Stalled Ukraine talks, jihadist violence in Nigeria, and renewed fighting in South Sudan

Off Leash update 6 Feb

UKRAINE •Trilateral peace talks between Russia, Ukraine, and U.S. negotiators lasted just three hours yesterday - and not because they reached quick agreement. •The delegates reported no progress towards resolving two of the thorniest issues blocking a peace deal: the future of the Donbas region and post-war security guarantees for Ukraine. •Ukraine and Russia did, however, agree to another prisoner swap, and the U.S. and Russia agreed to restart talks between their militaries after a four-year lull. •Separately, Russia's deputy head of military intelligence, Lt. Gen. Vladimir Alexeyev, was shot several times in an assassination attempt in his apartment building in Moscow this morning. Alexeyev was hospitalized with serious injuries. •It's not clear who was behind the attack. Ukraine has claimed several similar targeted attacks on senior figures inside Russia, and it was probably also responsible for others it didn't publicly claim.

NIGERIA •Jihadists killed over 170 people - mostly Muslims - in Nigeria's western Kwara State. •Pres. Bolo Tinubu deployed an army battalion to the region "to checkmate the barbaric terrorists and protect defenceless communities." Tinubu is under U.S. pressure to do more to combat Islamic terrorism in Nigeria so Pres. Trump doesn't feel compelled to intervene again with fresh airstrikes. •Tinubu's office said the Kwara gunmen sought revenge on villagers who had "rejected their obnoxious attempt at indoctrination." That's consistent with local reports that the attackers were Islamists who sought to preach in the villages but became enraged when villagers rejected their extremist ideology and refused their orders to adopt Sharia law. •Tinubu blamed the attack on Boko Haram, but he may be using the name of Nigeria's best-known jihadist group as a catch-all for unrelated Islamic terrorists. A local lawmaker said the attackers were part of the Lakurawa, an armed group linked to Islamic State. •Meanwhile, the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) said the last 166 hostages abducted in last month's attacks on churches in nearby Kaduna state had finally been freed. CAN didn't say whether ransoms were paid, but they likely were. Critics suggest paying ransoms incentivizes further kidnappings.

SOUTH SUDAN •The South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF) announced that it had recaptured parts of Jonglei from the rival Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army in Opposition (SPLM/A-IO). •The SPLM/A-IO acknowledged it was withdrawing from Jonglei, but unconvincingly called the move a "deliberate and part of a broader operational strategy rather than a sign of defeat." The SPLM/A-IO also accused the SSPDF of genocide, rape, and other heinous atrocities in Jonglei. •The sudden shift raised fears of a reopened civil war pitting Pres. Kiir and the SSPDF against Kiir's First Vice President, Riek Machar (who has been in detention since last year), and the SPLM/A-IO.