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2 direct mentions across 2 briefings, with 4 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
JNIM and FLA fighters attacked a column of more than 200 Russian Africa Corps personnel and 100 Malian soldiers on July 9. The column was moving toward Anefis to reinforce Russian-Malian forces holding a military camp there.
Unverified development · updated through
JNIM and FLA fighters attacked a column of more than 200 Russian Africa Corps personnel and 100 Malian soldiers on July 9. The column was moving toward Anefis to reinforce Russian-Malian forces holding a military camp there.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Russian Africa Corps dossier
4 mapped developments across 1 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Kidal
The failure of Russian Africa Corps personnel to defend Kidal from the FLA has tarnished Russia’s standing as a reliable Sahel security partner.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 10 July 2026 IRAN •The U.S. and Iran were due to resume talks towards a lasting peace deal today - now that Iran has laid late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to rest - but they're busy exchanging fire instead of words. •Yesterday, Iran targeted Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, and Qatar in its largest barrage yet this week, and the U.S. reportedly struck a site near Iran's only nuclear power plant at Bushehr. •In the background, Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi - a relative moderate - wrote on X that he's been speaking with his counterparts in Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Oman; and had also called Pakistani army chief Field Marshal Munir, who has been one of the main mediators between Iran and the U.S. Araghchi's diplomatic outreach suggests that moderates like him are seeking an off ramp even as hardliners escalate their aggressive rhetoric. •The hardliners feel that the U.S. has taken advantage of an interim ceasefire to chip away at Iran's negotiating leverage while boosting its own position - e.g., by tasking Lebanon with reining in Hezbollah instead of offering Iran a concession in exchange for taming its proxy. CHINA •The China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation launched a Long March 10B rocket earlier today and - for the first time - recovered the first stage. •First stage recovery is a technique that SpaceX pioneered to make its rockets (partly) reusable - and thus far cheaper to launch. That cost efficiency has enabled SpaceX to become dominant in the space cargo market: it now accounts for 80-90% of all Earth-to-space payload. •China aims to challenge that dominance now that it, too, can recover first stages. UK •Former Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham secured the support of 322 of his Labour party's 403 MPs, putting him just one vote short of the 323 votes he needs to decisively win his party leadership bid. Burnham is running unopposed and is likely to secure that final vote - and his party's leadership - next week. As a result, he'll become the UK's next prime minister on July 20. •Meanwhile, populist leader Nigel Farage must wish he, too, was running unopposed. Instead, he faces Count Binface - a man in a trash can costume who claims to be an intergalactic warrior - in the snap special election Farage called last month to let voters judge him on accusations of impropriety. MALI •A motley coalition of Al Qaeda-linked Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) jihadists and Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) Tuareg separatists attacked a column of over 200 Russian Africa Corps personnel and 100 Malian soldiers near the northern town of Tabankort yesterday. •The Russian contingent was heading to Anefis to reinforce another Russian-Malian fighting force holding out at a military camp in the city of Anefis since the rest of the city fell to JNIM-FLA control in April. •The holdouts are desperate to keep a foothold in Anefis because they hope to use it as a base for an eventual attempt to recapture the regional hub of Kidal from the FLA. That goal will remain elusive as long as the jihadists-rebels have Russian-backed government forces on their back foot.
Open source reportOff Leash update 29 April UAE •The United Arab Emirates (UAE), which produces about 12% of global oil, announced that it will leave the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), effective Friday. •The UAE has long complained that OPEC's quotas constrain its oil exports and has been threatening to quit the cartel for years so it can have more flexibility to meet market demand. [In the long run, that is. For now, Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is a far tighter curb on Emirati oil exports than OPEC production controls.] •The UAE's departure from OPEC could also lead to more volatile oil prices in the long run, since less of the world's oil supply will be subject to OPEC oversight. IRAQ •After months of deadlock, Iraq's Pres. Nizar Amedi named businessman Ali al Zaidi as his prime minister (PM) designate and tasked al Zaidi with forming a government. •Al Zaidi's appointment was perhaps partly intended to appease Pres. Trump, who vigorously opposed Amedi's first choice for PM - two-time PM Nouri al Maliki - over the latter's close ties to Iran and threatened to end U.S. support for Iraq if al Maliki was re-appointed. •Al Zaidi has his own links with Iran: he owns Al-Janoob Islamic Bank, which is under U.S. sanctions over 2024 allegations of laundering money to Iran and its proxies. •But that doesn't seem to bother Trump as much as the prospect of a continued power struggle or another al Maliki government in Iraq. Washington has signalled that it won't oppose al Zaidi's designation, despite sanctions against his bank. MALI •Gold miners operating in Mali seem unfazed by the coordinated attacks Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) staged over the weekend. •For one thing, miners bold enough to be operating in Mali right now are used to being targeted directly - as when JNIM attacked Flagship Gold's Morila Mine in January - but were largely spared by this assault, which targeted junta leaders. Record-high gold prices are giving them added incentive to stay put. •The BBC suggested that the failure of Russian Africa Corps fighters to defend Kidal from the FLA has tarnished Russia's reputation as a reliable security partner in the Sahel. •The broader assault also raised questions about Col. Assimi Goita's military leadership, which has failed to solve the security problems that prompted its coup to overthrow Mali's last civilian government in 2020. •Assuming it survives, Mali's junta will likely continue to accept Russian help, but may now seek to deepen other security partnerships, including with Turkey, its fellow Alliance of Sahel States (Burkina Faso and Niger), and even the U.S., which sent its most senior Africa-focused diplomat to Bamako earlier this year. •The juntas in Burkina Faso and Niger - which also rely on Russian security support - will be watching Mali closely. So will Africa Corps' other partners on the continent, which include Libya and the Central African Republic. •[Russia's defense ministry unconvincingly claimed that Africa Corps troops valiantly defended Kidal, despite being vastly outnumbered and outgunned, and also prevented a coup against Goita's government. The Kremlin also alleged, without evidence, that the JNIM and FLA fighters that Africa Corps defeated had been trained by European instructors, including Ukrainians.]
Open source report