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12 direct mentions across 12 briefings, with 22 linked developments.
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Russia and North Korea held simultaneous ceremonies marking construction of their first road bridge. The project and public acknowledgment of North Korean support for Russia against Ukraine is evidence of strengthening bilateral ties.
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Russia and North Korea held simultaneous ceremonies marking construction of their first road bridge. The project and public acknowledgment of North Korean support for Russia against Ukraine is evidence of strengthening bilateral ties.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
North Korea dossier
17 mapped developments across 5 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Sea off North Korea’s east coast
North Korea fired a suspected intermediate-range ballistic missile into the sea off its east coast, describing it as the country’s third missile launch of the year.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash Update 3 May 2025 CHINA •China's commerce ministry said it's "evaluating" U.S. proposals to start trade talks, but the ministry's statement sounded cool on the idea: it warned that if the U.S. "wants to talk, it should show its sincerity and be prepared to correct its wrong practices” by abandoning “unilateral tariffs." •Separately, Apple estimated that new U.S. tariffs on China will increase its costs by $900 million in the second quarter alone. Amazon also warned this week that "tariff and trade policies" - among other pre-existing factors - make its future results "inherently unpredictable." IRAN •The U.S. slapped fresh sanctions on Iran's oil trade, and U.S. SecDef Hegseth separately posted a clear "Message to IRAN" on X: "We see your LETHAL support to The Houthis. We know exactly what you are doing, You know very well what the U.S. Military is capable of — and you were warned. You will pay the CONSEQUENCE at the time and place of our choosing." •Iran was relatively restrained in its response: its Foreign Ministry criticized the U.S. for "contradictory behavior and provocative statements" but refrained from making harsher comments that could derail ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear talks. •Most accounts suggest both sides are still optimistic about talks and broadly interested in seeing them advance to the harder, technical phase of negotiations. •However, Oman, which is mediating between the U.S. and Iran, said the fourth round of meetings will be postponed from tomorrow to an unspecified later date "for logistical reasons." Iran seems to want the U.S. to repeal its latest sanctions before talks resume, but my guess is that it wants to avoid further escalation and won't make new sanctions a sticking point. •Pres. Trump then threatened to impose secondary sanctions on any country that continues to buy oil from Iran. China is by far the largest importer of Iranian oil and would be affected most under secondary sanctions (although history suggests it would find ways to evade sanctions by skirting them or switching suppliers...Venezuela, for one, is lobbying Beijing to buy more of its crude as Chevron production winds down). RUSSIA and NORTH KOREA •Russia and North Korea held simultaneous ceremonies to mark the start of construction on the first road bridge between them (a rail bridge already links the two countries at the same spot). •The new project is a further sign of strengthening ties between the two outcast states. Their leaders have also become more overt about celebrating North Korea's support for Russia against Ukraine in recent weeks. AFGHANISTAN •A former Russian ambassador to Afghanistan said that Russia will help the Taliban government fight their "common enemy" of Islamic State-Khorasan. He was vague about what Russian support would entail, saying only that Russia "will provide our best assistance to the authorities of [Afghanistan] through specialised structures." •No country has formally recognized the Taliban government, but Russia seems to be moving in that direction: last month it removed the Taliban from its list of terrorist organizations, to which it was added in 2003. DRC •DRC and Rwanda expect to submit a draft ceasefire agreement for eastern DRC today. Their temporary truce continues to hold better than their short-lived prior attempts at peace. Happy Birthday Dad, (Edgar D. Prince) RIP. We miss you every day.
Open source reportOff Leash update 24 Oct North Korea •U.S. intelligence corroborated reports that North Korea is sending soldiers to eastern Russia, but officials stopped short of explicitly concluding that they're training to fight in Ukraine - or perhaps are already fighting in Ukraine (as South Korea and Ukraine credibly allege). •SecDef Austin called the possibility of a North Korean deployment to Ukraine "very, very serious" and cast it as "an indication that [Pres. Putin] may be in even more trouble than most people realize." [Austin continued: "[Putin] went tin-cupping early on to get additional weapons and materials from the DPRK., and then from Iran, and now he’s making a move to get more people."] •North Korea's (alleged) presence in Ukraine could also frustrate China, which has a long friendship with North Korea but wants to be seen as a peacemaker - in opposition to a warmongering West - on the geopolitical stage. The NYT wrote: "The prospect of soldiers from China’s only treaty ally battling Western-backed forces on behalf of one of Beijing’s closest partners undermines that narrative." Turkey •Yesterday, armed attackers stormed the Ankara headquarters of Turkey's national aerospace company, Turkish Aerospace Industries, killing at least five people. The incident was quickly followed by a similar attack on a nearby defense company, Tusaş, that killed four. •Turkey blamed the usual bogeyman, the Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK), and bombed at least 30 PKK-linked "strategic locations" in northern Iraq and Syria. Kurdish officials said Turkey's reprisal airstrikes killed 12 civilians. •The timing was interesting, as Turkey's government has recently been subtly signalling a new willingness to end its 40-year conflict with the PKK. Just a day before the attacks, a far-right party leader allied with Pres. Erdogan publicly suggested that Erdogan could grant the PKK's imprisoned leader, Abdullah Öcalan, parole if he disbanded the PKK and renounced violence. •Öcalan's nephew - who was allowed to visit his uncle in prison for the first time in 43 months on Wednesday, just hours before the Ankara attacks - says Öcalan is open to taking a possible parole-for-peace deal. •That said, some question whether PKK militants would heed Öcalan's call to disband and renounce violence. There's speculation that PKK extremists carried out the Ankara attacks to derail a peace deal. Afghanistan •Taliban Acting Foreign Affairs Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani gave a rare interview with a Western journlist. It was only his second interview with a Western journalist since the Taliban regained power in 2021, and it was with a female journalist (!): the NYT's Afghanistan and Pakistan bureau chief. •Her pair of articles based on this interview and extensive related primary and secondary research and portray Haqqani as a jihadist-turned-diplomat now quietly advocating from within for more moderate policies than hardline Taliban emir Sheikh Haibatullah Akhundzada has decreed. Venezuela •The EU parliament awarded its Sakharov Prize - a prestigious award recognizing dedication to defending human rights and democracy - to Venezuelan opposition figures Maria Corina Machado and Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia. •In awarding the prize, EU parliament president Roberta Metsola reaffirmed the EU legislature's support for the opposition: "This parliament stands with the people of Venezuela and with Maria and Edmundo in their struggle for the democratic future of their country." Mozambique •Mozambique's electoral commission declared Daniel Chapo of the long-ruling Frelimo party the country's president-elect, with 71% of the official vote. •The opposition cried foul, alleging fraud, and a charismatic independent candidate, Venâncio Mondlane, called on supporters to "paralyse the country." [The murder on Saturday of Mr. Mondlane's lawyer - who was preparing a legal appeal of election results - helped fuel suspicions that Frelimo is conspiring against dissenters.]
Open source reportOff Leash update 23 October Hezbollah •Israel confirmed that one of its early October airstrikes on Beirut - analysts believe it was the barrage on Oct. 3 - killed Hashem Safieddine, the cousin and presumed successor to Hassan Nasrallah. •Netanyahu alluded to Safieddine's demise on Oct. 8 when he said Israel had killed "Nasrallah’s replacement, and his replacement’s replacement." •Analysts presume Safieddine was the "replacement," which would mean Israel also believes - though it hasn't confirmed yet - that it has killed Safieddine's replacement. •[I'm not sure who that would be. It's not Naim Qassem, Hezbollah's longtime deputy leader who was initially the rumored successor to Nasrallah: Qassem reportedly fled Lebanon for Iran Oct. 5 after resigning from his position and delivering a shaky recorded speech after Nasrallah's death in which he seemed to feel and fear the target on his back.] •Though leaderless, Hezbollah continued to fire rockets at Tel Aviv for the second consecutive day. Ukraine •South Korea increased its estimate of the number of North Korean troops already fighting for Russia in Ukraine. It now thinks 3,000 North Koreans have arrived on the front lines - of the total 11,000 Pyongyang committed to Russia. •According to a video posted by a Chinese mercenary who's also fighting for Russia in Ukraine, the North Koreans aren't doing very well: the mercenary - who goes by Dian Yuzhan (“prison warden” in Chinese) online - said eight North Korean officers were killed on their very first day of fighting: "goddamn it, they were gone just after entering [the war]." •The Economist noted that while the "erratic and heavily-armed" North Koreans' presence in Ukraine could throw some curveballs for Ukrainian defenders, it's also a sign that Russia has lowered its standards for allies out of desperation: (quoting John Foreman, a former British defense attaché to Russia from 2019-2022) " 'Russia used to look down on North Korea as a pygmy state,' he says. It was the great power 'with Tchaikovsky and Chekhov and ballet…not some bloke with ill-fitting suits in love with artillery and killing people.' " China •Last week, China stoked fears in Taiwan with large-scale military drills in the area, including a simulated blockade. Now it is keeping its threat looming over the island with new live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait. •Separately, India and China said they "reached a solution" over their shared border in the Himalayas, where their soldiers have fought deadly battles with sticks and knives in recent years. •Now with their border tensions deescalated and patrols resumed on both sides of the boundary, Pres. Xi and PM Modi will meet this week on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia. It'll be their first formal bilateral meeting since 2019. •Their broader border dispute remains unresolved, though. This "solution" merely lets both sides maintain their respective (and occasionally mutually exclusive) territorial claims so they can amicably collaborate on initiatives that benefit them both - like trade.
Open source reportOff Leash update 21 October Coming Up This Week •World Bank and IMF annual meetings take place in Washington, DC today through Saturday. Climate change programs are high on the agenda - although rich countries don't want to pay for them and indebted poor countries can't afford to. •Leaders of Commonwealth countries (the UK and most of its ex-colonies - or, roughly, countries that play cricket) meet in Samoa starting today. It's the first biennial Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting that King Charles III will lead. •Russia will host BRICS leaders for the bloc's 16th annual summit in Kazan tomorrow through Thursday. This will be the first opportunity for its new members (Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE) to join the namesake original members (Brazil Russia, India, China, and South Africa) for the meetings. [Saudi has been invited to join the bloc but isn't an official member yet and won't join this year's summit.] The group will discuss the possible future accession of up to 15 new members, including Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. •Uruguay and Japan will both vote on Sunday. A leftist opposition candidate, Yamandú Orsi, leads Uruguay's presidential polls, but not by enough to avoid a runoff. In Japan's snap poll, the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party hopes to recover public trust it lost in recent financial scandals, but it risks losing ground to a divided opposition. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,552/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,100/ton •Cobalt: $23,995/ton •Copper: $9,472/ton •Gold: $2,733/toz - an all-time record high •Lead: $2,034/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.28/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $70.34/barrel •Zinc: $3,082/ton Cuba •Cuba suffered four nationwide electrical grid failures over the weekend. •The energy minister blamed power plant problems, and it's no surprise that the island's outdated plants are failing: Fidel Castro once called them "prehistoric." The eight plants that produce Cuba's electricity are almost 50 years old - nearly twice their useful life - and poorly maintained. •The government seems to expect some blowback over the grid failures: Pres. Diaz-Canel appeared on national television (between blackouts) in fatigues to urge Cubans to express their frustrations peacefully. Middle East •Israel carried out airstrikes against Hezbollah's financial partner, Al-Qard al-Hasan, in Lebanon, and against Hamas in northern Gaza. •Militants in Hezbollah targeted PM Netanyahu's coastal residence, Caesarea, in a drone strike over the weekend. One drone penetrated Israeli air defenses but caused no casualties. Ukraine and Russia •Yulia Navalnaya - the widow of murdered dissident Alexey Navalny - told BBC that she intends to continue her late husband's fight against Pres. Putin: "I will do everything to make his regime fall as soon as possible." •Navalnaya also said she intends to run for president of Russia as soon as Putin is out of the picture (she rationally fears returning to Russia while Putin is still in power because his government - which killed her husband - has accused her of extremism too). •Separately, Ukraine sent hundreds of drones into several regions of Russia overnight. Russia intercepted most of them, but one penetrated Russian air defenses and struck a military explosives manufacturer deep inside Russian territory. •Russia also targeted Kyiv with airstrikes over the weekend. North Korea •South Korea's spy agency studied satellite photos to conclude that at least 1,500 North Korean Special Forces troops are fighting for Russia in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine previously warned that North Korea plans to send up to 10,000 troops to the war. Other News •Moldova voted yesterday on a referendum deeming EU membership a "strategic objective." The outcome is too close to call but slightly tilted in favor of closer ties with (and, eventually, membership in) the EU - despite Russia spending around €100 million supporting the other side.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 9 October Middle East •Hezbollah's deputy leader, Naim Qassem, expressed support for a ceasefire during a televised address yesterday. He didn't mention any conditions - not even the group's longstanding demand for an end to the Gaza war as a precondition for a detente (though Qassem did vaguely vow to continue to stand with Hamas and Palestinians against Israel). •U.S. officials assessed that Qassem's eagerness for a truce shows that Hezbollah is "getting battered" and considering acknowledging defeat. •Separately, Israel targeted a Hezbollah weapons smuggler with an airstrike on a residential building in Damascus's embassy district, killing seven (it's not clear if the target was among those killed). •Israel is still contemplating its options for responding to Iran's (largely-ineffective) ballistic missile strikes last week. PM Netanyahu will speak with Pres. Biden by phone today to discuss Israel's plans. •Iran is girding for a harsh response. Its diplomats have been warning Gulf countries against letting their airspace or military bases be used in an attack on Iran. Mexico •Mexico's new president, AMLO protege Claudia Sheinbaum, unveiled her plan to combat worsening cartel violence yesterday, and analysts were unimpressed. Critics of the plan say it's only a continuation of AMLO's "hugs not bullets" approach that failed to reverse the rise in violence. Russia •It's not just U.S. elections that Russia is seeking to disrupt: the head of the UK's domestic security service (MI5), Ken McCallum, said Russian spies are also trying to "generate mayhem on British and European streets" with acts of "arson, sabotage, and more." •McCallum said over 750 Russian diplomats - "the great majority of them spies" - have been booted from Europe since Russia invaded Ukraine. With its professional troublemakers benched, Moscow then resorted to hiring private operatives and common criminals for its EU missions, McCallum added. He blamed their work for driving a 48% rise in MI5 investigations into state-sponsored operations against the UK in 2023. •McCallum noted that Iran and China are also actively supporting plots in the UK, but not as vigorously as Russia is - and China's operations are primarily focused on targeting dissidents abroad. China •China announced new penalties on European brandy in response to tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) that the EU approved last week. •Beijing argues that EU brandy producers are dumping their tipples in the Chinese market at below-market prices - akin to how China is dumping cheap EVs in the European market at prices lower prices than domestic EV makers can tolerate. •China's new measures are structured in a way that gives the EU a chance to back down on its EV tariffs first: the Ministry of Commerce will temporarily collect deposits of up to 39% on EU brandy imports, but if it makes the penalties permanent then those deposits will be forfeited, effectively becoming tariff payments. •The European Commission plans to challenge China's retaliatory measures at the World Trade Organization. North Korea •Pyongyang announced plans to "permanently" sever road and rail links with South Korea and fortify its border regions. •Road and rail travel between the two Koreas has been cut off for years, so the North's gesture is largely a symbolic indicator that strengthening U.S.-South Korea military collaboration is raising Kim Jong Un's blood pressure. •Separately, Ukrainian media reported that six North Korean soldiers fighting for Russia were killed in a Ukrainian missile strike near Donetsk last week. •South Korea's Defense Minister told parliament that it's "highly likely" that North Korean soldiers are indeed fighting on Russia's side in Ukraine under the mutual defense pact Russia and North Korea signed - though this is still unconfirmed.
Open source reportOff Leash update 21 August Venezuela •Despite global weekend protests against Pres. Maduro's theft of last month's election, Maduro hasn't budged. The Carnegie Endowment wrote that Maduro "has dug in and is waiting for global attention to move elsewhere." •If he's allowed to stay, an analysis by Meganalisis suggests that over 40% of Venezuela's remaining population of seven million may flee the country by the end of this year. •That would put significant pressure on Venezuela's neighbors - especially Colombia and Brazil, who have suggested holding new elections instead of pushing Maduro to accept the results of the election he lost. Iran •A senior Iranian official said Iran may wait "a long time" to respond to Israel's assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil last month. Analysts read between the lines to interpret that statement to mean Iran's response has been put on hold. Gaza •SecState Blinken left Egypt without a ceasefire deal, and Pres. Biden told the Democratic National Convention that Hamas is "now backing away" from a deal. •An headline in Israel's Haaretz claims Israel didn't actually accept the latest proposal either - "The U.S. Somehow Heard Netanyahu Say 'Yes' to a Gaza Deal. He Didn't" - suggesting the U.S.'s "best chance" bridging proposal never really had much of a chance. •Nonetheless, some mediators remain hopeful that talks will resume this week. •Meanwhile, the Israeli army recovered the bodies of six hostages in a long (>1 mile / >1.6 km) tunnel in Khan Younis. All but one had already been confirmed dead. Ukraine •Pres. Zelensky pleaded with the West to drop its "red lines" prohibiting certain Western weapons from being used inside Russia. •The Western prohibitions were mainly intended to ensure Ukraine doesn't use donated weapons offensively, since doing so could risk Russian retaliation against the west. However, as The Economist pointed out last week in an op-ed justifying Ukraine's Kursk invasion, Ukraine is "morally and legally" allowed to defend itself - "and that right does not stop at the border." •Few real prohibitions remain, anyway: most were dropped this spring after Zelensky's persistent lobbying. •Separately, Ukraine lobbed one of its largest drone volleys yet at Moscow overnight. Russia shot down at least 45 drones - including at least 11 over the Moscow region. There are no clear reports of injuries or significant damage from the drones yet. Russia •Pres. Putin visited the majority Muslim region of Chechnya for the first time in 13 years. During his unannounced visit, he inspected Chechan troops and volunteers preparing to deploy to Ukraine, telling the trainees: "As long as we have men like you, we are absolutely, absolutely invincible.: •Chechan warlord Ramzan Kadyrov claims that he's trained over 47,000 fighters to fight for Putin since the war began. North Korea •South Korea said a North Korean soldier defected early Tuesday, crossing the border on foot - an extremely risky move, given the heavy fortifications and tense trigger fingers along the border. •His was the second defection in two weeks. Analysts say the pattern could be a sign of rising economic hardship in the North - or an indication that South Korea's cross-border broadcasts are improving Northerners' access to information (and K-pop) and leading them to seek a better life in the South. Azerbaijan •Following a visit by Russia's Pres. Putin, Azerbaijan formally applied to join the BRIC bloc of fast-growing economies. •The BRICs began in 2009 with the four countries that formed its acronym - Brazil, Russia, India, China - but has since expanded to include five more countries that want to be in a bloc but don't make the cut for NATO: Egypt, South Africa, Ethiopia, UAE, and Iran.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 25 July Israel •Israeli PM Netanyahu went ahead with a planned visit to the U.S., despite (or perhaps because of) news that Pres. Biden has bowed out of the November election. •Some analysts guessed Bibi would capitalize on Biden's weakened authority to make his pleas for continued U.S. support directly to Congress - which is bitterly divided on the issue. •Netanyahu probably also sought to cozy up to Biden's presumptive replacement on the Democratic ticket, VP Harris, but Harris snubbed his Congressional address to hit the campaign trail and speak at a sorority event instead. However, she'll still meet with him (and Pres. Biden) privately at the White House later this week. •Netanyahu delayed the departure of an Israeli delegation for ceasefire talks in Qatar until after his trip to Washington. North Korea •North Korea launched another fleet of trash balloons over the border, and some landed in the compound housing Pres. Yoon Suk Yeol's offices for the first time. •South Korean authorities didn't find anything hazardous or contaminating in the balloons' "payload" - just obnoxious trash sent in response to the propaganda leaflets ("political trash," in Pyongyang's view) that defectors from the North have been floating over the border. Russia •French police arrested a Russian chef suspected of links to the Russian security services on unspecified charges related to a "large-scale" plan to destabilize the Olympic Games that start this week. •It's not clear specifically what this Russian chef was cooking up, but French authorities clarified that the charges weren't related to terrorism. Some media outlets suggested he may have been part of anticipated Russian attempts to create false scares with AI-generated bomb warnings at the Olympics. Afghanistan •Chinese engineers and Taliban officials commemorated a groundbreaking on the long-delayed Aynak Copper Project southwest of Kabul. The Taliban Deputy PM for Economic Affairs said he hoped the project would make up for 16+ years of delays due to war and incompetence with "speedy work" - something the Taliban is not known for. •Short on good news stories, the Taliban also re-inaugurated the 25-km road leading to Aynak that was already officially opened about a year ago. Sudan •The U.S. and Saudi Arabia invited Sudan's warring parties to peace talks in Switzerland next month, and RSF leader Hemedti issued a statement accepting the invitation. His foe, Gen. Al-Burhan, hasn't responded to the invitation yet. Strategic Minerals •Tesla reported a 45% decline in net income for the second quarter - an even worse outcome than pessimistic analysts had predicted. Tesla has been losing its dominance of the electric vehicle (EV) market to cheaper rivals; additionally, demand for EVs has dropped as subsidy programs ended. •Separately, the UK's royals made a record profit last year, thanks largely to the Crown Estate's investment in offshore wind farms. The UK gets 17% of its electricity from offshore wind.
Open source reportOff Leash update 18 June Russia •Russia's Pres. Putin began an unannounced two-day trip to North Korea today. He's hoping to strengthen his friendship with one of the few world leaders still willing to send him weapons, and Kim Jong Un is hoping Putin will lend Russian assistance to North Korea's nascent satellite surveillance programs. •Both Russia and North Korea deny that they are arms trading, but Putin proclaimed that they are building "alternative mechanisms of trade" that aren't "controlled by the West" (i.e., subject to sanctions). •This was Putin's second trip to North Korea. His first - in 2000 - was the first time a Russian president visited the Hermit Kingdom. North Korea •While strengthening ties with Putin's Russia, Kim has been aggravating tensions with his southern neighbor. South Korean officials say North Korean soldiers have been laying mines and installing anti-tank barriers along the demilitarized border that divides the two Koreas since January. •South Korea reported firing warning shots earlier today to repel 20-30 North Korean soldiers who temporarily crossed over the border while building a barrier. Their incursion seemed accidental and they did not return fire. China •China opened an anti-dumping investigation into EU pork imports that analysts widely see as a retaliation for the EU's new tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs). •Beijing is likely targeting EU pork instead of a perfectly reciprocal levy on EU EVs because a tariff on EU-made EVs would also harm the Chinese brands making cars in Europe. •Meanwhile, the U.S. sided with the Philippines in its latest spat with China over Chinese bullying in the South China Sea. The U.S. called China "aggressive" for seizing two Philippine supply boats after colliding with a third one, and U.S. diplomats reiterated a warning that a 1951 treaty obligates the U.S. to defend the Philippines in case of an armed attack. Ukraine •A Ukrainian drone targeted one of Russia's two oil terminals in the southern port city of Azov, igniting a large fire. Hezbollah •While SecState Blinken tries to keep hope for an Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal alive, another senior U.S. envoy - White House adviser Amos Hochstein - is visiting Lebanon to lobby for an agreement between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah to end their cycle of tit-for-tack strikes over the border. •Hezbollah has linked its strikes to Israel's war in Gaza, so it would be unlikely to agree to a truce before the Gaza war ends.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 3 June Coming Up This Week •Results from India's six-week election are due tomorrow. Exit polls show a comfortable lead for PM Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) party, despite challenges from a newly-united opposition calling for a fairer distribution of power and economic opportunities. •Russia has invited friendly countries - including China and India, but also North Korea and Taliban Afghanistan - for the St. Petersburg International Forum Wednesday through Saturday. •Thursday (June 6) is the 80th anniversary of the D-Day landings. •EU countries vote for the bloc's parliament Thursday through Sunday. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,653/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $21,250/ton •Cobalt: $27,150/ton •Copper: $10,040/ton •Gold: $2,330/toz •Lead: $2,273/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.71/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $76.72/barrel •Zinc: $2,970/ton South Africa •South Africa released official election results on Saturday, confirming that the ruling African National Congress (ANC) party lost its majority for the first time since Nelson Mandela led it to victory in 1994. •The ANC, which won 40.2% of the vote, now has two weeks to form a coalition, but its factions disagree on which opposition party to bring into a coalition. •Pragmatic voices favor the business-friendly Democratic Alliance (DA), which won 21.8% of the vote and would easily bring the ANC over the 50% mark for a majority. •Former ANC president Zuma's upstart uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party won - some would say spoiled - 14.6% of the vote, and thus could also bring the ANC over the 50% mark; however, Zuma has a bitter history with many in the ANC, including Pres. Ramaphosa. •The Marxist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), which won 9.5% of the vote, wouldn't bring enough votes to get the ANC's coalition to 50% by itself: the ANC would need to bring a third minor party in, too. Mexico •Climate scientist Claudia Sheinbaum won enough votes in yesterday's Mexican presidential election that poll officials are already calling the poll in her favor. •Sheinbaum is part of Pres. AMLO's Morena party - which may have won a two-thirds super-majority yesterday - and a mentee of AMLO, but she hasn't been vocal about whether she plans to continue his populist policies or change course to try to fix the economic woes that worsened under his rule. Gaza •Pres. Biden shared a new ceasefire proposal with Israel, forcing PM Netanyahu to make a tough decision: if he accepts a deal for peace in Gaza, he'll secure the release of Hamas's hostages - but risk losing the hard-right support that his government needs to stay in power. •Nonetheless, the White House said it has "every expectation" that Netanyahu will accept the proposal if Hamas does (Hamas hasn't officially responded yet). •The three phases of the tabled proposal are: oFirst phase: A six-week ceasefire would see Israel withdraw from major Gazan cities and let displaced Gazans return to the north; Israel would release hundreds of jailed Palestinians and allow aid flows to resume. In return, Hamas would also observe the ceasefire and would release some (elderly, female, and wounded) hostages. oSecond phase: Israel would completely withdraw from Gaza to honor a permanent ceasefire (the proposal doesn't answer the hard question of who would run Gaza after Israel withdraws). Hamas would release all living prisoners, including male soldiers, and Israel would release more prisoners. oThird phase: Hamas would return the remains of dead hostages and kick off a three- to five-year reconstruction period. North Korea •South Korea was displeased at the trash- and excrement-filled balloons North Korea floated over their shared border last week, and said it would scrap a 2018 agreement it signed with its northern neighbor to ease tensions. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 28 May Gaza •Israel is facing heat for its strike in Rafah that successfully targeted two senior Hamas militants - but apparently also ignited a fire that killed at least 45 displaced Palestinians sheltering in a tented camp near the site of the strike. Israel blamed Hamas for hiding high-ranking leaders behind civilians. The UN Security Council will meet in a closed session today to discuss the incident. •Separately, Egyptian and Israeli soldiers exchanged fire on the Egypt-Gaza border yesterday. Egyptian eyewitnesses told Reuters an Egyptian guard fired at the Israeli troops first - after watching them chase and kill some Palestinians on the other side of the border. North Korea •North Korea attempted to launch a second spy satellite, but the rocket carrying it exploded shortly after launch. •The timing of the attempted launch was peculiar because it coincided with a trilateral meeting between China, Japan, and South Korea; and must have distracted from their summit. North Korea usually avoids inconveniencing China, its top ally. •Pyongyang blamed the rocket's failure on the new liquid oxygen-petroleum engine it employed, which analysts say suggests Russia may have supplied or advised North Korea (Russia is a global leader in liquid oxygen-fuel technologies). Afghanistan •A senior Russian diplomat told the state-run TASS news agency that his government is considering removing the Taliban from its list of terrorist organizations, and could then consider formally recognizing the Taliban government. •That would be the second of two recent moves to embrace the Taliban: the first was inviting Taliban delegates to the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum early next month. •Russia doesn't have many friends these days, which is perhaps why it's willing to embrace unsavory company like the Taliban. Sahel •The EU announced that it would be following the U.S.'s example and ending its Military Partnership Mission in Niger early - rather than continuing to work with an uncooperative junta that is cozying up to Russia. The EU's mission was supposed to run through Dec. 2025; instead, it will wrap up at the end of June 2024. Other News •The government of Papua New Guinea belatedly ordered thousands of people to evacuate the path of the landslides that have already buried an estimated 2,000 people - and are still actively blanketing more terrain.
Open source reportOff Leash update 24 April Iran and Israel •Israeli officials told the NYT they contemplated a broader strike on Iran in return for Iran's (mostly harmlessly intercepted) attempted strikes inside Israel, but settled for a limited strike on Isfahan because of diplomatic pressure from allies to avoid further escalation. •Iran's Ayatollah Khamenei seemed happy to let Israel have the last word with the Isfahan strike: at a meeting of senior officials, Khamenei brushed off the damage it did: "Debates by the other party about how many missiles were fired, how many of them hit the target and how many didn’t, these are of secondary importance." •Meanwhile, Iran's proxy in Lebanon, Hezbollah, launched drone attacks into northern Israel yesterday as Jewish families began the Passover holiday. All drones were intercepted. •Hezbollah's attempted Passover attack was probably a reprisal for an Israeli strike in southern Lebanon that killed Hussein Ali Azkul - who Israel called "a significant terrorist operative" - on Monday. Ukraine •Pres. Biden promised Pres. Zelensky that the U.S. weapons funded in the Ukraine/Israel/Taiwan support bill the Senate approved late last night will arrive "quickly." Ukraine will be eager to get them: its military is already suffering setbacks due to delays in U.S. funding. China •The Senate's foreign aid package for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan also included a provision obligating ByteDance - the Chinese company that owns TikTok - to sell the app to a non-Chinese owner or shut it down in the U.S. •ByteDance's shareholders - which include the Chinese government - seem averse to divesting the app, so it will likely face a ban. Russia •Russian investigators detained former deputy defense minister Timur Ivanov on suspicion of taking bribes "on a particularly large scale" in connection with construction projects he managed in Mariupol, Ukraine. •Russia doesn't usually censure senior officials for corruption [perhaps because bribery is so endemic among senior ranks that no hands are clean enough to throw the first stone] and Ivanov is a close ally of powerful defense minister Sergey Shoigu, who should have been able to shield him from scrutiny. •The fact that Shoigu didn't step in led some to speculate that Ivanov's real offense was something much more grave than graft - like treason (though the Kremlin denied it). Venezuela •Venezuela's oil minister, Pedro Tellechea, told Reuters that his ministry is exploring cryptocurrencies as a way to receive payments for oil sales once U.S. sanctions sink back in. •One cryptocurrency that Venezuela won't be accepting is the Petro (PTR): Pres. Maduro's Patria Platform gave up on that idea earlier this year after a corruption scandal. North Korea •North Korea launched more short-range ballistic missiles into the sea on Monday, and analysts are guessing it could try to launch a satellite into orbit tomorrow on the anniversary of the founding of the Korean People's Army. Other News •After two years of heated debate, the UK's parliament finally passed a bill that allows asylum-seekers to be deported to Rwanda. Human rights activists are united with some fiscal conservatives against the program, which would cost an estimated £1.8 million ($2.2 million) per deportee for the first 300 people expelled. Flights would start in July, but will probably be delayed or blocked by legal challenges. •Voters in Ecuador approved a referendum that gives Pres. Noboa even more authority to fight drug gangs. Noboa has already taken a hard stance against the gangs - he deployed the military against them in January - and voters apparently support it: nine of its 11 proposals look likely to pass once all votes are counted.
Open source reportOff Leash 2 April Update Iran Israel carried out a brazen strike on Iran's consulate in Damascus, Syria, killing seven Iranian military advisors - including three generals. Israel acknowledged the strike but rejected the notion that the building was a diplomatic facility and said it was a military building instead. The distinction is important because - as one NGO director noted - targeting a known diplomatic building would be "akin to targeting Iran on its own soil." Israel seems to be escalating its covert war on Iranian targets in a manner calculated to hinder Iran's offensive operations without drawing it and its proxies into all-out war. Indeed, Iran's response to the Damascus strikes was cautious: Tehran vowed revenge "at the appropriate time and place." Its proxies were more audacious in their revenge threats: the head of the Iraq-based, Iran-backed Hezbollah Brigades militia threatened to arm over 12,000 Jordanians to exact retribution on Israel for the Damascus strike. Israel and Gaza Israel's Knesset passed a law that will allow PM Netanyahu to temporarily block foreign media outlets from operating in the country on national security grounds, and Netanyahu said he will promptly use the new law to ban Al Jazeera, which he has accused of being "a Hamas mouthpiece" and a "terrorist channel" for its sympathetic coverage of Palestinian causes. The White House called the looming ban "concerning" for its challenge to the free press. Separately, the NGO World Central Kitchen (WCK) said an Israeli airstrike killed seven of its foreign national aid workers in Gaza. Israel said it was "carrying out an in-depth examination" of the "tragic incident," and it's already drawing criticism from the aid community. Ukraine and Russia Ukraine launched a drone assault on an oil refinery deep inside Russia in Tatarstan, which is over 600 miles (1,000 km) from the Ukrainian border. Local authorities said the attack caused minimal damage but later conceded several people were injured. China Chinese electronics firm Xiaomi rolled out its new, Porsche-looking Super Ultra 7 (SU7) electric vehicle yesterday, and surprised the market with 90,000 orders for it on the first day - even though it launched in a market already crowded with inexpensive competitors. Xiaomi shares rose 16% on news of its strong first day of sales, raising the firm's enterprise value above that of traditional automakers GM and Ford. DRC Pres. Tshisekedi appointed Judith Suminwa Tuluka to be DRC's first female prime minister. Tuluka was formerly DRC's planning minister, and will now be called upon to craft a plan to bring peace to the restive east of the country. North Korea North Korea fired a suspected intermediate-range ballistic missile into the sea off its east coast early this morning - its third this year. The UN is no longer monitoring the sanctions violations that helped supply North Korea with kit for building missiles like this, thanks to a recent Russian veto on a motion to extend the monitoring program. Some analysts linked Russia's veto to an alleged weapons procurement agreement between Moscow and Pyongyang.
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