U.S.–Iran strikes, proposed Ukrainian Patriot production, and U.S.–Spain trade tensions

Off Leash update 9 July 2026

IRAN •The U.S. and Iran traded strikes for a second day. The U.S. has struck at least 170 military targets in Iran in the latest flare-up, while Iran said it targeted U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. •Pres. Trump declared the temporary ceasefire "over," but a return to full-scale conflict is probably the worst of his all-bad options. •He could choose peace, but any ceasefire deal Iran would agree to would be on its terms, leaving Trump with nothing to show for the estimated $113 billion that U.S. taxpayers have spent on the war so far. Trump is more likely to choose an awkward middle option, with a fragile peace punctuated by occasional skirmishes like this week's. •Iran's leaders are conflicted, too. Relative moderates like Pres. Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi favor negotiating peace, but hardliners are blocking their path. This week, supporters of a hardline faction physically attacked Pezeshkian and Araghchi while shouting "death to the appeasers." •Separately, the NYT reported that the masses mourning former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei were not entirely orchestrated by the government. Many Iranians the visiting journalists interviewed "had come voluntarily to express their grief and, above all, their defiance," and blamed the U.S. and Israel - as opposed to their own repressive leaders - for a war that has made their lives harder. [At least that's what the reporters heard from the Iranians they were allowed to interview through government-provided translators.]

UKRAINE •After meeting Pres. Zelensky on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Turkey, Pres. Trump announced that he'd agreed to let Ukraine make its own Patriot missiles. That would make Ukraine the third country - after Germany and Japan - licensed to make Patriots outside the U.S. [Germany is actively producing them; Japan has yet to exercise its license.] •Bloomberg pointed out that it will still take years - and lots of help from one of the two U.S. contractors that make Patriots, RTX and Lockheed Martin - for Ukraine to get a production line up and running. •Lockheed Martin estimates that it will take four years to triple its Patriot production capacity in the U.S., and construction time is likely to stretch far longer under Russian fire in Ukraine. That's why some experts suggested building Ukraine's Patriot factory under NATO's security shield in Poland instead.

TRADE •Speaking at the NATO summit in Turkey, Pres. Trump threatened to cut off trade with Spain and its 50 million "hopeless, bad people." •Trump was overall very pleased with the NATO summit and the "tremendous love" he felt there, but he's mad at Spain's leaders for repeatedly refusing his demands to raise military spending and - more recently - refusing to let the U.S. use Spain's bases to support Trump's war in Iran. •It will be hard for the U.S. to make good on Trump's threat. First, the European Union negotiates trade matters as a bloc, and the entire bloc could retaliate against trade actions targeting one of its members. In addition, the U.S. sells more to Spain than it buys from it, so severing trade ties would harm U.S. exporters more than Spanish ones.