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16 direct mentions across 16 briefings, with 15 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
Macron continued his scheduled visit despite the nearby blasts and agreed with Syrian interim President Ahmed al Sharaa to reinstate ambassadors. Macron also offered French assistance with rebuilding Syria.
Unverified development · updated through
Macron continued his scheduled visit despite the nearby blasts and agreed with Syrian interim President Ahmed al Sharaa to reinstate ambassadors. Macron also offered French assistance with rebuilding Syria.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Emmanuel Macron dossier
10 mapped developments across 5 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
France
France’s legislative election resulted in a hung parliament and that President Emmanuel Macron’s party and coalition lost roughly one-third of their seats amid gains on the left and far right.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 22 July 2026 UKRAINE •Pres. Zelensky heeded protesters' calls and fired his top general, Oleksandr Syrskyi. •Syrskyi had clashed with ex-defense minister Mykhailo Federov over Federov's innovative (and, Syrskyi would say, disruptive) approach to war, and Syrskyi appeared to prevail when Federov was sacked last week. •The decision to fire Federov proved deeply unpopular with Ukrainians who credit his drone program with turning the tide of the war in Ukraine's favor. Tens of thousands turned out for rare street protests calling for Federov's reinstatement and Syrskyi's removal, with slogans like "Fedorov is innovation, old grandpas are degeneration." •They got their wish regarding Syrskyi's removal, but betting markets are placing only a 45% (but rising) chance on Federov being reinstated this week. Federov clashed with other members of the old guard besides Syrskyi, and reinstating him would build resentment among Syrskyi's supporters. •That may be a price Pres. Zelensky is willing to pay to continue the momentum that Federov's drones won for Ukraine. Zelensky appointed a Federov ally as Syrskyi's replacement and promised to reinstate Federov in a "prominent position." Federov has said he wouldn't settle for any position ranking lower than his previous post. SAUDI ARABIA •The U.S. plans to announce a deal to allow Saudi Arabia to build a civilian nuclear program imminently. •That won't sit well with Israel, which is perpetually concerned about its Arab neighbors using a civilian nuclear program as a stepping stone to developing nuclear weapons. •Moreover, many in Israel see today's U.S.-Saudi deal as a snub to Israel, which - before the Oct. 7 attacks - reportedly hoped to trade its approval of a Saudi civilian nuclear program for Saudi diplomatic recognition. This deal forces Israel to concede its side of that trade for nothing in return. INDIA •India's youth-led protests for education reform risk spilling over into a broader movement criticizing Prime Minister Modi's government for its treatment of demonstrators. •Opposition leader Rahul Gandhi joined in the criticism of Modi's government, and was arrested after staging a sit-in outside Modi's house and calling for Modi's removal over police brutality against protesters. •Meanwhile, Modi's education minister - who was the main target of frustrated demonstrators - has barely addressed calls for exam reforms, saying only that he was "committed" to improvements. The protesters want him out. DRC •DRC's Pres. Tshisekedi acquiesced to the opposition's demands for an inclusive national dialogue under the oversight of the religious leaders who joined him in the room for his announcement. •Seemingly appeased, opposition parties duly cancelled the protest they'd scheduled for today. To me, it seems strange that Tshisekedi's critics would be satisfied with the mere promise of talks while their chief grievance - Tshisekedi's "constitutional coup" to remain in power beyond his term - is still moving forward. SOCIAL MEDIA •France became the first European country to pass a social media age ban, with a new law restricting youths under 15 from accessing social media - or using cell phones in school - after classes resume in the fall. Somewhat ironically, Pres. Macron announced the new social media ban on social media. •Australia was the first country to impose a social media ban for youth, and its ban hasn't been a resounding success. Early studies show that 85% of Australian teens under 16 were still using restricted social media platforms six months after they were ostensibly banned from them (the ban at least inspired some creativity: many teens reported using clever tricks like fake moustaches to skirt the ban). •France's ban seems equally unlikely to work.
Open source reportOff Leash update 8 July 2026 GAZA •Israel dismissed Hamas's offer to hand over its administrative responsibilities to the U.S.-backed National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG). It was largely a symbolic offer anyway - Israel hasn't even let the NCAG enter Gaza yet - and it fell far short of meeting Israel's demands for Hamas's full disarmament. SYRIA •Multiple bomb blasts injured at least 18 people in Damascus yesterday morning. •It was the second attack in the Syrian capital in two weeks - and the last thing Syria's interim president, Ahmed al Sharaa, needs when he's working hard to attract investors back to Syria. •The latest blasts went off near the hotel where French President Emmanuel Macron was staying, but Macron signaled confidence in his host by carrying on with his visit and meetings with al Sharaa as planned. •Macron and al Sharaa agreed to reinstate ambassadors, and Macron offered French help rebuilding Syria. IRAN •As anticipated, the U.S. struck military targets in Iran in retaliation for Iran's strikes on two commercial vessels that were circumventing Tehran's rules for transiting the Strait of Hormuz. •In addition to the punitive strikes, the U.S. revoked the waiver it had granted to allow Iran to resume U.S. dollar oil sales. •That waiver was a key concession in last month's ceasefire negotiations, so revoking it risks unraveling what little progress had been made towards a lasting peace. FRANCE •The Paris Appeals Court shortened Marine Le Pen's ban on seeking public office, enabling her to run for president next year. She promptly announced her campaign. •It will be her fourth attempt at running for president, and her odds of winning this time are the strongest they've ever been, thanks to surging support for her far-right National Rally (RN) party.
Open source reportOff Leash update 1 June 2026 COMING UP THIS WEEK •Ethiopia votes in parliamentary elections today. Abiy Ahmed's ruling Prosperity Party is sure to win, since large parts of the rebellious regions of Amhara and Tigray won't vote and Abiy's strongest rivals have been sidelined or jailed. •The Oslo Freedom Forum - Human Rights Foundation's annual summit - starts today. This year's speakers include Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado and actor Richard Gere, who played a victim of human rights abuses in Red Corner and Bent (and is also an established rights advocate off-screen). •Saturday is the 82nd anniversary of D-Day. •Sunday is a big day for elections: Armenia and Kosovo vote in parliamentary polls, and Peru votes in a run-off presidential election. In Peru, right-wing candidate Keiko Fujimori has a narrow polling lead over leftist candidate Roberto Sanchez. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,667/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $35,474/ton •Bitcoin: $72,614 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $13,636/ton •Ethereum: $1,982 •Gold: $4,510/toz •Lead: $2,016/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.33/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $90.40/barrel •Zinc: $3,540/ton COLOMBIA •Far-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella won the first round of Colombia's presidential election, but with less support than he needed to win the presidency outright. He'll face far-left candidate Iván Cepeda in a run-off on June 21. •President Petro - who backed Cepeda - rejected the result, citing (but not substantiating) irregularities. IRAN •Iran and the U.S. traded strikes over the weekend, but continued to exercise restraint: the U.S. said its strikes were in "self-defense," and Iran said it was merely retaliating against the U.S. strikes. •Several reports suggested that Pres. Trump sent a draft agreement back to Iran with some proposed changes to Iran's offer, but other accounts suggest there isn't much room to negotiate between the two sides' demands. •U.S. ships have reportedly quietly escorted around 70 commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz in the past three weeks. That's an approximate figure, since the U.S.-guided passages have been "dark," with transponders turned off, and probably hugging the Omani coast to stay as far as possible from Iranian fire. It corresponds to an average of about three vessels per day, which is far short of the 100 per day that transited the Strait pre-war. RUSSIA •The French Navy intercepted and boarded a sanctioned and false-flagged Russian oil tanker, the Tagor, in international waters about 400 nautical miles west of Brittany. •Pres. Macron justified the seizure in a post on X: "It is unacceptable for ships to circumvent international sanctions, violate the law of the sea, and fund the war that Russia has been waging against Ukraine for more than four years." It was the fourth time the French Navy has boarded a Russian "shadow fleet" tanker since Sep. 2025. •The Kremlin complained about the "illegal" seizure, which it said was "bordering on international piracy." VENEZUELA •The AP reported on emerging rifts in interim President Delcy Rodriguez's government, with longtime Maduro loyalists criticizing Rodriguez's reforms. They particularly object to her deportation of close Maduro ally Alex Saab to face trial in the U.S., and her authorization for U.S. forces to conduct training in Caracas. •Andrés Izarra - who served as communications minister under Hugo Chavez and tourism minister under Maduro before falling out with Maduro's cronies and fleeing into exile - said the divide isn't about Chavismo ideology, which Izarra thinks died with its founder in 2013. Rather, "since there is no ideological foundation, it is simply a struggle for power, money, positions, and survival."
Open source reportOff Leash update 6 April COMING UP THIS WEEK •Tomorrow at 8 pm ET is Pres. Trump's extended deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on its power plants and bridges. Iran's leaders have publicly dismissed the ultimatum, but Trump told Fox he thinks there's a "good chance" that private talks will reach a deal today to avoid escalation. •The first round of the golf Masters Tournament opens Thursday at the Augusta National Golf Club in Georgia. FOUR ELECTIONS NEXT WEEKEND •Djibouti votes for president on Friday. Longtime incumbent Ismail Omar Guelleh is sure to win, thanks to a late parliamentary decision scrapping an age limit of 75 that would've rendered him ineligible. Incidentally, that age limit was only imposed as part of a 2010 electoral "reform" that did away with term limits so he could run for a third term. This will be his sixth. •Hungary will hold a parliamentary election on Sunday. The Fidesz party's populist incumbent, Viktor Orban, is trailing in (independent) polls by 11 points to the center-right Tisza party's Peter Magyar, but government polls tell a different story, and analysts think Orban will pull out all the stops to extend his 16-year premiership. •Benin will vote for president on Sunday. The ruling party's candidate - current finance minister Romuald Wadagni - is heavily favored and the opposition's main candidate was barred from running. •Peru votes for president and parliament on Sunday. Two right-leaning candidates are leading the presidential polls, but - with a record 35 candidates contesting the race - it's likely to go to a runoff. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,470/ton •Antimony (global avg. from Antimony Global): $34,352/ton [Note: I'm switching to a new antimony benchmark that should be a better indicator of global average prices than the unconvincingly flat benchmark I was using for trioxide min. 99.65% fob China. Unlike exchange-traded commodities, antimony is usually traded through private over-the-counter contracts, which means prices are highly volatile and variable. This Antimony Global world average seems like the best big-picture benchmark out there.] •Bitcoin: $68,928 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $12,360/ton •Ethereum: $2,126 •Gold: $4,665/toz •Lead: $1,933/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.80/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $111.71/barrel •Zinc: $3,265/ton IRAN •Oil markets are volatile while waiting to see whether the U.S. and Iran will make a deal or - in the absence of a deal - if Pres. Trump will make good on his increasingly brash threats against Iran if it doesn't "open the fuckin' strait" by his deadline of 8 pm ET tomorrow. •Trump seemed emboldened to escalate his rhetoric by the success of a high-risk rescue mission to locate and extract a U.S. Air Force colonel whose F-15E Strike Eagle was shot down in southern Iran on Friday. •Iranian forces were desperately searching for the downed airman, too, and would've used him as negotiating leverage if they'd found him first. A CIA deception campaign helped ensure that didn't happen. •Separately, Egypt, Pakistan, and Turkey proposed a 45-day ceasefire plan to both Iran and the U.S. that includes a proposal for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Neither has responded yet, and it's unclear whether this is the deal that Trump gave a "good chance" of closing today. •Meanwhile, a likely Israeli strike killed Majid Khademi - the head of intelligence for Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) - earlier today. Khademi had only been in his post since last June, when his predecessor was killed in an Israeli strike. TRADE •Bloomberg reported that 13 ships have transited the Strait of Hormuz in the past week: 10 exiting the Persian Gulf and three entering. •That's the highest seven-day rolling total since the war began, and it included a French container ship and a Japanese-owned LNG tanker - both with no clear links to Iran. However, it's still just a trickle compared to the historical average of 138 transits per day. •Iran has reportedly set up a tolling system - which witty commentators dubbed an "ayatollah booth" - to charge some ships a rumored $2 million (in yuan) for safe passage. It has also restricted transits to a narrow northern passage, creating a natural limit on traffic too. •Meanwhile, European leaders are exploring options for safeguarding trade in the Strait. They're reportedly considering naval escorts (French Pres. Macron's preferred option), minesweeping, aerial interceptors, and - the bureaucrats' favorite - negotiations and economic measures. All have drawbacks, and none are sure to work. CHINA •Cheng Li-wun, who leads Taiwan's largest opposition party - the Kuomintang (KMT) - won her party's leadership in October after campaigning on closer ties with mainland China. That platform also won her an invitation from Xi Jinping to visit the mainland, which she's doing this week with a delegation that will stop in Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Beijing. •Xi's courtship of the KMT under Cheng is likely part of his push to reunify Taiwan. It would be easier if a pliant future KMT government simply agreed to reunification than if Beijing had to take the island by force. •To that end, Beijing also reached out to the current (more defiant) Taiwanese government in early March to offer energy guarantees if it agreed to reunify. Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party leaders quickly rejected the proposal, which was probably more of an optics play (to show Taiwan that its leaders refuse dialogue even at the expense of energy security) than a real offer. HUNGARY •Serbian officials discovered two backpacks containing explosives near a pipeline carrying Russian gas to Hungary. That appears to corroborate Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's claim that "Ukraine has been for years trying to cut off Europe from Russian energy." •However, Hungary's opposition leader, Peter Magyar - who's leading Orban in independent polls ahead of Sunday's election - was skeptical. Magyar accused Orban of staging a "false flag" operation to scare voters into rallying behind their strongman leader on Sunday.
Open source reportOff Leash update 6 October COMING UP THIS WEEK •Nobel Prizes will be announced from today to next Monday, with one of the six prizes announced each weekday. Today's announcement awarded the Nobel in Physiology or Medicine to three scientists who advanced our understanding of human immune systems. •Tomorrow is the second anniversary of Hamas's attack on Israel, which started the ongoing Gaza war. •The Seychelles concludes its three-day run-off presidential election on Saturday, and Cameroon votes for president on Sunday. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,710/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $124,275 - near the record high of $125,400 touched over the weekend in exuberance about last week's Federal Reserve rate cut •Cobalt: $35,000/ton •Copper: $10,716/ton •Ethereum: $4,573 •Gold: $3,934/toz •Lead: $2,020/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.44/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $61.44/barrel •Zinc: $3,035/ton GAZA •Hamas mostly agreed to the peace proposal Pres. Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu put forth last week - but with enough equivocation on key points (like a timeline for releasing hostages) to seemingly give Netanyahu cold feet. •For example, Hamas said it will need an unspecified amount of time to locate and excavate the remains of deceased hostages to return - which throws a wrench in Netanyahu's demand for an imminent deadline - and it demanded the release of some high-profile Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails in return. •Instead of accepting Hamas's positive response as a win, Netanyahu said the group's caveats constituted a rejection and said there was "nothing to celebrate" about the most promising ceasefire proposal yet. •Netanyahu certainly won't be celebrating the bind that Hamas's assent puts him in. As Eran Etzion - a former senior Israeli national security official under four prime ministers, including Netanyahu - put it, Netanyahu "will find himself with the entire world clapping [for a peace deal] and he needs to explain why he's against it." [Which is because he (rightly) fears that sealing a peace deal with Hamas will cause hardliners to end their support for his fragile premiership.] •Despite Netanyahu's dithering, delegates from Israel and Hamas will convene in Egypt today for mediated negotiations to finalize details of the proposed deal. Experts warn that this stage of negotiations may be the toughest: Israel and Hamas are still far apart on longtime sticking points, like the degree to which Hamas must disarm. •Several analysts pointed out that Israel's Sep. 9 strike on Hamas leaders in Qatar may have worked against Netanyahu and forced him into negotiations he'd hoped to avoid. It perhaps also catalyzed regional support for a peace deal by stirring up anger over a unilateral strike on a mediating country - and fear of further strikes on others in the region. JAPAN •Takaichi Sanae won the leadership of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in a run-off, making her likely to become Japan’s next prime minister - and its first female leader. Takaichi's LDP lacks a majority, so she still needs opposition backing to become prime minister, but analysts expect she'll prevail. •Analysts also expect her - once in office - to boost government spending and advocate loose monetary policy, so news of her election boosted the Nikkei 225 stock index 4% to an all-time high. FRANCE •Pres. Macron's seventh prime minister since 2022, Sébastien Lecornu, named his cabinet yesterday, and his picks - who were largely carryovers from the previous, ineffectual cabinet - fell flat. •Lecornu promptly resigned in frustration, blaming political "egos" and opposition parties with "partisan appetites." Macron must now try to find an eighth candidate to nominate - or give in to the right's calls for new elections, which would likely see Macron's centrist bloc lose seats to parties on both extremes. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 Sept HAMAS •An Israeli airstrike targeted Hamas's leadership-in-exile in Qatar while they were reportedly meeting to discuss a new, U.S.-backed ceasefire proposal. •Hamas said the strike missed its most senior targets but killed five lower-level members, including the son of the militia's senior negotiator, and a Qatari security officer. •The strike - thought to be Israel's first on Qatar - probably did more damage to U.S.-Israeli relations and Qatar's willingness to mediate ceasefire talks than it did to Hamas. •Pres. Trump said he was "very unhappy about every aspect of" the strike and specifically lamented Israel's unilateral action against Qatar, which Trump called "a Sovereign Nation and close Ally of the United States, that is working very hard and bravely taking risks with us to broker Peace." •Qatar's prime minister offered reassurances that his country would still continue its (thus far thankless and fruitless) role of mediating between Israel and Hamas, but seethed at Israel for violating Qatari sovereignty. He criticized Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu by name and called for "a response from the entire region to such barbaric actions." •Meanwhile, Hamas belatedly claimed responsibility for Monday's shooting that killed six in Jerusalem. •Netanyahu's office said the Jerusalem shooting was one of the factors that led Israel to target Hamas's leadership in Qatar, but it seems more likely that Israel's strike had been planned for months and was only waiting for an opportunity to target a gathered group of Hamas leaders. NEPAL •Nepal's "Gen Z" protesters were clearly not satisfied with the government's half-hearted (and mildly patronizing) concession to lift a nascent social media ban but ignore agitators' more significant calls for reform. •Nor did the demonstrators accept yesterday's resignations of the prime minister, KP Sharma Oli, and home minister as solutions. •Following the resignations, angry demonstrators set fire to the Supreme Court, the parliament building, the prime minister's residence (and residences of three former prime ministers), and the ruling Communist Party of Nepal's headquarters. •The military sent troops to restore order in Kathmandu - apparently unsuccessfully so far. The protests seem to be morphing into a broader, angrier expression of economic discontent and outrage over government corruption. FRANCE •Pres. Macron appointed his former defense minister and close ally, Sébastien Lecornu, to become his fifth prime minister. •Like his unsuccessful predecessor, François Bayrou, Lecornu is a centrist. He'll face the same resistance from both political extremes - the far left and the far right - that stalled Bayrou's budget proposal and ultimately ended his premiership. IRAN •Iran signed an agreement laying out "practical modalities" for International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) experts to resume inspections of Iran's nuclear sites, which were cut off in June when Israel - and then the U.S. - bombed the sites. •Iran is keen to cooperate with the IAEA to avoid a reinstatement of UN sanctions, which is a distinct possibility after France, Germany, and the UK notified the UN last week that Iran was in breach of its commitments to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal. •That notification started a 30-day clock for consultations in which both sides hope to avoid the drastic default option of a "snapback mechanism" that reimposes UN sanctions on Iran. •Iran's foreign minister noted that its agreement to resume IAEA inspections is contingent on reaching a deal to avoid reinstated sanctions, and - if sanctions are reimposed - "Iran will consider its cooperation with the agency to have come to an end." 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 5 Sept UKRAINE •France's Pres. Macron announced that 26 countries have formally agreed to be "present on the ground, in the sea or in the air” to guarantee Ukraine's security in a potential future peace deal with Russia. •Macron was intentionally vague about what that commitment really means because the group does not wish to "reveal the details of our organization to Russia." •Several signatories - including Germany, Italy, Poland, and the U.S. - have already rejected the idea of having troops on the ground in Ukraine, and so far only Estonia, France, and the UK have publicly entertained the idea of sending ground troops. The Kremlin obviously hates the idea. •Pres. Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, attended the summit Macron co-hosted with the UK's Prime Minister Starmer, and Trump apparently dialed in, too. Their participation reinforced U.S. backing for a European-led post-war plan. •Trump seemingly surprised Macron by taking a tough tone on Pres. Putin after the pair's fairly friendly meeting in Alaska last month. On yesterday's call, Trump urged the 30 heads of state in attendance not to buy Russian oil, and to redouble pressure on China to stop funding Russia's war effort. AFGHANISTAN •As the dust settles on Sunday's earthquake in northeast Afghanistan, reports are emerging that some (all-male) first responders abided by Taliban-directed cultural norms and refused to help women and girls trapped in the rubble, leaving them to wait for female rescuers. •As a result, women may represent a disproportionate share of the 2,200 killed and 3,600 injured in the disaster when the Taliban government eventually releases a gender breakdown of casualties. Or - if casualty statistics were a woman's job before the Taliban banned women from working - we may never see that breakdown at all. DRC •DRC declared a new Ebola outbreak in its south-central Kasai province, which borders Angola. •So far, health officials have counted 15 deaths and 28 suspected cases in the current outbreak, which is DRC's first since 2022 - and Kasai's first since 2008. •Kinshasa is well-versed in dealing with Ebola, and keeps an ample "stockpile of treatments" - including vaccines - on hand to deploy to new outbreaks like this. GAZA •Hamas said it was ready to release all 20 surviving hostages in exchange for an end to the war and Israel's full military withdrawal from Gaza, but Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu - who demands Hamas's full disarmament too - quickly rejected its latest offer as "spin" and "nothing new." •Israel still hasn't formally responded to the ceasefire proposal Hamas agreed to last week, but its mounting military offensive on Gaza City seems like a negative sign. VENEZUELA •The U.S. Dept. of Defense (which is soon to be renamed the "Department of War") reported that two Venezuelan military jets buzzed one of the U.S. Navy's guided missile destroyers operating in international waters off the coast of Venezuela in a "highly provocative" attempt "to interfere with our counter-narco-terror operations." •The Pentagon responded with a direct warning to Pres. Maduro's government: "The cartel running Venezuela is strongly advised not to pursue any further effort to obstruct, deter or interfere with counter-narcotics and counter-terror operations carried out by the US military." Editor note to Venezuelan military: Fuck Around and Find Out!
Open source reportOff Leash update 11 Aug COMING UP THIS WEEK •July U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data comes out tomorrow. Analyst consensus estimates predict a 2.8% year-over-year rise in overall prices due to the effect of new tariffs on imported goods. •Tomorrow is also the end of the 90-day tariff pause Pres. Trump agreed with China to temporarily reduce U.S. tariffs on most Chinese imports from a punishing 145% to a more tolerable 30%. Envoys have aligned on an extension in principle, but it still needs to be formalized. •Presidents Trump and Putin will meet in Alaska on Friday. More on that below. •Beijing hosts the inaugural World Humanoid Robot Games starting Friday. Over 500 humanoid "athletes" will compete in 538 events within 26 different disciplines, ranging from track and field to 5-a-side football (soccer). COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,609/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $120,596 •Cobalt: $33,335/ton •Copper: $9,762/ton •Ethereum: $4,198 •Gold: $3,363/toz - [Gold futures rose after the U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency unexpectedly ruled that one-kilo and 100-ounce gold bars would be subject to new import tariffs - including a 39% levy on imports from Switzerland, a top exporter of gold to the U.S. Markets then calmed after the White House said it will soon issue an executive order "clarifying misinformation" about tariffs on gold bars.] •Lead: $2,008/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.92/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $64.00/barrel •Zinc: $2,827/ton UKRAINE •Following U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff's meetings in Moscow last week, the White House announced that Presidents Trump and Putin will meet in person in Alaska this Friday (Aug. 15) to discuss ideas for ending the war in Ukraine. •Trump noted that a possible ceasefire proposal would involve "some swapping of territories," which analysts took to mean that Ukraine would be asked to cede some of its eastern regions to their Russian occupants. •Ukraine has repeatedly rejected the idea of a land swap, and Pres. Zelensky pre-emptively reiterated that position yesterday in advance of Friday's talks. Zelensky wasn't invited to Alaska on Friday, and Ukrainians are worried that Trump will make unwanted concessions to Putin on their behalf. •[Zelensky also pointed out the irony of the Putin-Trump meeting - in which Putin hopes to reestablish control over eastern Ukraine largely on the basis that it was once Russian territory - taking place in Alaska, which was also previously Russian territory. A cash-strapped Russia sold Alaska to the U.S. in 1867 for $7.2 million (about $154 million today), and thus far Putin hasn't mentioned wanting to take it back.] •Seven European leaders - including France's Pres. Macron and Germany's Chancellor Merz - penned a joint statement standing behind a sidelined Ukraine and declaring that "the path to peace in Ukraine cannot be decided without Ukraine." European foreign ministers will meet today to align their support for Ukraine ahead of Friday's summit excluding it. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 25 July GAZA •After weeks of consideration, Hamas submitted its response to Israel's latest 60-day ceasefire proposal. •Hamas's response reportedly sought changes to the proposed clauses on humanitarian aid flows, post-truce areas of control, and - most contentiously - guarantees regarding an end to the war. •Specifically, Hamas wants Israel to commit to fully withdrawing from Gaza after the war, while Israel refuses to withdraw with Hamas still in control of the territory. •The U.S. and Israel promptly rejected Hamas's response and withdrew their negotiating teams from Qatar, and U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff angrily complained about Hamas's "lack of desire to reach a ceasefire." •Despite the U.S. and Israeli reaction, Hamas seemed surprised at how its response was received, and its officials remained optimistic that truce talks will continue next week. We'll see. •Meanwhile, the World Food Program estimated that one-third of Gaza's population of two million is currently "not eating for multiple days in a row." •Israel and the U.S. State Department blame Hamas for that: they - and the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation they back - allege that Hamas is systematically stealing humanitarian aid before it reaches hungry Gazans. (A new USAID study of 156 aid distribution incidents in June refutes this but acknowledges that an unacceptable share of aid falls through the cracks.) PALESTINIAN STATEHOOD •In a letter to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, Pres. Macron confirmed that France plans to recognize Palestinian statehood at this year's UN General Assembly in September, and will encourage its allies to do the same. •While most UN member states (147 of 193) recognize Palestine, France - which has Europe's largest Jewish and Muslim communities - would be the first G7 country to do so. •Israeli officials sharply criticized the long-expected announcement. Prime Minister Netanyahu said French recognition "rewards terror and risks creating another Iranian proxy," and Defense Minister Katz called it "a disgrace and a surrender to terrorism." VENEZUELA •Reuters reported that the U.S. is preparing a new authorization allowing Chevron to resume operations in Venezuela under stricter limitations than those defined in previous operating licenses that were cancelled in February. •Similar rights could then be extended to European oil companies - specifically, Italy's Eni and Spain's Repsol - under subsequent authorizations. •The newly tightened limitations would aim to force companies to swap certain imported supplies - rather than pay cash - for Venezuelan oil, thus further severing the Maduro regime's cash flow from oil sales. IRAN •Iran said it would allow inspectors from the UN's nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), to visit for the strictly limited purpose of reestablishing a working relationship between the IAEA and Iran. The visiting inspectors would not be allowed access to Iran's nuclear sites.
Open source reportOff Leash update 12 June CHINA •Following two days of trade talks in London, the U.S. and China agreed on a framework for a longer-term detente in their trade war that would extend the temporary reciprocal tariff reprieve agreed last month. •The sticking point that kept last month's trade talks from reaching a lasting truce was China's refusal to lift export controls on rare earth minerals. U.S. officials seem content that the new framework resolves that impasse, but it's unclear whether it also addresses reciprocal non-tariff measures the U.S. imposed in response (such as curbs on Chinese student enrollment in U.S. universities). •The framework that came out of this week's summit will now be escalated to Presidents Trump and Xi for their approval. ECONOMY •A possible imminent U.S.-China trade deal wasn't factored into the World Bank's revised economic forecast released yesterday. That forecast predicted a decline in global economic growth from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.3% in 2025 - and a decline in U.S. economic growth forecast from 2.8% to 1.4% - due to trade wars like the one the U.S.-China framework aims to resolve. DRC •A new draft of a U.S. proposal for a Rwanda-DRC peace deal reportedly demands that Rwanda fully withdraw its troops from eastern DRC as a precondition for a ceasefire. •Rwanda's Pres. Kagame implausibly denies sending troops into DRC, but will nonetheless probably resist orders to withdraw them because he maintains they're necessary to counter vague threats from Hutu militias. SUDAN •Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) claimed it captured the strategic "triangle" region bordering Egypt and Libya. •The military - which has been fighting the RSF since April 2023 - seemed to corroborate the RSF's claim when it acknowledged that it retreated from the triangle region "as part of defensive arrangements to repel aggression." •Unverified local reports claimed that fighters loyal to Libya's eastern commander, Khalifa Haftar, crossed the border to help the RSF capture the triangle region. If confirmed, it would be the first known instance of Libyan meddling in Sudan's civil war. PAKISTAN •Likely jolted by last month's dust-up with India, Pakistan's military announced plans to boost its military spending by 20% to $9 billion for the fiscal year starting July 1. •That's a sharp increase - especially in the context of a 7% decrease in overall government spending for the next fiscal year. Parliament must still approve the budget. GAZA •In a letter to France's Pres. Macron and Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince MBS, Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas condemned Hamas's Oct. 7 attacks and called on Hamas to cede control of Gaza and release all hostages. •Abbas also promised various reforms to the PA, including new presidential elections to be held within a year. He has made and broken the same promise several times in the 29 years since the last presidential poll. •Abbas is hoping to meet Macron's conditions for recognizing Palestinian statehood as early as next week, and wants to position his PA to lead a potential new Palestinian nation. •Israel vehemently opposes Palestinian statehood, and has grown increasingly irritated with France for entertaining the idea. Prime Minister Netanyahu recently accused Pres. Macron of leading "a crusade against the Jewish state" by supporting Palestinian statehood. •Separately, five countries - Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, and the UK - slapped sanctions on two far-right Israeli ministers - interior minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and finance minister Bezalel Smotrich - for stoking settler violence in the West Bank and encouraging the expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 30 April 2025 INDIA AND PAKISTAN •Pakistan's Information Minister, Attaullah Tarar, claimed to have "credible intelligence" that India is planning a military strike on Pakistan in the next 24-36 hours (from ~10 pm local time last night) in retaliation for what Tarar called India's "baseless and concocted allegations" that Pakistan supported the separatist militants who attacked a civilian train in Pahalgam, Kashmir last week. [Pakistan vehemently denies funding or encouraging militants in Kashmir.] •Tarar's claim is consistent with other media reports that India's Prime Minister Modi has been lobbying world leaders by phone and diplomats in person to make the case for striking Pakistan, and a targeted strike could come soon. •India carried out similar targeted strikes on Pakistani militants after deadly attacks on India in 2016 and 2019. Both previous Indian retaliatory strikes were limited in scope to precisely target "militant launch pads" and training camps connected to the preceding terrorist attacks. •Any imminent Indian military strike would likely follow the same pattern and be limited to targeting the safe havens and arsenals used by militants responsible for the Pahalgam attacks. Neither India nor Pakistan wants a broader war with its nuclear-armed archrival right now. VENEZUELA •Human Rights Watch (HRW) released a damning 104-page report yesterday condemning Pres. Maduro's crackdown on the opposition after he stole the July 2024 election. •The report's title offers a preview of its findings: "Punished for Seeking Change: Killings, Enforced Disappearances, and Arbitrary Detention Following Venezuela’s 2024 Election." •Inside the report, HRW cited credible reports that at least 25 protesters were killed in the immediate aftermath of the election, and over 2,000 people were detained for demonstrating or supporting the opposition. Those are both probably drastic underestimates of the true totals. UKRAINE •Pres. Zelensky said that Ukraine has agreed - at U.S. insistence - to an immediate and unconditional 30-day ceasefire, but complained that Russia has yet to commit to it - and instead launched over 100 drone attacks on Ukraine overnight. NORTH KOREA •South Korean intelligence reported that around 600 North Koreans have been killed fighting against Ukraine in Kursk. •Earlier South Korean reports estimated 4,700 total North Korean casualties (killed or injured) in Kursk, so a combination of the two figures suggests 4,100 of the casualties were injured and 600 were killed in action. RUSSIA •France's cybersecurity agency accused Russia's military intelligence organization, GRU, of staging almost 10 years of cyberattacks against French defense and intelligence targets. France's Foreign Ministry pounced on the accusation and said Russia should be barred from the UN Security Council for such "destabilizing activities." •Pres. Macron has been explicit about his desire to pressure Pres. Putin into agreeing to a ceasefire in Ukraine, and these new charges are probably part of Macron's pressure campaign.
Open source reportOff Leash update 6 March UKRAINE AND EUROPE •Days after suspending U.S. military support for Ukraine, the U.S. has stopped sharing intelligence - including targeting information - with Ukraine too. •Ukraine has access to other sources of intelligence and the U.S. provides only 20% of its military support, so the U.S. suspensions won't immediately turn the tide of the war. A Ukrainian lawmaker told RBC-Ukraine that his military "has a safety margin of about six months even without systematic assistance from the United States, but it will be much more difficult, of course." •U.S. officials told the NYT that the suspensions are intended to last for just a week or two to nudge Pres. Zelensky to - as the NYT Kyiv bureau chief put it - "agree to [Pres. Trump's ceasefire] terms in advance, without knowing what they are." •Meanwhile, France's Pres. Macron continues to step up to fill the leadership vacuum left behind as the U.S. retreats from Ukraine. Macron said yesterday that France is open to the idea of extending the protection of its nuclear umbrella to its European allies. [France and the UK are the only European countries with nukes.] GAZA •Reuters reported that U.S. hostage envoy Adam Boehler met directly with Hamas representatives in Qatar in recent weeks to demand the release of the only surviving Israeli-American hostage and the return of the remains of four other dual citizen hostages who died in captivity. •Axios reported separately that Boehler's discussions with Hamas were mainly focused on securing the release of U.S. citizen hostages - which is well within Boehler's purview as a hostage envoy - but also touched on the potential for a long-term truce, which Hamas would want to secure in exchange for freeing the hostages. •It was believed to be the first time U.S. officials have directly engaged with Hamas, which the U.S. designated as a terrorist organization in 1997. •Pres. Trump then doubled down on Boehler's demands with a Truth Social post directed at Hamas, ordering it to "release all of the hostages now, not later, and immediately return all of the dead bodies of the people you murdered, or it is OVER for you." MOZAMBIQUE •Yesterday, Mozambique's Pres. Chapo signed an agreement with rival political parties ending their challenge against his election victory and quelling the violent protests resulting from it. •However, he excluded his chief rival, opposition leader Venâncio Mondlane, from the process. Mondlane called his supporters to the streets to protest against Chapo and his government in response, and police injured at least 16 protesters with live fire. So much for quelling violent protests. SOUTH SUDAN •South Sudan's police arrested oil minister Puot Kang Chol and the opposition SPLM-IO's military leader, Gen. Gabriel Doup Lam, this week. Both Chol and Lam are allies of Vice Pres. Machar, whose long-standing feud with Pres. Kiir has re-escalated in recent months. •The BBC reported that Kiir has ordered the arrest of all senior military commanders allied with Machar, and watchers are concerned that Kiir and Machar will tear up their fragile 2018 peace deal and resume civil war. TRADE •Pres. Trump agreed to a one-month reprieve on tariffs on auto imports from Canada and Mexico to the U.S. after a call with auto executives on Tuesday. In return, GM, Ford, and Stellantis agreed to move more of their production to the U.S.
Open source reportOff Leash update 25 Feb Ukraine and Russia •After hosting France's Pres. Macron at the White House, Pres. Trump told reporters that the war in Ukraine - which started three years ago yesterday - could be over "within weeks." •Trump added that he may visit Moscow in the coming months to advance peace talks with Pres. Putin - to the chagrin of Pres. Zelensky and EU leaders, who bemoan being left out of bilateral U.S.-Russia talks. •Meanwhile at the UN, the U.S. voted against a non-binding European resolution condemning Russia for the war and calling on it to withdraw immediately from Ukraine. The U.S. instead introduced its own, softer resolution that still called for a quick end to the war, but - in the NYT's reading - "essentially sid[ed] with Moscow over longtime allies." •Separately, China's Pres. Xi and Russia's Pres. Putin spoke by video call yesterday. After the call, Xi gushed that China and Russia are "true friends who have been through thick and thin together," which led analysts to suggest that the point of the call was to disprove speculation that Putin's rapprochement with Trump comes at the cost of weakening Russia's bond with China. Gaza •The first phase of the Gaza ceasefire deal ends Sunday, and Israel and Hamas have reportedly not yet started negotiating the second phase. Hamas now says it will only return to negotiations if Israel releases the 620 Palestinian prisoners it was due to release over the weekend. DRC •DRC surprised the cobalt market with a new four-month ban on exports of the metal - 77% of which is produced in DRC (mainly in the southern copper belt - this is unrelated to the insecurity plaguing the east). •The export ban is intended to buoy cobalt prices - which have fallen by about 25% in the past year because of declining demand amidst a supply glut - but it won't be a long-term fix for the oversupplied cobalt market. That's because almost all of DRC's cobalt is produced as a byproduct of copper or nickel production, which will continue apace. The resulting cobalt byproduct will just be stockpiled in DRC, and - as soon as the export ban is lifted - it will flood the market, crashing prices again. •Some analysts are suggesting the export ban could harm DRC's long-term production potential because it could scare shocked buyers into sourcing from alternate producers with greater regulatory transparency - like Indonesia. •Meanwhile, the situation in the east continues to devolve, and the International Rescue Committee reports that at least 40,000 Congolese have fled to Burundi. Prime Minister Judith Suminwa Tuluka told the UN Human Rights Council that 7,000 people have died in recent weeks - roughly double the UN's earlier estimate. •DRC closed its airspace to Rwandan aircraft - though I'm not sure what good that decree will do when Rwanda already controls eastern DRC's two main airports. Syria •Syria's new leaders have been courting international partners in an effort to win allies and relief from sanctions imposed on the deposed Assad regime. Their efforts are paying off...but slowly. •Yesterday, EU foreign ministers agreed to ease restrictions on the central bank and energy sectors, lift asset freezes for five banks, suspend sanctions on the transport sector, and indefinitely extend an exemption allowing humanitarian aid delivery. •The EU's relief measures will help, but Syria still needs far more help to rebuild. U.S. sanctions remain in place, and Syria's central bank remains barred from the global SWIFT network. Venezuela •Another opposition activist, Reinaldo Araujo, died in Venezuelan jail from chronic health problems that deteriorated since his arrest on Jan. 9. Opposition-linked NGOs estimate 20 political prisoners have now died in detention. •Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado blamed Pres. Maduro's regime for Araujo's death and renewed her call on Maduro to free all political prisoners. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash Update 8 July Coming Up This Week •India's PM Modi will meet Pres. Putin in Moscow today. It will be Modi's first visit to Russia since Russia invaded Ukraine - and his first trip abroad since he was reelected. He hopes to secure the release of Indian nationals who India says were "duped" into serving in the Russian army. •NATO meets for its 75th anniversary summit in Washington tomorrow through Thursday. •Sunday is a big day in sports: the UEFA 2024 final, the Copa America final, and the men's Wimbledon final all take place on the same day. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,535/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $22,700/ton •Cobalt: $27.150/ton •Copper: $9,944/ton •Gold: $2,378/toz •Lead: $2,237/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.32/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $82.69/barrel •Zinc: $3,001/ton Iran •Reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian won Iran's runoff presidential election. •Pezeshkian seeks warmer relations with the West via experienced diplomats who he hopes will negotiate a softening of sanctions. •However, Iran's presidency has little power to effect real change, and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei - who truly calls the shots - doesn't want change. Analysts say he'll block Pezeshkian's efforts to warm up to the West. •Turnout was around 50% - much higher than the record low 40% logged in the first round. Israel and Gaza •Thousands of Israelis staged anti-government protests across the country yesterday. Demonstrators want fresh elections as well as a ceasefire deal with Hamas to free Israeli hostages. •There's a sliver of a chance that they'll get their wish on the ceasefire deal: Hamas finally dropped its opposition to one of Israel's key demands and indicated that it could agree to release some hostages during an initial six-week ceasefire before further peace talks hash out the long-run plan. •There are still some big obstacles blocking a final agreement, but this removes one of them. That said, Hamas still wants assurances that Israel will commit to continue peace talks after the first round of hostages are released - and Israel has already said it can't agree to that (it wants the option to resume fighting if necessary). •Meanwhile, an Israel strike killed Ehab Al-Ghussein, a senior Hamas administrator, in a Gaza City school where he was sheltering with civilians. Ukraine and Russia •Hungary's Viktor Orban retroactively announced that he had met with Russia's Pres. Putin in Moscow and China's Pres. Xi in Beijing following his surprise talks with Ukraine's Pres. Zelensky in Kyiv. •Orban portrayed his haphazard outreach as a victory for diplomacy: "Hungary is slowly becoming the only country in Europe that can speak to everyone." •Others would say Hungary is the only country in Europe still willing to talk to Putin. NATO SecGen Jens Stoltenberg sought to downplay Orban's visit to Moscow as unrepresentative of NATO's position on Russia: "different NATO allies interact with Moscow in different ways." China •China sailed its largest coast guard vessel into the Philippines' exclusive economic zone and anchored it there, leading the Philippines to (fairly) accuse it of "intimidation." Afghanistan •The Taliban shifted some senior government officials around: the acting Central Bank (Da Afghanistan Bank) head, Hedayatullah Badri, is now Minister of Mines and Petroleum, replacing Shahabuddin Delawar, who will become the acting head of the Afghan Red Crescent Society. Other News •France's legislative elections yesterday resulted in a hung parliament - and a clear loss for Pres. Macron, whose party and coalition lost a third of its seats to both the far-left and the far-right.
Open source reportOff Leash update May 7 Gaza •Hamas said it has accepted the terms of a ceasefire proposal from Egypt and Hamas that could stop the fighting - at least temporarily. •The terms of the proposal aren't yet public, but the NYT reported that experts say it has only "minor word changes" from the one Israel recently offered. However, other reports suggest PM Netanyahu has already rejected the proposal Hamas accepted as "far from Israel's basic requirements." •The U.S. is pushing Israel to consider the proposal on the table and hold off on sending ground troops into Rafah, but the clock is winding down: Israel's War Cabinet approved the ground invasion of Rafah unanimously, and prospects for a deal will dim after that begins, since Hamas has threatened to walk away from talks once it starts. •Families of the remaining hostages are also pleading with Israel to accept a deal instead of invading Rafah: some of them are blocking highways in Ayalon to make their demands heard. •Separately, Israeli police raided the local offices of Al Jazeera after Israel's parliament ordered the network to cease operations in the country on national security grounds. Al Jazeera defiantly called the raid a "criminal action" and continued to criticize Israel's war in Gaza. North Korea •The Economist reported that North Koreans were asked to swear their loyalty to Kim Jong Un during a ceremony on Jan. 8 celebrating Kim's 40th birthday. Analysts think the loyalty oaths were designed to solidify Kim's grip on power by boosting his cult of popularity. Ukraine and Russia •Russia said it would hold new military exercises near Ukraine to practice for the possible future use of "tactical" battlefield nuclear weapons. •Pres. Putin has consistently denied - including as recently as March - that he's ever considered using tactical nukes, so these exercises seem like provocative bluster in reaction to recent escalating rhetoric from Western leaders like France's Pres. Macron, who refused to rule out sending French troops to Ukraine (though he most likely would never do so), and top UK diplomat David Cameron, who said Ukraine is free to use weapons from the UK to strike targets inside Russia. •Separately, Russia detained a U.S. Army soldier in Vladivostok on charges of criminal misconduct. U.S. military personnel are strongly discouraged against travel to Russia because of the risk of detentions like this. Libya •Royal Jordanian and Qatar Airways will resume flights to Libya's Tripoli International Airport this month after a long hiatus, and Saudi Airlines is in talks to start servicing Tripoli routes, too. That seems like a good sign of stabilization in Libya - though it took longer than planned to revitalize Tripoli's airport due to cost overruns.
Open source reportOff Leash update 17 April Middle East •Israel's war cabinet met for a second time yesterday, but adjourned without finalizing a plan to respond to Iran's drone and missile attack over the weekend - and postponed a third meeting that was set for today. The head of its army pledged Iran's attack would "be met with a response," though. •Israel has several options on the table, but all come with risks. The war cabinet is reportedly considering another strike in a third country (like the one in Damascus that started this tit-for-tat), a cyberstrike on Iranian infrastructure, and a strike on a symbolic target in Iran. The Economist pointed out Israel is unlikely to retaliate this week ahead of the Passover holiday next week. •The U.S. and EU are working on fresh sanctions on Iran's missile and drone programs, and both Western countries and Arab states are encouraging Israel to respond by "isolating Iran" (in Pres. Macron's words) instead of striking it back - though that idea is unpalatable in Israel, where hardliners are pushing for harsher revenge. •Separately, both Hezbollah and the Israeli army confirmed that an Israeli drone strike killed another Hezbollah commander in southern Lebanon, and Hezbollah drones targeted an Iron Dome battery in northern Israel, causing three minor injuries. China •New data showed that China's real GDP grew 1.6% in Q1 2024 vs. Q4 2023, and 5.3% year on year - thanks in part to a new focus on exporting goods to make up for weak domestic spending. That surge in cheap Chinese exports is putting pressure on local manufacturers in the countries receiving them, causing leaders like Germany's Chancellor Scholz to complain to Chinese officials about the flood of exports. •China's nominal GDP grew by less than its real GDP - 4.2% year on year - indicating that prices shrank 1.1%. China hasn't seen deflation since 1999, and economists say its emergence now is evidence of a lopsided economic recovery based on exports rather than internal growth. •A Chinese marathoner, He Jie, won Sunday's Beijing Half Marathon...but only after three African runners who were leading the race waved him through right before the finish line and then finished behind him in a three-way tie for second. Race organizers are investigating the peculiar camaraderie. Venezuela •Venezuela arrested two more senior energy officials as part of an investigation into billions of dollars that went missing in a crypto fraud at state oil company PDVSA. The arrest of these two vice ministers follows last week's arrest of former oil minister - and close Maduro ally - Tarek el Aissami. •Separately, Venezuela also arrested a well-known activist accused of plotting to assassinate Pres. Maduro. Caracas has been arresting activists and dissidents for political reasons ahead of July's election, so it's not clear whether there was actually an assassination attempt involved - this could have been another politically-motivated arrest. Other News •Dubai got two years' worth of rain - 6.3" or 16 cm - in 24 hours between Monday night and last night, leading to flooding and flight diversions. It's illegal to criticize the government in the UAE, so locals who told the AP of "absolute carnage" in the floods did so anonymously.
Open source report