Resolvable calls, priced against the market

Canada is expected to suffer more than the United States because its economy has less capacity to absorb the effects of reciprocal tariffs.

Resolves YES if, by November 24, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “Canada is expected to suffer more than the United States because its economy has less capacity to absorb the effects of reciprocal tariffs.” Otherwise it resolves NO.

Removal from the U.S. list is expected to reduce the risks and regulatory burdens of working and investing in Syria, potentially unlocking reconstruction funding.

Resolves YES if, by November 24, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “Removal from the U.S. list is expected to reduce the risks and regulatory burdens of working and investing in Syria, potentially unlocking reconstruction fun…” Otherwise it resolves NO.

A temporary Iran-Oman arrangement could permit limited navigation without fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz; unresolved fees and Tehran’s wider demands on Washington remain potential obstacles.

Resolves YES if, by November 24, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “A temporary Iran-Oman arrangement could permit limited navigation without fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz; unresolved fees and Tehran’s wider demands on…” Otherwise it resolves NO.

Delisting could reduce barriers to Syrian reconstruction funding.

Resolves YES if, by November 24, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “Delisting could reduce barriers to Syrian reconstruction funding.” Otherwise it resolves NO.

Decades of sanctions without a change in hardline behavior raise doubts that additional economic pain will produce negotiations.

Resolves YES if, by November 23, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “Decades of sanctions without a change in hardline behavior raise doubts that additional economic pain will produce negotiations.” Otherwise it resolves NO.

Russia has signaled misgivings, specifically that an expanded ban would hurt Sudan’s army more than the Rapid Support Forces.

Resolves YES if, by November 23, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “Russia has signaled misgivings, specifically that an expanded ban would hurt Sudan’s army more than the Rapid Support Forces.” Otherwise it resolves NO.

Economic pressure may not compel Iranian hardliners to negotiate.

Resolves YES if, by November 23, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “Economic pressure may not compel Iranian hardliners to negotiate.” Otherwise it resolves NO.

Russian concerns may obstruct proposed Sudan embargo.

Resolves YES if, by November 23, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “Russian concerns may obstruct proposed Sudan embargo.” Otherwise it resolves NO.

A nationwide embargo may be easier to enforce than the existing Darfur restrictions, but it requires Security Council approval.

Resolves YES if, by November 23, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “A nationwide embargo may be easier to enforce than the existing Darfur restrictions, but it requires Security Council approval.” Otherwise it resolves NO.

Resisting U.S. sanctions allows China to continue purchasing discounted Iranian oil while avoiding measures that could weaken a government antagonistic toward Washington.

Resolves YES if, by November 19, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “Resisting U.S. sanctions allows China to continue purchasing discounted Iranian oil while avoiding measures that could weaken a government antagonistic towar…” Otherwise it resolves NO.

The Hormuz corridor and prospective UAE embargo could intensify military and economic pressure on Iran, while developments in Ukraine, Gaza and North Korea create separate challenges involving political legitimacy, military accountability and U.S. diplomacy.

Resolves YES if, by November 18, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “The Hormuz corridor and prospective UAE embargo could intensify military and economic pressure on Iran, while developments in Ukraine, Gaza and North Korea c…” Otherwise it resolves NO.

UAE embargo could deepen Iran’s economic isolation.

Resolves YES if, by November 18, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “UAE embargo could deepen Iran’s economic isolation.” Otherwise it resolves NO.

Vigorous enforcement could significantly restrict Iranian access to imported goods, informal finance and sanctions-evasion channels.

Resolves YES if, by November 18, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “Vigorous enforcement could significantly restrict Iranian access to imported goods, informal finance and sanctions-evasion channels.” Otherwise it resolves NO.

Tough rhetoric may not preclude another Trump-Kim meeting.

Resolves YES if, by November 18, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “Tough rhetoric may not preclude another Trump-Kim meeting.” Otherwise it resolves NO.

A rumored eighth Trump-Kim meeting could still occur in the fall.

Resolves YES if, by November 18, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “A rumored eighth Trump-Kim meeting could still occur in the fall.” Otherwise it resolves NO.

Critics characterize Israeli military investigations as slow and unlikely to produce convictions, even in cases selected after substantial public scrutiny.

Resolves YES if, by November 18, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “Critics characterize Israeli military investigations as slow and unlikely to produce convictions, even in cases selected after substantial public scrutiny.” Otherwise it resolves NO.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu characterized the strikes as a warning against rumored Syrian plans to host Turkish troops at another air base near Aleppo, saying such a deployment would threaten Israeli security.

Resolves YES if, by November 17, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu characterized the strikes as a warning against rumored Syrian plans to host Turkish troops at another air base near Aleppo,…” Otherwise it resolves NO.

The brief extension did not provide businesses on either side of the border with the certainty that a signed interim agreement would offer.

Resolves YES if, by November 17, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “The brief extension did not provide businesses on either side of the border with the certainty that a signed interim agreement would offer.” Otherwise it resolves NO.

Fedorov’s election demand could challenge Zelensky’s leadership.

Resolves YES if, by November 17, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “Fedorov’s election demand could challenge Zelensky’s leadership.” Otherwise it resolves NO.

Fedorov’s popularity, association with Ukraine’s drone program and anticorruption drive, and demonstrations seeking his reinstatement could make his election demand the most serious challenge yet to Zelensky’s leadership.

Resolves YES if, by November 17, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “Fedorov’s popularity, association with Ukraine’s drone program and anticorruption drive, and demonstrations seeking his reinstatement could make his election…” Otherwise it resolves NO.

Capital flight may indicate rising domestic costs from the war.

Resolves YES if, by November 17, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “Capital flight may indicate rising domestic costs from the war.” Otherwise it resolves NO.

The renewed outflows could indicate that Ukraine is raising Russia’s cost of continuing the war and that public trust in Russia’s banking and financial systems is deteriorating.

Resolves YES if, by November 17, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “The renewed outflows could indicate that Ukraine is raising Russia’s cost of continuing the war and that public trust in Russia’s banking and financial syste…” Otherwise it resolves NO.

Kim is assessed as unlikely to scale back his arsenal or halt further nuclear work, while renewed dialogue could concern South Korea amid its refusal to support the U.S. war with Iran.

Resolves YES if, by November 16, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “Kim is assessed as unlikely to scale back his arsenal or halt further nuclear work, while renewed dialogue could concern South Korea amid its refusal to supp…” Otherwise it resolves NO.

Threats may seek to alter Oman’s position in Hormuz negotiations.

Resolves YES if, by November 16, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “Threats may seek to alter Oman’s position in Hormuz negotiations.” Otherwise it resolves NO.

Trump may be seeking to pressure Oman to leave the talks with Iran or advocate terms more favorable to the United States.

Resolves YES if, by November 16, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “Trump may be seeking to pressure Oman to leave the talks with Iran or advocate terms more favorable to the United States.” Otherwise it resolves NO.

Renewed North Korea diplomacy assessed as unlikely to constrain Kim’s arsenal.

Resolves YES if, by November 16, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “Renewed North Korea diplomacy assessed as unlikely to constrain Kim’s arsenal.” Otherwise it resolves NO.

Conflict-management efforts involving Iran, Gaza and Lebanon are all under strain, while the reduction of U.S.-South Korea exercises suggests that disagreement over the Iran war may also be affecting Washington's alliance posture in East Asia.

Resolves YES if, by November 15, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “Conflict-management efforts involving Iran, Gaza and Lebanon are all under strain, while the reduction of U.S.-South Korea exercises suggests that disagreeme…” Otherwise it resolves NO.

Kushner's meetings may be intended to revive the disarmament proposal announced the previous month, but both Hamas and Israel rejected it and Netanyahu is assessed as unlikely to soften his position before the October election.

Resolves YES if, by November 15, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “Kushner's meetings may be intended to revive the disarmament proposal announced the previous month, but both Hamas and Israel rejected it and Netanyahu is as…” Otherwise it resolves NO.

Lebanon escalation could complicate planned eighth round of talks.

Resolves YES if, by November 15, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “Lebanon escalation could complicate planned eighth round of talks.” Otherwise it resolves NO.

The confrontation could complicate another round of Israel-Lebanon talks planned for next month, despite Netanyahu's office expressing hope that the strikes would jump-start negotiations.

Resolves YES if, by November 15, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “The confrontation could complicate another round of Israel-Lebanon talks planned for next month, despite Netanyahu's office expressing hope that the strikes…” Otherwise it resolves NO.