Gaza exchange, China trade tensions and upcoming diplomatic meetings

Off Leash update 13 October

COMING UP THIS WEEK •The International Monetary Fund and World Bank hold their annual meetings in Washington this week, starting today. •Pres. Trump will host Argentine Prime Minister Javier Milei at the White House tomorrow. Milei will certainly thank Trump for lending Argentina unprecedented U.S. financial support to lessen the pain of the severe-but-overdue economic reforms Milei is implementing. •The Grand Sumo Tournament opens at London's Royal Albert Hall on Wednesday. It's a rare chance to see sumo wrestling outside of Japan: this is the first overseas competition in 20 years, and only the 14th event the Japan Sumo Association has staged abroad in its 99-year history. •NATO defense ministers will meet in Belgium on Wednesday to discuss Ukraine. •Bolivia votes in a presidential runoff between two right-leaning candidates on Sunday, after the long-ruling leftist Movimiento al Socialismo suffered a surprise defeat in August's first round vote. A La Paz-based analyst noted that the rightward swing fits a pattern of Bolivian voters becoming frustrated with the status quo and embracing the opposite political extreme roughly every 20 years.

COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,748/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $114,876 •Cobalt: $42,725/ton •Copper: $10,518/ton •Ethereum: $4,155 •Gold: $4,076/toz •Lead: $2,021/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.09/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $59.98/barrel •Zinc: $3,002/ton

GAZA •Hamas released the last 20 living hostages in Gaza, in exchange for Israel's commitment to return about 2,000 Palestinian prisoners later today. •Pres. Trump was in Israel to celebrate the hostages' return, which came about because of the 20-point ceasefire deal Trump proposed and successfully pitched to both sides. •The hostage-prisoner swap was only the first phase of Trump's plan - and arguably the most straightforward part of it. •Next, Trump will travel to Egypt, where he'll attend a summit to solidify the trickier next phases of the deal, including a path toward a decisive truce and a plan for administering Gaza after the war.

CHINA •Cryptocurrencies and stocks fell on Friday - and gold rose - after Pres. Trump revived his threat to slap 100% tariffs on Chinese goods in retaliation for China's announcement of new export controls on rare earths last week. •Beijing's announcement surprised Trump, who called its timing "especially inappropriate" for stealing the spotlight from Trump's successful peace-dealing between Israel and Hamas. •An incensed Trump threatened to call off his upcoming - but still unconfirmed - meeting with China's Pres. Xi at an Asia-Pacific summit in South Korea later this month, saying "there seems to be no reason" to meet Xi now. •Separately, a new NYT report focused on a massive high-altitude solar project China has built on the Tibetan Plateau (see https://t.co/bKZpG0t8kl), and included an impressive statistic that illustrates the scale of China's solar ambitions: on average, China has added new solar panels with power-generating capacity equivalent to that of the immense Three Gorges Dam every three weeks during 2025.

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