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93 direct mentions across 93 briefings, with 134 linked developments.
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Israel rejected Hamas’s offer to transfer its administrative responsibilities to the U.S.-backed National Committee for the Administration of Gaza. It adds that Israel had not allowed the committee to enter Gaza and characterizes the offer as symbolic and insufficient to meet Israel’s demand for Hamas’s full disarmament.
Unverified development · updated through
Israel rejected Hamas’s offer to transfer its administrative responsibilities to the U.S.-backed National Committee for the Administration of Gaza. It adds that Israel had not allowed the committee to enter Gaza and characterizes the offer as symbolic and insufficient to meet Israel’s demand for Hamas’s full disarmament.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Hamas dossier
111 mapped developments across 10 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Cairo
Israel and Hamas resumed negotiations in Cairo concerning a ceasefire in Gaza.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 8 July 2026 GAZA •Israel dismissed Hamas's offer to hand over its administrative responsibilities to the U.S.-backed National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG). It was largely a symbolic offer anyway - Israel hasn't even let the NCAG enter Gaza yet - and it fell far short of meeting Israel's demands for Hamas's full disarmament. SYRIA •Multiple bomb blasts injured at least 18 people in Damascus yesterday morning. •It was the second attack in the Syrian capital in two weeks - and the last thing Syria's interim president, Ahmed al Sharaa, needs when he's working hard to attract investors back to Syria. •The latest blasts went off near the hotel where French President Emmanuel Macron was staying, but Macron signaled confidence in his host by carrying on with his visit and meetings with al Sharaa as planned. •Macron and al Sharaa agreed to reinstate ambassadors, and Macron offered French help rebuilding Syria. IRAN •As anticipated, the U.S. struck military targets in Iran in retaliation for Iran's strikes on two commercial vessels that were circumventing Tehran's rules for transiting the Strait of Hormuz. •In addition to the punitive strikes, the U.S. revoked the waiver it had granted to allow Iran to resume U.S. dollar oil sales. •That waiver was a key concession in last month's ceasefire negotiations, so revoking it risks unraveling what little progress had been made towards a lasting peace. FRANCE •The Paris Appeals Court shortened Marine Le Pen's ban on seeking public office, enabling her to run for president next year. She promptly announced her campaign. •It will be her fourth attempt at running for president, and her odds of winning this time are the strongest they've ever been, thanks to surging support for her far-right National Rally (RN) party.
Open source reportOff Leash update 25 June 2026 VENEZUELA •Two strong "doublet" earthquakes struck Venezuela yesterday, killing at least 32 and injuring more than 700. •USGS models suggest casualties will rise far higher and could well exceed 10,000 or more. The quake struck on a public holiday when many Venezuelans were at home, and many Venezuelan homes are shoddily built and prone to collapse. Even Caracas's main airport - which was not shoddily built - sustained such extensive damage that it was forced to close. •Interim President Delcy Rodriguez declared a state of emergency and called on medical workers to care for survivors. LEBANON •Israel said its forces have trapped dozens of Hezbollah militants inside an encircled tunnel complex under the Ali al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon. The militants are staying put inside: they're likely hoping that U.S. pressure will force Israel to stand down before they run out of food and water underground. •The NYT pointed out similarities to a standoff between Israeli forces and Hamas militants in Gaza last year, in which hundreds of Hamas fighters were trapped in tunnels under Israeli-controlled terrain as a ceasefire came into effect. Israel denied the militants' request for safe passage and demanded their unconditional surrender instead. Many surrendered or were killed. •Meanwhile, Israel and Lebanon held a fifth round of U.S.-mediated ambassador-level talks in Washington, DC. They reportedly discussed a U.S.-backed "pilot" in which Israel would cede some of the southern Lebanese territory it occupied during its war with Hezbollah to pre-vetted Lebanese army units to control. •The U.S. is backing the idea because it would help satisfy a condition of the U.S.-Iran MoU requiring Israel to withdraw from Lebanon. [However, the plan would let Israel keep a military presence in a border buffer zone, and Iran might consider that a violation of its conditions.] CHINA •China's newest and largest aircraft carrier, the Fujian, sailed through the Taiwan Strait on Tuesday as a warning to the self-governing island, which had just launched a five-day exercise to practice defense against a Chinese invasion. •The provocative transit drew rebuke not only from Taiwan, but also from France, Germany, and the UK, who united to issue a rare joint statement condemning Chinese activity around Taiwan. [The statement was referring to Chinese activity around Taiwan in general and didn't specifically mention the Fujian's transit the day before.] •Separately, LineShine, a Chinese supercomputer, was anointed the world's most powerful supercomputer in the biannual TOP500 ranking, displacing HP's El Capitan. LineShine also had the greatest power consumption of the 500 supercomputers in the ranking.
Open source reportOff Leash update 29 May 2026 IRAN •The U.S. and Iran have reportedly reached a deal to extend the current temporary ceasefire for 60 days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz while they negotiate the thornier nuclear issues they still disagree on. •Pres. Trump has yet to sign off on the new framework, but wrote on Truth Social that he's close to making a "final determination" on it. Vice Pres. Vance said Trump still had issues with "a couple of language points" in the new draft that were holding up his decision. •In fact, it sounds like they're still far apart on several basic aspects of the proposed deal. For one, Trump said the deal calls for Iran to "immediately open" the Strait of Hormuz to unrestricted traffic, while Iranian state media insisted that "no such clause in the text of the agreement." •Another discrepancy is over money. Trump asserted that "No money will be exchanged, until further notice," while Iranian state media said "the most important part of the agreement” is “the immediate payment of $12 billion of Iran’s frozen assets." ISRAEL •Iran also insists that the temporary ceasefire currently in place covers the wars that Iranian proxies - Hezbollah and Hamas - are fighting with Israel. •Israel disagrees, but the fact that it has escalated its offensive strikes in recent weeks as Iran and the U.S. got closer to a deal suggests Prime Minister Netanyahu may think Pres. Trump may ask him to restrain his forces on other fronts to preserve a fragile truce with Iran. •Israel's escalation continued yesterday and today. The Israeli military struck targets in southern Beirut for the first time in weeks, and Netanyahu also ordered his military to seize at least 70% of Gaza - despite the fact that doing so would violate the October ceasefire agreement, in which Israel agreed to limit its occupation of the territory to just over half its area. RUSSIA •A drone - allegedly Russian - struck an apartment building in Galati, Romania, injuring two people. •European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen complained that the incursion "crossed yet another line," and Romania's Foreign Minister mused about invoking NATO's Article 4, which opens a discussion about threats to a NATO member's security. Article 4 is a step below Article 5, which requires all NATO members to come to the defense of any member under attack.
Open source reportOff Leash update 12 May IRAN •Pres. Trump raised concerns about renewed hostilities with Iran when he said the current, temporary ceasefire is on "massive life support" with a "1 percent chance" of survival and called Iran's latest counterproposal "garbage." •Iranian state media reported that the counterproposal Trump rejected called for the U.S. to pay war reparations, end sanctions on Iran, and recognize Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. It also reportedly postponed nuclear negotiations for "when the time is right." UKRAINE •Ukraine's anti-corruption authorities formally notified Pres. Zelensky's former chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, that he's a suspect in their widening investigation into corruption in the senior ranks of Zelensky's government. •Yermak resigned in November after investigators began looking into allegations of his involvement in a scheme to embezzle $100 million from the state nuclear company. •Investigators now allege that Yermak and two other disgraced former officials sought to use 460 million hryvnia ($10.5 million) of their tainted proceeds to build themselves neighboring luxury homes. •Zelensky has sought to distance himself from the disgraced officials and the investigation, and he won't be pleased to see the inquiry - dubbed Operation Midas - back in the headlines. •Separately, the European Union slapped sanctions on 16 more officials and seven more organizations accused of facilitating Russia's abduction of Ukrainian children. •Ukrainian authorities estimate that Russia has deported 20,500 Ukrainian children since the war began in 2022; only around 2,000 have been returned. UK •British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is stubbornly defying intensifying calls - including dozens from within his own Labour party - to step down. •A minister and several aides have already quit Starmer's government in protest at his insistence on staying on until a formal challenger emerges. That may not take long: other Labour lawmakers are organizing a challenge to unseat him. SOUTH AFRICA •South Africa's Parliament said it would comply with a recent Constitutional Court decision and establish an impeachment committee to re-investigate old misconduct allegations against President Cyril Ramaphosa. •The allegations center on a 2020 scandal in which thieves discovered $580,000 (and perhaps up to $4 million) in foreign cash hidden in a sofa at Ramaphosa's Phala Phala game farm, raising uncomfortable questions about how a lifetime public servant could have amassed such wealth and why he would keep it in cash instead of depositing it at a bank. •Ramaphosa's African National Congress colleagues in Parliament brushed the scandal under the rug in 2022 with a vote blocking the impeachment process. The Constitutional Court has now ruled that vote invalid, thus reviving the inquiry. •Like Starmer in the UK, Ramaphosa is defiantly refusing to resign. ISRAEL •The European Union slapped new sanctions on three Israeli settlers and four pro-settlement organizations accused of perpetrating violence against Palestinians in the West Bank, as well as several senior Hamas figures. •Spokesmen for both the Israeli government and Hamas seemed equally upset about the actual sanctions as they were about the other side facing similar - and not much harsher - penalties.
Open source reportOff Leash update 20 March GAZA •As the U.S. and Israel pounded Iran last week, U.S. mediators shared a demilitarization proposal with Iran's Palestinian proxy, Hamas. •The offer demands a "complete handover" and "full decommissioning" of all Hamas weapons - as well as those of all other armed groups in Gaza - and guarantees support for the territory's large-scale rebuilding in return. •Hamas reportedly has about a week to formally respond, but without a biting ultimatum, its leaders will probably stall for more time to strengthen their control over Gaza so they can negotiate a softer commitment to disarmament than this proposal, which one official criticized as a "take it or leave it" offer. IRAN •The European Union and Japan issued a joint statement expressing their "readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait [of Hormuz]," but several officials involved were careful to emphasize that "appropriate efforts" did not include the military support Pres. Trump is asking allies to send. •The WSJ suggested that Trump may try to prove his claim that U.S. forces alone can reopen the strait by deploying around 2,200 Marines to seize several islands in the area and use them as a base to thwart Iranian attacks on commercial shipping. The Marine force is due to arrive from Japan next week. OIL •The U.S. Treasury Department is reportedly considering relaxing sanctions on around 140 million barrels of Iranian oil that's already loaded and at sea, in a bid to ease surging oil prices amidst wartime supply disruptions. •A similar relaxation of Russian oil sanctions last week added about 130 million barrels to the global marketplace and temporarily lowered crude prices, but prices spiked again after Israel escalated attacks on Iranian energy sites. •Critics blasted the idea of gifting two adversaries with windfall profits they can reinvest in the wars they're actively fighting against the U.S. (Iran) or its interests (Russia). •A regulatory consultant quoted in the Washington Post complained: "Two countries that we’ve spent years sanctioning are now the direct beneficiaries of a conflict the United States chose to start." CUBA •As the Trump administration mulls relaxing sanctions on Russian oil, the Kremlin is stress-testing another of its foreign policy priorities: its energy blockade on Cuba. •At least one state-owned (and U.S.-sanctioned) Russian tanker appears to be headed for Cuba to deliver the fuel-starved island 730,000 barrels of crude oil. [In a coy move, the Anatoly Kolodkin is broadcasting its destination as "Atlantis, USA," which is impossible because a) Atlantis doesn't exist, and b) sanctioned vessels are prohibited from docking in real U.S. ports. Tracking analysts say its course points to Cuba.] •The Treasury Department quickly added Cuba to the list of countries barred from buying newly-unsanctioned Russian oil (the others are North Korea, Iran, and Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine). But that's unlikely to stop Russia from testing the U.S. blockade and delivering Cuba's first oil shipment in three months. VENEZUELA •Venezuela's U.S.-backed interim president, Delcy Rodriguez, fired her long-serving defense minister, Gen. Vladimir Padrino López, and other top brass yesterday. •López and the other ousted officials had been loyal to Rodriguez's deposed predecessor, Nicolas Maduro, and likely stood in the way of the reforms the U.S. is pressuring Rodriguez to make. •However, the fact that Rodriguez appointed another long-loyal, U.S.-sanctioned hardliner - military counterintelligence chief Gustavo González - to replace López suggests she's not in a hurry to make meaningful democratic reforms. This reshuffle lets her appear to be taking action while merely consolidating power for herself.
Open source reportOff Leash update 9 DEC GAZA •Former senior Shin Bet official Shalom Ben Hanan told the NYT that Hamas is "still standing" despite its two-year war with Israel. •Ben Hanan cited official estimates that Hamas still has around 20,000 active fighters after quickly replacing its casualties. •Hamas also appears to be reasserting its role in policing Gaza - though its senior officials insist they'll be willing and ready to cede power to an appointed transitional government once one is formed. DRC •Just days after signing a document in the White House Oval Office reaffirming a U.S.-brokered peace deal with the DRC, Rwanda's Pres. Kagame's proxy M23 invaded further into DRC territory in direct defiance of President Trump's peace efforts. •Local reports suggest the M23 is bringing in reinforcements from Rwanda, and leveraged the added troop strength to capture the village of Luvungi near the Burundian border. •Analysts also spotted signs that the rebels used freshly-supplied Rwandan surface-to-air missiles, armed drones, and jammers. •Burundi - which is receiving thousands of fleeing civilians – echoed these reports and blamed Rwanda for the chaos. Its Foreign Minister accused Kigali of "playing a double game. It claims to be negotiating and signing agreements, but in the meantime, it is intensifying attacks on the civilian population with kamikaze drones that kill instinctively.” YEMEN •The UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) separatist coalition announced that it had captured not only Hadramout, but all eight of Yemen's southern governates - including the port of Aden. •The STC's claim is credible but unconfirmed, and Saudi Arabia may still mount some resistance in defense of the government it was backing in Aden. •STC control of the south would mark a major change in the course of Yemen's long-running civil war. It would also increase the likelihood of Yemen ultimately re-fracturing into the two countries that comprised it before unification.
Open source reportOff Leash update 26 Nov UKRAINE •Pres. Trump relaxed his deadline for Ukraine to agree to the peace plan its negotiators have been discussing with their U.S. counterparts. Trump's earlier (soft) deadline had been tomorrow; he now says "the deadline for me is when it's over." •That reprieve will give Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, time to meet Pres. Putin in Moscow next week to coax Putin into signing a peace deal. So far Putin has expressed little interest in peace - even on the favorable terms of the current proposal. BRAZIL •Brazil's Supreme Court ordered ex-Pres. Bolsonaro to start his 27-year prison sentence as his appeal possibilities dwindle. •Pres. Trump imposed harsh sanctions on Brazil earlier this year as punishment for prosecuting his political ally, but he abruptly lifted most of the new levies on food goods late last week - despite Brazil's defiant pursuit of Bolsonaro's conviction. •Some analysts think Trump's tariff threats backfired and gave leftist Pres. Lula a popularity boost and a chance to portray himself as an underdog standing up to a bully. VENEZUELA •Caracas was offended that several airlines - including Iberia, Gol, Latam, Avianca, TAP, and Turkish Airlines - temporarily paused flights to and from Venezuela because of a U.S. FAA warning, and Venezuela's aviation authority, INAC, ordered the airlines to resume flights within 48 hours or risk losing their flight clearance altogether. •IATA, a global aviation association, warned Venezuela that revoking clearances would backfire and further reduce "connectivity to the country, which is already one of the least connected in the region." GAZA •Hamas returned the remains of an unnamed hostage that Israeli examiners later identified as Dror Or. That leaves just two deceased hostages left in Gaza. URBANIZATION •A new UN report ranked the Indonesian capital of Jakarta as the world's most populous city, with 42 million people. Jakarta was only the 33rd largest city when the previous ranking was done in 2018, but it has since grown fast enough to outrank all 32 then-larger cities. •Dhaka, Bangladesh is now the world's second most populous city, and it's growing even faster than Jakarta is. The UN projects that Dhaka's population - currently 36 million - will surpass that of Jakarta by mid-century. •The report also noted that 45% of the world's 8.2 billion people now live in cities. That's more than twice the share of urban dwellers in 1950 (20%). •Nine of the world's 10 largest cities are in Asia; Cairo (32 million, #4) is the only non-Asian city in the top 10.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 10 Nov 2025 Happy 250th Anniversary to the United States Marine Corps! COMING UP THIS WEEK •COP30 - the UN's climate conference - starts today and runs through Nov. 21. This year's edition will include fewer world leaders than attended past summits. The lackluster turnout is leading some to question the purpose of the summit. •The U.S. celebrates Veterans Day tomorrow, and the American Legion published a list of nationwide deals and discounts veterans can enjoy here: https://t.co/ri80Zt9MMx. •Tomorrow is also Iraq's election. Voter registration figures suggest Iraqis are disillusioned with their politicians, and many Shia will probably join popular cleric Moqtada al Sadr in boycotting the vote. Those who vote are expected to do so along sectarian lines, leaving Iraq's political elite to allocate power amongst themselves. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,848/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $106,245 •Cobalt: $48,570/ton •Copper: $10,717/ton •Ethereum: $3,604 •Gold: $4,078/toz •Lead: $2,047/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.49/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $60.22/barrel •Zinc: $3,057/ton VENEZUELA •Numerous reports suggest that Venezuela's strongman, Nicolas Maduro, has been leveraging Cuban intelligence to intensify a crackdown on suspected traitors within his government by jailing and - allegedly - torturing military officers suspected of disloyalty. •Whether or not any of the targeted officers were actually plotting against Maduro, his crackdown on suspected traitors is bound to make other officers hesitate to challenge his authority. •Separately, Venezuela's army released a series of new patriotic promotional videos over the weekend as part of what some analysts suspect is an effort to motivate soldiers and attract new recruits. •In one clip filmed at the national military academy, army commander Gen. Johan Hernández Láre boasts that the academy's cadets "are ready to destroy the enemy" after their training on the first-person view (FPV) drone simulators in the background. Gamers around the world may be worried: astute observers pointed out that the simulators behind Láre bear an uncanny resemblence to FPV Kamikaze Drone, a video game sold on Steam for $3.99. GAZA •Turkey accused Israel of bombing a Turkish hospital in Gaza and issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on charges of "genocide and crimes against humanity." Israel called it a "PR stunt." •While trading diplomatic barbs with Israel, Turkey is apparently constructively helping the U.S. and UAE try to negotiate safe passage for Hamas fighters trapped in tunnels in Israeli-controlled parts of Gaza. •Separately, Hamas returned the remains of Lt. Hadar Goldin, an Israeli soldier who was killed in Gaza in 2014. Goldin was one of the deceased hostages whose release was mandated by the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. DRONES •The UK said it would lend Belgium military support to protect against a wave of drone incursions into Belgian airspace. IRAN •Tehran's water supplies have continued to dwindle through a rain-less autumn, and authorities have started rationing water. •Late last week, Pres. Masoud Pezeshkian - who has been sounding the alarm about Tehran's looming water crisis for months - warned that Tehran residents may need to evacuate if the drought lasts another month. The Ministry of Energy is trying to draw rain using "cloud seeding" first. INDIA •A car bomb killed at least 10 people near one of Delhi's top tourist attractions - the Red Fort - today, leading authorities to impose a high security alert on other tourist and government sites in the capital. •Investigators are treading cautiously and not explicitly calling it a terrorist attack yet - but the fact that India's federal anti-terror investigators are leading the inquiry suggests terrorism is a leading theory.
Open source reportOff Leash update 3 Nov COMING UP THIS WEEK •The U.S. votes in mid-term elections on Tuesday. The most-watched races include New York City's mayoral contest, heated gubernatorial polls in Virginia and New Jersey, and California's Prop. 50 on redistricting (to supporters) / gerrymandering (to those opposed). •Sunday marks the 36th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,884/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $107,777 •Cobalt: $48,570/ton •Copper: $10,888/ton •Ethereum: $3,733 •Gold: $4,022/toz •Lead: $2,017/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.28/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $60.76/barrel •Zinc: $3,056/ton GAZA •Hamas returned the remains of three more hostages, including U.S. citizen Omer Neutra. •Despite Israeli claims otherwise, Hamas maintains that it's working as fast as it can to locate and return the remains of the other eight hostages who died in captivity over the course of the two-year war. •Meanwhile, an Israeli airstrike killed one man who was allegedly threatening Israeli troops near Gaza City. LEBANON •Israel is growing frustrated with the Lebanese government's lack of progress disarming Hezbollah, and has taken up the task of targeting Hezbollah operatives in southern Lebanon with near-daily airstrikes in recent weeks. •Lebanon's Pres. Aoun resents the intrusions and wants Israeli troops to leave the five areas of southern Lebanon that they still occupy. Aoun has called on Israel to negotiate a more permanent ceasefire than the fragile (but lasting) truce they signed a year ago. •However, Israel seems uninterested in negotiating while Aoun's government is failing to uphold its commitment to contain and disarm Hezbollah. [Analysts point out that Aoun's Lebanese Armed Forces are weaker than Hezbollah and he can't do much to force disarmament.] •Prime Minister Netanyahu warned of further Israeli action against Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, and blamed Iran for backing both Hezbollah and the Houthis. TANZANIA •Tanzania's election commission confirmed Samia Suluhu Hassan - who appointed its commissioners - as the winner of last week's presidential election, with an unsurprising 98% of the vote. The commission also dubiously claimed that turnout was around 75% higher than in 2020, when voters had more of a choice of candidates. •Hassan's win was essentially uncontested this time, since her government barred both real rivals from running. It also tried to prevent unhappy Tanzanians from protesting against the election by imposing a nationwide curfew, restricting internet access, and condescendingly calling critics of the undemocratic poll "neither responsible nor patriotic." •The main opposition party, CHADEMA - whose leader is imprisoned awaiting sentencing on spurious charges - claims security officers have killed hundreds of protesters. Demonstrations continue, despite Hassan's crackdown. CHINA •U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said China made a "real mistake" by proposing since-postponed export control restrictions on rare earths, since the threat alone motivated the U.S. to get serious about finding alternative sources for its rare earths needs. •Australia is one of the alternative sources being developed: Pres. Trump and Prime Minister Albanese recently signed an agreement to jointly develop Australia's rare earth supplies. •Incidentally, Bessent's comments felt like a close parallel to the effect that U.S. export controls on advanced computing chips have had on Chinese chipmaking, where supply restrictions forced fast-track domestic innovators to quickly catch up to technologies they were barred from importing. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 29 October GAZA AND THE WEST BANK •Israel accused Hamas of violating their ceasefire agreement by failing to return hostage remains as quickly as possible and by firing on Israeli forces, reportedly killing one reservist. •Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered "forceful strikes" that killed 104 Gazans in retaliation. •Hamas denied firing at Israeli troops and said it was committed to keeping the ceasefire, but threatened to delay the next return of hostage remains in response to what it deemed violations by Israel. •Pres. Trump and Vice Pres. Vance both expressed confidence that Trump's ceasefire will hold - despite what Vance called "little skirmishes here and there" - and Israel declared the ceasefire back on at 10 am local time today. •Separately, Israel also carried out its first airstrike on the West Bank since February yesterday, targeting Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) militants over PIJ's alliance with Hamas. JAMAICA •Hurricane Melissa hit Jamaica as the strongest storm the island nation has ever recorded, but weakened to a Category 3 storm before reaching Cuba early today. •Climatologists say the storm strengthened ahead of its Jamaica landfall because it drew heat energy from water temperatures 2.5°F (1.4°C) above the seasonal average. BRAZIL •Brazilian police mounted a massive, 2,500-officer operation against the Comando Vermelho (Red Command) drug cartel in Rio de Janeiro, killing at least 60 alleged criminals in the ensuing firefight. •Rio is hastily trying to clean up crime before its guests arrive for the COP30 climate conference, which starts Nov. 10. •Police carried out similar anti-gang operations ahead of other major events in Rio - like the 2016 Olympics, the 2024 G20 summit, and July's BRICS meetings - but this was by far their deadliest cleanup campaign yet. •Rights groups criticized police for using heavy-handed tactics in their raids and called for an investigation, but police chiefs maintained that they needed to use overwhelming force against well-armed gangsters who chased them with weaponized drones. CARTELS •The U.S. military struck four more alleged drug trafficking boats in the eastern Pacific Ocean yesterday, killing 14 and leaving one survivor (who was apparently rescued by the Mexican Navy). •SecDef Hegseth wrote that all four struck boats "were known by our intelligence apparatus, transiting along known narco-trafficking routes, and carrying narcotics" - but that won't be good enough proof for critics of the ongoing anti-cartel operations, who point out that the extrajudicial strikes are probably illegal.
Open source reportOff Leash update 13 October COMING UP THIS WEEK •The International Monetary Fund and World Bank hold their annual meetings in Washington this week, starting today. •Pres. Trump will host Argentine Prime Minister Javier Milei at the White House tomorrow. Milei will certainly thank Trump for lending Argentina unprecedented U.S. financial support to lessen the pain of the severe-but-overdue economic reforms Milei is implementing. •The Grand Sumo Tournament opens at London's Royal Albert Hall on Wednesday. It's a rare chance to see sumo wrestling outside of Japan: this is the first overseas competition in 20 years, and only the 14th event the Japan Sumo Association has staged abroad in its 99-year history. •NATO defense ministers will meet in Belgium on Wednesday to discuss Ukraine. •Bolivia votes in a presidential runoff between two right-leaning candidates on Sunday, after the long-ruling leftist Movimiento al Socialismo suffered a surprise defeat in August's first round vote. A La Paz-based analyst noted that the rightward swing fits a pattern of Bolivian voters becoming frustrated with the status quo and embracing the opposite political extreme roughly every 20 years. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,748/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $114,876 •Cobalt: $42,725/ton •Copper: $10,518/ton •Ethereum: $4,155 •Gold: $4,076/toz •Lead: $2,021/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.09/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $59.98/barrel •Zinc: $3,002/ton GAZA •Hamas released the last 20 living hostages in Gaza, in exchange for Israel's commitment to return about 2,000 Palestinian prisoners later today. •Pres. Trump was in Israel to celebrate the hostages' return, which came about because of the 20-point ceasefire deal Trump proposed and successfully pitched to both sides. •The hostage-prisoner swap was only the first phase of Trump's plan - and arguably the most straightforward part of it. •Next, Trump will travel to Egypt, where he'll attend a summit to solidify the trickier next phases of the deal, including a path toward a decisive truce and a plan for administering Gaza after the war. CHINA •Cryptocurrencies and stocks fell on Friday - and gold rose - after Pres. Trump revived his threat to slap 100% tariffs on Chinese goods in retaliation for China's announcement of new export controls on rare earths last week. •Beijing's announcement surprised Trump, who called its timing "especially inappropriate" for stealing the spotlight from Trump's successful peace-dealing between Israel and Hamas. •An incensed Trump threatened to call off his upcoming - but still unconfirmed - meeting with China's Pres. Xi at an Asia-Pacific summit in South Korea later this month, saying "there seems to be no reason" to meet Xi now. •Separately, a new NYT report focused on a massive high-altitude solar project China has built on the Tibetan Plateau (see https://t.co/bKZpG0t8kl), and included an impressive statistic that illustrates the scale of China's solar ambitions: on average, China has added new solar panels with power-generating capacity equivalent to that of the immense Three Gorges Dam every three weeks during 2025. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 6 October COMING UP THIS WEEK •Nobel Prizes will be announced from today to next Monday, with one of the six prizes announced each weekday. Today's announcement awarded the Nobel in Physiology or Medicine to three scientists who advanced our understanding of human immune systems. •Tomorrow is the second anniversary of Hamas's attack on Israel, which started the ongoing Gaza war. •The Seychelles concludes its three-day run-off presidential election on Saturday, and Cameroon votes for president on Sunday. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,710/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $124,275 - near the record high of $125,400 touched over the weekend in exuberance about last week's Federal Reserve rate cut •Cobalt: $35,000/ton •Copper: $10,716/ton •Ethereum: $4,573 •Gold: $3,934/toz •Lead: $2,020/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.44/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $61.44/barrel •Zinc: $3,035/ton GAZA •Hamas mostly agreed to the peace proposal Pres. Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu put forth last week - but with enough equivocation on key points (like a timeline for releasing hostages) to seemingly give Netanyahu cold feet. •For example, Hamas said it will need an unspecified amount of time to locate and excavate the remains of deceased hostages to return - which throws a wrench in Netanyahu's demand for an imminent deadline - and it demanded the release of some high-profile Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails in return. •Instead of accepting Hamas's positive response as a win, Netanyahu said the group's caveats constituted a rejection and said there was "nothing to celebrate" about the most promising ceasefire proposal yet. •Netanyahu certainly won't be celebrating the bind that Hamas's assent puts him in. As Eran Etzion - a former senior Israeli national security official under four prime ministers, including Netanyahu - put it, Netanyahu "will find himself with the entire world clapping [for a peace deal] and he needs to explain why he's against it." [Which is because he (rightly) fears that sealing a peace deal with Hamas will cause hardliners to end their support for his fragile premiership.] •Despite Netanyahu's dithering, delegates from Israel and Hamas will convene in Egypt today for mediated negotiations to finalize details of the proposed deal. Experts warn that this stage of negotiations may be the toughest: Israel and Hamas are still far apart on longtime sticking points, like the degree to which Hamas must disarm. •Several analysts pointed out that Israel's Sep. 9 strike on Hamas leaders in Qatar may have worked against Netanyahu and forced him into negotiations he'd hoped to avoid. It perhaps also catalyzed regional support for a peace deal by stirring up anger over a unilateral strike on a mediating country - and fear of further strikes on others in the region. JAPAN •Takaichi Sanae won the leadership of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in a run-off, making her likely to become Japan’s next prime minister - and its first female leader. Takaichi's LDP lacks a majority, so she still needs opposition backing to become prime minister, but analysts expect she'll prevail. •Analysts also expect her - once in office - to boost government spending and advocate loose monetary policy, so news of her election boosted the Nikkei 225 stock index 4% to an all-time high. FRANCE •Pres. Macron's seventh prime minister since 2022, Sébastien Lecornu, named his cabinet yesterday, and his picks - who were largely carryovers from the previous, ineffectual cabinet - fell flat. •Lecornu promptly resigned in frustration, blaming political "egos" and opposition parties with "partisan appetites." Macron must now try to find an eighth candidate to nominate - or give in to the right's calls for new elections, which would likely see Macron's centrist bloc lose seats to parties on both extremes. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 16 Sept VENEZUELA •The U.S. Navy targeted another drug boat near Venezuela, killing three people who Pres. Trump said were "positively identified, extraordinarily violent drug trafficking cartels and narcoterrorists" heading to the U.S. with "big bags of cocaine and fentanyl." •Some legal experts have criticized these extra judicial strikes on alleged drug boats as excessive, pointing out that even convicted drug traffickers don't face the death penalty. These accused traffickers are being executed without a trial. [Trump argues that drug cartels should be treated as foreign terrorist organizations and have forfeited their right to stand trial.] •Before the new U.S. strike was announced yesterday, Venezuela's dictator, Nicolas Maduro, called the first U.S. strike of this campaign - which occurred Sep. 2 - a "heinous crime" and "a military attack on civilians who were not at war and were not militarily threatening any country." •Maduro insists that the U.S. is trying to goad Venezuela into a "major war" with the goal of "regime change for oil." Few in the Trump administration would be sad to see Maduro's regime fall, but this naval operation seems like a roundabout way to launch a "major war." ISRAEL AND GAZA •Israel began the "main phase" of its ground offensive on Gaza City this morning, rolling tanks into Gaza's largest population center - which Israel believes to be Hamas's last major stronghold. •U.S. SecState Rubio just paid a visit to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, and offered Netanyahu full U.S. support for his offensive against Hamas. Rubio also conceded that a Gaza peace deal may be out of reach at this stage. •Both Rubio and Netanyahu dodged questions about whether Israel told Pres. Trump it planned to target Hamas leaders in Qatar in advance of the strike. Israeli officials maintain that Trump did indeed have advance warning; the White House claims he only found out after missiles were in the air. Either way, it seems clear Trump didn't have enough advance warning to object to the strike or warn Qatar about it. •On the other side, Arab states met yesterday in Doha to rally behind Qatar in unanimous objection to Israel's strike. •Iran's Pres. Pezeshkian was one of the most vocal attendees denouncing the strike; he complained that "Israel strikes wherever it wants and does whatever it wants," and proposed an "Islamic NATO" to deter future Israeli fire. That's ironic, given that Iran carried out its own ballistic missile strikes on Qatar just three months ago. SYRIA •I missed a key event in my weekly outlook: Syria's new government began a one-week process to choose its new legislature yesterday. •Interim President Ahmed al Sharaa will appoint 70 of its 210 members, while local committees will pick the rest. •As The Economist noted: "Popular democracy this is not, but it is certainly more unpredictable than elections for the old parliament, in which only Bashar al-Assad’s toadies were allowed to run." CHINA •U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent announced an eleventh-hour agreement to allow TikTok to continue operating in the U.S. under U.S.-controlled owners ahead of tomorrow's extended deadline. Presidents Trump and Xi will "complete" the deal Friday. •Separately, China's markets regulator ruled that chipmaking giant Nvidia's 2020 acquisition of Mellanox Technologies violated antitrust laws. That's going to make ongoing U.S.-China trade talks in Madrid awkward. Some observers suggested the ruling may be China's revenge for Pres. Trump's pressure on U.S. allies to raise tariffs on China over China's purchases of Russian oil.
Open source reportOff Leash update 15 September COMING UP THIS WEEK •Arab foreign ministers are holding an emergency summit today to discuss a united response to Israel's strike on Hamas leaders in Doha last week. Some analysts worry that the unilateral strike is leading U.S. allies in the region - including Qatar - to question what they gain from strong ties with a U.S. that either can't or won't intervene on their behalf to prevent strikes like this. •Pres. Trump will make an unprecedented second presidential visit to the UK this week, starting tomorrow. •Wednesday is the extended deadline for Bytedance to sell TikTok to a non-Chinese owner - but that deadline has already been delayed three times, and - given the lack of publicly-announced progress towards an acquisition deal - looks likely to be extended again. •The U.S. Federal Reserve will announce its decision on interest rates Wednesday. Pres. Trump predicted that the Fed will oblige his request for a "big cut" in rates. •The 19th annual Oktoberfest starts Saturday in Munich. •On Sunday, Guinea will vote in a referendum on its junta's new draft constitution. More on that below. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,690/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $115,036 •Cobalt: $33,335/ton •Copper: $10,068/ton •Ethereum: $4,531 •Gold: $3,637/toz •Lead: $2,018/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.95/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $62.89/barrel •Zinc: $2,957/ton RUSSIA •Romania said Russian drones invaded its airspace, marking the second time in under a week that a NATO member has reported a Russian drone incursion. •Analysts call the use of such gradual offenses to probe an adversary's response "salami slicing:" each slice advances Russia's geopolitical goals slightly, without causing enough of a stir to provoke meaningful countermeasures. NEPAL •Nepal's "Gen Z" protesters got their wish and saw their pick to lead the country's interim government, former chief justice Sushila Karki, sworn in as interim prime minister. •Karki said she'd been reluctant to accept the mantle of becoming Nepal's first female leader, and pledged to step down in six months after organizing fresh elections. GUINEA •Guinea's junta will put its new draft constitution to a referendum on Sunday. •The referendum was supposed to be a gauge of popular sentiment on ending the junta's military rule, but it instead looks like a way to legitimize its power grab: the draft proposal seems to open the door to keeping junta leader Mamady Doumbouya in power. •It won't be a fair vote, either: the junta banned the country's three main political parties - including deposed Pres. Conde's Rally of the Guinean People - from participating, saying the "parties have not fulfilled the obligations required of them." Their main offense seems to be demonstrating against the junta's illegal power grab. PALESTINIAN STATEHOOD •The UN General Assembly overwhelmingly approved a declaration condemning both Hamas's Oct. 7 attacks and Israel's subsequent war in Gaza, and supporting "tangible, timebound, and irreversible steps" towards a two-state solution to the long-running conflict. •The U.S. and Israel boycotted the resolution and criticized it as a "publicity stunt." SAHEL •Niger and Chad reported two apparently isolated recent jihadist attacks on their soldiers. •In the first, Islamic State (IS)-linked militants ambushed Nigerien soldiers after laying traps for them in Tillabéri, killing at least 14 and up to 27. Those coordinated incidents apparently took place last Wednesday - which was the same day Human Rights Watch issued a report warning of an escalation in IS attacks in the volatile region. •Then, Chad said "Boko Haram elements" killed 40 of its soldiers in an attack on their base in the Lac region bordering Nigeria early today. The attackers absconded with heavy weapons, which they'll likely use in future attacks.
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 Sept HAMAS •An Israeli airstrike targeted Hamas's leadership-in-exile in Qatar while they were reportedly meeting to discuss a new, U.S.-backed ceasefire proposal. •Hamas said the strike missed its most senior targets but killed five lower-level members, including the son of the militia's senior negotiator, and a Qatari security officer. •The strike - thought to be Israel's first on Qatar - probably did more damage to U.S.-Israeli relations and Qatar's willingness to mediate ceasefire talks than it did to Hamas. •Pres. Trump said he was "very unhappy about every aspect of" the strike and specifically lamented Israel's unilateral action against Qatar, which Trump called "a Sovereign Nation and close Ally of the United States, that is working very hard and bravely taking risks with us to broker Peace." •Qatar's prime minister offered reassurances that his country would still continue its (thus far thankless and fruitless) role of mediating between Israel and Hamas, but seethed at Israel for violating Qatari sovereignty. He criticized Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu by name and called for "a response from the entire region to such barbaric actions." •Meanwhile, Hamas belatedly claimed responsibility for Monday's shooting that killed six in Jerusalem. •Netanyahu's office said the Jerusalem shooting was one of the factors that led Israel to target Hamas's leadership in Qatar, but it seems more likely that Israel's strike had been planned for months and was only waiting for an opportunity to target a gathered group of Hamas leaders. NEPAL •Nepal's "Gen Z" protesters were clearly not satisfied with the government's half-hearted (and mildly patronizing) concession to lift a nascent social media ban but ignore agitators' more significant calls for reform. •Nor did the demonstrators accept yesterday's resignations of the prime minister, KP Sharma Oli, and home minister as solutions. •Following the resignations, angry demonstrators set fire to the Supreme Court, the parliament building, the prime minister's residence (and residences of three former prime ministers), and the ruling Communist Party of Nepal's headquarters. •The military sent troops to restore order in Kathmandu - apparently unsuccessfully so far. The protests seem to be morphing into a broader, angrier expression of economic discontent and outrage over government corruption. FRANCE •Pres. Macron appointed his former defense minister and close ally, Sébastien Lecornu, to become his fifth prime minister. •Like his unsuccessful predecessor, François Bayrou, Lecornu is a centrist. He'll face the same resistance from both political extremes - the far left and the far right - that stalled Bayrou's budget proposal and ultimately ended his premiership. IRAN •Iran signed an agreement laying out "practical modalities" for International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) experts to resume inspections of Iran's nuclear sites, which were cut off in June when Israel - and then the U.S. - bombed the sites. •Iran is keen to cooperate with the IAEA to avoid a reinstatement of UN sanctions, which is a distinct possibility after France, Germany, and the UK notified the UN last week that Iran was in breach of its commitments to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal. •That notification started a 30-day clock for consultations in which both sides hope to avoid the drastic default option of a "snapback mechanism" that reimposes UN sanctions on Iran. •Iran's foreign minister noted that its agreement to resume IAEA inspections is contingent on reaching a deal to avoid reinstated sanctions, and - if sanctions are reimposed - "Iran will consider its cooperation with the agency to have come to an end." 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 5 Sept UKRAINE •France's Pres. Macron announced that 26 countries have formally agreed to be "present on the ground, in the sea or in the air” to guarantee Ukraine's security in a potential future peace deal with Russia. •Macron was intentionally vague about what that commitment really means because the group does not wish to "reveal the details of our organization to Russia." •Several signatories - including Germany, Italy, Poland, and the U.S. - have already rejected the idea of having troops on the ground in Ukraine, and so far only Estonia, France, and the UK have publicly entertained the idea of sending ground troops. The Kremlin obviously hates the idea. •Pres. Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, attended the summit Macron co-hosted with the UK's Prime Minister Starmer, and Trump apparently dialed in, too. Their participation reinforced U.S. backing for a European-led post-war plan. •Trump seemingly surprised Macron by taking a tough tone on Pres. Putin after the pair's fairly friendly meeting in Alaska last month. On yesterday's call, Trump urged the 30 heads of state in attendance not to buy Russian oil, and to redouble pressure on China to stop funding Russia's war effort. AFGHANISTAN •As the dust settles on Sunday's earthquake in northeast Afghanistan, reports are emerging that some (all-male) first responders abided by Taliban-directed cultural norms and refused to help women and girls trapped in the rubble, leaving them to wait for female rescuers. •As a result, women may represent a disproportionate share of the 2,200 killed and 3,600 injured in the disaster when the Taliban government eventually releases a gender breakdown of casualties. Or - if casualty statistics were a woman's job before the Taliban banned women from working - we may never see that breakdown at all. DRC •DRC declared a new Ebola outbreak in its south-central Kasai province, which borders Angola. •So far, health officials have counted 15 deaths and 28 suspected cases in the current outbreak, which is DRC's first since 2022 - and Kasai's first since 2008. •Kinshasa is well-versed in dealing with Ebola, and keeps an ample "stockpile of treatments" - including vaccines - on hand to deploy to new outbreaks like this. GAZA •Hamas said it was ready to release all 20 surviving hostages in exchange for an end to the war and Israel's full military withdrawal from Gaza, but Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu - who demands Hamas's full disarmament too - quickly rejected its latest offer as "spin" and "nothing new." •Israel still hasn't formally responded to the ceasefire proposal Hamas agreed to last week, but its mounting military offensive on Gaza City seems like a negative sign. VENEZUELA •The U.S. Dept. of Defense (which is soon to be renamed the "Department of War") reported that two Venezuelan military jets buzzed one of the U.S. Navy's guided missile destroyers operating in international waters off the coast of Venezuela in a "highly provocative" attempt "to interfere with our counter-narco-terror operations." •The Pentagon responded with a direct warning to Pres. Maduro's government: "The cartel running Venezuela is strongly advised not to pursue any further effort to obstruct, deter or interfere with counter-narcotics and counter-terror operations carried out by the US military." Editor note to Venezuelan military: Fuck Around and Find Out!
Open source reportOff Leash update. 3 Sept VENEZUELA •The U.S. carried out what the Pentagon called a "precision strike against a drug vessel operated by a designated narco-terrorist organization," killing 11 aboard and marking the first kinetic action of Pres. Trump's recently-amplified campaign against cartels. •Trump later said those aboard the targeted vessel - 11 of whom were reportedly killed in the strike - had been "positively identified" as members of the Tren de Aragua drug cartel, and repeated his claim that Venezuela's Pres. Maduro is the cartel's leader. •While some analysts reject the notion that Maduro directly controls Tren de Aragua, many read Trump's latest statement as the strongest suggestion yet that his anti-cartel campaign could - as Maduro fears - be used to target the Venezuelan regime. GAZA •The NYT reported on an emerging rift between Prime Minister Netanyahu and several of his top military and security officials over Netanyahu's stubborn opposition to a Gaza ceasefire deal. •Netanyahu's military chief of staff, national security adviser, foreign minister, and Mossad chief are reportedly among those advocating for a negotiated, phased peace deal. •While none of the officials opposing Netanyahu's stance have broken from protocol to publicly dissent, the fact that officials are anonymously speaking to the press about it reveals a real rift within Netanyahu's administration. •Meanwhile, the military is pressing forward with the other path: an offensive on Gaza City. •However, commanders are reportedly struggling to recruit the additional 60,000 reservists they'll need for the new offensive. •Many veterans and reservists have joined growing calls to end the war, and those who favor Netanyahu's tougher approach are already on active duty carrying it out. •New recruits are hard to find among the war-weary public - up to 80% of whom want Netanyahu to strike a deal to end the war and bring the hostages home, per recent polls. It's shocking that PM Netanyahu cannot get his own sons to serve their country in wartime. PALESTINIAN STATEHOOD •Belgium said it would join Australia, Canada, France, and the UK in recognizing Palestinian statehood at the UN General Assembly this month. •Like the UK, Belgium has attached conditions to its recognition: Hamas must first release all hostages and relinquish "any role in managing Palestine." CHINA •Judging by the reporting from China's gathering of world leaders for this week's military celebrations, the event has been a marvelous success. •State media captured Pres. Xi having a jolly good time with his Russian, Indian, and North Korean counterparts - Pres. Putin, Prime Minister Modi, and dictator Kim Jong Un - and all seem in great spirits today for the best part: Xi's mighty military parade. NORTH KOREA •It's Take Your Daughter to Work Day for Kim Jong Un's only child, "Dear Daughter" Kim Ju-ae, who joined her father on his slow-moving bulletproof train to Beijing and is attending this week's festivities by his side. •Ju-ae - who is thought to be about 12 years old - has been accompanying her father to important parades. UKRAINE •Speaking in China, Russia's Pres. Putin told Slovak Prime Minister Fico that he'd reached a "mutual understanding" on Ukraine with Pres. Trump when the two met in Alaska last month. •He then seemed to squash hopes for a near-term peace deal by reiterating his tired refrain that the "root causes of the crisis" - i.e., Ukraine's independence and westward tilt - "must be eliminated" first. TECHNOLOGY •U.S. Federal Judge Amit P. Mehta ordered Google to share some of its search result data with rival companies to remedy Google's monopoly on search. Notably, the decision does not require Google to sell its browser, Chrome. •This was the first U.S. antitrust lawsuit against a modern tech major, and it sets a somewhat lenient precedent for how U.S. courts will regulate potential abuses of power by tech companies.
Open source reportOff Leash update 1 Sept COMING UP THIS WEEK •Today is Labor Day in the U.S. Over 150 countries celebrate a similar holiday on International Workers' Day (May 1), but the U.S. chose a different date to distance its commemoration from the May 4 anniversary of the Haymarket Affair, in which anarchists and socialists infused the struggle for labor rights with violence. •Guyana votes for president today. The incumbent, Irfaan Ali, is favored to win, but he faces two strong challengers who have pledged to renegotiate Exxon's contract to reward voters with an even greater share of the spoils of their country's oil bonanza than the $7.5 billion the state received under Ali. •On Wednesday, China will host a Victory Day parade. North Korea's Kim Jong Un will attend, and prepared for his trip by visiting a new North Korean missile production line to practice being impressed by military kit. •In what will certainly be a less ostentatious affair than China's parade, Norway votes for parliament next Monday, Sep. 8. The Labour Party's coalition of left-leaning parties has a slight lead over a right-leaning coalition led by the populist Progress Party and the center-right Conservative Party. A less likely - but more interesting - outcome than an outright victory by either coalition could see the Labour and Conservative Parties each ditch their fringe coalition partners and form an unprecedented centrist coalition. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,616/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $108,575 •Cobalt: $33,335/ton •Copper: $9,902/ton •Ethereum: $4,391 •Gold: $3,472/toz - near record highs on concerns about stubborn U.S. inflation and uncertainty over the future of the Federal Reserve's independence following Pres. Trump's attempt to fire a Fed governor •Lead: $1,991/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.03/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $64.64/barrel •Zinc: $2,819/ton AFGHANISTAN •A shallow (i.e., worse), 6.0-magnitude earthquake struck eastern Afghanistan near the border with Pakistan, killing at least 600 - and probably far more. •The quake's timing was terrible: Afghanistan's hospitals were already underequipped and understaffed before the U.S. suspended foreign aid funding earlier this year, and the population they serve has expanded by over two million in recent months as Pakistan and Iran both evicted Afghan nationals. •Even more Afghan deportees are on their way home now, since today is Pakistan's deadline for them to leave or face arrest. YEMEN •An Israeli strike last Thursday killed Houthi prime minister Ahmed al Rahawi and several other senior Houthi bureaucrats, but the Houthis' military leadership - who really run the show - weren't part of the meeting that was targeted, and vowed revenge. •Analysts say the already-hawkish Houthi military leadership is likely to nurture its extremist tendencies now that there will be fewer comparatively pragmatic voices around to advocate for moderation - and with Iran weakened and less able to stand up for its proxies. GAZA •An Israeli airstrike reportedly killed Abu Obeida, who served as Hamas's military spokesman and was one of its last surviving senior leaders. •Israel believes the remaining few surviving Hamas leaders - including its current chief in Gaza, Ezzedin Al Haddad - are holed up among hostages in Gaza City, which will be the focus of Israel's imminent offensive. UKRAINE •Andriy Parubiy, a prominent Ukrainian parliamentarian who advocated for closer ties with the European Union, was assassinated in Lviv on Saturday. Ukrainian police quickly arrested a suspect and alleged a "Russian trace" behind the killing. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 27 Aug COMING UP THIS WEEK •The two-day Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit starts Sunday. China's Pres. Xi, Russia's Pres. Putin, and India's Prime Minister Modi will all attend, but the meetings aren't expected to lead to groundbreaking new declarations or alliances. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,638/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $112,266 •Cobalt: $33,335/ton •Copper: $9,837/ton •Ethereum: $4,624 •Gold: $3,396/toz •Lead: $1,988/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.87/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $64.19/barrel •Zinc: $2,814/ton TRADE •Higher U.S. tariffs on India - which are, effectively, secondary sanctions on India for buying Russian oil - went into effect today. •Some feel India was unfairly singled out for an exceptionally high tariff rate of 50%, despite being largely aligned with U.S. geopolitical priorities and buying far less Russian oil than China, which is more of a geopolitical rival and yet enjoys a far lower tariff rate than 50% (for now). UKRAINE •Russian forces captured villages in Ukraine's Dnipropetrovsk region for the first time. Analysts suggest Putin is seeking new bargaining chips in case he's pushed to start negotiating a peace deal with Ukraine. GAZA •Two Israeli strikes on Nasser Hospital in southern Gaza on Monday killed at least 20, including five journalists, and drew widespread condemnation - including from the UN, which said there "needs to be justice" for the strike. Israel said it was aiming for a "camera that was positioned by Hamas" at the hospital. SAHEL •Russia's state-owned nuclear power company, Rosatom, signed a cooperation agreement with the junta in Niger to explore the radical possibility of building Africa's first nuclear power plant in the Nigerien desert. •Niger's current fiscal and technological state renders the construction of a nuclear power plant there virtually impossible - even with Rosatom's strongest. The cooperation agreement is probably more of a symbol of a switch of loyalty from France - whose state-owned Orano mined Niger's uranium for over 50 years - to Russia. DRC •DRC and the M23 resumed mediated peace talks in Doha, despite the M23's continued attacks in eastern DRC. •Both sides insist they're still serious about talking peace, but they've ignored self-set deadlines to resume talks by Aug. 8 and to finalize a ceasefire by Aug. 18, and have no additional motivation to seal a deal now. NORTH KOREA •Following a meeting with South Korea's Pres. Lee Jae-myung, Pres. Trump said he hoped to meet Lee's northern rival, Kim Jong Un, "in the appropriate future." It would be the fourth meeting between Kim and Trump.
Open source reportOff Leash update 21 Aug GAZA •The Israeli military began what a spokesman called "the next phase of the war" in Gaza and called up 60,000 reservists for the effort. Its troops have reached the edges of Gaza City and are preparing to encircle it and take control. •Meanwhile, a planning committee issued final approval for a contentious 3,400-unit West Bank settlement project called East One, or E1 for short. E1 was first proposed in 1995, but its approval was long delayed until now - in part over widespread concerns that E1's central location will disrupt the contiguity of the Palestinian-populated West Bank. •To Israeli hardliners like finance minister Bezalel Smotrich, that's exactly the point: after yesterday's approval, Smotrich gloated that the idea of a Palestinian state "is being erased from the table." Smotrich has been a driving force behind the recent acceleration in settlement approvals, and critics say Prime Minister Netanyahu has given Smotrich unprecedented - and unwarranted - authority over settlement plans because he needs Smotrich's party's support to stay in power. •Both moves - in Gaza and the West Bank - suggest Netanyahu isn't seriously considering the temporary ceasefire proposal Hamas agreed to this week. UKRAINE •Russia's Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, said that Russia would insist on being party to any future security guarantees for Ukraine, including those the U.S. is considering that Pres. Trump suggested could be "NATO-like." I suppose that means that if Russia attacks Ukraine post-peace, it will be obliged to retaliate on Ukraine's behalf against...itself? •Lavrov's bizarre comment seems like yet another example that Russia isn't ready to talk peace. •Meanwhile on the battlefield, Russian troops continue to inch forward using inefficient but sneaky tactics like sending small groups of footsoldiers across to regroup behind Ukrainian lines and attack. •Russia's broader goal appears to be to capture as much ground as possible so it can start peace talks from a better negotiating position - if its valiant stalling efforts fail and it's forced to start talks. CHINA •China's Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, returned from a two-day state visit to India with several trade and diplomatic agreements to rebuild and strengthen ties between the two Asian giants. Ties gradually frayed over their superpower rivalry, but cleaved in 2020 over a border dispute. •China and India now plan to reopen their shared (and still disputed) border in three places and facilitate visa approvals to improve trade flows. They'll also resume direct flights, which had been suspended since pandemic lockdowns. •Some analysts see the diplomatic rekindling as a result of U.S. trade pressure on India that has encouraged India to turn to other trade and geopolitical allies instead. •Separately, Chinese leader Xi Jinping paid a rare and unannounced visit to the Tibetan capital of Lhasa yesterday. Xi - who hadn't visited Lhasa since 2021 - said Beijing would "guide Tibetan Buddhism to adapt to socialist society," which probably means it will continue to impose the Communist Party's devoutly atheist values on resolutely spiritual Tibetan Buddhists in the region. AFGHANISTAN •After Chinese Foreign Minister Wang's visit to India, Wang flew to Kabul to offer Afghanistan's Taliban government new Chinese investment - particularly in infrastructure and mining (especially of lithium, iron, and copper) - and to invite Afghanistan to formally join the Belt and Road Initiative. •China's 176 construction contracts and investment pledges to Belt and Road members in the first half of 2025 totaled $124 billion. That's already more than the $122 billion that China pledged to members in all of 2024. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 20 Aug GAZA •Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu hasn't publicly commented on the ceasefire proposal Hamas accepted and put forward for Netanyahu's (unlikely) approval. •The proposal on the table would reportedly entail only a partial hostage release of 10 living hostages - about half the 20 or so thought to be left - and 18 bodies, in exchange for a 60-day ceasefire and a partial Israeli withdrawal from Gaza City operations. •That falls short of the "all or nothing" deal Netanyahu demanded last week, and the hardliners who have Netanyahu's ear - and could bring down his government - are vocally denouncing the proposal. •He will probably end up rejecting it, but - as The Economist pointed out - the fact that he hasn't already suggests his political calculus may have shifted slightly in light of last weekend's mass protests urging an end to the war and a hostage deal. UKRAINE •The White House says Pres. Putin has agreed to a direct bilateral meeting with Pres. Zelensky, followed - "if necessary" - by a trilateral meeting with Pres. Trump (though Trump thinks "it would be better" if Putin and Zelensky meet without him). •Despite Putin's theoretical agreement to a summit, the Kremlin is already dragging its feet on making one happen. A Russian deputy UN delegate complained about having "a meeting for the sake of a meeting," and Russia's Foreign Minister proposed some extra bureaucratic steps to stall planning. •Analysts say Putin isn't interested in talking to Zelensky except to accept Zelensky's capitulation. MEXICO •On Monday, the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) announced a "bold bilateral initiative" with Mexico to crack down on cartels smuggling drugs - including fentanyl - across the border into the U.S. •Mexico's Pres. Sheinbaum later said the DEA's announcement was premature, but she acknowledged that the two neighbors are indeed on the verge of signing a new security agreement that would significantly expand their collaboration against cartels. DRC •Human Rights Watch reported that Rwanda-backed M23 rebels summarily executed over 140 civilians in ethnic Hutu areas near Virunga National Park during July 2025. •The M23 didn't deny perpetrating the attacks, but it rejected claims that those slain were civilian farmers. The M23 insists - against evidence - that farmlands "do not exist" in the area. •In any case, it wasn't farmers that the M23 was after. The mostly-Tutsi M23 is seeking to root out militants from other armed groups, including the Hutu-led rival Rwandan group Forces Démocratiques de Libération du Rwanda (FDLR), which has been operating in the area for decades. •Survivors reported that some of the M23 attackers wore Rwandan military uniforms and spoke with Rwandan accents, corroborating multiple longstanding reports that Rwandan troops are actively involved in the M23's atrocities - despite Rwanda's Pres. Kagame's insistence to the contrary.
Open source reportOff Leash update 4 August COMING UP THIS WEEK •August 6 and 9 are the 80th anniversaries of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. •New U.S. tariffs go into effect August 7 - unless frantic bilateral negotiations result in a deal before then. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,566/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $114,649 •Cobalt: $33,335/ton •Copper: $9,631/ton •Ethereum: $3,560 •Gold: $3,359/toz •Lead: $1,972/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.06/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $66.63/barrel •Zinc: $2,727/ton GAZA •Hamas posted videos showing two Israeli captives looking extremely emaciated, causing new concern for their well-being and adding to calls for a ceasefire and hostage release deal amidst similarly disturbing reports of rising starvation in Gaza. •Prime Minister Netanyahu expressed "profound shock" over the hostage videos, and proposed that the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) deliver food and medicine to the hostages. Hamas said it was open to the idea - but only under the unlikely condition that Israeli attacks "of all forms must cease during the receipt of packages for the prisoners.” •Despite the reinvigorated sense of urgency for a ceasefire, substantive negotiations remain stuck at an impasse. Frustrated U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff suggested shifting to an "all or nothing" ultimatum in which Israel would demand the release of all remaining hostages and Hamas's full disarmament in exchange for an end to the war. •Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu can't end the war without jeopardizing the far-right support his fragile coalition depends on, and his critics believe - probably correctly - that he'll prioritize his own political survival over signing a ceasefire deal that could bring down his government. •That's likely why the latest ultimatum attaches a condition that Hamas has already categorically rejected: its full disarmament. Instead, Hamas unconstructively declared that it will not disarm until the creation of an "independent, fully sovereign Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital." UKRAINE •With their independence newly restored, Ukraine's two anti-corruption agencies, NABU and SAPO, announced that they had disrupted a major bribery scheme in which crooked officials - including a lawmaker, local officials, and National Guardsmen - agreed to pay inflated prices for drones and other military kit in exchange for kickbacks of up to 30% of the contracts' value. SYRIA •Syrian state-run television reported that armed groups violated a shaky truce in predominantly Druze Sweida to attack government security forces there. •We may see more violations in the coming days: Sweida's Druze are growing agitated over what they call a government "blockade" cutting off their flow of supplies via a humanitarian corridor to Jordan. They want the government forces to fully withdraw from the region. SOUTH AFRICA •South African scientists injected five rhinos' horns with a radioactive material called Rhisotope - which they say is harmless to the rhinos but easily detectable by airport scanners - as part of a new anti-poaching campaign. Conservationists estimate that poachers have killed an average of more than one rhino per day in South Africa since 2021. (Editor note: those rhinos die to supply Chinese bachelor parties with what Chinese herbalists think is a natural version of Viagra. Instead of just using Viagra.)
Open source reportOff Leash update 30 July UKRAINE •The Kremlin said it "took note" of Pres. Trump's threat to impose new sanctions and penalties if a ceasefire is not agreed with Ukraine by roughly Aug. 7-9. •In lieu of a direct response to Trump's ultimatum, Russia launched new missile strikes on Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro, killing at least 22. •Even Trump acknowledged that his tariff threat "may or may not" work, since Pres. Putin "wants to, obviously, probably keep the war going." RUSSIA •Separately, a massive 8.8-magnitude earthquake - perhaps the sixth-largest ever recorded - struck off the coast of eastern Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula early this morning, triggering a tsunami in the Pacific Ocean and warnings and alerts spanning the entire West Coast of the U.S. PALESTINIAN STATEHOOD •After much prodding from British citizens and MPs appalled by images of starving children in Gaza, Prime Minister Starmer announced that the UK will follow France's lead and recognize a Palestinian state in September unless Israel meets several weighty conditions before then. •In order to avoid the UK recognizing Palestinian statehood in September, Israel must first agree to a ceasefire in Gaza. It must also pledge not to annex the occupied West Bank, and it must commit to a credible process that will eventually grant Palestinian statehood anyway. •Prime Minister Netanyahu's furious reaction declaring that Starmer's ultimatum "rewards Hamas's monstrous terrorism" suggests Israel is highly unlikely to meet any of Starmer's conditions by September. TRADE •The EU's largest economies are less enthusiastic than European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was about the trade deal von der Leyen recently signed with Pres. Trump on behalf of the bloc. •Germany's Chancellor Merz said the deal would "substantially damage" the German economy, and France's Prime Minister Bayrou called its signing a "dark day" for the EU. •Both Merz and Bayrou likely lament the 15% tariff the deal locks in for most goods the EU exports to the U.S. However, pragmatists observe that the alternative was not a continuation of today's lower tariff rates but rather levies far above 15% and a possible trade war. CHINA •U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng talked trade for ten hours over the course of Monday and Tuesday, but only agreed to continue discussions and perhaps - if Pres. Trump approves it - extend the current bilateral tariff pause another 90 days from its expiration date in mid-August. INDIA AND PAKISTAN •India said its forces had finally - over 100 days later - killed three of the terrorists involved the April attack in Kashmir that sparked a brief skirmish with Pakistan. Prime Minister Modi's government has faced criticism for taking so long to identify and pursue the attackers.
Open source reportOff Leash update 25 July GAZA •After weeks of consideration, Hamas submitted its response to Israel's latest 60-day ceasefire proposal. •Hamas's response reportedly sought changes to the proposed clauses on humanitarian aid flows, post-truce areas of control, and - most contentiously - guarantees regarding an end to the war. •Specifically, Hamas wants Israel to commit to fully withdrawing from Gaza after the war, while Israel refuses to withdraw with Hamas still in control of the territory. •The U.S. and Israel promptly rejected Hamas's response and withdrew their negotiating teams from Qatar, and U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff angrily complained about Hamas's "lack of desire to reach a ceasefire." •Despite the U.S. and Israeli reaction, Hamas seemed surprised at how its response was received, and its officials remained optimistic that truce talks will continue next week. We'll see. •Meanwhile, the World Food Program estimated that one-third of Gaza's population of two million is currently "not eating for multiple days in a row." •Israel and the U.S. State Department blame Hamas for that: they - and the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation they back - allege that Hamas is systematically stealing humanitarian aid before it reaches hungry Gazans. (A new USAID study of 156 aid distribution incidents in June refutes this but acknowledges that an unacceptable share of aid falls through the cracks.) PALESTINIAN STATEHOOD •In a letter to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, Pres. Macron confirmed that France plans to recognize Palestinian statehood at this year's UN General Assembly in September, and will encourage its allies to do the same. •While most UN member states (147 of 193) recognize Palestine, France - which has Europe's largest Jewish and Muslim communities - would be the first G7 country to do so. •Israeli officials sharply criticized the long-expected announcement. Prime Minister Netanyahu said French recognition "rewards terror and risks creating another Iranian proxy," and Defense Minister Katz called it "a disgrace and a surrender to terrorism." VENEZUELA •Reuters reported that the U.S. is preparing a new authorization allowing Chevron to resume operations in Venezuela under stricter limitations than those defined in previous operating licenses that were cancelled in February. •Similar rights could then be extended to European oil companies - specifically, Italy's Eni and Spain's Repsol - under subsequent authorizations. •The newly tightened limitations would aim to force companies to swap certain imported supplies - rather than pay cash - for Venezuelan oil, thus further severing the Maduro regime's cash flow from oil sales. IRAN •Iran said it would allow inspectors from the UN's nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), to visit for the strictly limited purpose of reestablishing a working relationship between the IAEA and Iran. The visiting inspectors would not be allowed access to Iran's nuclear sites.
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 July AZERBAIJAN •Armenia's Prime Minister Pashinyan and Azerbaijan's Pres. Aliyev are meeting in the UAE today to finalize a peace deal ending almost 40 years of border wars. •Their detente is seen as a sign of Russia's waning influence in the South Caucasus: Moscow previously made itself indispensable in the region by alternately fueling and mediating border conflicts between Armenia and Azerbaijan. •With those conflicts now largely resolved (despite sporadic ceasefire violations), Russia can no longer gain leverage by mediating them. KURDISTAN •The imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), Abdullah Öcalan, released a video declaring the PKK's armed insurgency against the Turkish state over, and calling on his loyal supporters to join his "voluntary transition from the phase of armed struggle to the phase of democratic politics and law." •That's the same message Öcalan shared in a letter from jail in February, after which the PKK began the process of disbanding. That process continues this Friday, when some PKK fighters in Iraqi Kurdistan will hold a symbolic ceremony to destroy their weapons. •The truce still seems fragile, as Turkey hasn't formally agreed to any of the concessions Öcalan and the PKK seek, which include expanded autonomy for Kurds in Turkey. GAZA •Hamas said it agreed to release 10 hostages as a gesture of goodwill amidst ongoing ceasefire talks with Israel. However, its negotiators also complained that truce talks were "tough" because of Israel's "intransigence." KENYA •Kenya's Pres. Ruto is setting a great example for how *not* to handle peaceful protests or improve trust in government. •Many Kenyans have lost faith in their government and turned out to protest on Monday in commemoration of Saba Saba, the day in 1990 when Kenyans rejected Daniel arap Moi's autocratic rule and embraced multiparty democracy. •Ruto reportedly sent police to infiltrate and agitate Monday's protests, and openly admits that he ordered police to shoot protesters in the legs ("so they break and they can go to hospital on their way to court.") TRADE •The Trump administration sent new letters to at least seven more countries warning them of the tariffs they face starting Aug. 1 if they don't seal bilateral trade deals with the U.S. before then. •Trump also threatened Brazil with tariffs of up to 50% starting Aug. 1 for subjecting ex-Pres. Jair Bolsonaro - a Trump ally - to a "witch hunt" by trying him for allegedly attempting to stage a coup to stay in power. Brazil's current president, Lula, vowed to reciprocate.
Open source reportOff Leash update 7 July COMING UP THIS WEEK •Senior officials from BRICS countries - Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and the six non-founding countries admitted to the club later but excluded from its acronym - met in Brazil today and yesterday. Six leaders - including Presidents Xi and Putin - had more important things to do and sent representatives in their stead. •Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is visiting the White House today, marking his third visit since January. Pres. Trump expressed hope that his meeting with Netanyahu could help finalize a Gaza ceasefire deal in the next week. •Trump is also meeting the leaders of five African countries - Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mauritania, and Senegal - this week. Trade will be on the agenda: all five have significant untapped deposits of various natural resources but trade little with the U.S. •Wednesday is the postponed deadline for Pres. Trump's new tariffs to go into effect. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent has hinted that the deadline could be extended again to allow more time to secure bilateral trade deals. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,590/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $108,666 •Cobalt: $33,335/ton •Copper: $9,865/ton •Ethereum: $2,563 •Gold: $3,303/toz •Lead: $2,059/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.30/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $66.94/barrel •Zinc: $2,724/ton GAZA •Israel and Hamas both remained noncommittal but cautiously optimistic about the Egyptian- and Qatari-mediated (and U.S.-backed) ceasefire proposal currently on the table. •The terms of that proposal are still hazy, but early reports suggest it would provide for a 60-day ceasefire, during which Hamas would release 10 living hostages and 18 bodies in three separate batches (and Israel would release Palestinian prisoners) •Israel and Hamas would then start "proximity talks" - negotiations to hammer out the details - "as soon as possible," according to an Israeli diplomat. AFGHANISTAN •Russia became the first country to officially recognize Afghanistan's Taliban government, nearly four years after it regained control of the country. •Russia's foreign ministry said it looked forward to "productive bilateral cooperation between our countries in various fields" - which probably do not include strengthening democratic or human rights protections. VENEZUELA •Venezuela inaugurated the first Kalashnikov ammunition plant in the Americas last week. •Though the plant opened a day before Venezuela's independence day (July 5), it was not exactly an independent endeavor: it was built by the Kremlin's weapons export agency, Rosoboronexport, and will be operated by Russia's state-owned Rostec. IRAN •Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, appeared in public for the first time since the 12-day war with Israel to celebrate the Shia holiday of Ashura. •Khamenei hid out in a bunker during the war as Pres. Trump mused about assassinating him. There was little doubt that he had survived, but his supporters were nonetheless glad to see him alive and well. •Separately, the NYT wrote that Iran had hoped to use this week's BRICS summit to rally the group to condemn the U.S. strikes on its nuclear facilities at the end of the brief war, but failed to gain much traction. Russia, of course, leapt at the chance to criticize the U.S. for "unprovoked act of aggression," but China merely called for "restraint," and Brazil stayed out of it. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 30 June COMING UP THIS WEEK •The Wimbledon Championships tennis tournament starts today and lasts two weeks. •Bulgaria will adopt the Euro starting tomorrow, becoming the 21st member of the Eurozone. •Canada Day is tomorrow, July 1, and the U.S. celebrates its 249th birthday - as well as the annual Nathan's International Hot Dog Eating Contest - on Friday, July 4. •The 112th Tour de France cycling race starts Saturday. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,595/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $101,590 •Cobalt: $33,335/ton •Copper: $9,878/ton •Ethereum: $2,463 •Gold: $3,286/toz •Lead: $2,044/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.53/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $65.25/barrel •Zinc: $2,779/ton UKRAINE •Russia hit Ukraine with yet another largest aerial barrage yet, launching 537 drones and missiles overnight. As often, this round of strikes targeted Ukrainian infrastructure. •One Ukrainian F-16 crashed while defending against the Russian attack, killing the pilot. Ukraine has now lost three of its unknown number of F-16s. •Separately, Russian state media said Russian forces captured a village in Dnipropetrovsk. It would be Russia's first foothold in the eastern Ukrainian region, and could be part of Pres. Putin's theat to expand territorial gains in Ukraine in the absence of a peace deal (though some analysts suggest thinly-spread Russian forces will struggle to keep control of new territory). •Meanwhile, Putin claimed Friday that he's ready to talk peace. Putin has made similar statements before, only to backtrack when the idea moves forward and then shrug off blame for the resulting impasse. •Putin's press corps is already starting to suggest that Ukraine and the U.S. are responsible for the latest delays: Ukraine for not acceding to Moscow's territorial gains and Putin's assertion that "all of Ukraine is ours," and the U.S. for failing to push the warring parties towards a deal. GAZA •The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation - the new Israel-backed group distributing aid in Gaza - said it had credible information that Hamas has placed bounties on its aid workers. That adds to concerns that Hamas is seeking to undermine alternative aid delivery systems that it can't siphon from. CHINA •The latest Chinese Communist Party (CCP) census confirmed that the CCP has surpassed 100 million members. •Though the ruling party continues to grow - thanks in part to the rich job prospects its members enjoy - its growth slowed for the third straight year in 2024 as officials continued their efforts to expel slackers and crooks. GUINEA •Guinea's junta-run parliament proposed that the president's term be extended from five to seven years, and that presidents be allowed to hold office for two terms, or a total of 14 years. •That's an interesting shift for a junta that ousted the civilian government before it (in part) over overthrown president Conde's attempt to extend his term to five years and run for a third term, for a total of 13 years in power. TRADE •Pres. Trump walked away from trade talks with Canada on Friday, citing gripes with an "egregious" new tax Canada planned to impose on digital services that would disproportionately affect U.S. tech companies. Canada quickly gave in and ditched the new tax; it's not clear whether Trump will now return to talks.
Open source reportOff Leash update 12 June CHINA •Following two days of trade talks in London, the U.S. and China agreed on a framework for a longer-term detente in their trade war that would extend the temporary reciprocal tariff reprieve agreed last month. •The sticking point that kept last month's trade talks from reaching a lasting truce was China's refusal to lift export controls on rare earth minerals. U.S. officials seem content that the new framework resolves that impasse, but it's unclear whether it also addresses reciprocal non-tariff measures the U.S. imposed in response (such as curbs on Chinese student enrollment in U.S. universities). •The framework that came out of this week's summit will now be escalated to Presidents Trump and Xi for their approval. ECONOMY •A possible imminent U.S.-China trade deal wasn't factored into the World Bank's revised economic forecast released yesterday. That forecast predicted a decline in global economic growth from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.3% in 2025 - and a decline in U.S. economic growth forecast from 2.8% to 1.4% - due to trade wars like the one the U.S.-China framework aims to resolve. DRC •A new draft of a U.S. proposal for a Rwanda-DRC peace deal reportedly demands that Rwanda fully withdraw its troops from eastern DRC as a precondition for a ceasefire. •Rwanda's Pres. Kagame implausibly denies sending troops into DRC, but will nonetheless probably resist orders to withdraw them because he maintains they're necessary to counter vague threats from Hutu militias. SUDAN •Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) claimed it captured the strategic "triangle" region bordering Egypt and Libya. •The military - which has been fighting the RSF since April 2023 - seemed to corroborate the RSF's claim when it acknowledged that it retreated from the triangle region "as part of defensive arrangements to repel aggression." •Unverified local reports claimed that fighters loyal to Libya's eastern commander, Khalifa Haftar, crossed the border to help the RSF capture the triangle region. If confirmed, it would be the first known instance of Libyan meddling in Sudan's civil war. PAKISTAN •Likely jolted by last month's dust-up with India, Pakistan's military announced plans to boost its military spending by 20% to $9 billion for the fiscal year starting July 1. •That's a sharp increase - especially in the context of a 7% decrease in overall government spending for the next fiscal year. Parliament must still approve the budget. GAZA •In a letter to France's Pres. Macron and Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince MBS, Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas condemned Hamas's Oct. 7 attacks and called on Hamas to cede control of Gaza and release all hostages. •Abbas also promised various reforms to the PA, including new presidential elections to be held within a year. He has made and broken the same promise several times in the 29 years since the last presidential poll. •Abbas is hoping to meet Macron's conditions for recognizing Palestinian statehood as early as next week, and wants to position his PA to lead a potential new Palestinian nation. •Israel vehemently opposes Palestinian statehood, and has grown increasingly irritated with France for entertaining the idea. Prime Minister Netanyahu recently accused Pres. Macron of leading "a crusade against the Jewish state" by supporting Palestinian statehood. •Separately, five countries - Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, and the UK - slapped sanctions on two far-right Israeli ministers - interior minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and finance minister Bezalel Smotrich - for stoking settler violence in the West Bank and encouraging the expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 27 May GAZA •Al Jazeera reported that Hamas agreed to a ceasefire proposal suggested by U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, but Witkoff quickly dashed hopes for a quick truce when he told Reuters that the proposal Hamas accepted was not his, but was instead a "disappointing and completely unacceptable" plan of Hamas's own creation. •An Israeli official corroborated Witkoff's disavowal of the proposal that Hamas accepted and said no Israeli government could accept its terms - which reportedly called for the release of 10 living Israeli hostages in two groups, in exchange for a 60- or 70-day ceasefire, a partial Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and the release of a number of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails. •Witkoff's latest proposal - which is still on the table - reportedly differs from the one Hamas accepted on several key points, including the timing and sequence of hostage releases. NORTH KOREA •North Korea has arrested three shipyard officials over last week's botched destroyer launch, which left Kim Jong Un fuming and the 5,000-ton warship partially submerged sideways. •Western analysts studying the bungled launch attributed its failure to "pointed to a lack of experience, as well as political pressure from Mr. Kim for quick results." •In particular, the shipyard that constructed the ill-fated 470-foot (143-meter) vessel had no experience building ships that large, and was forced to launch this first attempt the risky way - sideways - because it doesn't have a big enough dry dock to launch by flotation or an incline wide enough for a stern-first launch. VENEZUELA •Guyana's vice president, Bharrat Jagdeo, rejected propaganda videos his Venezuelan counterpart, Delcy Rodrigues, shared purporting to show Guyanese citizens boarding a boat to cross the Essequibo River to vote in Sunday's Venezuelan regional elections: "It is dishonest and a sign of desperation when the vice-president of Venezuela has to use a fake video to support false claims that people were crossing the border to vote in the elections." •The 125,000 Guyanese who live in Essequibo did not, in fact, cross the river to vote in Sunday's election. Rather, the 21,403 voters who chose representatives for the disputed region - which the newly elected officials cannot access and don't control - came from a specially-created sliver of Bolivar state on the Venezuelan side of the river. It's telling that all 14 representatives they choose came from Pres. Maduro's ruling party. DRC •Amnesty International accused the M23 - and, implicitly, the Rwandan army that controls it - of violating international humanitarian law by torturing, disappearing, and killing detainees in Goma and Bukavu. •Citing interviews with former detainees, Amnesty said the violations it documented "may amount to war crimes," and called on "regional and international actors [to] pressure Rwanda to cease its support for M23." •Meanwhile, M23 confirmed yesterday that former Congolese president Joseph Kabila has arrived in Goma. [Some suggest Kabila has been in Goma for weeks, but this is the first clear confirmation of his return.] •The confirmation of Kabila's return will unnerve Pres. Tshisekedi's government, which lifted Kabila's lifelong immunity last week and plans to prosecute him for backing Rwanda's invasion and (allegedly) encouraging a coup to topple Tshisekedi. CARS •A German court convicted four former Volkswagen executives of fraud for their roles in the Dieselgate scandal, in which over 11 million Volkswagen diesel cars were installed with "defeat devices" that helped them illegally cheat diesel-efficiency tests by reducing emissions by up to 40-fold when a car recognized it was being tested. •Though ignobly motivated, the scandal helped accelerate a shift from high-pollutin' diesel cars to electric vehicles. In Europe alone, diesel's market share went from over half in 2015 to under 10% today.
Open source reportOff Leash update 15 May UKRAINE •Pres. Putin stood Pres. Zelensky up for today's peace talks in Turkey - which Putin himself had proposed on Sunday in an effort to avoid new sanctions EU leaders had threatened to nudge him towards talks. Zelensky grumbled that Putin's absence indicates "that he does not want to end the war." •It's not clear whether Ukrainian and Russian officials will still meet today. If they do, the Russian delegation will probably be led by hardline Putin aide Vladimir Medinsky rather than Putin himself, which means the summit is unlikely to result in a serious truce. •France is leading an EU effort to slap Putin with a 17th round of sanctions for blowing off peace talks. The new measures would target Russian "shadow" tankers and cyberattackers. SYRIA •On Tuesday, Pres. Trump unexpectedly announced an end to all U.S. sanctions on Syria "in order to give [Syria] a chance at greatness." •U.S. sanctions have hobbled Syria - they were a leading factor in the 90% decline in Syrian exports from 2011 to 2021 - and Syria's new government has successfully argued that it needs sanctions relief to help rebuild the country after 14 years of civil war. •Following his announcement lifting sanctions on Syria, Trump then met with Syria's interim president, Ahmed Al Sharaa, in Saudi Arabia. •Trump encouraged Al Sharaa to normalize relations with Israel, and said Al Sharaa agreed to join the Abraham Accords - the 2020 deal in which Bahrain, Morocco, and the UAE agreed to normalize relations with Israel - at an unspecified future time "when it's straightened out." •Before meeting with Al Sharaa, Pres. Trump addressed an investment conference in Riyadh yesterday with a well-received speech criticizing decades of U.S. nation-building and intervention in other countries and declaring that the U.S. will no longer be "giving you lectures on how to live." •Critics of U.S. intervention cheered the notion of a more hands-off approach, while activists in some countries expressed concern that human rights protections would erode without U.S. pressure behind them. INDIA AND PAKISTAN •The NYT published an excellent satellite analysis of the reciprocal strikes India and Pakistan took at each other during their four-day clash last week. •While both sides "claimed to inflict severe damage" on the other while sustaining minimal damage from the other's strikes, satellite photos suggest that both fought with restraint and precisely targeted military facilities and equipment - especially airplanes and airfields - while taking care to minimize human casualties. India reported losing five soldiers and Pakistan said it lost 11. GAZA •Israel's military likely killed several senior Hamas leaders - including Muhammad Sinwar (Yahya's younger brother), spokesman Abu Obaida, and Rafah Brigade Commander Muhammad Shabana - in a strike on the European Hospital in Khan Younis. •A Gazan political scientist told the NYT that Sinwar's "death would definitely be another big blow to Hamas...But I’m not sure if his death will lead to a compromise with Israel, and it might even backfire, if his successor turns out to be even more radical than Sinwar." SAHEL •Mali's junta responded to opposition protests demanding a return to democracy by formally dissolving all political parties and disappearing three opposition politicians who objected to last month's decision to give coup leader Assimi Goita a five-year unelected presidential term. RUSSIA •A Russian court sentenced Grigory Melkonyants - the head of the country's only independent election monitor, Golos - to five years in a penal colony for working with an "undesirable organization:" the Montenegro-based European Network of Election Monitoring Organisations (ENEMO). •Melkonyants insists that Golos has not interacted with ENEMO since the Kremlin branded ENEMO "undesirable" in 2021. It seems that Golos's true offense was documenting widespread fraud in Russian elections.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 26 March UKRAINE AND RUSSIA •Following three days of indirect negotiations in Saudi Arabia, Ukraine and Russia each agreed to "end the use of force" in the Black Sea and ensure "safe passage" of vessels through it - but under certain conditions that still seem far off. •In particular, Russia said it wouldn't put down its arms until the U.S. and EU lift their embargoes on Russian agricultural products - something the White House pledged to help Russia accomplish (and something Pres. Zelensky opposes as "a weakening of positions and a weakening of sanctions." •The EU is unlikely to agree to lift its sanctions anyway - even under U.S. pressure - and Pres. Zelensky complained that Russia was shifting the goalposts for a deal with new demands. It's clear that it will take further negotiations to secure a concrete Black Sea truce. GAZA •Hundreds of Gazans turned out to protest against Hamas in Beit Lahia in northern Gaza. It was a rare rebuke of the militant group that has ruled Gaza since 2007 - and drew it into war with Israel with its Oct. 7 attacks. Armed Hamas fighters broke up the demonstrations. DRC •Rwandan and pro-DRC government forces resumed fighting in North and South Kivu yesterday - despite agreeing to a ceasefire a day earlier. That ceasefire now looks as worthless as the others that came - and failed - before it. SUDAN •Sudan's military is facing criticism for an airstrike on a market in Darfur that reportedly killed dozens to hundreds of civilians on Monday. •The military denied targeting civilians, but both it and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) fighting it have been credibly accused of shelling civilian areas. •Separately, the army retook Khartoum airport from the RSF. SAHEL •Nigerien junta leader Abdourahamane Tiani was sworn in as the country's transitional president at the start of a five-year "flexible" transition back to civilian rule. •That follows a similar playbook to the one used by the juntas in Niger's fellow Alliance of Sahel States (Burkina Faso and Mali): grab power in a coup, then hold onto it for an extended period by promising to eventually transfer it to an elected government. It remains to be seen whether any of them will actually relinquish rule. IRAN •The U.S. slapped sanctions on three Iranian officials for their alleged involvement in the disappearance and probable death of ex-FBI Special Agent Robert Levinson. Levinson disappeared in Iran in 2007, and is believed to have died in captivity - though Iran never acknowledged abducting him or admitted he died on their watch.
Open source reportOff Leash update 25 March 2025 VENEZUELA •Pres. Trump accused Pres. Maduro's government of "purposefully and deceitfully" sending criminals and murderers - i.e. the Tren de Aragua gang - to the U.S., and announced plans to impose a punitive 25% tariff on all imports from countries that buy oil from Venezuela - even indirectly. •The largest buyers of Venezuelan oil are China, the U.S. (via Chevron's production, which Trump has ordered to wind down), Spain, and India. Rystad Energy thinks the threat of new tariffs will lead those buyers to seek other sources of oil, which should be fairly easy for all four countries: Venezuelan oil is not a major share of total oil imports for any of them. •Separately, the U.S. resumed deportation flights to Venezuela via Honduras after striking a deal with both Venezuela and Honduras over the weekend. TURKEY •Pres. Erdogan isn't backing down from his standoff with Istanbul mayor - and potential rival for the presidency - Ekrem Imamoglu. •Erdogan had Imamoglu fired from his mayoral post and re-arrested on Sunday - just hours before Imamoglu's party planned to name him as its candidate for the next presidential election. •Erdogan accuses Imamoglu of corruption and supporting terrorism; Imamoglu says the charges against him are bogus and politically motivated. •Tens of thousands of Turks seem to side with Imamoglu: the mayor's arrest sparked the biggest protests Turkey has seen in over 10 years, and Erdogan's authoritarian response - to arrest over 1,000 demonstrators, including journalists - risks feeding protesters additional grievances against Erdogan to rally behind. GAZA •Egypt proposed a new, limited ceasefire proposal for Gaza and said Hamas responded positively to the terms, which would see Hamas release five hostages in return for Israel lifting restrictions on aid flows. •Israel said it hadn't seen the proposal yet. AFGHANISTAN •The U.S. lifted bounties on three senior Taliban officials: Sirajuddin Haqqani, Abdul Azizi Haqqani, and Yahya Haqqani. •The reprieve was apparently part of a deal that U.S. envoy Adam Boehler struck when he visited Kabul last week. In return, the Taliban released a U.S. citizen who had been detained in Afghanistan for over two years. SOUTH SUDAN •South Sudan continues to edge closer to another civil war. Forces loyal to Pres. Kiir carried out airstrikes on a military base aligned with First Vice President Riek Machar near Juba on Sunday, and then arrested several of Machar's senior allies yesterday. •Kiir's side accused Machar's opposition of "scaling up their movements" and said Machar's forces had deployed a patrol "in military formation" to observe army positions. Both sides seem to be preparing to fight.
Open source reportOff Leash update 24 March 2025 COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,623/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,450/ton •Cobalt: $33,610/ton •Copper: $9,856/ton •Gold: $3,029/toz •Lead: $2,017/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.94/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $68.18/barrel •Zinc: $2,928/ton UKRAINE •Ukrainian and U.S. officials met in Riyadh yesterday, and may continue their summit today. They aim to finalize details surrounding the 30-day pause on striking energy infrastructure. •U.S. officials in Riyadh will also meet with Russian officials today. Russia has already agreed to the pause on energy infrastructure strikes, so these meetings will seek to advance an additional maritime ceasefire. •China is reportedly considering contributing peacekeepers to uphold a post-war truce in Ukraine "in accordance with the wishes of the parties." Russia had previously rejected the idea of NATO peacekeepers in Ukraine, but would probably be more amenable if China participated in the mission. GAZA •U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff told Fox News Sunday that Hamas seemed to initially accept his bridge proposal to extend the Gaza ceasefire last week, but then reneged and rejected it. Witkoff blamed Hamas for the failure to find a truce and the descent to resumed fighting. •Israel targeted Hamas's prime minister in Gaza, Ismail Barhoum, killing him in a hospital where he was receiving treatment for injuries he sustained in another Israeli strike. Barhoum had only been prime minister for a few days after his predecessor was killed earlier in the week - also by an Israeli strike. •Hamas's health ministry said Gaza's wartime death toll has now surpassed 50,000. Hamas doesn't distinguish between dead civilians and combatants. •Israel's Security Cabinet inaugurated a new directorate to assist Palestinians who want to be resettled abroad, and the new directorate kicked off its mission by flying 70 Gazans with foreign citizenships or family ties to Europe, where they'll resettle. YEMEN •Yemen's Houthis fired a Palestine 2 ballistic missile in the general direction of Israel's Ben Gurion Airport, but it was easily intercepted before it reached Israeli airspace (despite Houthi claims that it reached its target). SUDAN •After seizing the presidential palace from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on Friday, Sudan's military continued to retake key sites in Khartoum. Over the weekend, it recaptured the Central Bank, the intelligence headquarters, and the Corinthia Hotel. •The army's recent success in Khartoum doesn't mean the war is over: the RSF still holds parts of the capital, as well as large swathes of western Sudan. DRC •Nearly a week after Presidents Tshisekedi and Kagame agreed on the necessity of imposing a ceasefire in eastern DRC, the leaders of the Rwanda-backed rebel umbrella group Alliance Fleuve Congo (which includes the M23) said it supported a truce and announced that its fighters would withdraw from the mining town of Walikale, which they captured the day after Tshisekedi and Kagame met in Doha. •Tshisekedi then kindly asked (but did not order) his troops to observe the ceasefire too. •Both sides seem skeptical of the truce and ready to resume fighting at any moment. Rwanda and the rebels it backs are not ceding Goma or their other major spoils of war, and the Congolese military warned that it "reserves the right to intervene in the event of any hostile movement likely to compromise the pause in fighting." 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 20 March UKRAINE •Presidents Zelensky and Trump spoke by phone yesterday, and it was much more cordial than their last conversation in the Oval Office. Zelensky agreed to Pres. Putin's watered-down ceasefire proposal pausing attacks on energy and infrastructure targets for 30 days. •Zelensky asked the U.S. to monitor key energy sites protected by the current agreement: "Just the assertion and the word of Putin that he will not strike energy sites is too little." •The White House said its negotiators will continue to meet Ukrainian teams in Saudi Arabia to seek a Black Sea truce "in the coming days," and hoped to eventually reach a full ceasefire plan that both Ukraine and Russia can agree to. GAZA •Israel launched "targeted ground activities" in Gaza yesterday, seizing a sliver of the Netzarim Corridor to create a "partial buffer zone" between the north and south of the strip. Israel's goal seems to be to resume vehicle checks and add pressure on Hamas. •Thousands of Israelis protested in Jerusalem for a new ceasefire. CHINA •Pres. Trump teased a possible visit by China's Pres. Xi Jinping to Washington "in the not too distant future." •Trump said he'd ordered the capital to be cleaned up ahead of Xi's yet-unplanned arrival - as he did ahead of previous visits by other foreign dignitaries like India's Prime Minister Modi, France's Pres. Macron, and the UK's Prime Minister Starmer: "I didn't want to have them see tents. I didn't want to have them see graffiti. I didn't want to have them see broken barriers and potholes in the roads." •Canada may not be inviting Xi to visit anytime soon: China-Canada relations have taken two turns for the worse. Yesterday, China executed four Canadian citizens on drug trafficking charges - despite Ottawa's pleas for leniency. Then - at midnight this morning - China imposed (previously announced) tariffs on $3.7 billion in Canadian agricultural and food exports to China in retaliation for Canadian tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. IRAN •Axios and The Jerusalem Post independently reported that Pres. Trump's recent letter to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei gave Iran a two-month(ish) deadline to reach a new nuclear deal, and threatened significant new sanctions if the deadline isn't met. •Neither publication cited an exact date for the deadline, and Trump's letter may have left it vague to give Khamenei time to soften his position and come around to the idea of talking to the U.S. •Khamenei hasn't officially responded yet, but other Iranian officials - including Pres. Pezeshkian - have gently hinted that they're open to talks without explicitly disagreeing with Khamenei's hardline position. YEMEN •After Pres. Trump threatened to hold Iran responsible for future Houthi attacks on Red Sea ships, Iran reportedly privately asked its Houthi proxies to dial back their attacks and nudged Oman to convey the same message to Houthi leaders. •The Houthis remain outwardly defiant: Houthi foreign minister Jamal Amer vowed to resist U.S. pressure or Iranian appeals to "dial down" Red Sea attacks. But behind closed doors, the Houthis are probably listening to their benefactors (plus, ongoing U.S. strikes are chipping away at their arsenal). •My guess is that we'll see the Houthis lob some sporadic, easily-interceptible missiles in Israel's direction - like the one they fired towards Ben Gurion Airport overnight that Israel promptly destroyed - but won't see the dramatic escalation they've promised. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 March 2025 COMING UP THIS WEEK •U.S. and Ukrainian officials will meet in Saudi Arabia starting tomorrow. Pres. Zelensky is in Saudi and said he was "fully committed" to negotiating an end to the war, but he won't participate in the U.S.-Ukrainian meetings; instead, he'll meet Saudi's Crown Prince MBS for economic talks while his delegates meet U.S. SecState Rubio et al. •Greenland goes to the polls tomorrow. While the question of independence from Denmark isn't directly on the ballot, analysts will be watching results to see if Greenlanders veer towards candidates in favor of greater autonomy for their island. •China, Iran, and Russia will hold joint naval exercises in the northern Indian Ocean this week. Several countries - including Pakistan, Qatar, South Africa, and the UAE - will send observers. COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,706/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,450/ton •Cobalt: $26,960/ton •Copper: $9,614/ton •Gold: $2,901/toz •Lead: $2,019/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.60/MMbtu - a three-year high due to supply constraints and cold weather •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $67.06/barrel •Zinc: $2,887/ton GAZA •France, Germany, Italy, and the UK said they would support Egypt's plan for post-war Gaza; however, that plan still faces significant hurdles: the U.S. and Israel have rejected it - Israel more vehemently than the U.S. - and so far no donors have stepped up to commit the first of the $53 billion needed to fund the plan. •Optimists are hopeful for a second-phase ceasefire agreement this week. Israel sent a delegation to Qatar today "in an effort to advance the negotiations," and Hamas said it has received "positive signals" from the Egyptian and Qatari mediators it's been working with. SYRIA •An independent monitor estimated that over 1,000 people - mostly civilians - have been killed in the past week's clashes between the new government's forces and loyalists to the deposed Assad regime in Latakia. •The Assad loyalists clashing with government troops don't appear to be centrally organized or led; rather, the Institute for the Study of War suggests there are multiple small groups of loyalists each independently declaring a "united" front against the new government. •Interim president Ahmed al Sharaa appealed for calm and asked Syrians "to be reassured because the country has the fundamentals for survival." IRAN •Pres. Trump said he wrote a letter to Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, proposing a revival of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran. •Khamenei seemed cold on the idea: he complained about "bullying governments" using talks "as a pathway to have new demands." •Pres. Pezeshkian, meanwhile, seemed more open to talks - but noted that Khamenei calls the shots: "My position has been and will remain that I believe in negotiations, but now we have to follow the parameters set by the supreme leader." UKRAINE •A group of civilian and military analysts unveiled a framework for a ceasefire in Ukraine that came out of their spring 2022 meeting in Geneva. Their proposal calls for a six-mile buffer zone along the 700-mile front lines, which would be patrolled by peacekeepers, including foreign troops (the UK and France have offered to send peacekeepers, but Russia rejected the idea). •Meanwhile, Russia is eroding Ukraine's gains in Kursk by pushing Ukrainian front lines back and cutting off supply chains to the ~10,000 Ukrainian troops in Kursk. Ukraine had hoped to use the parts of Kursk it recaptured last year as bargaining chips in a negotiated peace; Russia's recent counter-advance will leave Ukraine with less to offer in a truce. •Separately, Pres. Trump said he was "just about" ready to start sharing intelligence with Ukraine again - now that Ukraine is participating obligingly in peace talks in Saudi. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 March 2025 COMING UP THIS WEEK •U.S. and Ukrainian officials will meet in Saudi Arabia starting tomorrow. Pres. Zelensky is in Saudi and said he was "fully committed" to negotiating an end to the war, but he won't participate in the U.S.-Ukrainian meetings; instead, he'll meet Saudi's Crown Prince MBS for economic talks while his delegates meet U.S. SecState Rubio et al. •Greenland goes to the polls tomorrow. While the question of independence from Denmark isn't directly on the ballot, analysts will be watching results to see if Greenlanders veer towards candidates in favor of greater autonomy for their island. •China, Iran, and Russia will hold joint naval exercises in the northern Indian Ocean this week. Several countries - including Pakistan, Qatar, South Africa, and the UAE - will send observers. COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,706/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,450/ton •Cobalt: $26,960/ton •Copper: $9,614/ton •Gold: $2,901/toz •Lead: $2,019/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.60/MMbtu - a three-year high due to supply constraints and cold weather •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $67.06/barrel •Zinc: $2,887/ton GAZA •France, Germany, Italy, and the UK said they would support Egypt's plan for post-war Gaza; however, that plan still faces significant hurdles: the U.S. and Israel have rejected it - Israel more vehemently than the U.S. - and so far no donors have stepped up to commit the first of the $53 billion needed to fund the plan. •Optimists are hopeful for a second-phase ceasefire agreement this week. Israel sent a delegation to Qatar today "in an effort to advance the negotiations," and Hamas said it has received "positive signals" from the Egyptian and Qatari mediators it's been working with. SYRIA •An independent monitor estimated that over 1,000 people - mostly civilians - have been killed in the past week's clashes between the new government's forces and loyalists to the deposed Assad regime in Latakia. •The Assad loyalists clashing with government troops don't appear to be centrally organized or led; rather, the Institute for the Study of War suggests there are multiple small groups of loyalists each independently declaring a "united" front against the new government. •Interim president Ahmed al Sharaa appealed for calm and asked Syrians "to be reassured because the country has the fundamentals for survival." IRAN •Pres. Trump said he wrote a letter to Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, proposing a revival of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran. •Khamenei seemed cold on the idea: he complained about "bullying governments" using talks "as a pathway to have new demands." •Pres. Pezeshkian, meanwhile, seemed more open to talks - but noted that Khamenei calls the shots: "My position has been and will remain that I believe in negotiations, but now we have to follow the parameters set by the supreme leader." UKRAINE •A group of civilian and military analysts unveiled a framework for a ceasefire in Ukraine that came out of their spring 2022 meeting in Geneva. Their proposal calls for a six-mile buffer zone along the 700-mile front lines, which would be patrolled by peacekeepers, including foreign troops (the UK and France have offered to send peacekeepers, but Russia rejected the idea). •Meanwhile, Russia is eroding Ukraine's gains in Kursk by pushing Ukrainian front lines back and cutting off supply chains to the ~10,000 Ukrainian troops in Kursk. Ukraine had hoped to use the parts of Kursk it recaptured last year as bargaining chips in a negotiated peace; Russia's recent counter-advance will leave Ukraine with less to offer in a truce. •Separately, Pres. Trump said he was "just about" ready to start sharing intelligence with Ukraine again - now that Ukraine is participating obligingly in peace talks in Saudi.
Open source reportOff Leash update 6 March UKRAINE AND EUROPE •Days after suspending U.S. military support for Ukraine, the U.S. has stopped sharing intelligence - including targeting information - with Ukraine too. •Ukraine has access to other sources of intelligence and the U.S. provides only 20% of its military support, so the U.S. suspensions won't immediately turn the tide of the war. A Ukrainian lawmaker told RBC-Ukraine that his military "has a safety margin of about six months even without systematic assistance from the United States, but it will be much more difficult, of course." •U.S. officials told the NYT that the suspensions are intended to last for just a week or two to nudge Pres. Zelensky to - as the NYT Kyiv bureau chief put it - "agree to [Pres. Trump's ceasefire] terms in advance, without knowing what they are." •Meanwhile, France's Pres. Macron continues to step up to fill the leadership vacuum left behind as the U.S. retreats from Ukraine. Macron said yesterday that France is open to the idea of extending the protection of its nuclear umbrella to its European allies. [France and the UK are the only European countries with nukes.] GAZA •Reuters reported that U.S. hostage envoy Adam Boehler met directly with Hamas representatives in Qatar in recent weeks to demand the release of the only surviving Israeli-American hostage and the return of the remains of four other dual citizen hostages who died in captivity. •Axios reported separately that Boehler's discussions with Hamas were mainly focused on securing the release of U.S. citizen hostages - which is well within Boehler's purview as a hostage envoy - but also touched on the potential for a long-term truce, which Hamas would want to secure in exchange for freeing the hostages. •It was believed to be the first time U.S. officials have directly engaged with Hamas, which the U.S. designated as a terrorist organization in 1997. •Pres. Trump then doubled down on Boehler's demands with a Truth Social post directed at Hamas, ordering it to "release all of the hostages now, not later, and immediately return all of the dead bodies of the people you murdered, or it is OVER for you." MOZAMBIQUE •Yesterday, Mozambique's Pres. Chapo signed an agreement with rival political parties ending their challenge against his election victory and quelling the violent protests resulting from it. •However, he excluded his chief rival, opposition leader Venâncio Mondlane, from the process. Mondlane called his supporters to the streets to protest against Chapo and his government in response, and police injured at least 16 protesters with live fire. So much for quelling violent protests. SOUTH SUDAN •South Sudan's police arrested oil minister Puot Kang Chol and the opposition SPLM-IO's military leader, Gen. Gabriel Doup Lam, this week. Both Chol and Lam are allies of Vice Pres. Machar, whose long-standing feud with Pres. Kiir has re-escalated in recent months. •The BBC reported that Kiir has ordered the arrest of all senior military commanders allied with Machar, and watchers are concerned that Kiir and Machar will tear up their fragile 2018 peace deal and resume civil war. TRADE •Pres. Trump agreed to a one-month reprieve on tariffs on auto imports from Canada and Mexico to the U.S. after a call with auto executives on Tuesday. In return, GM, Ford, and Stellantis agreed to move more of their production to the U.S.
Open source reportOff Leash update 27 Feb Ukraine •The new U.S.-Ukraine mineral deal is taking shape quickly: it was only announced Tuesday (though speculation was swirling before that), and Pres. Zelensky will fly to Washington tomorrow to sign the final agreement. •Negotiators leaked a draft of the agreement dated Tuesday to the media, and several outlets published the full text (https://t.co/WCfpbsvV3e). Some takeaways: oUkraine will put half of its revenues from future mineral and energy sales into a new, U.S.-controlled investment fund that will reinvest some of the funds into rebuilding Ukraine. oThe fund will only draw on revenues from new projects; proceeds from existing mines, oil wells, etc. are not part of this arrangement. oThe only reference to U.S. security guarantees is highly noncommittal - paragraph 10 says the U.S. "supports Ukraine’s effort to obtain security guarantees needed to establish lasting peace" - but Zelensky said he's content with that wording. Trump told his cabinet the onus for security guarantees should be on Europe - not the U.S. oTrump's initial demands for a $500 billion contribution target and Ukraine's commitment to repay twice the amount of any future U.S. aid were both omitted from the draft. •Ukraine has large untapped reserves of several critical minerals whose development could contribute to this fund, including uranium (Europe's largest reserves!), graphite, lithium, titanium, natural gas, and rare earths. However, around 40% of its mineral resources are in regions Russia controls - and would likely keep in a peace deal. Gaza •Hamas and Israel both fulfilled their part of a delicate hostage-prisoner swap yesterday: Hamas returned the remains of four deceased hostages - and crucially, did so without any of the macabre theatrics that marred prior handovers - and Israel began releasing the 600-plus Palestinian prisoners it agreed to free in return. •This swap went smoothly, but the Gaza ceasefire remains fragile, and Israel and Hamas still haven't agreed on terms for the second phase that begins on Sunday. •Israel estimates that Hamas now holds about 25 living and 30 deceased hostages. Syria •Prominent Syrians who attended Pres. al Sharaa's two-day nation-building conference this week left underwhelmed. Several said the summit was poorly organized, left out key stakeholders (like the Syrian Democratic Forces), and failed to make meaningful progress towards planning Syria's future. Venezuela •Pres. Trump announced that he was cancelling Biden-era concessions that allowed Chevron to continue producing and exporting Venezuelan oil because Pres. Maduro failed to implement promised electoral and immigration reforms. •Chevron's license to continue production and export despite sanctions brought an estimated $4 billion into Maduro's state coffers and represented around a quarter of Venezuelan oil production while it was in force. Sahel •The Alliance of Sahel States - Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger - unveiled a new flag for the triad their juntas formed in opposition to ECOWAS. •In keeping with their modus operandi of doing the opposite of whatever their former colonizer - France - would do, the flag they designed is an affront to modern vexillology that breaks all the important rules of flag design (no lettering, simple design a child could draw from memory, 2-3 basic colors that contrast well, etc.)
Open source reportOff Leash update 26 Feb Syria •Syria's interim president, Ahmed al Sharaa, opened a two-day conference in Damascus yesterday. •Al Sharaa hopes to use the event to win support from the diverse factions in attendance for his unity government, but one key faction is missing: the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led militia that controls northeast Syria. •Al Sharaa would prefer to include the SDF, but didn't invite it to this summit because the SDF refused to agree to his condition to disarm. The SDF doesn't want to disarm because - as its commander, Gen. Mazloum Abdi, told BBC recently - "we are still at war with Turkey and its proxies." •Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu called for the "complete demilitarization" of southern Syria on Sunday, and Pres. al Sharaa responded yesterday by demanding that Israel withdraw from the Syrian positions it grabbed as Assad's government fell. Israel then showed it has no plans to withdraw by launching airstrikes on what the army described as "military targets in southern Syria, including headquarters and sites containing weapons." Ukraine •U.S. and Ukrainian officials announced that they'd reached a deal that would grant the U.S. a share of Ukrainian mineral revenues. •The specific terms of their agreement aren't yet clear because the final translated draft hasn't been released, but early reports suggest the U.S. would give Ukraine security guarantees in return for up to half of the revenues from Ukraine's future mineral sales. Russia •The EU revealed the targets of its 16th round of sanctions that was announced last week to mark the third anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Among the 48 individuals sanctioned was chess grandmaster Sergey Karjakin, who vocally endorsed the invasion and became a Russian senator representing Crimea. DRC •The UN's World Food Program estimated that around one million people have been displaced by fighting in eastern DRC in the first two months of 2025. That's roughly equivalent to the full-time population of Goma. It also seems debatable: other reports suggest that life in Goma and Bukavu is returning to semi-normal under Rwandan and rebel control. •The UK suspended its aid to Rwanda over Kigali's invasion of eastern DRC. Rwanda grumbled about the "punitive" suspension and accused the UK of having "clearly chosen a side." •Burundi chose Kinshasa's side too, and local reports noted Burundian soldiers heading to Uvira alongside pro-Kinshasa militias. •As if DRC needed more to worry about, health authorities reported the outbreak of what seems to be a new, deadly, and still unidentified illness in the northwest. The mystery disease started with three children who got sick after eating a bat; it has now infected over 430 people and killed at least 53 of them. Tests have ruled out Ebola and Marburg viruses. •Separately, Reuters reported that Kinshasa is considering imposing quotas on cobalt exports, and will evaluate the idea during the four-month export ban it announced Monday. Gaza •Hamas and Israel said they'd reached a deal to trade 600+ Palestinian prisoners for the remains of four slain hostages. Israel was supposed to free these prisoners last weekend, but postponed their release over anger at Hamas's darkly theatrical hostage release ceremonies. •The Times of Israel reported that Hamas has agreed not to dramatize today's swap - but it also noted that it broke a similar promise last time. China •Taiwan's coast guard detained a Chinese-linked cargo ship that it suspects of severing a subsea cable yesterday. China said the incident was just a "common maritime accident" and warned Taiwan against casting blame "while the basic facts and the people responsible for the accident have not yet been clarified." 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 25 Feb Ukraine and Russia •After hosting France's Pres. Macron at the White House, Pres. Trump told reporters that the war in Ukraine - which started three years ago yesterday - could be over "within weeks." •Trump added that he may visit Moscow in the coming months to advance peace talks with Pres. Putin - to the chagrin of Pres. Zelensky and EU leaders, who bemoan being left out of bilateral U.S.-Russia talks. •Meanwhile at the UN, the U.S. voted against a non-binding European resolution condemning Russia for the war and calling on it to withdraw immediately from Ukraine. The U.S. instead introduced its own, softer resolution that still called for a quick end to the war, but - in the NYT's reading - "essentially sid[ed] with Moscow over longtime allies." •Separately, China's Pres. Xi and Russia's Pres. Putin spoke by video call yesterday. After the call, Xi gushed that China and Russia are "true friends who have been through thick and thin together," which led analysts to suggest that the point of the call was to disprove speculation that Putin's rapprochement with Trump comes at the cost of weakening Russia's bond with China. Gaza •The first phase of the Gaza ceasefire deal ends Sunday, and Israel and Hamas have reportedly not yet started negotiating the second phase. Hamas now says it will only return to negotiations if Israel releases the 620 Palestinian prisoners it was due to release over the weekend. DRC •DRC surprised the cobalt market with a new four-month ban on exports of the metal - 77% of which is produced in DRC (mainly in the southern copper belt - this is unrelated to the insecurity plaguing the east). •The export ban is intended to buoy cobalt prices - which have fallen by about 25% in the past year because of declining demand amidst a supply glut - but it won't be a long-term fix for the oversupplied cobalt market. That's because almost all of DRC's cobalt is produced as a byproduct of copper or nickel production, which will continue apace. The resulting cobalt byproduct will just be stockpiled in DRC, and - as soon as the export ban is lifted - it will flood the market, crashing prices again. •Some analysts are suggesting the export ban could harm DRC's long-term production potential because it could scare shocked buyers into sourcing from alternate producers with greater regulatory transparency - like Indonesia. •Meanwhile, the situation in the east continues to devolve, and the International Rescue Committee reports that at least 40,000 Congolese have fled to Burundi. Prime Minister Judith Suminwa Tuluka told the UN Human Rights Council that 7,000 people have died in recent weeks - roughly double the UN's earlier estimate. •DRC closed its airspace to Rwandan aircraft - though I'm not sure what good that decree will do when Rwanda already controls eastern DRC's two main airports. Syria •Syria's new leaders have been courting international partners in an effort to win allies and relief from sanctions imposed on the deposed Assad regime. Their efforts are paying off...but slowly. •Yesterday, EU foreign ministers agreed to ease restrictions on the central bank and energy sectors, lift asset freezes for five banks, suspend sanctions on the transport sector, and indefinitely extend an exemption allowing humanitarian aid delivery. •The EU's relief measures will help, but Syria still needs far more help to rebuild. U.S. sanctions remain in place, and Syria's central bank remains barred from the global SWIFT network. Venezuela •Another opposition activist, Reinaldo Araujo, died in Venezuelan jail from chronic health problems that deteriorated since his arrest on Jan. 9. Opposition-linked NGOs estimate 20 political prisoners have now died in detention. •Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado blamed Pres. Maduro's regime for Araujo's death and renewed her call on Maduro to free all political prisoners. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 19 Feb DRC •The situation in eastern DRC is unraveling quickly, with both Rwanda and Uganda now actively fighting to tear off pieces of DRC in a manner akin to how the Soviets and Nazis raced to rip Poland into pieces. •After capturing Bukavu over the weekend, Rwandan troops are continuing south and captured Kamanyo yesterday. Their next target could be the city of Uvira. •Meanwhile, Ugandan troops invaded Bunia in the north and called on Congolese forces there to surrender their weapons within 24 hours. The Ugandans appear to be heading for Butembo, and are attacking all Congolese army positions along the way. Ukraine •Senior U.S. and Russian delegations - led by SecState Rubio and Foreign Minister Lavrov - met in Saudi Arabia yesterday for the most significant direct talks between their countries in years. •The main purpose of their summit was to align on a path towards ending the war in Ukraine, but they also agreed to explore what Rubio called "the incredible opportunities that exist to partner with the Russians, geopolitically...and economically" - though Rubio also noted that U.S. sanctions on Russia will remain in place, for now. •European leaders who were left out of the summit - Ukraine's Pres. Zelensky most of all - expressed disappointment that the U.S. would so easily embrace a geopolitical rival after years of leading multilateral efforts to isolate it, and complained that Ukraine must be included in meetings about its future. •Zelensky's complaints about being left out drew a sharp rebuke from Pres. Trump, who appeared to blame Ukraine for being invaded and failing to launch peace talks sooner: "You should have never started it. You could have made a deal." [Trump also taunted Zelensky's low approval ratings, though he cited an inaccurate figure of 4%. Zelensky won 57% approval in the latest survey reported.] •Former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson observed that "Trump’s statements are not intended to be historically accurate but to shock Europeans into action." It seems to be working: EU leaders are organizing another, more inclusive emergency summit on Ukraine tomorrow. Gaza •Hamas reportedly extended an unsolicited offer - apparently at Egypt's behest - to kick off the second phase of ceasefire negotiations with Israel. Under its offer, Hamas would release all of its remaining hostages and hand over control of Gaza to the Palestinian Authority (which governs the West Bank), in exchange for a permanent ceasefire and full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. •Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu bluntly shut the idea down in a post on X: "Not going to happen." Netanyahu is committed to disarming Hamas and evicting it from Gaza altogether - conditions which Hamas has rejected and called "ridiculous psychological warfare." •Meanwhile, Egypt's Pres. Al Sisi will present his broader vision for Gaza in Riyadh tomorrow. Al Sisi's plan is said to call on Arab states to contribute up to to $20 billion to rebuild Gaza. Egyptian and Jordanian diplomats said (off the record) that Pres. Trump has agreed to the Egyptian plan, which was concocted as an alternative to Trump's initial proposal that controversially called for Gazans to be resettled elsewhere. Sudan •Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) said that it, too, plans to form a new government for Sudan. The RSF's government will rival the new government the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) recently said it would form as soon as it retakes Khartoum from the RSF. •The RSF and SAF have been fighting each other in a grueling civil war for nearly two years, so it was pretty clear that their former alliance was over. This week's news that they both intend to establish rival governments merely formalizes their split. •Side note: The fact that the RSF made its announcement from a government convention center in Nairobi, Kenya seems to corroborate the SAF's claims that Kenya is supporting the RSF. Syria 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 23 Jan Yemen •Yemen's Houthi rebels released the crew of the Galaxy Leader - a ship they hijacked at the beginning of their stranglehold on Red Sea shipping lanes in Nov. 2023 - citing "coordination with the Hamas movement." The Houthis had conditioned the crew's release upon a ceasefire in Gaza, and made good on that pledge by freeing them on Day 4 of the ceasefire. •The Houthis have also pledged to scale back their Red Sea attacks to focus on Israeli-linked ships, but - as I noted on Monday - many analysts are skeptical that they'd relinquish the lucrative business of selling safe passage guarantees that blossomed because of their attacks on vessels that haven't paid up. •Unrelatedly, Pres. Trump signed an executive order re-designating the Houthis a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO). Trump had designated the Houthis a FTO - and a Specially Designated Global Terrorist group - in his first term, but ex-Pres. Biden lifted both designations to facilitate humanitarian aid flows to Yemen. Ukraine •Pres. Zelensky spoke at Davos yesterday with a warning that Pres. Trump's "America First" priorities will leave a geopolitical leadership gap, and called on European Union (EU) leaders to fill it: "Europe needs to compete for the top spot in priorities, alliances and technological development." Russia •European Commission Vice President Kaja Kallas delivered a similar message at the European Defense Agency, warning that "Russia could test the EU's readiness to defend itself in three to five years" and calling on the EU to spend more on defense and "prepare for the worst." •Kallas pointed out that Russia currently spends 9% of its GDP on defense - compared to a collective EU average of 1.9% - and is far better equipped than the EU for a further military buildup upon escalation. She noted, for example, that Russia can produce more weapons and ammunition in three months than the EU's 27 countries can produce collectively in 12 months, and called for EU countries to earmark more for defense. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 20 January •Today's a big day in global events... •First, President Trump will be re-inaugurated at noon. The ceremony will be held inside the capital for the first time in 40 years due to freezing temperatures. And China's Vice President, Han Zheng, will attend the inauguration, marking the first time a senior Chinese official has ever attended a U.S. inauguration. •Trump's critics will prefer to celebrate Martin Luther King Day today. •The World Economic Forum starts today in Davos. This year's theme is "Collaboration for the Intelligent Age." •The Ohio State Buckeyes play the Notre Dame Fighting Irish for the NCAA football title at 7:30 pm ET tonight. The Buckeyes are favored by 8.5 points. You can watch on ESPN in the U.S. or stream on DirecTV, YouTube TV, etc. •The Winter X Games start Wednesday and end Friday in Buttermilk, Colorado. You can watch live and for free on the Roku Sports Channel in the U.S. and on YouTube abroad. •Belarus votes for president on Sunday, and I can already spare you the suspense and tell you that Pres. Lukashenko will be reelected. He's the only president Belarus has ever had, and all four of the candidates approved to run "against" him are staunchly pro-regime: they were only included on the ballot to create a veneer of democratic legitimacy for a sham vote to rubber-stamp Lukashenko's certain win. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,685/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $33,550/ton •Cobalt: $24,300/ton •Copper: $9,190/ton •Gold: $2,707/toz •Lead: $1,967/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.79/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $77.37/barrel •Zinc: $2,942/ton Gaza •Israel's security cabinet approved the Gaza ceasefire deal and it went into effect yesterday. •In accordance with the terms of the deal, Hamas released three hostages and Israel released 90 Palestinian prisoners. •Their next exchange is due to take place on Jan. 25, when Hamas will release four living female hostages in exchange for Israel freeing 30-50 more Palestinian prisoners. •After the ceasefire went into effect, masked and armed Hamas fighters fanned out across Gaza in what the NYT called a "show of force" for the populace. An analyst assessed: "[t]hey’re conveying that Hamas must be a part of any future arrangements, or at least, be coordinated with." •Despite the public display of confidence, Hamas's future role in Gaza is at risk. Israel's foreign minister reiterated yesterday that Israel had not agreed to let Hamas remain in power in Gaza, and instead noted: "[w]e are determined to achieve the objectives of the war" (which included destroying Hamas). Yemen •Yemen's Houthis launched their Red Sea shipping blockade ostensibly in solidarity with Hamas in Gaza, so watchers are wondering if they'll loosen their chokehold on regional shipping now that a ceasefire has taken effect in Gaza - or if the spoils of their ransom and protection payments are too attractive to forego. •Some analysts - including at The Economist - think the Houthis may choose to continue their lucrative racket exploiting the shipping industry even after the war in Gaza ends. •The Houthis released a statement yesterday saying they would be "stopping sanctions" on (i.e., no longer targeting) non-Israel-aligned ships...but they always claimed they were targeting only Israel-aligned ships, so this doesn't seem like a change of stance at all. •The Houthis plan to release a military statement today with further information about their future plans. China •TikTok said it would "go dark" in the U.S. after the U.S. Supreme Court upheld a law that would ban the app unless its parent company sold it to non-Chinese owners. •The app was down for about 12 hours, but then Pres.-elect Trump promised to issue an executive order delaying enforcement of the ban - "TikTok is back!" - upon taking office today, and the app re-opened to U.S. users. Libya 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 15 January Gaza •SecState Blinken reported that an Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal is "closer than it’s ever been before" and only awaiting Hamas's final approval. •Negotiators say Hamas seems ready to accept the terms on the table, and Israel has reportedly agreed too - though not publicly. Ukraine •A long-range Russian missile and drone attack targeted a Ukrainian oil depot and several other infrastructure sites around Lviv, forcing Ukraine to shut down its power grid in some surrounding areas. •Separately, unconfirmed reports suggest Australian citizen Oscar Jenkins - who was fighting for Ukraine when Russian troops captured him last year - has died in Russian captivity. Australia expressed "grave concerns" for his safety and threatened the "strongest possible action" if Russian forces killed him. South Korea •South Korean police detained Pres. Yoon Suk Yeol after a lengthy stand-off at his fortified residence. •Yoon is technically still the sitting president, although he was impeached and suspended last month over his brief attempt to impose martial law. •The Constitutional Court will first decide whether to uphold his impeachment, and - if it does uphold - whether to permanently remove him from office. China •Sunday is the deadline for TikTok's Chinese parent company to sell the video-sharing app or face a ban - unless the U.S. Supreme Court strikes the ban down before then. •The NYT reports that many of the app's 170 million U.S. users are reluctantly switching to alternative apps in anticipation of a ban. Ironically, one of the top alternative apps for "TikTok refugees" - as they're calling themselves - is also Chinese owned: Xiaohongshu (RedNote). Cuba •The U.S. will remove Cuba from its list of state sponsors of terrorism, in exchange for the Cuban government's agreement to free protesters jailed during its 2021 crackdown. •The designation has been a ping pong ball between U.S. Democratic and Republican administrations: Cuba was removed under Obama, added in the final days of Trump's first term, now removed again under Biden, and may be added again in Trump's second term. Oil Prices •Last week's fresh U.S. sanctions on Russian oil - and, in particular, the tankers carrying it - have caused supertanker shipping rates to surge. Current VLCC rates from the Middle East to China are up 39% since Friday. •The sharp rise in shipping rates suggests traders have - at least temporarily - stopped doing business with the sanctioned vessels, driving up competition and rates for non-sanctioned alternatives. •But grey and black markets always find workarounds, and the current sanctions only cover an estimated 35% of the ~670 tankers thought to be involved in shipping sanctioned (Russian, Venezuelan, or Iranian) oil anyway. Venezuela •Venezuela's opposition president-elect, Edmundo González Urrutia, landed in Guatemala yesterday - apparently after a six-day stop in the Dominican Republic. •González had planned to return from exile in Spain to Venezuela in time for inauguration day last Friday, but Pres. Maduro's security services blocked his return, and Maduro was uneventfully (and illegitimately) sworn in instead. •González met with Guatemala's Pres. Arévalo, and will probably pay visits to other regional leaders to rally support for his opposition, but it faces a tough uphill battle amidst Maduro's relentless crackdown. Mozambique •Daniel Chapo of the ruling Frelimo party was sworn in as Mozambique's new president today. His inauguration was as unexciting as Pres. Maduro's in Venezuela - and, Mozambique's opposition argues, as illegitimate.
Open source reportOFF LEASH EXCLUSIVE!!! Join our report from the field as @realErikDPrince describes his recent visit to Israel where he witnessed warnings of a missile attack, visited an entrepreneurial private military contractor on the battlefield, and met with the lead Israeli negotiator working to free the hostages still held in captivity in Gaza, including four American citizens. WATCH as @MarkVSerrano profiles @realDonaldTrump’s warning to Hamas that “all hell is going to break out” if they do not release the hostages by the time of his inauguration on January 20, 2025. ABOUT OUR SPONSOR The Unplugged Phone is here! After 3½ years of development, product testing, and fine-tuning, the first 10,000 Unplugged Phones are now available for purchase – and just in time. Congress recently expanded FISA to allow the government to compel private companies to turn over sensitive personal data without a warrant, or even an excuse. Unplugged is designed to prevent your data from being collected in the first place, meaning the government can’t spy on you without your knowledge. Get yours today at https://t.co/S4dpdHtFy4.
Open source reportOff Leash update 18 Dec Russia •Ukraine claimed responsibility for yesterday's assassination of Russian general Igor Kirillov in Moscow, justifying the hit as retribution for orchestrating the "massive use of banned chemical weapons" against Ukraine as chief of Russia's nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons protection forces. •The U.S. was no fan of Kirillov, who frequently promoted unproven propaganda campaigns against the West. Nonetheless, U.S. officials reportedly tried to dissuade Ukraine from targeting the general on Russian soil out of concern that such a high-profile assassination could provoke Pres. Putin to lash out in revenge. Syria •Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu paid an unannounced visit to Mount Hermon in Syria and declared that Israeli forces would remain there on a temporary but indefinite basis, "until another arrangement is found that guarantees Israel’s security." •Syria's new leadership saw Netanyahu's declaration as an affront to the sovereignty they hope to establish in Syria. •As part of that quest for legitimacy, Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) chief - and self-proclaimed "president" of Syria - Ahmed al Shara announced the dissolution of all independent armed groups in the country and the integration of all fighters under a unified Defense Ministry. That seems ambitious, given that these factions have little in common except a former mutual enemy - ex-Pres. Assad - who's now out of the picture. •Some rebel factions are busy waging their own wars. In the northeast, the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) agreed to extend their temporary ceasefire "to the end of the week." After that, the Institute for the Study of War expects the SNA - perhaps alongside Turkish troops - to try to capture Kobani and other SDF-held territory. Gaza •Hamas said it is involved in "serious and positive talks" about a ceasefire in Gaza, and U.S. CIA Director Burns is in Qatar for meetings to try to finalize a truce and hostage release deal. Optimism is higher than usual, but hopes for a deal have been dashed before. Iran •A new Reuters report estimated that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) now controls up to half Iran's oil exports - a marked rise from the 20% of oil exports it controlled three years ago. •One reason for bringing a greater share of oil exports under the IRGC is that it gives the IRGC direct control of the estimated $25 billion per year in revenues its share generates. That represents a huge part - nearly half - of the government's $53 billion annual budget, and presumably the vast majority of the funds the IRGC spends supporting its proxies and allies abroad. •It's also easier for the IRGC than it is for private oil traders to flout Western sanctions: the IRGC is already a U.S.-designated terrorist organization, so the threat of more sanctions certainly won't encourage cooperation with a geopolitical rival. Venezuela •Venezuela's opposition president-elect, Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, accepted the European Union's Sakharov Prize for human rights at the European Parliament yesterday. •In a speech after accepting the prize, Gonzalez vowed to go "back to Venezuela by land, air or sea" in time to be inaugurated as Venezuela's rightful president on Jan. 10. [Pres. Maduro - who all independent evidence suggests lost the July election to Gonzalez - is also planning to be inaugurated on Jan. 10.] •Meanwhile, even friendly Canada has slapped sanctions on some senior Venezuelan officials who helped Maduro steal the election. New sanctions target the head of the supreme court, two judges, a prosecutor, and a member of the electoral body. Mozambique •After battering Mayotte - where authorities are still assessing the extent of the damage - Cyclone Chido hit Mozambique, killing at least 34 and destroying over 23,000 homes. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 13 Dec Iran The head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC), Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami, offered state media some comments on the rapid upheaval that ousted Pres. Assad last week. Salami claimed the IRGC fought with Assad until the end - "the last person who left the battlefield was an IRGC soldier" - but is now adjusting to the new geopolitical "realities" of post-Assad Syria. That seems like a pointed message to the rebels the IRGC previously helped Assad assault - those who now control Syria - that Iran is accepting their victory and abandoning Assad. Syria Rebels raiding ex-Pres. Assad's palace discovered Borat among the deposed dictator's DVDs. I hope Sacha Baron Cohen autographed that copy with the same dedication he offered Assad in a 2012 press conference: "my dear friend and doubles-tennis partner, President Assad of Syria." [Cohen was in character as Gen. Aladeen of The Dictator, and went on to praise the United Nations for its inaction in Syria with biting satire.] The NYT reported that U.S. intelligence is carefully reevaluating its designation of the group leading the rebellion - Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) - as a "terrorist organization." HTS's precursors and current leaders earned the designation on merit when they aligned with Al Qaeda and Islamic State, but it now claims to have severed ties with terrorists and is paying much lip service to governance. Repealing the designation would make it easier for the U.S. to work with Syria's new leadership as it begins reconstruction. Meanwhile, Israel's military said it would stay in Syria until the establishment of "a new force" that can prevent anti-Israel militants from filling the void and using Syrian territory to attack Israel. Critics worry the Israeli presence could become permanent. Gaza U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan is still hopeful for a Israel-Hamas ceasefire "this month." Sullivan has been meeting with Israeli officials - including Prime Minister Netanyahu - this week, and left meetings optimistic that "the surround sound of these negotiations is different today than it has been in the past." However, Sullivan conceded that a deal still "might not happen," and there are no indications of a breakthrough on the sticking points that have doomed past deal proposals. Next he'll visit Egypt and Qatar to meet with mediators to discuss Hamas's position. With a peace deal still elusive, Israel continued to target terrorists in Gaza. One airstrike on the refugee camp of Nuseirat in central Gaza targeted a Palestinian Islamic Jihad leader and killed over 30 people. Ukraine Russia's ground forces are pushing towards the Donetsk transit hub of Pokrovsk amidst "extremely fierce" fighting. They're now within three miles (five kilometers) of the city's outskirts. Ukraine's top military leader, Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, lamented that a successful defense of Pokrovsk will require "unconventional decisions." Syrsky didn't elaborate on what form those decisions may take, but on two similar occasions in the past - in Kharkiv in 2022 and in Kursk earlier this year - Ukraine launched surprise offensives along new fronts to draw Russian attention and resources from a desperate defensive line elsewhere. We'll see if Syrsky draws on the same playbook this time. Russia also launched a new air barrage on Ukrainian infrastructure targets overnight, forcing Ukraine into yet another round of emergency power outages. China Pres.-elect Trump invited China's Pres. Xi Jinping to attend his inauguration in Washington on Jan. 20, 2025. Xi hasn't publicly RSVPed yet. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 11 Dec Gaza •Ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas are said to be gaining steam under pressure from Pres.-elect Trump to close a deal soon. [Last week, Trump threatened that there would be "ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East" if hostages weren't released before his inauguration on Jan. 20]. •However, there are no indications that either side has relented on the sticking point that stalled prior talks: Hamas doesn't want to release the rest of its hostages until Israel completely withdraws from Gaza, and Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu has vowed to stay and fight in Gaza until Hamas is evicted from the strip. •Qatar's Prime Minister Al Thani - who is a central mediator between Israel and Hamas - said most of the mechanics of a deal have been worked out, but noted that prospects for an agreement will boil down to whether either side is willing to make concessions to end the war. Syria •Much of deposed Pres. Assad's cabinet stayed on when Assad and his family fled to Moscow, and rebel leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani (who has now rebranded himself "Pres. Ahmed al Shara" on Telegram) met Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi Jalali yesterday to begin transition planning. They jointly appointed Mohammed al-Bashir to form a new transition government. •Al-Golani and Jalili are trying to project an air of normalcy and ensure continuity of government operations, but a UN official said Syria's public sector had come to a "complete and abrupt halt." Many offices remain closed, but overall Syria seems mostly orderly: the only looting taking place is some vengeful trophy hunting from Assad's palaces. •Meanwhile, Israel continued to strike military targets across Syria, but maintains that its ground operations are limited to a demilitarized buffer zone east of the occupied Golan Heights - and intended to prevent advanced weaponry from falling into rebel hands. However, several skeptical Syrian sources say Israeli ground troops have pushed about six miles (10 km) past the buffer zone to the town of Qatana. China •Taiwan reported that China is deploying a massive naval fleet to participate in war games around Taiwan in response to Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te first official trip abroad - which China viewed as a provocation since Lai visited U.S. territory (Hawaii and Guam) and met remotely with U.S. officials. China hasn't yet confirmed plans for military drills. Guyana •Guyana submitted a "final" written brief in its 125-year-old territorial dispute with Venezuela to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), which claims jurisdiction over the case. •The case is likely to drag on for years to come: Venezuela has until Aug. 8 to submit its reply to Guyana's latest brief, and the ICJ will set a date after that for oral arguments to begin. Venezuela •The UN's High Commissioner for Human Rights said his agency has been "able to resume partly our activities" in Venezuela after a hiatus of nearly ten months. The watchdog seems to be investigating the July election Pres. Maduro stole: last week it ordered Maduro's government to refrain from destroying vote tally sheets and other election evidence.
Open source reportOff Leash update 27 Nov 2024 Happy and Blessed Thanksgiving to you all America! We stand on the shoulders of giants and must care wisely for our Republic. Hezbollah •Israel's cabinet approved a deal for a "permanent cessation of hostilities" with Hezbollah yesterday, and it went into effect at 4 am local time. •As early reports suggested, the truce gives Israel 60 days to withdraw from parts of Lebanon south of the Litani River, handing control of those areas to the Lebanese military, which will be responsible for ensuring Hezbollah doesn't return to the border regions (as it did quickly after the failed 2006 peace agreement). •Turkey called on Israel to pay Lebanon reparations for the damage Israeli airstrikes inflicted during the campaign. The World Bank estimated that the three-month campaign caused Lebanon $8.5 billion in damage and losses. However, Israel has no obligation to pay - and probably won't. •Some - including Pres. Biden - were hopeful that Hezbollah's decision to make peace with Israel will galvanize (or cow) Hamas into a similar agreement, but that doesn't seem likely: neither Hamas nor Israel has shown any inclination to deescalate. China •The Financial Times (FT) reported that China's Defense Minister, Adm. Dong Jun, is being investigated for corruption. Dong is the third Chinese Defense Minister in a row to face corruption allegations. •Analysts think the investigation is a sign that Pres. Xi is expanding his crackdown on corruption in the People's Liberation Army (PLA). Some further surmised that the inquiries - and the fact that they keep digging up dirt on Xi's handpicked top brass - could shake Xi's confidence in his military, which could alter his timeline and ambitions on Beijing's claim to Taiwan. •China dismissed the FT report about Dong as "shadow chasing," but there have been other signs that Dong's clout is diminished: for example, he was recently skipped over for a widely-expected appointment to the Central Military Commission that runs the PLA. Venezuela •Pres. Maduro's government announced yet another investigation into alleged "crimes of treason against the country" by opposition leader Maria Corina Machado. •Maduro blames Machado for inspiring the U.S. to slap sanctions on him and his cronies, but all she really did was organize a way to expose Maduro's election theft by collecting true vote tallies that confirmed he lost the election. Mozambique •After weeks of trying to brush post-election protests under the rug, Pres. Nyusi acknowledged an impasse and offered to meet opposition leader Venâncio Mondlane for talks on election results Mondlane has questioned. Mondlane refused to attend in person but offered to talk virtually - if the ruling Frelimo party agrees to that and his other demands. •Some minor opposition parties did attend talks with Frelimo, but the meeting lost steam quickly without a quorum. •Meanwhile, protests flared back up after police violently broke up a pro-Mondlane rally. Netizens were particularly aghast at a widely-shared video of an armored police vehicle running down an unarmed protester earlier today. Pakistan •Supporters of jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan ended their demonstrations demanding his release - and the dissolution of the government that convicted him - after police used force to disrupt the rallies. At least six - including both police and demonstrators - died in the melee.
Open source reportOff Leash update 1 November Happy All Saints Day Ukraine •The Pentagon assessed that there are now 8,000 North Korean troops in Russia's Kursk region poised to cross into Ukraine. •Pres. Zelensky is frustrated that his allies have had "zero" response to the threat of North Korean boots on the ground. But he said this on South Korean TV, and may have intended it to entice South Korea to add support for Ukraine's side. •Meanwhile, U.S. diplomats are imploring their Chinese counterparts to talk North Korea into backing out of Ukraine. •That may work: U.S. analysts think China is already uncomfortable with North Korea - which has long depended on China - cozying up to Russia too, and wary that North Korea's involvement in Ukraine will draw the West into meddling in East Asian security concerns. Russia •A Russian court fined Google 20 undecillion rubles ($2.5 decillion) for removing 17 state-run propaganda channels from YouTube after Russia invaded Ukraine. •To put that number into perspective: oGoogle's fine: $2,500,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 oGlobal 2024 GDP forecast: $110,000,000,000,000 (1/23 quadrillionth Google's fine) o2023 Google net profit: $73,700,000,000 (1/33 quintillionth Google's fine) •For even more math fun, the fine doubles daily after the mid-2025 due date. •Given that it would take Google 33 quintillion years of profits to pay the fine at its starting level, Russia clearly doesn't expect payment any time soon: the penalty is effectively a ban on Google operations in Russia. Gaza •Several top U.S. officials are in Cairo pushing for a quick ceasefire agreement before next Tuesday's U.S. election, but Israel seems to want to wait to see who U.S. voters elect before agreeing to a deal. Hamas isn't in a rush either: it prefers to hold out for a permanent ceasefire rather than the temporary truces currently on the table. Iran •Two senior Iranian officials - IRGC deputy commander Gen. Ali Fadavi and the head of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei's office - said Iran plans to respond to Israel's retaliatory strikes, renewing the tit-for-tat cycle. •Following Israel's strikes, initial remarks by Khamenei and Pres. Pezeshkian seemed to suggest Iran would let Israel have the last word. Iran may be reconsidering now that news has spread that Israel's strikes caused more damage than Iranian officials initially let on. Other News •The Botswana Democratic Party - which has governed the southern African country since independence in 1966 - lost its majority for the first time in a surprising electoral rebuke. •Voters blamed the ruling party for economic woes caused by a slowdown in the diamond market, but also criticized some party figures for mismanagement and corruption. •To his credit, Pres. Masisi quickly conceded defeat and promised to ensure a smooth transition to the opposition Umbrella for Democratic Change Party and its president-elect, Duma Boko.
Open source reportOff Leash update 30 October Ukraine •The NYT wrote that Pres. Zelensky's failure to win Western support for his victory plan "could lead to a kind of success, allowing the president to show Ukrainians that he has done all he can and to prepare them for the possibility that Ukraine might have to make a deal." That's an interesting spin and could be Zelensky's second-best outcome for a plan that has failed to impress Western allies. •Separately, Ukraine's spies said they intercepted battlefield communications that suggested Russia is struggling to integrate its borrowed North Korean special forces troops. Russian soldiers on the hacked calls complained that they lacked enough commanders to lead the integrated units - or enough ammunition and weapons to arm the new recruits. •The intercepts also revealed that Russia has assigned one translator and three Russian soldiers for every 30 North Koreans joining the war; however, some frustrated calls complained that one translator isn't enough for 30 North Koreans. India •Canada's government escalated its charges that the Indian government was involved in the assassination of a Sikh activist on Canadian soil last year by explicitly accusing India's Minister of Home Affairs, Amit Shah, of orchestrating the hit. •Canada's accusation is especially serious given that Shah is a close ally of PM Modi and widely considered to be the second-most powerful figure in Modi's government. India hasn't responded yet. Iran •New satellite images from Planet Labs suggest that Israel's airstrikes on Iran over the weekend did more damage than Iran let on. Several struck key military sites, including three of the four sites where the IRGC produces missiles (the extent of the damage to each isn't yet clear). •Iran's leaders may have felt compelled to downplay the significance of Israel's assault to mask its defensive shortcomings and justify a tactical decision not to re-retaliate against a stronger enemy. Gaza •Israel and Qatari mediators are reportedly reviewing a proposal to open a month-long truce in exchange for the release of 11-14 hostages - including all remaining women and children in Hamas captivity. That's a slightly bolder proposal than the Egyptian plan currently on the table, but it still stops short of the permanent ceasefire Hamas is thought to be seeking. Libya •Austrian oil company OMV restarted its operations in the Sirte basin a couple weeks ahead of schedule. Libya's NOC - which has been pushing foreign oil firms to resume drilling - cheered the news. Guyana •Guyana's Pres. Ali announced a plan to give every ID-carrying adult citizen of the country a one-time $100,000 cash grant funded by proceeds from offshore oil sales. Guyana has enjoyed the world's fastest year-on-year GDP growth thanks to its oil proceeds. DRC •China's CMOC announced its third-quarter results, and they showed that cobalt production from the company's DRC mines had already surpassed its annual target of 60,000 to 70,000 tons by far: in just the first three quarters of 2024, CMOC produced nearly 85,000 tons of cobalt.
Open source reportOff Leash update 29 October Steve Bannon, political prisoner has been released from Federal Prison. Incarcerated four months for contempt of congress. Gaza •Israel indicated openness to considering Egypt's proposal for a short ceasefire and small hostage release. Hamas hasn't responded yet, but my guess is that it would prefer to hold out for a lasting ceasefire instead of a short one. •Israel has lost 55 soldiers in Gaza this month, making this the deadliest month of the war for the Israeli military. •Israel's parliament approved a bill that would - if enforced - close down the UNRWA (the UN agency responsible for aid distribution and implementation in Gaza and the West Bank). •Israel contends that the UNRWA is too sympathetic to - and even supportive of - Hamas and its terrorism, and there seems to be a kernel of truth to that: of the 19 UNRWA officials that Israel accused of participating directly in the Oct. 7 attacks, UNRWA investigators cleared 10 but fired nine who they determined had possibly joined the attacks. •Israel's allies - including the U.S., UK, France, and Germany - oppose a ban on the UNRWA because it would shut off the only trickle of much-needed aid still flowing into Gaza [the International Organization for Migration (IOM) could step up to fill the gap, but its director said there's "no way" the IOM could replace UNRWA]. The allies are trying to talk Israel out of enforcing its new ban. Hezbollah •Hezbollah named Hassan Nasrallah's longtime deputy, Naim Qassem, as its new leader. •Qassem has seemed reluctant to assume the mantle of leadership - and the target it puts on his back. After Nasrallah's death, he quickly fled to Iran to avoid the Israeli airstrikes that were were picking off Hezbollah's succession chain in Lebanon. •Early reports suggest Qassem will stay in Iran and lead Hezbollah from there, which will make it harder for him to lead an organization already in disarray. Ukraine •The Pentagon warned that North Korean soldiers have arrived in the western Ukrainian region of Kursk and could soon join the front lines. •The U.S. now estimates 10,000 North Korean soldiers are receiving military training in Russia and will soon deploy to Ukraine. That's a significant increase on the original U.S. estimate of 3,000, but it matches South Korea's initial guess. •A Pentagon spokesman said that the U.S. could lift its restrictions on Ukraine's use of donated long-range weapons to strike Russia if North Korea joins the war on Russia's side. North Korean soldiers apparently have already joined the war, so we could soon see Ukraine carrying out longer-range strikes inside Russia. •Russia's defense ministry said it "is thinking about how to respond" if the ban is lifted and Ukraine starts firing at Moscow.
Open source reportOff Leash update 28 Oct •The Big Five tech companies - Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft - all report quarterly earnings this week, starting tomorrow. •Hindus celebrate Diwali - the festival of lights - Thursday and Friday. •Moldova votes in a runoff election on Sunday. Pro-Western Pres. Sandu will probably win reelection, despite alleged Russian interference against her. •Daylight savings time begins for the U.S. on Sunday, while Europe changed its clocks back yesterday. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,678/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,100/ton •Cobalt: $24,300/ton •Copper: $9,603/ton •Gold: $2,730/toz •Lead: $2,046/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.43/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $67.47/barrel •Zinc: $3,102/ton Iran •Israel finally carried out its long-telegraphed retaliatory assault against Iran with "precise and targeted strikes" on mostly-symbolic targets, including air defense systems near energy sites (but not the energy sites themselves). Venezuela •Brazil effectively vetoed Venezuela's admission to the BRICS group of emerging economies by leaving Venezuela off of the list of new members it approved. •Pres. Lula's chief of staff explained that Brazil's veto "has nothing to do with democracy, but with a breach of trust...they promised us something and it was not done." •Despite Brazil's explanation, Maduro fumed about the snub as "inexplicable and immoral" and "an action that constitutes an aggression against Venezuela and a hostile gesture." •The veto was all the more embarrassing for Maduro because he'd traveled all the way to Kazan, Russia for the BRICS summit hoping to be welcomed as a future member - and Pres. Lula wasn't even there to reject him in person: Lula stayed home after a health scare and blocked Venezuela's accession in absentia. •However, as a consolation prize, Maduro got a meeting with Pres. Putin on the sidelines. Maduro said they discussed energy and defense cooperation and proposed a "new international financial system" to circumvent sanctions. •Separately, the U.S. Dept. of Justice charged Raul Gorrin Belisario - a Maduro crony who owns the pro-government Globovision news network - with laundering $1.2 billion in "corruptly obtained" oil revenues. Belisario's whereabouts are unknown. Gaza •While a full Gaza ceasefire deal remains elusive, Egypt proposed a baby step towards one. The Egyptian proposal calls for a two-day ceasefire in Gaza in exchange for the release of four Israeli hostages (and some Palestinian prisoners). Neither Israel nor Hamas has responded yet. Libya •Libya's NOC has been cajoling foreign oil firms to fulfill their contractual obligations to drill on their oil licenses, and several license-holders are starting to comply - perhaps reluctantly, given weak oil prices. •Italy's Eni and the UK's BP just began onshore drilling in the Ghadames Basin of Libya after a 10-year hiatus, while Spain's Repsol is preparing to resume drilling in the Murzuq Basin and Austria's OMV aims to restart operations in the Sirte Basin soon. China •The NYT reported that Chinese hackers tried to access cell phones belonging to Donald Trump, J.D. Vance, and possibly Kamala Harris. It's not clear whether they were successful. •Georgia's ruling Russia-appeasing Georgian Dream party won parliamentary elections. The pro-Western opposition rejected the official results, calling them "tantamount to legitimizing Russia’s takeover of Georgia." •Bolivia's ex-Pres. Evo Morales claimed he survived an assassination attempt yesterday and accused his bitter rival, incumbent Pres. Luis Arce, for orchestrating the attack. Meanwhile, Arce's Deputy Security Minister said police are investigating whether Morales had staged "a possible self-attack" to win voters' sympathy. Morales and Arce are locked in a vicious battle over their Movement Toward Socialism party's leadership, and their feud will likely worsen ahead of elections next year.
Open source reportOff Leash update 25 October Gaza •U.S. diplomats are hopeful that there's still a window to secure a Gaza ceasefire / hostage release deal following the death of Hamas's antagonistic leader, Yahya Sinwar. •CIA Director Burns is traveling to Qatar this weekend to meet Israeli officials and push for a deal. It's not clear whether Hamas agreed to join the Qatar talks - or who would represent Hamas if it does join talks. •Qatari mediators said they and Egyptian interlocutors had both had "some meetings...in the last couple of days" with representatives of Hamas's political office in Doha, but said there was "no clarity" over the group's negotiating plans. •PM Netanyahu said he hopes the talks will result in a ceasefire and hostage release deal, but media reports suggest he's the one who blocked previous truce proposals by moving the goalposts. There are no indications he's more willing to negotiate now that his position is stronger. Haiti •Gang violence has worsened lately in Haiti - despite the presence of a Kenya-led and UN-backed police force that arrived in June. •Earlier this week, two gangs - 400 Mawozo and Chen Mechan - seemingly deliberately targeted U.S. Embassy vehicles in Port-au-Prince, leading the Embassy to evacuate up to 20 of its "non-emergency" diplomats from the post. •Yesterday, armed gangsters shot at a UN humanitarian helicopter flying over the capital, landing at least eight shots and leading the UN to cancel its aid flights today. •The head of the UN's Integrated Office in Haiti told the UN Security Council: "The situation in Haiti has regrettably worsened." Iran •Mounting murmurs suggest Israel will launch its carefully-planned re-retaliation against Iran imminently. •Iran seems to be bracing for it and hoping it will be muted. Iranian officials have hinted that if Israel demonstrates restraint with a symbolic strike instead of a devastating one, Iran will let it be the last word and won't re-re-retaliate. •On the other hand, Iranian officials told the NYT that Ayatollah Khamenei has ordered a response if Israel assassinates senior officials or strikes oil or nuclear facilities. Russia •This week's BRICS summit in Kazan was widely seen as a victory for Pres. Putin: despite Western sanctions and opprobrium, he attracted 36 world leaders - as well as UN SecDef Guterres - to a forum where he fueled grievances with the West and its "perverse methods" and cast himself as an unfairly maligned counterweight. •Meanwhile, the WSJ reported that Russia has engaged in some perverse methods of its own by providing Yemen's Houthi rebels with satellite data to target their attacks on Red Sea shipping. Analysts said Russia's motive is to provoke instability and distract U.S. resources away from Ukraine. Sahel •Armed militants attacked a northern Nigerien border post near the frontier with Mali. Both Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen (JNIM) - a jihadist group - and Nigerien Tuareg rebels claimed the attack. The Institute for the Study of War said the dual claim "possibly indicate[s] that the two groups are coordinating their operations." JNIM hasn't previously attacked so far north, but it has previously coordinated with Malian Tuaregs - so coordinating with their Nigerien counterparts is well within the realm of possibility. Strategic Minerals •The U.S. Interior Dept. approved Australian mining company ioneer's mining project in Nevada, which will supply lithium for up to 370,000 electric vehicle batteries per year at full capacity. Environmentalists opposed and stalled the proposal, but a six-year review process led to a "science-based decision" to approve it. Construction will be funded by a $700 million loan from the U.S. Dept. of Energy and a $450 million investment from Sibanye Stillwater.
Open source reportOff Leash update 21 October Coming Up This Week •World Bank and IMF annual meetings take place in Washington, DC today through Saturday. Climate change programs are high on the agenda - although rich countries don't want to pay for them and indebted poor countries can't afford to. •Leaders of Commonwealth countries (the UK and most of its ex-colonies - or, roughly, countries that play cricket) meet in Samoa starting today. It's the first biennial Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting that King Charles III will lead. •Russia will host BRICS leaders for the bloc's 16th annual summit in Kazan tomorrow through Thursday. This will be the first opportunity for its new members (Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE) to join the namesake original members (Brazil Russia, India, China, and South Africa) for the meetings. [Saudi has been invited to join the bloc but isn't an official member yet and won't join this year's summit.] The group will discuss the possible future accession of up to 15 new members, including Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. •Uruguay and Japan will both vote on Sunday. A leftist opposition candidate, Yamandú Orsi, leads Uruguay's presidential polls, but not by enough to avoid a runoff. In Japan's snap poll, the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party hopes to recover public trust it lost in recent financial scandals, but it risks losing ground to a divided opposition. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,552/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,100/ton •Cobalt: $23,995/ton •Copper: $9,472/ton •Gold: $2,733/toz - an all-time record high •Lead: $2,034/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.28/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $70.34/barrel •Zinc: $3,082/ton Cuba •Cuba suffered four nationwide electrical grid failures over the weekend. •The energy minister blamed power plant problems, and it's no surprise that the island's outdated plants are failing: Fidel Castro once called them "prehistoric." The eight plants that produce Cuba's electricity are almost 50 years old - nearly twice their useful life - and poorly maintained. •The government seems to expect some blowback over the grid failures: Pres. Diaz-Canel appeared on national television (between blackouts) in fatigues to urge Cubans to express their frustrations peacefully. Middle East •Israel carried out airstrikes against Hezbollah's financial partner, Al-Qard al-Hasan, in Lebanon, and against Hamas in northern Gaza. •Militants in Hezbollah targeted PM Netanyahu's coastal residence, Caesarea, in a drone strike over the weekend. One drone penetrated Israeli air defenses but caused no casualties. Ukraine and Russia •Yulia Navalnaya - the widow of murdered dissident Alexey Navalny - told BBC that she intends to continue her late husband's fight against Pres. Putin: "I will do everything to make his regime fall as soon as possible." •Navalnaya also said she intends to run for president of Russia as soon as Putin is out of the picture (she rationally fears returning to Russia while Putin is still in power because his government - which killed her husband - has accused her of extremism too). •Separately, Ukraine sent hundreds of drones into several regions of Russia overnight. Russia intercepted most of them, but one penetrated Russian air defenses and struck a military explosives manufacturer deep inside Russian territory. •Russia also targeted Kyiv with airstrikes over the weekend. North Korea •South Korea's spy agency studied satellite photos to conclude that at least 1,500 North Korean Special Forces troops are fighting for Russia in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine previously warned that North Korea plans to send up to 10,000 troops to the war. Other News •Moldova voted yesterday on a referendum deeming EU membership a "strategic objective." The outcome is too close to call but slightly tilted in favor of closer ties with (and, eventually, membership in) the EU - despite Russia spending around €100 million supporting the other side.
Open source reportOff Leash update. 15 October Iran •According to a Washington Post report, Israeli PM Netanyahu gave Pres. Biden his word that Israel would not strike Iranian nuclear facilities or oil assets in retaliation for Iran's ballistic missile barrage earlier this month. Per WaPo, Netanyahu said Israel's retaliation would instead focus on Iranian military targets. •Oil markets believe Netanyahu - oil prices dropped as fears of a supply disruption eased - but that doesn't mean Israel has truly ruled out targeting nuclear or oil assets. U.S. officials don't always take Netanyahu at his word - Bob Woodward's new book recounts Biden privately calling Netanyahu a "fucking liar" in the past - and Netanyahu's own office even walked back his commitment to avoid striking nuclear or oil targets. A new statement from Netanyahu's office said the PM will consider U.S. input but make final decisions in its national interest. Gaza •Israeli strikes targeted a Hamas command center stationed near the Al Aqsa Martyrs Hospital in Gaza. The resulting fire killed or injured dozens of Gazans who'd taken shelter at the hospital. •Hamas often hides its command centers amidst civilians in the hope that their presence will dissuade Israeli strikes. But according to a new NYT report, Israel has also been using human shields. The NYT says Israeli troops have "regularly forced captured Gazans to carry out life-threatening tasks" like scoping out Hamas tunnels or abandoned buildings for booby-traps. North Korea •North Korea accused South Korea of flying leaflet-dropping drones over Pyongyang for a third time this month, and lashed out in a symbolic response by dramatically demolishing unused roads that once connected the two neighbors. •Kim Jong Un and his sister, Kim Yo Jong, had threatened "immediate military action" in retaliation to the alleged drone incursions, but they're unlikely to instigate anything more provocative than blowing up some cracked asphalt: Pyongyang knows better than to goad a better-armed adversary into open conflict. China •Taiwan counted a record 153 Chinese warplanes participating in the one-day "Joint Sword-2024B" military drills that Beijing launched in reaction to a provocative speech by Taiwan's Pres. Lai Ching-te. •Taiwanese officials complained that "Any drills without prior warning will cause great disturbance to peace and stability in the entire region." Russia •A new report by the Ukraine-based Kyiv School of Economics Institute estimated that almost 70% of Russia's oil is being transported by its fleet of unregistered "shadow tankers." •According to the Kyiv institute, Russia uses its shadow fleet to evade sanctions and sell oil above the $60 per barrel price cap set for it, earning it $15-60 per barrel more. Multiplied by its estimated shadow fleet volumes of up to 120 million barrels per month, that's a lucrative workaround. •The Kyiv institute also warned that the shadow tankers are usually uninsured or underinsured, and have an average age of 18 years. Several have already run aground or collided with other ships. If one were to cause a major oil spill, it's unlikely Russia - which denies any official links to the shadow fleet - would pay for cleanup. Venezuela •Venezuela's sanctioned Attorney General, Tarek Saab, bizarrely accused Brazil's Pres. Lula and Chile's Pres. Boric of being CIA agents - because why else would they join the U.S. (and dozens of other countries) in questioning the legitimacy of Pres. Maduro's bogus claim to have won re-election? •Separately, opposition leader Maria Corina Machado made a moving audio appeal to Venezuelan soldiers to stop supporting a "regime that's on its way out" and join the opposition in forming a "new republic." •It's widely known that many Venezuelan soldiers - spanning all ranks and across all military branches - already quietly support the opposition and would defect as soon as they feel safe doing so. Appeals like Machado's may help turn the tide.
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 Sept Syria •Israel targeted a government research institute in Masyaf, Syria, killing at least 18. •Reuters reported that a team of Iranian scientists was working at the institute, which produces short- and long-range missiles and drones that Iran sends to its proxies, including Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. (The facility also produces chemical weapons that Pres. Assad uses on his own people). Israel •A Jordanian gunman killed three Israeli civilian workers at the Allenby Bridge border crossing. Jordan has a vigilant security service and strong security ties with Israel (though many Jordanians sympathize with their Palestinian neighbors), so attacks like this are rare. This was the first one along the Jordanian-Israeli border since Oct. 7. •Meanwhile, Israel targeted a Hamas command that it said was "disguised in the humanitarian area in Khan Younis," killing at least 40. Hamas said the casualties were displaced civilians and denied hiding militants among them. Venezuela •Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado vowed to stay in Venezuela and "take part in the struggle from here" while the candidate she supported in July's election, Edmundo Gonzalez, supports the cause from exile in Spain. •Gonzalez joins a long list of Venezuelan opposition leaders - and even mere sympathizers - driven into exile. The NYT interviewed five others who served as election observers but fled to exile in Colombia after (rightfully) asking questions about election results. •Those that didn't flee are being rounded up in Pres. Maduro's Operation Knock Knock - a nationwide manhunt for people who attended opposition protests or posted pro-opposition content online. Thousands have been arrested so far. China •Foreign direct investment in China hit a record low of negative $14.8 billion in the second quarter. •Perhaps in response, Communist Party leaders removed two industries - publishing and traditional medicine production - from the list of sectors barring foreign investment. There are still 29 industries on the restricted list. Ukraine •Ukraine launched a significant drone attack on Moscow overnight. Russia acknowledged the attack and closed three of Moscow's four airports to activate air defenses that it claims shot down 144 Ukrainian drones. •Ukraine claimed Moscow also launched a reciprocal drone attack on Kyiv. Mexico •Mexico's upper chamber is weighing a controversial constitutional change that will swap 7,000 judges with new, popularly-elected replacements. •The proposal was easily passed in the lower chamber last week, and there are rumors that enough upper chamber swing legislators have swung in favor of the amendment and are ready to pass it. •AMLO is pitching the change as a much-needed judicial reform, but the plan's myriad critics say it will expose judges to stronger political influence from Morena leaders - or worse, from bad actors like drug cartels. Other News •Fresh off local elections that resulted in big gains for the far right - and smarting from two deadly stabbings committed by rejected asylees - Germany said it would expand border patrols and strengthen a "hard line" on illegal migration. •Separately, Australia's government announced plans to ban children from social media - though it didn't confirm where the age cutoff would be.
Open source reportOff Leash update 6 Sept Venezuela •Venezuela's opposition leader Maria Corina Machado gave an online press conference in which she told international journalists what they already knew: "Everyone knows that [opposition candidate] Edmundo González is the president-elect." •Machado also called on the U.S. to "do much more" to punish Pres. Maduro for his false claim to the presidency. •A State Department spokesman responded blandly: "We are considering a range of options to demonstrate to Maduro and his representatives that their misgovernance in Venezuela has consequences." China •During this week's Forum on China-Africa Co-operation, Pres. Xi promised African countries 360 billion yuan ($51 billion) in financing over the three years until the next triennial Forum. •He also committed one billion yuan ($141 million) to training African armies, which is a small sliver of the $2 billion the Pentagon spends on its African operations - including AFRICOM as well as assistance and training programs. •Xi hopes to present Chinese funding as an alternative to Western support. He told the African leaders gathered at the Beijing Forum: "the Western approach to [modernization] has inflicted immense sufferings on developing countries." •Separately, China said it would stop allowing foreigners to adopt Chinese babies unless they're blood relatives or step relatives of the adoptee. With a declining birth rate, Beijing probably hopes to keep enough young'uns working in China to support an aging population. Ukraine •Speaking at an international audience in Vladivostock, Pres. Putin brushed off concerns about Ukraine's invasion of Kursk, saying Russia's offensive in eastern Ukraine is its "first-priority goal." •He chided Ukraine for sending "fairly large and well-trained units" into Kursk: "The enemy’s goal was to make us nervous and worry and to transfer troops from one sector to another and stop our offensive in key areas, primarily in the Donbas. Did it work or no? No." (The U.S. and Ukraine both said small numbers of Russian troops were transferred to Kursk - but it wasn't the large redeployment Ukraine hoped for). •Separately, Ukraine accused Russia of executing three Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) as they sought to surrender in Donetsk. Ukraine's Prosecutor General's Office says it's investigating 54 such cases of Russian troops executing Ukrainian POWs over the course of the war. Israel •Israel ended its operation targeting Islamic Jihad militants in Jenin after nine days. It was one of the most significant recent Israeli operations in the West Bank. •Israel said it targeted militants preparing attacks on Israeli civilians, and indeed, most (but not all) of the 21 Palestinians killed during the operation were claimed by Hamas, Fatah, or Islamic Jihad as fighters. Sudan •A UN-backed team in Sudan concluded that both sides - the Rapid Support Forces and the military - may have committed war crimes and crimes against humanity, and recommended an arms embargo and a UN peacekeeping force. The UAE has been supporting the Rapid Support Forces, and will object to UN peacekeeper scrutiny. Electric Vehicles •Volvo ditched its plans to produce only electric vehicles (EVs) by 2030 amidst a slowdown in demand for EVs. Instead, it said only 10% or less of its cars would be "mild hybrids" by 2030 - but reiterated that "our future is electric." •Volvo isn't the only EV maker scaling back its ambitions as the market for EV cools. Toyota also reduced its EV production target for 2030 by one third.
Open source reportOff Leash update 5 Sep Gaza •A senior U.S. official blamed two obstacles holding up a final ceasefire proposal: a list of Palestinian prisoners Israel will release (Hamas has been greedy in demanding more liberations than Israel wants to allow), and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Philadelphi Corridor (which PM Netanyahu has refused to accept). Ukraine •Some critics are complaining about Pres. Zelensky's cabinet reshuffle. They accuse Zelensky of trying to consolidate power by stacking key posts with close allies who will rubber-stamp his decisions. Ukraine's Parliament is expected to approve his shakeup anyway. Russia •Russia sentenced Alexander Shiplyuk - the director of a physics institute specializing in the hypersonic and supersonic technologies propelling Russian missiles in Ukraine - to 15 years in prison for treason for sharing classified information. •Shipluk is only the latest in a series of convictions of top Russian scientists for (per their colleagues and supporters) merely exchanging scientific knowledge with foreign colleagues - as scientists doing industry-leading work must do. •Separately, the U.S. indicted two employees of Russia's state-owned RT news agency for spreading disinformation to try to influence the U.S. election, and is preparing more sanctions over election disinformation (in addition to Russia, U.S. officials also accuse Iran of sowing election disinformation). Venezuela •Venezuela detained a U.S. Navy sailor who was "on some sort of personal travel" to the country without official approval from the Navy (which I imagine wouldn't have been forthcoming). The circumstances of his detention are unclear; often when U.S. servicemen are detained abroad, they're dual or former citizens of the country detaining them and had returned to visit family. DRC •DRC will get its first 100,000 doses of mpox vaccines today, followed by a second shipment on Saturday. The logistics of administering vaccines across the country will be much more complicated than getting doses to Kinshasa: the earliest vaccinations could start is Oct. 8.
Open source reportOff Leash update 4 Sept Venezuela •In a bid to distract Venezuelans while he tries to steal the presidency, Pres. Maduro announced that Christmas in Venezuela will take place almost three months early this year, on October 1. •Maduro has pre-poned Christmas twice before - in 2021 and 2023 - both to boost the economy by injecting bonuses for public employees and holiday handouts for supporters. This year's early holiday will bring the added benefit of rewarding loyal supporters for turning a blind eye to his election theft. •Cynical Venezuelans complain that holding Christmas early won't make it any merrier: either way, they can't afford gifts or holiday feasts because of runaway inflation under Maduro's bad economic policies. •The Venezuelan Episcopal Conference also wasn't joyous about the date change: it issued a statement reiterating that "Christmas commences on December 25" and chiding that Jesus's birthday "is not to be used for political or propaganda goals." Ukraine •Russia targeted a Ukrainian military academy and nearby hospital in Poltava, killing at least 51 people - including many cadets. •Poltava is around 100 miles (160 km) from the Russian border, and the supersonic missiles flew so fast that air raid sirens sounded only minutes before the attack, giving cadets and residents insufficient time to reach shelter. Many of those killed were on their way to a shelter when they were struck down. •More Russian missiles struck the city of Lviv on the Polish border overnight, killing at least seven. •Separately, Foreign Minister Kuleba resigned as part of Pres. Zelensky's reshuffle to "strengthen some areas in the government" ahead of "an extremely important autumn." Rumors suggest Kuleba will be replaced by Andriy Sybiha, a career diplomat who's currently the deputy head of Zelensky's office. Gaza •The U.S. Justice Department unsealed indictments charging Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and five other senior Hamas members for a wide range of crimes against American citizens, including - but also predating - the Oct. 7 attacks. •The charges are mostly symbolic - and three of those indicted are already dead anyway - but the indictments would allow the U.S. to put Sinwar and the other two on trial if they survive the war and are apprehended. China •China retaliated against Canada's new tariffs on cheap Chinese electric vehicle (EV) exports by launching a dumping inquiry into Canadian rapeseed (canola), which is a far more important export market for Canada than EVs. Over half of Canada's exported canola goes to China, earning Canada C$5 billion ($3.7 billion) in sales. Ottawa called the probe "deeply concerning." •Separately, New York accused an ex-gubernatorial aide of acting as a foreign agent for China by accepting Chinese money for political favors like denying Taiwanese officials meetings with the governor and other officials. Iraq •U.S. and Iraqi commandos carried out an unusual joint raid on Islamic State militants hiding out in Anbar, killing at least 15 jihadists - including some senior leaders. At least six U.S. soldiers suffered injuries. Libya •Libya's rival legislatures agreed to appoint a mutually agreeable candidate to lead the central bank within 30 days, raising hope for an end to the bank's leadership crisis. •Oil markets are optimistic that they'll resolve their dispute and Libya will start pumping oil again: oil prices fell 4% on weak demand and the prospect of Libyan oil reentering an already-oversupplied market. Other News •Romania, Hungary, Georgia, and Azerbaijan kicked off an ambitious project to lay a power line under the Black Sea to bring energy from Azerbaijan's Caspian wind farms to the EU. •The project was approved in 2022 and became urgent quickly after Russia invaded Ukraine, forcing the EU to seek alternate energy supplies.
Open source reportOff Leash update 3 Sept Venezuela •A Venezuelan court issued an arrest warrant for Edmundo Gonzalez - the opposition candidate who defeated Pres. Maduro in the July 28 presidential election - on charges of "usurpation," conspiracy, and sabotage. •The usurpation charge is particularly curious, given that Gonzalez has a very legitimate claim to the presidency Maduro accuses him of trying to usurp: the opposition's online tallies showed that Gonzalez received over twice as many votes as Pres. Maduro (67% vs. 30%), which is consistent with exit polls and pre-election independent surveys. [Maduro and his allies have refused to provide evidence for their dubious claims that Maduro won 52% of the vote.] •The arrest warrant is a significant escalation in Maduro's campaign to silence the opposition, but not an unexpected one: Maduro and his close allies have increasingly called for the arrest of Gonzalez and opposition leader Maria Corina Machado (who won the opposition's primary but was banned from running against Maduro herself). •Gonzalez and Machado are both in hiding but continue their campaign from there. Machado reacted to the warrant on Gonzalex on X: "Threatening the President-elect will only achieve more cohesion and increase the support of Venezuelans and the world for Edmundo Gonzalez." •Separately, the U.S. seized Maduro's Dassault Falcon 900EX from the Dominican Republic and brought it to Florida. •The U.S. Department of Justice justified seizing the plane - which CNN called "Venezuela's Air Force One" - on grounds that it was bought illegally through a shell company and "smuggled" to Venezuela "for use by Nicolás Maduro and his cronies" in violation of international sanctions. Gaza •PM Netanyahu defiantly withstood pressure from over 100,000 protesters who demonstrated across Israel for a ceasefire deal to secure the release of ~70 surviving Israeli hostages still in Hamas's hands. •Netanyahu rejected the idea of making "concessions" to secure a deal, and told a press conference the war will only end "when Hamas no longer rules Gaza." •Israel's largest trade union - representing over 800,000 people - had called its first strike since Oct. 7 in support of a deal, but it quickly complied with a court order to end the strike the day it started. •While a ceasefire remains as elusive as ever, there was a tiny bit of good news from Gaza: the WHO's polio vaccination campaign is remarkably running ahead of schedule - despite the backdrop of an ongoing war. Around a quarter of Gazan children under 10 have already been vaccinated since innoculations started on Sunday. Russia •Pres. Putin landed in Mongolia today, marking the first time he's set foot in a member state of the International Criminal Court (ICC) since the ICC issued a warrant for his arrest. ICC member states are obligated to carry out the court's arrest warrants when a subject enters their territory. •Mongolia declined to execute the ICC's warrant for Putin's arrest, and offered him a red carpet welcome instead. •Putin was clearly confident that Mongolia's reliance on Russian fuel would trump its (unenforceable) ICC obligations. Ahead of his arrival in Mongolia, a Kremlin spokesman brushed off concerns that he could be arrested there: "There are no worries, we have a great dialogue with our friends from Mongolia." DRC •Inmates at Kinshasa's Makala prison attempted a jailbreak early yesterday under the cover of a large fire, but guards quickly regained control by shooting at least 24 prisoners dead. Another 80 or more died in the stampede or from smoke inhalation. Libya •The UN brought Libya's rival sides together for talks on resolving their dispute over the central bank's leadership. Mediators claimed the two sides achieved "significant" understanding and agreed to submit proposals for a resolution for review today. That seems too quick to come up with a solution to a dispute that's been simmering for over a decade.
Open source reportOff Leash update 29 Aug Venezuela •One of Venezuela's top election officials, Juan Carlos Delpino, directly discredited Pres. Maduro's account of the vote for the first time this week. •Delpino - who is one of two opposition-aligned members of the five-person National Electoral Council (CNE) responsible for organizing elections and certifying their results - told the NYT that his council "had not received any evidence" that Maduro won a majority of the vote, and lamented that the CNE had "failed the country." He spoke from hiding, fearing for his safety. •His fear is reasonable: Maduro's security forces continue to arrest Venezuelans who dare support the opposition. Perkins Rocha - opposition leader Marina Corina Machado's lawyer and close confidante - was among those arrested this week. •With Diosdado Cabello now appointed Minister for the Interior, Justice, and Peace; we can expect the crackdown to worsen: Cabello has previously said that Machado and opposition president-elect Edmundo Gonzalez should be "behind bars." Israel •Hamas said the 10 Palestinians Israel killed in its West Bank operations Tuesday and Wednesday were among its members. •There's a polio outbreak in Gaza, and the UN hopes to innoculate 640,000 Palestinian children with vaccines to stop the spread of the virus - starting this weekend. •Israel reportedly authorized temporary and localized humanitarian pauses in the fighting in Gaza to facilitate vaccinations, but evacuations, displacement, and ongoing fighting will certainly complicate the process. Yemen •Iran says its Houthi proxies in Yemen have agreed to a truce to let rescuers assess the Sounion oil tanker its missiles damaged and set alight. However, the Houthis say they only agreed to allow a tugboat to come tow the ailing - and possibly leaking - Sounion away. Either way, we'll soon learn how big of an environmental risk the damaged tanker is. Ukraine •Ukraine used F-16s to shoot down incoming Russian cruise missiles on Monday, marking the first aerial kills by the new (to Ukraine) jets. •Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Norway have pledged a total of 85 F-16s for Ukraine; because only a few of them have arrived so far, Ukraine is only using the few it has against targets like these cruise missiles that can't shoot back. •Separately, Ukrainian drones targeted the Zenit oil depot deep inside Russia's Kirov region, causing two fires. It's the first time Ukraine has struck Kirov, which is 700 miles (1,125 km) inside Russia. Russia •In response to new U.S. sanctions against Russia, Russia permanently banned 92 U.S. citizens - including journalists, lawyers, professors, and business executives - from entering the country. •Among those banned were 14 WSJ employees, including WSJ editor in chief Emma Tucker. Given the 16 months their colleague Evan Gershkovich spent in Russian jail before he was finally released in a swap last month, I doubt anyone from the WSJ was eager to visit Russia anytime soon anyway. Other News •French authorities charged Telegram founder Pavel Durov with a slew of crimes related to illegal activity others committed on his platform. He was released on bail of €5 million ($5.5 million) and barred from leaving the country. Free speech advocates and tech companies are preturbed that the creator of an online forum can be held liable for crimes others use it to commit.
Open source reportOff Leash update 26 Aug Coming Up This Week •The U.S. Open tennis tournament starts today in New York, and the Paralympics begin Wednesday in Paris. •Thursday is the 75th anniversary of the first Soviet atomic bomb test - and also the international day against nuclear weapons testing. Three countries - India, Pakistan, and North Korea - have not signed the 1996 Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty prohibiting testing, and five - China, Egypt, Iran, Israel, and the U.S. - have signed but not ratified it. •Sunday is the 85th anniversary of the start of World War II. •Azerbaijan and Germany both hold parliamentary elections on Sunday. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,542/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $24,500/ton •Cobalt: $24,300/ton •Copper: $9,289/ton •Gold: $2,512/toz •Lead: $2,117/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.02/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $74.83/barrel •Zinc: $2,912/ton Israel and Gaza •Hamas sent a delegation to peace talks in Cairo, but they left early after rejecting Israel's demand for an ongoing Israeli presence in the Philadelphi Corridor. •Meanwhile in the north, Israel and Hezbollah exchanged much heavier gunfire than usual, briefly raising concerns about a broader regional war. Then both sides abruptly pulled back after proving what seemed like symbolic points. •Hezbollah called its strikes a "complete success" and Israel also seemed satisfied that its "pre-emptive" strikes succeeded in weakening Hezbollah's barrage. Venezuela •The EU issued a gently-worded condemnation of Pres. Maduro's election theft, calling on Venezuela's National Electoral Council (CNE) to release official voting records (or actas), and pointing out that - given currently publicly-available actas - "Edmundo González Urrutia would appear to be the winner of the presidential election by a significant majority." •Maduro and the CNE have ignored much more strongly-worded critiques than that, so the EU's diplomatic comments are unlikely to change their thinking. Sudan •Sudan's junta leader, Gen. Abdel Fatah Al Burhan, vowed to "fight for 100 years." •His side didn't show up to peace talks in Geneva, which ended on Friday without a deal. However, army representatives participated by phone, and the two sides were able to make some minor progress on improving aid flows. Russia •The U.S. slapped sanctions on 63 Russian, 42 Chinese, and 18 third-country firms for supporting Russia's war in Ukraine. Some of the targeted firms helped send U.S. military and dual-use technology to Russia, while others helped supply Russia with parts to make other military kit and weapons, including Shahed-136 drones. •Four prisoners claiming allegiance to Islamic State laid seige to a prison in Volgograd (southern Russia), killing four prison guards and taking 12 people - eight guards and four fellow inmates - hostage before snipers "liquidated" the hostage-takers. Ukraine •Ukraine traded 115 of the Russian prisoners it took in Kursk for 115 Ukrainian prisoners of war. •It was the first prisoner swap since Ukraine began its Kursk incursion. A Washington Post analysis concluded that Ukraine has captured at least another 132 Russian prisoners in Kursk that it could trade in a future swap; most seem to be new conscripts with little fighting experience. •Russia launched a massive wave of drone attacks on Kyiv and northwestern Ukraine this morning, targeting infrastructure. Air defenses are active, but imperfect: the Russian strikes damaged at least one building in Lutsk and caused widespread power and water outages in several areas. •Separately, a Russian Iskander-M missile struck a hotel in Donetsk housing journalists, killing one British safety advisor for Reuters and injuring six others - including three more foreigners. 1/
Open source reportOff Leash update 21 August Venezuela •Despite global weekend protests against Pres. Maduro's theft of last month's election, Maduro hasn't budged. The Carnegie Endowment wrote that Maduro "has dug in and is waiting for global attention to move elsewhere." •If he's allowed to stay, an analysis by Meganalisis suggests that over 40% of Venezuela's remaining population of seven million may flee the country by the end of this year. •That would put significant pressure on Venezuela's neighbors - especially Colombia and Brazil, who have suggested holding new elections instead of pushing Maduro to accept the results of the election he lost. Iran •A senior Iranian official said Iran may wait "a long time" to respond to Israel's assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil last month. Analysts read between the lines to interpret that statement to mean Iran's response has been put on hold. Gaza •SecState Blinken left Egypt without a ceasefire deal, and Pres. Biden told the Democratic National Convention that Hamas is "now backing away" from a deal. •An headline in Israel's Haaretz claims Israel didn't actually accept the latest proposal either - "The U.S. Somehow Heard Netanyahu Say 'Yes' to a Gaza Deal. He Didn't" - suggesting the U.S.'s "best chance" bridging proposal never really had much of a chance. •Nonetheless, some mediators remain hopeful that talks will resume this week. •Meanwhile, the Israeli army recovered the bodies of six hostages in a long (>1 mile / >1.6 km) tunnel in Khan Younis. All but one had already been confirmed dead. Ukraine •Pres. Zelensky pleaded with the West to drop its "red lines" prohibiting certain Western weapons from being used inside Russia. •The Western prohibitions were mainly intended to ensure Ukraine doesn't use donated weapons offensively, since doing so could risk Russian retaliation against the west. However, as The Economist pointed out last week in an op-ed justifying Ukraine's Kursk invasion, Ukraine is "morally and legally" allowed to defend itself - "and that right does not stop at the border." •Few real prohibitions remain, anyway: most were dropped this spring after Zelensky's persistent lobbying. •Separately, Ukraine lobbed one of its largest drone volleys yet at Moscow overnight. Russia shot down at least 45 drones - including at least 11 over the Moscow region. There are no clear reports of injuries or significant damage from the drones yet. Russia •Pres. Putin visited the majority Muslim region of Chechnya for the first time in 13 years. During his unannounced visit, he inspected Chechan troops and volunteers preparing to deploy to Ukraine, telling the trainees: "As long as we have men like you, we are absolutely, absolutely invincible.: •Chechan warlord Ramzan Kadyrov claims that he's trained over 47,000 fighters to fight for Putin since the war began. North Korea •South Korea said a North Korean soldier defected early Tuesday, crossing the border on foot - an extremely risky move, given the heavy fortifications and tense trigger fingers along the border. •His was the second defection in two weeks. Analysts say the pattern could be a sign of rising economic hardship in the North - or an indication that South Korea's cross-border broadcasts are improving Northerners' access to information (and K-pop) and leading them to seek a better life in the South. Azerbaijan •Following a visit by Russia's Pres. Putin, Azerbaijan formally applied to join the BRIC bloc of fast-growing economies. •The BRICs began in 2009 with the four countries that formed its acronym - Brazil, Russia, India, China - but has since expanded to include five more countries that want to be in a bloc but don't make the cut for NATO: Egypt, South Africa, Ethiopia, UAE, and Iran.
Open source reportOff Leash update 20 August Gaza •SecState Blinken said Israel has accepted the U.S.'s "bridging proposal" for a ceasefire deal that Blinken called "probably the best, maybe the last" chance to free Israeli hostages. •However, various media reports (e.g. from Axios) suggest PM Netanyahu is only approving the updated terms - which include some of his new demands - because he knows Hamas will reject them. •Indeed, Hamas hasn't formally responded, but it complained that the current terms were biased towards Israel and include "new conditions" it can't agree to, like Israel keeping control of the Philadelphi corridor and implementing a mechanism to prevent weapons smuggling from the south of Gaza to the north. •Egyptian and Qatari mediators are less optimistic than Blinken about a deal, but Iran seems to be holding off on its threatened response to (alleged) Israeli assassinations to allow time for talks to unfold. •Meanwhile, Hamas operatives collaborated with Islamic Jihad - a fellow Palestinian militant group in Gaza - in a botched attack on Tel Aviv on Sunday night. •The militant groups said it was a suicide bombing - which would make it the first suicide bombing in Israel in eight years - however, Israeli police didn't confirm that the assailant died when his explosives detonated early. Their only reported casualty was a bystander who sustained moderate injuries. Ukraine •Ukraine destroyed the third Seim River bridge - of three that Russia could use to reinforce its defense against Ukraine's incursion into Kursk. Ukrainian Air Force commander Gen. Mykola Oleshchuk celebrated the third strike on Telegram: "Minus one more bridge!" •Those three bridges were also the main retreat routes for Russian defenders, so their destruction has left an unknown number of Russian soldiers cut off and at risk of finding themselves in "kettles," as Russia's military calls encirclement. •Pres. Putin certainly won't allow that kind of embarrassment without a rebuttal. As the NYT assessed: "Russians who know President Vladimir Putin expect him to lash out in response, believing that his military has the upper hand." •Putin has already ordered a regiment of his Aerospace Forces to Kursk. China •Chinese and Philippine coast guard vessels collided early yesterday morning near Sabina Shoal in part of the disputed Spratly Islands that China, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Taiwan all claim. As usual, both sides blamed the other for the collision. •The two sides had just signed what the Philippines called a "preliminary understanding" to prevent future confrontations like this in the South China Sea. •After accusing China of ramming its boats yesterday, a Philippine official said, "we are of course disappointed again." Afghanistan •A deputy spokesman for the Taliban government reiterated the Taliban's claim that it's in full control of security within Afghanistan and there are no terrorist groups operating in the country. •Afghanistan's neighbors don't believe that. Pakistan has suffered numerous cross-border attacks by militants taking refuge in Afghanistan, and Iran plans to complete an ambitious program to secure its 200 mile (330 km) border with Afghanistan later this year.
Open source reportOff Leash update 13 Aug Russia •The acting governor of Kursk told Pres. Putin that invading Ukrainian forces now control 28 towns and villages in the Russian border region, and Russia's defense ministry acknowledged the Ukrainians have advanced about 30 km into Russian territory. •Ukraine's top commander claimed his forces now control "about 1,000 square kilometers" (390 square miles) of Russia. •The incursion seems to be getting to Putin. Speaking outside his residence, he complained: "The West is fighting us with the hands of the Ukrainians. The enemy will certainly get the response he deserves, and all our goals, without doubt, will be accomplished." •Putin ordered his military to join the border guard's effort to push Ukrainian forces back across the border, suggesting the border guard alone isn't capable of repelling the invaders. •The NYT assessed that the Ukrainian incursion has two goals: "to draw Russian forces from the front lines in eastern Ukraine and to seize territory that could serve as a bargaining chip in future peace negotiations." Venezuela •Pres. Maduro ordered his defense council to intensify a crackdown on the opposition with "greater speed, greater efficiency and an iron fist." •Maduro has also recently urged Venezuelans to report on their peers who express skepticism about his official (but fraudulent) election results using a state-run app designed for reporting power outages. He additionally ordered upgrades to two prisons to house more political inmates swept up in the crackdown. •Election winner Edmundo Gonzalez and opposition leader Maria Corina Machado remain in hiding, citing fears for their safety and the threat of arrest on outstanding orders - especially after Maduro called them out by name again yesterday ("Where is Mr Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia? Why did he flee? why does he not show his face? Where is the greatest fascist, Mrs Machado, who ordered to kill, who ordered to assassinate?"). •The opposition is organizing global protests against Maduro's stolen election on Saturday, Aug. 17. Iran •The White House expects Iran to stage "a significant set of attacks" in the coming days or weeks in retaliation for the killings of top Hamas and Hezbollah leaders last month. •In response to the Iranian threat, the Pentagon took the unusual step of publicizing the destination of one of its nuclear-powered guided missile submarines: the USS Georgia is heading from the Mediterranean to the Middle East "in light of escalating regional tensions." •The USS Lincoln carrier strike group will also "accelerate" its planned journey from the Indo-Pacific to the Middle East. Gaza •Hamas acknowledged that its guards killed one male hostage and seriously injured two female hostages in two separate incidents. It didn't identify the victims or elaborate on the circumstances, and Israel hasn't been able to corroborate the scant info Hamas offered. •This was the first time Hamas acknowledged that its own militants have harmed hostages: in the past, it blamed Israeli strikes or ground operations for hostage casualties. China •Hong Kong's top court refused to overturn the conviction of former media mogul Jimmy Lai for unlawful assembly during pro-democracy demonstrations. Lai has already served his time on those charges, but remains in solitary confinement on more serious national security charges related to the demonstrations. DRC •Zambia and DRC have already agreed to reopen their shared border following a brief trade spat. The closure lasted only three days because they need each other: Zambia is DRC's second-largest source of imports and DRC is Zambia's fifth-largest.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 7 Aug Bangladesh •Student protesters in Bangladesh demanded that Pres. Shahabuddin ask Nobel peace prize winner Muhammad Yunus to lead the interim government after PM Hasina fled the country. •Yunus - who founded Grameen Bank, the world's first major microfinance lender, and was persecuted under Hasina's government - immediately agreed. •China finally bowed to U.S. pressure and enacted restrictions on three chemicals used to make fentanyl. •An estimated 100,000+ people (perhaps far more) Americans died from synthetic opioid overdoses in 2023, and China is one of the main sources of the chemicals used to make synthetic opioids. That's why the Biden administration has sought China's cooperation against fentanyl trafficking for almost three years. •These new chemical restrictions aren't a perfect solution, but they're a start. However, analysts believe China will point to this minor concession to demand larger U.S. concessions on issues it cares more about, like reducing tariffs or relaxing rules on exporting sensitive tech to China. •Separately, China used a Long March 6A carrier rocket to launch the first 18 of the "Thousand Sails" internet satellites that will eventually form a 15,000-satellite constellation to rival SpaceX's Starlink. Venezuela •Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico are urging Pres. Maduro and the opposition to respect Venezuelan law and lodge their appeals over the election Maduro stole through the appropriate channels (which include courts Maduro has stacked). •While that's not as forceful of a statement against the stolen election as other world powers have made, it's still significant that the three leftist-led countries have declined to recognize Maduro's re-election. It would be bolder of them to reject it - as the U.S. and EU have done. •The NYT reported that Maduro thought he had the election locked up, but was then surprised when supporters turned against him and voted for the opposition instead. •Maduro bizarrely blamed "international Zionism" for what he called a "coup d'etat" in the media's coverage of the election, which consistently shows him losing the vote. He still shows no inclination to admit his official stats are wrong. Gaza •Hamas appointed Yahya Sinwar - a bellicose senior figure thought to be the architect of the Oct. 7 attacks - to succeed Ismail Haniyeh as the group's political leader. •That collapses the chances of a near-term peace deal to near zero. •Roughly 300 Ukrainian (and pro-Ukrainian Russian) fighters in U.S.-made Stryker vehicles launched an incursion into Kursk, Russia yesterday morning, marking the largest Ukrainian attack on Russia since the war began. A Forbes staff op-ed called the operation "pointless" and "a shameful waste of precious military resources." •Russia says it repelled the incursion, but it reported three "civilian" deaths and at least 18 injuries. Ukraine says its fighters took out two T-62 tanks and a Kamov Ka-52 helicopter (with its crew), and took a few prisoners. Some reports say it's not over yet. •Separately, The Economist estimated that Russia's summer onslaught is forcing Ukraine to retreat by up to one kilometer per day. Sahel •Niger joined its fellow junta state, Mali, in cutting off diplomatic ties with Ukraine after Ukraine's alleged support for Tuareg rebels that embarrassed the Wagner mercenaries fighting alongside Malian soldiers in the north late last month. •Ukraine tacitly acknowledged supporting the Tuaregs, saying the rebels "received all the necessary information they needed" to locate and fight the Wagner-backed soldiers. •Russia didn't refer to the Tuaregs by name, but as "armed terrorist groups." That's misleading, because they're mostly ethnic Berber nomads and not Al Qaeda or Islamic State-aligned jihadists. But calling them "terrorists" helps Russia portray the Mali battle as part of the "Africa front" it accuses Ukraine of opening in their war.
Open source reportOff Leash update 12 July Gaza •The Pentagon said it would give up on the floating pier it built off the coast of Gaza to land aid deliveries. •The pier - which cost $230 million to build - received few aid deliveries in its short lifespan - it only operated for about 20 days of the two months since it was first installed - and suffered damage from rough seas on multiple occasions. (Editor's note: this debacle is especially foul for me as before USG blundered in I was asked by a significant NGO to build a logistics and security plan for supply Gaza. The maritime portion for our plan was only $10m and that included buying two landing craft with cranes and a 120meter spud barge that we would have pinned to the beach with large pilings. The LCs would cycle from 13 miles out (outside Gaza/Israeli waters) to offload by crane into barge pinned to beach. Not elegant but sufficient. The consistent fail of "Team America" is embarrassing and must be corrected.) •Meanwhile, Israeli Defense Minister Gallant estimated that Israel has killed 60% of Hamas terrorists in its nine-month war in Gaza. •Gallant also called for an official inquiry into Israel's failures leading up - and responding - to the Oct. 7 attacks, and specifically suggested the inquiry should investigate PM Netanyahu and Gallant himself. Netanyahu has resisted the idea of conducting such an inquiry before the war is over. Russia •U.S. intelligence uncovered a secret Russian plot to assassinate the (civilian) CEO of German weapons manufacturer Rheinmetall because of his company's role producing artillery shells and tanks for Ukraine. •News of the plot outraged German and EU leaders, but Russia dismissed the accusations, saying they lacked "serious documentation" (as *secret* plots often do). •Separately, a Russian-born Australian army private and her husband - also a Russian-born Australian - became the first people arrested under Australia's modernized 2018 espionage laws. Australian prosecutors allege the couple "worked together to access Australian Defence Force material that related to Australia’s national security interests." Sudan •Reports earlier this week suggested Sudan's two warring strongmen - Gen. al Burhan and Hemedti - were close to relaunching peace talks in Jeddah, but Gen. al Burhan seemed to squash that idea with an impossible pre-condition: he wants Hemedti's RSF to fully withdraw from Sudan's cities before talks take place. Sahel •Niger's junta acknowledged that several prisoners escaped from a jail in the restive Tillaberi region known to hold Al Qaeda- and Islamic State-linked jihadists. •It was the first successful jailbreak from this particular facility - although guards repelled two prior attempts in 2016 and 2019. Authorities don't know exactly how many prisoners escaped, but they placed the surrounding area under a strict curfew in an attempt to track down the escapees. Other News •Kenya's Pres. Ruto fired 14 of his 15 cabinet ministers in a belated response to nationwide protests against his government and new taxes it sought to impose (but walked back after they proved unpopular). That may be too little, too late for the protesters, who had demanded Ruto's resignation too.
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 July Russia •A Russian court issued an arrest warrant for murdered dissident Alexey Navalny's widow, Yulia Navalnaya, for "participating in an extremist community." •Navalnaya left Russia in 2021, and has continued to champion her late husband's opposition ("extremist") causes from abroad. She's also editing a manuscript about his political career that he wrote in prison, which will be published and released in the U.S. in October. She was already unlikely to return to Russia; with this warrant outstanding, she definitely won't. •Separately, the U.S. FBI shut down a Russian "bot farm" that used artificial intelligence to post pro-Putin disinformation in the U.S. and elsewhere. The shuttered entity created two websites and almost 1,000 X (fka Twitter) accounts with all-American pseudonyms like "Sue Williamson" purporting to be normal apple pie-eating folks who think Putin is just swell. Gaza •An Israeli strike on a school building in southern Gaza reportedly killed at least 25 people. Israel said it was targeting a militant who had participated in the Oct. 7 attacks - and who was apparently sheltering behind displaced Gazans in the school building. •The UN estimates that over 80% of Gaza's schools have been severely damaged or destroyed in the war - often because militants like this one seek refuge in them. •Finally, Al-Monitor reported that PM Netanyahu's four "non-negotiable" demands for a ceasefire deal are causing problems for Egyptian mediators, who are trying to find common ground that Hamas and Israel can agree on. Netanyahu's demands are new and far removed from the slim common ground Hamas can reasonably accede to. Iran •Analysts agree that President-elect Pezeshkian won't be able to effect real policy changes in Iran's rigid theocracy, but the NYT hopes he'll at least be able to "shift the tone" and "tilt Iran away from the hard-line policies such as the mandatory hijab, which led to widespread discontent, an uprising and harsh crackdowns by the authorities." •While campaigning, Pezeshkian also indicated he's willing to negotiate with the U.S. to alleviate sanctions: "Why should we be fighting with the whole world?" [Of course, he'll only be allowed to negotiate within the narrow bounds Ayatollah Khamenei and the clerics set for him.] •Separately, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines reported that Iran has been provoking and funding U.S.-based anti-Israel protests over Gaza to stoke political opposition to the war. In many cases, Iran-linked agents pose as online activists to agitate distrust in U.S. policy. China •Japanese observers spotted China's Shandong Carrier Group operating in the Philippine Sea for the first time this year (it deployed there three times last year). Its deployments always make Japan uneasy, and Japanese jets scrambled in response to this one, too. Electric Vehicles •Tesla's U.S. electric vehicle (EV) market share fell below 50% for the first time in the second quarter. Overall EV sales were up 11% year-over-year. Ford and GM also had strong quarterly sales.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 8 July Coming Up This Week •India's PM Modi will meet Pres. Putin in Moscow today. It will be Modi's first visit to Russia since Russia invaded Ukraine - and his first trip abroad since he was reelected. He hopes to secure the release of Indian nationals who India says were "duped" into serving in the Russian army. •NATO meets for its 75th anniversary summit in Washington tomorrow through Thursday. •Sunday is a big day in sports: the UEFA 2024 final, the Copa America final, and the men's Wimbledon final all take place on the same day. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,535/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $22,700/ton •Cobalt: $27.150/ton •Copper: $9,944/ton •Gold: $2,378/toz •Lead: $2,237/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.32/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $82.69/barrel •Zinc: $3,001/ton Iran •Reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian won Iran's runoff presidential election. •Pezeshkian seeks warmer relations with the West via experienced diplomats who he hopes will negotiate a softening of sanctions. •However, Iran's presidency has little power to effect real change, and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei - who truly calls the shots - doesn't want change. Analysts say he'll block Pezeshkian's efforts to warm up to the West. •Turnout was around 50% - much higher than the record low 40% logged in the first round. Israel and Gaza •Thousands of Israelis staged anti-government protests across the country yesterday. Demonstrators want fresh elections as well as a ceasefire deal with Hamas to free Israeli hostages. •There's a sliver of a chance that they'll get their wish on the ceasefire deal: Hamas finally dropped its opposition to one of Israel's key demands and indicated that it could agree to release some hostages during an initial six-week ceasefire before further peace talks hash out the long-run plan. •There are still some big obstacles blocking a final agreement, but this removes one of them. That said, Hamas still wants assurances that Israel will commit to continue peace talks after the first round of hostages are released - and Israel has already said it can't agree to that (it wants the option to resume fighting if necessary). •Meanwhile, an Israel strike killed Ehab Al-Ghussein, a senior Hamas administrator, in a Gaza City school where he was sheltering with civilians. Ukraine and Russia •Hungary's Viktor Orban retroactively announced that he had met with Russia's Pres. Putin in Moscow and China's Pres. Xi in Beijing following his surprise talks with Ukraine's Pres. Zelensky in Kyiv. •Orban portrayed his haphazard outreach as a victory for diplomacy: "Hungary is slowly becoming the only country in Europe that can speak to everyone." •Others would say Hungary is the only country in Europe still willing to talk to Putin. NATO SecGen Jens Stoltenberg sought to downplay Orban's visit to Moscow as unrepresentative of NATO's position on Russia: "different NATO allies interact with Moscow in different ways." China •China sailed its largest coast guard vessel into the Philippines' exclusive economic zone and anchored it there, leading the Philippines to (fairly) accuse it of "intimidation." Afghanistan •The Taliban shifted some senior government officials around: the acting Central Bank (Da Afghanistan Bank) head, Hedayatullah Badri, is now Minister of Mines and Petroleum, replacing Shahabuddin Delawar, who will become the acting head of the Afghan Red Crescent Society. Other News •France's legislative elections yesterday resulted in a hung parliament - and a clear loss for Pres. Macron, whose party and coalition lost a third of its seats to both the far-left and the far-right.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 5 July Iran •Analysts are struggling to predict the outcome of today's runoff presidential election in Iran. •On one hand, conservatives have consolidated their support behind hardline candidate Saeed Jalili. •But on the other, many moderates who fear the consequences of a hardline president are turning out to support Jalili's reformist rival, Dr. Masoud Pezeshkian. •Turnout for today's runoff seems much higher than the record low level of 40% set in the first round. Mozambique •The South African Development Community (SADC) announced the end of its peacekeeping mission in Cabo Delgado. •The three-year mission achieved mixed results: it initially succeeded in reducing the capacity of militant groups to carry out attacks and making the region safe for displaced residents to return home, but the pace of attacks began to rise again in late 2023, causing renewed displacement. •The SADC mission also failed to fulfill its mandate to train Mozambican security forces because it couldn't identify what kind of training the local forces needed. •Those questionably-trained Mozambican security forces will now take over responsibility for the region's security from the withdrawing SADC mission. DRC •A DRC military court sentenced 25 soldiers to death for "fleeing the enemy, dissipating munitions of war and violating orders" after running away from a battle with M23 rebels. •While Congolese soldiers are fleeing the fight, the better-disciplined (and Rwanda-backed) M23 has been able to gain the upper hand and capture several strategic towns in recent weeks. Sahel •Junta leaders from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger will meet for the first-ever "Alliance of Sahel States" (AES, en français) summit in Niamey this weekend. •The AES countries have a lot to talk about: all three were booted from the regional ECOWAS bloc because of their coups, so they're now hoping to replace the economic and defense benefits it enjoyed from that alliance by forming a parallel bloc. •They even timed their first AES summit to coincide with ECOWAS's next meeting, which takes place in Abuja on Sunday. •Separately, U.S. troops will complete their withdrawal from Niamey Air Base 101 on Sunday. The remaining U.S. troops in Niger will withdraw - per the junta's demand - by September 15. Gaza and Israel •U.S. and Israeli officials renewed whispers of hope for a ceasefire deal with Hamas after a "breakthrough" in talks. However, even optimistic U.S. officials conceded there are still some major obstacles standing in the way of a truce. •Meanwhile farther north, Israel killed a Hezbollah commander in a drone strike, and Hezbollah retaliated by firing a volley of rockets into Israel as an "initial response." Other News •Disgruntled British voters overthrew the Conservative party after a 14-year reign. Former human rights lawyer Keir Starmer will be the new Prime Minister. •Former PM Liz Truss - who was PM for exactly as many days as David Blaine lived in a glass box suspended over the Thames River - was one of the senior Tory MPs who lost her seat.
Open source reportOff Leash update 12 June Hezbollah •An Israeli strike in southern Lebanon killed four Hezbollah commanders, including a very senior one, Taleb Abdallah (aka Abu Taleb). Hezbollah then retaliated by firing a barrage of around 150 rockets into northern Israel. •The NYT assessed that Israel's strikes in Lebanon are designed to push Hezbollah back across the Litani river so that its rockets are farther out of striking range - and so that over 150,000 displaced civilians can eventually populate a buffer zone at the border. Gaza •Hamas submitted a formal response to the U.S.-pitched (but Israeli-originated) ceasefire proposal, and SecState Blinken - who has been shuttling around the Middle East trying to rally support for the plan - exasperatedly acknowledged that some of the changes Hamas demanded in its response were not "workable." •Hamas and a smaller Gazan militant group aligned with Hamas (Palestinian Islamic Jihad) said they were prepared to "deal positively to arrive at an agreement," but Blinken's unmasked disappointment with Hamas's response suggests there's still a big gap between the two sides. •Israel hasn't formally accepted the proposal either, but SecState Blinken said PM Netanyahu had privately "reaffirmed his commitment to the proposal" on Monday. Netanyahu prefers to stall and see if Hamas kills the proposal first - rather than risk losing his right-wing coalition partners by signing a deal Hamas won't accept anyway. •Separately, an independent UN investigation found both Israel and Hamas guilty of committing war crimes, and additionally accused Israel of crimes against humanity for killing tens of thousands of civilians (who Hamas militants are using as human shields). Israel responded to the report by accusing its authors of "systematic anti-Israel discrimination." Ukraine •Ukraine used replenished stocks of anti-aircraft missiles to intercept 29 of the 30 incoming missiles and drones Russia fired across the border overnight. That's a much better success rate than Ukraine was able to achieve when it had to ration dwindling air defense supplies. •Pres. Zelensky boasted that this high success rate could be a "daily achievement" if Western partners send more air defense supplies. •On that note, the U.S. said it would send Ukraine a second Patriot missile system. This one will come from Poland after the U.S. troops it's currently protecting there rotate back home in the coming weeks. Haiti •Haiti's new interim prime minister, Garry Conille, appointed a new cabinet, ousting most of the ministers from former PM Henry's ineffective government. South Africa •Former president Zuma's upstart uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party is seeking to spoil the election in which his former African National Congress (ANC) party lost its majority. •MK filed formal objections alleging widespread irregularities in the poll - without offering any evidence to support its claim - and filed legal papers to block the ANC from convening its first parliamentary session on Friday. •Zuma's appeals are unlikely to reverse election results, but they may hinder the ANC's progress forming a national unity government. That may be Zuma's real goal anyway: Zuma despises his successor and bitter rival, Pres. Ramaphosa, and would be pleased to see the ANC struggle to re-elect Ramaphosa. Other News •Malawi's president confirmed that his vice president, Saulos Chilima, was killed in a plane crash along with nine others. The crash was attributed to bad weather. •A fire broke out in a dilapidated and overcrowded building housing migrant workers in southern Kuwait, killing at least 41. Deputy PM Sheikh Fahad Yusuf Saud Al-Sabah criticized "the greed of real estate owners" who chose to skimp on proper maintenance and safety measures.
Open source reportOff Leash update 11 June Gaza •The UN Security Council (UNSC) passed a U.S.-backed resolution supporting the latest Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal, with Russia abstaining instead of blocking the vote with a veto. The UNSC's support is symbolically important because it conveys broad international backing for a deal, but ultimately only Israel and Hamas can sign off on this deal. •To that end, SecState Blinken is on his eighth trip since Oct. 7 to the Middle East with a straightforward message for the foreign leaders he'll meeting with: "If you want a ceasefire, press Hamas to say, yes." •Blinken is portraying Hamas's assent as the only remaining obstacle to a ceasefire deal, but Israel hasn't agreed to the current terms yet, either. •It's true that the current terms were originally conceived by Israel before Pres. Biden leaked them to the media (on a Friday night after Israel's ultra-orthodox - who oppose offering Hamas any concessions - had powered off their phones for the sabbath), but PM Netanyahu will have a hard time selling the deal to his most conservative supporters, who have threatened to abandon his fragile coalition if he fails to destroy Hamas. •Meanwhile, NBC News reported that the U.S. is considering a separate bilateral deal with Hamas to release five American hostages. It's not clear what the U.S. would offer Hamas in return. Ukraine •Ukraine claimed it successfully destroyed one of Russia's ~14 remaining Sukhoi Su-57 fighter jets in a drone strike on the Akhtubinsk airfield inside Russia. Initial reports suggest Ukraine used its own drones in the strike - not advanced Western weapons it recently got permission to use inside Russia. •Separately, an investigation by BBC Russia and Mediazona found that over 19,500 Wagner mercenaries died in the "Bakhmut meat grinder" between Jan. 2022 and Aug. 2023. That's consistent with the "over 20,000" men that Wagner's late founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said he lost in the grueling battle for the town. •The new report said over 17,000 of the men Wagner lost in Bakhmut were former prisoners that Pres. Putin pardoned in exchange for their commitment to fight. Yemen •Yemen's Houthi rebels said they interrupted an "American-Israeli spy cell" after arresting around 12 UN personnel and staff of a U.S.-funded pro-democracy group, the National Democratic Institute. U.S., Israeli, and UN officials declined to comment. Afghanistan •Russia's foreign ministry said it's considering removing the Taliban from its list of terrorist organizations in order to facilitate dialogue on "issues such as drug trafficking, terrorism, and organized crime." •Delisting could be the first step towards recognizing the Taliban government. [Russia - which lost global allies after invading Ukraine and is eager for international friends - would be the first country to officially recognize the Taliban government.] Other News •A plane carrying Malawi's vice president, a former first lady, and eight others went missing in bad weather. Pres. Chakwera said authorities are searching through thick brush with "every fiber of hope that we will find survivors."
Open source reportOff Leash Update 6 June Gaza •Israel and Hamas are reportedly still far from agreement on the terms of the latest U.S. ceasefire proposal. Indirect talks continue in Qatar. •Meanwhile, Israel launched a new operation against Hamas in Bureij and Deir al Balah, central Gaza. Israeli forces are hunting Hamas militants "above and below ground," including at a site that Israel says was a Hamas compound hidden in a school. Gaza's health ministry claimed Israel's strike on the school killed 27 people seeking shelter there - not Hamas militants. •A NYT investigation found that Israel planned and funded an ongoing social media campaign to influence U.S. lawmakers to support the war in Gaza by planting pro-war posts by fake "American" users. •Israel's campaign was among the AI-based influence operations Meta and OpenAI recently said had targeted their platforms over the past six months [Russia, Iran, and China also ran similar campaigns.] Both companies said none of the foreign influence campaigns had a widespread impact. Russia •Pres. Putin lashed out at Western countries - especially Germany - for allowing Ukraine to use their donated weapons to strike targets inside Russia. •The U.S. and UK have also given Russia permission to use their weapons to strike Russia, although the U.S. only ok'ed strikes on Russian regions near Kharkiv. •He warned that Russia would reciprocate in kind: "If someone thinks it possible to send such weapons to a war zone to strike our territory and create problems for us, then why do we not have the right to send our weapons of the same class to those regions of the world where strikes can be made on sensitive facilities of the countries that do this against Russia?" •[I would note that Russia was the first to use foreign-supplied weapons in cross-border attacks: it uses North Korean missiles and Iranian drones in Ukraine.] •I highly doubt Russia would consider direct strikes on German, American, or British soil because of the risk of igniting WWIII. Rather, Putin will probably try to target Western assets or personnel in Ukraine. Iran •The UN's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) voted 20-2 (with 12 abstentions) to approve a resolution rebuking Iran for refusing to give IAEA inspectors access to its nuclear sites. •The two no votes were cast by Russia - which buys Iranian drones to use in Ukraine - and China - which circumvents sanctions to buy cheap Iranian oil. •The IAEA censure resolution isn't enforceable, but the fact that 20 countries voted to approve it may add a tiny bit of political pressure on Iran to cooperate with inspectors. (Unlikely) Venezuela •Pres. Maduro uninvited European Union observers from monitoring his farcical July 28 presidential election on hyperbolic grounds that EU compliance with "genocidal sanctions" on Venezuela is "interventionist." •The EU hadn't accepted Maduro's invitation anyway. •Plus, observers don't need to fly to Venezuela to conclude that the election won't be fair: Maduro is already manipulating the vote by bullying the opposition and blocking its strongest candidates from running against him. Other News •A lone gunman wearing a vest labeled "Islamic State" in Arabic and "IS" in English opened fire near the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon. He was quickly shot and arrested. Islamic State hasn't officially claimed the attack yet.
Open source reportOff Leash update 5 June India •India released results from its six-week election saga yesterday, and they revealed a shock decline in support for PM Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) that exit polls had failed to predict. •The BJP still won more seats than any other party, but - for the first time since it came to power in 2014 - failed to secure the 272 seats it needed for an outright majority...far fewer than the 303 votes it won in 2019 or the "400 plus" supporters had predicted for 2024 in taunting campaign chants. •The BJP already governed within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coalition, but because the BJP alone had enough seats for a majority after the last election, it could force its platform through without outside suport - even from coalition parties. Now it may need to make more concessions to maintain the coalition's majority. •PM Modi declared that the results had "shown immense faith" in the BJP, but his critics say the BJP's loss in seats confirmed voters' frustrations with Modi's Hindu nationalism and failure to level India's vastly unequal playing field. •Investors sold Indian stocks, fearing that Modi's mandate for implementing pro-business reforms was weakened by softened electoral support. Mexico •While the BJP's stumble in Indian elections caused India's stockmarkets to fall ~6%, Mexican stock prices fell for a related-but-opposite reason: a landslide victory by left-wing President-elect Sheinbaum offers her a mandate to extend - or even expand - her populist predecessor's anti-business policies. •Sheinbaum has been opaque about her economic policy plans. Some pro-business voices still hope she'll break with Pres. AMLO's leftist programs. Gaza •Neither Israel nor Hamas has formally responded to the ceasefire proposal the U.S. tabled on Friday. •Hamas is reportedly uncomfortable that the proposal doesn't explicitly end the war, but the U.S. is urging it (indirectly, via Qatari mediators) to accept anyway - and to trust that an amenable post-war plan will then fall into place. •Meanwhile, Israeli PM Netanyahu is uncomfortable agreeing to a proposal that ends the war without destroying Hamas, since some of his right-wing coalition partners have threatened to sink his government if he agrees to the current terms. •Nonetheless, the U.S. is still hoping both sides will agree. CIA Director Burns and White House Middle East envoy McGurk traveled to Qatar to advance talks. •Separately, Slovenia's parliament voted to recognize Palestinian statehood without a referendum on the question [a 60% majority of Slovenians support recognizing Palestine and only 20% oppose it, so a referendum probably would've passed anyway]. Iran •Syrian state media previously reported that Israeli airstrikes hit targets in and around the Syrian city of Aleppo on Monday. Now there are semi-official reports that the Israeli strikes killed a senior Iranian IRGC commander, Saeed Abyar, and 12 militants. •The IRGC’s commander-in-chief, Hossein Salami, swore that Israel "will pay" and "should await a response." This response will probably be more muted than Iran's direct strikes on Israel in early April. Afghanistan •Abu Dhabi's ruler, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahyan, warmly welcomed Taliban official Sirajuddin Haqqani, who the U.S. wants to try on terrorism charges and is the subject of a $10 million U.S. arrest bounty. Despite their friendly meeting, the UAE still doesn't recognize the Taliban government - no nations have yet. Migration •Seeking to look tough on illegal immigration ahead of November elections, Pres. Biden signed an executive order that would trigger a ban on asylum applications by illegal migrants once seven-day average migrant encounters exceed 2,500. That's a low hurdle set near the current rate, so the (temporary) ban will likely be invoked very soon.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 4 June Gaza •Two far-right members of PM Netanyahu's fragile coalition - his national security minister and finance minister - threatened to bring down his government if he accepts the ceasefire deal Pres. Biden proposed. The opposing ministers say they'll refuse any deal that lets Hamas survive as a political entity. Ukraine •On Friday, the Biden administration said it would allow Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied weapons to strike targets inside Russia. Later that day, Ukraine did just that: it used HIMARS launchers to target Belgorod Friday night, and may have also used U.S. weapons to destroy a Russian S-300 yesterday. A Ukrainian official observed that the S-300 "burns beautifully." Russia •Russian bots are flooding EU voters' news feeds with disinformation ahead of this weekend's election for the regional parliament. Aside from the usual fake news about Ukraine, Russian e-trolls are churning out false stories to create skepticism about liberal EU climate policies to nudge voters to support candidates who are more open to relaxing sanctions on Russia and buying more Russian gas. Iran •Iran's acting Foreign Minister, Ali Bagheri, acknowledged that the U.S. and Iran continue to engage in indirect talks via Omani mediators: "We have always continued our negotiations…and they have never stopped." Bagheri would know: he was a lead participant in the discussions earlier this year. Sahel •Bloomberg reported that Russia's state nuclear company, Rosatom, is negotiating with Niger's junta to acquire French mining assets in the Sahel. Niger is the world's seventh-largest uranium producer - with about 4% of global production last year - and the junta would be happy to sever more ties with the country's former colonial power (France) in favor of Russia, which has been sending Niger military support with few overt strings attached. North Korea •I should clarify yesterday's news about South Korea pulling out of its 2018 non-escalation pact with North Korea: the North already suspended its side of the deal and the South partially suspended it last year, so Seoul's latest move would only sever the thin remaining symbolic threads of the original pact. •The North is probably more upset about the threat of K-pop and real news blasting over the border than the South is about the trash-filled balloons floating over to its side. One analyst summarized Kim Jong Un's dilemma nicely: "Kim doesn't want his people to know about their relative deprivation and the quality of life in the free world. He is more afraid of [K-pop band] BTS than U.S. nukes." South Africa •South Africa's African National Congress (ANC) is reportedly in talks with the Democratic Alliance (DA) about a coalition government. South Africa's stocks, bonds, and currency rose on the news that the ANC plans to work with the pro-business DA instead of a less business-friendly party like Jacob Zuma's MK. Other News •Nigerians are striking en masse to demand higher wages amidst the highest inflation levels in 28 years - caused in part by Pres. Tinubu's efforts at economic reform, which included ending disastrous fuel subsidies. Workers protesting the economically painful adjustments Tinubu's reforms have shut down the national security grid and suspended operations at major airports.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 3 June Coming Up This Week •Results from India's six-week election are due tomorrow. Exit polls show a comfortable lead for PM Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) party, despite challenges from a newly-united opposition calling for a fairer distribution of power and economic opportunities. •Russia has invited friendly countries - including China and India, but also North Korea and Taliban Afghanistan - for the St. Petersburg International Forum Wednesday through Saturday. •Thursday (June 6) is the 80th anniversary of the D-Day landings. •EU countries vote for the bloc's parliament Thursday through Sunday. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,653/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $21,250/ton •Cobalt: $27,150/ton •Copper: $10,040/ton •Gold: $2,330/toz •Lead: $2,273/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.71/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $76.72/barrel •Zinc: $2,970/ton South Africa •South Africa released official election results on Saturday, confirming that the ruling African National Congress (ANC) party lost its majority for the first time since Nelson Mandela led it to victory in 1994. •The ANC, which won 40.2% of the vote, now has two weeks to form a coalition, but its factions disagree on which opposition party to bring into a coalition. •Pragmatic voices favor the business-friendly Democratic Alliance (DA), which won 21.8% of the vote and would easily bring the ANC over the 50% mark for a majority. •Former ANC president Zuma's upstart uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party won - some would say spoiled - 14.6% of the vote, and thus could also bring the ANC over the 50% mark; however, Zuma has a bitter history with many in the ANC, including Pres. Ramaphosa. •The Marxist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), which won 9.5% of the vote, wouldn't bring enough votes to get the ANC's coalition to 50% by itself: the ANC would need to bring a third minor party in, too. Mexico •Climate scientist Claudia Sheinbaum won enough votes in yesterday's Mexican presidential election that poll officials are already calling the poll in her favor. •Sheinbaum is part of Pres. AMLO's Morena party - which may have won a two-thirds super-majority yesterday - and a mentee of AMLO, but she hasn't been vocal about whether she plans to continue his populist policies or change course to try to fix the economic woes that worsened under his rule. Gaza •Pres. Biden shared a new ceasefire proposal with Israel, forcing PM Netanyahu to make a tough decision: if he accepts a deal for peace in Gaza, he'll secure the release of Hamas's hostages - but risk losing the hard-right support that his government needs to stay in power. •Nonetheless, the White House said it has "every expectation" that Netanyahu will accept the proposal if Hamas does (Hamas hasn't officially responded yet). •The three phases of the tabled proposal are: oFirst phase: A six-week ceasefire would see Israel withdraw from major Gazan cities and let displaced Gazans return to the north; Israel would release hundreds of jailed Palestinians and allow aid flows to resume. In return, Hamas would also observe the ceasefire and would release some (elderly, female, and wounded) hostages. oSecond phase: Israel would completely withdraw from Gaza to honor a permanent ceasefire (the proposal doesn't answer the hard question of who would run Gaza after Israel withdraws). Hamas would release all living prisoners, including male soldiers, and Israel would release more prisoners. oThird phase: Hamas would return the remains of dead hostages and kick off a three- to five-year reconstruction period. North Korea •South Korea was displeased at the trash- and excrement-filled balloons North Korea floated over their shared border last week, and said it would scrap a 2018 agreement it signed with its northern neighbor to ease tensions. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 28 May Gaza •Israel is facing heat for its strike in Rafah that successfully targeted two senior Hamas militants - but apparently also ignited a fire that killed at least 45 displaced Palestinians sheltering in a tented camp near the site of the strike. Israel blamed Hamas for hiding high-ranking leaders behind civilians. The UN Security Council will meet in a closed session today to discuss the incident. •Separately, Egyptian and Israeli soldiers exchanged fire on the Egypt-Gaza border yesterday. Egyptian eyewitnesses told Reuters an Egyptian guard fired at the Israeli troops first - after watching them chase and kill some Palestinians on the other side of the border. North Korea •North Korea attempted to launch a second spy satellite, but the rocket carrying it exploded shortly after launch. •The timing of the attempted launch was peculiar because it coincided with a trilateral meeting between China, Japan, and South Korea; and must have distracted from their summit. North Korea usually avoids inconveniencing China, its top ally. •Pyongyang blamed the rocket's failure on the new liquid oxygen-petroleum engine it employed, which analysts say suggests Russia may have supplied or advised North Korea (Russia is a global leader in liquid oxygen-fuel technologies). Afghanistan •A senior Russian diplomat told the state-run TASS news agency that his government is considering removing the Taliban from its list of terrorist organizations, and could then consider formally recognizing the Taliban government. •That would be the second of two recent moves to embrace the Taliban: the first was inviting Taliban delegates to the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum early next month. •Russia doesn't have many friends these days, which is perhaps why it's willing to embrace unsavory company like the Taliban. Sahel •The EU announced that it would be following the U.S.'s example and ending its Military Partnership Mission in Niger early - rather than continuing to work with an uncooperative junta that is cozying up to Russia. The EU's mission was supposed to run through Dec. 2025; instead, it will wrap up at the end of June 2024. Other News •The government of Papua New Guinea belatedly ordered thousands of people to evacuate the path of the landslides that have already buried an estimated 2,000 people - and are still actively blanketing more terrain.
Open source reportOff Leash update May 16 Ukraine •Analysts are worried about Russia's rapid recent advances along multiple fronts in Ukraine - including two lines of attack in the north near Kharkiv. •The situation is dire enough that Pres. Zelensky postponed his upcoming foreign trips to focus on countering the incursions. •The NYT speculated that Russia's real goal in the north could be to draw Ukraine's forces away from other fronts to reinforce Kharkiv, leaving a thin front line that Russia can assault in another offensive next month. China •Presidents Putin and Xi began two days of meetings in Beijing by celebrating their countries' partnership as "one of the main stabilising factors on the international arena." •They're expected to discuss economic cooperation and the war in Ukraine - in particular, Putin hopes to find ways to expand China's supply of dual-use goods for his war (which Beijing justifies in the name of "safeguarding regional and global security and stability"). •Meanwhile, China vowed to retaliate against new U.S. tariffs on electric vehicles (EVs) and other novel technologies with "resolute measures" - perhaps including countertariffs, restrictions on tech exports, or boycotts of unrelated but important U.S. imports like soybeans. •China may also seek ways to evade the new tariffs. For example, Chinese EV maker BYD previously said it was considering opening new factories in Mexico to build cars for the Mexican market, and U.S. policymakers are concerned it - and other Chinese manufacturers - could use Mexican plants as a backdoor to reach the U.S. market without paying tariffs. U.S. Trade Representative Tai hinted that her office is contemplating additional penalties on tariff evaders. •Separately, China sent dozens of armed ships to block unarmed Filipino demonstrators from asserting their country's claim to the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea. The protesters have the tacit support of their government in Manila, while Beijing hopes that by stymying their demonstration it can legitimize its claim to the atoll. Gaza •Yoav Gallant - Israel's defense minister and a perpetual thorn in PM Netanyahu's side - called on Netanyahu to present a "day-after" plan for running Gaza after the war ends. Netanyahu immediately rejected the idea of committing to a long-run plan while Hamas is still in power, calling it "detached from reality." •U.S. Central Command announced that it anchored the floating pier that will receive humanitarian aid for Gaza. Its first aid shipments - including a UK shipment of 8,400 temporary shelters - are already en route. Other News •Slovakia's PM Robert Fico survived an assassination attempt that appears to have been politically motivated. Fico began his political career in the Communist Party, but has drifted to the right over the course of his three terms as PM, and now has stronger ties with Hungary's PM Orban and Russia's Pres. Putin than some of his pro-European constituents are comfortable with.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 13 May Coming Up This Week •Israel celebrates Yom Ha'atzmaut - its Independence Day on the Gregorian calendar - starting at sundown tonight, while Palestinians lament Nakba Day - the annual commemoration of their displacement upon Israel's independence in 1948 - on Wednesday. Both holidays will be especially charged this year as the war in Gaza presses on. •The Cannes Film Festival starts tomorrow, but strikes by freelance festival workers threaten to disrupt the soirée. •Singapore's finance minister and deputy prime minister, Lawrence Wong, will become the city-state's fourth prime minister since independence in 1965. •Next Sunday, the Dominican Republic votes in a general election. •Next Sunday is also the final day of the Premier League season. Arsenal leads Manchester City by just one point. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,530/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $15,700/ton •Cobalt: $27,830/ton •Copper: $10,004/ton (an almost two-year high due to supply concerns) •Gold: $2,341/toz •Lead: $2,223/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.29/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $78.51/barrel •Zinc: $2,930/ton Gaza •On Friday, the UN General Assembly voted 143-9 to adopt a resolution stating that Palestine qualifies for full membership at the UN. The vote is a symbol of global support for (eventual, theoretical) Palestinian statehood, but bears no real teeth. •Meanwhile, a ceasefire deal for Gaza still seems elusive. Pres. Biden nudged Hamas to release all remaining hostages - saying that if they did then a ceasefire would be possible - but Hamas retorted that they would "consider [that] a setback to the outcomes of the latest round of negotiations." Russia •Pres. Putin demoted his defense minister and longtime ally, Sergei Shoigu, to run the national security council instead of the military. Some analysts had suspected Shoigu was losing Putin's support when Shoigu's close aide was sacked and charged with corruption last month; this move seems to confirm Putin is turning his attention elsewhere (though Shoigu could still have some-to-significant sway over the war as head of the national security council). •Putin appointed a civilian economist, Andrei Belousov, to replace Shoigu as defense minister. A Kremlin spokesman justified the change by pointing to soaring defense spending that requires deft economic management, as well as a need for "innovation." •A former MI6 officer told The Independent that Shoigu's sacking suggests "really quite serious instability right at the heart of this regime," but other analysts believe it merely indicates the Kremlin is returning to a Cold War level of war spending and needs better budgeting to fight the long war Ukraine has turned out to be (which is more consistent with the Kremlin's rationale). •Interestingly, Putin declined the chance to sack his chief of general staff and a frequent critic of the war, Gen. Valery Gerasimov, during the shake-up: the Kremlin said Gerasimov will stay in his post. Ukraine •Russia launched a rapid new offensive into northeast Ukraine (near Kharkiv) on Friday, and Ukraine's top military commander, Gen. Syrsky, acknowledged the situation there "significantly worsened" over the weekend. Local reports suggest Russia has captured more land area per day than at almost any other point in the war. •Ukrainian defensive lines seem to be holding, although some Ukrainian commanders are blaming others: one wrote on Facebook that "the first line of fortifications and mines just didn’t exist." •On a more positive note for Ukraine, new data showed Black Sea grain and oilseed shipments have rebounded to pre-war levels. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 8 May Gaza •Israeli ground troops entered Rafah yesterday and took control of the border crossing with Egypt. •The U.S. had cautioned Israel against invading Rafah, and the White House said it withheld the shipment of 1,800 x 2,000-lb bombs and 1,700 x 500-lb bombs to Israel last week because of concerns they could be dropped on Rafah - a move the BBC called the U.S.'s "biggest warning yet for Israel." •Perhaps in response to U.S. pressure, Israel appears to have toned down its Rafah plans from the full invasion it had envisaged to "a very precise" counterterrorism operation, and that tempered approach may have helped Hamas back down from its hard threat to walk away from ceasefire talks if Israel entered Rafah: negotiators from both sides remain engaged. •Some reports suggest that the proposal Hamas accepted - which PM Netanyahu seemed dissatisfied with - agreed to release 33 hostages...but that after Hamas's "minor word changes" dead hostages would count among the 33 to be released. Ukraine •Ukraine's security services said they had foiled a Russian plot to assassinate Pres. Zelensky and other military and political figures in Kyiv, and arrested two Ukrainian colonels suspected of treasonous collaboration with Russian intelligence agents on the plan. •Kyiv's official statement alleged that the Ukrainian colonels were part of a Russian-run network assigned to identify other potential traitors with links to Zelensky's security team who could capture the president and then kill him. •Russia has considered similar operations before: Zelensky recently told Italian media that he was aware of at least 10 previous Russian attempts on his life. •Separately, Russia launched a "massive" missile and drone attack on energy infrastructure targets throughout Ukraine early this morning, which was a rather violent way to commemorate today's national holiday celebrating the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany in WWII. Ukraine said it intercepted 39 of 55 Russian missiles and 20 of 21 drones. Russia •Pres. Putin was inaugurated for a fifth six-year term as Russia's head of state. •Hopefully he didn't celebrate his inauguration in the same way he honored a 2013 visit by former (and late) Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi: Berlusconi's former aide recently recounted a bizarre anecdote from that trip in which Putin shot dead a deer and cut out its heart for his hunting buddy Berlusconi, who promptly puked behind a tree. •Anyway, Russian law now requires Putin to form a new government at the start of his new term, and - while he's allowed to roll over the exact same government in place now and has shown no sign of considering a major pivot - analysts say this could be a good time to make some minor changes. •In particular, some think Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu's job may be at risk after his deputy was sacked last month. China •The UK's defence secretary said his Ministry of Defence (MoD) believes a hack of its payroll system "was the suspected work of a malign actor," and media leaks strongly hinted that the MoD blamed China. China reacted to the implication, calling it a "fabricated and malicious slander." •Separately (though perhaps not entirely unrelated to news of Chinese hacking), TikTok sued the U.S. government over a proposed law that would force TikTok's Chinese parent company, ByteDance, to divest the app or face a ban. Afghanistan •A sticky bomb targeted a Taliban convoy in restive Badakhshan province today - just a day after the army chief said he'd addressed local farmers' concerns about the poppy ban and quelled their unprecedented protests over it (by threatening to bring the military in). It appears the farmers are still upset. Strategic Minerals •Chinese cobalt reached its lowest price since April 2016 - $29,065 per ton (min. 99.8% Co min, ex-works) - because of oversupply caused by a rapid expansion in Chinese processing capacity. China processes 70-80% of the world's cobalt.
Open source reportOff Leash update May 7 Gaza •Hamas said it has accepted the terms of a ceasefire proposal from Egypt and Hamas that could stop the fighting - at least temporarily. •The terms of the proposal aren't yet public, but the NYT reported that experts say it has only "minor word changes" from the one Israel recently offered. However, other reports suggest PM Netanyahu has already rejected the proposal Hamas accepted as "far from Israel's basic requirements." •The U.S. is pushing Israel to consider the proposal on the table and hold off on sending ground troops into Rafah, but the clock is winding down: Israel's War Cabinet approved the ground invasion of Rafah unanimously, and prospects for a deal will dim after that begins, since Hamas has threatened to walk away from talks once it starts. •Families of the remaining hostages are also pleading with Israel to accept a deal instead of invading Rafah: some of them are blocking highways in Ayalon to make their demands heard. •Separately, Israeli police raided the local offices of Al Jazeera after Israel's parliament ordered the network to cease operations in the country on national security grounds. Al Jazeera defiantly called the raid a "criminal action" and continued to criticize Israel's war in Gaza. North Korea •The Economist reported that North Koreans were asked to swear their loyalty to Kim Jong Un during a ceremony on Jan. 8 celebrating Kim's 40th birthday. Analysts think the loyalty oaths were designed to solidify Kim's grip on power by boosting his cult of popularity. Ukraine and Russia •Russia said it would hold new military exercises near Ukraine to practice for the possible future use of "tactical" battlefield nuclear weapons. •Pres. Putin has consistently denied - including as recently as March - that he's ever considered using tactical nukes, so these exercises seem like provocative bluster in reaction to recent escalating rhetoric from Western leaders like France's Pres. Macron, who refused to rule out sending French troops to Ukraine (though he most likely would never do so), and top UK diplomat David Cameron, who said Ukraine is free to use weapons from the UK to strike targets inside Russia. •Separately, Russia detained a U.S. Army soldier in Vladivostok on charges of criminal misconduct. U.S. military personnel are strongly discouraged against travel to Russia because of the risk of detentions like this. Libya •Royal Jordanian and Qatar Airways will resume flights to Libya's Tripoli International Airport this month after a long hiatus, and Saudi Airlines is in talks to start servicing Tripoli routes, too. That seems like a good sign of stabilization in Libya - though it took longer than planned to revitalize Tripoli's airport due to cost overruns.
Open source reportOff Leash update 6 May Coming Up This Week •China's Pres. Xi is in Europe this week on a trip the NYT says "is likely to be seen as a none-too-subtle effort to divide Western allies." He'll visit France, Serbia (on the 25th anniversary of NATO's accidental bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade tomorrow), and Hungary. •Chad votes for president today, making it the first of the West African countries that fell to a coup in recent years to hold an election with the stated intent to return to democracy. [Opposition groups call that a lie, though: junta leader Mahamat Idriss Deby - who grabbed power after rebels killed his long-ruling father, Pres. Idriss Deby, in 2021 - is expected to win (it helps that 10 rivals were excluded from the ballot for "irregularities" and security forces shot an 11th dead in February). Deby's critics say the election is a sham designed to legitimize his rule.] •One of the energy industry's biggest tradeshows, the Offshore Technology Conference, begins today and runs through Thursday in Texas. •Russia celebrates its bloody victory over Nazi Germany - known as Victory Day in Russia - on Thursday, May 9 too. •The Eurovision finals are on Saturday, May 11. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,552/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $15,100/ton •Cobalt: $27,830/ton •Copper: $9,910/ton •Gold: $2,318/toz •Lead: $2,215/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.14/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $78.92/barrel •Zinc: $2,903/ton Gaza •Ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas broke down once again and Hamas negotiators left Cairo. •This time the main point of disagreement wasn't the number of hostages to be released, but rather the duration of a truce: Hamas wants a permanent one, and Israel fears that would let Hamas rebuild its arsenal to stage future attacks. •Israel appears to be preparing to launch its ground offensive in Rafah, and may be further encouraged by a Hamas rocket attack launched from Rafah that killed three Israeli soldiers and led Israel to close the Kerem Shalom border crossing to aid trucks. •Israel called on Palestinian civilians to evacuate certain parts of Rafah ahead of a "limited scope" operation, but it's not clear if this is related to the looming ground invasion of the city. •Separately, Israel's cabinet voted to close local operations for Qatar-based Al Jazeera - which it called "a Hamas mouthpiece" - for at least 45 days. Journalists decried the ban as a violation of their freedom of expression. India •Canadian police arrested three Indian nationals linked to the assassination of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Vancouver last June. PM Trudeau believes Pres. Modi's government ordered the killing, and he's probably right - though Delhi denies it. Afghanistan •Residents of northeastern Badakhshan province started an unprecedented protest on Friday against the Taliban government, which had begun to destroy local poppy fields. •The Taliban responded with a heavy hand over the weekend, firing at protesters to disperse them and killing at least two in the process. •Taliban officials say the protests are over and Badakhshan is back to normal, but locals remain angry with the government and its nationwide ban on lucrative poppy production. Its heavy-handed response to quell protests probably further fueled their anger. Sahel •Two new Russian transport planes arrived in Niger over the weekend. The first plane preceding them, which arrived April 10th, carried around 100 Russian trainers, so these next two could easily triple the number of Russian advisors working with the junta. •Separately, Nigerien officials ordered several Chinese-owned gold mines to temporarily close after local herders reported that dozens in their flocks had died from suspected groundwater contamination (the region isn't currently suffering from drought or any known animal epidemics).
Open source reportOff Leash update 3 May Birthday of a great man, my late father; Edgar Dale Prince Gaza •Ismail Haniyeh, who leads Hamas's political wing, said Hamas is pondering Israel's latest ceasefire proposal with a "positive spirit," which is more encouraging than the "negative" outlook other Hamas officials indicated for the plan yesterday. •Still, a Hamas spokesman reiterated that "negotiations will stop" if Israel launches its ground invasion of Rafah. In the meantime, Hamas is sending a delegation to Cairo to continue talks. •Turkey halted all trade with Israel over the "worsening humanitarian tragedy" unfolding in Gaza, but said it would resume trade if Israel allows the "uninterrupted and sufficient flow" of humanitarian aid into the strip. Turkey is Israel's fourth-largest trading partner, with 2022 imports plus exports totaling $6.8 billion. Israel's foreign minister accused Pres. Erdogan of acting like a "dictator." [Other critics have called Erdogan a "dictator" before, but usually it's in connection with his electioneering tactics and not trade policy.] •A new UN report estimated it could take 80 years to rebuild the 79,000 Gazan homes that were destroyed in just seven months of fighting, assuming reconstruction moves at the same galacial pace it did after the last two flare-ups in Gaza in 2014 and 2021 (992 per year, on average). And that still ignores the 370,000 Gazan homes that were damaged but not destroyed since Oct. 7. Sahel •Russian trainers entered Airbase 101 in Niger, which houses some of the U.S. troops remaining in the country. SecDef Austin seemed ok with the overlap: "The Russians are in a separate compound and don’t have access to U.S. forces or access to our equipment." •The U.S. may not have much kit left at Airbase 101 anyway: following the coup last July it began moving equipment from Airbase 101 near Niamey to Airbase 201 near Agadez. DRC •M23 rebels captured - or "liberated," in their words - the mining city of Rubaya in North Kivu. Rubaya's coltan mines produce about half of DRC's coltan ore supply, containing about ~20% of the total global supply of the critical smartphone mineral tantalum. •Locals report that M23 rebels are now advancing toward the region's largest city, Goma. Russia •Russia's state-owned Gazprom reported its first annual loss in about 20 years for 2023. European purchases of Russian gas dropped because of a mild winter and the war in Ukraine, and the outlook for 2024 looks worse still. Other News •Colombia's Pres. Petro divulged that vast stockpiles of ammunition - including millions of bullets, thousands of grenades, and 37 anti-tank missiles - were stolen from two Colombian military bases. Petro blamed "people within the armed forces who are involved in the illegal arms trade," and suggested the stolen munitions may have been sold to overseas criminal groups, including Haitian gangs. •Separately, early results show Conservatives losing ground in local elections in England and Wales, suggesting Rishi Sunak may struggle to hold onto his premiership in general elections early next year.
Open source reportOff Leash update 2 May Gaza and Israel •Speaking in Tel Aviv, SecState Blinken told reporters the U.S. "cannot, will not, support a major military operation in Rafah absent an effective plan to make sure that civilians are not harmed — and no, we’ve not seen such a plan." •He also nudged Hamas to accept the peace deal currently on the table, which would trade 33 hostages for a six-week ceasefire and some Palestinian prisoners. •Hamas officials told Lebanese media they're "negative" on the current proposal but willing to keep talking as long as Israel doesn't start its Rafah operation. •Separately, Colombia's leftist president, Gustavo Petro, severed diplomatic ties with Israel over its war in Gaza and called the Israeli government "genocidal." Colombia is the third American country to cut ties with Israel: Bolivia and Belize did so in November. Russia •The U.S. accused Russia of using the chemical choking agent chloropicrin on the battlefield in Ukraine, which would be a violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention. Russia called the allegations "baseless." China •The U.S. slapped sanctions on almost 300 companies and groups - including around 20 in China and Hong Kong - that it accuses of supplying Russia's war in Ukraine. China complained about the "illegal unilateral sanctions," which both SecState Blinken and Treasury Secretary Yellen had warned Beijing were coming. •The Solomon Islands solidified its loyalty to China by electing another pro-China prime minister, Jeremiah Manele. Manele was foreign minister when the Pacific nation switched its diplomatic allegiance from Taiwan to China, and has pledged to strengthen the country's opaque security pact with China as PM. •A highway in Guangdong collapsed after heavy rainfall, killing at least 48 people. Pres. Xi ordered local authorities to respond to the disaster quickly to save lives and ensure "overall social stability" - lest residents complain about a weak governmental response. Afghanistan •The Special Inspector General for the Reconstruction of Afghanistan's latest report said Islamic State-Khorasan is leveraging instability in Afghanistan to ramp up its recruitment there, and warned that the group's "resurgence" could lead to more attacks abroad - like its assault on a Russian concert hall in March and its bombing in Iran in January, which both killed over 100.
Open source reportOff Leash April 30 Gaza •Ceasefire talks between Hamas and Israel may resume in Cairo shortly - if Hamas agrees to send negotiators. •Israeli officials confirmed that they've made concessions in the interest of closing a ceasefire deal: they're now open to a ceasefire in exchange for the release of 20 to 33 hostages - down from the previous demand of 40 hostages. •Hamas had trouble locating 40 hostages fitting the previous offer's criteria for release (elderly, ill, or female) but should have an easier time finding 20 to 33 hostages to free. And it's in Hamas's interest to close a deal before Israeli ground troops enter Rafah, so we may see some progress towards a deal this week. •It sounds like the biggest negotiating gap now is how long a ceasefire would last: Hamas prefers a longer one that lets it stay in power, while Israel wants a shorter-term deal so it can secure the release of hostages but eventually return to routing Hamas's leadership. •Separately, the International Court of Justice will issue a provisional ruling today in Nicaragua's flimsy case against Germany for aiding genocide in Gaza by sending weapons to Israel. A finding against Germany could make other countries think twice before sending weapons to Israel. Middle East •The EU's top diplomat said that several EU nations - including Spain, Ireland, Belgium, Slovenia, and Malta - plan to recognize Palestinian statehood within the next month. Israel criticized the idea and said it offered Palestinian leaders a "prize for terrorism." •Separately, the NYT printed an excellent piece on the delicate tightrope Arab leaders in Egypt, Morocco, Jordan, Kuwait, etc. are walking between sympathizing with fellow Muslims in Gaza and suppressing public demonstrations supporting Gaza, which could churn up anger against their strict regimes. Sudan •Sudan's Rapid Support Forces are eyeing an assault on El Fasher, which is the last major city in Darfur still controlled by the government. •The fight for El Fasher would be a bloody one, with echoes of the genocide that began there around 20 years ago and killed up to 300,000 people. Iraq •A motorcycle assassin shot dead one of Iraq's most famous TikTok personalities - a woman stage-named Um Fahad - on Friday. •It's not clear who ordered Um Fahad's killing or why she was targeted, but her flamboyant posts made her conservative enemies - as well as 460,000 followers. •She was the third young Iraqi social media personality killed in the past year. Iran •The BBC published a leaked document from Iran's security forces indicating that its guards were responsible for the 2022 death of 16-year-old protester Nika Shakarami - and that they sexually assaulted her before killing her and dumping her body to be found nine days later. The government initially claimed she died by suicide. •The BBC investigated carefully (its article states: "There are numerous fake Iranian official documents in circulation, so the BBC spent months checking every detail with multiple sources"), and these new revelations seem legit. Afghanistan •A gunman attacked a Shia mosque in Herat, western Afghanistan, killing six civilians. No group has claimed the attack yet, but Islamic State is known to target Shias in the region. Other News •The Washington Post published the clearest evidence yet linking India's spy agency, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), to the attempted assassination of a vocal critic of PM Modi on U.S. soil in 2023, and even identified the RAW official leading the operation by name. •India rejected the report, calling its claims "unwarranted, unsubstantiated imputations."
Open source reportOff Leash Update 26 April Gaza •The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers began building a floating pier off the coast of Gaza to facilitate aid deliveries by circumventing delays delivering aid by land routes. It will take a few weeks to finish the pier, which will be able to receive up to two million meals per day. •The additional food aid will be most welcome in northern Gaza, where the UN's Integrated Food Security Phase Classification initiative is anticipating only its third ever classified famine in Gaza by late May (the first two were in 2011 in parts of Somalia, and in 2017 in South Sudan). •Gazan health officials said they discovered more bodies in a mass grave on the site of a hospital, bringing the total number of bodies unearthed there to 392. Israeli officials rejected suggestions that Israeli troops were responsible for the victims' deaths. •Separately, local media reported that Israel is now willing to accept the release of just 20 hostages - down from 40 - in exchange for a temporary ceasefire deal. The report is unconfirmed, and other citations say 33 is the minimum number of hostages Israel would accept for a deal. •Meanwhile, Pres. Biden and 17 other world leaders are trying a very different approach: asking Hamas nicely to release all remaining hostages. Haiti •Haiti installed a new transitional council, and PM Henry formally resigned in absentia - as he'd promised to do once the council was in place. •The gunshots that rang out in the background as council members took their oaths of office offered a preview of the tough task that lies ahead of them: the council has a deadline of February 2026 to organize elections and inaugurate a new president, but rampant gang violence threatens to derail their work. Sahel •The U.S. is withdrawing the ~75 Army Special Operations troops it has stationed in Chad after Chad's government asked them to leave. •The U.S. and Chad were in the process of renegotiating their security cooperation terms - and U.S. officials still hold out hope that talks will continue on May 6 - but Chad wanted better terms than the U.S. could apparently offer it. •Russia has been making rival security deals with other Sahel countries (including Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso) lately, and may be talking to Chad now, too. Iran •Iran sentenced Toomaj Salehi - a rebellious rapper - to death for "spreading corruption on earth" by making music that celebrated antigovernment protests. Salehi plans to appeal. Yemen •A UK Royal Navy destroyer downed a Houthi ballistic missile targeting a commercial ship in the Red Sea, marking the first time since the Gulf War that a UK ship-launched anti-air missile successfully intercepted an adversary's missile mid-air. South Sudan •According to Bloomberg, a little-known (and poorly acronymed) Emirati company - Hamad Bin Khalifa Department of Projects (HBKDOP) - struck a deal to lend South Sudan 12 billion euros ($12.9 billion) in exchange for future oil production. •The huge size of the deal means HBKDOP could receive essentially all of South Sudan's oil flows as repayments. Other News •Extreme rains caused heavy flooding in east Africa, and at least 200 people have died in the deluge. Tanzania, Kenya, and Burundi were the hardest hit.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 18 April Israel and Iran •According to NYT interviews after the fact, Israel didn't expect its April 1 strike on an Iranian embassy complex in Damascus to lead to the escalation that unfolded from it, and didn't even warn the U.S. about it until moments before it happened. •That now seems like a severe miscalculation: Israel failed to recognize that Iran's decision-making - like Israel's own - is influenced by hardliners who will reliably demand retribution at least as severe as the offense it avenges. •Israel's allies are urging it in the other direction: UK Foreign Secretary (and ex-PM) David Cameron and German Foreign Minister Annelena Baerbock both visited Israel to encourage a diplomatic response to Iran's weekend strikes instead of a military one. •PM Netanyahu seemed unmoved by the overtures: both Cameron and Baerbock assessed that Israel still intends to retaliate militarily, and after the meetings Netanyahu reasserted that Israel would prioritize its own interests and "do everything necessary to defend itself." •That said, the Israeli response may be limited. Israel's Arab neighbors say Israel has signalled it will restrict its retaliation to striking additional Iran-linked facilities in Syria, and pledged its response to Iran wouldn't endanger its allies' security. •Some Iran-linked bases in Syria have already evacuated personnel in anticipation of another strike there; others are operating only during the day (Israel usually strikes at night). Gaza •Qatar said it is undergoing a "complete re-evaluation of its role" mediating between Israel and Hamas after facing "exploitation and abuse" from unnamed "politicians who are trying to conduct election campaigns by slighting the State of Qatar." •PM Netanyahu is probably one of the anonymous detractors Qatar was complaining about: he has frequently criticized Qatar's mediation, refused to consider its negotiation recommendations, and threatened to ban its state news organization, Al Jazeera. Venezuela •Quiet talks between the U.S. and Venezuela over extending Venezuela's temporary sanctions relief broke down, and the U.S. allowed a six-month oil sales license to expire at midnight this morning. •The license had been granted in exchange for a commitment from Pres. Maduro to hold free and fair elections this year, but he broke that commitment by continuing to crack down on the opposition and scuppering their chances against him in July's election. Myanmar •Myanmar's junta moved deposed opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi from prison to an undisclosed location in the capital. •They cited concerns about her safety in a heat wave roasting the prison, but the rest of Naypyidaw is just as hot and they're probably not hosting her in an air-conditioned suite. •It's more likely that the junta is getting worried about the alliance of rebel groups threatening their regime and wants to make sure they hold onto their highest-value prisoner. China •Pres. Biden plans to announce a tripling in tariffs for Chinese steel imports, which are currently set at 7.5%. •Chinese steel represents only 0.6% of U.S. demand, so higher tariffs shouldn't raise U.S. consumer prices much - the increase is more of a political gambit to win voters in steel towns like the one in Pennsylvania where Biden will make his announcement. •Separately, a congressional committee accused China of complicity in the U.S. opioid crisis for offering tax rebates to manufacturers that produce fentanyl ingredients - as long as their products are sold abroad.
Open source reportOff Leash update 16 April Israel •More details are emerging about Iran's drone and missile attack against Israel over the weekend. •Iran aimed to launch over 170 armed drones, roughly 120 ballistic missiles, and around 30 cruise missiles at Israel. •An estimated half of the ballistic missiles failed on the launch pad or on their own in flight before Israel, the U.S., the UK, France, or Jordan had a chance to intercept them. According to U.S. and Israeli officials, only five of the ballistic missiles entered Israeli territory, and none of the drones or cruise missiles did. •The WSJ published a great account of how the U.S. meticulously organized the multinational coalition that successfully defended the attack in its first live battle test. •Saudi Arabia subtly acknowledged - via an official government post citing an unnamed "source" within the royal family - that it contributed intelligence to the international effort to intercept Iran's barrage, and justified its involvement in the interest of regional stability. [Saudi also blames Iran for inciting Hamas's Oct. 7 attack that set back Saudi-Israel rapprochement, so it likely welcomed the chance to build trust with Israel by spoiling its archrival's plans.] •Israel vowed a response to Iran "at the time that we choose," and Western countries are urging restraint - as they did on Iran when Iran was weighing its options. •Separately, Hamas shared a ceasefire counterproposal with Israel via mediators. In this version, Hamas offered to release about 20 hostages - and only after Israel pauses military operations in Gaza for six weeks, lets northern Gazans return home, and frees Palestinian prisoners - including those serving life sentences for more serious crimes. The counterproposal isn't getting much press; it's not clear if Israel will give it serious consideration. Ukraine •Some Ukrainians were apparently feeling abandoned watching the U.S., UK, and France directly intervene in Israel's defense while only supporting their war against Russia at arm's length. •In contrast to the roughly 320 projectiles Iran launched at Israel, Russia launched aroud 130 Shahed drones, 80 missiles, and 700 guided bombs at Ukraine in the last week alone - per Pres. Zelensky, who coolly observed: "the world has everything necessary to stop any missiles, Shahed drones, and other forms of terror." Sudan •Donors at yesterday's Paris conference committed €2 billion ($2.1 billion) in aid for Sudan's wartime humanitarian crisis. That's almost twice the fundraising goal, but the UN says Sudan and its neighbors who are hosting Sudanese refugees need more than twice the amount raised. •The UN didn't offer detail on the proposed allocation for the €2 billion raised, but said it would help "respond to the most urgent needs." Sahel •Russia isn't the only power swooping in to replace Western influence in junta-led Niger: China's state-owned CNPC signed a $400 million memorandum of understanding with the junta to sell crude oil from Agadem oilfield via an export pipeline to Cotonou, Benin that a CNPC subsidiary is building. •The junta's Minister of Economy and Finance launded the lucrative arrangement: "China is a great friend to Niger; we can never say it enough."
Open source reportOff Leash 11 April Gaza Israel's latest proposal asked Hamas to release elderly, ill, and female hostages - including five female soldiers - in return for a temporary ceasefire and release of Palestinian prisoners, but Hamas responded to tell negotiators it hasn't been able to locate 40 hostages fitting the bill. That admission raised concerns that more of the hostages than previously thought may have died. [Although that's not certain: Hamas officials also suggested it's just hard to locate dispersed hostages in the fog of war, and asked for a ceasefire to gather them from other militant groups and even families some are reported to be quartered with]. Meanwhile, an Israeli airstrike killed three sons of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh. The elder Haniyeh lives in exile in Qatar, but Israel says all three of his sons were Hamas military operatives. Their father was defiant: "The enemy is delusional if it thinks that by killing my children, we will change our positions. We shall not give in, no matter the sacrifices." While Israel continues to carry out airstrikes in Gaza, it has mostly reduced its ground presence and continues to boost aid flows into the strip. Defense minister Gallant announced plans to "flood Gaza with aid" through a new land crossing in the north that will shorten the distance aid trucks travel between Ashdod port and Gaza. China Canadian PM Trudeau testified at a government hearing about foreign interference, saying China tried to interfere in Canada's last two elections - although not in a way that affected the results, and probably not favoring one party over another. Venezuela Colombia's Pres. Petro said he met with Venezuela's opposition in Caracas, but he actually only met with Socialist Party-approved "opposition" candidate Manuel Rosales, and he did so with Pres. Maduro's approval. [Some analysts think Rosales was allowed to join the ballot for July's election because his candidacy lends a veneer of legitimacy to the rigged poll without posing a real threat to Maduro's re-election.] Petro's team didn't reach out to the united opposition under Maria Corina Machado - and Maduro probably wouldn't have let Petro meet any real opposition figures. Petro is trying to stay in Maduro's good graces because he wants to sign a deal that would see Colombia's Ecopetrol produce Venezuelan oil and gas. Afghanistan Reclusive Taliban leader Hibatullah Akundzada gave a rare public address during Eid prayers yesterday and doubled down on his government's Byzantine policies: "If anyone has any issues with us, we are open to resolving them, but we will never compromise on our principles or Islam. At the same time, we expect that Islam will not be disrespected. I will not take even a step away from the Islamic law." [Islamic law, in his view, recently led to the repeal of a ban on publicly stoning women to death for adultery - although no stonings have been carried out since the ban was repealed last month.] Other News Pres. Biden hosted an elaborate dinner for Japanese PM Fumio Kishida that was attended by Apple's Tim Cook, Amazon's Jeff Bezos, and Chase's Jamie Dimon. During meetings earlier in the day, the U.S. and Japan agreed to join three-way military exercise with Australia to counter China's growing influence in the Pacific. South Korea's opposition won a surprise landslide in yesterday's parliamentary elections, humbling Pres. Yoon and his conservative party and complicating their plans to pass legislation for the three years left in Yoon's term. PM Han Dong-hoon offered to resign. A South African court ruled that former president Jacob Zuma will be allowed to run for parliament under the newly-formed MK party on May 29 - despite a criminal conviction for refusing to cooperate with a graft investigation.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 4/9 Gaza Turkey lodged a form of protest over Israel's war in Gaza by enacting new restrictions on exports of 54 military items to Israel. The move was partly a response to Israel's opposition to Turkish aid airdrops in Gaza, but also an acknowledgement of rising public anger over the war, which was in full view when thousands of Turks turned out to demonstrate against Israel over the weekend. The leaders of France, Egypt, and Jordan also put Israel on notice: they warned of "dangerous consequences" if Israel proceeds with its planned ground invasion of Rafah. Israel seems to be moving forward with the Rafah invasion anyway: today PM Netanyahu announced that a date had been set for the operation (though he didn't share that date with the media). Hamas still hasn't officially responded to Israel's latest ceasefire proposal, but its leaders said the plan failed to meet any of their demands. They plan to deliver a formal response to mediators in the coming days. Separately, Israel issued a warning to Iran, which is weighing its options for retaliating against last week's Israeli strike that killed seven of its military officials in Damascus last week. Israel warned that it would strike nuclear facilities in Iran if Iran attacks targets within Israel. Some analysts are guessing that Iran will instead focus on Israeli-linked targets (like embassies) in a third country. Russia Six northern European countries - Belgium, Britain, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, and Norway - signed an agreement to work together to protect underwater infrastructure (e.g. telecom and power cables and gas pipes) from sabotage by "hostile actors." Russia is the main threat they're concerned about - and the main suspect in last year's attacks on the Nord Stream pipeline. Libya According to new reports, PM Dbeibah's government has hired the U.S. security contracting firm Amentum to train his 444th, 111th, and 166th Brigades, with a goal of bringing divergent factions together and hardening Libya's borders. The U.S. State Department apparently condones the program: it's coordinating with Amentum. Afghanistan The Taliban's acting telecoms minister confirmed to ToloNews that his government plans to ban access to Facebook from Afghanistan. Human rights groups condemned the news. Other News March's global temperatures broke seasonal heat records for the tenth month in a row: the El Niño weather cycle is exacerbating a long-term upward trend in temperatures due to greenhouse gas emissions.
Open source reportOff Leash update 8 April Yesterday marked the 30-year anniversary of the start of Rwanda's 100-day genocide. President Kagame - who is running for re-election in July - commemorated the occasion with a ceremony celebrating the country's progress under his leadership since then. A total solar eclipse will cross the U.S. from Texas to Maine this afternoon. A map here shows the total eclipse path and partial eclipse gradients. Pres. Biden is hosting a trilateral summit with Japan's PM Kashido and Pres. Marcos Jr. of the Philippines Wednesday. They're expected to discuss maritime cooperation to counter China's influence in the South China Sea. South Korea votes in parliamentary elections on Wednesday. Pres. Yoon isn't up for election, but his party's performance in the vote will be a sign of his own popularity. Commodity Prices Aluminum: $2,451/ton Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $13,450/ton Cobalt: $28,550/ton Copper: $9,330/ton Gold: $2,339/toz Lead: $2,124/ton Natural Gas (Nymex): $1.79/MMbtu WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $86.31/barrel Zinc: $2,639/ton Gaza Israel said it withdrew a division of ground troops from Khan Younis and southern Gaza "to recuperate and prepare for future operations," and Palestinians returned to the rubbled city. Some analysts suggested that the "future operations" part could portend a ground invasion of Rafah, which Israel has been planning for months. Meanwhile, Israel carried out another airstrike in southern Lebanon, killing the commander of Hezbollah's Radwan Brigade, which Israel blames for firing rockets into its northern villages. Separately, the International Court of Justice began hearing Nicaragua's case against Germany over German military and financial aid for Israel. Nicaragua argues that Germany's support has "contributed to the commission of genocide" in Gaza. Finally, Egypt's Al Qahera reported cautious optimism that Israel and Hamas had agreed on basic points in their ongoing ceasefire talks in Cairo. However, Hamas corrected that report by saying talks were still stalled. Iran U.S. officials expect Iran to launch a "significant" retaliatory attack in revenge for Israel's strike that killed seven Iranian military officers in Damascus. Some suggested Iran could strike either within Israel or against U.S. or Israeli facilities (like embassies) in other countries. To me, a direct strike on Israel seems unlikely, since it would be a disproportionate and dangerous escalation that Israel would force Israel to respond similarly. It also seems unlikely that Iran would pull the U.S. into the fray with an attack on a U.S. facility. Pres. Raisi's chief of staff even wrote to Washington warning the U.S. to "step aside" and avoid involvement so it doesn't "get dragged into Netanyahu's trap." It's more likely that Iran will find a way to retaliate with a limited and targeted operation against a specific Israeli target that placates its hardliners who are demanding action but avoids angering Israel into re-retaliating. Ukraine The International Atomic Energy Agency said Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station - which has been under Russian control since Feb. 2022 - sustained damage yesterday from drone attacks that damaged its reactor and killed one person. Russia accused Ukraine of "nuclear terrorism," but Ukraine insists it wasn't involved and instead suggested Russia was responsible - though it's unclear why Russia would strike a nuclear plant it controls. Ecuador stormed the Mexican Embassy in Quito to arrest Jorge Glas, a former Ecuadorian vice president who took refuge in the compound in December to avoid a prison sentence for corruption. Mexico was offended by the affront and promptly cut diplomatic ties with Ecuador. NYT analysts pointed out that Ecuadorian president Daniel Noboa likely calculated that arresting Glas would boost his sagging approval ratings ahead of an election next year.
Open source reportOff Leash Daily Update?: NATO celebrates its 75th anniversary on Thursday. SecGen Stoltenberg will commemorate the occasion with a press conference in Brussels. Kuwait votes in a general election on Thursday, and Slovakia votes in the second round of its presidential election on Saturday. Commodity Prices Aluminum: $2,337/ton Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $13,450/ton Cobalt: $28,550/ton Copper: $8,867/ton Gold: $2,233/toz Lead: $2,055/ton Natural Gas (Nymex): $1.76/MMbtu WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $83.17/barrel Zinc: $2,439/ton Gaza and Israel Israel and Hamas resumed ceasefire talks in Cairo yesterday. Then Israel announced an end to its two-week operation in and around al-Shifa hospital, which Israel says Hamas has been using as an operating base. Israel carried out airstrikes on another militant group, Islamic Jihad, in the courtyard of another hospital, Al Aqsa in Deir al Balah. Those strikes reportedly injured seven journalists but killed four members of Islamic Jihad, according to the BBC. Tens of thousands of Israelis took part in protests against PM Netanyahu in Jerusalem yesterday. They want Netanyahu to resign over his handling of the war and hold fresh elections. The demonstrations are set to continue through Wednesday. Meanwhile, The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an Iran-backed Iraqi militia, targeted a naval base in the southern Israeli city of Eilat with what it called "appropriate weapons" that penetrated Israel's air defenses and triggered alarms but caused no casualties. Eilat is the southernmost large city in Israel, which is why Israel's enemies to the south (e.g. this militia and the Houthis in Yemen) often target it. Russia Insider - a Riga-based and Russia-focused investigative journalist outfit - ended a year-long investigation with the conclusion that Russia's military intelligence unit known as 29155 may have been responsible for the mysterious "Havana syndrome" attacks that affected U.S. diplomats and personnel in multiple locations around the globe: Insider found evidence placing 29155 members on the scene of several of the attacks. The Kremlin dismissed the report as "nothing more than baseless, unfounded accusations by the media." Donald Tusk, Poland's PM and a former European Commission President, said Europe is entering a "pre-war era" and encouraged European countries to boost their defense spending in preparation for a possible future war against Russia. The Economist hinted that he was responding to an intensified Russian assault on Ukraine's energy structure. Pouria Zeraati, a UK-based Iranian journalist known for criticizing Iran's regime, was wounded in a stabbing attack in southwest London Friday. UK terror police are investigating whether he was targeted because of his work. Turkey Turkey's main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), stunned Pres. Erdogan's ruling Justice and Development (AK) party by winning local elections. Analysts say the vote signaled a rebuke of Erdogan's plans to introduce a new constitution and consolidate power. Ekrem Imamoglu, Istanbul's CHP mayor, won his bid for re-election against Erdogan's chosen candidate, which led to speculation that Imamoglu could challenge Erdogan for the presidency in the future. Afghanistan A landmine apparently left behind during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s exploded in Ghazni this week, killing at least nine children - and drawing attention to the problem of unexploded ordnance scattered across the country from prior wars. Many minefields have been cleared, but some haven't yet. Libya Assailants attacked Tripoli PM Dbeibah's residence with rocket-propelled grenades yesterday, causing alarm but no casualties. It's not clear who was responsible, but it could have been one of the militias that supports the rival government in Benghazi. China Syngenta, a Swiss pesticides firm owned by China's state-owned ChemChina, cancelled a long-delayed $9 billion IPO (at a valuation of $60 billion) on the
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