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Iranian hardliners weighed targeting subsea cables in the Strait of Hormuz amid expectations within the regime that war will eventually resume.
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Iranian hardliners weighed targeting subsea cables in the Strait of Hormuz amid expectations within the regime that war will eventually resume.
Open source reportGeography
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Strait of Hormuz dossier
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Strait of Hormuz
Trump demanded reconsideration of a rejected 15-point peace proposal, extended the deadline for Iran to lift its Hormuz blockade, and threatened strikes on Iranian power stations if Tehran failed to comply.
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Chronology
They're also considering targeting subsea cables in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iranian hardliners weighed targeting subsea cables in the Strait of Hormuz amid expectations within the regime that war will eventually resume.
Open source reportMaritime data showed that daily traffic through the chokepoint dropped to near its lowest level since May 12 - and 90% below pre-war levels - this week.
Maritime data showed daily traffic near its lowest level since May 12 and approximately 90% below pre-war levels during the week of August 13.
Open source reportIn reality, both the U.S. and Iran seem to have just enough "control" over the Strait to ensure the other can't unilaterally reopen it.
Both countries appear to possess enough control over the Strait of Hormuz to prevent the other from unilaterally reopening the chokepoint.
Open source reportMohammad Reza Naqdi, a top advisor to the commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), told PBS that "the American military is weaker than what we perceived," and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted on X that the U.S. "has long miscalculated due to intelligence failures," citing the war on Iran and the debacle in the Strait as examples of U.S. miscalculations.
IRGC adviser Mohammad Reza Naqdi said the U.S. military was weaker than Iran had perceived, while Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi accused Washington of longstanding intelligence failures and miscalculations.
Open source reportPres. Trump is unlikely to concede on all of those points just to reopen the Strait. He will want to keep some leverage to achieve other objectives in future negotiations - such as securing Iran's agreement to give up its highly enriched uranium. He may, though, make temporary or partial concessions like those offered in the June MOU.
Trump is unlikely to concede every Iranian demand solely to reopen the strait because Washington may seek leverage over highly enriched uranium, although temporary or partial concessions resembling those in a June memorandum of understanding remain possible.
Open source reportIran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said Iran is "very close" to a deal with Oman to partially reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but other Iranian officials then complicated the matter by tying a full reopening to a list of demands the U.S. must meet first.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran was “very close” to an agreement with Oman to partially reopen the Strait of Hormuz, although other Iranian officials linked a full reopening to U.S. concessions.
Open source reportIran's National Security Commission is considering a bill - first proposed in March and since adapted - that would bar vessels linked to the U.S. or Israel from transiting the Strait of Hormuz until the U.S. and Israel pay Iran compensation for wartime damage.
A bill first proposed in March and subsequently adapted would bar vessels linked to the United States or Israel from transiting the Strait of Hormuz until Iran receives compensation for wartime damage. Violations would carry a fine equal to 20% of cargo value, while other vessels would pay navigation-service fees in Iranian rials.
Open source reportIran's leadership has agreed to the current proposal, which gives Iran more control over Hormuz than it had before the war.
Iran’s leadership agreed to the current draft, although joint-management terms following mine clearance remain undecided.
Open source reportThe U.S. is likely using the leverage of its own blockade of the Strait to demand that Iran drop its plans to charge tolls or fees for passage.
Washington is assessed as likely using its blockade of the strait to press Iran to abandon tolls or fees. The draft would give Iran greater control over Hormuz than it held before the war.
Open source reportPres. Trump antagonized Iran by vowing to use frozen Iranian funds - which Tehran has desperately sought to unfreeze to pay for post-war reconstruction - to pay for damage Iran's strikes in the Strait of Hormuz cause to ships and cargo.
Trump vowed to use frozen Iranian assets to compensate for damage to ships and cargo caused by Iranian strikes in the Strait of Hormuz. A warning against such confiscation comes from Iran’s foreign minister.
Open source reportIran's Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) said that two oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz via the southern route Iran has called "unsafe" and warned ships not to use were - passive voice intentional - "exploded and were forced to cease movement."
The account attributes to the IRGC a statement that two tankers using a southern transit route exploded and stopped moving. The IRGC did not claim responsibility; the account’s suggestion that Iran was responsible is unsupported interpretation.
Open source reportTrump walked back his announced plan to levy fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, saying that Gulf countries...have instead committed to investing in the U.S.
Trump abandoned a plan to charge vessels transiting Hormuz, stating that Gulf countries instead committed to investment in the United States.
Open source reportIran's strikes on two commercial vessels that were circumventing Tehran's rules for transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran struck two commercial vessels that were circumventing Tehran’s rules for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. No further information about the vessels, damage or casualties.
Open source reportThe Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. negotiators dangled an offer to unfreeze some of the $100 billion in Iranian funds overseas banks in exchange for Iran's agreement to abandon its plans to charge tolls for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The offer wasn't rich enough for Tehran, whose negotiators rejected it.
U.S. negotiators offered to unfreeze part of approximately $100 billion in Iranian funds in return for Iran abandoning plans to charge ships for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian negotiators rejected the proposal.
Open source reportPres. Trump declared the Strait of Hormuz "totally open" and asserted that "we took in more oil yesterday than has ever gone through the strait." Meanwhile, Iran says the Strait is closed and will remain closed until certain conditions are met
President Trump declared the Strait of Hormuz fully open while Iran said it remained closed. An NBC tracker as showing 15 tanker transits the previous day, compared with a claimed prewar average of about 100.
Open source reportTrump said the deal calls for Iran to "immediately open" the Strait of Hormuz to unrestricted traffic, while Iranian state media insisted that "no such clause in the text of the agreement."
Trump said the draft requires Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz immediately and withholds financial transfers, while Iranian state media denied the maritime clause and claimed the agreement provides for immediate payment of $12 billion in frozen assets.
Open source reportThe U.S. and Iran have reached a deal to extend the current temporary ceasefire for 60 days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz while they negotiate the thornier nuclear issues they still disagree on.
U.S. and Iranian negotiators reached a framework to extend a temporary ceasefire for 60 days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz while nuclear negotiations continue. President Trump has not approved the draft and that Vice President Vance cited unresolved language.
Open source reportThe U.S. has been lobbying China to use its influence with Iran to convince Iran to allow ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and China apparently did so successfully, winning Tehran's approval for safe passage...at least for Chinese ships.
U.S. officials encouraged China to press Iran for maritime access and that Tehran subsequently approved safe passage for some Chinese vessels while most other foreign ships remained constrained.
Open source reportThe agencies assess that Iran has regained operational access to 30 of its 33 missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz... The agencies also estimated that Iran has restored access to around 90% of its underground launch and storage facilities, and retains about 70% of its prewar mobile launchers and its prewar missile stockpile.
U.S. intelligence agencies assess that Iran has operational access to 30 of 33 missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz, around 90% of its underground launch and storage facilities, and about 70% of its prewar mobile launchers and missile stockpile. It contrasts this with President Trump’s claim that Iran has been militarily “crushed.”
Open source reportIranian state media reported that the counterproposal Trump rejected called for the U.S. to pay war reparations, end sanctions on Iran, and recognize Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. It also postponed nuclear negotiations for "when the time is right."
Tehran’s rejected counterproposal demanded U.S. war reparations, an end to sanctions and recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. It deferred nuclear negotiations until an unspecified later time.
Open source reportMore likely, Project Freedom was making less progress than Trump had hoped, and Pakistani mediators convinced him it was counterproductive.
That the escort effort underperformed, provoked Iranian small-boat retaliation, and was viewed is counterproductive by Pakistani mediators. Approximately 1,600 vessels remained trapped west of the strait.
Open source reportPres. Trump announced he was pausing "Project Freedom" - his plan to escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz - after just one day and three escorted transits, citing "great progress" that the U.S. and Iran are making towards a deal.
President Trump paused “Project Freedom,” described as a plan to escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, after one day and three escorted transits. The public decision comes from claimed progress toward a U.S.-Iran agreement.
Open source reportThe U.S. Treasury also threatened vessels that pay tolls to Iran for safe passage through the Strait with sanctions violations.
The Treasury warned vessels that paying Iran for safe passage through the Strait could constitute sanctions violations.
Open source reportThe Economist noted that the plan is "essentially a challenge to Iran: a bet that it would not want to take the risk of firing the first shots — or laying mines — in a challenge to the United States."
According to The Economist, the judgment that the maritime initiative challenges Iran by betting it will avoid firing first or laying mines against the United States.
Open source reportTrump announced a new initiative - dubbed Project Freedom - in which U.S. ships will guide vessels that are cut off by Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz through the Strait to open seas, starting today.
“Project Freedom” will use U.S. ships to guide vessels affected by an Iranian blockade through the Strait of Hormuz to open seas.
Open source reportIran proposed a new plan to the U.S. via regional mediators. This one dodges the intractable nuclear questions that dogged prior proposals by postponing nuclear negotiations, and focuses instead on ending both blockades of the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran used regional mediators to propose ending blockades of the Strait of Hormuz while postponing nuclear negotiations. President Trump was dissatisfied because the proposal did not address future enrichment or Iran’s enriched-uranium stockpile.
Open source reportThey're more focused on economic interests than theocratic ones, which makes them more open to the kind of deal Trump can agree to. But their grasp of geo-economic power is also what emboldens them to wield it - for example, by choking off the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran’s emerging military leaders are more economically motivated and potentially more open to a deal with President Trump, while arguing that their understanding of geoeconomic leverage encourages coercive use of the Strait of Hormuz.
Open source reportIran still controls traffic through the Strait and is even strengthening its tolling system with a new plan to charge transiting ships $1 per barrel of oil aboard, payable in Bitcoin
Iran still controls traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and plans to charge transiting ships $1 per barrel of oil carried, payable in Bitcoin. Gulf countries reported Iranian missile and drone incursions after the ceasefire announcement.
Open source reportInvestors believe the temporary truce will hold and markets rallied on the news of a deal. Shipping companies seem cautiously optimistic but want more confirmation that their ships won't be attacked before sending them through the Strait.
Markets rallied on expectations that the ceasefire would hold, while shipping companies awaited stronger assurances before resuming Strait transits.
Open source reportJust 90 minutes before Pres. Trump's deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or see its "whole civilization" destroyed, Trump announced that Iran had agreed to a two-week ceasefire. Iranian officials and Pakistani mediators soon confirmed the truce.
President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire shortly before a deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz; Iranian officials and Pakistani mediators subsequently confirmed it.
Open source reportIran has set up a tolling system... to charge some ships a rumored $2 million (in yuan) for safe passage.
Iran is charging some ships a rumored $2 million in yuan for safe passage and restricting vessels to a narrow northern route. European leaders are considering escorts, minesweeping, aerial interception, negotiations, and economic measures.
Open source reportBloomberg reported that 13 ships have transited the Strait of Hormuz in the past week: 10 exiting the Persian Gulf and three entering.
10 ships exited and three entered the Persian Gulf during the preceding seven days. That is the highest weekly total since the asserted war began but far below a stated historical average of 138 daily transits.
Open source reportEgypt, Pakistan, and Turkey proposed a 45-day ceasefire plan to both Iran and the U.S. that includes a proposal for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Egypt, Pakistan, and Turkey proposed a 45-day ceasefire that includes reopening Hormuz. Neither the United States nor Iran had responded and whether the proposal was connected to reported private talks remained unclear.
Open source reportTomorrow at 8 pm ET is Pres. Trump's extended deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on its power plants and bridges.
President Trump extended a deadline to 8 p.m. ET on April 7 for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on power plants and bridges. Iranian leaders dismissed the ultimatum, while Trump assessed that private talks had a good chance of producing a deal.
Open source reportLloyd's List Intelligence said at least two vessels have paid tolls in yuan after submitting manifests and crew rosters to the IRGC for "geopolitical vetting" and - ironically - sanctions screening.
At least two vessels paid tolls in yuan after providing manifests and crew rosters to the IRGC for vetting and sanctions screening.
Open source reportTrump also extended his deadline for Iran to fully lift its blockade on the Strait of Hormuz to April 6 - "per Iranian Government request." Trump has threatened to strike Iranian power stations if Tehran doesn't comply with his ultimatum.
Trump demanded reconsideration of a rejected 15-point peace proposal, extended the deadline for Iran to lift its Hormuz blockade, and threatened strikes on Iranian power stations if Tehran failed to comply.
Open source report