Widening maritime risks, possible Iran front, and disputed DRC mine deaths

Off Leash update 5 March

IRAN •A U.S. Navy submarine sank Iran's IRIS Dena off the coast of Sri Lanka yesterday, marking the first time since 1982 (Argentine Cruiser Belgrano) that a sub-fired torpedo sunk an enemy ship. Sri Lanka's navy rescued 32 Iranian sailors and recovered 87 bodies from the IRIS Dena, which SecDef Hegseth called Iran's "prize warship." Another 60 who were aboard the frigate are still missing. •Iran vowed retaliation, and state media claimed that its navy carried out that threat this morning when it hit a U.S. tanker in the northern Persian Gulf with a missile, causing a fire and an oil spill. That report remains unconfirmed. •Pres. Trump floated the idea of providing affordable insurance for shipping lines transiting the Strait of Hormuz, in an effort to reopen oil supply chains. One-third of seaborne crude and one-fifth of global gas pass through the Strait daily. Several marine insurers are reportedly in talks with the White House about possible facilities. •In another indication that the war is far from over, there are few signs of the defections within the regime or the popular movements organizing to overthrow it that Israel hoped would materialize once its airstrikes delivered the first blows. •Instead, U.S.-allied Iranian Kurdish forces in Iraq are preparing for a possible ground incursion into the north - perhaps in coordination with Israel's Mossad and the U.S. CIA. •Analysts suggest that the new front could distract and draw out some Iranian forces, but doubt it could topple the regime. Iran preemptively targeted the Kurdish force's headquarters in northern Iraq.

UKRAINE •Russia blamed Ukraine for sinking a liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker carrying about 61,000 tons of LNG in the eastern Mediterranean on Tuesday. •The Kremlin claimed that Ukrainian forces launched "uncrewed sea drones" from the Libyan coast at the Arctic Metagaz tanker, which appears to have been part of its shadow fleet transporting sanctioned oil. •Meanwhile, Pres. Zelensky said that U.S.-Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks will resume as soon as the situation in the Middle East permits U.S. attention to shift elsewhere.

CHINA •China's rubber-stamp parliament, the National People's Congress, set the country's 2026 GDP growth target at 4.5-5.0% yesterday, marking the first time in over 30 years that Beijing has aimed for less than 5% growth. •Citing an analyst, the NYT noted that "the lower target signals that [Beijing] is willing to tolerate slower near-term growth while it focuses on longer-term structural fixes."

DRC •Congolese authorities reported that a landslide at DRC's Rubaya coltan mine killed at least 200 artisanal miners, including around 70 children. •The M23 - which controls Rubaya - disputed Kinshasa's official account, saying that it was government "bombings" - not a landslide - that caused the mine to collapse, and claiming that "simply about five" people died - not 200. •[Notably, the M23 didn't dispute that a landslide was the cause of a nearly-identical disaster in late January that killed roughly the same number as the government says died this time.]