Off Leash Intel · loading
5 direct mentions across 5 briefings, with 6 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
President Javier Milei’s party won more than 40% of the legislative vote, providing enough support to prevent lawmakers from overriding his vetoes and strengthening his reform position.
Unverified development · updated through
President Javier Milei’s party won more than 40% of the legislative vote, providing enough support to prevent lawmakers from overriding his vetoes and strengthening his reform position.
Open source reportGeography
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Javier Milei dossier
3 mapped developments across 2 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Argentina
President Javier Milei dissolved the Administración Federal de Ingresos Públicos and created the Agencia de Recaudación y Control Aduanero. Compensation for agency directors will fall by 90% and lower-level salaries by 30%.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
1 supporting public source attached
Chronology
Off Leash update 27 Oct COMING UP THIS WEEK •Tanzania votes for president on Wednesday, but the ruling CCM party has already assured victory for its incumbent, Samia Suluhu Hassan. More on that below. •Pres. Trump began a six-day trip to Southeast Asia yesterday, and already has a peace agreement - between Cambodia and Thailand - and several trade deals to show for it. •Trump will also attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit starting Friday in South Korea, but the conference itself is less of a focus than Trump's planned meeting on its sidelines with China's Pres. Xi on Thursday. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,859/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $115,274 •Cobalt: $48,570/ton •Copper: $10,963/ton •Ethereum: $4,168 •Gold: $4,045/toz •Lead: $2,017/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.30/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $60.86/barrel •Zinc: $3,026/ton ARGENTINA •Pres. Milei's party won over 40% of the vote in yesterday's legislative poll, handing Milei a resounding mandate for his austerity programs. The results also give Milei numerical license to pursue tough reforms: he now has enough legislative support to block his vetoes from being overturned. TANZANIA •Tanzania's ruling CCM party has engaged in some brazen lawfare to ensure that Pres. Samia Suluhu Hassan, who inherited the presidency after her predecessor died in 2021, will win Wednesday's presidential election. •The two main opposition parties, Chadema and ACT-Wazalendo, were barred from running - lest voters see through CCM's questionable logic that the best way to tackle the country's festering economic challenges is to reelect the party that has failed to address them. •Instead of implementing policies to arrest rising poverty and inequality, Hassan's government has spent recent months arresting its critics. Dozens of opposition figures - and even outspoken CCM reformers - have disappeared, and authorities seem (justifiably) afraid of mass "Gen Z" protests around the election. IVORY COAST •Early results show that Ivory Coast's Pres. Alassane Ouattara won an unconstitutional fourth term on Saturday. •That's unsurprising, as Ouattara's government banned both of his serious rivals - as well as over 50 other would've-runs - from contesting the vote. CHINA •The U.S. and China announced that they'd agreed to a framework for a trade deal, as well as what U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent called a "final deal on TikTok." •That's great timing: it gives Presidents Trump and Xi two big wins to trumpet when they meet on Thursday. •Bessent said the trade deal - which is not yet final - calls for China to pause its new rare earths export controls for a year. In return, Trump would presumably delay the 100% tariff escalation he'd threatened in response to Beijing's rare earths restrictions. SUDAN •Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) said it had seized the army's Sixth Division Headquarters in El Fasher, Darfur. •There are two conflicting narratives on the significance of the RSF's pronouncement. •The first - which the army and its backers would prefer to believe - is that the base was unoccupied at the time it was "captured" - and not worth defending anyway, since the army still solidly controls the main prize of the long-besieged city of El Fasher. •The second - which the RSF optimistically promotes - is that the fallen headquarters was the last major bastion of army control in western Sudan, so its capture will solidify the RSF's grip on western Darfur. That would also boost the odds of a long-term stalemate splitting Sudan in two, with an army-run east and an RSF-controlled west. •As always, reality surely lies somewhere between the extremes. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 13 October COMING UP THIS WEEK •The International Monetary Fund and World Bank hold their annual meetings in Washington this week, starting today. •Pres. Trump will host Argentine Prime Minister Javier Milei at the White House tomorrow. Milei will certainly thank Trump for lending Argentina unprecedented U.S. financial support to lessen the pain of the severe-but-overdue economic reforms Milei is implementing. •The Grand Sumo Tournament opens at London's Royal Albert Hall on Wednesday. It's a rare chance to see sumo wrestling outside of Japan: this is the first overseas competition in 20 years, and only the 14th event the Japan Sumo Association has staged abroad in its 99-year history. •NATO defense ministers will meet in Belgium on Wednesday to discuss Ukraine. •Bolivia votes in a presidential runoff between two right-leaning candidates on Sunday, after the long-ruling leftist Movimiento al Socialismo suffered a surprise defeat in August's first round vote. A La Paz-based analyst noted that the rightward swing fits a pattern of Bolivian voters becoming frustrated with the status quo and embracing the opposite political extreme roughly every 20 years. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,748/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $114,876 •Cobalt: $42,725/ton •Copper: $10,518/ton •Ethereum: $4,155 •Gold: $4,076/toz •Lead: $2,021/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.09/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $59.98/barrel •Zinc: $3,002/ton GAZA •Hamas released the last 20 living hostages in Gaza, in exchange for Israel's commitment to return about 2,000 Palestinian prisoners later today. •Pres. Trump was in Israel to celebrate the hostages' return, which came about because of the 20-point ceasefire deal Trump proposed and successfully pitched to both sides. •The hostage-prisoner swap was only the first phase of Trump's plan - and arguably the most straightforward part of it. •Next, Trump will travel to Egypt, where he'll attend a summit to solidify the trickier next phases of the deal, including a path toward a decisive truce and a plan for administering Gaza after the war. CHINA •Cryptocurrencies and stocks fell on Friday - and gold rose - after Pres. Trump revived his threat to slap 100% tariffs on Chinese goods in retaliation for China's announcement of new export controls on rare earths last week. •Beijing's announcement surprised Trump, who called its timing "especially inappropriate" for stealing the spotlight from Trump's successful peace-dealing between Israel and Hamas. •An incensed Trump threatened to call off his upcoming - but still unconfirmed - meeting with China's Pres. Xi at an Asia-Pacific summit in South Korea later this month, saying "there seems to be no reason" to meet Xi now. •Separately, a new NYT report focused on a massive high-altitude solar project China has built on the Tibetan Plateau (see https://t.co/bKZpG0t8kl), and included an impressive statistic that illustrates the scale of China's solar ambitions: on average, China has added new solar panels with power-generating capacity equivalent to that of the immense Three Gorges Dam every three weeks during 2025. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 22 October Venezuela •Venezuelan police arrested former oil minister Pedro Tellechea and accused him of sharing key internal documents from state oil company PDVSA with "a company controlled by the US Intelligence Services." •Tellechea had just resigned from his post as Minister of Industry and National Production on Friday, citing health reasons. •He's the fourth Venezuelan oil minister since 2017 - out of five who have served in that time - to be arrested on similar allegations. Russia •Former U.S. Marine Paul Whelan spoke for the first time about his experience in the Russian prison system before his release in a swap this summer. •In an interview with CBS (https://t.co/ao8FzNaObF), Whelan called prison conditions "monotonous and filthy," and said he passed information from fellow prisoners who fought on the front lines in Ukraine along to Western officials using burner phones. •In other news about ex-Russian prisoners, murdered dissident Alexey Navalny's memoirs (titled "Patriot") come out today. The Economist called the book "a passionate and moving testimony to Russia’s extreme violence." Argentina •Argentina's Pres. Milei - who campaigned with a chainsaw symbolizing his pledge to slash the size of the bureaucracy - took another bold step towards that promise by dissolving the country's bloated revenue service, Administración Federal de Ingresos Públicos (AFIP). •Milei announced the creation of a new entity - Agencia de Recaudación y Control Aduanero (ARCA) - to replace AFIP. ARCA's directors will get paid 90% less than AFIP's, while salaries at lower levels of ARCA will see smaller reductions of 30%. Hezbollah and Hamas •SecState Blinken landed in Israel today to try to convince PM Netanyahu's government to agree to a ceasefire and hostage deal now that Israel's Enemy No. 1 - Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar - is dead. That won't be easy: Netanyahu has indicated that he isn't ready to end the war yet. •Israel's army declassified intelligence about one of the targets of its airstrikes aimed at cutting off Hezbollah's funding: a vault with tens of millions of dollars in gold and cash. •It's unclear whether the Israeli airstrikes destroyed that money, but the IDF also said it had not yet targeted a separate vault hidden under a hospital in Beirut that contains much more: "at least half a billion dollars in dollar bills and gold." A spokesman added: "This money could and still can be used to rebuild the state of Lebanon." Iran •Over the weekend, two documents purporting to show Five Eyes-only U.S. intelligence analysis of Israel's possible plans to retaliate on Iran for its ballistic missile barrage were posted on Telegram and then shared widely - especially within Iran. •The fact that the White House said Pres. Biden was "deeply concerned" about the unauthorized release of the files - plus the fact that they were first publicized by a pro-Iran account, Middle East Spectator - suggests the U.S. didn't deliberately leak them and they may have been stolen by hackers instead. •Most foreign airlines have paused flights to Iran in anticipation of Israel's retaliation. DRC •Rwanda-backed M23 rebels captured the North Kivu town of Kalembe, ending a ceasefire signed in August after years of Angolan mediation. Few believed the truce would last as long as it took DRC and the M23 to agree to it. Other News •Moldova confirmed that its referendum on (eventually) joining the EU was approved - though the vote was too close to call yesterday, thanks in part to Russia's meddling to buy 300,000 votes against the measure. Pres. Sandu called the Russian intervention "fraud of an unprecedented scale."
Open source reportOff Leash update 25 Sept Middle East •As the dust settled on Israel's strikes in southern and eastern Lebanon, the Lebanese health ministry counted at least 558 dead and 1,645 injured - including 50 women, 94 children, and some first responders. Israel said it was only targeting Hezbollah and accused Hezbollah of using civilians as human shields. •Israel then followed up with an airstrike on southern Beirut that killed a Hezbollah commander involved in the group's rocket attacks. •Then Hezbollah lobbed a ballistic missile at Tel Aviv that Iron Dome intercepted. •Some Israeli hawks want to take advantage of a weakened Hezbollah in disarray and invade southern Lebanon now, while cooler heads - like defense minister Gallant - prefer to give Hezbollah a chance to back down and avoid escalation. •The WSJ warned that a ground invasion "could turn into a quagmire, much like the war in Gaza." Despite Israeli airstrikes, Hezbollah still has a dangerous arsenal of rockets, drones, and antitank missiles; and it continues to smuggle more in. It has also had ample time to fortify a tunnel network of the sort that has bogged Israeli ground troops down in Gaza. •Thousands of people fled the southern and eastern Lebanon in anticipation of further escalation. Ukraine •Ukraine's Pres. Zelensky told the UN Security Council "Russia must be forced into peace" and said he had formed a new "victory plan" that he planned to present to Pres. Biden imminently. •Zelensky also claimed to have evidence showing that Russia is planning to attack Ukraine's three nuclear plants. Venezuela •An Argentine federal court responded to Venezuela's arrest warrant for Argentina's Pres. Milei by ordering the arrest of Pres. Maduro and his top henchman, Diosdado Cabello, for committing crimes against humanity against dissidents. China •China carried out a successful test of an intercontinental ballistic missile, and - unusually - announced it publicly. •The wording of the defense ministry's announcement was nothing special - it said the missile "fell into expected sea areas" and was merely part of a "routine arrangement in our annual training plan" - but the fact that there was an announcement at all suggests an emboldened missile program (it usually conducts tests quietly deep inside its territory and doesn't comment on their outcomes). •Separately, China announced new stimulus measures and interest rate cuts to boost consumer spending and property investment. The central bank had aimed for 5% GDP growth this year, but that now looks ambitious. Afghanistan •Speaking at an event on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, actress Meryl Streep poetically pointed out: "Today in Kabul a female cat has more freedom than a woman. A cat may go sit on her front stoop and feel the sun on her face, she may chase a squirrel in the park... A squirrel has more rights than a girl in Afghanistan today because the public parks have been closed to women and girls by the Taliban. A bird may sing in Kabul, but a girl may not in public." •A Taliban spokesman responded that his fellow officials in fact "highly respected" women and would "never compare them to cats." Libya •A delegation of assistant and deputy U.S. officials visited Libya to show support for Government of National Unity Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah and his eastern rival, Khalifa Haftar, as the two sides try agree on a resolution to their dispute over the central bank's leadership (and management of oil revenues). •Telegram founder Pavel Durov - who faces French criminal charges for complicity in illegal activity by users of the platform - changed his stance and agreed to cooperate with authorities. •He announced in a new Telegram post that the platform has updated its terms and privacy policy to explicitly disclose that "the IP addresses and phone numbers of those who violate our rules can be disclosed to relevant authorities in response to valid legal requests"
Open source reportOff Leash update 19 Sept Middle East •A day after Israel's trojan horse attack remotely detonated thousands of Hezbollah members' pagers across Lebanon, a follow-on attack remotely detonated hundreds of Hezbollah walkie-talkies. The second round of blasts killed at least 20 and injured over 450 (fewer devices exploded but they were larger devices - and thus larger explosions). •The NYT published a great article describing how Israel pulled off the operation: https://t.co/G8tTPgOKLT. •Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant issued a video statement that didn't specifically mention the Lebanon blasts (which Israel hasn't officially acknowledged - and won't acknowledge), but said the military's focus is "moving north" - i.e., towards Hezbollah. •Israel did, however, acknowledge overnight airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, including a weapons depot near Khaim. •Separately, the UN General Assembly (UNGA) overwhelmingly passed a non-binding resolution calling on Israel to end its occupation of Palestinian territories within 12 months. There are no penalties if Israel ignores the order, but the opprobrium adds to Israel's isolation at UNGA. •The Economist said the UNGA vote also "undermines America's weakening clout" at the UN: the U.S. could only rally 12 other countries to join it and Israel in voting against the resolution. Ukraine and Russia •Geolocated footage showed that Russian troops captured the Donetsk town of Ukrainsk. •While Russia continues to make slow progress in Donetsk, Ukraine is trying to stall the Russian advance at its source by striking military bases and weapons depots before they can deploy to the front lines: a new Ukrainian drone attack in Toropets ignited an arms warehouse with a blast so big that Russian state media said the town of Toropets had to be evacuated. •Vox assessed that Ukraine's targeted strikes inside Russia "are likely meant to send a signal to allies that despite the war grinding on, Ukraine isn’t beaten, and that its allies aren’t backing a lost cause." Venezuela •Venezuela's president-elect - who's now in exile in Spain - said Pres. Maduro's Vice President, Delcy Rodriguez, forced him to sign a letter recognizing Maduro's fraudulent victory after "very tense hours of coercion, blackmail and pressure" before he fled the country. •VP Rodriguez's brother Jorge - who teamed up with his sister to force Gonzalez to sign the letter when they visited him at the Spanish Embassy - presented the letter during a televised press conference yesterday. •Jorge Rodriguez then tried to blackmail Gonzalez into recanting his claim that he was blackmailed into signing the letter by threatening to release an audio recording that Rodriguez says will disprove Gonzalez. •Meanwhile, Maduro's Attorney General, Tarek Saab, instructed prosecutors to issue arrest warrants for Argentina's President Javier Milei, the head of Milei's office (who happens to also be his sister), and Argentina's Security Minister. •Venezuela argues that Argentina illegally seized a Venezuelan Emtrasur Cargo Boeing 747-300FM plane in Aug. 2022 - at the request of the U.S. •Argentine-Venezuelan relations are sour - the plane seizure was just a symptom of their enmity - so Milei is highly unlikely to visit Venezuela and expose himself for arrest. •India's far north, majority-Muslim region of Jammu-Kashmir voted in regional elections for the first time in a decade yesterday. Despite a fresh wave of disruptive militant attacks, local leaders are hopeful that the vote will help the region regain some of the political autonomy it lost when the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party stripped it of its statehood in 2019. •The U.S. Federal Reserve cut its main benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point to 4.75-5.00%. That's a bigger cut than the quarter point the market was expecting, which suggests Fed governors are confident that inflation is under control.
Open source report