Off Leash: Political and security developments across seven theaters

Off Leash update 21 August

Venezuela •Despite global weekend protests against Pres. Maduro's theft of last month's election, Maduro hasn't budged. The Carnegie Endowment wrote that Maduro "has dug in and is waiting for global attention to move elsewhere." •If he's allowed to stay, an analysis by Meganalisis suggests that over 40% of Venezuela's remaining population of seven million may flee the country by the end of this year. •That would put significant pressure on Venezuela's neighbors - especially Colombia and Brazil, who have suggested holding new elections instead of pushing Maduro to accept the results of the election he lost. Iran •A senior Iranian official said Iran may wait "a long time" to respond to Israel's assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil last month. Analysts read between the lines to interpret that statement to mean Iran's response has been put on hold. Gaza •SecState Blinken left Egypt without a ceasefire deal, and Pres. Biden told the Democratic National Convention that Hamas is "now backing away" from a deal. •An headline in Israel's Haaretz claims Israel didn't actually accept the latest proposal either - "The U.S. Somehow Heard Netanyahu Say 'Yes' to a Gaza Deal. He Didn't" - suggesting the U.S.'s "best chance" bridging proposal never really had much of a chance. •Nonetheless, some mediators remain hopeful that talks will resume this week. •Meanwhile, the Israeli army recovered the bodies of six hostages in a long (>1 mile / >1.6 km) tunnel in Khan Younis. All but one had already been confirmed dead. Ukraine •Pres. Zelensky pleaded with the West to drop its "red lines" prohibiting certain Western weapons from being used inside Russia. •The Western prohibitions were mainly intended to ensure Ukraine doesn't use donated weapons offensively, since doing so could risk Russian retaliation against the west. However, as The Economist pointed out last week in an op-ed justifying Ukraine's Kursk invasion, Ukraine is "morally and legally" allowed to defend itself - "and that right does not stop at the border." •Few real prohibitions remain, anyway: most were dropped this spring after Zelensky's persistent lobbying. •Separately, Ukraine lobbed one of its largest drone volleys yet at Moscow overnight. Russia shot down at least 45 drones - including at least 11 over the Moscow region. There are no clear reports of injuries or significant damage from the drones yet. Russia •Pres. Putin visited the majority Muslim region of Chechnya for the first time in 13 years. During his unannounced visit, he inspected Chechan troops and volunteers preparing to deploy to Ukraine, telling the trainees: "As long as we have men like you, we are absolutely, absolutely invincible.: •Chechan warlord Ramzan Kadyrov claims that he's trained over 47,000 fighters to fight for Putin since the war began. North Korea •South Korea said a North Korean soldier defected early Tuesday, crossing the border on foot - an extremely risky move, given the heavy fortifications and tense trigger fingers along the border. •His was the second defection in two weeks. Analysts say the pattern could be a sign of rising economic hardship in the North - or an indication that South Korea's cross-border broadcasts are improving Northerners' access to information (and K-pop) and leading them to seek a better life in the South. Azerbaijan •Following a visit by Russia's Pres. Putin, Azerbaijan formally applied to join the BRIC bloc of fast-growing economies. •The BRICs began in 2009 with the four countries that formed its acronym - Brazil, Russia, India, China - but has since expanded to include five more countries that want to be in a bloc but don't make the cut for NATO: Egypt, South Africa, Ethiopia, UAE, and Iran.