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4 direct mentions across 4 briefings, with 2 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
JNIM and FLA fighters attacked a column of more than 200 Russian Africa Corps personnel and 100 Malian soldiers on July 9. The column was moving toward Anefis to reinforce Russian-Malian forces holding a military camp there.
Unverified development · updated through
JNIM and FLA fighters attacked a column of more than 200 Russian Africa Corps personnel and 100 Malian soldiers on July 9. The column was moving toward Anefis to reinforce Russian-Malian forces holding a military camp there.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin dossier
2 mapped developments across 1 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Mali
JNIM and the Azawad Liberation Front conducted coordinated attacks over the weekend, primarily targeting junta leaders while largely sparing gold-mining operations. It also references an January JNIM attack on Flagship Gold’s Morila Mine.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 10 July 2026 IRAN •The U.S. and Iran were due to resume talks towards a lasting peace deal today - now that Iran has laid late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to rest - but they're busy exchanging fire instead of words. •Yesterday, Iran targeted Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, and Qatar in its largest barrage yet this week, and the U.S. reportedly struck a site near Iran's only nuclear power plant at Bushehr. •In the background, Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi - a relative moderate - wrote on X that he's been speaking with his counterparts in Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Oman; and had also called Pakistani army chief Field Marshal Munir, who has been one of the main mediators between Iran and the U.S. Araghchi's diplomatic outreach suggests that moderates like him are seeking an off ramp even as hardliners escalate their aggressive rhetoric. •The hardliners feel that the U.S. has taken advantage of an interim ceasefire to chip away at Iran's negotiating leverage while boosting its own position - e.g., by tasking Lebanon with reining in Hezbollah instead of offering Iran a concession in exchange for taming its proxy. CHINA •The China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation launched a Long March 10B rocket earlier today and - for the first time - recovered the first stage. •First stage recovery is a technique that SpaceX pioneered to make its rockets (partly) reusable - and thus far cheaper to launch. That cost efficiency has enabled SpaceX to become dominant in the space cargo market: it now accounts for 80-90% of all Earth-to-space payload. •China aims to challenge that dominance now that it, too, can recover first stages. UK •Former Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham secured the support of 322 of his Labour party's 403 MPs, putting him just one vote short of the 323 votes he needs to decisively win his party leadership bid. Burnham is running unopposed and is likely to secure that final vote - and his party's leadership - next week. As a result, he'll become the UK's next prime minister on July 20. •Meanwhile, populist leader Nigel Farage must wish he, too, was running unopposed. Instead, he faces Count Binface - a man in a trash can costume who claims to be an intergalactic warrior - in the snap special election Farage called last month to let voters judge him on accusations of impropriety. MALI •A motley coalition of Al Qaeda-linked Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) jihadists and Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) Tuareg separatists attacked a column of over 200 Russian Africa Corps personnel and 100 Malian soldiers near the northern town of Tabankort yesterday. •The Russian contingent was heading to Anefis to reinforce another Russian-Malian fighting force holding out at a military camp in the city of Anefis since the rest of the city fell to JNIM-FLA control in April. •The holdouts are desperate to keep a foothold in Anefis because they hope to use it as a base for an eventual attempt to recapture the regional hub of Kidal from the FLA. That goal will remain elusive as long as the jihadists-rebels have Russian-backed government forces on their back foot.
Open source reportOff Leash update 19 June 2026 IRAN •The U.S. and Iran were due to start negotiating a final peace agreement today, but abruptly cancelled talks. •Axios reported that Iran called off the summit as a consequence of Israel's continued strikes on southern Lebanon. Iran considers Israel's fresh strikes to be a violation of the first point of the text of the memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran - the text of which was released Wednesday. •Pres. Trump is getting a lot of flak for the contents of that text. The NYT called it "basically a list of concessions to Iran with little - if anything - concrete to show for it on the U.S. side." •More unusually, the text even drew criticism from some hawkish Republicans like Sen. Bill Cassidy - who called it "the worst foreign policy blunder in decades" - and Sen. Roger Wicker - who chairs the Armed Forces Committee and fumed that the deal offers Iran juicy rewards like sanctions relief and cash "in exchange for Iran’s mere agreement to negotiate for another 60 days." •Such a resoundingly negative reaction makes me wonder if Trump will also get cold feet about moving forward with negotiations for a final peace agreement. •[Trump's team claims the text was deliberately left short and sweet so Iran's hardliners could agree to it; they say Iran agreed to tougher and more explicit commitments in back-channel talks.] UK •Popular Manchester mayor Andy Burnham easily won a key special election yesterday. The win was pivotal for Burnham because it gives him a seat in Parliament - which is a necessary requirement for being able to challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer for the leadership of the Labour Party, and thus the premiership. •Burnham stands a good chance of beating Starmer, who is deeply unpopular even within his own party and polls as the least popular British Prime Minister on record. UKRAINE AND RUSSIA •Ukraine launched another round of long-range strikes deep inside Russia yesterday, including its largest attack yet on Moscow. Pres. Zelensky said it was retaliation for Russia's strike on a historic monastery in Kyiv earlier this week: "If Ukraine burns, then your Moscow will burn as well." Russia threatened re-retaliation. •The Economist tallied some figures that show how much Kyiv has stepped up its long-range game. In the three years from 2022 through 2024, Ukraine completed a total of 338 reported strikes on targets at least 100 km from its borders, or about 120 strikes per year. Last year, it completed 658 such strikes, and it's on track to complete more than 800 this year. •Many of Ukraine's long-range strikes have targeted oil infrastructure like refineries and ports, causing damage that has reduced Russian oil refinery production by 15% between the first four months of last year and the same period this year - that's despite high oil prices, which usually stimulate more production. NIGER •Gunmen assaulted Niamey's international airport early this morning, engaging Nigerien soldiers in a half-hour gun battle that killed at least 35, including 11 soldiers and two civilians. •Al Qaeda's local affiliate, Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), claimed this morning's attack in a social media post. •That catches JNIM up with its regional rival, Islamic State - Sahel Province (ISSP), which attacked the same airport in January. JNIM and ISSP are likely to continue to stage high-impact attacks on symbolic targets as their rivalry escalates. SUDAN •The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) appears poised to launch an offensive on government-controlled El Obeid. •The RSF has beseiged the capital of North Kordofan state for 18 months, offering its civilian population a glimpse of the horrors that might unfold in a battle to control it. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights urged both sides to "stop this madness."
Open source reportOff Leash update 29 April UAE •The United Arab Emirates (UAE), which produces about 12% of global oil, announced that it will leave the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), effective Friday. •The UAE has long complained that OPEC's quotas constrain its oil exports and has been threatening to quit the cartel for years so it can have more flexibility to meet market demand. [In the long run, that is. For now, Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is a far tighter curb on Emirati oil exports than OPEC production controls.] •The UAE's departure from OPEC could also lead to more volatile oil prices in the long run, since less of the world's oil supply will be subject to OPEC oversight. IRAQ •After months of deadlock, Iraq's Pres. Nizar Amedi named businessman Ali al Zaidi as his prime minister (PM) designate and tasked al Zaidi with forming a government. •Al Zaidi's appointment was perhaps partly intended to appease Pres. Trump, who vigorously opposed Amedi's first choice for PM - two-time PM Nouri al Maliki - over the latter's close ties to Iran and threatened to end U.S. support for Iraq if al Maliki was re-appointed. •Al Zaidi has his own links with Iran: he owns Al-Janoob Islamic Bank, which is under U.S. sanctions over 2024 allegations of laundering money to Iran and its proxies. •But that doesn't seem to bother Trump as much as the prospect of a continued power struggle or another al Maliki government in Iraq. Washington has signalled that it won't oppose al Zaidi's designation, despite sanctions against his bank. MALI •Gold miners operating in Mali seem unfazed by the coordinated attacks Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) staged over the weekend. •For one thing, miners bold enough to be operating in Mali right now are used to being targeted directly - as when JNIM attacked Flagship Gold's Morila Mine in January - but were largely spared by this assault, which targeted junta leaders. Record-high gold prices are giving them added incentive to stay put. •The BBC suggested that the failure of Russian Africa Corps fighters to defend Kidal from the FLA has tarnished Russia's reputation as a reliable security partner in the Sahel. •The broader assault also raised questions about Col. Assimi Goita's military leadership, which has failed to solve the security problems that prompted its coup to overthrow Mali's last civilian government in 2020. •Assuming it survives, Mali's junta will likely continue to accept Russian help, but may now seek to deepen other security partnerships, including with Turkey, its fellow Alliance of Sahel States (Burkina Faso and Niger), and even the U.S., which sent its most senior Africa-focused diplomat to Bamako earlier this year. •The juntas in Burkina Faso and Niger - which also rely on Russian security support - will be watching Mali closely. So will Africa Corps' other partners on the continent, which include Libya and the Central African Republic. •[Russia's defense ministry unconvincingly claimed that Africa Corps troops valiantly defended Kidal, despite being vastly outnumbered and outgunned, and also prevented a coup against Goita's government. The Kremlin also alleged, without evidence, that the JNIM and FLA fighters that Africa Corps defeated had been trained by European instructors, including Ukrainians.]
Open source reportOff Leash update 28 April IRAN •Iran proposed a new plan to the U.S. via regional mediators. This one dodges the intractable nuclear questions that dogged prior proposals by postponing nuclear negotiations, and focuses instead on ending both blockades of the Strait of Hormuz. •Pres. Trump is reportedly not satisfied with Iran's proposal, which would be hard for him to sell as a win. It fails to resolve two key objectives of his war - barring Iran from future nuclear enrichment and doing away with its stockpile of already-enriched uranium - and only fixes Hormuz shipping, which wasn't broken before the war. RUSSIA •Iran's busy Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, continued his diplomatic tour with a visit to Moscow to discuss the ongoing war with Pres. Putin. •Putin has given Iran limited intelligence and military support, but he doesn't want to upset Israel, Gulf states, or Pres. Trump by overtly siding with Iran. •To that end, he offered Araghchi some nice compliments about how "courageously and heroically the people of Iran are fighting for their independence and for their sovereignty," but reportedly brushed off Araghchi's request to intercede with Pres. Trump to accept the plan Iran proposed for ending blockades. LEBANON •Israel and Hezbollah continue to trade near-daily strikes, though fighting has been largely constrained to the south until yesterday, when Israel struck targets in Hezbollah's stronghold in the eastern Bekaa Valley. •Hezbollah's leader, Naim Qassem, issued a defiant written statement declaring that the militant group will not "relinquish its weapons or its defenses" and demanding that the Lebanese government stop negotiating with Israel on Hezbollah's behalf. •Israel's Defense Minister, Israel Katz, angrily accused Qassem of "playing with fire…[that] will burn Hezbollah and all of Lebanon" and criticized the Lebanese government for failing to rein in or disarm the militants, who vastly outmuscle the weak Lebanese military. MALI •As the dust settles on the weekend's coordinated attacks by al Qaeda-linked Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Tuareg-led Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), it's becoming apparent that the vast assault shook Mali's government deeply. •Defense chief Gen. Sadio Camara wasn't the only high-ranking casualty. Two other senior junta figures - third-in-command Gen. Modibo Koné and military chief of staff Oumar Diarra - were badly injured and taken to heavily-guarded hospitals, where Koné reportedly died of his wounds. •Junta leader / President Assimi Goita was rushed to a secure location as the attacks began, and hasn't been heard from since. His silence is adding to concerns that his government may not survive for long. •JNIM and the FLA aren't necessarily trying to topple Goita's government and probably don't want to control Mali. Rather, they likely prefer to force concessions from the wounded regime: JNIM wants Goita to call off counterinsurgency operations against it, and the FLA seeks more autonomy - and perhaps eventually independence - for northern Tuaregs. •Emerging reports suggest that JNIM now controls Kidal, and JNIM / FLA fighters are entrenched around the cities of Mopti, Sevaré, and Gao awaiting orders that will depend on how the government responds to their demands. DRC •DRC's General Inspectorate of Mines (IGM) announced a new paramilitary "mining guard" to secure critical mineral mining sites and transport routes. •The IGM aims to eventually recruit 20,000 guards for a six-month training program before gradually deploying them to 22 mining provinces, starting with the first 2,500 to 3,000 that will deploy to Katanga in December. •Investment partnerships with the U.S. and UAE will help fund the $100 million guard program, which is essentially a downpayment on fostering a security environment that American and Emirati firms can trust to protect their future investments in DRC's mineral sector. PAKISTAN AND AFGHANISTAN •Unsurprisingly, the fragile, China-mediated truce that Pakistan and Afghanistan agreed to last month is breaking down. •Afghanistan's Taliban government accused Pakistan of targeting a university in Kunar with mortar and rocket strikes that killed seven and wounded 85. •Pakistan's military denied the accusation that it targeted a university as "a blatant lie" and said its targeting is always "precise and intelligence-based." It did not deny the strike or say what its real target was.
Open source report