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59 direct mentions across 59 briefings, with 92 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
Ukrainian strikes destroyed goods valued at approximately $1 billion at Wildberries facilities in Krasnodar and Stavropol. Small sellers lost inventory and that Wildberries plans limited compensation and stronger warehouse defenses.
Unverified development · updated through
Ukrainian strikes destroyed goods valued at approximately $1 billion at Wildberries facilities in Krasnodar and Stavropol. Small sellers lost inventory and that Wildberries plans limited compensation and stronger warehouse defenses.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Ukraine dossier
68 mapped developments across 10 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Tatarstan
Ukraine conducted a drone attack against an oil refinery in Tatarstan, more than 1,000 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. Local authorities described the damage as minimal and acknowledged that several people were injured.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 23 July 2026 UKRAINE •Ukraine struck two more warehouses belonging to Russia's largest retailer, Wildberries, in Krasnodar and Stavropol, destroying an estimated $1 billion in goods. •Pres. Zelensky has justified the strikes with (probably correct) claims that Wildberries sells goods like commercial drones that Russian soldiers are weaponizing against Ukraine, but by targeting a storefront that sells to almost half of Russia's population and sustains at least half a million small businesses that sell on the platform, Zelensky is also achieving his goal of "bringing the war back home" to Russia. •Many small-scale sellers reported losing their entire inventory, leaving them without a way to repay the high-interest rate loans they used to buy the destroyed stock. •Wildberries - likely at the Kremlin's instruction - said it would compensate some of its "most vulnerable" sellers for their losses. It will also need to invest in rebuilding its warehouses with better defenses against future attacks, now that Ukraine has seen how effective its strikes have been. SAUDI ARABIA •As anticipated, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia signed a deal yesterday allowing Saudi to build a civilian nuclear program using American technology and know-how. •Congress must review it before it goes into effect, and it has some critics in Congress who worry about nuclear proliferation. •The NYT astutely observed that the Saudi deal was missing two of the key safeguards against nuclear proliferation that bound a similar deal the U.S. struck with the UAE in 2009: an explicit commitment not to make nuclear fuel, and permission for IAEA inspectors to carry out inspections on short notice and with a wide remit. •The Saudis reportedly refused both provisions. Analysts say the possibility that Saudi could make its own nuclear fuel raises the risk that it could divert its nuclear resources towards a weapons program. [Crown Prince MBS has already said he would build nuclear weapons if Iran does.] •Some also suggested that Iran might see the lax deal the U.S. allowed Saudi to get away with and raise its expectations for what a possible U.S.-Iran nuclear deal could permit. YEMEN •Yemen's Houthi rebels struck two Saudi Arabian oil tankers in the Red Sea yesterday, making good on their threats to enforce a "maritime embargo" on Saudi Arabia. •They also claimed to have forced "10 ships to retreat and return," and shipping data confirmed that at least six vessels reversed course in the Red Sea since the Houthis announced their blockade on Monday. •U.S. SecState Rubio warned the Houthis against getting involved in their benefactor's war, but they're unlikely to heed his warning. VENEZUELA •The Financial Times estimated that the U.S. has received $13 billion in revenue from its sales of Venezuelan oil this year, but called out that only $3 billion of the proceeds has been remitted to Caracas in a transparent way. The Trump administration's critics are calling on the White House to explain where the other $10 billion is. AI •OpenAI divulged that two of its frontier models went rogue during testing and successfully hacked a digital library belonging to another company - Hugging Face - without being prompted to do so. •The incident served to validate concerns that the latest AI models are advancing beyond a level that humans can comprehend well enough to control, and could expose new cybersecurity vulnerabilities faster than humans can patch them.
Open source reportOff Leash update 20 July 2026 COMING UP THIS WEEK •Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burhnam is set to become the next British prime minister today. •Tomorrow, Lebanon's Pres. Aoun will become the first Lebanese president in almost 20 years to visit the White House. •The Commonwealth Games start Thursday in Glasgow, and Comic-Con runs from Thursday through Sunday in San Diego, California. •On Friday, Pres. Trump will attend a rescheduled White House Press correspondents' dinner. Security will be tight to prevent another incident like the shooting that derailed the first dinner. •The 113th Tour de France ends Sunday on the Champs-Élysées in Paris. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,151/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $35,176/ton •Bitcoin: $64,220 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $13,526/ton •Ethereum: $1,863 •Gold: $4,021/toz •Lead: $1,883/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.86/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $82.74/barrel •Zinc: $3,526/ton IRAN •Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) said that two oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz via the southern route Iran has called "unsafe" and warned ships not to use were - passive voice intentional - "exploded and were forced to cease movement." The IRGC didn't explicitly say it fired on the imperiled tankers, but nobody else is striking ships along the southern route that the U.S. Navy is trying to secure. •At least three U.S. soldiers were killed in combat over the weekend: two died in an Iranian missile attack on a U.S. base in Jordan that left another serviceman missing, and one died during a botched operation to defuse a downed Iranian drone in northern Iraq. •U.S. SecState Rubio says the U.S. is still open to negotiating with Iran, and there are limited signs of ongoing diplomacy. But discreet peace talks are getting much less airtime than the nine straight nights of airstrikes the U.S. has carried out on Iranian infrastructure (and Iran's retaliatory attacks on regional allies of the U.S.). •The NYT, citing analysts, warned that infrastructure strikes and U.S. casualties represent an escalation that could prove hard to walk back from. YEMEN •Indeed, Iran reportedly called on its proxy in Yemen, the Houthis, to help ignite a regional conflict by closing the Bab al Mandeb maritime chokepoint if the U.S. strikes Iran's power grid. •The Houthis recently reopened a long-frozen conflict with Saudi Arabia, and seem ready to join their sponsor's side in a regional war. LEBANON •Lebanon's Pres. Aoun will use his meeting with Pres. Trump tomorrow to seek Trump's help pressuring Israel to make good on its commitment to withdraw from two "pilot zones" in southern Lebanon so the Lebanese Army can assume control of them. •That's the first step in a U.S.-backed agreement signed June 26 to end fighting between Israel and Hezbollah. Aoun will then want further U.S. (and international - but not Israeli) help to disarm Hezbollah. UKRAINE •Ukraine struck two warehouses belonging to the Russian online retailer Wildberries. Pres. Zelensky said the warehouses were being used to "supply sanctioned components for drone production and navigation equipment." •They're also symbolic targets for Ukraine's efforts to disrupt daily Russian life and bring the war home to Russians, whose president has sought to isolate them from the effects of the conflict. •Russia responded with one of the largest bombardments yet on Kyiv. The Russian barrage is likely to amplify Zelensky's calls for more Patriot missiles to defend against future such strikes. UK •Andy Burnham - who will become the UK's next prime minister today . •He faces tough challenges governing at the national level. He'll want to maintain good ties with the U.S. and Pres. Trump, make plans to revive Britain's sluggish economy, and ease a fractious debate about immigration.
Open source reportOff Leash update 9 July 2026 IRAN •The U.S. and Iran traded strikes for a second day. The U.S. has struck at least 170 military targets in Iran in the latest flare-up, while Iran said it targeted U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. •Pres. Trump declared the temporary ceasefire "over," but a return to full-scale conflict is probably the worst of his all-bad options. •He could choose peace, but any ceasefire deal Iran would agree to would be on its terms, leaving Trump with nothing to show for the estimated $113 billion that U.S. taxpayers have spent on the war so far. Trump is more likely to choose an awkward middle option, with a fragile peace punctuated by occasional skirmishes like this week's. •Iran's leaders are conflicted, too. Relative moderates like Pres. Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi favor negotiating peace, but hardliners are blocking their path. This week, supporters of a hardline faction physically attacked Pezeshkian and Araghchi while shouting "death to the appeasers." •Separately, the NYT reported that the masses mourning former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei were not entirely orchestrated by the government. Many Iranians the visiting journalists interviewed "had come voluntarily to express their grief and, above all, their defiance," and blamed the U.S. and Israel - as opposed to their own repressive leaders - for a war that has made their lives harder. [At least that's what the reporters heard from the Iranians they were allowed to interview through government-provided translators.] UKRAINE •After meeting Pres. Zelensky on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Turkey, Pres. Trump announced that he'd agreed to let Ukraine make its own Patriot missiles. That would make Ukraine the third country - after Germany and Japan - licensed to make Patriots outside the U.S. [Germany is actively producing them; Japan has yet to exercise its license.] •Bloomberg pointed out that it will still take years - and lots of help from one of the two U.S. contractors that make Patriots, RTX and Lockheed Martin - for Ukraine to get a production line up and running. •Lockheed Martin estimates that it will take four years to triple its Patriot production capacity in the U.S., and construction time is likely to stretch far longer under Russian fire in Ukraine. That's why some experts suggested building Ukraine's Patriot factory under NATO's security shield in Poland instead. TRADE •Speaking at the NATO summit in Turkey, Pres. Trump threatened to cut off trade with Spain and its 50 million "hopeless, bad people." •Trump was overall very pleased with the NATO summit and the "tremendous love" he felt there, but he's mad at Spain's leaders for repeatedly refusing his demands to raise military spending and - more recently - refusing to let the U.S. use Spain's bases to support Trump's war in Iran. •It will be hard for the U.S. to make good on Trump's threat. First, the European Union negotiates trade matters as a bloc, and the entire bloc could retaliate against trade actions targeting one of its members. In addition, the U.S. sells more to Spain than it buys from it, so severing trade ties would harm U.S. exporters more than Spanish ones.
Open source reportOff Leash update 2 July 2026 UKRAINE •The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a U.S.-based thinktank, published a new analysis estimating casualties from Russia's nearly four-and-a-half years of war in Ukraine. •CSIS estimates that Ukraine has suffered 525,000 to 625,000 losses, including 125,000 to 150,000 deaths, while Russia has lost 1.4 million troops, including 450,000 killed in action (which CSIS notes is "more than four times greater than all U.S. fatalities in all wars combined since World War II, and more than nine times greater than all Soviet and Russian fatalities in all wars combined since World War II"). •CSIS also points out that the relative casualty rates have shifted dramatically in Ukraine's favor lately. While Russia lost two to three soldiers for every Ukrainian casualty for much of the war, this year it has suffered eight casualties for every one it inflicted on Ukraine. CSIS attributes the shift to Ukraine's intensified use of advanced drones, including some with AI-enabled targeting. IRAN •Qatar reported "positive progress" in indirect talks it mediated between the U.S. and Iran, but it sounds like all they really agreed on was to keep talking about the issues they still disagree on, like nuclear restrictions on Iran. •Talks are now on hold until after Iran concludes funeral ceremonies for former supreme leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed in a U.S. airstrike on February 28. •Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf - Iran's parliament speaker and lead negotiator - called for a large turnout for Khamenei's funeral spectacle "so the world knows that the noble and honorable nation of Iran will not stay silent in the face of oppression and arrogance." He also called on the U.S. and Israel to "to avoid any miscalculations" during the processions. LIBYA •U.S. State Department officials hosted visitors from two of Libya's rival governments last week: Lt. Gen. Saddam Haftar of the eastern Libyan National Army (LNA) met with SecState Rubio, and the Deputy Defense Minister of the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU) met Deputy SecState Landau (along with Pres. Trump's Special Advisor, Massad Boulos, and AFRICOM Deputy Commander Lt. Gen. Brennan). •The Atlantic Council pointed out the optics of giving the leader of an armed faction an audience with the Secretary of State but snubbing the long over stayed UN anointed representative of an "interim government." •Moreover, The Atlantic Council suggests that entertaining the LNA's claims to power "formaliz[es] the families and patronage networks that already dominate" Libyan politics and "turns managed instability into a formal settlement." TRADE •Yesterday was the deadline to renew the U.S.-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trilateral trade agreement, and - as anticipated - the U.S. opted not to lock in another 16-year term. Instead, the three neighbors will review the deal annually, giving them an opportunity to renegotiate key parts of the pact. •Pres. Trump has turned particularly critical of the deal, which he signed during his first term and once called "the fairest, most balanced, and beneficial trade agreement we have ever signed into law." He has since taken a tougher stance on trade and now hopes to squeeze more concessions from Canada and Mexico to close the U.S. trade deficit with its neighbors.
Open source reportOff Leash update 29 June 2026 COMING UP THIS WEEK •Leaders from the Latin American trading bloc Mercosur meet tomorrow in Paraguay. They're expected to formally announce an economic partnership with Japan. •Tomorrow is the "deadline" that anti-immigrant groups gave undocumented immigrants to leave South Africa. There's growing concern that the protests the agitators planned for tomorrow could turn violent. •Canada celebrates Canada Day on Wednesday. •Saturday marks the semiquincentennial (250th anniversary) of the adoption of the U.S. Declaration of Independence. •The Tour de France starts Saturday in Spain. The 113th edition of the cycling race features 21 stages covering 3,300 km (2,050 miles) over 23 days. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,180/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $35,022/ton •Bitcoin: $59,983 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $13,358/ton •Ethereum: $1,579 •Gold: $4,064/toz •Lead: $1,904/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.27/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $69.85/barrel •Zinc: $3,472/ton RUSSIA •Pres. Putin conceded that Ukraine's long-range drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure "are creating problems," adding, "that's obvious." •It was the first time Putin directly acknowledged that Ukrainian strikes have caused "a certain shortage" in Russia's fuel supplies, but he insisted the situation was "not critical." •The shortage appears to be critical enough to motivate Russia to consider importing gasoline from abroad, though: media reports suggest the Kremlin is already seeking fuel imports from Kazakhstan and India. AFGHANISTAN •Pakistan carried out another round of cross-border airstrikes targeting alleged Pakistani Taliban hideouts in Afghanistan. •Afghanistan's Taliban government, as usual, said the strikes killed only civilians and complained about Pakistan's violations of its sovereignty and airspace. •The Pakistani strikes were a retaliation for - among other incidents - a militant attack the day before on the Karachi regional headquarters of the paramilitary Pakistan Rangers that killed three soldiers and was claimed by Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, a breakaway faction of the Pakistani Taliban. •Pakistan accuses the Afghan Taliban of supporting and sheltering the Pakistani Taliban and other militant groups carrying out attacks inside Pakistan, but Islamabad's real issue is that the attacks reveal its inability to defend its territory. Kabul is a convenient scapegoat to blame its internal failures on. SERBIA •Serbia's Pres. Aleksandar Vucic gave in to 18 months of student-led protests against his government and said he would step down within weeks. •However, Vucic's resignation failed to quell the protests or satisfy his critics, who - with good reason - believe he's only superficially stepping down and intends to stay in power behind the scenes. Indeed, he gave no clear timeline for elections to replace him, and said he would "help" his ruling Serbian Progressive Party in the next election. •Analysts believe his plan is to resign from the mostly-ceremonial presidency only to seek to return to the more powerful role of prime minister, which he held from 2014 to 2017. VENEZUELA •Bloomberg reported that Venezuela's popular exiled opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado, is trying to return to her country as soon as possible, in light of the disastrous earthquakes that struck last week. •Analysts suggest Machado wants to be waiting in the wings to rally her many supporters behind a bid to challenge interim President Delcy Rodriguez if Rodriguez's government bungles its disaster response. •The U.S. - which installed Rodriguez in her post after capturing her predecessor, Nicolas Maduro - reportedly denied Machado's request for help returning to Venezuela this week, with one U.S. official calling it a "political stunt." The U.S. likely prefers she bide her time and let Rodriguez's government focus on relief efforts instead of political rivalry. IRAN •The U.S. and Iran traded retaliatory strikes over the weekend before agreeing to "stand down for now" - conveniently just in time for U.S. market open. (Iran didn't confirm the detente but appears likely to uphold it.) •The NYT wrote that the four-day flare-up was part of a "necessary gambit" for Iran to assert its control over the Strait of Hormuz so it can retain leverage over the U.S. in ongoing negotiations for a final peace deal. LEBANON •Israel and Lebanon agreed to a framework for a peace deal, but didn't share details. •U.S. SecState Rubio - who helped mediate the proto-agreement - described it as only the first step in "what will be a difficult journey." The main point of the accord is to secure Lebanon's help in containing Hezbollah, which was not part of the deal and swiftly condemned it.
Open source reportOff Leash update 24 June 2026 IRAN •Kpler, a data firm, reported that 109 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz between Saturday and Monday. That's the most in a three-day period since the war began, but still far below the average daily pre-war rate of ~130 per day. •Iran does not appear to be restricting transits through the Strait - as it had threatened to do until all the conditions of its 60-day peace deal with the U.S. are met. Rather, shipping traffic seems constrained by the fact that vessels are avoiding the main central route through the Strait because of mines Iran laid in it. •The central route's closure is forcing ships through one of two alternate routes: a northern one that passes through Iranian waters, and a southern one that skirts Oman. •Iran has ordered all ships to use the northern route (and to request permission first), but many vessels seem to be flouting Iran's directive and taking the southern route under the watch of U.S. Navy vessels overseeing the area. AFGHANISTAN •The EU hosted a delegation from Afghanistan's Taliban government for the first time since the Taliban returned to power in 2021. •The meeting agenda was fairly innocuous - they talked about resuming consular services for Afghans in Europe and "the need for trust-building measures" to pave the way for EU countries to send failed Afghan asylum-seekers back - but the mere fact that the EU dignified a repressive regime with a meeting didn't sit well with rights groups. VENEZUELA •Venezuela is preparing to restructure its debt so it can reach a deal with its patient creditors and eventually re-enter international financial markets. •One of the first steps towards restructuring is to tally the total debt in question. Venezuela's government plans to reveal its outstanding borrowings in the coming weeks, and the Financial Times reported that the total figure is going to be a massive $240 billion. That's much higher than the $150-200 billion analysts expected and would make for the largest sovereign restructuring in history. •Caracas also plans to release a broader macroeconomic report that reportedly estimates its GDP at just $100 billion, compared to $370 billion in 2012. That puts its debt-to-GDP ratio at a highly unsustainable level of 240%. Caracas likely hopes that shocking figure will help convince its creditors to write down the debt they're owed. RUSSIA AND UKRAINE •Ukraine's long-range strikes on Russian refineries have had such a severe impact on fuel supplies that Moscow is reportedly considering importing gasoline from abroad - and subsidizing it to soften the pain of higher prices for Russian consumers and companies. •A related Ukrainian campaign aims to cut off Russian-occupied Crimea's fuel supplies by targeting transport and shipping routes between the peninsula and mainland Russia. The resulting fuel shortages are squeezing Crimea's economy and choking off its important tourism sector: one tour company told RBC that 80% of its June bookings were cancelled. •Raising the cost of the war for Moscow was precisely the goal behind Kyiv's long-range strikes on Russia and Crimea, which Pres. Zelensky calls "long-range sanctions."
Open source reportOff Leash update 19 June 2026 IRAN •The U.S. and Iran were due to start negotiating a final peace agreement today, but abruptly cancelled talks. •Axios reported that Iran called off the summit as a consequence of Israel's continued strikes on southern Lebanon. Iran considers Israel's fresh strikes to be a violation of the first point of the text of the memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran - the text of which was released Wednesday. •Pres. Trump is getting a lot of flak for the contents of that text. The NYT called it "basically a list of concessions to Iran with little - if anything - concrete to show for it on the U.S. side." •More unusually, the text even drew criticism from some hawkish Republicans like Sen. Bill Cassidy - who called it "the worst foreign policy blunder in decades" - and Sen. Roger Wicker - who chairs the Armed Forces Committee and fumed that the deal offers Iran juicy rewards like sanctions relief and cash "in exchange for Iran’s mere agreement to negotiate for another 60 days." •Such a resoundingly negative reaction makes me wonder if Trump will also get cold feet about moving forward with negotiations for a final peace agreement. •[Trump's team claims the text was deliberately left short and sweet so Iran's hardliners could agree to it; they say Iran agreed to tougher and more explicit commitments in back-channel talks.] UK •Popular Manchester mayor Andy Burnham easily won a key special election yesterday. The win was pivotal for Burnham because it gives him a seat in Parliament - which is a necessary requirement for being able to challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer for the leadership of the Labour Party, and thus the premiership. •Burnham stands a good chance of beating Starmer, who is deeply unpopular even within his own party and polls as the least popular British Prime Minister on record. UKRAINE AND RUSSIA •Ukraine launched another round of long-range strikes deep inside Russia yesterday, including its largest attack yet on Moscow. Pres. Zelensky said it was retaliation for Russia's strike on a historic monastery in Kyiv earlier this week: "If Ukraine burns, then your Moscow will burn as well." Russia threatened re-retaliation. •The Economist tallied some figures that show how much Kyiv has stepped up its long-range game. In the three years from 2022 through 2024, Ukraine completed a total of 338 reported strikes on targets at least 100 km from its borders, or about 120 strikes per year. Last year, it completed 658 such strikes, and it's on track to complete more than 800 this year. •Many of Ukraine's long-range strikes have targeted oil infrastructure like refineries and ports, causing damage that has reduced Russian oil refinery production by 15% between the first four months of last year and the same period this year - that's despite high oil prices, which usually stimulate more production. NIGER •Gunmen assaulted Niamey's international airport early this morning, engaging Nigerien soldiers in a half-hour gun battle that killed at least 35, including 11 soldiers and two civilians. •Al Qaeda's local affiliate, Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), claimed this morning's attack in a social media post. •That catches JNIM up with its regional rival, Islamic State - Sahel Province (ISSP), which attacked the same airport in January. JNIM and ISSP are likely to continue to stage high-impact attacks on symbolic targets as their rivalry escalates. SUDAN •The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) appears poised to launch an offensive on government-controlled El Obeid. •The RSF has beseiged the capital of North Kordofan state for 18 months, offering its civilian population a glimpse of the horrors that might unfold in a battle to control it. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights urged both sides to "stop this madness."
Open source reportOff Leash update 3 June 2026 IRAN •The U.S. struck Iran's Qeshm Island in retaliation for Iranian fire that downed an American MQ-1 Reaper drone, and Iran fired drones and missiles at Kuwait and Bahrain. •Kuwait said several drone strikes hit its airport, injuring at least 63 people and damaging the main terminal building, and these were Iran's first strikes on Bahrain since the temporary U.S.-Iran ceasefire went into effect almost two months ago. •Despite the exchanges of fire, Pres. Trump says peace talks are still "going on." RUSSIA •Ukraine launched over 350 drones into Russia to menace several major cities, including Moscow, Novgorod, and St. Petersburg - where an economic forum dubbed "Putin's Davos" was underway. •Russia said it intercepted the vast majority of the incoming drones, but it still reported several injuries and extensive damage to infrastructure. GUINEA •Guinea's massive Simandou mine almost doubled its iron ore exports in May compared to April, exporting 2.2 million tons through Morebaya port in May against 1.3 million tons in April. •The project - which sent its first ore to China just six months ago - has been ramping up quickly: April's total exports were more than double the 0.6 million tons shipped in the first three months of the year. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE •Pres. Trump signed an executive order asking technology companies to voluntarily give the U.S. government pre-release oversight of their new artificial intelligence models. •That's a looser requirement than Trump had initially planned to impose: a previous executive order would have mandated a 90-day government review period for new models, but that idea was scrapped last month. The new voluntary measure still imposes more oversight than tech companies currently face - if they opt in, that is. TRADE •The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative proposed new tariffs of 10-12.5% on 60 trading partners - including Canada, China, Japan, and several European Union member states - over their failure to ban exports of goods made with forced labor. •That was the stated justification, anyway. A less-touted second rationale is to replace the Liberation Day tariffs that the U.S. Supreme Court struck down with new levies on a sounder legal basis. EBOLA •The World Health Organization said it had overestimated suspected Ebola cases in eastern DRC and Uganda by a lot: hundreds of the 906 suspected cases it estimated last week were ruled out, leaving its new estimate with just 116 suspected cases and 330 confirmed cases. •Despite the positive revision, front-line medical workers still face challenges containing the outbreak, which was identified late. Test kits and protective gear are in short supply, and it's hard to distribute more because of ongoing conflict and weak state control in the region.
Open source reportOff Leash update 28 May 2026 IRAN •The U.S. military said it had downed four Iranian drones menacing the Strait of Hormuz and targeted a drone operating base yesterday, but said its strikes were "purely defensive and intended to maintain the ceasefire." Iran's military said it responded with strikes on a U.S. base. •The fresh exchange of fire still hasn't broken the temporary ceasefire - or either side's will to negotiate a more permanent truce. Citing a former UN mediator, the NYT noted: "Despite exchanging fire, Iran and the U.S. are still in a cease-fire because they both want to be. A resumption of full-scale war would be extremely costly for both...And so the cease-fire violations should be seen as part of the negotiation process, not a will to escalate." •[The same former mediator also observed that Israel's tenuous ceasefires in Lebanon and Gaza - which are also regularly violated - are very different, in that Israel didn't particularly want either truce and won't mind if both break down.] •Separately, Iran's state media released a new, 14-point peace proposal that the White House quickly rejected as a "complete fabrication." LEBANON •Israel's military continued to ramp up its war against Hezbollah, despite the extended ceasefire it's observing with Lebanon. The Israeli army ordered much of southern Lebanon to evacuate and pounded southern Lebanon's largest city, Tyre, with airstrikes targeting Hezbollah infrastructure. UKRAINE •Ukraine's Parliament (Verkhovna Rada) ratified the EU's €90 billion ($105 billion) loan today. Roughly two-thirds of the funds will go towards defense spending, with the remainder earmarked for broader economic support. Ukraine only needs to repay the loan if Russia pays it reparations after the war. •Around €2.5 billion ($2.8 billion) of the new loan will fund the deal Sweden just announced to sell Ukraine up to 20 Saab JAS 39 Gripen E/F fighter jets. Sweden will also transfer 16 used jets of the previous model, Gripen C/D, to Ukraine. CHINA •Dong Guangping - a Chinese ex-policeman whose criticism of his country's Communist regime landed him in jail twice - was found drifting off the west coast of South Korea in a small rubber boat. •This is at least the fourth time Dong has escaped China: he previously fled to Thailand, Vietnam, and Taiwan; but all three countries complied with China's orders to repatriate him. •Now South Korean authorities have detained him on suspicion of violating immigration laws, and Beijing will surely ask Seoul to send him back. It's unclear whether South Korea will agree. EBOLA •Uganda closed its border with DRC after confirming seven Ebola cases from the latest outbreak - which originated in DRC's Ituri province - in Kampala. •The border is around 545 miles (880 km) long and poorly policed, so closing its six official border posts will do little to contain the much heavier flow of traffic that crosses it on informal footpaths and landing sites.
Open source reportOff Leash update 13 May IRAN •U.S. intelligence agencies have reportedly been painting a very different picture of Iran's surviving military capabilities in classified briefings than the outlook we're hearing from Pres. Trump and Secretary of War Hegseth. •The agencies assess that Iran has regained operational access to 30 of its 33 missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz, and could use the sites to target both military and commercial traffic through the chokepoint. •The agencies also estimated that Iran has restored access to around 90% of its underground launch and storage facilities, and retains about 70% of its prewar mobile launchers and its prewar missile stockpile (which includes both cruise and ballistic missiles). •Pres. Trump insists his starker assessments - e.g., that Iran has been "crushed" and has "nothing left in a military sense" - are accurate, and accused reporters who suggest otherwise of "virtual treason." •Separately, Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia carried out several quiet retaliatory strikes on Iran early in the war. It was the first known time that Saudi has directly struck Iran, and Riyadh apparently made it clear to Tehran that it wanted it to be the last, for now: soon after the strikes, Saudi diplomats engaged their Iranian counterparts in de-escalation talks. UKRAINE AND RUSSIA •Some optimists had hoped the three-day ceasefire Pres. Trump helped broker between Ukraine and Russia could be extended, but Russia's resumption of strikes on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure has ended those hopes. ISRAEL •Prime Minister Netanyahu's fragile ruling coalition finally looks set to collapse after Netanyahu's ultra-Orthodox coalition partners took umbrage at his plans to postpone legislation to shield their Haredi community from military service. (Netanyahu's rationale was that the measure lacked sufficient support in the current parliament and would have been rejected.) •The ultra-Orthodox Degel HaTorah faction responded angrily to the delay, saying it has "no trust in Netanyahu anymore" and calling a vote to dissolve parliament next week. •If that vote passes, new elections must be held within three months - far sooner than the current Oct. 27 deadline. •That's a problem for Netanyahu, who is trailing right-wing former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett in polls. But Netanyahu has survived tougher challenges before. •Separately, a two-year Israeli investigation concluded that Hamas and its allies perpetrated widespread sexual violence during and after the Oct. 7 attacks. It is the most comprehensive report of its kind yet, and will give prosecutors an ample base of evidence to use as they try Hamas militants for their crimes. NIGERIA •Nigeria's military was accused of another massacre of civilians in its errant pursuit of jihadist militants in the north. •The latest incident occurred on Sunday in Zamfara state: airstrikes on a market in Tumfa targeted a terrorist hideout, and - according to Amnesty International - killed over 100 civilians instead. •The military repeated the same response it always has to reports like this: it said it was only targeting militants and has seen no evidence of civilian casualties yet, but promised to investigate.
Open source reportOff Leash update 6 May UKRAINE •Ukraine and Russia both agreed to a ceasefire, but - in an indication of how much they mistrust each other - they agreed to separate ceasefires. •Ukraine's open-ended ceasefire started late yesterday and will last as long as Russia reciprocates, and Russia's - which was announced along with a threat of a "massive missile strike" if Ukraine doesn't comply - will start Friday. •Kyiv has already accused Russia of violating its ceasefire on the front lines, but hasn't torn up the truce yet. IRAN •Pres. Trump announced he was pausing "Project Freedom" - his plan to escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz - after just one day and three escorted transits, citing "great progress" that the U.S. and Iran are making towards a deal. •More likely, Project Freedom was making less progress than Trump had hoped, and Pakistani mediators convinced him it was counterproductive. Instead of freeing up shipping traffic in the Strait, the challenge of military escorts incited Iranian retaliation via small boat attacks. Only two or three escorted boats transited the Strait on Monday, and around 1,600 more remain trapped to the west. •Iran also seemed eager to de-escalate in a way that allows it to save face and claim victory. Its Speaker of Parliament claimed that a "new equation of the Strait of Hormuz is being stabilized." CHINA •Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, visited Beijing for talks with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi. It was their first in-person meeting - and Araghchi's first visit to China - since the war began, but Araghchi and Wang have spoken by phone three times since Feb. 28. •That's probably more than Araghchi has spoken with officials from any other country except those directly mediating between the U.S. and Iran. While it wasn't directly involved in mediating the current temporary ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, Beijing reportedly helped nudge Tehran to accept it. •The timing of Araghchi's visit - just one week before Pres. Xi hosts Pres. Trump - suggests Iran may hope Xi can again intercede as an unofficial mediator. TAIWAN •Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te defied Beijing's bullying and paid a visit to Taiwan's sole remaining ally in Africa, Eswatini (fka Swaziland). •Beijing had sought to block Lai's trip by ordering other African countries to deny his aircraft use of their airspace, but Lai bypassed the prohibition by flying in on an Eswatini government aircraft instead of his own. Beijing likened the clever workaround to "a rat scurrying across the street." ROMANIA •Romania's pro-European coalition government fell in an overwhelming no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan, who came to power less than a year ago as part of a motley coalition that has since broken down over Bolojan's proposed austerity measures. •President Nicusor Dan appealed for calm and promised a new, pro-Western government "within a reasonable time," while ruling out early elections. SYRIA •Syria said its security forces foiled a major terrorist attack that Lebanese Hezbollah militants were planning to carry out in coordinated operations targeting at least five different Syrian governates. •Hezbollah supported the deposed Assad regime's losing side in Syria's civil war, and has continued to agitate against the new government and its ex-rebel leaders in revenge for their efforts to cut off the smuggling routes Iran uses to supply its Lebanese proxy.
Open source reportOff Leash update 2 April IRAN •Pres. Trump used his primetime address on Iran last night to declare that the war was "nearing completion" and - having achieved its objectives - would wrap up in the next two or three weeks, with or without a deal. •Critics complained that he moved the goalposts to be able to claim victory in achieving objectives like regime change ("they’re all dead, so I would consider that regime change") and eliminating Iran's nuclear threat (he now says the 400 kg of enriched uranium that Iran could use to race towards a bomb is "so far underground, I don't care about that"). •He also offered no clear plan for ending the month-long conflict, and alternated between threats to "bring them back to the stone ages, where they belong" and claims that "discussions were ongoing" - and going well, since "we have all the cards; they have none." •Iran denies that any such discussions are taking place, and its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) seems to still have some cards left. Yesterday, it said it would start targeting the Middle East offices of major U.S. companies like Apple, Boeing, Google, JPMorgan Chase, Microsoft, and Nvidia. •While denying that talks are already underway, Iran's Pres. Pezeshkian told European Council President Antonio Costa that Iran is open to a truce as long as it includes guarantees of a permanent end to hostilities. Iranian hardliners hate the idea of negotiating any kind of truce. •Separately, Long War Journal assessed that Iran and its proxies fired fewer projectiles in the period from March 28 to April 1 than they had in earlier parts of the war, but that their recent strikes have been more accurate and effective at penetrating air defenses. IRAQ •It emerged that Kataib Hezbollah, an Iran-linked Iraqi militia, was behind the kidnapping of American journalist Shelly Kittleson in Baghdad on Tuesday. •Though Kataib Hezbollah has links to Iran, its practice of kidnapping Westerners predates the war. It kidnapped a Russian-Israeli researcher in early 2023 and held her for nearly three years before freeing her under pressure from the Trump administration. •It now wants to trade Kittleson for several of its members imprisoned in Iraq. RUSSIA AND UKRAINE •Ukraine is doing its best to hinder Russia's ability to reap windfall profits from high oil prices and temporary partial sanctions relief by targeting Russian oil export infrastructure. Ukrainian drones carried out an unprecedented scale of strikes on export facilities that took up to 40% of Russia's total crude export capacity offline. Some capacity has now been restored. •Separately, Russia claimed that its forces had taken full control of eastern Ukraine's Luhansk region. Russia has long controlled 99% of Luhansk, and has now thrice claimed to have captured the last remaining pockets of it. •Like its two previous claims, this one seems premature: the Institute for the Study of War assessed that the settlements of Nadiya and Novoyehorivka remain outside Russian control. VENEZUELA •The U.S. lifted sanctions on Venezuela's new president, Delcy Rodriguez. Rodriguez had been blacklisted since 2018 for her role as vice president in her predecessor's repressive regime. •Since the U.S. ousted her predecessor, Nicolas Maduro, and installed her in his place, she's been pliant and willing to work with the U.S. on priority goals like opening Venezuelan oil and mining assets to U.S. investment. NATO •Pres. Trump threatened to withdraw the U.S. from NATO, which he called a "paper tiger," over allies' reluctance to join his war with Iran. It's not the first time Trump has threatened to pull out of the alliance, but this time he seems more likely to follow through. Having heard the same threat before, NATO members are also probably better prepared for an alliance without the U.S.
Open source reportOff Leash update 9 March COMING UP THIS WEEK •Today is Commonwealth Day: a celebration of the 56-member Commonwealth of Nations that will be marked by a speech by King Charles III. It's also World Napping Day. •Saturday is my favorite holiday, Pi Day. •On Sunday, Vietnam will vote in national assembly elections, Congo-Brazzaville will hold a sham poll to re-elect incumbent president Denis Sassou Nguesso, and Kazakhstan will hold a constitutional referendum COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,446/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $67,626 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $12,862/ton •Ethereum: $1,991 •Gold: $5,089/toz •Lead: $1,953/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.37/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $103.40/barrel •Zinc: $3,298/ton IRAN •Israel bombed several Iranian fuel depots, causing thick smoke and acid rain. The White House was reportedly surprised by the scale of its ally's attack on (partly) civilian infrastructure and displeased by the prospect that it could backfire by angering ordinary Iranians into supporting their defiant regime. •Global oil prices reached their highest levels since 2022 on concerns that the war - and the oil supply disruptions it's causing - won't end soon. Pres. Trump told Americans that costlier gas is a "very small price" to pay for ridding the world of an evil Iranian regime, but voters may not agree in this mid-term election year. •Analysts are increasingly describing the war as a perilous game of geopolitical chicken, with each side hoping to force the other to surrender first. Iran hopes its attacks on U.S. allies in the Middle East will cause enough damage that those allies will lobby the U.S. and Israel to stop attacking. And Pres. Trump seems to be hoping that the bombardment will eventually force surviving leaders into making a deal to end their attrition. But - as today's NYT pointed out - "[n]either option promises the kind of change many Iranians might be hoping for." •Separately, Iran's Council of Experts appointed Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his father as Supreme Leader. Mojtaba is a quiet figure and his personal views and priorities aren't widely known, but his bloodline and close ties with the security services suggest he's likely to be a hardliner like his father. UKRAINE •Pres. Zelensky proudly boasted that Ukrainian interceptor drones are helping to protect U.S. military bases in Jordan, and may soon be deployed to U.S. bases in Gulf countries. •Ukraine has been battling Russia's Iranian-made Shahed drones in its skies for years, giving it an unparalleled level of experience and expertise defending against drone attacks. •Kyiv now hopes to lend that expertise to the U.S. to curry favor ahead of U.S.-brokered peace talks with Russia, but analysts are skeptical that will help ingratiate Zelensky with Pres. Trump, who continues to blame Ukraine for the failure of truce talks. NEPAL •A new party led by a former rapper, Balendra Shah, won a landslide victory in Nepal's first parliamentary election since Gen Z protests toppled the previous government. •Shah and his Rastriya Swatantra (National Independent Party) won 117 of 165 directly-elected seats. That strong majority also gives Shah a mandate to carry out the reform agenda he campaigned on - and agitated for as a protest leader before entering politics. AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN •Afghanistan's Taliban government said Pakistan attacked five of its border provinces over the weekend, and its defense minister warned that "if Kabul is attacked, Islamabad will be attacked." [Presumably he meant "If Kabul is attacked again:" Pakistan already struck Kabul earlier in this bout of fighting, and Afghanistan didn't retaliate then.] •A tenuous ceasefire ended the last round of skirmishes in October, but it broke down after fresh cross-border attacks reinvigorated Pakistan's drive to eliminate the Pakistani Taliban militants it accuses Afghanistan of harboring. •This time, neither side seems ready to talk peace. But neither can afford to wage a full-blown war over their differences either, so their fight will probably grind on as a low-level war. GUINEA •Guinea's coup leader-cum-president, Mamady Doumbouya, ordered the dissolution of 40 political parties ostensibly for failing to meet their legal and fiscal obligations. •The three largest opposition parties cried foul - though all three were already suspended in August and have few operations left to dissolve. •The country's most visible opposition leader, Cellou Dalein Diallo, called for "direct resistance" but didn't elaborate on what he had in mind.
Open source reportOff Leash update 5 March IRAN •A U.S. Navy submarine sank Iran's IRIS Dena off the coast of Sri Lanka yesterday, marking the first time since 1982 (Argentine Cruiser Belgrano) that a sub-fired torpedo sunk an enemy ship. Sri Lanka's navy rescued 32 Iranian sailors and recovered 87 bodies from the IRIS Dena, which SecDef Hegseth called Iran's "prize warship." Another 60 who were aboard the frigate are still missing. •Iran vowed retaliation, and state media claimed that its navy carried out that threat this morning when it hit a U.S. tanker in the northern Persian Gulf with a missile, causing a fire and an oil spill. That report remains unconfirmed. •Pres. Trump floated the idea of providing affordable insurance for shipping lines transiting the Strait of Hormuz, in an effort to reopen oil supply chains. One-third of seaborne crude and one-fifth of global gas pass through the Strait daily. Several marine insurers are reportedly in talks with the White House about possible facilities. •In another indication that the war is far from over, there are few signs of the defections within the regime or the popular movements organizing to overthrow it that Israel hoped would materialize once its airstrikes delivered the first blows. •Instead, U.S.-allied Iranian Kurdish forces in Iraq are preparing for a possible ground incursion into the north - perhaps in coordination with Israel's Mossad and the U.S. CIA. •Analysts suggest that the new front could distract and draw out some Iranian forces, but doubt it could topple the regime. Iran preemptively targeted the Kurdish force's headquarters in northern Iraq. UKRAINE •Russia blamed Ukraine for sinking a liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker carrying about 61,000 tons of LNG in the eastern Mediterranean on Tuesday. •The Kremlin claimed that Ukrainian forces launched "uncrewed sea drones" from the Libyan coast at the Arctic Metagaz tanker, which appears to have been part of its shadow fleet transporting sanctioned oil. •Meanwhile, Pres. Zelensky said that U.S.-Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks will resume as soon as the situation in the Middle East permits U.S. attention to shift elsewhere. CHINA •China's rubber-stamp parliament, the National People's Congress, set the country's 2026 GDP growth target at 4.5-5.0% yesterday, marking the first time in over 30 years that Beijing has aimed for less than 5% growth. •Citing an analyst, the NYT noted that "the lower target signals that [Beijing] is willing to tolerate slower near-term growth while it focuses on longer-term structural fixes." DRC •Congolese authorities reported that a landslide at DRC's Rubaya coltan mine killed at least 200 artisanal miners, including around 70 children. •The M23 - which controls Rubaya - disputed Kinshasa's official account, saying that it was government "bombings" - not a landslide - that caused the mine to collapse, and claiming that "simply about five" people died - not 200. •[Notably, the M23 didn't dispute that a landslide was the cause of a nearly-identical disaster in late January that killed roughly the same number as the government says died this time.]
Open source reportOff Leash update 2 March COMING UP THIS WEEK •China's National People's Congress - a rubber-stamp parliament - opens its annual meeting Thursday. Analysts expect it to set a slightly lower GDP growth than last year's target: perhaps 4.5% instead of 5.0%. •The Winter Paralympics start Friday in Milan and Cortina d'Ampezzo, Italy. •Colombia votes for its parliament Sunday, which is also International Women's Day and the beginning of Daylight Savings Time in the U.S. (but not in Europe, where clocks change Mar. 29). COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,140/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $66,223 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $13,344/ton •Ethereum: $1,951 •Gold: $5,392/toz •Lead: $1,962/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.01/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $72.21/barrel - Some analysts expect this to rise to $85-90 when markets open today because of Iran's naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following U.S. and Israeli strikes over the weekend. •Zinc: $3,317/ton IRAN •The U.S. and Israel bombed Iran on Saturday morning, targeting a daytime gathering of senior Iranian figures - including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei - in some of their opening strikes. •Iranian state media confirmed early rumors that Khamenei was killed in the strikes. Many Iranians cheered his death and the end of his 37-year theocratic reign; others - largely religious ultraconservatives - mourned his loss. •The regime announced 40 days of mourning and said the constitutionally-defined process of appointing his successor would begin immediately and could anoint the next Ayatollah within days. •Candidates include his son, Mojtaba; his loyal aide, Ali Larijani; and several hardline clerics. Whoever is picked will immediately have a target on their back. That said, all the top candidates probably already do: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said his military has "thousands more targets" in its sights. •The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) vowed to avenge Khamenei's death, but much of the IRGC's leadership - including its top commander - died with him. •The decapitated IRGC still retaliated by launching ballistic missiles at Israel and several countries in the region that host U.S. military bases. Most were easily intercepted, but some caused damage and a few caused casualties - including the deaths of three U.S. soldiers. •The ongoing exchange of fire has caused widespread flight cancellations, and both sides seem bent on further escalation. In particular, Iran's navy is reportedly carrying out the IRGC's threat to choke off shipping in the vital waterway, through which 31% of all seaborne crude oil passes. •In a social media post, Pres. Trump called on Iranians to finish the job: "When we are finished, take over your government." It's not clear whether the battered, unarmed, and disorganized opposition will heed his call to rise up, but leaving the hard part to them lets Trump avoid sending ground troops into what could become another Middle Eastern quagmire. LEBANON •Iran's strongest remaining proxy, Hezbollah, then joined Iran's side by lobbing missiles towards Israel from Lebanon. Israel promptly retaliated with a barrage of airstrikes on Hezbollah areas in Lebanon. •Israel's quick, decisive action against Hezbollah was embarrassing for the Lebanese government, which promised Israel it would rein in the militia as a condition of their Nov. 2024 ceasefire, but has made little progress doing so out of fears of a confrontation that the weak Lebanese army might lose. UKRAINE •Ukrainian officials said Russia had agreed to some facets of the post-war security guarantees the U.S. proposed. The two sides still need to resolve the other sticking point of land trades, and Moscow could still renege on its pinky promise on security guarantees. PAKISTAN AND AFGHANISTAN •Afghanistan's Taliban government said its military fired anti-aircraft missiles that successfully deterred Pakistani jets threatening Bagram Air Base. •Bagram holds significant symbolic importance for the Taliban: the captured U.S. base holds Afghanistan's largest runway and hosts annual military parades each year on the anniversary of the Taliban's return to power. •Its destruction would be a much bigger loss for the Taliban than the small ammunition depots Pakistan targeted in its first wave of cross-border strikes last week. VENEZUELA •Venezuela's opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado, announced in a social media post that she plans to return to her home country in the coming weeks. •Machado left Venezuela in December to attend the Nobel award ceremony in Oslo, where she collected her Nobel Peace Prize. •Before she left, Nicolas Maduro's government charged her with a litany of crimes and ominously warned that she wouldn't be allowed to return if she left. •Maduro's former vice president and successor, Interim President Delcy Rodriguez, may only be slightly more lenient on her: Rodriguez recently said Machado will have to "answer to Venezuela" for advocating for U.S. military intervention in Caracas.
Open source reportOff Leash update 6 Feb UKRAINE •Trilateral peace talks between Russia, Ukraine, and U.S. negotiators lasted just three hours yesterday - and not because they reached quick agreement. •The delegates reported no progress towards resolving two of the thorniest issues blocking a peace deal: the future of the Donbas region and post-war security guarantees for Ukraine. •Ukraine and Russia did, however, agree to another prisoner swap, and the U.S. and Russia agreed to restart talks between their militaries after a four-year lull. •Separately, Russia's deputy head of military intelligence, Lt. Gen. Vladimir Alexeyev, was shot several times in an assassination attempt in his apartment building in Moscow this morning. Alexeyev was hospitalized with serious injuries. •It's not clear who was behind the attack. Ukraine has claimed several similar targeted attacks on senior figures inside Russia, and it was probably also responsible for others it didn't publicly claim. NIGERIA •Jihadists killed over 170 people - mostly Muslims - in Nigeria's western Kwara State. •Pres. Bolo Tinubu deployed an army battalion to the region "to checkmate the barbaric terrorists and protect defenceless communities." Tinubu is under U.S. pressure to do more to combat Islamic terrorism in Nigeria so Pres. Trump doesn't feel compelled to intervene again with fresh airstrikes. •Tinubu's office said the Kwara gunmen sought revenge on villagers who had "rejected their obnoxious attempt at indoctrination." That's consistent with local reports that the attackers were Islamists who sought to preach in the villages but became enraged when villagers rejected their extremist ideology and refused their orders to adopt Sharia law. •Tinubu blamed the attack on Boko Haram, but he may be using the name of Nigeria's best-known jihadist group as a catch-all for unrelated Islamic terrorists. A local lawmaker said the attackers were part of the Lakurawa, an armed group linked to Islamic State. •Meanwhile, the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) said the last 166 hostages abducted in last month's attacks on churches in nearby Kaduna state had finally been freed. CAN didn't say whether ransoms were paid, but they likely were. Critics suggest paying ransoms incentivizes further kidnappings. SOUTH SUDAN •The South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF) announced that it had recaptured parts of Jonglei from the rival Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army in Opposition (SPLM/A-IO). •The SPLM/A-IO acknowledged it was withdrawing from Jonglei, but unconvincingly called the move a "deliberate and part of a broader operational strategy rather than a sign of defeat." The SPLM/A-IO also accused the SSPDF of genocide, rape, and other heinous atrocities in Jonglei. •The sudden shift raised fears of a reopened civil war pitting Pres. Kiir and the SSPDF against Kiir's First Vice President, Riek Machar (who has been in detention since last year), and the SPLM/A-IO.
Open source reportOff Leash update 17 Dec VENEZUELA •In a Truth Social post, Pres. Trump said he had designated Nicolas Maduro's government a foreign terrorist organization and announced a "A TOTAL AND COMPLETE BLOCKADE OF ALL SANCTIONED OIL TANKERS going into, and out of, Venezuela." •While that sounds severe, analysts point out that the emphasis on sanctioned tankers suggests this will be more of a redoubling of ongoing U.S. naval operations against regime-linked boats in the Caribbean than a true blockade. •It won't affect Chevron's legal exports of Venezuelan oil; nor will it threaten legal shipments of other goods to and from Venezuela. And with global oil markets well supplied and China - as the main buyer of Venezuelan oil - unlikely to enthusiastically enforce sanctions, it likely won't have a lasting effect on oil prices either. •The new terrorist designation will, however, facilitate more seizures of sanctioned oil tankers. The U.S. is monitoring around 18 fully-loaded, sanctioned tankers in Venezuelan waters, and Axios reported that it plans to seize any that enter international waters. •The designation could also help build a case for the land strikes and direct military action Trump has repeatedly threatened against Venezuela. •The new measures will also further hobble Venezuela's ailing economy. Since oil is Venezuela's main source of export earnings, the blockade is likely to exacerbate already-high inflation and lead to a fresh surge in outbound migration. UKRAINE •U.S. and European officials wrapped up two days of meetings on Ukraine in Berlin after making some minor progress on possible ceasefire terms. •One new aspect of the tabled peace proposal would see U.S. intelligence and European troops reinforce Ukraine's post-war security and help deter a repeat Russian invasion in the future. Russia will certainly reject that idea; it didn't even bother to respond to the far more favorable plan the U.S. initially proposed. SAHEL •In an interview with pro-Kremlin media outlet TASS, Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister - Sergey Vershinin - accused the West of "waging a large-scale campaign to destabilize the situation" in the junta-run Sahel states of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. •That's an odd accusation from an official representing the country that gained the most from the destabilizing coups that overthrew elected governments in all three Sahel countries. While there's no direct evidence that Russia was involved an any of the putschs, it was quick to capitalize on the opportunity to bolster each junta with no-strings-attached security support in exchange for mineral access. CRITICAL MINERALS •The European Union (EU) outlined a plan to lower its ambitions for replacing combustion engine vehicles with greener models - in part to reduce the costly compliance burden that lofty green targets have forced on struggling European automakers. •Instead of requiring EU-made vehicles to eliminate 100% of their carbon emissions by 2035, the new target would aim for a 90% reduction in emissions. That means carmakers could still produce hybrids and internal combustion engine cars after 2035 - though fewer of them than they're making now. •If adopted, the plan would reduce EU carmakers' demand for battery minerals like cobalt and rare earths. It's seen as a particularly welcome reprieve for the EU's luxury carmakers like Porsche, Mercedes-Benz, and BMW, who have struggled more with the green transition than their mass-market counterparts.
Open source reportOff Leash update 7 Nov UKRAINE •After 21 months of grueling battle, Russia appears to be on the verge of capturing the Donbas city of Pokrovsk - though Ukraine insists its forces are still resisting and are not cut off yet. •The fall of Pokrovsk would be Russia's biggest battlefield gain since seizing Bakhmut over two years ago, and it would give Russian forces a base for further advances in the Donbas. •More importantly, it would give Pres. Putin a minor win to bolster his case to Pres. Trump that Russian victory is inevitable - and thus that sending U.S. weapons to Ukraine is folly. CENTRAL ASIA •Pres. Trump hosted leaders of the C5+1 bloc (comprising 5 "Stans" - Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan - and the U.S.) for a summit focused on strengthening partnerships on critical minerals and energy yesterday. •The C5 Stans are rich in uranium, copper, gold, and rare earths; but all maintain strong (but complicated) ties with Moscow as a legacy of the Soviet era. •Ahead of the White House meeting, Kazakhstan announced that it plans to join the Abraham Accords - a series of agreements normalizing diplomatic relations between Israel and its countersignatories. •Kazakhstan already has full diplomatic relations and strong economic ties with Israel, so it has nothing left to gain from signing the Abraham Accords. Rather, its ceremonial inclusion may be a way to reinvigorate momentum for the deprioritized agreements. RUSSIA •After years of warnings that NATO had fallen far behind Russia on ammunition manufacturing, the alliance's Secretary-General, Mark Rutte, announced that NATO members are now collectively producing as many units per month as Russia is. •That may not sound like a big achievement for a bloc with a combined GDP 25 times Russia's, but it took massive investment in new and expanded production lines to overcome the gaping lead Russia had: just five months ago, Russia was making four times as much ammunition as NATO's 32 members. LIBYA •Libya's National Oil Corporation (NOC) announced a significant new onshore oil discovery in well H1-NC4 of the Ghadames Basin southwest of Tripoli. •NOC's new discovery follows OMV's find in the Sirte Basin last week, and both are signs of renewed confidence in investing in Libya's rich oil and gas potential. •Other companies are keen to join the rush, too: NOC head Masoud Suleiman recently reported that 40 firms expressed interest in the 22 oil exploration blocks being offered in the latest bidding round - which was Libya's first in over 17 years.
Open source reportOff Leash update 2 October RUSSIA •The Kremlin warned European leaders against approving a proposal to essentially advance Ukraine €140 billion ($156 billion) in future reparations funding backed by frozen Russian assets. •The EU plan would package that funding as an interest-free loan to avoid the complexities of seizing Russian assets outright, but the Kremlin now says it would consider such crafty financial engineering the same thing as a seizure anyway, and would retaliate by seizing an equivalent value of frozen European assets in Russia. •Separately, French authorities seized a Russian "shadow fleet" oil tanker off France's western coast and detained two of its crew over the tanker's suspected ties to recent drone flights over European countries. That lends credence to Ukrainian President Zelensky's assertion that the trespassing drones are being launched from Russia's "shadow fleet." •Indeed, the seized tanker, the Borocay, was sailing near the Danish coast last week when unidentified drones - likely launched from it - menaced Denmark's skies and forced its main airport to temporarily close. DRC •Some Congo watchers - especially those aligned with former president Joseph Kabila - expressed concern that the death sentence a military court handed Kabila on Tuesday will derail the bumbling and half-hearted peace process that DRC and the M23 / Rwanda entered into over the summer. •Kabila's sympathizers are probably correct that his conviction and sentence were politically motivated, and the conviction is certainly not going to encourage Kabila to help end the conflict in the east. But the death sentence is unlikely to ever be carried out, and the peace process is already so broken that a vindictive verdict against Kabila is unlikely to do much further damage. AFGHANISTAN •Internet service returned to Afghanistan after a two-day outage that media reports tied to a Taliban edict against "immorality." •A Taliban spokesman now says the government didn't intentionally cut off internet this time - unlike from 1996 to 2001 during their last turn in power, when they did ban internet use. •That may be a way to save face after Taliban leaders realized how much Afghanistan's economy and people now depend on the internet for basic and Taliban-tolerated (for men, at least) functions like trade, travel, and communications. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 21 Aug GAZA •The Israeli military began what a spokesman called "the next phase of the war" in Gaza and called up 60,000 reservists for the effort. Its troops have reached the edges of Gaza City and are preparing to encircle it and take control. •Meanwhile, a planning committee issued final approval for a contentious 3,400-unit West Bank settlement project called East One, or E1 for short. E1 was first proposed in 1995, but its approval was long delayed until now - in part over widespread concerns that E1's central location will disrupt the contiguity of the Palestinian-populated West Bank. •To Israeli hardliners like finance minister Bezalel Smotrich, that's exactly the point: after yesterday's approval, Smotrich gloated that the idea of a Palestinian state "is being erased from the table." Smotrich has been a driving force behind the recent acceleration in settlement approvals, and critics say Prime Minister Netanyahu has given Smotrich unprecedented - and unwarranted - authority over settlement plans because he needs Smotrich's party's support to stay in power. •Both moves - in Gaza and the West Bank - suggest Netanyahu isn't seriously considering the temporary ceasefire proposal Hamas agreed to this week. UKRAINE •Russia's Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, said that Russia would insist on being party to any future security guarantees for Ukraine, including those the U.S. is considering that Pres. Trump suggested could be "NATO-like." I suppose that means that if Russia attacks Ukraine post-peace, it will be obliged to retaliate on Ukraine's behalf against...itself? •Lavrov's bizarre comment seems like yet another example that Russia isn't ready to talk peace. •Meanwhile on the battlefield, Russian troops continue to inch forward using inefficient but sneaky tactics like sending small groups of footsoldiers across to regroup behind Ukrainian lines and attack. •Russia's broader goal appears to be to capture as much ground as possible so it can start peace talks from a better negotiating position - if its valiant stalling efforts fail and it's forced to start talks. CHINA •China's Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, returned from a two-day state visit to India with several trade and diplomatic agreements to rebuild and strengthen ties between the two Asian giants. Ties gradually frayed over their superpower rivalry, but cleaved in 2020 over a border dispute. •China and India now plan to reopen their shared (and still disputed) border in three places and facilitate visa approvals to improve trade flows. They'll also resume direct flights, which had been suspended since pandemic lockdowns. •Some analysts see the diplomatic rekindling as a result of U.S. trade pressure on India that has encouraged India to turn to other trade and geopolitical allies instead. •Separately, Chinese leader Xi Jinping paid a rare and unannounced visit to the Tibetan capital of Lhasa yesterday. Xi - who hadn't visited Lhasa since 2021 - said Beijing would "guide Tibetan Buddhism to adapt to socialist society," which probably means it will continue to impose the Communist Party's devoutly atheist values on resolutely spiritual Tibetan Buddhists in the region. AFGHANISTAN •After Chinese Foreign Minister Wang's visit to India, Wang flew to Kabul to offer Afghanistan's Taliban government new Chinese investment - particularly in infrastructure and mining (especially of lithium, iron, and copper) - and to invite Afghanistan to formally join the Belt and Road Initiative. •China's 176 construction contracts and investment pledges to Belt and Road members in the first half of 2025 totaled $124 billion. That's already more than the $122 billion that China pledged to members in all of 2024. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 30 July UKRAINE •The Kremlin said it "took note" of Pres. Trump's threat to impose new sanctions and penalties if a ceasefire is not agreed with Ukraine by roughly Aug. 7-9. •In lieu of a direct response to Trump's ultimatum, Russia launched new missile strikes on Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro, killing at least 22. •Even Trump acknowledged that his tariff threat "may or may not" work, since Pres. Putin "wants to, obviously, probably keep the war going." RUSSIA •Separately, a massive 8.8-magnitude earthquake - perhaps the sixth-largest ever recorded - struck off the coast of eastern Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula early this morning, triggering a tsunami in the Pacific Ocean and warnings and alerts spanning the entire West Coast of the U.S. PALESTINIAN STATEHOOD •After much prodding from British citizens and MPs appalled by images of starving children in Gaza, Prime Minister Starmer announced that the UK will follow France's lead and recognize a Palestinian state in September unless Israel meets several weighty conditions before then. •In order to avoid the UK recognizing Palestinian statehood in September, Israel must first agree to a ceasefire in Gaza. It must also pledge not to annex the occupied West Bank, and it must commit to a credible process that will eventually grant Palestinian statehood anyway. •Prime Minister Netanyahu's furious reaction declaring that Starmer's ultimatum "rewards Hamas's monstrous terrorism" suggests Israel is highly unlikely to meet any of Starmer's conditions by September. TRADE •The EU's largest economies are less enthusiastic than European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was about the trade deal von der Leyen recently signed with Pres. Trump on behalf of the bloc. •Germany's Chancellor Merz said the deal would "substantially damage" the German economy, and France's Prime Minister Bayrou called its signing a "dark day" for the EU. •Both Merz and Bayrou likely lament the 15% tariff the deal locks in for most goods the EU exports to the U.S. However, pragmatists observe that the alternative was not a continuation of today's lower tariff rates but rather levies far above 15% and a possible trade war. CHINA •U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng talked trade for ten hours over the course of Monday and Tuesday, but only agreed to continue discussions and perhaps - if Pres. Trump approves it - extend the current bilateral tariff pause another 90 days from its expiration date in mid-August. INDIA AND PAKISTAN •India said its forces had finally - over 100 days later - killed three of the terrorists involved the April attack in Kashmir that sparked a brief skirmish with Pakistan. Prime Minister Modi's government has faced criticism for taking so long to identify and pursue the attackers.
Open source reportOff Leash update 18 July SYRIA •Since taking power earlier this year, Syria's Pres. al Sharaa - a former jihadist - has carefully cultivated a new image as an inclusive statesman who has let go of past grievances, including against Israel. •However, Israel's airstrikes on Damascus this week have clearly tested al Sharaa's patience. In his sharpest public criticism yet, al Sharaa accused Israel of inciting "chaos" with its "wide-scale targeting of civilian and government facilities" in Damascus. •Prime Minister Netanyahu seemed to confirm reports that Israel used its airstrikes to bully al Sharaa's government into the latest ceasefire (which is still mostly holding up) when he said the truce was "achieved through strength." •Netanyahu seems resolute in his commitment to using Israel's military might to protect Syria's Druze: he vowed to block Syrian troops from deploying anywhere south of Damascus. UKRAINE •When Presidents Trump and Zelensky spoke by phone on July 4, Trump asked Zelensky about Ukraine's capacity to strike targets in Moscow and St. Petersburg. •The White House said Trump was "was merely asking a question, not encouraging further killing," but it seems Zelensky took the question as tacit approval to fire at Russia's largest and second-largest cities: Ukraine launched over 100* drones at the two cities yesterday. [*100 came from Russian reports - which usually seek to downplay Ukrainian battle strength - so the true number of Ukrainian drones was likely far higher.] •Separately, Ukraine announced two moves to reinvigorate its war effort with arms boosts. First, its Brave1 defense tech incubator launched a program offering Ukraine's front lines as a test bed for new weapons prototypes that allied countries want to test in action. Ukrainian troops will test the new models and report back on how they perform. •Second, Pres. Zelensky set a goal for Ukraine to produce 50% of its weapons domestically within the next six months, compared to the 40% it currently self-supplies. UK •The UK's incumbent Labour Party introduced a plan to lower the voting age to 16. Labour says the shift would bring new, youthful energy to British democracy. Naturally, it would also boost Labour's support: as in the U.S., younger voters in the UK tend to lean left. IRAN •A new U.S. intelligence assessment cautiously determined that last month's U.S. strikes on Iran badly damaged - and perhaps destroyed - the underground nuclear enrichment site at Fordo, and likely surgically destroyed the facilities (like centrifuges) at Isfahan and Natanz that would be used to enrich any surviving 60% uranium to weapons grade - though Isfahan and Natanz suffered less overall damage than Fordo. •That assessment corroborates claims that the strikes have set Iran's nuclear weapons program back years or even decades: even if Iran was able to shield some or all of its 60% uranium from the blasts, it likely does not have any surviving centrifuges to further enrich it to weapons grade. •Separately, additional intelligence reports suggest that Iran's Pres. Pezeshkian sustained minor leg injuries while fleeing an Israeli strike sometime around day four of their 12-day war. Pezeshkian, who is still open to nuclear talks with the U.S., was careful to clarify that: "It was not the United States that was behind the attempt on my life. It was Israel." DRC •DRC is reportedly close to finalizing a four-year football (soccer) sponsorship deal to pay FC Barcelona €10.0 to 11.5 million ($11.6 to 13.4 million) per year to place the slogan "The Heart of Africa" on its men's and women's training and warm-up jerseys, in a bid to attract tourists to DRC. •That follows similar deals DRC announced last month with AS Monaco and AC Milan. •DRC is probably hoping to emulate its regional rival Rwanda, which saw a 17% boost in tourist arrivals within a year of signing a jersey sponsorship deal with the UK's Arsenal football club.
Open source reportOff Leash update 30 June COMING UP THIS WEEK •The Wimbledon Championships tennis tournament starts today and lasts two weeks. •Bulgaria will adopt the Euro starting tomorrow, becoming the 21st member of the Eurozone. •Canada Day is tomorrow, July 1, and the U.S. celebrates its 249th birthday - as well as the annual Nathan's International Hot Dog Eating Contest - on Friday, July 4. •The 112th Tour de France cycling race starts Saturday. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,595/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $101,590 •Cobalt: $33,335/ton •Copper: $9,878/ton •Ethereum: $2,463 •Gold: $3,286/toz •Lead: $2,044/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.53/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $65.25/barrel •Zinc: $2,779/ton UKRAINE •Russia hit Ukraine with yet another largest aerial barrage yet, launching 537 drones and missiles overnight. As often, this round of strikes targeted Ukrainian infrastructure. •One Ukrainian F-16 crashed while defending against the Russian attack, killing the pilot. Ukraine has now lost three of its unknown number of F-16s. •Separately, Russian state media said Russian forces captured a village in Dnipropetrovsk. It would be Russia's first foothold in the eastern Ukrainian region, and could be part of Pres. Putin's theat to expand territorial gains in Ukraine in the absence of a peace deal (though some analysts suggest thinly-spread Russian forces will struggle to keep control of new territory). •Meanwhile, Putin claimed Friday that he's ready to talk peace. Putin has made similar statements before, only to backtrack when the idea moves forward and then shrug off blame for the resulting impasse. •Putin's press corps is already starting to suggest that Ukraine and the U.S. are responsible for the latest delays: Ukraine for not acceding to Moscow's territorial gains and Putin's assertion that "all of Ukraine is ours," and the U.S. for failing to push the warring parties towards a deal. GAZA •The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation - the new Israel-backed group distributing aid in Gaza - said it had credible information that Hamas has placed bounties on its aid workers. That adds to concerns that Hamas is seeking to undermine alternative aid delivery systems that it can't siphon from. CHINA •The latest Chinese Communist Party (CCP) census confirmed that the CCP has surpassed 100 million members. •Though the ruling party continues to grow - thanks in part to the rich job prospects its members enjoy - its growth slowed for the third straight year in 2024 as officials continued their efforts to expel slackers and crooks. GUINEA •Guinea's junta-run parliament proposed that the president's term be extended from five to seven years, and that presidents be allowed to hold office for two terms, or a total of 14 years. •That's an interesting shift for a junta that ousted the civilian government before it (in part) over overthrown president Conde's attempt to extend his term to five years and run for a third term, for a total of 13 years in power. TRADE •Pres. Trump walked away from trade talks with Canada on Friday, citing gripes with an "egregious" new tax Canada planned to impose on digital services that would disproportionately affect U.S. tech companies. Canada quickly gave in and ditched the new tax; it's not clear whether Trump will now return to talks.
Open source reportOff Leash update 1 May 2025 UKRAINE •Ukraine and the U.S. finally signed a mineral revenue-sharing agreement after months of negotiations - and an Oval Office debacle that derailed the first attempt at signing. •Neither side has elaborated on the terms of this agreement except to confirm that it establishes a joint investment fund that will share Ukraine's future mineral revenues between the U.S. and Ukraine. •In any case, the fact that Presidents Trump and Zelensky moved past their Oval Office blowup and signed something is perhaps more important than the precise details of the deal they signed. SYRIA •Israel carried out drone strikes near the predominantly Druze village of Sahnaya, Syria (near Damascus) and - uncharacteristically - officially acknowledged responsibility for the strikes. •Israel justified its incursion as a retaliatory "warning operation" against an "extremist group" preparing to attack members of the Druze community - a religious minority with adherents in Syria, Lebanon, and Israel that Israel has vowed to stand up for. •Syrian Druze on the outskirts of Damascus have indeed been embroiled in violence this week. The clashes began Tuesday, when an offensive audio recording cursing the Prophet Mohammad went viral - along with a rumor that it was recorded by a Druze sheikh. That enraged dogmatic Sunnis, who lashed out at Druze communities in revenge. •Israel's aerial intervention wasn't just about defending the Druze minority, though. It also served as a warning to Syria's new government that Israel doesn't trust interim president Ahmed Al Sharaa - a former Sunni jihadist - to protect the Druze minority in Syria. Israel reiterated that point in "a message [that] was passed on to the Syrian regime - Israel expects them to prevent harm to the Druze." •Al Sharaa's government complained about the incursion in a fairly polite statement rejecting "all forms of foreign intervention" (but not explicitly mentioning Israel or its strikes) and reiterating its commitment to protecting all Syrian groups, "including the noble Druze sect." YEMEN •British Typhoon fighters joined U.S. jets for a joint operation against a Houthi drone factory near Sanaa. It was the first time since Pres. Trump took office - or since he ramped up anti-Houthi strikes under "Operation Rough Rider" starting in March - that the UK has participated in U.S. operations in Yemen. MOZAMBIQUE •French energy giant Total said it aims to resume construction of its giant LNG plant in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique by mid-year. •Construction was derailed in 2017 because of an Islamist insurgency that targeted government forces and foreign assets, but Total insists the plant site is now "completely secure" and project financing is "back on track." DRC •DRC's Attorney General asked the Senate to strip ex-President Kabila of his immunity for his alleged involvement in "war crimes, crimes against humanity and massacres of peaceful civilians and military personnel." •Pres. Tshisekedi's government believes Kabila is behind the Rwandan and Ugandan incursions that have destabilized eastern DRC in recent months, and Tshisekedi sees Kabila as a threat to his presidency. •Kabila denies all charges, but has yet to explain why he chose now to return from self-imposed exile in South Africa to Rwanda-controlled Goma. SAHEL •A national conference of Mali's political figures backed the junta's proposal to appoint coup leader Assimi Goïta as interim president, with a five-year term. Key opposition figures boycotted the conference and objected to its move to legitimize Goïta's second attempt at the presidency. •Goïta's first attempt at becoming president failed in 2020 when regional bloc ECOWAS insisted on installing a civilian leader, so Goïta staged another coup in 2021. He was only a colonel then, but has since promoted himself to five-star general. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 30 April 2025 INDIA AND PAKISTAN •Pakistan's Information Minister, Attaullah Tarar, claimed to have "credible intelligence" that India is planning a military strike on Pakistan in the next 24-36 hours (from ~10 pm local time last night) in retaliation for what Tarar called India's "baseless and concocted allegations" that Pakistan supported the separatist militants who attacked a civilian train in Pahalgam, Kashmir last week. [Pakistan vehemently denies funding or encouraging militants in Kashmir.] •Tarar's claim is consistent with other media reports that India's Prime Minister Modi has been lobbying world leaders by phone and diplomats in person to make the case for striking Pakistan, and a targeted strike could come soon. •India carried out similar targeted strikes on Pakistani militants after deadly attacks on India in 2016 and 2019. Both previous Indian retaliatory strikes were limited in scope to precisely target "militant launch pads" and training camps connected to the preceding terrorist attacks. •Any imminent Indian military strike would likely follow the same pattern and be limited to targeting the safe havens and arsenals used by militants responsible for the Pahalgam attacks. Neither India nor Pakistan wants a broader war with its nuclear-armed archrival right now. VENEZUELA •Human Rights Watch (HRW) released a damning 104-page report yesterday condemning Pres. Maduro's crackdown on the opposition after he stole the July 2024 election. •The report's title offers a preview of its findings: "Punished for Seeking Change: Killings, Enforced Disappearances, and Arbitrary Detention Following Venezuela’s 2024 Election." •Inside the report, HRW cited credible reports that at least 25 protesters were killed in the immediate aftermath of the election, and over 2,000 people were detained for demonstrating or supporting the opposition. Those are both probably drastic underestimates of the true totals. UKRAINE •Pres. Zelensky said that Ukraine has agreed - at U.S. insistence - to an immediate and unconditional 30-day ceasefire, but complained that Russia has yet to commit to it - and instead launched over 100 drone attacks on Ukraine overnight. NORTH KOREA •South Korean intelligence reported that around 600 North Koreans have been killed fighting against Ukraine in Kursk. •Earlier South Korean reports estimated 4,700 total North Korean casualties (killed or injured) in Kursk, so a combination of the two figures suggests 4,100 of the casualties were injured and 600 were killed in action. RUSSIA •France's cybersecurity agency accused Russia's military intelligence organization, GRU, of staging almost 10 years of cyberattacks against French defense and intelligence targets. France's Foreign Ministry pounced on the accusation and said Russia should be barred from the UN Security Council for such "destabilizing activities." •Pres. Macron has been explicit about his desire to pressure Pres. Putin into agreeing to a ceasefire in Ukraine, and these new charges are probably part of Macron's pressure campaign.
Open source reportOff Leash update 22 April 2025 RUSSIA AND UKRAINE •Perhaps swayed by U.S. pressure to figure out a ceasefire, Pres. Putin told reporters that he's open to direct bilateral peace talks with Ukraine. It would be the first time the warring neighbors have engaged in direct talks since the early weeks of the war in 2022. •The U.S. has proposed a broad ceasefire plan that it hopes Ukraine and Russia will agree to, but the U.S. plan lacks key details that could become sticking points as negotiations develop. ISRAEL •Prime Minister Netanyahu is facing a new political crisis after his domestic security chief, Ronen Bar, accused him of making multiple improper and politically-motivated requests. •Bar - whom Netanyahu unsuccessfully tried to sack last month - claimed in an audacious affidavit to the Supreme Court that Netanyahu pressured Bar's domestic security service (Shin Bet) to spy on Israeli citizens involved in anti-government protests, asked Bar to side with him over the Supreme Court if a constitutional crisis should ever split allegiances, and tried to cajole Bar into signing an opinion that would have effectively pardoned Netanyahu from corruption charges he faces. [Netanyahu rejected Bar's letter as a "false statement" and said he plans to refute Bar's claims "in detail."] •Bar's bold accusations aren't as much of a threat to Netanyahu's political survival as the corruption charges he's contesting in court, but they give the Prime Minister's critics additional grounds to call for his resignation - which won't be forthcoming. SUDAN •The European Commission and its member states marked the end of this week's high-level summit on the war in Sudan - which excluded both parties fighting in it - with aid pledges totaling €522 million ($600 million). That's almost exactly double the amount the European Union earmarked for Sudan last year, but it doesn't come close to filling the $3.8 billion gap in additional emergency funding that the UN says Sudan still needs for 2025. •The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) weren't invited to the summit and continued fighting instead. The SAF accused the RSF of killing over 30 civilians yesterday in the course of its offensive to capture El Fasher, which is the capital of North Darfur and the only major city in Darfur that the RSF doesn't control. VENEZUELA •Venezuela bluntly rejected a proposal from El Salvador's Pres. Bukele to swap 252 Venezuelans deported from the U.S. to Salvadoran jail for the same number of political prisoners swept up in Pres. Maduro's post-election crackdown. •Maduro's attorney general, Tarek Saab (who is under U.S., UK, and EU sanctions for helping Maduro repress democracy in Venezuela), called Bukele's swap proposal "cynical" and accused Bukele of being a (fellow) "serial human rights violator" for his crackdown on gang violence. •Some Venezuelan opposition figures quickly welcomed Bukele's proposal, but their main leader, Maria Corina Machado, has yet to comment on it. VATICAN •Pope Francis passed away yesterday at age 88. Argentine-born Francis was the first non-European pope in over 1200 years, and he broke from his European predecessors in many ways: becoming the first pope to visit the birthplace of Islam (Saudi Arabia), refusing to judge homosexuals or divorcées, and overseeing radical (by Vatican standards) institutional change - though, as The Economist pointed out, "not as much [change] as he hoped." •A conclave of 135 cardinals under age 80 - all but 27 of whom were appointed by Francis - will now choose the next spiritual leader of the world's ~1.4 billion baptized Roman Catholics.
Open source reportOff Leash update 22 April 2025 RUSSIA AND UKRAINE •Perhaps swayed by U.S. pressure to figure out a ceasefire, Pres. Putin told reporters that he's open to direct bilateral peace talks with Ukraine. It would be the first time the warring neighbors have engaged in direct talks since the early weeks of the war in 2022. •The U.S. has proposed a broad ceasefire plan that it hopes Ukraine and Russia will agree to, but the U.S. plan lacks key details that could become sticking points as negotiations develop. ISRAEL •Prime Minister Netanyahu is facing a new political crisis after his domestic security chief, Ronen Bar, accused him of making multiple improper and politically-motivated requests. •Bar - whom Netanyahu unsuccessfully tried to sack last month - claimed in an audacious affidavit to the Supreme Court that Netanyahu pressured Bar's domestic security service (Shin Bet) to spy on Israeli citizens involved in anti-government protests, asked Bar to side with him over the Supreme Court if a constitutional crisis should ever split allegiances, and tried to cajole Bar into signing an opinion that would have effectively pardoned Netanyahu from corruption charges he faces. [Netanyahu rejected Bar's letter as a "false statement" and said he plans to refute Bar's claims "in detail."] •Bar's bold accusations aren't as much of a threat to Netanyahu's political survival as the corruption charges he's contesting in court, but they give the Prime Minister's critics additional grounds to call for his resignation - which won't be forthcoming. SUDAN •The European Commission and its member states marked the end of this week's high-level summit on the war in Sudan - which excluded both parties fighting in it - with aid pledges totaling €522 million ($600 million). That's almost exactly double the amount the European Union earmarked for Sudan last year, but it doesn't come close to filling the $3.8 billion gap in additional emergency funding that the UN says Sudan still needs for 2025. •The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) weren't invited to the summit and continued fighting instead. The SAF accused the RSF of killing over 30 civilians yesterday in the course of its offensive to capture El Fasher, which is the capital of North Darfur and the only major city in Darfur that the RSF doesn't control. VENEZUELA •Venezuela bluntly rejected a proposal from El Salvador's Pres. Bukele to swap 252 Venezuelans deported from the U.S. to Salvadoran jail for the same number of political prisoners swept up in Pres. Maduro's post-election crackdown. •Maduro's attorney general, Tarek Saab (who is under U.S., UK, and EU sanctions for helping Maduro repress democracy in Venezuela), called Bukele's swap proposal "cynical" and accused Bukele of being a (fellow) "serial human rights violator" for his crackdown on gang violence. •Some Venezuelan opposition figures quickly welcomed Bukele's proposal, but their main leader, Maria Corina Machado, has yet to comment on it. VATICAN •Pope Francis passed away yesterday at age 88. Argentine-born Francis was the first non-European pope in over 1200 years, and he broke from his European predecessors in many ways: becoming the first pope to visit the birthplace of Islam (Saudi Arabia), refusing to judge homosexuals or divorcées, and overseeing radical (by Vatican standards) institutional change - though, as The Economist pointed out, "not as much [change] as he hoped." •A conclave of 135 cardinals under age 80 - all but 27 of whom were appointed by Francis - will now choose the next spiritual leader of the world's ~1.4 billion baptized Roman Catholics.
Open source reportOff Leash update 14 April 2025 COMING UP THIS WEEK •The 2025 World Expo opened yesterday in Osaka, Japan. •Pres. Trump hosts El Salvador's Pres. Bukele at the White House today and Italy's Prime Minister Meloni on Thursday. •U.S. markets are closed on Friday for Good Friday, and Easter is this Sunday. •Saturday is the 250th anniversary of the start of the American Revolution. COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,397/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $28,950/ton •Cobalt: $33,700/ton •Copper: $9,155/ton •Gold: $3,223/toz •Lead: $1,914/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.47/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $62.03/barrel •Zinc: $2,652/ton IRAN •The U.S. and Iran held their first bilateral talks since 2018 on Saturday in Oman. Both sides seemed pleased with how it went, so they'll continue with a second round of talks starting Saturday in Rome. •Some (including me) had worried that the U.S. might make uncompromising demands - such as a complete dismantling of Iran's nuclear programs - in this first session, leading Iran to walk away from talks. •That didn't happen. Instead, the U.S. goal for this first session seems to have been to shift from the indirect format Iran wanted to a direct exchange. The U.S. achieved that goal: U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi reportedly met directly for 45 minutes at the end of a day of indirect talks. •Israeli officials remain concerned that the U.S. is being too soft on Iran. SAUDI ARABIA •The Trump administration also revived talks with Iran's regional arch-rival, Saudi Arabia, over the weekend. The U.S. and Saudi are considering a deal that would give Saudi access to U.S. nuclear technology - and could let Saudi enrich its own uranium in the future. •U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the details of an agreement are still hazy but "but it certainly looks like there is a pathway" forward. CHINA •China made another move in its escalating trade spat with the U.S.: Beijing suspended exports of certain rare earths to the U.S. in retaliation for higher U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods. •The NYT assessed that the White House hopes to stop the escalation with direct talks: "The U.S. administration has been waiting for the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, to call Trump, but Beijing appears wary of putting Xi in an unpredictable situation with the U.S. president." •Xi, meanwhile, is on a charm offensive through Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia) this week. His trip was planned long before Pres. Trump surprised those countries with high reciprocal tariffs (which were later paused), but it has taken on new significance after Trump's tariff announcements. Analysts believe Xi will now use his Asian meetings to counter-position China as a stable trade partner - in juxtaposition to the unreliable one keeping global markets on edge. •Separately, the UK took control of its last operating steel production factory from its Chinese owners, who lost interest in the loss-making blast furnaces but still control British Steel's more profitable milling segment. •The episode tainted the UK's trust in Chinese investment: UK business secretary Jonathan Reynolds accused the British Steel's Chinese owners of not negotiating "in good faith," and said future Chinese investment offers would need to clear a "high trust bar" after this. [More cynical voices accuse British Steel's Chinese owners of deliberately ruining its business at the behest and benefit of the Chinese government.] UKRAINE •Russia fired missiles at the Ukrainian city of Sumy during Palm Sunday celebrations yesterday, killing at least 34. •Early reports suggest the Russian missiles fell on Sumy in two waves: an initial one followed by a second that landed as emergency responders arrived to aid victims of the first wave. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash Update 26 March UKRAINE AND RUSSIA •Following three days of indirect negotiations in Saudi Arabia, Ukraine and Russia each agreed to "end the use of force" in the Black Sea and ensure "safe passage" of vessels through it - but under certain conditions that still seem far off. •In particular, Russia said it wouldn't put down its arms until the U.S. and EU lift their embargoes on Russian agricultural products - something the White House pledged to help Russia accomplish (and something Pres. Zelensky opposes as "a weakening of positions and a weakening of sanctions." •The EU is unlikely to agree to lift its sanctions anyway - even under U.S. pressure - and Pres. Zelensky complained that Russia was shifting the goalposts for a deal with new demands. It's clear that it will take further negotiations to secure a concrete Black Sea truce. GAZA •Hundreds of Gazans turned out to protest against Hamas in Beit Lahia in northern Gaza. It was a rare rebuke of the militant group that has ruled Gaza since 2007 - and drew it into war with Israel with its Oct. 7 attacks. Armed Hamas fighters broke up the demonstrations. DRC •Rwandan and pro-DRC government forces resumed fighting in North and South Kivu yesterday - despite agreeing to a ceasefire a day earlier. That ceasefire now looks as worthless as the others that came - and failed - before it. SUDAN •Sudan's military is facing criticism for an airstrike on a market in Darfur that reportedly killed dozens to hundreds of civilians on Monday. •The military denied targeting civilians, but both it and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) fighting it have been credibly accused of shelling civilian areas. •Separately, the army retook Khartoum airport from the RSF. SAHEL •Nigerien junta leader Abdourahamane Tiani was sworn in as the country's transitional president at the start of a five-year "flexible" transition back to civilian rule. •That follows a similar playbook to the one used by the juntas in Niger's fellow Alliance of Sahel States (Burkina Faso and Mali): grab power in a coup, then hold onto it for an extended period by promising to eventually transfer it to an elected government. It remains to be seen whether any of them will actually relinquish rule. IRAN •The U.S. slapped sanctions on three Iranian officials for their alleged involvement in the disappearance and probable death of ex-FBI Special Agent Robert Levinson. Levinson disappeared in Iran in 2007, and is believed to have died in captivity - though Iran never acknowledged abducting him or admitted he died on their watch.
Open source reportOff Leash update 24 March 2025 COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,623/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,450/ton •Cobalt: $33,610/ton •Copper: $9,856/ton •Gold: $3,029/toz •Lead: $2,017/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.94/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $68.18/barrel •Zinc: $2,928/ton UKRAINE •Ukrainian and U.S. officials met in Riyadh yesterday, and may continue their summit today. They aim to finalize details surrounding the 30-day pause on striking energy infrastructure. •U.S. officials in Riyadh will also meet with Russian officials today. Russia has already agreed to the pause on energy infrastructure strikes, so these meetings will seek to advance an additional maritime ceasefire. •China is reportedly considering contributing peacekeepers to uphold a post-war truce in Ukraine "in accordance with the wishes of the parties." Russia had previously rejected the idea of NATO peacekeepers in Ukraine, but would probably be more amenable if China participated in the mission. GAZA •U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff told Fox News Sunday that Hamas seemed to initially accept his bridge proposal to extend the Gaza ceasefire last week, but then reneged and rejected it. Witkoff blamed Hamas for the failure to find a truce and the descent to resumed fighting. •Israel targeted Hamas's prime minister in Gaza, Ismail Barhoum, killing him in a hospital where he was receiving treatment for injuries he sustained in another Israeli strike. Barhoum had only been prime minister for a few days after his predecessor was killed earlier in the week - also by an Israeli strike. •Hamas's health ministry said Gaza's wartime death toll has now surpassed 50,000. Hamas doesn't distinguish between dead civilians and combatants. •Israel's Security Cabinet inaugurated a new directorate to assist Palestinians who want to be resettled abroad, and the new directorate kicked off its mission by flying 70 Gazans with foreign citizenships or family ties to Europe, where they'll resettle. YEMEN •Yemen's Houthis fired a Palestine 2 ballistic missile in the general direction of Israel's Ben Gurion Airport, but it was easily intercepted before it reached Israeli airspace (despite Houthi claims that it reached its target). SUDAN •After seizing the presidential palace from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on Friday, Sudan's military continued to retake key sites in Khartoum. Over the weekend, it recaptured the Central Bank, the intelligence headquarters, and the Corinthia Hotel. •The army's recent success in Khartoum doesn't mean the war is over: the RSF still holds parts of the capital, as well as large swathes of western Sudan. DRC •Nearly a week after Presidents Tshisekedi and Kagame agreed on the necessity of imposing a ceasefire in eastern DRC, the leaders of the Rwanda-backed rebel umbrella group Alliance Fleuve Congo (which includes the M23) said it supported a truce and announced that its fighters would withdraw from the mining town of Walikale, which they captured the day after Tshisekedi and Kagame met in Doha. •Tshisekedi then kindly asked (but did not order) his troops to observe the ceasefire too. •Both sides seem skeptical of the truce and ready to resume fighting at any moment. Rwanda and the rebels it backs are not ceding Goma or their other major spoils of war, and the Congolese military warned that it "reserves the right to intervene in the event of any hostile movement likely to compromise the pause in fighting." 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 March 2025 COMING UP THIS WEEK •U.S. and Ukrainian officials will meet in Saudi Arabia starting tomorrow. Pres. Zelensky is in Saudi and said he was "fully committed" to negotiating an end to the war, but he won't participate in the U.S.-Ukrainian meetings; instead, he'll meet Saudi's Crown Prince MBS for economic talks while his delegates meet U.S. SecState Rubio et al. •Greenland goes to the polls tomorrow. While the question of independence from Denmark isn't directly on the ballot, analysts will be watching results to see if Greenlanders veer towards candidates in favor of greater autonomy for their island. •China, Iran, and Russia will hold joint naval exercises in the northern Indian Ocean this week. Several countries - including Pakistan, Qatar, South Africa, and the UAE - will send observers. COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,706/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,450/ton •Cobalt: $26,960/ton •Copper: $9,614/ton •Gold: $2,901/toz •Lead: $2,019/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.60/MMbtu - a three-year high due to supply constraints and cold weather •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $67.06/barrel •Zinc: $2,887/ton GAZA •France, Germany, Italy, and the UK said they would support Egypt's plan for post-war Gaza; however, that plan still faces significant hurdles: the U.S. and Israel have rejected it - Israel more vehemently than the U.S. - and so far no donors have stepped up to commit the first of the $53 billion needed to fund the plan. •Optimists are hopeful for a second-phase ceasefire agreement this week. Israel sent a delegation to Qatar today "in an effort to advance the negotiations," and Hamas said it has received "positive signals" from the Egyptian and Qatari mediators it's been working with. SYRIA •An independent monitor estimated that over 1,000 people - mostly civilians - have been killed in the past week's clashes between the new government's forces and loyalists to the deposed Assad regime in Latakia. •The Assad loyalists clashing with government troops don't appear to be centrally organized or led; rather, the Institute for the Study of War suggests there are multiple small groups of loyalists each independently declaring a "united" front against the new government. •Interim president Ahmed al Sharaa appealed for calm and asked Syrians "to be reassured because the country has the fundamentals for survival." IRAN •Pres. Trump said he wrote a letter to Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, proposing a revival of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran. •Khamenei seemed cold on the idea: he complained about "bullying governments" using talks "as a pathway to have new demands." •Pres. Pezeshkian, meanwhile, seemed more open to talks - but noted that Khamenei calls the shots: "My position has been and will remain that I believe in negotiations, but now we have to follow the parameters set by the supreme leader." UKRAINE •A group of civilian and military analysts unveiled a framework for a ceasefire in Ukraine that came out of their spring 2022 meeting in Geneva. Their proposal calls for a six-mile buffer zone along the 700-mile front lines, which would be patrolled by peacekeepers, including foreign troops (the UK and France have offered to send peacekeepers, but Russia rejected the idea). •Meanwhile, Russia is eroding Ukraine's gains in Kursk by pushing Ukrainian front lines back and cutting off supply chains to the ~10,000 Ukrainian troops in Kursk. Ukraine had hoped to use the parts of Kursk it recaptured last year as bargaining chips in a negotiated peace; Russia's recent counter-advance will leave Ukraine with less to offer in a truce. •Separately, Pres. Trump said he was "just about" ready to start sharing intelligence with Ukraine again - now that Ukraine is participating obligingly in peace talks in Saudi. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 March 2025 COMING UP THIS WEEK •U.S. and Ukrainian officials will meet in Saudi Arabia starting tomorrow. Pres. Zelensky is in Saudi and said he was "fully committed" to negotiating an end to the war, but he won't participate in the U.S.-Ukrainian meetings; instead, he'll meet Saudi's Crown Prince MBS for economic talks while his delegates meet U.S. SecState Rubio et al. •Greenland goes to the polls tomorrow. While the question of independence from Denmark isn't directly on the ballot, analysts will be watching results to see if Greenlanders veer towards candidates in favor of greater autonomy for their island. •China, Iran, and Russia will hold joint naval exercises in the northern Indian Ocean this week. Several countries - including Pakistan, Qatar, South Africa, and the UAE - will send observers. COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,706/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,450/ton •Cobalt: $26,960/ton •Copper: $9,614/ton •Gold: $2,901/toz •Lead: $2,019/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.60/MMbtu - a three-year high due to supply constraints and cold weather •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $67.06/barrel •Zinc: $2,887/ton GAZA •France, Germany, Italy, and the UK said they would support Egypt's plan for post-war Gaza; however, that plan still faces significant hurdles: the U.S. and Israel have rejected it - Israel more vehemently than the U.S. - and so far no donors have stepped up to commit the first of the $53 billion needed to fund the plan. •Optimists are hopeful for a second-phase ceasefire agreement this week. Israel sent a delegation to Qatar today "in an effort to advance the negotiations," and Hamas said it has received "positive signals" from the Egyptian and Qatari mediators it's been working with. SYRIA •An independent monitor estimated that over 1,000 people - mostly civilians - have been killed in the past week's clashes between the new government's forces and loyalists to the deposed Assad regime in Latakia. •The Assad loyalists clashing with government troops don't appear to be centrally organized or led; rather, the Institute for the Study of War suggests there are multiple small groups of loyalists each independently declaring a "united" front against the new government. •Interim president Ahmed al Sharaa appealed for calm and asked Syrians "to be reassured because the country has the fundamentals for survival." IRAN •Pres. Trump said he wrote a letter to Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, proposing a revival of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran. •Khamenei seemed cold on the idea: he complained about "bullying governments" using talks "as a pathway to have new demands." •Pres. Pezeshkian, meanwhile, seemed more open to talks - but noted that Khamenei calls the shots: "My position has been and will remain that I believe in negotiations, but now we have to follow the parameters set by the supreme leader." UKRAINE •A group of civilian and military analysts unveiled a framework for a ceasefire in Ukraine that came out of their spring 2022 meeting in Geneva. Their proposal calls for a six-mile buffer zone along the 700-mile front lines, which would be patrolled by peacekeepers, including foreign troops (the UK and France have offered to send peacekeepers, but Russia rejected the idea). •Meanwhile, Russia is eroding Ukraine's gains in Kursk by pushing Ukrainian front lines back and cutting off supply chains to the ~10,000 Ukrainian troops in Kursk. Ukraine had hoped to use the parts of Kursk it recaptured last year as bargaining chips in a negotiated peace; Russia's recent counter-advance will leave Ukraine with less to offer in a truce. •Separately, Pres. Trump said he was "just about" ready to start sharing intelligence with Ukraine again - now that Ukraine is participating obligingly in peace talks in Saudi.
Open source reportOff Leash update 27 Feb Ukraine •The new U.S.-Ukraine mineral deal is taking shape quickly: it was only announced Tuesday (though speculation was swirling before that), and Pres. Zelensky will fly to Washington tomorrow to sign the final agreement. •Negotiators leaked a draft of the agreement dated Tuesday to the media, and several outlets published the full text (https://t.co/WCfpbsvV3e). Some takeaways: oUkraine will put half of its revenues from future mineral and energy sales into a new, U.S.-controlled investment fund that will reinvest some of the funds into rebuilding Ukraine. oThe fund will only draw on revenues from new projects; proceeds from existing mines, oil wells, etc. are not part of this arrangement. oThe only reference to U.S. security guarantees is highly noncommittal - paragraph 10 says the U.S. "supports Ukraine’s effort to obtain security guarantees needed to establish lasting peace" - but Zelensky said he's content with that wording. Trump told his cabinet the onus for security guarantees should be on Europe - not the U.S. oTrump's initial demands for a $500 billion contribution target and Ukraine's commitment to repay twice the amount of any future U.S. aid were both omitted from the draft. •Ukraine has large untapped reserves of several critical minerals whose development could contribute to this fund, including uranium (Europe's largest reserves!), graphite, lithium, titanium, natural gas, and rare earths. However, around 40% of its mineral resources are in regions Russia controls - and would likely keep in a peace deal. Gaza •Hamas and Israel both fulfilled their part of a delicate hostage-prisoner swap yesterday: Hamas returned the remains of four deceased hostages - and crucially, did so without any of the macabre theatrics that marred prior handovers - and Israel began releasing the 600-plus Palestinian prisoners it agreed to free in return. •This swap went smoothly, but the Gaza ceasefire remains fragile, and Israel and Hamas still haven't agreed on terms for the second phase that begins on Sunday. •Israel estimates that Hamas now holds about 25 living and 30 deceased hostages. Syria •Prominent Syrians who attended Pres. al Sharaa's two-day nation-building conference this week left underwhelmed. Several said the summit was poorly organized, left out key stakeholders (like the Syrian Democratic Forces), and failed to make meaningful progress towards planning Syria's future. Venezuela •Pres. Trump announced that he was cancelling Biden-era concessions that allowed Chevron to continue producing and exporting Venezuelan oil because Pres. Maduro failed to implement promised electoral and immigration reforms. •Chevron's license to continue production and export despite sanctions brought an estimated $4 billion into Maduro's state coffers and represented around a quarter of Venezuelan oil production while it was in force. Sahel •The Alliance of Sahel States - Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger - unveiled a new flag for the triad their juntas formed in opposition to ECOWAS. •In keeping with their modus operandi of doing the opposite of whatever their former colonizer - France - would do, the flag they designed is an affront to modern vexillology that breaks all the important rules of flag design (no lettering, simple design a child could draw from memory, 2-3 basic colors that contrast well, etc.)
Open source reportOff Leash update 15 January Gaza •SecState Blinken reported that an Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal is "closer than it’s ever been before" and only awaiting Hamas's final approval. •Negotiators say Hamas seems ready to accept the terms on the table, and Israel has reportedly agreed too - though not publicly. Ukraine •A long-range Russian missile and drone attack targeted a Ukrainian oil depot and several other infrastructure sites around Lviv, forcing Ukraine to shut down its power grid in some surrounding areas. •Separately, unconfirmed reports suggest Australian citizen Oscar Jenkins - who was fighting for Ukraine when Russian troops captured him last year - has died in Russian captivity. Australia expressed "grave concerns" for his safety and threatened the "strongest possible action" if Russian forces killed him. South Korea •South Korean police detained Pres. Yoon Suk Yeol after a lengthy stand-off at his fortified residence. •Yoon is technically still the sitting president, although he was impeached and suspended last month over his brief attempt to impose martial law. •The Constitutional Court will first decide whether to uphold his impeachment, and - if it does uphold - whether to permanently remove him from office. China •Sunday is the deadline for TikTok's Chinese parent company to sell the video-sharing app or face a ban - unless the U.S. Supreme Court strikes the ban down before then. •The NYT reports that many of the app's 170 million U.S. users are reluctantly switching to alternative apps in anticipation of a ban. Ironically, one of the top alternative apps for "TikTok refugees" - as they're calling themselves - is also Chinese owned: Xiaohongshu (RedNote). Cuba •The U.S. will remove Cuba from its list of state sponsors of terrorism, in exchange for the Cuban government's agreement to free protesters jailed during its 2021 crackdown. •The designation has been a ping pong ball between U.S. Democratic and Republican administrations: Cuba was removed under Obama, added in the final days of Trump's first term, now removed again under Biden, and may be added again in Trump's second term. Oil Prices •Last week's fresh U.S. sanctions on Russian oil - and, in particular, the tankers carrying it - have caused supertanker shipping rates to surge. Current VLCC rates from the Middle East to China are up 39% since Friday. •The sharp rise in shipping rates suggests traders have - at least temporarily - stopped doing business with the sanctioned vessels, driving up competition and rates for non-sanctioned alternatives. •But grey and black markets always find workarounds, and the current sanctions only cover an estimated 35% of the ~670 tankers thought to be involved in shipping sanctioned (Russian, Venezuelan, or Iranian) oil anyway. Venezuela •Venezuela's opposition president-elect, Edmundo González Urrutia, landed in Guatemala yesterday - apparently after a six-day stop in the Dominican Republic. •González had planned to return from exile in Spain to Venezuela in time for inauguration day last Friday, but Pres. Maduro's security services blocked his return, and Maduro was uneventfully (and illegitimately) sworn in instead. •González met with Guatemala's Pres. Arévalo, and will probably pay visits to other regional leaders to rally support for his opposition, but it faces a tough uphill battle amidst Maduro's relentless crackdown. Mozambique •Daniel Chapo of the ruling Frelimo party was sworn in as Mozambique's new president today. His inauguration was as unexciting as Pres. Maduro's in Venezuela - and, Mozambique's opposition argues, as illegitimate.
Open source reportOff Leash update 8 January Sudan •The U.S. Treasury formally accused the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) of perpetrating genocide in Sudan and slapped additional sanctions on RSF leader Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (aka Hemedti) and seven Emirati companies that have helped him export gold and import weapons. •This is the second time the U.S. has called out genocide in Sudan: the first was 20 years ago when it sanctioned the Janjaweed - a precursor to the RSF back when the RSF was aligned with the military and before it started fighting against it - of genocide in Darfur. •The genocide accusation and attached sanctions won't have much of an immediate effect on the raging war since Hemedti is already well armed. In fact, the move could turn out to be counterproductive if it repels Hemedti from negotiations. •Meanwhile, the military is gaining ground against the RSF in Omdurman, which is across the Nile from Khartoum. Ukraine and Russia •Ukrainian drones targeted Kursk's Engel oil depot, which supplies many of the long-range bombers Russia is using to strike Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Russia claimed its air defenses intercepted the attack, mitigating its damage. •Despite Ukraine's new offensive in Kursk, Russia continues to gain ground inside Ukraine. Earlier this week, Russian forces captured the strategic eastern Ukrainian town of Kurakhove after months of fighting. •Some analysts think Ukraine's Kursk offensive is intended to draw Russian resources away from the front lines in Ukraine and slow Russia's advance there. Venezuela •Pres. Maduro announced the arrest of seven foreign "mercenaries" who he says were planning "terrorist acts" to disrupt his (illegitimate) inauguration on Friday. •Maduro said the group included two Colombian "hitmen," three "mercenaries" from Ukraine, and two U.S. citizens who were "very high level" (though he didn't say at what). •Maduro expressed confidence that the seven will confess "in the next few hours." Afghanistan •The WSJ reported that the Biden Administration is in talks with the Taliban to free three U.S. citizens from Afghan jail in exchange for the release of Muhammad Rahim al Afghani - a senior Al Qaeda leader with direct links to Osama bin Laden - from Guantanamo Bay. •The specific terms aren't agreed yet: for example, the Taliban says it is only holding two of the three Americans the U.S. requested (all of whom were jailed in the past two years under Taliban rule), and it wants the U.S. to release two more Afghan prisoners (who are not at Guantanamo) as well. •Biden's critics are already calling it a bad deal. It is... Gaza •Incoming Pres. Trump will send an envoy to Doha for last-ditch negotiations to try to secure a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal before Trump's inauguration on Jan. 20. Trump warned that "all hell will break out" if the talks fail to produce a deal before his inauguration. Other News •The UK's new electronic travel authorization (ETA) system goes into effect today. •Travelers to the UK from many non-European countries - including the U.S., Canada, Australia, and Mexico - will now have to apply for an ETA online (https://t.co/S6qsn94JfX or via iOS or Google Play apps) and pay a £10 ($12.51) fee with each application. •Processing takes up to three days, and authorizations are good for multiple entries over a two year period or until the authorized passport expires, whichever is shorter. •After April 2, travelers to the UK from European countries will need to apply for an ETA too.
Open source reportOff Leash update 18 Dec Russia •Ukraine claimed responsibility for yesterday's assassination of Russian general Igor Kirillov in Moscow, justifying the hit as retribution for orchestrating the "massive use of banned chemical weapons" against Ukraine as chief of Russia's nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons protection forces. •The U.S. was no fan of Kirillov, who frequently promoted unproven propaganda campaigns against the West. Nonetheless, U.S. officials reportedly tried to dissuade Ukraine from targeting the general on Russian soil out of concern that such a high-profile assassination could provoke Pres. Putin to lash out in revenge. Syria •Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu paid an unannounced visit to Mount Hermon in Syria and declared that Israeli forces would remain there on a temporary but indefinite basis, "until another arrangement is found that guarantees Israel’s security." •Syria's new leadership saw Netanyahu's declaration as an affront to the sovereignty they hope to establish in Syria. •As part of that quest for legitimacy, Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) chief - and self-proclaimed "president" of Syria - Ahmed al Shara announced the dissolution of all independent armed groups in the country and the integration of all fighters under a unified Defense Ministry. That seems ambitious, given that these factions have little in common except a former mutual enemy - ex-Pres. Assad - who's now out of the picture. •Some rebel factions are busy waging their own wars. In the northeast, the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) agreed to extend their temporary ceasefire "to the end of the week." After that, the Institute for the Study of War expects the SNA - perhaps alongside Turkish troops - to try to capture Kobani and other SDF-held territory. Gaza •Hamas said it is involved in "serious and positive talks" about a ceasefire in Gaza, and U.S. CIA Director Burns is in Qatar for meetings to try to finalize a truce and hostage release deal. Optimism is higher than usual, but hopes for a deal have been dashed before. Iran •A new Reuters report estimated that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) now controls up to half Iran's oil exports - a marked rise from the 20% of oil exports it controlled three years ago. •One reason for bringing a greater share of oil exports under the IRGC is that it gives the IRGC direct control of the estimated $25 billion per year in revenues its share generates. That represents a huge part - nearly half - of the government's $53 billion annual budget, and presumably the vast majority of the funds the IRGC spends supporting its proxies and allies abroad. •It's also easier for the IRGC than it is for private oil traders to flout Western sanctions: the IRGC is already a U.S.-designated terrorist organization, so the threat of more sanctions certainly won't encourage cooperation with a geopolitical rival. Venezuela •Venezuela's opposition president-elect, Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, accepted the European Union's Sakharov Prize for human rights at the European Parliament yesterday. •In a speech after accepting the prize, Gonzalez vowed to go "back to Venezuela by land, air or sea" in time to be inaugurated as Venezuela's rightful president on Jan. 10. [Pres. Maduro - who all independent evidence suggests lost the July election to Gonzalez - is also planning to be inaugurated on Jan. 10.] •Meanwhile, even friendly Canada has slapped sanctions on some senior Venezuelan officials who helped Maduro steal the election. New sanctions target the head of the supreme court, two judges, a prosecutor, and a member of the electoral body. Mozambique •After battering Mayotte - where authorities are still assessing the extent of the damage - Cyclone Chido hit Mozambique, killing at least 34 and destroying over 23,000 homes. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 28 Nov Lebanon •The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire that took effect yesterday is largely holding - although thousands of displaced Lebanese began to return to southern villages before Israeli forces withdrew and lifted movement restrictions. Israeli soldiers opened fire on "suspects" and vehicles that violated movement restrictions in at least six villages. •On the other side of the border, tens of thousands of displaced Israeli civilians seem more reluctant to trust the truce and aren't rushing to return to the homes they fled. •They have good reason to be wary: in its first official statement since the ceasefire announcement, Hezbollah vowed to continue its resistance and monitor the Israeli withdrawal from border regions with "hands on the trigger." •Despite its tough talk, Hezbollah was clearly the turkey in this deal: it lost an estimated 4,000 fighters and most of its senior leadership in the past three months and gained nothing from the truce except an end to a war Hamas started. Syria •Syria's Pres. Assad has long relied on Hezbollah and other Iran-backed Shia allies to keep rebel Sunni groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in check in the northwest. •Now conflicts with Israel have severely diminished Iran's proxies, and Al Qaeda-linked HTS spied an opportunity to gobble back territory around Aleppo. HTS and its allied factions launched their most significant attacks on Syrian government forces since the 2020 ceasefire, capturing the largest Syrian army base there - Base 46 - and encroaching to within three miles (five km) of Aleppo city. •Assad's air force - along with its Russian allies and unnamed "friendly forces" - claimed that it responded with a devastating counterattack, but local reports suggest fighting is ongoing - which would portend regime weakness and much more volatility to come. Ukraine •Pres.-elect Trump appointed Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Keith Kellogg to the new post of Special Envoy to Russia and Ukraine, where he'll be tasked with overseeing efforts to bring about a quick end to the war. •Analysts are looking to an April 2024 position paper Kellogg wrote for insight into how he might approach that task. One idea his paper suggested was "to put off NATO membership [for Ukraine] for an extended period" to draw Pres. Putin into negotiations. •Separately, Russia launched another massive barrage of drones and missiles at over 180 targets in western Ukraine near Lviv - far from the front lines. Ukraine intercepted a majority of the projectiles, but the handful that reached their targets took out electricity for over one million Ukrainians. China •According to the Wall Street Journal, Baltic investigators have a theory on how two undersea cables were severed on consecutive days last week. •Investigators believe the Chinese bulk carrier Yi Peng 3 deliberately dragged its anchor along the seabed for more than 100 miles (160 km) and across the two affected cables. As one investigator pointed out: "It’s extremely unlikely that the captain would not have noticed that his ship dropped and dragged its anchor, losing speed for hours and cutting cables on the way." •They don't think the Chinese government was involved, but they do suspect Russian intelligence was. (The Kremlin called these "absurd, unsubstantiated accusations.") Mexico •Pres.-elect Trump and Mexico's Pres. Sheinbaum spoke by phone yesterday to address Trump's concerns about illegal immigration through Mexico - and his threat to slap a 25% tariff on Mexican imports to the U.S. if Mexico doesn't address his immigration concerns. •Trump's readout suggested the conversation was easy as pie: he said Sheinbaum agreed to "stop Migration through Mexico, and into the United States, effectively closing our Southern Border." 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 26 Nov Tariffs •President-elect Trump said he would sign an executive order on his first day in office - Jan. 20, 2025 - to slap new tariffs of 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico, and 10% on China. Trump called the levies a "price" those nations must pay for their failure to stop the flow of illegal drugs and immigrants to the U.S. •All three affected countries immediately objected to the proposed tariffs. Canada objected politely, explaining that it's already working well with U.S. officials to block fentanyl trafficking "from China and other countries." •China, meanwhile, objected with hostility, calling the idea that it would deliberately send fentanyl precursors to the U.S. runs "completely counter to facts," and ominously warning that "no one will win a trade war or a tariff war." Hezbollah •It sounds like Israel and Hezbollah are close to finalizing a ceasefire deal that would give Israeli forces 60 days to withdraw from Lebanon and require Hezbollah to disarm along the border with Israel, where 5,000 Lebanese troops will deploy to help enforce the peace. •The terms of the latest proposal aren't public, but are said to closely track UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war. Except this time Hezbollah won't be allowed to rebuild its forces along the border. •Prime Minister Netanyahu and his cabinet will meet today to discuss the proposal, and Netanyahu is thought to be open to agreeing to the tabled terms - for once. That may mean Hezbollah and Lebanon gave in to his demand reserving the right to resume hostilities if Hezbollah breaks the truce first. •Meanwhile, Israeli forces have now reached the Litani River, which would form the northern frontier of the border buffer zone the Lebanese army will enforce after Israel withdraws south and Hezbollah withdraws north. Ukraine •Russia launched another new record number of drones at Ukraine overnight, once again targeting Ukrainian infrastructure. •Ukraine said it shot down or blocked most of the 188 drones that were launched over its border, but some reached their targets. •Russia is also making rapid gains on the ground: Reuters reported - citing analysts and war bloggers - that Russian ground forces are currently advancing at their fastest rate since 2022 using rapid, small-scale incursions to achieve footholds and then follow up with reinforcements to secure gains. •Meanwhile, Ukraine requested an emergency meeting of NATO ambassadors in Brussels today to discuss Russia's recent use of an intermediate-range ballistic missile against Dnipro last week. Ukraine hopes for "concrete and meaningful outcomes" from the meeting, but it's unlikely to win enthusiastic support from tired donors. Sudan •The Economist reported that the Sudanese army has made clear recent gains against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in central Sennar state and Khartoum in recent weeks. •The weakened RSF has signaled openness to a truce, but the army isn't willing to talk just yet. The RSF still controls most of southwest Sudan, and the army likely wants to improve its negotiating position by locking in more territorial gains before talks begin. Venezuela •Venezuela's opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado, called for a new day of demonstrations against Pres. Maduro's election theft on Dec 1. •Maduro's Minister of the Interior then accused Machado of orchestrating another conspiracy against Maduro and launched another bullying campaign against the opposition. In this case, police deployed to the Argentine Embassy to intimidate the many opposition figures from Machado's party who have taken refuge there.
Open source reportOff Leash update 20November Hezbollah •U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein said a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah is "within our grasp" after Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri relayed Hezbollah's positive feedback on the latest proposed terms. •Even if Israel and Hezbollah are able to work out a truce, maintaining peace would be a challenge. The tall task of ensuring security for the border areas Hezbollah previously occupied would fall on the enfeebled Lebanese military - which has been hollowed out by decades of partisan infighting and has not proven itself up to the task. Gaza •In a change of tack, Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu offered hostage captors a carrot - in addition to a stick: he announced a reward of $5 million and safe passage from Gaza for anyone who returns an Israeli hostage. He also reiterated the threat of the stick, vowing to make anyone who harms a hostage "pay the price." Haiti •Haiti's police clashed with Viv Ansanm gang members in the posh Port-au-Prince suburb of Pétionville early yesterday after Viv Ansanm's leader, charismatic ex-cop Jimmy Chérizier (aka "Barbeque"), announced plans to attack the area on social media the previous night. Chérizier specifically threatened managers of Pétionville hotels protecting politicians or "oligarchs" inside. •Chérizier's advance warning may have given police and local residents time to mount a counterattack. Local vigilantes fought alongside police, and together they killed 28 suspected gang members. •Separately, Doctors Without Borders (or MSF, using its French acronym) said it would end its work in Haiti because of "violence and threats" police have made towards medical aid workers. MSF gives medical assistance to all who need it - including gang members - and its ambulances have occasionally been targeted for transporting injured gangsters. Venezuela •The U.S. formally recognized Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia as the "president-elect" of Venezuela. •That's consistent with the vote tallies the opposition provided, which showed Gonzalez defeating Pres. Maduro by a margin of almost two to one. Those are the only credible tallies available, since Maduro's government hasn't provided data to support his claim to victory. •Gonzalez is no longer in Venezuela to assume the presidency: he fled to Spain in September, citing fears for his life amidst Maduro's crackdown on the opposition. Ukraine •Multiple accounts - including from UK and Ukrainian military officials and the BBC - concluded that Russia suffered more military casualties in October than in any other month of the war. The UK estimated a daily average of 1,354 Russians killed or injured on each day of October. •The UK now estimates that Russia has suffered 700,000 casualties over the 1,000 days of the war to date. •Separately, Ukraine said it fired U.S.-made Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) ballistic missiles at targets in Russia's Bryansk border region (west of Kursk) for the first time yesterday - two days after reportedly getting Washington's long-withheld approval to do so. o[U.S. media had initially reported that the authorization would only be for use in Kursk, but this adjacent province may have been included in the approval since it houses military arsenals that support the fighting in Kursk.] •Russia claimed it intercepted five of six missiles fired and damaged the sixth. A U.S. official said only two of eight missiles fired were intercepted, and the other six hit their targets inside a munitions depot. •Moscow complained about the ATACMS barrage, calling it a "qualitatively new phase of the Western war" and promising to retaliate "accordingly." 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 13 Nov Hezbollah •Israel's foreign minister told the media that "there is some progress in the attempts to reach a settlement in Lebanon," raising hopes for a ceasefire. •However, such hopes now seem premature: Israel's brand-new defense minister, Israel Katz, quickly reaffirmed that "there will be no ceasefire and no respite" until Israel achieves its objectives, which include the lofty goal of returning tens of thousands of northern Israelis to the homes they evacuated due to war. •For its part, Hezbollah said it hasn't received any new peace proposals and is "ready for a prolonged war" with Israel. •It may not last too long anyway. Israel's military said it has "dismantled a majority of Hezbollah’s weapons storage and missile manufacturing facilities" under the Hezbollah stronghold of Dahieh, Beirut. •That hasn't stopped Hezbollah from lobbing more rockets and drones at Israel. The group launched around 200 attacks this week; killing one Israeli soldier and two civilians in separate attacks on northern Israel. •Separately, there are unconfirmed reports that a recent Israeli strike on al-Qusayr, Syria killed Salim Jamil Ayyash: the Hezbollah operative who was accused of (and convicted in absentia by a UN-backed tribunal for) assassinating Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri in 2005. In addition to his tribunal sentence to life in prison, Ayyash had a $10 million U.S. bounty on his head. Yemen •Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis launched drones and missiles at two U.S. destroyers - USS Stockdale and USS Spruance - in the Bab al Mandeb strait off the coast of Yemen. •It sounds like it was a significant barrage: a Pentagon spokesman said it lasted for hours and involved five ballistic missiles, two cruise missiles, and at least eight kamikaze drones. •The Houthis falsely claimed they attacked the USS Lincoln aircraft carrier too, and erroneously claimed its attack "successfully achieved its objectives": the USS Lincoln didn't report any incidents and the destroyers intercepted all incoming projectiles and sustained no damage or injuries. Ukraine •Russia fired missiles at Kyiv for the first time in three months. Ukraine's air defenses intercepted both cruise missiles and both ballistic missiles, as well as 37 drones. Kyiv reported only mild damage to a warehouse and a single minor injury - both from falling debris. Some drones were still flying, though. Sudan •The U.S. Treasury sanctioned the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) commander in West Darfur, Abdel Rahman Juma Barkalla, because of the human rights abuses his troops committed in the region under his command - including kidnapping and killing the regional governor. •Separately, the UN undersecretary-general for political and peacebuilding affairs called for unspecified countries and third-parties to stop sending weapons to the RSF and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). •The UAE and Russia's Africa Corps (fka Wagner Group) are arming the RSF, while Egypt is closely allied with the SAF and Iran is reportedly considering sending weapons to the SAF. Niger •Niger's Mining Minister, Ousmane Abarchi, told state media that the junta had "already met with Russian companies that are interested in coming to explore and exploit Niger's natural resources... not only uranium." (Though uranium is the most significant natural resource Niger has: it's the world's seventh-largest uranium producer). •The junta seems open to handing over its minerals to Russia - especially if it means snubbing French companies like Orano, which was producing uranium in Niger before the coup. Abarchi said French companies won't be allowed to exploit Niger's minerals because France refuses to recognize the junta's power grab. Electric Vehicles •Volkswagen quintupled down on its investment in U.S. electric vehicle (EV) maker Rivian, raising its investment from $800 million to $5.8 billion.
Open source reportOff Leash update 29 October Steve Bannon, political prisoner has been released from Federal Prison. Incarcerated four months for contempt of congress. Gaza •Israel indicated openness to considering Egypt's proposal for a short ceasefire and small hostage release. Hamas hasn't responded yet, but my guess is that it would prefer to hold out for a lasting ceasefire instead of a short one. •Israel has lost 55 soldiers in Gaza this month, making this the deadliest month of the war for the Israeli military. •Israel's parliament approved a bill that would - if enforced - close down the UNRWA (the UN agency responsible for aid distribution and implementation in Gaza and the West Bank). •Israel contends that the UNRWA is too sympathetic to - and even supportive of - Hamas and its terrorism, and there seems to be a kernel of truth to that: of the 19 UNRWA officials that Israel accused of participating directly in the Oct. 7 attacks, UNRWA investigators cleared 10 but fired nine who they determined had possibly joined the attacks. •Israel's allies - including the U.S., UK, France, and Germany - oppose a ban on the UNRWA because it would shut off the only trickle of much-needed aid still flowing into Gaza [the International Organization for Migration (IOM) could step up to fill the gap, but its director said there's "no way" the IOM could replace UNRWA]. The allies are trying to talk Israel out of enforcing its new ban. Hezbollah •Hezbollah named Hassan Nasrallah's longtime deputy, Naim Qassem, as its new leader. •Qassem has seemed reluctant to assume the mantle of leadership - and the target it puts on his back. After Nasrallah's death, he quickly fled to Iran to avoid the Israeli airstrikes that were were picking off Hezbollah's succession chain in Lebanon. •Early reports suggest Qassem will stay in Iran and lead Hezbollah from there, which will make it harder for him to lead an organization already in disarray. Ukraine •The Pentagon warned that North Korean soldiers have arrived in the western Ukrainian region of Kursk and could soon join the front lines. •The U.S. now estimates 10,000 North Korean soldiers are receiving military training in Russia and will soon deploy to Ukraine. That's a significant increase on the original U.S. estimate of 3,000, but it matches South Korea's initial guess. •A Pentagon spokesman said that the U.S. could lift its restrictions on Ukraine's use of donated long-range weapons to strike Russia if North Korea joins the war on Russia's side. North Korean soldiers apparently have already joined the war, so we could soon see Ukraine carrying out longer-range strikes inside Russia. •Russia's defense ministry said it "is thinking about how to respond" if the ban is lifted and Ukraine starts firing at Moscow.
Open source reportOff Leash update 21 October Coming Up This Week •World Bank and IMF annual meetings take place in Washington, DC today through Saturday. Climate change programs are high on the agenda - although rich countries don't want to pay for them and indebted poor countries can't afford to. •Leaders of Commonwealth countries (the UK and most of its ex-colonies - or, roughly, countries that play cricket) meet in Samoa starting today. It's the first biennial Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting that King Charles III will lead. •Russia will host BRICS leaders for the bloc's 16th annual summit in Kazan tomorrow through Thursday. This will be the first opportunity for its new members (Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE) to join the namesake original members (Brazil Russia, India, China, and South Africa) for the meetings. [Saudi has been invited to join the bloc but isn't an official member yet and won't join this year's summit.] The group will discuss the possible future accession of up to 15 new members, including Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. •Uruguay and Japan will both vote on Sunday. A leftist opposition candidate, Yamandú Orsi, leads Uruguay's presidential polls, but not by enough to avoid a runoff. In Japan's snap poll, the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party hopes to recover public trust it lost in recent financial scandals, but it risks losing ground to a divided opposition. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,552/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,100/ton •Cobalt: $23,995/ton •Copper: $9,472/ton •Gold: $2,733/toz - an all-time record high •Lead: $2,034/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.28/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $70.34/barrel •Zinc: $3,082/ton Cuba •Cuba suffered four nationwide electrical grid failures over the weekend. •The energy minister blamed power plant problems, and it's no surprise that the island's outdated plants are failing: Fidel Castro once called them "prehistoric." The eight plants that produce Cuba's electricity are almost 50 years old - nearly twice their useful life - and poorly maintained. •The government seems to expect some blowback over the grid failures: Pres. Diaz-Canel appeared on national television (between blackouts) in fatigues to urge Cubans to express their frustrations peacefully. Middle East •Israel carried out airstrikes against Hezbollah's financial partner, Al-Qard al-Hasan, in Lebanon, and against Hamas in northern Gaza. •Militants in Hezbollah targeted PM Netanyahu's coastal residence, Caesarea, in a drone strike over the weekend. One drone penetrated Israeli air defenses but caused no casualties. Ukraine and Russia •Yulia Navalnaya - the widow of murdered dissident Alexey Navalny - told BBC that she intends to continue her late husband's fight against Pres. Putin: "I will do everything to make his regime fall as soon as possible." •Navalnaya also said she intends to run for president of Russia as soon as Putin is out of the picture (she rationally fears returning to Russia while Putin is still in power because his government - which killed her husband - has accused her of extremism too). •Separately, Ukraine sent hundreds of drones into several regions of Russia overnight. Russia intercepted most of them, but one penetrated Russian air defenses and struck a military explosives manufacturer deep inside Russian territory. •Russia also targeted Kyiv with airstrikes over the weekend. North Korea •South Korea's spy agency studied satellite photos to conclude that at least 1,500 North Korean Special Forces troops are fighting for Russia in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine previously warned that North Korea plans to send up to 10,000 troops to the war. Other News •Moldova voted yesterday on a referendum deeming EU membership a "strategic objective." The outcome is too close to call but slightly tilted in favor of closer ties with (and, eventually, membership in) the EU - despite Russia spending around €100 million supporting the other side.
Open source reportOff Leash update 19 Sept Middle East •A day after Israel's trojan horse attack remotely detonated thousands of Hezbollah members' pagers across Lebanon, a follow-on attack remotely detonated hundreds of Hezbollah walkie-talkies. The second round of blasts killed at least 20 and injured over 450 (fewer devices exploded but they were larger devices - and thus larger explosions). •The NYT published a great article describing how Israel pulled off the operation: https://t.co/G8tTPgOKLT. •Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant issued a video statement that didn't specifically mention the Lebanon blasts (which Israel hasn't officially acknowledged - and won't acknowledge), but said the military's focus is "moving north" - i.e., towards Hezbollah. •Israel did, however, acknowledge overnight airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, including a weapons depot near Khaim. •Separately, the UN General Assembly (UNGA) overwhelmingly passed a non-binding resolution calling on Israel to end its occupation of Palestinian territories within 12 months. There are no penalties if Israel ignores the order, but the opprobrium adds to Israel's isolation at UNGA. •The Economist said the UNGA vote also "undermines America's weakening clout" at the UN: the U.S. could only rally 12 other countries to join it and Israel in voting against the resolution. Ukraine and Russia •Geolocated footage showed that Russian troops captured the Donetsk town of Ukrainsk. •While Russia continues to make slow progress in Donetsk, Ukraine is trying to stall the Russian advance at its source by striking military bases and weapons depots before they can deploy to the front lines: a new Ukrainian drone attack in Toropets ignited an arms warehouse with a blast so big that Russian state media said the town of Toropets had to be evacuated. •Vox assessed that Ukraine's targeted strikes inside Russia "are likely meant to send a signal to allies that despite the war grinding on, Ukraine isn’t beaten, and that its allies aren’t backing a lost cause." Venezuela •Venezuela's president-elect - who's now in exile in Spain - said Pres. Maduro's Vice President, Delcy Rodriguez, forced him to sign a letter recognizing Maduro's fraudulent victory after "very tense hours of coercion, blackmail and pressure" before he fled the country. •VP Rodriguez's brother Jorge - who teamed up with his sister to force Gonzalez to sign the letter when they visited him at the Spanish Embassy - presented the letter during a televised press conference yesterday. •Jorge Rodriguez then tried to blackmail Gonzalez into recanting his claim that he was blackmailed into signing the letter by threatening to release an audio recording that Rodriguez says will disprove Gonzalez. •Meanwhile, Maduro's Attorney General, Tarek Saab, instructed prosecutors to issue arrest warrants for Argentina's President Javier Milei, the head of Milei's office (who happens to also be his sister), and Argentina's Security Minister. •Venezuela argues that Argentina illegally seized a Venezuelan Emtrasur Cargo Boeing 747-300FM plane in Aug. 2022 - at the request of the U.S. •Argentine-Venezuelan relations are sour - the plane seizure was just a symptom of their enmity - so Milei is highly unlikely to visit Venezuela and expose himself for arrest. •India's far north, majority-Muslim region of Jammu-Kashmir voted in regional elections for the first time in a decade yesterday. Despite a fresh wave of disruptive militant attacks, local leaders are hopeful that the vote will help the region regain some of the political autonomy it lost when the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party stripped it of its statehood in 2019. •The U.S. Federal Reserve cut its main benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point to 4.75-5.00%. That's a bigger cut than the quarter point the market was expecting, which suggests Fed governors are confident that inflation is under control.
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 Sept Syria •Israel targeted a government research institute in Masyaf, Syria, killing at least 18. •Reuters reported that a team of Iranian scientists was working at the institute, which produces short- and long-range missiles and drones that Iran sends to its proxies, including Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. (The facility also produces chemical weapons that Pres. Assad uses on his own people). Israel •A Jordanian gunman killed three Israeli civilian workers at the Allenby Bridge border crossing. Jordan has a vigilant security service and strong security ties with Israel (though many Jordanians sympathize with their Palestinian neighbors), so attacks like this are rare. This was the first one along the Jordanian-Israeli border since Oct. 7. •Meanwhile, Israel targeted a Hamas command that it said was "disguised in the humanitarian area in Khan Younis," killing at least 40. Hamas said the casualties were displaced civilians and denied hiding militants among them. Venezuela •Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado vowed to stay in Venezuela and "take part in the struggle from here" while the candidate she supported in July's election, Edmundo Gonzalez, supports the cause from exile in Spain. •Gonzalez joins a long list of Venezuelan opposition leaders - and even mere sympathizers - driven into exile. The NYT interviewed five others who served as election observers but fled to exile in Colombia after (rightfully) asking questions about election results. •Those that didn't flee are being rounded up in Pres. Maduro's Operation Knock Knock - a nationwide manhunt for people who attended opposition protests or posted pro-opposition content online. Thousands have been arrested so far. China •Foreign direct investment in China hit a record low of negative $14.8 billion in the second quarter. •Perhaps in response, Communist Party leaders removed two industries - publishing and traditional medicine production - from the list of sectors barring foreign investment. There are still 29 industries on the restricted list. Ukraine •Ukraine launched a significant drone attack on Moscow overnight. Russia acknowledged the attack and closed three of Moscow's four airports to activate air defenses that it claims shot down 144 Ukrainian drones. •Ukraine claimed Moscow also launched a reciprocal drone attack on Kyiv. Mexico •Mexico's upper chamber is weighing a controversial constitutional change that will swap 7,000 judges with new, popularly-elected replacements. •The proposal was easily passed in the lower chamber last week, and there are rumors that enough upper chamber swing legislators have swung in favor of the amendment and are ready to pass it. •AMLO is pitching the change as a much-needed judicial reform, but the plan's myriad critics say it will expose judges to stronger political influence from Morena leaders - or worse, from bad actors like drug cartels. Other News •Fresh off local elections that resulted in big gains for the far right - and smarting from two deadly stabbings committed by rejected asylees - Germany said it would expand border patrols and strengthen a "hard line" on illegal migration. •Separately, Australia's government announced plans to ban children from social media - though it didn't confirm where the age cutoff would be.
Open source reportOff Leash update 29 Aug Venezuela •One of Venezuela's top election officials, Juan Carlos Delpino, directly discredited Pres. Maduro's account of the vote for the first time this week. •Delpino - who is one of two opposition-aligned members of the five-person National Electoral Council (CNE) responsible for organizing elections and certifying their results - told the NYT that his council "had not received any evidence" that Maduro won a majority of the vote, and lamented that the CNE had "failed the country." He spoke from hiding, fearing for his safety. •His fear is reasonable: Maduro's security forces continue to arrest Venezuelans who dare support the opposition. Perkins Rocha - opposition leader Marina Corina Machado's lawyer and close confidante - was among those arrested this week. •With Diosdado Cabello now appointed Minister for the Interior, Justice, and Peace; we can expect the crackdown to worsen: Cabello has previously said that Machado and opposition president-elect Edmundo Gonzalez should be "behind bars." Israel •Hamas said the 10 Palestinians Israel killed in its West Bank operations Tuesday and Wednesday were among its members. •There's a polio outbreak in Gaza, and the UN hopes to innoculate 640,000 Palestinian children with vaccines to stop the spread of the virus - starting this weekend. •Israel reportedly authorized temporary and localized humanitarian pauses in the fighting in Gaza to facilitate vaccinations, but evacuations, displacement, and ongoing fighting will certainly complicate the process. Yemen •Iran says its Houthi proxies in Yemen have agreed to a truce to let rescuers assess the Sounion oil tanker its missiles damaged and set alight. However, the Houthis say they only agreed to allow a tugboat to come tow the ailing - and possibly leaking - Sounion away. Either way, we'll soon learn how big of an environmental risk the damaged tanker is. Ukraine •Ukraine used F-16s to shoot down incoming Russian cruise missiles on Monday, marking the first aerial kills by the new (to Ukraine) jets. •Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Norway have pledged a total of 85 F-16s for Ukraine; because only a few of them have arrived so far, Ukraine is only using the few it has against targets like these cruise missiles that can't shoot back. •Separately, Ukrainian drones targeted the Zenit oil depot deep inside Russia's Kirov region, causing two fires. It's the first time Ukraine has struck Kirov, which is 700 miles (1,125 km) inside Russia. Russia •In response to new U.S. sanctions against Russia, Russia permanently banned 92 U.S. citizens - including journalists, lawyers, professors, and business executives - from entering the country. •Among those banned were 14 WSJ employees, including WSJ editor in chief Emma Tucker. Given the 16 months their colleague Evan Gershkovich spent in Russian jail before he was finally released in a swap last month, I doubt anyone from the WSJ was eager to visit Russia anytime soon anyway. Other News •French authorities charged Telegram founder Pavel Durov with a slew of crimes related to illegal activity others committed on his platform. He was released on bail of €5 million ($5.5 million) and barred from leaving the country. Free speech advocates and tech companies are preturbed that the creator of an online forum can be held liable for crimes others use it to commit.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 23 Aug Ukraine •According to Ukraine's commander-in-chief, Gen. Syrsky, Ukrainian troops have now advanced as far as 35 km into Kursk. •Russia has shifted some troops from Chasiv Yar to defend against the Kursk invasion, but the operation hasn't diverted Russian forces away from Ukrainian front lines as much as Ukraine hoped it would. •Russia still has the upper hand in Pokrovsk, for example, and Ukrainian troops there just withdrew to avoid being encircled. •Last week, German prosecutors issued an arrest warrant for a Ukrainian allegedly involved in the 2022 attacks sabotaging the Nord Stream pipelines. Now German anger at the possibility that Ukraine was behind the attacks is morphing into new scrutiny of German support for Ukraine. •Chancellor Scholz insisted that Germany remains "Ukraine's biggest national supporter in Europe," but his unpopular ruling coalition is facing popular and fiscal pressure to reduce its overall spending - as well as its spending on Ukraine. Venezuela •Venezuela's Supreme Tribunal of Justice - which Pres. Maduro stacked with supporters - unsurprisingly ruled in his favor and certified his fraudulent election victory. •The court said its ruling was based on "national and international experts" and was "supported by the tally reports issued by each of the vote machines" - though the vast majority of "international experts" are certainly not on Maduro's side (save a few Chinese techs that are helping Maduro steal the vote), and neither Maduro nor the court has released any tally reports to support their claims. •The opposition, meanwhile, has released online tallies showing that its candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez, won seven million votes to Maduro's three million. The court said the opposition's tallies were forged. Afghanistan •Afghan women lost their figurative voices when the Taliban took over in 2021; now they're losing their voices in a more literal way - and losing other rights, too. A new 114-page Taliban document now forbids women from talking loudly (even inside their own homes), singing or reading the Koran in public, or merely looking at men they don't know. •The new edict also forbids Afghan men from trimming their beards. •One Afghan former civil servant told The Telegraph: "The international community’s engagement with the Taliban has emboldened them to further suppress women," and that seems plausible. •In a further sign of international engagement with the Taliban, the UAE officially accepted a Taliban ambassador today. That makes the UAE the second country - after China - to legitimize the Taliban government by accepting its ambassador.
Open source reportOff Leash update 20 August Gaza •SecState Blinken said Israel has accepted the U.S.'s "bridging proposal" for a ceasefire deal that Blinken called "probably the best, maybe the last" chance to free Israeli hostages. •However, various media reports (e.g. from Axios) suggest PM Netanyahu is only approving the updated terms - which include some of his new demands - because he knows Hamas will reject them. •Indeed, Hamas hasn't formally responded, but it complained that the current terms were biased towards Israel and include "new conditions" it can't agree to, like Israel keeping control of the Philadelphi corridor and implementing a mechanism to prevent weapons smuggling from the south of Gaza to the north. •Egyptian and Qatari mediators are less optimistic than Blinken about a deal, but Iran seems to be holding off on its threatened response to (alleged) Israeli assassinations to allow time for talks to unfold. •Meanwhile, Hamas operatives collaborated with Islamic Jihad - a fellow Palestinian militant group in Gaza - in a botched attack on Tel Aviv on Sunday night. •The militant groups said it was a suicide bombing - which would make it the first suicide bombing in Israel in eight years - however, Israeli police didn't confirm that the assailant died when his explosives detonated early. Their only reported casualty was a bystander who sustained moderate injuries. Ukraine •Ukraine destroyed the third Seim River bridge - of three that Russia could use to reinforce its defense against Ukraine's incursion into Kursk. Ukrainian Air Force commander Gen. Mykola Oleshchuk celebrated the third strike on Telegram: "Minus one more bridge!" •Those three bridges were also the main retreat routes for Russian defenders, so their destruction has left an unknown number of Russian soldiers cut off and at risk of finding themselves in "kettles," as Russia's military calls encirclement. •Pres. Putin certainly won't allow that kind of embarrassment without a rebuttal. As the NYT assessed: "Russians who know President Vladimir Putin expect him to lash out in response, believing that his military has the upper hand." •Putin has already ordered a regiment of his Aerospace Forces to Kursk. China •Chinese and Philippine coast guard vessels collided early yesterday morning near Sabina Shoal in part of the disputed Spratly Islands that China, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Taiwan all claim. As usual, both sides blamed the other for the collision. •The two sides had just signed what the Philippines called a "preliminary understanding" to prevent future confrontations like this in the South China Sea. •After accusing China of ramming its boats yesterday, a Philippine official said, "we are of course disappointed again." Afghanistan •A deputy spokesman for the Taliban government reiterated the Taliban's claim that it's in full control of security within Afghanistan and there are no terrorist groups operating in the country. •Afghanistan's neighbors don't believe that. Pakistan has suffered numerous cross-border attacks by militants taking refuge in Afghanistan, and Iran plans to complete an ambitious program to secure its 200 mile (330 km) border with Afghanistan later this year.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 7 Aug Bangladesh •Student protesters in Bangladesh demanded that Pres. Shahabuddin ask Nobel peace prize winner Muhammad Yunus to lead the interim government after PM Hasina fled the country. •Yunus - who founded Grameen Bank, the world's first major microfinance lender, and was persecuted under Hasina's government - immediately agreed. •China finally bowed to U.S. pressure and enacted restrictions on three chemicals used to make fentanyl. •An estimated 100,000+ people (perhaps far more) Americans died from synthetic opioid overdoses in 2023, and China is one of the main sources of the chemicals used to make synthetic opioids. That's why the Biden administration has sought China's cooperation against fentanyl trafficking for almost three years. •These new chemical restrictions aren't a perfect solution, but they're a start. However, analysts believe China will point to this minor concession to demand larger U.S. concessions on issues it cares more about, like reducing tariffs or relaxing rules on exporting sensitive tech to China. •Separately, China used a Long March 6A carrier rocket to launch the first 18 of the "Thousand Sails" internet satellites that will eventually form a 15,000-satellite constellation to rival SpaceX's Starlink. Venezuela •Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico are urging Pres. Maduro and the opposition to respect Venezuelan law and lodge their appeals over the election Maduro stole through the appropriate channels (which include courts Maduro has stacked). •While that's not as forceful of a statement against the stolen election as other world powers have made, it's still significant that the three leftist-led countries have declined to recognize Maduro's re-election. It would be bolder of them to reject it - as the U.S. and EU have done. •The NYT reported that Maduro thought he had the election locked up, but was then surprised when supporters turned against him and voted for the opposition instead. •Maduro bizarrely blamed "international Zionism" for what he called a "coup d'etat" in the media's coverage of the election, which consistently shows him losing the vote. He still shows no inclination to admit his official stats are wrong. Gaza •Hamas appointed Yahya Sinwar - a bellicose senior figure thought to be the architect of the Oct. 7 attacks - to succeed Ismail Haniyeh as the group's political leader. •That collapses the chances of a near-term peace deal to near zero. •Roughly 300 Ukrainian (and pro-Ukrainian Russian) fighters in U.S.-made Stryker vehicles launched an incursion into Kursk, Russia yesterday morning, marking the largest Ukrainian attack on Russia since the war began. A Forbes staff op-ed called the operation "pointless" and "a shameful waste of precious military resources." •Russia says it repelled the incursion, but it reported three "civilian" deaths and at least 18 injuries. Ukraine says its fighters took out two T-62 tanks and a Kamov Ka-52 helicopter (with its crew), and took a few prisoners. Some reports say it's not over yet. •Separately, The Economist estimated that Russia's summer onslaught is forcing Ukraine to retreat by up to one kilometer per day. Sahel •Niger joined its fellow junta state, Mali, in cutting off diplomatic ties with Ukraine after Ukraine's alleged support for Tuareg rebels that embarrassed the Wagner mercenaries fighting alongside Malian soldiers in the north late last month. •Ukraine tacitly acknowledged supporting the Tuaregs, saying the rebels "received all the necessary information they needed" to locate and fight the Wagner-backed soldiers. •Russia didn't refer to the Tuaregs by name, but as "armed terrorist groups." That's misleading, because they're mostly ethnic Berber nomads and not Al Qaeda or Islamic State-aligned jihadists. But calling them "terrorists" helps Russia portray the Mali battle as part of the "Africa front" it accuses Ukraine of opening in their war.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 24 June Coming Up This Week •WSJ journalist Evan Gershkovich will go on trial in Yekaterinburg, Russia on trumped-up espionage charges starting Wednesday. The media will be locked out of the trial, which could last between four months and one year. •Iran will vote for a successor to late president Raisi on Friday. The clerics have blocked most reformist candidates from running...which could backfire and split conservative support between five hardline candidates, leaving the sole moderate candidate allowed on the ballot - Masoud Pezeshkian - with a greater share of the vote than he would've otherwise received (he's still unlikely to win - and even if he wins, unlikely to effect change from the mostly-symbolic presidency). •On Saturday, the UN will hold a conference on Afghanistan in Qatar, and the Taliban will attend for the first time. To the dismay of some rights campaigners, the UN dropped all the preconditions that deterred the Taliban from attending the two previous UN conferences on Afghanistan - like including women's rights on the agenda - to encourage Taliban participation. •The first round of France's snap parliamentary election will also take place on Saturday. Polls predict strong support for the far-right Rassemblement National. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,514/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $22,900/ton •Cobalt: $27,150/ton •Copper: $9,683/ton •Gold: $2,332/toz •Lead: $2,191/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.70/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $80.87/barrel •Zinc: $2,844/ton Russia •Gunmen carried out several coordinated attacks on churches, synogogues, and police stations in two cities in the restive, majority-Muslim Russian region of Dagestan. •Russian authorities said the attackers were "adherents of an international terrorist organization," and their tactics and high degree of coordination recall Islamic State-Khorasan's (IS-K's) attack on Crocus Hall three months ago, but no group - including IS-K - has claimed the Dagestan attacks yet. •Pres. Putin prefers to brush ethnic and religious tensions under the rug to preserve pro-Russia harmony, so these latest attacks will be another annoyance for him. Some pro-Putin politicians are already blaming the West (without evidence) for inciting them. Ukraine •Russian authorities also blamed the U.S. for supplying the ATACMS missiles they say Ukraine used in a strike on Crimea that ended up killing at least four civilians on a crowded beach in Crimea yesterday. •[To be clear, Ukraine didn't target a crowded beach: Russia intercepted missiles headed for military targets (which Russia says the U.S. helped identify) as they flew over a crowded beach, causing fragments to fall on beachgoers below.] Gaza •Prime Minister Netanyahu told an interviewer that Israel's current ground offensive in southern Gaza is "about to end," and suggested that he could redeploy some of the troops fighting there to the north to intimidate - and perhaps eventually fight - Hezbollah. •Meanwhile, Israel's Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, is in Washington this week to lobby for continued U.S. support for Israel. Afghanistan •Nicaragua appointed a "non-resident" ambassador to Afghanistan, but stopped short of officially recognizing the Taliban government. The new envoy, Michael Campbell, is also Nicaragua's ambassador to China, and will serve both roles from his office in Beijing. •Afghanistan scored a surprise upset against Australia in the T20 Cricket World Cup on Saturday. I don't understand anything about cricket or how it's scored, but I can tell from the media's gushing reports that Afghanistan's "148/6 (20)" was an impressive win over the reigning champion's "127 (19.2)". Afghanistan plays Bangladesh tomorrow and could still make the semi-finals. Energy in Africa •Guinea-Conakry's junta signed a memorandum of understanding with Russia's Rosatom for an ambitious project to build a floating nuclear power plant.
Open source reportOff Leash update 18 June Russia •Russia's Pres. Putin began an unannounced two-day trip to North Korea today. He's hoping to strengthen his friendship with one of the few world leaders still willing to send him weapons, and Kim Jong Un is hoping Putin will lend Russian assistance to North Korea's nascent satellite surveillance programs. •Both Russia and North Korea deny that they are arms trading, but Putin proclaimed that they are building "alternative mechanisms of trade" that aren't "controlled by the West" (i.e., subject to sanctions). •This was Putin's second trip to North Korea. His first - in 2000 - was the first time a Russian president visited the Hermit Kingdom. North Korea •While strengthening ties with Putin's Russia, Kim has been aggravating tensions with his southern neighbor. South Korean officials say North Korean soldiers have been laying mines and installing anti-tank barriers along the demilitarized border that divides the two Koreas since January. •South Korea reported firing warning shots earlier today to repel 20-30 North Korean soldiers who temporarily crossed over the border while building a barrier. Their incursion seemed accidental and they did not return fire. China •China opened an anti-dumping investigation into EU pork imports that analysts widely see as a retaliation for the EU's new tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs). •Beijing is likely targeting EU pork instead of a perfectly reciprocal levy on EU EVs because a tariff on EU-made EVs would also harm the Chinese brands making cars in Europe. •Meanwhile, the U.S. sided with the Philippines in its latest spat with China over Chinese bullying in the South China Sea. The U.S. called China "aggressive" for seizing two Philippine supply boats after colliding with a third one, and U.S. diplomats reiterated a warning that a 1951 treaty obligates the U.S. to defend the Philippines in case of an armed attack. Ukraine •A Ukrainian drone targeted one of Russia's two oil terminals in the southern port city of Azov, igniting a large fire. Hezbollah •While SecState Blinken tries to keep hope for an Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal alive, another senior U.S. envoy - White House adviser Amos Hochstein - is visiting Lebanon to lobby for an agreement between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah to end their cycle of tit-for-tack strikes over the border. •Hezbollah has linked its strikes to Israel's war in Gaza, so it would be unlikely to agree to a truce before the Gaza war ends.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 13 June Ukraine •G7 leaders are reportedly close to agreeing on a compromise that would lend Ukraine around $50 billion now to rebuild destroyed infrastructure - and repay the loan over time using interest from frozen Russian funds. Ukraine will need much more than $50 billion to rebuild. •As part of its fundraising efforts, Ukraine announced a new plan to auction off around 20 state-owned companies - including the landmark Hotel Ukraine in Kyiv, as well as some mining and chemical companies. The proceeds would plug some of the gaping hole in Ukraine's budget. Russia •Russia responded to new U.S. sanctions by announcing an immediate ban on trading in dollars or euros on its main bourse, the Moscow Exchange (MOEX). •The ban won't really matter because most MOEX traders have already switched from dollars or euros to Chinese yuan. As one Russian commodities trader told Reuters: "We don't care [about the ban], we have yuan. Getting dollars and euros in Russia is practically impossible." •Meanwhile, four Russian navy vessels arrived in Havana harbour, in what the BBC called "a show of force amid tensions with the West over the war in Ukraine." Cuban officials were quick to clarify that none of the boats have any weapons aboard. The U.S. is monitoring them anyway. China •After an EU investigation concluded that government subsidies give Chinese electric vehicle (EV) makers an unfair competitive advantage over European manufacturers, the EU proposed a plan to level the playing field by imposing new tariffs of up to 38% on cheap Chinese EV imports. •China decried the EU's decision and urged the bloc to reverse its "wrong direction" on tariffs, but the reality is that Chinese EVs are so much cheaper than EU competitors that even a 38% tariff won't make up the difference: in 1H 2023, the average retail price of a Chinese EV was $33,000 vs. $70,700 in Europe. •[U.S. 1H 2023 EV prices were roughly in line with the EU's at $72,000, and the U.S. has since slapped a stiffer, 100% tariff on imported Chinese EVs.] Yemen •Yemen's Houthis used a "drone boat" - along with aerial drones and ballistic missiles - to attack a Liberian-flagged, Greek-owned bulk carrier, the Tutor. The Tutor's captain later reported that "the vessel is taking on water, and not under command of the crew" after a second impact. DRC •DRC's new government - including its first-ever female prime minister - was sworn in yesterday after months of delays due to disagreements over appointments. South Africa •South Africa's top court rejected an appeal by ex-Pres. Zuma's new MK party that sought to stop Zuma's former African National Congress (ANC) party - and his political rival, Pres. Ramaphosa - from forming a government. •According to preliminary indications, the Democratic Alliance (DA) and Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) have already agreed to join the ANC's national unity government, bringing it over the majority it needed. •That government is expected to re-elect Pres. Ramaphosa tomorrow. Other News •The NYT reported that Saudi Arabia is on the verge of approving a plan to invest up to $2 billion in a hostile takeover of the disorganized array of global professional men's boxing promoters and sanctioning bodies. •The consultant-advised plan would see today's confused tangle of boxing organizations brought together under a single entity representing around 200 top male boxers in a model similar to that of the UFC, which has steadily stolen fightsport fans away from boxing.
Open source reportOff Leash update 12 June Hezbollah •An Israeli strike in southern Lebanon killed four Hezbollah commanders, including a very senior one, Taleb Abdallah (aka Abu Taleb). Hezbollah then retaliated by firing a barrage of around 150 rockets into northern Israel. •The NYT assessed that Israel's strikes in Lebanon are designed to push Hezbollah back across the Litani river so that its rockets are farther out of striking range - and so that over 150,000 displaced civilians can eventually populate a buffer zone at the border. Gaza •Hamas submitted a formal response to the U.S.-pitched (but Israeli-originated) ceasefire proposal, and SecState Blinken - who has been shuttling around the Middle East trying to rally support for the plan - exasperatedly acknowledged that some of the changes Hamas demanded in its response were not "workable." •Hamas and a smaller Gazan militant group aligned with Hamas (Palestinian Islamic Jihad) said they were prepared to "deal positively to arrive at an agreement," but Blinken's unmasked disappointment with Hamas's response suggests there's still a big gap between the two sides. •Israel hasn't formally accepted the proposal either, but SecState Blinken said PM Netanyahu had privately "reaffirmed his commitment to the proposal" on Monday. Netanyahu prefers to stall and see if Hamas kills the proposal first - rather than risk losing his right-wing coalition partners by signing a deal Hamas won't accept anyway. •Separately, an independent UN investigation found both Israel and Hamas guilty of committing war crimes, and additionally accused Israel of crimes against humanity for killing tens of thousands of civilians (who Hamas militants are using as human shields). Israel responded to the report by accusing its authors of "systematic anti-Israel discrimination." Ukraine •Ukraine used replenished stocks of anti-aircraft missiles to intercept 29 of the 30 incoming missiles and drones Russia fired across the border overnight. That's a much better success rate than Ukraine was able to achieve when it had to ration dwindling air defense supplies. •Pres. Zelensky boasted that this high success rate could be a "daily achievement" if Western partners send more air defense supplies. •On that note, the U.S. said it would send Ukraine a second Patriot missile system. This one will come from Poland after the U.S. troops it's currently protecting there rotate back home in the coming weeks. Haiti •Haiti's new interim prime minister, Garry Conille, appointed a new cabinet, ousting most of the ministers from former PM Henry's ineffective government. South Africa •Former president Zuma's upstart uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party is seeking to spoil the election in which his former African National Congress (ANC) party lost its majority. •MK filed formal objections alleging widespread irregularities in the poll - without offering any evidence to support its claim - and filed legal papers to block the ANC from convening its first parliamentary session on Friday. •Zuma's appeals are unlikely to reverse election results, but they may hinder the ANC's progress forming a national unity government. That may be Zuma's real goal anyway: Zuma despises his successor and bitter rival, Pres. Ramaphosa, and would be pleased to see the ANC struggle to re-elect Ramaphosa. Other News •Malawi's president confirmed that his vice president, Saulos Chilima, was killed in a plane crash along with nine others. The crash was attributed to bad weather. •A fire broke out in a dilapidated and overcrowded building housing migrant workers in southern Kuwait, killing at least 41. Deputy PM Sheikh Fahad Yusuf Saud Al-Sabah criticized "the greed of real estate owners" who chose to skimp on proper maintenance and safety measures.
Open source reportOff Leash update 11 June Gaza •The UN Security Council (UNSC) passed a U.S.-backed resolution supporting the latest Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal, with Russia abstaining instead of blocking the vote with a veto. The UNSC's support is symbolically important because it conveys broad international backing for a deal, but ultimately only Israel and Hamas can sign off on this deal. •To that end, SecState Blinken is on his eighth trip since Oct. 7 to the Middle East with a straightforward message for the foreign leaders he'll meeting with: "If you want a ceasefire, press Hamas to say, yes." •Blinken is portraying Hamas's assent as the only remaining obstacle to a ceasefire deal, but Israel hasn't agreed to the current terms yet, either. •It's true that the current terms were originally conceived by Israel before Pres. Biden leaked them to the media (on a Friday night after Israel's ultra-orthodox - who oppose offering Hamas any concessions - had powered off their phones for the sabbath), but PM Netanyahu will have a hard time selling the deal to his most conservative supporters, who have threatened to abandon his fragile coalition if he fails to destroy Hamas. •Meanwhile, NBC News reported that the U.S. is considering a separate bilateral deal with Hamas to release five American hostages. It's not clear what the U.S. would offer Hamas in return. Ukraine •Ukraine claimed it successfully destroyed one of Russia's ~14 remaining Sukhoi Su-57 fighter jets in a drone strike on the Akhtubinsk airfield inside Russia. Initial reports suggest Ukraine used its own drones in the strike - not advanced Western weapons it recently got permission to use inside Russia. •Separately, an investigation by BBC Russia and Mediazona found that over 19,500 Wagner mercenaries died in the "Bakhmut meat grinder" between Jan. 2022 and Aug. 2023. That's consistent with the "over 20,000" men that Wagner's late founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said he lost in the grueling battle for the town. •The new report said over 17,000 of the men Wagner lost in Bakhmut were former prisoners that Pres. Putin pardoned in exchange for their commitment to fight. Yemen •Yemen's Houthi rebels said they interrupted an "American-Israeli spy cell" after arresting around 12 UN personnel and staff of a U.S.-funded pro-democracy group, the National Democratic Institute. U.S., Israeli, and UN officials declined to comment. Afghanistan •Russia's foreign ministry said it's considering removing the Taliban from its list of terrorist organizations in order to facilitate dialogue on "issues such as drug trafficking, terrorism, and organized crime." •Delisting could be the first step towards recognizing the Taliban government. [Russia - which lost global allies after invading Ukraine and is eager for international friends - would be the first country to officially recognize the Taliban government.] Other News •A plane carrying Malawi's vice president, a former first lady, and eight others went missing in bad weather. Pres. Chakwera said authorities are searching through thick brush with "every fiber of hope that we will find survivors."
Open source reportOff Leash Update 6 June Gaza •Israel and Hamas are reportedly still far from agreement on the terms of the latest U.S. ceasefire proposal. Indirect talks continue in Qatar. •Meanwhile, Israel launched a new operation against Hamas in Bureij and Deir al Balah, central Gaza. Israeli forces are hunting Hamas militants "above and below ground," including at a site that Israel says was a Hamas compound hidden in a school. Gaza's health ministry claimed Israel's strike on the school killed 27 people seeking shelter there - not Hamas militants. •A NYT investigation found that Israel planned and funded an ongoing social media campaign to influence U.S. lawmakers to support the war in Gaza by planting pro-war posts by fake "American" users. •Israel's campaign was among the AI-based influence operations Meta and OpenAI recently said had targeted their platforms over the past six months [Russia, Iran, and China also ran similar campaigns.] Both companies said none of the foreign influence campaigns had a widespread impact. Russia •Pres. Putin lashed out at Western countries - especially Germany - for allowing Ukraine to use their donated weapons to strike targets inside Russia. •The U.S. and UK have also given Russia permission to use their weapons to strike Russia, although the U.S. only ok'ed strikes on Russian regions near Kharkiv. •He warned that Russia would reciprocate in kind: "If someone thinks it possible to send such weapons to a war zone to strike our territory and create problems for us, then why do we not have the right to send our weapons of the same class to those regions of the world where strikes can be made on sensitive facilities of the countries that do this against Russia?" •[I would note that Russia was the first to use foreign-supplied weapons in cross-border attacks: it uses North Korean missiles and Iranian drones in Ukraine.] •I highly doubt Russia would consider direct strikes on German, American, or British soil because of the risk of igniting WWIII. Rather, Putin will probably try to target Western assets or personnel in Ukraine. Iran •The UN's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) voted 20-2 (with 12 abstentions) to approve a resolution rebuking Iran for refusing to give IAEA inspectors access to its nuclear sites. •The two no votes were cast by Russia - which buys Iranian drones to use in Ukraine - and China - which circumvents sanctions to buy cheap Iranian oil. •The IAEA censure resolution isn't enforceable, but the fact that 20 countries voted to approve it may add a tiny bit of political pressure on Iran to cooperate with inspectors. (Unlikely) Venezuela •Pres. Maduro uninvited European Union observers from monitoring his farcical July 28 presidential election on hyperbolic grounds that EU compliance with "genocidal sanctions" on Venezuela is "interventionist." •The EU hadn't accepted Maduro's invitation anyway. •Plus, observers don't need to fly to Venezuela to conclude that the election won't be fair: Maduro is already manipulating the vote by bullying the opposition and blocking its strongest candidates from running against him. Other News •A lone gunman wearing a vest labeled "Islamic State" in Arabic and "IS" in English opened fire near the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon. He was quickly shot and arrested. Islamic State hasn't officially claimed the attack yet.
Open source reportOff Leash update 17 May Ukraine •Russia's rapid recent advances have Ukraine and its allies worried, and a senior U.S. military official hinted - for the first time - that NATO will probably eventually send military trainers to Ukraine to support its defense directly: "we'll get there eventually." •Deploying U.S. or NATO troops to Ukraine would not only put NATO trainers at risk on the battlefields; it would also raise the risk of turning Russia's war on Ukraine into a broader Russia vs. NATO war. •Though Ukraine is struggling to repel Russian advances in the north, it carried out two days of successful drone strikes on Sevastopol in occupied Crimea. Satellite images showed at least three destroyed Russian jets and significant damage to buildings, including a power substation. Russia •Pres. Putin finished his two-day trip to China with a visit to Harbin, a northeastern Chinese city with strong Russian ties where China carries out some of its most advanced defense research. •Putin's trip seemed to go well, and he'll probably benefit from some of the defense technologies developed at the research centers he visited in Harbin. Pres. Xi even hugged him goodbye in a rare show of affection between the two uncuddly leaders. Gaza •Israel is sending more ground troops to support its invasion of Rafah, which started out as a limited incursion to avoid crossing the "red lines" Pres. Biden set. Even with added troops in Rafah, Israel will still likely stay clear of any real "red lines" that could jeopardize U.S. weapons shipments. •Aid shipments began arriving in Gaza via the new, U.S.-built pier that opened this week. CentCom was careful to clarify that no U.S. troops went ashore in Gaza during or after the construction of the pier. •The Arab League met in Manama and called for a return to pre-1967 borders and the deployment of a new UN peacekeeping force in "the occupied Palestinian territories" (Gaza and the West Bank). •A UN spokesman responded that it would be premature to send peacekeepers to Gaza now: "there first has to be a peace to keep." North Korea •Kim Jong Un's influential sister, Kim Yo Jong, denied that North Korea has supplied any weapons to Russia, calling suggestions otherwise "the most absurd paradox." •The U.S. and South Korea disagree: they believe North Korea has sent Russia artillery, missiles, and other conventional weapons; and some analysts think North Korea's recent short-range missile tests were demonstrations of weapons it planned to sell to Russia. Mozambique •Human Rights Watch reported that some of the perpetrators of Al Shabaab's May 10 attack in Cabo Delgado were child soldiers as young as 13, suggesting the Islamic State-aligned terrorist group (which is unrelated to Somalia's Al Shabaab except in name and violent inclination) is getting desperate for new recruits. •It's a war crime to recruit and employ child soldiers - but groups like Al Shabaab aren't exactly upstanding defenders of the UN Optional Protocol to the Convention on the Rights of the Child. Other News •Billionaire data privacy defender Frank McCourt said he was amassing a group of investors to offer to buy TikTok from its Chinese parent company. •McCourt sees the acquisition as an opportunity to "create the alternative to the current internet, which has been colonized by large platforms," and envisions a new scenario where users can "control their identity, [and] own and control their data." Note: he should have just invested in https://t.co/fvHOU3SWuy
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 May Gaza Pres. Netanyahu was displeased with Pres. Biden's threat to stop sending certain highly destructive weapons to Israel if Israel launches a full-scale invasion of Rafah (even though Israel appears to have toned down its ambitions for Rafah to a smaller-scale operation that probably won't cross Biden's red line) Netanyahu - who must appease hardliners - insisted Israel could (theoretically) carry out the full-scale plan alone: "If we need to stand alone, we will stand alone...if necessary we will fight with our fingernails." It probably will not be necessary. Ukraine and Russia Ukrainian drones struck two oil depots and a refinery deep inside Russia over the past 24 hours: one was over 700 miles (1,100 km) inside the border. An oil expert estimated to the NYT that the attacks incapacitated over 10% of Russia's refining capacity - though given the importance of oil to Russia's war funding and foreign earnings, it'll surely be rebuilt quickly. During Pres. Xi's visit to Hungary, nationalist president Orban enthusiastically endorsed China's 12-point peace plan for Ukraine. The Chinese plan was released to great fanfare over a year ago (Feb. 2023) but has failed to gain much traction: Hungary is the only European country to endorse it. China's promise to invest in building a BYD electric vehicle production plant in southern Hungary may have helped secure Orban's support. Separately, EU member states agreed to a plan to use the proceeds (e.g. interest) from Russian central bank funds frozen in European banks to augment Ukraine's defenses and fund post-war reconstruction. Those proceeds are expected to free up about €3 billion ($3.3 billion) per year. Sudan Human Rights Watch accused the Rapid Support Forces and its (mostly Arab) allies of genocide against the (non-Arab) Massalit in El Geneina, West Darfur. The report called for an investigation and an arms embargo on Sudan. Sahel Chad's military ruler and incumbent interim president, Mahamat Idriss Déby, was declared the winner of a very predictable election after sidelining rivals - lethally in one case. The opposition cried foul.
Open source reportOff Leash update 8 April Yesterday marked the 30-year anniversary of the start of Rwanda's 100-day genocide. President Kagame - who is running for re-election in July - commemorated the occasion with a ceremony celebrating the country's progress under his leadership since then. A total solar eclipse will cross the U.S. from Texas to Maine this afternoon. A map here shows the total eclipse path and partial eclipse gradients. Pres. Biden is hosting a trilateral summit with Japan's PM Kashido and Pres. Marcos Jr. of the Philippines Wednesday. They're expected to discuss maritime cooperation to counter China's influence in the South China Sea. South Korea votes in parliamentary elections on Wednesday. Pres. Yoon isn't up for election, but his party's performance in the vote will be a sign of his own popularity. Commodity Prices Aluminum: $2,451/ton Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $13,450/ton Cobalt: $28,550/ton Copper: $9,330/ton Gold: $2,339/toz Lead: $2,124/ton Natural Gas (Nymex): $1.79/MMbtu WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $86.31/barrel Zinc: $2,639/ton Gaza Israel said it withdrew a division of ground troops from Khan Younis and southern Gaza "to recuperate and prepare for future operations," and Palestinians returned to the rubbled city. Some analysts suggested that the "future operations" part could portend a ground invasion of Rafah, which Israel has been planning for months. Meanwhile, Israel carried out another airstrike in southern Lebanon, killing the commander of Hezbollah's Radwan Brigade, which Israel blames for firing rockets into its northern villages. Separately, the International Court of Justice began hearing Nicaragua's case against Germany over German military and financial aid for Israel. Nicaragua argues that Germany's support has "contributed to the commission of genocide" in Gaza. Finally, Egypt's Al Qahera reported cautious optimism that Israel and Hamas had agreed on basic points in their ongoing ceasefire talks in Cairo. However, Hamas corrected that report by saying talks were still stalled. Iran U.S. officials expect Iran to launch a "significant" retaliatory attack in revenge for Israel's strike that killed seven Iranian military officers in Damascus. Some suggested Iran could strike either within Israel or against U.S. or Israeli facilities (like embassies) in other countries. To me, a direct strike on Israel seems unlikely, since it would be a disproportionate and dangerous escalation that Israel would force Israel to respond similarly. It also seems unlikely that Iran would pull the U.S. into the fray with an attack on a U.S. facility. Pres. Raisi's chief of staff even wrote to Washington warning the U.S. to "step aside" and avoid involvement so it doesn't "get dragged into Netanyahu's trap." It's more likely that Iran will find a way to retaliate with a limited and targeted operation against a specific Israeli target that placates its hardliners who are demanding action but avoids angering Israel into re-retaliating. Ukraine The International Atomic Energy Agency said Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station - which has been under Russian control since Feb. 2022 - sustained damage yesterday from drone attacks that damaged its reactor and killed one person. Russia accused Ukraine of "nuclear terrorism," but Ukraine insists it wasn't involved and instead suggested Russia was responsible - though it's unclear why Russia would strike a nuclear plant it controls. Ecuador stormed the Mexican Embassy in Quito to arrest Jorge Glas, a former Ecuadorian vice president who took refuge in the compound in December to avoid a prison sentence for corruption. Mexico was offended by the affront and promptly cut diplomatic ties with Ecuador. NYT analysts pointed out that Ecuadorian president Daniel Noboa likely calculated that arresting Glas would boost his sagging approval ratings ahead of an election next year.
Open source reportOff Leash 4 April Ukraine Videos of the aftermath of Ukraine's drone strike deep inside Russia's Tatarstan showed that the weapon was possibly delivered by a converted $90,000 Aeroprakt A-22 single-propeller sport plane (or perhaps two of them) modified for the task. Analysts noted that the high-bank-for-buck converted drone is extremely scalable, so we could see Ukraine use more of them in the near future. Russia Russian defense minister Sergey Shoigu held an unusual call with his French counterpart, Sébastien Lecornu, yesterday. Shoigu reportedly warned Lecornu against deploying French troops to Ukraine [even though France is nowhere close to sending troops, and the idea was just a remote future possibility Pres. Macron raised last month without EU backing]. Shoigu also told Lecornu that Russia is ready to take part in peace talks, but its ongoing escalations on the battlefield suggest otherwise. Gaza Global media reported widespread condemnation of the Israeli strike that killed seven food aid workers from celebrity chef José Andrés's World Central Kitchen NGO. Andrés himself angrily accused Israel of targeting a marked humanitarian convoy "systematically, car by car." Pres. Biden said he was "outraged and heartbroken" by the strike, and U.S. SecDef Austin also criticized it with a warning that it raised concerns about Israel's ability to differentiate civilians and humanitarian personnel from militant targets if and when it embarks on a looming ground offensive in Rafah. Israel's military chief of staff offered as much of an apology as we'll probably ever hear from an Israeli official at his rank over the strike: "It was a mistake that followed a misidentification, at night during the war in a very complex condition. It shouldn’t have happened." China TSMC's semiconductor factories appear to have withstood the earthquake that hit Taiwan on Wednesday with no major damage, and are already nearly back to normal production rates. Since TSMC makes around 90% of the world's advanced chips, its resilience in an earthquake was good news for chipmaking, which has been operating near peak capacity since rebounding from COVID-induced supply chain problems. Venezuela Pres. Maduro accused the U.S. of building "secret military bases" in the large, oil-rich chunk of Guyana that Veneuzela disputes and calls Essequibo. Maduro may be using such provocative escalation to stir up fear and justify his plans to "defend" the disputed region as Venezuela's own. Other News The speaker of South Africa's parliament tendered her resignation amidst an investigation into allegations that she took bribes in exchange for awarding defense contracts while she was defense minister. Despite her resignation and the criminal charges that followed it, she denies wrongdoing.
Open source reportOff Leash 2 April Update Iran Israel carried out a brazen strike on Iran's consulate in Damascus, Syria, killing seven Iranian military advisors - including three generals. Israel acknowledged the strike but rejected the notion that the building was a diplomatic facility and said it was a military building instead. The distinction is important because - as one NGO director noted - targeting a known diplomatic building would be "akin to targeting Iran on its own soil." Israel seems to be escalating its covert war on Iranian targets in a manner calculated to hinder Iran's offensive operations without drawing it and its proxies into all-out war. Indeed, Iran's response to the Damascus strikes was cautious: Tehran vowed revenge "at the appropriate time and place." Its proxies were more audacious in their revenge threats: the head of the Iraq-based, Iran-backed Hezbollah Brigades militia threatened to arm over 12,000 Jordanians to exact retribution on Israel for the Damascus strike. Israel and Gaza Israel's Knesset passed a law that will allow PM Netanyahu to temporarily block foreign media outlets from operating in the country on national security grounds, and Netanyahu said he will promptly use the new law to ban Al Jazeera, which he has accused of being "a Hamas mouthpiece" and a "terrorist channel" for its sympathetic coverage of Palestinian causes. The White House called the looming ban "concerning" for its challenge to the free press. Separately, the NGO World Central Kitchen (WCK) said an Israeli airstrike killed seven of its foreign national aid workers in Gaza. Israel said it was "carrying out an in-depth examination" of the "tragic incident," and it's already drawing criticism from the aid community. Ukraine and Russia Ukraine launched a drone assault on an oil refinery deep inside Russia in Tatarstan, which is over 600 miles (1,000 km) from the Ukrainian border. Local authorities said the attack caused minimal damage but later conceded several people were injured. China Chinese electronics firm Xiaomi rolled out its new, Porsche-looking Super Ultra 7 (SU7) electric vehicle yesterday, and surprised the market with 90,000 orders for it on the first day - even though it launched in a market already crowded with inexpensive competitors. Xiaomi shares rose 16% on news of its strong first day of sales, raising the firm's enterprise value above that of traditional automakers GM and Ford. DRC Pres. Tshisekedi appointed Judith Suminwa Tuluka to be DRC's first female prime minister. Tuluka was formerly DRC's planning minister, and will now be called upon to craft a plan to bring peace to the restive east of the country. North Korea North Korea fired a suspected intermediate-range ballistic missile into the sea off its east coast early this morning - its third this year. The UN is no longer monitoring the sanctions violations that helped supply North Korea with kit for building missiles like this, thanks to a recent Russian veto on a motion to extend the monitoring program. Some analysts linked Russia's veto to an alleged weapons procurement agreement between Moscow and Pyongyang.
Open source report