Ukraine diplomacy and U.S.-China tariffs dominate Aug. 11 update

Off Leash update 11 Aug COMING UP THIS WEEK •July U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data comes out tomorrow. Analyst consensus estimates predict a 2.8% year-over-year rise in overall prices due to the effect of new tariffs on imported goods. •Tomorrow is also the end of the 90-day tariff pause Pres. Trump agreed with China to temporarily reduce U.S. tariffs on most Chinese imports from a punishing 145% to a more tolerable 30%. Envoys have aligned on an extension in principle, but it still needs to be formalized. •Presidents Trump and Putin will meet in Alaska on Friday. More on that below. •Beijing hosts the inaugural World Humanoid Robot Games starting Friday. Over 500 humanoid "athletes" will compete in 538 events within 26 different disciplines, ranging from track and field to 5-a-side football (soccer).

COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,609/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $120,596 •Cobalt: $33,335/ton •Copper: $9,762/ton •Ethereum: $4,198 •Gold: $3,363/toz - [Gold futures rose after the U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency unexpectedly ruled that one-kilo and 100-ounce gold bars would be subject to new import tariffs - including a 39% levy on imports from Switzerland, a top exporter of gold to the U.S. Markets then calmed after the White House said it will soon issue an executive order "clarifying misinformation" about tariffs on gold bars.] •Lead: $2,008/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.92/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $64.00/barrel •Zinc: $2,827/ton

UKRAINE •Following U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff's meetings in Moscow last week, the White House announced that Presidents Trump and Putin will meet in person in Alaska this Friday (Aug. 15) to discuss ideas for ending the war in Ukraine. •Trump noted that a possible ceasefire proposal would involve "some swapping of territories," which analysts took to mean that Ukraine would be asked to cede some of its eastern regions to their Russian occupants. •Ukraine has repeatedly rejected the idea of a land swap, and Pres. Zelensky pre-emptively reiterated that position yesterday in advance of Friday's talks. Zelensky wasn't invited to Alaska on Friday, and Ukrainians are worried that Trump will make unwanted concessions to Putin on their behalf. •[Zelensky also pointed out the irony of the Putin-Trump meeting - in which Putin hopes to reestablish control over eastern Ukraine largely on the basis that it was once Russian territory - taking place in Alaska, which was also previously Russian territory. A cash-strapped Russia sold Alaska to the U.S. in 1867 for $7.2 million (about $154 million today), and thus far Putin hasn't mentioned wanting to take it back.] •Seven European leaders - including France's Pres. Macron and Germany's Chancellor Merz - penned a joint statement standing behind a sidelined Ukraine and declaring that "the path to peace in Ukraine cannot be decided without Ukraine." European foreign ministers will meet today to align their support for Ukraine ahead of Friday's summit excluding it. 1/2