Iran Escalation, Chinese Rocket Recovery, UK Leadership Moves, and Fighting in Mali

Off Leash update 10 July 2026

IRAN •The U.S. and Iran were due to resume talks towards a lasting peace deal today - now that Iran has laid late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to rest - but they're busy exchanging fire instead of words. •Yesterday, Iran targeted Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, and Qatar in its largest barrage yet this week, and the U.S. reportedly struck a site near Iran's only nuclear power plant at Bushehr. •In the background, Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi - a relative moderate - wrote on X that he's been speaking with his counterparts in Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Oman; and had also called Pakistani army chief Field Marshal Munir, who has been one of the main mediators between Iran and the U.S. Araghchi's diplomatic outreach suggests that moderates like him are seeking an off ramp even as hardliners escalate their aggressive rhetoric. •The hardliners feel that the U.S. has taken advantage of an interim ceasefire to chip away at Iran's negotiating leverage while boosting its own position - e.g., by tasking Lebanon with reining in Hezbollah instead of offering Iran a concession in exchange for taming its proxy.

CHINA •The China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation launched a Long March 10B rocket earlier today and - for the first time - recovered the first stage. •First stage recovery is a technique that SpaceX pioneered to make its rockets (partly) reusable - and thus far cheaper to launch. That cost efficiency has enabled SpaceX to become dominant in the space cargo market: it now accounts for 80-90% of all Earth-to-space payload. •China aims to challenge that dominance now that it, too, can recover first stages.

UK •Former Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham secured the support of 322 of his Labour party's 403 MPs, putting him just one vote short of the 323 votes he needs to decisively win his party leadership bid. Burnham is running unopposed and is likely to secure that final vote - and his party's leadership - next week. As a result, he'll become the UK's next prime minister on July 20. •Meanwhile, populist leader Nigel Farage must wish he, too, was running unopposed. Instead, he faces Count Binface - a man in a trash can costume who claims to be an intergalactic warrior - in the snap special election Farage called last month to let voters judge him on accusations of impropriety.

MALI •A motley coalition of Al Qaeda-linked Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) jihadists and Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) Tuareg separatists attacked a column of over 200 Russian Africa Corps personnel and 100 Malian soldiers near the northern town of Tabankort yesterday. •The Russian contingent was heading to Anefis to reinforce another Russian-Malian fighting force holding out at a military camp in the city of Anefis since the rest of the city fell to JNIM-FLA control in April. •The holdouts are desperate to keep a foothold in Anefis because they hope to use it as a base for an eventual attempt to recapture the regional hub of Kidal from the FLA. That goal will remain elusive as long as the jihadists-rebels have Russian-backed government forces on their back foot.