IRGC influence, Lebanon truce extension and Venezuelan amnesty dominate 24 April update

Off Leash update 24 April

IRAN •The NYT published an excellent report describing how the war has shifted power in Iran from the powerful late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to a group of Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) generals who are now calling the shots. •Pres. Trump has called Iran's new leaders "much more reasonable" than the clerics who imposed the previous Supreme Leader's dictates, and in some ways they are. They're more focused on economic interests than theocratic ones, which makes them more open to the kind of deal Trump can agree to. But their grasp of geo-economic power is also what emboldens them to wield it - for example, by choking off the Strait of Hormuz. •It was reportedly the Guards who decided not to attend a second round of peace talks in Islamabad. Their voices prevailed over those of Iran's President, Masoud Pezeshkian, and Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, who both favored joining talks. Pezeshkian and Araghchi have been seemingly sidelined as the Guards assumed control of the war. •Separately, Pres. Trump has reportedly asked FIFA - which awarded him its inaugural Peace Prize last year - to disqualify Iran from this summer's World Cup and replace it with Italy, which failed to qualify for the tournament. Italy's sports minister said the pity invite would be "inappropriate," adding: "Qualification is on the pitch." Italian fans largely agree.

LEBANON •Israel and Lebanon agreed to extend their 10-day truce by a further three weeks. •Like the initial deal, this agreement was brokered and announced by Pres. Trump, who again cajoled reluctant Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into accepting it. •Also as in the first deal, Lebanon - which is not fighting Israel - signed a truce with Israel on behalf of Hezbollah, and can do little to ensure that Hezbollah respects a truce it didn't agree to. [It bears mention that - except for some skirmishes in the south - Hezbollah has mostly respected the ceasefire so far. It has used the reprieve as an opportunity to bury its dead.]

VENEZUELA •Venezuela's Acting President, Delcy Rodriguez, announced an end to the amnesty law her government enacted in February under pressure from the U.S. •Rodriguez said 8,616 people had been freed from Venezuelan prisons in the three months the measure was in effect, but rights groups say the true figure was closer to 700. •In addition, most of the political prisoners the U.S. wanted released or exonerated were expressly excluded from the amnesty, and 473 of them are still in prison or have been reincarcerated. •Rodriguez's government still wants to add opposition leader Maria Corina Machado - who faces treason charges that have deterred her return to Venezuela - to that count. •Rodriguez obliquely noted that "there are other avenues through which [the excluded cases] can be addressed," but declined to add detail and doesn't seem serious about addressing them. •Rodriguez especially won't want to facilitate Machado's return to Venezuela, where Machado remains popular and a threat to Rodriguez's unelected regime.