Off Leash Intel · loading
48 direct mentions across 48 briefings, with 72 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
The proposed Israeli withdrawals are the first step under a U.S.-backed agreement signed on June 26. Aoun will seek international assistance with disarming Hezbollah.
Unverified development · updated through
The proposed Israeli withdrawals are the first step under a U.S.-backed agreement signed on June 26. Aoun will seek international assistance with disarming Hezbollah.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Hezbollah dossier
44 mapped developments across 6 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Southern Lebanon
An Israeli airstrike killed a commander of Hezbollah’s Radwan Brigade amid cross-border rocket fire attributed by Israel to Hezbollah.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 20 July 2026 COMING UP THIS WEEK •Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burhnam is set to become the next British prime minister today. •Tomorrow, Lebanon's Pres. Aoun will become the first Lebanese president in almost 20 years to visit the White House. •The Commonwealth Games start Thursday in Glasgow, and Comic-Con runs from Thursday through Sunday in San Diego, California. •On Friday, Pres. Trump will attend a rescheduled White House Press correspondents' dinner. Security will be tight to prevent another incident like the shooting that derailed the first dinner. •The 113th Tour de France ends Sunday on the Champs-Élysées in Paris. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,151/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $35,176/ton •Bitcoin: $64,220 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $13,526/ton •Ethereum: $1,863 •Gold: $4,021/toz •Lead: $1,883/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.86/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $82.74/barrel •Zinc: $3,526/ton IRAN •Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) said that two oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz via the southern route Iran has called "unsafe" and warned ships not to use were - passive voice intentional - "exploded and were forced to cease movement." The IRGC didn't explicitly say it fired on the imperiled tankers, but nobody else is striking ships along the southern route that the U.S. Navy is trying to secure. •At least three U.S. soldiers were killed in combat over the weekend: two died in an Iranian missile attack on a U.S. base in Jordan that left another serviceman missing, and one died during a botched operation to defuse a downed Iranian drone in northern Iraq. •U.S. SecState Rubio says the U.S. is still open to negotiating with Iran, and there are limited signs of ongoing diplomacy. But discreet peace talks are getting much less airtime than the nine straight nights of airstrikes the U.S. has carried out on Iranian infrastructure (and Iran's retaliatory attacks on regional allies of the U.S.). •The NYT, citing analysts, warned that infrastructure strikes and U.S. casualties represent an escalation that could prove hard to walk back from. YEMEN •Indeed, Iran reportedly called on its proxy in Yemen, the Houthis, to help ignite a regional conflict by closing the Bab al Mandeb maritime chokepoint if the U.S. strikes Iran's power grid. •The Houthis recently reopened a long-frozen conflict with Saudi Arabia, and seem ready to join their sponsor's side in a regional war. LEBANON •Lebanon's Pres. Aoun will use his meeting with Pres. Trump tomorrow to seek Trump's help pressuring Israel to make good on its commitment to withdraw from two "pilot zones" in southern Lebanon so the Lebanese Army can assume control of them. •That's the first step in a U.S.-backed agreement signed June 26 to end fighting between Israel and Hezbollah. Aoun will then want further U.S. (and international - but not Israeli) help to disarm Hezbollah. UKRAINE •Ukraine struck two warehouses belonging to the Russian online retailer Wildberries. Pres. Zelensky said the warehouses were being used to "supply sanctioned components for drone production and navigation equipment." •They're also symbolic targets for Ukraine's efforts to disrupt daily Russian life and bring the war home to Russians, whose president has sought to isolate them from the effects of the conflict. •Russia responded with one of the largest bombardments yet on Kyiv. The Russian barrage is likely to amplify Zelensky's calls for more Patriot missiles to defend against future such strikes. UK •Andy Burnham - who will become the UK's next prime minister today . •He faces tough challenges governing at the national level. He'll want to maintain good ties with the U.S. and Pres. Trump, make plans to revive Britain's sluggish economy, and ease a fractious debate about immigration.
Open source reportOff Leash update 1 July 2026 IRAN •Iran's speaker of parliament asserted that his government will not engage the U.S. in negotiations towards a final peace deal until all terms of the interim memorandum of understanding are met, and warned that Iran is "prepared for war" if its conditions are not met. •That's a problem, since one of the terms of the MoU - at least in Iran's reading of it - requires Israel to end its war against Hezbollah and withdraw from Lebanon - something that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu insists won't happen until Hezbollah "is eliminated." CHINA •The European Union ended its duty-free exemption for low-value imports and introduced a €3 ($3.4) levy on imported packages valued under €150. •The new fee is aimed at dirt-cheap Chinese importers like Temu and Shein, whose offers of absurdly low prices and free shipping have stolen market share from European rivals. The U.S. ended a similar exemption on duties for imports worth less than $800 last year. AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN •Afghanistan retaliated against Pakistan's airstrikes over the weekend with "air strikes" of its own on Pakistan's Balochistan province. •Pakistan said it shot down four primitive Afghan drones and reported no serious damage or casualties, but warned its neighbor that any new strikes "would receive a befitting response." •Russia urged the warring neighbors to "end the armed conflict and resolve disputed issues through political and diplomatic means" - which is perhaps something Russia has heard itself. SOUTH AFRICA •Thousands of South Africans marched in anti-migrant protests yesterday, but the demonstrations didn't get as unruly as some had feared. •That's likely partly because security forces were prepared for unrest and quelled flare-ups quickly. It also probably helped that an estimated 25,000 undocumented migrants heeded the agitators' calls to leave before yesterday's deadline. •Still, the anti-immigrant groups behind the protests are unlikely to be satisfied by the pace of repatriations and will likely continue to (largely unfairly) blame immigrants for South Africa's woes as long as unemployment remains high.
Open source reportOff Leash update 29 June 2026 COMING UP THIS WEEK •Leaders from the Latin American trading bloc Mercosur meet tomorrow in Paraguay. They're expected to formally announce an economic partnership with Japan. •Tomorrow is the "deadline" that anti-immigrant groups gave undocumented immigrants to leave South Africa. There's growing concern that the protests the agitators planned for tomorrow could turn violent. •Canada celebrates Canada Day on Wednesday. •Saturday marks the semiquincentennial (250th anniversary) of the adoption of the U.S. Declaration of Independence. •The Tour de France starts Saturday in Spain. The 113th edition of the cycling race features 21 stages covering 3,300 km (2,050 miles) over 23 days. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,180/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $35,022/ton •Bitcoin: $59,983 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $13,358/ton •Ethereum: $1,579 •Gold: $4,064/toz •Lead: $1,904/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.27/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $69.85/barrel •Zinc: $3,472/ton RUSSIA •Pres. Putin conceded that Ukraine's long-range drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure "are creating problems," adding, "that's obvious." •It was the first time Putin directly acknowledged that Ukrainian strikes have caused "a certain shortage" in Russia's fuel supplies, but he insisted the situation was "not critical." •The shortage appears to be critical enough to motivate Russia to consider importing gasoline from abroad, though: media reports suggest the Kremlin is already seeking fuel imports from Kazakhstan and India. AFGHANISTAN •Pakistan carried out another round of cross-border airstrikes targeting alleged Pakistani Taliban hideouts in Afghanistan. •Afghanistan's Taliban government, as usual, said the strikes killed only civilians and complained about Pakistan's violations of its sovereignty and airspace. •The Pakistani strikes were a retaliation for - among other incidents - a militant attack the day before on the Karachi regional headquarters of the paramilitary Pakistan Rangers that killed three soldiers and was claimed by Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, a breakaway faction of the Pakistani Taliban. •Pakistan accuses the Afghan Taliban of supporting and sheltering the Pakistani Taliban and other militant groups carrying out attacks inside Pakistan, but Islamabad's real issue is that the attacks reveal its inability to defend its territory. Kabul is a convenient scapegoat to blame its internal failures on. SERBIA •Serbia's Pres. Aleksandar Vucic gave in to 18 months of student-led protests against his government and said he would step down within weeks. •However, Vucic's resignation failed to quell the protests or satisfy his critics, who - with good reason - believe he's only superficially stepping down and intends to stay in power behind the scenes. Indeed, he gave no clear timeline for elections to replace him, and said he would "help" his ruling Serbian Progressive Party in the next election. •Analysts believe his plan is to resign from the mostly-ceremonial presidency only to seek to return to the more powerful role of prime minister, which he held from 2014 to 2017. VENEZUELA •Bloomberg reported that Venezuela's popular exiled opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado, is trying to return to her country as soon as possible, in light of the disastrous earthquakes that struck last week. •Analysts suggest Machado wants to be waiting in the wings to rally her many supporters behind a bid to challenge interim President Delcy Rodriguez if Rodriguez's government bungles its disaster response. •The U.S. - which installed Rodriguez in her post after capturing her predecessor, Nicolas Maduro - reportedly denied Machado's request for help returning to Venezuela this week, with one U.S. official calling it a "political stunt." The U.S. likely prefers she bide her time and let Rodriguez's government focus on relief efforts instead of political rivalry. IRAN •The U.S. and Iran traded retaliatory strikes over the weekend before agreeing to "stand down for now" - conveniently just in time for U.S. market open. (Iran didn't confirm the detente but appears likely to uphold it.) •The NYT wrote that the four-day flare-up was part of a "necessary gambit" for Iran to assert its control over the Strait of Hormuz so it can retain leverage over the U.S. in ongoing negotiations for a final peace deal. LEBANON •Israel and Lebanon agreed to a framework for a peace deal, but didn't share details. •U.S. SecState Rubio - who helped mediate the proto-agreement - described it as only the first step in "what will be a difficult journey." The main point of the accord is to secure Lebanon's help in containing Hezbollah, which was not part of the deal and swiftly condemned it.
Open source reportOff Leash update 25 June 2026 VENEZUELA •Two strong "doublet" earthquakes struck Venezuela yesterday, killing at least 32 and injuring more than 700. •USGS models suggest casualties will rise far higher and could well exceed 10,000 or more. The quake struck on a public holiday when many Venezuelans were at home, and many Venezuelan homes are shoddily built and prone to collapse. Even Caracas's main airport - which was not shoddily built - sustained such extensive damage that it was forced to close. •Interim President Delcy Rodriguez declared a state of emergency and called on medical workers to care for survivors. LEBANON •Israel said its forces have trapped dozens of Hezbollah militants inside an encircled tunnel complex under the Ali al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon. The militants are staying put inside: they're likely hoping that U.S. pressure will force Israel to stand down before they run out of food and water underground. •The NYT pointed out similarities to a standoff between Israeli forces and Hamas militants in Gaza last year, in which hundreds of Hamas fighters were trapped in tunnels under Israeli-controlled terrain as a ceasefire came into effect. Israel denied the militants' request for safe passage and demanded their unconditional surrender instead. Many surrendered or were killed. •Meanwhile, Israel and Lebanon held a fifth round of U.S.-mediated ambassador-level talks in Washington, DC. They reportedly discussed a U.S.-backed "pilot" in which Israel would cede some of the southern Lebanese territory it occupied during its war with Hezbollah to pre-vetted Lebanese army units to control. •The U.S. is backing the idea because it would help satisfy a condition of the U.S.-Iran MoU requiring Israel to withdraw from Lebanon. [However, the plan would let Israel keep a military presence in a border buffer zone, and Iran might consider that a violation of its conditions.] CHINA •China's newest and largest aircraft carrier, the Fujian, sailed through the Taiwan Strait on Tuesday as a warning to the self-governing island, which had just launched a five-day exercise to practice defense against a Chinese invasion. •The provocative transit drew rebuke not only from Taiwan, but also from France, Germany, and the UK, who united to issue a rare joint statement condemning Chinese activity around Taiwan. [The statement was referring to Chinese activity around Taiwan in general and didn't specifically mention the Fujian's transit the day before.] •Separately, LineShine, a Chinese supercomputer, was anointed the world's most powerful supercomputer in the biannual TOP500 ranking, displacing HP's El Capitan. LineShine also had the greatest power consumption of the 500 supercomputers in the ranking.
Open source reportOff Leash update 22 June 2026 COMING UP THIS WEEK •Tomorrow is the 10th anniversary of the UK's vote to leave the European Union. Economists estimate that Brexit lowered UK per capita GDP by at least 2.5% - and perhaps as much as 8.0% - without the drastic deregulation that free market Brexiteers promised would compensate for the output shortfall. Only 11% of Britons now say Brexit has made their lives better, while 43% say their lives are now worse for leaving the EU. •The World Economic Forum hosts its 17th Annual Meeting of the New Champions (aka "Summer Davos") in Dalian, China tomorrow through Thursday. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,397/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $34,397/ton •Bitcoin: $64,062 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $13,595/ton •Ethereum: $1,746 •Gold: $4,197/toz •Lead: $1,954/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.33/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $75.31/barrel •Zinc: $3,557/ton IRAN •After a brief posturing delay, U.S. and Iranian negotiators sat down in Switzerland for the first day of talks towards a lasting peace deal. •The discussions ran late into the night, and Qatari and Pakistani mediators said the two sides had made "encouraging progress" on persistent sore points like reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending Israel's war in Lebanon, but it seemed like that progress was limited to agreeing on how to talk about the touchy topics - not actually resolving any big differences. LEBANON •Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is trying to thread the needle between his hardline coalition partners - who want Israeli forces to keep striking Lebanon until the very last Hezbollah militant is dead - and Pres. Trump's pressure to end the war in Lebanon for the sake of a U.S.-Iran peace deal that Netanyahu despises. •At Trump's behest, Netanyahu agreed to restrict Israel's military to defensive actions in Lebanon, and the fragile detente appears to be holding - for now. No new strikes have been reported since the order. •That said, hawkish Israeli officials like Defense Minister Israel Katz are already stress-testing the truce by arguing that essentially all Israeli operations in Lebanon are - and always were - defensive in nature. UK •Embattled British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer finally gave in to rising calls for him to quit and tendered his resignation as the leader of the UK's Labour Party - and thus (in September) as PM. •Starmer's resignation kicks off the process to elect a new party leader, starting with a nomination period opening July 9. Labour's new leader will be named by the time parliament returns in September, at which point Starmer will hand the PM role over to his successor. •Former Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham has emerged as a leading contender to lead the Labour party, and his election to parliament last week makes him eligible to run. COLOMBIA •Conservative candidate Abelardo De La Espriella won Colombia's presidential election yesterday, with a razor-thin margin of just 1% over leftist continuity candidate Iván Cepeda. •De La Esprialla is a criminal defense lawyer with no previous political experience. That probably endeared him to Colombian voters feeling dissatisfied with incumbent leftist President Gustavo Petro's achievements.
Open source reportOff Leash update 9 June 2026 COMING UP THIS WEEK •Apple's annual Worldwide Developers' Conference (WWDC) kicked off yesterday. This is Tim Cook's last WWDC as CEO of Apple; investors will want to hear what the company is doing to catch up to its tech rivals' advancements in artificial intelligence. •Yesterday was World Oceans Day, which Mercator Ocean International commemorated by releasing its annual Starfish Barometer report on ocean health. This year's report found that sea levels rose by an average of 4.2 mm per year between 2012 and 2025 - almost double the rate of the previous decade. •China's Pres. Xi wraps up a two-day visit to North Korea today. The fact that Xi is visiting Kim Jong Un - and not the other way around - exemplifies the geopolitical clout Kim has achieved by forging stronger ties with Russia over Ukraine: Kim is no longer solely dependent on China, and Xi needs to treat Kim more like an equal than he did before Kim cozied up to Pres. Putin. •The FIFA Men's World Cup kicks off Thursday with a match between South Africa and co-host Mexico. Games will be played at various locations in Canada, Mexico, and the U.S., culminating in a July 19 final expected to take place at MetLife Stadium outside of New York City. •The NBA finals are also taking place this week. After last night's game, the New York Knicks are leading the San Antonio Spurs 2-1. The next games will be played tomorrow and Saturday, with additional games slated for next Tuesday and Friday if neither team has reached the four wins they need to take the series. It's the first time in 27 years that the Knicks have reached the finals. •The 94th edition of the 24 Hours of Le Mans endurance race takes place Saturday to Sunday in northwest France. •Pres. Trump turns 80 on Sunday and will (unofficially) mark the milestone by hosting UFC Freedom 250 on the White House lawn. The event will feature two co-main events: a lightweight title fight between Ilia Topuria and Justin Gaethje, and a heavyweight bout between Alex Pereira and Ciryl Gane for the interim title. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,604/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $35,538/ton •Bitcoin: $62,685 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $13,616/ton •Ethereum: $1,670 •Gold: $4,332/toz •Lead: $1,990/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.18/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $88.97/barrel •Zinc: $3,537/ton IRAN AND ISRAEL •Israel and Iran returned to war for about 15 hours, until Pres. Trump pulled Prime Minister Netanyahu back from the brink with another tense phone call. •Trump reportedly told Netanyahu that U.S. negotiators were within days of a breakthrough on nuclear talks with Iran, and would lose the opportunity to seal a lasting deal if Israel and Iran continued to exchange fire. •Iran readily agreed to pause strikes, too, but warned that it was ready to resume if Israel broke its side of the detente. (Except, apparently, in southern Lebanon, where Israeli strikes continued.) •The latest volley apparently started after Israel targeted Hezbollah sites in Lebanon. That Iran retaliated for strikes against its foreign proxies by firing directly at Israel - and ordering another of its proxies, the Houthis in Yemen, to join the fray and fire at Israel, too - shows how Iran sees its proxies' wars against Israel as an integrated part of its broader conflict. The extra dimensions that adds to truce talks will make it harder to reach a durable deal. ARMENIA •Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's pro-Western Civil Contract Party won re-election on Sunday...unless you ask the Russian media, who were instructed to portray the result - in which Civil Contract won 49.8% of the vote - as a loss for Pashinyan and highlight alleged voting irregularities. •Moscow resents Pashinyan's efforts to shift Armenia closer to Europe, and meddled in the election by banning key Armenian import categories to demonstrate the economic perks Armenia would lose if it swapped Russian suppliers for European ones. Pres. Putin pointedly warned Armenians last month that "the crisis in Ukraine began with efforts to move toward EU accession." CHINA •The U.S. Department of War added dozens of Chinese companies - including carmaker BYD and internet giants Baidu and Alibaba - to its list of firms linked to the Chinese military. The Pentagon considers listed firms to be national security threats and bars the U.S. military from doing business with them. •The companies emphatically denied having any military links, and the Chinese government criticized their blacklisting, calling it a pretext to protect American companies from strong Chinese rivals.
Open source reportOff Leash update 2 June 2026 LEBANON AND IRAN •After a call with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, Pres. Trump said Israel and Hezbollah had agreed to pause strikes and work towards a longer-term ceasefire. •Netanyahu portrayed it slightly differently: without admitting that he'd agreed to Pres. Trump's request to observe a ceasefire with Hezbollah, Netanyahu said that if Hezbollah resumes strikes, then Israel will, too. He added that the Israeli military "will continue to operate as planned in southern Lebanon" - i.e., it will only scale back its strikes around Beirut. •Several media reports suggested that Trump was motivated to intervene with Netanyahu by an ultimatum from Iran, which threatened to abandon indirect talks with the U.S. over ending the Iran war if Israel continued to strike its proxies in Lebanon. •Separately, the NYT reported that Israel didn't anticipate Hezbollah's use of first-person view drones to target its troops, and has had to re-think its strategy in southern Lebanon to account for the drone threat: "It is now a kind of deadlock in which Hezbollah suddenly looks more capable than it did when the war began and the soldiers of the Israel Defense Forces can look startlingly helpless." CHINA •According to a new report by Wirescreen, China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) repeatedly tried to buy Nvidia's cutting-edge AI chips from at least 2019 to 2025 - even after the U.S. restricted chip sales to foreign rivals like China. [Wirescreen wasn't able to confirm whether the PLA actually received or is using any Nvidia chips.] •Nvidia has long downplayed concerns about the PLA - or China's surveillance state - relying on its chips, and a spokesman reiterated that sentiment in reaction to the latest report: "China has more than enough domestic chips for all of its military applications, with millions to spare. Just like it would be nonsensical for the American military to use Chinese technology, it makes no sense for the Chinese military to depend on American technology.” UKRAINE •Russia launched one of its biggest recent assaults on Ukraine overnight, targeting several cities and killing at least 17. More are likely trapped under rubble. •The Kremlin had warned of an impending barrage for over a week before it finally launched the attack. Some analysts think the early warnings were intended to inflict a psychological toll on Ukrainians who have spent recent days on high alert, with many sleeping in subway stations or parking lots for safety. •The Economist explained why Russia has turned to targeting Ukrainian cities: "Struggling to advance on the front line, Russia has in recent months stepped up its attacks on civilian areas." RUSSIA •Bloomberg reported that senior Russian Finance Ministry officials have raised rising alarm over the unsustainable pace of defense spending, and proposed military cuts to freeze the yawning government fiscal deficit. •Defense Ministry officials vehemently oppose the idea of cutting war spending, and are even asking for more military funding. According to Bloomberg, some argue that so many Russian businesses rely on defense contracts that cuts would harm the economy. •Several officials said Pres. Putin has asked the Finance Ministry to find cuts in other parts of the budget before resorting to defense cuts, but sanctions and four years of war have already weighed heavily on government spending and there's not much fat left to trim.
Open source reportOff Leash update 29 May 2026 IRAN •The U.S. and Iran have reportedly reached a deal to extend the current temporary ceasefire for 60 days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz while they negotiate the thornier nuclear issues they still disagree on. •Pres. Trump has yet to sign off on the new framework, but wrote on Truth Social that he's close to making a "final determination" on it. Vice Pres. Vance said Trump still had issues with "a couple of language points" in the new draft that were holding up his decision. •In fact, it sounds like they're still far apart on several basic aspects of the proposed deal. For one, Trump said the deal calls for Iran to "immediately open" the Strait of Hormuz to unrestricted traffic, while Iranian state media insisted that "no such clause in the text of the agreement." •Another discrepancy is over money. Trump asserted that "No money will be exchanged, until further notice," while Iranian state media said "the most important part of the agreement” is “the immediate payment of $12 billion of Iran’s frozen assets." ISRAEL •Iran also insists that the temporary ceasefire currently in place covers the wars that Iranian proxies - Hezbollah and Hamas - are fighting with Israel. •Israel disagrees, but the fact that it has escalated its offensive strikes in recent weeks as Iran and the U.S. got closer to a deal suggests Prime Minister Netanyahu may think Pres. Trump may ask him to restrain his forces on other fronts to preserve a fragile truce with Iran. •Israel's escalation continued yesterday and today. The Israeli military struck targets in southern Beirut for the first time in weeks, and Netanyahu also ordered his military to seize at least 70% of Gaza - despite the fact that doing so would violate the October ceasefire agreement, in which Israel agreed to limit its occupation of the territory to just over half its area. RUSSIA •A drone - allegedly Russian - struck an apartment building in Galati, Romania, injuring two people. •European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen complained that the incursion "crossed yet another line," and Romania's Foreign Minister mused about invoking NATO's Article 4, which opens a discussion about threats to a NATO member's security. Article 4 is a step below Article 5, which requires all NATO members to come to the defense of any member under attack.
Open source reportOff Leash update 28 May 2026 IRAN •The U.S. military said it had downed four Iranian drones menacing the Strait of Hormuz and targeted a drone operating base yesterday, but said its strikes were "purely defensive and intended to maintain the ceasefire." Iran's military said it responded with strikes on a U.S. base. •The fresh exchange of fire still hasn't broken the temporary ceasefire - or either side's will to negotiate a more permanent truce. Citing a former UN mediator, the NYT noted: "Despite exchanging fire, Iran and the U.S. are still in a cease-fire because they both want to be. A resumption of full-scale war would be extremely costly for both...And so the cease-fire violations should be seen as part of the negotiation process, not a will to escalate." •[The same former mediator also observed that Israel's tenuous ceasefires in Lebanon and Gaza - which are also regularly violated - are very different, in that Israel didn't particularly want either truce and won't mind if both break down.] •Separately, Iran's state media released a new, 14-point peace proposal that the White House quickly rejected as a "complete fabrication." LEBANON •Israel's military continued to ramp up its war against Hezbollah, despite the extended ceasefire it's observing with Lebanon. The Israeli army ordered much of southern Lebanon to evacuate and pounded southern Lebanon's largest city, Tyre, with airstrikes targeting Hezbollah infrastructure. UKRAINE •Ukraine's Parliament (Verkhovna Rada) ratified the EU's €90 billion ($105 billion) loan today. Roughly two-thirds of the funds will go towards defense spending, with the remainder earmarked for broader economic support. Ukraine only needs to repay the loan if Russia pays it reparations after the war. •Around €2.5 billion ($2.8 billion) of the new loan will fund the deal Sweden just announced to sell Ukraine up to 20 Saab JAS 39 Gripen E/F fighter jets. Sweden will also transfer 16 used jets of the previous model, Gripen C/D, to Ukraine. CHINA •Dong Guangping - a Chinese ex-policeman whose criticism of his country's Communist regime landed him in jail twice - was found drifting off the west coast of South Korea in a small rubber boat. •This is at least the fourth time Dong has escaped China: he previously fled to Thailand, Vietnam, and Taiwan; but all three countries complied with China's orders to repatriate him. •Now South Korean authorities have detained him on suspicion of violating immigration laws, and Beijing will surely ask Seoul to send him back. It's unclear whether South Korea will agree. EBOLA •Uganda closed its border with DRC after confirming seven Ebola cases from the latest outbreak - which originated in DRC's Ituri province - in Kampala. •The border is around 545 miles (880 km) long and poorly policed, so closing its six official border posts will do little to contain the much heavier flow of traffic that crosses it on informal footpaths and landing sites.
Open source reportOff Leash update 28 May 2026 IRAN •The U.S. military said it had downed four Iranian drones menacing the Strait of Hormuz and targeted a drone operating base yesterday, but said its strikes were "purely defensive and intended to maintain the ceasefire." Iran's military said it responded with strikes on a U.S. base. •The fresh exchange of fire still hasn't broken the temporary ceasefire - or either side's will to negotiate a more permanent truce. Citing a former UN mediator, the NYT noted: "Despite exchanging fire, Iran and the U.S. are still in a cease-fire because they both want to be. A resumption of full-scale war would be extremely costly for both...And so the cease-fire violations should be seen as part of the negotiation process, not a will to escalate." •[The same former mediator also observed that Israel's tenuous ceasefires in Lebanon and Gaza - which are also regularly violated - are very different, in that Israel didn't particularly want either truce and won't mind if both break down.] •Separately, Iran's state media released a new, 14-point peace proposal that the White House quickly rejected as a "complete fabrication." LEBANON •Israel's military continued to ramp up its war against Hezbollah, despite the extended ceasefire it's observing with Lebanon. The Israeli army ordered much of southern Lebanon to evacuate and pounded southern Lebanon's largest city, Tyre, with airstrikes targeting Hezbollah infrastructure. UKRAINE •Ukraine's Parliament (Verkhovna Rada) ratified the EU's €90 billion ($105 billion) loan today. Roughly two-thirds of the funds will go towards defense spending, with the remainder earmarked for broader economic support. Ukraine only needs to repay the loan if Russia pays it reparations after the war. •Around €2.5 billion ($2.8 billion) of the new loan will fund the deal Sweden just announced to sell Ukraine up to 20 Saab JAS 39 Gripen E/F fighter jets. Sweden will also transfer 16 used jets of the previous model, Gripen C/D, to Ukraine. CHINA •Dong Guangping - a Chinese ex-policeman whose criticism of his country's Communist regime landed him in jail twice - was found drifting off the west coast of South Korea in a small rubber boat. •This is at least the fourth time Dong has escaped China: he previously fled to Thailand, Vietnam, and Taiwan; but all three countries complied with China's orders to repatriate him. •Now South Korean authorities have detained him on suspicion of violating immigration laws, and Beijing will surely ask Seoul to send him back. It's unclear whether South Korea will agree. EBOLA •Uganda closed its border with DRC after confirming seven Ebola cases from the latest outbreak - which originated in DRC's Ituri province - in Kampala. •The border is around 545 miles (880 km) long and poorly policed, so closing its six official border posts will do little to contain the much heavier flow of traffic that crosses it on informal footpaths and landing sites.
Open source reportOff Leash update 26 May 2026 COMING UP THIS WEEK •Yesterday, the U.S. celebrated Memorial Day, which commemorates fallen soldiers (as opposed to Veterans' Day, which celebrates all who have served). •Tomorrow is Eid al Adha, which marks the end of the hajj pilgrimage to Mecca. Despite the war and Iran's strikes on regional rivals like Saudi Arabia, around 1.7 million Muslims took part in this year's pilgrimage. •U.S. SecState Rubio will meet with his counterparts from the other three Quad countries - Australia, India, and Japan - for talks in Delhi today. One of their chief concerns will be finding ways to counter China's growing geopolitical and economic heft. •Paris Saint-Germain plays Arsenal in the UEFA Champions League final in Budapest on Saturday. •Colombia votes for president on Sunday. Far-left candidate Iván Cepeda is likely to win the most votes - but not a majority - in Sunday's first round, which will pit him against either far-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella or center-right rival Paloma Valencia in a run-off on June 21. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,650/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $35,092/ton •Bitcoin: $77,169 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $13,668/ton •Ethereum: $2,120 •Gold: $4,511/toz •Lead: $2,012/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.92/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $92.46/barrel •Zinc: $3,543/ton IRAN •The U.S. struck several missile sites and mine-laying boats in southern Iran in what CENTCOM called an act of self-defense "to protect our troops from threats posed by Iranian forces." •Despite the fresh U.S. strikes, the temporary ceasefire is still largely holding up as negotiators continue to make slow progress towards a permanent peace deal during mediated talks in Doha. •Iran's foreign ministry confirmed that a "framework" for a truce had been agreed, but it's unlikely to lead to a conclusive, war-ending agreement. As The Economist quipped: "At best...it will be a deal to keep talking about a final deal." ISRAEL •In a Truth Social post, Pres. Trump demanded that several more Middle Eastern countries - namely, Egypt, Jordan, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Qatar - sign onto the Abraham Accords as part of a future deal to end the Iran war. •Critics complained that Trump's new demand adds further complexity to deliberations that are already dauntingly complicated. Plus, several of the countries in question have steadfastly refused to cave to past U.S. pressure to join the pact and are unlikely to suddenly reconsider now. Pakistan and Saudi, in particular, have long maintained that they would only consider joining the Accords and normalizing relations with Israel after Palestine has a clear path to statehood. LEBANON •Three senior Iranian officials told the NYT that the latest Iran ceasefire proposal would also end Israel's war on Hezbollah in Lebanon. •However, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu struck a very different tone in a video statement announcing an escalation in Israel's war against Hezbollah: "We are not removing our foot from the pedal. On the contrary, I said to press on the pedal even more." SUDAN •Human Rights Watch accused the UAE of funding and training Colombian mercenaries fighting alongside the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan's civil war. •It's been well documented that Colombian fighters are backing the RSF, but this is the first compelling claim that the UAE hosted Colombians for training at an Emirati military base before deploying them to Sudan. •The UAE denied the latest accusations - just as it has denied backing the RSF in the first place. GUINEA •Guinea - which is by far the world's largest bauxite producer - announced plans to introduce bauxite export controls next month. •The new curbs will disproportionately affect China, which receives almost three-quarters of Guinea's exported bauxite and processes it into alumina and aluminum.
Open source reportOff Leash update 22 May 2026 IRAN •Pres. Trump said he delayed a "very major attack" against Iran that was planned for Tuesday to allow ongoing "serious negotiations" to play out, after the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE asked him for more time to try to secure a deal that addresses Iran's nuclear program. •It's not clear how serious the ongoing negotiations truly are. Most media reports suggest that Iran's latest counterproposal was essentially identical to the previous one, which Trump rejected as "garbage" after reading the first page. Iranian state media, though, said the current proposal had "narrowed the gaps." •SecState Rubio expressed very cautious optimism about "slight progress" towards a ceasefire deal with Iran, but reports that Iran and Oman are in talks about creating a tolling system for the Strait of Hormuz suggest otherwise. Rubio drew a red line with a warning that a tolling system "would make a diplomatic deal unfeasible." ISRAEL •A new Washington Post report found that the U.S. launched more interceptors (300) defending Israel against incoming attacks than Israel launched in its own defense (190). •The U.S. focused its efforts on intercepting high-altitude ballistic missiles coming from Iran, consuming over 200 Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors - or around half its pre-war THAAD arsenal - plus around 100 Standard Missile-3 and Standard Missile-6 interceptors. •Meanwhile, Israel focused on intercepting lower-altitude incoming fire from Iranian proxies - the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon - using nearly 100 Arrow 3 missiles and around 90 David Sling interceptors. •Kelly Greico - an analyst at the Stimson Center - pointed out that interceptors used for Israel's defense reduce the arsenal available for defending against other adversaries: "That bill risks coming due in theaters that have nothing to do with Iran." EBOLA •The World Health Organization (WHO) has now documented 750 suspected cases of Ebola with 177 suspected Ebola deaths in the latest outbreak, which the WHO only confirmed last weekend and has since upgraded to a "very high" risk of spread within DRC. •Public health experts believe the new Ebola outbreak confirmed in DRC and Uganda over the weekend has been raging for weeks, and will be much harder to contain because of the delay in reporting and confirming it. •This outbreak originated in DRC's insurgency-ridden Ituri province, which has been run by a military government under a "state of siege" since 2021. Public services - including health - often take a backseat to security matters, which could explain why health officials didn't sound the alarm when they first started to see patients with possible Ebola symptoms. •Testing shortfalls also delayed Ituri's outbreak response. The region's Ebola test kits only test for the most common Ebola species, Zaire, and returned negative results. It was only when regional health officials sent tissue samples to Kinshasa - apparently weeks after the first symptoms appeared - that the Bundibugyo species of Ebola was identified. CHINA •Pres. Trump told reporters he planned to speak with Taiwan's Pres. Lai Ching-te before deciding to sell arms to Taiwan. It would be the first time since 1979 that a sitting U.S. president or president-elect has spoken with the leader of Taiwan - though there have been official communications at less senior levels since then. •Beijing blamed Taiwan for the "petty action" of enticing Trump to break from precedent and engage at the highest level, but there's a good chance that Trump floated the idea with Xi Jinping when they met last week: Trump first mentioned he might reach out to Lai immediately upon returning from his summit with Xi.
Open source reportOff Leash update 6 May UKRAINE •Ukraine and Russia both agreed to a ceasefire, but - in an indication of how much they mistrust each other - they agreed to separate ceasefires. •Ukraine's open-ended ceasefire started late yesterday and will last as long as Russia reciprocates, and Russia's - which was announced along with a threat of a "massive missile strike" if Ukraine doesn't comply - will start Friday. •Kyiv has already accused Russia of violating its ceasefire on the front lines, but hasn't torn up the truce yet. IRAN •Pres. Trump announced he was pausing "Project Freedom" - his plan to escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz - after just one day and three escorted transits, citing "great progress" that the U.S. and Iran are making towards a deal. •More likely, Project Freedom was making less progress than Trump had hoped, and Pakistani mediators convinced him it was counterproductive. Instead of freeing up shipping traffic in the Strait, the challenge of military escorts incited Iranian retaliation via small boat attacks. Only two or three escorted boats transited the Strait on Monday, and around 1,600 more remain trapped to the west. •Iran also seemed eager to de-escalate in a way that allows it to save face and claim victory. Its Speaker of Parliament claimed that a "new equation of the Strait of Hormuz is being stabilized." CHINA •Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, visited Beijing for talks with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi. It was their first in-person meeting - and Araghchi's first visit to China - since the war began, but Araghchi and Wang have spoken by phone three times since Feb. 28. •That's probably more than Araghchi has spoken with officials from any other country except those directly mediating between the U.S. and Iran. While it wasn't directly involved in mediating the current temporary ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, Beijing reportedly helped nudge Tehran to accept it. •The timing of Araghchi's visit - just one week before Pres. Xi hosts Pres. Trump - suggests Iran may hope Xi can again intercede as an unofficial mediator. TAIWAN •Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te defied Beijing's bullying and paid a visit to Taiwan's sole remaining ally in Africa, Eswatini (fka Swaziland). •Beijing had sought to block Lai's trip by ordering other African countries to deny his aircraft use of their airspace, but Lai bypassed the prohibition by flying in on an Eswatini government aircraft instead of his own. Beijing likened the clever workaround to "a rat scurrying across the street." ROMANIA •Romania's pro-European coalition government fell in an overwhelming no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan, who came to power less than a year ago as part of a motley coalition that has since broken down over Bolojan's proposed austerity measures. •President Nicusor Dan appealed for calm and promised a new, pro-Western government "within a reasonable time," while ruling out early elections. SYRIA •Syria said its security forces foiled a major terrorist attack that Lebanese Hezbollah militants were planning to carry out in coordinated operations targeting at least five different Syrian governates. •Hezbollah supported the deposed Assad regime's losing side in Syria's civil war, and has continued to agitate against the new government and its ex-rebel leaders in revenge for their efforts to cut off the smuggling routes Iran uses to supply its Lebanese proxy.
Open source reportOff Leash update May 4th COMING UP THIS WEEK •Today is Star Wars Day: May the 4th be with you. In other news related to fabulous costumes, tonight is also the Met Gala. •Friday is Victory in Europe (VE) Day, marking the 81st anniversary of the formal end of WWII in Europe. •Russia celebrates Victory Day on Saturday, May 9. That traditionally involves a big parade showing off the latest military kit alongside marching military academy cadets, but the Kremlin said the hardware display would be toned down this year because of the "operational situation" in Ukraine. •Saturday is also the start of the Venice Biennale art festival. The organizers controversially re-welcomed Russia's participation in this year's event, despite its ongoing war in Ukraine that saw it banned from the 2024 Biennale. •The U.S. celebrates Mother's Day on Sunday. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,522/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $35,485/ton •Bitcoin: $79,708 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $12,997/ton •Ethereum: $2,360 •Gold: $4,583/toz •Lead: $1,949/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.84/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $103.01/barrel •Zinc: $3,345/ton IRAN •Iran sent the U.S. a new, 14-point proposal for ending the war. Pres. Trump said he would "soon be reviewing the plan that Iran has just sent to us, but can’t imagine that it would be acceptable." However, Trump added that the ongoing back and forth "could lead to something very positive for all." •Separately, Trump announced a new initiative - dubbed Project Freedom - in which U.S. ships will guide vessels that are cut off by Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz through the Strait to open seas, starting today. The Economist noted that the plan is "essentially a challenge to Iran: a bet that it would not want to take the risk of firing the first shots — or laying mines — in a challenge to the United States." •The U.S. Treasury also threatened vessels that pay tolls to Iran for safe passage through the Strait with sanctions violations. The U.S. has historically focused its limited sanctions-enforcement resources on punishing the entities closest to sanctions targets - as opposed to distant "counterparties" like shipping companies being extorted by sanctions targets - but that could change as Treasury seeks to exert "maximum pressure" on Iran. UKRAINE •Ukraine launched another wave of drone attacks deep inside Russia, targeting its Primorsk oil terminal port (which is over 620 miles or 1,000 km from Ukraine) and other energy infrastructure. •That doesn't mean the temporary ceasefire that Presidents Trump and Putin proposed after their meeting last week is off the table. Ukraine hasn't publicly accepted or rejected the offer yet, and could be firing some parting shots to improve its position ahead of possible negotiations during the detente. GERMANY •German Chancellor Friedrich Merz started a tiff with Pres. Trump when he said the U.S. is being "humiliated" in Iran. •Trump hit back by threatening to raise tariffs on European Union auto imports to the U.S. from 15% to 25% - a move that would disproportionately affect Germany, given its automaking strength - and to pull 5,000 U.S. troops out of Germany. •The U.S. has over 36,000 active-duty troops in Germany - more than in any other country outside of the U.S. except Japan - so withdrawing 5,000 of them isn't as drastic as it sounds. It merely brings U.S. force strength in Europe back to where it was before the Ukraine war. CUBA •Citing Cuba's alleged ties to Iran and Hezbollah, the U.S. slapped broad new sanctions on Cuban entities and officials involved in the "energy, defense and related materiel, metals and mining, financial services, or security sector of the Cuban economy, or any other sector of the Cuban economy." •Hours after the new sanctions were announced on Friday, Pres. Trump told an audience in Florida that the U.S. will be "taking over" Cuba "on the way back from Iran," claiming that Cuba's government will see the USS Lincoln aircraft carrier "stop about 100 yards offshore, and they'll say, 'Thank you very much. We give up'." •Cuba - which has long relied on any help it can get, including from unsavory partners - called the new sanctions and thinly-veiled threats "illegal" and "coercive." In a way, they are probably intended to coerce Havana into ending its decades-long practice of offering a "permissive environment" for governments hostile to the U.S. to run intelligence and military operations from a base only 90 miles (145 km) from Florida. •Separately, a new report from the left-leaning Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) assessed that U.S. sanctions on Cuba - which were imposed by Trump in his first term but continued through Pres. Biden's term - were "likely the primary cause" of a 148% increase in infant mortality from 2018 to 2025.
Open source reportOff Leash update 28 April IRAN •Iran proposed a new plan to the U.S. via regional mediators. This one dodges the intractable nuclear questions that dogged prior proposals by postponing nuclear negotiations, and focuses instead on ending both blockades of the Strait of Hormuz. •Pres. Trump is reportedly not satisfied with Iran's proposal, which would be hard for him to sell as a win. It fails to resolve two key objectives of his war - barring Iran from future nuclear enrichment and doing away with its stockpile of already-enriched uranium - and only fixes Hormuz shipping, which wasn't broken before the war. RUSSIA •Iran's busy Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, continued his diplomatic tour with a visit to Moscow to discuss the ongoing war with Pres. Putin. •Putin has given Iran limited intelligence and military support, but he doesn't want to upset Israel, Gulf states, or Pres. Trump by overtly siding with Iran. •To that end, he offered Araghchi some nice compliments about how "courageously and heroically the people of Iran are fighting for their independence and for their sovereignty," but reportedly brushed off Araghchi's request to intercede with Pres. Trump to accept the plan Iran proposed for ending blockades. LEBANON •Israel and Hezbollah continue to trade near-daily strikes, though fighting has been largely constrained to the south until yesterday, when Israel struck targets in Hezbollah's stronghold in the eastern Bekaa Valley. •Hezbollah's leader, Naim Qassem, issued a defiant written statement declaring that the militant group will not "relinquish its weapons or its defenses" and demanding that the Lebanese government stop negotiating with Israel on Hezbollah's behalf. •Israel's Defense Minister, Israel Katz, angrily accused Qassem of "playing with fire…[that] will burn Hezbollah and all of Lebanon" and criticized the Lebanese government for failing to rein in or disarm the militants, who vastly outmuscle the weak Lebanese military. MALI •As the dust settles on the weekend's coordinated attacks by al Qaeda-linked Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Tuareg-led Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), it's becoming apparent that the vast assault shook Mali's government deeply. •Defense chief Gen. Sadio Camara wasn't the only high-ranking casualty. Two other senior junta figures - third-in-command Gen. Modibo Koné and military chief of staff Oumar Diarra - were badly injured and taken to heavily-guarded hospitals, where Koné reportedly died of his wounds. •Junta leader / President Assimi Goita was rushed to a secure location as the attacks began, and hasn't been heard from since. His silence is adding to concerns that his government may not survive for long. •JNIM and the FLA aren't necessarily trying to topple Goita's government and probably don't want to control Mali. Rather, they likely prefer to force concessions from the wounded regime: JNIM wants Goita to call off counterinsurgency operations against it, and the FLA seeks more autonomy - and perhaps eventually independence - for northern Tuaregs. •Emerging reports suggest that JNIM now controls Kidal, and JNIM / FLA fighters are entrenched around the cities of Mopti, Sevaré, and Gao awaiting orders that will depend on how the government responds to their demands. DRC •DRC's General Inspectorate of Mines (IGM) announced a new paramilitary "mining guard" to secure critical mineral mining sites and transport routes. •The IGM aims to eventually recruit 20,000 guards for a six-month training program before gradually deploying them to 22 mining provinces, starting with the first 2,500 to 3,000 that will deploy to Katanga in December. •Investment partnerships with the U.S. and UAE will help fund the $100 million guard program, which is essentially a downpayment on fostering a security environment that American and Emirati firms can trust to protect their future investments in DRC's mineral sector. PAKISTAN AND AFGHANISTAN •Unsurprisingly, the fragile, China-mediated truce that Pakistan and Afghanistan agreed to last month is breaking down. •Afghanistan's Taliban government accused Pakistan of targeting a university in Kunar with mortar and rocket strikes that killed seven and wounded 85. •Pakistan's military denied the accusation that it targeted a university as "a blatant lie" and said its targeting is always "precise and intelligence-based." It did not deny the strike or say what its real target was.
Open source reportOff Leash update 24 April IRAN •The NYT published an excellent report describing how the war has shifted power in Iran from the powerful late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to a group of Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) generals who are now calling the shots. •Pres. Trump has called Iran's new leaders "much more reasonable" than the clerics who imposed the previous Supreme Leader's dictates, and in some ways they are. They're more focused on economic interests than theocratic ones, which makes them more open to the kind of deal Trump can agree to. But their grasp of geo-economic power is also what emboldens them to wield it - for example, by choking off the Strait of Hormuz. •It was reportedly the Guards who decided not to attend a second round of peace talks in Islamabad. Their voices prevailed over those of Iran's President, Masoud Pezeshkian, and Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, who both favored joining talks. Pezeshkian and Araghchi have been seemingly sidelined as the Guards assumed control of the war. •Separately, Pres. Trump has reportedly asked FIFA - which awarded him its inaugural Peace Prize last year - to disqualify Iran from this summer's World Cup and replace it with Italy, which failed to qualify for the tournament. Italy's sports minister said the pity invite would be "inappropriate," adding: "Qualification is on the pitch." Italian fans largely agree. LEBANON •Israel and Lebanon agreed to extend their 10-day truce by a further three weeks. •Like the initial deal, this agreement was brokered and announced by Pres. Trump, who again cajoled reluctant Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into accepting it. •Also as in the first deal, Lebanon - which is not fighting Israel - signed a truce with Israel on behalf of Hezbollah, and can do little to ensure that Hezbollah respects a truce it didn't agree to. [It bears mention that - except for some skirmishes in the south - Hezbollah has mostly respected the ceasefire so far. It has used the reprieve as an opportunity to bury its dead.] VENEZUELA •Venezuela's Acting President, Delcy Rodriguez, announced an end to the amnesty law her government enacted in February under pressure from the U.S. •Rodriguez said 8,616 people had been freed from Venezuelan prisons in the three months the measure was in effect, but rights groups say the true figure was closer to 700. •In addition, most of the political prisoners the U.S. wanted released or exonerated were expressly excluded from the amnesty, and 473 of them are still in prison or have been reincarcerated. •Rodriguez's government still wants to add opposition leader Maria Corina Machado - who faces treason charges that have deterred her return to Venezuela - to that count. •Rodriguez obliquely noted that "there are other avenues through which [the excluded cases] can be addressed," but declined to add detail and doesn't seem serious about addressing them. •Rodriguez especially won't want to facilitate Machado's return to Venezuela, where Machado remains popular and a threat to Rodriguez's unelected regime.
Open source reportOff Leash update 22 April IRAN •Pres. Trump announced an extension to the temporary ceasefire with Iran that was set to expire last night. The truce will now remain in effect until Iran's "proposal is submitted, and discussions are concluded, one way or the other." •Trump said the U.S. military blockade of Iranian ports will remain in place, which presents a challenge to forward progress on a lasting peace deal. Iran considers the U.S. blockade a violation of the temporary ceasefire and refused to submit its proposal or engage in a second round of discussions over the matter. •The latest U.S. proposal that the U.S. wants Iran to respond to reportedly contains the same sticking points on nuclear issues as before, making it unlikely that Iran will suddenly agree to accept the U.S. position. JAPAN •Japan relaxed post-World War II restrictions on exporting lethal weapons in a bid to support allies embroiled in wars in the Middle East and Ukraine. Exports will still be restricted to 17 countries with which Japan has defense agreements. •Growing numbers of Japanese - especially the young - oppose the move to erode their country's postwar pacifism. Tens of thousands turned out to protest in front of the Diet yesterday, shouting chants like "stop sucking up to America" and holding signs with anti-war slogans like "Cats, not bombs." CHINA •Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te cancelled a planned trip to Eswatini (fka Swaziland) this week after China pressured three other African countries - the Seychelles, Mauritius, and Madagascar - revoked overflight permission for his presidential aircraft. •Lai blamed China, saying that "the actual reason [for the revocation of flight permits] was intense pressure exerted by Chinese authorities, including economic coercion." Taiwanese officials say Beijing threatened to impose economic sanctions on and cancel much-needed debt relief for the Seychelles, Mauritius, and Madagascar unless they revoked the flight permits. •Eswatini is one of only 12 countries that still recognize Taiwan's independence from China, and the only African country still doing so. Many other nations - like the three that cancelled Lai's flight permits - have been enticed by Belt and Road perks or coerced by economic threats into siding with Beijing. UKRAINE •Ukraine's Pres. Zelensky said repairs to the Druzhba pipeline have been completed and the pipeline can resume carrying Russian oil to Europe. •Zelensky hopes that reopening the pipeline can unlock a €90 billion ($106 billion) European Union (EU) loan to Ukraine that Hungary and Slovakia had been blocking over pipeline repair delays. LEBANON •Israel accused Hezbollah of violating the temporary ceasefire that Israel and Lebanon agreed to by firing rockets at Israeli positions in south Lebanon. •Hezbollah wasn't a party to the 10-day truce but until this incident had mostly respected Lebanon's pleas to uphold it.
Open source reportOff Leash update 16 April IRAN •The U.S. and Iran are reportedly discussing an extension to the two-week temporary ceasefire that currently expires next Wednesday (April 22) to allow more time to negotiate a more permanent truce. •Pres. Trump downplayed reports of a possible extension and said it would be "preferable" to finalize a permanent truce instead of prolonging a temporary one. Iranian state media reported that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei also opposes an extension. However, both leaders likely prefer an extension over a return to war. LEBANON •Pres. Trump said in a Truth Social post that the leaders of Israel and Lebanon will speak today. •He didn't explicitly say which leaders would speak, but it probably won't be the heads of state: it's hard to imagine Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu agreeing to talk to Lebanese President Aoun after derisively rejecting Aoun's outreach for months. •Separately, the Israeli military said that its April 8 strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon were even more devastating to the militant group's command structure and operational capabilities than its September 2024 pager attack, "but both targeted hundreds of terrorists and within 60 seconds." •The April 8 operation was based on extensive intelligence that tracked 250 Hezbollah operatives - including a large share of the group's mid-level commanders - and simultaneously targeted them in many different locations throughout Lebanon. •Israeli officials assess that Hezbollah's command is still reeling from the April 8 blow, though its rocket fire hasn't abated yet. DRC •DRC's market regulator, ARECOMS, formally established a state strategic cobalt reserve in a bid to expand its control over cobalt supply chains and capture a greater share of the value of its mineral wealth. •The new decree forces cobalt miners operating in DRC - including China's CMOC, Huayou, and Sicomines as well as Glencore and the Eurasian Resources Group - to contribute 10% of their cobalt export volume to the reserve. •It also forces them to max out their quarterly export quotas because they will now forfeit any cobalt they mined but failed to export before each quarterly deadline, with the excess also going into the state reserve. •DRC's cobalt miners will resent the state's new value capture, but there's not much they can do about it: 70% of global cobalt production comes from DRC and the other 30% is generally costlier to extract, so they're stuck working with Kinshasa and its escalating demands. VENEZUELA •Spain's Repsol reached an agreement with Venezuela and its state oil company, PDVSA, to take back operational control of its operations at the Petroquiriquire field, which currently produces about 45,000 barrels per day. •Repsol thinks - probably correctly - that it can operate Petroquiriquire better than PDVSA has: in the new agreement, Repsol committed to tripling the field's production within three years.
Open source reportOff Leash update 9 April IRAN •American and Iranian delegations will meet in Islamabad starting tomorrow to try to negotiate a more permanent peace than the current, 14-day ceasefire that both sides have already accused the other of violating. •Ahead of that summit, Iran circulated its draft 10-point counterproposal, which the White House claimed was different from the plan it had called "a workable basis on which to negotiate." •The public draft Iran circulated yesterday contained several points that the U.S. delegation won't be able to agree to and preemptively criticized as "fundamentally unserious." For example, it explicitly allows Iran to enrich uranium and control transit through the Strait of Hormuz, and demands a U.S. military withdrawal from the entire Gulf region and reparations for war damages. •The White House is working on its own proposal that's sure to be starkly different from Iran's. It's hard to imagine the two sides reaching any middle ground from such distant starting positions. •It doesn't seem like the two sides even agree about the terms of the current, 14-day ceasefire. One of its key tenets - at least as Pres. Trump pitched it - was reopening the Strait of Hormuz for shipping, but Iran still controls traffic through the Strait and is even strengthening its tolling system with a new plan to charge transiting ships $1 per barrel of oil aboard, payable in Bitcoin (so it can't be traced or confiscated). •Gulf countries also reported continued incursions by Iranian missiles and drones after the ceasefire was announced. LEBANON •Another reason the current, 14-day U.S.-Iran ceasefire is wobbling is because of a disagreement over whether it extends to Lebanon. Iran and Pakistan say it does; the U.S. and Israel say it does not. •Israel forced the issue by carrying out its deadliest strikes yet on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon yesterday, killing at least 254 in what Lebanon's Pres. Aoun called a "massacre." •U.S. Vice President JD Vance - who will lead the U.S. delegation in truce talks with Islamabad this weekend - said yesterday that Israel offered to restrain its (future) strikes on Lebanon for the sake of ongoing peace talks. •That may be too little, too late for Iran, whose deputy foreign minister called Israel's strikes on Lebanon a "grave violation" of the temporary ceasefire. VENEZUELA •Venezuela's interim president, Delcy Rodriguez, announced a "responsible increase" in the public sector minimum wage starting next month - as opposed to the highly irresponsible past wage hikes that triggered inflation crises. •The country's minimum wage has been stuck at an unliveable 130 bolivares - about $0.28 at official rates - per month since March 2022, forcing many workers to sustain themselves from bonuses or side hustles. •Rodriguez didn't give a figure for the new minimum wage, but she said oil and mining revenues would pay for it. SAHEL •Two leading jihadist groups in the Sahel - Al Qaeda-linked Jama'at Nusrat al Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) and Islamic State in the Sahel Province (ISSP) - took their long-running rivalry to Niger for the first time, with a series of skirmishes in Tillaberi, western Niger. •JNIM and ISSP have been fighting each other in the Sahel since at least 2019, but their previous clashes have been restricted to Mali and Burkina Faso. •Analysts say the spillover into Niger is a sign that JNIM sees an opportunity to follow ISSP's lead in exploiting security gaps in Niger and northern Nigeria, while ISSP resents the competition and is willing to fight to retain exclusive control. SOCIAL MEDIA •Greece became the third country - after Australia and Spain - to announce plans to ban minors from social media. Several other countries - including Denmark, France, Indonesia, and Malaysia - are considering similar bans. •Proponents of the bans believe social media usage harms children and a ban will prevent harm, but critics say bans will only push online minors to darker and less-regulated parts of the internet.
Open source reportOff Leash update 8 April IRAN •Just 90 minutes before Pres. Trump's deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or see its "whole civilization" destroyed, Trump announced that Iran had agreed to a two-week ceasefire. Iranian officials and Pakistani mediators soon confirmed the truce. •Iran pledged to reopen the Strait and both sides agreed to join talks towards a more lasting peace, which will start in Islamabad on Friday. •Axios reported that Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, personally backed and blessed the deal. That suggests Khamenei - who holds his cards close but is thought to be a hardliner - has a pragmatic side too. •Investors believe the temporary truce will hold and markets rallied on the news of a deal. Shipping companies seem cautiously optimistic but want more confirmation that their ships won't be attacked before sending them through the Strait. LEBANON •Israel said the temporary truce between the U.S. and Iran does not include Lebanon, and the Israel Defense Forces continued to strike Hezbollah targets there. •Pakistan's prime minister said the U.S.-Iran agreement does include Lebanon. Lebanon's economy minister complained of "mixed signals." IRAQ •Kataib Hezbollah freed American journalist Shelly Kittleson yesterday - one week after kidnapping her in Baghdad. •The group apparently abducted Kittleson in order to use her as a bargaining chip to win the release of some of its members from Iraqi jails, and it worked: several imprisoned Kataib Hezbollah members were freed yesterday, too. AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN •Afghanistan and Pakistan have been quietly engaging in peace talks in the western Chinese city of Urumqi this week. •Kabul called the talks "useful," but it sounds like both sides merely repeated the same tired accusations and demands they've been making for decades. •The only thing that China's Foreign Ministry could claim that this summit achieved was a vague alignment on "media coverage" (and the fact that it offered no further details on what that means shows how little alignment there really was). NORTH KOREA •North Korean state media published photos of Kim Jong Un's daughter and presumed successor, Kim Ju-ae, driving a tank during a military exercise. •Pyongyang's propaganda is always carefully crafted to send a specific message. These images of Ju-ae in military motifs are likely intended to convey that - despite being female in a deeply patriarchal society - she has the legitimacy to succeed her male ancestors. [They also show that North Korea has a low driving age: Ju-ae is thought to be just 13.] SPACE •NASA's Artemis II mission beamed some spectacular images from its lunar flyby back to Earth yesterday. You can see them here: https://t.co/6IqxEqVCCH.
Open source reportOff Leash update 2 March COMING UP THIS WEEK •China's National People's Congress - a rubber-stamp parliament - opens its annual meeting Thursday. Analysts expect it to set a slightly lower GDP growth than last year's target: perhaps 4.5% instead of 5.0%. •The Winter Paralympics start Friday in Milan and Cortina d'Ampezzo, Italy. •Colombia votes for its parliament Sunday, which is also International Women's Day and the beginning of Daylight Savings Time in the U.S. (but not in Europe, where clocks change Mar. 29). COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,140/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $66,223 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $13,344/ton •Ethereum: $1,951 •Gold: $5,392/toz •Lead: $1,962/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.01/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $72.21/barrel - Some analysts expect this to rise to $85-90 when markets open today because of Iran's naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following U.S. and Israeli strikes over the weekend. •Zinc: $3,317/ton IRAN •The U.S. and Israel bombed Iran on Saturday morning, targeting a daytime gathering of senior Iranian figures - including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei - in some of their opening strikes. •Iranian state media confirmed early rumors that Khamenei was killed in the strikes. Many Iranians cheered his death and the end of his 37-year theocratic reign; others - largely religious ultraconservatives - mourned his loss. •The regime announced 40 days of mourning and said the constitutionally-defined process of appointing his successor would begin immediately and could anoint the next Ayatollah within days. •Candidates include his son, Mojtaba; his loyal aide, Ali Larijani; and several hardline clerics. Whoever is picked will immediately have a target on their back. That said, all the top candidates probably already do: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said his military has "thousands more targets" in its sights. •The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) vowed to avenge Khamenei's death, but much of the IRGC's leadership - including its top commander - died with him. •The decapitated IRGC still retaliated by launching ballistic missiles at Israel and several countries in the region that host U.S. military bases. Most were easily intercepted, but some caused damage and a few caused casualties - including the deaths of three U.S. soldiers. •The ongoing exchange of fire has caused widespread flight cancellations, and both sides seem bent on further escalation. In particular, Iran's navy is reportedly carrying out the IRGC's threat to choke off shipping in the vital waterway, through which 31% of all seaborne crude oil passes. •In a social media post, Pres. Trump called on Iranians to finish the job: "When we are finished, take over your government." It's not clear whether the battered, unarmed, and disorganized opposition will heed his call to rise up, but leaving the hard part to them lets Trump avoid sending ground troops into what could become another Middle Eastern quagmire. LEBANON •Iran's strongest remaining proxy, Hezbollah, then joined Iran's side by lobbing missiles towards Israel from Lebanon. Israel promptly retaliated with a barrage of airstrikes on Hezbollah areas in Lebanon. •Israel's quick, decisive action against Hezbollah was embarrassing for the Lebanese government, which promised Israel it would rein in the militia as a condition of their Nov. 2024 ceasefire, but has made little progress doing so out of fears of a confrontation that the weak Lebanese army might lose. UKRAINE •Ukrainian officials said Russia had agreed to some facets of the post-war security guarantees the U.S. proposed. The two sides still need to resolve the other sticking point of land trades, and Moscow could still renege on its pinky promise on security guarantees. PAKISTAN AND AFGHANISTAN •Afghanistan's Taliban government said its military fired anti-aircraft missiles that successfully deterred Pakistani jets threatening Bagram Air Base. •Bagram holds significant symbolic importance for the Taliban: the captured U.S. base holds Afghanistan's largest runway and hosts annual military parades each year on the anniversary of the Taliban's return to power. •Its destruction would be a much bigger loss for the Taliban than the small ammunition depots Pakistan targeted in its first wave of cross-border strikes last week. VENEZUELA •Venezuela's opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado, announced in a social media post that she plans to return to her home country in the coming weeks. •Machado left Venezuela in December to attend the Nobel award ceremony in Oslo, where she collected her Nobel Peace Prize. •Before she left, Nicolas Maduro's government charged her with a litany of crimes and ominously warned that she wouldn't be allowed to return if she left. •Maduro's former vice president and successor, Interim President Delcy Rodriguez, may only be slightly more lenient on her: Rodriguez recently said Machado will have to "answer to Venezuela" for advocating for U.S. military intervention in Caracas.
Open source reportOff Leash update 3 Nov COMING UP THIS WEEK •The U.S. votes in mid-term elections on Tuesday. The most-watched races include New York City's mayoral contest, heated gubernatorial polls in Virginia and New Jersey, and California's Prop. 50 on redistricting (to supporters) / gerrymandering (to those opposed). •Sunday marks the 36th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,884/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $107,777 •Cobalt: $48,570/ton •Copper: $10,888/ton •Ethereum: $3,733 •Gold: $4,022/toz •Lead: $2,017/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.28/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $60.76/barrel •Zinc: $3,056/ton GAZA •Hamas returned the remains of three more hostages, including U.S. citizen Omer Neutra. •Despite Israeli claims otherwise, Hamas maintains that it's working as fast as it can to locate and return the remains of the other eight hostages who died in captivity over the course of the two-year war. •Meanwhile, an Israeli airstrike killed one man who was allegedly threatening Israeli troops near Gaza City. LEBANON •Israel is growing frustrated with the Lebanese government's lack of progress disarming Hezbollah, and has taken up the task of targeting Hezbollah operatives in southern Lebanon with near-daily airstrikes in recent weeks. •Lebanon's Pres. Aoun resents the intrusions and wants Israeli troops to leave the five areas of southern Lebanon that they still occupy. Aoun has called on Israel to negotiate a more permanent ceasefire than the fragile (but lasting) truce they signed a year ago. •However, Israel seems uninterested in negotiating while Aoun's government is failing to uphold its commitment to contain and disarm Hezbollah. [Analysts point out that Aoun's Lebanese Armed Forces are weaker than Hezbollah and he can't do much to force disarmament.] •Prime Minister Netanyahu warned of further Israeli action against Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, and blamed Iran for backing both Hezbollah and the Houthis. TANZANIA •Tanzania's election commission confirmed Samia Suluhu Hassan - who appointed its commissioners - as the winner of last week's presidential election, with an unsurprising 98% of the vote. The commission also dubiously claimed that turnout was around 75% higher than in 2020, when voters had more of a choice of candidates. •Hassan's win was essentially uncontested this time, since her government barred both real rivals from running. It also tried to prevent unhappy Tanzanians from protesting against the election by imposing a nationwide curfew, restricting internet access, and condescendingly calling critics of the undemocratic poll "neither responsible nor patriotic." •The main opposition party, CHADEMA - whose leader is imprisoned awaiting sentencing on spurious charges - claims security officers have killed hundreds of protesters. Demonstrations continue, despite Hassan's crackdown. CHINA •U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said China made a "real mistake" by proposing since-postponed export control restrictions on rare earths, since the threat alone motivated the U.S. to get serious about finding alternative sources for its rare earths needs. •Australia is one of the alternative sources being developed: Pres. Trump and Prime Minister Albanese recently signed an agreement to jointly develop Australia's rare earth supplies. •Incidentally, Bessent's comments felt like a close parallel to the effect that U.S. export controls on advanced computing chips have had on Chinese chipmaking, where supply restrictions forced fast-track domestic innovators to quickly catch up to technologies they were barred from importing. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 28 Nov Lebanon •The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire that took effect yesterday is largely holding - although thousands of displaced Lebanese began to return to southern villages before Israeli forces withdrew and lifted movement restrictions. Israeli soldiers opened fire on "suspects" and vehicles that violated movement restrictions in at least six villages. •On the other side of the border, tens of thousands of displaced Israeli civilians seem more reluctant to trust the truce and aren't rushing to return to the homes they fled. •They have good reason to be wary: in its first official statement since the ceasefire announcement, Hezbollah vowed to continue its resistance and monitor the Israeli withdrawal from border regions with "hands on the trigger." •Despite its tough talk, Hezbollah was clearly the turkey in this deal: it lost an estimated 4,000 fighters and most of its senior leadership in the past three months and gained nothing from the truce except an end to a war Hamas started. Syria •Syria's Pres. Assad has long relied on Hezbollah and other Iran-backed Shia allies to keep rebel Sunni groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in check in the northwest. •Now conflicts with Israel have severely diminished Iran's proxies, and Al Qaeda-linked HTS spied an opportunity to gobble back territory around Aleppo. HTS and its allied factions launched their most significant attacks on Syrian government forces since the 2020 ceasefire, capturing the largest Syrian army base there - Base 46 - and encroaching to within three miles (five km) of Aleppo city. •Assad's air force - along with its Russian allies and unnamed "friendly forces" - claimed that it responded with a devastating counterattack, but local reports suggest fighting is ongoing - which would portend regime weakness and much more volatility to come. Ukraine •Pres.-elect Trump appointed Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Keith Kellogg to the new post of Special Envoy to Russia and Ukraine, where he'll be tasked with overseeing efforts to bring about a quick end to the war. •Analysts are looking to an April 2024 position paper Kellogg wrote for insight into how he might approach that task. One idea his paper suggested was "to put off NATO membership [for Ukraine] for an extended period" to draw Pres. Putin into negotiations. •Separately, Russia launched another massive barrage of drones and missiles at over 180 targets in western Ukraine near Lviv - far from the front lines. Ukraine intercepted a majority of the projectiles, but the handful that reached their targets took out electricity for over one million Ukrainians. China •According to the Wall Street Journal, Baltic investigators have a theory on how two undersea cables were severed on consecutive days last week. •Investigators believe the Chinese bulk carrier Yi Peng 3 deliberately dragged its anchor along the seabed for more than 100 miles (160 km) and across the two affected cables. As one investigator pointed out: "It’s extremely unlikely that the captain would not have noticed that his ship dropped and dragged its anchor, losing speed for hours and cutting cables on the way." •They don't think the Chinese government was involved, but they do suspect Russian intelligence was. (The Kremlin called these "absurd, unsubstantiated accusations.") Mexico •Pres.-elect Trump and Mexico's Pres. Sheinbaum spoke by phone yesterday to address Trump's concerns about illegal immigration through Mexico - and his threat to slap a 25% tariff on Mexican imports to the U.S. if Mexico doesn't address his immigration concerns. •Trump's readout suggested the conversation was easy as pie: he said Sheinbaum agreed to "stop Migration through Mexico, and into the United States, effectively closing our Southern Border." 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 27 Nov 2024 Happy and Blessed Thanksgiving to you all America! We stand on the shoulders of giants and must care wisely for our Republic. Hezbollah •Israel's cabinet approved a deal for a "permanent cessation of hostilities" with Hezbollah yesterday, and it went into effect at 4 am local time. •As early reports suggested, the truce gives Israel 60 days to withdraw from parts of Lebanon south of the Litani River, handing control of those areas to the Lebanese military, which will be responsible for ensuring Hezbollah doesn't return to the border regions (as it did quickly after the failed 2006 peace agreement). •Turkey called on Israel to pay Lebanon reparations for the damage Israeli airstrikes inflicted during the campaign. The World Bank estimated that the three-month campaign caused Lebanon $8.5 billion in damage and losses. However, Israel has no obligation to pay - and probably won't. •Some - including Pres. Biden - were hopeful that Hezbollah's decision to make peace with Israel will galvanize (or cow) Hamas into a similar agreement, but that doesn't seem likely: neither Hamas nor Israel has shown any inclination to deescalate. China •The Financial Times (FT) reported that China's Defense Minister, Adm. Dong Jun, is being investigated for corruption. Dong is the third Chinese Defense Minister in a row to face corruption allegations. •Analysts think the investigation is a sign that Pres. Xi is expanding his crackdown on corruption in the People's Liberation Army (PLA). Some further surmised that the inquiries - and the fact that they keep digging up dirt on Xi's handpicked top brass - could shake Xi's confidence in his military, which could alter his timeline and ambitions on Beijing's claim to Taiwan. •China dismissed the FT report about Dong as "shadow chasing," but there have been other signs that Dong's clout is diminished: for example, he was recently skipped over for a widely-expected appointment to the Central Military Commission that runs the PLA. Venezuela •Pres. Maduro's government announced yet another investigation into alleged "crimes of treason against the country" by opposition leader Maria Corina Machado. •Maduro blames Machado for inspiring the U.S. to slap sanctions on him and his cronies, but all she really did was organize a way to expose Maduro's election theft by collecting true vote tallies that confirmed he lost the election. Mozambique •After weeks of trying to brush post-election protests under the rug, Pres. Nyusi acknowledged an impasse and offered to meet opposition leader Venâncio Mondlane for talks on election results Mondlane has questioned. Mondlane refused to attend in person but offered to talk virtually - if the ruling Frelimo party agrees to that and his other demands. •Some minor opposition parties did attend talks with Frelimo, but the meeting lost steam quickly without a quorum. •Meanwhile, protests flared back up after police violently broke up a pro-Mondlane rally. Netizens were particularly aghast at a widely-shared video of an armored police vehicle running down an unarmed protester earlier today. Pakistan •Supporters of jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan ended their demonstrations demanding his release - and the dissolution of the government that convicted him - after police used force to disrupt the rallies. At least six - including both police and demonstrators - died in the melee.
Open source reportOff Leash update 26 Nov Tariffs •President-elect Trump said he would sign an executive order on his first day in office - Jan. 20, 2025 - to slap new tariffs of 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico, and 10% on China. Trump called the levies a "price" those nations must pay for their failure to stop the flow of illegal drugs and immigrants to the U.S. •All three affected countries immediately objected to the proposed tariffs. Canada objected politely, explaining that it's already working well with U.S. officials to block fentanyl trafficking "from China and other countries." •China, meanwhile, objected with hostility, calling the idea that it would deliberately send fentanyl precursors to the U.S. runs "completely counter to facts," and ominously warning that "no one will win a trade war or a tariff war." Hezbollah •It sounds like Israel and Hezbollah are close to finalizing a ceasefire deal that would give Israeli forces 60 days to withdraw from Lebanon and require Hezbollah to disarm along the border with Israel, where 5,000 Lebanese troops will deploy to help enforce the peace. •The terms of the latest proposal aren't public, but are said to closely track UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war. Except this time Hezbollah won't be allowed to rebuild its forces along the border. •Prime Minister Netanyahu and his cabinet will meet today to discuss the proposal, and Netanyahu is thought to be open to agreeing to the tabled terms - for once. That may mean Hezbollah and Lebanon gave in to his demand reserving the right to resume hostilities if Hezbollah breaks the truce first. •Meanwhile, Israeli forces have now reached the Litani River, which would form the northern frontier of the border buffer zone the Lebanese army will enforce after Israel withdraws south and Hezbollah withdraws north. Ukraine •Russia launched another new record number of drones at Ukraine overnight, once again targeting Ukrainian infrastructure. •Ukraine said it shot down or blocked most of the 188 drones that were launched over its border, but some reached their targets. •Russia is also making rapid gains on the ground: Reuters reported - citing analysts and war bloggers - that Russian ground forces are currently advancing at their fastest rate since 2022 using rapid, small-scale incursions to achieve footholds and then follow up with reinforcements to secure gains. •Meanwhile, Ukraine requested an emergency meeting of NATO ambassadors in Brussels today to discuss Russia's recent use of an intermediate-range ballistic missile against Dnipro last week. Ukraine hopes for "concrete and meaningful outcomes" from the meeting, but it's unlikely to win enthusiastic support from tired donors. Sudan •The Economist reported that the Sudanese army has made clear recent gains against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in central Sennar state and Khartoum in recent weeks. •The weakened RSF has signaled openness to a truce, but the army isn't willing to talk just yet. The RSF still controls most of southwest Sudan, and the army likely wants to improve its negotiating position by locking in more territorial gains before talks begin. Venezuela •Venezuela's opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado, called for a new day of demonstrations against Pres. Maduro's election theft on Dec 1. •Maduro's Minister of the Interior then accused Machado of orchestrating another conspiracy against Maduro and launched another bullying campaign against the opposition. In this case, police deployed to the Argentine Embassy to intimidate the many opposition figures from Machado's party who have taken refuge there.
Open source reportOff Leash update 25 Nov Coming Up This Week •The Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee on Plastics Pollution (INC-5) meets in Busan, Korea today through Sunday. They aim to set targets and a timeline for reducing global plastic production, but it will be hard to reach concensus on plastics policy when we don't yet have clear scientific concensus on the risks plastics pose - and with plastics producers and oil companies resisting new regulation. •Indonesia votes in regional elections and Namibia votes in a general election on Wednesday. Indonesia's vote isn't getting much press: most of the regional races are inconsequential on the national scale and the overall vote seems more like a gauge of new president Joko Widodo's regional influence than a referendum on his policy plan. In Namibia, the long-ruling SWAPO party faces its toughest test yet because economic frustrations are driving younger voters away from the status quo and into the arms of upstart opposition parties. •The U.S. celebrates Thanksgiving on Thursday and shops Black Friday the following day. Only one of the two holidays has spread beyond U.S. borders: many other countries - including much of Europe and even Iran - now join in on the Black Friday shopping bonanza...but not the Thanksgiving feast. •Ireland votes in a snap election on Friday. Prime Minister Harris's Fine Gael party is polling in third place after losing one-fourth of its support over a series of gaffes in recent weeks, but its main coalition partner - Fianna Fail - is polling in first, so their coalition should prevail. Coommodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,624/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $33,550/ton •Cobalt: $24,300/ton •Copper: $8,968/ton •Gold: $2,640/toz •Lead: $2,022/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.32/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $69.53/barrel •Zinc: $2,967/ton Israel, Hezbollah, and Hamas •Despite reported progress in Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire talks, both sides continued to exchange fire. Israel targeted a top Hezbollah military commander in central Beirut, killing at least 29 (but reportedly not the commander it was after). Hezbollah then retaliated by firing around 250 rockets into Israel, including at Tel Aviv (Israel intercepted most but there were a few injuries). •Israeli-Moldovan Rabbi Zvi Kogan went missing in Abu Dhabi last Thursday and was found murdered yesterday. Israeli officials called his killing an "abhorrent act of antisemitic terrorism," and UAE police arrested "three perpetrators involved in the murder." Israel has previously accused Iran and its proxies of targeting Israelis abroad, and Emirati police are investigating the possibility that Iran was behind this assassination. Ukraine / Yemen •Financial Times reported that Russia has recruited - and, in some cases, forced - hundreds of Yemenis to fight in its war against Ukraine. •According to the Times report, many of the new recruits had no prior military training or experience and couldn't read the enlistment contracts they signed. Some said a man speaking non-native Arabic fired a pistol over their head and ordered them to sign a document written in Russian. •The other side of Russia's recruitment drive in Yemen is equally concerning: U.S. Special Envoy for Yemen Tim Lenderking assessed that Russia may be rewarding the Houthi leaders facilitating its recruitment with promises to send new weapons the Houthis can use to target Red Sea shipping. Pakistan •Thousands of supporters of deposed Prime Minister Imran Khan rallied in Islamabad to demand his release from jail - and the dissolution of the current government that jailed him. Khan faces over 150 criminal charges - which he says are politically motivated - and has been incarcerated for over a year. Afghanistan •An apparently lone gunman opened fire at a Sufi shrine in Afghanistan's Baghlan province during a weekly ritual on Friday, killing 10. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 20November Hezbollah •U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein said a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah is "within our grasp" after Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri relayed Hezbollah's positive feedback on the latest proposed terms. •Even if Israel and Hezbollah are able to work out a truce, maintaining peace would be a challenge. The tall task of ensuring security for the border areas Hezbollah previously occupied would fall on the enfeebled Lebanese military - which has been hollowed out by decades of partisan infighting and has not proven itself up to the task. Gaza •In a change of tack, Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu offered hostage captors a carrot - in addition to a stick: he announced a reward of $5 million and safe passage from Gaza for anyone who returns an Israeli hostage. He also reiterated the threat of the stick, vowing to make anyone who harms a hostage "pay the price." Haiti •Haiti's police clashed with Viv Ansanm gang members in the posh Port-au-Prince suburb of Pétionville early yesterday after Viv Ansanm's leader, charismatic ex-cop Jimmy Chérizier (aka "Barbeque"), announced plans to attack the area on social media the previous night. Chérizier specifically threatened managers of Pétionville hotels protecting politicians or "oligarchs" inside. •Chérizier's advance warning may have given police and local residents time to mount a counterattack. Local vigilantes fought alongside police, and together they killed 28 suspected gang members. •Separately, Doctors Without Borders (or MSF, using its French acronym) said it would end its work in Haiti because of "violence and threats" police have made towards medical aid workers. MSF gives medical assistance to all who need it - including gang members - and its ambulances have occasionally been targeted for transporting injured gangsters. Venezuela •The U.S. formally recognized Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia as the "president-elect" of Venezuela. •That's consistent with the vote tallies the opposition provided, which showed Gonzalez defeating Pres. Maduro by a margin of almost two to one. Those are the only credible tallies available, since Maduro's government hasn't provided data to support his claim to victory. •Gonzalez is no longer in Venezuela to assume the presidency: he fled to Spain in September, citing fears for his life amidst Maduro's crackdown on the opposition. Ukraine •Multiple accounts - including from UK and Ukrainian military officials and the BBC - concluded that Russia suffered more military casualties in October than in any other month of the war. The UK estimated a daily average of 1,354 Russians killed or injured on each day of October. •The UK now estimates that Russia has suffered 700,000 casualties over the 1,000 days of the war to date. •Separately, Ukraine said it fired U.S.-made Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) ballistic missiles at targets in Russia's Bryansk border region (west of Kursk) for the first time yesterday - two days after reportedly getting Washington's long-withheld approval to do so. o[U.S. media had initially reported that the authorization would only be for use in Kursk, but this adjacent province may have been included in the approval since it houses military arsenals that support the fighting in Kursk.] •Russia claimed it intercepted five of six missiles fired and damaged the sixth. A U.S. official said only two of eight missiles fired were intercepted, and the other six hit their targets inside a munitions depot. •Moscow complained about the ATACMS barrage, calling it a "qualitatively new phase of the Western war" and promising to retaliate "accordingly." 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 13 Nov Hezbollah •Israel's foreign minister told the media that "there is some progress in the attempts to reach a settlement in Lebanon," raising hopes for a ceasefire. •However, such hopes now seem premature: Israel's brand-new defense minister, Israel Katz, quickly reaffirmed that "there will be no ceasefire and no respite" until Israel achieves its objectives, which include the lofty goal of returning tens of thousands of northern Israelis to the homes they evacuated due to war. •For its part, Hezbollah said it hasn't received any new peace proposals and is "ready for a prolonged war" with Israel. •It may not last too long anyway. Israel's military said it has "dismantled a majority of Hezbollah’s weapons storage and missile manufacturing facilities" under the Hezbollah stronghold of Dahieh, Beirut. •That hasn't stopped Hezbollah from lobbing more rockets and drones at Israel. The group launched around 200 attacks this week; killing one Israeli soldier and two civilians in separate attacks on northern Israel. •Separately, there are unconfirmed reports that a recent Israeli strike on al-Qusayr, Syria killed Salim Jamil Ayyash: the Hezbollah operative who was accused of (and convicted in absentia by a UN-backed tribunal for) assassinating Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri in 2005. In addition to his tribunal sentence to life in prison, Ayyash had a $10 million U.S. bounty on his head. Yemen •Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis launched drones and missiles at two U.S. destroyers - USS Stockdale and USS Spruance - in the Bab al Mandeb strait off the coast of Yemen. •It sounds like it was a significant barrage: a Pentagon spokesman said it lasted for hours and involved five ballistic missiles, two cruise missiles, and at least eight kamikaze drones. •The Houthis falsely claimed they attacked the USS Lincoln aircraft carrier too, and erroneously claimed its attack "successfully achieved its objectives": the USS Lincoln didn't report any incidents and the destroyers intercepted all incoming projectiles and sustained no damage or injuries. Ukraine •Russia fired missiles at Kyiv for the first time in three months. Ukraine's air defenses intercepted both cruise missiles and both ballistic missiles, as well as 37 drones. Kyiv reported only mild damage to a warehouse and a single minor injury - both from falling debris. Some drones were still flying, though. Sudan •The U.S. Treasury sanctioned the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) commander in West Darfur, Abdel Rahman Juma Barkalla, because of the human rights abuses his troops committed in the region under his command - including kidnapping and killing the regional governor. •Separately, the UN undersecretary-general for political and peacebuilding affairs called for unspecified countries and third-parties to stop sending weapons to the RSF and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). •The UAE and Russia's Africa Corps (fka Wagner Group) are arming the RSF, while Egypt is closely allied with the SAF and Iran is reportedly considering sending weapons to the SAF. Niger •Niger's Mining Minister, Ousmane Abarchi, told state media that the junta had "already met with Russian companies that are interested in coming to explore and exploit Niger's natural resources... not only uranium." (Though uranium is the most significant natural resource Niger has: it's the world's seventh-largest uranium producer). •The junta seems open to handing over its minerals to Russia - especially if it means snubbing French companies like Orano, which was producing uranium in Niger before the coup. Abarchi said French companies won't be allowed to exploit Niger's minerals because France refuses to recognize the junta's power grab. Electric Vehicles •Volkswagen quintupled down on its investment in U.S. electric vehicle (EV) maker Rivian, raising its investment from $800 million to $5.8 billion.
Open source reportOff Leash update 29 October Steve Bannon, political prisoner has been released from Federal Prison. Incarcerated four months for contempt of congress. Gaza •Israel indicated openness to considering Egypt's proposal for a short ceasefire and small hostage release. Hamas hasn't responded yet, but my guess is that it would prefer to hold out for a lasting ceasefire instead of a short one. •Israel has lost 55 soldiers in Gaza this month, making this the deadliest month of the war for the Israeli military. •Israel's parliament approved a bill that would - if enforced - close down the UNRWA (the UN agency responsible for aid distribution and implementation in Gaza and the West Bank). •Israel contends that the UNRWA is too sympathetic to - and even supportive of - Hamas and its terrorism, and there seems to be a kernel of truth to that: of the 19 UNRWA officials that Israel accused of participating directly in the Oct. 7 attacks, UNRWA investigators cleared 10 but fired nine who they determined had possibly joined the attacks. •Israel's allies - including the U.S., UK, France, and Germany - oppose a ban on the UNRWA because it would shut off the only trickle of much-needed aid still flowing into Gaza [the International Organization for Migration (IOM) could step up to fill the gap, but its director said there's "no way" the IOM could replace UNRWA]. The allies are trying to talk Israel out of enforcing its new ban. Hezbollah •Hezbollah named Hassan Nasrallah's longtime deputy, Naim Qassem, as its new leader. •Qassem has seemed reluctant to assume the mantle of leadership - and the target it puts on his back. After Nasrallah's death, he quickly fled to Iran to avoid the Israeli airstrikes that were were picking off Hezbollah's succession chain in Lebanon. •Early reports suggest Qassem will stay in Iran and lead Hezbollah from there, which will make it harder for him to lead an organization already in disarray. Ukraine •The Pentagon warned that North Korean soldiers have arrived in the western Ukrainian region of Kursk and could soon join the front lines. •The U.S. now estimates 10,000 North Korean soldiers are receiving military training in Russia and will soon deploy to Ukraine. That's a significant increase on the original U.S. estimate of 3,000, but it matches South Korea's initial guess. •A Pentagon spokesman said that the U.S. could lift its restrictions on Ukraine's use of donated long-range weapons to strike Russia if North Korea joins the war on Russia's side. North Korean soldiers apparently have already joined the war, so we could soon see Ukraine carrying out longer-range strikes inside Russia. •Russia's defense ministry said it "is thinking about how to respond" if the ban is lifted and Ukraine starts firing at Moscow.
Open source reportOff Leash update 23 October Hezbollah •Israel confirmed that one of its early October airstrikes on Beirut - analysts believe it was the barrage on Oct. 3 - killed Hashem Safieddine, the cousin and presumed successor to Hassan Nasrallah. •Netanyahu alluded to Safieddine's demise on Oct. 8 when he said Israel had killed "Nasrallah’s replacement, and his replacement’s replacement." •Analysts presume Safieddine was the "replacement," which would mean Israel also believes - though it hasn't confirmed yet - that it has killed Safieddine's replacement. •[I'm not sure who that would be. It's not Naim Qassem, Hezbollah's longtime deputy leader who was initially the rumored successor to Nasrallah: Qassem reportedly fled Lebanon for Iran Oct. 5 after resigning from his position and delivering a shaky recorded speech after Nasrallah's death in which he seemed to feel and fear the target on his back.] •Though leaderless, Hezbollah continued to fire rockets at Tel Aviv for the second consecutive day. Ukraine •South Korea increased its estimate of the number of North Korean troops already fighting for Russia in Ukraine. It now thinks 3,000 North Koreans have arrived on the front lines - of the total 11,000 Pyongyang committed to Russia. •According to a video posted by a Chinese mercenary who's also fighting for Russia in Ukraine, the North Koreans aren't doing very well: the mercenary - who goes by Dian Yuzhan (“prison warden” in Chinese) online - said eight North Korean officers were killed on their very first day of fighting: "goddamn it, they were gone just after entering [the war]." •The Economist noted that while the "erratic and heavily-armed" North Koreans' presence in Ukraine could throw some curveballs for Ukrainian defenders, it's also a sign that Russia has lowered its standards for allies out of desperation: (quoting John Foreman, a former British defense attaché to Russia from 2019-2022) " 'Russia used to look down on North Korea as a pygmy state,' he says. It was the great power 'with Tchaikovsky and Chekhov and ballet…not some bloke with ill-fitting suits in love with artillery and killing people.' " China •Last week, China stoked fears in Taiwan with large-scale military drills in the area, including a simulated blockade. Now it is keeping its threat looming over the island with new live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait. •Separately, India and China said they "reached a solution" over their shared border in the Himalayas, where their soldiers have fought deadly battles with sticks and knives in recent years. •Now with their border tensions deescalated and patrols resumed on both sides of the boundary, Pres. Xi and PM Modi will meet this week on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia. It'll be their first formal bilateral meeting since 2019. •Their broader border dispute remains unresolved, though. This "solution" merely lets both sides maintain their respective (and occasionally mutually exclusive) territorial claims so they can amicably collaborate on initiatives that benefit them both - like trade.
Open source reportOff Leash update 22 October Venezuela •Venezuelan police arrested former oil minister Pedro Tellechea and accused him of sharing key internal documents from state oil company PDVSA with "a company controlled by the US Intelligence Services." •Tellechea had just resigned from his post as Minister of Industry and National Production on Friday, citing health reasons. •He's the fourth Venezuelan oil minister since 2017 - out of five who have served in that time - to be arrested on similar allegations. Russia •Former U.S. Marine Paul Whelan spoke for the first time about his experience in the Russian prison system before his release in a swap this summer. •In an interview with CBS (https://t.co/ao8FzNaObF), Whelan called prison conditions "monotonous and filthy," and said he passed information from fellow prisoners who fought on the front lines in Ukraine along to Western officials using burner phones. •In other news about ex-Russian prisoners, murdered dissident Alexey Navalny's memoirs (titled "Patriot") come out today. The Economist called the book "a passionate and moving testimony to Russia’s extreme violence." Argentina •Argentina's Pres. Milei - who campaigned with a chainsaw symbolizing his pledge to slash the size of the bureaucracy - took another bold step towards that promise by dissolving the country's bloated revenue service, Administración Federal de Ingresos Públicos (AFIP). •Milei announced the creation of a new entity - Agencia de Recaudación y Control Aduanero (ARCA) - to replace AFIP. ARCA's directors will get paid 90% less than AFIP's, while salaries at lower levels of ARCA will see smaller reductions of 30%. Hezbollah and Hamas •SecState Blinken landed in Israel today to try to convince PM Netanyahu's government to agree to a ceasefire and hostage deal now that Israel's Enemy No. 1 - Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar - is dead. That won't be easy: Netanyahu has indicated that he isn't ready to end the war yet. •Israel's army declassified intelligence about one of the targets of its airstrikes aimed at cutting off Hezbollah's funding: a vault with tens of millions of dollars in gold and cash. •It's unclear whether the Israeli airstrikes destroyed that money, but the IDF also said it had not yet targeted a separate vault hidden under a hospital in Beirut that contains much more: "at least half a billion dollars in dollar bills and gold." A spokesman added: "This money could and still can be used to rebuild the state of Lebanon." Iran •Over the weekend, two documents purporting to show Five Eyes-only U.S. intelligence analysis of Israel's possible plans to retaliate on Iran for its ballistic missile barrage were posted on Telegram and then shared widely - especially within Iran. •The fact that the White House said Pres. Biden was "deeply concerned" about the unauthorized release of the files - plus the fact that they were first publicized by a pro-Iran account, Middle East Spectator - suggests the U.S. didn't deliberately leak them and they may have been stolen by hackers instead. •Most foreign airlines have paused flights to Iran in anticipation of Israel's retaliation. DRC •Rwanda-backed M23 rebels captured the North Kivu town of Kalembe, ending a ceasefire signed in August after years of Angolan mediation. Few believed the truce would last as long as it took DRC and the M23 to agree to it. Other News •Moldova confirmed that its referendum on (eventually) joining the EU was approved - though the vote was too close to call yesterday, thanks in part to Russia's meddling to buy 300,000 votes against the measure. Pres. Sandu called the Russian intervention "fraud of an unprecedented scale."
Open source reportOff Leash update 21 October Coming Up This Week •World Bank and IMF annual meetings take place in Washington, DC today through Saturday. Climate change programs are high on the agenda - although rich countries don't want to pay for them and indebted poor countries can't afford to. •Leaders of Commonwealth countries (the UK and most of its ex-colonies - or, roughly, countries that play cricket) meet in Samoa starting today. It's the first biennial Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting that King Charles III will lead. •Russia will host BRICS leaders for the bloc's 16th annual summit in Kazan tomorrow through Thursday. This will be the first opportunity for its new members (Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE) to join the namesake original members (Brazil Russia, India, China, and South Africa) for the meetings. [Saudi has been invited to join the bloc but isn't an official member yet and won't join this year's summit.] The group will discuss the possible future accession of up to 15 new members, including Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. •Uruguay and Japan will both vote on Sunday. A leftist opposition candidate, Yamandú Orsi, leads Uruguay's presidential polls, but not by enough to avoid a runoff. In Japan's snap poll, the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party hopes to recover public trust it lost in recent financial scandals, but it risks losing ground to a divided opposition. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,552/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,100/ton •Cobalt: $23,995/ton •Copper: $9,472/ton •Gold: $2,733/toz - an all-time record high •Lead: $2,034/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.28/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $70.34/barrel •Zinc: $3,082/ton Cuba •Cuba suffered four nationwide electrical grid failures over the weekend. •The energy minister blamed power plant problems, and it's no surprise that the island's outdated plants are failing: Fidel Castro once called them "prehistoric." The eight plants that produce Cuba's electricity are almost 50 years old - nearly twice their useful life - and poorly maintained. •The government seems to expect some blowback over the grid failures: Pres. Diaz-Canel appeared on national television (between blackouts) in fatigues to urge Cubans to express their frustrations peacefully. Middle East •Israel carried out airstrikes against Hezbollah's financial partner, Al-Qard al-Hasan, in Lebanon, and against Hamas in northern Gaza. •Militants in Hezbollah targeted PM Netanyahu's coastal residence, Caesarea, in a drone strike over the weekend. One drone penetrated Israeli air defenses but caused no casualties. Ukraine and Russia •Yulia Navalnaya - the widow of murdered dissident Alexey Navalny - told BBC that she intends to continue her late husband's fight against Pres. Putin: "I will do everything to make his regime fall as soon as possible." •Navalnaya also said she intends to run for president of Russia as soon as Putin is out of the picture (she rationally fears returning to Russia while Putin is still in power because his government - which killed her husband - has accused her of extremism too). •Separately, Ukraine sent hundreds of drones into several regions of Russia overnight. Russia intercepted most of them, but one penetrated Russian air defenses and struck a military explosives manufacturer deep inside Russian territory. •Russia also targeted Kyiv with airstrikes over the weekend. North Korea •South Korea's spy agency studied satellite photos to conclude that at least 1,500 North Korean Special Forces troops are fighting for Russia in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine previously warned that North Korea plans to send up to 10,000 troops to the war. Other News •Moldova voted yesterday on a referendum deeming EU membership a "strategic objective." The outcome is too close to call but slightly tilted in favor of closer ties with (and, eventually, membership in) the EU - despite Russia spending around €100 million supporting the other side.
Open source reportOff leash update 17 October ***The IDF successfully eliminated Hama's leader Yahya Sinwar Venezuela •Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado denied Pres. Maduro's claim that she's fled the country for Spain: "Venezuelans know that I am here in Venezuela, the people know it and Nicolas Maduro also knows it." •Machado remains - wisely - in hiding and out of reach of police seeking to arrest her on bogus, politically-motivated charges. She told an independent TV channel that Maduro and his cronies "are desperate to know where I am and I'm not going to give them that pleasure." Ukraine •Pres. Zelensky was deprived of an opportunity to do a grand reveal of his "victory plan" during last week's multilateral meeting on Ukraine, but he instead pitched the plan bilaterally during a whirlwind tour meeting leaders of the UK, U.S., France, Italy, and Germany. •Yesterday, Zelensky shared the high-level plan with Ukraine's parliament and the media. •Its centerpiece is a request for NATO to extend an unconditional invitation to Ukraine to join its alliance - which has not been forthcoming - and it also calls on partners to expand their military support for Ukraine. •None of the plan's five public points contained any major new proposals - yet Zelensky insisted that "if we start implementing this Victory Plan now, we may be able to end the war no later than next year." (The plan also proposed three "secret" points that were selectively shared with partners). •So far, it's received a muted response. NATO's SecGen, Mark Rutte, said the alliance would "take note" of Zelensky's proposal, and several partners announced minor new aid packages (the U.S. offered $425 million in fresh military support - including for air defenses - and Australia said it would send Ukraine 50 old M1 Abrams tanks worth $164 million). Hezbollah •Israel brushed off a U.S. warning that it "had concerns with and [is] opposed to" Israel's strikes on Beirut and carried out more airstrikes on Hezbollah targets near the Lebanese capital yesterday, killing at least 16. •Israel didn't officially comment on the other U.S. critique conveyed yesterday - an ultimatum to improve aid flows to Gaza within 30 days or risk losing access to new U.S. weapons - but there was a slight uptick in humanitarian aid flows to Gaza. Yesterday, 50 aid trucks entered the strip - more than the recent rate of 30 per day but still far short of the 350 per day that aid officials say Gazans need. Iran •U.S. B-2 Spirit bombers targeted five underground Houthi weapons facilities yesterday. •The airstrikes were ostensibly carried out to "further degrade the Houthis' capability" to threaten Red Sea shipping, but the choice to use B-2s to strike underground targets was also intended to send a message to Iran that its underground nuclear sites could be next. •(The B-2 is the only U.S. plane that can carry the largest "bunker buster" bombs capable of destroying Iran's underground nuclear sites, and it has never before been used in Yemen - where F/A-18s can do the same job cheaper and with less fleet risk). •SecDef Austin alluded to the Yemen operation being a broader signal to Iran by calling it: "a unique demonstration of the United States’ ability to target facilities that our adversaries seek to keep out of reach, no matter how deeply buried underground, hardened or fortified." •Separately, there are unconfirmed reports that Iranian border guards massacred dozens - or perhaps scores - of Afghans trying to illegally enter Iran from Pakistan on Sunday. •Beijing's latest war games succeeded in scaring Taiwan. A senior Taiwanese security official told Reuters that the unprecedented drills showed that the People's Liberation Army is "increasing the building up of their capacity to turn military exercises into a conflict" and assessed that "this drill presented more of a threat than ever before to Taiwan."
Open source reportOff Leash Update 11 October Middle East •Israel targeted a senior Hezbollah leader, Wafiq Safa, with an airstrike on central Beirut that killed at least 22 people and wounded at least 117 more. •Israel has often had a fairly high tolerance for civilian casualties in pursuit of its enemies' leadership, but now that it's taken out all of Hezbollah's top officials and is chasing increasingly low-level targets, its heavy-handed tactics are creating fresh resentment. A Beiruti whose apartment was destroyed in the blast told WaPo: "I am a moderate, but after this I am with Hezbollah. They are pushing me to be with the resistance." •Separately (but relatedly), the UN complained that Israeli troops fired on its peacekeepers in Lebanon twice in the last two days. Iran •Iran preemptively warned Israel that a strike on its nuclear facilities would violate "global red lines." •This seems like part of a propaganda blitz that Long War Journal describes as "a series of threats, half-truths, and outright lies in the service of softening the political blow that any Israeli strike could land while also raising military costs." •Russia's Pres. Putin met Iran's Pres. Pezeshkian in a hastily-arranged sidebar during a conference in Turkmenistan today. Pezeshkian likely hopes to get Putin's blessing for Iran to buy advanced Russian weapons like Su-35 fighter jets and S-400 air defense systems that Iran has long sought. Pakistan •Heavily-armed insurgents attacked coal mines in the Duki district of Balochistan, apparently targeting minority ethnic Pashtuns - at least 20 of whom died - and destroying mining machinery. •Local officials blamed Baloch separatists who have been intensifying their attacks on outsiders they perceive as threats to their quest for an independent state - like the Chinese engineers they killed with a suicide car bomb in Karachi on Monday. •The Pakistani government has ramped up security ahead of next week's Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Islamabad - lest Baloch separatists try to disrupt the talks. Ukraine •Ukraine's Parliament approved a major tax hike that will supplement increasingly hesitant donor contributions for its war effort. Personal income tax will nearly quadruple (from 1.5% to 5.0%) and bank profits will be retroactively taxed at double their previous rate of 25%. Much of the funds raised will go towards the war: military spending is currently over half the country's $100 billion annual budget. •Ukrainian journalist Victoria Roshchyna died in Russian detention, aged 27. Russia captured her in occupied eastern Ukraine in August 2023 and has released little information about why she was arrested or where in Russia she was being held. The Ukrainian journalists union is seeking to find out how and when she died. Other News •The Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded this year's peace prize to Nihon Hidankyo, a group of Japanese atomic-bomb survivors, for "its efforts to achieve a world free of nuclear weapons." •The chair of the award committee noted that its choice recognized that the "taboo against the use of nuclear weapons is under pressure" at present, which some media read as a rebuke on Russia's lowered threshold for using its nukes.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 9 October Middle East •Hezbollah's deputy leader, Naim Qassem, expressed support for a ceasefire during a televised address yesterday. He didn't mention any conditions - not even the group's longstanding demand for an end to the Gaza war as a precondition for a detente (though Qassem did vaguely vow to continue to stand with Hamas and Palestinians against Israel). •U.S. officials assessed that Qassem's eagerness for a truce shows that Hezbollah is "getting battered" and considering acknowledging defeat. •Separately, Israel targeted a Hezbollah weapons smuggler with an airstrike on a residential building in Damascus's embassy district, killing seven (it's not clear if the target was among those killed). •Israel is still contemplating its options for responding to Iran's (largely-ineffective) ballistic missile strikes last week. PM Netanyahu will speak with Pres. Biden by phone today to discuss Israel's plans. •Iran is girding for a harsh response. Its diplomats have been warning Gulf countries against letting their airspace or military bases be used in an attack on Iran. Mexico •Mexico's new president, AMLO protege Claudia Sheinbaum, unveiled her plan to combat worsening cartel violence yesterday, and analysts were unimpressed. Critics of the plan say it's only a continuation of AMLO's "hugs not bullets" approach that failed to reverse the rise in violence. Russia •It's not just U.S. elections that Russia is seeking to disrupt: the head of the UK's domestic security service (MI5), Ken McCallum, said Russian spies are also trying to "generate mayhem on British and European streets" with acts of "arson, sabotage, and more." •McCallum said over 750 Russian diplomats - "the great majority of them spies" - have been booted from Europe since Russia invaded Ukraine. With its professional troublemakers benched, Moscow then resorted to hiring private operatives and common criminals for its EU missions, McCallum added. He blamed their work for driving a 48% rise in MI5 investigations into state-sponsored operations against the UK in 2023. •McCallum noted that Iran and China are also actively supporting plots in the UK, but not as vigorously as Russia is - and China's operations are primarily focused on targeting dissidents abroad. China •China announced new penalties on European brandy in response to tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) that the EU approved last week. •Beijing argues that EU brandy producers are dumping their tipples in the Chinese market at below-market prices - akin to how China is dumping cheap EVs in the European market at prices lower prices than domestic EV makers can tolerate. •China's new measures are structured in a way that gives the EU a chance to back down on its EV tariffs first: the Ministry of Commerce will temporarily collect deposits of up to 39% on EU brandy imports, but if it makes the penalties permanent then those deposits will be forfeited, effectively becoming tariff payments. •The European Commission plans to challenge China's retaliatory measures at the World Trade Organization. North Korea •Pyongyang announced plans to "permanently" sever road and rail links with South Korea and fortify its border regions. •Road and rail travel between the two Koreas has been cut off for years, so the North's gesture is largely a symbolic indicator that strengthening U.S.-South Korea military collaboration is raising Kim Jong Un's blood pressure. •Separately, Ukrainian media reported that six North Korean soldiers fighting for Russia were killed in a Ukrainian missile strike near Donetsk last week. •South Korea's Defense Minister told parliament that it's "highly likely" that North Korean soldiers are indeed fighting on Russia's side in Ukraine under the mutual defense pact Russia and North Korea signed - though this is still unconfirmed.
Open source reportOff Leash update 25 Sept Middle East •As the dust settled on Israel's strikes in southern and eastern Lebanon, the Lebanese health ministry counted at least 558 dead and 1,645 injured - including 50 women, 94 children, and some first responders. Israel said it was only targeting Hezbollah and accused Hezbollah of using civilians as human shields. •Israel then followed up with an airstrike on southern Beirut that killed a Hezbollah commander involved in the group's rocket attacks. •Then Hezbollah lobbed a ballistic missile at Tel Aviv that Iron Dome intercepted. •Some Israeli hawks want to take advantage of a weakened Hezbollah in disarray and invade southern Lebanon now, while cooler heads - like defense minister Gallant - prefer to give Hezbollah a chance to back down and avoid escalation. •The WSJ warned that a ground invasion "could turn into a quagmire, much like the war in Gaza." Despite Israeli airstrikes, Hezbollah still has a dangerous arsenal of rockets, drones, and antitank missiles; and it continues to smuggle more in. It has also had ample time to fortify a tunnel network of the sort that has bogged Israeli ground troops down in Gaza. •Thousands of people fled the southern and eastern Lebanon in anticipation of further escalation. Ukraine •Ukraine's Pres. Zelensky told the UN Security Council "Russia must be forced into peace" and said he had formed a new "victory plan" that he planned to present to Pres. Biden imminently. •Zelensky also claimed to have evidence showing that Russia is planning to attack Ukraine's three nuclear plants. Venezuela •An Argentine federal court responded to Venezuela's arrest warrant for Argentina's Pres. Milei by ordering the arrest of Pres. Maduro and his top henchman, Diosdado Cabello, for committing crimes against humanity against dissidents. China •China carried out a successful test of an intercontinental ballistic missile, and - unusually - announced it publicly. •The wording of the defense ministry's announcement was nothing special - it said the missile "fell into expected sea areas" and was merely part of a "routine arrangement in our annual training plan" - but the fact that there was an announcement at all suggests an emboldened missile program (it usually conducts tests quietly deep inside its territory and doesn't comment on their outcomes). •Separately, China announced new stimulus measures and interest rate cuts to boost consumer spending and property investment. The central bank had aimed for 5% GDP growth this year, but that now looks ambitious. Afghanistan •Speaking at an event on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, actress Meryl Streep poetically pointed out: "Today in Kabul a female cat has more freedom than a woman. A cat may go sit on her front stoop and feel the sun on her face, she may chase a squirrel in the park... A squirrel has more rights than a girl in Afghanistan today because the public parks have been closed to women and girls by the Taliban. A bird may sing in Kabul, but a girl may not in public." •A Taliban spokesman responded that his fellow officials in fact "highly respected" women and would "never compare them to cats." Libya •A delegation of assistant and deputy U.S. officials visited Libya to show support for Government of National Unity Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah and his eastern rival, Khalifa Haftar, as the two sides try agree on a resolution to their dispute over the central bank's leadership (and management of oil revenues). •Telegram founder Pavel Durov - who faces French criminal charges for complicity in illegal activity by users of the platform - changed his stance and agreed to cooperate with authorities. •He announced in a new Telegram post that the platform has updated its terms and privacy policy to explicitly disclose that "the IP addresses and phone numbers of those who violate our rules can be disclosed to relevant authorities in response to valid legal requests"
Open source reportOff Leash update 19 Sept Middle East •A day after Israel's trojan horse attack remotely detonated thousands of Hezbollah members' pagers across Lebanon, a follow-on attack remotely detonated hundreds of Hezbollah walkie-talkies. The second round of blasts killed at least 20 and injured over 450 (fewer devices exploded but they were larger devices - and thus larger explosions). •The NYT published a great article describing how Israel pulled off the operation: https://t.co/G8tTPgOKLT. •Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant issued a video statement that didn't specifically mention the Lebanon blasts (which Israel hasn't officially acknowledged - and won't acknowledge), but said the military's focus is "moving north" - i.e., towards Hezbollah. •Israel did, however, acknowledge overnight airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, including a weapons depot near Khaim. •Separately, the UN General Assembly (UNGA) overwhelmingly passed a non-binding resolution calling on Israel to end its occupation of Palestinian territories within 12 months. There are no penalties if Israel ignores the order, but the opprobrium adds to Israel's isolation at UNGA. •The Economist said the UNGA vote also "undermines America's weakening clout" at the UN: the U.S. could only rally 12 other countries to join it and Israel in voting against the resolution. Ukraine and Russia •Geolocated footage showed that Russian troops captured the Donetsk town of Ukrainsk. •While Russia continues to make slow progress in Donetsk, Ukraine is trying to stall the Russian advance at its source by striking military bases and weapons depots before they can deploy to the front lines: a new Ukrainian drone attack in Toropets ignited an arms warehouse with a blast so big that Russian state media said the town of Toropets had to be evacuated. •Vox assessed that Ukraine's targeted strikes inside Russia "are likely meant to send a signal to allies that despite the war grinding on, Ukraine isn’t beaten, and that its allies aren’t backing a lost cause." Venezuela •Venezuela's president-elect - who's now in exile in Spain - said Pres. Maduro's Vice President, Delcy Rodriguez, forced him to sign a letter recognizing Maduro's fraudulent victory after "very tense hours of coercion, blackmail and pressure" before he fled the country. •VP Rodriguez's brother Jorge - who teamed up with his sister to force Gonzalez to sign the letter when they visited him at the Spanish Embassy - presented the letter during a televised press conference yesterday. •Jorge Rodriguez then tried to blackmail Gonzalez into recanting his claim that he was blackmailed into signing the letter by threatening to release an audio recording that Rodriguez says will disprove Gonzalez. •Meanwhile, Maduro's Attorney General, Tarek Saab, instructed prosecutors to issue arrest warrants for Argentina's President Javier Milei, the head of Milei's office (who happens to also be his sister), and Argentina's Security Minister. •Venezuela argues that Argentina illegally seized a Venezuelan Emtrasur Cargo Boeing 747-300FM plane in Aug. 2022 - at the request of the U.S. •Argentine-Venezuelan relations are sour - the plane seizure was just a symptom of their enmity - so Milei is highly unlikely to visit Venezuela and expose himself for arrest. •India's far north, majority-Muslim region of Jammu-Kashmir voted in regional elections for the first time in a decade yesterday. Despite a fresh wave of disruptive militant attacks, local leaders are hopeful that the vote will help the region regain some of the political autonomy it lost when the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party stripped it of its statehood in 2019. •The U.S. Federal Reserve cut its main benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point to 4.75-5.00%. That's a bigger cut than the quarter point the market was expecting, which suggests Fed governors are confident that inflation is under control.
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 Sept Syria •Israel targeted a government research institute in Masyaf, Syria, killing at least 18. •Reuters reported that a team of Iranian scientists was working at the institute, which produces short- and long-range missiles and drones that Iran sends to its proxies, including Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. (The facility also produces chemical weapons that Pres. Assad uses on his own people). Israel •A Jordanian gunman killed three Israeli civilian workers at the Allenby Bridge border crossing. Jordan has a vigilant security service and strong security ties with Israel (though many Jordanians sympathize with their Palestinian neighbors), so attacks like this are rare. This was the first one along the Jordanian-Israeli border since Oct. 7. •Meanwhile, Israel targeted a Hamas command that it said was "disguised in the humanitarian area in Khan Younis," killing at least 40. Hamas said the casualties were displaced civilians and denied hiding militants among them. Venezuela •Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado vowed to stay in Venezuela and "take part in the struggle from here" while the candidate she supported in July's election, Edmundo Gonzalez, supports the cause from exile in Spain. •Gonzalez joins a long list of Venezuelan opposition leaders - and even mere sympathizers - driven into exile. The NYT interviewed five others who served as election observers but fled to exile in Colombia after (rightfully) asking questions about election results. •Those that didn't flee are being rounded up in Pres. Maduro's Operation Knock Knock - a nationwide manhunt for people who attended opposition protests or posted pro-opposition content online. Thousands have been arrested so far. China •Foreign direct investment in China hit a record low of negative $14.8 billion in the second quarter. •Perhaps in response, Communist Party leaders removed two industries - publishing and traditional medicine production - from the list of sectors barring foreign investment. There are still 29 industries on the restricted list. Ukraine •Ukraine launched a significant drone attack on Moscow overnight. Russia acknowledged the attack and closed three of Moscow's four airports to activate air defenses that it claims shot down 144 Ukrainian drones. •Ukraine claimed Moscow also launched a reciprocal drone attack on Kyiv. Mexico •Mexico's upper chamber is weighing a controversial constitutional change that will swap 7,000 judges with new, popularly-elected replacements. •The proposal was easily passed in the lower chamber last week, and there are rumors that enough upper chamber swing legislators have swung in favor of the amendment and are ready to pass it. •AMLO is pitching the change as a much-needed judicial reform, but the plan's myriad critics say it will expose judges to stronger political influence from Morena leaders - or worse, from bad actors like drug cartels. Other News •Fresh off local elections that resulted in big gains for the far right - and smarting from two deadly stabbings committed by rejected asylees - Germany said it would expand border patrols and strengthen a "hard line" on illegal migration. •Separately, Australia's government announced plans to ban children from social media - though it didn't confirm where the age cutoff would be.
Open source reportOff Leash update 26 Aug Coming Up This Week •The U.S. Open tennis tournament starts today in New York, and the Paralympics begin Wednesday in Paris. •Thursday is the 75th anniversary of the first Soviet atomic bomb test - and also the international day against nuclear weapons testing. Three countries - India, Pakistan, and North Korea - have not signed the 1996 Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty prohibiting testing, and five - China, Egypt, Iran, Israel, and the U.S. - have signed but not ratified it. •Sunday is the 85th anniversary of the start of World War II. •Azerbaijan and Germany both hold parliamentary elections on Sunday. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,542/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $24,500/ton •Cobalt: $24,300/ton •Copper: $9,289/ton •Gold: $2,512/toz •Lead: $2,117/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.02/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $74.83/barrel •Zinc: $2,912/ton Israel and Gaza •Hamas sent a delegation to peace talks in Cairo, but they left early after rejecting Israel's demand for an ongoing Israeli presence in the Philadelphi Corridor. •Meanwhile in the north, Israel and Hezbollah exchanged much heavier gunfire than usual, briefly raising concerns about a broader regional war. Then both sides abruptly pulled back after proving what seemed like symbolic points. •Hezbollah called its strikes a "complete success" and Israel also seemed satisfied that its "pre-emptive" strikes succeeded in weakening Hezbollah's barrage. Venezuela •The EU issued a gently-worded condemnation of Pres. Maduro's election theft, calling on Venezuela's National Electoral Council (CNE) to release official voting records (or actas), and pointing out that - given currently publicly-available actas - "Edmundo González Urrutia would appear to be the winner of the presidential election by a significant majority." •Maduro and the CNE have ignored much more strongly-worded critiques than that, so the EU's diplomatic comments are unlikely to change their thinking. Sudan •Sudan's junta leader, Gen. Abdel Fatah Al Burhan, vowed to "fight for 100 years." •His side didn't show up to peace talks in Geneva, which ended on Friday without a deal. However, army representatives participated by phone, and the two sides were able to make some minor progress on improving aid flows. Russia •The U.S. slapped sanctions on 63 Russian, 42 Chinese, and 18 third-country firms for supporting Russia's war in Ukraine. Some of the targeted firms helped send U.S. military and dual-use technology to Russia, while others helped supply Russia with parts to make other military kit and weapons, including Shahed-136 drones. •Four prisoners claiming allegiance to Islamic State laid seige to a prison in Volgograd (southern Russia), killing four prison guards and taking 12 people - eight guards and four fellow inmates - hostage before snipers "liquidated" the hostage-takers. Ukraine •Ukraine traded 115 of the Russian prisoners it took in Kursk for 115 Ukrainian prisoners of war. •It was the first prisoner swap since Ukraine began its Kursk incursion. A Washington Post analysis concluded that Ukraine has captured at least another 132 Russian prisoners in Kursk that it could trade in a future swap; most seem to be new conscripts with little fighting experience. •Russia launched a massive wave of drone attacks on Kyiv and northwestern Ukraine this morning, targeting infrastructure. Air defenses are active, but imperfect: the Russian strikes damaged at least one building in Lutsk and caused widespread power and water outages in several areas. •Separately, a Russian Iskander-M missile struck a hotel in Donetsk housing journalists, killing one British safety advisor for Reuters and injuring six others - including three more foreigners. 1/
Open source reportOff Leash update 2 August Russia •After months of complex negotiations, Russia released sixteen prisoners - including wrongfully detained WSJ journalist Evan Gershkovich and former U.S. Marine Paul Whelan - in a swap that also saw Western countries release eight Russian prisoners - including very rightfully detained Russian assassin Vadim Krasikov, who was imprisoned in Germany for murdering a Chechen leader there. •The NYT noted that Pres. Putin "can use [Krasikov's release] to highlight his loyalty to Russian agents who get arrested abroad." Some analysts suggested he'll also use Krasikov to train new recruited hitmen to better evade capture. Ukraine •Ukraine received its first F-16 fighter jets on Wednesday - just before an end of month deadline for the initial transfer. These first jets came from Denmark and the Netherlands; it's not clear how many were in this first wave. Venezuela •U.S. SecState Blinken formally recognized Edmundo González as the winner of last week's disputed election in Venezuela, saying that "it is clear to the United States and, most importantly, to the Venezuelan people that Edmundo González Urrutia won the most votes in Venezuela’s July 28 presidential election." •Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado told the WSJ she's currently in hiding and "fearing for my life, my freedom" after Maduro allies called for her arrest and that of González, who ran in her place after she was barred from the ballot. North Korea •North Korea reported extensive damage from flooding in its northern regions bordering China. •Brushing off the recent swarms of "trash balloons" the North has floated over their shared border, South Korea offered to send humanitarian aid north to its bitter foe. If Kim Jong Un accepts the South's aid, it could lead to the first official talks between them in years. Israel •The NYT published new details on Israel's assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Apparently the explosive device that killed Haniyeh was smuggled into the guesthouse where he was killed months ago. •The blast was so targeted that it killed only Haniyeh and his bodyguard, and Ziyad al-Nakhalah - the leader of Palestinian Islamic Jihad who was sleeping next door - was unscathed with very little damage to his room. •Meanwhile, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah spoke at the funeral of a Hezbollah commander killed in another recent Israeli strike - this one in Beirut on Tuesday, just before the blast that killed Haniyeh in Tehran. •Nasrallah exercised restraint by not calling for prompt retaliation (as Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei did after the Tehran blast). Rather, he vaguely mentioned that the conflict with Israel had entered a "new phase" and warned Israel ominously but non-committally "You do not realize the red lines you have crossed." Hezbollah lobbed a few more rockets over the border. DRC •Ex-Pres. Kabila's wife, Olive Lembe Kabila, said that dozens of youth - reportedly linked to a militia with ties to the ruling Union for Democracy and Social Progress party - tried to break into their family home "to physically eliminate me" on Wednesday. •Mrs. Kabila blamed Tshisekedi and his government for relaxing security around their home to allow construction trucks to pass by. •There were also reports of heavy gunfire near important buildings like the Palais de la Nation, which houses Pres. Tshisekedi's offices, but those seem unrelated.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 30 July Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,289/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $23,100/ton •Cobalt: $26,625/ton •Copper: $9,111/ton •Gold: $2,374/toz •Lead: $2,068/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $1.94/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $75.86/barrel •Zinc: $2,669/ton Venezuela •Pres. Maduro declared victory in yesterday's election. So did his opposition opponent, Edmundo González. •This time, Maduro claimed just 51.2% of the vote - just enough to avoid a runoff, but (Maduro probably hopes) not egregiously incredible enough to spark a revolution. •Many would-be observers boycotted the poll because Maduro tainted it from the start by bullying the opposition ( @MariaCorinaYA ) out of a fair race. And the few observers who participated cited widespread irregularities. •Electoral authorities also prevented the public from fact-checking its count by refusing to release paper tallies printed by voting machines at key polling places. Israel •On Saturday, a Hezbollah rocket killed at least 12 kids and teens on a soccer (football) field in the Golan Heights, a sliver of Syria that Israel occupied in 1967 and annexed in 1981. •Israel's security cabinet authorized PM Netanyahu to decide on the "manner and timing" of a response - likely involving counterstrikes in Lebanon. •One such counterstrike already took place: an Israeli drone strike killed two people and wounded three - including a child - in the southern Lebanese town of Shaqra. China •SecState Blinken criticized China's "escalating" and "unlawful actions" in the South China Sea during a trip to Laos - where he will meet Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. •Blinken will also visit Vietnam, Japan, and the Philippines in an effort to befriend Southeast Asian countries that are feeling threatened by an increasingly bellicose China. North Korea •Saturday was North Korea's Victory Day - commemorating the 70th anniversary of the truce that paused (but didn't end) the Korean War. •Kim Jong Un invited a special guest for the occasion: Russian Defense Minister Shoigu. His presence at the Victory Day festivities serves as a reminder of the increasingly close ties between Russia and North Korea, which were further solidified by Pres. Putin's second visit to the Hermit Kingdom last month. Sahel •Tuareg separatists engaged Malian soldiers backed by Russian Wagner troops near Mali's border with Algeria and - according to the Tuaregs - "decisively obliterated these enemy columns" over three days of fighting. •The Tuareg have been fighting for independence since 2012, but they started this latest round of fighting in response to recent military offensives that recaptured formerly rebel-held territory. •The rebels say they seized "a large amount of equipment and weapons" and took "dozens" of Wagner fighters captive. •The Malian army says two soldiers died and also acknowledged losing a helicopter in another nearby rebel stronghold, but said nothing about Wagner involvement in the fighting...officially, Wagner personnel are only in Mali to train local troops and shouldn't be fighting alongside their "trainees." Libya •Libya convicted 12 current and former officials for their negligence in managing dams near Derna that collapsed last year, killing at least 4,300 - and possibly over 12,000. Several were ordered to repay funds obtained through "illicit means," suggesting that the court blamed their misdeeds (at least in part) on corruption. Other News •French authorities are blaming the far-left for last week's organized attacks on French train lines. Today they arrested a far-left activist in Normandy in connection with the incidents. •Meanwhile, a new coordinated infrastructure attack affected fiberoptic telecom networks throughout France (though Paris was not affected).
Open source reportOff Leash Update 5 July Iran •Analysts are struggling to predict the outcome of today's runoff presidential election in Iran. •On one hand, conservatives have consolidated their support behind hardline candidate Saeed Jalili. •But on the other, many moderates who fear the consequences of a hardline president are turning out to support Jalili's reformist rival, Dr. Masoud Pezeshkian. •Turnout for today's runoff seems much higher than the record low level of 40% set in the first round. Mozambique •The South African Development Community (SADC) announced the end of its peacekeeping mission in Cabo Delgado. •The three-year mission achieved mixed results: it initially succeeded in reducing the capacity of militant groups to carry out attacks and making the region safe for displaced residents to return home, but the pace of attacks began to rise again in late 2023, causing renewed displacement. •The SADC mission also failed to fulfill its mandate to train Mozambican security forces because it couldn't identify what kind of training the local forces needed. •Those questionably-trained Mozambican security forces will now take over responsibility for the region's security from the withdrawing SADC mission. DRC •A DRC military court sentenced 25 soldiers to death for "fleeing the enemy, dissipating munitions of war and violating orders" after running away from a battle with M23 rebels. •While Congolese soldiers are fleeing the fight, the better-disciplined (and Rwanda-backed) M23 has been able to gain the upper hand and capture several strategic towns in recent weeks. Sahel •Junta leaders from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger will meet for the first-ever "Alliance of Sahel States" (AES, en français) summit in Niamey this weekend. •The AES countries have a lot to talk about: all three were booted from the regional ECOWAS bloc because of their coups, so they're now hoping to replace the economic and defense benefits it enjoyed from that alliance by forming a parallel bloc. •They even timed their first AES summit to coincide with ECOWAS's next meeting, which takes place in Abuja on Sunday. •Separately, U.S. troops will complete their withdrawal from Niamey Air Base 101 on Sunday. The remaining U.S. troops in Niger will withdraw - per the junta's demand - by September 15. Gaza and Israel •U.S. and Israeli officials renewed whispers of hope for a ceasefire deal with Hamas after a "breakthrough" in talks. However, even optimistic U.S. officials conceded there are still some major obstacles standing in the way of a truce. •Meanwhile farther north, Israel killed a Hezbollah commander in a drone strike, and Hezbollah retaliated by firing a volley of rockets into Israel as an "initial response." Other News •Disgruntled British voters overthrew the Conservative party after a 14-year reign. Former human rights lawyer Keir Starmer will be the new Prime Minister. •Former PM Liz Truss - who was PM for exactly as many days as David Blaine lived in a glass box suspended over the Thames River - was one of the senior Tory MPs who lost her seat.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 24 June Coming Up This Week •WSJ journalist Evan Gershkovich will go on trial in Yekaterinburg, Russia on trumped-up espionage charges starting Wednesday. The media will be locked out of the trial, which could last between four months and one year. •Iran will vote for a successor to late president Raisi on Friday. The clerics have blocked most reformist candidates from running...which could backfire and split conservative support between five hardline candidates, leaving the sole moderate candidate allowed on the ballot - Masoud Pezeshkian - with a greater share of the vote than he would've otherwise received (he's still unlikely to win - and even if he wins, unlikely to effect change from the mostly-symbolic presidency). •On Saturday, the UN will hold a conference on Afghanistan in Qatar, and the Taliban will attend for the first time. To the dismay of some rights campaigners, the UN dropped all the preconditions that deterred the Taliban from attending the two previous UN conferences on Afghanistan - like including women's rights on the agenda - to encourage Taliban participation. •The first round of France's snap parliamentary election will also take place on Saturday. Polls predict strong support for the far-right Rassemblement National. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,514/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $22,900/ton •Cobalt: $27,150/ton •Copper: $9,683/ton •Gold: $2,332/toz •Lead: $2,191/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.70/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $80.87/barrel •Zinc: $2,844/ton Russia •Gunmen carried out several coordinated attacks on churches, synogogues, and police stations in two cities in the restive, majority-Muslim Russian region of Dagestan. •Russian authorities said the attackers were "adherents of an international terrorist organization," and their tactics and high degree of coordination recall Islamic State-Khorasan's (IS-K's) attack on Crocus Hall three months ago, but no group - including IS-K - has claimed the Dagestan attacks yet. •Pres. Putin prefers to brush ethnic and religious tensions under the rug to preserve pro-Russia harmony, so these latest attacks will be another annoyance for him. Some pro-Putin politicians are already blaming the West (without evidence) for inciting them. Ukraine •Russian authorities also blamed the U.S. for supplying the ATACMS missiles they say Ukraine used in a strike on Crimea that ended up killing at least four civilians on a crowded beach in Crimea yesterday. •[To be clear, Ukraine didn't target a crowded beach: Russia intercepted missiles headed for military targets (which Russia says the U.S. helped identify) as they flew over a crowded beach, causing fragments to fall on beachgoers below.] Gaza •Prime Minister Netanyahu told an interviewer that Israel's current ground offensive in southern Gaza is "about to end," and suggested that he could redeploy some of the troops fighting there to the north to intimidate - and perhaps eventually fight - Hezbollah. •Meanwhile, Israel's Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, is in Washington this week to lobby for continued U.S. support for Israel. Afghanistan •Nicaragua appointed a "non-resident" ambassador to Afghanistan, but stopped short of officially recognizing the Taliban government. The new envoy, Michael Campbell, is also Nicaragua's ambassador to China, and will serve both roles from his office in Beijing. •Afghanistan scored a surprise upset against Australia in the T20 Cricket World Cup on Saturday. I don't understand anything about cricket or how it's scored, but I can tell from the media's gushing reports that Afghanistan's "148/6 (20)" was an impressive win over the reigning champion's "127 (19.2)". Afghanistan plays Bangladesh tomorrow and could still make the semi-finals. Energy in Africa •Guinea-Conakry's junta signed a memorandum of understanding with Russia's Rosatom for an ambitious project to build a floating nuclear power plant.
Open source reportOff Leash update 18 June Russia •Russia's Pres. Putin began an unannounced two-day trip to North Korea today. He's hoping to strengthen his friendship with one of the few world leaders still willing to send him weapons, and Kim Jong Un is hoping Putin will lend Russian assistance to North Korea's nascent satellite surveillance programs. •Both Russia and North Korea deny that they are arms trading, but Putin proclaimed that they are building "alternative mechanisms of trade" that aren't "controlled by the West" (i.e., subject to sanctions). •This was Putin's second trip to North Korea. His first - in 2000 - was the first time a Russian president visited the Hermit Kingdom. North Korea •While strengthening ties with Putin's Russia, Kim has been aggravating tensions with his southern neighbor. South Korean officials say North Korean soldiers have been laying mines and installing anti-tank barriers along the demilitarized border that divides the two Koreas since January. •South Korea reported firing warning shots earlier today to repel 20-30 North Korean soldiers who temporarily crossed over the border while building a barrier. Their incursion seemed accidental and they did not return fire. China •China opened an anti-dumping investigation into EU pork imports that analysts widely see as a retaliation for the EU's new tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs). •Beijing is likely targeting EU pork instead of a perfectly reciprocal levy on EU EVs because a tariff on EU-made EVs would also harm the Chinese brands making cars in Europe. •Meanwhile, the U.S. sided with the Philippines in its latest spat with China over Chinese bullying in the South China Sea. The U.S. called China "aggressive" for seizing two Philippine supply boats after colliding with a third one, and U.S. diplomats reiterated a warning that a 1951 treaty obligates the U.S. to defend the Philippines in case of an armed attack. Ukraine •A Ukrainian drone targeted one of Russia's two oil terminals in the southern port city of Azov, igniting a large fire. Hezbollah •While SecState Blinken tries to keep hope for an Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal alive, another senior U.S. envoy - White House adviser Amos Hochstein - is visiting Lebanon to lobby for an agreement between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah to end their cycle of tit-for-tack strikes over the border. •Hezbollah has linked its strikes to Israel's war in Gaza, so it would be unlikely to agree to a truce before the Gaza war ends.
Open source reportOff Leash update 12 June Hezbollah •An Israeli strike in southern Lebanon killed four Hezbollah commanders, including a very senior one, Taleb Abdallah (aka Abu Taleb). Hezbollah then retaliated by firing a barrage of around 150 rockets into northern Israel. •The NYT assessed that Israel's strikes in Lebanon are designed to push Hezbollah back across the Litani river so that its rockets are farther out of striking range - and so that over 150,000 displaced civilians can eventually populate a buffer zone at the border. Gaza •Hamas submitted a formal response to the U.S.-pitched (but Israeli-originated) ceasefire proposal, and SecState Blinken - who has been shuttling around the Middle East trying to rally support for the plan - exasperatedly acknowledged that some of the changes Hamas demanded in its response were not "workable." •Hamas and a smaller Gazan militant group aligned with Hamas (Palestinian Islamic Jihad) said they were prepared to "deal positively to arrive at an agreement," but Blinken's unmasked disappointment with Hamas's response suggests there's still a big gap between the two sides. •Israel hasn't formally accepted the proposal either, but SecState Blinken said PM Netanyahu had privately "reaffirmed his commitment to the proposal" on Monday. Netanyahu prefers to stall and see if Hamas kills the proposal first - rather than risk losing his right-wing coalition partners by signing a deal Hamas won't accept anyway. •Separately, an independent UN investigation found both Israel and Hamas guilty of committing war crimes, and additionally accused Israel of crimes against humanity for killing tens of thousands of civilians (who Hamas militants are using as human shields). Israel responded to the report by accusing its authors of "systematic anti-Israel discrimination." Ukraine •Ukraine used replenished stocks of anti-aircraft missiles to intercept 29 of the 30 incoming missiles and drones Russia fired across the border overnight. That's a much better success rate than Ukraine was able to achieve when it had to ration dwindling air defense supplies. •Pres. Zelensky boasted that this high success rate could be a "daily achievement" if Western partners send more air defense supplies. •On that note, the U.S. said it would send Ukraine a second Patriot missile system. This one will come from Poland after the U.S. troops it's currently protecting there rotate back home in the coming weeks. Haiti •Haiti's new interim prime minister, Garry Conille, appointed a new cabinet, ousting most of the ministers from former PM Henry's ineffective government. South Africa •Former president Zuma's upstart uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party is seeking to spoil the election in which his former African National Congress (ANC) party lost its majority. •MK filed formal objections alleging widespread irregularities in the poll - without offering any evidence to support its claim - and filed legal papers to block the ANC from convening its first parliamentary session on Friday. •Zuma's appeals are unlikely to reverse election results, but they may hinder the ANC's progress forming a national unity government. That may be Zuma's real goal anyway: Zuma despises his successor and bitter rival, Pres. Ramaphosa, and would be pleased to see the ANC struggle to re-elect Ramaphosa. Other News •Malawi's president confirmed that his vice president, Saulos Chilima, was killed in a plane crash along with nine others. The crash was attributed to bad weather. •A fire broke out in a dilapidated and overcrowded building housing migrant workers in southern Kuwait, killing at least 41. Deputy PM Sheikh Fahad Yusuf Saud Al-Sabah criticized "the greed of real estate owners" who chose to skimp on proper maintenance and safety measures.
Open source reportOff Leash update 24 April Iran and Israel •Israeli officials told the NYT they contemplated a broader strike on Iran in return for Iran's (mostly harmlessly intercepted) attempted strikes inside Israel, but settled for a limited strike on Isfahan because of diplomatic pressure from allies to avoid further escalation. •Iran's Ayatollah Khamenei seemed happy to let Israel have the last word with the Isfahan strike: at a meeting of senior officials, Khamenei brushed off the damage it did: "Debates by the other party about how many missiles were fired, how many of them hit the target and how many didn’t, these are of secondary importance." •Meanwhile, Iran's proxy in Lebanon, Hezbollah, launched drone attacks into northern Israel yesterday as Jewish families began the Passover holiday. All drones were intercepted. •Hezbollah's attempted Passover attack was probably a reprisal for an Israeli strike in southern Lebanon that killed Hussein Ali Azkul - who Israel called "a significant terrorist operative" - on Monday. Ukraine •Pres. Biden promised Pres. Zelensky that the U.S. weapons funded in the Ukraine/Israel/Taiwan support bill the Senate approved late last night will arrive "quickly." Ukraine will be eager to get them: its military is already suffering setbacks due to delays in U.S. funding. China •The Senate's foreign aid package for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan also included a provision obligating ByteDance - the Chinese company that owns TikTok - to sell the app to a non-Chinese owner or shut it down in the U.S. •ByteDance's shareholders - which include the Chinese government - seem averse to divesting the app, so it will likely face a ban. Russia •Russian investigators detained former deputy defense minister Timur Ivanov on suspicion of taking bribes "on a particularly large scale" in connection with construction projects he managed in Mariupol, Ukraine. •Russia doesn't usually censure senior officials for corruption [perhaps because bribery is so endemic among senior ranks that no hands are clean enough to throw the first stone] and Ivanov is a close ally of powerful defense minister Sergey Shoigu, who should have been able to shield him from scrutiny. •The fact that Shoigu didn't step in led some to speculate that Ivanov's real offense was something much more grave than graft - like treason (though the Kremlin denied it). Venezuela •Venezuela's oil minister, Pedro Tellechea, told Reuters that his ministry is exploring cryptocurrencies as a way to receive payments for oil sales once U.S. sanctions sink back in. •One cryptocurrency that Venezuela won't be accepting is the Petro (PTR): Pres. Maduro's Patria Platform gave up on that idea earlier this year after a corruption scandal. North Korea •North Korea launched more short-range ballistic missiles into the sea on Monday, and analysts are guessing it could try to launch a satellite into orbit tomorrow on the anniversary of the founding of the Korean People's Army. Other News •After two years of heated debate, the UK's parliament finally passed a bill that allows asylum-seekers to be deported to Rwanda. Human rights activists are united with some fiscal conservatives against the program, which would cost an estimated £1.8 million ($2.2 million) per deportee for the first 300 people expelled. Flights would start in July, but will probably be delayed or blocked by legal challenges. •Voters in Ecuador approved a referendum that gives Pres. Noboa even more authority to fight drug gangs. Noboa has already taken a hard stance against the gangs - he deployed the military against them in January - and voters apparently support it: nine of its 11 proposals look likely to pass once all votes are counted.
Open source reportOff Leash update 17 April Middle East •Israel's war cabinet met for a second time yesterday, but adjourned without finalizing a plan to respond to Iran's drone and missile attack over the weekend - and postponed a third meeting that was set for today. The head of its army pledged Iran's attack would "be met with a response," though. •Israel has several options on the table, but all come with risks. The war cabinet is reportedly considering another strike in a third country (like the one in Damascus that started this tit-for-tat), a cyberstrike on Iranian infrastructure, and a strike on a symbolic target in Iran. The Economist pointed out Israel is unlikely to retaliate this week ahead of the Passover holiday next week. •The U.S. and EU are working on fresh sanctions on Iran's missile and drone programs, and both Western countries and Arab states are encouraging Israel to respond by "isolating Iran" (in Pres. Macron's words) instead of striking it back - though that idea is unpalatable in Israel, where hardliners are pushing for harsher revenge. •Separately, both Hezbollah and the Israeli army confirmed that an Israeli drone strike killed another Hezbollah commander in southern Lebanon, and Hezbollah drones targeted an Iron Dome battery in northern Israel, causing three minor injuries. China •New data showed that China's real GDP grew 1.6% in Q1 2024 vs. Q4 2023, and 5.3% year on year - thanks in part to a new focus on exporting goods to make up for weak domestic spending. That surge in cheap Chinese exports is putting pressure on local manufacturers in the countries receiving them, causing leaders like Germany's Chancellor Scholz to complain to Chinese officials about the flood of exports. •China's nominal GDP grew by less than its real GDP - 4.2% year on year - indicating that prices shrank 1.1%. China hasn't seen deflation since 1999, and economists say its emergence now is evidence of a lopsided economic recovery based on exports rather than internal growth. •A Chinese marathoner, He Jie, won Sunday's Beijing Half Marathon...but only after three African runners who were leading the race waved him through right before the finish line and then finished behind him in a three-way tie for second. Race organizers are investigating the peculiar camaraderie. Venezuela •Venezuela arrested two more senior energy officials as part of an investigation into billions of dollars that went missing in a crypto fraud at state oil company PDVSA. The arrest of these two vice ministers follows last week's arrest of former oil minister - and close Maduro ally - Tarek el Aissami. •Separately, Venezuela also arrested a well-known activist accused of plotting to assassinate Pres. Maduro. Caracas has been arresting activists and dissidents for political reasons ahead of July's election, so it's not clear whether there was actually an assassination attempt involved - this could have been another politically-motivated arrest. Other News •Dubai got two years' worth of rain - 6.3" or 16 cm - in 24 hours between Monday night and last night, leading to flooding and flight diversions. It's illegal to criticize the government in the UAE, so locals who told the AP of "absolute carnage" in the floods did so anonymously.
Open source reportOff Leash update 8 April Yesterday marked the 30-year anniversary of the start of Rwanda's 100-day genocide. President Kagame - who is running for re-election in July - commemorated the occasion with a ceremony celebrating the country's progress under his leadership since then. A total solar eclipse will cross the U.S. from Texas to Maine this afternoon. A map here shows the total eclipse path and partial eclipse gradients. Pres. Biden is hosting a trilateral summit with Japan's PM Kashido and Pres. Marcos Jr. of the Philippines Wednesday. They're expected to discuss maritime cooperation to counter China's influence in the South China Sea. South Korea votes in parliamentary elections on Wednesday. Pres. Yoon isn't up for election, but his party's performance in the vote will be a sign of his own popularity. Commodity Prices Aluminum: $2,451/ton Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $13,450/ton Cobalt: $28,550/ton Copper: $9,330/ton Gold: $2,339/toz Lead: $2,124/ton Natural Gas (Nymex): $1.79/MMbtu WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $86.31/barrel Zinc: $2,639/ton Gaza Israel said it withdrew a division of ground troops from Khan Younis and southern Gaza "to recuperate and prepare for future operations," and Palestinians returned to the rubbled city. Some analysts suggested that the "future operations" part could portend a ground invasion of Rafah, which Israel has been planning for months. Meanwhile, Israel carried out another airstrike in southern Lebanon, killing the commander of Hezbollah's Radwan Brigade, which Israel blames for firing rockets into its northern villages. Separately, the International Court of Justice began hearing Nicaragua's case against Germany over German military and financial aid for Israel. Nicaragua argues that Germany's support has "contributed to the commission of genocide" in Gaza. Finally, Egypt's Al Qahera reported cautious optimism that Israel and Hamas had agreed on basic points in their ongoing ceasefire talks in Cairo. However, Hamas corrected that report by saying talks were still stalled. Iran U.S. officials expect Iran to launch a "significant" retaliatory attack in revenge for Israel's strike that killed seven Iranian military officers in Damascus. Some suggested Iran could strike either within Israel or against U.S. or Israeli facilities (like embassies) in other countries. To me, a direct strike on Israel seems unlikely, since it would be a disproportionate and dangerous escalation that Israel would force Israel to respond similarly. It also seems unlikely that Iran would pull the U.S. into the fray with an attack on a U.S. facility. Pres. Raisi's chief of staff even wrote to Washington warning the U.S. to "step aside" and avoid involvement so it doesn't "get dragged into Netanyahu's trap." It's more likely that Iran will find a way to retaliate with a limited and targeted operation against a specific Israeli target that placates its hardliners who are demanding action but avoids angering Israel into re-retaliating. Ukraine The International Atomic Energy Agency said Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station - which has been under Russian control since Feb. 2022 - sustained damage yesterday from drone attacks that damaged its reactor and killed one person. Russia accused Ukraine of "nuclear terrorism," but Ukraine insists it wasn't involved and instead suggested Russia was responsible - though it's unclear why Russia would strike a nuclear plant it controls. Ecuador stormed the Mexican Embassy in Quito to arrest Jorge Glas, a former Ecuadorian vice president who took refuge in the compound in December to avoid a prison sentence for corruption. Mexico was offended by the affront and promptly cut diplomatic ties with Ecuador. NYT analysts pointed out that Ecuadorian president Daniel Noboa likely calculated that arresting Glas would boost his sagging approval ratings ahead of an election next year.
Open source report