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2 direct mentions across 2 briefings, with 2 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
Pakistani officials said Field Marshal Munir’s recent visit to Tehran made “significant progress” toward ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Unverified development · updated through
Pakistani officials said Field Marshal Munir’s recent visit to Tehran made “significant progress” toward ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Open source reportChronology
Off Leash update 25 August 2026 IRAN •U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a package of new punitive measures against Iran as part of what he dubbed Operation Economic Outcast, but Bessent himself acknowledged that the new penalties were more of a "warning shot" than the "economic D-Day" he'd threatened to unleash on Iran. •The measures Bessent announced are indeed minor. His Treasury Department expanded its ability to punish foreign companies helping five specific sectors of Iran's economy: digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping. It also imposed sanctions on over 60 individuals and entities linked to Iran's missile and nuclear programs who were somehow not already blacklisted. And it plans to sanction more entities - including an unspecified large financial institution - by the end of this week. •But the new package stopped far short of imposing secondary sanctions on Iran's trading partners. Instead of penalizing other countries for trading with Iran, Bessent said the Trump administration plans to adopt a gentler approach of simply asking world leaders to kindly "cease their interactions with Iran." •That soft pressure will work with some nations - like the UAE, which announced a total trade embargo on Iran last week. But Iran's largest trading partner, China, has already signalled that it has no interest in helping the U.S. cripple Iran's economy. •Some question whether any level of economic pain will force the Iranian regime's hardliners to negotiate after decades of sanctions failed to change them. Many of them probably still agree with what their founding Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khomenei, said back in Sep. 1979: "No wise person can imagine that we sacrificed our blood so that melons would become cheap! [That] we gave our youth so that housing would become affordable … It is for Islam that a person can give up his life. Our saints also gave up their lives for Islam, not for economics. Economics is not worthy of this." •Meanwhile, Pakistani officials said Field Marshal Munir's recent trip to Tehran had made "significant progress" towards ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. UKRAINE •UK Prime Minister Burnham is using his first foreign trip since taking office to offer bold support for Ukraine. He announced that the UK has delivered technical blueprints for Ukraine to use to build Scalp missile components, and is reportedly planning to visit the U.S. next month to rally Washington's support for Kyiv. •Russia isn't happy. A Kremlin spokesman accused Burnham and Britain of being "hell bent on pouring oil on a fire and plotting to prevent any kind of peace process," HAITI •Gang members attacked a church in the Port-au-Prince suburb of Kenscoff late Sunday, killing at least 47 of the displaced people who had taken refuge from exactly this kind of gang violence. •Survivors largely blamed the UN run Gang Suppression Force for failing to adequately protect civilians or even build a base in the area despite warning signs. The government belatedly pledged to reinforce security. SUDAN •During a UN Security Council meeting, U.S. envoy Massoud Boulos proposed expanding the arms embargo on Sudan's Darfur region to cover the entire country, with the aim of forcing the government and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) to negotiate an end to the civil war they've been fighting for four years. •The current embargo on Darfur has been in effect since July 2004, but both the army and the RSF continue to import weapons from abroad to devastate Darfur. Boulos seems to think that a nationwide embargo would be easier to enforce, and he's probably right. •However, an expanded embargo must first pass a UN Security Council (UNSC) vote, and Russia - which has veto power over UNSC votes - has already signalled it has misgivings about a nationwide embargo. [Specifically, the Kremlin voiced concern that an expanded ban would hurt the army more than the RSF.]
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 July 2026 IRAN •The U.S. and Iran were due to resume talks towards a lasting peace deal today - now that Iran has laid late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to rest - but they're busy exchanging fire instead of words. •Yesterday, Iran targeted Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, and Qatar in its largest barrage yet this week, and the U.S. reportedly struck a site near Iran's only nuclear power plant at Bushehr. •In the background, Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi - a relative moderate - wrote on X that he's been speaking with his counterparts in Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Oman; and had also called Pakistani army chief Field Marshal Munir, who has been one of the main mediators between Iran and the U.S. Araghchi's diplomatic outreach suggests that moderates like him are seeking an off ramp even as hardliners escalate their aggressive rhetoric. •The hardliners feel that the U.S. has taken advantage of an interim ceasefire to chip away at Iran's negotiating leverage while boosting its own position - e.g., by tasking Lebanon with reining in Hezbollah instead of offering Iran a concession in exchange for taming its proxy. CHINA •The China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation launched a Long March 10B rocket earlier today and - for the first time - recovered the first stage. •First stage recovery is a technique that SpaceX pioneered to make its rockets (partly) reusable - and thus far cheaper to launch. That cost efficiency has enabled SpaceX to become dominant in the space cargo market: it now accounts for 80-90% of all Earth-to-space payload. •China aims to challenge that dominance now that it, too, can recover first stages. UK •Former Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham secured the support of 322 of his Labour party's 403 MPs, putting him just one vote short of the 323 votes he needs to decisively win his party leadership bid. Burnham is running unopposed and is likely to secure that final vote - and his party's leadership - next week. As a result, he'll become the UK's next prime minister on July 20. •Meanwhile, populist leader Nigel Farage must wish he, too, was running unopposed. Instead, he faces Count Binface - a man in a trash can costume who claims to be an intergalactic warrior - in the snap special election Farage called last month to let voters judge him on accusations of impropriety. MALI •A motley coalition of Al Qaeda-linked Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) jihadists and Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) Tuareg separatists attacked a column of over 200 Russian Africa Corps personnel and 100 Malian soldiers near the northern town of Tabankort yesterday. •The Russian contingent was heading to Anefis to reinforce another Russian-Malian fighting force holding out at a military camp in the city of Anefis since the rest of the city fell to JNIM-FLA control in April. •The holdouts are desperate to keep a foothold in Anefis because they hope to use it as a base for an eventual attempt to recapture the regional hub of Kidal from the FLA. That goal will remain elusive as long as the jihadists-rebels have Russian-backed government forces on their back foot.
Open source report