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China’s economy grew 4.3% from the second quarter of 2025 to the second quarter of 2026, below a stated government target of 4.5–5.0%. The slowdown partly comes from the Iran war and weak domestic demand and investment, with technology exports providing an offset.
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China’s economy grew 4.3% from the second quarter of 2025 to the second quarter of 2026, below a stated government target of 4.5–5.0%. The slowdown partly comes from the Iran war and weak domestic demand and investment, with technology exports providing an offset.
Open source reportGeography
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China dossier
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China
Xiaomi received 90,000 first-day orders for its SU7 electric vehicle and that its shares rose 16 percent, pushing its stated enterprise value above those of General Motors and Ford.
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Chronology
New data showed that China's economy grew just 4.3% between Q2 2025 and Q2 2026.
China’s economy grew 4.3% from the second quarter of 2025 to the second quarter of 2026, below a stated government target of 4.5–5.0%. The slowdown partly comes from the Iran war and weak domestic demand and investment, with technology exports providing an offset.
Open source reportThe China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation launched a Long March 10B rocket earlier today and - for the first time - recovered the first stage.
The China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation launched a Long March 10B on July 10 and recovered its first stage for the first time.
Open source reportLineShine, a Chinese supercomputer, was anointed the world's most powerful supercomputer in the biannual TOP500 ranking, displacing HP's El Capitan.
LineShine displaced Hewlett Packard Enterprise’s El Capitan as the highest-ranked system in the TOP500 list and had the list’s greatest power consumption.
Open source reportAccording to a new report by Wirescreen, China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) repeatedly tried to buy Nvidia's cutting-edge AI chips from at least 2019 to 2025 - even after the U.S. restricted chip sales to foreign rivals like China.
Wirescreen as finding that the PLA repeatedly attempted to purchase advanced Nvidia AI chips between 2019 and 2025. The report could not confirm whether the PLA received or uses the chips.
Open source reportThe lower target signals that [Beijing] is willing to tolerate slower near-term growth while it focuses on longer-term structural fixes.
An analyst as assessing that Beijing is accepting weaker near-term growth while prioritizing longer-term structural changes.
Open source reportChina's... National People's Congress, set the country's 2026 GDP growth target at 4.5-5.0% yesterday, marking the first time in over 30 years that Beijing has aimed for less than 5% growth.
The National People’s Congress set a 4.5–5.0 percent GDP growth target for 2026, describing it as Beijing’s first target below 5 percent in more than three decades.
Open source reportNo reason was given for the removals, but they appear to be part of Xi Jinping's ever-widening crackdown on corruption.
The removals appear connected to Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption crackdown; critics’ contention that such purges also sideline rivals and dissenters.
Open source reportChina is seeking to supplant the U.S. as the lead peacemaker between Thailand and Cambodia... “China’s efforts to promote peace and dialogue never impose on others or overstep its bounds.”
That Beijing is seeking to supplant Washington is the principal mediator between Thailand and Cambodia and interprets a Chinese Foreign Ministry statement as contrasting China’s approach with that of the United States.
Open source reportChina stepped in to host the next round of talks on a more permanent ceasefire yesterday and today.
China hosted talks on December 29-30 concerning a more permanent Thailand-Cambodia ceasefire after Trump claimed a role in securing an initial 72-hour truce.
Open source reportChina slapped provisional anti-subsidy duties of 21.9% to 42.7% on European dairy products to - in Beijing's view - level the playing field between the domestic dairy industry and subsidized European imports.
China set provisional anti-subsidy duties of 21.9% to 42.7% on European dairy imports. Beijing framed the measure as leveling competition and that the European Commission called it unjustified.
Open source reportPres. Trump said he would allow semiconductor giant Nvidia to export its H200 chips to "approved customers" in China
President Trump would permit Nvidia H200 chip exports to approved Chinese customers for AI development. It speculates that the chip’s age and a 25% U.S. government royalty influenced the decision.
Open source reportXi's use of bold language - "strong country," "great enterprise," "high quality," etc. - has risen dramatically, while he's reduced his use of fluffier and feelier words like "hope," "care," and "opinions."
An analysis of 14,000 speeches and writings since 2013 found Xi Jinping increasingly using terms associated with strength and ambition while reducing softer language.
Open source reportBessent's comments felt like a close parallel to the effect that U.S. export controls on advanced computing chips have had on Chinese chipmaking, where supply restrictions forced fast-track domestic innovators to quickly catch up
China’s rare-earth threat resembles the effect of U.S. advanced-chip controls, arguing that import restrictions can accelerate domestic innovation and alternative sourcing.
Open source reportChina's DeepSeek... published a new, peer-reviewed study proving its claims that its groundbreaking R1 model didn't rely on rivals for training and cost just $294k to create.
DeepSeek published a peer-reviewed study claiming that its R1 model did not rely on rival models for training and cost $294,000 to develop.
Open source reportChina's markets regulator ruled that chipmaking giant Nvidia's 2020 acquisition of Mellanox Technologies violated antitrust laws.
China’s markets regulator ruled that Nvidia’s 2020 acquisition of Mellanox Technologies violated antitrust laws. Speculation that the ruling could be retaliation for U.S. tariff pressure related to China’s purchases of Russian oil.
Open source reportRussia's Pres. Putin told Slovak Prime Minister Fico that he'd reached a "mutual understanding" on Ukraine with Pres. Trump
Putin told Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico that he and Trump reached a “mutual understanding” during their Alaska meeting. He also repeated that the conflict’s “root causes” must be eliminated, which as diminishing prospects for an imminent settlement.
Open source reportOn Wednesday, China will host a Victory Day parade. North Korea's Kim Jong Un will attend, and prepared for his trip by visiting a new North Korean missile production line
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un will attend China’s Wednesday parade and recently visited a new North Korean missile-production line.
Open source reportChina steered in the opposite direction and announced new restrictions on exporting eight electric vehicle (EV) battery technologies that give its cheap EVs a price edge over foreign rivals.
China announced export restrictions covering eight electric-vehicle battery technologies. The controls will protect Chinese manufacturers’ technical advantage while complicating overseas production.
Open source reportSeparately, China introduced a new "digital ID" program today. The government says the program will improve "information security," but privacy advocates say it will facilitate
China introduced a digital ID program and that the government presented it as an information-security measure. The supplied text cuts off before completing the privacy advocates’ criticism.
Open source reportsuggesting that Beijing's consumer subsidies, monetary easing, and infrastructure spending successfully offset the negative effects of higher U.S. tariffs.
The growth figure is evidence that consumer subsidies, monetary easing and infrastructure spending offset the effects of higher U.S. tariffs.
Open source reportNew Chinese data showed 5.2% year-on-year GDP growth in the second quarter. That was better than analysts had expected
Chinese data showed 5.2% year-on-year GDP growth in the second quarter, exceeding analysts’ expectations.
Open source reportThe latest Chinese Communist Party (CCP) census confirmed that the CCP has surpassed 100 million members.
The party continued growing in 2024 but that its growth rate slowed for a third consecutive year amid efforts to expel inactive or corrupt members.
Open source reportThis summit will set next year's economic agenda, which analysts expect will focus on implementing a new "moderately loose" monetary policy to boost growth and stop deflation.
The Chinese Communist Party’s annual economic conference would set the next year’s agenda; cited analysts expected a moderately loose monetary policy intended to support growth and counter deflation.
Open source reportThe Financial Times (FT) reported that China's Defense Minister, Adm. Dong Jun, is being investigated for corruption... China dismissed the FT report about Dong as "shadow chasing"
A Financial Times report that Defense Minister Admiral Dong Jun was under investigation for corruption; China’s dismissal of the report as “shadow chasing.” Dong was passed over for an anticipated Central Military Commission appointment.
Open source reportNorth Korea's () presence in Ukraine could also frustrate China, which has a long friendship with North Korea but wants to be seen as a peacemaker
That North Korean participation in Russia’s war could undermine Beijing’s effort to portray itself is a peacemaker, given China’s treaty relationship with North Korea and partnership with Russia.
Open source reportSeparately, China announced new stimulus measures and interest rate cuts to boost consumer spending and property investment. The central bank had aimed for 5% GDP growth this year, but that now looks ambitious.
China announced measures intended to support consumer spending and property investment, while assessing that the stated 5% annual growth objective appeared ambitious.
Open source reportthe fact that there was an announcement at all suggests an emboldened missile program (it usually conducts tests quietly deep inside its territory and doesn't comment on their outcomes).
China’s unusual decision to announce the test suggests an emboldened missile program.
Open source reportForeign direct investment in China hit a record low of negative $14.8 billion in the second quarter.
Foreign direct investment in China fell to negative $14.8 billion in the second quarter. Authorities removed publishing and traditional-medicine production from foreign-investment restrictions, leaving 29 restricted industries; its suggestion that the changes responded to the investment data is an assessment.
Open source report“With a declining birth rate, Beijing probably hopes to keep enough young'uns working in China to support an aging population.”
That Beijing may intend to retain more young people in China is its birth rate declines and its population ages.
Open source report“China said it would stop allowing foreigners to adopt Chinese babies unless they're blood relatives or step relatives of the adoptee.”
China will stop permitting foreigners to adopt Chinese children unless the prospective adopter is a blood relative or step-relative.
Open source reportChina used a Long March 6A carrier rocket to launch the first 18 of the "Thousand Sails" internet satellites that will eventually form a 15,000-satellite constellation to rival SpaceX's Starlink.
A Long March 6A rocket launched 18 internet satellites as the initial deployment of a planned 15,000-satellite Chinese constellation intended to compete with SpaceX’s Starlink.
Open source reportChina finally bowed to U.S. pressure and enacted restrictions on three chemicals used to make fentanyl... analysts believe China will point to this minor concession to demand larger U.S. concessions
China enacted controls on three chemicals used to make fentanyl following U.S. pressure. An estimate of more than 100,000 U.S. synthetic-opioid deaths in 2023 and Beijing could seek larger U.S. concessions in return.
Open source reportChina expelled two former Defense Ministers - Li Shangfu and Wei Fenghe - from the Communist Party for corruption.
Former defense ministers Li Shangfu and Wei Fenghe were expelled from the Communist Party over corruption. State-media allegations that Li sought personal benefits and paid and received large bribes.
Open source reportChina added three U.S. defense contractors that sell to Taiwan - General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, General Dynamics Land Systems and Boeing Defense, Space & Security - to its list of "unreliable entities".
China added General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, General Dynamics Land Systems and Boeing Defense, Space & Security to its unreliable-entities list because of sales to Taiwan.
Open source reportChina vowed to retaliate against new U.S. tariffs on electric vehicles (EVs) and other novel technologies with "resolute measures"
China promised “resolute measures” against new U.S. tariffs on electric vehicles and other technologies. Countertariffs, export restrictions and boycotts are possible—but not confirmed—responses.
Open source reportRussia announced that Pres. Putin will visit China this Thursday and Friday... Pres. Xi has met (either virtually or one-on-one in person) with Putin over 40 times since 2013
Russia announced that President Vladimir Putin would visit China on Thursday and Friday. According to The Economist, a claim that Xi Jinping had met Putin more than 40 times since 2013.
Open source reportAnd China will probably retaliate.
China will probably retaliate against the new U.S. tariff measures but provides no details about a potential response.
Open source reportChinese cobalt reached its lowest price since April 2016 - $29,065 per ton...because of oversupply caused by a rapid expansion in Chinese processing capacity.
The post gives a price of $29,065 per metric ton for minimum 99.8% cobalt and attributes the decline to processing-capacity expansion and oversupply. China processes 70–80% of global cobalt.
Open source reportU.S. SecState Blinken will visit China this week with a warning to Beijing to stop Chinese companies from helping Russia make military hardware.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will visit China and warn Beijing to stop Chinese companies from helping Russia manufacture military hardware.
Open source reporteconomists say its emergence now is evidence of a lopsided economic recovery based on exports rather than internal growth.
China’s nominal GDP grew 4.2% year over year, below real GDP growth, and interprets the difference as a 1.1% decline in prices. Economists assessing this as evidence of a recovery driven more by exports than domestic growth.
Open source reportNew data showed that China's real GDP grew 1.6% in Q1 2024 vs. Q4 2023, and 5.3% year on year - thanks in part to a new focus on exporting goods to make up for weak domestic spending.
China’s real GDP grew 1.6% quarter over quarter and 5.3% year over year in the first quarter of 2024. Part of the growth comes from exports offsetting weak domestic spending; the resulting flow of lower-priced goods is pressuring foreign manufacturers.
Open source reportFitch downgraded its long-term outlook for China's sovereign debt from stable to negative based on analysts' expectations that the government will boost its borrowing in an effort to jump start economic growth.
Fitch changed China’s long-term sovereign-debt outlook from stable to negative over expectations of increased government borrowing. Beijing rejected the concerns and described local hidden debts as manageable.
Open source reportChinese electronics firm Xiaomi rolled out its new... Super Ultra 7 (SU7) electric vehicle yesterday, and surprised the market with 90,000 orders for it on the first day... Xiaomi shares rose 16% on news of its strong first day of sales, raising the firm's enterprise value above that of traditional automakers GM and Ford.
Xiaomi received 90,000 first-day orders for its SU7 electric vehicle and that its shares rose 16 percent, pushing its stated enterprise value above those of General Motors and Ford.
Open source report