Gaza diplomacy advances amid political transitions in Japan and France

Off Leash update 6 October

COMING UP THIS WEEK •Nobel Prizes will be announced from today to next Monday, with one of the six prizes announced each weekday. Today's announcement awarded the Nobel in Physiology or Medicine to three scientists who advanced our understanding of human immune systems. •Tomorrow is the second anniversary of Hamas's attack on Israel, which started the ongoing Gaza war. •The Seychelles concludes its three-day run-off presidential election on Saturday, and Cameroon votes for president on Sunday.

COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,710/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $124,275 - near the record high of $125,400 touched over the weekend in exuberance about last week's Federal Reserve rate cut •Cobalt: $35,000/ton •Copper: $10,716/ton •Ethereum: $4,573 •Gold: $3,934/toz •Lead: $2,020/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.44/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $61.44/barrel •Zinc: $3,035/ton

GAZA •Hamas mostly agreed to the peace proposal Pres. Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu put forth last week - but with enough equivocation on key points (like a timeline for releasing hostages) to seemingly give Netanyahu cold feet. •For example, Hamas said it will need an unspecified amount of time to locate and excavate the remains of deceased hostages to return - which throws a wrench in Netanyahu's demand for an imminent deadline - and it demanded the release of some high-profile Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails in return. •Instead of accepting Hamas's positive response as a win, Netanyahu said the group's caveats constituted a rejection and said there was "nothing to celebrate" about the most promising ceasefire proposal yet. •Netanyahu certainly won't be celebrating the bind that Hamas's assent puts him in. As Eran Etzion - a former senior Israeli national security official under four prime ministers, including Netanyahu - put it, Netanyahu "will find himself with the entire world clapping [for a peace deal] and he needs to explain why he's against it." [Which is because he (rightly) fears that sealing a peace deal with Hamas will cause hardliners to end their support for his fragile premiership.] •Despite Netanyahu's dithering, delegates from Israel and Hamas will convene in Egypt today for mediated negotiations to finalize details of the proposed deal. Experts warn that this stage of negotiations may be the toughest: Israel and Hamas are still far apart on longtime sticking points, like the degree to which Hamas must disarm. •Several analysts pointed out that Israel's Sep. 9 strike on Hamas leaders in Qatar may have worked against Netanyahu and forced him into negotiations he'd hoped to avoid. It perhaps also catalyzed regional support for a peace deal by stirring up anger over a unilateral strike on a mediating country - and fear of further strikes on others in the region.

JAPAN •Takaichi Sanae won the leadership of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in a run-off, making her likely to become Japan’s next prime minister - and its first female leader. Takaichi's LDP lacks a majority, so she still needs opposition backing to become prime minister, but analysts expect she'll prevail. •Analysts also expect her - once in office - to boost government spending and advocate loose monetary policy, so news of her election boosted the Nikkei 225 stock index 4% to an all-time high.

FRANCE •Pres. Macron's seventh prime minister since 2022, Sébastien Lecornu, named his cabinet yesterday, and his picks - who were largely carryovers from the previous, ineffectual cabinet - fell flat. •Lecornu promptly resigned in frustration, blaming political "egos" and opposition parties with "partisan appetites." Macron must now try to find an eighth candidate to nominate - or give in to the right's calls for new elections, which would likely see Macron's centrist bloc lose seats to parties on both extremes.

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