn't budged. The Carnegie Endowment wrote that Maduro "has dug in and is waiting for global attention to move elsewhere."
Nicolás Maduro has not changed course following international protests over Venezuela’s disputed election and quotes a Carnegie Endowment characterization that he is waiting for global attention to shift.
Open source reportThe opposition is organizing global protests against Maduro's stolen election on Saturday, Aug. 17.
Edmundo Gonzalez and Maria Corina Machado remained in hiding because of safety and arrest concerns, while the opposition organized international demonstrations for Aug. 17. Gonzalez is the election winner.
Open source reportPres. Maduro ordered his defense council to intensify a crackdown on the opposition with "greater speed, greater efficiency and an iron fist."
Nicolás Maduro directed his defense council to accelerate a crackdown, encouraged citizens to report election-result skeptics through a state application and ordered prison upgrades for additional detainees.
Open source reportBrazil, Colombia, and Mexico are urging Pres. Maduro and the opposition to respect Venezuelan law and lodge their appeals over the election... the three leftist-led countries have declined to recognize Maduro's re-election.
Brazil, Colombia and Mexico urged President Nicolás Maduro and the opposition to pursue election appeals through Venezuelan institutions while declining to recognize Maduro’s claimed reelection. Maduro was surprised by opposition support and blamed “international Zionism” for what he called a media-backed coup.
Open source reportOpposition leader Maria Corina Machado told the WSJ she's currently in hiding and "fearing for my life, my freedom" after Maduro allies called for her arrest and that of González
Opposition leader María Corina Machado is quoted as saying she was in hiding and feared for her life and freedom after allies of Nicolás Maduro called for her arrest and that of Edmundo González.
Open source reportU.S. SecState Blinken formally recognized Edmundo González as the winner of last week's disputed election in Venezuela
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken formally recognized Edmundo González as the winner of Venezuela’s disputed 28 July presidential election.
Open source reportPres. Maduro declared victory in yesterday's election. So did his opposition opponent, Edmundo González... Electoral authorities also prevented the public from fact-checking its count by refusing to release paper tallies printed by voting machines at key polling places.
Nicolás Maduro claimed 51.2% of the vote while opposition candidate Edmundo González also declared victory. Widespread irregularities, exclusion of opposition figure @MariaCorinaYA, and authorities’ refusal to release paper tallies from key polling places.
Open source reportÁvila did come to her defense, and he was promptly arrested for it. This is only the latest example of Maduro's security forces intimidating the opposition ahead of the election.
Authorities arrested María Corina Machado’s security chief, Milciades Ávila, after an provocation. Nicolás Maduro appeared 13 times on the ballot and identifies Edmundo González as the principal opposition candidate.
Open source reportThere may be some truth to that: Arce is competing with his popular predecessor, Evo Morales... for their leftist party's 2025 nomination
Zúñiga’s allegation that Arce asked him to stage an incident to improve the president’s popularity, then assesses that the claim may contain some truth because of Arce’s rivalry with Evo Morales.
Open source reportA senior Bolivian general, Juan José Zuñiga, staged a brief and bizarre coup attempt yesterday.
General Juan José Zúñiga led soldiers who breached a palace door with a military vehicle in an attempt to remove President Luis Arce. The soldiers withdrew in under three hours after the wider military and police remained loyal to Arce.
Open source reportMaduro is already manipulating the vote by bullying the opposition and blocking its strongest candidates from running against him.
Pressure on the opposition and the exclusion of leading candidates have already compromised the election.
Open source reportPres. Maduro uninvited European Union observers from monitoring his farcical July 28 presidential election on hyperbolic grounds that EU compliance with "genocidal sanctions" on Venezuela is "interventionist."
President Nicolás Maduro withdrew an invitation for European Union observers to monitor Venezuela’s July 28 presidential election, citing EU sanctions; interventionism. The EU had not accepted the invitation.
Open source reportColombia's Pres. Petro divulged that vast stockpiles of ammunition - including millions of bullets, thousands of grenades, and 37 anti-tank missiles - were stolen from two Colombian military bases.
President Gustavo Petro disclosed the theft of millions of bullets, thousands of grenades and 37 anti-tank missiles from two military bases. According to Petro, an allegation of armed-forces involvement in illegal arms trafficking and a suggestion that some weapons may have reached overseas criminal groups, including Haitian gangs.
Open source reportVoters in Ecuador approved a referendum that gives Pres. Noboa even more authority to fight drug gangs... nine of its 11 proposals look likely to pass once all votes are counted.
Voters approved a referendum expanding President Noboa’s authority to confront drug gangs and that nine of 11 proposals appeared likely to pass. Noboa deployed the military against gangs in January.
Open source reportVenezuela's oil minister, Pedro Tellechea, told Reuters that his ministry is exploring cryptocurrencies as a way to receive payments for oil sales once U.S. sanctions sink back in.
According to Oil Minister Pedro Tellechea, a statement that Venezuela is considering cryptocurrency to receive oil-sale payments after U.S. sanctions return. The discontinued Petro would not be used following an earlier corruption scandal.
Open source reportU.S. companies doing business in the Venezuelan oil sector will have 45 days to wind down their sales, and the exceptional license granted to Chevron (which is currently producing about 90,000 barrels per day in Venezuela) may even remain valid after that.
A six-month U.S. authorization for Venezuelan oil sales expired, leaving affected U.S. companies 45 days to wind down transactions. Chevron’s separate authorization may remain valid and attributes current Venezuelan production of about 90,000 barrels per day to the company.
Open source reportit's not clear whether there was actually an assassination attempt involved - this could have been another politically-motivated arrest.
Venezuelan authorities arrested an activist accused of plotting to assassinate President Nicolás Maduro. Questions remain about that allegation; the detention could instead be politically motivated amid arrests of activists and dissidents before the July election.
Open source reportVenezuela arrested two more senior energy officials as part of an investigation into billions of dollars that went missing in a crypto fraud at state oil company PDVSA.
Venezuela arrested two vice ministers in an investigation into billions of dollars missing through a cryptocurrency-related fraud at state oil company PDVSA. The arrests are linked to the earlier detention of former oil minister Tarek el Aissami.
Open source reportPetro is trying to stay in Maduro's good graces because he wants to sign a deal that would see Colombia's Ecopetrol produce Venezuelan oil and gas.
Petro wants to preserve favorable relations with Maduro to pursue an agreement under which Colombia’s Ecopetrol would produce Venezuelan oil and gas.
Open source reporthe actually only met with Socialist Party-approved "opposition" candidate Manuel Rosales, and he did so with Pres. Maduro's approval.
Colombian President Gustavo Petro met Manuel Rosales rather than representatives of the opposition aligned with Maria Corina Machado. Rosales are a government-approved opposition candidate; the meeting occurred with President Nicolás Maduro’s approval.
Open source reportPres. Maduro accused the U.S. of building "secret military bases" in the large, oil-rich chunk of Guyana that Veneuzela disputes and calls Essequibo.
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro accused the United States of establishing secret military bases in the oil-rich Guyanese territory claimed by Venezuela. Maduro may be using the allegation to generate fear and justify plans to defend Venezuela’s claim.
Open source reportThe U.S. denied Pres. Maduro's allegations that it runs - or has future plans to run - "secret military bases" in the Guyanese region Venezuela disputes and calls Essequibo.
Washington denied Maduro's claim that the United States operates or plans to operate secret military bases in the Guyanese territory claimed by Venezuela. Maduro's allegation was intended to mobilize domestic supporters.
Open source report