Each assessment becomes a dated, resolvable call with an explicit probability and a plain resolution criterion, then sits beside the live Polymarket price so the edge — and the track record — is measurable.
Scoreboard
Provable calls, scored over time
256 reports scanned
471
Open calls
8
Priced vs market
0
Resolved calls
—
Hit rate
Track record
How the resolved calls scored
A call is scored when its matched market settles. Hit-rate measures directional accuracy; calibration checks whether a stated probability matches how often those calls actually came true.
No calls have resolved yet
A track record appears once matched markets settle. Nothing is scored until then.
Live edge
Where Off Leash diverges from the market
8 priced
80%Off Leash
+77edge
3%Market
Abiy Ahmed
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s ruling Prosperity Party will win the parliamentary election, arguing that parts of Amhara and Tigray will not vote and that leading rivals have been sidelined or jailed.
Resolves YES if, by August 30, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s ruling Prosperity Party will win the parliamentary election, arguing that parts of Amhara and Tigray will not vote and that leadi…” Otherwise it resolves NO.
Iran’s direct and proxy conflicts with Israel form an integrated regional campaign, adding parties and issues that will make a durable truce more difficult.
Resolves YES if, by September 7, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “Iran’s direct and proxy conflicts with Israel form an integrated regional campaign, adding parties and issues that will make a durable truce more difficult.” Otherwise it resolves NO.
Iranian, Hezbollah and Houthi actions are components of one broader conflict with Israel and this structure will make a durable agreement harder to negotiate.
Resolves YES if, by September 7, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “Iranian, Hezbollah and Houthi actions are components of one broader conflict with Israel and this structure will make a durable agreement harder to negotiate.” Otherwise it resolves NO.
The post, citing a former UN mediator via The New York Times, assesses that both parties still prefer negotiations because renewed full-scale war would be highly costly.
Resolves YES if, by August 26, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “The post, citing a former UN mediator via The New York Times, assesses that both parties still prefer negotiations because renewed full-scale war would be hi…” Otherwise it resolves NO.
Withdrawing 5,000 personnel would be less drastic than it appears because it would return the U.S. military presence in Europe to its approximate level before the Ukraine war.
Resolves YES if, by August 2, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “Withdrawing 5,000 personnel would be less drastic than it appears because it would return the U.S. military presence in Europe to its approximate level befor…” Otherwise it resolves NO.
A proposed territorial handover in southern Lebanon could advance an U.S.-Iran withdrawal condition, but that a continuing Israeli border-buffer presence might remain unacceptable to Iran.
Resolves YES if, by September 23, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “A proposed territorial handover in southern Lebanon could advance an U.S.-Iran withdrawal condition, but that a continuing Israeli border-buffer presence mig…” Otherwise it resolves NO.
The emerging U.S.–Iran framework remains vulnerable because its terms are undisclosed, the parties may interpret their obligations differently, and Israel’s stated intention to remain in southern Lebanon conflicts with a condition attributed to Iran.
Resolves YES if, by September 14, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “The emerging U.S.–Iran framework remains vulnerable because its terms are undisclosed, the parties may interpret their obligations differently, and Israel’s…” Otherwise it resolves NO.
Israel's increased offensive activity may indicate Prime Minister Netanyahu expects Trump to seek restraint on other fronts to preserve a U.S.–Iran truce.
Resolves YES if, by August 27, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “Israel's increased offensive activity may indicate Prime Minister Netanyahu expects Trump to seek restraint on other fronts to preserve a U.S.–Iran truce.” Otherwise it resolves NO.
“If Trump doesn't walk back his new condition, MBS will certainly back out of this week's deal.”
Resolves YES if, by October 22, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: ““If Trump doesn't walk back his new condition, MBS will certainly back out of this week's deal.”” Otherwise it resolves NO.
Crown Prince MBS will abandon the agreement unless Trump removes the normalization condition, citing Saudi opposition to recognizing Israel during the Gaza war.
Resolves YES if, by October 22, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “Crown Prince MBS will abandon the agreement unless Trump removes the normalization condition, citing Saudi opposition to recognizing Israel during the Gaza war.” Otherwise it resolves NO.
Resolves YES if, by October 22, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “Saudi Arabia may withdraw from nuclear agreement.” Otherwise it resolves NO.
Resolves YES if, by October 21, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “Houthis are likely to disregard the U.S. warning.” Otherwise it resolves NO.
Targeting a major consumer platform extends the effects of the war to Russian civilians and businesses, while arguing that Wildberries merchandise may support Russian military activity.
Resolves YES if, by October 21, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “Targeting a major consumer platform extends the effects of the war to Russian civilians and businesses, while arguing that Wildberries merchandise may suppor…” Otherwise it resolves NO.
Analysts’ concern that Saudi fuel-production capacity could enable diversion toward weapons and could affect Iranian expectations in future nuclear negotiations with Washington.
Resolves YES if, by October 21, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “Analysts’ concern that Saudi fuel-production capacity could enable diversion toward weapons and could affect Iranian expectations in future nuclear negotiati…” Otherwise it resolves NO.
The test incident is evidence that advanced models could expose vulnerabilities faster than defenders can remediate them and may be becoming harder for humans to control.
Resolves YES if, by October 21, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “The test incident is evidence that advanced models could expose vulnerabilities faster than defenders can remediate them and may be becoming harder for human…” Otherwise it resolves NO.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned the Houthis against joining their benefactor’s war; the group is unlikely to comply.
Resolves YES if, by October 21, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned the Houthis against joining their benefactor’s war; the group is unlikely to comply.” Otherwise it resolves NO.
Prospective Saudi nuclear deal will concern Israel.
Resolves YES if, by October 20, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “Prospective Saudi nuclear deal will concern Israel.” Otherwise it resolves NO.
Israeli objections based on proliferation concerns; some Israelis will view the deal as forfeiting leverage previously associated with Saudi diplomatic recognition.
Resolves YES if, by October 20, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “Israeli objections based on proliferation concerns; some Israelis will view the deal as forfeiting leverage previously associated with Saudi diplomatic recog…” Otherwise it resolves NO.
Questions remain about whether DRC dialogue will resolve opposition grievance.
Resolves YES if, by October 20, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “Questions remain about whether DRC dialogue will resolve opposition grievance.” Otherwise it resolves NO.
Doubt remains over that the promise of talks will satisfy Tshisekedi's critics while their allegation that he is pursuing a constitutional maneuver to remain in office continues unresolved.
Resolves YES if, by October 20, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “Doubt remains over that the promise of talks will satisfy Tshisekedi's critics while their allegation that he is pursuing a constitutional maneuver to remain…” Otherwise it resolves NO.
France's youth social-media restrictions are likely to be ineffective.
Resolves YES if, by October 20, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “France's youth social-media restrictions are likely to be ineffective.” Otherwise it resolves NO.
A 45% betting-market probability of Federov being reinstated that week.
Resolves YES if, by October 20, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “A 45% betting-market probability of Federov being reinstated that week.” Otherwise it resolves NO.
The post depicts domestic political pressure forcing or threatening government responses in Ukraine, India and the DRC, while prospective U.S.-Saudi nuclear cooperation could create friction with Israel.
Resolves YES if, by October 20, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “The post depicts domestic political pressure forcing or threatening government responses in Ukraine, India and the DRC, while prospective U.S.-Saudi nuclear…” Otherwise it resolves NO.
Zelensky may accept resentment among Syrskyi's supporters to preserve momentum attributed to Federov's drone program.
Resolves YES if, by October 20, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “Zelensky may accept resentment among Syrskyi's supporters to preserve momentum attributed to Federov's drone program.” Otherwise it resolves NO.
Indian education protests could expand into broader opposition.
Resolves YES if, by October 20, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “Indian education protests could expand into broader opposition.” Otherwise it resolves NO.
France's restrictions are similarly unlikely to work.
Resolves YES if, by October 20, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “France's restrictions are similarly unlikely to work.” Otherwise it resolves NO.
Electoral abolition could prompt greater U.S. pressure.
Resolves YES if, by October 19, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “Electoral abolition could prompt greater U.S. pressure.” Otherwise it resolves NO.
Abolishing elections could give Washington a reason to apply pressure comparable to its campaigns against Cuba and Venezuela.
Resolves YES if, by October 19, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “Abolishing elections could give Washington a reason to apply pressure comparable to its campaigns against Cuba and Venezuela.” Otherwise it resolves NO.
Saudi Arabia could bypass the claimed blockade by using western ports and shipping north through the Suez Canal, and that Houthi messaging is aimed primarily at a domestic audience.
Resolves YES if, by October 19, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “Saudi Arabia could bypass the claimed blockade by using western ports and shipping north through the Suez Canal, and that Houthi messaging is aimed primarily…” Otherwise it resolves NO.
The account assesses that Burnham would prioritize relations with the United States, economic revival, and management of Britain’s immigration debate.
Resolves YES if, by October 18, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “The account assesses that Burnham would prioritize relations with the United States, economic revival, and management of Britain’s immigration debate.” Otherwise it resolves NO.
If accurate, the combination of direct U.S.-Iran combat, casualties, attacks on shipping, and possible Houthi intervention would indicate a widening regional confrontation with significant risks to U.S. forces and two critical maritime chokepoints.
Resolves YES if, by October 18, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “If accurate, the combination of direct U.S.-Iran combat, casualties, attacks on shipping, and possible Houthi intervention would indicate a widening regional…” Otherwise it resolves NO.
The interim government is struggling for legitimacy following its response to two earthquakes and may hope the opposition can contribute governance ideas.
Resolves YES if, by October 14, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “The interim government is struggling for legitimacy following its response to two earthquakes and may hope the opposition can contribute governance ideas.” Otherwise it resolves NO.
According to Goldman Sachs, an estimate that existing and planned infrastructure could carry more than 45% of prewar Gulf oil exports by the end of 2027 and more than 60% by the end of 2028.
Resolves YES if, by October 13, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “According to Goldman Sachs, an estimate that existing and planned infrastructure could carry more than 45% of prewar Gulf oil exports by the end of 2027 and…” Otherwise it resolves NO.
Analysts fear the Yemen conflict could widen, with the Houthis attacking Gulf countries from the south while Iran applies pressure from the east.
Resolves YES if, by October 13, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “Analysts fear the Yemen conflict could widen, with the Houthis attacking Gulf countries from the south while Iran applies pressure from the east.” Otherwise it resolves NO.
Resolves YES if, by October 8, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “Burnham will become prime minister on July 20.” Otherwise it resolves NO.
Burnham will secure the Labour leadership and become the next UK prime minister.
Resolves YES if, by October 8, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “Burnham will secure the Labour leadership and become the next UK prime minister.” Otherwise it resolves NO.
This objective will remain elusive while JNIM-FLA forces retain the initiative.
Resolves YES if, by October 8, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “This objective will remain elusive while JNIM-FLA forces retain the initiative.” Otherwise it resolves NO.
Reusable launch capability could strengthen China’s competition with SpaceX.
Resolves YES if, by October 8, 2026, the outcome asserted here is confirmed by reporting or a settled market: “Reusable launch capability could strengthen China’s competition with SpaceX.” Otherwise it resolves NO.