Wider Middle East Escalation and Maritime Risk

Off Leash update 20 July 2026

COMING UP THIS WEEK •Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burhnam is set to become the next British prime minister today. •Tomorrow, Lebanon's Pres. Aoun will become the first Lebanese president in almost 20 years to visit the White House. •The Commonwealth Games start Thursday in Glasgow, and Comic-Con runs from Thursday through Sunday in San Diego, California. •On Friday, Pres. Trump will attend a rescheduled White House Press correspondents' dinner. Security will be tight to prevent another incident like the shooting that derailed the first dinner. •The 113th Tour de France ends Sunday on the Champs-Élysées in Paris.

COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,151/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $35,176/ton •Bitcoin: $64,220 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $13,526/ton •Ethereum: $1,863 •Gold: $4,021/toz •Lead: $1,883/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.86/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $82.74/barrel •Zinc: $3,526/ton

IRAN •Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) said that two oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz via the southern route Iran has called "unsafe" and warned ships not to use were - passive voice intentional - "exploded and were forced to cease movement." The IRGC didn't explicitly say it fired on the imperiled tankers, but nobody else is striking ships along the southern route that the U.S. Navy is trying to secure. •At least three U.S. soldiers were killed in combat over the weekend: two died in an Iranian missile attack on a U.S. base in Jordan that left another serviceman missing, and one died during a botched operation to defuse a downed Iranian drone in northern Iraq. •U.S. SecState Rubio says the U.S. is still open to negotiating with Iran, and there are limited signs of ongoing diplomacy. But discreet peace talks are getting much less airtime than the nine straight nights of airstrikes the U.S. has carried out on Iranian infrastructure (and Iran's retaliatory attacks on regional allies of the U.S.). •The NYT, citing analysts, warned that infrastructure strikes and U.S. casualties represent an escalation that could prove hard to walk back from.

YEMEN •Indeed, Iran reportedly called on its proxy in Yemen, the Houthis, to help ignite a regional conflict by closing the Bab al Mandeb maritime chokepoint if the U.S. strikes Iran's power grid. •The Houthis recently reopened a long-frozen conflict with Saudi Arabia, and seem ready to join their sponsor's side in a regional war.

LEBANON •Lebanon's Pres. Aoun will use his meeting with Pres. Trump tomorrow to seek Trump's help pressuring Israel to make good on its commitment to withdraw from two "pilot zones" in southern Lebanon so the Lebanese Army can assume control of them. •That's the first step in a U.S.-backed agreement signed June 26 to end fighting between Israel and Hezbollah. Aoun will then want further U.S. (and international - but not Israeli) help to disarm Hezbollah.

UKRAINE •Ukraine struck two warehouses belonging to the Russian online retailer Wildberries. Pres. Zelensky said the warehouses were being used to "supply sanctioned components for drone production and navigation equipment." •They're also symbolic targets for Ukraine's efforts to disrupt daily Russian life and bring the war home to Russians, whose president has sought to isolate them from the effects of the conflict. •Russia responded with one of the largest bombardments yet on Kyiv. The Russian barrage is likely to amplify Zelensky's calls for more Patriot missiles to defend against future such strikes.

UK •Andy Burnham - who will become the UK's next prime minister today . •He faces tough challenges governing at the national level. He'll want to maintain good ties with the U.S. and Pres. Trump, make plans to revive Britain's sluggish economy, and ease a fractious debate about immigration.