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Russia launched one of its largest attacks yet against Kyiv. The attack will strengthen President Zelensky’s calls for additional Patriot air-defense missiles.
Unverified development · updated through
Russia launched one of its largest attacks yet against Kyiv. The attack will strengthen President Zelensky’s calls for additional Patriot air-defense missiles.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Russia dossier
121 mapped developments across 27 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Tatarstan
Ukraine conducted a drone attack against an oil refinery in Tatarstan, more than 1,000 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. Local authorities described the damage as minimal and acknowledged that several people were injured.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 20 July 2026 COMING UP THIS WEEK •Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burhnam is set to become the next British prime minister today. •Tomorrow, Lebanon's Pres. Aoun will become the first Lebanese president in almost 20 years to visit the White House. •The Commonwealth Games start Thursday in Glasgow, and Comic-Con runs from Thursday through Sunday in San Diego, California. •On Friday, Pres. Trump will attend a rescheduled White House Press correspondents' dinner. Security will be tight to prevent another incident like the shooting that derailed the first dinner. •The 113th Tour de France ends Sunday on the Champs-Élysées in Paris. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,151/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $35,176/ton •Bitcoin: $64,220 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $13,526/ton •Ethereum: $1,863 •Gold: $4,021/toz •Lead: $1,883/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.86/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $82.74/barrel •Zinc: $3,526/ton IRAN •Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) said that two oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz via the southern route Iran has called "unsafe" and warned ships not to use were - passive voice intentional - "exploded and were forced to cease movement." The IRGC didn't explicitly say it fired on the imperiled tankers, but nobody else is striking ships along the southern route that the U.S. Navy is trying to secure. •At least three U.S. soldiers were killed in combat over the weekend: two died in an Iranian missile attack on a U.S. base in Jordan that left another serviceman missing, and one died during a botched operation to defuse a downed Iranian drone in northern Iraq. •U.S. SecState Rubio says the U.S. is still open to negotiating with Iran, and there are limited signs of ongoing diplomacy. But discreet peace talks are getting much less airtime than the nine straight nights of airstrikes the U.S. has carried out on Iranian infrastructure (and Iran's retaliatory attacks on regional allies of the U.S.). •The NYT, citing analysts, warned that infrastructure strikes and U.S. casualties represent an escalation that could prove hard to walk back from. YEMEN •Indeed, Iran reportedly called on its proxy in Yemen, the Houthis, to help ignite a regional conflict by closing the Bab al Mandeb maritime chokepoint if the U.S. strikes Iran's power grid. •The Houthis recently reopened a long-frozen conflict with Saudi Arabia, and seem ready to join their sponsor's side in a regional war. LEBANON •Lebanon's Pres. Aoun will use his meeting with Pres. Trump tomorrow to seek Trump's help pressuring Israel to make good on its commitment to withdraw from two "pilot zones" in southern Lebanon so the Lebanese Army can assume control of them. •That's the first step in a U.S.-backed agreement signed June 26 to end fighting between Israel and Hezbollah. Aoun will then want further U.S. (and international - but not Israeli) help to disarm Hezbollah. UKRAINE •Ukraine struck two warehouses belonging to the Russian online retailer Wildberries. Pres. Zelensky said the warehouses were being used to "supply sanctioned components for drone production and navigation equipment." •They're also symbolic targets for Ukraine's efforts to disrupt daily Russian life and bring the war home to Russians, whose president has sought to isolate them from the effects of the conflict. •Russia responded with one of the largest bombardments yet on Kyiv. The Russian barrage is likely to amplify Zelensky's calls for more Patriot missiles to defend against future such strikes. UK •Andy Burnham - who will become the UK's next prime minister today . •He faces tough challenges governing at the national level. He'll want to maintain good ties with the U.S. and Pres. Trump, make plans to revive Britain's sluggish economy, and ease a fractious debate about immigration.
Open source reportRenewed U.S.–Iran exchanges; a possible path toward intermittent conflict; and U.S. policy moves affecting Ukraine and Spain.
Open source reportOff Leash update 3 July 2026 UKRAINE AND RUSSIA •Russia pummeled Kyiv with 74 ballistic missiles and 496 drones overnight, killing at least 27 in what Kyiv mayor (and former heavyweight boxing champion) Vitaly Klitschko called the "most massive attack" on the capital yet, in terms of the number of weapons deployed and locations struck. •The Economist hypothesized that Russia's attack "was probably retribution for Ukrainian drone attacks in June that disabled Moscow’s oil refinery," leaving the Kremlin "angry and frustrated." •Meanwhile, Russian legislator Nina Ostanina boldly accused Pres. Putin's government of concealing the extent of the fuel crisis resulting from Ukraine's long-range strikes on energy infrastructure. •Ostanina claimed that almost one-third of Russia's refineries are now offline, which sounds far more dire than Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak's acknowledgement that "certain gas stations" were a little low on fuel. (Ostanina's rare openness wasn't motivated by a desire to spread the truth because it's the right thing to do; rather, she's concerned that voters will punish elected officials like her for misleading them once they learn the truth.) NORDSTREAM •This week, German prosecutors indicted Ukrainian army officer Serhiy Kuznietsov on war crimes charges related to the 2022 sabotage attack on the Baltic Nord Stream pipeline that was set to supply Russian gas to Germany. •In the course of their indictment, prosecutors alleged that Ukrainian "state authorities" ordered the attack and Kuznietsov merely carried it out. •Kyiv certainly had a motive to cut off a key source of its enemy's future war funding. It also had a reason to conceal its state involvement: Germany was and is one of Ukraine's strongest supporters in Europe, and Kyiv wouldn't have wanted to risk antagonizing its backers in Berlin with an attack on a key potential source of German energy. With these new charges, Kyiv will have some explaining to do. VENEZUELA •Venezuela now estimates that last week's twin earthquakes killed over 2,500 people; thousands are still missing. •Emerging reports suggest that interim President Delcy Rodriguez's government has severely botched its response to the disaster. •Residents of the hardest-hit state, La Guaira, say they got no government help until well after the crucial first 48 hours after the tremors. When government responders finally arrived, they did little to help. Residents criticized soldiers for standing around while volunteers dug through rubble, and eyewitnesses reported that four policemen sent into a ruined building to rescue a child came out with bags of U.S. dollar bills instead of a survivor. (Rodriguez implausibly claims that all such negative reports are misinformed and politically motivated.) •The botched response is likely to fuel public resentment of Rodriguez and her feckless government - although, to be fair, Rodriguez inherited a chronically corrupt and inept government and lacked the resources with which to turn it around in the six months she's been in charge. •Many - including The Economist - are calling for the U.S. government, which installed Rodriguez after capturing her predecessor, to step in and help. IRAN •U.S. intelligence suggested that Israel may have been planning to assassinate several of Iran's more pragmatic leaders - including foreign minister Abbas Araghchi and parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf - this spring as U.S.-Iran peace talks got underway. •The U.S. reportedly asked Israel to refrain from targeting Araghchi or Ghalibaf - both of whom were (and are) deeply involved in nascent negotiations that would certainly have been derailed if one or both of them were taken out. •Separately, the Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. negotiators dangled an offer to unfreeze some of the $100 billion in Iranian funds overseas banks in exchange for Iran's agreement to abandon its plans to charge tolls for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. •The offer wasn't rich enough for Tehran, whose negotiators rejected it. Iran's leaders are increasingly convinced that they have the right to profit from traffic through the Strait and are entitled to their frozen funds anyway under the terms of the memorandum of understanding they signed with the U.S. SYRIA •A bombing killed at least nine people at a crowded cafe in central Damascus today. •Saraya Ansar al-Sunnah - a little-known jihadist group - claimed the blast, but Syrian authorities think Islamic State was actually responsible for it.
Open source reportOff Leash update 2 July 2026 UKRAINE •The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a U.S.-based thinktank, published a new analysis estimating casualties from Russia's nearly four-and-a-half years of war in Ukraine. •CSIS estimates that Ukraine has suffered 525,000 to 625,000 losses, including 125,000 to 150,000 deaths, while Russia has lost 1.4 million troops, including 450,000 killed in action (which CSIS notes is "more than four times greater than all U.S. fatalities in all wars combined since World War II, and more than nine times greater than all Soviet and Russian fatalities in all wars combined since World War II"). •CSIS also points out that the relative casualty rates have shifted dramatically in Ukraine's favor lately. While Russia lost two to three soldiers for every Ukrainian casualty for much of the war, this year it has suffered eight casualties for every one it inflicted on Ukraine. CSIS attributes the shift to Ukraine's intensified use of advanced drones, including some with AI-enabled targeting. IRAN •Qatar reported "positive progress" in indirect talks it mediated between the U.S. and Iran, but it sounds like all they really agreed on was to keep talking about the issues they still disagree on, like nuclear restrictions on Iran. •Talks are now on hold until after Iran concludes funeral ceremonies for former supreme leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed in a U.S. airstrike on February 28. •Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf - Iran's parliament speaker and lead negotiator - called for a large turnout for Khamenei's funeral spectacle "so the world knows that the noble and honorable nation of Iran will not stay silent in the face of oppression and arrogance." He also called on the U.S. and Israel to "to avoid any miscalculations" during the processions. LIBYA •U.S. State Department officials hosted visitors from two of Libya's rival governments last week: Lt. Gen. Saddam Haftar of the eastern Libyan National Army (LNA) met with SecState Rubio, and the Deputy Defense Minister of the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU) met Deputy SecState Landau (along with Pres. Trump's Special Advisor, Massad Boulos, and AFRICOM Deputy Commander Lt. Gen. Brennan). •The Atlantic Council pointed out the optics of giving the leader of an armed faction an audience with the Secretary of State but snubbing the long over stayed UN anointed representative of an "interim government." •Moreover, The Atlantic Council suggests that entertaining the LNA's claims to power "formaliz[es] the families and patronage networks that already dominate" Libyan politics and "turns managed instability into a formal settlement." TRADE •Yesterday was the deadline to renew the U.S.-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trilateral trade agreement, and - as anticipated - the U.S. opted not to lock in another 16-year term. Instead, the three neighbors will review the deal annually, giving them an opportunity to renegotiate key parts of the pact. •Pres. Trump has turned particularly critical of the deal, which he signed during his first term and once called "the fairest, most balanced, and beneficial trade agreement we have ever signed into law." He has since taken a tougher stance on trade and now hopes to squeeze more concessions from Canada and Mexico to close the U.S. trade deficit with its neighbors.
Open source reportOff Leash update 1 July 2026 IRAN •Iran's speaker of parliament asserted that his government will not engage the U.S. in negotiations towards a final peace deal until all terms of the interim memorandum of understanding are met, and warned that Iran is "prepared for war" if its conditions are not met. •That's a problem, since one of the terms of the MoU - at least in Iran's reading of it - requires Israel to end its war against Hezbollah and withdraw from Lebanon - something that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu insists won't happen until Hezbollah "is eliminated." CHINA •The European Union ended its duty-free exemption for low-value imports and introduced a €3 ($3.4) levy on imported packages valued under €150. •The new fee is aimed at dirt-cheap Chinese importers like Temu and Shein, whose offers of absurdly low prices and free shipping have stolen market share from European rivals. The U.S. ended a similar exemption on duties for imports worth less than $800 last year. AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN •Afghanistan retaliated against Pakistan's airstrikes over the weekend with "air strikes" of its own on Pakistan's Balochistan province. •Pakistan said it shot down four primitive Afghan drones and reported no serious damage or casualties, but warned its neighbor that any new strikes "would receive a befitting response." •Russia urged the warring neighbors to "end the armed conflict and resolve disputed issues through political and diplomatic means" - which is perhaps something Russia has heard itself. SOUTH AFRICA •Thousands of South Africans marched in anti-migrant protests yesterday, but the demonstrations didn't get as unruly as some had feared. •That's likely partly because security forces were prepared for unrest and quelled flare-ups quickly. It also probably helped that an estimated 25,000 undocumented migrants heeded the agitators' calls to leave before yesterday's deadline. •Still, the anti-immigrant groups behind the protests are unlikely to be satisfied by the pace of repatriations and will likely continue to (largely unfairly) blame immigrants for South Africa's woes as long as unemployment remains high.
Open source reportOff Leash update 29 June 2026 COMING UP THIS WEEK •Leaders from the Latin American trading bloc Mercosur meet tomorrow in Paraguay. They're expected to formally announce an economic partnership with Japan. •Tomorrow is the "deadline" that anti-immigrant groups gave undocumented immigrants to leave South Africa. There's growing concern that the protests the agitators planned for tomorrow could turn violent. •Canada celebrates Canada Day on Wednesday. •Saturday marks the semiquincentennial (250th anniversary) of the adoption of the U.S. Declaration of Independence. •The Tour de France starts Saturday in Spain. The 113th edition of the cycling race features 21 stages covering 3,300 km (2,050 miles) over 23 days. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,180/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $35,022/ton •Bitcoin: $59,983 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $13,358/ton •Ethereum: $1,579 •Gold: $4,064/toz •Lead: $1,904/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.27/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $69.85/barrel •Zinc: $3,472/ton RUSSIA •Pres. Putin conceded that Ukraine's long-range drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure "are creating problems," adding, "that's obvious." •It was the first time Putin directly acknowledged that Ukrainian strikes have caused "a certain shortage" in Russia's fuel supplies, but he insisted the situation was "not critical." •The shortage appears to be critical enough to motivate Russia to consider importing gasoline from abroad, though: media reports suggest the Kremlin is already seeking fuel imports from Kazakhstan and India. AFGHANISTAN •Pakistan carried out another round of cross-border airstrikes targeting alleged Pakistani Taliban hideouts in Afghanistan. •Afghanistan's Taliban government, as usual, said the strikes killed only civilians and complained about Pakistan's violations of its sovereignty and airspace. •The Pakistani strikes were a retaliation for - among other incidents - a militant attack the day before on the Karachi regional headquarters of the paramilitary Pakistan Rangers that killed three soldiers and was claimed by Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, a breakaway faction of the Pakistani Taliban. •Pakistan accuses the Afghan Taliban of supporting and sheltering the Pakistani Taliban and other militant groups carrying out attacks inside Pakistan, but Islamabad's real issue is that the attacks reveal its inability to defend its territory. Kabul is a convenient scapegoat to blame its internal failures on. SERBIA •Serbia's Pres. Aleksandar Vucic gave in to 18 months of student-led protests against his government and said he would step down within weeks. •However, Vucic's resignation failed to quell the protests or satisfy his critics, who - with good reason - believe he's only superficially stepping down and intends to stay in power behind the scenes. Indeed, he gave no clear timeline for elections to replace him, and said he would "help" his ruling Serbian Progressive Party in the next election. •Analysts believe his plan is to resign from the mostly-ceremonial presidency only to seek to return to the more powerful role of prime minister, which he held from 2014 to 2017. VENEZUELA •Bloomberg reported that Venezuela's popular exiled opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado, is trying to return to her country as soon as possible, in light of the disastrous earthquakes that struck last week. •Analysts suggest Machado wants to be waiting in the wings to rally her many supporters behind a bid to challenge interim President Delcy Rodriguez if Rodriguez's government bungles its disaster response. •The U.S. - which installed Rodriguez in her post after capturing her predecessor, Nicolas Maduro - reportedly denied Machado's request for help returning to Venezuela this week, with one U.S. official calling it a "political stunt." The U.S. likely prefers she bide her time and let Rodriguez's government focus on relief efforts instead of political rivalry. IRAN •The U.S. and Iran traded retaliatory strikes over the weekend before agreeing to "stand down for now" - conveniently just in time for U.S. market open. (Iran didn't confirm the detente but appears likely to uphold it.) •The NYT wrote that the four-day flare-up was part of a "necessary gambit" for Iran to assert its control over the Strait of Hormuz so it can retain leverage over the U.S. in ongoing negotiations for a final peace deal. LEBANON •Israel and Lebanon agreed to a framework for a peace deal, but didn't share details. •U.S. SecState Rubio - who helped mediate the proto-agreement - described it as only the first step in "what will be a difficult journey." The main point of the accord is to secure Lebanon's help in containing Hezbollah, which was not part of the deal and swiftly condemned it.
Open source reportOff Leash update 24 June 2026 IRAN •Kpler, a data firm, reported that 109 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz between Saturday and Monday. That's the most in a three-day period since the war began, but still far below the average daily pre-war rate of ~130 per day. •Iran does not appear to be restricting transits through the Strait - as it had threatened to do until all the conditions of its 60-day peace deal with the U.S. are met. Rather, shipping traffic seems constrained by the fact that vessels are avoiding the main central route through the Strait because of mines Iran laid in it. •The central route's closure is forcing ships through one of two alternate routes: a northern one that passes through Iranian waters, and a southern one that skirts Oman. •Iran has ordered all ships to use the northern route (and to request permission first), but many vessels seem to be flouting Iran's directive and taking the southern route under the watch of U.S. Navy vessels overseeing the area. AFGHANISTAN •The EU hosted a delegation from Afghanistan's Taliban government for the first time since the Taliban returned to power in 2021. •The meeting agenda was fairly innocuous - they talked about resuming consular services for Afghans in Europe and "the need for trust-building measures" to pave the way for EU countries to send failed Afghan asylum-seekers back - but the mere fact that the EU dignified a repressive regime with a meeting didn't sit well with rights groups. VENEZUELA •Venezuela is preparing to restructure its debt so it can reach a deal with its patient creditors and eventually re-enter international financial markets. •One of the first steps towards restructuring is to tally the total debt in question. Venezuela's government plans to reveal its outstanding borrowings in the coming weeks, and the Financial Times reported that the total figure is going to be a massive $240 billion. That's much higher than the $150-200 billion analysts expected and would make for the largest sovereign restructuring in history. •Caracas also plans to release a broader macroeconomic report that reportedly estimates its GDP at just $100 billion, compared to $370 billion in 2012. That puts its debt-to-GDP ratio at a highly unsustainable level of 240%. Caracas likely hopes that shocking figure will help convince its creditors to write down the debt they're owed. RUSSIA AND UKRAINE •Ukraine's long-range strikes on Russian refineries have had such a severe impact on fuel supplies that Moscow is reportedly considering importing gasoline from abroad - and subsidizing it to soften the pain of higher prices for Russian consumers and companies. •A related Ukrainian campaign aims to cut off Russian-occupied Crimea's fuel supplies by targeting transport and shipping routes between the peninsula and mainland Russia. The resulting fuel shortages are squeezing Crimea's economy and choking off its important tourism sector: one tour company told RBC that 80% of its June bookings were cancelled. •Raising the cost of the war for Moscow was precisely the goal behind Kyiv's long-range strikes on Russia and Crimea, which Pres. Zelensky calls "long-range sanctions."
Open source reportOff Leash update 19 June 2026 IRAN •The U.S. and Iran were due to start negotiating a final peace agreement today, but abruptly cancelled talks. •Axios reported that Iran called off the summit as a consequence of Israel's continued strikes on southern Lebanon. Iran considers Israel's fresh strikes to be a violation of the first point of the text of the memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran - the text of which was released Wednesday. •Pres. Trump is getting a lot of flak for the contents of that text. The NYT called it "basically a list of concessions to Iran with little - if anything - concrete to show for it on the U.S. side." •More unusually, the text even drew criticism from some hawkish Republicans like Sen. Bill Cassidy - who called it "the worst foreign policy blunder in decades" - and Sen. Roger Wicker - who chairs the Armed Forces Committee and fumed that the deal offers Iran juicy rewards like sanctions relief and cash "in exchange for Iran’s mere agreement to negotiate for another 60 days." •Such a resoundingly negative reaction makes me wonder if Trump will also get cold feet about moving forward with negotiations for a final peace agreement. •[Trump's team claims the text was deliberately left short and sweet so Iran's hardliners could agree to it; they say Iran agreed to tougher and more explicit commitments in back-channel talks.] UK •Popular Manchester mayor Andy Burnham easily won a key special election yesterday. The win was pivotal for Burnham because it gives him a seat in Parliament - which is a necessary requirement for being able to challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer for the leadership of the Labour Party, and thus the premiership. •Burnham stands a good chance of beating Starmer, who is deeply unpopular even within his own party and polls as the least popular British Prime Minister on record. UKRAINE AND RUSSIA •Ukraine launched another round of long-range strikes deep inside Russia yesterday, including its largest attack yet on Moscow. Pres. Zelensky said it was retaliation for Russia's strike on a historic monastery in Kyiv earlier this week: "If Ukraine burns, then your Moscow will burn as well." Russia threatened re-retaliation. •The Economist tallied some figures that show how much Kyiv has stepped up its long-range game. In the three years from 2022 through 2024, Ukraine completed a total of 338 reported strikes on targets at least 100 km from its borders, or about 120 strikes per year. Last year, it completed 658 such strikes, and it's on track to complete more than 800 this year. •Many of Ukraine's long-range strikes have targeted oil infrastructure like refineries and ports, causing damage that has reduced Russian oil refinery production by 15% between the first four months of last year and the same period this year - that's despite high oil prices, which usually stimulate more production. NIGER •Gunmen assaulted Niamey's international airport early this morning, engaging Nigerien soldiers in a half-hour gun battle that killed at least 35, including 11 soldiers and two civilians. •Al Qaeda's local affiliate, Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), claimed this morning's attack in a social media post. •That catches JNIM up with its regional rival, Islamic State - Sahel Province (ISSP), which attacked the same airport in January. JNIM and ISSP are likely to continue to stage high-impact attacks on symbolic targets as their rivalry escalates. SUDAN •The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) appears poised to launch an offensive on government-controlled El Obeid. •The RSF has beseiged the capital of North Kordofan state for 18 months, offering its civilian population a glimpse of the horrors that might unfold in a battle to control it. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights urged both sides to "stop this madness."
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 June 2026 IRAN AND ISRAEL •The U.S. and Iran exchanged another round of strikes, but - as in other recent flare-ups - both sides exercised a modicum of restraint and justified their attacks as exact retaliation for specific incidents in an effort to uphold the broader ceasefire. •First, a U.S. AH-64 Apache helicopter went down near the Strait of Hormuz. Both pilots were rescued, but Pres. Trump blamed Iran for downing the gunship and ordered strikes against air defense and radar sites in southern Iran in retaliation. •Then Iran re-retaliated with drone attacks on U.S. military sites in the region, including U.S. Navy assets in Bahrain and a U.S. base in Jordan. •Iran accused the U.S. of "undermining" the fragile ceasefire, but neither side seems eager to abandon the truce or diplomatic negotiations, which Trump said Monday were "two or three days" away from reaching an agreement. •So the fragile detente holds, although - as The Economist noted - "the more the ceasefire is tested, the more likely it is to collapse entirely." UKRAINE •The European Union (EU) proposed a number of new measures to penalize Russia for its war in Ukraine. One idea would bar Russian soldiers and veterans who served in Ukraine from ever entering the EU; another would maintain the low $44 per barrel cap on Russian oil through 2027. This is the EU's 21st package of sanctions on Russia since the war began. PAKISTAN •Pakistan carried out another round of cross-border airstrikes inside Afghanistan that Islamabad claimed killed at least 26 Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan militants in three Afghan provinces. Afghanistan said the strikes killed at least 13 civilians, including 11 children. •Despite flare-ups like this, the neighboring countries are still technically observing a tenuous ceasefire that China helped mediate in March. NORTH KOREA •China's Xi Jinping concluded two days of meetings with Kim Jong Un in North Korea. State media stuck to their orders and celebrated vague pleasantries without divulging any real insight into what Xi and Kim discussed. •Analysts instead honed in on what was omitted from state media reports: Xi said nothing about North Korea's nuclear program - even though Pres. Trump claimed after his meeting with Xi last month that the two had agreed to work towards denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula. •One analyst suggested that Xi's avoidance of the nuclear topic with Kim suggests that Beijing has made "a very significant policy change to tacitly accept the reality of a nuclear North Korea" for the sake of maintaining strong bilateral relations with Pyongyang. EUROPE •Germany pulled out of the Future Combat Air System, a planned project to build a European fighter jet with France and Spain. •The project had been on life support after two French aviation majors - Dassault and Airbus - publicly disagreed over how to manage it, and Berlin's departure will probably be the long-anticipated death knell for the program, since France and Spain probably don't have the funding (or political will) to continue without Germany's support.
Open source reportOff Leash update 3 June 2026 IRAN •The U.S. struck Iran's Qeshm Island in retaliation for Iranian fire that downed an American MQ-1 Reaper drone, and Iran fired drones and missiles at Kuwait and Bahrain. •Kuwait said several drone strikes hit its airport, injuring at least 63 people and damaging the main terminal building, and these were Iran's first strikes on Bahrain since the temporary U.S.-Iran ceasefire went into effect almost two months ago. •Despite the exchanges of fire, Pres. Trump says peace talks are still "going on." RUSSIA •Ukraine launched over 350 drones into Russia to menace several major cities, including Moscow, Novgorod, and St. Petersburg - where an economic forum dubbed "Putin's Davos" was underway. •Russia said it intercepted the vast majority of the incoming drones, but it still reported several injuries and extensive damage to infrastructure. GUINEA •Guinea's massive Simandou mine almost doubled its iron ore exports in May compared to April, exporting 2.2 million tons through Morebaya port in May against 1.3 million tons in April. •The project - which sent its first ore to China just six months ago - has been ramping up quickly: April's total exports were more than double the 0.6 million tons shipped in the first three months of the year. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE •Pres. Trump signed an executive order asking technology companies to voluntarily give the U.S. government pre-release oversight of their new artificial intelligence models. •That's a looser requirement than Trump had initially planned to impose: a previous executive order would have mandated a 90-day government review period for new models, but that idea was scrapped last month. The new voluntary measure still imposes more oversight than tech companies currently face - if they opt in, that is. TRADE •The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative proposed new tariffs of 10-12.5% on 60 trading partners - including Canada, China, Japan, and several European Union member states - over their failure to ban exports of goods made with forced labor. •That was the stated justification, anyway. A less-touted second rationale is to replace the Liberation Day tariffs that the U.S. Supreme Court struck down with new levies on a sounder legal basis. EBOLA •The World Health Organization said it had overestimated suspected Ebola cases in eastern DRC and Uganda by a lot: hundreds of the 906 suspected cases it estimated last week were ruled out, leaving its new estimate with just 116 suspected cases and 330 confirmed cases. •Despite the positive revision, front-line medical workers still face challenges containing the outbreak, which was identified late. Test kits and protective gear are in short supply, and it's hard to distribute more because of ongoing conflict and weak state control in the region.
Open source reportOff Leash update 2 June 2026 LEBANON AND IRAN •After a call with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, Pres. Trump said Israel and Hezbollah had agreed to pause strikes and work towards a longer-term ceasefire. •Netanyahu portrayed it slightly differently: without admitting that he'd agreed to Pres. Trump's request to observe a ceasefire with Hezbollah, Netanyahu said that if Hezbollah resumes strikes, then Israel will, too. He added that the Israeli military "will continue to operate as planned in southern Lebanon" - i.e., it will only scale back its strikes around Beirut. •Several media reports suggested that Trump was motivated to intervene with Netanyahu by an ultimatum from Iran, which threatened to abandon indirect talks with the U.S. over ending the Iran war if Israel continued to strike its proxies in Lebanon. •Separately, the NYT reported that Israel didn't anticipate Hezbollah's use of first-person view drones to target its troops, and has had to re-think its strategy in southern Lebanon to account for the drone threat: "It is now a kind of deadlock in which Hezbollah suddenly looks more capable than it did when the war began and the soldiers of the Israel Defense Forces can look startlingly helpless." CHINA •According to a new report by Wirescreen, China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) repeatedly tried to buy Nvidia's cutting-edge AI chips from at least 2019 to 2025 - even after the U.S. restricted chip sales to foreign rivals like China. [Wirescreen wasn't able to confirm whether the PLA actually received or is using any Nvidia chips.] •Nvidia has long downplayed concerns about the PLA - or China's surveillance state - relying on its chips, and a spokesman reiterated that sentiment in reaction to the latest report: "China has more than enough domestic chips for all of its military applications, with millions to spare. Just like it would be nonsensical for the American military to use Chinese technology, it makes no sense for the Chinese military to depend on American technology.” UKRAINE •Russia launched one of its biggest recent assaults on Ukraine overnight, targeting several cities and killing at least 17. More are likely trapped under rubble. •The Kremlin had warned of an impending barrage for over a week before it finally launched the attack. Some analysts think the early warnings were intended to inflict a psychological toll on Ukrainians who have spent recent days on high alert, with many sleeping in subway stations or parking lots for safety. •The Economist explained why Russia has turned to targeting Ukrainian cities: "Struggling to advance on the front line, Russia has in recent months stepped up its attacks on civilian areas." RUSSIA •Bloomberg reported that senior Russian Finance Ministry officials have raised rising alarm over the unsustainable pace of defense spending, and proposed military cuts to freeze the yawning government fiscal deficit. •Defense Ministry officials vehemently oppose the idea of cutting war spending, and are even asking for more military funding. According to Bloomberg, some argue that so many Russian businesses rely on defense contracts that cuts would harm the economy. •Several officials said Pres. Putin has asked the Finance Ministry to find cuts in other parts of the budget before resorting to defense cuts, but sanctions and four years of war have already weighed heavily on government spending and there's not much fat left to trim.
Open source reportOff Leash update 29 May 2026 IRAN •The U.S. and Iran have reportedly reached a deal to extend the current temporary ceasefire for 60 days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz while they negotiate the thornier nuclear issues they still disagree on. •Pres. Trump has yet to sign off on the new framework, but wrote on Truth Social that he's close to making a "final determination" on it. Vice Pres. Vance said Trump still had issues with "a couple of language points" in the new draft that were holding up his decision. •In fact, it sounds like they're still far apart on several basic aspects of the proposed deal. For one, Trump said the deal calls for Iran to "immediately open" the Strait of Hormuz to unrestricted traffic, while Iranian state media insisted that "no such clause in the text of the agreement." •Another discrepancy is over money. Trump asserted that "No money will be exchanged, until further notice," while Iranian state media said "the most important part of the agreement” is “the immediate payment of $12 billion of Iran’s frozen assets." ISRAEL •Iran also insists that the temporary ceasefire currently in place covers the wars that Iranian proxies - Hezbollah and Hamas - are fighting with Israel. •Israel disagrees, but the fact that it has escalated its offensive strikes in recent weeks as Iran and the U.S. got closer to a deal suggests Prime Minister Netanyahu may think Pres. Trump may ask him to restrain his forces on other fronts to preserve a fragile truce with Iran. •Israel's escalation continued yesterday and today. The Israeli military struck targets in southern Beirut for the first time in weeks, and Netanyahu also ordered his military to seize at least 70% of Gaza - despite the fact that doing so would violate the October ceasefire agreement, in which Israel agreed to limit its occupation of the territory to just over half its area. RUSSIA •A drone - allegedly Russian - struck an apartment building in Galati, Romania, injuring two people. •European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen complained that the incursion "crossed yet another line," and Romania's Foreign Minister mused about invoking NATO's Article 4, which opens a discussion about threats to a NATO member's security. Article 4 is a step below Article 5, which requires all NATO members to come to the defense of any member under attack.
Open source reportOff Leash update 13 May IRAN •U.S. intelligence agencies have reportedly been painting a very different picture of Iran's surviving military capabilities in classified briefings than the outlook we're hearing from Pres. Trump and Secretary of War Hegseth. •The agencies assess that Iran has regained operational access to 30 of its 33 missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz, and could use the sites to target both military and commercial traffic through the chokepoint. •The agencies also estimated that Iran has restored access to around 90% of its underground launch and storage facilities, and retains about 70% of its prewar mobile launchers and its prewar missile stockpile (which includes both cruise and ballistic missiles). •Pres. Trump insists his starker assessments - e.g., that Iran has been "crushed" and has "nothing left in a military sense" - are accurate, and accused reporters who suggest otherwise of "virtual treason." •Separately, Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia carried out several quiet retaliatory strikes on Iran early in the war. It was the first known time that Saudi has directly struck Iran, and Riyadh apparently made it clear to Tehran that it wanted it to be the last, for now: soon after the strikes, Saudi diplomats engaged their Iranian counterparts in de-escalation talks. UKRAINE AND RUSSIA •Some optimists had hoped the three-day ceasefire Pres. Trump helped broker between Ukraine and Russia could be extended, but Russia's resumption of strikes on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure has ended those hopes. ISRAEL •Prime Minister Netanyahu's fragile ruling coalition finally looks set to collapse after Netanyahu's ultra-Orthodox coalition partners took umbrage at his plans to postpone legislation to shield their Haredi community from military service. (Netanyahu's rationale was that the measure lacked sufficient support in the current parliament and would have been rejected.) •The ultra-Orthodox Degel HaTorah faction responded angrily to the delay, saying it has "no trust in Netanyahu anymore" and calling a vote to dissolve parliament next week. •If that vote passes, new elections must be held within three months - far sooner than the current Oct. 27 deadline. •That's a problem for Netanyahu, who is trailing right-wing former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett in polls. But Netanyahu has survived tougher challenges before. •Separately, a two-year Israeli investigation concluded that Hamas and its allies perpetrated widespread sexual violence during and after the Oct. 7 attacks. It is the most comprehensive report of its kind yet, and will give prosecutors an ample base of evidence to use as they try Hamas militants for their crimes. NIGERIA •Nigeria's military was accused of another massacre of civilians in its errant pursuit of jihadist militants in the north. •The latest incident occurred on Sunday in Zamfara state: airstrikes on a market in Tumfa targeted a terrorist hideout, and - according to Amnesty International - killed over 100 civilians instead. •The military repeated the same response it always has to reports like this: it said it was only targeting militants and has seen no evidence of civilian casualties yet, but promised to investigate.
Open source reportOff Leash update 6 May UKRAINE •Ukraine and Russia both agreed to a ceasefire, but - in an indication of how much they mistrust each other - they agreed to separate ceasefires. •Ukraine's open-ended ceasefire started late yesterday and will last as long as Russia reciprocates, and Russia's - which was announced along with a threat of a "massive missile strike" if Ukraine doesn't comply - will start Friday. •Kyiv has already accused Russia of violating its ceasefire on the front lines, but hasn't torn up the truce yet. IRAN •Pres. Trump announced he was pausing "Project Freedom" - his plan to escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz - after just one day and three escorted transits, citing "great progress" that the U.S. and Iran are making towards a deal. •More likely, Project Freedom was making less progress than Trump had hoped, and Pakistani mediators convinced him it was counterproductive. Instead of freeing up shipping traffic in the Strait, the challenge of military escorts incited Iranian retaliation via small boat attacks. Only two or three escorted boats transited the Strait on Monday, and around 1,600 more remain trapped to the west. •Iran also seemed eager to de-escalate in a way that allows it to save face and claim victory. Its Speaker of Parliament claimed that a "new equation of the Strait of Hormuz is being stabilized." CHINA •Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, visited Beijing for talks with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi. It was their first in-person meeting - and Araghchi's first visit to China - since the war began, but Araghchi and Wang have spoken by phone three times since Feb. 28. •That's probably more than Araghchi has spoken with officials from any other country except those directly mediating between the U.S. and Iran. While it wasn't directly involved in mediating the current temporary ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, Beijing reportedly helped nudge Tehran to accept it. •The timing of Araghchi's visit - just one week before Pres. Xi hosts Pres. Trump - suggests Iran may hope Xi can again intercede as an unofficial mediator. TAIWAN •Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te defied Beijing's bullying and paid a visit to Taiwan's sole remaining ally in Africa, Eswatini (fka Swaziland). •Beijing had sought to block Lai's trip by ordering other African countries to deny his aircraft use of their airspace, but Lai bypassed the prohibition by flying in on an Eswatini government aircraft instead of his own. Beijing likened the clever workaround to "a rat scurrying across the street." ROMANIA •Romania's pro-European coalition government fell in an overwhelming no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan, who came to power less than a year ago as part of a motley coalition that has since broken down over Bolojan's proposed austerity measures. •President Nicusor Dan appealed for calm and promised a new, pro-Western government "within a reasonable time," while ruling out early elections. SYRIA •Syria said its security forces foiled a major terrorist attack that Lebanese Hezbollah militants were planning to carry out in coordinated operations targeting at least five different Syrian governates. •Hezbollah supported the deposed Assad regime's losing side in Syria's civil war, and has continued to agitate against the new government and its ex-rebel leaders in revenge for their efforts to cut off the smuggling routes Iran uses to supply its Lebanese proxy.
Open source reportOff Leash update 2 April IRAN •Pres. Trump used his primetime address on Iran last night to declare that the war was "nearing completion" and - having achieved its objectives - would wrap up in the next two or three weeks, with or without a deal. •Critics complained that he moved the goalposts to be able to claim victory in achieving objectives like regime change ("they’re all dead, so I would consider that regime change") and eliminating Iran's nuclear threat (he now says the 400 kg of enriched uranium that Iran could use to race towards a bomb is "so far underground, I don't care about that"). •He also offered no clear plan for ending the month-long conflict, and alternated between threats to "bring them back to the stone ages, where they belong" and claims that "discussions were ongoing" - and going well, since "we have all the cards; they have none." •Iran denies that any such discussions are taking place, and its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) seems to still have some cards left. Yesterday, it said it would start targeting the Middle East offices of major U.S. companies like Apple, Boeing, Google, JPMorgan Chase, Microsoft, and Nvidia. •While denying that talks are already underway, Iran's Pres. Pezeshkian told European Council President Antonio Costa that Iran is open to a truce as long as it includes guarantees of a permanent end to hostilities. Iranian hardliners hate the idea of negotiating any kind of truce. •Separately, Long War Journal assessed that Iran and its proxies fired fewer projectiles in the period from March 28 to April 1 than they had in earlier parts of the war, but that their recent strikes have been more accurate and effective at penetrating air defenses. IRAQ •It emerged that Kataib Hezbollah, an Iran-linked Iraqi militia, was behind the kidnapping of American journalist Shelly Kittleson in Baghdad on Tuesday. •Though Kataib Hezbollah has links to Iran, its practice of kidnapping Westerners predates the war. It kidnapped a Russian-Israeli researcher in early 2023 and held her for nearly three years before freeing her under pressure from the Trump administration. •It now wants to trade Kittleson for several of its members imprisoned in Iraq. RUSSIA AND UKRAINE •Ukraine is doing its best to hinder Russia's ability to reap windfall profits from high oil prices and temporary partial sanctions relief by targeting Russian oil export infrastructure. Ukrainian drones carried out an unprecedented scale of strikes on export facilities that took up to 40% of Russia's total crude export capacity offline. Some capacity has now been restored. •Separately, Russia claimed that its forces had taken full control of eastern Ukraine's Luhansk region. Russia has long controlled 99% of Luhansk, and has now thrice claimed to have captured the last remaining pockets of it. •Like its two previous claims, this one seems premature: the Institute for the Study of War assessed that the settlements of Nadiya and Novoyehorivka remain outside Russian control. VENEZUELA •The U.S. lifted sanctions on Venezuela's new president, Delcy Rodriguez. Rodriguez had been blacklisted since 2018 for her role as vice president in her predecessor's repressive regime. •Since the U.S. ousted her predecessor, Nicolas Maduro, and installed her in his place, she's been pliant and willing to work with the U.S. on priority goals like opening Venezuelan oil and mining assets to U.S. investment. NATO •Pres. Trump threatened to withdraw the U.S. from NATO, which he called a "paper tiger," over allies' reluctance to join his war with Iran. It's not the first time Trump has threatened to pull out of the alliance, but this time he seems more likely to follow through. Having heard the same threat before, NATO members are also probably better prepared for an alliance without the U.S.
Open source reportOff Leash update 20 March GAZA •As the U.S. and Israel pounded Iran last week, U.S. mediators shared a demilitarization proposal with Iran's Palestinian proxy, Hamas. •The offer demands a "complete handover" and "full decommissioning" of all Hamas weapons - as well as those of all other armed groups in Gaza - and guarantees support for the territory's large-scale rebuilding in return. •Hamas reportedly has about a week to formally respond, but without a biting ultimatum, its leaders will probably stall for more time to strengthen their control over Gaza so they can negotiate a softer commitment to disarmament than this proposal, which one official criticized as a "take it or leave it" offer. IRAN •The European Union and Japan issued a joint statement expressing their "readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait [of Hormuz]," but several officials involved were careful to emphasize that "appropriate efforts" did not include the military support Pres. Trump is asking allies to send. •The WSJ suggested that Trump may try to prove his claim that U.S. forces alone can reopen the strait by deploying around 2,200 Marines to seize several islands in the area and use them as a base to thwart Iranian attacks on commercial shipping. The Marine force is due to arrive from Japan next week. OIL •The U.S. Treasury Department is reportedly considering relaxing sanctions on around 140 million barrels of Iranian oil that's already loaded and at sea, in a bid to ease surging oil prices amidst wartime supply disruptions. •A similar relaxation of Russian oil sanctions last week added about 130 million barrels to the global marketplace and temporarily lowered crude prices, but prices spiked again after Israel escalated attacks on Iranian energy sites. •Critics blasted the idea of gifting two adversaries with windfall profits they can reinvest in the wars they're actively fighting against the U.S. (Iran) or its interests (Russia). •A regulatory consultant quoted in the Washington Post complained: "Two countries that we’ve spent years sanctioning are now the direct beneficiaries of a conflict the United States chose to start." CUBA •As the Trump administration mulls relaxing sanctions on Russian oil, the Kremlin is stress-testing another of its foreign policy priorities: its energy blockade on Cuba. •At least one state-owned (and U.S.-sanctioned) Russian tanker appears to be headed for Cuba to deliver the fuel-starved island 730,000 barrels of crude oil. [In a coy move, the Anatoly Kolodkin is broadcasting its destination as "Atlantis, USA," which is impossible because a) Atlantis doesn't exist, and b) sanctioned vessels are prohibited from docking in real U.S. ports. Tracking analysts say its course points to Cuba.] •The Treasury Department quickly added Cuba to the list of countries barred from buying newly-unsanctioned Russian oil (the others are North Korea, Iran, and Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine). But that's unlikely to stop Russia from testing the U.S. blockade and delivering Cuba's first oil shipment in three months. VENEZUELA •Venezuela's U.S.-backed interim president, Delcy Rodriguez, fired her long-serving defense minister, Gen. Vladimir Padrino López, and other top brass yesterday. •López and the other ousted officials had been loyal to Rodriguez's deposed predecessor, Nicolas Maduro, and likely stood in the way of the reforms the U.S. is pressuring Rodriguez to make. •However, the fact that Rodriguez appointed another long-loyal, U.S.-sanctioned hardliner - military counterintelligence chief Gustavo González - to replace López suggests she's not in a hurry to make meaningful democratic reforms. This reshuffle lets her appear to be taking action while merely consolidating power for herself.
Open source reportOff Leash update 9 March COMING UP THIS WEEK •Today is Commonwealth Day: a celebration of the 56-member Commonwealth of Nations that will be marked by a speech by King Charles III. It's also World Napping Day. •Saturday is my favorite holiday, Pi Day. •On Sunday, Vietnam will vote in national assembly elections, Congo-Brazzaville will hold a sham poll to re-elect incumbent president Denis Sassou Nguesso, and Kazakhstan will hold a constitutional referendum COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,446/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $67,626 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $12,862/ton •Ethereum: $1,991 •Gold: $5,089/toz •Lead: $1,953/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.37/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $103.40/barrel •Zinc: $3,298/ton IRAN •Israel bombed several Iranian fuel depots, causing thick smoke and acid rain. The White House was reportedly surprised by the scale of its ally's attack on (partly) civilian infrastructure and displeased by the prospect that it could backfire by angering ordinary Iranians into supporting their defiant regime. •Global oil prices reached their highest levels since 2022 on concerns that the war - and the oil supply disruptions it's causing - won't end soon. Pres. Trump told Americans that costlier gas is a "very small price" to pay for ridding the world of an evil Iranian regime, but voters may not agree in this mid-term election year. •Analysts are increasingly describing the war as a perilous game of geopolitical chicken, with each side hoping to force the other to surrender first. Iran hopes its attacks on U.S. allies in the Middle East will cause enough damage that those allies will lobby the U.S. and Israel to stop attacking. And Pres. Trump seems to be hoping that the bombardment will eventually force surviving leaders into making a deal to end their attrition. But - as today's NYT pointed out - "[n]either option promises the kind of change many Iranians might be hoping for." •Separately, Iran's Council of Experts appointed Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his father as Supreme Leader. Mojtaba is a quiet figure and his personal views and priorities aren't widely known, but his bloodline and close ties with the security services suggest he's likely to be a hardliner like his father. UKRAINE •Pres. Zelensky proudly boasted that Ukrainian interceptor drones are helping to protect U.S. military bases in Jordan, and may soon be deployed to U.S. bases in Gulf countries. •Ukraine has been battling Russia's Iranian-made Shahed drones in its skies for years, giving it an unparalleled level of experience and expertise defending against drone attacks. •Kyiv now hopes to lend that expertise to the U.S. to curry favor ahead of U.S.-brokered peace talks with Russia, but analysts are skeptical that will help ingratiate Zelensky with Pres. Trump, who continues to blame Ukraine for the failure of truce talks. NEPAL •A new party led by a former rapper, Balendra Shah, won a landslide victory in Nepal's first parliamentary election since Gen Z protests toppled the previous government. •Shah and his Rastriya Swatantra (National Independent Party) won 117 of 165 directly-elected seats. That strong majority also gives Shah a mandate to carry out the reform agenda he campaigned on - and agitated for as a protest leader before entering politics. AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN •Afghanistan's Taliban government said Pakistan attacked five of its border provinces over the weekend, and its defense minister warned that "if Kabul is attacked, Islamabad will be attacked." [Presumably he meant "If Kabul is attacked again:" Pakistan already struck Kabul earlier in this bout of fighting, and Afghanistan didn't retaliate then.] •A tenuous ceasefire ended the last round of skirmishes in October, but it broke down after fresh cross-border attacks reinvigorated Pakistan's drive to eliminate the Pakistani Taliban militants it accuses Afghanistan of harboring. •This time, neither side seems ready to talk peace. But neither can afford to wage a full-blown war over their differences either, so their fight will probably grind on as a low-level war. GUINEA •Guinea's coup leader-cum-president, Mamady Doumbouya, ordered the dissolution of 40 political parties ostensibly for failing to meet their legal and fiscal obligations. •The three largest opposition parties cried foul - though all three were already suspended in August and have few operations left to dissolve. •The country's most visible opposition leader, Cellou Dalein Diallo, called for "direct resistance" but didn't elaborate on what he had in mind.
Open source reportOff Leash update 5 March IRAN •A U.S. Navy submarine sank Iran's IRIS Dena off the coast of Sri Lanka yesterday, marking the first time since 1982 (Argentine Cruiser Belgrano) that a sub-fired torpedo sunk an enemy ship. Sri Lanka's navy rescued 32 Iranian sailors and recovered 87 bodies from the IRIS Dena, which SecDef Hegseth called Iran's "prize warship." Another 60 who were aboard the frigate are still missing. •Iran vowed retaliation, and state media claimed that its navy carried out that threat this morning when it hit a U.S. tanker in the northern Persian Gulf with a missile, causing a fire and an oil spill. That report remains unconfirmed. •Pres. Trump floated the idea of providing affordable insurance for shipping lines transiting the Strait of Hormuz, in an effort to reopen oil supply chains. One-third of seaborne crude and one-fifth of global gas pass through the Strait daily. Several marine insurers are reportedly in talks with the White House about possible facilities. •In another indication that the war is far from over, there are few signs of the defections within the regime or the popular movements organizing to overthrow it that Israel hoped would materialize once its airstrikes delivered the first blows. •Instead, U.S.-allied Iranian Kurdish forces in Iraq are preparing for a possible ground incursion into the north - perhaps in coordination with Israel's Mossad and the U.S. CIA. •Analysts suggest that the new front could distract and draw out some Iranian forces, but doubt it could topple the regime. Iran preemptively targeted the Kurdish force's headquarters in northern Iraq. UKRAINE •Russia blamed Ukraine for sinking a liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker carrying about 61,000 tons of LNG in the eastern Mediterranean on Tuesday. •The Kremlin claimed that Ukrainian forces launched "uncrewed sea drones" from the Libyan coast at the Arctic Metagaz tanker, which appears to have been part of its shadow fleet transporting sanctioned oil. •Meanwhile, Pres. Zelensky said that U.S.-Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks will resume as soon as the situation in the Middle East permits U.S. attention to shift elsewhere. CHINA •China's rubber-stamp parliament, the National People's Congress, set the country's 2026 GDP growth target at 4.5-5.0% yesterday, marking the first time in over 30 years that Beijing has aimed for less than 5% growth. •Citing an analyst, the NYT noted that "the lower target signals that [Beijing] is willing to tolerate slower near-term growth while it focuses on longer-term structural fixes." DRC •Congolese authorities reported that a landslide at DRC's Rubaya coltan mine killed at least 200 artisanal miners, including around 70 children. •The M23 - which controls Rubaya - disputed Kinshasa's official account, saying that it was government "bombings" - not a landslide - that caused the mine to collapse, and claiming that "simply about five" people died - not 200. •[Notably, the M23 didn't dispute that a landslide was the cause of a nearly-identical disaster in late January that killed roughly the same number as the government says died this time.]
Open source reportOff Leash update 2 March COMING UP THIS WEEK •China's National People's Congress - a rubber-stamp parliament - opens its annual meeting Thursday. Analysts expect it to set a slightly lower GDP growth than last year's target: perhaps 4.5% instead of 5.0%. •The Winter Paralympics start Friday in Milan and Cortina d'Ampezzo, Italy. •Colombia votes for its parliament Sunday, which is also International Women's Day and the beginning of Daylight Savings Time in the U.S. (but not in Europe, where clocks change Mar. 29). COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,140/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $66,223 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $13,344/ton •Ethereum: $1,951 •Gold: $5,392/toz •Lead: $1,962/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.01/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $72.21/barrel - Some analysts expect this to rise to $85-90 when markets open today because of Iran's naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following U.S. and Israeli strikes over the weekend. •Zinc: $3,317/ton IRAN •The U.S. and Israel bombed Iran on Saturday morning, targeting a daytime gathering of senior Iranian figures - including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei - in some of their opening strikes. •Iranian state media confirmed early rumors that Khamenei was killed in the strikes. Many Iranians cheered his death and the end of his 37-year theocratic reign; others - largely religious ultraconservatives - mourned his loss. •The regime announced 40 days of mourning and said the constitutionally-defined process of appointing his successor would begin immediately and could anoint the next Ayatollah within days. •Candidates include his son, Mojtaba; his loyal aide, Ali Larijani; and several hardline clerics. Whoever is picked will immediately have a target on their back. That said, all the top candidates probably already do: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said his military has "thousands more targets" in its sights. •The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) vowed to avenge Khamenei's death, but much of the IRGC's leadership - including its top commander - died with him. •The decapitated IRGC still retaliated by launching ballistic missiles at Israel and several countries in the region that host U.S. military bases. Most were easily intercepted, but some caused damage and a few caused casualties - including the deaths of three U.S. soldiers. •The ongoing exchange of fire has caused widespread flight cancellations, and both sides seem bent on further escalation. In particular, Iran's navy is reportedly carrying out the IRGC's threat to choke off shipping in the vital waterway, through which 31% of all seaborne crude oil passes. •In a social media post, Pres. Trump called on Iranians to finish the job: "When we are finished, take over your government." It's not clear whether the battered, unarmed, and disorganized opposition will heed his call to rise up, but leaving the hard part to them lets Trump avoid sending ground troops into what could become another Middle Eastern quagmire. LEBANON •Iran's strongest remaining proxy, Hezbollah, then joined Iran's side by lobbing missiles towards Israel from Lebanon. Israel promptly retaliated with a barrage of airstrikes on Hezbollah areas in Lebanon. •Israel's quick, decisive action against Hezbollah was embarrassing for the Lebanese government, which promised Israel it would rein in the militia as a condition of their Nov. 2024 ceasefire, but has made little progress doing so out of fears of a confrontation that the weak Lebanese army might lose. UKRAINE •Ukrainian officials said Russia had agreed to some facets of the post-war security guarantees the U.S. proposed. The two sides still need to resolve the other sticking point of land trades, and Moscow could still renege on its pinky promise on security guarantees. PAKISTAN AND AFGHANISTAN •Afghanistan's Taliban government said its military fired anti-aircraft missiles that successfully deterred Pakistani jets threatening Bagram Air Base. •Bagram holds significant symbolic importance for the Taliban: the captured U.S. base holds Afghanistan's largest runway and hosts annual military parades each year on the anniversary of the Taliban's return to power. •Its destruction would be a much bigger loss for the Taliban than the small ammunition depots Pakistan targeted in its first wave of cross-border strikes last week. VENEZUELA •Venezuela's opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado, announced in a social media post that she plans to return to her home country in the coming weeks. •Machado left Venezuela in December to attend the Nobel award ceremony in Oslo, where she collected her Nobel Peace Prize. •Before she left, Nicolas Maduro's government charged her with a litany of crimes and ominously warned that she wouldn't be allowed to return if she left. •Maduro's former vice president and successor, Interim President Delcy Rodriguez, may only be slightly more lenient on her: Rodriguez recently said Machado will have to "answer to Venezuela" for advocating for U.S. military intervention in Caracas.
Open source reportOff Leash update 6 Feb UKRAINE •Trilateral peace talks between Russia, Ukraine, and U.S. negotiators lasted just three hours yesterday - and not because they reached quick agreement. •The delegates reported no progress towards resolving two of the thorniest issues blocking a peace deal: the future of the Donbas region and post-war security guarantees for Ukraine. •Ukraine and Russia did, however, agree to another prisoner swap, and the U.S. and Russia agreed to restart talks between their militaries after a four-year lull. •Separately, Russia's deputy head of military intelligence, Lt. Gen. Vladimir Alexeyev, was shot several times in an assassination attempt in his apartment building in Moscow this morning. Alexeyev was hospitalized with serious injuries. •It's not clear who was behind the attack. Ukraine has claimed several similar targeted attacks on senior figures inside Russia, and it was probably also responsible for others it didn't publicly claim. NIGERIA •Jihadists killed over 170 people - mostly Muslims - in Nigeria's western Kwara State. •Pres. Bolo Tinubu deployed an army battalion to the region "to checkmate the barbaric terrorists and protect defenceless communities." Tinubu is under U.S. pressure to do more to combat Islamic terrorism in Nigeria so Pres. Trump doesn't feel compelled to intervene again with fresh airstrikes. •Tinubu's office said the Kwara gunmen sought revenge on villagers who had "rejected their obnoxious attempt at indoctrination." That's consistent with local reports that the attackers were Islamists who sought to preach in the villages but became enraged when villagers rejected their extremist ideology and refused their orders to adopt Sharia law. •Tinubu blamed the attack on Boko Haram, but he may be using the name of Nigeria's best-known jihadist group as a catch-all for unrelated Islamic terrorists. A local lawmaker said the attackers were part of the Lakurawa, an armed group linked to Islamic State. •Meanwhile, the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) said the last 166 hostages abducted in last month's attacks on churches in nearby Kaduna state had finally been freed. CAN didn't say whether ransoms were paid, but they likely were. Critics suggest paying ransoms incentivizes further kidnappings. SOUTH SUDAN •The South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF) announced that it had recaptured parts of Jonglei from the rival Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army in Opposition (SPLM/A-IO). •The SPLM/A-IO acknowledged it was withdrawing from Jonglei, but unconvincingly called the move a "deliberate and part of a broader operational strategy rather than a sign of defeat." The SPLM/A-IO also accused the SSPDF of genocide, rape, and other heinous atrocities in Jonglei. •The sudden shift raised fears of a reopened civil war pitting Pres. Kiir and the SSPDF against Kiir's First Vice President, Riek Machar (who has been in detention since last year), and the SPLM/A-IO.
Open source reportOff Leash update 17 Dec VENEZUELA •In a Truth Social post, Pres. Trump said he had designated Nicolas Maduro's government a foreign terrorist organization and announced a "A TOTAL AND COMPLETE BLOCKADE OF ALL SANCTIONED OIL TANKERS going into, and out of, Venezuela." •While that sounds severe, analysts point out that the emphasis on sanctioned tankers suggests this will be more of a redoubling of ongoing U.S. naval operations against regime-linked boats in the Caribbean than a true blockade. •It won't affect Chevron's legal exports of Venezuelan oil; nor will it threaten legal shipments of other goods to and from Venezuela. And with global oil markets well supplied and China - as the main buyer of Venezuelan oil - unlikely to enthusiastically enforce sanctions, it likely won't have a lasting effect on oil prices either. •The new terrorist designation will, however, facilitate more seizures of sanctioned oil tankers. The U.S. is monitoring around 18 fully-loaded, sanctioned tankers in Venezuelan waters, and Axios reported that it plans to seize any that enter international waters. •The designation could also help build a case for the land strikes and direct military action Trump has repeatedly threatened against Venezuela. •The new measures will also further hobble Venezuela's ailing economy. Since oil is Venezuela's main source of export earnings, the blockade is likely to exacerbate already-high inflation and lead to a fresh surge in outbound migration. UKRAINE •U.S. and European officials wrapped up two days of meetings on Ukraine in Berlin after making some minor progress on possible ceasefire terms. •One new aspect of the tabled peace proposal would see U.S. intelligence and European troops reinforce Ukraine's post-war security and help deter a repeat Russian invasion in the future. Russia will certainly reject that idea; it didn't even bother to respond to the far more favorable plan the U.S. initially proposed. SAHEL •In an interview with pro-Kremlin media outlet TASS, Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister - Sergey Vershinin - accused the West of "waging a large-scale campaign to destabilize the situation" in the junta-run Sahel states of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. •That's an odd accusation from an official representing the country that gained the most from the destabilizing coups that overthrew elected governments in all three Sahel countries. While there's no direct evidence that Russia was involved an any of the putschs, it was quick to capitalize on the opportunity to bolster each junta with no-strings-attached security support in exchange for mineral access. CRITICAL MINERALS •The European Union (EU) outlined a plan to lower its ambitions for replacing combustion engine vehicles with greener models - in part to reduce the costly compliance burden that lofty green targets have forced on struggling European automakers. •Instead of requiring EU-made vehicles to eliminate 100% of their carbon emissions by 2035, the new target would aim for a 90% reduction in emissions. That means carmakers could still produce hybrids and internal combustion engine cars after 2035 - though fewer of them than they're making now. •If adopted, the plan would reduce EU carmakers' demand for battery minerals like cobalt and rare earths. It's seen as a particularly welcome reprieve for the EU's luxury carmakers like Porsche, Mercedes-Benz, and BMW, who have struggled more with the green transition than their mass-market counterparts.
Open source reportOff Leash update 7 Nov UKRAINE •After 21 months of grueling battle, Russia appears to be on the verge of capturing the Donbas city of Pokrovsk - though Ukraine insists its forces are still resisting and are not cut off yet. •The fall of Pokrovsk would be Russia's biggest battlefield gain since seizing Bakhmut over two years ago, and it would give Russian forces a base for further advances in the Donbas. •More importantly, it would give Pres. Putin a minor win to bolster his case to Pres. Trump that Russian victory is inevitable - and thus that sending U.S. weapons to Ukraine is folly. CENTRAL ASIA •Pres. Trump hosted leaders of the C5+1 bloc (comprising 5 "Stans" - Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan - and the U.S.) for a summit focused on strengthening partnerships on critical minerals and energy yesterday. •The C5 Stans are rich in uranium, copper, gold, and rare earths; but all maintain strong (but complicated) ties with Moscow as a legacy of the Soviet era. •Ahead of the White House meeting, Kazakhstan announced that it plans to join the Abraham Accords - a series of agreements normalizing diplomatic relations between Israel and its countersignatories. •Kazakhstan already has full diplomatic relations and strong economic ties with Israel, so it has nothing left to gain from signing the Abraham Accords. Rather, its ceremonial inclusion may be a way to reinvigorate momentum for the deprioritized agreements. RUSSIA •After years of warnings that NATO had fallen far behind Russia on ammunition manufacturing, the alliance's Secretary-General, Mark Rutte, announced that NATO members are now collectively producing as many units per month as Russia is. •That may not sound like a big achievement for a bloc with a combined GDP 25 times Russia's, but it took massive investment in new and expanded production lines to overcome the gaping lead Russia had: just five months ago, Russia was making four times as much ammunition as NATO's 32 members. LIBYA •Libya's National Oil Corporation (NOC) announced a significant new onshore oil discovery in well H1-NC4 of the Ghadames Basin southwest of Tripoli. •NOC's new discovery follows OMV's find in the Sirte Basin last week, and both are signs of renewed confidence in investing in Libya's rich oil and gas potential. •Other companies are keen to join the rush, too: NOC head Masoud Suleiman recently reported that 40 firms expressed interest in the 22 oil exploration blocks being offered in the latest bidding round - which was Libya's first in over 17 years.
Open source reportOff Leash update 4 Nov 2025 U.S. •U.S. off-year elections are today. Vote! GAZA •Yesterday, the U.S. circulated a draft UN Security Council resolution proposing an International Security Force (ISF) to run post-war Gaza for two years. •The draft emphasizes that the ISF would be an "enforcement force and not a peacekeeping force," and would have a mandate to disarm terror groups. •That's likely to be a turnoff for some of the Arab and Muslim leaders - like Jordan's King Abdullah - who have said they won't contribute troops to a force tasked with enforcing peace rather than merely keeping it. [Peace enforcement generally uses coercive measures like military force to impose peace - an idea that King Abdullah says "nobody will want to touch" in Gaza.] VENEZUELA •The Washington Post reported that Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro has been begging for help from Russia, China, and Iran to upgrade its arsenal, defenses, and air fleet in light of the ongoing buildup of U.S. forces in the region, which Maduro (rightly) perceives as a threat to his regime. •Russia has sent Maduro at least two cargo planes of kit in recent weeks, but some analysts think that's about all the support that Moscow will be able to offer while its focus and resources are stretched in Ukraine. A spokesman for Russia's Foreign Ministry merely acknowledged that her ministry was "in contact with" a pleading Maduro regime. •Iran has sent Maduro some drones; it's not clear whether or how China has replied to his requests. SUDAN •Satellite photos appeared to corroborate survivors' accounts that Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are carrying out systematic massacres of civilian men in El Fasher, which the RSF finally captured from the army last week. •Separately, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) - the world's leading authority on food crises - deemed El Fasher and a second Sudanese city, Kordofan's Kadugli, to be facing famine after monthslong RSF sieges. CHINA •The Economist analyzed 14,000 documented examples of Xi Jinping's speeches and writings since 2013 to spot some noteworthy trends. •Xi's use of bold language - "strong country," "great enterprise," "high quality," etc. - has risen dramatically, while he's reduced his use of fluffier and feelier words like "hope," "care," and "opinions." Read more here: https://t.co/VailJ6WtMG. TANZANIA •Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan was sworn in to a new term as nationwide protests against her sham re-election continued. •One might think that a leader popular enough to claim 98% of the vote with a record turnout of 87% (per official stats) would relish celebrating her victory as her predecessors celebrated theirs: with a huge public inauguration bash at Dar es Salaam's largest stadium. •Instead, Samia took her oath of office in a private (but televised) event at a military venue, citing security concerns - which she blamed on "foreigners." •Reports of empty polling stations on election day cast doubt on the official turnout figures, and Samia didn't need to plump turnout up anyway: her victory was already ensured when her only two serious rivals were banned from running against her. GUINEA •Guinea's junta leader, Mamady Doumbouya, formally filed to contest the December 28 presidential election, reversing a pledge he made upon seizing power in 2021 to hand authority over to an elected government and not run for election himself. •Doumbouya apparently changed his mind after a convenient September referendum lifted a constitutional prohibition on military leaders contesting elections and introduced new restrictions that bar his two closest rivals from running. •Doumbouya's supporters - who don't seem to understand how democracy works - cheered him on as he filed his campaign papers: "Mamady champion, Mamady president, Mamady already elected!"
Open source reportOff Leash update 29 Sept COMING UP THIS WEEK •The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) - which waived tariffs for U.S. imports from developing African countries - expires tomorrow. AGOA was underutilized but benefitted a few African manufacturing industries that blossomed without tariffs. •China's Golden Week public holiday starts Wednesday, which is also the day Russia assumes the rotating presidency of the UN Security Council for a month. •U.S. lawmakers are frantically negotiating a new funding plan and must agree on one by Wednesday to avoid a government shutdown. The Economist says both Republicans and Democrats "are bullish, betting that the public will blame the other party for a shutdown." •The inaugural edition of African Energy Week (AEW) takes place in Cape Town from Tues to Friday. AEW's organizers want the new event to inspire new innovations in Energy - in contrast to the long-established annual African Mining Indaba, which touches on novel ideas but keeps a higher-level focus on large deals and legacy assets. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,656/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $112,518 •Cobalt: $35,000/ton •Copper: $10,182/ton •Ethereum: $4,148 •Gold: $3,825/toz - yet another all-time high on expectations of further U.S. rate cuts and rising demand for (perceived) safe-haven assets amidst geopolitical uncertainty •Lead: $2,003/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.20/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $63.69/barrel •Zinc: $2,889/ton MOLDOVA •Despite what Pres. Sandu called "massive Russian interference" to sway the vote, Moldova's pro-European Action and Solidarity party looks likely to win yesterday's parliamentary elections, with more than twice as many votes as the pro-Russian Patriotic Electoral Bloc and 99.9% of votes counted. •Full results are due out tomorrow. Some observers have suggested that Russia may try to provoke protests to overturn the outcome. RUSSIA •Ukraine's military spy agency released its written assessment of Russia's motives behind its recent drone incursions into Polish airspace: "Such hybrid operations likely aim to increase pressure on Ukraine's Western partners, potentially leading to: Reduced support for Ukraine, especially military aid." •While this report covered only the Polish incidents, Russia has seemingly been aerially annoying other NATO countries, too: Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands, Norway, and Romania have all reported suspected Russian drone activity in recent weeks, and Estonia observed the even more serious incursion of three Russian MiGs on Sep. 19. •NATO leaders don't agree on how to respond to Russia's incursions, and some are even hesitant to conclude Russia is intentionally violating NATO airspace. •That's precisely the point of this type of "hybrid warfare:" to keep tactics below the threshold of armed conflict that would guarantee a forceful response, while sowing confusion and debate to distract adversaries from mounting a unified response to concurrent campaigns of overt violence. •Ukraine's Pres. Zelensky claims Russia is launching its nuisance drones from the shadow fleet of oil tankers that it uses to evade sanctions. Zelensky called for new sanctions on shadow fleet tankers in response. 1/2
Open source reportOff leash update 17 sept UKRAINE •Poland floated the idea of making the skies over Ukraine a no-fly zone. •It's an idea first raised by Pres. Zelensky early in the war: Zelensky reasoned that if the skies over his country were closed to air traffic, then he could justifiably ask NATO allies to shoot down Russian intruders who defied the ban. •Back then, NATO leaders rejected the idea out of fear of being drawn into a military conflict with Russia. Now, Poland's foreign minister, for one, thinks that "If Ukraine were to ask us” to shoot down drones over its territory, it will be advantageous for us." •The U.S. will likely remain opposed to the idea of a no-fly zone over Ukraine for the same reasons as before. RUSSIA •A new study by war crimes investigators at Yale University's Humanitarian Research Lab found that Russia's quiet forced re-education (read: indoctrination) programs for Ukrainian children from occupied territories are much larger than initially understood. •The study documented at least 210 Russian sites holding Ukrainian children (vs. around half that number in initial estimates). Some of those sites are military training schools; others are education camps with a severe pro-Russian nationalist slant. •The Geneva Convention prohibits military recruitment in occupied territories, but Russia argues that the prohibition doesn't apply here because it has annexed - not merely occupied - the Ukrainian areas in question. CHINA •Chinese and Philippine boats had another confrontation at sea near the disputed Scarborough Shoal yesterday. •Last week, China approved plans to turn the waters around the shoal into a national nature reserve to preserve its (disputed) right to the area, which lies well within the Philippines' Exclusive Economic Zone (as well as China's nine-dash line). This was the first run-in since those plans were approved. •The Philippines accused China of "aggressive" actions against its boats that were resupplying fishermen; China blamed the Philippines for the spat, which caused a collision between two boats. AFGHANISTAN •Afghanistan's Taliban government severed fiber-optic internet service to Balkh province "for the prevention of vices." Balkh residents can still get their vices on mobile internet, which remains up. •The Taliban's critics point out that cutting off home internet will disporportionately affect women and girls - many of whom started reading and studying online at home after the Taliban closed their schools and banned them from working. SOUTH SUDAN •Following two years of independent investigations, the UN Commission on Human Rights issued its verdict on South Sudan's festering political feud between Pres. Kiir and his First Vice President, Riek Machar. •The UN commission found both sides at fault for "the plundering of a nation," and blamed the leadership's infighting and corruption for "driving hunger, collapsing health systems, and causing preventable deaths, as well as fuelling deadly armed conflict over resources." •The commission's report cited one particularly damning example: South Sudan's government has collected $25.2 billion in oil revenues since 2011, yet has spent just a rounding error of that on essential services. As a result, "three-quarters of child deaths are preventable — yet funds go to patronage and private pockets, not medicine or clean water and sanitation."
Open source reportOff Leash update 15 September COMING UP THIS WEEK •Arab foreign ministers are holding an emergency summit today to discuss a united response to Israel's strike on Hamas leaders in Doha last week. Some analysts worry that the unilateral strike is leading U.S. allies in the region - including Qatar - to question what they gain from strong ties with a U.S. that either can't or won't intervene on their behalf to prevent strikes like this. •Pres. Trump will make an unprecedented second presidential visit to the UK this week, starting tomorrow. •Wednesday is the extended deadline for Bytedance to sell TikTok to a non-Chinese owner - but that deadline has already been delayed three times, and - given the lack of publicly-announced progress towards an acquisition deal - looks likely to be extended again. •The U.S. Federal Reserve will announce its decision on interest rates Wednesday. Pres. Trump predicted that the Fed will oblige his request for a "big cut" in rates. •The 19th annual Oktoberfest starts Saturday in Munich. •On Sunday, Guinea will vote in a referendum on its junta's new draft constitution. More on that below. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,690/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $115,036 •Cobalt: $33,335/ton •Copper: $10,068/ton •Ethereum: $4,531 •Gold: $3,637/toz •Lead: $2,018/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.95/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $62.89/barrel •Zinc: $2,957/ton RUSSIA •Romania said Russian drones invaded its airspace, marking the second time in under a week that a NATO member has reported a Russian drone incursion. •Analysts call the use of such gradual offenses to probe an adversary's response "salami slicing:" each slice advances Russia's geopolitical goals slightly, without causing enough of a stir to provoke meaningful countermeasures. NEPAL •Nepal's "Gen Z" protesters got their wish and saw their pick to lead the country's interim government, former chief justice Sushila Karki, sworn in as interim prime minister. •Karki said she'd been reluctant to accept the mantle of becoming Nepal's first female leader, and pledged to step down in six months after organizing fresh elections. GUINEA •Guinea's junta will put its new draft constitution to a referendum on Sunday. •The referendum was supposed to be a gauge of popular sentiment on ending the junta's military rule, but it instead looks like a way to legitimize its power grab: the draft proposal seems to open the door to keeping junta leader Mamady Doumbouya in power. •It won't be a fair vote, either: the junta banned the country's three main political parties - including deposed Pres. Conde's Rally of the Guinean People - from participating, saying the "parties have not fulfilled the obligations required of them." Their main offense seems to be demonstrating against the junta's illegal power grab. PALESTINIAN STATEHOOD •The UN General Assembly overwhelmingly approved a declaration condemning both Hamas's Oct. 7 attacks and Israel's subsequent war in Gaza, and supporting "tangible, timebound, and irreversible steps" towards a two-state solution to the long-running conflict. •The U.S. and Israel boycotted the resolution and criticized it as a "publicity stunt." SAHEL •Niger and Chad reported two apparently isolated recent jihadist attacks on their soldiers. •In the first, Islamic State (IS)-linked militants ambushed Nigerien soldiers after laying traps for them in Tillabéri, killing at least 14 and up to 27. Those coordinated incidents apparently took place last Wednesday - which was the same day Human Rights Watch issued a report warning of an escalation in IS attacks in the volatile region. •Then, Chad said "Boko Haram elements" killed 40 of its soldiers in an attack on their base in the Lac region bordering Nigeria early today. The attackers absconded with heavy weapons, which they'll likely use in future attacks.
Open source reportOff Leash update 21 Aug GAZA •The Israeli military began what a spokesman called "the next phase of the war" in Gaza and called up 60,000 reservists for the effort. Its troops have reached the edges of Gaza City and are preparing to encircle it and take control. •Meanwhile, a planning committee issued final approval for a contentious 3,400-unit West Bank settlement project called East One, or E1 for short. E1 was first proposed in 1995, but its approval was long delayed until now - in part over widespread concerns that E1's central location will disrupt the contiguity of the Palestinian-populated West Bank. •To Israeli hardliners like finance minister Bezalel Smotrich, that's exactly the point: after yesterday's approval, Smotrich gloated that the idea of a Palestinian state "is being erased from the table." Smotrich has been a driving force behind the recent acceleration in settlement approvals, and critics say Prime Minister Netanyahu has given Smotrich unprecedented - and unwarranted - authority over settlement plans because he needs Smotrich's party's support to stay in power. •Both moves - in Gaza and the West Bank - suggest Netanyahu isn't seriously considering the temporary ceasefire proposal Hamas agreed to this week. UKRAINE •Russia's Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, said that Russia would insist on being party to any future security guarantees for Ukraine, including those the U.S. is considering that Pres. Trump suggested could be "NATO-like." I suppose that means that if Russia attacks Ukraine post-peace, it will be obliged to retaliate on Ukraine's behalf against...itself? •Lavrov's bizarre comment seems like yet another example that Russia isn't ready to talk peace. •Meanwhile on the battlefield, Russian troops continue to inch forward using inefficient but sneaky tactics like sending small groups of footsoldiers across to regroup behind Ukrainian lines and attack. •Russia's broader goal appears to be to capture as much ground as possible so it can start peace talks from a better negotiating position - if its valiant stalling efforts fail and it's forced to start talks. CHINA •China's Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, returned from a two-day state visit to India with several trade and diplomatic agreements to rebuild and strengthen ties between the two Asian giants. Ties gradually frayed over their superpower rivalry, but cleaved in 2020 over a border dispute. •China and India now plan to reopen their shared (and still disputed) border in three places and facilitate visa approvals to improve trade flows. They'll also resume direct flights, which had been suspended since pandemic lockdowns. •Some analysts see the diplomatic rekindling as a result of U.S. trade pressure on India that has encouraged India to turn to other trade and geopolitical allies instead. •Separately, Chinese leader Xi Jinping paid a rare and unannounced visit to the Tibetan capital of Lhasa yesterday. Xi - who hadn't visited Lhasa since 2021 - said Beijing would "guide Tibetan Buddhism to adapt to socialist society," which probably means it will continue to impose the Communist Party's devoutly atheist values on resolutely spiritual Tibetan Buddhists in the region. AFGHANISTAN •After Chinese Foreign Minister Wang's visit to India, Wang flew to Kabul to offer Afghanistan's Taliban government new Chinese investment - particularly in infrastructure and mining (especially of lithium, iron, and copper) - and to invite Afghanistan to formally join the Belt and Road Initiative. •China's 176 construction contracts and investment pledges to Belt and Road members in the first half of 2025 totaled $124 billion. That's already more than the $122 billion that China pledged to members in all of 2024. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 30 July UKRAINE •The Kremlin said it "took note" of Pres. Trump's threat to impose new sanctions and penalties if a ceasefire is not agreed with Ukraine by roughly Aug. 7-9. •In lieu of a direct response to Trump's ultimatum, Russia launched new missile strikes on Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro, killing at least 22. •Even Trump acknowledged that his tariff threat "may or may not" work, since Pres. Putin "wants to, obviously, probably keep the war going." RUSSIA •Separately, a massive 8.8-magnitude earthquake - perhaps the sixth-largest ever recorded - struck off the coast of eastern Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula early this morning, triggering a tsunami in the Pacific Ocean and warnings and alerts spanning the entire West Coast of the U.S. PALESTINIAN STATEHOOD •After much prodding from British citizens and MPs appalled by images of starving children in Gaza, Prime Minister Starmer announced that the UK will follow France's lead and recognize a Palestinian state in September unless Israel meets several weighty conditions before then. •In order to avoid the UK recognizing Palestinian statehood in September, Israel must first agree to a ceasefire in Gaza. It must also pledge not to annex the occupied West Bank, and it must commit to a credible process that will eventually grant Palestinian statehood anyway. •Prime Minister Netanyahu's furious reaction declaring that Starmer's ultimatum "rewards Hamas's monstrous terrorism" suggests Israel is highly unlikely to meet any of Starmer's conditions by September. TRADE •The EU's largest economies are less enthusiastic than European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was about the trade deal von der Leyen recently signed with Pres. Trump on behalf of the bloc. •Germany's Chancellor Merz said the deal would "substantially damage" the German economy, and France's Prime Minister Bayrou called its signing a "dark day" for the EU. •Both Merz and Bayrou likely lament the 15% tariff the deal locks in for most goods the EU exports to the U.S. However, pragmatists observe that the alternative was not a continuation of today's lower tariff rates but rather levies far above 15% and a possible trade war. CHINA •U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng talked trade for ten hours over the course of Monday and Tuesday, but only agreed to continue discussions and perhaps - if Pres. Trump approves it - extend the current bilateral tariff pause another 90 days from its expiration date in mid-August. INDIA AND PAKISTAN •India said its forces had finally - over 100 days later - killed three of the terrorists involved the April attack in Kashmir that sparked a brief skirmish with Pakistan. Prime Minister Modi's government has faced criticism for taking so long to identify and pursue the attackers.
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 July AZERBAIJAN •Armenia's Prime Minister Pashinyan and Azerbaijan's Pres. Aliyev are meeting in the UAE today to finalize a peace deal ending almost 40 years of border wars. •Their detente is seen as a sign of Russia's waning influence in the South Caucasus: Moscow previously made itself indispensable in the region by alternately fueling and mediating border conflicts between Armenia and Azerbaijan. •With those conflicts now largely resolved (despite sporadic ceasefire violations), Russia can no longer gain leverage by mediating them. KURDISTAN •The imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), Abdullah Öcalan, released a video declaring the PKK's armed insurgency against the Turkish state over, and calling on his loyal supporters to join his "voluntary transition from the phase of armed struggle to the phase of democratic politics and law." •That's the same message Öcalan shared in a letter from jail in February, after which the PKK began the process of disbanding. That process continues this Friday, when some PKK fighters in Iraqi Kurdistan will hold a symbolic ceremony to destroy their weapons. •The truce still seems fragile, as Turkey hasn't formally agreed to any of the concessions Öcalan and the PKK seek, which include expanded autonomy for Kurds in Turkey. GAZA •Hamas said it agreed to release 10 hostages as a gesture of goodwill amidst ongoing ceasefire talks with Israel. However, its negotiators also complained that truce talks were "tough" because of Israel's "intransigence." KENYA •Kenya's Pres. Ruto is setting a great example for how *not* to handle peaceful protests or improve trust in government. •Many Kenyans have lost faith in their government and turned out to protest on Monday in commemoration of Saba Saba, the day in 1990 when Kenyans rejected Daniel arap Moi's autocratic rule and embraced multiparty democracy. •Ruto reportedly sent police to infiltrate and agitate Monday's protests, and openly admits that he ordered police to shoot protesters in the legs ("so they break and they can go to hospital on their way to court.") TRADE •The Trump administration sent new letters to at least seven more countries warning them of the tariffs they face starting Aug. 1 if they don't seal bilateral trade deals with the U.S. before then. •Trump also threatened Brazil with tariffs of up to 50% starting Aug. 1 for subjecting ex-Pres. Jair Bolsonaro - a Trump ally - to a "witch hunt" by trying him for allegedly attempting to stage a coup to stay in power. Brazil's current president, Lula, vowed to reciprocate.
Open source reportOff Leash update 7 July COMING UP THIS WEEK •Senior officials from BRICS countries - Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and the six non-founding countries admitted to the club later but excluded from its acronym - met in Brazil today and yesterday. Six leaders - including Presidents Xi and Putin - had more important things to do and sent representatives in their stead. •Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is visiting the White House today, marking his third visit since January. Pres. Trump expressed hope that his meeting with Netanyahu could help finalize a Gaza ceasefire deal in the next week. •Trump is also meeting the leaders of five African countries - Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mauritania, and Senegal - this week. Trade will be on the agenda: all five have significant untapped deposits of various natural resources but trade little with the U.S. •Wednesday is the postponed deadline for Pres. Trump's new tariffs to go into effect. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent has hinted that the deadline could be extended again to allow more time to secure bilateral trade deals. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,590/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $108,666 •Cobalt: $33,335/ton •Copper: $9,865/ton •Ethereum: $2,563 •Gold: $3,303/toz •Lead: $2,059/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.30/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $66.94/barrel •Zinc: $2,724/ton GAZA •Israel and Hamas both remained noncommittal but cautiously optimistic about the Egyptian- and Qatari-mediated (and U.S.-backed) ceasefire proposal currently on the table. •The terms of that proposal are still hazy, but early reports suggest it would provide for a 60-day ceasefire, during which Hamas would release 10 living hostages and 18 bodies in three separate batches (and Israel would release Palestinian prisoners) •Israel and Hamas would then start "proximity talks" - negotiations to hammer out the details - "as soon as possible," according to an Israeli diplomat. AFGHANISTAN •Russia became the first country to officially recognize Afghanistan's Taliban government, nearly four years after it regained control of the country. •Russia's foreign ministry said it looked forward to "productive bilateral cooperation between our countries in various fields" - which probably do not include strengthening democratic or human rights protections. VENEZUELA •Venezuela inaugurated the first Kalashnikov ammunition plant in the Americas last week. •Though the plant opened a day before Venezuela's independence day (July 5), it was not exactly an independent endeavor: it was built by the Kremlin's weapons export agency, Rosoboronexport, and will be operated by Russia's state-owned Rostec. IRAN •Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, appeared in public for the first time since the 12-day war with Israel to celebrate the Shia holiday of Ashura. •Khamenei hid out in a bunker during the war as Pres. Trump mused about assassinating him. There was little doubt that he had survived, but his supporters were nonetheless glad to see him alive and well. •Separately, the NYT wrote that Iran had hoped to use this week's BRICS summit to rally the group to condemn the U.S. strikes on its nuclear facilities at the end of the brief war, but failed to gain much traction. Russia, of course, leapt at the chance to criticize the U.S. for "unprovoked act of aggression," but China merely called for "restraint," and Brazil stayed out of it. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 30 June COMING UP THIS WEEK •The Wimbledon Championships tennis tournament starts today and lasts two weeks. •Bulgaria will adopt the Euro starting tomorrow, becoming the 21st member of the Eurozone. •Canada Day is tomorrow, July 1, and the U.S. celebrates its 249th birthday - as well as the annual Nathan's International Hot Dog Eating Contest - on Friday, July 4. •The 112th Tour de France cycling race starts Saturday. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,595/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $101,590 •Cobalt: $33,335/ton •Copper: $9,878/ton •Ethereum: $2,463 •Gold: $3,286/toz •Lead: $2,044/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.53/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $65.25/barrel •Zinc: $2,779/ton UKRAINE •Russia hit Ukraine with yet another largest aerial barrage yet, launching 537 drones and missiles overnight. As often, this round of strikes targeted Ukrainian infrastructure. •One Ukrainian F-16 crashed while defending against the Russian attack, killing the pilot. Ukraine has now lost three of its unknown number of F-16s. •Separately, Russian state media said Russian forces captured a village in Dnipropetrovsk. It would be Russia's first foothold in the eastern Ukrainian region, and could be part of Pres. Putin's theat to expand territorial gains in Ukraine in the absence of a peace deal (though some analysts suggest thinly-spread Russian forces will struggle to keep control of new territory). •Meanwhile, Putin claimed Friday that he's ready to talk peace. Putin has made similar statements before, only to backtrack when the idea moves forward and then shrug off blame for the resulting impasse. •Putin's press corps is already starting to suggest that Ukraine and the U.S. are responsible for the latest delays: Ukraine for not acceding to Moscow's territorial gains and Putin's assertion that "all of Ukraine is ours," and the U.S. for failing to push the warring parties towards a deal. GAZA •The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation - the new Israel-backed group distributing aid in Gaza - said it had credible information that Hamas has placed bounties on its aid workers. That adds to concerns that Hamas is seeking to undermine alternative aid delivery systems that it can't siphon from. CHINA •The latest Chinese Communist Party (CCP) census confirmed that the CCP has surpassed 100 million members. •Though the ruling party continues to grow - thanks in part to the rich job prospects its members enjoy - its growth slowed for the third straight year in 2024 as officials continued their efforts to expel slackers and crooks. GUINEA •Guinea's junta-run parliament proposed that the president's term be extended from five to seven years, and that presidents be allowed to hold office for two terms, or a total of 14 years. •That's an interesting shift for a junta that ousted the civilian government before it (in part) over overthrown president Conde's attempt to extend his term to five years and run for a third term, for a total of 13 years in power. TRADE •Pres. Trump walked away from trade talks with Canada on Friday, citing gripes with an "egregious" new tax Canada planned to impose on digital services that would disproportionately affect U.S. tech companies. Canada quickly gave in and ditched the new tax; it's not clear whether Trump will now return to talks.
Open source reportOff Leash update 25 June IRAN •Early yesterday, Iran and Israel agreed to a U.S.-proposed ceasefire that seems to be holding - despite some final fire from both sides in the first hours of the truce. •Both sides claimed victory, and - in the sense of avoiding expanded or prolonged conflict - they were indeed both winners. •Their truce was also a win for nuclear diplomacy: shortly after it took effect, Iran's Pres. Pezeshkian told his Emirati counterpart that Iran is ready to return to nuclear negotiations with the U.S. [However, Pezeshkian reiterated Iran's insistence on continuing some nuclear enrichment programs, which means the biggest impasse that stalled prior rounds of talks remains firmly in place.] •Prior to - and independent of - the Iran-Israel ceasefire, Iran symbolically retaliated against U.S. strikes on its nuclear sites by firing a few missiles at the largest U.S. military base in the Middle East, Qatar's Al Udeid Air Base. •Iran's retaliatory strikes were carefully calculated to avoid casualties or serious damage to Al Udeid, and Iran gave Qatar advance warning and apologized afterwards - all signs that Tehran seeks de-escalation. UKRAINE •Russia fired ballistic missiles at Dnipro yesterday, killing 17 and causing what Dnipro's mayor called "an unprecedented amount of destruction that the city has not seen in the entire time of [Russia’s] full-scale war." •In the wake of the Dnipro strikes, Pres. Zelensky repeated his concern that Russian ballistic missiles rely on parts imported from other countries - "unfortunately, sometimes even from Europe or NATO countries" - and called on weapons-makers to stop selling to Russia. DEFENSE SPENDING •NATO leaders agreed to raise defense spending to 5% of each country's GDP - including 3.5% of GDP on "hard" defense like weapons and an additional 1.5% on defense infrastructure - by 2025. That will please Pres. Trump, who has long been critical of NATO and has often called on its members to contribute their fair share towards the alliance's collective security.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 3 May 2025 CHINA •China's commerce ministry said it's "evaluating" U.S. proposals to start trade talks, but the ministry's statement sounded cool on the idea: it warned that if the U.S. "wants to talk, it should show its sincerity and be prepared to correct its wrong practices” by abandoning “unilateral tariffs." •Separately, Apple estimated that new U.S. tariffs on China will increase its costs by $900 million in the second quarter alone. Amazon also warned this week that "tariff and trade policies" - among other pre-existing factors - make its future results "inherently unpredictable." IRAN •The U.S. slapped fresh sanctions on Iran's oil trade, and U.S. SecDef Hegseth separately posted a clear "Message to IRAN" on X: "We see your LETHAL support to The Houthis. We know exactly what you are doing, You know very well what the U.S. Military is capable of — and you were warned. You will pay the CONSEQUENCE at the time and place of our choosing." •Iran was relatively restrained in its response: its Foreign Ministry criticized the U.S. for "contradictory behavior and provocative statements" but refrained from making harsher comments that could derail ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear talks. •Most accounts suggest both sides are still optimistic about talks and broadly interested in seeing them advance to the harder, technical phase of negotiations. •However, Oman, which is mediating between the U.S. and Iran, said the fourth round of meetings will be postponed from tomorrow to an unspecified later date "for logistical reasons." Iran seems to want the U.S. to repeal its latest sanctions before talks resume, but my guess is that it wants to avoid further escalation and won't make new sanctions a sticking point. •Pres. Trump then threatened to impose secondary sanctions on any country that continues to buy oil from Iran. China is by far the largest importer of Iranian oil and would be affected most under secondary sanctions (although history suggests it would find ways to evade sanctions by skirting them or switching suppliers...Venezuela, for one, is lobbying Beijing to buy more of its crude as Chevron production winds down). RUSSIA and NORTH KOREA •Russia and North Korea held simultaneous ceremonies to mark the start of construction on the first road bridge between them (a rail bridge already links the two countries at the same spot). •The new project is a further sign of strengthening ties between the two outcast states. Their leaders have also become more overt about celebrating North Korea's support for Russia against Ukraine in recent weeks. AFGHANISTAN •A former Russian ambassador to Afghanistan said that Russia will help the Taliban government fight their "common enemy" of Islamic State-Khorasan. He was vague about what Russian support would entail, saying only that Russia "will provide our best assistance to the authorities of [Afghanistan] through specialised structures." •No country has formally recognized the Taliban government, but Russia seems to be moving in that direction: last month it removed the Taliban from its list of terrorist organizations, to which it was added in 2003. DRC •DRC and Rwanda expect to submit a draft ceasefire agreement for eastern DRC today. Their temporary truce continues to hold better than their short-lived prior attempts at peace. Happy Birthday Dad, (Edgar D. Prince) RIP. We miss you every day.
Open source reportOff Leash update 30 April 2025 INDIA AND PAKISTAN •Pakistan's Information Minister, Attaullah Tarar, claimed to have "credible intelligence" that India is planning a military strike on Pakistan in the next 24-36 hours (from ~10 pm local time last night) in retaliation for what Tarar called India's "baseless and concocted allegations" that Pakistan supported the separatist militants who attacked a civilian train in Pahalgam, Kashmir last week. [Pakistan vehemently denies funding or encouraging militants in Kashmir.] •Tarar's claim is consistent with other media reports that India's Prime Minister Modi has been lobbying world leaders by phone and diplomats in person to make the case for striking Pakistan, and a targeted strike could come soon. •India carried out similar targeted strikes on Pakistani militants after deadly attacks on India in 2016 and 2019. Both previous Indian retaliatory strikes were limited in scope to precisely target "militant launch pads" and training camps connected to the preceding terrorist attacks. •Any imminent Indian military strike would likely follow the same pattern and be limited to targeting the safe havens and arsenals used by militants responsible for the Pahalgam attacks. Neither India nor Pakistan wants a broader war with its nuclear-armed archrival right now. VENEZUELA •Human Rights Watch (HRW) released a damning 104-page report yesterday condemning Pres. Maduro's crackdown on the opposition after he stole the July 2024 election. •The report's title offers a preview of its findings: "Punished for Seeking Change: Killings, Enforced Disappearances, and Arbitrary Detention Following Venezuela’s 2024 Election." •Inside the report, HRW cited credible reports that at least 25 protesters were killed in the immediate aftermath of the election, and over 2,000 people were detained for demonstrating or supporting the opposition. Those are both probably drastic underestimates of the true totals. UKRAINE •Pres. Zelensky said that Ukraine has agreed - at U.S. insistence - to an immediate and unconditional 30-day ceasefire, but complained that Russia has yet to commit to it - and instead launched over 100 drone attacks on Ukraine overnight. NORTH KOREA •South Korean intelligence reported that around 600 North Koreans have been killed fighting against Ukraine in Kursk. •Earlier South Korean reports estimated 4,700 total North Korean casualties (killed or injured) in Kursk, so a combination of the two figures suggests 4,100 of the casualties were injured and 600 were killed in action. RUSSIA •France's cybersecurity agency accused Russia's military intelligence organization, GRU, of staging almost 10 years of cyberattacks against French defense and intelligence targets. France's Foreign Ministry pounced on the accusation and said Russia should be barred from the UN Security Council for such "destabilizing activities." •Pres. Macron has been explicit about his desire to pressure Pres. Putin into agreeing to a ceasefire in Ukraine, and these new charges are probably part of Macron's pressure campaign.
Open source reportOff Leash update 14 April 2025 COMING UP THIS WEEK •The 2025 World Expo opened yesterday in Osaka, Japan. •Pres. Trump hosts El Salvador's Pres. Bukele at the White House today and Italy's Prime Minister Meloni on Thursday. •U.S. markets are closed on Friday for Good Friday, and Easter is this Sunday. •Saturday is the 250th anniversary of the start of the American Revolution. COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,397/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $28,950/ton •Cobalt: $33,700/ton •Copper: $9,155/ton •Gold: $3,223/toz •Lead: $1,914/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.47/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $62.03/barrel •Zinc: $2,652/ton IRAN •The U.S. and Iran held their first bilateral talks since 2018 on Saturday in Oman. Both sides seemed pleased with how it went, so they'll continue with a second round of talks starting Saturday in Rome. •Some (including me) had worried that the U.S. might make uncompromising demands - such as a complete dismantling of Iran's nuclear programs - in this first session, leading Iran to walk away from talks. •That didn't happen. Instead, the U.S. goal for this first session seems to have been to shift from the indirect format Iran wanted to a direct exchange. The U.S. achieved that goal: U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi reportedly met directly for 45 minutes at the end of a day of indirect talks. •Israeli officials remain concerned that the U.S. is being too soft on Iran. SAUDI ARABIA •The Trump administration also revived talks with Iran's regional arch-rival, Saudi Arabia, over the weekend. The U.S. and Saudi are considering a deal that would give Saudi access to U.S. nuclear technology - and could let Saudi enrich its own uranium in the future. •U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the details of an agreement are still hazy but "but it certainly looks like there is a pathway" forward. CHINA •China made another move in its escalating trade spat with the U.S.: Beijing suspended exports of certain rare earths to the U.S. in retaliation for higher U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods. •The NYT assessed that the White House hopes to stop the escalation with direct talks: "The U.S. administration has been waiting for the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, to call Trump, but Beijing appears wary of putting Xi in an unpredictable situation with the U.S. president." •Xi, meanwhile, is on a charm offensive through Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia) this week. His trip was planned long before Pres. Trump surprised those countries with high reciprocal tariffs (which were later paused), but it has taken on new significance after Trump's tariff announcements. Analysts believe Xi will now use his Asian meetings to counter-position China as a stable trade partner - in juxtaposition to the unreliable one keeping global markets on edge. •Separately, the UK took control of its last operating steel production factory from its Chinese owners, who lost interest in the loss-making blast furnaces but still control British Steel's more profitable milling segment. •The episode tainted the UK's trust in Chinese investment: UK business secretary Jonathan Reynolds accused the British Steel's Chinese owners of not negotiating "in good faith," and said future Chinese investment offers would need to clear a "high trust bar" after this. [More cynical voices accuse British Steel's Chinese owners of deliberately ruining its business at the behest and benefit of the Chinese government.] UKRAINE •Russia fired missiles at the Ukrainian city of Sumy during Palm Sunday celebrations yesterday, killing at least 34. •Early reports suggest the Russian missiles fell on Sumy in two waves: an initial one followed by a second that landed as emergency responders arrived to aid victims of the first wave. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash Update 26 March UKRAINE AND RUSSIA •Following three days of indirect negotiations in Saudi Arabia, Ukraine and Russia each agreed to "end the use of force" in the Black Sea and ensure "safe passage" of vessels through it - but under certain conditions that still seem far off. •In particular, Russia said it wouldn't put down its arms until the U.S. and EU lift their embargoes on Russian agricultural products - something the White House pledged to help Russia accomplish (and something Pres. Zelensky opposes as "a weakening of positions and a weakening of sanctions." •The EU is unlikely to agree to lift its sanctions anyway - even under U.S. pressure - and Pres. Zelensky complained that Russia was shifting the goalposts for a deal with new demands. It's clear that it will take further negotiations to secure a concrete Black Sea truce. GAZA •Hundreds of Gazans turned out to protest against Hamas in Beit Lahia in northern Gaza. It was a rare rebuke of the militant group that has ruled Gaza since 2007 - and drew it into war with Israel with its Oct. 7 attacks. Armed Hamas fighters broke up the demonstrations. DRC •Rwandan and pro-DRC government forces resumed fighting in North and South Kivu yesterday - despite agreeing to a ceasefire a day earlier. That ceasefire now looks as worthless as the others that came - and failed - before it. SUDAN •Sudan's military is facing criticism for an airstrike on a market in Darfur that reportedly killed dozens to hundreds of civilians on Monday. •The military denied targeting civilians, but both it and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) fighting it have been credibly accused of shelling civilian areas. •Separately, the army retook Khartoum airport from the RSF. SAHEL •Nigerien junta leader Abdourahamane Tiani was sworn in as the country's transitional president at the start of a five-year "flexible" transition back to civilian rule. •That follows a similar playbook to the one used by the juntas in Niger's fellow Alliance of Sahel States (Burkina Faso and Mali): grab power in a coup, then hold onto it for an extended period by promising to eventually transfer it to an elected government. It remains to be seen whether any of them will actually relinquish rule. IRAN •The U.S. slapped sanctions on three Iranian officials for their alleged involvement in the disappearance and probable death of ex-FBI Special Agent Robert Levinson. Levinson disappeared in Iran in 2007, and is believed to have died in captivity - though Iran never acknowledged abducting him or admitted he died on their watch.
Open source reportOff Leash update 24 March 2025 COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,623/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,450/ton •Cobalt: $33,610/ton •Copper: $9,856/ton •Gold: $3,029/toz •Lead: $2,017/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.94/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $68.18/barrel •Zinc: $2,928/ton UKRAINE •Ukrainian and U.S. officials met in Riyadh yesterday, and may continue their summit today. They aim to finalize details surrounding the 30-day pause on striking energy infrastructure. •U.S. officials in Riyadh will also meet with Russian officials today. Russia has already agreed to the pause on energy infrastructure strikes, so these meetings will seek to advance an additional maritime ceasefire. •China is reportedly considering contributing peacekeepers to uphold a post-war truce in Ukraine "in accordance with the wishes of the parties." Russia had previously rejected the idea of NATO peacekeepers in Ukraine, but would probably be more amenable if China participated in the mission. GAZA •U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff told Fox News Sunday that Hamas seemed to initially accept his bridge proposal to extend the Gaza ceasefire last week, but then reneged and rejected it. Witkoff blamed Hamas for the failure to find a truce and the descent to resumed fighting. •Israel targeted Hamas's prime minister in Gaza, Ismail Barhoum, killing him in a hospital where he was receiving treatment for injuries he sustained in another Israeli strike. Barhoum had only been prime minister for a few days after his predecessor was killed earlier in the week - also by an Israeli strike. •Hamas's health ministry said Gaza's wartime death toll has now surpassed 50,000. Hamas doesn't distinguish between dead civilians and combatants. •Israel's Security Cabinet inaugurated a new directorate to assist Palestinians who want to be resettled abroad, and the new directorate kicked off its mission by flying 70 Gazans with foreign citizenships or family ties to Europe, where they'll resettle. YEMEN •Yemen's Houthis fired a Palestine 2 ballistic missile in the general direction of Israel's Ben Gurion Airport, but it was easily intercepted before it reached Israeli airspace (despite Houthi claims that it reached its target). SUDAN •After seizing the presidential palace from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on Friday, Sudan's military continued to retake key sites in Khartoum. Over the weekend, it recaptured the Central Bank, the intelligence headquarters, and the Corinthia Hotel. •The army's recent success in Khartoum doesn't mean the war is over: the RSF still holds parts of the capital, as well as large swathes of western Sudan. DRC •Nearly a week after Presidents Tshisekedi and Kagame agreed on the necessity of imposing a ceasefire in eastern DRC, the leaders of the Rwanda-backed rebel umbrella group Alliance Fleuve Congo (which includes the M23) said it supported a truce and announced that its fighters would withdraw from the mining town of Walikale, which they captured the day after Tshisekedi and Kagame met in Doha. •Tshisekedi then kindly asked (but did not order) his troops to observe the ceasefire too. •Both sides seem skeptical of the truce and ready to resume fighting at any moment. Rwanda and the rebels it backs are not ceding Goma or their other major spoils of war, and the Congolese military warned that it "reserves the right to intervene in the event of any hostile movement likely to compromise the pause in fighting." 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 March 2025 COMING UP THIS WEEK •U.S. and Ukrainian officials will meet in Saudi Arabia starting tomorrow. Pres. Zelensky is in Saudi and said he was "fully committed" to negotiating an end to the war, but he won't participate in the U.S.-Ukrainian meetings; instead, he'll meet Saudi's Crown Prince MBS for economic talks while his delegates meet U.S. SecState Rubio et al. •Greenland goes to the polls tomorrow. While the question of independence from Denmark isn't directly on the ballot, analysts will be watching results to see if Greenlanders veer towards candidates in favor of greater autonomy for their island. •China, Iran, and Russia will hold joint naval exercises in the northern Indian Ocean this week. Several countries - including Pakistan, Qatar, South Africa, and the UAE - will send observers. COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,706/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,450/ton •Cobalt: $26,960/ton •Copper: $9,614/ton •Gold: $2,901/toz •Lead: $2,019/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.60/MMbtu - a three-year high due to supply constraints and cold weather •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $67.06/barrel •Zinc: $2,887/ton GAZA •France, Germany, Italy, and the UK said they would support Egypt's plan for post-war Gaza; however, that plan still faces significant hurdles: the U.S. and Israel have rejected it - Israel more vehemently than the U.S. - and so far no donors have stepped up to commit the first of the $53 billion needed to fund the plan. •Optimists are hopeful for a second-phase ceasefire agreement this week. Israel sent a delegation to Qatar today "in an effort to advance the negotiations," and Hamas said it has received "positive signals" from the Egyptian and Qatari mediators it's been working with. SYRIA •An independent monitor estimated that over 1,000 people - mostly civilians - have been killed in the past week's clashes between the new government's forces and loyalists to the deposed Assad regime in Latakia. •The Assad loyalists clashing with government troops don't appear to be centrally organized or led; rather, the Institute for the Study of War suggests there are multiple small groups of loyalists each independently declaring a "united" front against the new government. •Interim president Ahmed al Sharaa appealed for calm and asked Syrians "to be reassured because the country has the fundamentals for survival." IRAN •Pres. Trump said he wrote a letter to Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, proposing a revival of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran. •Khamenei seemed cold on the idea: he complained about "bullying governments" using talks "as a pathway to have new demands." •Pres. Pezeshkian, meanwhile, seemed more open to talks - but noted that Khamenei calls the shots: "My position has been and will remain that I believe in negotiations, but now we have to follow the parameters set by the supreme leader." UKRAINE •A group of civilian and military analysts unveiled a framework for a ceasefire in Ukraine that came out of their spring 2022 meeting in Geneva. Their proposal calls for a six-mile buffer zone along the 700-mile front lines, which would be patrolled by peacekeepers, including foreign troops (the UK and France have offered to send peacekeepers, but Russia rejected the idea). •Meanwhile, Russia is eroding Ukraine's gains in Kursk by pushing Ukrainian front lines back and cutting off supply chains to the ~10,000 Ukrainian troops in Kursk. Ukraine had hoped to use the parts of Kursk it recaptured last year as bargaining chips in a negotiated peace; Russia's recent counter-advance will leave Ukraine with less to offer in a truce. •Separately, Pres. Trump said he was "just about" ready to start sharing intelligence with Ukraine again - now that Ukraine is participating obligingly in peace talks in Saudi. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 March 2025 COMING UP THIS WEEK •U.S. and Ukrainian officials will meet in Saudi Arabia starting tomorrow. Pres. Zelensky is in Saudi and said he was "fully committed" to negotiating an end to the war, but he won't participate in the U.S.-Ukrainian meetings; instead, he'll meet Saudi's Crown Prince MBS for economic talks while his delegates meet U.S. SecState Rubio et al. •Greenland goes to the polls tomorrow. While the question of independence from Denmark isn't directly on the ballot, analysts will be watching results to see if Greenlanders veer towards candidates in favor of greater autonomy for their island. •China, Iran, and Russia will hold joint naval exercises in the northern Indian Ocean this week. Several countries - including Pakistan, Qatar, South Africa, and the UAE - will send observers. COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,706/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,450/ton •Cobalt: $26,960/ton •Copper: $9,614/ton •Gold: $2,901/toz •Lead: $2,019/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.60/MMbtu - a three-year high due to supply constraints and cold weather •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $67.06/barrel •Zinc: $2,887/ton GAZA •France, Germany, Italy, and the UK said they would support Egypt's plan for post-war Gaza; however, that plan still faces significant hurdles: the U.S. and Israel have rejected it - Israel more vehemently than the U.S. - and so far no donors have stepped up to commit the first of the $53 billion needed to fund the plan. •Optimists are hopeful for a second-phase ceasefire agreement this week. Israel sent a delegation to Qatar today "in an effort to advance the negotiations," and Hamas said it has received "positive signals" from the Egyptian and Qatari mediators it's been working with. SYRIA •An independent monitor estimated that over 1,000 people - mostly civilians - have been killed in the past week's clashes between the new government's forces and loyalists to the deposed Assad regime in Latakia. •The Assad loyalists clashing with government troops don't appear to be centrally organized or led; rather, the Institute for the Study of War suggests there are multiple small groups of loyalists each independently declaring a "united" front against the new government. •Interim president Ahmed al Sharaa appealed for calm and asked Syrians "to be reassured because the country has the fundamentals for survival." IRAN •Pres. Trump said he wrote a letter to Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, proposing a revival of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran. •Khamenei seemed cold on the idea: he complained about "bullying governments" using talks "as a pathway to have new demands." •Pres. Pezeshkian, meanwhile, seemed more open to talks - but noted that Khamenei calls the shots: "My position has been and will remain that I believe in negotiations, but now we have to follow the parameters set by the supreme leader." UKRAINE •A group of civilian and military analysts unveiled a framework for a ceasefire in Ukraine that came out of their spring 2022 meeting in Geneva. Their proposal calls for a six-mile buffer zone along the 700-mile front lines, which would be patrolled by peacekeepers, including foreign troops (the UK and France have offered to send peacekeepers, but Russia rejected the idea). •Meanwhile, Russia is eroding Ukraine's gains in Kursk by pushing Ukrainian front lines back and cutting off supply chains to the ~10,000 Ukrainian troops in Kursk. Ukraine had hoped to use the parts of Kursk it recaptured last year as bargaining chips in a negotiated peace; Russia's recent counter-advance will leave Ukraine with less to offer in a truce. •Separately, Pres. Trump said he was "just about" ready to start sharing intelligence with Ukraine again - now that Ukraine is participating obligingly in peace talks in Saudi.
Open source reportOff Leash update 27 Feb Ukraine •The new U.S.-Ukraine mineral deal is taking shape quickly: it was only announced Tuesday (though speculation was swirling before that), and Pres. Zelensky will fly to Washington tomorrow to sign the final agreement. •Negotiators leaked a draft of the agreement dated Tuesday to the media, and several outlets published the full text (https://t.co/WCfpbsvV3e). Some takeaways: oUkraine will put half of its revenues from future mineral and energy sales into a new, U.S.-controlled investment fund that will reinvest some of the funds into rebuilding Ukraine. oThe fund will only draw on revenues from new projects; proceeds from existing mines, oil wells, etc. are not part of this arrangement. oThe only reference to U.S. security guarantees is highly noncommittal - paragraph 10 says the U.S. "supports Ukraine’s effort to obtain security guarantees needed to establish lasting peace" - but Zelensky said he's content with that wording. Trump told his cabinet the onus for security guarantees should be on Europe - not the U.S. oTrump's initial demands for a $500 billion contribution target and Ukraine's commitment to repay twice the amount of any future U.S. aid were both omitted from the draft. •Ukraine has large untapped reserves of several critical minerals whose development could contribute to this fund, including uranium (Europe's largest reserves!), graphite, lithium, titanium, natural gas, and rare earths. However, around 40% of its mineral resources are in regions Russia controls - and would likely keep in a peace deal. Gaza •Hamas and Israel both fulfilled their part of a delicate hostage-prisoner swap yesterday: Hamas returned the remains of four deceased hostages - and crucially, did so without any of the macabre theatrics that marred prior handovers - and Israel began releasing the 600-plus Palestinian prisoners it agreed to free in return. •This swap went smoothly, but the Gaza ceasefire remains fragile, and Israel and Hamas still haven't agreed on terms for the second phase that begins on Sunday. •Israel estimates that Hamas now holds about 25 living and 30 deceased hostages. Syria •Prominent Syrians who attended Pres. al Sharaa's two-day nation-building conference this week left underwhelmed. Several said the summit was poorly organized, left out key stakeholders (like the Syrian Democratic Forces), and failed to make meaningful progress towards planning Syria's future. Venezuela •Pres. Trump announced that he was cancelling Biden-era concessions that allowed Chevron to continue producing and exporting Venezuelan oil because Pres. Maduro failed to implement promised electoral and immigration reforms. •Chevron's license to continue production and export despite sanctions brought an estimated $4 billion into Maduro's state coffers and represented around a quarter of Venezuelan oil production while it was in force. Sahel •The Alliance of Sahel States - Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger - unveiled a new flag for the triad their juntas formed in opposition to ECOWAS. •In keeping with their modus operandi of doing the opposite of whatever their former colonizer - France - would do, the flag they designed is an affront to modern vexillology that breaks all the important rules of flag design (no lettering, simple design a child could draw from memory, 2-3 basic colors that contrast well, etc.)
Open source reportOff Leash update 5 Feb Israel and Gaza •Pres. Trump received Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at the White House yesterday. •Netanyahu was the first foreign leader Trump invited to visit during his new term, and analysts suggested Trump's invitation was intended to mend bilateral ties that Trump's envoys tested by pushing Netanyahu to agree to a Gaza ceasefire deal that Netanyahu's hardline supporters opposed. •Following their meeting, Trump proposed that the U.S. take control of the Gaza Strip after permanently relocating the two million Palestinians living there to "other countries of interest with humanitarian hearts." It's not clear which other countries would accept permanently-displaced Palestinians: Egypt and Jordan have both rejected Trump's request to take them in. Syria •Pres. Al Sharaa continued his first foreign tour with a visit to Turkiye, which is home to about three million Syrian refugees. •Turkiye has offered to help train and equip Syria's new army - in part, because it wants to ensure Kurdish groups like the People's Protection Units (YPG) aren't welcome in the new force. •Al Sharaa, on the other hand, wants the new army to be more inclusive, and said he has "asked [Turkiye] to wait in order to give space for the negotiations" with the YPG and other Kurdish groups. Turkiye seems to be obliging for now, but may feel pushed to intervene if Al Sharaa prolongs negotiations. •Al Sharaa also gave his first media interview since becoming interim president to The Economist, and it was a bit testier than his recent pronouncements promising inclusivity and peace. He warned Israel of "trouble in the future" if it keeps control of the terrain it captured as the Assad regime fell in December, and called the U.S. military presence in eastern Syria "illegal." •Al Sharaa was vague about his plans for elections and democratic governance, only offering that the country was "heading in the direction of" democracy. North Korea •A Ukrainian commander told Business Insider that the North Korean soldiers his company fought against in Russia were treated like "cannon fodder" and "would just charge forward from the tree line, like in a World War II movie." •His account of the North Koreans' unconventional battle tactics was consistent with other reports of their chaotic and seemingly fearless battlefield movements. Russia has since withdrawn the (reportedly decimated) North Korean units from the front lines, and some analysts have speculated they're being retrained in modern battle tactics before they return to the front lines.
Open source reportOff Leash update 23 Jan Yemen •Yemen's Houthi rebels released the crew of the Galaxy Leader - a ship they hijacked at the beginning of their stranglehold on Red Sea shipping lanes in Nov. 2023 - citing "coordination with the Hamas movement." The Houthis had conditioned the crew's release upon a ceasefire in Gaza, and made good on that pledge by freeing them on Day 4 of the ceasefire. •The Houthis have also pledged to scale back their Red Sea attacks to focus on Israeli-linked ships, but - as I noted on Monday - many analysts are skeptical that they'd relinquish the lucrative business of selling safe passage guarantees that blossomed because of their attacks on vessels that haven't paid up. •Unrelatedly, Pres. Trump signed an executive order re-designating the Houthis a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO). Trump had designated the Houthis a FTO - and a Specially Designated Global Terrorist group - in his first term, but ex-Pres. Biden lifted both designations to facilitate humanitarian aid flows to Yemen. Ukraine •Pres. Zelensky spoke at Davos yesterday with a warning that Pres. Trump's "America First" priorities will leave a geopolitical leadership gap, and called on European Union (EU) leaders to fill it: "Europe needs to compete for the top spot in priorities, alliances and technological development." Russia •European Commission Vice President Kaja Kallas delivered a similar message at the European Defense Agency, warning that "Russia could test the EU's readiness to defend itself in three to five years" and calling on the EU to spend more on defense and "prepare for the worst." •Kallas pointed out that Russia currently spends 9% of its GDP on defense - compared to a collective EU average of 1.9% - and is far better equipped than the EU for a further military buildup upon escalation. She noted, for example, that Russia can produce more weapons and ammunition in three months than the EU's 27 countries can produce collectively in 12 months, and called for EU countries to earmark more for defense. 1/2
Open source reportGaza negotiations, Russian attacks in western Ukraine, South Korean political turmoil, U.S. policy toward TikTok and Cuba, oil-shipping disruptions, and contested political transitions in Venezuela and Mozambique.
Open source reportOff Leash update 8 January Sudan •The U.S. Treasury formally accused the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) of perpetrating genocide in Sudan and slapped additional sanctions on RSF leader Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (aka Hemedti) and seven Emirati companies that have helped him export gold and import weapons. •This is the second time the U.S. has called out genocide in Sudan: the first was 20 years ago when it sanctioned the Janjaweed - a precursor to the RSF back when the RSF was aligned with the military and before it started fighting against it - of genocide in Darfur. •The genocide accusation and attached sanctions won't have much of an immediate effect on the raging war since Hemedti is already well armed. In fact, the move could turn out to be counterproductive if it repels Hemedti from negotiations. •Meanwhile, the military is gaining ground against the RSF in Omdurman, which is across the Nile from Khartoum. Ukraine and Russia •Ukrainian drones targeted Kursk's Engel oil depot, which supplies many of the long-range bombers Russia is using to strike Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Russia claimed its air defenses intercepted the attack, mitigating its damage. •Despite Ukraine's new offensive in Kursk, Russia continues to gain ground inside Ukraine. Earlier this week, Russian forces captured the strategic eastern Ukrainian town of Kurakhove after months of fighting. •Some analysts think Ukraine's Kursk offensive is intended to draw Russian resources away from the front lines in Ukraine and slow Russia's advance there. Venezuela •Pres. Maduro announced the arrest of seven foreign "mercenaries" who he says were planning "terrorist acts" to disrupt his (illegitimate) inauguration on Friday. •Maduro said the group included two Colombian "hitmen," three "mercenaries" from Ukraine, and two U.S. citizens who were "very high level" (though he didn't say at what). •Maduro expressed confidence that the seven will confess "in the next few hours." Afghanistan •The WSJ reported that the Biden Administration is in talks with the Taliban to free three U.S. citizens from Afghan jail in exchange for the release of Muhammad Rahim al Afghani - a senior Al Qaeda leader with direct links to Osama bin Laden - from Guantanamo Bay. •The specific terms aren't agreed yet: for example, the Taliban says it is only holding two of the three Americans the U.S. requested (all of whom were jailed in the past two years under Taliban rule), and it wants the U.S. to release two more Afghan prisoners (who are not at Guantanamo) as well. •Biden's critics are already calling it a bad deal. It is... Gaza •Incoming Pres. Trump will send an envoy to Doha for last-ditch negotiations to try to secure a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal before Trump's inauguration on Jan. 20. Trump warned that "all hell will break out" if the talks fail to produce a deal before his inauguration. Other News •The UK's new electronic travel authorization (ETA) system goes into effect today. •Travelers to the UK from many non-European countries - including the U.S., Canada, Australia, and Mexico - will now have to apply for an ETA online (https://t.co/S6qsn94JfX or via iOS or Google Play apps) and pay a £10 ($12.51) fee with each application. •Processing takes up to three days, and authorizations are good for multiple entries over a two year period or until the authorized passport expires, whichever is shorter. •After April 2, travelers to the UK from European countries will need to apply for an ETA too.
Open source reportOff Leash update 27 Dec Russia •Finland's coast guard seized an oil tanker that it says is part of Russia's "shadow fleet" of vessels evading sanctions. Police claim the vessel was involved in another incident of "aggravated vandalism" that severed the Estlink 2 undersea cable between Finland and Estonia (and damaged four other subsea cables). Mozambique •Cautious reports from Mozambique suggest that post-election violence has escalated sharply since Monday, when the country's top court upheld the ruling Frelimo party's win - and opposition runner-up Venancio Mondlane urged his supporters to protest the ruling. •Much of the latest violence occurred during the prison riots reported yesterday, but separate incidents around the country added to the week's death toll - which one NGO estimated at 125. •Zimbabwe's Pres Mnangagwa - who currently chairs the Southern African Development Community (SADC) - said the SADC is standing by to help Mozambique resolve its turmoil...if Frelimo is willing to engage in talks. So far Frelimo hasn't even acknowledged that there's anything to discuss with the opposition. DRC •Following DRC's lawsuit accusing Apple subsidiaries of using conflict minerals from DRC, Apple said it would stop buying minerals that can be traced back to DRC and Rwanda. •The tricky thing about the minerals in question - tantalum, tungsten, and tin - is that supplies from all over the world get smelted together (often in China) before being sold to intermediaries and parts suppliers, so by the time a mineral-containing product gets to Apple, it's impossible to tell whether the mineral content came from DRC or anywhere else. I.e., short of capturing the entire supply chain (which Apple doesn't do), there's no way Apple can guarantee its minerals aren't coming from DRC. Somalia •Al Shabaab issued a statement eulogizing Mohamed Mire, a senior leader who served in a quasi-interior minister capacity. Shabaab's statement claimed Mire was killed in a U.S. airstrike in Lower Shabelle on Tuesday night, and that's probably correct - though the Pentagon hasn't yet confirmed whether it carried out strikes there this week. Other News •South Korea's parliament voted to impeach acting president Han Duck-soo for allegedly stalling the process of impeaching his predecessor, Yoon Suk Yeol. That throws the executive branch back into disarray, with no clear leader to guide through the crisis. Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok will likely become acting president now.
Open source reportOff Leash update 16 DEC Coming Up This Week •The U.S. Federal Reserve Board meets for the last time in 2024 on Wednesday. The market expects the Fed to cut target interest rates this week but signal a slower pace of rate cuts for 2025. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,605/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $33,550/ton •Cobalt: $24,300/ton •Copper: $9,053/ton •Gold: $2,655/toz •Lead: $2,010/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.22/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $71.06/barrel •Zinc: $3,096/ton Syria •SecState Blinken confirmed that U.S. officials have been in direct contact with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) - the rebel group leading the coalition that ousted Pres. Assad. It was the first formal confirmation that Washington is engaging the likely leaders of Syria's new government - who remain designated terrorists. •Satellite images seemed to show Russian troops packing up some equipment to leave Syria. Media reports suggest Russia is only scaling back but intends to maintain a smaller presence in Syria - concentrated at Hmeimim airbase in Latakia and Tartous naval base - going forward. •Meanwhile, Israel seems to be preparing for a prolonged presence along the border with Syria: Defense Minister Katz ordered troops to prepare to spend the winter deployed to Mount Hermon "due to what is happening in Syria." Israel hopes its troop presence can prevent hostile forces from filling the vacuum Assad's fleeing army left behind. •For similar reasons, Israel also announced plans to double its population in the Golan Heights, which it captured from Syria in 1967 and has occupied since. Prime Minister Netanyahu explained that expanding the Israeli presence on the strategic plateau will help "thwart the potential threats from Syria and to prevent the takeover of terrorist elements near our border." Russia •Two Russian oil tankers ran into trouble in the Black Sea yesterday: bad weather caused one to sink and another to run aground. Environmentalists are concerned about the 4,300 tons of fuel oil that sank with the Volgoneft-212, and Russian investigators opened inquiries into possible safety violations on both ships. Israel •Ireland filed an intervention at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in support of South Africa's genocide case against Israel (which is not a member of the ICJ and doesn't recognize ICJ's jurisdiction). •Ireland's filing enraged Israel's foreign minister, who complained that "Ireland has crossed every red line in its relationship with Israel" and said Israel would close its embassy in Dublin. Ireland will retain its embassy in Tel Aviv, and bilateral diplomatic relations will continue through that channel. Sahel •Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger agreed to a longer cooling-off period before they formally withdraw from the Economic Community of African States (ECOWAS) regional bloc. •All three countries' juntas hastily announced their intention to leave ECOWAS in Jan. 2024 and were due to formally exit the group Jan. 29, 2025. However, they'll now have another six months to entertain the bloc's last-ditch pleas to change their "irreversible" decisions to leave. Other News •Cyclone Chido ravaged the Indian Ocean islands of Mayotte Friday, leaving hundreds - or possibly thousands - feared dead. Mayotte is an overseas territory of France with a per capita GDP of just $11,850, making it the poorest place in the European Union. France has sent rescuers and will probably need to fund reconstruction. •South Korea's National Assembly impeached Pres. Yoon Suk Yeol over his quasi-coup attempt. The Constitutional Court will now decide whether to reinstate the unpopular Yoon or remove him from office. •Germany's Chancellor Scholz lost a no-confidence vote in Germany's parliament today, setting the stage for early elections in Feb. 2025.
Open source reportOff Leash update 9Dec Coming Up This Week •Bitcoin MENA 2024 opens today in Abu Dhabi. The cryptocurrency conference will feature Pres.-elect Trump's son, Eric, as its keynote speaker. •The UN Security Council expects to extend UN peacekeepers' mandate in eastern DRC for another year during a review today. Meanwhile, Angola will host - and mediate - another round of peace talks between DRC and Rwanda starting tomorrow. The previous round of talks in August resulted in a ceasefire deal that's largely holding up (albeit with occasional violations); this next round aims to align on terms for M23 and FDLR rebels to withdraw and disband. •The Chinese Communist Party holds its annual economic conference on Wednesday. This summit will set next year's economic agenda, which analysts expect will focus on implementing a new "moderately loose" monetary policy to boost growth and stop deflation. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,604/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $33,500/ton •Cobalt: $24,300/ton •Copper: $9,123/ton •Gold: $2,657/toz •Lead: $2,072/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.24/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $68.06/barrel •Zinc: $3,072/ton Syria •Syrian rebels easily overthrew Pres. Assad after Assad's foreign supporters - primarily Moscow and Tehran - declined to backstop his forces. There were hardly any forces to backstop anyway: many Syrian soldiers quickly ditched their fatigues for civilian clothes as they fled their posts. •Iranian officials quoted in the Financial Times suggested Assad had lost favor with Iran when he failed to prevent Israeli strikes on Iranian military assets within Syria. Others told the NYT that Tehran suddenly realized that supporting Assad was a losing battle amidst changing regional dynamics. Still others reportedly turned on Assad because they believed - probably correctly - that Assad has been cozying up to Sunni Arab states like the UAE with offers to loosen ties with Shia Iran in exchange for new post-war reconstruction commitments. •Whatever the reason, Assad clearly lost Iran's support in recent months - which is probably why Assad and his family fled to Moscow instead of Tehran. Russia reportedly offered the Assads asylum in exchange for guarantees Pres. Assad secured from rebels to keep Russian military assets in Syria safe for long enough to allow Russia to collect them. •Now what? A Damascus resident foreshadowed ominously: "We can’t predict the future and anything is possible, but the most important thing is we got rid of this oppressive regime." •It's far from certain that whatever replaces Assad's 24-year reign will be an improvement over his dictatorship and many analysts are worried about a resurgent civil war between rebel factions that have nothing in common now that they've succeeded in overthrowing their mutual enemy. Some are already fighting each other in Manbij. •The strongest of the rebel factions is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), whose leader is trying to rebrand as a statesman: he even changed his Telegram nickname from his fighting name, Abu Mohammed al Golani, to the much more responsible-sounding "President Ahmed al Shara," and promised to protect the rights of Christians and women as leader. •The U.S. pounded Islamic State targets in eastern Syria to prevent the jihadists from filling the power vacuum Assad's departure left behind. The U.S. has also been exchanging secret messages with HTS via Turkish intermediaries. [The U.S. still considers HTS a terrorist group, but a lesser evil of a terrorist group than the Islamic State (IS)-aligned jihadists that still control pockets of Syria.] •Meanwhile, Israeli troops crossed into Syria from the occupied Golan Heights to prevent jihadists from solidifying control of border regions. Israel also took advantage of Assad's (and Iran's) departure to carry out airstrikes on suspected chemical weapons and rocket manufacturing facilities across Syria. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 28 Nov Lebanon •The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire that took effect yesterday is largely holding - although thousands of displaced Lebanese began to return to southern villages before Israeli forces withdrew and lifted movement restrictions. Israeli soldiers opened fire on "suspects" and vehicles that violated movement restrictions in at least six villages. •On the other side of the border, tens of thousands of displaced Israeli civilians seem more reluctant to trust the truce and aren't rushing to return to the homes they fled. •They have good reason to be wary: in its first official statement since the ceasefire announcement, Hezbollah vowed to continue its resistance and monitor the Israeli withdrawal from border regions with "hands on the trigger." •Despite its tough talk, Hezbollah was clearly the turkey in this deal: it lost an estimated 4,000 fighters and most of its senior leadership in the past three months and gained nothing from the truce except an end to a war Hamas started. Syria •Syria's Pres. Assad has long relied on Hezbollah and other Iran-backed Shia allies to keep rebel Sunni groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in check in the northwest. •Now conflicts with Israel have severely diminished Iran's proxies, and Al Qaeda-linked HTS spied an opportunity to gobble back territory around Aleppo. HTS and its allied factions launched their most significant attacks on Syrian government forces since the 2020 ceasefire, capturing the largest Syrian army base there - Base 46 - and encroaching to within three miles (five km) of Aleppo city. •Assad's air force - along with its Russian allies and unnamed "friendly forces" - claimed that it responded with a devastating counterattack, but local reports suggest fighting is ongoing - which would portend regime weakness and much more volatility to come. Ukraine •Pres.-elect Trump appointed Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Keith Kellogg to the new post of Special Envoy to Russia and Ukraine, where he'll be tasked with overseeing efforts to bring about a quick end to the war. •Analysts are looking to an April 2024 position paper Kellogg wrote for insight into how he might approach that task. One idea his paper suggested was "to put off NATO membership [for Ukraine] for an extended period" to draw Pres. Putin into negotiations. •Separately, Russia launched another massive barrage of drones and missiles at over 180 targets in western Ukraine near Lviv - far from the front lines. Ukraine intercepted a majority of the projectiles, but the handful that reached their targets took out electricity for over one million Ukrainians. China •According to the Wall Street Journal, Baltic investigators have a theory on how two undersea cables were severed on consecutive days last week. •Investigators believe the Chinese bulk carrier Yi Peng 3 deliberately dragged its anchor along the seabed for more than 100 miles (160 km) and across the two affected cables. As one investigator pointed out: "It’s extremely unlikely that the captain would not have noticed that his ship dropped and dragged its anchor, losing speed for hours and cutting cables on the way." •They don't think the Chinese government was involved, but they do suspect Russian intelligence was. (The Kremlin called these "absurd, unsubstantiated accusations.") Mexico •Pres.-elect Trump and Mexico's Pres. Sheinbaum spoke by phone yesterday to address Trump's concerns about illegal immigration through Mexico - and his threat to slap a 25% tariff on Mexican imports to the U.S. if Mexico doesn't address his immigration concerns. •Trump's readout suggested the conversation was easy as pie: he said Sheinbaum agreed to "stop Migration through Mexico, and into the United States, effectively closing our Southern Border." 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 26 Nov Tariffs •President-elect Trump said he would sign an executive order on his first day in office - Jan. 20, 2025 - to slap new tariffs of 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico, and 10% on China. Trump called the levies a "price" those nations must pay for their failure to stop the flow of illegal drugs and immigrants to the U.S. •All three affected countries immediately objected to the proposed tariffs. Canada objected politely, explaining that it's already working well with U.S. officials to block fentanyl trafficking "from China and other countries." •China, meanwhile, objected with hostility, calling the idea that it would deliberately send fentanyl precursors to the U.S. runs "completely counter to facts," and ominously warning that "no one will win a trade war or a tariff war." Hezbollah •It sounds like Israel and Hezbollah are close to finalizing a ceasefire deal that would give Israeli forces 60 days to withdraw from Lebanon and require Hezbollah to disarm along the border with Israel, where 5,000 Lebanese troops will deploy to help enforce the peace. •The terms of the latest proposal aren't public, but are said to closely track UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war. Except this time Hezbollah won't be allowed to rebuild its forces along the border. •Prime Minister Netanyahu and his cabinet will meet today to discuss the proposal, and Netanyahu is thought to be open to agreeing to the tabled terms - for once. That may mean Hezbollah and Lebanon gave in to his demand reserving the right to resume hostilities if Hezbollah breaks the truce first. •Meanwhile, Israeli forces have now reached the Litani River, which would form the northern frontier of the border buffer zone the Lebanese army will enforce after Israel withdraws south and Hezbollah withdraws north. Ukraine •Russia launched another new record number of drones at Ukraine overnight, once again targeting Ukrainian infrastructure. •Ukraine said it shot down or blocked most of the 188 drones that were launched over its border, but some reached their targets. •Russia is also making rapid gains on the ground: Reuters reported - citing analysts and war bloggers - that Russian ground forces are currently advancing at their fastest rate since 2022 using rapid, small-scale incursions to achieve footholds and then follow up with reinforcements to secure gains. •Meanwhile, Ukraine requested an emergency meeting of NATO ambassadors in Brussels today to discuss Russia's recent use of an intermediate-range ballistic missile against Dnipro last week. Ukraine hopes for "concrete and meaningful outcomes" from the meeting, but it's unlikely to win enthusiastic support from tired donors. Sudan •The Economist reported that the Sudanese army has made clear recent gains against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in central Sennar state and Khartoum in recent weeks. •The weakened RSF has signaled openness to a truce, but the army isn't willing to talk just yet. The RSF still controls most of southwest Sudan, and the army likely wants to improve its negotiating position by locking in more territorial gains before talks begin. Venezuela •Venezuela's opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado, called for a new day of demonstrations against Pres. Maduro's election theft on Dec 1. •Maduro's Minister of the Interior then accused Machado of orchestrating another conspiracy against Maduro and launched another bullying campaign against the opposition. In this case, police deployed to the Argentine Embassy to intimidate the many opposition figures from Machado's party who have taken refuge there.
Open source reportOff Leash update 25 Nov Coming Up This Week •The Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee on Plastics Pollution (INC-5) meets in Busan, Korea today through Sunday. They aim to set targets and a timeline for reducing global plastic production, but it will be hard to reach concensus on plastics policy when we don't yet have clear scientific concensus on the risks plastics pose - and with plastics producers and oil companies resisting new regulation. •Indonesia votes in regional elections and Namibia votes in a general election on Wednesday. Indonesia's vote isn't getting much press: most of the regional races are inconsequential on the national scale and the overall vote seems more like a gauge of new president Joko Widodo's regional influence than a referendum on his policy plan. In Namibia, the long-ruling SWAPO party faces its toughest test yet because economic frustrations are driving younger voters away from the status quo and into the arms of upstart opposition parties. •The U.S. celebrates Thanksgiving on Thursday and shops Black Friday the following day. Only one of the two holidays has spread beyond U.S. borders: many other countries - including much of Europe and even Iran - now join in on the Black Friday shopping bonanza...but not the Thanksgiving feast. •Ireland votes in a snap election on Friday. Prime Minister Harris's Fine Gael party is polling in third place after losing one-fourth of its support over a series of gaffes in recent weeks, but its main coalition partner - Fianna Fail - is polling in first, so their coalition should prevail. Coommodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,624/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $33,550/ton •Cobalt: $24,300/ton •Copper: $8,968/ton •Gold: $2,640/toz •Lead: $2,022/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.32/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $69.53/barrel •Zinc: $2,967/ton Israel, Hezbollah, and Hamas •Despite reported progress in Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire talks, both sides continued to exchange fire. Israel targeted a top Hezbollah military commander in central Beirut, killing at least 29 (but reportedly not the commander it was after). Hezbollah then retaliated by firing around 250 rockets into Israel, including at Tel Aviv (Israel intercepted most but there were a few injuries). •Israeli-Moldovan Rabbi Zvi Kogan went missing in Abu Dhabi last Thursday and was found murdered yesterday. Israeli officials called his killing an "abhorrent act of antisemitic terrorism," and UAE police arrested "three perpetrators involved in the murder." Israel has previously accused Iran and its proxies of targeting Israelis abroad, and Emirati police are investigating the possibility that Iran was behind this assassination. Ukraine / Yemen •Financial Times reported that Russia has recruited - and, in some cases, forced - hundreds of Yemenis to fight in its war against Ukraine. •According to the Times report, many of the new recruits had no prior military training or experience and couldn't read the enlistment contracts they signed. Some said a man speaking non-native Arabic fired a pistol over their head and ordered them to sign a document written in Russian. •The other side of Russia's recruitment drive in Yemen is equally concerning: U.S. Special Envoy for Yemen Tim Lenderking assessed that Russia may be rewarding the Houthi leaders facilitating its recruitment with promises to send new weapons the Houthis can use to target Red Sea shipping. Pakistan •Thousands of supporters of deposed Prime Minister Imran Khan rallied in Islamabad to demand his release from jail - and the dissolution of the current government that jailed him. Khan faces over 150 criminal charges - which he says are politically motivated - and has been incarcerated for over a year. Afghanistan •An apparently lone gunman opened fire at a Sufi shrine in Afghanistan's Baghlan province during a weekly ritual on Friday, killing 10. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 20November Hezbollah •U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein said a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah is "within our grasp" after Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri relayed Hezbollah's positive feedback on the latest proposed terms. •Even if Israel and Hezbollah are able to work out a truce, maintaining peace would be a challenge. The tall task of ensuring security for the border areas Hezbollah previously occupied would fall on the enfeebled Lebanese military - which has been hollowed out by decades of partisan infighting and has not proven itself up to the task. Gaza •In a change of tack, Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu offered hostage captors a carrot - in addition to a stick: he announced a reward of $5 million and safe passage from Gaza for anyone who returns an Israeli hostage. He also reiterated the threat of the stick, vowing to make anyone who harms a hostage "pay the price." Haiti •Haiti's police clashed with Viv Ansanm gang members in the posh Port-au-Prince suburb of Pétionville early yesterday after Viv Ansanm's leader, charismatic ex-cop Jimmy Chérizier (aka "Barbeque"), announced plans to attack the area on social media the previous night. Chérizier specifically threatened managers of Pétionville hotels protecting politicians or "oligarchs" inside. •Chérizier's advance warning may have given police and local residents time to mount a counterattack. Local vigilantes fought alongside police, and together they killed 28 suspected gang members. •Separately, Doctors Without Borders (or MSF, using its French acronym) said it would end its work in Haiti because of "violence and threats" police have made towards medical aid workers. MSF gives medical assistance to all who need it - including gang members - and its ambulances have occasionally been targeted for transporting injured gangsters. Venezuela •The U.S. formally recognized Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia as the "president-elect" of Venezuela. •That's consistent with the vote tallies the opposition provided, which showed Gonzalez defeating Pres. Maduro by a margin of almost two to one. Those are the only credible tallies available, since Maduro's government hasn't provided data to support his claim to victory. •Gonzalez is no longer in Venezuela to assume the presidency: he fled to Spain in September, citing fears for his life amidst Maduro's crackdown on the opposition. Ukraine •Multiple accounts - including from UK and Ukrainian military officials and the BBC - concluded that Russia suffered more military casualties in October than in any other month of the war. The UK estimated a daily average of 1,354 Russians killed or injured on each day of October. •The UK now estimates that Russia has suffered 700,000 casualties over the 1,000 days of the war to date. •Separately, Ukraine said it fired U.S.-made Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) ballistic missiles at targets in Russia's Bryansk border region (west of Kursk) for the first time yesterday - two days after reportedly getting Washington's long-withheld approval to do so. o[U.S. media had initially reported that the authorization would only be for use in Kursk, but this adjacent province may have been included in the approval since it houses military arsenals that support the fighting in Kursk.] •Russia claimed it intercepted five of six missiles fired and damaged the sixth. A U.S. official said only two of eight missiles fired were intercepted, and the other six hit their targets inside a munitions depot. •Moscow complained about the ATACMS barrage, calling it a "qualitatively new phase of the Western war" and promising to retaliate "accordingly." 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 13 Nov Hezbollah •Israel's foreign minister told the media that "there is some progress in the attempts to reach a settlement in Lebanon," raising hopes for a ceasefire. •However, such hopes now seem premature: Israel's brand-new defense minister, Israel Katz, quickly reaffirmed that "there will be no ceasefire and no respite" until Israel achieves its objectives, which include the lofty goal of returning tens of thousands of northern Israelis to the homes they evacuated due to war. •For its part, Hezbollah said it hasn't received any new peace proposals and is "ready for a prolonged war" with Israel. •It may not last too long anyway. Israel's military said it has "dismantled a majority of Hezbollah’s weapons storage and missile manufacturing facilities" under the Hezbollah stronghold of Dahieh, Beirut. •That hasn't stopped Hezbollah from lobbing more rockets and drones at Israel. The group launched around 200 attacks this week; killing one Israeli soldier and two civilians in separate attacks on northern Israel. •Separately, there are unconfirmed reports that a recent Israeli strike on al-Qusayr, Syria killed Salim Jamil Ayyash: the Hezbollah operative who was accused of (and convicted in absentia by a UN-backed tribunal for) assassinating Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri in 2005. In addition to his tribunal sentence to life in prison, Ayyash had a $10 million U.S. bounty on his head. Yemen •Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis launched drones and missiles at two U.S. destroyers - USS Stockdale and USS Spruance - in the Bab al Mandeb strait off the coast of Yemen. •It sounds like it was a significant barrage: a Pentagon spokesman said it lasted for hours and involved five ballistic missiles, two cruise missiles, and at least eight kamikaze drones. •The Houthis falsely claimed they attacked the USS Lincoln aircraft carrier too, and erroneously claimed its attack "successfully achieved its objectives": the USS Lincoln didn't report any incidents and the destroyers intercepted all incoming projectiles and sustained no damage or injuries. Ukraine •Russia fired missiles at Kyiv for the first time in three months. Ukraine's air defenses intercepted both cruise missiles and both ballistic missiles, as well as 37 drones. Kyiv reported only mild damage to a warehouse and a single minor injury - both from falling debris. Some drones were still flying, though. Sudan •The U.S. Treasury sanctioned the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) commander in West Darfur, Abdel Rahman Juma Barkalla, because of the human rights abuses his troops committed in the region under his command - including kidnapping and killing the regional governor. •Separately, the UN undersecretary-general for political and peacebuilding affairs called for unspecified countries and third-parties to stop sending weapons to the RSF and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). •The UAE and Russia's Africa Corps (fka Wagner Group) are arming the RSF, while Egypt is closely allied with the SAF and Iran is reportedly considering sending weapons to the SAF. Niger •Niger's Mining Minister, Ousmane Abarchi, told state media that the junta had "already met with Russian companies that are interested in coming to explore and exploit Niger's natural resources... not only uranium." (Though uranium is the most significant natural resource Niger has: it's the world's seventh-largest uranium producer). •The junta seems open to handing over its minerals to Russia - especially if it means snubbing French companies like Orano, which was producing uranium in Niger before the coup. Abarchi said French companies won't be allowed to exploit Niger's minerals because France refuses to recognize the junta's power grab. Electric Vehicles •Volkswagen quintupled down on its investment in U.S. electric vehicle (EV) maker Rivian, raising its investment from $800 million to $5.8 billion.
Open source reportOff Leash update 12Nov Venezuela •A gas pipeline exploded at the Muscar Operations Center in Venezuela's Eastern Monagas state yesterday, injuring at least five. •The blast also forced state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) to shut down the 63% of the country's fuel supply that comes from the facility. •Though Pres. Maduro may blame his usual bogeymen - the U.S. and its allies - early indications suggest the explosion happened because of poor maintenance and outdated equipment rather than sabotage. •It's not yet clear how long PDVSA's supply will be constrained. Mozambique •Opposition figure Venancio Mondlane called for new protests in Mozambique's cities, ports, and border posts tomorrow. •Authorities quickly - and apparently violently - quelled the first three rounds of demonstrations Mondlane incited against the election that he claims was stolen from him. •Countrywide internet restrictions make it hard to gauge the scale of the unrest, but a prominent Catholic leader said it's "already chaos." Gaza •Israel expanded one of Gaza's humanitarian zones in a token gesture towards meeting the Biden administration's demand to deliver more aid to Gaza or risk losing U.S. military funding. •Biden's national security advisor, Jake Sullivan, seemed to indicate that Biden's ultimatum on Gaza aid was a hollow one and Israel's progress on expanding aid won't be measured against any specific metrics: he told Face the Nation that the White House would evaluate "what sort of progress" Israel has made by tomorrow's deadline and then "make judgments about what we do in response." Iran •Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince MBS condemned Israel for committing "genocide" in Gaza and warned Israel against possible future direct strikes on Iran. •It was the harshest public criticism any Saudi official has made about the war, and perhaps a sign of Saudi's warming consideration for Iran, which sponsors the militants Israel is fighting in Gaza (and Yemen and Lebanon). •Separately, analysts are whispering that Pres. Trump could seek a new deal with Iran once he enters office. Under Pres. Pezeshkian - who is more moderate than his predecessor - Iran could welcome an accord. China •China's military showed off the new, Blackhawk-like Z-20 helicopter at the Zhuhai air show. •Pentagon analysts studied the model while it was being developed, and noted in a recent public report that it "will provide significant improvements in ASW (anti-submarine warfare) capabilities over the smaller... helicopters the PLAN [People's Liberation Army Navy] currently operates." North Korea •Kim Jong Un formally ratified North Korea's Comprehensive Strategic Partnership treaty with Russia last night, per state media. [Russia already ratified it last week, so with Kim's decree and the exchange of signed documents it will take effect.] •The pact formalizes the mutual defense support that North Korea and Russia are already lending each other, but it doesn't bind them to any specific commitments to come to each other's aid if certain red lines are crossed.
Open source reportOff Leash update 30 October Ukraine •The NYT wrote that Pres. Zelensky's failure to win Western support for his victory plan "could lead to a kind of success, allowing the president to show Ukrainians that he has done all he can and to prepare them for the possibility that Ukraine might have to make a deal." That's an interesting spin and could be Zelensky's second-best outcome for a plan that has failed to impress Western allies. •Separately, Ukraine's spies said they intercepted battlefield communications that suggested Russia is struggling to integrate its borrowed North Korean special forces troops. Russian soldiers on the hacked calls complained that they lacked enough commanders to lead the integrated units - or enough ammunition and weapons to arm the new recruits. •The intercepts also revealed that Russia has assigned one translator and three Russian soldiers for every 30 North Koreans joining the war; however, some frustrated calls complained that one translator isn't enough for 30 North Koreans. India •Canada's government escalated its charges that the Indian government was involved in the assassination of a Sikh activist on Canadian soil last year by explicitly accusing India's Minister of Home Affairs, Amit Shah, of orchestrating the hit. •Canada's accusation is especially serious given that Shah is a close ally of PM Modi and widely considered to be the second-most powerful figure in Modi's government. India hasn't responded yet. Iran •New satellite images from Planet Labs suggest that Israel's airstrikes on Iran over the weekend did more damage than Iran let on. Several struck key military sites, including three of the four sites where the IRGC produces missiles (the extent of the damage to each isn't yet clear). •Iran's leaders may have felt compelled to downplay the significance of Israel's assault to mask its defensive shortcomings and justify a tactical decision not to re-retaliate against a stronger enemy. Gaza •Israel and Qatari mediators are reportedly reviewing a proposal to open a month-long truce in exchange for the release of 11-14 hostages - including all remaining women and children in Hamas captivity. That's a slightly bolder proposal than the Egyptian plan currently on the table, but it still stops short of the permanent ceasefire Hamas is thought to be seeking. Libya •Austrian oil company OMV restarted its operations in the Sirte basin a couple weeks ahead of schedule. Libya's NOC - which has been pushing foreign oil firms to resume drilling - cheered the news. Guyana •Guyana's Pres. Ali announced a plan to give every ID-carrying adult citizen of the country a one-time $100,000 cash grant funded by proceeds from offshore oil sales. Guyana has enjoyed the world's fastest year-on-year GDP growth thanks to its oil proceeds. DRC •China's CMOC announced its third-quarter results, and they showed that cobalt production from the company's DRC mines had already surpassed its annual target of 60,000 to 70,000 tons by far: in just the first three quarters of 2024, CMOC produced nearly 85,000 tons of cobalt.
Open source reportOff Leash update 24 Oct North Korea •U.S. intelligence corroborated reports that North Korea is sending soldiers to eastern Russia, but officials stopped short of explicitly concluding that they're training to fight in Ukraine - or perhaps are already fighting in Ukraine (as South Korea and Ukraine credibly allege). •SecDef Austin called the possibility of a North Korean deployment to Ukraine "very, very serious" and cast it as "an indication that [Pres. Putin] may be in even more trouble than most people realize." [Austin continued: "[Putin] went tin-cupping early on to get additional weapons and materials from the DPRK., and then from Iran, and now he’s making a move to get more people."] •North Korea's (alleged) presence in Ukraine could also frustrate China, which has a long friendship with North Korea but wants to be seen as a peacemaker - in opposition to a warmongering West - on the geopolitical stage. The NYT wrote: "The prospect of soldiers from China’s only treaty ally battling Western-backed forces on behalf of one of Beijing’s closest partners undermines that narrative." Turkey •Yesterday, armed attackers stormed the Ankara headquarters of Turkey's national aerospace company, Turkish Aerospace Industries, killing at least five people. The incident was quickly followed by a similar attack on a nearby defense company, Tusaş, that killed four. •Turkey blamed the usual bogeyman, the Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK), and bombed at least 30 PKK-linked "strategic locations" in northern Iraq and Syria. Kurdish officials said Turkey's reprisal airstrikes killed 12 civilians. •The timing was interesting, as Turkey's government has recently been subtly signalling a new willingness to end its 40-year conflict with the PKK. Just a day before the attacks, a far-right party leader allied with Pres. Erdogan publicly suggested that Erdogan could grant the PKK's imprisoned leader, Abdullah Öcalan, parole if he disbanded the PKK and renounced violence. •Öcalan's nephew - who was allowed to visit his uncle in prison for the first time in 43 months on Wednesday, just hours before the Ankara attacks - says Öcalan is open to taking a possible parole-for-peace deal. •That said, some question whether PKK militants would heed Öcalan's call to disband and renounce violence. There's speculation that PKK extremists carried out the Ankara attacks to derail a peace deal. Afghanistan •Taliban Acting Foreign Affairs Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani gave a rare interview with a Western journlist. It was only his second interview with a Western journalist since the Taliban regained power in 2021, and it was with a female journalist (!): the NYT's Afghanistan and Pakistan bureau chief. •Her pair of articles based on this interview and extensive related primary and secondary research and portray Haqqani as a jihadist-turned-diplomat now quietly advocating from within for more moderate policies than hardline Taliban emir Sheikh Haibatullah Akhundzada has decreed. Venezuela •The EU parliament awarded its Sakharov Prize - a prestigious award recognizing dedication to defending human rights and democracy - to Venezuelan opposition figures Maria Corina Machado and Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia. •In awarding the prize, EU parliament president Roberta Metsola reaffirmed the EU legislature's support for the opposition: "This parliament stands with the people of Venezuela and with Maria and Edmundo in their struggle for the democratic future of their country." Mozambique •Mozambique's electoral commission declared Daniel Chapo of the long-ruling Frelimo party the country's president-elect, with 71% of the official vote. •The opposition cried foul, alleging fraud, and a charismatic independent candidate, Venâncio Mondlane, called on supporters to "paralyse the country." [The murder on Saturday of Mr. Mondlane's lawyer - who was preparing a legal appeal of election results - helped fuel suspicions that Frelimo is conspiring against dissenters.]
Open source reportOff Leash update 23 October Hezbollah •Israel confirmed that one of its early October airstrikes on Beirut - analysts believe it was the barrage on Oct. 3 - killed Hashem Safieddine, the cousin and presumed successor to Hassan Nasrallah. •Netanyahu alluded to Safieddine's demise on Oct. 8 when he said Israel had killed "Nasrallah’s replacement, and his replacement’s replacement." •Analysts presume Safieddine was the "replacement," which would mean Israel also believes - though it hasn't confirmed yet - that it has killed Safieddine's replacement. •[I'm not sure who that would be. It's not Naim Qassem, Hezbollah's longtime deputy leader who was initially the rumored successor to Nasrallah: Qassem reportedly fled Lebanon for Iran Oct. 5 after resigning from his position and delivering a shaky recorded speech after Nasrallah's death in which he seemed to feel and fear the target on his back.] •Though leaderless, Hezbollah continued to fire rockets at Tel Aviv for the second consecutive day. Ukraine •South Korea increased its estimate of the number of North Korean troops already fighting for Russia in Ukraine. It now thinks 3,000 North Koreans have arrived on the front lines - of the total 11,000 Pyongyang committed to Russia. •According to a video posted by a Chinese mercenary who's also fighting for Russia in Ukraine, the North Koreans aren't doing very well: the mercenary - who goes by Dian Yuzhan (“prison warden” in Chinese) online - said eight North Korean officers were killed on their very first day of fighting: "goddamn it, they were gone just after entering [the war]." •The Economist noted that while the "erratic and heavily-armed" North Koreans' presence in Ukraine could throw some curveballs for Ukrainian defenders, it's also a sign that Russia has lowered its standards for allies out of desperation: (quoting John Foreman, a former British defense attaché to Russia from 2019-2022) " 'Russia used to look down on North Korea as a pygmy state,' he says. It was the great power 'with Tchaikovsky and Chekhov and ballet…not some bloke with ill-fitting suits in love with artillery and killing people.' " China •Last week, China stoked fears in Taiwan with large-scale military drills in the area, including a simulated blockade. Now it is keeping its threat looming over the island with new live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait. •Separately, India and China said they "reached a solution" over their shared border in the Himalayas, where their soldiers have fought deadly battles with sticks and knives in recent years. •Now with their border tensions deescalated and patrols resumed on both sides of the boundary, Pres. Xi and PM Modi will meet this week on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia. It'll be their first formal bilateral meeting since 2019. •Their broader border dispute remains unresolved, though. This "solution" merely lets both sides maintain their respective (and occasionally mutually exclusive) territorial claims so they can amicably collaborate on initiatives that benefit them both - like trade.
Open source reportOff Leash update 22 October Venezuela •Venezuelan police arrested former oil minister Pedro Tellechea and accused him of sharing key internal documents from state oil company PDVSA with "a company controlled by the US Intelligence Services." •Tellechea had just resigned from his post as Minister of Industry and National Production on Friday, citing health reasons. •He's the fourth Venezuelan oil minister since 2017 - out of five who have served in that time - to be arrested on similar allegations. Russia •Former U.S. Marine Paul Whelan spoke for the first time about his experience in the Russian prison system before his release in a swap this summer. •In an interview with CBS (https://t.co/ao8FzNaObF), Whelan called prison conditions "monotonous and filthy," and said he passed information from fellow prisoners who fought on the front lines in Ukraine along to Western officials using burner phones. •In other news about ex-Russian prisoners, murdered dissident Alexey Navalny's memoirs (titled "Patriot") come out today. The Economist called the book "a passionate and moving testimony to Russia’s extreme violence." Argentina •Argentina's Pres. Milei - who campaigned with a chainsaw symbolizing his pledge to slash the size of the bureaucracy - took another bold step towards that promise by dissolving the country's bloated revenue service, Administración Federal de Ingresos Públicos (AFIP). •Milei announced the creation of a new entity - Agencia de Recaudación y Control Aduanero (ARCA) - to replace AFIP. ARCA's directors will get paid 90% less than AFIP's, while salaries at lower levels of ARCA will see smaller reductions of 30%. Hezbollah and Hamas •SecState Blinken landed in Israel today to try to convince PM Netanyahu's government to agree to a ceasefire and hostage deal now that Israel's Enemy No. 1 - Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar - is dead. That won't be easy: Netanyahu has indicated that he isn't ready to end the war yet. •Israel's army declassified intelligence about one of the targets of its airstrikes aimed at cutting off Hezbollah's funding: a vault with tens of millions of dollars in gold and cash. •It's unclear whether the Israeli airstrikes destroyed that money, but the IDF also said it had not yet targeted a separate vault hidden under a hospital in Beirut that contains much more: "at least half a billion dollars in dollar bills and gold." A spokesman added: "This money could and still can be used to rebuild the state of Lebanon." Iran •Over the weekend, two documents purporting to show Five Eyes-only U.S. intelligence analysis of Israel's possible plans to retaliate on Iran for its ballistic missile barrage were posted on Telegram and then shared widely - especially within Iran. •The fact that the White House said Pres. Biden was "deeply concerned" about the unauthorized release of the files - plus the fact that they were first publicized by a pro-Iran account, Middle East Spectator - suggests the U.S. didn't deliberately leak them and they may have been stolen by hackers instead. •Most foreign airlines have paused flights to Iran in anticipation of Israel's retaliation. DRC •Rwanda-backed M23 rebels captured the North Kivu town of Kalembe, ending a ceasefire signed in August after years of Angolan mediation. Few believed the truce would last as long as it took DRC and the M23 to agree to it. Other News •Moldova confirmed that its referendum on (eventually) joining the EU was approved - though the vote was too close to call yesterday, thanks in part to Russia's meddling to buy 300,000 votes against the measure. Pres. Sandu called the Russian intervention "fraud of an unprecedented scale."
Open source reportOff Leash update 21 October Coming Up This Week •World Bank and IMF annual meetings take place in Washington, DC today through Saturday. Climate change programs are high on the agenda - although rich countries don't want to pay for them and indebted poor countries can't afford to. •Leaders of Commonwealth countries (the UK and most of its ex-colonies - or, roughly, countries that play cricket) meet in Samoa starting today. It's the first biennial Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting that King Charles III will lead. •Russia will host BRICS leaders for the bloc's 16th annual summit in Kazan tomorrow through Thursday. This will be the first opportunity for its new members (Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE) to join the namesake original members (Brazil Russia, India, China, and South Africa) for the meetings. [Saudi has been invited to join the bloc but isn't an official member yet and won't join this year's summit.] The group will discuss the possible future accession of up to 15 new members, including Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. •Uruguay and Japan will both vote on Sunday. A leftist opposition candidate, Yamandú Orsi, leads Uruguay's presidential polls, but not by enough to avoid a runoff. In Japan's snap poll, the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party hopes to recover public trust it lost in recent financial scandals, but it risks losing ground to a divided opposition. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,552/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,100/ton •Cobalt: $23,995/ton •Copper: $9,472/ton •Gold: $2,733/toz - an all-time record high •Lead: $2,034/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.28/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $70.34/barrel •Zinc: $3,082/ton Cuba •Cuba suffered four nationwide electrical grid failures over the weekend. •The energy minister blamed power plant problems, and it's no surprise that the island's outdated plants are failing: Fidel Castro once called them "prehistoric." The eight plants that produce Cuba's electricity are almost 50 years old - nearly twice their useful life - and poorly maintained. •The government seems to expect some blowback over the grid failures: Pres. Diaz-Canel appeared on national television (between blackouts) in fatigues to urge Cubans to express their frustrations peacefully. Middle East •Israel carried out airstrikes against Hezbollah's financial partner, Al-Qard al-Hasan, in Lebanon, and against Hamas in northern Gaza. •Militants in Hezbollah targeted PM Netanyahu's coastal residence, Caesarea, in a drone strike over the weekend. One drone penetrated Israeli air defenses but caused no casualties. Ukraine and Russia •Yulia Navalnaya - the widow of murdered dissident Alexey Navalny - told BBC that she intends to continue her late husband's fight against Pres. Putin: "I will do everything to make his regime fall as soon as possible." •Navalnaya also said she intends to run for president of Russia as soon as Putin is out of the picture (she rationally fears returning to Russia while Putin is still in power because his government - which killed her husband - has accused her of extremism too). •Separately, Ukraine sent hundreds of drones into several regions of Russia overnight. Russia intercepted most of them, but one penetrated Russian air defenses and struck a military explosives manufacturer deep inside Russian territory. •Russia also targeted Kyiv with airstrikes over the weekend. North Korea •South Korea's spy agency studied satellite photos to conclude that at least 1,500 North Korean Special Forces troops are fighting for Russia in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine previously warned that North Korea plans to send up to 10,000 troops to the war. Other News •Moldova voted yesterday on a referendum deeming EU membership a "strategic objective." The outcome is too close to call but slightly tilted in favor of closer ties with (and, eventually, membership in) the EU - despite Russia spending around €100 million supporting the other side.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 9 October Middle East •Hezbollah's deputy leader, Naim Qassem, expressed support for a ceasefire during a televised address yesterday. He didn't mention any conditions - not even the group's longstanding demand for an end to the Gaza war as a precondition for a detente (though Qassem did vaguely vow to continue to stand with Hamas and Palestinians against Israel). •U.S. officials assessed that Qassem's eagerness for a truce shows that Hezbollah is "getting battered" and considering acknowledging defeat. •Separately, Israel targeted a Hezbollah weapons smuggler with an airstrike on a residential building in Damascus's embassy district, killing seven (it's not clear if the target was among those killed). •Israel is still contemplating its options for responding to Iran's (largely-ineffective) ballistic missile strikes last week. PM Netanyahu will speak with Pres. Biden by phone today to discuss Israel's plans. •Iran is girding for a harsh response. Its diplomats have been warning Gulf countries against letting their airspace or military bases be used in an attack on Iran. Mexico •Mexico's new president, AMLO protege Claudia Sheinbaum, unveiled her plan to combat worsening cartel violence yesterday, and analysts were unimpressed. Critics of the plan say it's only a continuation of AMLO's "hugs not bullets" approach that failed to reverse the rise in violence. Russia •It's not just U.S. elections that Russia is seeking to disrupt: the head of the UK's domestic security service (MI5), Ken McCallum, said Russian spies are also trying to "generate mayhem on British and European streets" with acts of "arson, sabotage, and more." •McCallum said over 750 Russian diplomats - "the great majority of them spies" - have been booted from Europe since Russia invaded Ukraine. With its professional troublemakers benched, Moscow then resorted to hiring private operatives and common criminals for its EU missions, McCallum added. He blamed their work for driving a 48% rise in MI5 investigations into state-sponsored operations against the UK in 2023. •McCallum noted that Iran and China are also actively supporting plots in the UK, but not as vigorously as Russia is - and China's operations are primarily focused on targeting dissidents abroad. China •China announced new penalties on European brandy in response to tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) that the EU approved last week. •Beijing argues that EU brandy producers are dumping their tipples in the Chinese market at below-market prices - akin to how China is dumping cheap EVs in the European market at prices lower prices than domestic EV makers can tolerate. •China's new measures are structured in a way that gives the EU a chance to back down on its EV tariffs first: the Ministry of Commerce will temporarily collect deposits of up to 39% on EU brandy imports, but if it makes the penalties permanent then those deposits will be forfeited, effectively becoming tariff payments. •The European Commission plans to challenge China's retaliatory measures at the World Trade Organization. North Korea •Pyongyang announced plans to "permanently" sever road and rail links with South Korea and fortify its border regions. •Road and rail travel between the two Koreas has been cut off for years, so the North's gesture is largely a symbolic indicator that strengthening U.S.-South Korea military collaboration is raising Kim Jong Un's blood pressure. •Separately, Ukrainian media reported that six North Korean soldiers fighting for Russia were killed in a Ukrainian missile strike near Donetsk last week. •South Korea's Defense Minister told parliament that it's "highly likely" that North Korean soldiers are indeed fighting on Russia's side in Ukraine under the mutual defense pact Russia and North Korea signed - though this is still unconfirmed.
Open source reportOff Leash update 25 Sept Middle East •As the dust settled on Israel's strikes in southern and eastern Lebanon, the Lebanese health ministry counted at least 558 dead and 1,645 injured - including 50 women, 94 children, and some first responders. Israel said it was only targeting Hezbollah and accused Hezbollah of using civilians as human shields. •Israel then followed up with an airstrike on southern Beirut that killed a Hezbollah commander involved in the group's rocket attacks. •Then Hezbollah lobbed a ballistic missile at Tel Aviv that Iron Dome intercepted. •Some Israeli hawks want to take advantage of a weakened Hezbollah in disarray and invade southern Lebanon now, while cooler heads - like defense minister Gallant - prefer to give Hezbollah a chance to back down and avoid escalation. •The WSJ warned that a ground invasion "could turn into a quagmire, much like the war in Gaza." Despite Israeli airstrikes, Hezbollah still has a dangerous arsenal of rockets, drones, and antitank missiles; and it continues to smuggle more in. It has also had ample time to fortify a tunnel network of the sort that has bogged Israeli ground troops down in Gaza. •Thousands of people fled the southern and eastern Lebanon in anticipation of further escalation. Ukraine •Ukraine's Pres. Zelensky told the UN Security Council "Russia must be forced into peace" and said he had formed a new "victory plan" that he planned to present to Pres. Biden imminently. •Zelensky also claimed to have evidence showing that Russia is planning to attack Ukraine's three nuclear plants. Venezuela •An Argentine federal court responded to Venezuela's arrest warrant for Argentina's Pres. Milei by ordering the arrest of Pres. Maduro and his top henchman, Diosdado Cabello, for committing crimes against humanity against dissidents. China •China carried out a successful test of an intercontinental ballistic missile, and - unusually - announced it publicly. •The wording of the defense ministry's announcement was nothing special - it said the missile "fell into expected sea areas" and was merely part of a "routine arrangement in our annual training plan" - but the fact that there was an announcement at all suggests an emboldened missile program (it usually conducts tests quietly deep inside its territory and doesn't comment on their outcomes). •Separately, China announced new stimulus measures and interest rate cuts to boost consumer spending and property investment. The central bank had aimed for 5% GDP growth this year, but that now looks ambitious. Afghanistan •Speaking at an event on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, actress Meryl Streep poetically pointed out: "Today in Kabul a female cat has more freedom than a woman. A cat may go sit on her front stoop and feel the sun on her face, she may chase a squirrel in the park... A squirrel has more rights than a girl in Afghanistan today because the public parks have been closed to women and girls by the Taliban. A bird may sing in Kabul, but a girl may not in public." •A Taliban spokesman responded that his fellow officials in fact "highly respected" women and would "never compare them to cats." Libya •A delegation of assistant and deputy U.S. officials visited Libya to show support for Government of National Unity Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah and his eastern rival, Khalifa Haftar, as the two sides try agree on a resolution to their dispute over the central bank's leadership (and management of oil revenues). •Telegram founder Pavel Durov - who faces French criminal charges for complicity in illegal activity by users of the platform - changed his stance and agreed to cooperate with authorities. •He announced in a new Telegram post that the platform has updated its terms and privacy policy to explicitly disclose that "the IP addresses and phone numbers of those who violate our rules can be disclosed to relevant authorities in response to valid legal requests"
Open source reportOff Leash update 19 Sept Middle East •A day after Israel's trojan horse attack remotely detonated thousands of Hezbollah members' pagers across Lebanon, a follow-on attack remotely detonated hundreds of Hezbollah walkie-talkies. The second round of blasts killed at least 20 and injured over 450 (fewer devices exploded but they were larger devices - and thus larger explosions). •The NYT published a great article describing how Israel pulled off the operation: https://t.co/G8tTPgOKLT. •Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant issued a video statement that didn't specifically mention the Lebanon blasts (which Israel hasn't officially acknowledged - and won't acknowledge), but said the military's focus is "moving north" - i.e., towards Hezbollah. •Israel did, however, acknowledge overnight airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, including a weapons depot near Khaim. •Separately, the UN General Assembly (UNGA) overwhelmingly passed a non-binding resolution calling on Israel to end its occupation of Palestinian territories within 12 months. There are no penalties if Israel ignores the order, but the opprobrium adds to Israel's isolation at UNGA. •The Economist said the UNGA vote also "undermines America's weakening clout" at the UN: the U.S. could only rally 12 other countries to join it and Israel in voting against the resolution. Ukraine and Russia •Geolocated footage showed that Russian troops captured the Donetsk town of Ukrainsk. •While Russia continues to make slow progress in Donetsk, Ukraine is trying to stall the Russian advance at its source by striking military bases and weapons depots before they can deploy to the front lines: a new Ukrainian drone attack in Toropets ignited an arms warehouse with a blast so big that Russian state media said the town of Toropets had to be evacuated. •Vox assessed that Ukraine's targeted strikes inside Russia "are likely meant to send a signal to allies that despite the war grinding on, Ukraine isn’t beaten, and that its allies aren’t backing a lost cause." Venezuela •Venezuela's president-elect - who's now in exile in Spain - said Pres. Maduro's Vice President, Delcy Rodriguez, forced him to sign a letter recognizing Maduro's fraudulent victory after "very tense hours of coercion, blackmail and pressure" before he fled the country. •VP Rodriguez's brother Jorge - who teamed up with his sister to force Gonzalez to sign the letter when they visited him at the Spanish Embassy - presented the letter during a televised press conference yesterday. •Jorge Rodriguez then tried to blackmail Gonzalez into recanting his claim that he was blackmailed into signing the letter by threatening to release an audio recording that Rodriguez says will disprove Gonzalez. •Meanwhile, Maduro's Attorney General, Tarek Saab, instructed prosecutors to issue arrest warrants for Argentina's President Javier Milei, the head of Milei's office (who happens to also be his sister), and Argentina's Security Minister. •Venezuela argues that Argentina illegally seized a Venezuelan Emtrasur Cargo Boeing 747-300FM plane in Aug. 2022 - at the request of the U.S. •Argentine-Venezuelan relations are sour - the plane seizure was just a symptom of their enmity - so Milei is highly unlikely to visit Venezuela and expose himself for arrest. •India's far north, majority-Muslim region of Jammu-Kashmir voted in regional elections for the first time in a decade yesterday. Despite a fresh wave of disruptive militant attacks, local leaders are hopeful that the vote will help the region regain some of the political autonomy it lost when the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party stripped it of its statehood in 2019. •The U.S. Federal Reserve cut its main benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point to 4.75-5.00%. That's a bigger cut than the quarter point the market was expecting, which suggests Fed governors are confident that inflation is under control.
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 Sept Syria •Israel targeted a government research institute in Masyaf, Syria, killing at least 18. •Reuters reported that a team of Iranian scientists was working at the institute, which produces short- and long-range missiles and drones that Iran sends to its proxies, including Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. (The facility also produces chemical weapons that Pres. Assad uses on his own people). Israel •A Jordanian gunman killed three Israeli civilian workers at the Allenby Bridge border crossing. Jordan has a vigilant security service and strong security ties with Israel (though many Jordanians sympathize with their Palestinian neighbors), so attacks like this are rare. This was the first one along the Jordanian-Israeli border since Oct. 7. •Meanwhile, Israel targeted a Hamas command that it said was "disguised in the humanitarian area in Khan Younis," killing at least 40. Hamas said the casualties were displaced civilians and denied hiding militants among them. Venezuela •Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado vowed to stay in Venezuela and "take part in the struggle from here" while the candidate she supported in July's election, Edmundo Gonzalez, supports the cause from exile in Spain. •Gonzalez joins a long list of Venezuelan opposition leaders - and even mere sympathizers - driven into exile. The NYT interviewed five others who served as election observers but fled to exile in Colombia after (rightfully) asking questions about election results. •Those that didn't flee are being rounded up in Pres. Maduro's Operation Knock Knock - a nationwide manhunt for people who attended opposition protests or posted pro-opposition content online. Thousands have been arrested so far. China •Foreign direct investment in China hit a record low of negative $14.8 billion in the second quarter. •Perhaps in response, Communist Party leaders removed two industries - publishing and traditional medicine production - from the list of sectors barring foreign investment. There are still 29 industries on the restricted list. Ukraine •Ukraine launched a significant drone attack on Moscow overnight. Russia acknowledged the attack and closed three of Moscow's four airports to activate air defenses that it claims shot down 144 Ukrainian drones. •Ukraine claimed Moscow also launched a reciprocal drone attack on Kyiv. Mexico •Mexico's upper chamber is weighing a controversial constitutional change that will swap 7,000 judges with new, popularly-elected replacements. •The proposal was easily passed in the lower chamber last week, and there are rumors that enough upper chamber swing legislators have swung in favor of the amendment and are ready to pass it. •AMLO is pitching the change as a much-needed judicial reform, but the plan's myriad critics say it will expose judges to stronger political influence from Morena leaders - or worse, from bad actors like drug cartels. Other News •Fresh off local elections that resulted in big gains for the far right - and smarting from two deadly stabbings committed by rejected asylees - Germany said it would expand border patrols and strengthen a "hard line" on illegal migration. •Separately, Australia's government announced plans to ban children from social media - though it didn't confirm where the age cutoff would be.
Open source reportOff Leash update 4 Sept Venezuela •In a bid to distract Venezuelans while he tries to steal the presidency, Pres. Maduro announced that Christmas in Venezuela will take place almost three months early this year, on October 1. •Maduro has pre-poned Christmas twice before - in 2021 and 2023 - both to boost the economy by injecting bonuses for public employees and holiday handouts for supporters. This year's early holiday will bring the added benefit of rewarding loyal supporters for turning a blind eye to his election theft. •Cynical Venezuelans complain that holding Christmas early won't make it any merrier: either way, they can't afford gifts or holiday feasts because of runaway inflation under Maduro's bad economic policies. •The Venezuelan Episcopal Conference also wasn't joyous about the date change: it issued a statement reiterating that "Christmas commences on December 25" and chiding that Jesus's birthday "is not to be used for political or propaganda goals." Ukraine •Russia targeted a Ukrainian military academy and nearby hospital in Poltava, killing at least 51 people - including many cadets. •Poltava is around 100 miles (160 km) from the Russian border, and the supersonic missiles flew so fast that air raid sirens sounded only minutes before the attack, giving cadets and residents insufficient time to reach shelter. Many of those killed were on their way to a shelter when they were struck down. •More Russian missiles struck the city of Lviv on the Polish border overnight, killing at least seven. •Separately, Foreign Minister Kuleba resigned as part of Pres. Zelensky's reshuffle to "strengthen some areas in the government" ahead of "an extremely important autumn." Rumors suggest Kuleba will be replaced by Andriy Sybiha, a career diplomat who's currently the deputy head of Zelensky's office. Gaza •The U.S. Justice Department unsealed indictments charging Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and five other senior Hamas members for a wide range of crimes against American citizens, including - but also predating - the Oct. 7 attacks. •The charges are mostly symbolic - and three of those indicted are already dead anyway - but the indictments would allow the U.S. to put Sinwar and the other two on trial if they survive the war and are apprehended. China •China retaliated against Canada's new tariffs on cheap Chinese electric vehicle (EV) exports by launching a dumping inquiry into Canadian rapeseed (canola), which is a far more important export market for Canada than EVs. Over half of Canada's exported canola goes to China, earning Canada C$5 billion ($3.7 billion) in sales. Ottawa called the probe "deeply concerning." •Separately, New York accused an ex-gubernatorial aide of acting as a foreign agent for China by accepting Chinese money for political favors like denying Taiwanese officials meetings with the governor and other officials. Iraq •U.S. and Iraqi commandos carried out an unusual joint raid on Islamic State militants hiding out in Anbar, killing at least 15 jihadists - including some senior leaders. At least six U.S. soldiers suffered injuries. Libya •Libya's rival legislatures agreed to appoint a mutually agreeable candidate to lead the central bank within 30 days, raising hope for an end to the bank's leadership crisis. •Oil markets are optimistic that they'll resolve their dispute and Libya will start pumping oil again: oil prices fell 4% on weak demand and the prospect of Libyan oil reentering an already-oversupplied market. Other News •Romania, Hungary, Georgia, and Azerbaijan kicked off an ambitious project to lay a power line under the Black Sea to bring energy from Azerbaijan's Caspian wind farms to the EU. •The project was approved in 2022 and became urgent quickly after Russia invaded Ukraine, forcing the EU to seek alternate energy supplies.
Open source reportOff Leash update 29 Aug Venezuela •One of Venezuela's top election officials, Juan Carlos Delpino, directly discredited Pres. Maduro's account of the vote for the first time this week. •Delpino - who is one of two opposition-aligned members of the five-person National Electoral Council (CNE) responsible for organizing elections and certifying their results - told the NYT that his council "had not received any evidence" that Maduro won a majority of the vote, and lamented that the CNE had "failed the country." He spoke from hiding, fearing for his safety. •His fear is reasonable: Maduro's security forces continue to arrest Venezuelans who dare support the opposition. Perkins Rocha - opposition leader Marina Corina Machado's lawyer and close confidante - was among those arrested this week. •With Diosdado Cabello now appointed Minister for the Interior, Justice, and Peace; we can expect the crackdown to worsen: Cabello has previously said that Machado and opposition president-elect Edmundo Gonzalez should be "behind bars." Israel •Hamas said the 10 Palestinians Israel killed in its West Bank operations Tuesday and Wednesday were among its members. •There's a polio outbreak in Gaza, and the UN hopes to innoculate 640,000 Palestinian children with vaccines to stop the spread of the virus - starting this weekend. •Israel reportedly authorized temporary and localized humanitarian pauses in the fighting in Gaza to facilitate vaccinations, but evacuations, displacement, and ongoing fighting will certainly complicate the process. Yemen •Iran says its Houthi proxies in Yemen have agreed to a truce to let rescuers assess the Sounion oil tanker its missiles damaged and set alight. However, the Houthis say they only agreed to allow a tugboat to come tow the ailing - and possibly leaking - Sounion away. Either way, we'll soon learn how big of an environmental risk the damaged tanker is. Ukraine •Ukraine used F-16s to shoot down incoming Russian cruise missiles on Monday, marking the first aerial kills by the new (to Ukraine) jets. •Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Norway have pledged a total of 85 F-16s for Ukraine; because only a few of them have arrived so far, Ukraine is only using the few it has against targets like these cruise missiles that can't shoot back. •Separately, Ukrainian drones targeted the Zenit oil depot deep inside Russia's Kirov region, causing two fires. It's the first time Ukraine has struck Kirov, which is 700 miles (1,125 km) inside Russia. Russia •In response to new U.S. sanctions against Russia, Russia permanently banned 92 U.S. citizens - including journalists, lawyers, professors, and business executives - from entering the country. •Among those banned were 14 WSJ employees, including WSJ editor in chief Emma Tucker. Given the 16 months their colleague Evan Gershkovich spent in Russian jail before he was finally released in a swap last month, I doubt anyone from the WSJ was eager to visit Russia anytime soon anyway. Other News •French authorities charged Telegram founder Pavel Durov with a slew of crimes related to illegal activity others committed on his platform. He was released on bail of €5 million ($5.5 million) and barred from leaving the country. Free speech advocates and tech companies are preturbed that the creator of an online forum can be held liable for crimes others use it to commit.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 23 Aug Ukraine •According to Ukraine's commander-in-chief, Gen. Syrsky, Ukrainian troops have now advanced as far as 35 km into Kursk. •Russia has shifted some troops from Chasiv Yar to defend against the Kursk invasion, but the operation hasn't diverted Russian forces away from Ukrainian front lines as much as Ukraine hoped it would. •Russia still has the upper hand in Pokrovsk, for example, and Ukrainian troops there just withdrew to avoid being encircled. •Last week, German prosecutors issued an arrest warrant for a Ukrainian allegedly involved in the 2022 attacks sabotaging the Nord Stream pipelines. Now German anger at the possibility that Ukraine was behind the attacks is morphing into new scrutiny of German support for Ukraine. •Chancellor Scholz insisted that Germany remains "Ukraine's biggest national supporter in Europe," but his unpopular ruling coalition is facing popular and fiscal pressure to reduce its overall spending - as well as its spending on Ukraine. Venezuela •Venezuela's Supreme Tribunal of Justice - which Pres. Maduro stacked with supporters - unsurprisingly ruled in his favor and certified his fraudulent election victory. •The court said its ruling was based on "national and international experts" and was "supported by the tally reports issued by each of the vote machines" - though the vast majority of "international experts" are certainly not on Maduro's side (save a few Chinese techs that are helping Maduro steal the vote), and neither Maduro nor the court has released any tally reports to support their claims. •The opposition, meanwhile, has released online tallies showing that its candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez, won seven million votes to Maduro's three million. The court said the opposition's tallies were forged. Afghanistan •Afghan women lost their figurative voices when the Taliban took over in 2021; now they're losing their voices in a more literal way - and losing other rights, too. A new 114-page Taliban document now forbids women from talking loudly (even inside their own homes), singing or reading the Koran in public, or merely looking at men they don't know. •The new edict also forbids Afghan men from trimming their beards. •One Afghan former civil servant told The Telegraph: "The international community’s engagement with the Taliban has emboldened them to further suppress women," and that seems plausible. •In a further sign of international engagement with the Taliban, the UAE officially accepted a Taliban ambassador today. That makes the UAE the second country - after China - to legitimize the Taliban government by accepting its ambassador.
Open source reportOff Leash update 12 July Gaza •The Pentagon said it would give up on the floating pier it built off the coast of Gaza to land aid deliveries. •The pier - which cost $230 million to build - received few aid deliveries in its short lifespan - it only operated for about 20 days of the two months since it was first installed - and suffered damage from rough seas on multiple occasions. (Editor's note: this debacle is especially foul for me as before USG blundered in I was asked by a significant NGO to build a logistics and security plan for supply Gaza. The maritime portion for our plan was only $10m and that included buying two landing craft with cranes and a 120meter spud barge that we would have pinned to the beach with large pilings. The LCs would cycle from 13 miles out (outside Gaza/Israeli waters) to offload by crane into barge pinned to beach. Not elegant but sufficient. The consistent fail of "Team America" is embarrassing and must be corrected.) •Meanwhile, Israeli Defense Minister Gallant estimated that Israel has killed 60% of Hamas terrorists in its nine-month war in Gaza. •Gallant also called for an official inquiry into Israel's failures leading up - and responding - to the Oct. 7 attacks, and specifically suggested the inquiry should investigate PM Netanyahu and Gallant himself. Netanyahu has resisted the idea of conducting such an inquiry before the war is over. Russia •U.S. intelligence uncovered a secret Russian plot to assassinate the (civilian) CEO of German weapons manufacturer Rheinmetall because of his company's role producing artillery shells and tanks for Ukraine. •News of the plot outraged German and EU leaders, but Russia dismissed the accusations, saying they lacked "serious documentation" (as *secret* plots often do). •Separately, a Russian-born Australian army private and her husband - also a Russian-born Australian - became the first people arrested under Australia's modernized 2018 espionage laws. Australian prosecutors allege the couple "worked together to access Australian Defence Force material that related to Australia’s national security interests." Sudan •Reports earlier this week suggested Sudan's two warring strongmen - Gen. al Burhan and Hemedti - were close to relaunching peace talks in Jeddah, but Gen. al Burhan seemed to squash that idea with an impossible pre-condition: he wants Hemedti's RSF to fully withdraw from Sudan's cities before talks take place. Sahel •Niger's junta acknowledged that several prisoners escaped from a jail in the restive Tillaberi region known to hold Al Qaeda- and Islamic State-linked jihadists. •It was the first successful jailbreak from this particular facility - although guards repelled two prior attempts in 2016 and 2019. Authorities don't know exactly how many prisoners escaped, but they placed the surrounding area under a strict curfew in an attempt to track down the escapees. Other News •Kenya's Pres. Ruto fired 14 of his 15 cabinet ministers in a belated response to nationwide protests against his government and new taxes it sought to impose (but walked back after they proved unpopular). That may be too little, too late for the protesters, who had demanded Ruto's resignation too.
Open source reportOff Leash update 18 June Russia •Russia's Pres. Putin began an unannounced two-day trip to North Korea today. He's hoping to strengthen his friendship with one of the few world leaders still willing to send him weapons, and Kim Jong Un is hoping Putin will lend Russian assistance to North Korea's nascent satellite surveillance programs. •Both Russia and North Korea deny that they are arms trading, but Putin proclaimed that they are building "alternative mechanisms of trade" that aren't "controlled by the West" (i.e., subject to sanctions). •This was Putin's second trip to North Korea. His first - in 2000 - was the first time a Russian president visited the Hermit Kingdom. North Korea •While strengthening ties with Putin's Russia, Kim has been aggravating tensions with his southern neighbor. South Korean officials say North Korean soldiers have been laying mines and installing anti-tank barriers along the demilitarized border that divides the two Koreas since January. •South Korea reported firing warning shots earlier today to repel 20-30 North Korean soldiers who temporarily crossed over the border while building a barrier. Their incursion seemed accidental and they did not return fire. China •China opened an anti-dumping investigation into EU pork imports that analysts widely see as a retaliation for the EU's new tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs). •Beijing is likely targeting EU pork instead of a perfectly reciprocal levy on EU EVs because a tariff on EU-made EVs would also harm the Chinese brands making cars in Europe. •Meanwhile, the U.S. sided with the Philippines in its latest spat with China over Chinese bullying in the South China Sea. The U.S. called China "aggressive" for seizing two Philippine supply boats after colliding with a third one, and U.S. diplomats reiterated a warning that a 1951 treaty obligates the U.S. to defend the Philippines in case of an armed attack. Ukraine •A Ukrainian drone targeted one of Russia's two oil terminals in the southern port city of Azov, igniting a large fire. Hezbollah •While SecState Blinken tries to keep hope for an Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal alive, another senior U.S. envoy - White House adviser Amos Hochstein - is visiting Lebanon to lobby for an agreement between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah to end their cycle of tit-for-tack strikes over the border. •Hezbollah has linked its strikes to Israel's war in Gaza, so it would be unlikely to agree to a truce before the Gaza war ends.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 13 June Ukraine •G7 leaders are reportedly close to agreeing on a compromise that would lend Ukraine around $50 billion now to rebuild destroyed infrastructure - and repay the loan over time using interest from frozen Russian funds. Ukraine will need much more than $50 billion to rebuild. •As part of its fundraising efforts, Ukraine announced a new plan to auction off around 20 state-owned companies - including the landmark Hotel Ukraine in Kyiv, as well as some mining and chemical companies. The proceeds would plug some of the gaping hole in Ukraine's budget. Russia •Russia responded to new U.S. sanctions by announcing an immediate ban on trading in dollars or euros on its main bourse, the Moscow Exchange (MOEX). •The ban won't really matter because most MOEX traders have already switched from dollars or euros to Chinese yuan. As one Russian commodities trader told Reuters: "We don't care [about the ban], we have yuan. Getting dollars and euros in Russia is practically impossible." •Meanwhile, four Russian navy vessels arrived in Havana harbour, in what the BBC called "a show of force amid tensions with the West over the war in Ukraine." Cuban officials were quick to clarify that none of the boats have any weapons aboard. The U.S. is monitoring them anyway. China •After an EU investigation concluded that government subsidies give Chinese electric vehicle (EV) makers an unfair competitive advantage over European manufacturers, the EU proposed a plan to level the playing field by imposing new tariffs of up to 38% on cheap Chinese EV imports. •China decried the EU's decision and urged the bloc to reverse its "wrong direction" on tariffs, but the reality is that Chinese EVs are so much cheaper than EU competitors that even a 38% tariff won't make up the difference: in 1H 2023, the average retail price of a Chinese EV was $33,000 vs. $70,700 in Europe. •[U.S. 1H 2023 EV prices were roughly in line with the EU's at $72,000, and the U.S. has since slapped a stiffer, 100% tariff on imported Chinese EVs.] Yemen •Yemen's Houthis used a "drone boat" - along with aerial drones and ballistic missiles - to attack a Liberian-flagged, Greek-owned bulk carrier, the Tutor. The Tutor's captain later reported that "the vessel is taking on water, and not under command of the crew" after a second impact. DRC •DRC's new government - including its first-ever female prime minister - was sworn in yesterday after months of delays due to disagreements over appointments. South Africa •South Africa's top court rejected an appeal by ex-Pres. Zuma's new MK party that sought to stop Zuma's former African National Congress (ANC) party - and his political rival, Pres. Ramaphosa - from forming a government. •According to preliminary indications, the Democratic Alliance (DA) and Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) have already agreed to join the ANC's national unity government, bringing it over the majority it needed. •That government is expected to re-elect Pres. Ramaphosa tomorrow. Other News •The NYT reported that Saudi Arabia is on the verge of approving a plan to invest up to $2 billion in a hostile takeover of the disorganized array of global professional men's boxing promoters and sanctioning bodies. •The consultant-advised plan would see today's confused tangle of boxing organizations brought together under a single entity representing around 200 top male boxers in a model similar to that of the UFC, which has steadily stolen fightsport fans away from boxing.
Open source reportOff Leash update 12 June Hezbollah •An Israeli strike in southern Lebanon killed four Hezbollah commanders, including a very senior one, Taleb Abdallah (aka Abu Taleb). Hezbollah then retaliated by firing a barrage of around 150 rockets into northern Israel. •The NYT assessed that Israel's strikes in Lebanon are designed to push Hezbollah back across the Litani river so that its rockets are farther out of striking range - and so that over 150,000 displaced civilians can eventually populate a buffer zone at the border. Gaza •Hamas submitted a formal response to the U.S.-pitched (but Israeli-originated) ceasefire proposal, and SecState Blinken - who has been shuttling around the Middle East trying to rally support for the plan - exasperatedly acknowledged that some of the changes Hamas demanded in its response were not "workable." •Hamas and a smaller Gazan militant group aligned with Hamas (Palestinian Islamic Jihad) said they were prepared to "deal positively to arrive at an agreement," but Blinken's unmasked disappointment with Hamas's response suggests there's still a big gap between the two sides. •Israel hasn't formally accepted the proposal either, but SecState Blinken said PM Netanyahu had privately "reaffirmed his commitment to the proposal" on Monday. Netanyahu prefers to stall and see if Hamas kills the proposal first - rather than risk losing his right-wing coalition partners by signing a deal Hamas won't accept anyway. •Separately, an independent UN investigation found both Israel and Hamas guilty of committing war crimes, and additionally accused Israel of crimes against humanity for killing tens of thousands of civilians (who Hamas militants are using as human shields). Israel responded to the report by accusing its authors of "systematic anti-Israel discrimination." Ukraine •Ukraine used replenished stocks of anti-aircraft missiles to intercept 29 of the 30 incoming missiles and drones Russia fired across the border overnight. That's a much better success rate than Ukraine was able to achieve when it had to ration dwindling air defense supplies. •Pres. Zelensky boasted that this high success rate could be a "daily achievement" if Western partners send more air defense supplies. •On that note, the U.S. said it would send Ukraine a second Patriot missile system. This one will come from Poland after the U.S. troops it's currently protecting there rotate back home in the coming weeks. Haiti •Haiti's new interim prime minister, Garry Conille, appointed a new cabinet, ousting most of the ministers from former PM Henry's ineffective government. South Africa •Former president Zuma's upstart uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party is seeking to spoil the election in which his former African National Congress (ANC) party lost its majority. •MK filed formal objections alleging widespread irregularities in the poll - without offering any evidence to support its claim - and filed legal papers to block the ANC from convening its first parliamentary session on Friday. •Zuma's appeals are unlikely to reverse election results, but they may hinder the ANC's progress forming a national unity government. That may be Zuma's real goal anyway: Zuma despises his successor and bitter rival, Pres. Ramaphosa, and would be pleased to see the ANC struggle to re-elect Ramaphosa. Other News •Malawi's president confirmed that his vice president, Saulos Chilima, was killed in a plane crash along with nine others. The crash was attributed to bad weather. •A fire broke out in a dilapidated and overcrowded building housing migrant workers in southern Kuwait, killing at least 41. Deputy PM Sheikh Fahad Yusuf Saud Al-Sabah criticized "the greed of real estate owners" who chose to skimp on proper maintenance and safety measures.
Open source reportOff Leash update 11 June Gaza •The UN Security Council (UNSC) passed a U.S.-backed resolution supporting the latest Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal, with Russia abstaining instead of blocking the vote with a veto. The UNSC's support is symbolically important because it conveys broad international backing for a deal, but ultimately only Israel and Hamas can sign off on this deal. •To that end, SecState Blinken is on his eighth trip since Oct. 7 to the Middle East with a straightforward message for the foreign leaders he'll meeting with: "If you want a ceasefire, press Hamas to say, yes." •Blinken is portraying Hamas's assent as the only remaining obstacle to a ceasefire deal, but Israel hasn't agreed to the current terms yet, either. •It's true that the current terms were originally conceived by Israel before Pres. Biden leaked them to the media (on a Friday night after Israel's ultra-orthodox - who oppose offering Hamas any concessions - had powered off their phones for the sabbath), but PM Netanyahu will have a hard time selling the deal to his most conservative supporters, who have threatened to abandon his fragile coalition if he fails to destroy Hamas. •Meanwhile, NBC News reported that the U.S. is considering a separate bilateral deal with Hamas to release five American hostages. It's not clear what the U.S. would offer Hamas in return. Ukraine •Ukraine claimed it successfully destroyed one of Russia's ~14 remaining Sukhoi Su-57 fighter jets in a drone strike on the Akhtubinsk airfield inside Russia. Initial reports suggest Ukraine used its own drones in the strike - not advanced Western weapons it recently got permission to use inside Russia. •Separately, an investigation by BBC Russia and Mediazona found that over 19,500 Wagner mercenaries died in the "Bakhmut meat grinder" between Jan. 2022 and Aug. 2023. That's consistent with the "over 20,000" men that Wagner's late founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said he lost in the grueling battle for the town. •The new report said over 17,000 of the men Wagner lost in Bakhmut were former prisoners that Pres. Putin pardoned in exchange for their commitment to fight. Yemen •Yemen's Houthi rebels said they interrupted an "American-Israeli spy cell" after arresting around 12 UN personnel and staff of a U.S.-funded pro-democracy group, the National Democratic Institute. U.S., Israeli, and UN officials declined to comment. Afghanistan •Russia's foreign ministry said it's considering removing the Taliban from its list of terrorist organizations in order to facilitate dialogue on "issues such as drug trafficking, terrorism, and organized crime." •Delisting could be the first step towards recognizing the Taliban government. [Russia - which lost global allies after invading Ukraine and is eager for international friends - would be the first country to officially recognize the Taliban government.] Other News •A plane carrying Malawi's vice president, a former first lady, and eight others went missing in bad weather. Pres. Chakwera said authorities are searching through thick brush with "every fiber of hope that we will find survivors."
Open source reportOff Leash Update 6 June Gaza •Israel and Hamas are reportedly still far from agreement on the terms of the latest U.S. ceasefire proposal. Indirect talks continue in Qatar. •Meanwhile, Israel launched a new operation against Hamas in Bureij and Deir al Balah, central Gaza. Israeli forces are hunting Hamas militants "above and below ground," including at a site that Israel says was a Hamas compound hidden in a school. Gaza's health ministry claimed Israel's strike on the school killed 27 people seeking shelter there - not Hamas militants. •A NYT investigation found that Israel planned and funded an ongoing social media campaign to influence U.S. lawmakers to support the war in Gaza by planting pro-war posts by fake "American" users. •Israel's campaign was among the AI-based influence operations Meta and OpenAI recently said had targeted their platforms over the past six months [Russia, Iran, and China also ran similar campaigns.] Both companies said none of the foreign influence campaigns had a widespread impact. Russia •Pres. Putin lashed out at Western countries - especially Germany - for allowing Ukraine to use their donated weapons to strike targets inside Russia. •The U.S. and UK have also given Russia permission to use their weapons to strike Russia, although the U.S. only ok'ed strikes on Russian regions near Kharkiv. •He warned that Russia would reciprocate in kind: "If someone thinks it possible to send such weapons to a war zone to strike our territory and create problems for us, then why do we not have the right to send our weapons of the same class to those regions of the world where strikes can be made on sensitive facilities of the countries that do this against Russia?" •[I would note that Russia was the first to use foreign-supplied weapons in cross-border attacks: it uses North Korean missiles and Iranian drones in Ukraine.] •I highly doubt Russia would consider direct strikes on German, American, or British soil because of the risk of igniting WWIII. Rather, Putin will probably try to target Western assets or personnel in Ukraine. Iran •The UN's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) voted 20-2 (with 12 abstentions) to approve a resolution rebuking Iran for refusing to give IAEA inspectors access to its nuclear sites. •The two no votes were cast by Russia - which buys Iranian drones to use in Ukraine - and China - which circumvents sanctions to buy cheap Iranian oil. •The IAEA censure resolution isn't enforceable, but the fact that 20 countries voted to approve it may add a tiny bit of political pressure on Iran to cooperate with inspectors. (Unlikely) Venezuela •Pres. Maduro uninvited European Union observers from monitoring his farcical July 28 presidential election on hyperbolic grounds that EU compliance with "genocidal sanctions" on Venezuela is "interventionist." •The EU hadn't accepted Maduro's invitation anyway. •Plus, observers don't need to fly to Venezuela to conclude that the election won't be fair: Maduro is already manipulating the vote by bullying the opposition and blocking its strongest candidates from running against him. Other News •A lone gunman wearing a vest labeled "Islamic State" in Arabic and "IS" in English opened fire near the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon. He was quickly shot and arrested. Islamic State hasn't officially claimed the attack yet.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 3 June Coming Up This Week •Results from India's six-week election are due tomorrow. Exit polls show a comfortable lead for PM Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) party, despite challenges from a newly-united opposition calling for a fairer distribution of power and economic opportunities. •Russia has invited friendly countries - including China and India, but also North Korea and Taliban Afghanistan - for the St. Petersburg International Forum Wednesday through Saturday. •Thursday (June 6) is the 80th anniversary of the D-Day landings. •EU countries vote for the bloc's parliament Thursday through Sunday. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,653/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $21,250/ton •Cobalt: $27,150/ton •Copper: $10,040/ton •Gold: $2,330/toz •Lead: $2,273/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.71/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $76.72/barrel •Zinc: $2,970/ton South Africa •South Africa released official election results on Saturday, confirming that the ruling African National Congress (ANC) party lost its majority for the first time since Nelson Mandela led it to victory in 1994. •The ANC, which won 40.2% of the vote, now has two weeks to form a coalition, but its factions disagree on which opposition party to bring into a coalition. •Pragmatic voices favor the business-friendly Democratic Alliance (DA), which won 21.8% of the vote and would easily bring the ANC over the 50% mark for a majority. •Former ANC president Zuma's upstart uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party won - some would say spoiled - 14.6% of the vote, and thus could also bring the ANC over the 50% mark; however, Zuma has a bitter history with many in the ANC, including Pres. Ramaphosa. •The Marxist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), which won 9.5% of the vote, wouldn't bring enough votes to get the ANC's coalition to 50% by itself: the ANC would need to bring a third minor party in, too. Mexico •Climate scientist Claudia Sheinbaum won enough votes in yesterday's Mexican presidential election that poll officials are already calling the poll in her favor. •Sheinbaum is part of Pres. AMLO's Morena party - which may have won a two-thirds super-majority yesterday - and a mentee of AMLO, but she hasn't been vocal about whether she plans to continue his populist policies or change course to try to fix the economic woes that worsened under his rule. Gaza •Pres. Biden shared a new ceasefire proposal with Israel, forcing PM Netanyahu to make a tough decision: if he accepts a deal for peace in Gaza, he'll secure the release of Hamas's hostages - but risk losing the hard-right support that his government needs to stay in power. •Nonetheless, the White House said it has "every expectation" that Netanyahu will accept the proposal if Hamas does (Hamas hasn't officially responded yet). •The three phases of the tabled proposal are: oFirst phase: A six-week ceasefire would see Israel withdraw from major Gazan cities and let displaced Gazans return to the north; Israel would release hundreds of jailed Palestinians and allow aid flows to resume. In return, Hamas would also observe the ceasefire and would release some (elderly, female, and wounded) hostages. oSecond phase: Israel would completely withdraw from Gaza to honor a permanent ceasefire (the proposal doesn't answer the hard question of who would run Gaza after Israel withdraws). Hamas would release all living prisoners, including male soldiers, and Israel would release more prisoners. oThird phase: Hamas would return the remains of dead hostages and kick off a three- to five-year reconstruction period. North Korea •South Korea was displeased at the trash- and excrement-filled balloons North Korea floated over their shared border last week, and said it would scrap a 2018 agreement it signed with its northern neighbor to ease tensions. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 28 May Gaza •Israel is facing heat for its strike in Rafah that successfully targeted two senior Hamas militants - but apparently also ignited a fire that killed at least 45 displaced Palestinians sheltering in a tented camp near the site of the strike. Israel blamed Hamas for hiding high-ranking leaders behind civilians. The UN Security Council will meet in a closed session today to discuss the incident. •Separately, Egyptian and Israeli soldiers exchanged fire on the Egypt-Gaza border yesterday. Egyptian eyewitnesses told Reuters an Egyptian guard fired at the Israeli troops first - after watching them chase and kill some Palestinians on the other side of the border. North Korea •North Korea attempted to launch a second spy satellite, but the rocket carrying it exploded shortly after launch. •The timing of the attempted launch was peculiar because it coincided with a trilateral meeting between China, Japan, and South Korea; and must have distracted from their summit. North Korea usually avoids inconveniencing China, its top ally. •Pyongyang blamed the rocket's failure on the new liquid oxygen-petroleum engine it employed, which analysts say suggests Russia may have supplied or advised North Korea (Russia is a global leader in liquid oxygen-fuel technologies). Afghanistan •A senior Russian diplomat told the state-run TASS news agency that his government is considering removing the Taliban from its list of terrorist organizations, and could then consider formally recognizing the Taliban government. •That would be the second of two recent moves to embrace the Taliban: the first was inviting Taliban delegates to the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum early next month. •Russia doesn't have many friends these days, which is perhaps why it's willing to embrace unsavory company like the Taliban. Sahel •The EU announced that it would be following the U.S.'s example and ending its Military Partnership Mission in Niger early - rather than continuing to work with an uncooperative junta that is cozying up to Russia. The EU's mission was supposed to run through Dec. 2025; instead, it will wrap up at the end of June 2024. Other News •The government of Papua New Guinea belatedly ordered thousands of people to evacuate the path of the landslides that have already buried an estimated 2,000 people - and are still actively blanketing more terrain.
Open source reportOff Leash update 17 May Ukraine •Russia's rapid recent advances have Ukraine and its allies worried, and a senior U.S. military official hinted - for the first time - that NATO will probably eventually send military trainers to Ukraine to support its defense directly: "we'll get there eventually." •Deploying U.S. or NATO troops to Ukraine would not only put NATO trainers at risk on the battlefields; it would also raise the risk of turning Russia's war on Ukraine into a broader Russia vs. NATO war. •Though Ukraine is struggling to repel Russian advances in the north, it carried out two days of successful drone strikes on Sevastopol in occupied Crimea. Satellite images showed at least three destroyed Russian jets and significant damage to buildings, including a power substation. Russia •Pres. Putin finished his two-day trip to China with a visit to Harbin, a northeastern Chinese city with strong Russian ties where China carries out some of its most advanced defense research. •Putin's trip seemed to go well, and he'll probably benefit from some of the defense technologies developed at the research centers he visited in Harbin. Pres. Xi even hugged him goodbye in a rare show of affection between the two uncuddly leaders. Gaza •Israel is sending more ground troops to support its invasion of Rafah, which started out as a limited incursion to avoid crossing the "red lines" Pres. Biden set. Even with added troops in Rafah, Israel will still likely stay clear of any real "red lines" that could jeopardize U.S. weapons shipments. •Aid shipments began arriving in Gaza via the new, U.S.-built pier that opened this week. CentCom was careful to clarify that no U.S. troops went ashore in Gaza during or after the construction of the pier. •The Arab League met in Manama and called for a return to pre-1967 borders and the deployment of a new UN peacekeeping force in "the occupied Palestinian territories" (Gaza and the West Bank). •A UN spokesman responded that it would be premature to send peacekeepers to Gaza now: "there first has to be a peace to keep." North Korea •Kim Jong Un's influential sister, Kim Yo Jong, denied that North Korea has supplied any weapons to Russia, calling suggestions otherwise "the most absurd paradox." •The U.S. and South Korea disagree: they believe North Korea has sent Russia artillery, missiles, and other conventional weapons; and some analysts think North Korea's recent short-range missile tests were demonstrations of weapons it planned to sell to Russia. Mozambique •Human Rights Watch reported that some of the perpetrators of Al Shabaab's May 10 attack in Cabo Delgado were child soldiers as young as 13, suggesting the Islamic State-aligned terrorist group (which is unrelated to Somalia's Al Shabaab except in name and violent inclination) is getting desperate for new recruits. •It's a war crime to recruit and employ child soldiers - but groups like Al Shabaab aren't exactly upstanding defenders of the UN Optional Protocol to the Convention on the Rights of the Child. Other News •Billionaire data privacy defender Frank McCourt said he was amassing a group of investors to offer to buy TikTok from its Chinese parent company. •McCourt sees the acquisition as an opportunity to "create the alternative to the current internet, which has been colonized by large platforms," and envisions a new scenario where users can "control their identity, [and] own and control their data." Note: he should have just invested in https://t.co/fvHOU3SWuy
Open source reportOff Leash update May 7 Gaza •Hamas said it has accepted the terms of a ceasefire proposal from Egypt and Hamas that could stop the fighting - at least temporarily. •The terms of the proposal aren't yet public, but the NYT reported that experts say it has only "minor word changes" from the one Israel recently offered. However, other reports suggest PM Netanyahu has already rejected the proposal Hamas accepted as "far from Israel's basic requirements." •The U.S. is pushing Israel to consider the proposal on the table and hold off on sending ground troops into Rafah, but the clock is winding down: Israel's War Cabinet approved the ground invasion of Rafah unanimously, and prospects for a deal will dim after that begins, since Hamas has threatened to walk away from talks once it starts. •Families of the remaining hostages are also pleading with Israel to accept a deal instead of invading Rafah: some of them are blocking highways in Ayalon to make their demands heard. •Separately, Israeli police raided the local offices of Al Jazeera after Israel's parliament ordered the network to cease operations in the country on national security grounds. Al Jazeera defiantly called the raid a "criminal action" and continued to criticize Israel's war in Gaza. North Korea •The Economist reported that North Koreans were asked to swear their loyalty to Kim Jong Un during a ceremony on Jan. 8 celebrating Kim's 40th birthday. Analysts think the loyalty oaths were designed to solidify Kim's grip on power by boosting his cult of popularity. Ukraine and Russia •Russia said it would hold new military exercises near Ukraine to practice for the possible future use of "tactical" battlefield nuclear weapons. •Pres. Putin has consistently denied - including as recently as March - that he's ever considered using tactical nukes, so these exercises seem like provocative bluster in reaction to recent escalating rhetoric from Western leaders like France's Pres. Macron, who refused to rule out sending French troops to Ukraine (though he most likely would never do so), and top UK diplomat David Cameron, who said Ukraine is free to use weapons from the UK to strike targets inside Russia. •Separately, Russia detained a U.S. Army soldier in Vladivostok on charges of criminal misconduct. U.S. military personnel are strongly discouraged against travel to Russia because of the risk of detentions like this. Libya •Royal Jordanian and Qatar Airways will resume flights to Libya's Tripoli International Airport this month after a long hiatus, and Saudi Airlines is in talks to start servicing Tripoli routes, too. That seems like a good sign of stabilization in Libya - though it took longer than planned to revitalize Tripoli's airport due to cost overruns.
Open source reportOff Leash update 2 May Gaza and Israel •Speaking in Tel Aviv, SecState Blinken told reporters the U.S. "cannot, will not, support a major military operation in Rafah absent an effective plan to make sure that civilians are not harmed — and no, we’ve not seen such a plan." •He also nudged Hamas to accept the peace deal currently on the table, which would trade 33 hostages for a six-week ceasefire and some Palestinian prisoners. •Hamas officials told Lebanese media they're "negative" on the current proposal but willing to keep talking as long as Israel doesn't start its Rafah operation. •Separately, Colombia's leftist president, Gustavo Petro, severed diplomatic ties with Israel over its war in Gaza and called the Israeli government "genocidal." Colombia is the third American country to cut ties with Israel: Bolivia and Belize did so in November. Russia •The U.S. accused Russia of using the chemical choking agent chloropicrin on the battlefield in Ukraine, which would be a violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention. Russia called the allegations "baseless." China •The U.S. slapped sanctions on almost 300 companies and groups - including around 20 in China and Hong Kong - that it accuses of supplying Russia's war in Ukraine. China complained about the "illegal unilateral sanctions," which both SecState Blinken and Treasury Secretary Yellen had warned Beijing were coming. •The Solomon Islands solidified its loyalty to China by electing another pro-China prime minister, Jeremiah Manele. Manele was foreign minister when the Pacific nation switched its diplomatic allegiance from Taiwan to China, and has pledged to strengthen the country's opaque security pact with China as PM. •A highway in Guangdong collapsed after heavy rainfall, killing at least 48 people. Pres. Xi ordered local authorities to respond to the disaster quickly to save lives and ensure "overall social stability" - lest residents complain about a weak governmental response. Afghanistan •The Special Inspector General for the Reconstruction of Afghanistan's latest report said Islamic State-Khorasan is leveraging instability in Afghanistan to ramp up its recruitment there, and warned that the group's "resurgence" could lead to more attacks abroad - like its assault on a Russian concert hall in March and its bombing in Iran in January, which both killed over 100.
Open source reportOff Leash update 1 May Russia •Finland's national airline, Finnair, reported that some of its recent flights were interrupted because of radar jams hear the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. •Russia seems to be responsible for the jams, but - as The Economist explains - its interference is probably more defensive than nefarious: Kaliningrad is heavily militarized, and the jams are probably designed to scramble Ukrainian attack drones targeting Russian military sites there. Gaza •SecState Blinken will meet PM Netanyahu and other top Israeli officials today, and is expected to press them to speed up aid shipments to Gaza. •Blinken and other diplomats have been encouraging Israel to stall its ground invasion of Rafah to improve odds for a ceasefire deal, but Netanyahu reaffirmed that the Rafah operation will go ahead "with or without" a deal. •Separately, the UN's International Court of Justice rejected Nicaragua's case against Germany for shipping weapons to Israel. China •China's latest and most advanced aircraft carrier, the Fujian, left the Jiangnan Shipyard for its first sea trials. Following the trials, the 80,000-ton Fujian will become the third carrier in China's fleet, after the 66,000-ton Shandong and the 60,000-ton Liaoning. Haiti •Haiti's new transitional council selected little-known former sports minister Fritz Bélizaire to be the country's new interim prime minister as it tries to root out gangs and establish a stable government. •Bélizaire replaced Michel Patrick Boisvert, who became interim PM only last week when the council formally took over from ousted (and unelected) PM Henry. •Bélizaire may not last long either: he only won the support of four of the council's nine members, and the other five indicated they didn't know him well enough to appoint him. DRC •UN peacekeepers ended operations in South Kivu for good this week, leaving MONUSCO active in only North Kivu and Ituri provinces - which are currently facing worse violence than South Kivu. By the end of the year, the UN's longest and costliest peacekeeping mission will fully wind down and exit DRC. Sahel •Mali said its forces - along with Tuareg fighters - killed Islamic State commander Abu Huzeifa (aka Higgo), who planned the 2017 attack that killed four U.S. troops in Tongo Tongo, Niger. •The operation took place in Liptako, which is where the porous borders of three junta-run countries - Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger - meet. •Its success is a strategic win for the three juntas, who recently banded together (with Russian support) to form the anti-extremist Alliance of Sahel States after they were evicted from the regional ECOWAS bloc following their coups. Sudan •Amidst the looming spectre of a second genocide in Darfur, the U.S. asked the UAE and other allies to stop arming the Rapid Support Forces. (The UAE insists it "is not supplying any arms or ammunition to any faction engaged in the ongoing conflict in Sudan," but evidence suggests it actually is.) Yemen •Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels claimed a drone strike on a container ship in the Red Sea on Friday, and yesterday authorities confirmed their claim. •The ship they struck was the Portuguese-flagged MSC Orion, and this was their longest-range confirmed strike yet: it occurred around 375 miles (600 km) off the coast of Yemen. •The Orion sustained only minor damage and continued its voyage. Afghanistan •Islamic State (IS) claimed Monday's attack at a Shia mosque in Herat that killed six, including the imam. IS is the main instigator of anti-Shia attacks in Afghanistan, so its claim wasn't a surprise. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash Update 26 April Gaza •The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers began building a floating pier off the coast of Gaza to facilitate aid deliveries by circumventing delays delivering aid by land routes. It will take a few weeks to finish the pier, which will be able to receive up to two million meals per day. •The additional food aid will be most welcome in northern Gaza, where the UN's Integrated Food Security Phase Classification initiative is anticipating only its third ever classified famine in Gaza by late May (the first two were in 2011 in parts of Somalia, and in 2017 in South Sudan). •Gazan health officials said they discovered more bodies in a mass grave on the site of a hospital, bringing the total number of bodies unearthed there to 392. Israeli officials rejected suggestions that Israeli troops were responsible for the victims' deaths. •Separately, local media reported that Israel is now willing to accept the release of just 20 hostages - down from 40 - in exchange for a temporary ceasefire deal. The report is unconfirmed, and other citations say 33 is the minimum number of hostages Israel would accept for a deal. •Meanwhile, Pres. Biden and 17 other world leaders are trying a very different approach: asking Hamas nicely to release all remaining hostages. Haiti •Haiti installed a new transitional council, and PM Henry formally resigned in absentia - as he'd promised to do once the council was in place. •The gunshots that rang out in the background as council members took their oaths of office offered a preview of the tough task that lies ahead of them: the council has a deadline of February 2026 to organize elections and inaugurate a new president, but rampant gang violence threatens to derail their work. Sahel •The U.S. is withdrawing the ~75 Army Special Operations troops it has stationed in Chad after Chad's government asked them to leave. •The U.S. and Chad were in the process of renegotiating their security cooperation terms - and U.S. officials still hold out hope that talks will continue on May 6 - but Chad wanted better terms than the U.S. could apparently offer it. •Russia has been making rival security deals with other Sahel countries (including Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso) lately, and may be talking to Chad now, too. Iran •Iran sentenced Toomaj Salehi - a rebellious rapper - to death for "spreading corruption on earth" by making music that celebrated antigovernment protests. Salehi plans to appeal. Yemen •A UK Royal Navy destroyer downed a Houthi ballistic missile targeting a commercial ship in the Red Sea, marking the first time since the Gulf War that a UK ship-launched anti-air missile successfully intercepted an adversary's missile mid-air. South Sudan •According to Bloomberg, a little-known (and poorly acronymed) Emirati company - Hamad Bin Khalifa Department of Projects (HBKDOP) - struck a deal to lend South Sudan 12 billion euros ($12.9 billion) in exchange for future oil production. •The huge size of the deal means HBKDOP could receive essentially all of South Sudan's oil flows as repayments. Other News •Extreme rains caused heavy flooding in east Africa, and at least 200 people have died in the deluge. Tanzania, Kenya, and Burundi were the hardest hit.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 19 April Israel and Iran •Israel launched at least one missile - and perhaps some drones - into Iran, and Iran's air defenses were heard in Isfahan and Tabriz provinces. •Iran said its air defenses successfully downed some Israeli drones, but explosions heard near Isfahan suggested they may have missed others. •Isfahan is where one of Iran's main nuclear enrichment and missile facilities is located, but Israel had assured the U.S. before the strike that it wouldn't target nuclear facilities. Indeed, Iranian officials told the NYT the Isfahan strikes hit a military air base instead. •Israeli media say the intent was to have the last word without inflicting such a black eye that Iran's hardliners will demand re-re-retaliation. •Separately, the U.S. vetoed a UN Security Council resolution that would have brought a vote on Palestinian statehood to the full General Assembly, where it probably would've passed (around 140 countries of the 193 UN member states have already recognized Palestine to some degree). •U.S. Deputy Ambassador to the UN explained afterwards that the veto "does not reflect opposition to Palestinian statehood but instead is an acknowledgment that it will only come from direct negotiations between the parties." Russia •Germany arrested two men suspected of plotting with Russia to sabotage military facilities - including Grafenwoehr, where U.S. soldiers carry out M1 Abrams tank training with Ukrainian troops. •Separately - though perhaps linked to the same foreign intelligence handlers - Poland arrested one of its nationals for allegedly spying for Russia as part of an early plot to assassinate Ukraine's Pres. Zelensky. Polish police say the suspect "proactively established contact" with Russia. Venezuela •Though the U.S. allowed a six-month license permitting Venezuelan oil sales to expire yesterday, U.S. companies doing business in the Venezuelan oil sector will have 45 days to wind down their sales, and the exceptional license granted to Chevron (which is currently producing about 90,000 barrels per day in Venezuela) may even remain valid after that. •Pres. Maduro called the U.S. action (or rather, inaction on renewing license 44) a "grave error" and part of a "blackmail threat" [to blackmail him into holding free and fair elections?]. Other News •Kenya's military chief, Gen. Francis Ogolla, died along with nine other senior Kenyan military officials in an apparently accidental helicopter crash about 250 miles (400 km) northwest of Nairobi. Two survived, including the pilot. •Voting in the world's largest democracy - India - began today. PM Modi is sure to win reelection, but the strength of his win will be seen as a gauge of support for his policies - especially on the economy. The election runs through June 1.
Open source reportOff Leash update 16 April Israel •More details are emerging about Iran's drone and missile attack against Israel over the weekend. •Iran aimed to launch over 170 armed drones, roughly 120 ballistic missiles, and around 30 cruise missiles at Israel. •An estimated half of the ballistic missiles failed on the launch pad or on their own in flight before Israel, the U.S., the UK, France, or Jordan had a chance to intercept them. According to U.S. and Israeli officials, only five of the ballistic missiles entered Israeli territory, and none of the drones or cruise missiles did. •The WSJ published a great account of how the U.S. meticulously organized the multinational coalition that successfully defended the attack in its first live battle test. •Saudi Arabia subtly acknowledged - via an official government post citing an unnamed "source" within the royal family - that it contributed intelligence to the international effort to intercept Iran's barrage, and justified its involvement in the interest of regional stability. [Saudi also blames Iran for inciting Hamas's Oct. 7 attack that set back Saudi-Israel rapprochement, so it likely welcomed the chance to build trust with Israel by spoiling its archrival's plans.] •Israel vowed a response to Iran "at the time that we choose," and Western countries are urging restraint - as they did on Iran when Iran was weighing its options. •Separately, Hamas shared a ceasefire counterproposal with Israel via mediators. In this version, Hamas offered to release about 20 hostages - and only after Israel pauses military operations in Gaza for six weeks, lets northern Gazans return home, and frees Palestinian prisoners - including those serving life sentences for more serious crimes. The counterproposal isn't getting much press; it's not clear if Israel will give it serious consideration. Ukraine •Some Ukrainians were apparently feeling abandoned watching the U.S., UK, and France directly intervene in Israel's defense while only supporting their war against Russia at arm's length. •In contrast to the roughly 320 projectiles Iran launched at Israel, Russia launched aroud 130 Shahed drones, 80 missiles, and 700 guided bombs at Ukraine in the last week alone - per Pres. Zelensky, who coolly observed: "the world has everything necessary to stop any missiles, Shahed drones, and other forms of terror." Sudan •Donors at yesterday's Paris conference committed €2 billion ($2.1 billion) in aid for Sudan's wartime humanitarian crisis. That's almost twice the fundraising goal, but the UN says Sudan and its neighbors who are hosting Sudanese refugees need more than twice the amount raised. •The UN didn't offer detail on the proposed allocation for the €2 billion raised, but said it would help "respond to the most urgent needs." Sahel •Russia isn't the only power swooping in to replace Western influence in junta-led Niger: China's state-owned CNPC signed a $400 million memorandum of understanding with the junta to sell crude oil from Agadem oilfield via an export pipeline to Cotonou, Benin that a CNPC subsidiary is building. •The junta's Minister of Economy and Finance launded the lucrative arrangement: "China is a great friend to Niger; we can never say it enough."
Open source reportOff Leash Update 4/9 Gaza Turkey lodged a form of protest over Israel's war in Gaza by enacting new restrictions on exports of 54 military items to Israel. The move was partly a response to Israel's opposition to Turkish aid airdrops in Gaza, but also an acknowledgement of rising public anger over the war, which was in full view when thousands of Turks turned out to demonstrate against Israel over the weekend. The leaders of France, Egypt, and Jordan also put Israel on notice: they warned of "dangerous consequences" if Israel proceeds with its planned ground invasion of Rafah. Israel seems to be moving forward with the Rafah invasion anyway: today PM Netanyahu announced that a date had been set for the operation (though he didn't share that date with the media). Hamas still hasn't officially responded to Israel's latest ceasefire proposal, but its leaders said the plan failed to meet any of their demands. They plan to deliver a formal response to mediators in the coming days. Separately, Israel issued a warning to Iran, which is weighing its options for retaliating against last week's Israeli strike that killed seven of its military officials in Damascus last week. Israel warned that it would strike nuclear facilities in Iran if Iran attacks targets within Israel. Some analysts are guessing that Iran will instead focus on Israeli-linked targets (like embassies) in a third country. Russia Six northern European countries - Belgium, Britain, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, and Norway - signed an agreement to work together to protect underwater infrastructure (e.g. telecom and power cables and gas pipes) from sabotage by "hostile actors." Russia is the main threat they're concerned about - and the main suspect in last year's attacks on the Nord Stream pipeline. Libya According to new reports, PM Dbeibah's government has hired the U.S. security contracting firm Amentum to train his 444th, 111th, and 166th Brigades, with a goal of bringing divergent factions together and hardening Libya's borders. The U.S. State Department apparently condones the program: it's coordinating with Amentum. Afghanistan The Taliban's acting telecoms minister confirmed to ToloNews that his government plans to ban access to Facebook from Afghanistan. Human rights groups condemned the news. Other News March's global temperatures broke seasonal heat records for the tenth month in a row: the El Niño weather cycle is exacerbating a long-term upward trend in temperatures due to greenhouse gas emissions.
Open source reportOff Leash update 8 April Yesterday marked the 30-year anniversary of the start of Rwanda's 100-day genocide. President Kagame - who is running for re-election in July - commemorated the occasion with a ceremony celebrating the country's progress under his leadership since then. A total solar eclipse will cross the U.S. from Texas to Maine this afternoon. A map here shows the total eclipse path and partial eclipse gradients. Pres. Biden is hosting a trilateral summit with Japan's PM Kashido and Pres. Marcos Jr. of the Philippines Wednesday. They're expected to discuss maritime cooperation to counter China's influence in the South China Sea. South Korea votes in parliamentary elections on Wednesday. Pres. Yoon isn't up for election, but his party's performance in the vote will be a sign of his own popularity. Commodity Prices Aluminum: $2,451/ton Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $13,450/ton Cobalt: $28,550/ton Copper: $9,330/ton Gold: $2,339/toz Lead: $2,124/ton Natural Gas (Nymex): $1.79/MMbtu WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $86.31/barrel Zinc: $2,639/ton Gaza Israel said it withdrew a division of ground troops from Khan Younis and southern Gaza "to recuperate and prepare for future operations," and Palestinians returned to the rubbled city. Some analysts suggested that the "future operations" part could portend a ground invasion of Rafah, which Israel has been planning for months. Meanwhile, Israel carried out another airstrike in southern Lebanon, killing the commander of Hezbollah's Radwan Brigade, which Israel blames for firing rockets into its northern villages. Separately, the International Court of Justice began hearing Nicaragua's case against Germany over German military and financial aid for Israel. Nicaragua argues that Germany's support has "contributed to the commission of genocide" in Gaza. Finally, Egypt's Al Qahera reported cautious optimism that Israel and Hamas had agreed on basic points in their ongoing ceasefire talks in Cairo. However, Hamas corrected that report by saying talks were still stalled. Iran U.S. officials expect Iran to launch a "significant" retaliatory attack in revenge for Israel's strike that killed seven Iranian military officers in Damascus. Some suggested Iran could strike either within Israel or against U.S. or Israeli facilities (like embassies) in other countries. To me, a direct strike on Israel seems unlikely, since it would be a disproportionate and dangerous escalation that Israel would force Israel to respond similarly. It also seems unlikely that Iran would pull the U.S. into the fray with an attack on a U.S. facility. Pres. Raisi's chief of staff even wrote to Washington warning the U.S. to "step aside" and avoid involvement so it doesn't "get dragged into Netanyahu's trap." It's more likely that Iran will find a way to retaliate with a limited and targeted operation against a specific Israeli target that placates its hardliners who are demanding action but avoids angering Israel into re-retaliating. Ukraine The International Atomic Energy Agency said Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station - which has been under Russian control since Feb. 2022 - sustained damage yesterday from drone attacks that damaged its reactor and killed one person. Russia accused Ukraine of "nuclear terrorism," but Ukraine insists it wasn't involved and instead suggested Russia was responsible - though it's unclear why Russia would strike a nuclear plant it controls. Ecuador stormed the Mexican Embassy in Quito to arrest Jorge Glas, a former Ecuadorian vice president who took refuge in the compound in December to avoid a prison sentence for corruption. Mexico was offended by the affront and promptly cut diplomatic ties with Ecuador. NYT analysts pointed out that Ecuadorian president Daniel Noboa likely calculated that arresting Glas would boost his sagging approval ratings ahead of an election next year.
Open source reportOff Leash 2 April Update Iran Israel carried out a brazen strike on Iran's consulate in Damascus, Syria, killing seven Iranian military advisors - including three generals. Israel acknowledged the strike but rejected the notion that the building was a diplomatic facility and said it was a military building instead. The distinction is important because - as one NGO director noted - targeting a known diplomatic building would be "akin to targeting Iran on its own soil." Israel seems to be escalating its covert war on Iranian targets in a manner calculated to hinder Iran's offensive operations without drawing it and its proxies into all-out war. Indeed, Iran's response to the Damascus strikes was cautious: Tehran vowed revenge "at the appropriate time and place." Its proxies were more audacious in their revenge threats: the head of the Iraq-based, Iran-backed Hezbollah Brigades militia threatened to arm over 12,000 Jordanians to exact retribution on Israel for the Damascus strike. Israel and Gaza Israel's Knesset passed a law that will allow PM Netanyahu to temporarily block foreign media outlets from operating in the country on national security grounds, and Netanyahu said he will promptly use the new law to ban Al Jazeera, which he has accused of being "a Hamas mouthpiece" and a "terrorist channel" for its sympathetic coverage of Palestinian causes. The White House called the looming ban "concerning" for its challenge to the free press. Separately, the NGO World Central Kitchen (WCK) said an Israeli airstrike killed seven of its foreign national aid workers in Gaza. Israel said it was "carrying out an in-depth examination" of the "tragic incident," and it's already drawing criticism from the aid community. Ukraine and Russia Ukraine launched a drone assault on an oil refinery deep inside Russia in Tatarstan, which is over 600 miles (1,000 km) from the Ukrainian border. Local authorities said the attack caused minimal damage but later conceded several people were injured. China Chinese electronics firm Xiaomi rolled out its new, Porsche-looking Super Ultra 7 (SU7) electric vehicle yesterday, and surprised the market with 90,000 orders for it on the first day - even though it launched in a market already crowded with inexpensive competitors. Xiaomi shares rose 16% on news of its strong first day of sales, raising the firm's enterprise value above that of traditional automakers GM and Ford. DRC Pres. Tshisekedi appointed Judith Suminwa Tuluka to be DRC's first female prime minister. Tuluka was formerly DRC's planning minister, and will now be called upon to craft a plan to bring peace to the restive east of the country. North Korea North Korea fired a suspected intermediate-range ballistic missile into the sea off its east coast early this morning - its third this year. The UN is no longer monitoring the sanctions violations that helped supply North Korea with kit for building missiles like this, thanks to a recent Russian veto on a motion to extend the monitoring program. Some analysts linked Russia's veto to an alleged weapons procurement agreement between Moscow and Pyongyang.
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