U.S.-Iran diplomacy stalls as Lebanon violence, scaled-back Korea drills and Ceuta migration pressure add strain

Off Leash update 17 August 2026

COMING UP THIS WEEK •The U.S. and South Korea kick off 11 days of annual military drills today. Pres. Trump ordered this year's edition to be scaled back (see SOUTH KOREA section below). •Today was the deadline for the U.S. and Iran to finalize a broader deal to end their war, according to the temporary truce they signed in June. That agreement broke down less than three weeks later, and negotiations towards a full ceasefire deal never seriously kicked off. •China hosts the World Robot Conference Wednesday through Sunday. •Many Canadian exporters will be "liberated" from the U.S. market on Wednesday, when new, 50% tariffs on a wide range of goods go into effect. Pres. Trump announced the new levies last month, citing examples of unfair trade barriers Canada and its provinces have introduced against U.S.-made alcohol, automobiles, and cheese. Some have suggested the new tariffs are a bargaining chip to entice Canada to lift its restrictions, and negotiations are ongoing.

COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,252/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $34,7/ton •Bitcoin: $63,541 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $14,160/ton •Ethereum: $1,904 •Gold: $4,399/toz •Lead: $1,895/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.65/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $81.83/barrel •Zinc: $3,757/ton

GAZA •Pres. Trump's envoy and son-in-law, Jared Kushner, met Hamas leaders in Egypt and will next visit Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. •Kushner probably hopes his talks with both sides will help revive the disarmament deal that Pres. Trump announced last month, which both Hamas and Israel quickly rejected. However, it's highly unlikely that Netanyahu will soften his position as his uphill bid for reelection in October draws closer.

LEBANON •Netanyahu said that Hezbollah militants attacked Israeli soldiers in southern Lebanon on Saturday, seriously injuring three of them. (Hezbollah denied targeting Israeli soldiers and accused Netanyahu of instigating the skirmish "in order to strengthen his domestic political position" ahead of the October election.) •Israel's military then returned fire, targeting Hezbollah compounds that were only later discovered to be harboring civilians alongside militants. Netanyahu's office accused Hezbollah of "deliberately put[ting] civilians in that military compound." •Lebanon's Prime Minister, Nawaf Salam, said at least 11 people - including three children - were killed in Israel's strikes, and criticized Israel's "extremely dangerous" escalation. •The row could complicate plans for an eighth round of talks between Israel and Lebanon next month - despite Netanyahu's office's paradoxical hope that Israel's strikes would "jump-start" talks and "not do the opposite."

IRAN •The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran's hardline leadership never really intended to pursue peace with the U.S. when it signed an MOU agreeing to a temporary ceasefire in June, and instead secretly embarked on a plan to expand the war and make it more expensive for the U.S. to fight it. •Whether planned or not, the hawks can now claim success on both objectives. Iran's proxies in Yemen and Iraq have joined the fight, and Americans are increasingly questioning whether the war is worth the rising costs of fighting it - both in terms of record defense spending and higher gas prices at the pump. •Pres. Trump is convinced his war is worth its costs. He told a weekend rally: "For you to pay a tiny little bit more for your gasoline, you're doing it so that a very evil country cannot have a nuclear weapon."

SOUTH KOREA •Angered by South Korea's reluctance to join his war in Iran, Pres. Trump ordered this year's edition of annual U.S.-South Korea military exercises to scale back. •Trump also cited his "very good relationship" with Pyongyang's nemesis, North Korea's Kim Jong Un. Trump and Kim have met three times and exchanged at least 27 letters as they "fell in love" (in Trump's words). Trump posted a photo of himself with Kim as he announced the reduction of military exercises with the South.

CEUTA •Another surge of migrants attempted to cross from Morocco into the Spanish exclave of Ceuta on Saturday, but this time Moroccan border police did their job and repelled them. •Morocco faced flak - or at least some tough questions - after its guards did little to repel the much larger wave of over 72,000 migrants who overwhelmed the same crossing on July 30. •Both Spain and Morocco appear eager to move on and avoid a repeat of that debacle - hence Morocco's proactive border policing and Spain's indefinite deployment of an additional 500 mainland police to Ceuta. •Spain also reinforced the crossing area with a new maritime barrier, which may have helped deter more migrants from joining this wave of attempted crossings.

U.S. •The U.S. FBI reported the largest year-to-year drop in violent crime on record for 2025. Reported murders and robberies both dropped by 18% compared to 2024, and overall violent crime fell by 9%. •U.S. violent crime rates have been consistently declining since 2020, but the trend accelerated noticeably in 2025.