Off Leash Intel · loading
23 direct mentions across 23 briefings, with 22 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is favoring negotiations; supporters of a hardline faction physically attacked them while chanting against appeasement.
Unverified development · updated through
President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is favoring negotiations; supporters of a hardline faction physically attacked them while chanting against appeasement.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Masoud Pezeshkian dossier
21 mapped developments across 2 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Iran
Iran was preparing to elect a successor to late President Ebrahim Raisi. Excluding most reformists could split support among five hardline candidates and benefit Masoud Pezeshkian, although the author considers his victory and ability to enact change unlikely.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 9 July 2026 IRAN •The U.S. and Iran traded strikes for a second day. The U.S. has struck at least 170 military targets in Iran in the latest flare-up, while Iran said it targeted U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. •Pres. Trump declared the temporary ceasefire "over," but a return to full-scale conflict is probably the worst of his all-bad options. •He could choose peace, but any ceasefire deal Iran would agree to would be on its terms, leaving Trump with nothing to show for the estimated $113 billion that U.S. taxpayers have spent on the war so far. Trump is more likely to choose an awkward middle option, with a fragile peace punctuated by occasional skirmishes like this week's. •Iran's leaders are conflicted, too. Relative moderates like Pres. Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi favor negotiating peace, but hardliners are blocking their path. This week, supporters of a hardline faction physically attacked Pezeshkian and Araghchi while shouting "death to the appeasers." •Separately, the NYT reported that the masses mourning former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei were not entirely orchestrated by the government. Many Iranians the visiting journalists interviewed "had come voluntarily to express their grief and, above all, their defiance," and blamed the U.S. and Israel - as opposed to their own repressive leaders - for a war that has made their lives harder. [At least that's what the reporters heard from the Iranians they were allowed to interview through government-provided translators.] UKRAINE •After meeting Pres. Zelensky on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Turkey, Pres. Trump announced that he'd agreed to let Ukraine make its own Patriot missiles. That would make Ukraine the third country - after Germany and Japan - licensed to make Patriots outside the U.S. [Germany is actively producing them; Japan has yet to exercise its license.] •Bloomberg pointed out that it will still take years - and lots of help from one of the two U.S. contractors that make Patriots, RTX and Lockheed Martin - for Ukraine to get a production line up and running. •Lockheed Martin estimates that it will take four years to triple its Patriot production capacity in the U.S., and construction time is likely to stretch far longer under Russian fire in Ukraine. That's why some experts suggested building Ukraine's Patriot factory under NATO's security shield in Poland instead. TRADE •Speaking at the NATO summit in Turkey, Pres. Trump threatened to cut off trade with Spain and its 50 million "hopeless, bad people." •Trump was overall very pleased with the NATO summit and the "tremendous love" he felt there, but he's mad at Spain's leaders for repeatedly refusing his demands to raise military spending and - more recently - refusing to let the U.S. use Spain's bases to support Trump's war in Iran. •It will be hard for the U.S. to make good on Trump's threat. First, the European Union negotiates trade matters as a bloc, and the entire bloc could retaliate against trade actions targeting one of its members. In addition, the U.S. sells more to Spain than it buys from it, so severing trade ties would harm U.S. exporters more than Spanish ones.
Open source reportOff Leash update 11 June 2026 IRAN •The U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes again overnight, and Pres. Trump threatened to continue to hit Iran "hard" today because its leaders were taking "too long to negotiate." Iran's Pres. Pezeshkian retorted that Iran "will stand firm against any pressure or threat." •The U.S. also fired on the Settebello, an Indian-crewed oil tanker that had allegedly "violated the ongoing blockade by attempting to transport oil from Iran." Three Indian sailors are missing and 21 others were rescued following the strike. •Iran says the Strait of Hormuz is "completely closed" and claims it is actively targeting ships that try to defy its blockade. •U.S. officials don't consider the Strait closed: Pres. Trump says U.S. vessels have helped tankers carrying a cumulative total of 100 million barrels of oil through the Strait. •Experts suggest around two million barrels of oil are leaking through the Strait per day, which is around one-seventh the pre-war volume that passed through daily but still a decent rate. That's perhaps why oil prices have remained lower than analysts thought they'd be after a prolonged blockade. NORTHERN IRELAND •A stabbing attack blamed on a Sudanese-born man ignited anti-immigrant riots and racist retaliation in Belfast. •Police are using baton rounds and water cannons in an effort to restrain an angry minority" that used the stabbing as an excuse to engage in opportunistic racist violence and arson. SOUTH AFRICA •Anti-immigrant campaigners called for all undocumented immigrants in South Africa to leave the country by June 30, and - unsettled by the memory of the attacks that followed similar prior eviction notices - thousands are heeding the call to return home. •Nigerians are the largest contingent of undocumented immigrants in South Africa, comprising around a quarter of the estimated 2.2 million total. Around 1,000 have voluntarily returned to Nigeria. RUSSIA •A senior Russian military officer (whose name has yet to be released) was killed by a car bomb outside Moscow on Tuesday. Ukrainian agents or sympathizers were likely responsible, but Ukraine declined to comment on the incident. DRC •DRC's National Assembly quietly passed a bill that paves the way for a referendum to alter the constitution so Pres. Tshisekedi can run for a third term. Lacking the numbers to block the measure from passing, the opposition boycotted the vote in protest.
Open source reportOff Leash update 24 April IRAN •The NYT published an excellent report describing how the war has shifted power in Iran from the powerful late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to a group of Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) generals who are now calling the shots. •Pres. Trump has called Iran's new leaders "much more reasonable" than the clerics who imposed the previous Supreme Leader's dictates, and in some ways they are. They're more focused on economic interests than theocratic ones, which makes them more open to the kind of deal Trump can agree to. But their grasp of geo-economic power is also what emboldens them to wield it - for example, by choking off the Strait of Hormuz. •It was reportedly the Guards who decided not to attend a second round of peace talks in Islamabad. Their voices prevailed over those of Iran's President, Masoud Pezeshkian, and Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, who both favored joining talks. Pezeshkian and Araghchi have been seemingly sidelined as the Guards assumed control of the war. •Separately, Pres. Trump has reportedly asked FIFA - which awarded him its inaugural Peace Prize last year - to disqualify Iran from this summer's World Cup and replace it with Italy, which failed to qualify for the tournament. Italy's sports minister said the pity invite would be "inappropriate," adding: "Qualification is on the pitch." Italian fans largely agree. LEBANON •Israel and Lebanon agreed to extend their 10-day truce by a further three weeks. •Like the initial deal, this agreement was brokered and announced by Pres. Trump, who again cajoled reluctant Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into accepting it. •Also as in the first deal, Lebanon - which is not fighting Israel - signed a truce with Israel on behalf of Hezbollah, and can do little to ensure that Hezbollah respects a truce it didn't agree to. [It bears mention that - except for some skirmishes in the south - Hezbollah has mostly respected the ceasefire so far. It has used the reprieve as an opportunity to bury its dead.] VENEZUELA •Venezuela's Acting President, Delcy Rodriguez, announced an end to the amnesty law her government enacted in February under pressure from the U.S. •Rodriguez said 8,616 people had been freed from Venezuelan prisons in the three months the measure was in effect, but rights groups say the true figure was closer to 700. •In addition, most of the political prisoners the U.S. wanted released or exonerated were expressly excluded from the amnesty, and 473 of them are still in prison or have been reincarcerated. •Rodriguez's government still wants to add opposition leader Maria Corina Machado - who faces treason charges that have deterred her return to Venezuela - to that count. •Rodriguez obliquely noted that "there are other avenues through which [the excluded cases] can be addressed," but declined to add detail and doesn't seem serious about addressing them. •Rodriguez especially won't want to facilitate Machado's return to Venezuela, where Machado remains popular and a threat to Rodriguez's unelected regime.
Open source reportOff Leash update 2 April IRAN •Pres. Trump used his primetime address on Iran last night to declare that the war was "nearing completion" and - having achieved its objectives - would wrap up in the next two or three weeks, with or without a deal. •Critics complained that he moved the goalposts to be able to claim victory in achieving objectives like regime change ("they’re all dead, so I would consider that regime change") and eliminating Iran's nuclear threat (he now says the 400 kg of enriched uranium that Iran could use to race towards a bomb is "so far underground, I don't care about that"). •He also offered no clear plan for ending the month-long conflict, and alternated between threats to "bring them back to the stone ages, where they belong" and claims that "discussions were ongoing" - and going well, since "we have all the cards; they have none." •Iran denies that any such discussions are taking place, and its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) seems to still have some cards left. Yesterday, it said it would start targeting the Middle East offices of major U.S. companies like Apple, Boeing, Google, JPMorgan Chase, Microsoft, and Nvidia. •While denying that talks are already underway, Iran's Pres. Pezeshkian told European Council President Antonio Costa that Iran is open to a truce as long as it includes guarantees of a permanent end to hostilities. Iranian hardliners hate the idea of negotiating any kind of truce. •Separately, Long War Journal assessed that Iran and its proxies fired fewer projectiles in the period from March 28 to April 1 than they had in earlier parts of the war, but that their recent strikes have been more accurate and effective at penetrating air defenses. IRAQ •It emerged that Kataib Hezbollah, an Iran-linked Iraqi militia, was behind the kidnapping of American journalist Shelly Kittleson in Baghdad on Tuesday. •Though Kataib Hezbollah has links to Iran, its practice of kidnapping Westerners predates the war. It kidnapped a Russian-Israeli researcher in early 2023 and held her for nearly three years before freeing her under pressure from the Trump administration. •It now wants to trade Kittleson for several of its members imprisoned in Iraq. RUSSIA AND UKRAINE •Ukraine is doing its best to hinder Russia's ability to reap windfall profits from high oil prices and temporary partial sanctions relief by targeting Russian oil export infrastructure. Ukrainian drones carried out an unprecedented scale of strikes on export facilities that took up to 40% of Russia's total crude export capacity offline. Some capacity has now been restored. •Separately, Russia claimed that its forces had taken full control of eastern Ukraine's Luhansk region. Russia has long controlled 99% of Luhansk, and has now thrice claimed to have captured the last remaining pockets of it. •Like its two previous claims, this one seems premature: the Institute for the Study of War assessed that the settlements of Nadiya and Novoyehorivka remain outside Russian control. VENEZUELA •The U.S. lifted sanctions on Venezuela's new president, Delcy Rodriguez. Rodriguez had been blacklisted since 2018 for her role as vice president in her predecessor's repressive regime. •Since the U.S. ousted her predecessor, Nicolas Maduro, and installed her in his place, she's been pliant and willing to work with the U.S. on priority goals like opening Venezuelan oil and mining assets to U.S. investment. NATO •Pres. Trump threatened to withdraw the U.S. from NATO, which he called a "paper tiger," over allies' reluctance to join his war with Iran. It's not the first time Trump has threatened to pull out of the alliance, but this time he seems more likely to follow through. Having heard the same threat before, NATO members are also probably better prepared for an alliance without the U.S.
Open source reportOff Leash update 1 April IRAN •Pres. Trump plans to address the nation on Iran this evening, and has hinted to reporters that he'll claim his objectives have been achieved and announce a winding down of the war in the next two to three weeks. •Iran's leaders may be skeptical of agreeing to a truce - especially one pitched on April Fool's Day. •For one thing, Trump's stated goal in both brief wars on Iran in the past year - ensuring that Iran will never have a nuclear bomb - still hasn't been conclusively achieved. Iran's 400 kg of enriched uranium is still at large, and its regime hasn't committed to abandoning its nuclear ambitions. If anything, this war may have hardened them. •Nonetheless, Iran's Pres. Pezeshkian seemed cautiously open to a truce, as long as it came with security guarantees. That part will need to be fleshed out in talks. •Israel seems ready to end the war, too. The Israel Defense Forces estimated yesterday that all of its "critical" targets - i.e., those directly linked to Iran's missile programs that present an immediate threat - and "essential" targets - essential military-industrial sites that present a slightly less imminent threat - will be destroyed by today. •Americans will be glad to see the war end and fuel prices retreat. Two-thirds of respondents to a Reuters / Ipsos poll said they supported ending the war quickly, even if Trump's shifting goals for it are unmet. CHINA •As Trump vacillates on how the war might end, China is trying to step in as a peacemaker with a clearer, five-point peace plan that it pitched yesterday with Pakistan. •The Chinese-Pakistani plan calls for an immediate end to hostilities and strikes on infrastructure, a resumption of "normal passage" through the Strait of Hormuz, and "peace talks as soon as possible." •Analysts pointed out that this plan has striking parallels with the 12-point plan China proposed for ending the war in Ukraine in 2023. •That push fizzled out after Xi Jinping declined to stake his political capital meddling in a foreign crisis. It's unclear whether he has any more appetite for intervention now. CUBA •The Anatoly Kolodkin, a U.S.-sanctioned Russian tanker, delivered fuel to Cuba yesterday after securing Pres. Trump's approval to sail through his energy blockade of the island. •This shipment will last Cuba 3-4 weeks, and it may be the first of several: the White House said it would evaluate whether to allow other fuel deliveries to Cuba on a "case-by-case basis." •That's a stark reversal from Trump's proclamation on Truth Social in January that "THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA — ZERO!" Trump said he relented out of humanitarian concern for fuel-starved Cubans, but analysts suggested he lost interest in picking a fight with Cuba while his attention is focused on Iran. IRAQ •American journalist Shelley Kittleson was kidnapped in Baghdad yesterday, and analysts are worried that Iran-linked militias targeted her over the U.S. war in Iran. Details are still hazy. DRC •U.S. firm Virtus Metals finalized its $30 million acquisition of cobalt producer Chemaf - which owns DRC's massive Mutoshi copper-cobalt project - on Friday, thanks in part to U.S. government lobbying driven by a desire to secure non-Chinese sources of critical minerals. •That will make Virtus the largest non-Chinese cobalt miner in DRC, but it faces major financial and operating challenges - including a $1 billion debt burden. Virtus committed to raising $720 million to invest in its new asset, including $250-300 million of capex to finish long-stalled upgrades. •DRC is still actively courting Chinese investment, too. Last week, it signed a new mineral cooperation pact with Beijing that secured China's commitment to share geological data and promote more local processing of raw materials in DRC. •A Congo-focused analyst observed: "The DRC is clearly attempting to hedge its bets."
Open source reportOff Leash update 30 Dec VENEZUELA •Pres. Trump acknowledged that a CIA drone strike about a week ago destroyed a Venezuelan dock allegedly used by Tren de Aragua drug traffickers to export their wares, marking what seems to be the first known land strike on Venezuela. •Trump declined to share more details, and Nicolas Maduro's government has only referred to the incident obliquely - perhaps to downplay concerns about escalation and calls for retaliation. •Separately, another Operation Southern Spear boat strike in the eastern Pacific killed two yesterday. UKRAINE •Pres. Zelensky reported that Pres. Trump offered Ukraine 15 years of security guarantees during their meeting on Sunday. That's far short of the indefinite guarantees Zelensky had sought, but Zelensky seemed content to compromise in the interest of resolving the remaining bigger differences of position. •Rumors suggest Trump may next host a new round of negotiations next month with Zelensky as well as European leaders (some of whom joined by phone this time). ISRAEL •Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu visited Pres. Trump at Mar-a-Lago yesterday for talks that were amiable but produced no big breakthroughs on Trump's Gaza peace plan. •Netanyahu secured one key win, though: he got Trump's assurance that the U.S. would back Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites if Iran continues to develop its weapons programs. IRAN •Protesters demonstrated in Tehran yesterday against rising inflation after preliminary December data showed an annualized inflation rate of 42.2%. •Pres. Pezeshkian has repeatedly conceded that he's out of ideas to fix Iran's ailing economy, and the resignation of his central bank chief yesterday certainly won't help. •An academic paraphrased in the NYT sees two ways Iran can escape the looming inflationary spiral: "It could change its relationship with the United States in exchange for relief on sanctions...or drastically cut government spending, but neither option appears likely." Instead, further inflation seems more probable. CHINA •China is seeking to supplant the U.S. as the lead peacemaker between Thailand and Cambodia. After Pres. Trump claimed a role in closing the initial 72-hour truce, China stepped in to host the next round of talks on a more permanent ceasefire yesterday and today. •Beijing's foreign ministry implicitly boasted that its mediation style was less pushy than the U.S. approach: "China’s efforts to promote peace and dialogue never impose on others or overstep its bounds."
Open source reportOff Leash Update 10 Nov 2025 Happy 250th Anniversary to the United States Marine Corps! COMING UP THIS WEEK •COP30 - the UN's climate conference - starts today and runs through Nov. 21. This year's edition will include fewer world leaders than attended past summits. The lackluster turnout is leading some to question the purpose of the summit. •The U.S. celebrates Veterans Day tomorrow, and the American Legion published a list of nationwide deals and discounts veterans can enjoy here: https://t.co/ri80Zt9MMx. •Tomorrow is also Iraq's election. Voter registration figures suggest Iraqis are disillusioned with their politicians, and many Shia will probably join popular cleric Moqtada al Sadr in boycotting the vote. Those who vote are expected to do so along sectarian lines, leaving Iraq's political elite to allocate power amongst themselves. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,848/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $106,245 •Cobalt: $48,570/ton •Copper: $10,717/ton •Ethereum: $3,604 •Gold: $4,078/toz •Lead: $2,047/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.49/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $60.22/barrel •Zinc: $3,057/ton VENEZUELA •Numerous reports suggest that Venezuela's strongman, Nicolas Maduro, has been leveraging Cuban intelligence to intensify a crackdown on suspected traitors within his government by jailing and - allegedly - torturing military officers suspected of disloyalty. •Whether or not any of the targeted officers were actually plotting against Maduro, his crackdown on suspected traitors is bound to make other officers hesitate to challenge his authority. •Separately, Venezuela's army released a series of new patriotic promotional videos over the weekend as part of what some analysts suspect is an effort to motivate soldiers and attract new recruits. •In one clip filmed at the national military academy, army commander Gen. Johan Hernández Láre boasts that the academy's cadets "are ready to destroy the enemy" after their training on the first-person view (FPV) drone simulators in the background. Gamers around the world may be worried: astute observers pointed out that the simulators behind Láre bear an uncanny resemblence to FPV Kamikaze Drone, a video game sold on Steam for $3.99. GAZA •Turkey accused Israel of bombing a Turkish hospital in Gaza and issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on charges of "genocide and crimes against humanity." Israel called it a "PR stunt." •While trading diplomatic barbs with Israel, Turkey is apparently constructively helping the U.S. and UAE try to negotiate safe passage for Hamas fighters trapped in tunnels in Israeli-controlled parts of Gaza. •Separately, Hamas returned the remains of Lt. Hadar Goldin, an Israeli soldier who was killed in Gaza in 2014. Goldin was one of the deceased hostages whose release was mandated by the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. DRONES •The UK said it would lend Belgium military support to protect against a wave of drone incursions into Belgian airspace. IRAN •Tehran's water supplies have continued to dwindle through a rain-less autumn, and authorities have started rationing water. •Late last week, Pres. Masoud Pezeshkian - who has been sounding the alarm about Tehran's looming water crisis for months - warned that Tehran residents may need to evacuate if the drought lasts another month. The Ministry of Energy is trying to draw rain using "cloud seeding" first. INDIA •A car bomb killed at least 10 people near one of Delhi's top tourist attractions - the Red Fort - today, leading authorities to impose a high security alert on other tourist and government sites in the capital. •Investigators are treading cautiously and not explicitly calling it a terrorist attack yet - but the fact that India's federal anti-terror investigators are leading the inquiry suggests terrorism is a leading theory.
Open source reportOff Leash update 16 Sept VENEZUELA •The U.S. Navy targeted another drug boat near Venezuela, killing three people who Pres. Trump said were "positively identified, extraordinarily violent drug trafficking cartels and narcoterrorists" heading to the U.S. with "big bags of cocaine and fentanyl." •Some legal experts have criticized these extra judicial strikes on alleged drug boats as excessive, pointing out that even convicted drug traffickers don't face the death penalty. These accused traffickers are being executed without a trial. [Trump argues that drug cartels should be treated as foreign terrorist organizations and have forfeited their right to stand trial.] •Before the new U.S. strike was announced yesterday, Venezuela's dictator, Nicolas Maduro, called the first U.S. strike of this campaign - which occurred Sep. 2 - a "heinous crime" and "a military attack on civilians who were not at war and were not militarily threatening any country." •Maduro insists that the U.S. is trying to goad Venezuela into a "major war" with the goal of "regime change for oil." Few in the Trump administration would be sad to see Maduro's regime fall, but this naval operation seems like a roundabout way to launch a "major war." ISRAEL AND GAZA •Israel began the "main phase" of its ground offensive on Gaza City this morning, rolling tanks into Gaza's largest population center - which Israel believes to be Hamas's last major stronghold. •U.S. SecState Rubio just paid a visit to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, and offered Netanyahu full U.S. support for his offensive against Hamas. Rubio also conceded that a Gaza peace deal may be out of reach at this stage. •Both Rubio and Netanyahu dodged questions about whether Israel told Pres. Trump it planned to target Hamas leaders in Qatar in advance of the strike. Israeli officials maintain that Trump did indeed have advance warning; the White House claims he only found out after missiles were in the air. Either way, it seems clear Trump didn't have enough advance warning to object to the strike or warn Qatar about it. •On the other side, Arab states met yesterday in Doha to rally behind Qatar in unanimous objection to Israel's strike. •Iran's Pres. Pezeshkian was one of the most vocal attendees denouncing the strike; he complained that "Israel strikes wherever it wants and does whatever it wants," and proposed an "Islamic NATO" to deter future Israeli fire. That's ironic, given that Iran carried out its own ballistic missile strikes on Qatar just three months ago. SYRIA •I missed a key event in my weekly outlook: Syria's new government began a one-week process to choose its new legislature yesterday. •Interim President Ahmed al Sharaa will appoint 70 of its 210 members, while local committees will pick the rest. •As The Economist noted: "Popular democracy this is not, but it is certainly more unpredictable than elections for the old parliament, in which only Bashar al-Assad’s toadies were allowed to run." CHINA •U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent announced an eleventh-hour agreement to allow TikTok to continue operating in the U.S. under U.S.-controlled owners ahead of tomorrow's extended deadline. Presidents Trump and Xi will "complete" the deal Friday. •Separately, China's markets regulator ruled that chipmaking giant Nvidia's 2020 acquisition of Mellanox Technologies violated antitrust laws. That's going to make ongoing U.S.-China trade talks in Madrid awkward. Some observers suggested the ruling may be China's revenge for Pres. Trump's pressure on U.S. allies to raise tariffs on China over China's purchases of Russian oil.
Open source reportOff Leash update 18 July SYRIA •Since taking power earlier this year, Syria's Pres. al Sharaa - a former jihadist - has carefully cultivated a new image as an inclusive statesman who has let go of past grievances, including against Israel. •However, Israel's airstrikes on Damascus this week have clearly tested al Sharaa's patience. In his sharpest public criticism yet, al Sharaa accused Israel of inciting "chaos" with its "wide-scale targeting of civilian and government facilities" in Damascus. •Prime Minister Netanyahu seemed to confirm reports that Israel used its airstrikes to bully al Sharaa's government into the latest ceasefire (which is still mostly holding up) when he said the truce was "achieved through strength." •Netanyahu seems resolute in his commitment to using Israel's military might to protect Syria's Druze: he vowed to block Syrian troops from deploying anywhere south of Damascus. UKRAINE •When Presidents Trump and Zelensky spoke by phone on July 4, Trump asked Zelensky about Ukraine's capacity to strike targets in Moscow and St. Petersburg. •The White House said Trump was "was merely asking a question, not encouraging further killing," but it seems Zelensky took the question as tacit approval to fire at Russia's largest and second-largest cities: Ukraine launched over 100* drones at the two cities yesterday. [*100 came from Russian reports - which usually seek to downplay Ukrainian battle strength - so the true number of Ukrainian drones was likely far higher.] •Separately, Ukraine announced two moves to reinvigorate its war effort with arms boosts. First, its Brave1 defense tech incubator launched a program offering Ukraine's front lines as a test bed for new weapons prototypes that allied countries want to test in action. Ukrainian troops will test the new models and report back on how they perform. •Second, Pres. Zelensky set a goal for Ukraine to produce 50% of its weapons domestically within the next six months, compared to the 40% it currently self-supplies. UK •The UK's incumbent Labour Party introduced a plan to lower the voting age to 16. Labour says the shift would bring new, youthful energy to British democracy. Naturally, it would also boost Labour's support: as in the U.S., younger voters in the UK tend to lean left. IRAN •A new U.S. intelligence assessment cautiously determined that last month's U.S. strikes on Iran badly damaged - and perhaps destroyed - the underground nuclear enrichment site at Fordo, and likely surgically destroyed the facilities (like centrifuges) at Isfahan and Natanz that would be used to enrich any surviving 60% uranium to weapons grade - though Isfahan and Natanz suffered less overall damage than Fordo. •That assessment corroborates claims that the strikes have set Iran's nuclear weapons program back years or even decades: even if Iran was able to shield some or all of its 60% uranium from the blasts, it likely does not have any surviving centrifuges to further enrich it to weapons grade. •Separately, additional intelligence reports suggest that Iran's Pres. Pezeshkian sustained minor leg injuries while fleeing an Israeli strike sometime around day four of their 12-day war. Pezeshkian, who is still open to nuclear talks with the U.S., was careful to clarify that: "It was not the United States that was behind the attempt on my life. It was Israel." DRC •DRC is reportedly close to finalizing a four-year football (soccer) sponsorship deal to pay FC Barcelona €10.0 to 11.5 million ($11.6 to 13.4 million) per year to place the slogan "The Heart of Africa" on its men's and women's training and warm-up jerseys, in a bid to attract tourists to DRC. •That follows similar deals DRC announced last month with AS Monaco and AC Milan. •DRC is probably hoping to emulate its regional rival Rwanda, which saw a 17% boost in tourist arrivals within a year of signing a jersey sponsorship deal with the UK's Arsenal football club.
Open source reportOff Leash update 25 June IRAN •Early yesterday, Iran and Israel agreed to a U.S.-proposed ceasefire that seems to be holding - despite some final fire from both sides in the first hours of the truce. •Both sides claimed victory, and - in the sense of avoiding expanded or prolonged conflict - they were indeed both winners. •Their truce was also a win for nuclear diplomacy: shortly after it took effect, Iran's Pres. Pezeshkian told his Emirati counterpart that Iran is ready to return to nuclear negotiations with the U.S. [However, Pezeshkian reiterated Iran's insistence on continuing some nuclear enrichment programs, which means the biggest impasse that stalled prior rounds of talks remains firmly in place.] •Prior to - and independent of - the Iran-Israel ceasefire, Iran symbolically retaliated against U.S. strikes on its nuclear sites by firing a few missiles at the largest U.S. military base in the Middle East, Qatar's Al Udeid Air Base. •Iran's retaliatory strikes were carefully calculated to avoid casualties or serious damage to Al Udeid, and Iran gave Qatar advance warning and apologized afterwards - all signs that Tehran seeks de-escalation. UKRAINE •Russia fired ballistic missiles at Dnipro yesterday, killing 17 and causing what Dnipro's mayor called "an unprecedented amount of destruction that the city has not seen in the entire time of [Russia’s] full-scale war." •In the wake of the Dnipro strikes, Pres. Zelensky repeated his concern that Russian ballistic missiles rely on parts imported from other countries - "unfortunately, sometimes even from Europe or NATO countries" - and called on weapons-makers to stop selling to Russia. DEFENSE SPENDING •NATO leaders agreed to raise defense spending to 5% of each country's GDP - including 3.5% of GDP on "hard" defense like weapons and an additional 1.5% on defense infrastructure - by 2025. That will please Pres. Trump, who has long been critical of NATO and has often called on its members to contribute their fair share towards the alliance's collective security.
Open source reportOff Leash update 20 March UKRAINE •Presidents Zelensky and Trump spoke by phone yesterday, and it was much more cordial than their last conversation in the Oval Office. Zelensky agreed to Pres. Putin's watered-down ceasefire proposal pausing attacks on energy and infrastructure targets for 30 days. •Zelensky asked the U.S. to monitor key energy sites protected by the current agreement: "Just the assertion and the word of Putin that he will not strike energy sites is too little." •The White House said its negotiators will continue to meet Ukrainian teams in Saudi Arabia to seek a Black Sea truce "in the coming days," and hoped to eventually reach a full ceasefire plan that both Ukraine and Russia can agree to. GAZA •Israel launched "targeted ground activities" in Gaza yesterday, seizing a sliver of the Netzarim Corridor to create a "partial buffer zone" between the north and south of the strip. Israel's goal seems to be to resume vehicle checks and add pressure on Hamas. •Thousands of Israelis protested in Jerusalem for a new ceasefire. CHINA •Pres. Trump teased a possible visit by China's Pres. Xi Jinping to Washington "in the not too distant future." •Trump said he'd ordered the capital to be cleaned up ahead of Xi's yet-unplanned arrival - as he did ahead of previous visits by other foreign dignitaries like India's Prime Minister Modi, France's Pres. Macron, and the UK's Prime Minister Starmer: "I didn't want to have them see tents. I didn't want to have them see graffiti. I didn't want to have them see broken barriers and potholes in the roads." •Canada may not be inviting Xi to visit anytime soon: China-Canada relations have taken two turns for the worse. Yesterday, China executed four Canadian citizens on drug trafficking charges - despite Ottawa's pleas for leniency. Then - at midnight this morning - China imposed (previously announced) tariffs on $3.7 billion in Canadian agricultural and food exports to China in retaliation for Canadian tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. IRAN •Axios and The Jerusalem Post independently reported that Pres. Trump's recent letter to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei gave Iran a two-month(ish) deadline to reach a new nuclear deal, and threatened significant new sanctions if the deadline isn't met. •Neither publication cited an exact date for the deadline, and Trump's letter may have left it vague to give Khamenei time to soften his position and come around to the idea of talking to the U.S. •Khamenei hasn't officially responded yet, but other Iranian officials - including Pres. Pezeshkian - have gently hinted that they're open to talks without explicitly disagreeing with Khamenei's hardline position. YEMEN •After Pres. Trump threatened to hold Iran responsible for future Houthi attacks on Red Sea ships, Iran reportedly privately asked its Houthi proxies to dial back their attacks and nudged Oman to convey the same message to Houthi leaders. •The Houthis remain outwardly defiant: Houthi foreign minister Jamal Amer vowed to resist U.S. pressure or Iranian appeals to "dial down" Red Sea attacks. But behind closed doors, the Houthis are probably listening to their benefactors (plus, ongoing U.S. strikes are chipping away at their arsenal). •My guess is that we'll see the Houthis lob some sporadic, easily-interceptible missiles in Israel's direction - like the one they fired towards Ben Gurion Airport overnight that Israel promptly destroyed - but won't see the dramatic escalation they've promised. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 March 2025 COMING UP THIS WEEK •U.S. and Ukrainian officials will meet in Saudi Arabia starting tomorrow. Pres. Zelensky is in Saudi and said he was "fully committed" to negotiating an end to the war, but he won't participate in the U.S.-Ukrainian meetings; instead, he'll meet Saudi's Crown Prince MBS for economic talks while his delegates meet U.S. SecState Rubio et al. •Greenland goes to the polls tomorrow. While the question of independence from Denmark isn't directly on the ballot, analysts will be watching results to see if Greenlanders veer towards candidates in favor of greater autonomy for their island. •China, Iran, and Russia will hold joint naval exercises in the northern Indian Ocean this week. Several countries - including Pakistan, Qatar, South Africa, and the UAE - will send observers. COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,706/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,450/ton •Cobalt: $26,960/ton •Copper: $9,614/ton •Gold: $2,901/toz •Lead: $2,019/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.60/MMbtu - a three-year high due to supply constraints and cold weather •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $67.06/barrel •Zinc: $2,887/ton GAZA •France, Germany, Italy, and the UK said they would support Egypt's plan for post-war Gaza; however, that plan still faces significant hurdles: the U.S. and Israel have rejected it - Israel more vehemently than the U.S. - and so far no donors have stepped up to commit the first of the $53 billion needed to fund the plan. •Optimists are hopeful for a second-phase ceasefire agreement this week. Israel sent a delegation to Qatar today "in an effort to advance the negotiations," and Hamas said it has received "positive signals" from the Egyptian and Qatari mediators it's been working with. SYRIA •An independent monitor estimated that over 1,000 people - mostly civilians - have been killed in the past week's clashes between the new government's forces and loyalists to the deposed Assad regime in Latakia. •The Assad loyalists clashing with government troops don't appear to be centrally organized or led; rather, the Institute for the Study of War suggests there are multiple small groups of loyalists each independently declaring a "united" front against the new government. •Interim president Ahmed al Sharaa appealed for calm and asked Syrians "to be reassured because the country has the fundamentals for survival." IRAN •Pres. Trump said he wrote a letter to Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, proposing a revival of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran. •Khamenei seemed cold on the idea: he complained about "bullying governments" using talks "as a pathway to have new demands." •Pres. Pezeshkian, meanwhile, seemed more open to talks - but noted that Khamenei calls the shots: "My position has been and will remain that I believe in negotiations, but now we have to follow the parameters set by the supreme leader." UKRAINE •A group of civilian and military analysts unveiled a framework for a ceasefire in Ukraine that came out of their spring 2022 meeting in Geneva. Their proposal calls for a six-mile buffer zone along the 700-mile front lines, which would be patrolled by peacekeepers, including foreign troops (the UK and France have offered to send peacekeepers, but Russia rejected the idea). •Meanwhile, Russia is eroding Ukraine's gains in Kursk by pushing Ukrainian front lines back and cutting off supply chains to the ~10,000 Ukrainian troops in Kursk. Ukraine had hoped to use the parts of Kursk it recaptured last year as bargaining chips in a negotiated peace; Russia's recent counter-advance will leave Ukraine with less to offer in a truce. •Separately, Pres. Trump said he was "just about" ready to start sharing intelligence with Ukraine again - now that Ukraine is participating obligingly in peace talks in Saudi. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 March 2025 COMING UP THIS WEEK •U.S. and Ukrainian officials will meet in Saudi Arabia starting tomorrow. Pres. Zelensky is in Saudi and said he was "fully committed" to negotiating an end to the war, but he won't participate in the U.S.-Ukrainian meetings; instead, he'll meet Saudi's Crown Prince MBS for economic talks while his delegates meet U.S. SecState Rubio et al. •Greenland goes to the polls tomorrow. While the question of independence from Denmark isn't directly on the ballot, analysts will be watching results to see if Greenlanders veer towards candidates in favor of greater autonomy for their island. •China, Iran, and Russia will hold joint naval exercises in the northern Indian Ocean this week. Several countries - including Pakistan, Qatar, South Africa, and the UAE - will send observers. COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,706/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,450/ton •Cobalt: $26,960/ton •Copper: $9,614/ton •Gold: $2,901/toz •Lead: $2,019/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.60/MMbtu - a three-year high due to supply constraints and cold weather •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $67.06/barrel •Zinc: $2,887/ton GAZA •France, Germany, Italy, and the UK said they would support Egypt's plan for post-war Gaza; however, that plan still faces significant hurdles: the U.S. and Israel have rejected it - Israel more vehemently than the U.S. - and so far no donors have stepped up to commit the first of the $53 billion needed to fund the plan. •Optimists are hopeful for a second-phase ceasefire agreement this week. Israel sent a delegation to Qatar today "in an effort to advance the negotiations," and Hamas said it has received "positive signals" from the Egyptian and Qatari mediators it's been working with. SYRIA •An independent monitor estimated that over 1,000 people - mostly civilians - have been killed in the past week's clashes between the new government's forces and loyalists to the deposed Assad regime in Latakia. •The Assad loyalists clashing with government troops don't appear to be centrally organized or led; rather, the Institute for the Study of War suggests there are multiple small groups of loyalists each independently declaring a "united" front against the new government. •Interim president Ahmed al Sharaa appealed for calm and asked Syrians "to be reassured because the country has the fundamentals for survival." IRAN •Pres. Trump said he wrote a letter to Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, proposing a revival of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran. •Khamenei seemed cold on the idea: he complained about "bullying governments" using talks "as a pathway to have new demands." •Pres. Pezeshkian, meanwhile, seemed more open to talks - but noted that Khamenei calls the shots: "My position has been and will remain that I believe in negotiations, but now we have to follow the parameters set by the supreme leader." UKRAINE •A group of civilian and military analysts unveiled a framework for a ceasefire in Ukraine that came out of their spring 2022 meeting in Geneva. Their proposal calls for a six-mile buffer zone along the 700-mile front lines, which would be patrolled by peacekeepers, including foreign troops (the UK and France have offered to send peacekeepers, but Russia rejected the idea). •Meanwhile, Russia is eroding Ukraine's gains in Kursk by pushing Ukrainian front lines back and cutting off supply chains to the ~10,000 Ukrainian troops in Kursk. Ukraine had hoped to use the parts of Kursk it recaptured last year as bargaining chips in a negotiated peace; Russia's recent counter-advance will leave Ukraine with less to offer in a truce. •Separately, Pres. Trump said he was "just about" ready to start sharing intelligence with Ukraine again - now that Ukraine is participating obligingly in peace talks in Saudi.
Open source reportOff Leash update 12Nov Venezuela •A gas pipeline exploded at the Muscar Operations Center in Venezuela's Eastern Monagas state yesterday, injuring at least five. •The blast also forced state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) to shut down the 63% of the country's fuel supply that comes from the facility. •Though Pres. Maduro may blame his usual bogeymen - the U.S. and its allies - early indications suggest the explosion happened because of poor maintenance and outdated equipment rather than sabotage. •It's not yet clear how long PDVSA's supply will be constrained. Mozambique •Opposition figure Venancio Mondlane called for new protests in Mozambique's cities, ports, and border posts tomorrow. •Authorities quickly - and apparently violently - quelled the first three rounds of demonstrations Mondlane incited against the election that he claims was stolen from him. •Countrywide internet restrictions make it hard to gauge the scale of the unrest, but a prominent Catholic leader said it's "already chaos." Gaza •Israel expanded one of Gaza's humanitarian zones in a token gesture towards meeting the Biden administration's demand to deliver more aid to Gaza or risk losing U.S. military funding. •Biden's national security advisor, Jake Sullivan, seemed to indicate that Biden's ultimatum on Gaza aid was a hollow one and Israel's progress on expanding aid won't be measured against any specific metrics: he told Face the Nation that the White House would evaluate "what sort of progress" Israel has made by tomorrow's deadline and then "make judgments about what we do in response." Iran •Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince MBS condemned Israel for committing "genocide" in Gaza and warned Israel against possible future direct strikes on Iran. •It was the harshest public criticism any Saudi official has made about the war, and perhaps a sign of Saudi's warming consideration for Iran, which sponsors the militants Israel is fighting in Gaza (and Yemen and Lebanon). •Separately, analysts are whispering that Pres. Trump could seek a new deal with Iran once he enters office. Under Pres. Pezeshkian - who is more moderate than his predecessor - Iran could welcome an accord. China •China's military showed off the new, Blackhawk-like Z-20 helicopter at the Zhuhai air show. •Pentagon analysts studied the model while it was being developed, and noted in a recent public report that it "will provide significant improvements in ASW (anti-submarine warfare) capabilities over the smaller... helicopters the PLAN [People's Liberation Army Navy] currently operates." North Korea •Kim Jong Un formally ratified North Korea's Comprehensive Strategic Partnership treaty with Russia last night, per state media. [Russia already ratified it last week, so with Kim's decree and the exchange of signed documents it will take effect.] •The pact formalizes the mutual defense support that North Korea and Russia are already lending each other, but it doesn't bind them to any specific commitments to come to each other's aid if certain red lines are crossed.
Open source reportOff Leash update 7 Nov Mozambique •Fearing spillover effects from post-election violence in Mozambique, South Africa closed its main border crossing with its eastern neighbor at Lebombo. •Mozambique's independent presidential candidate Venâncio Mondlane - who came in second to the long-ruling Frelimo party's candidate, Daniel Chapo - has called for mass protests today (and then revolution) over allegations that Frelimo rigged the vote. •Frelimo's defense minister has warned that the army and police standing by to quell protests. They've used violence against protesters in recent weeks, killing at least 18, and seem prepared to quash new demonstrations with the same level of force. Iran •Iran's currency fell to an all-time low of 703,000 rials per U.S. dollar yesterday on fears that Pres.-elect Trump will institute tougher sanctions once he takes office. •By comparison, the rial traded at 32,000 per dollar in 2015 when Iran's nuclear deal was signed and 584,000 this July 30 when Pres. Pezeshkian was sworn in. •Though currency markets suggest otherwise, some Iranians interviewed in the NYT expressed hope for negotiations during Trump's presidency and optimism that Trump will help end the attritive wars Iran's proxies are fighting against Israel. Libya •After resolving (for now) its civil dispute over oil sector leadership, Libya is making bold moves to reinvigorate the sector. •First, it pushed three existing exploration permit-holders - OMV, Eni / BP, and Repsol - to resume operations last month. •Now, Bloomberg reports that Oil Minister Khalifa Abdul Sadiq plans to open a new round of bidding for onshore and offshore exploration blocks in late 2024 or early 2025. It will be Libya's first new tenders since 2007. Venezuela •Pres. Maduro congratulated Pres.-elect Trump on his election victory (which was legitimate, unlike Maduro's recent win) and expressed hope for a "new beginning that we trust will be a win-win" for both countries. •However, Maduro's optimism seems misplaced. During his first term, Trump tightened sanctions on Venezuela so much that Maduro's government cut off diplomatic relations with the U.S., and Maduro himself conceded yesterday that "In his first administration, President Donald Trump did not go well for us." (Editor's note: Winter is coming for the Maduro Cartel) Germany •Germany's Chancellor Scholz sacked his finance minister, Christian Lindner, effectively ending Scholz's Social Democrat party's coalition with Lindner's Free Democrats. •Their three-way coalition with the Green Party was always a fragile marriage of convenience with no unifying core objectives, so its dissolution was bound to happen at some point. What triggered it now was last week's leak of a position paper the pro-business Linder wrote criticizing his left-leaning coalition partners' progressive fiscal policies. Australia •Australia's government proposed a ban on the use of social media platforms like Instagram, TikTok, Facebook, and X by children under 16; citing the "harm to our kids" caused by unrealistic body image ideals and messages of misogyny. •Australia's ban could go into effect next year, and it's the strictest social media ban proposed to date: it adopts the highest age limit of any global bill so far, and makes no exemptions for parental consent or pre-existing accounts.
Open source reportOff Leash update 1 November Happy All Saints Day Ukraine •The Pentagon assessed that there are now 8,000 North Korean troops in Russia's Kursk region poised to cross into Ukraine. •Pres. Zelensky is frustrated that his allies have had "zero" response to the threat of North Korean boots on the ground. But he said this on South Korean TV, and may have intended it to entice South Korea to add support for Ukraine's side. •Meanwhile, U.S. diplomats are imploring their Chinese counterparts to talk North Korea into backing out of Ukraine. •That may work: U.S. analysts think China is already uncomfortable with North Korea - which has long depended on China - cozying up to Russia too, and wary that North Korea's involvement in Ukraine will draw the West into meddling in East Asian security concerns. Russia •A Russian court fined Google 20 undecillion rubles ($2.5 decillion) for removing 17 state-run propaganda channels from YouTube after Russia invaded Ukraine. •To put that number into perspective: oGoogle's fine: $2,500,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 oGlobal 2024 GDP forecast: $110,000,000,000,000 (1/23 quadrillionth Google's fine) o2023 Google net profit: $73,700,000,000 (1/33 quintillionth Google's fine) •For even more math fun, the fine doubles daily after the mid-2025 due date. •Given that it would take Google 33 quintillion years of profits to pay the fine at its starting level, Russia clearly doesn't expect payment any time soon: the penalty is effectively a ban on Google operations in Russia. Gaza •Several top U.S. officials are in Cairo pushing for a quick ceasefire agreement before next Tuesday's U.S. election, but Israel seems to want to wait to see who U.S. voters elect before agreeing to a deal. Hamas isn't in a rush either: it prefers to hold out for a permanent ceasefire rather than the temporary truces currently on the table. Iran •Two senior Iranian officials - IRGC deputy commander Gen. Ali Fadavi and the head of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei's office - said Iran plans to respond to Israel's retaliatory strikes, renewing the tit-for-tat cycle. •Following Israel's strikes, initial remarks by Khamenei and Pres. Pezeshkian seemed to suggest Iran would let Israel have the last word. Iran may be reconsidering now that news has spread that Israel's strikes caused more damage than Iranian officials initially let on. Other News •The Botswana Democratic Party - which has governed the southern African country since independence in 1966 - lost its majority for the first time in a surprising electoral rebuke. •Voters blamed the ruling party for economic woes caused by a slowdown in the diamond market, but also criticized some party figures for mismanagement and corruption. •To his credit, Pres. Masisi quickly conceded defeat and promised to ensure a smooth transition to the opposition Umbrella for Democratic Change Party and its president-elect, Duma Boko.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 11 October Middle East •Israel targeted a senior Hezbollah leader, Wafiq Safa, with an airstrike on central Beirut that killed at least 22 people and wounded at least 117 more. •Israel has often had a fairly high tolerance for civilian casualties in pursuit of its enemies' leadership, but now that it's taken out all of Hezbollah's top officials and is chasing increasingly low-level targets, its heavy-handed tactics are creating fresh resentment. A Beiruti whose apartment was destroyed in the blast told WaPo: "I am a moderate, but after this I am with Hezbollah. They are pushing me to be with the resistance." •Separately (but relatedly), the UN complained that Israeli troops fired on its peacekeepers in Lebanon twice in the last two days. Iran •Iran preemptively warned Israel that a strike on its nuclear facilities would violate "global red lines." •This seems like part of a propaganda blitz that Long War Journal describes as "a series of threats, half-truths, and outright lies in the service of softening the political blow that any Israeli strike could land while also raising military costs." •Russia's Pres. Putin met Iran's Pres. Pezeshkian in a hastily-arranged sidebar during a conference in Turkmenistan today. Pezeshkian likely hopes to get Putin's blessing for Iran to buy advanced Russian weapons like Su-35 fighter jets and S-400 air defense systems that Iran has long sought. Pakistan •Heavily-armed insurgents attacked coal mines in the Duki district of Balochistan, apparently targeting minority ethnic Pashtuns - at least 20 of whom died - and destroying mining machinery. •Local officials blamed Baloch separatists who have been intensifying their attacks on outsiders they perceive as threats to their quest for an independent state - like the Chinese engineers they killed with a suicide car bomb in Karachi on Monday. •The Pakistani government has ramped up security ahead of next week's Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Islamabad - lest Baloch separatists try to disrupt the talks. Ukraine •Ukraine's Parliament approved a major tax hike that will supplement increasingly hesitant donor contributions for its war effort. Personal income tax will nearly quadruple (from 1.5% to 5.0%) and bank profits will be retroactively taxed at double their previous rate of 25%. Much of the funds raised will go towards the war: military spending is currently over half the country's $100 billion annual budget. •Ukrainian journalist Victoria Roshchyna died in Russian detention, aged 27. Russia captured her in occupied eastern Ukraine in August 2023 and has released little information about why she was arrested or where in Russia she was being held. The Ukrainian journalists union is seeking to find out how and when she died. Other News •The Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded this year's peace prize to Nihon Hidankyo, a group of Japanese atomic-bomb survivors, for "its efforts to achieve a world free of nuclear weapons." •The chair of the award committee noted that its choice recognized that the "taboo against the use of nuclear weapons is under pressure" at present, which some media read as a rebuke on Russia's lowered threshold for using its nukes.
Open source reportOff Leash update 28 Aug Venezuela •Venezuela's opposition called for a fourth round of mass demonstrations at 11 am Caracas time today to demand recognition of its victory in the election that happened exactly one month ago. •Pres. Maduro refuses to give up his claim that he won the vote - and also refuses to provide proof. Meanwhile, the opposition has offered online tallies confirming its candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez, won more than twice as many votes as Maduro (a figure aligned with exit polls). •Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado attended the first three major rallies of the past month, and will likely participate today too - despite the threat of being arrested and locked up alongside thousands of Venezuelans that Maduro's goons have detained for infractions as minor as questioning election results on social media. •Separately, Maduro introduced "profound" changes to his cabinet last night. He shuffled about half of his ministers, but in a way that won't meaningfully affect policy: he rewarded diehard loyalists like VP Delcy Rodriguez and PSUV party leader Diosdado Cabello with expanded roles, and rotated some other allies between key positions. Iran •Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, revived long-shot hopes for new nuclear talks with the U.S. by telling his civilian government - now led by reformist president Masoud Pezeshkian - that there's "no harm" in engaging the "enemy." •Analysts interpreted Khamenei's cautious remarks as hesitant approval for Pezeshkian to proceed with early talks - but under strict red lines drawn out of distrust for "the Great Satan" (as Khamenei and his predecessor dub the U.S. - the UK and Israel are both "Little Satans"). Israel and Gaza •Israeli security forces conducted a significant drone and ground "counter-terrorism operation" in the West Bank, killing at least nine. It was one of the biggest West Bank operations in recent years. •There are conflicting reports about the circumstances of Israel's hostage rescue this week. A military spokesman said "precise intelligence" led commandos to Farhan al Qadi's location in a deep underground tunnel, but anonymous Israeli officials told the media that soldiers unexpectedly stumbled upon al Qadi - weak and unguarded - in the midst of a separate tunnel operation. Ukraine •Pres. Zelensky said he was open to discussing an armistice - first with Pres. Biden and VP Harris, and then with Russia. •Zelensky indicated that Ukraine's recent incursion into Kursk was part of a possible peace plan he's angling for: Ukrainian forces captured both troops and territory that can be traded back to Russia - for a price. Yemen •The Sounion tanker Yemen's Houthis set ablaze last week may be leaking some of the 1 million barrels of oil it was carrying. The Houthis have continued to intimidate and target salvage operations, prohibiting rescuers from examining the situation. China •Earlier today, leaders of Pacific Island nations approved an Australia-backed plan to establish four regional police training centers and a multinational force to respond to regional crises. •China opposed the plan and advocated against it: Beijing wants island nations to rely on it - and not Australia or its Western allies - for security. DRC •In July, Gecamines - a DRC mining parastatal - objected to the proposed sale of Chemaf's copper-cobalt mines to China's Norin Mining on the grounds that the transaction would be a "flagrant violation of the clauses of the farm-out contract between Gecamines and Chemaf" - i.e., it would recalibrate the royalties Gecamines gets from the Etoile and Mutoshi projects for doing nothing. •DRC's ministers are now standing behind Gecamines: Mines Minister Kizito Pakabomba also said the deal breached Chemaf's agreements with Gecamines, and on Friday the full council of ministers recommended blocking the sale.
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 July Russia •A Russian court issued an arrest warrant for murdered dissident Alexey Navalny's widow, Yulia Navalnaya, for "participating in an extremist community." •Navalnaya left Russia in 2021, and has continued to champion her late husband's opposition ("extremist") causes from abroad. She's also editing a manuscript about his political career that he wrote in prison, which will be published and released in the U.S. in October. She was already unlikely to return to Russia; with this warrant outstanding, she definitely won't. •Separately, the U.S. FBI shut down a Russian "bot farm" that used artificial intelligence to post pro-Putin disinformation in the U.S. and elsewhere. The shuttered entity created two websites and almost 1,000 X (fka Twitter) accounts with all-American pseudonyms like "Sue Williamson" purporting to be normal apple pie-eating folks who think Putin is just swell. Gaza •An Israeli strike on a school building in southern Gaza reportedly killed at least 25 people. Israel said it was targeting a militant who had participated in the Oct. 7 attacks - and who was apparently sheltering behind displaced Gazans in the school building. •The UN estimates that over 80% of Gaza's schools have been severely damaged or destroyed in the war - often because militants like this one seek refuge in them. •Finally, Al-Monitor reported that PM Netanyahu's four "non-negotiable" demands for a ceasefire deal are causing problems for Egyptian mediators, who are trying to find common ground that Hamas and Israel can agree on. Netanyahu's demands are new and far removed from the slim common ground Hamas can reasonably accede to. Iran •Analysts agree that President-elect Pezeshkian won't be able to effect real policy changes in Iran's rigid theocracy, but the NYT hopes he'll at least be able to "shift the tone" and "tilt Iran away from the hard-line policies such as the mandatory hijab, which led to widespread discontent, an uprising and harsh crackdowns by the authorities." •While campaigning, Pezeshkian also indicated he's willing to negotiate with the U.S. to alleviate sanctions: "Why should we be fighting with the whole world?" [Of course, he'll only be allowed to negotiate within the narrow bounds Ayatollah Khamenei and the clerics set for him.] •Separately, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines reported that Iran has been provoking and funding U.S.-based anti-Israel protests over Gaza to stoke political opposition to the war. In many cases, Iran-linked agents pose as online activists to agitate distrust in U.S. policy. China •Japanese observers spotted China's Shandong Carrier Group operating in the Philippine Sea for the first time this year (it deployed there three times last year). Its deployments always make Japan uneasy, and Japanese jets scrambled in response to this one, too. Electric Vehicles •Tesla's U.S. electric vehicle (EV) market share fell below 50% for the first time in the second quarter. Overall EV sales were up 11% year-over-year. Ford and GM also had strong quarterly sales.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 8 July Coming Up This Week •India's PM Modi will meet Pres. Putin in Moscow today. It will be Modi's first visit to Russia since Russia invaded Ukraine - and his first trip abroad since he was reelected. He hopes to secure the release of Indian nationals who India says were "duped" into serving in the Russian army. •NATO meets for its 75th anniversary summit in Washington tomorrow through Thursday. •Sunday is a big day in sports: the UEFA 2024 final, the Copa America final, and the men's Wimbledon final all take place on the same day. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,535/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $22,700/ton •Cobalt: $27.150/ton •Copper: $9,944/ton •Gold: $2,378/toz •Lead: $2,237/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.32/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $82.69/barrel •Zinc: $3,001/ton Iran •Reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian won Iran's runoff presidential election. •Pezeshkian seeks warmer relations with the West via experienced diplomats who he hopes will negotiate a softening of sanctions. •However, Iran's presidency has little power to effect real change, and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei - who truly calls the shots - doesn't want change. Analysts say he'll block Pezeshkian's efforts to warm up to the West. •Turnout was around 50% - much higher than the record low 40% logged in the first round. Israel and Gaza •Thousands of Israelis staged anti-government protests across the country yesterday. Demonstrators want fresh elections as well as a ceasefire deal with Hamas to free Israeli hostages. •There's a sliver of a chance that they'll get their wish on the ceasefire deal: Hamas finally dropped its opposition to one of Israel's key demands and indicated that it could agree to release some hostages during an initial six-week ceasefire before further peace talks hash out the long-run plan. •There are still some big obstacles blocking a final agreement, but this removes one of them. That said, Hamas still wants assurances that Israel will commit to continue peace talks after the first round of hostages are released - and Israel has already said it can't agree to that (it wants the option to resume fighting if necessary). •Meanwhile, an Israel strike killed Ehab Al-Ghussein, a senior Hamas administrator, in a Gaza City school where he was sheltering with civilians. Ukraine and Russia •Hungary's Viktor Orban retroactively announced that he had met with Russia's Pres. Putin in Moscow and China's Pres. Xi in Beijing following his surprise talks with Ukraine's Pres. Zelensky in Kyiv. •Orban portrayed his haphazard outreach as a victory for diplomacy: "Hungary is slowly becoming the only country in Europe that can speak to everyone." •Others would say Hungary is the only country in Europe still willing to talk to Putin. NATO SecGen Jens Stoltenberg sought to downplay Orban's visit to Moscow as unrepresentative of NATO's position on Russia: "different NATO allies interact with Moscow in different ways." China •China sailed its largest coast guard vessel into the Philippines' exclusive economic zone and anchored it there, leading the Philippines to (fairly) accuse it of "intimidation." Afghanistan •The Taliban shifted some senior government officials around: the acting Central Bank (Da Afghanistan Bank) head, Hedayatullah Badri, is now Minister of Mines and Petroleum, replacing Shahabuddin Delawar, who will become the acting head of the Afghan Red Crescent Society. Other News •France's legislative elections yesterday resulted in a hung parliament - and a clear loss for Pres. Macron, whose party and coalition lost a third of its seats to both the far-left and the far-right.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 5 July Iran •Analysts are struggling to predict the outcome of today's runoff presidential election in Iran. •On one hand, conservatives have consolidated their support behind hardline candidate Saeed Jalili. •But on the other, many moderates who fear the consequences of a hardline president are turning out to support Jalili's reformist rival, Dr. Masoud Pezeshkian. •Turnout for today's runoff seems much higher than the record low level of 40% set in the first round. Mozambique •The South African Development Community (SADC) announced the end of its peacekeeping mission in Cabo Delgado. •The three-year mission achieved mixed results: it initially succeeded in reducing the capacity of militant groups to carry out attacks and making the region safe for displaced residents to return home, but the pace of attacks began to rise again in late 2023, causing renewed displacement. •The SADC mission also failed to fulfill its mandate to train Mozambican security forces because it couldn't identify what kind of training the local forces needed. •Those questionably-trained Mozambican security forces will now take over responsibility for the region's security from the withdrawing SADC mission. DRC •A DRC military court sentenced 25 soldiers to death for "fleeing the enemy, dissipating munitions of war and violating orders" after running away from a battle with M23 rebels. •While Congolese soldiers are fleeing the fight, the better-disciplined (and Rwanda-backed) M23 has been able to gain the upper hand and capture several strategic towns in recent weeks. Sahel •Junta leaders from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger will meet for the first-ever "Alliance of Sahel States" (AES, en français) summit in Niamey this weekend. •The AES countries have a lot to talk about: all three were booted from the regional ECOWAS bloc because of their coups, so they're now hoping to replace the economic and defense benefits it enjoyed from that alliance by forming a parallel bloc. •They even timed their first AES summit to coincide with ECOWAS's next meeting, which takes place in Abuja on Sunday. •Separately, U.S. troops will complete their withdrawal from Niamey Air Base 101 on Sunday. The remaining U.S. troops in Niger will withdraw - per the junta's demand - by September 15. Gaza and Israel •U.S. and Israeli officials renewed whispers of hope for a ceasefire deal with Hamas after a "breakthrough" in talks. However, even optimistic U.S. officials conceded there are still some major obstacles standing in the way of a truce. •Meanwhile farther north, Israel killed a Hezbollah commander in a drone strike, and Hezbollah retaliated by firing a volley of rockets into Israel as an "initial response." Other News •Disgruntled British voters overthrew the Conservative party after a 14-year reign. Former human rights lawyer Keir Starmer will be the new Prime Minister. •Former PM Liz Truss - who was PM for exactly as many days as David Blaine lived in a glass box suspended over the Thames River - was one of the senior Tory MPs who lost her seat.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 27 June Bolivia •A senior Bolivian general, Juan José Zuñiga, staged a brief and bizarre coup attempt yesterday. •His team of soldiers drove a military vehicle through a palace door in an effort to oust democratically-elected President Luis Arce, but retreated less than three hours later - after it became clear that the rest of the military and police force remained loyal to Arce's command. •Just before he was arrested, Zuñiga claimed that Arce asked him to stage a coup: "The president told me, 'The situation is very screwed up, very critical. It is necessary to prepare something to raise my popularity.'" •There may be some truth to that: Arce is competing with his popular predecessor, Evo Morales (who was ousted in 2019 in what he called a "coup"), for their leftist party's 2025 nomination, and squashing a coup attempt helped him look like a patriotic defender of democracy. Arce was quick to call Bolivians out to the streets to cheer for him and "against this coup d’état." •The NYT pointed out that Bolivia has had 190 coups or revolutions in its 200 years of existence. China •Taiwan's government warned its citizens against unnecessary travel to mainland China, where authorities recently threatened to prosecute and execute "diehard" advocates for Taiwanese independence. [Beijing has been tightening its grip on Taiwan as a reaction to the election of new president Lai Ching Te, who the CCP considers to be pro-Taiwanese independence even though he hasn't explicitly advocated for it.] Kenya •Kenya's Pres. Ruto rejected the proposed tax bill that sparked a wave of protests in Nairobi: "Listening keenly to the people of Kenya who have said loudly that they want nothing to do with this finance bill, I concede, and therefore, I will not sign the 2024 finance bill, and it shall subsequently be withdrawn." •Kenya has a heavy debt burden, so it will need to find money to make repayments from something other than this rejected tax on basic goods. Afghanistan •Afghanistan's cricket team lost to South Africa in the semifinals of the T20 World Cup, but had a good run: the country is still celebrating the team's surprise upset over the reigning T20 champion, Australia. Iran •Two of the five conservative candidates approved to run in Iran's presidential election tomorrow have dropped out to consolidate the conservative vote. •Their withdrawal leaves three hardliners running against one moderate (by Iranian standards), heart surgeon Masoud Pezeshkian. •Of the hardliners, parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf and ex-nuclear negotiator Saaed Jalili are polling strongest. •Analysts suggest Pezeshkian has a chance of winning if Ghalibaf and Jalili both stay in the race and split the conservative vote. •Iran's presidency is a figurehead role: no matter who wins, the conservative clerics will still dictate policy. DRC •A suspected M23 mortar attack killed two South African peacekeepers - and wounded 20 others - near Goma. Other News •Police in the Maldives arrested Minister for the Environment, Climate Change, and Energy Fathimath Shamnaz Ali Saleem for allegedly vexing her boss, Pres. Mohamed Muizzu, with a "black magic" curse. •The witchcraft accusation seems bogus: if she were really a sorceress, she would presumably use her powers - and her post - to stop her country from sinking into the sea. •Lastly, a U.S. court sentenced former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández to 45 years in prison for collaborating with drug gangs to traffick hundreds of tons of cocaine into the U.S. while he was president.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 24 June Coming Up This Week •WSJ journalist Evan Gershkovich will go on trial in Yekaterinburg, Russia on trumped-up espionage charges starting Wednesday. The media will be locked out of the trial, which could last between four months and one year. •Iran will vote for a successor to late president Raisi on Friday. The clerics have blocked most reformist candidates from running...which could backfire and split conservative support between five hardline candidates, leaving the sole moderate candidate allowed on the ballot - Masoud Pezeshkian - with a greater share of the vote than he would've otherwise received (he's still unlikely to win - and even if he wins, unlikely to effect change from the mostly-symbolic presidency). •On Saturday, the UN will hold a conference on Afghanistan in Qatar, and the Taliban will attend for the first time. To the dismay of some rights campaigners, the UN dropped all the preconditions that deterred the Taliban from attending the two previous UN conferences on Afghanistan - like including women's rights on the agenda - to encourage Taliban participation. •The first round of France's snap parliamentary election will also take place on Saturday. Polls predict strong support for the far-right Rassemblement National. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,514/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $22,900/ton •Cobalt: $27,150/ton •Copper: $9,683/ton •Gold: $2,332/toz •Lead: $2,191/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.70/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $80.87/barrel •Zinc: $2,844/ton Russia •Gunmen carried out several coordinated attacks on churches, synogogues, and police stations in two cities in the restive, majority-Muslim Russian region of Dagestan. •Russian authorities said the attackers were "adherents of an international terrorist organization," and their tactics and high degree of coordination recall Islamic State-Khorasan's (IS-K's) attack on Crocus Hall three months ago, but no group - including IS-K - has claimed the Dagestan attacks yet. •Pres. Putin prefers to brush ethnic and religious tensions under the rug to preserve pro-Russia harmony, so these latest attacks will be another annoyance for him. Some pro-Putin politicians are already blaming the West (without evidence) for inciting them. Ukraine •Russian authorities also blamed the U.S. for supplying the ATACMS missiles they say Ukraine used in a strike on Crimea that ended up killing at least four civilians on a crowded beach in Crimea yesterday. •[To be clear, Ukraine didn't target a crowded beach: Russia intercepted missiles headed for military targets (which Russia says the U.S. helped identify) as they flew over a crowded beach, causing fragments to fall on beachgoers below.] Gaza •Prime Minister Netanyahu told an interviewer that Israel's current ground offensive in southern Gaza is "about to end," and suggested that he could redeploy some of the troops fighting there to the north to intimidate - and perhaps eventually fight - Hezbollah. •Meanwhile, Israel's Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, is in Washington this week to lobby for continued U.S. support for Israel. Afghanistan •Nicaragua appointed a "non-resident" ambassador to Afghanistan, but stopped short of officially recognizing the Taliban government. The new envoy, Michael Campbell, is also Nicaragua's ambassador to China, and will serve both roles from his office in Beijing. •Afghanistan scored a surprise upset against Australia in the T20 Cricket World Cup on Saturday. I don't understand anything about cricket or how it's scored, but I can tell from the media's gushing reports that Afghanistan's "148/6 (20)" was an impressive win over the reigning champion's "127 (19.2)". Afghanistan plays Bangladesh tomorrow and could still make the semi-finals. Energy in Africa •Guinea-Conakry's junta signed a memorandum of understanding with Russia's Rosatom for an ambitious project to build a floating nuclear power plant.
Open source report