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120 direct mentions across 120 briefings, with 223 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
The tariff warning is intended to obtain early Canadian concessions and reduce Ottawa’s negotiating room when U.S.-Canada-Mexico trade talks resume.
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The tariff warning is intended to obtain early Canadian concessions and reduce Ottawa’s negotiating room when U.S.-Canada-Mexico trade talks resume.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Donald Trump dossier
156 mapped developments across 32 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Taiwan
Donald Trump accused Taiwan of taking the U.S. semiconductor industry and argued that Taiwan should pay for U.S. protection. A 2.4% decline in TSMC shares amid concern about future U.S. support.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
1 supporting public source attached
Chronology
Off Leash update 21 July 2026 NICARAGUA •Nicaragua's leftist president, Daniel Ortega, announced plans to officially abolish elections rather than bother to hold another sham poll - like the one he oversaw in 2021 - when elections are due next year. •Instead, Ortega will tighten his authoritarian grip on Nicaraguan politics and further consolidate power for himself and his co-president, Rosario Murillo - a poet whose main qualification to hold office is being married to Ortega. •The Trump administration has mostly turned a blind eye to Ortega's increasingly blatant power grabs, despite Ortega's leftist politics and friendliness with China. Abolishing elections could give the U.S. a reason to treat Nicaragua to the same sort of pressure campaigns it's mounting on Cuba and Venezuela. Once again proof that you can vote in socialism but have to shoot your way out. CHINA •Chinese and Filipino sailors fought a brief sea battle worthy of a Viking war painting near the disputed Second Thomas Shoal yesterday, striking each other with oars and batons and leaving one Filipino sailor with a head injury. •As usual, both sides claimed the other provoked the skirmish and summoned the other side's ambassador for a dressing down. •The timing is awkward this time, since the incident will certainly become a hot topic at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit that started today. China, the Philippines, the U.S., and Australia are all sending their top diplomats, and the U.S. and Australia have already issued statements supporting the Philippines' side and condemning China as the aggressor. YEMEN •Encouraged by Iran, Yemen's Houthi rebels announced a blockade on Saudi Arabian ships - or ships carrying Saudi exports - transiting through Bab al Mandeb. •The Houthis are inaccurately portraying their blockade as a meaningful one that will choke off Saudi's last remaining export route while Iran blocks Saudi exports through the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts suggest that depiction is intended for the Houthi's domestic audience, who don't know that Saudi can evade the blockade by exporting from its western ports north through the Suez Canal. UK •Andy Burnham - the UK's new prime minister, as of yesterday - promptly named his cabinet. •Burnham surprised analysts by choosing John Healey - who resigned as Sir Kier Starmer's defence minister last month after complaining about insufficient defence spending - as the new chancellor of the exchequer. Healey will now be responsible for tough spending choices like the defence cuts he railed against. INDIA •Youth-led protests rocked Delhi yesterday, and police responded forcefully, injuring at least 180 demonstrators. The movement - playfully dubbed the Cockroach Janta Party - demands education reform, including the resignation of India's education minister following exam scandals that happened on his watch. TRADE •Pres. Trump threatened 50% tariffs on symbolic Canadian imports like hockey equipment and down jackets, but gave Canada 30 days to right the perceived wrongs that sparked Trump's ire. In particular, Trump wants the eight of 10 Canadian provinces that banned imports of U.S.-made alcohol last year to repeal their bans. •Analysts suggest Trump's new tariff threat is a tactic to force Canada into making concessions early so it has less room to negotiate when U.S.-Canada-Mexico trade talks resume.
Open source reportOff Leash update 20 July 2026 COMING UP THIS WEEK •Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burhnam is set to become the next British prime minister today. •Tomorrow, Lebanon's Pres. Aoun will become the first Lebanese president in almost 20 years to visit the White House. •The Commonwealth Games start Thursday in Glasgow, and Comic-Con runs from Thursday through Sunday in San Diego, California. •On Friday, Pres. Trump will attend a rescheduled White House Press correspondents' dinner. Security will be tight to prevent another incident like the shooting that derailed the first dinner. •The 113th Tour de France ends Sunday on the Champs-Élysées in Paris. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,151/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $35,176/ton •Bitcoin: $64,220 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $13,526/ton •Ethereum: $1,863 •Gold: $4,021/toz •Lead: $1,883/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.86/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $82.74/barrel •Zinc: $3,526/ton IRAN •Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) said that two oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz via the southern route Iran has called "unsafe" and warned ships not to use were - passive voice intentional - "exploded and were forced to cease movement." The IRGC didn't explicitly say it fired on the imperiled tankers, but nobody else is striking ships along the southern route that the U.S. Navy is trying to secure. •At least three U.S. soldiers were killed in combat over the weekend: two died in an Iranian missile attack on a U.S. base in Jordan that left another serviceman missing, and one died during a botched operation to defuse a downed Iranian drone in northern Iraq. •U.S. SecState Rubio says the U.S. is still open to negotiating with Iran, and there are limited signs of ongoing diplomacy. But discreet peace talks are getting much less airtime than the nine straight nights of airstrikes the U.S. has carried out on Iranian infrastructure (and Iran's retaliatory attacks on regional allies of the U.S.). •The NYT, citing analysts, warned that infrastructure strikes and U.S. casualties represent an escalation that could prove hard to walk back from. YEMEN •Indeed, Iran reportedly called on its proxy in Yemen, the Houthis, to help ignite a regional conflict by closing the Bab al Mandeb maritime chokepoint if the U.S. strikes Iran's power grid. •The Houthis recently reopened a long-frozen conflict with Saudi Arabia, and seem ready to join their sponsor's side in a regional war. LEBANON •Lebanon's Pres. Aoun will use his meeting with Pres. Trump tomorrow to seek Trump's help pressuring Israel to make good on its commitment to withdraw from two "pilot zones" in southern Lebanon so the Lebanese Army can assume control of them. •That's the first step in a U.S.-backed agreement signed June 26 to end fighting between Israel and Hezbollah. Aoun will then want further U.S. (and international - but not Israeli) help to disarm Hezbollah. UKRAINE •Ukraine struck two warehouses belonging to the Russian online retailer Wildberries. Pres. Zelensky said the warehouses were being used to "supply sanctioned components for drone production and navigation equipment." •They're also symbolic targets for Ukraine's efforts to disrupt daily Russian life and bring the war home to Russians, whose president has sought to isolate them from the effects of the conflict. •Russia responded with one of the largest bombardments yet on Kyiv. The Russian barrage is likely to amplify Zelensky's calls for more Patriot missiles to defend against future such strikes. UK •Andy Burnham - who will become the UK's next prime minister today . •He faces tough challenges governing at the national level. He'll want to maintain good ties with the U.S. and Pres. Trump, make plans to revive Britain's sluggish economy, and ease a fractious debate about immigration.
Open source reportOff Leash update 17 July 2026 UKRAINE •Ukraine's former defense minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, isn't taking his sacking quietly. Nor were the thousands of his supporters who turned out to protest his firing. •Fedorov spoke out against Ukraine's top general, Oleksandr Syrskyi, accusing the commander in chief of "blocking all of our initiatives" and complaining that "instead of figuring out how to defeat Russia asymmetrically...hefigured out how to split the country." •Fedorov and Syrskyi clashed over Federov's efforts to modernize the military, despite the success of innovations like drone technology that he introduced. Protesters are now calling for Syrskyi to be removed instead. IRAN •U.S. airstrikes targeted infrastructure in Iran - including an airport, a train station, and several bridges - and Iran hit back at U.S. military targets in Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and (for the first known time) Syria. •Iran said the Syrian strike on a U.S. special operations command center in al Tanf was in retaliation for U.S. strikes that killed Iranian soldiers in Iranshahr. There were no U.S. casualties; the U.S. withdrew troops from al Tanf in February (probably at Pres. al Sharaa's request: al Sharaa doesn't want to get involved in the U.S.-Iran war). CHINA •In a televised address, Pres. Trump accused China of stealing voter files on about 220 million Americans and using them to influence the 2020 election in Joe Biden's favor. China vehemently denied Trump's claim, saying it "has never and will never interfere in the presidential elections of the U.S." •Shortly after Trump's address, China's leader, Xi Jinping, struck a much more friendly tone at the AI conference he's hosting in Shanghai: "With AI advancing at a staggering speed, we must ensure its development is for positive, for good, and for humanity." VENEZUELA •A CIA analysis of almost 20 years of intelligence on Venezuelan elections concluded that Venezuelan officials had "some capability in manipulating electronic voting systems" to alter up to 1.5 million votes in the country's elections since 2012. •The report cautioned that there was no definitive evidence that the Maduro regime pulled off "large-scale electronic fraud" this way (Nicolas Maduro had other ways of rigging elections in his favor, like bullying the opposition out of challenging him in polls). It also clarified that there was no evidence that Maduro's regime had any ability to influence elections in other countries using Smartmatic machines.
Open source reportOff Leash update 16 July 2026 IRAN •The U.S. carried out more strikes on Iran, including one that debilitated an empty tanker heading to Kharg Island to load oil. Iran hit back with strikes on U.S. military bases in Bahrain and Kuwait. •Iran responded to Pres. Trump's threats to strike Iranian infrastructure with an ominous warning that it would retaliate in kind and "all infrastructure in the region will be crushed under steel blows.” •Still, Iran's chief negotiator, Parliament Speaker Brig. Gen. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, signaled openness to "diplomacy and negotiations" - in addition to war - in an address to the nation. •Ghalibaf is one of the more moderate voices in Iran's leadership, and he faces resistance - and even physical attacks - from hardliners who despise the idea of negotiating with the enemy. Immediately after Ghalibaf's televised address, a foreign ministry spokesman denied that Iran had any intention of resuming talks. •Meanwhile, an internal Pentagon estimate concluded that the total cost of the Iran war could reach $80 to $100 billion - far higher than the public estimate of $31 billion, which omitted many of the costs of indirectly supporting the operation. UKRAINE •Pres. Zelensky sacked his defense minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, after just six months. Insiders say the 35-year-old leader of Ukraine's game-changing drone program clashed with older generals in his ministry and established defense contractors who resented his innovative approach to warfare. HONG KONG •Authorities in Hong Kong raided independent bookstores yesterday, seizing books with "seditious content" - reportedly including a biography of jailed pro-democracy tycoon Jimmy Lai - and arresting five booksellers for stocking content "with seditious intention." •This was the third recent round of raids on independent bookstores in Hong Kong, and part of a broader crackdown on dissent enabled by a draconian 2024 national security law that punishes "seditious intention" with up to seven years imprisonment. VENEZUELA •Venezuela's interim government announced that it will begin talks with the opposition, with the goal of "strengthening democracy." The government is floundering for legitimacy after botching its response to devastating twin earthquakes, and it probably hopes the opposition will have some better governance ideas. •The opposition's popular leader, Maria Corina Machado, will not lead talks with the government. She remains in exile - though the U.S. is now encouraging the interim government to welcome her back to Venezuela.
Open source reportOff Leash update 15 July 2026 IRAN •On Pres. Trump's orders, the U.S. military opened a new round of hostilities with Iran focused on breaking Iran's chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. airstrikes targeted dozens of sites linked to Iran's coastal defenses and attack boats, and U.S. warships resumed a military blockade of Iran's ports. •Trump also revived his use of ultimatums to threaten Iran back to the negotiating table, warning that he would order the destruction of Iran's power plants and bridges if its leaders don't "get to the table and negotiate." •On the other hand, Trump walked back his announced plan to levy fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, saying that Gulf countries - who would've borne the brunt of a fee - have instead committed to investing in the U.S. •Oil suppliers seem to think the conflict will drag on. They're doubling down on efforts to develop alternative routes to market that bypass the Strait. Dubai-based port operator DP World, for one, announced plans to build a new port and container terminal on UAE's east coast, outside of the Strait. •These alternate routes could come into use fairly quickly. Goldman Sachs estimates that current and planned pipelines and export infrastructure will be able to carry over 45% of pre-war Gulf oil export volumes by the end of 2027, and over 60% by the end of 2028. UK •A new UK inquiry found Iran indirectly responsible for a spate of arson and vandalism attacks blamed on one of its proxies, the Islamic Movement of the Companions of the Right (ICMR), and declared Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) to be a national security threat. •Parliament will vote on whether to ban the ICMR and IRGC later this week. If MPs approve bans, it would raise the stakes for members of the ICMR doing Iran's bidding, since committing sabotage on behalf of a banned group is punishable by up to life imprisonment - as opposed to far more lenient sentences for those convicted of the same crimes without a link to a banned group. YEMEN •Yemen's Houthis readily heeded Saudi Arabia's call to arms and declared the "de-escalation phase" of their war over after four years of fragile peace. •Analysts worry about the renewed conflict in southern Arabia spilling over into a broader regional conflict, with the Houthis on Iran's side targeting Gulf countries from the south while Iran lashes out at them from the east. [That was probably Saudi Crown Prince MBS's concern as well when he asked Pres. Trump to condone the strikes that reignited war with the Houthis.] CHINA •New data showed that China's economy grew just 4.3% between Q2 2025 and Q2 2026. It was China's slowest GDP growth rate since 2022 and fell short of the government's target of 4.5-5.0%. The war in Iran and weak domestic demand and investment held growth back, while a rise in tech exports dampened the drag on growth.
Open source reportOff Leash update 9 July 2026 IRAN •The U.S. and Iran traded strikes for a second day. The U.S. has struck at least 170 military targets in Iran in the latest flare-up, while Iran said it targeted U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. •Pres. Trump declared the temporary ceasefire "over," but a return to full-scale conflict is probably the worst of his all-bad options. •He could choose peace, but any ceasefire deal Iran would agree to would be on its terms, leaving Trump with nothing to show for the estimated $113 billion that U.S. taxpayers have spent on the war so far. Trump is more likely to choose an awkward middle option, with a fragile peace punctuated by occasional skirmishes like this week's. •Iran's leaders are conflicted, too. Relative moderates like Pres. Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi favor negotiating peace, but hardliners are blocking their path. This week, supporters of a hardline faction physically attacked Pezeshkian and Araghchi while shouting "death to the appeasers." •Separately, the NYT reported that the masses mourning former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei were not entirely orchestrated by the government. Many Iranians the visiting journalists interviewed "had come voluntarily to express their grief and, above all, their defiance," and blamed the U.S. and Israel - as opposed to their own repressive leaders - for a war that has made their lives harder. [At least that's what the reporters heard from the Iranians they were allowed to interview through government-provided translators.] UKRAINE •After meeting Pres. Zelensky on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Turkey, Pres. Trump announced that he'd agreed to let Ukraine make its own Patriot missiles. That would make Ukraine the third country - after Germany and Japan - licensed to make Patriots outside the U.S. [Germany is actively producing them; Japan has yet to exercise its license.] •Bloomberg pointed out that it will still take years - and lots of help from one of the two U.S. contractors that make Patriots, RTX and Lockheed Martin - for Ukraine to get a production line up and running. •Lockheed Martin estimates that it will take four years to triple its Patriot production capacity in the U.S., and construction time is likely to stretch far longer under Russian fire in Ukraine. That's why some experts suggested building Ukraine's Patriot factory under NATO's security shield in Poland instead. TRADE •Speaking at the NATO summit in Turkey, Pres. Trump threatened to cut off trade with Spain and its 50 million "hopeless, bad people." •Trump was overall very pleased with the NATO summit and the "tremendous love" he felt there, but he's mad at Spain's leaders for repeatedly refusing his demands to raise military spending and - more recently - refusing to let the U.S. use Spain's bases to support Trump's war in Iran. •It will be hard for the U.S. to make good on Trump's threat. First, the European Union negotiates trade matters as a bloc, and the entire bloc could retaliate against trade actions targeting one of its members. In addition, the U.S. sells more to Spain than it buys from it, so severing trade ties would harm U.S. exporters more than Spanish ones.
Open source reportOff Leash update 6 July 2026 COMING UP THIS WEEK •The Philippine Senate began an impeachment trial for Vice President Sara Duterte, who stands accused of corruption and making public threats against President Bongbong Marcos after the once-allied running mates bitterly fell out. Duterte insists the charges are politically motivated. •Iran is in the middle of a six-day, two-country funeral for slain former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The events conclude on Thursday, when Khamenei will be buried in his northeastern hometown of Mashad. •Turkey will host a NATO summit tomorrow and Wednesday. Pres. Trump plans to attend, and will likely have some gripes to express: last week he complained that it was "ridiculous" for the U.S. to continue its "one-sided" relationship with NATO. •The Paris Court of Appeal will rule on French far-right leader Marine Le Pen's appeal to overturn her conviction for misusing European funds. If the court overturns her conviction and resulting ban on holding public office, then she'll be the National Rally (RN) party's candidate in next year's presidential poll. If the court upholds her conviction, Jordan Bardella will represent the RN. •The 139th Wimbledon Championships conclude with the men's final on Sunday. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,091/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $35,245/ton •Bitcoin: $62,747 •Cobalt: $/ton •Copper: $13,367/ton •Ethereum: $1,762 •Gold: $4,143/toz •Lead: $1,892/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.23/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $68.33/barrel •Zinc: $3,541/ton IRAN •Hundreds of thousands of Iranians turned out to mourn Iran's late Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in the first days of his funeral. •It's not that Khamenei was wildly popular - in fact, he was widely disliked by the end of his reign, as Iranians increasingly blamed him for their country's economic woes and resented the brutal crackdowns his repressive security services inflicted on those who dared to criticize. •Rather, the government engineered high turnout by declaring national holidays and bribing attendees with freebies. •Khamenei's son and successor, Mojtaba, was conspicuously absent as his three brothers prayed beside their father's coffin. Mojtaba hasn't been seen in public since the Feb. 28, 2026 strike that killed his father - and reportedly maimed him. CHINA •China tested a long-range, submarine-launched ballistic missile with a "mock warhead" today - its first such test in nearly two years. •Beijing insisted the launch was just part of "routine" training and "not directed against any specific country or target," but its timing suggests it was a reaction to Australia signing a new mutual defense treaty with Fiji just hours prior. •Australia's foreign minister chastised Beijing for the test, which she called "destabilizing to the region." UKRAINE •Presidents Trump and Zelensky will meet on the sidelines of this week's NATO summit to capitalize on new momentum towards a peace deal. •After the leaders spoke by phone over the weekend, Zelensky optimistically declared: "There is a real prospect to put an end to this war, and America's resolve is decisive." We shall see. VENEZUELA •Venezuela has now tallied 3,342 deaths from twin earthquakes on June 24. Thousands are still missing, and residents are seething at the government over its slow and flaccid response to the disaster. •According to a new NYT report, residents of shoddily-built public housing are also livid with the state for ignoring - and even suppressing - years of warnings that their homes would crumble in a tremor. Last month, many did just that.
Open source reportOff Leash update 2 July 2026 UKRAINE •The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a U.S.-based thinktank, published a new analysis estimating casualties from Russia's nearly four-and-a-half years of war in Ukraine. •CSIS estimates that Ukraine has suffered 525,000 to 625,000 losses, including 125,000 to 150,000 deaths, while Russia has lost 1.4 million troops, including 450,000 killed in action (which CSIS notes is "more than four times greater than all U.S. fatalities in all wars combined since World War II, and more than nine times greater than all Soviet and Russian fatalities in all wars combined since World War II"). •CSIS also points out that the relative casualty rates have shifted dramatically in Ukraine's favor lately. While Russia lost two to three soldiers for every Ukrainian casualty for much of the war, this year it has suffered eight casualties for every one it inflicted on Ukraine. CSIS attributes the shift to Ukraine's intensified use of advanced drones, including some with AI-enabled targeting. IRAN •Qatar reported "positive progress" in indirect talks it mediated between the U.S. and Iran, but it sounds like all they really agreed on was to keep talking about the issues they still disagree on, like nuclear restrictions on Iran. •Talks are now on hold until after Iran concludes funeral ceremonies for former supreme leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed in a U.S. airstrike on February 28. •Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf - Iran's parliament speaker and lead negotiator - called for a large turnout for Khamenei's funeral spectacle "so the world knows that the noble and honorable nation of Iran will not stay silent in the face of oppression and arrogance." He also called on the U.S. and Israel to "to avoid any miscalculations" during the processions. LIBYA •U.S. State Department officials hosted visitors from two of Libya's rival governments last week: Lt. Gen. Saddam Haftar of the eastern Libyan National Army (LNA) met with SecState Rubio, and the Deputy Defense Minister of the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU) met Deputy SecState Landau (along with Pres. Trump's Special Advisor, Massad Boulos, and AFRICOM Deputy Commander Lt. Gen. Brennan). •The Atlantic Council pointed out the optics of giving the leader of an armed faction an audience with the Secretary of State but snubbing the long over stayed UN anointed representative of an "interim government." •Moreover, The Atlantic Council suggests that entertaining the LNA's claims to power "formaliz[es] the families and patronage networks that already dominate" Libyan politics and "turns managed instability into a formal settlement." TRADE •Yesterday was the deadline to renew the U.S.-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trilateral trade agreement, and - as anticipated - the U.S. opted not to lock in another 16-year term. Instead, the three neighbors will review the deal annually, giving them an opportunity to renegotiate key parts of the pact. •Pres. Trump has turned particularly critical of the deal, which he signed during his first term and once called "the fairest, most balanced, and beneficial trade agreement we have ever signed into law." He has since taken a tougher stance on trade and now hopes to squeeze more concessions from Canada and Mexico to close the U.S. trade deficit with its neighbors.
Open source reportOff Leash update 23 June 2026 IRAN •Pres. Trump declared the Strait of Hormuz "totally open" and asserted that "we took in more oil yesterday than has ever gone through the strait." Meanwhile, Iran says the Strait is closed and will remain closed until certain conditions are met (more on that below). •The reality appears to be somewhere between these extreme claims: NBC's tracker (https://t.co/NcGMsYkIeh) reported that 15 tankers transited the Strait yesterday. That's far down from the pre-war average of around 100, but a notable increase over the slow drip of tanker traffic since February. •Iran's Tasnim news agency laid out Iran's conditions for reopening the Strait. Iran wants $12 billion in frozen assets released, Israel to fully withdraw from Lebanon, and waivers issued for its oil sanctions. •The U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has already acted on one of those demands. It waived some sanctions on Iran's oil sector for 60 days. •Many other sanctions on Iran remain in place. Pres. Trump can rescind some by executive order, but others will be harder to unwind within the 60 day deadline for lifting all sanctions on Iran. OFAC will take years to delist the 1,000 Iranian entities and individuals it designated for sanctions, and Congress will need to pass amendments to lift the legally-mandated sanctions on Iran and its proxies enacted over the past 40+ years. UK •Andy Burnham is emerging as the clear favorite to replace Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, who became the sixth British Prime Minister to resign in 10 years. •Barnham is bolder and more popular than Starmer, but that doesn't guarantee he'll fare much better than his ousted predecessor. CNN explained one factor driving Western voters to churn through politicians: "[L]eaders tap voter anger to get elected and promise to restore prosperity. But once in power, they often find it impossible to fulfill their promises." CHINA •China installed a new floating platform at Scarborough Shoal, raising concerns that it's planning to build more permanent structures around the reef, which China effectively controls but which lies within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone. •The apparent provocation seemed to achieve the desired effect with Philippine Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro, who said his government's "level of concern" about China's intensifying activity in the area "is significantly higher" now. •Separately, China imposed bans on selling certain rare earth metals to 10 U.S. companies leading state initiatives to revive domestic rare earth magnet production. •The blacklisted companies occupy a part of the supply chain that's highly vulnerable to coercions like this: they rely heavily on the Chinese raw materials now being cut off. Indeed, all global magnet manufacturers do, since China supplies 90% of the world's light rare earths and 98% of its heavy rare earths. SOUTH SUDAN •South Sudan announced a date of December 22 for its long-delayed first-ever election - assuming Pres. Kiir won't find another excuse to postpone it again. •Kiir's election chief already cast doubt on plans for a December 22 poll in the very same speech in which he announced the date: he added that his office won't be able to organize an election until thorny legal issues and funding gaps are resolved. •Ongoing conflict between Kiir and his estranged First Vice President, Riek Machar, also threatens to disrupt the vote and potentially reignite the civil war they fought from 2013 to 2018. After the election announcement, Machar's SPLM-IO quickly issued an ominous warning: "Anyone coming to register voters and campaign in territories controlled by the mighty SPLM-IO, you will be a prisoner of war." GUINEA •Guinea's junta leader, Mamady Doumbouya, announced a ban on unrefined gold exports that will require all gold to be processed domestically, effective immediately. •The move was probably premature: Guinea is building a massive new refinery that will be able to process its entire annual production volume of gold, but it's not done yet. Smaller, low-tech refiners can't handle Guinea's full production rate of around 90 tons per year.
Open source reportOff Leash update 22 June 2026 COMING UP THIS WEEK •Tomorrow is the 10th anniversary of the UK's vote to leave the European Union. Economists estimate that Brexit lowered UK per capita GDP by at least 2.5% - and perhaps as much as 8.0% - without the drastic deregulation that free market Brexiteers promised would compensate for the output shortfall. Only 11% of Britons now say Brexit has made their lives better, while 43% say their lives are now worse for leaving the EU. •The World Economic Forum hosts its 17th Annual Meeting of the New Champions (aka "Summer Davos") in Dalian, China tomorrow through Thursday. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,397/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $34,397/ton •Bitcoin: $64,062 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $13,595/ton •Ethereum: $1,746 •Gold: $4,197/toz •Lead: $1,954/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.33/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $75.31/barrel •Zinc: $3,557/ton IRAN •After a brief posturing delay, U.S. and Iranian negotiators sat down in Switzerland for the first day of talks towards a lasting peace deal. •The discussions ran late into the night, and Qatari and Pakistani mediators said the two sides had made "encouraging progress" on persistent sore points like reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending Israel's war in Lebanon, but it seemed like that progress was limited to agreeing on how to talk about the touchy topics - not actually resolving any big differences. LEBANON •Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is trying to thread the needle between his hardline coalition partners - who want Israeli forces to keep striking Lebanon until the very last Hezbollah militant is dead - and Pres. Trump's pressure to end the war in Lebanon for the sake of a U.S.-Iran peace deal that Netanyahu despises. •At Trump's behest, Netanyahu agreed to restrict Israel's military to defensive actions in Lebanon, and the fragile detente appears to be holding - for now. No new strikes have been reported since the order. •That said, hawkish Israeli officials like Defense Minister Israel Katz are already stress-testing the truce by arguing that essentially all Israeli operations in Lebanon are - and always were - defensive in nature. UK •Embattled British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer finally gave in to rising calls for him to quit and tendered his resignation as the leader of the UK's Labour Party - and thus (in September) as PM. •Starmer's resignation kicks off the process to elect a new party leader, starting with a nomination period opening July 9. Labour's new leader will be named by the time parliament returns in September, at which point Starmer will hand the PM role over to his successor. •Former Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham has emerged as a leading contender to lead the Labour party, and his election to parliament last week makes him eligible to run. COLOMBIA •Conservative candidate Abelardo De La Espriella won Colombia's presidential election yesterday, with a razor-thin margin of just 1% over leftist continuity candidate Iván Cepeda. •De La Esprialla is a criminal defense lawyer with no previous political experience. That probably endeared him to Colombian voters feeling dissatisfied with incumbent leftist President Gustavo Petro's achievements.
Open source reportOff Leash update 19 June 2026 IRAN •The U.S. and Iran were due to start negotiating a final peace agreement today, but abruptly cancelled talks. •Axios reported that Iran called off the summit as a consequence of Israel's continued strikes on southern Lebanon. Iran considers Israel's fresh strikes to be a violation of the first point of the text of the memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran - the text of which was released Wednesday. •Pres. Trump is getting a lot of flak for the contents of that text. The NYT called it "basically a list of concessions to Iran with little - if anything - concrete to show for it on the U.S. side." •More unusually, the text even drew criticism from some hawkish Republicans like Sen. Bill Cassidy - who called it "the worst foreign policy blunder in decades" - and Sen. Roger Wicker - who chairs the Armed Forces Committee and fumed that the deal offers Iran juicy rewards like sanctions relief and cash "in exchange for Iran’s mere agreement to negotiate for another 60 days." •Such a resoundingly negative reaction makes me wonder if Trump will also get cold feet about moving forward with negotiations for a final peace agreement. •[Trump's team claims the text was deliberately left short and sweet so Iran's hardliners could agree to it; they say Iran agreed to tougher and more explicit commitments in back-channel talks.] UK •Popular Manchester mayor Andy Burnham easily won a key special election yesterday. The win was pivotal for Burnham because it gives him a seat in Parliament - which is a necessary requirement for being able to challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer for the leadership of the Labour Party, and thus the premiership. •Burnham stands a good chance of beating Starmer, who is deeply unpopular even within his own party and polls as the least popular British Prime Minister on record. UKRAINE AND RUSSIA •Ukraine launched another round of long-range strikes deep inside Russia yesterday, including its largest attack yet on Moscow. Pres. Zelensky said it was retaliation for Russia's strike on a historic monastery in Kyiv earlier this week: "If Ukraine burns, then your Moscow will burn as well." Russia threatened re-retaliation. •The Economist tallied some figures that show how much Kyiv has stepped up its long-range game. In the three years from 2022 through 2024, Ukraine completed a total of 338 reported strikes on targets at least 100 km from its borders, or about 120 strikes per year. Last year, it completed 658 such strikes, and it's on track to complete more than 800 this year. •Many of Ukraine's long-range strikes have targeted oil infrastructure like refineries and ports, causing damage that has reduced Russian oil refinery production by 15% between the first four months of last year and the same period this year - that's despite high oil prices, which usually stimulate more production. NIGER •Gunmen assaulted Niamey's international airport early this morning, engaging Nigerien soldiers in a half-hour gun battle that killed at least 35, including 11 soldiers and two civilians. •Al Qaeda's local affiliate, Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), claimed this morning's attack in a social media post. •That catches JNIM up with its regional rival, Islamic State - Sahel Province (ISSP), which attacked the same airport in January. JNIM and ISSP are likely to continue to stage high-impact attacks on symbolic targets as their rivalry escalates. SUDAN •The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) appears poised to launch an offensive on government-controlled El Obeid. •The RSF has beseiged the capital of North Kordofan state for 18 months, offering its civilian population a glimpse of the horrors that might unfold in a battle to control it. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights urged both sides to "stop this madness."
Open source reportOff Leash update 17 June 2026 UKRAINE •Presidents Trump and Zelensky had what Trump called a "very good" meeting on the sidelines of the G7 summit both attended in Évian, France. •Trump left the meeting pledging to do "whatever I can" to end Ukraine's war with Russia, adding that Russia "should make a deal." Zelensky has blamed his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, for putting off peace talks. •Overall, it sounds like Ukraine is moving back up the G7's agenda now that Trump's attention has refocused on it. •G7 leaders issued a joint statement recognizing Ukraine's "progress on the battlefield in recent months" and committing to send Ukraine more air defense equipment. RUSSIA •Robert Kuzovkov - a Russian painter exiled over art criticizing the Kremlin (as well as Pres. Trump and Xi Jinping) - was shot and killed in Poland. Two Belarusian men were arrested as suspects. •The Kremlin has repeatedly denied targeting dissidents, but too many Putin critics like Kuzovkov have turned up dead to blame chance. IRAN •Bloomberg News published the full text of the 14-point draft memorandum of understanding (MoU) that the U.S. and Iran already e-signed and expect to formalize on Friday. You can read it here: https://t.co/MQb4iI8wmo. •The full text is short - just one-and-a-half pages - and its language is rather vague and noncommittal. U.S. officials like Vice Pres. Vance insist it was kept deliberately ambiguous so Iran's leaders could sell it to their internal audience while agreeing to critical - but less politically palatable - specific commitments in back-channel talks. •The MoU's first point certainly seems to validate Iran's claim that the ceasefire requires Israel to stop striking Lebanon: "Iran and the United States, together with their allies in the current war, declare upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding an immediate and permanent end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon..." (emphasis added). •Israel was not party to the MoU and rejects Iran's claim that the MoU requires Israeli forces to leave Lebanon. Indeed, Israeli forces carried out fresh airstrikes on southern Lebanon today. MALI •Africa Defense Forum - AFRICOM's mouthpiece - published a new report showing that Russia's Africa Corps has been shifting its strategy in Mali after failing to deliver the security improvements Mali's junta hired them to effect. •After helplessly standing by and even retreating as jihadists overran Russian bases in April, the Russian fighters "are taking more of a backseat role" now, according to one analyst. •The Russians have shifted from northern positions to concentrate on protecting the capital, Bamako, and they're leaving Malian forces to defend the rest of the country while providing only air and intelligence support. •It's unclear how the Russian retreat will sit with the junta leaders, who have paid Wagner Group and Africa Corps almost $1 billion for their services and gotten poor results in return. Some Malian officials reportedly want to cut ties with Africa Corps.
Open source reportOff Leash update 16 June 2026 IRAN •Vice President Vance revealed that he, Pres. Trump, and Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf have already e-signed the memorandum of understanding (MoU) agreed to over the weekend. They still plan to sign the real thing on Friday in Geneva before kicking off mediated talks about the next phase of the deal, which is the 60-day period for finalizing a more detailed final agreement including limits on Iran's nuclear programs. •We still don't know what exactly is in the 14-point MoU. That worries some U.S. officials, including Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), who said he is "somewhat concerned that Iran's view of the agreement seems different than what the American negotiating team is claiming." Graham called for the release of the MoU's full text. •U.S. intelligence officials are similarly concerned that Iran's leaders won't be as agreeable in the thornier next phase of negotiations as they were in the course of negotiating this (fairly toothless) MoU. Their misgivings stem from intelligence showing that Iranian officials speak much more critically about the deal and their obligations under it when they discuss it amongst themselves than they do in front of mediators or media. ISRAEL •Even if U.S.-Iran negotiations on a final deal go smoothly, there's a risk that Israel could scupper the truce if it fails to comply with what Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says is a condition of Iran's agreement to a deal: Israel's full withdrawal from Lebanon, including the south. •Yesterday, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu defiantly vowed to keep forces in southern Lebanon "for as long as necessary." •Netanyahu is stuck in a quandary of his own making. He staked his political future on a hardline security policy focused on confronting Iran, and is now being asked by his country's only real ally - the U.S. - to back down, leaving Iran's regime in an arguably stronger position than it was pre-war. •He seems to be gambling that Iran will be willing to overlook a continued Israeli presence in Lebanon and won't scrap the U.S. peace deal over it. But he also seems to have calculated that the peace deal wouldn't survive an escalation in Israeli strikes on Iran and its proxies. •Netanyahu reportedly called off what Maj. Gen. Omer Tischler called a "broad strike sortie" on hundreds of Iranian targets last week - just one hour before the jets were due to take off, and after Netanyahu's tense phone call with Pres. Trump, in which Trump warned him against escalation. UKRAINE •G7 leaders met for a working session on Ukraine yesterday. Pres. Trump expressed hope that "maybe we could do something" about the war during the session, but the summit achieved no breakthroughs. •Pres. Zelensky, who also attended the G7 meeting, claimed that he proposed peace talks with Russia but Pres. Putin was "not ready." •Separately, the European Union (EU) formally launched the first stage of accession negotiations with Ukraine. •The process was delayed for two years because of former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's opposition to Ukrainian accession. •Orban's successor, Peter Magyar, still has concerns about how Kyiv treats its ethnic Hungarian minority, but he gave the green light for accession talks to proceed in exchange for Ukraine's commitment to strengthen ethnic Hungarians' rights. •Hungary's Magyar suggested it could take over a decade for Ukraine to achieve full EU member status. That's likely an overestimate, but - given glacial EU bureaucracy - it seems more realistic than the EU's hyperambitious target of welcoming Ukraine into the bloc as early as 2027.
Open source reportOff Leash update 15 June 2026 COMING UP THIS WEEK •France is hosting the first G7 summit since the Iran war began today through Wednesday. Pres. Trump is attending, as are the leaders of the other six G7 countries and guest nations like India, Ukraine, and the UAE. •DRC Mining Week takes place Wednesday through Friday in Lubumbashi. •The U.S. and China celebrate two very different holidays on Friday: the U.S. celebrates Juneteenth, while China celebrates the annual Dragon Boat Festival. Financial markets will be closed in both countries in observance. •Sunday is Father's Day in the U.S. and election day in Colombia, where Abelardo de la Espriella faces Iván Cepeda in a run-off for the presidency. De la Espriella - a right-wing businessman who styles himself after Pres. Trump - leads Cepeda - a left-leaning continuity candidate - in polls, but not by much. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,535/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $34,935/ton •Bitcoin: $65,603 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $13,698/ton •Ethereum: $1,718 •Gold: $4,327/toz •Lead: $1,966/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.05/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $80.39/barrel •Zinc: $3,584/ton IRAN •The U.S. and Iran agreed to a "framework" for a peace deal that would reportedly lift both of their blockades on the Strait of Hormuz and end their conflict without addressing Iran's nuclear ambitions. •The truce allows 60 days for further negotiations on the thornier issues they still dispute, like whether Iran will be allowed to keep parts of its nuclear program and whether the ceasefire extends to Lebanon. That's a short timeline: it took around 10 times as long to hammer out Iran's previous nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. •Pres. Trump told the NYT that if a new final deal can't be closed within the new framework's much shorter time horizon, "the U.S. will resume attacks on Iran and become the guardian of the Middle East, receiving 20% of the region’s profits." •Both sides seem happy to have reached an agreement, but they may be celebrating prematurely. The new deal isn't public yet and won't be signed until Friday, and American and Iranian officials are giving vastly different accounts of its terms, raising doubts as to whether they've actually agreed to anything consequential. •For example, Iranian officials claimed that the U.S. had already agreed to release $25 billion in frozen Iranian assets, while Pres. Trump portrayed the release of frozen funds as a carrot that Iran would only earn if it behaved well. •Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif - who was involved in mediating the agreement - suggested the draft still has powerful critics who he accused of waging an "incessant misinformation campaign...to sabotage the peace deal." VENEZUELA •A U.S. airstrike in Venezuela's Bolívar state killed Héctor Guerrero Flores (aka Niño Guerrero), the head of the Tren de Aragua gang that the U.S. has designated as a foreign terrorist organization. •Pres. Trump said the operation was "coordinated closely with our friends in Venezuela, with whom we are working very well." Venezuelan officials confirmed it had been a "joint operation." •It was certainly more effective than Venezuela's previous government's efforts against Guerrero. Under Nicolas Maduro's regime, corrupt prison guards took bribes to let Guerrero escape - twice - and turned a blind eye to plush improvements Guerrero made to Tocorón Prison to make his stay there more comfortable, including a zoo, nightclub, betting parlor, and swimming pool. PERU •Peru's presidential election is still too close to confidently call more than a week after polls closed. •Right-wing Keiko Fujimori has a razor-thin lead over left-wing Roberto Sanchez, who alleged there had been voting irregularities and asked for a recount. SWITZERLAND •Swiss voters rejected a proposed ballot measure to implement the world's first-ever population cap. •Unusually for an immigration-related question, pre-referendum polling estimated the actual result - 55% against vs. 45% in favor - almost perfectly. As anticipated, the measure enjoyed stronger support in rural areas than in cities and border areas. UK •The UK's Prime Minister Starmer said his government will join Australia and several other countries in introducing a social media ban for children under 16. •Starmer's office followed proper British procedure and conducted a lengthy consultation process before deciding to act. It found that 90% of the 116,000 parents who voluntarily responded to its survey supported a ban, and 85% felt social media brings more risks than benefits. •The ban is slated to start in early 2027.
Open source reportOff Leash update 12 June 2026 IRAN •Pres. Trump threatened to carry out strikes on Iran for a third straight night before abruptly calling them off with an announcement that a peace deal is "in pretty final shape" and could be signed as soon as this weekend. •Iran's state media contradicted Trump's claim and reported that "nothing is finalized" yet, but Iranian officials confirmed to Al Jazeera off the record that Iran's leaders are indeed reviewing a memorandum of understanding they received from U.S. negotiators. •Like Trump, Iran continued to make public threats while working towards a peace deal behind the scenes. State media broadcast the military's threats to target regional assets linked to Elon Musk and his companies in revenge for the key role his Starlink internet service has played in U.S. military operations against Iran. •Separately, the World Bank downgraded its global growth forecast for 2026 from 2.6% to 2.5%, blaming energy supply disruptions caused by the Iran war. Likewise, the UK reported its first monthly economic contraction since August, citing the effect of the war on output. UK •UK defence minister John Healey unexpectedly resigned yesterday, citing Prime Minister Starmer's failure to adequately invest in the military: "I am being forced to make decisions that would reduce the readiness of our forces and increase the risk to personnel on operations, and could make the country less safe." SWITZERLAND •Switzerland is putting a unique question to a vote on Sunday, with a referendum on whether to enact a population cap. •If passed, the measure would oblige the government to act - e.g. by sharpening asylum and family unification rules or ending free movement across borders with the European Union - once the country's population reaches 10 million (vs. 9.1 million today). •Polling suggests Swiss voters are roughly split on the idea, with slightly more against it than for it. But experts say polls often misjudge support for immigration-related proposals. SOUTH KOREA •Ousted South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and his former defense minister were each sentenced to 30 years in prison for ordering provocative drone flights into North Korea in 2024. Prosecutors argued that Yoon ordered the incursions to stir trouble with Pyongyang and justify his declaration of martial law. •Yoon is already jailed on other charges including rebellion, for which prosecutors had sought the death penalty. Yoon is appealing his convictions. AFGHANISTAN •Afghanistan's Taliban enforcers detained at least 30 women in Herat over alleged "noncompliance" with its strict female dress rules. A local witness told Human Rights Watch that "All the women were wearing hijabs, but the style did not meet their [the police’s] preferences." •The arrests sparked protests that security forces met with excessive force, killing a child and beating up dozens of demonstrators.
Open source reportOff Leash update 11 June 2026 IRAN •The U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes again overnight, and Pres. Trump threatened to continue to hit Iran "hard" today because its leaders were taking "too long to negotiate." Iran's Pres. Pezeshkian retorted that Iran "will stand firm against any pressure or threat." •The U.S. also fired on the Settebello, an Indian-crewed oil tanker that had allegedly "violated the ongoing blockade by attempting to transport oil from Iran." Three Indian sailors are missing and 21 others were rescued following the strike. •Iran says the Strait of Hormuz is "completely closed" and claims it is actively targeting ships that try to defy its blockade. •U.S. officials don't consider the Strait closed: Pres. Trump says U.S. vessels have helped tankers carrying a cumulative total of 100 million barrels of oil through the Strait. •Experts suggest around two million barrels of oil are leaking through the Strait per day, which is around one-seventh the pre-war volume that passed through daily but still a decent rate. That's perhaps why oil prices have remained lower than analysts thought they'd be after a prolonged blockade. NORTHERN IRELAND •A stabbing attack blamed on a Sudanese-born man ignited anti-immigrant riots and racist retaliation in Belfast. •Police are using baton rounds and water cannons in an effort to restrain an angry minority" that used the stabbing as an excuse to engage in opportunistic racist violence and arson. SOUTH AFRICA •Anti-immigrant campaigners called for all undocumented immigrants in South Africa to leave the country by June 30, and - unsettled by the memory of the attacks that followed similar prior eviction notices - thousands are heeding the call to return home. •Nigerians are the largest contingent of undocumented immigrants in South Africa, comprising around a quarter of the estimated 2.2 million total. Around 1,000 have voluntarily returned to Nigeria. RUSSIA •A senior Russian military officer (whose name has yet to be released) was killed by a car bomb outside Moscow on Tuesday. Ukrainian agents or sympathizers were likely responsible, but Ukraine declined to comment on the incident. DRC •DRC's National Assembly quietly passed a bill that paves the way for a referendum to alter the constitution so Pres. Tshisekedi can run for a third term. Lacking the numbers to block the measure from passing, the opposition boycotted the vote in protest.
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 June 2026 IRAN AND ISRAEL •The U.S. and Iran exchanged another round of strikes, but - as in other recent flare-ups - both sides exercised a modicum of restraint and justified their attacks as exact retaliation for specific incidents in an effort to uphold the broader ceasefire. •First, a U.S. AH-64 Apache helicopter went down near the Strait of Hormuz. Both pilots were rescued, but Pres. Trump blamed Iran for downing the gunship and ordered strikes against air defense and radar sites in southern Iran in retaliation. •Then Iran re-retaliated with drone attacks on U.S. military sites in the region, including U.S. Navy assets in Bahrain and a U.S. base in Jordan. •Iran accused the U.S. of "undermining" the fragile ceasefire, but neither side seems eager to abandon the truce or diplomatic negotiations, which Trump said Monday were "two or three days" away from reaching an agreement. •So the fragile detente holds, although - as The Economist noted - "the more the ceasefire is tested, the more likely it is to collapse entirely." UKRAINE •The European Union (EU) proposed a number of new measures to penalize Russia for its war in Ukraine. One idea would bar Russian soldiers and veterans who served in Ukraine from ever entering the EU; another would maintain the low $44 per barrel cap on Russian oil through 2027. This is the EU's 21st package of sanctions on Russia since the war began. PAKISTAN •Pakistan carried out another round of cross-border airstrikes inside Afghanistan that Islamabad claimed killed at least 26 Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan militants in three Afghan provinces. Afghanistan said the strikes killed at least 13 civilians, including 11 children. •Despite flare-ups like this, the neighboring countries are still technically observing a tenuous ceasefire that China helped mediate in March. NORTH KOREA •China's Xi Jinping concluded two days of meetings with Kim Jong Un in North Korea. State media stuck to their orders and celebrated vague pleasantries without divulging any real insight into what Xi and Kim discussed. •Analysts instead honed in on what was omitted from state media reports: Xi said nothing about North Korea's nuclear program - even though Pres. Trump claimed after his meeting with Xi last month that the two had agreed to work towards denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula. •One analyst suggested that Xi's avoidance of the nuclear topic with Kim suggests that Beijing has made "a very significant policy change to tacitly accept the reality of a nuclear North Korea" for the sake of maintaining strong bilateral relations with Pyongyang. EUROPE •Germany pulled out of the Future Combat Air System, a planned project to build a European fighter jet with France and Spain. •The project had been on life support after two French aviation majors - Dassault and Airbus - publicly disagreed over how to manage it, and Berlin's departure will probably be the long-anticipated death knell for the program, since France and Spain probably don't have the funding (or political will) to continue without Germany's support.
Open source reportOff Leash update 9 June 2026 COMING UP THIS WEEK •Apple's annual Worldwide Developers' Conference (WWDC) kicked off yesterday. This is Tim Cook's last WWDC as CEO of Apple; investors will want to hear what the company is doing to catch up to its tech rivals' advancements in artificial intelligence. •Yesterday was World Oceans Day, which Mercator Ocean International commemorated by releasing its annual Starfish Barometer report on ocean health. This year's report found that sea levels rose by an average of 4.2 mm per year between 2012 and 2025 - almost double the rate of the previous decade. •China's Pres. Xi wraps up a two-day visit to North Korea today. The fact that Xi is visiting Kim Jong Un - and not the other way around - exemplifies the geopolitical clout Kim has achieved by forging stronger ties with Russia over Ukraine: Kim is no longer solely dependent on China, and Xi needs to treat Kim more like an equal than he did before Kim cozied up to Pres. Putin. •The FIFA Men's World Cup kicks off Thursday with a match between South Africa and co-host Mexico. Games will be played at various locations in Canada, Mexico, and the U.S., culminating in a July 19 final expected to take place at MetLife Stadium outside of New York City. •The NBA finals are also taking place this week. After last night's game, the New York Knicks are leading the San Antonio Spurs 2-1. The next games will be played tomorrow and Saturday, with additional games slated for next Tuesday and Friday if neither team has reached the four wins they need to take the series. It's the first time in 27 years that the Knicks have reached the finals. •The 94th edition of the 24 Hours of Le Mans endurance race takes place Saturday to Sunday in northwest France. •Pres. Trump turns 80 on Sunday and will (unofficially) mark the milestone by hosting UFC Freedom 250 on the White House lawn. The event will feature two co-main events: a lightweight title fight between Ilia Topuria and Justin Gaethje, and a heavyweight bout between Alex Pereira and Ciryl Gane for the interim title. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,604/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $35,538/ton •Bitcoin: $62,685 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $13,616/ton •Ethereum: $1,670 •Gold: $4,332/toz •Lead: $1,990/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.18/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $88.97/barrel •Zinc: $3,537/ton IRAN AND ISRAEL •Israel and Iran returned to war for about 15 hours, until Pres. Trump pulled Prime Minister Netanyahu back from the brink with another tense phone call. •Trump reportedly told Netanyahu that U.S. negotiators were within days of a breakthrough on nuclear talks with Iran, and would lose the opportunity to seal a lasting deal if Israel and Iran continued to exchange fire. •Iran readily agreed to pause strikes, too, but warned that it was ready to resume if Israel broke its side of the detente. (Except, apparently, in southern Lebanon, where Israeli strikes continued.) •The latest volley apparently started after Israel targeted Hezbollah sites in Lebanon. That Iran retaliated for strikes against its foreign proxies by firing directly at Israel - and ordering another of its proxies, the Houthis in Yemen, to join the fray and fire at Israel, too - shows how Iran sees its proxies' wars against Israel as an integrated part of its broader conflict. The extra dimensions that adds to truce talks will make it harder to reach a durable deal. ARMENIA •Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's pro-Western Civil Contract Party won re-election on Sunday...unless you ask the Russian media, who were instructed to portray the result - in which Civil Contract won 49.8% of the vote - as a loss for Pashinyan and highlight alleged voting irregularities. •Moscow resents Pashinyan's efforts to shift Armenia closer to Europe, and meddled in the election by banning key Armenian import categories to demonstrate the economic perks Armenia would lose if it swapped Russian suppliers for European ones. Pres. Putin pointedly warned Armenians last month that "the crisis in Ukraine began with efforts to move toward EU accession." CHINA •The U.S. Department of War added dozens of Chinese companies - including carmaker BYD and internet giants Baidu and Alibaba - to its list of firms linked to the Chinese military. The Pentagon considers listed firms to be national security threats and bars the U.S. military from doing business with them. •The companies emphatically denied having any military links, and the Chinese government criticized their blacklisting, calling it a pretext to protect American companies from strong Chinese rivals.
Open source reportOff Leash update 3 June 2026 IRAN •The U.S. struck Iran's Qeshm Island in retaliation for Iranian fire that downed an American MQ-1 Reaper drone, and Iran fired drones and missiles at Kuwait and Bahrain. •Kuwait said several drone strikes hit its airport, injuring at least 63 people and damaging the main terminal building, and these were Iran's first strikes on Bahrain since the temporary U.S.-Iran ceasefire went into effect almost two months ago. •Despite the exchanges of fire, Pres. Trump says peace talks are still "going on." RUSSIA •Ukraine launched over 350 drones into Russia to menace several major cities, including Moscow, Novgorod, and St. Petersburg - where an economic forum dubbed "Putin's Davos" was underway. •Russia said it intercepted the vast majority of the incoming drones, but it still reported several injuries and extensive damage to infrastructure. GUINEA •Guinea's massive Simandou mine almost doubled its iron ore exports in May compared to April, exporting 2.2 million tons through Morebaya port in May against 1.3 million tons in April. •The project - which sent its first ore to China just six months ago - has been ramping up quickly: April's total exports were more than double the 0.6 million tons shipped in the first three months of the year. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE •Pres. Trump signed an executive order asking technology companies to voluntarily give the U.S. government pre-release oversight of their new artificial intelligence models. •That's a looser requirement than Trump had initially planned to impose: a previous executive order would have mandated a 90-day government review period for new models, but that idea was scrapped last month. The new voluntary measure still imposes more oversight than tech companies currently face - if they opt in, that is. TRADE •The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative proposed new tariffs of 10-12.5% on 60 trading partners - including Canada, China, Japan, and several European Union member states - over their failure to ban exports of goods made with forced labor. •That was the stated justification, anyway. A less-touted second rationale is to replace the Liberation Day tariffs that the U.S. Supreme Court struck down with new levies on a sounder legal basis. EBOLA •The World Health Organization said it had overestimated suspected Ebola cases in eastern DRC and Uganda by a lot: hundreds of the 906 suspected cases it estimated last week were ruled out, leaving its new estimate with just 116 suspected cases and 330 confirmed cases. •Despite the positive revision, front-line medical workers still face challenges containing the outbreak, which was identified late. Test kits and protective gear are in short supply, and it's hard to distribute more because of ongoing conflict and weak state control in the region.
Open source reportOff Leash update 2 June 2026 LEBANON AND IRAN •After a call with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, Pres. Trump said Israel and Hezbollah had agreed to pause strikes and work towards a longer-term ceasefire. •Netanyahu portrayed it slightly differently: without admitting that he'd agreed to Pres. Trump's request to observe a ceasefire with Hezbollah, Netanyahu said that if Hezbollah resumes strikes, then Israel will, too. He added that the Israeli military "will continue to operate as planned in southern Lebanon" - i.e., it will only scale back its strikes around Beirut. •Several media reports suggested that Trump was motivated to intervene with Netanyahu by an ultimatum from Iran, which threatened to abandon indirect talks with the U.S. over ending the Iran war if Israel continued to strike its proxies in Lebanon. •Separately, the NYT reported that Israel didn't anticipate Hezbollah's use of first-person view drones to target its troops, and has had to re-think its strategy in southern Lebanon to account for the drone threat: "It is now a kind of deadlock in which Hezbollah suddenly looks more capable than it did when the war began and the soldiers of the Israel Defense Forces can look startlingly helpless." CHINA •According to a new report by Wirescreen, China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) repeatedly tried to buy Nvidia's cutting-edge AI chips from at least 2019 to 2025 - even after the U.S. restricted chip sales to foreign rivals like China. [Wirescreen wasn't able to confirm whether the PLA actually received or is using any Nvidia chips.] •Nvidia has long downplayed concerns about the PLA - or China's surveillance state - relying on its chips, and a spokesman reiterated that sentiment in reaction to the latest report: "China has more than enough domestic chips for all of its military applications, with millions to spare. Just like it would be nonsensical for the American military to use Chinese technology, it makes no sense for the Chinese military to depend on American technology.” UKRAINE •Russia launched one of its biggest recent assaults on Ukraine overnight, targeting several cities and killing at least 17. More are likely trapped under rubble. •The Kremlin had warned of an impending barrage for over a week before it finally launched the attack. Some analysts think the early warnings were intended to inflict a psychological toll on Ukrainians who have spent recent days on high alert, with many sleeping in subway stations or parking lots for safety. •The Economist explained why Russia has turned to targeting Ukrainian cities: "Struggling to advance on the front line, Russia has in recent months stepped up its attacks on civilian areas." RUSSIA •Bloomberg reported that senior Russian Finance Ministry officials have raised rising alarm over the unsustainable pace of defense spending, and proposed military cuts to freeze the yawning government fiscal deficit. •Defense Ministry officials vehemently oppose the idea of cutting war spending, and are even asking for more military funding. According to Bloomberg, some argue that so many Russian businesses rely on defense contracts that cuts would harm the economy. •Several officials said Pres. Putin has asked the Finance Ministry to find cuts in other parts of the budget before resorting to defense cuts, but sanctions and four years of war have already weighed heavily on government spending and there's not much fat left to trim.
Open source reportOff Leash update 1 June 2026 COMING UP THIS WEEK •Ethiopia votes in parliamentary elections today. Abiy Ahmed's ruling Prosperity Party is sure to win, since large parts of the rebellious regions of Amhara and Tigray won't vote and Abiy's strongest rivals have been sidelined or jailed. •The Oslo Freedom Forum - Human Rights Foundation's annual summit - starts today. This year's speakers include Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado and actor Richard Gere, who played a victim of human rights abuses in Red Corner and Bent (and is also an established rights advocate off-screen). •Saturday is the 82nd anniversary of D-Day. •Sunday is a big day for elections: Armenia and Kosovo vote in parliamentary polls, and Peru votes in a run-off presidential election. In Peru, right-wing candidate Keiko Fujimori has a narrow polling lead over leftist candidate Roberto Sanchez. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,667/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $35,474/ton •Bitcoin: $72,614 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $13,636/ton •Ethereum: $1,982 •Gold: $4,510/toz •Lead: $2,016/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.33/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $90.40/barrel •Zinc: $3,540/ton COLOMBIA •Far-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella won the first round of Colombia's presidential election, but with less support than he needed to win the presidency outright. He'll face far-left candidate Iván Cepeda in a run-off on June 21. •President Petro - who backed Cepeda - rejected the result, citing (but not substantiating) irregularities. IRAN •Iran and the U.S. traded strikes over the weekend, but continued to exercise restraint: the U.S. said its strikes were in "self-defense," and Iran said it was merely retaliating against the U.S. strikes. •Several reports suggested that Pres. Trump sent a draft agreement back to Iran with some proposed changes to Iran's offer, but other accounts suggest there isn't much room to negotiate between the two sides' demands. •U.S. ships have reportedly quietly escorted around 70 commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz in the past three weeks. That's an approximate figure, since the U.S.-guided passages have been "dark," with transponders turned off, and probably hugging the Omani coast to stay as far as possible from Iranian fire. It corresponds to an average of about three vessels per day, which is far short of the 100 per day that transited the Strait pre-war. RUSSIA •The French Navy intercepted and boarded a sanctioned and false-flagged Russian oil tanker, the Tagor, in international waters about 400 nautical miles west of Brittany. •Pres. Macron justified the seizure in a post on X: "It is unacceptable for ships to circumvent international sanctions, violate the law of the sea, and fund the war that Russia has been waging against Ukraine for more than four years." It was the fourth time the French Navy has boarded a Russian "shadow fleet" tanker since Sep. 2025. •The Kremlin complained about the "illegal" seizure, which it said was "bordering on international piracy." VENEZUELA •The AP reported on emerging rifts in interim President Delcy Rodriguez's government, with longtime Maduro loyalists criticizing Rodriguez's reforms. They particularly object to her deportation of close Maduro ally Alex Saab to face trial in the U.S., and her authorization for U.S. forces to conduct training in Caracas. •Andrés Izarra - who served as communications minister under Hugo Chavez and tourism minister under Maduro before falling out with Maduro's cronies and fleeing into exile - said the divide isn't about Chavismo ideology, which Izarra thinks died with its founder in 2013. Rather, "since there is no ideological foundation, it is simply a struggle for power, money, positions, and survival."
Open source reportOff Leash update 29 May 2026 IRAN •The U.S. and Iran have reportedly reached a deal to extend the current temporary ceasefire for 60 days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz while they negotiate the thornier nuclear issues they still disagree on. •Pres. Trump has yet to sign off on the new framework, but wrote on Truth Social that he's close to making a "final determination" on it. Vice Pres. Vance said Trump still had issues with "a couple of language points" in the new draft that were holding up his decision. •In fact, it sounds like they're still far apart on several basic aspects of the proposed deal. For one, Trump said the deal calls for Iran to "immediately open" the Strait of Hormuz to unrestricted traffic, while Iranian state media insisted that "no such clause in the text of the agreement." •Another discrepancy is over money. Trump asserted that "No money will be exchanged, until further notice," while Iranian state media said "the most important part of the agreement” is “the immediate payment of $12 billion of Iran’s frozen assets." ISRAEL •Iran also insists that the temporary ceasefire currently in place covers the wars that Iranian proxies - Hezbollah and Hamas - are fighting with Israel. •Israel disagrees, but the fact that it has escalated its offensive strikes in recent weeks as Iran and the U.S. got closer to a deal suggests Prime Minister Netanyahu may think Pres. Trump may ask him to restrain his forces on other fronts to preserve a fragile truce with Iran. •Israel's escalation continued yesterday and today. The Israeli military struck targets in southern Beirut for the first time in weeks, and Netanyahu also ordered his military to seize at least 70% of Gaza - despite the fact that doing so would violate the October ceasefire agreement, in which Israel agreed to limit its occupation of the territory to just over half its area. RUSSIA •A drone - allegedly Russian - struck an apartment building in Galati, Romania, injuring two people. •European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen complained that the incursion "crossed yet another line," and Romania's Foreign Minister mused about invoking NATO's Article 4, which opens a discussion about threats to a NATO member's security. Article 4 is a step below Article 5, which requires all NATO members to come to the defense of any member under attack.
Open source reportOff Leash update 22 May 2026 IRAN •Pres. Trump said he delayed a "very major attack" against Iran that was planned for Tuesday to allow ongoing "serious negotiations" to play out, after the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE asked him for more time to try to secure a deal that addresses Iran's nuclear program. •It's not clear how serious the ongoing negotiations truly are. Most media reports suggest that Iran's latest counterproposal was essentially identical to the previous one, which Trump rejected as "garbage" after reading the first page. Iranian state media, though, said the current proposal had "narrowed the gaps." •SecState Rubio expressed very cautious optimism about "slight progress" towards a ceasefire deal with Iran, but reports that Iran and Oman are in talks about creating a tolling system for the Strait of Hormuz suggest otherwise. Rubio drew a red line with a warning that a tolling system "would make a diplomatic deal unfeasible." ISRAEL •A new Washington Post report found that the U.S. launched more interceptors (300) defending Israel against incoming attacks than Israel launched in its own defense (190). •The U.S. focused its efforts on intercepting high-altitude ballistic missiles coming from Iran, consuming over 200 Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors - or around half its pre-war THAAD arsenal - plus around 100 Standard Missile-3 and Standard Missile-6 interceptors. •Meanwhile, Israel focused on intercepting lower-altitude incoming fire from Iranian proxies - the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon - using nearly 100 Arrow 3 missiles and around 90 David Sling interceptors. •Kelly Greico - an analyst at the Stimson Center - pointed out that interceptors used for Israel's defense reduce the arsenal available for defending against other adversaries: "That bill risks coming due in theaters that have nothing to do with Iran." EBOLA •The World Health Organization (WHO) has now documented 750 suspected cases of Ebola with 177 suspected Ebola deaths in the latest outbreak, which the WHO only confirmed last weekend and has since upgraded to a "very high" risk of spread within DRC. •Public health experts believe the new Ebola outbreak confirmed in DRC and Uganda over the weekend has been raging for weeks, and will be much harder to contain because of the delay in reporting and confirming it. •This outbreak originated in DRC's insurgency-ridden Ituri province, which has been run by a military government under a "state of siege" since 2021. Public services - including health - often take a backseat to security matters, which could explain why health officials didn't sound the alarm when they first started to see patients with possible Ebola symptoms. •Testing shortfalls also delayed Ituri's outbreak response. The region's Ebola test kits only test for the most common Ebola species, Zaire, and returned negative results. It was only when regional health officials sent tissue samples to Kinshasa - apparently weeks after the first symptoms appeared - that the Bundibugyo species of Ebola was identified. CHINA •Pres. Trump told reporters he planned to speak with Taiwan's Pres. Lai Ching-te before deciding to sell arms to Taiwan. It would be the first time since 1979 that a sitting U.S. president or president-elect has spoken with the leader of Taiwan - though there have been official communications at less senior levels since then. •Beijing blamed Taiwan for the "petty action" of enticing Trump to break from precedent and engage at the highest level, but there's a good chance that Trump floated the idea with Xi Jinping when they met last week: Trump first mentioned he might reach out to Lai immediately upon returning from his summit with Xi.
Open source reportOff Leash update 15 May STRAIT OF HORMUZ •The U.S. has been lobbying China to use its influence with Iran to convince Iran to allow ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and China apparently did so successfully, winning Tehran's approval for safe passage...at least for Chinese ships. •Iranian state media reported that some Chinese ships had been granted safe passage, at their government's request. Most other foreign ships are still stuck inside the Strait, and two that dared to transit without Iran's approval faced severe repercussions. •First, Iranian troops reportedly seized a vessel operating as a "floating armory" - a storage ship for weapons that private security firms use to protect client vessels from piracy or other attacks - in the Gulf of Oman. It's not clear what the Honduras-flagged Hui Chuan was carrying when it was seized, or who it was serving. •In a second incident, an Indian-flagged (and Indian-crewed) vessel, the Haji Ali, reportedly sank off the coast of Oman after a suspected drone or missile attack. The crew evacuated safely, but the livestock it was transporting from Berbera, Somaliland, to Sharjah, UAE, did not. CHINA •Presidents Trump and Xi continued their summit with smaller, private meetings this morning before Trump bade Xi farewell and left for home. •Both offered positive readouts - Trump called his visit "incredible" and Xi said it was "historic" - but there were no major breakthroughs. UKRAINE •Ukraine's anti-corruption court ordered the arrest of Pres. Zelensky's former top aide, Andriy Yermak, on money-laundering charges just days after naming Yermak as a suspect in a widening corruption probe. •Yermak maintains his innocence and plans to appeal. The charges against him could nonetheless raise awkward questions for Zelensky if and when he runs for re-election, but they're not likely to threaten Zelensky's current term. •Meanwhile on the front lines, Ukraine's military shared several videos purporting to show Russian soldiers surrending to Ukrainian ground robots, surprising even the company making the robots, DevDroid. •By using robots instead of humans to capture prisoners of war, Ukraine eliminates the risk that surrendering Russian soldiers could attack their captors by detonating a grenade - something Ukraine says has happened before. If they try that with robotic captors, DevDroid points out, they'll merely "destroy some metal, and that's all." Brazil •Leaked video caught presidential hopeful Flávio Bolsonaro - who is tied with incumbent Pres. Lula in polls ahead of October's election - asking a disgraced and now-jailed banker for R$134 million ($26.8 million) to fund a "heroic" biopic about Flávio's father, former president Jair Bolsonaro. •The revelations appalled Brazilians across the political spectrum. Even Flávio's fellow right-wingers expressed outrage: one called the recordings "a slap in the face to decent Brazilians," and another suggested replacing Flávio on the presidential ticket with his stepmom, Michelle. •Investors also believe the incident could damn Flávio's presidential aspirations: Brazil's stock index fell 2% as investors bet on Lula - whose leftist policies are bad for business - winning reelection. DRC •The Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC Africa) - Africa's top health agency - declared a new Ebola outbreak in DRC's eastern Ituri province. •CDC Africa said 65 deaths and 246 cases of the hemorrhagic fever have been reported in Ituri, mainly in the gold mining towns of Rwampara and Mongwalu. •This is DRC's 17th outbreak of Ebola, which is named after the Congolese river near where it was first identified in 1974. It could be hard to contain in Ituri, where the government has failed to contain an Allied Democratic Forces jihadist insurgency.
Open source reportOff Leash update 13 May IRAN •U.S. intelligence agencies have reportedly been painting a very different picture of Iran's surviving military capabilities in classified briefings than the outlook we're hearing from Pres. Trump and Secretary of War Hegseth. •The agencies assess that Iran has regained operational access to 30 of its 33 missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz, and could use the sites to target both military and commercial traffic through the chokepoint. •The agencies also estimated that Iran has restored access to around 90% of its underground launch and storage facilities, and retains about 70% of its prewar mobile launchers and its prewar missile stockpile (which includes both cruise and ballistic missiles). •Pres. Trump insists his starker assessments - e.g., that Iran has been "crushed" and has "nothing left in a military sense" - are accurate, and accused reporters who suggest otherwise of "virtual treason." •Separately, Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia carried out several quiet retaliatory strikes on Iran early in the war. It was the first known time that Saudi has directly struck Iran, and Riyadh apparently made it clear to Tehran that it wanted it to be the last, for now: soon after the strikes, Saudi diplomats engaged their Iranian counterparts in de-escalation talks. UKRAINE AND RUSSIA •Some optimists had hoped the three-day ceasefire Pres. Trump helped broker between Ukraine and Russia could be extended, but Russia's resumption of strikes on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure has ended those hopes. ISRAEL •Prime Minister Netanyahu's fragile ruling coalition finally looks set to collapse after Netanyahu's ultra-Orthodox coalition partners took umbrage at his plans to postpone legislation to shield their Haredi community from military service. (Netanyahu's rationale was that the measure lacked sufficient support in the current parliament and would have been rejected.) •The ultra-Orthodox Degel HaTorah faction responded angrily to the delay, saying it has "no trust in Netanyahu anymore" and calling a vote to dissolve parliament next week. •If that vote passes, new elections must be held within three months - far sooner than the current Oct. 27 deadline. •That's a problem for Netanyahu, who is trailing right-wing former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett in polls. But Netanyahu has survived tougher challenges before. •Separately, a two-year Israeli investigation concluded that Hamas and its allies perpetrated widespread sexual violence during and after the Oct. 7 attacks. It is the most comprehensive report of its kind yet, and will give prosecutors an ample base of evidence to use as they try Hamas militants for their crimes. NIGERIA •Nigeria's military was accused of another massacre of civilians in its errant pursuit of jihadist militants in the north. •The latest incident occurred on Sunday in Zamfara state: airstrikes on a market in Tumfa targeted a terrorist hideout, and - according to Amnesty International - killed over 100 civilians instead. •The military repeated the same response it always has to reports like this: it said it was only targeting militants and has seen no evidence of civilian casualties yet, but promised to investigate.
Open source reportOff Leash update 12 May IRAN •Pres. Trump raised concerns about renewed hostilities with Iran when he said the current, temporary ceasefire is on "massive life support" with a "1 percent chance" of survival and called Iran's latest counterproposal "garbage." •Iranian state media reported that the counterproposal Trump rejected called for the U.S. to pay war reparations, end sanctions on Iran, and recognize Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. It also reportedly postponed nuclear negotiations for "when the time is right." UKRAINE •Ukraine's anti-corruption authorities formally notified Pres. Zelensky's former chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, that he's a suspect in their widening investigation into corruption in the senior ranks of Zelensky's government. •Yermak resigned in November after investigators began looking into allegations of his involvement in a scheme to embezzle $100 million from the state nuclear company. •Investigators now allege that Yermak and two other disgraced former officials sought to use 460 million hryvnia ($10.5 million) of their tainted proceeds to build themselves neighboring luxury homes. •Zelensky has sought to distance himself from the disgraced officials and the investigation, and he won't be pleased to see the inquiry - dubbed Operation Midas - back in the headlines. •Separately, the European Union slapped sanctions on 16 more officials and seven more organizations accused of facilitating Russia's abduction of Ukrainian children. •Ukrainian authorities estimate that Russia has deported 20,500 Ukrainian children since the war began in 2022; only around 2,000 have been returned. UK •British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is stubbornly defying intensifying calls - including dozens from within his own Labour party - to step down. •A minister and several aides have already quit Starmer's government in protest at his insistence on staying on until a formal challenger emerges. That may not take long: other Labour lawmakers are organizing a challenge to unseat him. SOUTH AFRICA •South Africa's Parliament said it would comply with a recent Constitutional Court decision and establish an impeachment committee to re-investigate old misconduct allegations against President Cyril Ramaphosa. •The allegations center on a 2020 scandal in which thieves discovered $580,000 (and perhaps up to $4 million) in foreign cash hidden in a sofa at Ramaphosa's Phala Phala game farm, raising uncomfortable questions about how a lifetime public servant could have amassed such wealth and why he would keep it in cash instead of depositing it at a bank. •Ramaphosa's African National Congress colleagues in Parliament brushed the scandal under the rug in 2022 with a vote blocking the impeachment process. The Constitutional Court has now ruled that vote invalid, thus reviving the inquiry. •Like Starmer in the UK, Ramaphosa is defiantly refusing to resign. ISRAEL •The European Union slapped new sanctions on three Israeli settlers and four pro-settlement organizations accused of perpetrating violence against Palestinians in the West Bank, as well as several senior Hamas figures. •Spokesmen for both the Israeli government and Hamas seemed equally upset about the actual sanctions as they were about the other side facing similar - and not much harsher - penalties.
Open source reportOff Leash update 6 May UKRAINE •Ukraine and Russia both agreed to a ceasefire, but - in an indication of how much they mistrust each other - they agreed to separate ceasefires. •Ukraine's open-ended ceasefire started late yesterday and will last as long as Russia reciprocates, and Russia's - which was announced along with a threat of a "massive missile strike" if Ukraine doesn't comply - will start Friday. •Kyiv has already accused Russia of violating its ceasefire on the front lines, but hasn't torn up the truce yet. IRAN •Pres. Trump announced he was pausing "Project Freedom" - his plan to escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz - after just one day and three escorted transits, citing "great progress" that the U.S. and Iran are making towards a deal. •More likely, Project Freedom was making less progress than Trump had hoped, and Pakistani mediators convinced him it was counterproductive. Instead of freeing up shipping traffic in the Strait, the challenge of military escorts incited Iranian retaliation via small boat attacks. Only two or three escorted boats transited the Strait on Monday, and around 1,600 more remain trapped to the west. •Iran also seemed eager to de-escalate in a way that allows it to save face and claim victory. Its Speaker of Parliament claimed that a "new equation of the Strait of Hormuz is being stabilized." CHINA •Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, visited Beijing for talks with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi. It was their first in-person meeting - and Araghchi's first visit to China - since the war began, but Araghchi and Wang have spoken by phone three times since Feb. 28. •That's probably more than Araghchi has spoken with officials from any other country except those directly mediating between the U.S. and Iran. While it wasn't directly involved in mediating the current temporary ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, Beijing reportedly helped nudge Tehran to accept it. •The timing of Araghchi's visit - just one week before Pres. Xi hosts Pres. Trump - suggests Iran may hope Xi can again intercede as an unofficial mediator. TAIWAN •Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te defied Beijing's bullying and paid a visit to Taiwan's sole remaining ally in Africa, Eswatini (fka Swaziland). •Beijing had sought to block Lai's trip by ordering other African countries to deny his aircraft use of their airspace, but Lai bypassed the prohibition by flying in on an Eswatini government aircraft instead of his own. Beijing likened the clever workaround to "a rat scurrying across the street." ROMANIA •Romania's pro-European coalition government fell in an overwhelming no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan, who came to power less than a year ago as part of a motley coalition that has since broken down over Bolojan's proposed austerity measures. •President Nicusor Dan appealed for calm and promised a new, pro-Western government "within a reasonable time," while ruling out early elections. SYRIA •Syria said its security forces foiled a major terrorist attack that Lebanese Hezbollah militants were planning to carry out in coordinated operations targeting at least five different Syrian governates. •Hezbollah supported the deposed Assad regime's losing side in Syria's civil war, and has continued to agitate against the new government and its ex-rebel leaders in revenge for their efforts to cut off the smuggling routes Iran uses to supply its Lebanese proxy.
Open source reportOff Leash update May 4th COMING UP THIS WEEK •Today is Star Wars Day: May the 4th be with you. In other news related to fabulous costumes, tonight is also the Met Gala. •Friday is Victory in Europe (VE) Day, marking the 81st anniversary of the formal end of WWII in Europe. •Russia celebrates Victory Day on Saturday, May 9. That traditionally involves a big parade showing off the latest military kit alongside marching military academy cadets, but the Kremlin said the hardware display would be toned down this year because of the "operational situation" in Ukraine. •Saturday is also the start of the Venice Biennale art festival. The organizers controversially re-welcomed Russia's participation in this year's event, despite its ongoing war in Ukraine that saw it banned from the 2024 Biennale. •The U.S. celebrates Mother's Day on Sunday. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,522/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $35,485/ton •Bitcoin: $79,708 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $12,997/ton •Ethereum: $2,360 •Gold: $4,583/toz •Lead: $1,949/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.84/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $103.01/barrel •Zinc: $3,345/ton IRAN •Iran sent the U.S. a new, 14-point proposal for ending the war. Pres. Trump said he would "soon be reviewing the plan that Iran has just sent to us, but can’t imagine that it would be acceptable." However, Trump added that the ongoing back and forth "could lead to something very positive for all." •Separately, Trump announced a new initiative - dubbed Project Freedom - in which U.S. ships will guide vessels that are cut off by Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz through the Strait to open seas, starting today. The Economist noted that the plan is "essentially a challenge to Iran: a bet that it would not want to take the risk of firing the first shots — or laying mines — in a challenge to the United States." •The U.S. Treasury also threatened vessels that pay tolls to Iran for safe passage through the Strait with sanctions violations. The U.S. has historically focused its limited sanctions-enforcement resources on punishing the entities closest to sanctions targets - as opposed to distant "counterparties" like shipping companies being extorted by sanctions targets - but that could change as Treasury seeks to exert "maximum pressure" on Iran. UKRAINE •Ukraine launched another wave of drone attacks deep inside Russia, targeting its Primorsk oil terminal port (which is over 620 miles or 1,000 km from Ukraine) and other energy infrastructure. •That doesn't mean the temporary ceasefire that Presidents Trump and Putin proposed after their meeting last week is off the table. Ukraine hasn't publicly accepted or rejected the offer yet, and could be firing some parting shots to improve its position ahead of possible negotiations during the detente. GERMANY •German Chancellor Friedrich Merz started a tiff with Pres. Trump when he said the U.S. is being "humiliated" in Iran. •Trump hit back by threatening to raise tariffs on European Union auto imports to the U.S. from 15% to 25% - a move that would disproportionately affect Germany, given its automaking strength - and to pull 5,000 U.S. troops out of Germany. •The U.S. has over 36,000 active-duty troops in Germany - more than in any other country outside of the U.S. except Japan - so withdrawing 5,000 of them isn't as drastic as it sounds. It merely brings U.S. force strength in Europe back to where it was before the Ukraine war. CUBA •Citing Cuba's alleged ties to Iran and Hezbollah, the U.S. slapped broad new sanctions on Cuban entities and officials involved in the "energy, defense and related materiel, metals and mining, financial services, or security sector of the Cuban economy, or any other sector of the Cuban economy." •Hours after the new sanctions were announced on Friday, Pres. Trump told an audience in Florida that the U.S. will be "taking over" Cuba "on the way back from Iran," claiming that Cuba's government will see the USS Lincoln aircraft carrier "stop about 100 yards offshore, and they'll say, 'Thank you very much. We give up'." •Cuba - which has long relied on any help it can get, including from unsavory partners - called the new sanctions and thinly-veiled threats "illegal" and "coercive." In a way, they are probably intended to coerce Havana into ending its decades-long practice of offering a "permissive environment" for governments hostile to the U.S. to run intelligence and military operations from a base only 90 miles (145 km) from Florida. •Separately, a new report from the left-leaning Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) assessed that U.S. sanctions on Cuba - which were imposed by Trump in his first term but continued through Pres. Biden's term - were "likely the primary cause" of a 148% increase in infant mortality from 2018 to 2025.
Open source reportOff Leash update 30 April MALI •Mali's junta leader, Assimi Goita, made his first public appearance since Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) launched coordinated attacks that killed or wounded several of Goita's top brass and sent the rest - including Goita - into hiding. •In his address, Goita unconvincingly claimed that "the situation is under control" and vowed to pursue "the complete neutralization of the groups involved." •Local reports suggest the situation is decidedly not under control - at least not under the government's control. •JNIM claims it has imposed a siege on the capital of Bamako, and at least four villages in the Timbuktu and Gao regions have fallen to the FLA, which now has its sights on the eponymous regional capitals. •Meanwhile, fighters from JNIM's jihadist rival, Islamic State in the Sahel Province (ISSP), took advantage of the chaos to cross the unguarded border from Niger and briefly capture the northeastern town of Menaka before the army reasserted control. IRAN •Pres. Trump rejected Iran's proposal to end the war and both Hormuz blockades but postpone nuclear negotiations for later, and instead warned Iran to "get smart soon" amidst stalled talks. •The longer it takes Iran to "get smart," the more it will cost U.S. taxpayers. Yesterday, the Pentagon's comptroller released its first public estimate of the cost of the war to date: $25 billion. •Analysts believe that figure is too low, and the Pentagon acknowledges that it does not include the costs of repairing extensive damage to U.S. bases in the region, which the Pentagon hopes "our partners also might contribute a share for." •The Center for Strategic and International Studies thinks munitions alone have cost the U.S. about $25 billion so far, and other experts estimate the total cost to date at between $40 and $50 billion - up to double the Pentagon's accounting. TERROR FOR HIRE •The Iran-linked group Harakat Ashab al Yamin al Islamia claimed credit for a stabbing attack in the London suburb of Golders Green that wounded two Jewish men. •The group has now claimed over a dozen attacks in Europe - most, like this one, targeting Jewish people and sites. •In all recent cases, the perpetrators appear to be "vandals for hire" recruited on social media - as opposed to Iranian agents or ideologically-motivated sympathizers. [Russia has adopted a similar recruiting playbook for recent foreign sabotage plots in Europe.] •It's a clever operating model. Amateur local recruits are more likely to botch the operation they were hired to carry out, but - as The Economist points out - "even an unsuccessful operation is likely to create fear and confusion." Plus, Iran doesn't have to risk its agents when it hires local sub-contractors to do their job. UKRAINE •Presidents Trump and Putin spoke by phone yesterday - their 12th call since Trump's return to office - and afterwards floated the idea of a temporary ceasefire in Ukraine to mark Russia's Victory Day on May 9. •Ukraine cautiously welcomed the idea, but said it would need to better understand the details before it could agree to a proposal that Trump and Putin came up with. VENEZUELA •In another sign of the warming relationship between Washington and the new government in Caracas, American Airlines plans to resume daily direct passenger flights between Miami and Caracas today, after a seven-year hiatus. •Tickets for the 76-seat flight sold out quickly, and American plans to add a second daily round-trip between Miami and Caracas from May 21. SOUTH SUDAN •South Sudan's Pres. Salva Kiir sacked his foreign and trade ministers and a senior security official in his latest of many recent cabinet shakeups. •Kiir is rumored to be both ill and sharply distrustful of those around him - many of whom are jostling to replace him when he dies or is ousted, lending credence to his distrust. •But after sacking so many of his deputies over questions of loyalty, he's left with a corrupt and bungling administration that appoints dead men to office and runs the country's only international airport into the ground. MEXICO •U.S. prosecutors indicted the governor of Mexico's Sinaloa state, Rubén Rocha Moya, and nine other current and former Mexican officials on charges related to helping the Sinaloa cartel traffic drugs into the U.S. and avoid arrest for doing so. •Rocha called the charges "entirely false and without foundation" and accused the U.S. of violating Mexico's sovereignty and causing trouble for its ruling leftist Morena party, of which he is a member. [Some would say Rocha is the one causing trouble for Morena by doing things that led to numerous corruption allegations.] •Either way, the episode puts Pres. Sheinbaum in a pickle. She works hard to keep a cordial relationship with Pres. Trump while defending Mexico's sovereignty. •Her deputies have asked their U.S. counterparts for advance notice of charges against sitting Morena officials so they can manage the fallout. It's not clear if they were notified in advance about Rocha's indictment.
Open source reportOff Leash update 29 April UAE •The United Arab Emirates (UAE), which produces about 12% of global oil, announced that it will leave the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), effective Friday. •The UAE has long complained that OPEC's quotas constrain its oil exports and has been threatening to quit the cartel for years so it can have more flexibility to meet market demand. [In the long run, that is. For now, Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is a far tighter curb on Emirati oil exports than OPEC production controls.] •The UAE's departure from OPEC could also lead to more volatile oil prices in the long run, since less of the world's oil supply will be subject to OPEC oversight. IRAQ •After months of deadlock, Iraq's Pres. Nizar Amedi named businessman Ali al Zaidi as his prime minister (PM) designate and tasked al Zaidi with forming a government. •Al Zaidi's appointment was perhaps partly intended to appease Pres. Trump, who vigorously opposed Amedi's first choice for PM - two-time PM Nouri al Maliki - over the latter's close ties to Iran and threatened to end U.S. support for Iraq if al Maliki was re-appointed. •Al Zaidi has his own links with Iran: he owns Al-Janoob Islamic Bank, which is under U.S. sanctions over 2024 allegations of laundering money to Iran and its proxies. •But that doesn't seem to bother Trump as much as the prospect of a continued power struggle or another al Maliki government in Iraq. Washington has signalled that it won't oppose al Zaidi's designation, despite sanctions against his bank. MALI •Gold miners operating in Mali seem unfazed by the coordinated attacks Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) staged over the weekend. •For one thing, miners bold enough to be operating in Mali right now are used to being targeted directly - as when JNIM attacked Flagship Gold's Morila Mine in January - but were largely spared by this assault, which targeted junta leaders. Record-high gold prices are giving them added incentive to stay put. •The BBC suggested that the failure of Russian Africa Corps fighters to defend Kidal from the FLA has tarnished Russia's reputation as a reliable security partner in the Sahel. •The broader assault also raised questions about Col. Assimi Goita's military leadership, which has failed to solve the security problems that prompted its coup to overthrow Mali's last civilian government in 2020. •Assuming it survives, Mali's junta will likely continue to accept Russian help, but may now seek to deepen other security partnerships, including with Turkey, its fellow Alliance of Sahel States (Burkina Faso and Niger), and even the U.S., which sent its most senior Africa-focused diplomat to Bamako earlier this year. •The juntas in Burkina Faso and Niger - which also rely on Russian security support - will be watching Mali closely. So will Africa Corps' other partners on the continent, which include Libya and the Central African Republic. •[Russia's defense ministry unconvincingly claimed that Africa Corps troops valiantly defended Kidal, despite being vastly outnumbered and outgunned, and also prevented a coup against Goita's government. The Kremlin also alleged, without evidence, that the JNIM and FLA fighters that Africa Corps defeated had been trained by European instructors, including Ukrainians.]
Open source reportOff Leash update 28 April IRAN •Iran proposed a new plan to the U.S. via regional mediators. This one dodges the intractable nuclear questions that dogged prior proposals by postponing nuclear negotiations, and focuses instead on ending both blockades of the Strait of Hormuz. •Pres. Trump is reportedly not satisfied with Iran's proposal, which would be hard for him to sell as a win. It fails to resolve two key objectives of his war - barring Iran from future nuclear enrichment and doing away with its stockpile of already-enriched uranium - and only fixes Hormuz shipping, which wasn't broken before the war. RUSSIA •Iran's busy Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, continued his diplomatic tour with a visit to Moscow to discuss the ongoing war with Pres. Putin. •Putin has given Iran limited intelligence and military support, but he doesn't want to upset Israel, Gulf states, or Pres. Trump by overtly siding with Iran. •To that end, he offered Araghchi some nice compliments about how "courageously and heroically the people of Iran are fighting for their independence and for their sovereignty," but reportedly brushed off Araghchi's request to intercede with Pres. Trump to accept the plan Iran proposed for ending blockades. LEBANON •Israel and Hezbollah continue to trade near-daily strikes, though fighting has been largely constrained to the south until yesterday, when Israel struck targets in Hezbollah's stronghold in the eastern Bekaa Valley. •Hezbollah's leader, Naim Qassem, issued a defiant written statement declaring that the militant group will not "relinquish its weapons or its defenses" and demanding that the Lebanese government stop negotiating with Israel on Hezbollah's behalf. •Israel's Defense Minister, Israel Katz, angrily accused Qassem of "playing with fire…[that] will burn Hezbollah and all of Lebanon" and criticized the Lebanese government for failing to rein in or disarm the militants, who vastly outmuscle the weak Lebanese military. MALI •As the dust settles on the weekend's coordinated attacks by al Qaeda-linked Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Tuareg-led Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), it's becoming apparent that the vast assault shook Mali's government deeply. •Defense chief Gen. Sadio Camara wasn't the only high-ranking casualty. Two other senior junta figures - third-in-command Gen. Modibo Koné and military chief of staff Oumar Diarra - were badly injured and taken to heavily-guarded hospitals, where Koné reportedly died of his wounds. •Junta leader / President Assimi Goita was rushed to a secure location as the attacks began, and hasn't been heard from since. His silence is adding to concerns that his government may not survive for long. •JNIM and the FLA aren't necessarily trying to topple Goita's government and probably don't want to control Mali. Rather, they likely prefer to force concessions from the wounded regime: JNIM wants Goita to call off counterinsurgency operations against it, and the FLA seeks more autonomy - and perhaps eventually independence - for northern Tuaregs. •Emerging reports suggest that JNIM now controls Kidal, and JNIM / FLA fighters are entrenched around the cities of Mopti, Sevaré, and Gao awaiting orders that will depend on how the government responds to their demands. DRC •DRC's General Inspectorate of Mines (IGM) announced a new paramilitary "mining guard" to secure critical mineral mining sites and transport routes. •The IGM aims to eventually recruit 20,000 guards for a six-month training program before gradually deploying them to 22 mining provinces, starting with the first 2,500 to 3,000 that will deploy to Katanga in December. •Investment partnerships with the U.S. and UAE will help fund the $100 million guard program, which is essentially a downpayment on fostering a security environment that American and Emirati firms can trust to protect their future investments in DRC's mineral sector. PAKISTAN AND AFGHANISTAN •Unsurprisingly, the fragile, China-mediated truce that Pakistan and Afghanistan agreed to last month is breaking down. •Afghanistan's Taliban government accused Pakistan of targeting a university in Kunar with mortar and rocket strikes that killed seven and wounded 85. •Pakistan's military denied the accusation that it targeted a university as "a blatant lie" and said its targeting is always "precise and intelligence-based." It did not deny the strike or say what its real target was.
Open source reportOff Leash update 27 April COMING UP THIS WEEK •The UK's King Charles and Queen Camilla are on a state visit to the U.S. this week. The most consequential part of their tour will be Charles's meeting with Pres. Trump and his address to the U.S. Congress on Tuesday. In both, he'll aim to repair the strained "special relationship" between the U.S. and UK. •The UN begins its five-yearly Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference this week in Geneva, but it's hard to see why they bother: no review since 2010 has led to an agreed outcome. •Friday is May Day or Workers' Day - except in the U.S. and Canada, where workers are celebrated in September. •Central bankers in the U.S., UK, EU, and several other countries will all announce interest rate decisions this week. Investors expect all except perhaps Japan to keep rates flat. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,591/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $34,645/ton •Bitcoin: $77,629 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $13,310/ton •Ethereum: $2,319 •Gold: $4,710/toz •Lead: $1,963/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.51/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $96.16/barrel •Zinc: $3,472/ton MALI •Jihadists from the al Qaeda-linked Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) joined forces with the Tuareg separatist-led Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) to launch a wave of attacks across Mali that captured several towns and killed the junta's defense minister, Gen. Sadio Camara. •The FLA reportedly led the attacks on Gao and Kidal in the north - where they seek to carve out an independent ethnic Tuareg state - while JNIM led attacks on Bamako and central cities like Sevare and Mopti. •A separate prong of their joint assault targeted the head of the junta, Gen. Assimi Goita, but Goita was moved to a secure location where he survived unscathed. •The FLA reportedly bested Russian mercenaries in Kidal and took control of the city after the Russians agreed to withdraw. The FLA then called on Russia to "reconsider its support for the military junta" and leave Mali altogether, accusing the Russians of having "contributed to the suffering of the civilian population." •While JNIM and the FLA share a mutual loathing for the junta-led government in Bamako, this is the first time they've teamed up on a vast, coordinated attack or jointly called for Russia's departure. •It's not clear what their end game is or whether they agree on a shared objective. The FLA wants Tuareg independence, while the JNIM wants to become a political entity and impose sharia law throughout Mali. If they do succeed in bringing down the junta-led government they both revile - which seems unlikely - they would be awkward co-rulers. IRAN •The U.S. and Iran are in no hurry to start a second round of direct peace talks, but both are reportedly engaging indirectly through Pakistani and Omani mediators. •While they stall, the war is costing the U.S. almost $1 billion per day. •Iran, meanwhile, is devising ways to profit from its control of the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi flew to Oman yesterday to seek Muscat's help in setting up a new tolling system for the Strait. Oman - which prides itself on being a "friend to all" - will likely politely decline to participate. ISRAEL •Former Israeli prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announced plans to merge their parties - Bennett's right-leaning Bennett 2026 and Lapid's centrist Yesh Atid - into a combined entity aptly named Yachad ("together," in Hebrew) to try to unseat Prime Minister Netanyahu in elections expected later this year. •There's a fair chance they could succeed: it was a Bennett-Lapid partnership that temporarily ousted Netanyahu in 2021, and Netanyahu's motley coalition is more fragile now than it was then. DEFENSE SPENDING •The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) published its annual report on global defense spending today, with a headline that total worldwide military expenditure grew for an 11th straight year to $2.89 trillion. •Just over half of that - $1.48 trillion - came from the top three spenders: the U.S., China, and Russia. U.S. spending actually declined slightly, but Europe's 14% increase made up for the U.S. decrease. •You can read more here: https://t.co/qWV5aVJhgm. SPORT •Kenyan runner Sabastian Sawe became the first person to run a sub-two hour legal marathon when he set a new world record - 1h59m30s - at yesterday's London Marathon. •It was a fast race: the second-place finisher - Ethiopia's Yomif Kejelcha - also finished in under two hours, and the women's winner - Tigst Assefa, also of Ethiopia - broke her own women's world record with a time of 2h15m41s.
Open source reportOff Leash update 24 April IRAN •The NYT published an excellent report describing how the war has shifted power in Iran from the powerful late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to a group of Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) generals who are now calling the shots. •Pres. Trump has called Iran's new leaders "much more reasonable" than the clerics who imposed the previous Supreme Leader's dictates, and in some ways they are. They're more focused on economic interests than theocratic ones, which makes them more open to the kind of deal Trump can agree to. But their grasp of geo-economic power is also what emboldens them to wield it - for example, by choking off the Strait of Hormuz. •It was reportedly the Guards who decided not to attend a second round of peace talks in Islamabad. Their voices prevailed over those of Iran's President, Masoud Pezeshkian, and Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, who both favored joining talks. Pezeshkian and Araghchi have been seemingly sidelined as the Guards assumed control of the war. •Separately, Pres. Trump has reportedly asked FIFA - which awarded him its inaugural Peace Prize last year - to disqualify Iran from this summer's World Cup and replace it with Italy, which failed to qualify for the tournament. Italy's sports minister said the pity invite would be "inappropriate," adding: "Qualification is on the pitch." Italian fans largely agree. LEBANON •Israel and Lebanon agreed to extend their 10-day truce by a further three weeks. •Like the initial deal, this agreement was brokered and announced by Pres. Trump, who again cajoled reluctant Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into accepting it. •Also as in the first deal, Lebanon - which is not fighting Israel - signed a truce with Israel on behalf of Hezbollah, and can do little to ensure that Hezbollah respects a truce it didn't agree to. [It bears mention that - except for some skirmishes in the south - Hezbollah has mostly respected the ceasefire so far. It has used the reprieve as an opportunity to bury its dead.] VENEZUELA •Venezuela's Acting President, Delcy Rodriguez, announced an end to the amnesty law her government enacted in February under pressure from the U.S. •Rodriguez said 8,616 people had been freed from Venezuelan prisons in the three months the measure was in effect, but rights groups say the true figure was closer to 700. •In addition, most of the political prisoners the U.S. wanted released or exonerated were expressly excluded from the amnesty, and 473 of them are still in prison or have been reincarcerated. •Rodriguez's government still wants to add opposition leader Maria Corina Machado - who faces treason charges that have deterred her return to Venezuela - to that count. •Rodriguez obliquely noted that "there are other avenues through which [the excluded cases] can be addressed," but declined to add detail and doesn't seem serious about addressing them. •Rodriguez especially won't want to facilitate Machado's return to Venezuela, where Machado remains popular and a threat to Rodriguez's unelected regime.
Open source reportOff Leash update 22 April IRAN •Pres. Trump announced an extension to the temporary ceasefire with Iran that was set to expire last night. The truce will now remain in effect until Iran's "proposal is submitted, and discussions are concluded, one way or the other." •Trump said the U.S. military blockade of Iranian ports will remain in place, which presents a challenge to forward progress on a lasting peace deal. Iran considers the U.S. blockade a violation of the temporary ceasefire and refused to submit its proposal or engage in a second round of discussions over the matter. •The latest U.S. proposal that the U.S. wants Iran to respond to reportedly contains the same sticking points on nuclear issues as before, making it unlikely that Iran will suddenly agree to accept the U.S. position. JAPAN •Japan relaxed post-World War II restrictions on exporting lethal weapons in a bid to support allies embroiled in wars in the Middle East and Ukraine. Exports will still be restricted to 17 countries with which Japan has defense agreements. •Growing numbers of Japanese - especially the young - oppose the move to erode their country's postwar pacifism. Tens of thousands turned out to protest in front of the Diet yesterday, shouting chants like "stop sucking up to America" and holding signs with anti-war slogans like "Cats, not bombs." CHINA •Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te cancelled a planned trip to Eswatini (fka Swaziland) this week after China pressured three other African countries - the Seychelles, Mauritius, and Madagascar - revoked overflight permission for his presidential aircraft. •Lai blamed China, saying that "the actual reason [for the revocation of flight permits] was intense pressure exerted by Chinese authorities, including economic coercion." Taiwanese officials say Beijing threatened to impose economic sanctions on and cancel much-needed debt relief for the Seychelles, Mauritius, and Madagascar unless they revoked the flight permits. •Eswatini is one of only 12 countries that still recognize Taiwan's independence from China, and the only African country still doing so. Many other nations - like the three that cancelled Lai's flight permits - have been enticed by Belt and Road perks or coerced by economic threats into siding with Beijing. UKRAINE •Ukraine's Pres. Zelensky said repairs to the Druzhba pipeline have been completed and the pipeline can resume carrying Russian oil to Europe. •Zelensky hopes that reopening the pipeline can unlock a €90 billion ($106 billion) European Union (EU) loan to Ukraine that Hungary and Slovakia had been blocking over pipeline repair delays. LEBANON •Israel accused Hezbollah of violating the temporary ceasefire that Israel and Lebanon agreed to by firing rockets at Israeli positions in south Lebanon. •Hezbollah wasn't a party to the 10-day truce but until this incident had mostly respected Lebanon's pleas to uphold it.
Open source reportOff Leash update 16 April IRAN •The U.S. and Iran are reportedly discussing an extension to the two-week temporary ceasefire that currently expires next Wednesday (April 22) to allow more time to negotiate a more permanent truce. •Pres. Trump downplayed reports of a possible extension and said it would be "preferable" to finalize a permanent truce instead of prolonging a temporary one. Iranian state media reported that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei also opposes an extension. However, both leaders likely prefer an extension over a return to war. LEBANON •Pres. Trump said in a Truth Social post that the leaders of Israel and Lebanon will speak today. •He didn't explicitly say which leaders would speak, but it probably won't be the heads of state: it's hard to imagine Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu agreeing to talk to Lebanese President Aoun after derisively rejecting Aoun's outreach for months. •Separately, the Israeli military said that its April 8 strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon were even more devastating to the militant group's command structure and operational capabilities than its September 2024 pager attack, "but both targeted hundreds of terrorists and within 60 seconds." •The April 8 operation was based on extensive intelligence that tracked 250 Hezbollah operatives - including a large share of the group's mid-level commanders - and simultaneously targeted them in many different locations throughout Lebanon. •Israeli officials assess that Hezbollah's command is still reeling from the April 8 blow, though its rocket fire hasn't abated yet. DRC •DRC's market regulator, ARECOMS, formally established a state strategic cobalt reserve in a bid to expand its control over cobalt supply chains and capture a greater share of the value of its mineral wealth. •The new decree forces cobalt miners operating in DRC - including China's CMOC, Huayou, and Sicomines as well as Glencore and the Eurasian Resources Group - to contribute 10% of their cobalt export volume to the reserve. •It also forces them to max out their quarterly export quotas because they will now forfeit any cobalt they mined but failed to export before each quarterly deadline, with the excess also going into the state reserve. •DRC's cobalt miners will resent the state's new value capture, but there's not much they can do about it: 70% of global cobalt production comes from DRC and the other 30% is generally costlier to extract, so they're stuck working with Kinshasa and its escalating demands. VENEZUELA •Spain's Repsol reached an agreement with Venezuela and its state oil company, PDVSA, to take back operational control of its operations at the Petroquiriquire field, which currently produces about 45,000 barrels per day. •Repsol thinks - probably correctly - that it can operate Petroquiriquire better than PDVSA has: in the new agreement, Repsol committed to tripling the field's production within three years.
Open source reportOff Leash update 9 April IRAN •American and Iranian delegations will meet in Islamabad starting tomorrow to try to negotiate a more permanent peace than the current, 14-day ceasefire that both sides have already accused the other of violating. •Ahead of that summit, Iran circulated its draft 10-point counterproposal, which the White House claimed was different from the plan it had called "a workable basis on which to negotiate." •The public draft Iran circulated yesterday contained several points that the U.S. delegation won't be able to agree to and preemptively criticized as "fundamentally unserious." For example, it explicitly allows Iran to enrich uranium and control transit through the Strait of Hormuz, and demands a U.S. military withdrawal from the entire Gulf region and reparations for war damages. •The White House is working on its own proposal that's sure to be starkly different from Iran's. It's hard to imagine the two sides reaching any middle ground from such distant starting positions. •It doesn't seem like the two sides even agree about the terms of the current, 14-day ceasefire. One of its key tenets - at least as Pres. Trump pitched it - was reopening the Strait of Hormuz for shipping, but Iran still controls traffic through the Strait and is even strengthening its tolling system with a new plan to charge transiting ships $1 per barrel of oil aboard, payable in Bitcoin (so it can't be traced or confiscated). •Gulf countries also reported continued incursions by Iranian missiles and drones after the ceasefire was announced. LEBANON •Another reason the current, 14-day U.S.-Iran ceasefire is wobbling is because of a disagreement over whether it extends to Lebanon. Iran and Pakistan say it does; the U.S. and Israel say it does not. •Israel forced the issue by carrying out its deadliest strikes yet on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon yesterday, killing at least 254 in what Lebanon's Pres. Aoun called a "massacre." •U.S. Vice President JD Vance - who will lead the U.S. delegation in truce talks with Islamabad this weekend - said yesterday that Israel offered to restrain its (future) strikes on Lebanon for the sake of ongoing peace talks. •That may be too little, too late for Iran, whose deputy foreign minister called Israel's strikes on Lebanon a "grave violation" of the temporary ceasefire. VENEZUELA •Venezuela's interim president, Delcy Rodriguez, announced a "responsible increase" in the public sector minimum wage starting next month - as opposed to the highly irresponsible past wage hikes that triggered inflation crises. •The country's minimum wage has been stuck at an unliveable 130 bolivares - about $0.28 at official rates - per month since March 2022, forcing many workers to sustain themselves from bonuses or side hustles. •Rodriguez didn't give a figure for the new minimum wage, but she said oil and mining revenues would pay for it. SAHEL •Two leading jihadist groups in the Sahel - Al Qaeda-linked Jama'at Nusrat al Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) and Islamic State in the Sahel Province (ISSP) - took their long-running rivalry to Niger for the first time, with a series of skirmishes in Tillaberi, western Niger. •JNIM and ISSP have been fighting each other in the Sahel since at least 2019, but their previous clashes have been restricted to Mali and Burkina Faso. •Analysts say the spillover into Niger is a sign that JNIM sees an opportunity to follow ISSP's lead in exploiting security gaps in Niger and northern Nigeria, while ISSP resents the competition and is willing to fight to retain exclusive control. SOCIAL MEDIA •Greece became the third country - after Australia and Spain - to announce plans to ban minors from social media. Several other countries - including Denmark, France, Indonesia, and Malaysia - are considering similar bans. •Proponents of the bans believe social media usage harms children and a ban will prevent harm, but critics say bans will only push online minors to darker and less-regulated parts of the internet.
Open source reportOff Leash update 8 April IRAN •Just 90 minutes before Pres. Trump's deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or see its "whole civilization" destroyed, Trump announced that Iran had agreed to a two-week ceasefire. Iranian officials and Pakistani mediators soon confirmed the truce. •Iran pledged to reopen the Strait and both sides agreed to join talks towards a more lasting peace, which will start in Islamabad on Friday. •Axios reported that Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, personally backed and blessed the deal. That suggests Khamenei - who holds his cards close but is thought to be a hardliner - has a pragmatic side too. •Investors believe the temporary truce will hold and markets rallied on the news of a deal. Shipping companies seem cautiously optimistic but want more confirmation that their ships won't be attacked before sending them through the Strait. LEBANON •Israel said the temporary truce between the U.S. and Iran does not include Lebanon, and the Israel Defense Forces continued to strike Hezbollah targets there. •Pakistan's prime minister said the U.S.-Iran agreement does include Lebanon. Lebanon's economy minister complained of "mixed signals." IRAQ •Kataib Hezbollah freed American journalist Shelly Kittleson yesterday - one week after kidnapping her in Baghdad. •The group apparently abducted Kittleson in order to use her as a bargaining chip to win the release of some of its members from Iraqi jails, and it worked: several imprisoned Kataib Hezbollah members were freed yesterday, too. AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN •Afghanistan and Pakistan have been quietly engaging in peace talks in the western Chinese city of Urumqi this week. •Kabul called the talks "useful," but it sounds like both sides merely repeated the same tired accusations and demands they've been making for decades. •The only thing that China's Foreign Ministry could claim that this summit achieved was a vague alignment on "media coverage" (and the fact that it offered no further details on what that means shows how little alignment there really was). NORTH KOREA •North Korean state media published photos of Kim Jong Un's daughter and presumed successor, Kim Ju-ae, driving a tank during a military exercise. •Pyongyang's propaganda is always carefully crafted to send a specific message. These images of Ju-ae in military motifs are likely intended to convey that - despite being female in a deeply patriarchal society - she has the legitimacy to succeed her male ancestors. [They also show that North Korea has a low driving age: Ju-ae is thought to be just 13.] SPACE •NASA's Artemis II mission beamed some spectacular images from its lunar flyby back to Earth yesterday. You can see them here: https://t.co/6IqxEqVCCH.
Open source reportOff Leash update 6 April COMING UP THIS WEEK •Tomorrow at 8 pm ET is Pres. Trump's extended deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on its power plants and bridges. Iran's leaders have publicly dismissed the ultimatum, but Trump told Fox he thinks there's a "good chance" that private talks will reach a deal today to avoid escalation. •The first round of the golf Masters Tournament opens Thursday at the Augusta National Golf Club in Georgia. FOUR ELECTIONS NEXT WEEKEND •Djibouti votes for president on Friday. Longtime incumbent Ismail Omar Guelleh is sure to win, thanks to a late parliamentary decision scrapping an age limit of 75 that would've rendered him ineligible. Incidentally, that age limit was only imposed as part of a 2010 electoral "reform" that did away with term limits so he could run for a third term. This will be his sixth. •Hungary will hold a parliamentary election on Sunday. The Fidesz party's populist incumbent, Viktor Orban, is trailing in (independent) polls by 11 points to the center-right Tisza party's Peter Magyar, but government polls tell a different story, and analysts think Orban will pull out all the stops to extend his 16-year premiership. •Benin will vote for president on Sunday. The ruling party's candidate - current finance minister Romuald Wadagni - is heavily favored and the opposition's main candidate was barred from running. •Peru votes for president and parliament on Sunday. Two right-leaning candidates are leading the presidential polls, but - with a record 35 candidates contesting the race - it's likely to go to a runoff. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,470/ton •Antimony (global avg. from Antimony Global): $34,352/ton [Note: I'm switching to a new antimony benchmark that should be a better indicator of global average prices than the unconvincingly flat benchmark I was using for trioxide min. 99.65% fob China. Unlike exchange-traded commodities, antimony is usually traded through private over-the-counter contracts, which means prices are highly volatile and variable. This Antimony Global world average seems like the best big-picture benchmark out there.] •Bitcoin: $68,928 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $12,360/ton •Ethereum: $2,126 •Gold: $4,665/toz •Lead: $1,933/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.80/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $111.71/barrel •Zinc: $3,265/ton IRAN •Oil markets are volatile while waiting to see whether the U.S. and Iran will make a deal or - in the absence of a deal - if Pres. Trump will make good on his increasingly brash threats against Iran if it doesn't "open the fuckin' strait" by his deadline of 8 pm ET tomorrow. •Trump seemed emboldened to escalate his rhetoric by the success of a high-risk rescue mission to locate and extract a U.S. Air Force colonel whose F-15E Strike Eagle was shot down in southern Iran on Friday. •Iranian forces were desperately searching for the downed airman, too, and would've used him as negotiating leverage if they'd found him first. A CIA deception campaign helped ensure that didn't happen. •Separately, Egypt, Pakistan, and Turkey proposed a 45-day ceasefire plan to both Iran and the U.S. that includes a proposal for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Neither has responded yet, and it's unclear whether this is the deal that Trump gave a "good chance" of closing today. •Meanwhile, a likely Israeli strike killed Majid Khademi - the head of intelligence for Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) - earlier today. Khademi had only been in his post since last June, when his predecessor was killed in an Israeli strike. TRADE •Bloomberg reported that 13 ships have transited the Strait of Hormuz in the past week: 10 exiting the Persian Gulf and three entering. •That's the highest seven-day rolling total since the war began, and it included a French container ship and a Japanese-owned LNG tanker - both with no clear links to Iran. However, it's still just a trickle compared to the historical average of 138 transits per day. •Iran has reportedly set up a tolling system - which witty commentators dubbed an "ayatollah booth" - to charge some ships a rumored $2 million (in yuan) for safe passage. It has also restricted transits to a narrow northern passage, creating a natural limit on traffic too. •Meanwhile, European leaders are exploring options for safeguarding trade in the Strait. They're reportedly considering naval escorts (French Pres. Macron's preferred option), minesweeping, aerial interceptors, and - the bureaucrats' favorite - negotiations and economic measures. All have drawbacks, and none are sure to work. CHINA •Cheng Li-wun, who leads Taiwan's largest opposition party - the Kuomintang (KMT) - won her party's leadership in October after campaigning on closer ties with mainland China. That platform also won her an invitation from Xi Jinping to visit the mainland, which she's doing this week with a delegation that will stop in Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Beijing. •Xi's courtship of the KMT under Cheng is likely part of his push to reunify Taiwan. It would be easier if a pliant future KMT government simply agreed to reunification than if Beijing had to take the island by force. •To that end, Beijing also reached out to the current (more defiant) Taiwanese government in early March to offer energy guarantees if it agreed to reunify. Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party leaders quickly rejected the proposal, which was probably more of an optics play (to show Taiwan that its leaders refuse dialogue even at the expense of energy security) than a real offer. HUNGARY •Serbian officials discovered two backpacks containing explosives near a pipeline carrying Russian gas to Hungary. That appears to corroborate Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's claim that "Ukraine has been for years trying to cut off Europe from Russian energy." •However, Hungary's opposition leader, Peter Magyar - who's leading Orban in independent polls ahead of Sunday's election - was skeptical. Magyar accused Orban of staging a "false flag" operation to scare voters into rallying behind their strongman leader on Sunday.
Open source reportOff Leash update 2 April IRAN •Pres. Trump used his primetime address on Iran last night to declare that the war was "nearing completion" and - having achieved its objectives - would wrap up in the next two or three weeks, with or without a deal. •Critics complained that he moved the goalposts to be able to claim victory in achieving objectives like regime change ("they’re all dead, so I would consider that regime change") and eliminating Iran's nuclear threat (he now says the 400 kg of enriched uranium that Iran could use to race towards a bomb is "so far underground, I don't care about that"). •He also offered no clear plan for ending the month-long conflict, and alternated between threats to "bring them back to the stone ages, where they belong" and claims that "discussions were ongoing" - and going well, since "we have all the cards; they have none." •Iran denies that any such discussions are taking place, and its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) seems to still have some cards left. Yesterday, it said it would start targeting the Middle East offices of major U.S. companies like Apple, Boeing, Google, JPMorgan Chase, Microsoft, and Nvidia. •While denying that talks are already underway, Iran's Pres. Pezeshkian told European Council President Antonio Costa that Iran is open to a truce as long as it includes guarantees of a permanent end to hostilities. Iranian hardliners hate the idea of negotiating any kind of truce. •Separately, Long War Journal assessed that Iran and its proxies fired fewer projectiles in the period from March 28 to April 1 than they had in earlier parts of the war, but that their recent strikes have been more accurate and effective at penetrating air defenses. IRAQ •It emerged that Kataib Hezbollah, an Iran-linked Iraqi militia, was behind the kidnapping of American journalist Shelly Kittleson in Baghdad on Tuesday. •Though Kataib Hezbollah has links to Iran, its practice of kidnapping Westerners predates the war. It kidnapped a Russian-Israeli researcher in early 2023 and held her for nearly three years before freeing her under pressure from the Trump administration. •It now wants to trade Kittleson for several of its members imprisoned in Iraq. RUSSIA AND UKRAINE •Ukraine is doing its best to hinder Russia's ability to reap windfall profits from high oil prices and temporary partial sanctions relief by targeting Russian oil export infrastructure. Ukrainian drones carried out an unprecedented scale of strikes on export facilities that took up to 40% of Russia's total crude export capacity offline. Some capacity has now been restored. •Separately, Russia claimed that its forces had taken full control of eastern Ukraine's Luhansk region. Russia has long controlled 99% of Luhansk, and has now thrice claimed to have captured the last remaining pockets of it. •Like its two previous claims, this one seems premature: the Institute for the Study of War assessed that the settlements of Nadiya and Novoyehorivka remain outside Russian control. VENEZUELA •The U.S. lifted sanctions on Venezuela's new president, Delcy Rodriguez. Rodriguez had been blacklisted since 2018 for her role as vice president in her predecessor's repressive regime. •Since the U.S. ousted her predecessor, Nicolas Maduro, and installed her in his place, she's been pliant and willing to work with the U.S. on priority goals like opening Venezuelan oil and mining assets to U.S. investment. NATO •Pres. Trump threatened to withdraw the U.S. from NATO, which he called a "paper tiger," over allies' reluctance to join his war with Iran. It's not the first time Trump has threatened to pull out of the alliance, but this time he seems more likely to follow through. Having heard the same threat before, NATO members are also probably better prepared for an alliance without the U.S.
Open source reportOff Leash update 1 April IRAN •Pres. Trump plans to address the nation on Iran this evening, and has hinted to reporters that he'll claim his objectives have been achieved and announce a winding down of the war in the next two to three weeks. •Iran's leaders may be skeptical of agreeing to a truce - especially one pitched on April Fool's Day. •For one thing, Trump's stated goal in both brief wars on Iran in the past year - ensuring that Iran will never have a nuclear bomb - still hasn't been conclusively achieved. Iran's 400 kg of enriched uranium is still at large, and its regime hasn't committed to abandoning its nuclear ambitions. If anything, this war may have hardened them. •Nonetheless, Iran's Pres. Pezeshkian seemed cautiously open to a truce, as long as it came with security guarantees. That part will need to be fleshed out in talks. •Israel seems ready to end the war, too. The Israel Defense Forces estimated yesterday that all of its "critical" targets - i.e., those directly linked to Iran's missile programs that present an immediate threat - and "essential" targets - essential military-industrial sites that present a slightly less imminent threat - will be destroyed by today. •Americans will be glad to see the war end and fuel prices retreat. Two-thirds of respondents to a Reuters / Ipsos poll said they supported ending the war quickly, even if Trump's shifting goals for it are unmet. CHINA •As Trump vacillates on how the war might end, China is trying to step in as a peacemaker with a clearer, five-point peace plan that it pitched yesterday with Pakistan. •The Chinese-Pakistani plan calls for an immediate end to hostilities and strikes on infrastructure, a resumption of "normal passage" through the Strait of Hormuz, and "peace talks as soon as possible." •Analysts pointed out that this plan has striking parallels with the 12-point plan China proposed for ending the war in Ukraine in 2023. •That push fizzled out after Xi Jinping declined to stake his political capital meddling in a foreign crisis. It's unclear whether he has any more appetite for intervention now. CUBA •The Anatoly Kolodkin, a U.S.-sanctioned Russian tanker, delivered fuel to Cuba yesterday after securing Pres. Trump's approval to sail through his energy blockade of the island. •This shipment will last Cuba 3-4 weeks, and it may be the first of several: the White House said it would evaluate whether to allow other fuel deliveries to Cuba on a "case-by-case basis." •That's a stark reversal from Trump's proclamation on Truth Social in January that "THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA — ZERO!" Trump said he relented out of humanitarian concern for fuel-starved Cubans, but analysts suggested he lost interest in picking a fight with Cuba while his attention is focused on Iran. IRAQ •American journalist Shelley Kittleson was kidnapped in Baghdad yesterday, and analysts are worried that Iran-linked militias targeted her over the U.S. war in Iran. Details are still hazy. DRC •U.S. firm Virtus Metals finalized its $30 million acquisition of cobalt producer Chemaf - which owns DRC's massive Mutoshi copper-cobalt project - on Friday, thanks in part to U.S. government lobbying driven by a desire to secure non-Chinese sources of critical minerals. •That will make Virtus the largest non-Chinese cobalt miner in DRC, but it faces major financial and operating challenges - including a $1 billion debt burden. Virtus committed to raising $720 million to invest in its new asset, including $250-300 million of capex to finish long-stalled upgrades. •DRC is still actively courting Chinese investment, too. Last week, it signed a new mineral cooperation pact with Beijing that secured China's commitment to share geological data and promote more local processing of raw materials in DRC. •A Congo-focused analyst observed: "The DRC is clearly attempting to hedge its bets."
Open source reportOff Leash update 30March COMING UP THIS WEEK •Wednesday is April Fools' Day and - perhaps relatedly - Edible Book Day. •It's also the 50th anniversary of Steve Jobs and Stephen Wozniak founding Apple Computers. •This is Holy Week for western Christians. Friday is Good Friday (U.S. and EU markets are closed), followed by Easter on Sunday. EU markets are also closed for Easter Monday next week. •OPEC+ producers - Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Oman - meet Sunday to set output targets for May. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,296/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $67,471 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $12,195/ton •Ethereum: $2,065 •Gold: $4,542/toz •Lead: $1,897/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.94/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $100.92/barrel •Zinc: $3,115/ton IRAN •Pres. Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, said he was "hopeful" that negotiations will start this week, and Pakistan said it's preparing to host peace talks. •But while Trump hints at ongoing contact with Iran's "much more reasonable" new leaders, he's simultaneously fueling rumors that he'll abandon talks and "take the oil in Iran" - perhaps by seizing its Kharg Island fuel hub. •Having twice been bombed between rounds of ongoing negotiations, Iran is wary. Its parliament speaker accused the U.S. of "secretly planning a ground invasion" and warned that U.S. troops on the ground inside Iran will be "set on fire." •Israel struck two Iranian nuclear facilities that Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, insists were civilian infrastructure. Araghchi threatened to "exact a heavy price" in retaliation, and Iran later struck a chemical plant in southern Israel. •The war is unpopular in the U.S., where an Economist / YouGov poll found only 36% of respondents approve of how Trump is pursuing it. YEMEN •Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels joined their benefactor's war by resuming missile launches towards Israel for the first time since the U.S. and Israel began striking Iran a month ago. •Israel easily intercepted the incoming Houthi missile, and analysts seem unconcerned that the Houthi's entry into the war will shift its course. That's partly because the Houthis' firepower comes from Iran, and Iran can't afford to divert part of its depleting arsenal just so the Houthis can fire at the same enemy from a different angle. •The Houthis also seem to be refraining from targeting Red Sea shipping, as they did from 2023 until a ceasefire in May 2025. One Chatham House analyst surmised that they hope that Saudi Arabia will reward their restraint with cash. But others suggest the rebels are growing frustrated that Saudi aid hasn't materialized and may abandon their restraint. DRC •Ex-Congolese President Joseph Kabila gave his first major interview in eight years to the NYT. •In the extensive conversation, he hinted that he helped rig the 2018 election to fulfil a power-sharing "agreement" he had struck with his successor, Felix Tshisekedi, with whom he has since spectacularly fallen out. •Kabila now accuses Tshisekedi of trying to assassinate him in a drone strike on Goma earlier this month and slammed "Tshisekedi’s tyranny," warning of the "Sudanization" of DRC - i.e., of political dispute that descends into open conflict. •For its part, Tshisekedi's government accuses Kabila of leading the Rwanda-backed M23 rebellion in the east and has convicted him of treason and sentenced him to death in a trial that Human Rights Watch called "blatantly unfair." •Kabila is now back in DRC, in M23-controlled Goma. When the NYT asked him if he wanted to rule DRC again, he ominously demurred.
Open source reportOff Leash update 27 March IRAN •Pres. Trump demanded that Iran's regime reconsider the 15-point peace proposal it rejected this week, and warned that if they don't then "we'll just keep blowing them out of the water." •Trump also extended his deadline for Iran to fully lift its blockade on the Strait of Hormuz to April 6 - "per Iranian Government request." Trump has threatened to strike Iranian power stations if Tehran doesn't comply with his ultimatum. •Meanwhile, Israel took a more direct approach and assassinated Alireza Tangsiri, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) naval commander who led Iran's blockade and boasted about its success on X. •Iran has reportedly started charging some ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Lloyd's List Intelligence said at least two vessels have paid tolls in yuan after submitting manifests and crew rosters to the IRGC for "geopolitical vetting" and - ironically - sanctions screening. RUSSIA •Citing Western intelligence, The Financial Times reported that Russia is "close to completing a phased shipment of drones, medicine and food to Iran." The drones are thought to be upgraded versions of the Shahed-136s Iran sent to Russia in 2022 with improved navigation systems and a new name: Geran-2. •The Kremlin denounced reports that it's arming Iran as "false information," which means it's probably true information. The NYT reported that "Moscow sees its aid to Iran as a kind of quid pro quo for American aid to Ukraine." •Separately, Pres. Putin assembled a group of oligarchs yesterday to ask them to donate part of their largesse to help fund the war effort. At least two quickly agreed. •It was the first time Putin has directly asked Russian tycoons for help, but not the first time their companies have been shaken down to fill the war chest: some of them paid a 10% one-time windfall tax in 2023, and VAT went up by 2% (to 22%) in January. But those measures alone will only raise about one trillion rubles; Putin's war cost 13 trillion rubles last year alone. UKRAINE •Pres. Zelensky told Reuters that the Trump administration is demanding that he agree to give up parts of the Donbas still under Ukrainian control in exchange for U.S. security guarantees. •Many analysts would agree with Zelensky's assessment that Trump "still chooses a strategy of putting more pressure on the Ukrainian side." •Ukraine ceding control of that strip of the Donbas was one of Russia's firm conditions for ending the war, so by trading U.S. security guarantees for it, Trump is effectively backing Russia's position and assuming the cost of getting Ukraine to agree to it. PAKISTAN AND AFGHANISTAN •Immediately after their temporary Eid ceasefire ended, Pakistan and Afghanistan resumed attacks. Pakistani strikes killed two in Afghanistan, and Afghanistan vowed an "appropriate response." Few expected the brief truce to last beyond the holiday period.
Open source reportOff Leash update 20 March GAZA •As the U.S. and Israel pounded Iran last week, U.S. mediators shared a demilitarization proposal with Iran's Palestinian proxy, Hamas. •The offer demands a "complete handover" and "full decommissioning" of all Hamas weapons - as well as those of all other armed groups in Gaza - and guarantees support for the territory's large-scale rebuilding in return. •Hamas reportedly has about a week to formally respond, but without a biting ultimatum, its leaders will probably stall for more time to strengthen their control over Gaza so they can negotiate a softer commitment to disarmament than this proposal, which one official criticized as a "take it or leave it" offer. IRAN •The European Union and Japan issued a joint statement expressing their "readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait [of Hormuz]," but several officials involved were careful to emphasize that "appropriate efforts" did not include the military support Pres. Trump is asking allies to send. •The WSJ suggested that Trump may try to prove his claim that U.S. forces alone can reopen the strait by deploying around 2,200 Marines to seize several islands in the area and use them as a base to thwart Iranian attacks on commercial shipping. The Marine force is due to arrive from Japan next week. OIL •The U.S. Treasury Department is reportedly considering relaxing sanctions on around 140 million barrels of Iranian oil that's already loaded and at sea, in a bid to ease surging oil prices amidst wartime supply disruptions. •A similar relaxation of Russian oil sanctions last week added about 130 million barrels to the global marketplace and temporarily lowered crude prices, but prices spiked again after Israel escalated attacks on Iranian energy sites. •Critics blasted the idea of gifting two adversaries with windfall profits they can reinvest in the wars they're actively fighting against the U.S. (Iran) or its interests (Russia). •A regulatory consultant quoted in the Washington Post complained: "Two countries that we’ve spent years sanctioning are now the direct beneficiaries of a conflict the United States chose to start." CUBA •As the Trump administration mulls relaxing sanctions on Russian oil, the Kremlin is stress-testing another of its foreign policy priorities: its energy blockade on Cuba. •At least one state-owned (and U.S.-sanctioned) Russian tanker appears to be headed for Cuba to deliver the fuel-starved island 730,000 barrels of crude oil. [In a coy move, the Anatoly Kolodkin is broadcasting its destination as "Atlantis, USA," which is impossible because a) Atlantis doesn't exist, and b) sanctioned vessels are prohibited from docking in real U.S. ports. Tracking analysts say its course points to Cuba.] •The Treasury Department quickly added Cuba to the list of countries barred from buying newly-unsanctioned Russian oil (the others are North Korea, Iran, and Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine). But that's unlikely to stop Russia from testing the U.S. blockade and delivering Cuba's first oil shipment in three months. VENEZUELA •Venezuela's U.S.-backed interim president, Delcy Rodriguez, fired her long-serving defense minister, Gen. Vladimir Padrino López, and other top brass yesterday. •López and the other ousted officials had been loyal to Rodriguez's deposed predecessor, Nicolas Maduro, and likely stood in the way of the reforms the U.S. is pressuring Rodriguez to make. •However, the fact that Rodriguez appointed another long-loyal, U.S.-sanctioned hardliner - military counterintelligence chief Gustavo González - to replace López suggests she's not in a hurry to make meaningful democratic reforms. This reshuffle lets her appear to be taking action while merely consolidating power for herself.
Open source reportOff Leash update 9 March COMING UP THIS WEEK •Today is Commonwealth Day: a celebration of the 56-member Commonwealth of Nations that will be marked by a speech by King Charles III. It's also World Napping Day. •Saturday is my favorite holiday, Pi Day. •On Sunday, Vietnam will vote in national assembly elections, Congo-Brazzaville will hold a sham poll to re-elect incumbent president Denis Sassou Nguesso, and Kazakhstan will hold a constitutional referendum COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,446/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $67,626 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $12,862/ton •Ethereum: $1,991 •Gold: $5,089/toz •Lead: $1,953/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.37/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $103.40/barrel •Zinc: $3,298/ton IRAN •Israel bombed several Iranian fuel depots, causing thick smoke and acid rain. The White House was reportedly surprised by the scale of its ally's attack on (partly) civilian infrastructure and displeased by the prospect that it could backfire by angering ordinary Iranians into supporting their defiant regime. •Global oil prices reached their highest levels since 2022 on concerns that the war - and the oil supply disruptions it's causing - won't end soon. Pres. Trump told Americans that costlier gas is a "very small price" to pay for ridding the world of an evil Iranian regime, but voters may not agree in this mid-term election year. •Analysts are increasingly describing the war as a perilous game of geopolitical chicken, with each side hoping to force the other to surrender first. Iran hopes its attacks on U.S. allies in the Middle East will cause enough damage that those allies will lobby the U.S. and Israel to stop attacking. And Pres. Trump seems to be hoping that the bombardment will eventually force surviving leaders into making a deal to end their attrition. But - as today's NYT pointed out - "[n]either option promises the kind of change many Iranians might be hoping for." •Separately, Iran's Council of Experts appointed Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his father as Supreme Leader. Mojtaba is a quiet figure and his personal views and priorities aren't widely known, but his bloodline and close ties with the security services suggest he's likely to be a hardliner like his father. UKRAINE •Pres. Zelensky proudly boasted that Ukrainian interceptor drones are helping to protect U.S. military bases in Jordan, and may soon be deployed to U.S. bases in Gulf countries. •Ukraine has been battling Russia's Iranian-made Shahed drones in its skies for years, giving it an unparalleled level of experience and expertise defending against drone attacks. •Kyiv now hopes to lend that expertise to the U.S. to curry favor ahead of U.S.-brokered peace talks with Russia, but analysts are skeptical that will help ingratiate Zelensky with Pres. Trump, who continues to blame Ukraine for the failure of truce talks. NEPAL •A new party led by a former rapper, Balendra Shah, won a landslide victory in Nepal's first parliamentary election since Gen Z protests toppled the previous government. •Shah and his Rastriya Swatantra (National Independent Party) won 117 of 165 directly-elected seats. That strong majority also gives Shah a mandate to carry out the reform agenda he campaigned on - and agitated for as a protest leader before entering politics. AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN •Afghanistan's Taliban government said Pakistan attacked five of its border provinces over the weekend, and its defense minister warned that "if Kabul is attacked, Islamabad will be attacked." [Presumably he meant "If Kabul is attacked again:" Pakistan already struck Kabul earlier in this bout of fighting, and Afghanistan didn't retaliate then.] •A tenuous ceasefire ended the last round of skirmishes in October, but it broke down after fresh cross-border attacks reinvigorated Pakistan's drive to eliminate the Pakistani Taliban militants it accuses Afghanistan of harboring. •This time, neither side seems ready to talk peace. But neither can afford to wage a full-blown war over their differences either, so their fight will probably grind on as a low-level war. GUINEA •Guinea's coup leader-cum-president, Mamady Doumbouya, ordered the dissolution of 40 political parties ostensibly for failing to meet their legal and fiscal obligations. •The three largest opposition parties cried foul - though all three were already suspended in August and have few operations left to dissolve. •The country's most visible opposition leader, Cellou Dalein Diallo, called for "direct resistance" but didn't elaborate on what he had in mind.
Open source reportOff Leash update 5 March IRAN •A U.S. Navy submarine sank Iran's IRIS Dena off the coast of Sri Lanka yesterday, marking the first time since 1982 (Argentine Cruiser Belgrano) that a sub-fired torpedo sunk an enemy ship. Sri Lanka's navy rescued 32 Iranian sailors and recovered 87 bodies from the IRIS Dena, which SecDef Hegseth called Iran's "prize warship." Another 60 who were aboard the frigate are still missing. •Iran vowed retaliation, and state media claimed that its navy carried out that threat this morning when it hit a U.S. tanker in the northern Persian Gulf with a missile, causing a fire and an oil spill. That report remains unconfirmed. •Pres. Trump floated the idea of providing affordable insurance for shipping lines transiting the Strait of Hormuz, in an effort to reopen oil supply chains. One-third of seaborne crude and one-fifth of global gas pass through the Strait daily. Several marine insurers are reportedly in talks with the White House about possible facilities. •In another indication that the war is far from over, there are few signs of the defections within the regime or the popular movements organizing to overthrow it that Israel hoped would materialize once its airstrikes delivered the first blows. •Instead, U.S.-allied Iranian Kurdish forces in Iraq are preparing for a possible ground incursion into the north - perhaps in coordination with Israel's Mossad and the U.S. CIA. •Analysts suggest that the new front could distract and draw out some Iranian forces, but doubt it could topple the regime. Iran preemptively targeted the Kurdish force's headquarters in northern Iraq. UKRAINE •Russia blamed Ukraine for sinking a liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker carrying about 61,000 tons of LNG in the eastern Mediterranean on Tuesday. •The Kremlin claimed that Ukrainian forces launched "uncrewed sea drones" from the Libyan coast at the Arctic Metagaz tanker, which appears to have been part of its shadow fleet transporting sanctioned oil. •Meanwhile, Pres. Zelensky said that U.S.-Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks will resume as soon as the situation in the Middle East permits U.S. attention to shift elsewhere. CHINA •China's rubber-stamp parliament, the National People's Congress, set the country's 2026 GDP growth target at 4.5-5.0% yesterday, marking the first time in over 30 years that Beijing has aimed for less than 5% growth. •Citing an analyst, the NYT noted that "the lower target signals that [Beijing] is willing to tolerate slower near-term growth while it focuses on longer-term structural fixes." DRC •Congolese authorities reported that a landslide at DRC's Rubaya coltan mine killed at least 200 artisanal miners, including around 70 children. •The M23 - which controls Rubaya - disputed Kinshasa's official account, saying that it was government "bombings" - not a landslide - that caused the mine to collapse, and claiming that "simply about five" people died - not 200. •[Notably, the M23 didn't dispute that a landslide was the cause of a nearly-identical disaster in late January that killed roughly the same number as the government says died this time.]
Open source reportOff Leash update 2 March COMING UP THIS WEEK •China's National People's Congress - a rubber-stamp parliament - opens its annual meeting Thursday. Analysts expect it to set a slightly lower GDP growth than last year's target: perhaps 4.5% instead of 5.0%. •The Winter Paralympics start Friday in Milan and Cortina d'Ampezzo, Italy. •Colombia votes for its parliament Sunday, which is also International Women's Day and the beginning of Daylight Savings Time in the U.S. (but not in Europe, where clocks change Mar. 29). COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,140/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $66,223 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $13,344/ton •Ethereum: $1,951 •Gold: $5,392/toz •Lead: $1,962/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.01/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $72.21/barrel - Some analysts expect this to rise to $85-90 when markets open today because of Iran's naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following U.S. and Israeli strikes over the weekend. •Zinc: $3,317/ton IRAN •The U.S. and Israel bombed Iran on Saturday morning, targeting a daytime gathering of senior Iranian figures - including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei - in some of their opening strikes. •Iranian state media confirmed early rumors that Khamenei was killed in the strikes. Many Iranians cheered his death and the end of his 37-year theocratic reign; others - largely religious ultraconservatives - mourned his loss. •The regime announced 40 days of mourning and said the constitutionally-defined process of appointing his successor would begin immediately and could anoint the next Ayatollah within days. •Candidates include his son, Mojtaba; his loyal aide, Ali Larijani; and several hardline clerics. Whoever is picked will immediately have a target on their back. That said, all the top candidates probably already do: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said his military has "thousands more targets" in its sights. •The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) vowed to avenge Khamenei's death, but much of the IRGC's leadership - including its top commander - died with him. •The decapitated IRGC still retaliated by launching ballistic missiles at Israel and several countries in the region that host U.S. military bases. Most were easily intercepted, but some caused damage and a few caused casualties - including the deaths of three U.S. soldiers. •The ongoing exchange of fire has caused widespread flight cancellations, and both sides seem bent on further escalation. In particular, Iran's navy is reportedly carrying out the IRGC's threat to choke off shipping in the vital waterway, through which 31% of all seaborne crude oil passes. •In a social media post, Pres. Trump called on Iranians to finish the job: "When we are finished, take over your government." It's not clear whether the battered, unarmed, and disorganized opposition will heed his call to rise up, but leaving the hard part to them lets Trump avoid sending ground troops into what could become another Middle Eastern quagmire. LEBANON •Iran's strongest remaining proxy, Hezbollah, then joined Iran's side by lobbing missiles towards Israel from Lebanon. Israel promptly retaliated with a barrage of airstrikes on Hezbollah areas in Lebanon. •Israel's quick, decisive action against Hezbollah was embarrassing for the Lebanese government, which promised Israel it would rein in the militia as a condition of their Nov. 2024 ceasefire, but has made little progress doing so out of fears of a confrontation that the weak Lebanese army might lose. UKRAINE •Ukrainian officials said Russia had agreed to some facets of the post-war security guarantees the U.S. proposed. The two sides still need to resolve the other sticking point of land trades, and Moscow could still renege on its pinky promise on security guarantees. PAKISTAN AND AFGHANISTAN •Afghanistan's Taliban government said its military fired anti-aircraft missiles that successfully deterred Pakistani jets threatening Bagram Air Base. •Bagram holds significant symbolic importance for the Taliban: the captured U.S. base holds Afghanistan's largest runway and hosts annual military parades each year on the anniversary of the Taliban's return to power. •Its destruction would be a much bigger loss for the Taliban than the small ammunition depots Pakistan targeted in its first wave of cross-border strikes last week. VENEZUELA •Venezuela's opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado, announced in a social media post that she plans to return to her home country in the coming weeks. •Machado left Venezuela in December to attend the Nobel award ceremony in Oslo, where she collected her Nobel Peace Prize. •Before she left, Nicolas Maduro's government charged her with a litany of crimes and ominously warned that she wouldn't be allowed to return if she left. •Maduro's former vice president and successor, Interim President Delcy Rodriguez, may only be slightly more lenient on her: Rodriguez recently said Machado will have to "answer to Venezuela" for advocating for U.S. military intervention in Caracas.
Open source reportOff Leash update 5 Feb UKRAINE •A new survey of Ukrainians found that 40% now say they're open to the idea of giving up the Donbas region in exchange for security guarantees. That's a major shift from earlier in the war, when 82% firmly opposed ceding territory to Russia. •Among those willing to give up the Donbas are residents of the Russian-occupied eastern region, who say they'd be willing to leave their homes behind if doing so assured peace. •That said, a majority of Ukrainians - 60% - still oppose ceding the Donbas to Russia, and many say they'd consider it a betrayal if Pres. Zelensky offers such a concession. Some expressed doubt that the security guarantors would truly come to Ukraine's aid if (cynics say when) Russia attacks again. •The idea of swapping the Donbas for security guarantees is one of the questions Ukrainian, Russian, and American negotiators are discussing in their second day of talks in Abu Dhabi today. IRAN •The U.S. and Iran confirmed they'll start talks tomorrow - though the White House says they'll take place in Oman (rather than Istanbul, as initially reported). •In a sign that both sides are taking the talks seriously, both are sending their most senior negotiators aside from their respective presidents: Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will represent the U.S., and Iran is sending its Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi. •Witkoff and Araghchi have reportedly exchanged occasional text messages in recent months, but the last time they spoke directly was before the U.S. and Israel bombed Iran's nuclear sites in June. •Meanwhile, Iranian authorities are making some belated and insufficient efforts to try to soothe seething public anger over the brutal crackdown on protests that killed thousands last month. •Yesterday, the government unveiled a new website that Iranians can use to report the names of loved ones killed in the demonstrations who were not included on the government's initial official list of 2,986 names confirmed to have died (another 131 deaths were officially confirmed and included in the government's death toll of 3,117 but not named yet). •Rights groups say the new government webform is essentially an online trash can: names submitted to it have not been added to the separate official list, which remains incomplete and riddled with errors. CHINA •Presidents Trump and Xi spoke by phone yesterday for what Trump called an "excellent" and "long and thorough" call. •When the leaders last spoke in October, they avoided the thorny topic of Taiwan. •This time they did not - though Trump and Xi offered differing accounts of their discussion on the self-governing territory, which China claims. •Trump's readout suggested Taiwan was just one of many subjects they covered, while Chinese state media portrayed it as the focal point of the call and said Xi told Trump it's "the most important issue in China-U.S. relations" and warned Trump to "handle arms sales to Taiwan with extreme caution."
Open source reportOff Leash update 30 Dec VENEZUELA •Pres. Trump acknowledged that a CIA drone strike about a week ago destroyed a Venezuelan dock allegedly used by Tren de Aragua drug traffickers to export their wares, marking what seems to be the first known land strike on Venezuela. •Trump declined to share more details, and Nicolas Maduro's government has only referred to the incident obliquely - perhaps to downplay concerns about escalation and calls for retaliation. •Separately, another Operation Southern Spear boat strike in the eastern Pacific killed two yesterday. UKRAINE •Pres. Zelensky reported that Pres. Trump offered Ukraine 15 years of security guarantees during their meeting on Sunday. That's far short of the indefinite guarantees Zelensky had sought, but Zelensky seemed content to compromise in the interest of resolving the remaining bigger differences of position. •Rumors suggest Trump may next host a new round of negotiations next month with Zelensky as well as European leaders (some of whom joined by phone this time). ISRAEL •Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu visited Pres. Trump at Mar-a-Lago yesterday for talks that were amiable but produced no big breakthroughs on Trump's Gaza peace plan. •Netanyahu secured one key win, though: he got Trump's assurance that the U.S. would back Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites if Iran continues to develop its weapons programs. IRAN •Protesters demonstrated in Tehran yesterday against rising inflation after preliminary December data showed an annualized inflation rate of 42.2%. •Pres. Pezeshkian has repeatedly conceded that he's out of ideas to fix Iran's ailing economy, and the resignation of his central bank chief yesterday certainly won't help. •An academic paraphrased in the NYT sees two ways Iran can escape the looming inflationary spiral: "It could change its relationship with the United States in exchange for relief on sanctions...or drastically cut government spending, but neither option appears likely." Instead, further inflation seems more probable. CHINA •China is seeking to supplant the U.S. as the lead peacemaker between Thailand and Cambodia. After Pres. Trump claimed a role in closing the initial 72-hour truce, China stepped in to host the next round of talks on a more permanent ceasefire yesterday and today. •Beijing's foreign ministry implicitly boasted that its mediation style was less pushy than the U.S. approach: "China’s efforts to promote peace and dialogue never impose on others or overstep its bounds."
Open source reportOff Leash update 29 Dec COMING UP THIS WEEK •China is staging a sixth round of live-fire war games around Taiwan today and tomorrow in a potential response to the record $11.1 billion arms deal the U.S. announced with Taiwan earlier this month. •Thursday is New Year's Day and many global markets are closed. •Thursday also marks two big changes in Europe: Bulgaria will adopt the Euro as the 21st member of the eurozone currency union, and Cyprus will assume the rotating presidency of the Council of Europe from Denmark. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,961/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $87,882 •Cobalt: $52,790/ton •Copper: $12,163/ton - near record highs on supply constraints, surging demand due to green energy transitions and trade policy uncertainty •Ethereum: $2,970 •Gold: $4,468/toz - another record high on demand for safe haven assets •Lead: $1,995/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.38/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $57.90/barrel •Zinc: $3,091/ton RUSSIA AND UKRAINE •Yesterday, Pres. Trump spoke with Russia's Pres. Putin by phone and then met Ukraine's Pres. Zelensky in person to discuss ideas for ending the war between Russia and Ukraine. •Trump expressed cautious optimism after his meetings, saying Russia and Ukraine are "maybe very close" to a ceasefire. Zelensky seemed to agree and estimated that the current peace proposal was "90 percent" complete. •The Kremlin appeared less enthused. Putin's aides publicly disparaged several key provisions of the proposal - including the idea of European peacekeepers upholding the truce in Ukraine - after Putin discussed it with Trump. THAILAND AND CAMBODIA •Thailand and Cambodia signed a fresh 72-hour ceasefire agreement to end another brief bout of border clashes. •The truce - which started at noon on Saturday - seems to be mostly holding up, but it does little to resolve the longstanding and complex territorial disputes underlying recent flare-ups. •Nonetheless, neither side appears interested in broadening their war, and both are likely to embrace an uneasy detente for now. GUINEA •Guinea voted for president yesterday. Provisional results are due tomorrow, with final results to follow within two weeks. •Coup leader Mamady Doumbouya is slated to win in the first round, despite initially insisting he had no plans to run and running on an uninspiring platform promising to "make Guinea an emerging country." •Doumbouya's junta barred several popular rivals from running against him, which helped his vote count but weakened the legitimacy he hoped the election would confer on his rule. •He'll now face the tall task of responsibly managing Guinea's resources - and especially its massive bauxite reserves. So far, Doumbouya has taken a pragmatic approach to resource development by accepting attractive and non-exclusive investments from diverse partners. •However, his government has kept a close hold on its mining deal details, and has yet to show how it plans to manage its windfall proceeds. SOMALILAND •On Friday, Israel became the first country to recognize the long-sought independence of the breakaway territory of Somaliland, which has been governing itself mostly peacefully since 1991 but remains part of Somalia on maps and at the UN. •Israel aims to revive momentum for the stalled Abraham Accords, a series of U.S.-brokered agreements it signed to normalize diplomatic relations with four Arab nations in 2020 that have since added only one new signatory: Kazakhstan in 2025. •For its part, Somaliland is desperate for any recognition, and hopes that Israel's opening move will inspire more of the 20 nations that Pres. Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi says are on the cusp of recognition to take the leap. •Israel's recognition drew widespread condemnation from multiple angles. Somalia's federal government in Mogadishu and its allies decried the move as a violation of sovereignty and territorial integrity. •Other countries contending with their own self-determined separatist groups - like Morocco and Nigeria - were particularly quick to condemn it, lest it inspire new rebellions elsewhere. •And Yemen's Houthi rebels warned that they would consider any Israeli presence in Somaliland - which lies across the Gulf of Aden from Houthi-controlled southern Yemen - to be "a military target for our armed forces." [In fairness, Israel may indeed be eyeing Somaliland as a base from which to target Houthi positions across the Gulf.] YEMEN •Following weeks of speculation, the Saudi Arabia-led coalition in Yemen formally warned Southern Transition Council (STC) separatists to withdraw from parts of Hadramaut province that they captured earlier this month or risk being "dealt with directly and immediately." •The warning came a day after Saudi apparently "dealt with" STC affiliates by launching airstrikes on their positions in Hadramaut. •Saudi officials declined to comment on the airstrikes and appear to be handling the issue gently to avoid stirring trouble with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which is generally a staunch Saudi ally but also supports the STC in Yemen. Both Saudi and the UAE seem keen to resolve their differences politely and behind closed doors rather than through proxies in Yemen. SYRIA •Islamic State splinter group Ansar al-Sunna claimed that it collaborated with "jihadists from another group" to carry out a mosque bombing in Homs that killed at least eight people in an Alawite area of Homs on Friday. •That sparked large protests in other predominantly Alawite parts of Syria, including Latakia, against the new government's failure to protect the Alawite minority from what they see as reprisal attacks for their loyalty to deposed dictator Bashar Al Assad (who is also an Alawite). •Syria's central government condemned the mosque attack and called for calm.
Open source reportOff Leash update 17 Dec VENEZUELA •In a Truth Social post, Pres. Trump said he had designated Nicolas Maduro's government a foreign terrorist organization and announced a "A TOTAL AND COMPLETE BLOCKADE OF ALL SANCTIONED OIL TANKERS going into, and out of, Venezuela." •While that sounds severe, analysts point out that the emphasis on sanctioned tankers suggests this will be more of a redoubling of ongoing U.S. naval operations against regime-linked boats in the Caribbean than a true blockade. •It won't affect Chevron's legal exports of Venezuelan oil; nor will it threaten legal shipments of other goods to and from Venezuela. And with global oil markets well supplied and China - as the main buyer of Venezuelan oil - unlikely to enthusiastically enforce sanctions, it likely won't have a lasting effect on oil prices either. •The new terrorist designation will, however, facilitate more seizures of sanctioned oil tankers. The U.S. is monitoring around 18 fully-loaded, sanctioned tankers in Venezuelan waters, and Axios reported that it plans to seize any that enter international waters. •The designation could also help build a case for the land strikes and direct military action Trump has repeatedly threatened against Venezuela. •The new measures will also further hobble Venezuela's ailing economy. Since oil is Venezuela's main source of export earnings, the blockade is likely to exacerbate already-high inflation and lead to a fresh surge in outbound migration. UKRAINE •U.S. and European officials wrapped up two days of meetings on Ukraine in Berlin after making some minor progress on possible ceasefire terms. •One new aspect of the tabled peace proposal would see U.S. intelligence and European troops reinforce Ukraine's post-war security and help deter a repeat Russian invasion in the future. Russia will certainly reject that idea; it didn't even bother to respond to the far more favorable plan the U.S. initially proposed. SAHEL •In an interview with pro-Kremlin media outlet TASS, Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister - Sergey Vershinin - accused the West of "waging a large-scale campaign to destabilize the situation" in the junta-run Sahel states of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. •That's an odd accusation from an official representing the country that gained the most from the destabilizing coups that overthrew elected governments in all three Sahel countries. While there's no direct evidence that Russia was involved an any of the putschs, it was quick to capitalize on the opportunity to bolster each junta with no-strings-attached security support in exchange for mineral access. CRITICAL MINERALS •The European Union (EU) outlined a plan to lower its ambitions for replacing combustion engine vehicles with greener models - in part to reduce the costly compliance burden that lofty green targets have forced on struggling European automakers. •Instead of requiring EU-made vehicles to eliminate 100% of their carbon emissions by 2035, the new target would aim for a 90% reduction in emissions. That means carmakers could still produce hybrids and internal combustion engine cars after 2035 - though fewer of them than they're making now. •If adopted, the plan would reduce EU carmakers' demand for battery minerals like cobalt and rare earths. It's seen as a particularly welcome reprieve for the EU's luxury carmakers like Porsche, Mercedes-Benz, and BMW, who have struggled more with the green transition than their mass-market counterparts.
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 Dec VENEZUELA •Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Corina Machado was expected to accept her award in person in Norway yesterday, but she never showed up. •A Nobel official told media that Machado was "unfortunately not in Norway." That would seem to suggest she's still in Venezuela, since the hardest part of her trip would've been escaping the authoritarian regime that has banned her from traveling abroad for the past 10 years. •Separately, two U.S. F/A-18 fighter jets circled the Gulf of Venezuela for about 40 minutes yesterday, marking the closest that U.S. military aircraft have come to Venezuelan airspace since Operation Southern Sentinel began in September. •A U.S. military official said the flights were not intended to be provocative, but Nicolas Maduro's government will surely feel threatened by the proximity of U.S. jets to Venezuela's richest oil regions. DRC •Rwanda-backed (and Rwanda-armed) M23 rebels advanced toward Uvira, which is the last major city in eastern DRC that's still under Kinshasa's control. •Around 200,000 civilians have already fled the latest round of fighting - most of which has taken place after DRC and Rwanda signed a U.S.-brokered ceasefire at the White House. •DRC's Pres. Tshisekedi explicitly blamed his Rwandan counterpart, Pres. Kagame, for the ongoing conflict: "This is a proxy war aimed at challenging our sovereignty over a highly strategic area, rich in critical minerals and economic potential that is crucial to the future of our nation." •Rwanda counter-accused DRC and Burundi of violating the truce, too, but DRC and Burundi are not sending troops SAM systems, laser guided anti tank weapons, EW jamming systems and armed drones into Rwanda like Rwanda is into DRC. •Separately, Glencore became the first company to export cobalt from DRC under the country's new quota framework. •Glencore has only exported a small test batch of cobalt and is still sitting on a massive stockpile of cobalt that it mined as a byproduct of copper extraction during the export ban and as it deciphered the new, post-ban rules. •Its cautious small test shipment - and the fact that other miners continue to stockpile instead of even testing exporting - suggests the new rules remain opaque and hard to comply with. THAILAND AND CAMBODIA •Thai and Cambodian troops continued to clash along their shared border, sending hundreds of thousands of civilians fleeing to shelters they hadn't bothered to deconstruct after the last bout of skirmishes subsided in July (which perhaps offers some insight into the low confidence the local population placed in that truce's staying power). •Both sides continue to blame the other and insist they're only acting in self defense against the other's aggressions. •So far, the casualty count has remained fairly low compared to the escalating rhetoric: Cambodia says intruding Thai soldiers have killed just six civilians this week. •Pres. Trump - who was present when Thailand and Cambodia formalized their truce in October - said he'd "have to make a phone call" today to try to revive the ceasefire. CHINA •Pres. Trump said he would allow semiconductor giant Nvidia to export its H200 chips to "approved customers" in China who will use them to develop artificial intelligence models. •The H200 is a generation behind Nvidia's latest chips, which is probably part of why Trump felt comfortable sharing it with China. (China hawks have successfully lobbied to bar Chinese companies from using the latest U.S. chip tech.) •Another factor behind Trump's decision could be the 25% royalty the U.S. government will reportedly collect on H200 sales to Chinese customers. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 26 Nov UKRAINE •Pres. Trump relaxed his deadline for Ukraine to agree to the peace plan its negotiators have been discussing with their U.S. counterparts. Trump's earlier (soft) deadline had been tomorrow; he now says "the deadline for me is when it's over." •That reprieve will give Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, time to meet Pres. Putin in Moscow next week to coax Putin into signing a peace deal. So far Putin has expressed little interest in peace - even on the favorable terms of the current proposal. BRAZIL •Brazil's Supreme Court ordered ex-Pres. Bolsonaro to start his 27-year prison sentence as his appeal possibilities dwindle. •Pres. Trump imposed harsh sanctions on Brazil earlier this year as punishment for prosecuting his political ally, but he abruptly lifted most of the new levies on food goods late last week - despite Brazil's defiant pursuit of Bolsonaro's conviction. •Some analysts think Trump's tariff threats backfired and gave leftist Pres. Lula a popularity boost and a chance to portray himself as an underdog standing up to a bully. VENEZUELA •Caracas was offended that several airlines - including Iberia, Gol, Latam, Avianca, TAP, and Turkish Airlines - temporarily paused flights to and from Venezuela because of a U.S. FAA warning, and Venezuela's aviation authority, INAC, ordered the airlines to resume flights within 48 hours or risk losing their flight clearance altogether. •IATA, a global aviation association, warned Venezuela that revoking clearances would backfire and further reduce "connectivity to the country, which is already one of the least connected in the region." GAZA •Hamas returned the remains of an unnamed hostage that Israeli examiners later identified as Dror Or. That leaves just two deceased hostages left in Gaza. URBANIZATION •A new UN report ranked the Indonesian capital of Jakarta as the world's most populous city, with 42 million people. Jakarta was only the 33rd largest city when the previous ranking was done in 2018, but it has since grown fast enough to outrank all 32 then-larger cities. •Dhaka, Bangladesh is now the world's second most populous city, and it's growing even faster than Jakarta is. The UN projects that Dhaka's population - currently 36 million - will surpass that of Jakarta by mid-century. •The report also noted that 45% of the world's 8.2 billion people now live in cities. That's more than twice the share of urban dwellers in 1950 (20%). •Nine of the world's 10 largest cities are in Asia; Cairo (32 million, #4) is the only non-Asian city in the top 10.
Open source reportOff Leash update 17 Nov COMING UP THIS WEEK •Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) will visit the White House tomorrow. Pres. Trump hopes to convince his guest to sign onto the Abraham Accords, but MBS seems to have little interest in (or incentive for) normalizing relations with Israel. •The Ashes cricket tournament starts Friday in Perth. •South Africa hosts the G20 summit next weekend. Pres. Trump is not only skipping the summit; he has also called for this year's host to be expelled from the bloc "because what's happened there is bad." [Trump accuses South Africa's leadership of failing to protect white farmers from violence; South African officials dispute Trump's claims that whites are disproportionately affected.] •Guinea-Bissau holds general elections on Sunday, but it won't be a fair vote: the Supreme Court ruled the largest party's popular presidential nominee ineligible for missing the registration deadline. He filed six days early. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,859/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $95,597 - down over 20% from its October peak due to liquidity issues and a broader sell-off of tech and crypto assets. •Cobalt: $48,570/ton •Copper: $10,852/ton •Ethereum: $3,202 •Gold: $4,080/toz •Lead: $2,064/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.47/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $60.09/barrel •Zinc: $3,021/ton VENEZUElA •The U.S. will designate Venezuela's Cartel de los Soles as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) starting next Monday, Nov. 24. The Trump administration accuses Venezuela's autocrat, Nicolas Maduro, of leading the Cartel de los Soles, so the group's designation as an FTO will essentially designate Maduro as a terrorist, too. •The designation will allow the U.S. to crack down on alleged cartel members and anyone doing business with them. It could potentially also bolster the case for targeting Maduro and his associates with direct strikes - as some (including Maduro) believe the U.S. is preparing to do with Operation Southern Spear. •Pres. Trump told reporters on Saturday that Maduro "would like to talk." Trump also teased that he has "sort of made up my mind" about whether or not to order a land strike on Venezuela, but he declined to elaborate on either his military plans or the possibility of peace talks instead. •Separately, another Operation Southern Spear naval strike killed three more alleged drug traffickers on Saturday. DRC •DRC and Rwanda-backed M23 rebels signed a new ceasefire framework in Qatar. •From what I can tell, the new agreement adds absolutely nothing to what they'd already agreed. It merely reiterates the easy terms they'd already agreed to - like vague plans to swap prisoners and establish a ceasefire oversight body - while continuing to punt the thornier issues - including control of M23-held areas, resettlement of displaced people, and humanitarian aid access to battle zones - further into the future. •Delegates gave themselves two weeks to work out the thornier six "chapters" of an eight-part ceasefire. Two years would be a more reasonable timeframe - but still ambitious, given the complexity of their deep-rooted conflict. CHILE •Chile's first round of voting yesterday sent the presidential election to a polarizing runoff between polar opposite candidates to take place next month. •Ultraconservative lawmaker José Antonio Kast fared surprisingly well and appears to have the upper hand against Jeannette Jara of the ruling Communist Party in the runoff: Kast won 24% of first-round votes to Jara's 27%, but he's likely to pick up supporters of several conservative also-rans, while she was the only liberal candidate in the first round - and is thus unlikely to gain much incremental support in the runoff. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 17 Nov COMING UP THIS WEEK •Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) will visit the White House tomorrow. Pres. Trump hopes to convince his guest to sign onto the Abraham Accords, but MBS seems to have little interest in (or incentive for) normalizing relations with Israel. •The Ashes cricket tournament starts Friday in Perth. •South Africa hosts the G20 summit next weekend. Pres. Trump is not only skipping the summit; he has also called for this year's host to be expelled from the bloc "because what's happened there is bad." [Trump accuses South Africa's leadership of failing to protect white farmers from violence; South African officials dispute Trump's claims that whites are disproportionately affected.] •Guinea-Bissau holds general elections on Sunday, but it won't be a fair vote: the Supreme Court ruled the largest party's popular presidential nominee ineligible for missing the registration deadline. He filed six days early. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,859/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $95,597 - down over 20% from its October peak due to liquidity issues and a broader sell-off of tech and crypto assets. •Cobalt: $48,570/ton •Copper: $10,852/ton •Ethereum: $3,202 •Gold: $4,080/toz •Lead: $2,064/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.47/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $60.09/barrel •Zinc: $3,021/ton VENEZUElA •The U.S. will designate Venezuela's Cartel de los Soles as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) starting next Monday, Nov. 24. The Trump administration accuses Venezuela's autocrat, Nicolas Maduro, of leading the Cartel de los Soles, so the group's designation as an FTO will essentially designate Maduro as a terrorist, too. •The designation will allow the U.S. to crack down on alleged cartel members and anyone doing business with them. It could potentially also bolster the case for targeting Maduro and his associates with direct strikes - as some (including Maduro) believe the U.S. is preparing to do with Operation Southern Spear. •Pres. Trump told reporters on Saturday that Maduro "would like to talk." Trump also teased that he has "sort of made up my mind" about whether or not to order a land strike on Venezuela, but he declined to elaborate on either his military plans or the possibility of peace talks instead. •Separately, another Operation Southern Spear naval strike killed three more alleged drug traffickers on Saturday. DRC •DRC and Rwanda-backed M23 rebels signed a new ceasefire framework in Qatar. •From what I can tell, the new agreement adds absolutely nothing to what they'd already agreed. It merely reiterates the easy terms they'd already agreed to - like vague plans to swap prisoners and establish a ceasefire oversight body - while continuing to punt the thornier issues - including control of M23-held areas, resettlement of displaced people, and humanitarian aid access to battle zones - further into the future. •Delegates gave themselves two weeks to work out the thornier six "chapters" of an eight-part ceasefire. Two years would be a more reasonable timeframe - but still ambitious, given the complexity of their deep-rooted conflict. CHILE •Chile's first round of voting yesterday sent the presidential election to a polarizing runoff between polar opposite candidates to take place next month. •Ultraconservative lawmaker José Antonio Kast fared surprisingly well and appears to have the upper hand against Jeannette Jara of the ruling Communist Party in the runoff: Kast won 24% of first-round votes to Jara's 27%, but he's likely to pick up supporters of several conservative also-rans, while she was the only liberal candidate in the first round - and is thus unlikely to gain much incremental support in the runoff. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 7 Nov UKRAINE •After 21 months of grueling battle, Russia appears to be on the verge of capturing the Donbas city of Pokrovsk - though Ukraine insists its forces are still resisting and are not cut off yet. •The fall of Pokrovsk would be Russia's biggest battlefield gain since seizing Bakhmut over two years ago, and it would give Russian forces a base for further advances in the Donbas. •More importantly, it would give Pres. Putin a minor win to bolster his case to Pres. Trump that Russian victory is inevitable - and thus that sending U.S. weapons to Ukraine is folly. CENTRAL ASIA •Pres. Trump hosted leaders of the C5+1 bloc (comprising 5 "Stans" - Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan - and the U.S.) for a summit focused on strengthening partnerships on critical minerals and energy yesterday. •The C5 Stans are rich in uranium, copper, gold, and rare earths; but all maintain strong (but complicated) ties with Moscow as a legacy of the Soviet era. •Ahead of the White House meeting, Kazakhstan announced that it plans to join the Abraham Accords - a series of agreements normalizing diplomatic relations between Israel and its countersignatories. •Kazakhstan already has full diplomatic relations and strong economic ties with Israel, so it has nothing left to gain from signing the Abraham Accords. Rather, its ceremonial inclusion may be a way to reinvigorate momentum for the deprioritized agreements. RUSSIA •After years of warnings that NATO had fallen far behind Russia on ammunition manufacturing, the alliance's Secretary-General, Mark Rutte, announced that NATO members are now collectively producing as many units per month as Russia is. •That may not sound like a big achievement for a bloc with a combined GDP 25 times Russia's, but it took massive investment in new and expanded production lines to overcome the gaping lead Russia had: just five months ago, Russia was making four times as much ammunition as NATO's 32 members. LIBYA •Libya's National Oil Corporation (NOC) announced a significant new onshore oil discovery in well H1-NC4 of the Ghadames Basin southwest of Tripoli. •NOC's new discovery follows OMV's find in the Sirte Basin last week, and both are signs of renewed confidence in investing in Libya's rich oil and gas potential. •Other companies are keen to join the rush, too: NOC head Masoud Suleiman recently reported that 40 firms expressed interest in the 22 oil exploration blocks being offered in the latest bidding round - which was Libya's first in over 17 years.
Open source reportOff Leash update 3 Nov COMING UP THIS WEEK •The U.S. votes in mid-term elections on Tuesday. The most-watched races include New York City's mayoral contest, heated gubernatorial polls in Virginia and New Jersey, and California's Prop. 50 on redistricting (to supporters) / gerrymandering (to those opposed). •Sunday marks the 36th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,884/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $107,777 •Cobalt: $48,570/ton •Copper: $10,888/ton •Ethereum: $3,733 •Gold: $4,022/toz •Lead: $2,017/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.28/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $60.76/barrel •Zinc: $3,056/ton GAZA •Hamas returned the remains of three more hostages, including U.S. citizen Omer Neutra. •Despite Israeli claims otherwise, Hamas maintains that it's working as fast as it can to locate and return the remains of the other eight hostages who died in captivity over the course of the two-year war. •Meanwhile, an Israeli airstrike killed one man who was allegedly threatening Israeli troops near Gaza City. LEBANON •Israel is growing frustrated with the Lebanese government's lack of progress disarming Hezbollah, and has taken up the task of targeting Hezbollah operatives in southern Lebanon with near-daily airstrikes in recent weeks. •Lebanon's Pres. Aoun resents the intrusions and wants Israeli troops to leave the five areas of southern Lebanon that they still occupy. Aoun has called on Israel to negotiate a more permanent ceasefire than the fragile (but lasting) truce they signed a year ago. •However, Israel seems uninterested in negotiating while Aoun's government is failing to uphold its commitment to contain and disarm Hezbollah. [Analysts point out that Aoun's Lebanese Armed Forces are weaker than Hezbollah and he can't do much to force disarmament.] •Prime Minister Netanyahu warned of further Israeli action against Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, and blamed Iran for backing both Hezbollah and the Houthis. TANZANIA •Tanzania's election commission confirmed Samia Suluhu Hassan - who appointed its commissioners - as the winner of last week's presidential election, with an unsurprising 98% of the vote. The commission also dubiously claimed that turnout was around 75% higher than in 2020, when voters had more of a choice of candidates. •Hassan's win was essentially uncontested this time, since her government barred both real rivals from running. It also tried to prevent unhappy Tanzanians from protesting against the election by imposing a nationwide curfew, restricting internet access, and condescendingly calling critics of the undemocratic poll "neither responsible nor patriotic." •The main opposition party, CHADEMA - whose leader is imprisoned awaiting sentencing on spurious charges - claims security officers have killed hundreds of protesters. Demonstrations continue, despite Hassan's crackdown. CHINA •U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said China made a "real mistake" by proposing since-postponed export control restrictions on rare earths, since the threat alone motivated the U.S. to get serious about finding alternative sources for its rare earths needs. •Australia is one of the alternative sources being developed: Pres. Trump and Prime Minister Albanese recently signed an agreement to jointly develop Australia's rare earth supplies. •Incidentally, Bessent's comments felt like a close parallel to the effect that U.S. export controls on advanced computing chips have had on Chinese chipmaking, where supply restrictions forced fast-track domestic innovators to quickly catch up to technologies they were barred from importing. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 30 Oct CHINA •Presidents Trump and Xi met in person for the first time in six years yesterday. •It sounds like their nearly two-hour meeting went well: Trump said he would rate it a 12 on a scale of 1 to 10, and Xi said it had given him a "warm" feeling - which is probably about a 12 out of 10 on Xi's understated emotive scale. •Afterwards, Trump told reporters he would lower tariffs on most Chinese imports from 57% to 47%, and said that Xi had agreed in return to buy more U.S. soybeans, to drop restrictions on rare earths exports for a year, and to help crack down on fentanyl. RUSSIA •Just before he met Xi, Trump announced that the U.S. will soon resume nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with other countries, ending a 33-year moratorium on tests. [Insightful analysts pointed out that the "equal basis" qualifier suggests Trump is talking about testing delivery vehicles and other supporting components and not actual nuclear weapons, which no country except North Korea has tested since 1996.] •Many quickly assumed that Trump's announcement was intended to scare Xi ahead of their meeting, but Trump later clarified that his threat wasn't directed at China at all: "it had to do with others." •Trump was likely instead referring to Russia and reacting to a pair of announcements Pres. Putin made this week celebrating two separate tests of nuclear delivery systems. On Sunday, Putin said the nuclear-capable Burevestnik missile had passed its tests and would soon be deployed. Then yesterday, Putin lauded the successful test of a new, nuclear-capable underwater drone - dubbed Poseidon after the Greek god of the sea and storms - designed to trigger a tsunami. •Trump previously called Putin's Burevestnik announcement "inappropriate" and urged Putin to spend his energy on peace talks instead of weapons tests. SUDAN •The World Health Organization raised concerns over credible reports that Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) killed 460 people in the main hospital in El Fasher upon capturing the state capital from the army over the weekend. •That was only one of several documented claims that the RSF is committing ethnically-targeted atrocities in El Fasher. •RSF chief Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (aka Hemedti) unconvincingly promised to investigate the concerning accusations against his troops, but the U.S., UN, and others are calling for urgent, genuine action to prevent what many fear could become another full-blown genocide in Darfur. AFGHANISTAN •Afghanistan and Pakistan agreed to resume peace talks in Istanbul after their previous round of dialogue broke down without a resolution. •It's hard to imagine a second round of talks breaking through the intractable impasse that doomed the first one: Kabul will likely continue to deny having any sway over the Pakistani Taliban militants that Islamabad accuses the Afghan Taliban of protecting. But both at least seem to agree on avoiding a costly war over their differences. BRAZIL •Rio de Janeiro's favela raid on the Red Command crime syndicate had already ranked as the city's deadliest of its kind when police estimated they'd killed 60 gangsters. Now - upon counting bodies in a nearby wooded area - the death toll has doubled to 132, including four police. •Police arrested another 113 people and seized 118 weapons and a metric ton of drugs, validating the allegations underpinning their raid. But that hasn't stopped rights groups from criticizing their heavy-handed tactics - or leftists from complaining that the raid was part of a political gambit by Rio's conservative governor, Cláudio Castro, to look tough on crime ahead of next year's elections. •Castro may yet order more raids, as this one failed to capture its main target, senior Red Command leader Edgar Alves Andrade (aka Doca). Doca remains on the lam despite 20 outstanding warrants for his arrest and a R$100,000 ($18,660) bounty on him. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 27 Oct COMING UP THIS WEEK •Tanzania votes for president on Wednesday, but the ruling CCM party has already assured victory for its incumbent, Samia Suluhu Hassan. More on that below. •Pres. Trump began a six-day trip to Southeast Asia yesterday, and already has a peace agreement - between Cambodia and Thailand - and several trade deals to show for it. •Trump will also attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit starting Friday in South Korea, but the conference itself is less of a focus than Trump's planned meeting on its sidelines with China's Pres. Xi on Thursday. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,859/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $115,274 •Cobalt: $48,570/ton •Copper: $10,963/ton •Ethereum: $4,168 •Gold: $4,045/toz •Lead: $2,017/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.30/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $60.86/barrel •Zinc: $3,026/ton ARGENTINA •Pres. Milei's party won over 40% of the vote in yesterday's legislative poll, handing Milei a resounding mandate for his austerity programs. The results also give Milei numerical license to pursue tough reforms: he now has enough legislative support to block his vetoes from being overturned. TANZANIA •Tanzania's ruling CCM party has engaged in some brazen lawfare to ensure that Pres. Samia Suluhu Hassan, who inherited the presidency after her predecessor died in 2021, will win Wednesday's presidential election. •The two main opposition parties, Chadema and ACT-Wazalendo, were barred from running - lest voters see through CCM's questionable logic that the best way to tackle the country's festering economic challenges is to reelect the party that has failed to address them. •Instead of implementing policies to arrest rising poverty and inequality, Hassan's government has spent recent months arresting its critics. Dozens of opposition figures - and even outspoken CCM reformers - have disappeared, and authorities seem (justifiably) afraid of mass "Gen Z" protests around the election. IVORY COAST •Early results show that Ivory Coast's Pres. Alassane Ouattara won an unconstitutional fourth term on Saturday. •That's unsurprising, as Ouattara's government banned both of his serious rivals - as well as over 50 other would've-runs - from contesting the vote. CHINA •The U.S. and China announced that they'd agreed to a framework for a trade deal, as well as what U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent called a "final deal on TikTok." •That's great timing: it gives Presidents Trump and Xi two big wins to trumpet when they meet on Thursday. •Bessent said the trade deal - which is not yet final - calls for China to pause its new rare earths export controls for a year. In return, Trump would presumably delay the 100% tariff escalation he'd threatened in response to Beijing's rare earths restrictions. SUDAN •Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) said it had seized the army's Sixth Division Headquarters in El Fasher, Darfur. •There are two conflicting narratives on the significance of the RSF's pronouncement. •The first - which the army and its backers would prefer to believe - is that the base was unoccupied at the time it was "captured" - and not worth defending anyway, since the army still solidly controls the main prize of the long-besieged city of El Fasher. •The second - which the RSF optimistically promotes - is that the fallen headquarters was the last major bastion of army control in western Sudan, so its capture will solidify the RSF's grip on western Darfur. That would also boost the odds of a long-term stalemate splitting Sudan in two, with an army-run east and an RSF-controlled west. •As always, reality surely lies somewhere between the extremes. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 24 Oct RUSSIA •Pres. Putin reacted angrily to new U.S. sanctions on Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil, which Pres. Trump imposed in frustration with Putin's refusal to engage in Ukraine ceasefire talks. Putin called the new measures an "unfriendly act" and chided the foreign buyers complying with them that "no self-respecting country" would cave to such pressure. •Yet Russia's major customers, including India and China, are indeed curtailing their purchases of seaborne Russian oil because of the new sanctions - at least in the short term. Oil prices rose 5% on expectations of greater competition to buy non-sanctioned oil. VENEZUELA •Two supersonic U.S. B-1 bombers flew close enough to Venezuela yesterday to cause concern for Nicolas Maduro, who is probably uneasily watching the skies for signs that Pres. Trump has begun to launch the land strikes he's been threatening. •The U.S. Lancers remained in international airspace, and Pres. Trump later rejected initial Pentagon suggestions that the sorties were part of an "attack demonstration" to intimidate Maduro. But - given recent escalatory rhetoric from both sides - this looks like more of a preview than a false alarm. SUDAN •According to media reports, representatives of "The Quad" - Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the U.S. - are meeting in Washington today to mediate between the warring sides of Sudan's civil war. •Alas, neither the army nor the Rapid Support Forces seem ready to talk peace. Both deny that they're even engaging in indirect talks, and both continue to stock up on weapons - despite an (apparently ineffective) arms embargo. NIGER •Suspected jihadist gunmen kidnapped an American missionary, Kevin Rideout, from his home just 100 meters (300 feet) from the presidential palace in Niamey. •Rideout's abduction will be a painful reminder to the junta - which operates from the presidential palace - of how badly it has failed to contain jihadists and restore security since taking power in July 2023. •Both Islamic State's Sahel Province (ISSP) and the Al Qaeda-linked Group for Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) are active in Niger and across its porous borders, and both have abducted Westerners for ransom in recent years. But it was probably ISSP - rather than JNIM - that abducted Rideout, whose cell phone was last traced to an ISSP-ridden area north of Niamey. WEST BANK •Vice Pres. Vance and Pres. Trump both categorically rejected the Israeli Knesset's preliminary vote on a proposal to annex much of the West Bank. •Vance - speaking from Israel - called it an "insult" and a "very stupid political stunt," and Trump vowed that "Israel would lose all of its support from the United States" if the measure wins full approval. •Most of Prime Minister Netanyahu's Likud party would agree with Vance that the proposal was an opposition stunt designed to provoke outcry, and the bill is unlikely to clear the remaining three votes it would need to pass. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 23 Oct RUSSIA •The U.S. imposed new sanctions on Russian oil majors Lukoil and Rosneft yesterday - one week after the UK sanctioned the same companies. •These were the first war-related sanctions the U.S. has imposed on Russia since Pres. Trump returned to office, and Trump's Treasury Secretary - Scott Bessent - directly linked them to Pres. Putin's stonewalling on peace talks: "Given President Putin’s refusal to end this senseless war, Treasury is sanctioning Russia’s two largest oil companies that fund the Kremlin’s war machine." •The new measures are a significant escalation - Pres. Trump called them "tremendous sanctions" - and they appear intended to push Putin to agree to talks. They'll also help nudge India to reduce its Russian oil imports, since Indian refiners buy much of their Russian oil from the newly-sanctioned companies. •The EU also slapped new sanctions on Russia yesterday. The EU's new sanctions package - its 19th over the Ukraine war - targeted Russian liquefied natural gas imports. CARTELS •The U.S. military carried out its eighth and ninth known strikes on alleged drug trafficking vessels in Latin America, killing five people between the two boats. •Unlike the previous seven known strikes, which took place in the Caribbean, these two both targeted boats in the eastern Pacific Ocean. •Following the latest strikes, Pres. Trump warned that his administration is "totally prepared" to expand its anti-cartel operations to strike drug-linked targets on land, which would be a significant escalation. However, he noted that land strikes may require Congress's approval. VENEZUELA •Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro - who, not unreasonably, perceives himself as the target of U.S. anti-cartel operations in Latin America - announced that he has deployed an arsenal of over 5,000 Russian-made Igla-S anti-aircraft missiles "to guarantee peace, stability, and tranquility" in the face of unspoken U.S. threats against him. •Despite his lip service toward peace, it's Maduro - not the U.S. - who is explicitly banging war drums. In addition to deploying anti-aircraft batteries, he has ramped up militia recruitment and launched large, televised military exercises that feed into his regime's warnings that Venezuelans should prepare "for the worst" and ready themselves for war. •Satellite imagery analysts have been unable to spot any of the 5,000+ Igla-S missiles Maduro claims to have deployed, and Maduro has a habit of grossly exaggerating numerical claims like this (to wit, he claimed to have mobilized more people willing to fight for him than voted for him). The true number of Igla-S missiles in Venezuela is far fewer than 5,000 GAZA •The Israeli Knesset passed the first of four votes required to approve a bill allowing Israel to annex the West Bank - despite clear international opprobrium. •Sec Rubio reiterated U.S. opposition to annexation and called the bill "counterproductive" and "threatening to the peace deal." Even Prime Minister Netanyahu's Likud party opposed it and accused its proponents of trying to "damage our relations with the United States." •The measure still faces three more votes before it can be fully approved, and Netanyahu will likely press the Likud members who abstained from the first vote to fall into line and vote against the next ones. DRC •China's Twangiza Mining declared force majeure after a drone strike took out power at its South Kivu gold mine. •Twangiza has had a rough go of it lately: Rwanda-backed M23 rebels occupied its mine in May, and - with the help of Twangiza's own employees - have since looted around $70 million worth of gold and $5 million in equipment and materials from the site. Their loot was secreted over the border to Rwanda for export, with the proceeds used to fund the Rwandan/M23's war. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 21 October JAPAN •Japan's parliament elected Sanae Takaichi to be the country's first female prime minister. •The media enjoys pointing out that Takaichi used to be a drummer in a heavy metal band. While that's true - she was, and apparently still drums to blow off steam - it makes her sound like much more of a renegade than she's likely to be in office. •In fact, Takaichi is a conservative nationalist who has styled herself after her late mentor, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and after her political idol, former UK Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. •Like Abe, Takaichi is likely to steer Japanese politics to the right and adopt Abenomics-style economic policies favoring fiscal expansion and monetary easing. •But she'll need to adapt Abe's ideas to better fit Japan's current geopolitical and economic realities. In particular, Abenomics - which Abe successfully used to fight deflation back in 2012 - would only worsen modern Japan's opposite problem of inflation. SUDAN •Khartoum's airport was slated to reopen for domestic flights tomorrow - seven months after the army recaptured the capital from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) - but an overnight RSF drone attack looks likely to postpone the reopening. •It was the third recent RSF attack on Khartoum, following two strikes on army bases north-west of the city earlier in the week. CRITICAL MINERALS •Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albonese met Pres. Trump at the White House yesterday to sign an "action plan" guaranteeing U.S. access to Australia's critical mineral resources - including rare earths - as an alternative to China's tightly-controlled supplies. The allies will also jointly invest in developing new critical mineral projects. •Trump still hopes to appeal to China's Pres. Xi to lift newly-tightened export restrictions on its rare earths when he and Xi meet later this month, but Australia is likely to be a more reliable long-run supply partner.
Open source reportOff Leash update 13 October COMING UP THIS WEEK •The International Monetary Fund and World Bank hold their annual meetings in Washington this week, starting today. •Pres. Trump will host Argentine Prime Minister Javier Milei at the White House tomorrow. Milei will certainly thank Trump for lending Argentina unprecedented U.S. financial support to lessen the pain of the severe-but-overdue economic reforms Milei is implementing. •The Grand Sumo Tournament opens at London's Royal Albert Hall on Wednesday. It's a rare chance to see sumo wrestling outside of Japan: this is the first overseas competition in 20 years, and only the 14th event the Japan Sumo Association has staged abroad in its 99-year history. •NATO defense ministers will meet in Belgium on Wednesday to discuss Ukraine. •Bolivia votes in a presidential runoff between two right-leaning candidates on Sunday, after the long-ruling leftist Movimiento al Socialismo suffered a surprise defeat in August's first round vote. A La Paz-based analyst noted that the rightward swing fits a pattern of Bolivian voters becoming frustrated with the status quo and embracing the opposite political extreme roughly every 20 years. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,748/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $114,876 •Cobalt: $42,725/ton •Copper: $10,518/ton •Ethereum: $4,155 •Gold: $4,076/toz •Lead: $2,021/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.09/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $59.98/barrel •Zinc: $3,002/ton GAZA •Hamas released the last 20 living hostages in Gaza, in exchange for Israel's commitment to return about 2,000 Palestinian prisoners later today. •Pres. Trump was in Israel to celebrate the hostages' return, which came about because of the 20-point ceasefire deal Trump proposed and successfully pitched to both sides. •The hostage-prisoner swap was only the first phase of Trump's plan - and arguably the most straightforward part of it. •Next, Trump will travel to Egypt, where he'll attend a summit to solidify the trickier next phases of the deal, including a path toward a decisive truce and a plan for administering Gaza after the war. CHINA •Cryptocurrencies and stocks fell on Friday - and gold rose - after Pres. Trump revived his threat to slap 100% tariffs on Chinese goods in retaliation for China's announcement of new export controls on rare earths last week. •Beijing's announcement surprised Trump, who called its timing "especially inappropriate" for stealing the spotlight from Trump's successful peace-dealing between Israel and Hamas. •An incensed Trump threatened to call off his upcoming - but still unconfirmed - meeting with China's Pres. Xi at an Asia-Pacific summit in South Korea later this month, saying "there seems to be no reason" to meet Xi now. •Separately, a new NYT report focused on a massive high-altitude solar project China has built on the Tibetan Plateau (see https://t.co/bKZpG0t8kl), and included an impressive statistic that illustrates the scale of China's solar ambitions: on average, China has added new solar panels with power-generating capacity equivalent to that of the immense Three Gorges Dam every three weeks during 2025. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 6 October COMING UP THIS WEEK •Nobel Prizes will be announced from today to next Monday, with one of the six prizes announced each weekday. Today's announcement awarded the Nobel in Physiology or Medicine to three scientists who advanced our understanding of human immune systems. •Tomorrow is the second anniversary of Hamas's attack on Israel, which started the ongoing Gaza war. •The Seychelles concludes its three-day run-off presidential election on Saturday, and Cameroon votes for president on Sunday. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,710/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $124,275 - near the record high of $125,400 touched over the weekend in exuberance about last week's Federal Reserve rate cut •Cobalt: $35,000/ton •Copper: $10,716/ton •Ethereum: $4,573 •Gold: $3,934/toz •Lead: $2,020/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.44/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $61.44/barrel •Zinc: $3,035/ton GAZA •Hamas mostly agreed to the peace proposal Pres. Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu put forth last week - but with enough equivocation on key points (like a timeline for releasing hostages) to seemingly give Netanyahu cold feet. •For example, Hamas said it will need an unspecified amount of time to locate and excavate the remains of deceased hostages to return - which throws a wrench in Netanyahu's demand for an imminent deadline - and it demanded the release of some high-profile Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails in return. •Instead of accepting Hamas's positive response as a win, Netanyahu said the group's caveats constituted a rejection and said there was "nothing to celebrate" about the most promising ceasefire proposal yet. •Netanyahu certainly won't be celebrating the bind that Hamas's assent puts him in. As Eran Etzion - a former senior Israeli national security official under four prime ministers, including Netanyahu - put it, Netanyahu "will find himself with the entire world clapping [for a peace deal] and he needs to explain why he's against it." [Which is because he (rightly) fears that sealing a peace deal with Hamas will cause hardliners to end their support for his fragile premiership.] •Despite Netanyahu's dithering, delegates from Israel and Hamas will convene in Egypt today for mediated negotiations to finalize details of the proposed deal. Experts warn that this stage of negotiations may be the toughest: Israel and Hamas are still far apart on longtime sticking points, like the degree to which Hamas must disarm. •Several analysts pointed out that Israel's Sep. 9 strike on Hamas leaders in Qatar may have worked against Netanyahu and forced him into negotiations he'd hoped to avoid. It perhaps also catalyzed regional support for a peace deal by stirring up anger over a unilateral strike on a mediating country - and fear of further strikes on others in the region. JAPAN •Takaichi Sanae won the leadership of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in a run-off, making her likely to become Japan’s next prime minister - and its first female leader. Takaichi's LDP lacks a majority, so she still needs opposition backing to become prime minister, but analysts expect she'll prevail. •Analysts also expect her - once in office - to boost government spending and advocate loose monetary policy, so news of her election boosted the Nikkei 225 stock index 4% to an all-time high. FRANCE •Pres. Macron's seventh prime minister since 2022, Sébastien Lecornu, named his cabinet yesterday, and his picks - who were largely carryovers from the previous, ineffectual cabinet - fell flat. •Lecornu promptly resigned in frustration, blaming political "egos" and opposition parties with "partisan appetites." Macron must now try to find an eighth candidate to nominate - or give in to the right's calls for new elections, which would likely see Macron's centrist bloc lose seats to parties on both extremes. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 22 Sept COMING UP THIS WEEK •The 80th UN General Assembly (UNGA) culminates in some dramatic (by diplomatic standards) sessions this week. •Several more countries plan to recognize Palestinian statehood at the UN today, after four preponed their announcements to yesterday out of respect for the Jewish new year of Rosh Hashana, which begins today. Pres. Trump will address UNGA delegates tomorrow. •The Seychelles votes for president and parliament Thursday. •Aussie rules football world cup starts Saturday, which is also the 200th anniversary of the first passenger train, the UK's Stockton and Darlington Railway. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,672/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $112,907 •Cobalt: $34,550/ton •Copper: $9,989/ton •Ethereum: $4,204 •Gold: $3,713/toz •Lead: $1,997/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.93/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $63.01/barrel •Zinc: $2,889/ton PALESTINIAN STATEHOOD •Australia, Canada, Portugal, and the UK recognized Palestinian statehood yesterday, and at least four more countries will make similar announcements today. •The U.S. and Israel vocally denounced the new recognitions and are boycotting a French-led UN conference on a two-state solution today. •Realist observers agree that formal recognition won't change the realities on the ground in Palestinian territories anyway. True statehood - with a functional government - looks even more elusive now than it did before Oct. 7. •It will fade even further from reality if Israel responds to this new wave of recognitions by annexing all but 18% of the West Bank, as it has threatened to do. SUDAN •Sudan's military blamed the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) for a "horrific" drone strike that killed over 70 worshippers at a mosque in Darfur on Friday. •There's credible evidence that the military has committed many horrific crimes of its own in the two-and-a-half-year civil war it's fighting against the RSF. •The UN Human Rights Office (OHCHR)'s latest report on Sudan - which was published on Friday - noted that both sides have escalated attacks near civilian centers in 2025, leading to a near doubling in civilian fatalities in the first six months of this year vs. last year. VENEZUELA •Bloomberg reported that Venezuela's Pres. Maduro wrote a direct letter to Pres. Trump on Sep. 6 - four days after the first U.S. strike on an alleged drug boat departing Venezuela - to vehemently Trump's accusations that Venezuela is a major drug exporter and plea for U.S.-Venezuela talks to defuse tensions. •Trump hasn't publicly acknowledged Maduro's letter, but the fact that his envoy, Richard Grenell, expressed hope that "we can still have a deal" suggests Trump may be open to negotiating. •However, two more U.S. strikes on suspected Venezuelan drug boats in the past week might complicate plans for talks. So might the Dominican Republic's confirmation that its coast guard recovered 377 packages of cocaine from the wreckage of the latest strike. CHINA •The NYT made a good point about China's apparent acquiescence on divesting TikTok, after five years of fighting to keep control of the app. •While many viewed last week's divestment deal as a win for the U.S. and a concession from China, in the bigger picture of ongoing trade tensions between the world's two largest economies, ownership of an app may be a very minor bargaining chip that China is happy to trade to "[buy] itself room to negotiate on the matters it cares about most: tariffs, technology and Taiwan." •The deal is not done yet, and its terms are not yet public. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 19 Sept UKRAINE •Pres. Zelensky said his armed forces had reclaimed 160 sq km (62 sq mi) of territory in Donetsk from Russian forces in a counteroffensive that Zelensky called an "important success." •Ukraine has also recently been targeting oil infrastructure far from the front lines, including Russia's largest refinery in Ufa - which is about 1,400 km (870 mi) from Ukraine - and its largest Baltic Sea oil terminal at Primorsk. Some analysts suggest the latest strikes are beginning to hinder Russian oil production - and thus constrict the Kremlin's top source of war funding. •Kyiv's recent successes are particularly impressive given new Ukrainian military intelligence that Russia has thousands of foreign mercenaries fighting on its side. The new intelligence report noted that Cuba is "at the very top" of countries sending hired guns to fight for Moscow, with at least 20,000 Cuban citizens recruited so far. AFGHANISTAN •Pres. Trump floated the idea of reestablishing a U.S. military base at Bagram in Afghanistan as part of an effort to counter China's growing influence in the region. Trump has mentioned a return to Bagram before, but it's not clear whether the Pentagon is actively planning for it yet. •Afghanistan's Taliban government was quick to reject the idea hours after Trump mentioned it yesterday. A foreign ministry spokesman said it was against the U.S. having "any military presence" in Afghanistan, but was open to "political and economic relations based on mutual respect and shared interests." IRAN •It sounds like Iran and the European signatories of the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal have made little progress on negotiations to avoid the imminent "snapback" of sanctions over Iran's noncompliance with the deal's terms. •That means the UN Security Council could vote to reinstate sanctions on Iran as early as next week. •Iran has threatened to walk away from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) if sanctions are reimposed, but most analysts believe Tehran still hopes to negotiate a better outcome and won't blow up talks by withdrawing from the NPT. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (AI) •China's DeepSeek - which stunned the AI world in January by introducing a stellar open-source reasoning model that it developed faster and cheaper than proprietary Western rival models - published a new, peer-reviewed study proving its claims that its groundbreaking R1 model didn't rely on rivals for training and cost just $294k to create. By comparison, OpenAI's GPT-4 cost over $63 million just to train. •Separately, AI chipmaking giant Nvidia announced plans to invest $5 billion in its older rival, Intel, which has struggled to keep up with advancements in chipmaking. The news sent share prices higher across the chipmaking sector. RANDOM •Ig Nobel winners were announced yesterday. •This year's mock awards - which recognize "achievements that first make people laugh and then make them think" - celebrated research showing that painting cows like zebras deterred insects from biting them, giving Germans vodka shots slightly improved their ability to speak Dutch, and rainbow lizards at a resort in Togo preferred four-cheese pizza over other topping choices.
Open source reportOff Leash update 16 Sept VENEZUELA •The U.S. Navy targeted another drug boat near Venezuela, killing three people who Pres. Trump said were "positively identified, extraordinarily violent drug trafficking cartels and narcoterrorists" heading to the U.S. with "big bags of cocaine and fentanyl." •Some legal experts have criticized these extra judicial strikes on alleged drug boats as excessive, pointing out that even convicted drug traffickers don't face the death penalty. These accused traffickers are being executed without a trial. [Trump argues that drug cartels should be treated as foreign terrorist organizations and have forfeited their right to stand trial.] •Before the new U.S. strike was announced yesterday, Venezuela's dictator, Nicolas Maduro, called the first U.S. strike of this campaign - which occurred Sep. 2 - a "heinous crime" and "a military attack on civilians who were not at war and were not militarily threatening any country." •Maduro insists that the U.S. is trying to goad Venezuela into a "major war" with the goal of "regime change for oil." Few in the Trump administration would be sad to see Maduro's regime fall, but this naval operation seems like a roundabout way to launch a "major war." ISRAEL AND GAZA •Israel began the "main phase" of its ground offensive on Gaza City this morning, rolling tanks into Gaza's largest population center - which Israel believes to be Hamas's last major stronghold. •U.S. SecState Rubio just paid a visit to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, and offered Netanyahu full U.S. support for his offensive against Hamas. Rubio also conceded that a Gaza peace deal may be out of reach at this stage. •Both Rubio and Netanyahu dodged questions about whether Israel told Pres. Trump it planned to target Hamas leaders in Qatar in advance of the strike. Israeli officials maintain that Trump did indeed have advance warning; the White House claims he only found out after missiles were in the air. Either way, it seems clear Trump didn't have enough advance warning to object to the strike or warn Qatar about it. •On the other side, Arab states met yesterday in Doha to rally behind Qatar in unanimous objection to Israel's strike. •Iran's Pres. Pezeshkian was one of the most vocal attendees denouncing the strike; he complained that "Israel strikes wherever it wants and does whatever it wants," and proposed an "Islamic NATO" to deter future Israeli fire. That's ironic, given that Iran carried out its own ballistic missile strikes on Qatar just three months ago. SYRIA •I missed a key event in my weekly outlook: Syria's new government began a one-week process to choose its new legislature yesterday. •Interim President Ahmed al Sharaa will appoint 70 of its 210 members, while local committees will pick the rest. •As The Economist noted: "Popular democracy this is not, but it is certainly more unpredictable than elections for the old parliament, in which only Bashar al-Assad’s toadies were allowed to run." CHINA •U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent announced an eleventh-hour agreement to allow TikTok to continue operating in the U.S. under U.S.-controlled owners ahead of tomorrow's extended deadline. Presidents Trump and Xi will "complete" the deal Friday. •Separately, China's markets regulator ruled that chipmaking giant Nvidia's 2020 acquisition of Mellanox Technologies violated antitrust laws. That's going to make ongoing U.S.-China trade talks in Madrid awkward. Some observers suggested the ruling may be China's revenge for Pres. Trump's pressure on U.S. allies to raise tariffs on China over China's purchases of Russian oil.
Open source reportOff Leash update 15 September COMING UP THIS WEEK •Arab foreign ministers are holding an emergency summit today to discuss a united response to Israel's strike on Hamas leaders in Doha last week. Some analysts worry that the unilateral strike is leading U.S. allies in the region - including Qatar - to question what they gain from strong ties with a U.S. that either can't or won't intervene on their behalf to prevent strikes like this. •Pres. Trump will make an unprecedented second presidential visit to the UK this week, starting tomorrow. •Wednesday is the extended deadline for Bytedance to sell TikTok to a non-Chinese owner - but that deadline has already been delayed three times, and - given the lack of publicly-announced progress towards an acquisition deal - looks likely to be extended again. •The U.S. Federal Reserve will announce its decision on interest rates Wednesday. Pres. Trump predicted that the Fed will oblige his request for a "big cut" in rates. •The 19th annual Oktoberfest starts Saturday in Munich. •On Sunday, Guinea will vote in a referendum on its junta's new draft constitution. More on that below. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,690/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $115,036 •Cobalt: $33,335/ton •Copper: $10,068/ton •Ethereum: $4,531 •Gold: $3,637/toz •Lead: $2,018/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.95/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $62.89/barrel •Zinc: $2,957/ton RUSSIA •Romania said Russian drones invaded its airspace, marking the second time in under a week that a NATO member has reported a Russian drone incursion. •Analysts call the use of such gradual offenses to probe an adversary's response "salami slicing:" each slice advances Russia's geopolitical goals slightly, without causing enough of a stir to provoke meaningful countermeasures. NEPAL •Nepal's "Gen Z" protesters got their wish and saw their pick to lead the country's interim government, former chief justice Sushila Karki, sworn in as interim prime minister. •Karki said she'd been reluctant to accept the mantle of becoming Nepal's first female leader, and pledged to step down in six months after organizing fresh elections. GUINEA •Guinea's junta will put its new draft constitution to a referendum on Sunday. •The referendum was supposed to be a gauge of popular sentiment on ending the junta's military rule, but it instead looks like a way to legitimize its power grab: the draft proposal seems to open the door to keeping junta leader Mamady Doumbouya in power. •It won't be a fair vote, either: the junta banned the country's three main political parties - including deposed Pres. Conde's Rally of the Guinean People - from participating, saying the "parties have not fulfilled the obligations required of them." Their main offense seems to be demonstrating against the junta's illegal power grab. PALESTINIAN STATEHOOD •The UN General Assembly overwhelmingly approved a declaration condemning both Hamas's Oct. 7 attacks and Israel's subsequent war in Gaza, and supporting "tangible, timebound, and irreversible steps" towards a two-state solution to the long-running conflict. •The U.S. and Israel boycotted the resolution and criticized it as a "publicity stunt." SAHEL •Niger and Chad reported two apparently isolated recent jihadist attacks on their soldiers. •In the first, Islamic State (IS)-linked militants ambushed Nigerien soldiers after laying traps for them in Tillabéri, killing at least 14 and up to 27. Those coordinated incidents apparently took place last Wednesday - which was the same day Human Rights Watch issued a report warning of an escalation in IS attacks in the volatile region. •Then, Chad said "Boko Haram elements" killed 40 of its soldiers in an attack on their base in the Lac region bordering Nigeria early today. The attackers absconded with heavy weapons, which they'll likely use in future attacks.
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 Sept HAMAS •An Israeli airstrike targeted Hamas's leadership-in-exile in Qatar while they were reportedly meeting to discuss a new, U.S.-backed ceasefire proposal. •Hamas said the strike missed its most senior targets but killed five lower-level members, including the son of the militia's senior negotiator, and a Qatari security officer. •The strike - thought to be Israel's first on Qatar - probably did more damage to U.S.-Israeli relations and Qatar's willingness to mediate ceasefire talks than it did to Hamas. •Pres. Trump said he was "very unhappy about every aspect of" the strike and specifically lamented Israel's unilateral action against Qatar, which Trump called "a Sovereign Nation and close Ally of the United States, that is working very hard and bravely taking risks with us to broker Peace." •Qatar's prime minister offered reassurances that his country would still continue its (thus far thankless and fruitless) role of mediating between Israel and Hamas, but seethed at Israel for violating Qatari sovereignty. He criticized Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu by name and called for "a response from the entire region to such barbaric actions." •Meanwhile, Hamas belatedly claimed responsibility for Monday's shooting that killed six in Jerusalem. •Netanyahu's office said the Jerusalem shooting was one of the factors that led Israel to target Hamas's leadership in Qatar, but it seems more likely that Israel's strike had been planned for months and was only waiting for an opportunity to target a gathered group of Hamas leaders. NEPAL •Nepal's "Gen Z" protesters were clearly not satisfied with the government's half-hearted (and mildly patronizing) concession to lift a nascent social media ban but ignore agitators' more significant calls for reform. •Nor did the demonstrators accept yesterday's resignations of the prime minister, KP Sharma Oli, and home minister as solutions. •Following the resignations, angry demonstrators set fire to the Supreme Court, the parliament building, the prime minister's residence (and residences of three former prime ministers), and the ruling Communist Party of Nepal's headquarters. •The military sent troops to restore order in Kathmandu - apparently unsuccessfully so far. The protests seem to be morphing into a broader, angrier expression of economic discontent and outrage over government corruption. FRANCE •Pres. Macron appointed his former defense minister and close ally, Sébastien Lecornu, to become his fifth prime minister. •Like his unsuccessful predecessor, François Bayrou, Lecornu is a centrist. He'll face the same resistance from both political extremes - the far left and the far right - that stalled Bayrou's budget proposal and ultimately ended his premiership. IRAN •Iran signed an agreement laying out "practical modalities" for International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) experts to resume inspections of Iran's nuclear sites, which were cut off in June when Israel - and then the U.S. - bombed the sites. •Iran is keen to cooperate with the IAEA to avoid a reinstatement of UN sanctions, which is a distinct possibility after France, Germany, and the UK notified the UN last week that Iran was in breach of its commitments to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal. •That notification started a 30-day clock for consultations in which both sides hope to avoid the drastic default option of a "snapback mechanism" that reimposes UN sanctions on Iran. •Iran's foreign minister noted that its agreement to resume IAEA inspections is contingent on reaching a deal to avoid reinstated sanctions, and - if sanctions are reimposed - "Iran will consider its cooperation with the agency to have come to an end." 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 5 Sept UKRAINE •France's Pres. Macron announced that 26 countries have formally agreed to be "present on the ground, in the sea or in the air” to guarantee Ukraine's security in a potential future peace deal with Russia. •Macron was intentionally vague about what that commitment really means because the group does not wish to "reveal the details of our organization to Russia." •Several signatories - including Germany, Italy, Poland, and the U.S. - have already rejected the idea of having troops on the ground in Ukraine, and so far only Estonia, France, and the UK have publicly entertained the idea of sending ground troops. The Kremlin obviously hates the idea. •Pres. Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, attended the summit Macron co-hosted with the UK's Prime Minister Starmer, and Trump apparently dialed in, too. Their participation reinforced U.S. backing for a European-led post-war plan. •Trump seemingly surprised Macron by taking a tough tone on Pres. Putin after the pair's fairly friendly meeting in Alaska last month. On yesterday's call, Trump urged the 30 heads of state in attendance not to buy Russian oil, and to redouble pressure on China to stop funding Russia's war effort. AFGHANISTAN •As the dust settles on Sunday's earthquake in northeast Afghanistan, reports are emerging that some (all-male) first responders abided by Taliban-directed cultural norms and refused to help women and girls trapped in the rubble, leaving them to wait for female rescuers. •As a result, women may represent a disproportionate share of the 2,200 killed and 3,600 injured in the disaster when the Taliban government eventually releases a gender breakdown of casualties. Or - if casualty statistics were a woman's job before the Taliban banned women from working - we may never see that breakdown at all. DRC •DRC declared a new Ebola outbreak in its south-central Kasai province, which borders Angola. •So far, health officials have counted 15 deaths and 28 suspected cases in the current outbreak, which is DRC's first since 2022 - and Kasai's first since 2008. •Kinshasa is well-versed in dealing with Ebola, and keeps an ample "stockpile of treatments" - including vaccines - on hand to deploy to new outbreaks like this. GAZA •Hamas said it was ready to release all 20 surviving hostages in exchange for an end to the war and Israel's full military withdrawal from Gaza, but Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu - who demands Hamas's full disarmament too - quickly rejected its latest offer as "spin" and "nothing new." •Israel still hasn't formally responded to the ceasefire proposal Hamas agreed to last week, but its mounting military offensive on Gaza City seems like a negative sign. VENEZUELA •The U.S. Dept. of Defense (which is soon to be renamed the "Department of War") reported that two Venezuelan military jets buzzed one of the U.S. Navy's guided missile destroyers operating in international waters off the coast of Venezuela in a "highly provocative" attempt "to interfere with our counter-narco-terror operations." •The Pentagon responded with a direct warning to Pres. Maduro's government: "The cartel running Venezuela is strongly advised not to pursue any further effort to obstruct, deter or interfere with counter-narcotics and counter-terror operations carried out by the US military." Editor note to Venezuelan military: Fuck Around and Find Out!
Open source reportOff Leash update. 3 Sept VENEZUELA •The U.S. carried out what the Pentagon called a "precision strike against a drug vessel operated by a designated narco-terrorist organization," killing 11 aboard and marking the first kinetic action of Pres. Trump's recently-amplified campaign against cartels. •Trump later said those aboard the targeted vessel - 11 of whom were reportedly killed in the strike - had been "positively identified" as members of the Tren de Aragua drug cartel, and repeated his claim that Venezuela's Pres. Maduro is the cartel's leader. •While some analysts reject the notion that Maduro directly controls Tren de Aragua, many read Trump's latest statement as the strongest suggestion yet that his anti-cartel campaign could - as Maduro fears - be used to target the Venezuelan regime. GAZA •The NYT reported on an emerging rift between Prime Minister Netanyahu and several of his top military and security officials over Netanyahu's stubborn opposition to a Gaza ceasefire deal. •Netanyahu's military chief of staff, national security adviser, foreign minister, and Mossad chief are reportedly among those advocating for a negotiated, phased peace deal. •While none of the officials opposing Netanyahu's stance have broken from protocol to publicly dissent, the fact that officials are anonymously speaking to the press about it reveals a real rift within Netanyahu's administration. •Meanwhile, the military is pressing forward with the other path: an offensive on Gaza City. •However, commanders are reportedly struggling to recruit the additional 60,000 reservists they'll need for the new offensive. •Many veterans and reservists have joined growing calls to end the war, and those who favor Netanyahu's tougher approach are already on active duty carrying it out. •New recruits are hard to find among the war-weary public - up to 80% of whom want Netanyahu to strike a deal to end the war and bring the hostages home, per recent polls. It's shocking that PM Netanyahu cannot get his own sons to serve their country in wartime. PALESTINIAN STATEHOOD •Belgium said it would join Australia, Canada, France, and the UK in recognizing Palestinian statehood at the UN General Assembly this month. •Like the UK, Belgium has attached conditions to its recognition: Hamas must first release all hostages and relinquish "any role in managing Palestine." CHINA •Judging by the reporting from China's gathering of world leaders for this week's military celebrations, the event has been a marvelous success. •State media captured Pres. Xi having a jolly good time with his Russian, Indian, and North Korean counterparts - Pres. Putin, Prime Minister Modi, and dictator Kim Jong Un - and all seem in great spirits today for the best part: Xi's mighty military parade. NORTH KOREA •It's Take Your Daughter to Work Day for Kim Jong Un's only child, "Dear Daughter" Kim Ju-ae, who joined her father on his slow-moving bulletproof train to Beijing and is attending this week's festivities by his side. •Ju-ae - who is thought to be about 12 years old - has been accompanying her father to important parades. UKRAINE •Speaking in China, Russia's Pres. Putin told Slovak Prime Minister Fico that he'd reached a "mutual understanding" on Ukraine with Pres. Trump when the two met in Alaska last month. •He then seemed to squash hopes for a near-term peace deal by reiterating his tired refrain that the "root causes of the crisis" - i.e., Ukraine's independence and westward tilt - "must be eliminated" first. TECHNOLOGY •U.S. Federal Judge Amit P. Mehta ordered Google to share some of its search result data with rival companies to remedy Google's monopoly on search. Notably, the decision does not require Google to sell its browser, Chrome. •This was the first U.S. antitrust lawsuit against a modern tech major, and it sets a somewhat lenient precedent for how U.S. courts will regulate potential abuses of power by tech companies.
Open source reportOff Leash update 1 Sept COMING UP THIS WEEK •Today is Labor Day in the U.S. Over 150 countries celebrate a similar holiday on International Workers' Day (May 1), but the U.S. chose a different date to distance its commemoration from the May 4 anniversary of the Haymarket Affair, in which anarchists and socialists infused the struggle for labor rights with violence. •Guyana votes for president today. The incumbent, Irfaan Ali, is favored to win, but he faces two strong challengers who have pledged to renegotiate Exxon's contract to reward voters with an even greater share of the spoils of their country's oil bonanza than the $7.5 billion the state received under Ali. •On Wednesday, China will host a Victory Day parade. North Korea's Kim Jong Un will attend, and prepared for his trip by visiting a new North Korean missile production line to practice being impressed by military kit. •In what will certainly be a less ostentatious affair than China's parade, Norway votes for parliament next Monday, Sep. 8. The Labour Party's coalition of left-leaning parties has a slight lead over a right-leaning coalition led by the populist Progress Party and the center-right Conservative Party. A less likely - but more interesting - outcome than an outright victory by either coalition could see the Labour and Conservative Parties each ditch their fringe coalition partners and form an unprecedented centrist coalition. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,616/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $108,575 •Cobalt: $33,335/ton •Copper: $9,902/ton •Ethereum: $4,391 •Gold: $3,472/toz - near record highs on concerns about stubborn U.S. inflation and uncertainty over the future of the Federal Reserve's independence following Pres. Trump's attempt to fire a Fed governor •Lead: $1,991/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.03/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $64.64/barrel •Zinc: $2,819/ton AFGHANISTAN •A shallow (i.e., worse), 6.0-magnitude earthquake struck eastern Afghanistan near the border with Pakistan, killing at least 600 - and probably far more. •The quake's timing was terrible: Afghanistan's hospitals were already underequipped and understaffed before the U.S. suspended foreign aid funding earlier this year, and the population they serve has expanded by over two million in recent months as Pakistan and Iran both evicted Afghan nationals. •Even more Afghan deportees are on their way home now, since today is Pakistan's deadline for them to leave or face arrest. YEMEN •An Israeli strike last Thursday killed Houthi prime minister Ahmed al Rahawi and several other senior Houthi bureaucrats, but the Houthis' military leadership - who really run the show - weren't part of the meeting that was targeted, and vowed revenge. •Analysts say the already-hawkish Houthi military leadership is likely to nurture its extremist tendencies now that there will be fewer comparatively pragmatic voices around to advocate for moderation - and with Iran weakened and less able to stand up for its proxies. GAZA •An Israeli airstrike reportedly killed Abu Obeida, who served as Hamas's military spokesman and was one of its last surviving senior leaders. •Israel believes the remaining few surviving Hamas leaders - including its current chief in Gaza, Ezzedin Al Haddad - are holed up among hostages in Gaza City, which will be the focus of Israel's imminent offensive. UKRAINE •Andriy Parubiy, a prominent Ukrainian parliamentarian who advocated for closer ties with the European Union, was assassinated in Lviv on Saturday. Ukrainian police quickly arrested a suspect and alleged a "Russian trace" behind the killing. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 27 Aug COMING UP THIS WEEK •The two-day Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit starts Sunday. China's Pres. Xi, Russia's Pres. Putin, and India's Prime Minister Modi will all attend, but the meetings aren't expected to lead to groundbreaking new declarations or alliances. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,638/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $112,266 •Cobalt: $33,335/ton •Copper: $9,837/ton •Ethereum: $4,624 •Gold: $3,396/toz •Lead: $1,988/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.87/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $64.19/barrel •Zinc: $2,814/ton TRADE •Higher U.S. tariffs on India - which are, effectively, secondary sanctions on India for buying Russian oil - went into effect today. •Some feel India was unfairly singled out for an exceptionally high tariff rate of 50%, despite being largely aligned with U.S. geopolitical priorities and buying far less Russian oil than China, which is more of a geopolitical rival and yet enjoys a far lower tariff rate than 50% (for now). UKRAINE •Russian forces captured villages in Ukraine's Dnipropetrovsk region for the first time. Analysts suggest Putin is seeking new bargaining chips in case he's pushed to start negotiating a peace deal with Ukraine. GAZA •Two Israeli strikes on Nasser Hospital in southern Gaza on Monday killed at least 20, including five journalists, and drew widespread condemnation - including from the UN, which said there "needs to be justice" for the strike. Israel said it was aiming for a "camera that was positioned by Hamas" at the hospital. SAHEL •Russia's state-owned nuclear power company, Rosatom, signed a cooperation agreement with the junta in Niger to explore the radical possibility of building Africa's first nuclear power plant in the Nigerien desert. •Niger's current fiscal and technological state renders the construction of a nuclear power plant there virtually impossible - even with Rosatom's strongest. The cooperation agreement is probably more of a symbol of a switch of loyalty from France - whose state-owned Orano mined Niger's uranium for over 50 years - to Russia. DRC •DRC and the M23 resumed mediated peace talks in Doha, despite the M23's continued attacks in eastern DRC. •Both sides insist they're still serious about talking peace, but they've ignored self-set deadlines to resume talks by Aug. 8 and to finalize a ceasefire by Aug. 18, and have no additional motivation to seal a deal now. NORTH KOREA •Following a meeting with South Korea's Pres. Lee Jae-myung, Pres. Trump said he hoped to meet Lee's northern rival, Kim Jong Un, "in the appropriate future." It would be the fourth meeting between Kim and Trump.
Open source reportOff Leash update 21 Aug GAZA •The Israeli military began what a spokesman called "the next phase of the war" in Gaza and called up 60,000 reservists for the effort. Its troops have reached the edges of Gaza City and are preparing to encircle it and take control. •Meanwhile, a planning committee issued final approval for a contentious 3,400-unit West Bank settlement project called East One, or E1 for short. E1 was first proposed in 1995, but its approval was long delayed until now - in part over widespread concerns that E1's central location will disrupt the contiguity of the Palestinian-populated West Bank. •To Israeli hardliners like finance minister Bezalel Smotrich, that's exactly the point: after yesterday's approval, Smotrich gloated that the idea of a Palestinian state "is being erased from the table." Smotrich has been a driving force behind the recent acceleration in settlement approvals, and critics say Prime Minister Netanyahu has given Smotrich unprecedented - and unwarranted - authority over settlement plans because he needs Smotrich's party's support to stay in power. •Both moves - in Gaza and the West Bank - suggest Netanyahu isn't seriously considering the temporary ceasefire proposal Hamas agreed to this week. UKRAINE •Russia's Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, said that Russia would insist on being party to any future security guarantees for Ukraine, including those the U.S. is considering that Pres. Trump suggested could be "NATO-like." I suppose that means that if Russia attacks Ukraine post-peace, it will be obliged to retaliate on Ukraine's behalf against...itself? •Lavrov's bizarre comment seems like yet another example that Russia isn't ready to talk peace. •Meanwhile on the battlefield, Russian troops continue to inch forward using inefficient but sneaky tactics like sending small groups of footsoldiers across to regroup behind Ukrainian lines and attack. •Russia's broader goal appears to be to capture as much ground as possible so it can start peace talks from a better negotiating position - if its valiant stalling efforts fail and it's forced to start talks. CHINA •China's Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, returned from a two-day state visit to India with several trade and diplomatic agreements to rebuild and strengthen ties between the two Asian giants. Ties gradually frayed over their superpower rivalry, but cleaved in 2020 over a border dispute. •China and India now plan to reopen their shared (and still disputed) border in three places and facilitate visa approvals to improve trade flows. They'll also resume direct flights, which had been suspended since pandemic lockdowns. •Some analysts see the diplomatic rekindling as a result of U.S. trade pressure on India that has encouraged India to turn to other trade and geopolitical allies instead. •Separately, Chinese leader Xi Jinping paid a rare and unannounced visit to the Tibetan capital of Lhasa yesterday. Xi - who hadn't visited Lhasa since 2021 - said Beijing would "guide Tibetan Buddhism to adapt to socialist society," which probably means it will continue to impose the Communist Party's devoutly atheist values on resolutely spiritual Tibetan Buddhists in the region. AFGHANISTAN •After Chinese Foreign Minister Wang's visit to India, Wang flew to Kabul to offer Afghanistan's Taliban government new Chinese investment - particularly in infrastructure and mining (especially of lithium, iron, and copper) - and to invite Afghanistan to formally join the Belt and Road Initiative. •China's 176 construction contracts and investment pledges to Belt and Road members in the first half of 2025 totaled $124 billion. That's already more than the $122 billion that China pledged to members in all of 2024. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 20 Aug GAZA •Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu hasn't publicly commented on the ceasefire proposal Hamas accepted and put forward for Netanyahu's (unlikely) approval. •The proposal on the table would reportedly entail only a partial hostage release of 10 living hostages - about half the 20 or so thought to be left - and 18 bodies, in exchange for a 60-day ceasefire and a partial Israeli withdrawal from Gaza City operations. •That falls short of the "all or nothing" deal Netanyahu demanded last week, and the hardliners who have Netanyahu's ear - and could bring down his government - are vocally denouncing the proposal. •He will probably end up rejecting it, but - as The Economist pointed out - the fact that he hasn't already suggests his political calculus may have shifted slightly in light of last weekend's mass protests urging an end to the war and a hostage deal. UKRAINE •The White House says Pres. Putin has agreed to a direct bilateral meeting with Pres. Zelensky, followed - "if necessary" - by a trilateral meeting with Pres. Trump (though Trump thinks "it would be better" if Putin and Zelensky meet without him). •Despite Putin's theoretical agreement to a summit, the Kremlin is already dragging its feet on making one happen. A Russian deputy UN delegate complained about having "a meeting for the sake of a meeting," and Russia's Foreign Minister proposed some extra bureaucratic steps to stall planning. •Analysts say Putin isn't interested in talking to Zelensky except to accept Zelensky's capitulation. MEXICO •On Monday, the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) announced a "bold bilateral initiative" with Mexico to crack down on cartels smuggling drugs - including fentanyl - across the border into the U.S. •Mexico's Pres. Sheinbaum later said the DEA's announcement was premature, but she acknowledged that the two neighbors are indeed on the verge of signing a new security agreement that would significantly expand their collaboration against cartels. DRC •Human Rights Watch reported that Rwanda-backed M23 rebels summarily executed over 140 civilians in ethnic Hutu areas near Virunga National Park during July 2025. •The M23 didn't deny perpetrating the attacks, but it rejected claims that those slain were civilian farmers. The M23 insists - against evidence - that farmlands "do not exist" in the area. •In any case, it wasn't farmers that the M23 was after. The mostly-Tutsi M23 is seeking to root out militants from other armed groups, including the Hutu-led rival Rwandan group Forces Démocratiques de Libération du Rwanda (FDLR), which has been operating in the area for decades. •Survivors reported that some of the M23 attackers wore Rwandan military uniforms and spoke with Rwandan accents, corroborating multiple longstanding reports that Rwandan troops are actively involved in the M23's atrocities - despite Rwanda's Pres. Kagame's insistence to the contrary.
Open source reportOff Leash update 11 Aug COMING UP THIS WEEK •July U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data comes out tomorrow. Analyst consensus estimates predict a 2.8% year-over-year rise in overall prices due to the effect of new tariffs on imported goods. •Tomorrow is also the end of the 90-day tariff pause Pres. Trump agreed with China to temporarily reduce U.S. tariffs on most Chinese imports from a punishing 145% to a more tolerable 30%. Envoys have aligned on an extension in principle, but it still needs to be formalized. •Presidents Trump and Putin will meet in Alaska on Friday. More on that below. •Beijing hosts the inaugural World Humanoid Robot Games starting Friday. Over 500 humanoid "athletes" will compete in 538 events within 26 different disciplines, ranging from track and field to 5-a-side football (soccer). COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,609/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $120,596 •Cobalt: $33,335/ton •Copper: $9,762/ton •Ethereum: $4,198 •Gold: $3,363/toz - [Gold futures rose after the U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency unexpectedly ruled that one-kilo and 100-ounce gold bars would be subject to new import tariffs - including a 39% levy on imports from Switzerland, a top exporter of gold to the U.S. Markets then calmed after the White House said it will soon issue an executive order "clarifying misinformation" about tariffs on gold bars.] •Lead: $2,008/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.92/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $64.00/barrel •Zinc: $2,827/ton UKRAINE •Following U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff's meetings in Moscow last week, the White House announced that Presidents Trump and Putin will meet in person in Alaska this Friday (Aug. 15) to discuss ideas for ending the war in Ukraine. •Trump noted that a possible ceasefire proposal would involve "some swapping of territories," which analysts took to mean that Ukraine would be asked to cede some of its eastern regions to their Russian occupants. •Ukraine has repeatedly rejected the idea of a land swap, and Pres. Zelensky pre-emptively reiterated that position yesterday in advance of Friday's talks. Zelensky wasn't invited to Alaska on Friday, and Ukrainians are worried that Trump will make unwanted concessions to Putin on their behalf. •[Zelensky also pointed out the irony of the Putin-Trump meeting - in which Putin hopes to reestablish control over eastern Ukraine largely on the basis that it was once Russian territory - taking place in Alaska, which was also previously Russian territory. A cash-strapped Russia sold Alaska to the U.S. in 1867 for $7.2 million (about $154 million today), and thus far Putin hasn't mentioned wanting to take it back.] •Seven European leaders - including France's Pres. Macron and Germany's Chancellor Merz - penned a joint statement standing behind a sidelined Ukraine and declaring that "the path to peace in Ukraine cannot be decided without Ukraine." European foreign ministers will meet today to align their support for Ukraine ahead of Friday's summit excluding it. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 7 August UKRAINE •U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff met Pres. Putin in Moscow this week, and Pres. Trump said Witkoff made "great progress" nudging Putin towards a Ukraine ceasefire deal he could agree to. •Next, Trump and Putin plan to meet in the coming days to continue where Witkoff left off. •Trilateral talks between Presidents Trump, Putin, and Zelensky could follow - though it's unclear whether either Putin or Zelensky has agreed to participate yet. DRC •UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk dashed hopes for the ceasefire DRC signed with Rwanda-backed M23 rebels on June 19 with a new report suggesting the M23 defied the truce and instead escalated its violence in North Kivu in July. The UN counted at least 319 civilian deaths from M23 massacres between July 9 and 21. •Presidents Tshisekedi and Kagame are still due to meet in the coming months to agree on the details of their fraying truce. IRAN •Iran closed government offices in half its provinces yesterday to save water and electricity amidst an ongoing dual shortage exacerbated by five years of drought and soaring temperatures. •Tehran is particularly affected, with water pressure halved or worse in 80% of its households. Authorities are encouraging residents to wait out the latest heatwave elsewhere to prolong what little water remains in the reservoirs feeding the capital, but they fear taps could run dry within weeks. SUDAN •State media reported that Sudan's air force blew up an Emirati plane carrying 40 alleged Colombian mercenaries as it landed at Darfur's Nyala airport, which is controlled by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) fighting the army. •Sudan (credibly) accuses the UAE of supplying the RSF with weapons and mercenaries, and says Nyala airport is the main entry point for both. •Colombia's Pres. Petro seemed to acknowledge reports of Colombian mercenaries fighting alongside the RSF, but has made his distaste for it clear. After yesterday's report that Colombian fighters were aboard the Nyala-bound plane, Petro called for a ban on mercenary activity. GHANA •A helicopter crash killed Ghana's Ministers of Defense and Environment - as well as eight other officials - en route to a conference on illegal mining. There are no reports of foul play yet. TRADE •New U.S. tariffs on imports from around 90 countries came into effect at midnight this morning. •In addition, Pres. Trump threatened to impose a new, 100% tariff on semiconductor imports to the U.S. - but with a key loophole exempting companies that pledge new investment in the U.S.
Open source reportOff Leash update 6 August GAZA •Israel is considering a plan to expand the war in Gaza and occupy the entire Gaza Strip - including the 25% it doesn't currently control. The cabinet will vote on the proposal tomorrow. •Prime Minister Netanyahu's far-right supporters love the idea, and - with ceasefire negotiations stalled and his fragile coalition at risk of fracture - Netanyahu seems to be warming to it, too. •However, some senior military figures - reportedly including Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir - have voiced dissent over fears that a full occupation would endanger the remaining ~20 living hostages and bog the IDF down for years. They prefer a more gradual approach: perhaps encircling Gaza City and other population centers first, and then selectively launching operations from there. BRAZIL •On Monday, Brazilian Supreme Court justice Alexandre de Moraes ordered former president - and Moraes's nemesis - Jair Bolsonaro into house arrest for violating a social media ban imposed during his ongoing trial on charges of plotting a coup, which Bolsonaro denies. •Other Brazilian officials - including Moraes's fellow Supreme Court justices - were apparently surprised by the order and worry that it will complicate ongoing trade talks with the U.S., given Pres. Trump's support for Bolsonaro and vocal opposition against the charges against the former president. SUDAN •Sudan's civil war has slowly shifted west since the Sudanese Army retook control of Khartoum in March. The army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are now battling over Kordofan, which lies between Darfur (largely under RSF control) and central Sudan (largely under army control). •Human rights groups say civilians in Kordofan are suffering the consequences of being at the crossroads of the war, and civilians in El Fasher - the only part of Darfur the army controls - are starving en masse under the RSF's siege of the city. •Neither side is gaining much traction, and the conflict looks likely to grind on.
Open source reportOff Leash update 5 August UKRAINE •Pres. Trump said he may send envoy Steve Witkoff to Russia this week to push Pres. Putin towards a Ukraine ceasefire: "We’ve got to get to a deal where people stop getting killed." •Last Monday, Trump gave Putin 10 to 12 days to agree to a truce or face new sanctions - though Trump himself conceded that Putin could well ignore his ultimatum. Witkoff's visit may be a last-ditch effort to reach a deal before Trump's deadline. JAPAN •Australia signed a A$10 billion ($6.5 billion) deal with Japan's Mitsubishi Heavy Industries to build 11 Mogami-class multi-role warships for the Royal Australian Navy. The first three frigates will be built in Japan and delivered starting in 2029; the subsequent eight units will be built in Western Australia by Australia's own Austral (with Japanese help). •Japan ended its military export ban in 2014, and this is its largest defense deal since. It's also Australia's largest-ever defense deal. OIL •BP announced its largest new discovery in decades around 400 km offshore Brazil. Lab analysis will quantify the full extent of the discovery. •Separately, Wood Mackenzie said it expects Suriname to surpass Guyana in new oil exploration and drilling activity in 2025. Petronas, Chevron, Shell, and Total Energies are all actively operating in Suriname this year, thanks to recent Surinamese investment in licensing and regulating its natural resources.
Open source reportOff Leash update 22 July UKRAINE •Pres. Zelensky announced that Ukraine and Russia will meet for peace talks in Istanbul tomorrow. •Zelensky seems more open to an immediate ceasefire than Pres. Putin does. The Kremlin is already managing expectations for the summit: a spokesman told reporters not "to expect any breakthroughs in the category of miracles - it is hardly possible in the current situation." •Separately, the NYT reported that Russia's Iranian-designed Shahed drones have become better at hitting their targets - despite parallel improvements in Ukraine's air defenses. Last year, 7% of Shahed fire breached air defenses to reach its target. This year to date, that rate has reached 11%. IRAN •Iran responded to the EU's threat to reimpose UN nuclear sanctions in the absence of a new nuclear deal by convening talks with the UK, France, and Germany starting this Friday. •If those go well, they could open the door to new nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran - although Iranian officials note that there are currently "no plans to hold talks with the United States," suggesting that Iran is still smarting from U.S. strikes on its nuclear facilities last month. CHINA •Chinese Premier Li Qiang inaugurated the construction of a massive dam on Tibet's Yarlung Zangbo River that will become the world's largest green energy plant. The 1.2 trillion yuan ($167 billion) project will take 10 years or more to complete. •Unlike DRC's Grand Inga Dam - which, at ~40-70 gigawatts, would have a capacity somewhere between Three Gorges (23 gigawatts) and the new dam in Tibet (70 gigawatts) *IF* it's ever completed - investors have high confidence in the ambitious new stimulus-supported project. Chinese stock and bond prices rose after Premier Li's announcement yesterday. •Separately, Chinese authorities accused local governments and hospitals in western Gansu Province of tampering with blood tests to cover up evidence of lead poisoning affecting over 250 kindergartners. •The cover-up might have worked if the initial offense had been less egregious: school staff jazzed up kids' lunches with powdered pigments - which were clearly marked as inedible and contained 20% lead - to make the food look better in marketing photos. •The resulting symptoms of lead poisoning were so obvious that parents doubted local blood test results showing their kids were fine, and took their kids to other provinces for untampered testing that confirmed dangerously elevated blood lead levels. VENEZUELA •Venezuela's sanctioned Attorney General, Tarek Saab, opened an investigation into allegations that 252 Venezuelan migrants - purportedly gang members - who were deported from the U.S. were tortured in El Salvador's CECOT detention center before their repatriation to Venezuela as part of a trilateral prisoner swap last week. •Saab didn't mention how the nearly 1,000 political prisoners still languishing in Venezuelan jails are being treated. ISRAEL •Yesterday, foreign ministers from 25 countries - including the UK and a majority of EU member states - signed a statement declaring that Israel's "denial of essential humanitarian assistance to the civilian population [of Gaza] is unacceptable," and concluding that "the war in Gaza must end now." •Pope Leo joined in the criticism, expressing his "deep sorrow" and calling for an end to the "barbarity of war" after Israeli shelling damaged Gaza's only Catholic church, killing three and wounding nine (including a priest). •White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt acknowledged that Pres. Trump was also "caught off guard" by Israel's go-it-alone airstrikes on Syria and shelling of Gaza's Holy Family Church, and "quickly called the [Israeli] prime minister to rectify these situations." 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 18 July SYRIA •Since taking power earlier this year, Syria's Pres. al Sharaa - a former jihadist - has carefully cultivated a new image as an inclusive statesman who has let go of past grievances, including against Israel. •However, Israel's airstrikes on Damascus this week have clearly tested al Sharaa's patience. In his sharpest public criticism yet, al Sharaa accused Israel of inciting "chaos" with its "wide-scale targeting of civilian and government facilities" in Damascus. •Prime Minister Netanyahu seemed to confirm reports that Israel used its airstrikes to bully al Sharaa's government into the latest ceasefire (which is still mostly holding up) when he said the truce was "achieved through strength." •Netanyahu seems resolute in his commitment to using Israel's military might to protect Syria's Druze: he vowed to block Syrian troops from deploying anywhere south of Damascus. UKRAINE •When Presidents Trump and Zelensky spoke by phone on July 4, Trump asked Zelensky about Ukraine's capacity to strike targets in Moscow and St. Petersburg. •The White House said Trump was "was merely asking a question, not encouraging further killing," but it seems Zelensky took the question as tacit approval to fire at Russia's largest and second-largest cities: Ukraine launched over 100* drones at the two cities yesterday. [*100 came from Russian reports - which usually seek to downplay Ukrainian battle strength - so the true number of Ukrainian drones was likely far higher.] •Separately, Ukraine announced two moves to reinvigorate its war effort with arms boosts. First, its Brave1 defense tech incubator launched a program offering Ukraine's front lines as a test bed for new weapons prototypes that allied countries want to test in action. Ukrainian troops will test the new models and report back on how they perform. •Second, Pres. Zelensky set a goal for Ukraine to produce 50% of its weapons domestically within the next six months, compared to the 40% it currently self-supplies. UK •The UK's incumbent Labour Party introduced a plan to lower the voting age to 16. Labour says the shift would bring new, youthful energy to British democracy. Naturally, it would also boost Labour's support: as in the U.S., younger voters in the UK tend to lean left. IRAN •A new U.S. intelligence assessment cautiously determined that last month's U.S. strikes on Iran badly damaged - and perhaps destroyed - the underground nuclear enrichment site at Fordo, and likely surgically destroyed the facilities (like centrifuges) at Isfahan and Natanz that would be used to enrich any surviving 60% uranium to weapons grade - though Isfahan and Natanz suffered less overall damage than Fordo. •That assessment corroborates claims that the strikes have set Iran's nuclear weapons program back years or even decades: even if Iran was able to shield some or all of its 60% uranium from the blasts, it likely does not have any surviving centrifuges to further enrich it to weapons grade. •Separately, additional intelligence reports suggest that Iran's Pres. Pezeshkian sustained minor leg injuries while fleeing an Israeli strike sometime around day four of their 12-day war. Pezeshkian, who is still open to nuclear talks with the U.S., was careful to clarify that: "It was not the United States that was behind the attempt on my life. It was Israel." DRC •DRC is reportedly close to finalizing a four-year football (soccer) sponsorship deal to pay FC Barcelona €10.0 to 11.5 million ($11.6 to 13.4 million) per year to place the slogan "The Heart of Africa" on its men's and women's training and warm-up jerseys, in a bid to attract tourists to DRC. •That follows similar deals DRC announced last month with AS Monaco and AC Milan. •DRC is probably hoping to emulate its regional rival Rwanda, which saw a 17% boost in tourist arrivals within a year of signing a jersey sponsorship deal with the UK's Arsenal football club.
Open source reportOff Leash update 16 July WEST BANK •Senior Christian Palestinian leaders blamed Israeli authorities for allowing and encouraging radical settlers responsible for recent violent attacks against Muslims and Christians in the West Bank, including fires that damaged a Christian church and cemetery in Taybeh last week. •The priests said Israeli police ignored their emergency calls during the attacks, and have done nothing to address "an intensifying trend of systemic and targeted attacks" against local Christians. •Instead, Israeli authorities continue to approve new Jewish settlements. At least 22 new settlements - including some that were completely new and others that already existed as outposts - were built without authorization in recent months, and subsequently legalized by government approval under what the BBC called "the largest expansion in decades." Most experts consider new settlements illegal under international law. CHINA •Chipmaker Nvidia - which recently became the first company to reach a $4 trillion market cap - said the U.S. government had reversed course and approved sales of its H20 artificial intelligence (AI) chips to Chinese companies following Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's meeting with Pres. Trump last week. •Huang probably communicated the steps Nvidia has taken to prevent China from acquiring its most advanced chips, as well as Nvidia's significant investment in the substantially-restricted H20, which was developed specifically to comply with congressional concerns about selling more advanced chips than the H20 to China. •Some China hawks will still worry about Chinese tech companies buying the weaker H20, which is still a great chip for AI - even if it's not the best Nvidia makes. •Meanwhile, China steered in the opposite direction and announced new restrictions on exporting eight electric vehicle (EV) battery technologies that give its cheap EVs a price edge over foreign rivals. That will protect Chinese EV makers' technical edge, but make it harder for them to set up manufacturing plants in the EU or U.S. AFGHANISTAN •The UK belatedly admitted that it accidentally exposed personally identifiable information for 18-19,000 Afghans who worked with its military during the war and then applied for resettlement in the UK in a 2022 data leak. •To prevent the Taliban from carrying out targeted reprisals against countrymen who worked for the other side, the then-Conservative government successfully obtained a High Court "super injunction" as soon as it found out about the leak - which was 18 months after it happened - and then spirited around 4,500 Afghans (~900 applicants and ~3,600 of their family members) away to the UK. •The secret-until-now Afghan Relocation Route program aims to relocate another ~6,900 Afghans - including 600 Afghan soldiers whose data was disclosed in the leak - before it closes, at a total cost of about £850 million ($1.1 billion). IRAN •U.S. SecState Rubio said that he and his British, French, and German counterparts agreed in a phone call yesterday to set a deadline of Aug. 31 for reaching a new nuclear deal with Iran. •If a deal isn't finalized by then, a "snapback" mechanism would automatically reimpose the UN Security Council sanctions that were in place before the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) lifted them in exchange for Iran's agreement to new restrictions on its nuclear programs. •Separately, the U.S. FBI added three Iranian officials - including Iran's current Ambassador to Pakistan - to its "Most Wanted List" for their involvement in the 2007 disappearance and subsequent murder of FBI agent Robert Levinson in Iranian custody. VENEZUELA •Amnesty International published a new report (https://t.co/VgaYavuD3q) accusing Venezuela's leadership of crimes against humanity for using "enforced disappearances as part of a widespread and systematic attack against the civilian population, particularly those they consider dissidents." 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 15July CRYPTOCURRENCY •The main factor driving crypto prices to record highs over the weekend was optimism about a trio of crypto-friendly bills that the U.S. House will consider this week (which House Republicans have dubbed "Crypto Week." Here are the headlines for each: oThe GENIUS Act establishes a rather light regulatory stance on stablecoins like Tether (USDT) that are pegged to fiat currencies. The Senate has already approved it, and the House is expected to pass it this week. oThe CLARITY Act would split regulatory authority for cryptocurrencies between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which would regulate security-like tokens, and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which would regulate commodity-like tokens - presumably with a lighter touch. oThe Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act would preemptively ban the Federal Reserve from issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC). Crypto advocates like this because it keeps the government out of the industry. RUSSIA AND UKRAINE •Pres. Trump has made no secret of his frustration with his Russian counterpart's recalcitrance lately. Yesterday, he said the U.S. would aid the other side of Pres. Putin's war by helping Europe send more weapons to Ukraine. He also threatened "very severe tariffs" if Putin doesn't agree to a peace deal within 50 days. •The most severe tariffs that Trump could slap on Putin aren't direct levies: Russia exports little to the U.S., thanks to increasingly severe sanctions over Putin's war with Ukraine. •Rather, the most punishing new tariffs Trump could impose on Russia are indirect ones that penalize other countries that are still trading with it, leaving Moscow with even fewer willing trading partners. •Meanwhile in Ukraine, Pres. Zelensky said he plans to nominate first deputy prime minister Yulia Svyrydenko to replace longstanding prime minister Denys Shmyhal, who will become defense minister. Zelensky cited the need to "renew" the government amidst stalled peace talks and mounting public cynicism about the government. SYRIA •Over 50 people have now died in Druze-Bedouin violence in Sweida, southern Syria. •Syria's new government has repeatedly pledged to protect the rights of minority groups like the Druze, but its critics say those pledges are either a disingenuous effort to rebrand the ex-jihadists' image or an excuse to grab power in southern Druze areas where they lack control. Or both. •Interior Minister Anas Khattab added weight to the latter criticism in a social media post citing "the absence of state institutions" in Sweida as "a primary reason for the ongoing tensions," and concluding that "[t]here is no solution to this except by imposing security" on the region. •Thus, the government moved troops south to "quickly and decisively" quash the violence, siding mostly with the Bedouin (who share Syria's leaders' Sunni faith) and against the Druze. Instead, armed Druze quickly and decisively attacked the government troops, who comprised nearly half of yesterday's casualties. •Israel joined the Druze in firing at the incoming Syrian tanks. Israel's defense minister said the airstrikes sent a "clear warning" that Israel - which is home to a large and militarily active Druze minority - "will not allow harm to come to the Druze in Syria." Israel's quieter secondary motive is to prevent Syrian forces it doesn't trust from filling the power gap in the south and amassing arms and troops along the Israeli-Syrian border. CHINA •New Chinese data showed 5.2% year-on-year GDP growth in the second quarter. That was better than analysts had expected, suggesting that Beijing's consumer subsidies, monetary easing, and infrastructure spending successfully offset the negative effects of higher U.S. tariffs. •Separately, China introduced a new "digital ID" program today. The government says the program will improve "information security," but privacy advocates say it will facilitate 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 July AZERBAIJAN •Armenia's Prime Minister Pashinyan and Azerbaijan's Pres. Aliyev are meeting in the UAE today to finalize a peace deal ending almost 40 years of border wars. •Their detente is seen as a sign of Russia's waning influence in the South Caucasus: Moscow previously made itself indispensable in the region by alternately fueling and mediating border conflicts between Armenia and Azerbaijan. •With those conflicts now largely resolved (despite sporadic ceasefire violations), Russia can no longer gain leverage by mediating them. KURDISTAN •The imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), Abdullah Öcalan, released a video declaring the PKK's armed insurgency against the Turkish state over, and calling on his loyal supporters to join his "voluntary transition from the phase of armed struggle to the phase of democratic politics and law." •That's the same message Öcalan shared in a letter from jail in February, after which the PKK began the process of disbanding. That process continues this Friday, when some PKK fighters in Iraqi Kurdistan will hold a symbolic ceremony to destroy their weapons. •The truce still seems fragile, as Turkey hasn't formally agreed to any of the concessions Öcalan and the PKK seek, which include expanded autonomy for Kurds in Turkey. GAZA •Hamas said it agreed to release 10 hostages as a gesture of goodwill amidst ongoing ceasefire talks with Israel. However, its negotiators also complained that truce talks were "tough" because of Israel's "intransigence." KENYA •Kenya's Pres. Ruto is setting a great example for how *not* to handle peaceful protests or improve trust in government. •Many Kenyans have lost faith in their government and turned out to protest on Monday in commemoration of Saba Saba, the day in 1990 when Kenyans rejected Daniel arap Moi's autocratic rule and embraced multiparty democracy. •Ruto reportedly sent police to infiltrate and agitate Monday's protests, and openly admits that he ordered police to shoot protesters in the legs ("so they break and they can go to hospital on their way to court.") TRADE •The Trump administration sent new letters to at least seven more countries warning them of the tariffs they face starting Aug. 1 if they don't seal bilateral trade deals with the U.S. before then. •Trump also threatened Brazil with tariffs of up to 50% starting Aug. 1 for subjecting ex-Pres. Jair Bolsonaro - a Trump ally - to a "witch hunt" by trying him for allegedly attempting to stage a coup to stay in power. Brazil's current president, Lula, vowed to reciprocate.
Open source reportOff Leash update 7 July COMING UP THIS WEEK •Senior officials from BRICS countries - Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and the six non-founding countries admitted to the club later but excluded from its acronym - met in Brazil today and yesterday. Six leaders - including Presidents Xi and Putin - had more important things to do and sent representatives in their stead. •Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is visiting the White House today, marking his third visit since January. Pres. Trump expressed hope that his meeting with Netanyahu could help finalize a Gaza ceasefire deal in the next week. •Trump is also meeting the leaders of five African countries - Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mauritania, and Senegal - this week. Trade will be on the agenda: all five have significant untapped deposits of various natural resources but trade little with the U.S. •Wednesday is the postponed deadline for Pres. Trump's new tariffs to go into effect. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent has hinted that the deadline could be extended again to allow more time to secure bilateral trade deals. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,590/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $108,666 •Cobalt: $33,335/ton •Copper: $9,865/ton •Ethereum: $2,563 •Gold: $3,303/toz •Lead: $2,059/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.30/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $66.94/barrel •Zinc: $2,724/ton GAZA •Israel and Hamas both remained noncommittal but cautiously optimistic about the Egyptian- and Qatari-mediated (and U.S.-backed) ceasefire proposal currently on the table. •The terms of that proposal are still hazy, but early reports suggest it would provide for a 60-day ceasefire, during which Hamas would release 10 living hostages and 18 bodies in three separate batches (and Israel would release Palestinian prisoners) •Israel and Hamas would then start "proximity talks" - negotiations to hammer out the details - "as soon as possible," according to an Israeli diplomat. AFGHANISTAN •Russia became the first country to officially recognize Afghanistan's Taliban government, nearly four years after it regained control of the country. •Russia's foreign ministry said it looked forward to "productive bilateral cooperation between our countries in various fields" - which probably do not include strengthening democratic or human rights protections. VENEZUELA •Venezuela inaugurated the first Kalashnikov ammunition plant in the Americas last week. •Though the plant opened a day before Venezuela's independence day (July 5), it was not exactly an independent endeavor: it was built by the Kremlin's weapons export agency, Rosoboronexport, and will be operated by Russia's state-owned Rostec. IRAN •Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, appeared in public for the first time since the 12-day war with Israel to celebrate the Shia holiday of Ashura. •Khamenei hid out in a bunker during the war as Pres. Trump mused about assassinating him. There was little doubt that he had survived, but his supporters were nonetheless glad to see him alive and well. •Separately, the NYT wrote that Iran had hoped to use this week's BRICS summit to rally the group to condemn the U.S. strikes on its nuclear facilities at the end of the brief war, but failed to gain much traction. Russia, of course, leapt at the chance to criticize the U.S. for "unprovoked act of aggression," but China merely called for "restraint," and Brazil stayed out of it. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 30 June COMING UP THIS WEEK •The Wimbledon Championships tennis tournament starts today and lasts two weeks. •Bulgaria will adopt the Euro starting tomorrow, becoming the 21st member of the Eurozone. •Canada Day is tomorrow, July 1, and the U.S. celebrates its 249th birthday - as well as the annual Nathan's International Hot Dog Eating Contest - on Friday, July 4. •The 112th Tour de France cycling race starts Saturday. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,595/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $101,590 •Cobalt: $33,335/ton •Copper: $9,878/ton •Ethereum: $2,463 •Gold: $3,286/toz •Lead: $2,044/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.53/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $65.25/barrel •Zinc: $2,779/ton UKRAINE •Russia hit Ukraine with yet another largest aerial barrage yet, launching 537 drones and missiles overnight. As often, this round of strikes targeted Ukrainian infrastructure. •One Ukrainian F-16 crashed while defending against the Russian attack, killing the pilot. Ukraine has now lost three of its unknown number of F-16s. •Separately, Russian state media said Russian forces captured a village in Dnipropetrovsk. It would be Russia's first foothold in the eastern Ukrainian region, and could be part of Pres. Putin's theat to expand territorial gains in Ukraine in the absence of a peace deal (though some analysts suggest thinly-spread Russian forces will struggle to keep control of new territory). •Meanwhile, Putin claimed Friday that he's ready to talk peace. Putin has made similar statements before, only to backtrack when the idea moves forward and then shrug off blame for the resulting impasse. •Putin's press corps is already starting to suggest that Ukraine and the U.S. are responsible for the latest delays: Ukraine for not acceding to Moscow's territorial gains and Putin's assertion that "all of Ukraine is ours," and the U.S. for failing to push the warring parties towards a deal. GAZA •The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation - the new Israel-backed group distributing aid in Gaza - said it had credible information that Hamas has placed bounties on its aid workers. That adds to concerns that Hamas is seeking to undermine alternative aid delivery systems that it can't siphon from. CHINA •The latest Chinese Communist Party (CCP) census confirmed that the CCP has surpassed 100 million members. •Though the ruling party continues to grow - thanks in part to the rich job prospects its members enjoy - its growth slowed for the third straight year in 2024 as officials continued their efforts to expel slackers and crooks. GUINEA •Guinea's junta-run parliament proposed that the president's term be extended from five to seven years, and that presidents be allowed to hold office for two terms, or a total of 14 years. •That's an interesting shift for a junta that ousted the civilian government before it (in part) over overthrown president Conde's attempt to extend his term to five years and run for a third term, for a total of 13 years in power. TRADE •Pres. Trump walked away from trade talks with Canada on Friday, citing gripes with an "egregious" new tax Canada planned to impose on digital services that would disproportionately affect U.S. tech companies. Canada quickly gave in and ditched the new tax; it's not clear whether Trump will now return to talks.
Open source reportOff Leash update 25 June IRAN •Early yesterday, Iran and Israel agreed to a U.S.-proposed ceasefire that seems to be holding - despite some final fire from both sides in the first hours of the truce. •Both sides claimed victory, and - in the sense of avoiding expanded or prolonged conflict - they were indeed both winners. •Their truce was also a win for nuclear diplomacy: shortly after it took effect, Iran's Pres. Pezeshkian told his Emirati counterpart that Iran is ready to return to nuclear negotiations with the U.S. [However, Pezeshkian reiterated Iran's insistence on continuing some nuclear enrichment programs, which means the biggest impasse that stalled prior rounds of talks remains firmly in place.] •Prior to - and independent of - the Iran-Israel ceasefire, Iran symbolically retaliated against U.S. strikes on its nuclear sites by firing a few missiles at the largest U.S. military base in the Middle East, Qatar's Al Udeid Air Base. •Iran's retaliatory strikes were carefully calculated to avoid casualties or serious damage to Al Udeid, and Iran gave Qatar advance warning and apologized afterwards - all signs that Tehran seeks de-escalation. UKRAINE •Russia fired ballistic missiles at Dnipro yesterday, killing 17 and causing what Dnipro's mayor called "an unprecedented amount of destruction that the city has not seen in the entire time of [Russia’s] full-scale war." •In the wake of the Dnipro strikes, Pres. Zelensky repeated his concern that Russian ballistic missiles rely on parts imported from other countries - "unfortunately, sometimes even from Europe or NATO countries" - and called on weapons-makers to stop selling to Russia. DEFENSE SPENDING •NATO leaders agreed to raise defense spending to 5% of each country's GDP - including 3.5% of GDP on "hard" defense like weapons and an additional 1.5% on defense infrastructure - by 2025. That will please Pres. Trump, who has long been critical of NATO and has often called on its members to contribute their fair share towards the alliance's collective security.
Open source reportOff Leash update 19 June IRAN •Iran's Ayatollah Khamenei bluntly rejected Pres. Trump's call for "unconditional surrender," and instead threatened "irreparable" harm to the U.S. if it joins the fray. Despite Khamenei's fiery rhetoric, Iran's cooler-headed diplomats still insist that Tehran remains open to negotiations with the U.S. •Trump remained vague about whether the U.S. would, indeed, accede to Israel's request to join its side of the conflict, leaving the door open to negotiations: "I like to make a final decision one second before it’s due, you know, because things change." [The WSJ reported that Trump privately approved plans to attack Iran but is waiting to see if Iran offers to return to the nuclear negotiating table before he gives his final approval to attack.] •According to media reports, Israel particularly wants the U.S.'s help - as well as its 30,000-lb. bunker-buster bombs and B-2 bombers to drop them from - to destroy Iran's underground nuclear facility at Fordow. Israel has neither strong enough bombs nor bombers to carry them; U.S. has both within range of Iran. •Doves opposed to U.S. involvement are invoking memories of ill-fated U.S. interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan to advocate against joining. INDIA •India's Pres. Modi met new Canadian Prime Minister Carney on the sidelines of the G7 summit Carney hosted this week. •Modi and Carney agreed to restart trade talks and restore diplomatic representation and visa processing, which is a step towards repairing the damage their bilateral relationship suffered when Canada accused India's government of backing the assassination of Sikh cleric Hardeep Singh Nijjar near Vancouver two years ago. •The very next day, Canadian intelligence published a report calling India a perpetrator of foreign influence for its involvement in Najjar's assassination - and dozens of other alleged plots the Royal Canadian Mounted Police have disrupted against Sikhs in Canada. [The report seems like a compromise to Canadian Sikhs who were angry that Carney would rekindle relations with a government that violated its sovereignty to carry out assassinations; India blew off the criticism and it didn't seem to hurt fragile-but-improving bilateral relations.] DRC •Rwandan and Congolese technical teams are busy drafting a peace agreement to end fighting in eastern DRC, and Presidents Kagame and Tshisekedi are slated to sign the truce next Friday (June 27). •Prior ceasefires have fallen through quickly - some before they were even signed - but the outlook this version seems better, given new U.S. pressure to end fighting and pacify the mineral-rich region for investment.
Open source reportOff Leash update 16 June COMING UP THIS WEEK •Canada's new Prime Minister, Mark Carney, is hosting the 51st G7 summit today and tomorrow. •The biennial Paris Airshow opens today and runs through Thursday. Four Israeli firms - Elbit Systems, Rafael, IAI and Uvision - refused France's order to remove offensive weapons from their stands, and show organizers kicked them out. •Game 5 of the NBA Finals takes place tonight, followed by Game 6 on Thursday and Game 7 (if needed) on Sunday. The Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder are tied at two games each; the first to four wins. •Thursday is a U.S. holiday for Juneteenth. •Thursday is also the latest deadline for TikTok's Chinese parent company, Bytedance, to sell the short-video app's U.S. operations to a new owner or face a shutdown, but Pres. Trump may grant Bytedance yet another extension. COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,503/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Cobalt: $33,335/ton •Copper: $9,645/ton •Gold: $3,386/toz - up on geopolitical uncertainty over Iran-Israel fighting •Lead: $1,991/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.74/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $71.26/barrel - spiked over the weekend due to Iran-Israel fighting, but now down from weekend highs on reports that Iran wants a truce •Zinc: $2,623/ton IRAN •Iran and Israel continued to exchange missile strikes over the weekend and into today. Iran has reported 224 deaths from Israeli strikes, and Israel says Iran's strikes have killed 24 since Friday. •The International Atomic Energy Agency - the UN's nuclear agency - confirmed from satellite imagery that Israel's first barrage Friday destroyed Iran's above-ground nuclear enrichment plant at Natanz. Iran hides additional undisclosed enrichment operations underground where satellite photos can't see. •Prime Minister Netanyahu said Israel's strikes are being "fully co-ordinated" with the U.S., but that seems to be the extent of U.S. involvement for now. Pres. Trump said the U.S. "could get involved" further in the future, but he seemed optimistic that that won't be necessary because the situation "is going to get resolved." •Russia's Pres. Putin has offered to mediate between Israel and Iran, and there are rumors that Iran is ready to end the fighting. IRAQ •Long War Journal pointed out that Iran-backed militias in Iraq have issued vague threats towards the U.S. and Israel, but haven't actually joined Iran's strikes on Israel and are directing their rhetorical ire at the U.S. instead. •One of the militias, Kataib Hezbollah, issued a statement yesterday indicating it would leave it to Iran to "bravely and steadfastly confront the Zionist aggression" [meaning Israel] while it focuses instead on "monitoring the movements of the American enemy’s military in the region." •Another Iran-backed U.S.-designated terrorist group in Iraq, Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba, also focused its anger on the U.S. instead of Israel and called for U.S. forces to "be completely expelled from all Iraqi lands and airspace." •There have been at least two reports of attempted drone attacks on U.S. facilities in Iraq - one on Ain al Assad airbase in western Iraq, and another near the U.S. mission in Erbil. Neither attempt was claimed yet. U.S. TRAVEL BAN •The U.S. State Department said it identified 36 more "countries of concern" that are being considered for full or partial visa bans - in addition to the 12 full and seven partial visa bans announced earlier this month. •The 36 additional countries have 60 days to act to avoid a ban by lowering high overstay rates, resolving security issues, or addressing other U.S. grievances with their citizens' travel patterns.
Open source reportOff Leash update 12 June CHINA •Following two days of trade talks in London, the U.S. and China agreed on a framework for a longer-term detente in their trade war that would extend the temporary reciprocal tariff reprieve agreed last month. •The sticking point that kept last month's trade talks from reaching a lasting truce was China's refusal to lift export controls on rare earth minerals. U.S. officials seem content that the new framework resolves that impasse, but it's unclear whether it also addresses reciprocal non-tariff measures the U.S. imposed in response (such as curbs on Chinese student enrollment in U.S. universities). •The framework that came out of this week's summit will now be escalated to Presidents Trump and Xi for their approval. ECONOMY •A possible imminent U.S.-China trade deal wasn't factored into the World Bank's revised economic forecast released yesterday. That forecast predicted a decline in global economic growth from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.3% in 2025 - and a decline in U.S. economic growth forecast from 2.8% to 1.4% - due to trade wars like the one the U.S.-China framework aims to resolve. DRC •A new draft of a U.S. proposal for a Rwanda-DRC peace deal reportedly demands that Rwanda fully withdraw its troops from eastern DRC as a precondition for a ceasefire. •Rwanda's Pres. Kagame implausibly denies sending troops into DRC, but will nonetheless probably resist orders to withdraw them because he maintains they're necessary to counter vague threats from Hutu militias. SUDAN •Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) claimed it captured the strategic "triangle" region bordering Egypt and Libya. •The military - which has been fighting the RSF since April 2023 - seemed to corroborate the RSF's claim when it acknowledged that it retreated from the triangle region "as part of defensive arrangements to repel aggression." •Unverified local reports claimed that fighters loyal to Libya's eastern commander, Khalifa Haftar, crossed the border to help the RSF capture the triangle region. If confirmed, it would be the first known instance of Libyan meddling in Sudan's civil war. PAKISTAN •Likely jolted by last month's dust-up with India, Pakistan's military announced plans to boost its military spending by 20% to $9 billion for the fiscal year starting July 1. •That's a sharp increase - especially in the context of a 7% decrease in overall government spending for the next fiscal year. Parliament must still approve the budget. GAZA •In a letter to France's Pres. Macron and Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince MBS, Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas condemned Hamas's Oct. 7 attacks and called on Hamas to cede control of Gaza and release all hostages. •Abbas also promised various reforms to the PA, including new presidential elections to be held within a year. He has made and broken the same promise several times in the 29 years since the last presidential poll. •Abbas is hoping to meet Macron's conditions for recognizing Palestinian statehood as early as next week, and wants to position his PA to lead a potential new Palestinian nation. •Israel vehemently opposes Palestinian statehood, and has grown increasingly irritated with France for entertaining the idea. Prime Minister Netanyahu recently accused Pres. Macron of leading "a crusade against the Jewish state" by supporting Palestinian statehood. •Separately, five countries - Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, and the UK - slapped sanctions on two far-right Israeli ministers - interior minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and finance minister Bezalel Smotrich - for stoking settler violence in the West Bank and encouraging the expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 4 June 2025 IRAN •U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff proposed new terms for a nuclear deal with Iran. Under this proposal, Iran could continue to enrich uranium to levels used for nuclear power plants (around 3%) - but not to weapons grade levels - while the U.S., Iran, and other countries flesh out a more detailed long-term agreement. •The NYT said Witkoff's proposal "would amount to a bridge between the current situation, in which Iran is rapidly producing near-bomb-grade uranium, and the U.S.’s goal: no uranium enrichment at all on Iranian soil." [Instead, Iran could partner with Oman or Saudi Arabia in a closely-monitored consortium carrying out enrichment.] •Iran said it would respond in the coming days. UKRAINE •The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) released a new study estimating Ukraine War casualties at almost 1.4 million killed and wounded: nearly a million Russians and about 400,000 Ukrainians. •CSIS also noted that Russia's forward progress has stagnated at just ~165 feet (50 meters) per day in some places along the front. That's slower than the grueling UK / French advance in WWI's Battle of the Somme. •Separately, Pres. Zelensky reshuffled his military leadership, relieving army chief Mykhailo Drapatyi of some of his organizational responsibilities, like training new recruits "so that he can concentrate on the front 100%." •Drapatyi faced criticism for a devastating Russian strike on a military training ground that killed 12 on June 1 and had offered to resign over it, but then he partly redeemed himself by leading the effort to stabilize the front lines in Pokrovsk, Donetsk in the ensuing days. SYRIA •Militants fired rockets from Syria into the Golan Heights for the first time in a year yesterday. •Israel quickly blamed Syria's new government under interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa - who Israeli Defense Minister Katz said would be held "directly responsible for every threat and [rocket] fire toward the State of Israel" - and retaliated with artillery fire on the source of the rockets, as well as a series of airstrikes targeting what it said were government weapons. •Eager to avoid fresh conflict, Syria's Foreign Ministry vehemently denied involvement: "Syria has never been and will never be a threat to anyone in the region." TRADE •U.S. tariffs on imported steel and aluminum rose from 25% to 50% today. Pres. Trump said the doubled rate is designed to protect domestic producers from competition from cheaper foreign rivals: "At 25%, [foreign producers] can sort of get over that fence. At 50%, they can no longer get over the fence." •The White House also sent U.S. trading partners letters yesterday "to give them a friendly reminder that the deadline is coming up" (as press secretary Karoline Leavitt put it) to strike a deal avoiding new tariffs. OTHER NEWS •As anticipated, the European Central Bank confirmed Bulgaria's accession to the euro today. Prime Minister Rossen Jeliazkov celebrated the event as "a remarkable day," but some traditionalists protested against a change that they fear will raise prices and erode national identity.
Open source reportOff Leash update 21 May GAZA •A day after Canada, France, and the UK criticized Israel for its "wholly disproportionate" war in Gaza, the UK paused its ongoing trade talks with Israel and announced new sanctions on Israelis accused of illegally settling in the West Bank and supporting violence against Palestinians. •Israel's Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, balked that its allies' criticisms have handed Hamas "a huge prize" and accused the allies of indirectly encouraging another Oct. 7-style attack. IRAN •CNN reported - citing new U.S. intelligence - that Israel is preparing a possible strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. •Though it's not clear whether Israel has approved a strike or only considered one, the possibility alone spooked oil markets and sent Brent crude futures up 1.3%. [Iran exports over 1.5 million barrels per day, which is the third-most in OPEC but still only ~1.4% of global production.] U.S. •Pres. Trump announced ambitious plans to build a "Golden Dome" missile defense system inspired by Israel's similarly-named "Iron Dome" network, which intercepts (most) incoming rockets and missiles. •The U.S. version would need to protect a far larger area, since the U.S. is 400 times larger than Israel. Estimates for the cost of a U.S. shield range from Trump's figure of $175 billion to a high Congressional Budget Office estimate of $542 billion. SYRIA •U.S. SecState Rubio told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that Pres. Trump decided to lift U.S. sanctions on Syria because it calculated that Syria's interim government was "maybe weeks, not many months, away from potential collapse and a full-scale civil war of epic proportions—basically the country splitting up" and needed urgent sanctions relief for the best chance at avoiding that nightmare scenario. •EU foreign ministers followed the U.S. lead and lifted the remaining economic sanctions on Syria yesterday, but they also introduced targeted sanctions on Syrians accused of abusing human rights and sowing sectarian violence. SUDAN •Sudan's army clashed with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Omdurman. •The army recaptured the nearby capital city of Khartoum from the RSF about two months ago, but it has struggled to regain control of the rest of the capital state amidst intense fighting in and around Omdurman. •The army now claims that the RSF has fled Omdurman, but ongoing gunfire suggests that claim may be premature. AFGHANISTAN •U.S. SecDef Hegseth announced a fresh inquiry into the military's chaotic 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan and appointed his chief spokesman - not a uniformed military officer - to lead the panel. The NYT noted that his unusual appointment "appeared to reflect a skepticism that uniformed military leaders would hold each other accountable." VENEZUELA •Venezuela freed a jailed U.S. Air Force veteran, Joseph St. Clair, in an olive branch that Caracas hopes will inspire Pres. Trump to extend Chevron's license to operate in Venezuela. •St. Clair was arrested in October at the border with Colombia, and the U.S. designated him "wrongfully detained."
Open source reportOff Leash update 20 May UKRAINE AND RUSSIA •Presidents Trump and Putin spoke by phone yesterday, but the two-hour call yielded no tangible progress towards peace. •Afterward, Trump encouraged Putin and Zelensky to negotiate directly, which the NYT called "a functional endorsement of Putin's position." Putin seemed happy, and reiterated his refrain that a ceasefire deal must "remove the root causes of this crisis" - i.e., Ukraine's sovereignty and westward shift. •Meanwhile, the NYT reported that Russia has been reinforcing bases on its tense border with Finland GAZA •Israel relaxed its monthslong blockade of Gaza to allow several food trucks in. Prime Minister Netanyahu said he decided to send "a basic quantity of food" after pressure from Israel's "closest friends in the world" - specifically, U.S. senators who expressed concern about an imminent "starvation crisis" in Gaza. •Shortly thereafter, Netanyahu announced a significant expansion of ground operations in Gaza, writing on social media: "We are going to take over all the areas of the Strip." •Canada, France, and the UK issued a joint statement criticizing Israel's expanded operations in Gaza and threatening to impose targeted sanctions on Israel over both the Gaza escalation and blockade and the growth of settlements in the West Bank. VENEZUELA •Venezuela's sanctioned Interior Minister, Diosdado Cabello, said - without offering any evidence - that authorities arrested 37 alleged mercenaries planning to disrupt this weekend's legislative elections by setting off explosives and collaborating with the opposition - two very different allegations. •Cabello said 21 of those arrested were Venezuelan and 17 were foreigners, but alleged that all of them entered Venezuela from Colombia. That helped justify a decision to suspend flights from Colombia to Venezuela for only a week. Flights will resume after the election. SUDAN •Sudan's military leader, Abdel Fatah al-Burhan, appointed former UN official Kamil Idris as the junta's prime minister. •This is the first time Sudan has had a prime minister since al-Burhan's 2021 coup. The African Union cheered the news as a step towards a return to civilian government - though with the Rapid Support Forces strafing the junta's interim capital in Port Sudan, the idea of civilian government still seems far off.
Open source reportOff Leash update 16 May UKRAINE AND RUSSIA •After Pres. Putin snubbed him for peace talks in Istanbul, Pres. Zelensky - who had already arrived in Turkey - instead met with Turkey's Pres. Erdogan in Ankara and sent a downsized delegation led by his defense minister to meet Russian envoys in Istanbul. •The downgraded Ukraine-Russia meeting was postponed from yesterday to today, and for a while it was unclear whether it would move forward at all. In the end, the U.S. mediated indirect negotiations this morning, and left Turkey to facilitate direct talks this afternoon. •These will be the first direct negotiations between Ukraine and Russia in three years, which is cause for celebration in itself. But few hold high hopes for any real breakthroughs in these lower-level meetings. •Pres. Trump told reporters that "nothing's going to happen until Putin and I get together," and said he plans to meet with Putin soon to kickstart progress towards a peace deal. SYRIA •SecState Rubio met with his Syrian counterpart, Asaad Hassan al-Shaibani, in Antalya, Turkey yesterday to continue the rapprochement Pres. Trump started by announcing an end to U.S. sanctions on Syria and then meeting Pres. Al Sharaa in person earlier this week. •Syria is cheering Trump's move to lift U.S. sanctions on Syria, but the NYT cautiously pointed out that the process will take time: U.S. presidents can only annul some sanctions unilaterally; others can only be removed after slow-moving Congressional action. •Meanwhile, Syria's Central Bank Governor, Abdulkader Husrieh, penned an op-ed in The Economist pleading for international support for his herculean effort to rebuild Syria's war-torn economy. He specifically implored regional banks and the Syrian diaspora to help recapitalize and modernize Syria's financial sector, and asked the IMF and World Bank for funding as well as capacity-building and policy support. IRAN •Pres. Trump said that the U.S. and Iran are "getting close" to a nuclear deal and noted that "Iran has sort of agreed to the terms" after four rounds of negotiations. •It's not clear what exactly those terms will be. Trump's team has oscillated between insisting on harsh demands that Iran firmly rejects - like barring Iran from enriching uranium altogether, even to low grades for civilian use - and a more pragmatic approach that Tehran is likelier to agree to. •Talks have seemed cordial so far - Iran's foreign ministry described them as "difficult but useful" - but Trump ominously warned of "violence like people have never seen before" if negotiations fail (though he added "I don't want to do that step"). INDIA AND PAKISTAN •India's defense minister, Rajnath Singh, pointed to his country's recent beef with Pakistan as proof that Pakistan is a "rogue and irresponsible nation" whose nuclear weapons must be "brought under the surveillance" of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). •Pakistan's Foreign Ministry then shot back that the IAEA should instead investigate "the repeated theft and illicit trafficking incidents involving nuclear and radioactive material in India." VENEZUELA AND GUYANA •Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado called on supporters to boycott the May 25 gubernatorial elections. •Machado told AFP that the regional vote would be a "huge farce that the regime wants to stage to bury its defeat of July 28" - when the opposition participated in nationwide elections, only for Pres. Maduro to steal the vote and launch a violent crackdown afterwards. •Machado leads Venezuela's largest opposition movement, and many opposition supporters will likely heed her call to boycott the election, but some smaller opposition factions - including one led by former presidential candidate Henrique Capriles - plan to participate in the poll. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 15 May UKRAINE •Pres. Putin stood Pres. Zelensky up for today's peace talks in Turkey - which Putin himself had proposed on Sunday in an effort to avoid new sanctions EU leaders had threatened to nudge him towards talks. Zelensky grumbled that Putin's absence indicates "that he does not want to end the war." •It's not clear whether Ukrainian and Russian officials will still meet today. If they do, the Russian delegation will probably be led by hardline Putin aide Vladimir Medinsky rather than Putin himself, which means the summit is unlikely to result in a serious truce. •France is leading an EU effort to slap Putin with a 17th round of sanctions for blowing off peace talks. The new measures would target Russian "shadow" tankers and cyberattackers. SYRIA •On Tuesday, Pres. Trump unexpectedly announced an end to all U.S. sanctions on Syria "in order to give [Syria] a chance at greatness." •U.S. sanctions have hobbled Syria - they were a leading factor in the 90% decline in Syrian exports from 2011 to 2021 - and Syria's new government has successfully argued that it needs sanctions relief to help rebuild the country after 14 years of civil war. •Following his announcement lifting sanctions on Syria, Trump then met with Syria's interim president, Ahmed Al Sharaa, in Saudi Arabia. •Trump encouraged Al Sharaa to normalize relations with Israel, and said Al Sharaa agreed to join the Abraham Accords - the 2020 deal in which Bahrain, Morocco, and the UAE agreed to normalize relations with Israel - at an unspecified future time "when it's straightened out." •Before meeting with Al Sharaa, Pres. Trump addressed an investment conference in Riyadh yesterday with a well-received speech criticizing decades of U.S. nation-building and intervention in other countries and declaring that the U.S. will no longer be "giving you lectures on how to live." •Critics of U.S. intervention cheered the notion of a more hands-off approach, while activists in some countries expressed concern that human rights protections would erode without U.S. pressure behind them. INDIA AND PAKISTAN •The NYT published an excellent satellite analysis of the reciprocal strikes India and Pakistan took at each other during their four-day clash last week. •While both sides "claimed to inflict severe damage" on the other while sustaining minimal damage from the other's strikes, satellite photos suggest that both fought with restraint and precisely targeted military facilities and equipment - especially airplanes and airfields - while taking care to minimize human casualties. India reported losing five soldiers and Pakistan said it lost 11. GAZA •Israel's military likely killed several senior Hamas leaders - including Muhammad Sinwar (Yahya's younger brother), spokesman Abu Obaida, and Rafah Brigade Commander Muhammad Shabana - in a strike on the European Hospital in Khan Younis. •A Gazan political scientist told the NYT that Sinwar's "death would definitely be another big blow to Hamas...But I’m not sure if his death will lead to a compromise with Israel, and it might even backfire, if his successor turns out to be even more radical than Sinwar." SAHEL •Mali's junta responded to opposition protests demanding a return to democracy by formally dissolving all political parties and disappearing three opposition politicians who objected to last month's decision to give coup leader Assimi Goita a five-year unelected presidential term. RUSSIA •A Russian court sentenced Grigory Melkonyants - the head of the country's only independent election monitor, Golos - to five years in a penal colony for working with an "undesirable organization:" the Montenegro-based European Network of Election Monitoring Organisations (ENEMO). •Melkonyants insists that Golos has not interacted with ENEMO since the Kremlin branded ENEMO "undesirable" in 2021. It seems that Golos's true offense was documenting widespread fraud in Russian elections.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 3 May 2025 CHINA •China's commerce ministry said it's "evaluating" U.S. proposals to start trade talks, but the ministry's statement sounded cool on the idea: it warned that if the U.S. "wants to talk, it should show its sincerity and be prepared to correct its wrong practices” by abandoning “unilateral tariffs." •Separately, Apple estimated that new U.S. tariffs on China will increase its costs by $900 million in the second quarter alone. Amazon also warned this week that "tariff and trade policies" - among other pre-existing factors - make its future results "inherently unpredictable." IRAN •The U.S. slapped fresh sanctions on Iran's oil trade, and U.S. SecDef Hegseth separately posted a clear "Message to IRAN" on X: "We see your LETHAL support to The Houthis. We know exactly what you are doing, You know very well what the U.S. Military is capable of — and you were warned. You will pay the CONSEQUENCE at the time and place of our choosing." •Iran was relatively restrained in its response: its Foreign Ministry criticized the U.S. for "contradictory behavior and provocative statements" but refrained from making harsher comments that could derail ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear talks. •Most accounts suggest both sides are still optimistic about talks and broadly interested in seeing them advance to the harder, technical phase of negotiations. •However, Oman, which is mediating between the U.S. and Iran, said the fourth round of meetings will be postponed from tomorrow to an unspecified later date "for logistical reasons." Iran seems to want the U.S. to repeal its latest sanctions before talks resume, but my guess is that it wants to avoid further escalation and won't make new sanctions a sticking point. •Pres. Trump then threatened to impose secondary sanctions on any country that continues to buy oil from Iran. China is by far the largest importer of Iranian oil and would be affected most under secondary sanctions (although history suggests it would find ways to evade sanctions by skirting them or switching suppliers...Venezuela, for one, is lobbying Beijing to buy more of its crude as Chevron production winds down). RUSSIA and NORTH KOREA •Russia and North Korea held simultaneous ceremonies to mark the start of construction on the first road bridge between them (a rail bridge already links the two countries at the same spot). •The new project is a further sign of strengthening ties between the two outcast states. Their leaders have also become more overt about celebrating North Korea's support for Russia against Ukraine in recent weeks. AFGHANISTAN •A former Russian ambassador to Afghanistan said that Russia will help the Taliban government fight their "common enemy" of Islamic State-Khorasan. He was vague about what Russian support would entail, saying only that Russia "will provide our best assistance to the authorities of [Afghanistan] through specialised structures." •No country has formally recognized the Taliban government, but Russia seems to be moving in that direction: last month it removed the Taliban from its list of terrorist organizations, to which it was added in 2003. DRC •DRC and Rwanda expect to submit a draft ceasefire agreement for eastern DRC today. Their temporary truce continues to hold better than their short-lived prior attempts at peace. Happy Birthday Dad, (Edgar D. Prince) RIP. We miss you every day.
Open source reportOff Leash update 1 May 2025 UKRAINE •Ukraine and the U.S. finally signed a mineral revenue-sharing agreement after months of negotiations - and an Oval Office debacle that derailed the first attempt at signing. •Neither side has elaborated on the terms of this agreement except to confirm that it establishes a joint investment fund that will share Ukraine's future mineral revenues between the U.S. and Ukraine. •In any case, the fact that Presidents Trump and Zelensky moved past their Oval Office blowup and signed something is perhaps more important than the precise details of the deal they signed. SYRIA •Israel carried out drone strikes near the predominantly Druze village of Sahnaya, Syria (near Damascus) and - uncharacteristically - officially acknowledged responsibility for the strikes. •Israel justified its incursion as a retaliatory "warning operation" against an "extremist group" preparing to attack members of the Druze community - a religious minority with adherents in Syria, Lebanon, and Israel that Israel has vowed to stand up for. •Syrian Druze on the outskirts of Damascus have indeed been embroiled in violence this week. The clashes began Tuesday, when an offensive audio recording cursing the Prophet Mohammad went viral - along with a rumor that it was recorded by a Druze sheikh. That enraged dogmatic Sunnis, who lashed out at Druze communities in revenge. •Israel's aerial intervention wasn't just about defending the Druze minority, though. It also served as a warning to Syria's new government that Israel doesn't trust interim president Ahmed Al Sharaa - a former Sunni jihadist - to protect the Druze minority in Syria. Israel reiterated that point in "a message [that] was passed on to the Syrian regime - Israel expects them to prevent harm to the Druze." •Al Sharaa's government complained about the incursion in a fairly polite statement rejecting "all forms of foreign intervention" (but not explicitly mentioning Israel or its strikes) and reiterating its commitment to protecting all Syrian groups, "including the noble Druze sect." YEMEN •British Typhoon fighters joined U.S. jets for a joint operation against a Houthi drone factory near Sanaa. It was the first time since Pres. Trump took office - or since he ramped up anti-Houthi strikes under "Operation Rough Rider" starting in March - that the UK has participated in U.S. operations in Yemen. MOZAMBIQUE •French energy giant Total said it aims to resume construction of its giant LNG plant in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique by mid-year. •Construction was derailed in 2017 because of an Islamist insurgency that targeted government forces and foreign assets, but Total insists the plant site is now "completely secure" and project financing is "back on track." DRC •DRC's Attorney General asked the Senate to strip ex-President Kabila of his immunity for his alleged involvement in "war crimes, crimes against humanity and massacres of peaceful civilians and military personnel." •Pres. Tshisekedi's government believes Kabila is behind the Rwandan and Ugandan incursions that have destabilized eastern DRC in recent months, and Tshisekedi sees Kabila as a threat to his presidency. •Kabila denies all charges, but has yet to explain why he chose now to return from self-imposed exile in South Africa to Rwanda-controlled Goma. SAHEL •A national conference of Mali's political figures backed the junta's proposal to appoint coup leader Assimi Goïta as interim president, with a five-year term. Key opposition figures boycotted the conference and objected to its move to legitimize Goïta's second attempt at the presidency. •Goïta's first attempt at becoming president failed in 2020 when regional bloc ECOWAS insisted on installing a civilian leader, so Goïta staged another coup in 2021. He was only a colonel then, but has since promoted himself to five-star general. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 14 April 2025 COMING UP THIS WEEK •The 2025 World Expo opened yesterday in Osaka, Japan. •Pres. Trump hosts El Salvador's Pres. Bukele at the White House today and Italy's Prime Minister Meloni on Thursday. •U.S. markets are closed on Friday for Good Friday, and Easter is this Sunday. •Saturday is the 250th anniversary of the start of the American Revolution. COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,397/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $28,950/ton •Cobalt: $33,700/ton •Copper: $9,155/ton •Gold: $3,223/toz •Lead: $1,914/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.47/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $62.03/barrel •Zinc: $2,652/ton IRAN •The U.S. and Iran held their first bilateral talks since 2018 on Saturday in Oman. Both sides seemed pleased with how it went, so they'll continue with a second round of talks starting Saturday in Rome. •Some (including me) had worried that the U.S. might make uncompromising demands - such as a complete dismantling of Iran's nuclear programs - in this first session, leading Iran to walk away from talks. •That didn't happen. Instead, the U.S. goal for this first session seems to have been to shift from the indirect format Iran wanted to a direct exchange. The U.S. achieved that goal: U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi reportedly met directly for 45 minutes at the end of a day of indirect talks. •Israeli officials remain concerned that the U.S. is being too soft on Iran. SAUDI ARABIA •The Trump administration also revived talks with Iran's regional arch-rival, Saudi Arabia, over the weekend. The U.S. and Saudi are considering a deal that would give Saudi access to U.S. nuclear technology - and could let Saudi enrich its own uranium in the future. •U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the details of an agreement are still hazy but "but it certainly looks like there is a pathway" forward. CHINA •China made another move in its escalating trade spat with the U.S.: Beijing suspended exports of certain rare earths to the U.S. in retaliation for higher U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods. •The NYT assessed that the White House hopes to stop the escalation with direct talks: "The U.S. administration has been waiting for the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, to call Trump, but Beijing appears wary of putting Xi in an unpredictable situation with the U.S. president." •Xi, meanwhile, is on a charm offensive through Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia) this week. His trip was planned long before Pres. Trump surprised those countries with high reciprocal tariffs (which were later paused), but it has taken on new significance after Trump's tariff announcements. Analysts believe Xi will now use his Asian meetings to counter-position China as a stable trade partner - in juxtaposition to the unreliable one keeping global markets on edge. •Separately, the UK took control of its last operating steel production factory from its Chinese owners, who lost interest in the loss-making blast furnaces but still control British Steel's more profitable milling segment. •The episode tainted the UK's trust in Chinese investment: UK business secretary Jonathan Reynolds accused the British Steel's Chinese owners of not negotiating "in good faith," and said future Chinese investment offers would need to clear a "high trust bar" after this. [More cynical voices accuse British Steel's Chinese owners of deliberately ruining its business at the behest and benefit of the Chinese government.] UKRAINE •Russia fired missiles at the Ukrainian city of Sumy during Palm Sunday celebrations yesterday, killing at least 34. •Early reports suggest the Russian missiles fell on Sumy in two waves: an initial one followed by a second that landed as emergency responders arrived to aid victims of the first wave. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 8 April 2025 COMING UP THIS WEEK •Qatar is set to mediate DRC-M23 peace talks starting tomorrow - if neither side walks away before then. •U.S. inflation data for March will be published on Thursday. Economists expect slow price growth for March, but anticipate a sharp rise in inflation this month once new tariffs are passed through to consumers. •Golf's Masters Tournament runs Thursday through Sunday at Augusta National. •U.S.-Iran talks will resume Saturday (see below for more). •Next weekend will see presidential elections in Gabon on Saturday and Ecuador (a run-off) on Sunday. •Beijing will host the world's first half marathon featuring humanoid robot runners - in addition to real humans - on Sunday. •Sunday is also the date of the annual University Boat Race between Oxford and Cambridge. To paraphrase a commentator for the 1949 race, I don't know who will win but it's either Oxford or Cambridge. COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,371/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $28,950/ton •Cobalt: $33,700/ton •Copper: $8,732/ton •Gold: $3,006/toz - slightly off record highs of ~$3,120/toz •Lead: $1,870/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.64/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $60.94/barrel •Zinc: $2,614/ton IRAN •In an unexpected development, Pres. Trump announced that the U.S. and Iran will engage in direct* nuclear talks starting Saturday in Oman. •*Iran confirmed that it will participate in talks with the U.S. starting Saturday, but said the first round will be conducted indirectly via mediators, with direct talks to follow if this round goes well. [Ayatollah Khamenei has ruled out direct talks with the U.S. while Trump's "maximum pressure" policy is in place. ] •Trump threatened that Iran would be "in great danger" if the talks fail. They could well fail if U.S. negotiators make heavy-handed demands that a weakened and insecure Iran would feel compelled to reject - such as ordering Iran to completely dismantle its nuclear programs. •Separately, The Washington Post reported that Iranian tried to hire a Georgian drug trafficker to assassinate Rabbi Shneor Segal, the Chief Rabbi of Baku's Ashkenazi community, in Azerbaijan. Azerbaijani security services thwarted the hit in January. TRADE •Pres. Trump told reporters that his new reciprocal tariffs are simultaneously permanent and open to negotiation - "because there are things that we need beyond tariffs." •So far, only China (reciprocal tariff rate: 34%) and Canada (25%) have retaliated to U.S. reciprocal tariffs with new levies of their own. •The European Union (20%) is reportedly considering retaliating with a 25% tariff on a limited set of goods initially, but the bloc has also offered to completely remove tariffs on some products if the U.S. does the same. Ultimately, European officials suggest they hope to find a compromise to revert to lower tariffs, but they've threatened to expand the range of goods subject to tariffs if compromise proves elusive. •Most countries targeted with new reciprocal tariffs have resisted retaliating and instead plan to either offer concessions or try to negotiate. •Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu rushed back to the White House for talks on both stalled hostage negotiations and tariff relief. Netanyahu pledged to eliminate Israel's trade surplus with the U.S. by buying more U.S. goods and asked Trump to lift the tariff he imposed on Israel (17%) in return. Trump demurred, citing the $4 billion in annual aid the U.S. gives Israel - "that's a lot." •The Prime Minister of Japan (24%), Ishiba Shigeru, said he would also visit the White House soon to plea for tariff relief. •Vietnam (46%) reportedly offered to remove all tariffs on U.S. goods if the U.S. returns the favor. 1/
Open source reportOff Leash update 25 March 2025 VENEZUELA •Pres. Trump accused Pres. Maduro's government of "purposefully and deceitfully" sending criminals and murderers - i.e. the Tren de Aragua gang - to the U.S., and announced plans to impose a punitive 25% tariff on all imports from countries that buy oil from Venezuela - even indirectly. •The largest buyers of Venezuelan oil are China, the U.S. (via Chevron's production, which Trump has ordered to wind down), Spain, and India. Rystad Energy thinks the threat of new tariffs will lead those buyers to seek other sources of oil, which should be fairly easy for all four countries: Venezuelan oil is not a major share of total oil imports for any of them. •Separately, the U.S. resumed deportation flights to Venezuela via Honduras after striking a deal with both Venezuela and Honduras over the weekend. TURKEY •Pres. Erdogan isn't backing down from his standoff with Istanbul mayor - and potential rival for the presidency - Ekrem Imamoglu. •Erdogan had Imamoglu fired from his mayoral post and re-arrested on Sunday - just hours before Imamoglu's party planned to name him as its candidate for the next presidential election. •Erdogan accuses Imamoglu of corruption and supporting terrorism; Imamoglu says the charges against him are bogus and politically motivated. •Tens of thousands of Turks seem to side with Imamoglu: the mayor's arrest sparked the biggest protests Turkey has seen in over 10 years, and Erdogan's authoritarian response - to arrest over 1,000 demonstrators, including journalists - risks feeding protesters additional grievances against Erdogan to rally behind. GAZA •Egypt proposed a new, limited ceasefire proposal for Gaza and said Hamas responded positively to the terms, which would see Hamas release five hostages in return for Israel lifting restrictions on aid flows. •Israel said it hadn't seen the proposal yet. AFGHANISTAN •The U.S. lifted bounties on three senior Taliban officials: Sirajuddin Haqqani, Abdul Azizi Haqqani, and Yahya Haqqani. •The reprieve was apparently part of a deal that U.S. envoy Adam Boehler struck when he visited Kabul last week. In return, the Taliban released a U.S. citizen who had been detained in Afghanistan for over two years. SOUTH SUDAN •South Sudan continues to edge closer to another civil war. Forces loyal to Pres. Kiir carried out airstrikes on a military base aligned with First Vice President Riek Machar near Juba on Sunday, and then arrested several of Machar's senior allies yesterday. •Kiir's side accused Machar's opposition of "scaling up their movements" and said Machar's forces had deployed a patrol "in military formation" to observe army positions. Both sides seem to be preparing to fight.
Open source reportOff Leash update 20 March UKRAINE •Presidents Zelensky and Trump spoke by phone yesterday, and it was much more cordial than their last conversation in the Oval Office. Zelensky agreed to Pres. Putin's watered-down ceasefire proposal pausing attacks on energy and infrastructure targets for 30 days. •Zelensky asked the U.S. to monitor key energy sites protected by the current agreement: "Just the assertion and the word of Putin that he will not strike energy sites is too little." •The White House said its negotiators will continue to meet Ukrainian teams in Saudi Arabia to seek a Black Sea truce "in the coming days," and hoped to eventually reach a full ceasefire plan that both Ukraine and Russia can agree to. GAZA •Israel launched "targeted ground activities" in Gaza yesterday, seizing a sliver of the Netzarim Corridor to create a "partial buffer zone" between the north and south of the strip. Israel's goal seems to be to resume vehicle checks and add pressure on Hamas. •Thousands of Israelis protested in Jerusalem for a new ceasefire. CHINA •Pres. Trump teased a possible visit by China's Pres. Xi Jinping to Washington "in the not too distant future." •Trump said he'd ordered the capital to be cleaned up ahead of Xi's yet-unplanned arrival - as he did ahead of previous visits by other foreign dignitaries like India's Prime Minister Modi, France's Pres. Macron, and the UK's Prime Minister Starmer: "I didn't want to have them see tents. I didn't want to have them see graffiti. I didn't want to have them see broken barriers and potholes in the roads." •Canada may not be inviting Xi to visit anytime soon: China-Canada relations have taken two turns for the worse. Yesterday, China executed four Canadian citizens on drug trafficking charges - despite Ottawa's pleas for leniency. Then - at midnight this morning - China imposed (previously announced) tariffs on $3.7 billion in Canadian agricultural and food exports to China in retaliation for Canadian tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. IRAN •Axios and The Jerusalem Post independently reported that Pres. Trump's recent letter to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei gave Iran a two-month(ish) deadline to reach a new nuclear deal, and threatened significant new sanctions if the deadline isn't met. •Neither publication cited an exact date for the deadline, and Trump's letter may have left it vague to give Khamenei time to soften his position and come around to the idea of talking to the U.S. •Khamenei hasn't officially responded yet, but other Iranian officials - including Pres. Pezeshkian - have gently hinted that they're open to talks without explicitly disagreeing with Khamenei's hardline position. YEMEN •After Pres. Trump threatened to hold Iran responsible for future Houthi attacks on Red Sea ships, Iran reportedly privately asked its Houthi proxies to dial back their attacks and nudged Oman to convey the same message to Houthi leaders. •The Houthis remain outwardly defiant: Houthi foreign minister Jamal Amer vowed to resist U.S. pressure or Iranian appeals to "dial down" Red Sea attacks. But behind closed doors, the Houthis are probably listening to their benefactors (plus, ongoing U.S. strikes are chipping away at their arsenal). •My guess is that we'll see the Houthis lob some sporadic, easily-interceptible missiles in Israel's direction - like the one they fired towards Ben Gurion Airport overnight that Israel promptly destroyed - but won't see the dramatic escalation they've promised. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 March 2025 COMING UP THIS WEEK •U.S. and Ukrainian officials will meet in Saudi Arabia starting tomorrow. Pres. Zelensky is in Saudi and said he was "fully committed" to negotiating an end to the war, but he won't participate in the U.S.-Ukrainian meetings; instead, he'll meet Saudi's Crown Prince MBS for economic talks while his delegates meet U.S. SecState Rubio et al. •Greenland goes to the polls tomorrow. While the question of independence from Denmark isn't directly on the ballot, analysts will be watching results to see if Greenlanders veer towards candidates in favor of greater autonomy for their island. •China, Iran, and Russia will hold joint naval exercises in the northern Indian Ocean this week. Several countries - including Pakistan, Qatar, South Africa, and the UAE - will send observers. COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,706/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,450/ton •Cobalt: $26,960/ton •Copper: $9,614/ton •Gold: $2,901/toz •Lead: $2,019/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.60/MMbtu - a three-year high due to supply constraints and cold weather •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $67.06/barrel •Zinc: $2,887/ton GAZA •France, Germany, Italy, and the UK said they would support Egypt's plan for post-war Gaza; however, that plan still faces significant hurdles: the U.S. and Israel have rejected it - Israel more vehemently than the U.S. - and so far no donors have stepped up to commit the first of the $53 billion needed to fund the plan. •Optimists are hopeful for a second-phase ceasefire agreement this week. Israel sent a delegation to Qatar today "in an effort to advance the negotiations," and Hamas said it has received "positive signals" from the Egyptian and Qatari mediators it's been working with. SYRIA •An independent monitor estimated that over 1,000 people - mostly civilians - have been killed in the past week's clashes between the new government's forces and loyalists to the deposed Assad regime in Latakia. •The Assad loyalists clashing with government troops don't appear to be centrally organized or led; rather, the Institute for the Study of War suggests there are multiple small groups of loyalists each independently declaring a "united" front against the new government. •Interim president Ahmed al Sharaa appealed for calm and asked Syrians "to be reassured because the country has the fundamentals for survival." IRAN •Pres. Trump said he wrote a letter to Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, proposing a revival of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran. •Khamenei seemed cold on the idea: he complained about "bullying governments" using talks "as a pathway to have new demands." •Pres. Pezeshkian, meanwhile, seemed more open to talks - but noted that Khamenei calls the shots: "My position has been and will remain that I believe in negotiations, but now we have to follow the parameters set by the supreme leader." UKRAINE •A group of civilian and military analysts unveiled a framework for a ceasefire in Ukraine that came out of their spring 2022 meeting in Geneva. Their proposal calls for a six-mile buffer zone along the 700-mile front lines, which would be patrolled by peacekeepers, including foreign troops (the UK and France have offered to send peacekeepers, but Russia rejected the idea). •Meanwhile, Russia is eroding Ukraine's gains in Kursk by pushing Ukrainian front lines back and cutting off supply chains to the ~10,000 Ukrainian troops in Kursk. Ukraine had hoped to use the parts of Kursk it recaptured last year as bargaining chips in a negotiated peace; Russia's recent counter-advance will leave Ukraine with less to offer in a truce. •Separately, Pres. Trump said he was "just about" ready to start sharing intelligence with Ukraine again - now that Ukraine is participating obligingly in peace talks in Saudi. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 March 2025 COMING UP THIS WEEK •U.S. and Ukrainian officials will meet in Saudi Arabia starting tomorrow. Pres. Zelensky is in Saudi and said he was "fully committed" to negotiating an end to the war, but he won't participate in the U.S.-Ukrainian meetings; instead, he'll meet Saudi's Crown Prince MBS for economic talks while his delegates meet U.S. SecState Rubio et al. •Greenland goes to the polls tomorrow. While the question of independence from Denmark isn't directly on the ballot, analysts will be watching results to see if Greenlanders veer towards candidates in favor of greater autonomy for their island. •China, Iran, and Russia will hold joint naval exercises in the northern Indian Ocean this week. Several countries - including Pakistan, Qatar, South Africa, and the UAE - will send observers. COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,706/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,450/ton •Cobalt: $26,960/ton •Copper: $9,614/ton •Gold: $2,901/toz •Lead: $2,019/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.60/MMbtu - a three-year high due to supply constraints and cold weather •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $67.06/barrel •Zinc: $2,887/ton GAZA •France, Germany, Italy, and the UK said they would support Egypt's plan for post-war Gaza; however, that plan still faces significant hurdles: the U.S. and Israel have rejected it - Israel more vehemently than the U.S. - and so far no donors have stepped up to commit the first of the $53 billion needed to fund the plan. •Optimists are hopeful for a second-phase ceasefire agreement this week. Israel sent a delegation to Qatar today "in an effort to advance the negotiations," and Hamas said it has received "positive signals" from the Egyptian and Qatari mediators it's been working with. SYRIA •An independent monitor estimated that over 1,000 people - mostly civilians - have been killed in the past week's clashes between the new government's forces and loyalists to the deposed Assad regime in Latakia. •The Assad loyalists clashing with government troops don't appear to be centrally organized or led; rather, the Institute for the Study of War suggests there are multiple small groups of loyalists each independently declaring a "united" front against the new government. •Interim president Ahmed al Sharaa appealed for calm and asked Syrians "to be reassured because the country has the fundamentals for survival." IRAN •Pres. Trump said he wrote a letter to Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, proposing a revival of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran. •Khamenei seemed cold on the idea: he complained about "bullying governments" using talks "as a pathway to have new demands." •Pres. Pezeshkian, meanwhile, seemed more open to talks - but noted that Khamenei calls the shots: "My position has been and will remain that I believe in negotiations, but now we have to follow the parameters set by the supreme leader." UKRAINE •A group of civilian and military analysts unveiled a framework for a ceasefire in Ukraine that came out of their spring 2022 meeting in Geneva. Their proposal calls for a six-mile buffer zone along the 700-mile front lines, which would be patrolled by peacekeepers, including foreign troops (the UK and France have offered to send peacekeepers, but Russia rejected the idea). •Meanwhile, Russia is eroding Ukraine's gains in Kursk by pushing Ukrainian front lines back and cutting off supply chains to the ~10,000 Ukrainian troops in Kursk. Ukraine had hoped to use the parts of Kursk it recaptured last year as bargaining chips in a negotiated peace; Russia's recent counter-advance will leave Ukraine with less to offer in a truce. •Separately, Pres. Trump said he was "just about" ready to start sharing intelligence with Ukraine again - now that Ukraine is participating obligingly in peace talks in Saudi.
Open source reportOff Leash update 7 March 2025 SYRIA •Armed loyalists to deposed dictator Bashar al Assad - including many from Assad's minority Alawite sect - have been giving Syria's new government - largely comprised of former Sunni Islamists - a headache. •As is often the case in Syria, reporting is murky and it's hard to tell what actually happened and in what sequence. Officials said police carried out a successful operation in Jableh yesterday to arrest Gen. Ibrahim Huweija - a former henchman of Assad's father and a suspect in the 1977 murder of Lebanese Druze leader Kamal Bek Jumblatt. •But police faced fierce resistance from pro-Assad gunmen - perhaps led by Assad's "favorite soldier," Suheil al Hassan - that escalated into multiple clashes in villages across Latakia province, leaving 80 dead (by one report). There are separate reports that Assadists took control of the former dictator's hometown of Qardaha in the scuffle. •The government imposed a nighttime curfew and sent reinforcements - including helicopter gunships - to Latakia, while begging Syrians to refrain from "raising sectarian sentiments." EUROPE AND UKRAINE •All 27 European leaders approved proposals to "facilitate significant defense spending at national level in all Member States" after a summit yesterday. •All of them except Hungary's Prime Minister Orban approved a separate measure reaffirming "Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity." Orban abstained and instead said that Hungary would conduct a non-binding mail-in poll on allowing Ukraine to join the EU. [Orban made his position on that question clear to voters in a public statement declaring that Ukraine's accession to the EU "will destroy Hungarian farmers and Hungarian agriculture; ... it will destroy the entire Hungarian national economy, and I have no idea how we will control the crime that will flood into Hungary with this."] •Separately, the European Space Agency's new heavy-lift rocket, Ariane 6, successfully carried out its first commercial mission yesterday with the launch of a French military reconnaissance satellite. The EU previously depended on Russia's Soyuz rockets to put large satellites into orbit, but that arrangement ended in 2022 with the start of the Ukraine war. Now the EU has its own, independent launch capabilities. TRADE •Pres. Trump announced another reprieve on tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods after the levies imposed this week caused stock markets to tumble. •Now goods covered by the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) that Trump enacted during his first term will be exempt from the new 25% tariffs for one month. •The White House estimates that around 38% of Canadian imports and 50% of Mexican imports are covered by USMCA and will thus be exempt until April 2, when Trump plans to impose reciprocal tariffs on all trading partners. •Pres. Sheinbaum of Mexico and Prime Minister Trudeau of Canada are still lobbying for a permanent reprieve. •China, meanwhile, has refused to bargain over the additional 10% tariffs applied to Chinese imports to the U.S. this week. Instead, Beijing warned that it will fight "any type of war" with the U.S. - including a trade war. So the new 10% added tariffs on Chinese goods will remain in place. CRYPTO •Prices for the five cryptocurrencies that will be included in the new U.S. strategic crypto reserve - BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, and ADA - dropped after the final order forming the reserve said it would be formed from the U.S. government's existing crypto holdings - and not from new purchases, as investors had expected.
Open source reportOff Leash update 6 March UKRAINE AND EUROPE •Days after suspending U.S. military support for Ukraine, the U.S. has stopped sharing intelligence - including targeting information - with Ukraine too. •Ukraine has access to other sources of intelligence and the U.S. provides only 20% of its military support, so the U.S. suspensions won't immediately turn the tide of the war. A Ukrainian lawmaker told RBC-Ukraine that his military "has a safety margin of about six months even without systematic assistance from the United States, but it will be much more difficult, of course." •U.S. officials told the NYT that the suspensions are intended to last for just a week or two to nudge Pres. Zelensky to - as the NYT Kyiv bureau chief put it - "agree to [Pres. Trump's ceasefire] terms in advance, without knowing what they are." •Meanwhile, France's Pres. Macron continues to step up to fill the leadership vacuum left behind as the U.S. retreats from Ukraine. Macron said yesterday that France is open to the idea of extending the protection of its nuclear umbrella to its European allies. [France and the UK are the only European countries with nukes.] GAZA •Reuters reported that U.S. hostage envoy Adam Boehler met directly with Hamas representatives in Qatar in recent weeks to demand the release of the only surviving Israeli-American hostage and the return of the remains of four other dual citizen hostages who died in captivity. •Axios reported separately that Boehler's discussions with Hamas were mainly focused on securing the release of U.S. citizen hostages - which is well within Boehler's purview as a hostage envoy - but also touched on the potential for a long-term truce, which Hamas would want to secure in exchange for freeing the hostages. •It was believed to be the first time U.S. officials have directly engaged with Hamas, which the U.S. designated as a terrorist organization in 1997. •Pres. Trump then doubled down on Boehler's demands with a Truth Social post directed at Hamas, ordering it to "release all of the hostages now, not later, and immediately return all of the dead bodies of the people you murdered, or it is OVER for you." MOZAMBIQUE •Yesterday, Mozambique's Pres. Chapo signed an agreement with rival political parties ending their challenge against his election victory and quelling the violent protests resulting from it. •However, he excluded his chief rival, opposition leader Venâncio Mondlane, from the process. Mondlane called his supporters to the streets to protest against Chapo and his government in response, and police injured at least 16 protesters with live fire. So much for quelling violent protests. SOUTH SUDAN •South Sudan's police arrested oil minister Puot Kang Chol and the opposition SPLM-IO's military leader, Gen. Gabriel Doup Lam, this week. Both Chol and Lam are allies of Vice Pres. Machar, whose long-standing feud with Pres. Kiir has re-escalated in recent months. •The BBC reported that Kiir has ordered the arrest of all senior military commanders allied with Machar, and watchers are concerned that Kiir and Machar will tear up their fragile 2018 peace deal and resume civil war. TRADE •Pres. Trump agreed to a one-month reprieve on tariffs on auto imports from Canada and Mexico to the U.S. after a call with auto executives on Tuesday. In return, GM, Ford, and Stellantis agreed to move more of their production to the U.S.
Open source reportOff Leash update 27 Feb Ukraine •The new U.S.-Ukraine mineral deal is taking shape quickly: it was only announced Tuesday (though speculation was swirling before that), and Pres. Zelensky will fly to Washington tomorrow to sign the final agreement. •Negotiators leaked a draft of the agreement dated Tuesday to the media, and several outlets published the full text (https://t.co/WCfpbsvV3e). Some takeaways: oUkraine will put half of its revenues from future mineral and energy sales into a new, U.S.-controlled investment fund that will reinvest some of the funds into rebuilding Ukraine. oThe fund will only draw on revenues from new projects; proceeds from existing mines, oil wells, etc. are not part of this arrangement. oThe only reference to U.S. security guarantees is highly noncommittal - paragraph 10 says the U.S. "supports Ukraine’s effort to obtain security guarantees needed to establish lasting peace" - but Zelensky said he's content with that wording. Trump told his cabinet the onus for security guarantees should be on Europe - not the U.S. oTrump's initial demands for a $500 billion contribution target and Ukraine's commitment to repay twice the amount of any future U.S. aid were both omitted from the draft. •Ukraine has large untapped reserves of several critical minerals whose development could contribute to this fund, including uranium (Europe's largest reserves!), graphite, lithium, titanium, natural gas, and rare earths. However, around 40% of its mineral resources are in regions Russia controls - and would likely keep in a peace deal. Gaza •Hamas and Israel both fulfilled their part of a delicate hostage-prisoner swap yesterday: Hamas returned the remains of four deceased hostages - and crucially, did so without any of the macabre theatrics that marred prior handovers - and Israel began releasing the 600-plus Palestinian prisoners it agreed to free in return. •This swap went smoothly, but the Gaza ceasefire remains fragile, and Israel and Hamas still haven't agreed on terms for the second phase that begins on Sunday. •Israel estimates that Hamas now holds about 25 living and 30 deceased hostages. Syria •Prominent Syrians who attended Pres. al Sharaa's two-day nation-building conference this week left underwhelmed. Several said the summit was poorly organized, left out key stakeholders (like the Syrian Democratic Forces), and failed to make meaningful progress towards planning Syria's future. Venezuela •Pres. Trump announced that he was cancelling Biden-era concessions that allowed Chevron to continue producing and exporting Venezuelan oil because Pres. Maduro failed to implement promised electoral and immigration reforms. •Chevron's license to continue production and export despite sanctions brought an estimated $4 billion into Maduro's state coffers and represented around a quarter of Venezuelan oil production while it was in force. Sahel •The Alliance of Sahel States - Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger - unveiled a new flag for the triad their juntas formed in opposition to ECOWAS. •In keeping with their modus operandi of doing the opposite of whatever their former colonizer - France - would do, the flag they designed is an affront to modern vexillology that breaks all the important rules of flag design (no lettering, simple design a child could draw from memory, 2-3 basic colors that contrast well, etc.)
Open source reportOff Leash update 25 Feb Ukraine and Russia •After hosting France's Pres. Macron at the White House, Pres. Trump told reporters that the war in Ukraine - which started three years ago yesterday - could be over "within weeks." •Trump added that he may visit Moscow in the coming months to advance peace talks with Pres. Putin - to the chagrin of Pres. Zelensky and EU leaders, who bemoan being left out of bilateral U.S.-Russia talks. •Meanwhile at the UN, the U.S. voted against a non-binding European resolution condemning Russia for the war and calling on it to withdraw immediately from Ukraine. The U.S. instead introduced its own, softer resolution that still called for a quick end to the war, but - in the NYT's reading - "essentially sid[ed] with Moscow over longtime allies." •Separately, China's Pres. Xi and Russia's Pres. Putin spoke by video call yesterday. After the call, Xi gushed that China and Russia are "true friends who have been through thick and thin together," which led analysts to suggest that the point of the call was to disprove speculation that Putin's rapprochement with Trump comes at the cost of weakening Russia's bond with China. Gaza •The first phase of the Gaza ceasefire deal ends Sunday, and Israel and Hamas have reportedly not yet started negotiating the second phase. Hamas now says it will only return to negotiations if Israel releases the 620 Palestinian prisoners it was due to release over the weekend. DRC •DRC surprised the cobalt market with a new four-month ban on exports of the metal - 77% of which is produced in DRC (mainly in the southern copper belt - this is unrelated to the insecurity plaguing the east). •The export ban is intended to buoy cobalt prices - which have fallen by about 25% in the past year because of declining demand amidst a supply glut - but it won't be a long-term fix for the oversupplied cobalt market. That's because almost all of DRC's cobalt is produced as a byproduct of copper or nickel production, which will continue apace. The resulting cobalt byproduct will just be stockpiled in DRC, and - as soon as the export ban is lifted - it will flood the market, crashing prices again. •Some analysts are suggesting the export ban could harm DRC's long-term production potential because it could scare shocked buyers into sourcing from alternate producers with greater regulatory transparency - like Indonesia. •Meanwhile, the situation in the east continues to devolve, and the International Rescue Committee reports that at least 40,000 Congolese have fled to Burundi. Prime Minister Judith Suminwa Tuluka told the UN Human Rights Council that 7,000 people have died in recent weeks - roughly double the UN's earlier estimate. •DRC closed its airspace to Rwandan aircraft - though I'm not sure what good that decree will do when Rwanda already controls eastern DRC's two main airports. Syria •Syria's new leaders have been courting international partners in an effort to win allies and relief from sanctions imposed on the deposed Assad regime. Their efforts are paying off...but slowly. •Yesterday, EU foreign ministers agreed to ease restrictions on the central bank and energy sectors, lift asset freezes for five banks, suspend sanctions on the transport sector, and indefinitely extend an exemption allowing humanitarian aid delivery. •The EU's relief measures will help, but Syria still needs far more help to rebuild. U.S. sanctions remain in place, and Syria's central bank remains barred from the global SWIFT network. Venezuela •Another opposition activist, Reinaldo Araujo, died in Venezuelan jail from chronic health problems that deteriorated since his arrest on Jan. 9. Opposition-linked NGOs estimate 20 political prisoners have now died in detention. •Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado blamed Pres. Maduro's regime for Araujo's death and renewed her call on Maduro to free all political prisoners. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 19 Feb DRC •The situation in eastern DRC is unraveling quickly, with both Rwanda and Uganda now actively fighting to tear off pieces of DRC in a manner akin to how the Soviets and Nazis raced to rip Poland into pieces. •After capturing Bukavu over the weekend, Rwandan troops are continuing south and captured Kamanyo yesterday. Their next target could be the city of Uvira. •Meanwhile, Ugandan troops invaded Bunia in the north and called on Congolese forces there to surrender their weapons within 24 hours. The Ugandans appear to be heading for Butembo, and are attacking all Congolese army positions along the way. Ukraine •Senior U.S. and Russian delegations - led by SecState Rubio and Foreign Minister Lavrov - met in Saudi Arabia yesterday for the most significant direct talks between their countries in years. •The main purpose of their summit was to align on a path towards ending the war in Ukraine, but they also agreed to explore what Rubio called "the incredible opportunities that exist to partner with the Russians, geopolitically...and economically" - though Rubio also noted that U.S. sanctions on Russia will remain in place, for now. •European leaders who were left out of the summit - Ukraine's Pres. Zelensky most of all - expressed disappointment that the U.S. would so easily embrace a geopolitical rival after years of leading multilateral efforts to isolate it, and complained that Ukraine must be included in meetings about its future. •Zelensky's complaints about being left out drew a sharp rebuke from Pres. Trump, who appeared to blame Ukraine for being invaded and failing to launch peace talks sooner: "You should have never started it. You could have made a deal." [Trump also taunted Zelensky's low approval ratings, though he cited an inaccurate figure of 4%. Zelensky won 57% approval in the latest survey reported.] •Former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson observed that "Trump’s statements are not intended to be historically accurate but to shock Europeans into action." It seems to be working: EU leaders are organizing another, more inclusive emergency summit on Ukraine tomorrow. Gaza •Hamas reportedly extended an unsolicited offer - apparently at Egypt's behest - to kick off the second phase of ceasefire negotiations with Israel. Under its offer, Hamas would release all of its remaining hostages and hand over control of Gaza to the Palestinian Authority (which governs the West Bank), in exchange for a permanent ceasefire and full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. •Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu bluntly shut the idea down in a post on X: "Not going to happen." Netanyahu is committed to disarming Hamas and evicting it from Gaza altogether - conditions which Hamas has rejected and called "ridiculous psychological warfare." •Meanwhile, Egypt's Pres. Al Sisi will present his broader vision for Gaza in Riyadh tomorrow. Al Sisi's plan is said to call on Arab states to contribute up to to $20 billion to rebuild Gaza. Egyptian and Jordanian diplomats said (off the record) that Pres. Trump has agreed to the Egyptian plan, which was concocted as an alternative to Trump's initial proposal that controversially called for Gazans to be resettled elsewhere. Sudan •Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) said that it, too, plans to form a new government for Sudan. The RSF's government will rival the new government the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) recently said it would form as soon as it retakes Khartoum from the RSF. •The RSF and SAF have been fighting each other in a grueling civil war for nearly two years, so it was pretty clear that their former alliance was over. This week's news that they both intend to establish rival governments merely formalizes their split. •Side note: The fact that the RSF made its announcement from a government convention center in Nairobi, Kenya seems to corroborate the SAF's claims that Kenya is supporting the RSF. Syria 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 5 Feb Israel and Gaza •Pres. Trump received Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at the White House yesterday. •Netanyahu was the first foreign leader Trump invited to visit during his new term, and analysts suggested Trump's invitation was intended to mend bilateral ties that Trump's envoys tested by pushing Netanyahu to agree to a Gaza ceasefire deal that Netanyahu's hardline supporters opposed. •Following their meeting, Trump proposed that the U.S. take control of the Gaza Strip after permanently relocating the two million Palestinians living there to "other countries of interest with humanitarian hearts." It's not clear which other countries would accept permanently-displaced Palestinians: Egypt and Jordan have both rejected Trump's request to take them in. Syria •Pres. Al Sharaa continued his first foreign tour with a visit to Turkiye, which is home to about three million Syrian refugees. •Turkiye has offered to help train and equip Syria's new army - in part, because it wants to ensure Kurdish groups like the People's Protection Units (YPG) aren't welcome in the new force. •Al Sharaa, on the other hand, wants the new army to be more inclusive, and said he has "asked [Turkiye] to wait in order to give space for the negotiations" with the YPG and other Kurdish groups. Turkiye seems to be obliging for now, but may feel pushed to intervene if Al Sharaa prolongs negotiations. •Al Sharaa also gave his first media interview since becoming interim president to The Economist, and it was a bit testier than his recent pronouncements promising inclusivity and peace. He warned Israel of "trouble in the future" if it keeps control of the terrain it captured as the Assad regime fell in December, and called the U.S. military presence in eastern Syria "illegal." •Al Sharaa was vague about his plans for elections and democratic governance, only offering that the country was "heading in the direction of" democracy. North Korea •A Ukrainian commander told Business Insider that the North Korean soldiers his company fought against in Russia were treated like "cannon fodder" and "would just charge forward from the tree line, like in a World War II movie." •His account of the North Koreans' unconventional battle tactics was consistent with other reports of their chaotic and seemingly fearless battlefield movements. Russia has since withdrawn the (reportedly decimated) North Korean units from the front lines, and some analysts have speculated they're being retrained in modern battle tactics before they return to the front lines.
Open source reportOff Leash update 23 Jan Yemen •Yemen's Houthi rebels released the crew of the Galaxy Leader - a ship they hijacked at the beginning of their stranglehold on Red Sea shipping lanes in Nov. 2023 - citing "coordination with the Hamas movement." The Houthis had conditioned the crew's release upon a ceasefire in Gaza, and made good on that pledge by freeing them on Day 4 of the ceasefire. •The Houthis have also pledged to scale back their Red Sea attacks to focus on Israeli-linked ships, but - as I noted on Monday - many analysts are skeptical that they'd relinquish the lucrative business of selling safe passage guarantees that blossomed because of their attacks on vessels that haven't paid up. •Unrelatedly, Pres. Trump signed an executive order re-designating the Houthis a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO). Trump had designated the Houthis a FTO - and a Specially Designated Global Terrorist group - in his first term, but ex-Pres. Biden lifted both designations to facilitate humanitarian aid flows to Yemen. Ukraine •Pres. Zelensky spoke at Davos yesterday with a warning that Pres. Trump's "America First" priorities will leave a geopolitical leadership gap, and called on European Union (EU) leaders to fill it: "Europe needs to compete for the top spot in priorities, alliances and technological development." Russia •European Commission Vice President Kaja Kallas delivered a similar message at the European Defense Agency, warning that "Russia could test the EU's readiness to defend itself in three to five years" and calling on the EU to spend more on defense and "prepare for the worst." •Kallas pointed out that Russia currently spends 9% of its GDP on defense - compared to a collective EU average of 1.9% - and is far better equipped than the EU for a further military buildup upon escalation. She noted, for example, that Russia can produce more weapons and ammunition in three months than the EU's 27 countries can produce collectively in 12 months, and called for EU countries to earmark more for defense. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 20 January •Today's a big day in global events... •First, President Trump will be re-inaugurated at noon. The ceremony will be held inside the capital for the first time in 40 years due to freezing temperatures. And China's Vice President, Han Zheng, will attend the inauguration, marking the first time a senior Chinese official has ever attended a U.S. inauguration. •Trump's critics will prefer to celebrate Martin Luther King Day today. •The World Economic Forum starts today in Davos. This year's theme is "Collaboration for the Intelligent Age." •The Ohio State Buckeyes play the Notre Dame Fighting Irish for the NCAA football title at 7:30 pm ET tonight. The Buckeyes are favored by 8.5 points. You can watch on ESPN in the U.S. or stream on DirecTV, YouTube TV, etc. •The Winter X Games start Wednesday and end Friday in Buttermilk, Colorado. You can watch live and for free on the Roku Sports Channel in the U.S. and on YouTube abroad. •Belarus votes for president on Sunday, and I can already spare you the suspense and tell you that Pres. Lukashenko will be reelected. He's the only president Belarus has ever had, and all four of the candidates approved to run "against" him are staunchly pro-regime: they were only included on the ballot to create a veneer of democratic legitimacy for a sham vote to rubber-stamp Lukashenko's certain win. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,685/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $33,550/ton •Cobalt: $24,300/ton •Copper: $9,190/ton •Gold: $2,707/toz •Lead: $1,967/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.79/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $77.37/barrel •Zinc: $2,942/ton Gaza •Israel's security cabinet approved the Gaza ceasefire deal and it went into effect yesterday. •In accordance with the terms of the deal, Hamas released three hostages and Israel released 90 Palestinian prisoners. •Their next exchange is due to take place on Jan. 25, when Hamas will release four living female hostages in exchange for Israel freeing 30-50 more Palestinian prisoners. •After the ceasefire went into effect, masked and armed Hamas fighters fanned out across Gaza in what the NYT called a "show of force" for the populace. An analyst assessed: "[t]hey’re conveying that Hamas must be a part of any future arrangements, or at least, be coordinated with." •Despite the public display of confidence, Hamas's future role in Gaza is at risk. Israel's foreign minister reiterated yesterday that Israel had not agreed to let Hamas remain in power in Gaza, and instead noted: "[w]e are determined to achieve the objectives of the war" (which included destroying Hamas). Yemen •Yemen's Houthis launched their Red Sea shipping blockade ostensibly in solidarity with Hamas in Gaza, so watchers are wondering if they'll loosen their chokehold on regional shipping now that a ceasefire has taken effect in Gaza - or if the spoils of their ransom and protection payments are too attractive to forego. •Some analysts - including at The Economist - think the Houthis may choose to continue their lucrative racket exploiting the shipping industry even after the war in Gaza ends. •The Houthis released a statement yesterday saying they would be "stopping sanctions" on (i.e., no longer targeting) non-Israel-aligned ships...but they always claimed they were targeting only Israel-aligned ships, so this doesn't seem like a change of stance at all. •The Houthis plan to release a military statement today with further information about their future plans. China •TikTok said it would "go dark" in the U.S. after the U.S. Supreme Court upheld a law that would ban the app unless its parent company sold it to non-Chinese owners. •The app was down for about 12 hours, but then Pres.-elect Trump promised to issue an executive order delaying enforcement of the ban - "TikTok is back!" - upon taking office today, and the app re-opened to U.S. users. Libya 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 8 January Sudan •The U.S. Treasury formally accused the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) of perpetrating genocide in Sudan and slapped additional sanctions on RSF leader Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (aka Hemedti) and seven Emirati companies that have helped him export gold and import weapons. •This is the second time the U.S. has called out genocide in Sudan: the first was 20 years ago when it sanctioned the Janjaweed - a precursor to the RSF back when the RSF was aligned with the military and before it started fighting against it - of genocide in Darfur. •The genocide accusation and attached sanctions won't have much of an immediate effect on the raging war since Hemedti is already well armed. In fact, the move could turn out to be counterproductive if it repels Hemedti from negotiations. •Meanwhile, the military is gaining ground against the RSF in Omdurman, which is across the Nile from Khartoum. Ukraine and Russia •Ukrainian drones targeted Kursk's Engel oil depot, which supplies many of the long-range bombers Russia is using to strike Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Russia claimed its air defenses intercepted the attack, mitigating its damage. •Despite Ukraine's new offensive in Kursk, Russia continues to gain ground inside Ukraine. Earlier this week, Russian forces captured the strategic eastern Ukrainian town of Kurakhove after months of fighting. •Some analysts think Ukraine's Kursk offensive is intended to draw Russian resources away from the front lines in Ukraine and slow Russia's advance there. Venezuela •Pres. Maduro announced the arrest of seven foreign "mercenaries" who he says were planning "terrorist acts" to disrupt his (illegitimate) inauguration on Friday. •Maduro said the group included two Colombian "hitmen," three "mercenaries" from Ukraine, and two U.S. citizens who were "very high level" (though he didn't say at what). •Maduro expressed confidence that the seven will confess "in the next few hours." Afghanistan •The WSJ reported that the Biden Administration is in talks with the Taliban to free three U.S. citizens from Afghan jail in exchange for the release of Muhammad Rahim al Afghani - a senior Al Qaeda leader with direct links to Osama bin Laden - from Guantanamo Bay. •The specific terms aren't agreed yet: for example, the Taliban says it is only holding two of the three Americans the U.S. requested (all of whom were jailed in the past two years under Taliban rule), and it wants the U.S. to release two more Afghan prisoners (who are not at Guantanamo) as well. •Biden's critics are already calling it a bad deal. It is... Gaza •Incoming Pres. Trump will send an envoy to Doha for last-ditch negotiations to try to secure a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal before Trump's inauguration on Jan. 20. Trump warned that "all hell will break out" if the talks fail to produce a deal before his inauguration. Other News •The UK's new electronic travel authorization (ETA) system goes into effect today. •Travelers to the UK from many non-European countries - including the U.S., Canada, Australia, and Mexico - will now have to apply for an ETA online (https://t.co/S6qsn94JfX or via iOS or Google Play apps) and pay a £10 ($12.51) fee with each application. •Processing takes up to three days, and authorizations are good for multiple entries over a two year period or until the authorized passport expires, whichever is shorter. •After April 2, travelers to the UK from European countries will need to apply for an ETA too.
Open source reportDonald Trump warned Hamas that “all hell is going to break out” unless the hostages were released by his January 20, 2025 inauguration.
Open source reportOff Leash update 13 Dec Iran The head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC), Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami, offered state media some comments on the rapid upheaval that ousted Pres. Assad last week. Salami claimed the IRGC fought with Assad until the end - "the last person who left the battlefield was an IRGC soldier" - but is now adjusting to the new geopolitical "realities" of post-Assad Syria. That seems like a pointed message to the rebels the IRGC previously helped Assad assault - those who now control Syria - that Iran is accepting their victory and abandoning Assad. Syria Rebels raiding ex-Pres. Assad's palace discovered Borat among the deposed dictator's DVDs. I hope Sacha Baron Cohen autographed that copy with the same dedication he offered Assad in a 2012 press conference: "my dear friend and doubles-tennis partner, President Assad of Syria." [Cohen was in character as Gen. Aladeen of The Dictator, and went on to praise the United Nations for its inaction in Syria with biting satire.] The NYT reported that U.S. intelligence is carefully reevaluating its designation of the group leading the rebellion - Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) - as a "terrorist organization." HTS's precursors and current leaders earned the designation on merit when they aligned with Al Qaeda and Islamic State, but it now claims to have severed ties with terrorists and is paying much lip service to governance. Repealing the designation would make it easier for the U.S. to work with Syria's new leadership as it begins reconstruction. Meanwhile, Israel's military said it would stay in Syria until the establishment of "a new force" that can prevent anti-Israel militants from filling the void and using Syrian territory to attack Israel. Critics worry the Israeli presence could become permanent. Gaza U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan is still hopeful for a Israel-Hamas ceasefire "this month." Sullivan has been meeting with Israeli officials - including Prime Minister Netanyahu - this week, and left meetings optimistic that "the surround sound of these negotiations is different today than it has been in the past." However, Sullivan conceded that a deal still "might not happen," and there are no indications of a breakthrough on the sticking points that have doomed past deal proposals. Next he'll visit Egypt and Qatar to meet with mediators to discuss Hamas's position. With a peace deal still elusive, Israel continued to target terrorists in Gaza. One airstrike on the refugee camp of Nuseirat in central Gaza targeted a Palestinian Islamic Jihad leader and killed over 30 people. Ukraine Russia's ground forces are pushing towards the Donetsk transit hub of Pokrovsk amidst "extremely fierce" fighting. They're now within three miles (five kilometers) of the city's outskirts. Ukraine's top military leader, Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, lamented that a successful defense of Pokrovsk will require "unconventional decisions." Syrsky didn't elaborate on what form those decisions may take, but on two similar occasions in the past - in Kharkiv in 2022 and in Kursk earlier this year - Ukraine launched surprise offensives along new fronts to draw Russian attention and resources from a desperate defensive line elsewhere. We'll see if Syrsky draws on the same playbook this time. Russia also launched a new air barrage on Ukrainian infrastructure targets overnight, forcing Ukraine into yet another round of emergency power outages. China Pres.-elect Trump invited China's Pres. Xi Jinping to attend his inauguration in Washington on Jan. 20, 2025. Xi hasn't publicly RSVPed yet. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 11 Dec Gaza •Ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas are said to be gaining steam under pressure from Pres.-elect Trump to close a deal soon. [Last week, Trump threatened that there would be "ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East" if hostages weren't released before his inauguration on Jan. 20]. •However, there are no indications that either side has relented on the sticking point that stalled prior talks: Hamas doesn't want to release the rest of its hostages until Israel completely withdraws from Gaza, and Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu has vowed to stay and fight in Gaza until Hamas is evicted from the strip. •Qatar's Prime Minister Al Thani - who is a central mediator between Israel and Hamas - said most of the mechanics of a deal have been worked out, but noted that prospects for an agreement will boil down to whether either side is willing to make concessions to end the war. Syria •Much of deposed Pres. Assad's cabinet stayed on when Assad and his family fled to Moscow, and rebel leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani (who has now rebranded himself "Pres. Ahmed al Shara" on Telegram) met Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi Jalali yesterday to begin transition planning. They jointly appointed Mohammed al-Bashir to form a new transition government. •Al-Golani and Jalili are trying to project an air of normalcy and ensure continuity of government operations, but a UN official said Syria's public sector had come to a "complete and abrupt halt." Many offices remain closed, but overall Syria seems mostly orderly: the only looting taking place is some vengeful trophy hunting from Assad's palaces. •Meanwhile, Israel continued to strike military targets across Syria, but maintains that its ground operations are limited to a demilitarized buffer zone east of the occupied Golan Heights - and intended to prevent advanced weaponry from falling into rebel hands. However, several skeptical Syrian sources say Israeli ground troops have pushed about six miles (10 km) past the buffer zone to the town of Qatana. China •Taiwan reported that China is deploying a massive naval fleet to participate in war games around Taiwan in response to Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te first official trip abroad - which China viewed as a provocation since Lai visited U.S. territory (Hawaii and Guam) and met remotely with U.S. officials. China hasn't yet confirmed plans for military drills. Guyana •Guyana submitted a "final" written brief in its 125-year-old territorial dispute with Venezuela to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), which claims jurisdiction over the case. •The case is likely to drag on for years to come: Venezuela has until Aug. 8 to submit its reply to Guyana's latest brief, and the ICJ will set a date after that for oral arguments to begin. Venezuela •The UN's High Commissioner for Human Rights said his agency has been "able to resume partly our activities" in Venezuela after a hiatus of nearly ten months. The watchdog seems to be investigating the July election Pres. Maduro stole: last week it ordered Maduro's government to refrain from destroying vote tally sheets and other election evidence.
Open source reportOff Leash update 28 Nov Lebanon •The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire that took effect yesterday is largely holding - although thousands of displaced Lebanese began to return to southern villages before Israeli forces withdrew and lifted movement restrictions. Israeli soldiers opened fire on "suspects" and vehicles that violated movement restrictions in at least six villages. •On the other side of the border, tens of thousands of displaced Israeli civilians seem more reluctant to trust the truce and aren't rushing to return to the homes they fled. •They have good reason to be wary: in its first official statement since the ceasefire announcement, Hezbollah vowed to continue its resistance and monitor the Israeli withdrawal from border regions with "hands on the trigger." •Despite its tough talk, Hezbollah was clearly the turkey in this deal: it lost an estimated 4,000 fighters and most of its senior leadership in the past three months and gained nothing from the truce except an end to a war Hamas started. Syria •Syria's Pres. Assad has long relied on Hezbollah and other Iran-backed Shia allies to keep rebel Sunni groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in check in the northwest. •Now conflicts with Israel have severely diminished Iran's proxies, and Al Qaeda-linked HTS spied an opportunity to gobble back territory around Aleppo. HTS and its allied factions launched their most significant attacks on Syrian government forces since the 2020 ceasefire, capturing the largest Syrian army base there - Base 46 - and encroaching to within three miles (five km) of Aleppo city. •Assad's air force - along with its Russian allies and unnamed "friendly forces" - claimed that it responded with a devastating counterattack, but local reports suggest fighting is ongoing - which would portend regime weakness and much more volatility to come. Ukraine •Pres.-elect Trump appointed Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Keith Kellogg to the new post of Special Envoy to Russia and Ukraine, where he'll be tasked with overseeing efforts to bring about a quick end to the war. •Analysts are looking to an April 2024 position paper Kellogg wrote for insight into how he might approach that task. One idea his paper suggested was "to put off NATO membership [for Ukraine] for an extended period" to draw Pres. Putin into negotiations. •Separately, Russia launched another massive barrage of drones and missiles at over 180 targets in western Ukraine near Lviv - far from the front lines. Ukraine intercepted a majority of the projectiles, but the handful that reached their targets took out electricity for over one million Ukrainians. China •According to the Wall Street Journal, Baltic investigators have a theory on how two undersea cables were severed on consecutive days last week. •Investigators believe the Chinese bulk carrier Yi Peng 3 deliberately dragged its anchor along the seabed for more than 100 miles (160 km) and across the two affected cables. As one investigator pointed out: "It’s extremely unlikely that the captain would not have noticed that his ship dropped and dragged its anchor, losing speed for hours and cutting cables on the way." •They don't think the Chinese government was involved, but they do suspect Russian intelligence was. (The Kremlin called these "absurd, unsubstantiated accusations.") Mexico •Pres.-elect Trump and Mexico's Pres. Sheinbaum spoke by phone yesterday to address Trump's concerns about illegal immigration through Mexico - and his threat to slap a 25% tariff on Mexican imports to the U.S. if Mexico doesn't address his immigration concerns. •Trump's readout suggested the conversation was easy as pie: he said Sheinbaum agreed to "stop Migration through Mexico, and into the United States, effectively closing our Southern Border." 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 26 Nov Tariffs •President-elect Trump said he would sign an executive order on his first day in office - Jan. 20, 2025 - to slap new tariffs of 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico, and 10% on China. Trump called the levies a "price" those nations must pay for their failure to stop the flow of illegal drugs and immigrants to the U.S. •All three affected countries immediately objected to the proposed tariffs. Canada objected politely, explaining that it's already working well with U.S. officials to block fentanyl trafficking "from China and other countries." •China, meanwhile, objected with hostility, calling the idea that it would deliberately send fentanyl precursors to the U.S. runs "completely counter to facts," and ominously warning that "no one will win a trade war or a tariff war." Hezbollah •It sounds like Israel and Hezbollah are close to finalizing a ceasefire deal that would give Israeli forces 60 days to withdraw from Lebanon and require Hezbollah to disarm along the border with Israel, where 5,000 Lebanese troops will deploy to help enforce the peace. •The terms of the latest proposal aren't public, but are said to closely track UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war. Except this time Hezbollah won't be allowed to rebuild its forces along the border. •Prime Minister Netanyahu and his cabinet will meet today to discuss the proposal, and Netanyahu is thought to be open to agreeing to the tabled terms - for once. That may mean Hezbollah and Lebanon gave in to his demand reserving the right to resume hostilities if Hezbollah breaks the truce first. •Meanwhile, Israeli forces have now reached the Litani River, which would form the northern frontier of the border buffer zone the Lebanese army will enforce after Israel withdraws south and Hezbollah withdraws north. Ukraine •Russia launched another new record number of drones at Ukraine overnight, once again targeting Ukrainian infrastructure. •Ukraine said it shot down or blocked most of the 188 drones that were launched over its border, but some reached their targets. •Russia is also making rapid gains on the ground: Reuters reported - citing analysts and war bloggers - that Russian ground forces are currently advancing at their fastest rate since 2022 using rapid, small-scale incursions to achieve footholds and then follow up with reinforcements to secure gains. •Meanwhile, Ukraine requested an emergency meeting of NATO ambassadors in Brussels today to discuss Russia's recent use of an intermediate-range ballistic missile against Dnipro last week. Ukraine hopes for "concrete and meaningful outcomes" from the meeting, but it's unlikely to win enthusiastic support from tired donors. Sudan •The Economist reported that the Sudanese army has made clear recent gains against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in central Sennar state and Khartoum in recent weeks. •The weakened RSF has signaled openness to a truce, but the army isn't willing to talk just yet. The RSF still controls most of southwest Sudan, and the army likely wants to improve its negotiating position by locking in more territorial gains before talks begin. Venezuela •Venezuela's opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado, called for a new day of demonstrations against Pres. Maduro's election theft on Dec 1. •Maduro's Minister of the Interior then accused Machado of orchestrating another conspiracy against Maduro and launched another bullying campaign against the opposition. In this case, police deployed to the Argentine Embassy to intimidate the many opposition figures from Machado's party who have taken refuge there.
Open source reportOff Leash update 12Nov Venezuela •A gas pipeline exploded at the Muscar Operations Center in Venezuela's Eastern Monagas state yesterday, injuring at least five. •The blast also forced state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) to shut down the 63% of the country's fuel supply that comes from the facility. •Though Pres. Maduro may blame his usual bogeymen - the U.S. and its allies - early indications suggest the explosion happened because of poor maintenance and outdated equipment rather than sabotage. •It's not yet clear how long PDVSA's supply will be constrained. Mozambique •Opposition figure Venancio Mondlane called for new protests in Mozambique's cities, ports, and border posts tomorrow. •Authorities quickly - and apparently violently - quelled the first three rounds of demonstrations Mondlane incited against the election that he claims was stolen from him. •Countrywide internet restrictions make it hard to gauge the scale of the unrest, but a prominent Catholic leader said it's "already chaos." Gaza •Israel expanded one of Gaza's humanitarian zones in a token gesture towards meeting the Biden administration's demand to deliver more aid to Gaza or risk losing U.S. military funding. •Biden's national security advisor, Jake Sullivan, seemed to indicate that Biden's ultimatum on Gaza aid was a hollow one and Israel's progress on expanding aid won't be measured against any specific metrics: he told Face the Nation that the White House would evaluate "what sort of progress" Israel has made by tomorrow's deadline and then "make judgments about what we do in response." Iran •Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince MBS condemned Israel for committing "genocide" in Gaza and warned Israel against possible future direct strikes on Iran. •It was the harshest public criticism any Saudi official has made about the war, and perhaps a sign of Saudi's warming consideration for Iran, which sponsors the militants Israel is fighting in Gaza (and Yemen and Lebanon). •Separately, analysts are whispering that Pres. Trump could seek a new deal with Iran once he enters office. Under Pres. Pezeshkian - who is more moderate than his predecessor - Iran could welcome an accord. China •China's military showed off the new, Blackhawk-like Z-20 helicopter at the Zhuhai air show. •Pentagon analysts studied the model while it was being developed, and noted in a recent public report that it "will provide significant improvements in ASW (anti-submarine warfare) capabilities over the smaller... helicopters the PLAN [People's Liberation Army Navy] currently operates." North Korea •Kim Jong Un formally ratified North Korea's Comprehensive Strategic Partnership treaty with Russia last night, per state media. [Russia already ratified it last week, so with Kim's decree and the exchange of signed documents it will take effect.] •The pact formalizes the mutual defense support that North Korea and Russia are already lending each other, but it doesn't bind them to any specific commitments to come to each other's aid if certain red lines are crossed.
Open source reportOff Leash update 7 Nov Mozambique •Fearing spillover effects from post-election violence in Mozambique, South Africa closed its main border crossing with its eastern neighbor at Lebombo. •Mozambique's independent presidential candidate Venâncio Mondlane - who came in second to the long-ruling Frelimo party's candidate, Daniel Chapo - has called for mass protests today (and then revolution) over allegations that Frelimo rigged the vote. •Frelimo's defense minister has warned that the army and police standing by to quell protests. They've used violence against protesters in recent weeks, killing at least 18, and seem prepared to quash new demonstrations with the same level of force. Iran •Iran's currency fell to an all-time low of 703,000 rials per U.S. dollar yesterday on fears that Pres.-elect Trump will institute tougher sanctions once he takes office. •By comparison, the rial traded at 32,000 per dollar in 2015 when Iran's nuclear deal was signed and 584,000 this July 30 when Pres. Pezeshkian was sworn in. •Though currency markets suggest otherwise, some Iranians interviewed in the NYT expressed hope for negotiations during Trump's presidency and optimism that Trump will help end the attritive wars Iran's proxies are fighting against Israel. Libya •After resolving (for now) its civil dispute over oil sector leadership, Libya is making bold moves to reinvigorate the sector. •First, it pushed three existing exploration permit-holders - OMV, Eni / BP, and Repsol - to resume operations last month. •Now, Bloomberg reports that Oil Minister Khalifa Abdul Sadiq plans to open a new round of bidding for onshore and offshore exploration blocks in late 2024 or early 2025. It will be Libya's first new tenders since 2007. Venezuela •Pres. Maduro congratulated Pres.-elect Trump on his election victory (which was legitimate, unlike Maduro's recent win) and expressed hope for a "new beginning that we trust will be a win-win" for both countries. •However, Maduro's optimism seems misplaced. During his first term, Trump tightened sanctions on Venezuela so much that Maduro's government cut off diplomatic relations with the U.S., and Maduro himself conceded yesterday that "In his first administration, President Donald Trump did not go well for us." (Editor's note: Winter is coming for the Maduro Cartel) Germany •Germany's Chancellor Scholz sacked his finance minister, Christian Lindner, effectively ending Scholz's Social Democrat party's coalition with Lindner's Free Democrats. •Their three-way coalition with the Green Party was always a fragile marriage of convenience with no unifying core objectives, so its dissolution was bound to happen at some point. What triggered it now was last week's leak of a position paper the pro-business Linder wrote criticizing his left-leaning coalition partners' progressive fiscal policies. Australia •Australia's government proposed a ban on the use of social media platforms like Instagram, TikTok, Facebook, and X by children under 16; citing the "harm to our kids" caused by unrealistic body image ideals and messages of misogyny. •Australia's ban could go into effect next year, and it's the strictest social media ban proposed to date: it adopts the highest age limit of any global bill so far, and makes no exemptions for parental consent or pre-existing accounts.
Open source reportOff Leash update 28 Oct •The Big Five tech companies - Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft - all report quarterly earnings this week, starting tomorrow. •Hindus celebrate Diwali - the festival of lights - Thursday and Friday. •Moldova votes in a runoff election on Sunday. Pro-Western Pres. Sandu will probably win reelection, despite alleged Russian interference against her. •Daylight savings time begins for the U.S. on Sunday, while Europe changed its clocks back yesterday. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,678/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,100/ton •Cobalt: $24,300/ton •Copper: $9,603/ton •Gold: $2,730/toz •Lead: $2,046/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.43/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $67.47/barrel •Zinc: $3,102/ton Iran •Israel finally carried out its long-telegraphed retaliatory assault against Iran with "precise and targeted strikes" on mostly-symbolic targets, including air defense systems near energy sites (but not the energy sites themselves). Venezuela •Brazil effectively vetoed Venezuela's admission to the BRICS group of emerging economies by leaving Venezuela off of the list of new members it approved. •Pres. Lula's chief of staff explained that Brazil's veto "has nothing to do with democracy, but with a breach of trust...they promised us something and it was not done." •Despite Brazil's explanation, Maduro fumed about the snub as "inexplicable and immoral" and "an action that constitutes an aggression against Venezuela and a hostile gesture." •The veto was all the more embarrassing for Maduro because he'd traveled all the way to Kazan, Russia for the BRICS summit hoping to be welcomed as a future member - and Pres. Lula wasn't even there to reject him in person: Lula stayed home after a health scare and blocked Venezuela's accession in absentia. •However, as a consolation prize, Maduro got a meeting with Pres. Putin on the sidelines. Maduro said they discussed energy and defense cooperation and proposed a "new international financial system" to circumvent sanctions. •Separately, the U.S. Dept. of Justice charged Raul Gorrin Belisario - a Maduro crony who owns the pro-government Globovision news network - with laundering $1.2 billion in "corruptly obtained" oil revenues. Belisario's whereabouts are unknown. Gaza •While a full Gaza ceasefire deal remains elusive, Egypt proposed a baby step towards one. The Egyptian proposal calls for a two-day ceasefire in Gaza in exchange for the release of four Israeli hostages (and some Palestinian prisoners). Neither Israel nor Hamas has responded yet. Libya •Libya's NOC has been cajoling foreign oil firms to fulfill their contractual obligations to drill on their oil licenses, and several license-holders are starting to comply - perhaps reluctantly, given weak oil prices. •Italy's Eni and the UK's BP just began onshore drilling in the Ghadames Basin of Libya after a 10-year hiatus, while Spain's Repsol is preparing to resume drilling in the Murzuq Basin and Austria's OMV aims to restart operations in the Sirte Basin soon. China •The NYT reported that Chinese hackers tried to access cell phones belonging to Donald Trump, J.D. Vance, and possibly Kamala Harris. It's not clear whether they were successful. •Georgia's ruling Russia-appeasing Georgian Dream party won parliamentary elections. The pro-Western opposition rejected the official results, calling them "tantamount to legitimizing Russia’s takeover of Georgia." •Bolivia's ex-Pres. Evo Morales claimed he survived an assassination attempt yesterday and accused his bitter rival, incumbent Pres. Luis Arce, for orchestrating the attack. Meanwhile, Arce's Deputy Security Minister said police are investigating whether Morales had staged "a possible self-attack" to win voters' sympathy. Morales and Arce are locked in a vicious battle over their Movement Toward Socialism party's leadership, and their feud will likely worsen ahead of elections next year.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 20 July Russia •A Russian court sentenced WSJ journalist Evan Gershkovich to 16 years in prison on bogus espionage charges. •Gershkovich probably won't serve all 16 years: Pres. Putin has suggested he could be traded for a high-value Russian prisoner in a swap, but first he had to be sentenced (Russia generally doesn't swap prisoners until after their sentencing). China •China's Third Plenum ended without any meaningful economic policy announcements, disappointing analysts who'd hoped for bolder action to kickstart sluggish domestic growth. •Separately, former president Trump claimed Taiwan "stole" the American semiconductor industry and "should pay" for the U.S. guaranteeing its security. Shares in TSMC - Taiwan's (and the world's) largest chipmaker - slipped 2.4% on concerns that the U.S. might not come to Taiwan's defense if China invades while Trump is president. Venezuela •Venezuela's opposition leader, María Corina Machado - who was blocked from running against Pres. Maduro on July 28 - accused Maduro's goons of staging "a deliberate provocation" to incite her security chief, Milciades Ávila, to come to her physical defense. •Ávila did come to her defense, and he was promptly arrested for it. This is only the latest example of Maduro's security forces intimidating the opposition ahead of the election. •It's not as though Maduro even needs to bully the opposition: he's also electioneering in other ways, including by designing the ballot to show his own name and photo 13 times - under multiple "parties" - before it shows any of the opposition candidates running against him. •Banned from running herself, Machado is supporting the only serious opposition candidate, Edmundo González, who is currently leading several polls - though Maduro certainly won't let him win the real election. Gaza •Israel's far-right national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, paid a provocative visit to the contested holy site of Al Aqsa / Temple Mount in Jerusalem, telling video cameras that he went to pray for the return of Hamas hostages - "but without a reckless deal, without surrendering." •Jordan condemned the visit as "a provocative step" and the White House complained about it as "counterproductive to peace and security in the West Bank" without mentioning Ben-Gvir by name. •Meanwhile, the International Court of Justice ruled that Israel's occupation of the West Bank and East Jerusalem violated international law. Its opinion is nonbinding but influences the media and public perspectives. Terrorism •The Pentagon warned that claimed attacks by Islamic State (IS) are on track to more than double this year vs. last year. •IS has claimed 153 attacks in the first half of 2024 - and in just Syria and Iraq - compared to 121 attacks it claimed in all of 2023 in those two countries. •IS's affiliates have also stepped up their attacks in other regions like Afghanistan (IS-Khorasan) and the Sahel (IS West African Province). •An analyst attributed this year's rise in claimed IS attacks to increasing frustration with the government in Syria and Iraq - which is driving IS's ability to recruit new jihadists there - as well as competition from Iran-linked groups for U.S. counterterrorism priority - which is diverting resources away from fighting IS globally. Minerals •Anglo American said its diamond mining division, De Beers, would cut production amidst falling sales plamed in part on declining demand for diamonds in China.
Open source report