Off Leash Intel · loading
9 direct mentions across 9 briefings, with 11 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
Failures in the earthquake response will likely deepen public resentment toward interim President Delcy Rodriguez’s government. Some observers are calling for U.S. assistance.
Assessment development · updated through
Failures in the earthquake response will likely deepen public resentment toward interim President Delcy Rodriguez’s government. Some observers are calling for U.S. assistance.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Delcy Rodriguez dossier
10 mapped developments across 1 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Caracas
Maduro reshuffled about half his ministers and expanded roles for Vice President Delcy Rodriguez and PSUV leader Diosdado Cabello. The changes reward loyalists rather than meaningfully changing policy.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 3 July 2026 UKRAINE AND RUSSIA •Russia pummeled Kyiv with 74 ballistic missiles and 496 drones overnight, killing at least 27 in what Kyiv mayor (and former heavyweight boxing champion) Vitaly Klitschko called the "most massive attack" on the capital yet, in terms of the number of weapons deployed and locations struck. •The Economist hypothesized that Russia's attack "was probably retribution for Ukrainian drone attacks in June that disabled Moscow’s oil refinery," leaving the Kremlin "angry and frustrated." •Meanwhile, Russian legislator Nina Ostanina boldly accused Pres. Putin's government of concealing the extent of the fuel crisis resulting from Ukraine's long-range strikes on energy infrastructure. •Ostanina claimed that almost one-third of Russia's refineries are now offline, which sounds far more dire than Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak's acknowledgement that "certain gas stations" were a little low on fuel. (Ostanina's rare openness wasn't motivated by a desire to spread the truth because it's the right thing to do; rather, she's concerned that voters will punish elected officials like her for misleading them once they learn the truth.) NORDSTREAM •This week, German prosecutors indicted Ukrainian army officer Serhiy Kuznietsov on war crimes charges related to the 2022 sabotage attack on the Baltic Nord Stream pipeline that was set to supply Russian gas to Germany. •In the course of their indictment, prosecutors alleged that Ukrainian "state authorities" ordered the attack and Kuznietsov merely carried it out. •Kyiv certainly had a motive to cut off a key source of its enemy's future war funding. It also had a reason to conceal its state involvement: Germany was and is one of Ukraine's strongest supporters in Europe, and Kyiv wouldn't have wanted to risk antagonizing its backers in Berlin with an attack on a key potential source of German energy. With these new charges, Kyiv will have some explaining to do. VENEZUELA •Venezuela now estimates that last week's twin earthquakes killed over 2,500 people; thousands are still missing. •Emerging reports suggest that interim President Delcy Rodriguez's government has severely botched its response to the disaster. •Residents of the hardest-hit state, La Guaira, say they got no government help until well after the crucial first 48 hours after the tremors. When government responders finally arrived, they did little to help. Residents criticized soldiers for standing around while volunteers dug through rubble, and eyewitnesses reported that four policemen sent into a ruined building to rescue a child came out with bags of U.S. dollar bills instead of a survivor. (Rodriguez implausibly claims that all such negative reports are misinformed and politically motivated.) •The botched response is likely to fuel public resentment of Rodriguez and her feckless government - although, to be fair, Rodriguez inherited a chronically corrupt and inept government and lacked the resources with which to turn it around in the six months she's been in charge. •Many - including The Economist - are calling for the U.S. government, which installed Rodriguez after capturing her predecessor, to step in and help. IRAN •U.S. intelligence suggested that Israel may have been planning to assassinate several of Iran's more pragmatic leaders - including foreign minister Abbas Araghchi and parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf - this spring as U.S.-Iran peace talks got underway. •The U.S. reportedly asked Israel to refrain from targeting Araghchi or Ghalibaf - both of whom were (and are) deeply involved in nascent negotiations that would certainly have been derailed if one or both of them were taken out. •Separately, the Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. negotiators dangled an offer to unfreeze some of the $100 billion in Iranian funds overseas banks in exchange for Iran's agreement to abandon its plans to charge tolls for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. •The offer wasn't rich enough for Tehran, whose negotiators rejected it. Iran's leaders are increasingly convinced that they have the right to profit from traffic through the Strait and are entitled to their frozen funds anyway under the terms of the memorandum of understanding they signed with the U.S. SYRIA •A bombing killed at least nine people at a crowded cafe in central Damascus today. •Saraya Ansar al-Sunnah - a little-known jihadist group - claimed the blast, but Syrian authorities think Islamic State was actually responsible for it.
Open source reportOff Leash update 29 June 2026 COMING UP THIS WEEK •Leaders from the Latin American trading bloc Mercosur meet tomorrow in Paraguay. They're expected to formally announce an economic partnership with Japan. •Tomorrow is the "deadline" that anti-immigrant groups gave undocumented immigrants to leave South Africa. There's growing concern that the protests the agitators planned for tomorrow could turn violent. •Canada celebrates Canada Day on Wednesday. •Saturday marks the semiquincentennial (250th anniversary) of the adoption of the U.S. Declaration of Independence. •The Tour de France starts Saturday in Spain. The 113th edition of the cycling race features 21 stages covering 3,300 km (2,050 miles) over 23 days. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,180/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $35,022/ton •Bitcoin: $59,983 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $13,358/ton •Ethereum: $1,579 •Gold: $4,064/toz •Lead: $1,904/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.27/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $69.85/barrel •Zinc: $3,472/ton RUSSIA •Pres. Putin conceded that Ukraine's long-range drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure "are creating problems," adding, "that's obvious." •It was the first time Putin directly acknowledged that Ukrainian strikes have caused "a certain shortage" in Russia's fuel supplies, but he insisted the situation was "not critical." •The shortage appears to be critical enough to motivate Russia to consider importing gasoline from abroad, though: media reports suggest the Kremlin is already seeking fuel imports from Kazakhstan and India. AFGHANISTAN •Pakistan carried out another round of cross-border airstrikes targeting alleged Pakistani Taliban hideouts in Afghanistan. •Afghanistan's Taliban government, as usual, said the strikes killed only civilians and complained about Pakistan's violations of its sovereignty and airspace. •The Pakistani strikes were a retaliation for - among other incidents - a militant attack the day before on the Karachi regional headquarters of the paramilitary Pakistan Rangers that killed three soldiers and was claimed by Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, a breakaway faction of the Pakistani Taliban. •Pakistan accuses the Afghan Taliban of supporting and sheltering the Pakistani Taliban and other militant groups carrying out attacks inside Pakistan, but Islamabad's real issue is that the attacks reveal its inability to defend its territory. Kabul is a convenient scapegoat to blame its internal failures on. SERBIA •Serbia's Pres. Aleksandar Vucic gave in to 18 months of student-led protests against his government and said he would step down within weeks. •However, Vucic's resignation failed to quell the protests or satisfy his critics, who - with good reason - believe he's only superficially stepping down and intends to stay in power behind the scenes. Indeed, he gave no clear timeline for elections to replace him, and said he would "help" his ruling Serbian Progressive Party in the next election. •Analysts believe his plan is to resign from the mostly-ceremonial presidency only to seek to return to the more powerful role of prime minister, which he held from 2014 to 2017. VENEZUELA •Bloomberg reported that Venezuela's popular exiled opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado, is trying to return to her country as soon as possible, in light of the disastrous earthquakes that struck last week. •Analysts suggest Machado wants to be waiting in the wings to rally her many supporters behind a bid to challenge interim President Delcy Rodriguez if Rodriguez's government bungles its disaster response. •The U.S. - which installed Rodriguez in her post after capturing her predecessor, Nicolas Maduro - reportedly denied Machado's request for help returning to Venezuela this week, with one U.S. official calling it a "political stunt." The U.S. likely prefers she bide her time and let Rodriguez's government focus on relief efforts instead of political rivalry. IRAN •The U.S. and Iran traded retaliatory strikes over the weekend before agreeing to "stand down for now" - conveniently just in time for U.S. market open. (Iran didn't confirm the detente but appears likely to uphold it.) •The NYT wrote that the four-day flare-up was part of a "necessary gambit" for Iran to assert its control over the Strait of Hormuz so it can retain leverage over the U.S. in ongoing negotiations for a final peace deal. LEBANON •Israel and Lebanon agreed to a framework for a peace deal, but didn't share details. •U.S. SecState Rubio - who helped mediate the proto-agreement - described it as only the first step in "what will be a difficult journey." The main point of the accord is to secure Lebanon's help in containing Hezbollah, which was not part of the deal and swiftly condemned it.
Open source reportOff Leash update 25 June 2026 VENEZUELA •Two strong "doublet" earthquakes struck Venezuela yesterday, killing at least 32 and injuring more than 700. •USGS models suggest casualties will rise far higher and could well exceed 10,000 or more. The quake struck on a public holiday when many Venezuelans were at home, and many Venezuelan homes are shoddily built and prone to collapse. Even Caracas's main airport - which was not shoddily built - sustained such extensive damage that it was forced to close. •Interim President Delcy Rodriguez declared a state of emergency and called on medical workers to care for survivors. LEBANON •Israel said its forces have trapped dozens of Hezbollah militants inside an encircled tunnel complex under the Ali al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon. The militants are staying put inside: they're likely hoping that U.S. pressure will force Israel to stand down before they run out of food and water underground. •The NYT pointed out similarities to a standoff between Israeli forces and Hamas militants in Gaza last year, in which hundreds of Hamas fighters were trapped in tunnels under Israeli-controlled terrain as a ceasefire came into effect. Israel denied the militants' request for safe passage and demanded their unconditional surrender instead. Many surrendered or were killed. •Meanwhile, Israel and Lebanon held a fifth round of U.S.-mediated ambassador-level talks in Washington, DC. They reportedly discussed a U.S.-backed "pilot" in which Israel would cede some of the southern Lebanese territory it occupied during its war with Hezbollah to pre-vetted Lebanese army units to control. •The U.S. is backing the idea because it would help satisfy a condition of the U.S.-Iran MoU requiring Israel to withdraw from Lebanon. [However, the plan would let Israel keep a military presence in a border buffer zone, and Iran might consider that a violation of its conditions.] CHINA •China's newest and largest aircraft carrier, the Fujian, sailed through the Taiwan Strait on Tuesday as a warning to the self-governing island, which had just launched a five-day exercise to practice defense against a Chinese invasion. •The provocative transit drew rebuke not only from Taiwan, but also from France, Germany, and the UK, who united to issue a rare joint statement condemning Chinese activity around Taiwan. [The statement was referring to Chinese activity around Taiwan in general and didn't specifically mention the Fujian's transit the day before.] •Separately, LineShine, a Chinese supercomputer, was anointed the world's most powerful supercomputer in the biannual TOP500 ranking, displacing HP's El Capitan. LineShine also had the greatest power consumption of the 500 supercomputers in the ranking.
Open source reportOff Leash update 1 June 2026 COMING UP THIS WEEK •Ethiopia votes in parliamentary elections today. Abiy Ahmed's ruling Prosperity Party is sure to win, since large parts of the rebellious regions of Amhara and Tigray won't vote and Abiy's strongest rivals have been sidelined or jailed. •The Oslo Freedom Forum - Human Rights Foundation's annual summit - starts today. This year's speakers include Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado and actor Richard Gere, who played a victim of human rights abuses in Red Corner and Bent (and is also an established rights advocate off-screen). •Saturday is the 82nd anniversary of D-Day. •Sunday is a big day for elections: Armenia and Kosovo vote in parliamentary polls, and Peru votes in a run-off presidential election. In Peru, right-wing candidate Keiko Fujimori has a narrow polling lead over leftist candidate Roberto Sanchez. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,667/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $35,474/ton •Bitcoin: $72,614 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $13,636/ton •Ethereum: $1,982 •Gold: $4,510/toz •Lead: $2,016/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.33/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $90.40/barrel •Zinc: $3,540/ton COLOMBIA •Far-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella won the first round of Colombia's presidential election, but with less support than he needed to win the presidency outright. He'll face far-left candidate Iván Cepeda in a run-off on June 21. •President Petro - who backed Cepeda - rejected the result, citing (but not substantiating) irregularities. IRAN •Iran and the U.S. traded strikes over the weekend, but continued to exercise restraint: the U.S. said its strikes were in "self-defense," and Iran said it was merely retaliating against the U.S. strikes. •Several reports suggested that Pres. Trump sent a draft agreement back to Iran with some proposed changes to Iran's offer, but other accounts suggest there isn't much room to negotiate between the two sides' demands. •U.S. ships have reportedly quietly escorted around 70 commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz in the past three weeks. That's an approximate figure, since the U.S.-guided passages have been "dark," with transponders turned off, and probably hugging the Omani coast to stay as far as possible from Iranian fire. It corresponds to an average of about three vessels per day, which is far short of the 100 per day that transited the Strait pre-war. RUSSIA •The French Navy intercepted and boarded a sanctioned and false-flagged Russian oil tanker, the Tagor, in international waters about 400 nautical miles west of Brittany. •Pres. Macron justified the seizure in a post on X: "It is unacceptable for ships to circumvent international sanctions, violate the law of the sea, and fund the war that Russia has been waging against Ukraine for more than four years." It was the fourth time the French Navy has boarded a Russian "shadow fleet" tanker since Sep. 2025. •The Kremlin complained about the "illegal" seizure, which it said was "bordering on international piracy." VENEZUELA •The AP reported on emerging rifts in interim President Delcy Rodriguez's government, with longtime Maduro loyalists criticizing Rodriguez's reforms. They particularly object to her deportation of close Maduro ally Alex Saab to face trial in the U.S., and her authorization for U.S. forces to conduct training in Caracas. •Andrés Izarra - who served as communications minister under Hugo Chavez and tourism minister under Maduro before falling out with Maduro's cronies and fleeing into exile - said the divide isn't about Chavismo ideology, which Izarra thinks died with its founder in 2013. Rather, "since there is no ideological foundation, it is simply a struggle for power, money, positions, and survival."
Open source reportOff Leash update 1 May MALI •Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) called on "all sincere patriots, without exception" to join its efforts to overthrow Mali's military government under Col. Assimi Goita. •JNIM and its allies have imposed a blockade of Bamako, and residents of the capital are already feeling the squeeze. Food prices rose 45% in the past few days as militant checkpoints restricted 70% of commercial transit routes into the city. •Goita's government will struggle to weather the storm, and the odds of a fresh coup are high and rising. UKRAINE •After much Ukrainian lobbying, Israel refused to unload a vessel carrying grain that Kyiv claims Russia stole from occupied Ukrainian territories. •The Panama-flagged Panormitis is reportedly now seeking another buyer for its cargo, but Ukraine will make that difficult. •Kyiv is on a mission to target Russia's "shadow grain fleet," which it claims has exported 850,000 tons of stolen Ukrainian grain on 50 different voyages between January and April. DRC •The U.S. Treasury slapped sanctions on former Congolese President Joseph Kabila for his alleged support of the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels stoking conflict in eastern DRC. •Pres. Tshisekedi's government in Kinshasa - which sentenced Kabila to death in absentia in a military trial last year - welcomed the move. •Kabila hasn't publically commented yet, but will probably accuse Washington of helping Tshisekedi carry out a vendetta against a political rival. • He should return all the DRC resources he stole while President and he wouldn't have to worry so much about the justice that will visit him. MYANMAR •Myanmar's military government said it had moved Aung San Suu Kyi - the civilian leader it ousted in 2021 - from prison to house arrest in a performative gesture of amnesty aimed at bolstering the repressive junta's global legitimacy. •The junta said it had also generously shortened her sentence by 4.5 years, meaning the now-80 year old will be freed when she's 99 instead of 102 (assuming she lives that long and they don't slap new charges on her). •Emerging reports suggest Aung San Suu Kyi has actually been under house arrest for around 18 months already, but the junta waited until China's foreign minister intervened to announce the move and claim credit for its "benevolence." •It has been less benevolent towards the other 22,000 political prisoners that rights groups think it holds. VENEZUELA •Venezuela's interim president, Delcy Rodriguez, announced a public sector minimum wage hike of 26% to $240 per month and a pension raise to $70 per month, which she said was still "not enough." •It's not clear how her government will pay the higher rates. It has struggled to pay the previous, much-lower rates in recent months, and the shortfall is what triggered the protests that forced her to promise higher wages and pensions.
Open source reportOff Leash update 9 April IRAN •American and Iranian delegations will meet in Islamabad starting tomorrow to try to negotiate a more permanent peace than the current, 14-day ceasefire that both sides have already accused the other of violating. •Ahead of that summit, Iran circulated its draft 10-point counterproposal, which the White House claimed was different from the plan it had called "a workable basis on which to negotiate." •The public draft Iran circulated yesterday contained several points that the U.S. delegation won't be able to agree to and preemptively criticized as "fundamentally unserious." For example, it explicitly allows Iran to enrich uranium and control transit through the Strait of Hormuz, and demands a U.S. military withdrawal from the entire Gulf region and reparations for war damages. •The White House is working on its own proposal that's sure to be starkly different from Iran's. It's hard to imagine the two sides reaching any middle ground from such distant starting positions. •It doesn't seem like the two sides even agree about the terms of the current, 14-day ceasefire. One of its key tenets - at least as Pres. Trump pitched it - was reopening the Strait of Hormuz for shipping, but Iran still controls traffic through the Strait and is even strengthening its tolling system with a new plan to charge transiting ships $1 per barrel of oil aboard, payable in Bitcoin (so it can't be traced or confiscated). •Gulf countries also reported continued incursions by Iranian missiles and drones after the ceasefire was announced. LEBANON •Another reason the current, 14-day U.S.-Iran ceasefire is wobbling is because of a disagreement over whether it extends to Lebanon. Iran and Pakistan say it does; the U.S. and Israel say it does not. •Israel forced the issue by carrying out its deadliest strikes yet on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon yesterday, killing at least 254 in what Lebanon's Pres. Aoun called a "massacre." •U.S. Vice President JD Vance - who will lead the U.S. delegation in truce talks with Islamabad this weekend - said yesterday that Israel offered to restrain its (future) strikes on Lebanon for the sake of ongoing peace talks. •That may be too little, too late for Iran, whose deputy foreign minister called Israel's strikes on Lebanon a "grave violation" of the temporary ceasefire. VENEZUELA •Venezuela's interim president, Delcy Rodriguez, announced a "responsible increase" in the public sector minimum wage starting next month - as opposed to the highly irresponsible past wage hikes that triggered inflation crises. •The country's minimum wage has been stuck at an unliveable 130 bolivares - about $0.28 at official rates - per month since March 2022, forcing many workers to sustain themselves from bonuses or side hustles. •Rodriguez didn't give a figure for the new minimum wage, but she said oil and mining revenues would pay for it. SAHEL •Two leading jihadist groups in the Sahel - Al Qaeda-linked Jama'at Nusrat al Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) and Islamic State in the Sahel Province (ISSP) - took their long-running rivalry to Niger for the first time, with a series of skirmishes in Tillaberi, western Niger. •JNIM and ISSP have been fighting each other in the Sahel since at least 2019, but their previous clashes have been restricted to Mali and Burkina Faso. •Analysts say the spillover into Niger is a sign that JNIM sees an opportunity to follow ISSP's lead in exploiting security gaps in Niger and northern Nigeria, while ISSP resents the competition and is willing to fight to retain exclusive control. SOCIAL MEDIA •Greece became the third country - after Australia and Spain - to announce plans to ban minors from social media. Several other countries - including Denmark, France, Indonesia, and Malaysia - are considering similar bans. •Proponents of the bans believe social media usage harms children and a ban will prevent harm, but critics say bans will only push online minors to darker and less-regulated parts of the internet.
Open source reportOff Leash update 2 April IRAN •Pres. Trump used his primetime address on Iran last night to declare that the war was "nearing completion" and - having achieved its objectives - would wrap up in the next two or three weeks, with or without a deal. •Critics complained that he moved the goalposts to be able to claim victory in achieving objectives like regime change ("they’re all dead, so I would consider that regime change") and eliminating Iran's nuclear threat (he now says the 400 kg of enriched uranium that Iran could use to race towards a bomb is "so far underground, I don't care about that"). •He also offered no clear plan for ending the month-long conflict, and alternated between threats to "bring them back to the stone ages, where they belong" and claims that "discussions were ongoing" - and going well, since "we have all the cards; they have none." •Iran denies that any such discussions are taking place, and its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) seems to still have some cards left. Yesterday, it said it would start targeting the Middle East offices of major U.S. companies like Apple, Boeing, Google, JPMorgan Chase, Microsoft, and Nvidia. •While denying that talks are already underway, Iran's Pres. Pezeshkian told European Council President Antonio Costa that Iran is open to a truce as long as it includes guarantees of a permanent end to hostilities. Iranian hardliners hate the idea of negotiating any kind of truce. •Separately, Long War Journal assessed that Iran and its proxies fired fewer projectiles in the period from March 28 to April 1 than they had in earlier parts of the war, but that their recent strikes have been more accurate and effective at penetrating air defenses. IRAQ •It emerged that Kataib Hezbollah, an Iran-linked Iraqi militia, was behind the kidnapping of American journalist Shelly Kittleson in Baghdad on Tuesday. •Though Kataib Hezbollah has links to Iran, its practice of kidnapping Westerners predates the war. It kidnapped a Russian-Israeli researcher in early 2023 and held her for nearly three years before freeing her under pressure from the Trump administration. •It now wants to trade Kittleson for several of its members imprisoned in Iraq. RUSSIA AND UKRAINE •Ukraine is doing its best to hinder Russia's ability to reap windfall profits from high oil prices and temporary partial sanctions relief by targeting Russian oil export infrastructure. Ukrainian drones carried out an unprecedented scale of strikes on export facilities that took up to 40% of Russia's total crude export capacity offline. Some capacity has now been restored. •Separately, Russia claimed that its forces had taken full control of eastern Ukraine's Luhansk region. Russia has long controlled 99% of Luhansk, and has now thrice claimed to have captured the last remaining pockets of it. •Like its two previous claims, this one seems premature: the Institute for the Study of War assessed that the settlements of Nadiya and Novoyehorivka remain outside Russian control. VENEZUELA •The U.S. lifted sanctions on Venezuela's new president, Delcy Rodriguez. Rodriguez had been blacklisted since 2018 for her role as vice president in her predecessor's repressive regime. •Since the U.S. ousted her predecessor, Nicolas Maduro, and installed her in his place, she's been pliant and willing to work with the U.S. on priority goals like opening Venezuelan oil and mining assets to U.S. investment. NATO •Pres. Trump threatened to withdraw the U.S. from NATO, which he called a "paper tiger," over allies' reluctance to join his war with Iran. It's not the first time Trump has threatened to pull out of the alliance, but this time he seems more likely to follow through. Having heard the same threat before, NATO members are also probably better prepared for an alliance without the U.S.
Open source reportOff Leash update 20 March GAZA •As the U.S. and Israel pounded Iran last week, U.S. mediators shared a demilitarization proposal with Iran's Palestinian proxy, Hamas. •The offer demands a "complete handover" and "full decommissioning" of all Hamas weapons - as well as those of all other armed groups in Gaza - and guarantees support for the territory's large-scale rebuilding in return. •Hamas reportedly has about a week to formally respond, but without a biting ultimatum, its leaders will probably stall for more time to strengthen their control over Gaza so they can negotiate a softer commitment to disarmament than this proposal, which one official criticized as a "take it or leave it" offer. IRAN •The European Union and Japan issued a joint statement expressing their "readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait [of Hormuz]," but several officials involved were careful to emphasize that "appropriate efforts" did not include the military support Pres. Trump is asking allies to send. •The WSJ suggested that Trump may try to prove his claim that U.S. forces alone can reopen the strait by deploying around 2,200 Marines to seize several islands in the area and use them as a base to thwart Iranian attacks on commercial shipping. The Marine force is due to arrive from Japan next week. OIL •The U.S. Treasury Department is reportedly considering relaxing sanctions on around 140 million barrels of Iranian oil that's already loaded and at sea, in a bid to ease surging oil prices amidst wartime supply disruptions. •A similar relaxation of Russian oil sanctions last week added about 130 million barrels to the global marketplace and temporarily lowered crude prices, but prices spiked again after Israel escalated attacks on Iranian energy sites. •Critics blasted the idea of gifting two adversaries with windfall profits they can reinvest in the wars they're actively fighting against the U.S. (Iran) or its interests (Russia). •A regulatory consultant quoted in the Washington Post complained: "Two countries that we’ve spent years sanctioning are now the direct beneficiaries of a conflict the United States chose to start." CUBA •As the Trump administration mulls relaxing sanctions on Russian oil, the Kremlin is stress-testing another of its foreign policy priorities: its energy blockade on Cuba. •At least one state-owned (and U.S.-sanctioned) Russian tanker appears to be headed for Cuba to deliver the fuel-starved island 730,000 barrels of crude oil. [In a coy move, the Anatoly Kolodkin is broadcasting its destination as "Atlantis, USA," which is impossible because a) Atlantis doesn't exist, and b) sanctioned vessels are prohibited from docking in real U.S. ports. Tracking analysts say its course points to Cuba.] •The Treasury Department quickly added Cuba to the list of countries barred from buying newly-unsanctioned Russian oil (the others are North Korea, Iran, and Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine). But that's unlikely to stop Russia from testing the U.S. blockade and delivering Cuba's first oil shipment in three months. VENEZUELA •Venezuela's U.S.-backed interim president, Delcy Rodriguez, fired her long-serving defense minister, Gen. Vladimir Padrino López, and other top brass yesterday. •López and the other ousted officials had been loyal to Rodriguez's deposed predecessor, Nicolas Maduro, and likely stood in the way of the reforms the U.S. is pressuring Rodriguez to make. •However, the fact that Rodriguez appointed another long-loyal, U.S.-sanctioned hardliner - military counterintelligence chief Gustavo González - to replace López suggests she's not in a hurry to make meaningful democratic reforms. This reshuffle lets her appear to be taking action while merely consolidating power for herself.
Open source reportOff Leash update 28 Aug Venezuela •Venezuela's opposition called for a fourth round of mass demonstrations at 11 am Caracas time today to demand recognition of its victory in the election that happened exactly one month ago. •Pres. Maduro refuses to give up his claim that he won the vote - and also refuses to provide proof. Meanwhile, the opposition has offered online tallies confirming its candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez, won more than twice as many votes as Maduro (a figure aligned with exit polls). •Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado attended the first three major rallies of the past month, and will likely participate today too - despite the threat of being arrested and locked up alongside thousands of Venezuelans that Maduro's goons have detained for infractions as minor as questioning election results on social media. •Separately, Maduro introduced "profound" changes to his cabinet last night. He shuffled about half of his ministers, but in a way that won't meaningfully affect policy: he rewarded diehard loyalists like VP Delcy Rodriguez and PSUV party leader Diosdado Cabello with expanded roles, and rotated some other allies between key positions. Iran •Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, revived long-shot hopes for new nuclear talks with the U.S. by telling his civilian government - now led by reformist president Masoud Pezeshkian - that there's "no harm" in engaging the "enemy." •Analysts interpreted Khamenei's cautious remarks as hesitant approval for Pezeshkian to proceed with early talks - but under strict red lines drawn out of distrust for "the Great Satan" (as Khamenei and his predecessor dub the U.S. - the UK and Israel are both "Little Satans"). Israel and Gaza •Israeli security forces conducted a significant drone and ground "counter-terrorism operation" in the West Bank, killing at least nine. It was one of the biggest West Bank operations in recent years. •There are conflicting reports about the circumstances of Israel's hostage rescue this week. A military spokesman said "precise intelligence" led commandos to Farhan al Qadi's location in a deep underground tunnel, but anonymous Israeli officials told the media that soldiers unexpectedly stumbled upon al Qadi - weak and unguarded - in the midst of a separate tunnel operation. Ukraine •Pres. Zelensky said he was open to discussing an armistice - first with Pres. Biden and VP Harris, and then with Russia. •Zelensky indicated that Ukraine's recent incursion into Kursk was part of a possible peace plan he's angling for: Ukrainian forces captured both troops and territory that can be traded back to Russia - for a price. Yemen •The Sounion tanker Yemen's Houthis set ablaze last week may be leaking some of the 1 million barrels of oil it was carrying. The Houthis have continued to intimidate and target salvage operations, prohibiting rescuers from examining the situation. China •Earlier today, leaders of Pacific Island nations approved an Australia-backed plan to establish four regional police training centers and a multinational force to respond to regional crises. •China opposed the plan and advocated against it: Beijing wants island nations to rely on it - and not Australia or its Western allies - for security. DRC •In July, Gecamines - a DRC mining parastatal - objected to the proposed sale of Chemaf's copper-cobalt mines to China's Norin Mining on the grounds that the transaction would be a "flagrant violation of the clauses of the farm-out contract between Gecamines and Chemaf" - i.e., it would recalibrate the royalties Gecamines gets from the Etoile and Mutoshi projects for doing nothing. •DRC's ministers are now standing behind Gecamines: Mines Minister Kizito Pakabomba also said the deal breached Chemaf's agreements with Gecamines, and on Friday the full council of ministers recommended blocking the sale.
Open source report