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94 direct mentions across 94 briefings, with 93 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
The United States received $13 billion from Venezuelan oil sales during the year while only $3 billion was transparently remitted to Caracas.
Unverified development · updated through
The United States received $13 billion from Venezuelan oil sales during the year while only $3 billion was transparently remitted to Caracas.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
United States dossier
62 mapped developments across 26 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Essequibo
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro accused the United States of establishing secret military bases in the oil-rich Guyanese territory claimed by Venezuela. Maduro may be using the allegation to generate fear and justify plans to defend Venezuela’s claim.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Washington imposed a normalization condition on a Saudi nuclear deal; selective Houthi enforcement against Saudi shipping; new U.S.-Iran disputes over frozen assets and ceasefire terms.
Open source reportThe agreement permits a Saudi civilian nuclear program using U.S. technology and expertise and requires congressional review. Saudi Arabia rejected restrictions on domestic fuel production and expanded short-notice IAEA inspections.
Open source reportThe United States plans to announce an agreement allowing Saudi Arabia to establish a civilian nuclear program.
Open source reportPotential electoral abolition in Nicaragua, a China-Philippines maritime clash, a Houthi blockade declaration, UK cabinet changes, protests in Delhi and a U.S. tariff threat against Canada.
Open source reportCompeting U.S.-China messages and an CIA assessment of Venezuelan voting systems.
Open source reportThe United States conducted further strikes on Iran, including disabling an empty tanker bound for Kharg Island, and that Iran retaliated against U.S. military bases in Bahrain and Kuwait.
Open source reportIran targeted Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, and Qatar on July 9 in its largest barrage of the week, while the United States struck a site near Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant. U.S.-Iran talks had been scheduled for July 10.
Open source reportThe United States struck at least 170 military targets in Iran and that Iran said it targeted U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. President Trump declared a temporary ceasefire over.
Open source reportThe United States attacked military targets in Iran in retaliation for Iranian strikes on two commercial vessels circumventing Tehran’s transit rules for the Strait of Hormuz.
Open source reportAccording to Iranian parliament speaker and lead negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf calls for, a large funeral turnout and a warning to the United States and Israel to avoid miscalculations during the processions.
Open source reportAn Afghan-Pakistani exchange of strikes, a new EU levy on low-value imports, and anti-migrant demonstrations in South Africa.
Open source reportExiled opposition leader Maria Corina Machado is trying to return following earthquakes in Venezuela. The United States rejected her request for assistance and that a U.S. official characterized the effort as a political stunt.
Open source reportTaiwan, France, Germany and the United Kingdom criticized Chinese activity around Taiwan. It clarifies that the joint statement addressed Chinese activity generally rather than specifically mentioning the Fujian transit.
Open source reportU.S.-Iran negotiations, a pause in Israeli strikes in Lebanon, leadership change in Britain and a narrow Colombian election result.
Open source reportIran called off planned negotiations over continued Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon, which Tehran viewed as violating a U.S.-Iran memorandum. Criticism of the memorandum in the United States; the backlash could weaken President Trump’s willingness to continue negotiations.
Open source reportOff Leash update 17 June 2026 UKRAINE •Presidents Trump and Zelensky had what Trump called a "very good" meeting on the sidelines of the G7 summit both attended in Évian, France. •Trump left the meeting pledging to do "whatever I can" to end Ukraine's war with Russia, adding that Russia "should make a deal." Zelensky has blamed his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, for putting off peace talks. •Overall, it sounds like Ukraine is moving back up the G7's agenda now that Trump's attention has refocused on it. •G7 leaders issued a joint statement recognizing Ukraine's "progress on the battlefield in recent months" and committing to send Ukraine more air defense equipment. RUSSIA •Robert Kuzovkov - a Russian painter exiled over art criticizing the Kremlin (as well as Pres. Trump and Xi Jinping) - was shot and killed in Poland. Two Belarusian men were arrested as suspects. •The Kremlin has repeatedly denied targeting dissidents, but too many Putin critics like Kuzovkov have turned up dead to blame chance. IRAN •Bloomberg News published the full text of the 14-point draft memorandum of understanding (MoU) that the U.S. and Iran already e-signed and expect to formalize on Friday. You can read it here: https://t.co/MQb4iI8wmo. •The full text is short - just one-and-a-half pages - and its language is rather vague and noncommittal. U.S. officials like Vice Pres. Vance insist it was kept deliberately ambiguous so Iran's leaders could sell it to their internal audience while agreeing to critical - but less politically palatable - specific commitments in back-channel talks. •The MoU's first point certainly seems to validate Iran's claim that the ceasefire requires Israel to stop striking Lebanon: "Iran and the United States, together with their allies in the current war, declare upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding an immediate and permanent end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon..." (emphasis added). •Israel was not party to the MoU and rejects Iran's claim that the MoU requires Israeli forces to leave Lebanon. Indeed, Israeli forces carried out fresh airstrikes on southern Lebanon today. MALI •Africa Defense Forum - AFRICOM's mouthpiece - published a new report showing that Russia's Africa Corps has been shifting its strategy in Mali after failing to deliver the security improvements Mali's junta hired them to effect. •After helplessly standing by and even retreating as jihadists overran Russian bases in April, the Russian fighters "are taking more of a backseat role" now, according to one analyst. •The Russians have shifted from northern positions to concentrate on protecting the capital, Bamako, and they're leaving Malian forces to defend the rest of the country while providing only air and intelligence support. •It's unclear how the Russian retreat will sit with the junta leaders, who have paid Wagner Group and Africa Corps almost $1 billion for their services and gotten poor results in return. Some Malian officials reportedly want to cut ties with Africa Corps.
Open source reportThe G7 summit, Colombia’s presidential runoff, DRC Mining Week, and commodity prices.
Open source reportThe United States and Iran exchanged strikes overnight. Threats of further attacks to President Donald Trump and a pledge to resist pressure come from Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.
Open source reportRetaliatory U.S.-Iran strikes, Pakistani operations in Afghanistan, proposed EU sanctions on Russia, China–North Korea diplomacy, and Germany’s reported withdrawal from a European fighter program.
Open source reportOff Leash update 3 June 2026 IRAN •The U.S. struck Iran's Qeshm Island in retaliation for Iranian fire that downed an American MQ-1 Reaper drone, and Iran fired drones and missiles at Kuwait and Bahrain. •Kuwait said several drone strikes hit its airport, injuring at least 63 people and damaging the main terminal building, and these were Iran's first strikes on Bahrain since the temporary U.S.-Iran ceasefire went into effect almost two months ago. •Despite the exchanges of fire, Pres. Trump says peace talks are still "going on." RUSSIA •Ukraine launched over 350 drones into Russia to menace several major cities, including Moscow, Novgorod, and St. Petersburg - where an economic forum dubbed "Putin's Davos" was underway. •Russia said it intercepted the vast majority of the incoming drones, but it still reported several injuries and extensive damage to infrastructure. GUINEA •Guinea's massive Simandou mine almost doubled its iron ore exports in May compared to April, exporting 2.2 million tons through Morebaya port in May against 1.3 million tons in April. •The project - which sent its first ore to China just six months ago - has been ramping up quickly: April's total exports were more than double the 0.6 million tons shipped in the first three months of the year. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE •Pres. Trump signed an executive order asking technology companies to voluntarily give the U.S. government pre-release oversight of their new artificial intelligence models. •That's a looser requirement than Trump had initially planned to impose: a previous executive order would have mandated a 90-day government review period for new models, but that idea was scrapped last month. The new voluntary measure still imposes more oversight than tech companies currently face - if they opt in, that is. TRADE •The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative proposed new tariffs of 10-12.5% on 60 trading partners - including Canada, China, Japan, and several European Union member states - over their failure to ban exports of goods made with forced labor. •That was the stated justification, anyway. A less-touted second rationale is to replace the Liberation Day tariffs that the U.S. Supreme Court struck down with new levies on a sounder legal basis. EBOLA •The World Health Organization said it had overestimated suspected Ebola cases in eastern DRC and Uganda by a lot: hundreds of the 906 suspected cases it estimated last week were ruled out, leaving its new estimate with just 116 suspected cases and 330 confirmed cases. •Despite the positive revision, front-line medical workers still face challenges containing the outbreak, which was identified late. Test kits and protective gear are in short supply, and it's hard to distribute more because of ongoing conflict and weak state control in the region.
Open source reportThe United States and Iran exchanged strikes over the weekend. Its characterization of both sides as exercising restraint is an interpretation based on their respective descriptions of the attacks as self-defense and retaliation.
Open source reportAn unsigned 60-day ceasefire framework with disputed provisions, Israeli operations in Beirut and Gaza, and an Russian drone strike in Romania.
Open source reportThe strikes to the United States; CENTCOM’s characterization of them as self-defense intended comes from protect U.S. troops.
Open source reportTaiwanese President Lai Ching-te visited Eswatini aboard an Eswatini government aircraft after Beijing urged other African states to deny his aircraft access to their airspace.
Open source reportOff Leash update 29 April UAE •The United Arab Emirates (UAE), which produces about 12% of global oil, announced that it will leave the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), effective Friday. •The UAE has long complained that OPEC's quotas constrain its oil exports and has been threatening to quit the cartel for years so it can have more flexibility to meet market demand. [In the long run, that is. For now, Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is a far tighter curb on Emirati oil exports than OPEC production controls.] •The UAE's departure from OPEC could also lead to more volatile oil prices in the long run, since less of the world's oil supply will be subject to OPEC oversight. IRAQ •After months of deadlock, Iraq's Pres. Nizar Amedi named businessman Ali al Zaidi as his prime minister (PM) designate and tasked al Zaidi with forming a government. •Al Zaidi's appointment was perhaps partly intended to appease Pres. Trump, who vigorously opposed Amedi's first choice for PM - two-time PM Nouri al Maliki - over the latter's close ties to Iran and threatened to end U.S. support for Iraq if al Maliki was re-appointed. •Al Zaidi has his own links with Iran: he owns Al-Janoob Islamic Bank, which is under U.S. sanctions over 2024 allegations of laundering money to Iran and its proxies. •But that doesn't seem to bother Trump as much as the prospect of a continued power struggle or another al Maliki government in Iraq. Washington has signalled that it won't oppose al Zaidi's designation, despite sanctions against his bank. MALI •Gold miners operating in Mali seem unfazed by the coordinated attacks Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) staged over the weekend. •For one thing, miners bold enough to be operating in Mali right now are used to being targeted directly - as when JNIM attacked Flagship Gold's Morila Mine in January - but were largely spared by this assault, which targeted junta leaders. Record-high gold prices are giving them added incentive to stay put. •The BBC suggested that the failure of Russian Africa Corps fighters to defend Kidal from the FLA has tarnished Russia's reputation as a reliable security partner in the Sahel. •The broader assault also raised questions about Col. Assimi Goita's military leadership, which has failed to solve the security problems that prompted its coup to overthrow Mali's last civilian government in 2020. •Assuming it survives, Mali's junta will likely continue to accept Russian help, but may now seek to deepen other security partnerships, including with Turkey, its fellow Alliance of Sahel States (Burkina Faso and Niger), and even the U.S., which sent its most senior Africa-focused diplomat to Bamako earlier this year. •The juntas in Burkina Faso and Niger - which also rely on Russian security support - will be watching Mali closely. So will Africa Corps' other partners on the continent, which include Libya and the Central African Republic. •[Russia's defense ministry unconvincingly claimed that Africa Corps troops valiantly defended Kidal, despite being vastly outnumbered and outgunned, and also prevented a coup against Goita's government. The Kremlin also alleged, without evidence, that the JNIM and FLA fighters that Africa Corps defeated had been trained by European instructors, including Ukrainians.]
Open source reportOff Leash update 28 April IRAN •Iran proposed a new plan to the U.S. via regional mediators. This one dodges the intractable nuclear questions that dogged prior proposals by postponing nuclear negotiations, and focuses instead on ending both blockades of the Strait of Hormuz. •Pres. Trump is reportedly not satisfied with Iran's proposal, which would be hard for him to sell as a win. It fails to resolve two key objectives of his war - barring Iran from future nuclear enrichment and doing away with its stockpile of already-enriched uranium - and only fixes Hormuz shipping, which wasn't broken before the war. RUSSIA •Iran's busy Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, continued his diplomatic tour with a visit to Moscow to discuss the ongoing war with Pres. Putin. •Putin has given Iran limited intelligence and military support, but he doesn't want to upset Israel, Gulf states, or Pres. Trump by overtly siding with Iran. •To that end, he offered Araghchi some nice compliments about how "courageously and heroically the people of Iran are fighting for their independence and for their sovereignty," but reportedly brushed off Araghchi's request to intercede with Pres. Trump to accept the plan Iran proposed for ending blockades. LEBANON •Israel and Hezbollah continue to trade near-daily strikes, though fighting has been largely constrained to the south until yesterday, when Israel struck targets in Hezbollah's stronghold in the eastern Bekaa Valley. •Hezbollah's leader, Naim Qassem, issued a defiant written statement declaring that the militant group will not "relinquish its weapons or its defenses" and demanding that the Lebanese government stop negotiating with Israel on Hezbollah's behalf. •Israel's Defense Minister, Israel Katz, angrily accused Qassem of "playing with fire…[that] will burn Hezbollah and all of Lebanon" and criticized the Lebanese government for failing to rein in or disarm the militants, who vastly outmuscle the weak Lebanese military. MALI •As the dust settles on the weekend's coordinated attacks by al Qaeda-linked Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Tuareg-led Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), it's becoming apparent that the vast assault shook Mali's government deeply. •Defense chief Gen. Sadio Camara wasn't the only high-ranking casualty. Two other senior junta figures - third-in-command Gen. Modibo Koné and military chief of staff Oumar Diarra - were badly injured and taken to heavily-guarded hospitals, where Koné reportedly died of his wounds. •Junta leader / President Assimi Goita was rushed to a secure location as the attacks began, and hasn't been heard from since. His silence is adding to concerns that his government may not survive for long. •JNIM and the FLA aren't necessarily trying to topple Goita's government and probably don't want to control Mali. Rather, they likely prefer to force concessions from the wounded regime: JNIM wants Goita to call off counterinsurgency operations against it, and the FLA seeks more autonomy - and perhaps eventually independence - for northern Tuaregs. •Emerging reports suggest that JNIM now controls Kidal, and JNIM / FLA fighters are entrenched around the cities of Mopti, Sevaré, and Gao awaiting orders that will depend on how the government responds to their demands. DRC •DRC's General Inspectorate of Mines (IGM) announced a new paramilitary "mining guard" to secure critical mineral mining sites and transport routes. •The IGM aims to eventually recruit 20,000 guards for a six-month training program before gradually deploying them to 22 mining provinces, starting with the first 2,500 to 3,000 that will deploy to Katanga in December. •Investment partnerships with the U.S. and UAE will help fund the $100 million guard program, which is essentially a downpayment on fostering a security environment that American and Emirati firms can trust to protect their future investments in DRC's mineral sector. PAKISTAN AND AFGHANISTAN •Unsurprisingly, the fragile, China-mediated truce that Pakistan and Afghanistan agreed to last month is breaking down. •Afghanistan's Taliban government accused Pakistan of targeting a university in Kunar with mortar and rocket strikes that killed seven and wounded 85. •Pakistan's military denied the accusation that it targeted a university as "a blatant lie" and said its targeting is always "precise and intelligence-based." It did not deny the strike or say what its real target was.
Open source reportWashington and Tehran are not moving quickly toward another round of direct talks but are communicating indirectly through Pakistani and Omani mediators. The war is costing the United States almost $1 billion per day.
Open source reportMovement on Ukraine’s Druzhba pipeline and an Hezbollah rocket attack during the Israel-Lebanon truce.
Open source reportPlans for negotiations in Islamabad, competing ceasefire terms, Israeli strikes in Lebanon, militant clashes in Niger, a Venezuelan wage announcement, and proposed social-media restrictions in Greece.
Open source reportEgypt, Pakistan, and Turkey proposed a 45-day ceasefire that includes reopening Hormuz. Neither the United States nor Iran had responded and whether the proposal was connected to reported private talks remained unclear.
Open source reportStrikes and succession in Iran, Ukrainian drone support for U.S. bases, Afghanistan-Pakistan fighting, elections in Nepal and political restrictions in Guinea.
Open source reportIran launched ballistic missiles at Israel and regional states hosting U.S. bases. Most missiles were intercepted but alleges that some caused damage and casualties, including three U.S. service members killed.
Open source reportThe government led by Delcy Rodríguez suspended 19 production-sharing agreements signed under Nicolás Maduro while Venezuela and the United States review the contracts and counterparties.
Open source reportDevelopments across three conflict theaters.
Open source reportChina’s reported Taiwan drills, Russia-Ukraine diplomacy, Southeast Asian border tensions, political developments in Guinea and Somaliland, and security incidents in Yemen and Syria.
Open source reportFriction over SDF integration in Syria, an expansion of China’s ICBM deployment, Sudan’s competing ceasefire proposals and an Pakistan-LNA arms agreement.
Open source reportOff Leash update 17 Dec VENEZUELA •In a Truth Social post, Pres. Trump said he had designated Nicolas Maduro's government a foreign terrorist organization and announced a "A TOTAL AND COMPLETE BLOCKADE OF ALL SANCTIONED OIL TANKERS going into, and out of, Venezuela." •While that sounds severe, analysts point out that the emphasis on sanctioned tankers suggests this will be more of a redoubling of ongoing U.S. naval operations against regime-linked boats in the Caribbean than a true blockade. •It won't affect Chevron's legal exports of Venezuelan oil; nor will it threaten legal shipments of other goods to and from Venezuela. And with global oil markets well supplied and China - as the main buyer of Venezuelan oil - unlikely to enthusiastically enforce sanctions, it likely won't have a lasting effect on oil prices either. •The new terrorist designation will, however, facilitate more seizures of sanctioned oil tankers. The U.S. is monitoring around 18 fully-loaded, sanctioned tankers in Venezuelan waters, and Axios reported that it plans to seize any that enter international waters. •The designation could also help build a case for the land strikes and direct military action Trump has repeatedly threatened against Venezuela. •The new measures will also further hobble Venezuela's ailing economy. Since oil is Venezuela's main source of export earnings, the blockade is likely to exacerbate already-high inflation and lead to a fresh surge in outbound migration. UKRAINE •U.S. and European officials wrapped up two days of meetings on Ukraine in Berlin after making some minor progress on possible ceasefire terms. •One new aspect of the tabled peace proposal would see U.S. intelligence and European troops reinforce Ukraine's post-war security and help deter a repeat Russian invasion in the future. Russia will certainly reject that idea; it didn't even bother to respond to the far more favorable plan the U.S. initially proposed. SAHEL •In an interview with pro-Kremlin media outlet TASS, Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister - Sergey Vershinin - accused the West of "waging a large-scale campaign to destabilize the situation" in the junta-run Sahel states of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. •That's an odd accusation from an official representing the country that gained the most from the destabilizing coups that overthrew elected governments in all three Sahel countries. While there's no direct evidence that Russia was involved an any of the putschs, it was quick to capitalize on the opportunity to bolster each junta with no-strings-attached security support in exchange for mineral access. CRITICAL MINERALS •The European Union (EU) outlined a plan to lower its ambitions for replacing combustion engine vehicles with greener models - in part to reduce the costly compliance burden that lofty green targets have forced on struggling European automakers. •Instead of requiring EU-made vehicles to eliminate 100% of their carbon emissions by 2035, the new target would aim for a 90% reduction in emissions. That means carmakers could still produce hybrids and internal combustion engine cars after 2035 - though fewer of them than they're making now. •If adopted, the plan would reduce EU carmakers' demand for battery minerals like cobalt and rare earths. It's seen as a particularly welcome reprieve for the EU's luxury carmakers like Porsche, Mercedes-Benz, and BMW, who have struggled more with the green transition than their mass-market counterparts.
Open source reportSustained STC control of southern Yemen would significantly alter the civil war and make a return to separate northern and southern states more likely.
Open source reportNegotiations involving Iran, the United States and European Union are stalled; unnamed analysts who believe Iran may be advancing nuclear development at a new enrichment site called Pickax Mountain.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 10 Nov 2025 Happy 250th Anniversary to the United States Marine Corps! COMING UP THIS WEEK •COP30 - the UN's climate conference - starts today and runs through Nov. 21. This year's edition will include fewer world leaders than attended past summits. The lackluster turnout is leading some to question the purpose of the summit. •The U.S. celebrates Veterans Day tomorrow, and the American Legion published a list of nationwide deals and discounts veterans can enjoy here: https://t.co/ri80Zt9MMx. •Tomorrow is also Iraq's election. Voter registration figures suggest Iraqis are disillusioned with their politicians, and many Shia will probably join popular cleric Moqtada al Sadr in boycotting the vote. Those who vote are expected to do so along sectarian lines, leaving Iraq's political elite to allocate power amongst themselves. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,848/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $106,245 •Cobalt: $48,570/ton •Copper: $10,717/ton •Ethereum: $3,604 •Gold: $4,078/toz •Lead: $2,047/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.49/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $60.22/barrel •Zinc: $3,057/ton VENEZUELA •Numerous reports suggest that Venezuela's strongman, Nicolas Maduro, has been leveraging Cuban intelligence to intensify a crackdown on suspected traitors within his government by jailing and - allegedly - torturing military officers suspected of disloyalty. •Whether or not any of the targeted officers were actually plotting against Maduro, his crackdown on suspected traitors is bound to make other officers hesitate to challenge his authority. •Separately, Venezuela's army released a series of new patriotic promotional videos over the weekend as part of what some analysts suspect is an effort to motivate soldiers and attract new recruits. •In one clip filmed at the national military academy, army commander Gen. Johan Hernández Láre boasts that the academy's cadets "are ready to destroy the enemy" after their training on the first-person view (FPV) drone simulators in the background. Gamers around the world may be worried: astute observers pointed out that the simulators behind Láre bear an uncanny resemblence to FPV Kamikaze Drone, a video game sold on Steam for $3.99. GAZA •Turkey accused Israel of bombing a Turkish hospital in Gaza and issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on charges of "genocide and crimes against humanity." Israel called it a "PR stunt." •While trading diplomatic barbs with Israel, Turkey is apparently constructively helping the U.S. and UAE try to negotiate safe passage for Hamas fighters trapped in tunnels in Israeli-controlled parts of Gaza. •Separately, Hamas returned the remains of Lt. Hadar Goldin, an Israeli soldier who was killed in Gaza in 2014. Goldin was one of the deceased hostages whose release was mandated by the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. DRONES •The UK said it would lend Belgium military support to protect against a wave of drone incursions into Belgian airspace. IRAN •Tehran's water supplies have continued to dwindle through a rain-less autumn, and authorities have started rationing water. •Late last week, Pres. Masoud Pezeshkian - who has been sounding the alarm about Tehran's looming water crisis for months - warned that Tehran residents may need to evacuate if the drought lasts another month. The Ministry of Energy is trying to draw rain using "cloud seeding" first. INDIA •A car bomb killed at least 10 people near one of Delhi's top tourist attractions - the Red Fort - today, leading authorities to impose a high security alert on other tourist and government sites in the capital. •Investigators are treading cautiously and not explicitly calling it a terrorist attack yet - but the fact that India's federal anti-terror investigators are leading the inquiry suggests terrorism is a leading theory.
Open source reportThe five Central Asian states are rich in uranium, copper, gold and rare earths while retaining strong but complicated relationships with Moscow rooted in the Soviet era.
Open source reportU.S. off-year voting and an analysis of changes in Xi Jinping’s rhetoric.
Open source reportTrump as announcing that the United States would soon resume nuclear testing “on an equal basis” with other countries, which as ending a 33-year testing moratorium.
Open source reportOff Leash update 24 Oct RUSSIA •Pres. Putin reacted angrily to new U.S. sanctions on Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil, which Pres. Trump imposed in frustration with Putin's refusal to engage in Ukraine ceasefire talks. Putin called the new measures an "unfriendly act" and chided the foreign buyers complying with them that "no self-respecting country" would cave to such pressure. •Yet Russia's major customers, including India and China, are indeed curtailing their purchases of seaborne Russian oil because of the new sanctions - at least in the short term. Oil prices rose 5% on expectations of greater competition to buy non-sanctioned oil. VENEZUELA •Two supersonic U.S. B-1 bombers flew close enough to Venezuela yesterday to cause concern for Nicolas Maduro, who is probably uneasily watching the skies for signs that Pres. Trump has begun to launch the land strikes he's been threatening. •The U.S. Lancers remained in international airspace, and Pres. Trump later rejected initial Pentagon suggestions that the sorties were part of an "attack demonstration" to intimidate Maduro. But - given recent escalatory rhetoric from both sides - this looks like more of a preview than a false alarm. SUDAN •According to media reports, representatives of "The Quad" - Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the U.S. - are meeting in Washington today to mediate between the warring sides of Sudan's civil war. •Alas, neither the army nor the Rapid Support Forces seem ready to talk peace. Both deny that they're even engaging in indirect talks, and both continue to stock up on weapons - despite an (apparently ineffective) arms embargo. NIGER •Suspected jihadist gunmen kidnapped an American missionary, Kevin Rideout, from his home just 100 meters (300 feet) from the presidential palace in Niamey. •Rideout's abduction will be a painful reminder to the junta - which operates from the presidential palace - of how badly it has failed to contain jihadists and restore security since taking power in July 2023. •Both Islamic State's Sahel Province (ISSP) and the Al Qaeda-linked Group for Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) are active in Niger and across its porous borders, and both have abducted Westerners for ransom in recent years. But it was probably ISSP - rather than JNIM - that abducted Rideout, whose cell phone was last traced to an ISSP-ridden area north of Niamey. WEST BANK •Vice Pres. Vance and Pres. Trump both categorically rejected the Israeli Knesset's preliminary vote on a proposal to annex much of the West Bank. •Vance - speaking from Israel - called it an "insult" and a "very stupid political stunt," and Trump vowed that "Israel would lose all of its support from the United States" if the measure wins full approval. •Most of Prime Minister Netanyahu's Likud party would agree with Vance that the proposal was an opposition stunt designed to provoke outcry, and the bill is unlikely to clear the remaining three votes it would need to pass. 1/2
Open source reportAustralia, Canada, Portugal and the United Kingdom recognized Palestinian statehood, with at least four more countries expected to follow. The United States and Israel denounced the recognitions and boycotted a French-led conference on a two-state solution.
Open source reportA proposed NATO role over Ukraine, Russian re-education sites, a China-Philippines maritime confrontation, Taliban internet restrictions, and corruption allegations in South Sudan.
Open source reportRussian drone incursions, deadly militant attacks in Niger and Chad, political transitions in Nepal and Guinea, and diplomatic fallout from Israel’s strike in Doha.
Open source reportU.S. tariffs on India, fighting in Ukraine and Gaza, Russia’s nuclear cooperation with Niger, DRC–M23 negotiations, and possible renewed U.S.–North Korea diplomacy.
Open source reportOff Leash update 25 July GAZA •After weeks of consideration, Hamas submitted its response to Israel's latest 60-day ceasefire proposal. •Hamas's response reportedly sought changes to the proposed clauses on humanitarian aid flows, post-truce areas of control, and - most contentiously - guarantees regarding an end to the war. •Specifically, Hamas wants Israel to commit to fully withdrawing from Gaza after the war, while Israel refuses to withdraw with Hamas still in control of the territory. •The U.S. and Israel promptly rejected Hamas's response and withdrew their negotiating teams from Qatar, and U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff angrily complained about Hamas's "lack of desire to reach a ceasefire." •Despite the U.S. and Israeli reaction, Hamas seemed surprised at how its response was received, and its officials remained optimistic that truce talks will continue next week. We'll see. •Meanwhile, the World Food Program estimated that one-third of Gaza's population of two million is currently "not eating for multiple days in a row." •Israel and the U.S. State Department blame Hamas for that: they - and the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation they back - allege that Hamas is systematically stealing humanitarian aid before it reaches hungry Gazans. (A new USAID study of 156 aid distribution incidents in June refutes this but acknowledges that an unacceptable share of aid falls through the cracks.) PALESTINIAN STATEHOOD •In a letter to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, Pres. Macron confirmed that France plans to recognize Palestinian statehood at this year's UN General Assembly in September, and will encourage its allies to do the same. •While most UN member states (147 of 193) recognize Palestine, France - which has Europe's largest Jewish and Muslim communities - would be the first G7 country to do so. •Israeli officials sharply criticized the long-expected announcement. Prime Minister Netanyahu said French recognition "rewards terror and risks creating another Iranian proxy," and Defense Minister Katz called it "a disgrace and a surrender to terrorism." VENEZUELA •Reuters reported that the U.S. is preparing a new authorization allowing Chevron to resume operations in Venezuela under stricter limitations than those defined in previous operating licenses that were cancelled in February. •Similar rights could then be extended to European oil companies - specifically, Italy's Eni and Spain's Repsol - under subsequent authorizations. •The newly tightened limitations would aim to force companies to swap certain imported supplies - rather than pay cash - for Venezuelan oil, thus further severing the Maduro regime's cash flow from oil sales. IRAN •Iran said it would allow inspectors from the UN's nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), to visit for the strictly limited purpose of reestablishing a working relationship between the IAEA and Iran. The visiting inspectors would not be allowed access to Iran's nuclear sites.
Open source reportOff Leash update 22 July UKRAINE •Pres. Zelensky announced that Ukraine and Russia will meet for peace talks in Istanbul tomorrow. •Zelensky seems more open to an immediate ceasefire than Pres. Putin does. The Kremlin is already managing expectations for the summit: a spokesman told reporters not "to expect any breakthroughs in the category of miracles - it is hardly possible in the current situation." •Separately, the NYT reported that Russia's Iranian-designed Shahed drones have become better at hitting their targets - despite parallel improvements in Ukraine's air defenses. Last year, 7% of Shahed fire breached air defenses to reach its target. This year to date, that rate has reached 11%. IRAN •Iran responded to the EU's threat to reimpose UN nuclear sanctions in the absence of a new nuclear deal by convening talks with the UK, France, and Germany starting this Friday. •If those go well, they could open the door to new nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran - although Iranian officials note that there are currently "no plans to hold talks with the United States," suggesting that Iran is still smarting from U.S. strikes on its nuclear facilities last month. CHINA •Chinese Premier Li Qiang inaugurated the construction of a massive dam on Tibet's Yarlung Zangbo River that will become the world's largest green energy plant. The 1.2 trillion yuan ($167 billion) project will take 10 years or more to complete. •Unlike DRC's Grand Inga Dam - which, at ~40-70 gigawatts, would have a capacity somewhere between Three Gorges (23 gigawatts) and the new dam in Tibet (70 gigawatts) *IF* it's ever completed - investors have high confidence in the ambitious new stimulus-supported project. Chinese stock and bond prices rose after Premier Li's announcement yesterday. •Separately, Chinese authorities accused local governments and hospitals in western Gansu Province of tampering with blood tests to cover up evidence of lead poisoning affecting over 250 kindergartners. •The cover-up might have worked if the initial offense had been less egregious: school staff jazzed up kids' lunches with powdered pigments - which were clearly marked as inedible and contained 20% lead - to make the food look better in marketing photos. •The resulting symptoms of lead poisoning were so obvious that parents doubted local blood test results showing their kids were fine, and took their kids to other provinces for untampered testing that confirmed dangerously elevated blood lead levels. VENEZUELA •Venezuela's sanctioned Attorney General, Tarek Saab, opened an investigation into allegations that 252 Venezuelan migrants - purportedly gang members - who were deported from the U.S. were tortured in El Salvador's CECOT detention center before their repatriation to Venezuela as part of a trilateral prisoner swap last week. •Saab didn't mention how the nearly 1,000 political prisoners still languishing in Venezuelan jails are being treated. ISRAEL •Yesterday, foreign ministers from 25 countries - including the UK and a majority of EU member states - signed a statement declaring that Israel's "denial of essential humanitarian assistance to the civilian population [of Gaza] is unacceptable," and concluding that "the war in Gaza must end now." •Pope Leo joined in the criticism, expressing his "deep sorrow" and calling for an end to the "barbarity of war" after Israeli shelling damaged Gaza's only Catholic church, killing three and wounding nine (including a priest). •White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt acknowledged that Pres. Trump was also "caught off guard" by Israel's go-it-alone airstrikes on Syria and shelling of Gaza's Holy Family Church, and "quickly called the [Israeli] prime minister to rectify these situations." 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 18 July SYRIA •Since taking power earlier this year, Syria's Pres. al Sharaa - a former jihadist - has carefully cultivated a new image as an inclusive statesman who has let go of past grievances, including against Israel. •However, Israel's airstrikes on Damascus this week have clearly tested al Sharaa's patience. In his sharpest public criticism yet, al Sharaa accused Israel of inciting "chaos" with its "wide-scale targeting of civilian and government facilities" in Damascus. •Prime Minister Netanyahu seemed to confirm reports that Israel used its airstrikes to bully al Sharaa's government into the latest ceasefire (which is still mostly holding up) when he said the truce was "achieved through strength." •Netanyahu seems resolute in his commitment to using Israel's military might to protect Syria's Druze: he vowed to block Syrian troops from deploying anywhere south of Damascus. UKRAINE •When Presidents Trump and Zelensky spoke by phone on July 4, Trump asked Zelensky about Ukraine's capacity to strike targets in Moscow and St. Petersburg. •The White House said Trump was "was merely asking a question, not encouraging further killing," but it seems Zelensky took the question as tacit approval to fire at Russia's largest and second-largest cities: Ukraine launched over 100* drones at the two cities yesterday. [*100 came from Russian reports - which usually seek to downplay Ukrainian battle strength - so the true number of Ukrainian drones was likely far higher.] •Separately, Ukraine announced two moves to reinvigorate its war effort with arms boosts. First, its Brave1 defense tech incubator launched a program offering Ukraine's front lines as a test bed for new weapons prototypes that allied countries want to test in action. Ukrainian troops will test the new models and report back on how they perform. •Second, Pres. Zelensky set a goal for Ukraine to produce 50% of its weapons domestically within the next six months, compared to the 40% it currently self-supplies. UK •The UK's incumbent Labour Party introduced a plan to lower the voting age to 16. Labour says the shift would bring new, youthful energy to British democracy. Naturally, it would also boost Labour's support: as in the U.S., younger voters in the UK tend to lean left. IRAN •A new U.S. intelligence assessment cautiously determined that last month's U.S. strikes on Iran badly damaged - and perhaps destroyed - the underground nuclear enrichment site at Fordo, and likely surgically destroyed the facilities (like centrifuges) at Isfahan and Natanz that would be used to enrich any surviving 60% uranium to weapons grade - though Isfahan and Natanz suffered less overall damage than Fordo. •That assessment corroborates claims that the strikes have set Iran's nuclear weapons program back years or even decades: even if Iran was able to shield some or all of its 60% uranium from the blasts, it likely does not have any surviving centrifuges to further enrich it to weapons grade. •Separately, additional intelligence reports suggest that Iran's Pres. Pezeshkian sustained minor leg injuries while fleeing an Israeli strike sometime around day four of their 12-day war. Pezeshkian, who is still open to nuclear talks with the U.S., was careful to clarify that: "It was not the United States that was behind the attempt on my life. It was Israel." DRC •DRC is reportedly close to finalizing a four-year football (soccer) sponsorship deal to pay FC Barcelona €10.0 to 11.5 million ($11.6 to 13.4 million) per year to place the slogan "The Heart of Africa" on its men's and women's training and warm-up jerseys, in a bid to attract tourists to DRC. •That follows similar deals DRC announced last month with AS Monaco and AC Milan. •DRC is probably hoping to emulate its regional rival Rwanda, which saw a 17% boost in tourist arrivals within a year of signing a jersey sponsorship deal with the UK's Arsenal football club.
Open source reportProspective Gaza ceasefire terms, Russia’s engagement with Afghanistan and Venezuela, Iran’s postwar diplomacy, BRICS attendance, U.S. trade meetings and market prices.
Open source reportPutin has previously reversed similar statements; Russian messaging is shifting responsibility for delays toward Ukraine and the United States.
Open source reportPresident Masoud Pezeshkian told his Emirati counterpart that Iran was ready to resume nuclear negotiations with the United States, while continuing to insist on some enrichment programs. Enrichment remains the principal negotiating impasse.
Open source reportA preliminary U.S.-China trade understanding; developments in the DRC and Sudan, Pakistan’s proposed defense increase, and diplomatic maneuvering over Gaza and Palestinian statehood.
Open source reportHigher U.S. metals tariffs and Bulgaria’s planned accession to the euro.
Open source reportAn minerals agreement, Israeli action in Syria, U.S.-UK strikes in Yemen, LNG plans in Mozambique, legal pressure on Joseph Kabila, and Mali’s proposed five-year junta transition.
Open source reportOff Leash update 22 April 2025 RUSSIA AND UKRAINE •Perhaps swayed by U.S. pressure to figure out a ceasefire, Pres. Putin told reporters that he's open to direct bilateral peace talks with Ukraine. It would be the first time the warring neighbors have engaged in direct talks since the early weeks of the war in 2022. •The U.S. has proposed a broad ceasefire plan that it hopes Ukraine and Russia will agree to, but the U.S. plan lacks key details that could become sticking points as negotiations develop. ISRAEL •Prime Minister Netanyahu is facing a new political crisis after his domestic security chief, Ronen Bar, accused him of making multiple improper and politically-motivated requests. •Bar - whom Netanyahu unsuccessfully tried to sack last month - claimed in an audacious affidavit to the Supreme Court that Netanyahu pressured Bar's domestic security service (Shin Bet) to spy on Israeli citizens involved in anti-government protests, asked Bar to side with him over the Supreme Court if a constitutional crisis should ever split allegiances, and tried to cajole Bar into signing an opinion that would have effectively pardoned Netanyahu from corruption charges he faces. [Netanyahu rejected Bar's letter as a "false statement" and said he plans to refute Bar's claims "in detail."] •Bar's bold accusations aren't as much of a threat to Netanyahu's political survival as the corruption charges he's contesting in court, but they give the Prime Minister's critics additional grounds to call for his resignation - which won't be forthcoming. SUDAN •The European Commission and its member states marked the end of this week's high-level summit on the war in Sudan - which excluded both parties fighting in it - with aid pledges totaling €522 million ($600 million). That's almost exactly double the amount the European Union earmarked for Sudan last year, but it doesn't come close to filling the $3.8 billion gap in additional emergency funding that the UN says Sudan still needs for 2025. •The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) weren't invited to the summit and continued fighting instead. The SAF accused the RSF of killing over 30 civilians yesterday in the course of its offensive to capture El Fasher, which is the capital of North Darfur and the only major city in Darfur that the RSF doesn't control. VENEZUELA •Venezuela bluntly rejected a proposal from El Salvador's Pres. Bukele to swap 252 Venezuelans deported from the U.S. to Salvadoran jail for the same number of political prisoners swept up in Pres. Maduro's post-election crackdown. •Maduro's attorney general, Tarek Saab (who is under U.S., UK, and EU sanctions for helping Maduro repress democracy in Venezuela), called Bukele's swap proposal "cynical" and accused Bukele of being a (fellow) "serial human rights violator" for his crackdown on gang violence. •Some Venezuelan opposition figures quickly welcomed Bukele's proposal, but their main leader, Maria Corina Machado, has yet to comment on it. VATICAN •Pope Francis passed away yesterday at age 88. Argentine-born Francis was the first non-European pope in over 1200 years, and he broke from his European predecessors in many ways: becoming the first pope to visit the birthplace of Islam (Saudi Arabia), refusing to judge homosexuals or divorcées, and overseeing radical (by Vatican standards) institutional change - though, as The Economist pointed out, "not as much [change] as he hoped." •A conclave of 135 cardinals under age 80 - all but 27 of whom were appointed by Francis - will now choose the next spiritual leader of the world's ~1.4 billion baptized Roman Catholics.
Open source reportOff Leash update 22 April 2025 RUSSIA AND UKRAINE •Perhaps swayed by U.S. pressure to figure out a ceasefire, Pres. Putin told reporters that he's open to direct bilateral peace talks with Ukraine. It would be the first time the warring neighbors have engaged in direct talks since the early weeks of the war in 2022. •The U.S. has proposed a broad ceasefire plan that it hopes Ukraine and Russia will agree to, but the U.S. plan lacks key details that could become sticking points as negotiations develop. ISRAEL •Prime Minister Netanyahu is facing a new political crisis after his domestic security chief, Ronen Bar, accused him of making multiple improper and politically-motivated requests. •Bar - whom Netanyahu unsuccessfully tried to sack last month - claimed in an audacious affidavit to the Supreme Court that Netanyahu pressured Bar's domestic security service (Shin Bet) to spy on Israeli citizens involved in anti-government protests, asked Bar to side with him over the Supreme Court if a constitutional crisis should ever split allegiances, and tried to cajole Bar into signing an opinion that would have effectively pardoned Netanyahu from corruption charges he faces. [Netanyahu rejected Bar's letter as a "false statement" and said he plans to refute Bar's claims "in detail."] •Bar's bold accusations aren't as much of a threat to Netanyahu's political survival as the corruption charges he's contesting in court, but they give the Prime Minister's critics additional grounds to call for his resignation - which won't be forthcoming. SUDAN •The European Commission and its member states marked the end of this week's high-level summit on the war in Sudan - which excluded both parties fighting in it - with aid pledges totaling €522 million ($600 million). That's almost exactly double the amount the European Union earmarked for Sudan last year, but it doesn't come close to filling the $3.8 billion gap in additional emergency funding that the UN says Sudan still needs for 2025. •The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) weren't invited to the summit and continued fighting instead. The SAF accused the RSF of killing over 30 civilians yesterday in the course of its offensive to capture El Fasher, which is the capital of North Darfur and the only major city in Darfur that the RSF doesn't control. VENEZUELA •Venezuela bluntly rejected a proposal from El Salvador's Pres. Bukele to swap 252 Venezuelans deported from the U.S. to Salvadoran jail for the same number of political prisoners swept up in Pres. Maduro's post-election crackdown. •Maduro's attorney general, Tarek Saab (who is under U.S., UK, and EU sanctions for helping Maduro repress democracy in Venezuela), called Bukele's swap proposal "cynical" and accused Bukele of being a (fellow) "serial human rights violator" for his crackdown on gang violence. •Some Venezuelan opposition figures quickly welcomed Bukele's proposal, but their main leader, Maria Corina Machado, has yet to comment on it. VATICAN •Pope Francis passed away yesterday at age 88. Argentine-born Francis was the first non-European pope in over 1200 years, and he broke from his European predecessors in many ways: becoming the first pope to visit the birthplace of Islam (Saudi Arabia), refusing to judge homosexuals or divorcées, and overseeing radical (by Vatican standards) institutional change - though, as The Economist pointed out, "not as much [change] as he hoped." •A conclave of 135 cardinals under age 80 - all but 27 of whom were appointed by Francis - will now choose the next spiritual leader of the world's ~1.4 billion baptized Roman Catholics.
Open source reportBeijing suspended exports of unspecified rare earths to the United States in retaliation for higher U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods.
Open source reportTalks are scheduled for 12 April. President Trump characterized them as direct, while Iran said the first round would occur indirectly through mediators and that direct engagement could follow if it succeeds.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 26 March UKRAINE AND RUSSIA •Following three days of indirect negotiations in Saudi Arabia, Ukraine and Russia each agreed to "end the use of force" in the Black Sea and ensure "safe passage" of vessels through it - but under certain conditions that still seem far off. •In particular, Russia said it wouldn't put down its arms until the U.S. and EU lift their embargoes on Russian agricultural products - something the White House pledged to help Russia accomplish (and something Pres. Zelensky opposes as "a weakening of positions and a weakening of sanctions." •The EU is unlikely to agree to lift its sanctions anyway - even under U.S. pressure - and Pres. Zelensky complained that Russia was shifting the goalposts for a deal with new demands. It's clear that it will take further negotiations to secure a concrete Black Sea truce. GAZA •Hundreds of Gazans turned out to protest against Hamas in Beit Lahia in northern Gaza. It was a rare rebuke of the militant group that has ruled Gaza since 2007 - and drew it into war with Israel with its Oct. 7 attacks. Armed Hamas fighters broke up the demonstrations. DRC •Rwandan and pro-DRC government forces resumed fighting in North and South Kivu yesterday - despite agreeing to a ceasefire a day earlier. That ceasefire now looks as worthless as the others that came - and failed - before it. SUDAN •Sudan's military is facing criticism for an airstrike on a market in Darfur that reportedly killed dozens to hundreds of civilians on Monday. •The military denied targeting civilians, but both it and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) fighting it have been credibly accused of shelling civilian areas. •Separately, the army retook Khartoum airport from the RSF. SAHEL •Nigerien junta leader Abdourahamane Tiani was sworn in as the country's transitional president at the start of a five-year "flexible" transition back to civilian rule. •That follows a similar playbook to the one used by the juntas in Niger's fellow Alliance of Sahel States (Burkina Faso and Mali): grab power in a coup, then hold onto it for an extended period by promising to eventually transfer it to an elected government. It remains to be seen whether any of them will actually relinquish rule. IRAN •The U.S. slapped sanctions on three Iranian officials for their alleged involvement in the disappearance and probable death of ex-FBI Special Agent Robert Levinson. Levinson disappeared in Iran in 2007, and is believed to have died in captivity - though Iran never acknowledged abducting him or admitted he died on their watch.
Open source reportNegotiations over Ukraine strike restrictions, renewed Gaza combat, Sudanese military gains in Khartoum and a proposed rebel withdrawal in eastern DRC.
Open source reportPlanned U.S.-Ukraine talks in Saudi Arabia, Gaza ceasefire efforts, violence in Syria, proposed U.S.-Iran nuclear engagement, Russian advances in Kursk, joint naval exercises and commodity prices.
Open source reportFrance, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom support Egypt’s plan, while the United States and Israel reject it and donors have not committed the initial funding toward its stated $53 billion cost.
Open source reportOff Leash update 27 Feb Ukraine •The new U.S.-Ukraine mineral deal is taking shape quickly: it was only announced Tuesday (though speculation was swirling before that), and Pres. Zelensky will fly to Washington tomorrow to sign the final agreement. •Negotiators leaked a draft of the agreement dated Tuesday to the media, and several outlets published the full text (https://t.co/WCfpbsvV3e). Some takeaways: oUkraine will put half of its revenues from future mineral and energy sales into a new, U.S.-controlled investment fund that will reinvest some of the funds into rebuilding Ukraine. oThe fund will only draw on revenues from new projects; proceeds from existing mines, oil wells, etc. are not part of this arrangement. oThe only reference to U.S. security guarantees is highly noncommittal - paragraph 10 says the U.S. "supports Ukraine’s effort to obtain security guarantees needed to establish lasting peace" - but Zelensky said he's content with that wording. Trump told his cabinet the onus for security guarantees should be on Europe - not the U.S. oTrump's initial demands for a $500 billion contribution target and Ukraine's commitment to repay twice the amount of any future U.S. aid were both omitted from the draft. •Ukraine has large untapped reserves of several critical minerals whose development could contribute to this fund, including uranium (Europe's largest reserves!), graphite, lithium, titanium, natural gas, and rare earths. However, around 40% of its mineral resources are in regions Russia controls - and would likely keep in a peace deal. Gaza •Hamas and Israel both fulfilled their part of a delicate hostage-prisoner swap yesterday: Hamas returned the remains of four deceased hostages - and crucially, did so without any of the macabre theatrics that marred prior handovers - and Israel began releasing the 600-plus Palestinian prisoners it agreed to free in return. •This swap went smoothly, but the Gaza ceasefire remains fragile, and Israel and Hamas still haven't agreed on terms for the second phase that begins on Sunday. •Israel estimates that Hamas now holds about 25 living and 30 deceased hostages. Syria •Prominent Syrians who attended Pres. al Sharaa's two-day nation-building conference this week left underwhelmed. Several said the summit was poorly organized, left out key stakeholders (like the Syrian Democratic Forces), and failed to make meaningful progress towards planning Syria's future. Venezuela •Pres. Trump announced that he was cancelling Biden-era concessions that allowed Chevron to continue producing and exporting Venezuelan oil because Pres. Maduro failed to implement promised electoral and immigration reforms. •Chevron's license to continue production and export despite sanctions brought an estimated $4 billion into Maduro's state coffers and represented around a quarter of Venezuelan oil production while it was in force. Sahel •The Alliance of Sahel States - Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger - unveiled a new flag for the triad their juntas formed in opposition to ECOWAS. •In keeping with their modus operandi of doing the opposite of whatever their former colonizer - France - would do, the flag they designed is an affront to modern vexillology that breaks all the important rules of flag design (no lettering, simple design a child could draw from memory, 2-3 basic colors that contrast well, etc.)
Open source reportThe United States voted against a European resolution condemning Russia and demanding its withdrawal from Ukraine, then introduced a softer resolution calling for a rapid end to the war.
Open source reportThe United States would remove Cuba from its state-sponsors-of-terrorism list in exchange for the Cuban government releasing protesters jailed following its 2021 crackdown. Recent U.S. administrations have repeatedly changed Cuba’s designation.
Open source report11 Yemeni detainees were transferred from Guantanamo Bay to Oman for resettlement, leaving 15 prisoners at the facility.
Open source reportOff Leash update 9Dec Coming Up This Week •Bitcoin MENA 2024 opens today in Abu Dhabi. The cryptocurrency conference will feature Pres.-elect Trump's son, Eric, as its keynote speaker. •The UN Security Council expects to extend UN peacekeepers' mandate in eastern DRC for another year during a review today. Meanwhile, Angola will host - and mediate - another round of peace talks between DRC and Rwanda starting tomorrow. The previous round of talks in August resulted in a ceasefire deal that's largely holding up (albeit with occasional violations); this next round aims to align on terms for M23 and FDLR rebels to withdraw and disband. •The Chinese Communist Party holds its annual economic conference on Wednesday. This summit will set next year's economic agenda, which analysts expect will focus on implementing a new "moderately loose" monetary policy to boost growth and stop deflation. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,604/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $33,500/ton •Cobalt: $24,300/ton •Copper: $9,123/ton •Gold: $2,657/toz •Lead: $2,072/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.24/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $68.06/barrel •Zinc: $3,072/ton Syria •Syrian rebels easily overthrew Pres. Assad after Assad's foreign supporters - primarily Moscow and Tehran - declined to backstop his forces. There were hardly any forces to backstop anyway: many Syrian soldiers quickly ditched their fatigues for civilian clothes as they fled their posts. •Iranian officials quoted in the Financial Times suggested Assad had lost favor with Iran when he failed to prevent Israeli strikes on Iranian military assets within Syria. Others told the NYT that Tehran suddenly realized that supporting Assad was a losing battle amidst changing regional dynamics. Still others reportedly turned on Assad because they believed - probably correctly - that Assad has been cozying up to Sunni Arab states like the UAE with offers to loosen ties with Shia Iran in exchange for new post-war reconstruction commitments. •Whatever the reason, Assad clearly lost Iran's support in recent months - which is probably why Assad and his family fled to Moscow instead of Tehran. Russia reportedly offered the Assads asylum in exchange for guarantees Pres. Assad secured from rebels to keep Russian military assets in Syria safe for long enough to allow Russia to collect them. •Now what? A Damascus resident foreshadowed ominously: "We can’t predict the future and anything is possible, but the most important thing is we got rid of this oppressive regime." •It's far from certain that whatever replaces Assad's 24-year reign will be an improvement over his dictatorship and many analysts are worried about a resurgent civil war between rebel factions that have nothing in common now that they've succeeded in overthrowing their mutual enemy. Some are already fighting each other in Manbij. •The strongest of the rebel factions is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), whose leader is trying to rebrand as a statesman: he even changed his Telegram nickname from his fighting name, Abu Mohammed al Golani, to the much more responsible-sounding "President Ahmed al Shara," and promised to protect the rights of Christians and women as leader. •The U.S. pounded Islamic State targets in eastern Syria to prevent the jihadists from filling the power vacuum Assad's departure left behind. The U.S. has also been exchanging secret messages with HTS via Turkish intermediaries. [The U.S. still considers HTS a terrorist group, but a lesser evil of a terrorist group than the Islamic State (IS)-aligned jihadists that still control pockets of Syria.] •Meanwhile, Israeli troops crossed into Syria from the occupied Golan Heights to prevent jihadists from solidifying control of border regions. Israel also took advantage of Assad's (and Iran's) departure to carry out airstrikes on suspected chemical weapons and rocket manufacturing facilities across Syria. 1/2
Open source reportChina responded to new U.S. semiconductor export controls by banning U.S.-bound exports of gallium, germanium, antimony, and selected superhard minerals.
Open source reportThe United States formally recognized Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia as Venezuela’s president-elect. Opposition tallies showing him defeating Maduro by nearly two to one; Gonzalez fled to Spain in September amid fears for his life.
Open source reportThe United States, United Kingdom, France and Germany were trying to dissuade Israel from enforcing the measure. IOM director said the organization could not replace UNRWA.
Open source reportOff leash update 17 October ***The IDF successfully eliminated Hama's leader Yahya Sinwar Venezuela •Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado denied Pres. Maduro's claim that she's fled the country for Spain: "Venezuelans know that I am here in Venezuela, the people know it and Nicolas Maduro also knows it." •Machado remains - wisely - in hiding and out of reach of police seeking to arrest her on bogus, politically-motivated charges. She told an independent TV channel that Maduro and his cronies "are desperate to know where I am and I'm not going to give them that pleasure." Ukraine •Pres. Zelensky was deprived of an opportunity to do a grand reveal of his "victory plan" during last week's multilateral meeting on Ukraine, but he instead pitched the plan bilaterally during a whirlwind tour meeting leaders of the UK, U.S., France, Italy, and Germany. •Yesterday, Zelensky shared the high-level plan with Ukraine's parliament and the media. •Its centerpiece is a request for NATO to extend an unconditional invitation to Ukraine to join its alliance - which has not been forthcoming - and it also calls on partners to expand their military support for Ukraine. •None of the plan's five public points contained any major new proposals - yet Zelensky insisted that "if we start implementing this Victory Plan now, we may be able to end the war no later than next year." (The plan also proposed three "secret" points that were selectively shared with partners). •So far, it's received a muted response. NATO's SecGen, Mark Rutte, said the alliance would "take note" of Zelensky's proposal, and several partners announced minor new aid packages (the U.S. offered $425 million in fresh military support - including for air defenses - and Australia said it would send Ukraine 50 old M1 Abrams tanks worth $164 million). Hezbollah •Israel brushed off a U.S. warning that it "had concerns with and [is] opposed to" Israel's strikes on Beirut and carried out more airstrikes on Hezbollah targets near the Lebanese capital yesterday, killing at least 16. •Israel didn't officially comment on the other U.S. critique conveyed yesterday - an ultimatum to improve aid flows to Gaza within 30 days or risk losing access to new U.S. weapons - but there was a slight uptick in humanitarian aid flows to Gaza. Yesterday, 50 aid trucks entered the strip - more than the recent rate of 30 per day but still far short of the 350 per day that aid officials say Gazans need. Iran •U.S. B-2 Spirit bombers targeted five underground Houthi weapons facilities yesterday. •The airstrikes were ostensibly carried out to "further degrade the Houthis' capability" to threaten Red Sea shipping, but the choice to use B-2s to strike underground targets was also intended to send a message to Iran that its underground nuclear sites could be next. •(The B-2 is the only U.S. plane that can carry the largest "bunker buster" bombs capable of destroying Iran's underground nuclear sites, and it has never before been used in Yemen - where F/A-18s can do the same job cheaper and with less fleet risk). •SecDef Austin alluded to the Yemen operation being a broader signal to Iran by calling it: "a unique demonstration of the United States’ ability to target facilities that our adversaries seek to keep out of reach, no matter how deeply buried underground, hardened or fortified." •Separately, there are unconfirmed reports that Iranian border guards massacred dozens - or perhaps scores - of Afghans trying to illegally enter Iran from Pakistan on Sunday. •Beijing's latest war games succeeded in scaring Taiwan. A senior Taiwanese security official told Reuters that the unprecedented drills showed that the People's Liberation Army is "increasing the building up of their capacity to turn military exercises into a conflict" and assessed that "this drill presented more of a threat than ever before to Taiwan."
Open source reportAttacks on Hezbollah communications equipment, developments in the Russia-Ukraine war, Venezuela’s post-election dispute, elections in Jammu-Kashmir, and a U.S. interest-rate cut.
Open source reportThe United States and Saudi Arabia invited Sudan’s warring parties to talks in Switzerland the following month. RSF leader Hemedti accepted, while Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan had not responded.
Open source reportRussian authorities blamed the United States for supplying ATACMS missiles used by Ukraine in a strike that killed at least four civilians. Ukraine targeted military sites and that interception over a crowded beach caused fragments to fall on civilians.
Open source reportChinese forces seized two Philippine supply boats after colliding with a third. U.S. officials called China’s conduct aggressive and reiterated that the 1951 defense treaty applies in the event of an armed attack on the Philippines.
Open source reportFour Russian naval vessels arrived in Havana, that Cuban officials denied the vessels carried weapons, and that the United States was monitoring them.
Open source reportThe United States will provide Ukraine with a second Patriot missile system. The system will come from Poland after the U.S. forces it currently protects rotate home.
Open source reportThe United States was considering a bilateral arrangement with Hamas to secure the release of five American hostages. Possible U.S. concessions were unspecified.
Open source reportThe non-enforceable censure is unlikely to induce Iranian cooperation, despite the number of states supporting it.
Open source reportCoalition pressures in India, policy uncertainty after Mexico’s election, Gaza ceasefire negotiations, Iran-Israel tensions, UAE engagement with a Taliban official and new U.S. asylum restrictions.
Open source reportKim Yo Jong rejected allegations that North Korea supplied weapons to Russia, while the United States and South Korea maintain that transfers included artillery, missiles and other conventional arms.
Open source reportDiplomatic signaling in Belgrade, British action against Russia, potential U.S. limits on weapons for Israel, and an Islamic State claim in Afghanistan.
Open source reportA narrowing Gaza ceasefire window, announced Russian tactical nuclear drills, a U.S. soldier’s detention in Vladivostok; loyalty oaths in North Korea and prospective airline returns to Tripoli.
Open source reportBlinken stated in Tel Aviv that the United States would not support a major Rafah operation without an effective plan to protect civilians, adding that Washington had not seen such a plan.
Open source reportIraq's pro-Iran Popular Mobilisation Forces accused the United States of striking one of its bases near Baghdad and killing one militant.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 19 April Israel and Iran •Israel launched at least one missile - and perhaps some drones - into Iran, and Iran's air defenses were heard in Isfahan and Tabriz provinces. •Iran said its air defenses successfully downed some Israeli drones, but explosions heard near Isfahan suggested they may have missed others. •Isfahan is where one of Iran's main nuclear enrichment and missile facilities is located, but Israel had assured the U.S. before the strike that it wouldn't target nuclear facilities. Indeed, Iranian officials told the NYT the Isfahan strikes hit a military air base instead. •Israeli media say the intent was to have the last word without inflicting such a black eye that Iran's hardliners will demand re-re-retaliation. •Separately, the U.S. vetoed a UN Security Council resolution that would have brought a vote on Palestinian statehood to the full General Assembly, where it probably would've passed (around 140 countries of the 193 UN member states have already recognized Palestine to some degree). •U.S. Deputy Ambassador to the UN explained afterwards that the veto "does not reflect opposition to Palestinian statehood but instead is an acknowledgment that it will only come from direct negotiations between the parties." Russia •Germany arrested two men suspected of plotting with Russia to sabotage military facilities - including Grafenwoehr, where U.S. soldiers carry out M1 Abrams tank training with Ukrainian troops. •Separately - though perhaps linked to the same foreign intelligence handlers - Poland arrested one of its nationals for allegedly spying for Russia as part of an early plot to assassinate Ukraine's Pres. Zelensky. Polish police say the suspect "proactively established contact" with Russia. Venezuela •Though the U.S. allowed a six-month license permitting Venezuelan oil sales to expire yesterday, U.S. companies doing business in the Venezuelan oil sector will have 45 days to wind down their sales, and the exceptional license granted to Chevron (which is currently producing about 90,000 barrels per day in Venezuela) may even remain valid after that. •Pres. Maduro called the U.S. action (or rather, inaction on renewing license 44) a "grave error" and part of a "blackmail threat" [to blackmail him into holding free and fair elections?]. Other News •Kenya's military chief, Gen. Francis Ogolla, died along with nine other senior Kenyan military officials in an apparently accidental helicopter crash about 250 miles (400 km) northwest of Nairobi. Two survived, including the pilot. •Voting in the world's largest democracy - India - began today. PM Modi is sure to win reelection, but the strength of his win will be seen as a gauge of support for his policies - especially on the economy. The election runs through June 1.
Open source reportIsrael did not expect its strike on an Iranian diplomatic complex to trigger the ensuing escalation and notified the United States only shortly beforehand.
Open source reportOff Leash update 17 April Middle East •Israel's war cabinet met for a second time yesterday, but adjourned without finalizing a plan to respond to Iran's drone and missile attack over the weekend - and postponed a third meeting that was set for today. The head of its army pledged Iran's attack would "be met with a response," though. •Israel has several options on the table, but all come with risks. The war cabinet is reportedly considering another strike in a third country (like the one in Damascus that started this tit-for-tat), a cyberstrike on Iranian infrastructure, and a strike on a symbolic target in Iran. The Economist pointed out Israel is unlikely to retaliate this week ahead of the Passover holiday next week. •The U.S. and EU are working on fresh sanctions on Iran's missile and drone programs, and both Western countries and Arab states are encouraging Israel to respond by "isolating Iran" (in Pres. Macron's words) instead of striking it back - though that idea is unpalatable in Israel, where hardliners are pushing for harsher revenge. •Separately, both Hezbollah and the Israeli army confirmed that an Israeli drone strike killed another Hezbollah commander in southern Lebanon, and Hezbollah drones targeted an Iron Dome battery in northern Israel, causing three minor injuries. China •New data showed that China's real GDP grew 1.6% in Q1 2024 vs. Q4 2023, and 5.3% year on year - thanks in part to a new focus on exporting goods to make up for weak domestic spending. That surge in cheap Chinese exports is putting pressure on local manufacturers in the countries receiving them, causing leaders like Germany's Chancellor Scholz to complain to Chinese officials about the flood of exports. •China's nominal GDP grew by less than its real GDP - 4.2% year on year - indicating that prices shrank 1.1%. China hasn't seen deflation since 1999, and economists say its emergence now is evidence of a lopsided economic recovery based on exports rather than internal growth. •A Chinese marathoner, He Jie, won Sunday's Beijing Half Marathon...but only after three African runners who were leading the race waved him through right before the finish line and then finished behind him in a three-way tie for second. Race organizers are investigating the peculiar camaraderie. Venezuela •Venezuela arrested two more senior energy officials as part of an investigation into billions of dollars that went missing in a crypto fraud at state oil company PDVSA. The arrest of these two vice ministers follows last week's arrest of former oil minister - and close Maduro ally - Tarek el Aissami. •Separately, Venezuela also arrested a well-known activist accused of plotting to assassinate Pres. Maduro. Caracas has been arresting activists and dissidents for political reasons ahead of July's election, so it's not clear whether there was actually an assassination attempt involved - this could have been another politically-motivated arrest. Other News •Dubai got two years' worth of rain - 6.3" or 16 cm - in 24 hours between Monday night and last night, leading to flooding and flight diversions. It's illegal to criticize the government in the UAE, so locals who told the AP of "absolute carnage" in the floods did so anonymously.
Open source reportThe United States organized defensive coordination involving Israel, the United Kingdom, France and Jordan. Saudi Arabia acknowledged providing intelligence, while Riyadh may have viewed participation as a way to build trust with Israel and counter Iran.
Open source reportWashington denied Maduro's claim that the United States operates or plans to operate secret military bases in the Guyanese territory claimed by Venezuela. Maduro's allegation was intended to mobilize domestic supporters.
Open source reportVenezuelan President Nicolás Maduro accused the United States of establishing secret military bases in the oil-rich Guyanese territory claimed by Venezuela. Maduro may be using the allegation to generate fear and justify plans to defend Venezuela’s claim.
Open source report