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76 direct mentions across 76 briefings, with 84 linked developments.
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Iran interprets the interim memorandum as requiring Israel to end its war against Hezbollah and withdraw from Lebanon, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insists withdrawal will not occur until Hezbollah is eliminated.
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Iran interprets the interim memorandum as requiring Israel to end its war against Hezbollah and withdraw from Lebanon, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insists withdrawal will not occur until Hezbollah is eliminated.
Open source reportGeography
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Benjamin Netanyahu dossier
55 mapped developments across 8 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Jerusalem
Tens of thousands protested Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s handling of the war, demanding his resignation and new elections, with demonstrations expected to continue through Wednesday.
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Chronology
Off Leash update 1 July 2026 IRAN •Iran's speaker of parliament asserted that his government will not engage the U.S. in negotiations towards a final peace deal until all terms of the interim memorandum of understanding are met, and warned that Iran is "prepared for war" if its conditions are not met. •That's a problem, since one of the terms of the MoU - at least in Iran's reading of it - requires Israel to end its war against Hezbollah and withdraw from Lebanon - something that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu insists won't happen until Hezbollah "is eliminated." CHINA •The European Union ended its duty-free exemption for low-value imports and introduced a €3 ($3.4) levy on imported packages valued under €150. •The new fee is aimed at dirt-cheap Chinese importers like Temu and Shein, whose offers of absurdly low prices and free shipping have stolen market share from European rivals. The U.S. ended a similar exemption on duties for imports worth less than $800 last year. AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN •Afghanistan retaliated against Pakistan's airstrikes over the weekend with "air strikes" of its own on Pakistan's Balochistan province. •Pakistan said it shot down four primitive Afghan drones and reported no serious damage or casualties, but warned its neighbor that any new strikes "would receive a befitting response." •Russia urged the warring neighbors to "end the armed conflict and resolve disputed issues through political and diplomatic means" - which is perhaps something Russia has heard itself. SOUTH AFRICA •Thousands of South Africans marched in anti-migrant protests yesterday, but the demonstrations didn't get as unruly as some had feared. •That's likely partly because security forces were prepared for unrest and quelled flare-ups quickly. It also probably helped that an estimated 25,000 undocumented migrants heeded the agitators' calls to leave before yesterday's deadline. •Still, the anti-immigrant groups behind the protests are unlikely to be satisfied by the pace of repatriations and will likely continue to (largely unfairly) blame immigrants for South Africa's woes as long as unemployment remains high.
Open source reportOff Leash update 22 June 2026 COMING UP THIS WEEK •Tomorrow is the 10th anniversary of the UK's vote to leave the European Union. Economists estimate that Brexit lowered UK per capita GDP by at least 2.5% - and perhaps as much as 8.0% - without the drastic deregulation that free market Brexiteers promised would compensate for the output shortfall. Only 11% of Britons now say Brexit has made their lives better, while 43% say their lives are now worse for leaving the EU. •The World Economic Forum hosts its 17th Annual Meeting of the New Champions (aka "Summer Davos") in Dalian, China tomorrow through Thursday. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,397/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $34,397/ton •Bitcoin: $64,062 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $13,595/ton •Ethereum: $1,746 •Gold: $4,197/toz •Lead: $1,954/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.33/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $75.31/barrel •Zinc: $3,557/ton IRAN •After a brief posturing delay, U.S. and Iranian negotiators sat down in Switzerland for the first day of talks towards a lasting peace deal. •The discussions ran late into the night, and Qatari and Pakistani mediators said the two sides had made "encouraging progress" on persistent sore points like reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending Israel's war in Lebanon, but it seemed like that progress was limited to agreeing on how to talk about the touchy topics - not actually resolving any big differences. LEBANON •Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is trying to thread the needle between his hardline coalition partners - who want Israeli forces to keep striking Lebanon until the very last Hezbollah militant is dead - and Pres. Trump's pressure to end the war in Lebanon for the sake of a U.S.-Iran peace deal that Netanyahu despises. •At Trump's behest, Netanyahu agreed to restrict Israel's military to defensive actions in Lebanon, and the fragile detente appears to be holding - for now. No new strikes have been reported since the order. •That said, hawkish Israeli officials like Defense Minister Israel Katz are already stress-testing the truce by arguing that essentially all Israeli operations in Lebanon are - and always were - defensive in nature. UK •Embattled British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer finally gave in to rising calls for him to quit and tendered his resignation as the leader of the UK's Labour Party - and thus (in September) as PM. •Starmer's resignation kicks off the process to elect a new party leader, starting with a nomination period opening July 9. Labour's new leader will be named by the time parliament returns in September, at which point Starmer will hand the PM role over to his successor. •Former Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham has emerged as a leading contender to lead the Labour party, and his election to parliament last week makes him eligible to run. COLOMBIA •Conservative candidate Abelardo De La Espriella won Colombia's presidential election yesterday, with a razor-thin margin of just 1% over leftist continuity candidate Iván Cepeda. •De La Esprialla is a criminal defense lawyer with no previous political experience. That probably endeared him to Colombian voters feeling dissatisfied with incumbent leftist President Gustavo Petro's achievements.
Open source reportOff Leash update 16 June 2026 IRAN •Vice President Vance revealed that he, Pres. Trump, and Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf have already e-signed the memorandum of understanding (MoU) agreed to over the weekend. They still plan to sign the real thing on Friday in Geneva before kicking off mediated talks about the next phase of the deal, which is the 60-day period for finalizing a more detailed final agreement including limits on Iran's nuclear programs. •We still don't know what exactly is in the 14-point MoU. That worries some U.S. officials, including Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), who said he is "somewhat concerned that Iran's view of the agreement seems different than what the American negotiating team is claiming." Graham called for the release of the MoU's full text. •U.S. intelligence officials are similarly concerned that Iran's leaders won't be as agreeable in the thornier next phase of negotiations as they were in the course of negotiating this (fairly toothless) MoU. Their misgivings stem from intelligence showing that Iranian officials speak much more critically about the deal and their obligations under it when they discuss it amongst themselves than they do in front of mediators or media. ISRAEL •Even if U.S.-Iran negotiations on a final deal go smoothly, there's a risk that Israel could scupper the truce if it fails to comply with what Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says is a condition of Iran's agreement to a deal: Israel's full withdrawal from Lebanon, including the south. •Yesterday, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu defiantly vowed to keep forces in southern Lebanon "for as long as necessary." •Netanyahu is stuck in a quandary of his own making. He staked his political future on a hardline security policy focused on confronting Iran, and is now being asked by his country's only real ally - the U.S. - to back down, leaving Iran's regime in an arguably stronger position than it was pre-war. •He seems to be gambling that Iran will be willing to overlook a continued Israeli presence in Lebanon and won't scrap the U.S. peace deal over it. But he also seems to have calculated that the peace deal wouldn't survive an escalation in Israeli strikes on Iran and its proxies. •Netanyahu reportedly called off what Maj. Gen. Omer Tischler called a "broad strike sortie" on hundreds of Iranian targets last week - just one hour before the jets were due to take off, and after Netanyahu's tense phone call with Pres. Trump, in which Trump warned him against escalation. UKRAINE •G7 leaders met for a working session on Ukraine yesterday. Pres. Trump expressed hope that "maybe we could do something" about the war during the session, but the summit achieved no breakthroughs. •Pres. Zelensky, who also attended the G7 meeting, claimed that he proposed peace talks with Russia but Pres. Putin was "not ready." •Separately, the European Union (EU) formally launched the first stage of accession negotiations with Ukraine. •The process was delayed for two years because of former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's opposition to Ukrainian accession. •Orban's successor, Peter Magyar, still has concerns about how Kyiv treats its ethnic Hungarian minority, but he gave the green light for accession talks to proceed in exchange for Ukraine's commitment to strengthen ethnic Hungarians' rights. •Hungary's Magyar suggested it could take over a decade for Ukraine to achieve full EU member status. That's likely an overestimate, but - given glacial EU bureaucracy - it seems more realistic than the EU's hyperambitious target of welcoming Ukraine into the bloc as early as 2027.
Open source reportOff Leash update 9 June 2026 COMING UP THIS WEEK •Apple's annual Worldwide Developers' Conference (WWDC) kicked off yesterday. This is Tim Cook's last WWDC as CEO of Apple; investors will want to hear what the company is doing to catch up to its tech rivals' advancements in artificial intelligence. •Yesterday was World Oceans Day, which Mercator Ocean International commemorated by releasing its annual Starfish Barometer report on ocean health. This year's report found that sea levels rose by an average of 4.2 mm per year between 2012 and 2025 - almost double the rate of the previous decade. •China's Pres. Xi wraps up a two-day visit to North Korea today. The fact that Xi is visiting Kim Jong Un - and not the other way around - exemplifies the geopolitical clout Kim has achieved by forging stronger ties with Russia over Ukraine: Kim is no longer solely dependent on China, and Xi needs to treat Kim more like an equal than he did before Kim cozied up to Pres. Putin. •The FIFA Men's World Cup kicks off Thursday with a match between South Africa and co-host Mexico. Games will be played at various locations in Canada, Mexico, and the U.S., culminating in a July 19 final expected to take place at MetLife Stadium outside of New York City. •The NBA finals are also taking place this week. After last night's game, the New York Knicks are leading the San Antonio Spurs 2-1. The next games will be played tomorrow and Saturday, with additional games slated for next Tuesday and Friday if neither team has reached the four wins they need to take the series. It's the first time in 27 years that the Knicks have reached the finals. •The 94th edition of the 24 Hours of Le Mans endurance race takes place Saturday to Sunday in northwest France. •Pres. Trump turns 80 on Sunday and will (unofficially) mark the milestone by hosting UFC Freedom 250 on the White House lawn. The event will feature two co-main events: a lightweight title fight between Ilia Topuria and Justin Gaethje, and a heavyweight bout between Alex Pereira and Ciryl Gane for the interim title. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,604/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $35,538/ton •Bitcoin: $62,685 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $13,616/ton •Ethereum: $1,670 •Gold: $4,332/toz •Lead: $1,990/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.18/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $88.97/barrel •Zinc: $3,537/ton IRAN AND ISRAEL •Israel and Iran returned to war for about 15 hours, until Pres. Trump pulled Prime Minister Netanyahu back from the brink with another tense phone call. •Trump reportedly told Netanyahu that U.S. negotiators were within days of a breakthrough on nuclear talks with Iran, and would lose the opportunity to seal a lasting deal if Israel and Iran continued to exchange fire. •Iran readily agreed to pause strikes, too, but warned that it was ready to resume if Israel broke its side of the detente. (Except, apparently, in southern Lebanon, where Israeli strikes continued.) •The latest volley apparently started after Israel targeted Hezbollah sites in Lebanon. That Iran retaliated for strikes against its foreign proxies by firing directly at Israel - and ordering another of its proxies, the Houthis in Yemen, to join the fray and fire at Israel, too - shows how Iran sees its proxies' wars against Israel as an integrated part of its broader conflict. The extra dimensions that adds to truce talks will make it harder to reach a durable deal. ARMENIA •Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's pro-Western Civil Contract Party won re-election on Sunday...unless you ask the Russian media, who were instructed to portray the result - in which Civil Contract won 49.8% of the vote - as a loss for Pashinyan and highlight alleged voting irregularities. •Moscow resents Pashinyan's efforts to shift Armenia closer to Europe, and meddled in the election by banning key Armenian import categories to demonstrate the economic perks Armenia would lose if it swapped Russian suppliers for European ones. Pres. Putin pointedly warned Armenians last month that "the crisis in Ukraine began with efforts to move toward EU accession." CHINA •The U.S. Department of War added dozens of Chinese companies - including carmaker BYD and internet giants Baidu and Alibaba - to its list of firms linked to the Chinese military. The Pentagon considers listed firms to be national security threats and bars the U.S. military from doing business with them. •The companies emphatically denied having any military links, and the Chinese government criticized their blacklisting, calling it a pretext to protect American companies from strong Chinese rivals.
Open source reportOff Leash update 2 June 2026 LEBANON AND IRAN •After a call with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, Pres. Trump said Israel and Hezbollah had agreed to pause strikes and work towards a longer-term ceasefire. •Netanyahu portrayed it slightly differently: without admitting that he'd agreed to Pres. Trump's request to observe a ceasefire with Hezbollah, Netanyahu said that if Hezbollah resumes strikes, then Israel will, too. He added that the Israeli military "will continue to operate as planned in southern Lebanon" - i.e., it will only scale back its strikes around Beirut. •Several media reports suggested that Trump was motivated to intervene with Netanyahu by an ultimatum from Iran, which threatened to abandon indirect talks with the U.S. over ending the Iran war if Israel continued to strike its proxies in Lebanon. •Separately, the NYT reported that Israel didn't anticipate Hezbollah's use of first-person view drones to target its troops, and has had to re-think its strategy in southern Lebanon to account for the drone threat: "It is now a kind of deadlock in which Hezbollah suddenly looks more capable than it did when the war began and the soldiers of the Israel Defense Forces can look startlingly helpless." CHINA •According to a new report by Wirescreen, China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) repeatedly tried to buy Nvidia's cutting-edge AI chips from at least 2019 to 2025 - even after the U.S. restricted chip sales to foreign rivals like China. [Wirescreen wasn't able to confirm whether the PLA actually received or is using any Nvidia chips.] •Nvidia has long downplayed concerns about the PLA - or China's surveillance state - relying on its chips, and a spokesman reiterated that sentiment in reaction to the latest report: "China has more than enough domestic chips for all of its military applications, with millions to spare. Just like it would be nonsensical for the American military to use Chinese technology, it makes no sense for the Chinese military to depend on American technology.” UKRAINE •Russia launched one of its biggest recent assaults on Ukraine overnight, targeting several cities and killing at least 17. More are likely trapped under rubble. •The Kremlin had warned of an impending barrage for over a week before it finally launched the attack. Some analysts think the early warnings were intended to inflict a psychological toll on Ukrainians who have spent recent days on high alert, with many sleeping in subway stations or parking lots for safety. •The Economist explained why Russia has turned to targeting Ukrainian cities: "Struggling to advance on the front line, Russia has in recent months stepped up its attacks on civilian areas." RUSSIA •Bloomberg reported that senior Russian Finance Ministry officials have raised rising alarm over the unsustainable pace of defense spending, and proposed military cuts to freeze the yawning government fiscal deficit. •Defense Ministry officials vehemently oppose the idea of cutting war spending, and are even asking for more military funding. According to Bloomberg, some argue that so many Russian businesses rely on defense contracts that cuts would harm the economy. •Several officials said Pres. Putin has asked the Finance Ministry to find cuts in other parts of the budget before resorting to defense cuts, but sanctions and four years of war have already weighed heavily on government spending and there's not much fat left to trim.
Open source reportOff Leash update 29 May 2026 IRAN •The U.S. and Iran have reportedly reached a deal to extend the current temporary ceasefire for 60 days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz while they negotiate the thornier nuclear issues they still disagree on. •Pres. Trump has yet to sign off on the new framework, but wrote on Truth Social that he's close to making a "final determination" on it. Vice Pres. Vance said Trump still had issues with "a couple of language points" in the new draft that were holding up his decision. •In fact, it sounds like they're still far apart on several basic aspects of the proposed deal. For one, Trump said the deal calls for Iran to "immediately open" the Strait of Hormuz to unrestricted traffic, while Iranian state media insisted that "no such clause in the text of the agreement." •Another discrepancy is over money. Trump asserted that "No money will be exchanged, until further notice," while Iranian state media said "the most important part of the agreement” is “the immediate payment of $12 billion of Iran’s frozen assets." ISRAEL •Iran also insists that the temporary ceasefire currently in place covers the wars that Iranian proxies - Hezbollah and Hamas - are fighting with Israel. •Israel disagrees, but the fact that it has escalated its offensive strikes in recent weeks as Iran and the U.S. got closer to a deal suggests Prime Minister Netanyahu may think Pres. Trump may ask him to restrain his forces on other fronts to preserve a fragile truce with Iran. •Israel's escalation continued yesterday and today. The Israeli military struck targets in southern Beirut for the first time in weeks, and Netanyahu also ordered his military to seize at least 70% of Gaza - despite the fact that doing so would violate the October ceasefire agreement, in which Israel agreed to limit its occupation of the territory to just over half its area. RUSSIA •A drone - allegedly Russian - struck an apartment building in Galati, Romania, injuring two people. •European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen complained that the incursion "crossed yet another line," and Romania's Foreign Minister mused about invoking NATO's Article 4, which opens a discussion about threats to a NATO member's security. Article 4 is a step below Article 5, which requires all NATO members to come to the defense of any member under attack.
Open source reportOff Leash update 13 May IRAN •U.S. intelligence agencies have reportedly been painting a very different picture of Iran's surviving military capabilities in classified briefings than the outlook we're hearing from Pres. Trump and Secretary of War Hegseth. •The agencies assess that Iran has regained operational access to 30 of its 33 missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz, and could use the sites to target both military and commercial traffic through the chokepoint. •The agencies also estimated that Iran has restored access to around 90% of its underground launch and storage facilities, and retains about 70% of its prewar mobile launchers and its prewar missile stockpile (which includes both cruise and ballistic missiles). •Pres. Trump insists his starker assessments - e.g., that Iran has been "crushed" and has "nothing left in a military sense" - are accurate, and accused reporters who suggest otherwise of "virtual treason." •Separately, Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia carried out several quiet retaliatory strikes on Iran early in the war. It was the first known time that Saudi has directly struck Iran, and Riyadh apparently made it clear to Tehran that it wanted it to be the last, for now: soon after the strikes, Saudi diplomats engaged their Iranian counterparts in de-escalation talks. UKRAINE AND RUSSIA •Some optimists had hoped the three-day ceasefire Pres. Trump helped broker between Ukraine and Russia could be extended, but Russia's resumption of strikes on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure has ended those hopes. ISRAEL •Prime Minister Netanyahu's fragile ruling coalition finally looks set to collapse after Netanyahu's ultra-Orthodox coalition partners took umbrage at his plans to postpone legislation to shield their Haredi community from military service. (Netanyahu's rationale was that the measure lacked sufficient support in the current parliament and would have been rejected.) •The ultra-Orthodox Degel HaTorah faction responded angrily to the delay, saying it has "no trust in Netanyahu anymore" and calling a vote to dissolve parliament next week. •If that vote passes, new elections must be held within three months - far sooner than the current Oct. 27 deadline. •That's a problem for Netanyahu, who is trailing right-wing former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett in polls. But Netanyahu has survived tougher challenges before. •Separately, a two-year Israeli investigation concluded that Hamas and its allies perpetrated widespread sexual violence during and after the Oct. 7 attacks. It is the most comprehensive report of its kind yet, and will give prosecutors an ample base of evidence to use as they try Hamas militants for their crimes. NIGERIA •Nigeria's military was accused of another massacre of civilians in its errant pursuit of jihadist militants in the north. •The latest incident occurred on Sunday in Zamfara state: airstrikes on a market in Tumfa targeted a terrorist hideout, and - according to Amnesty International - killed over 100 civilians instead. •The military repeated the same response it always has to reports like this: it said it was only targeting militants and has seen no evidence of civilian casualties yet, but promised to investigate.
Open source reportOff Leash update 27 April COMING UP THIS WEEK •The UK's King Charles and Queen Camilla are on a state visit to the U.S. this week. The most consequential part of their tour will be Charles's meeting with Pres. Trump and his address to the U.S. Congress on Tuesday. In both, he'll aim to repair the strained "special relationship" between the U.S. and UK. •The UN begins its five-yearly Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference this week in Geneva, but it's hard to see why they bother: no review since 2010 has led to an agreed outcome. •Friday is May Day or Workers' Day - except in the U.S. and Canada, where workers are celebrated in September. •Central bankers in the U.S., UK, EU, and several other countries will all announce interest rate decisions this week. Investors expect all except perhaps Japan to keep rates flat. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,591/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $34,645/ton •Bitcoin: $77,629 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $13,310/ton •Ethereum: $2,319 •Gold: $4,710/toz •Lead: $1,963/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.51/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $96.16/barrel •Zinc: $3,472/ton MALI •Jihadists from the al Qaeda-linked Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) joined forces with the Tuareg separatist-led Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) to launch a wave of attacks across Mali that captured several towns and killed the junta's defense minister, Gen. Sadio Camara. •The FLA reportedly led the attacks on Gao and Kidal in the north - where they seek to carve out an independent ethnic Tuareg state - while JNIM led attacks on Bamako and central cities like Sevare and Mopti. •A separate prong of their joint assault targeted the head of the junta, Gen. Assimi Goita, but Goita was moved to a secure location where he survived unscathed. •The FLA reportedly bested Russian mercenaries in Kidal and took control of the city after the Russians agreed to withdraw. The FLA then called on Russia to "reconsider its support for the military junta" and leave Mali altogether, accusing the Russians of having "contributed to the suffering of the civilian population." •While JNIM and the FLA share a mutual loathing for the junta-led government in Bamako, this is the first time they've teamed up on a vast, coordinated attack or jointly called for Russia's departure. •It's not clear what their end game is or whether they agree on a shared objective. The FLA wants Tuareg independence, while the JNIM wants to become a political entity and impose sharia law throughout Mali. If they do succeed in bringing down the junta-led government they both revile - which seems unlikely - they would be awkward co-rulers. IRAN •The U.S. and Iran are in no hurry to start a second round of direct peace talks, but both are reportedly engaging indirectly through Pakistani and Omani mediators. •While they stall, the war is costing the U.S. almost $1 billion per day. •Iran, meanwhile, is devising ways to profit from its control of the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi flew to Oman yesterday to seek Muscat's help in setting up a new tolling system for the Strait. Oman - which prides itself on being a "friend to all" - will likely politely decline to participate. ISRAEL •Former Israeli prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announced plans to merge their parties - Bennett's right-leaning Bennett 2026 and Lapid's centrist Yesh Atid - into a combined entity aptly named Yachad ("together," in Hebrew) to try to unseat Prime Minister Netanyahu in elections expected later this year. •There's a fair chance they could succeed: it was a Bennett-Lapid partnership that temporarily ousted Netanyahu in 2021, and Netanyahu's motley coalition is more fragile now than it was then. DEFENSE SPENDING •The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) published its annual report on global defense spending today, with a headline that total worldwide military expenditure grew for an 11th straight year to $2.89 trillion. •Just over half of that - $1.48 trillion - came from the top three spenders: the U.S., China, and Russia. U.S. spending actually declined slightly, but Europe's 14% increase made up for the U.S. decrease. •You can read more here: https://t.co/qWV5aVJhgm. SPORT •Kenyan runner Sabastian Sawe became the first person to run a sub-two hour legal marathon when he set a new world record - 1h59m30s - at yesterday's London Marathon. •It was a fast race: the second-place finisher - Ethiopia's Yomif Kejelcha - also finished in under two hours, and the women's winner - Tigst Assefa, also of Ethiopia - broke her own women's world record with a time of 2h15m41s.
Open source reportOff Leash update 24 April IRAN •The NYT published an excellent report describing how the war has shifted power in Iran from the powerful late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to a group of Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) generals who are now calling the shots. •Pres. Trump has called Iran's new leaders "much more reasonable" than the clerics who imposed the previous Supreme Leader's dictates, and in some ways they are. They're more focused on economic interests than theocratic ones, which makes them more open to the kind of deal Trump can agree to. But their grasp of geo-economic power is also what emboldens them to wield it - for example, by choking off the Strait of Hormuz. •It was reportedly the Guards who decided not to attend a second round of peace talks in Islamabad. Their voices prevailed over those of Iran's President, Masoud Pezeshkian, and Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, who both favored joining talks. Pezeshkian and Araghchi have been seemingly sidelined as the Guards assumed control of the war. •Separately, Pres. Trump has reportedly asked FIFA - which awarded him its inaugural Peace Prize last year - to disqualify Iran from this summer's World Cup and replace it with Italy, which failed to qualify for the tournament. Italy's sports minister said the pity invite would be "inappropriate," adding: "Qualification is on the pitch." Italian fans largely agree. LEBANON •Israel and Lebanon agreed to extend their 10-day truce by a further three weeks. •Like the initial deal, this agreement was brokered and announced by Pres. Trump, who again cajoled reluctant Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into accepting it. •Also as in the first deal, Lebanon - which is not fighting Israel - signed a truce with Israel on behalf of Hezbollah, and can do little to ensure that Hezbollah respects a truce it didn't agree to. [It bears mention that - except for some skirmishes in the south - Hezbollah has mostly respected the ceasefire so far. It has used the reprieve as an opportunity to bury its dead.] VENEZUELA •Venezuela's Acting President, Delcy Rodriguez, announced an end to the amnesty law her government enacted in February under pressure from the U.S. •Rodriguez said 8,616 people had been freed from Venezuelan prisons in the three months the measure was in effect, but rights groups say the true figure was closer to 700. •In addition, most of the political prisoners the U.S. wanted released or exonerated were expressly excluded from the amnesty, and 473 of them are still in prison or have been reincarcerated. •Rodriguez's government still wants to add opposition leader Maria Corina Machado - who faces treason charges that have deterred her return to Venezuela - to that count. •Rodriguez obliquely noted that "there are other avenues through which [the excluded cases] can be addressed," but declined to add detail and doesn't seem serious about addressing them. •Rodriguez especially won't want to facilitate Machado's return to Venezuela, where Machado remains popular and a threat to Rodriguez's unelected regime.
Open source reportOff Leash update 16 April IRAN •The U.S. and Iran are reportedly discussing an extension to the two-week temporary ceasefire that currently expires next Wednesday (April 22) to allow more time to negotiate a more permanent truce. •Pres. Trump downplayed reports of a possible extension and said it would be "preferable" to finalize a permanent truce instead of prolonging a temporary one. Iranian state media reported that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei also opposes an extension. However, both leaders likely prefer an extension over a return to war. LEBANON •Pres. Trump said in a Truth Social post that the leaders of Israel and Lebanon will speak today. •He didn't explicitly say which leaders would speak, but it probably won't be the heads of state: it's hard to imagine Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu agreeing to talk to Lebanese President Aoun after derisively rejecting Aoun's outreach for months. •Separately, the Israeli military said that its April 8 strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon were even more devastating to the militant group's command structure and operational capabilities than its September 2024 pager attack, "but both targeted hundreds of terrorists and within 60 seconds." •The April 8 operation was based on extensive intelligence that tracked 250 Hezbollah operatives - including a large share of the group's mid-level commanders - and simultaneously targeted them in many different locations throughout Lebanon. •Israeli officials assess that Hezbollah's command is still reeling from the April 8 blow, though its rocket fire hasn't abated yet. DRC •DRC's market regulator, ARECOMS, formally established a state strategic cobalt reserve in a bid to expand its control over cobalt supply chains and capture a greater share of the value of its mineral wealth. •The new decree forces cobalt miners operating in DRC - including China's CMOC, Huayou, and Sicomines as well as Glencore and the Eurasian Resources Group - to contribute 10% of their cobalt export volume to the reserve. •It also forces them to max out their quarterly export quotas because they will now forfeit any cobalt they mined but failed to export before each quarterly deadline, with the excess also going into the state reserve. •DRC's cobalt miners will resent the state's new value capture, but there's not much they can do about it: 70% of global cobalt production comes from DRC and the other 30% is generally costlier to extract, so they're stuck working with Kinshasa and its escalating demands. VENEZUELA •Spain's Repsol reached an agreement with Venezuela and its state oil company, PDVSA, to take back operational control of its operations at the Petroquiriquire field, which currently produces about 45,000 barrels per day. •Repsol thinks - probably correctly - that it can operate Petroquiriquire better than PDVSA has: in the new agreement, Repsol committed to tripling the field's production within three years.
Open source reportOff Leash update 2 March COMING UP THIS WEEK •China's National People's Congress - a rubber-stamp parliament - opens its annual meeting Thursday. Analysts expect it to set a slightly lower GDP growth than last year's target: perhaps 4.5% instead of 5.0%. •The Winter Paralympics start Friday in Milan and Cortina d'Ampezzo, Italy. •Colombia votes for its parliament Sunday, which is also International Women's Day and the beginning of Daylight Savings Time in the U.S. (but not in Europe, where clocks change Mar. 29). COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,140/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $66,223 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $13,344/ton •Ethereum: $1,951 •Gold: $5,392/toz •Lead: $1,962/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.01/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $72.21/barrel - Some analysts expect this to rise to $85-90 when markets open today because of Iran's naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following U.S. and Israeli strikes over the weekend. •Zinc: $3,317/ton IRAN •The U.S. and Israel bombed Iran on Saturday morning, targeting a daytime gathering of senior Iranian figures - including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei - in some of their opening strikes. •Iranian state media confirmed early rumors that Khamenei was killed in the strikes. Many Iranians cheered his death and the end of his 37-year theocratic reign; others - largely religious ultraconservatives - mourned his loss. •The regime announced 40 days of mourning and said the constitutionally-defined process of appointing his successor would begin immediately and could anoint the next Ayatollah within days. •Candidates include his son, Mojtaba; his loyal aide, Ali Larijani; and several hardline clerics. Whoever is picked will immediately have a target on their back. That said, all the top candidates probably already do: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said his military has "thousands more targets" in its sights. •The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) vowed to avenge Khamenei's death, but much of the IRGC's leadership - including its top commander - died with him. •The decapitated IRGC still retaliated by launching ballistic missiles at Israel and several countries in the region that host U.S. military bases. Most were easily intercepted, but some caused damage and a few caused casualties - including the deaths of three U.S. soldiers. •The ongoing exchange of fire has caused widespread flight cancellations, and both sides seem bent on further escalation. In particular, Iran's navy is reportedly carrying out the IRGC's threat to choke off shipping in the vital waterway, through which 31% of all seaborne crude oil passes. •In a social media post, Pres. Trump called on Iranians to finish the job: "When we are finished, take over your government." It's not clear whether the battered, unarmed, and disorganized opposition will heed his call to rise up, but leaving the hard part to them lets Trump avoid sending ground troops into what could become another Middle Eastern quagmire. LEBANON •Iran's strongest remaining proxy, Hezbollah, then joined Iran's side by lobbing missiles towards Israel from Lebanon. Israel promptly retaliated with a barrage of airstrikes on Hezbollah areas in Lebanon. •Israel's quick, decisive action against Hezbollah was embarrassing for the Lebanese government, which promised Israel it would rein in the militia as a condition of their Nov. 2024 ceasefire, but has made little progress doing so out of fears of a confrontation that the weak Lebanese army might lose. UKRAINE •Ukrainian officials said Russia had agreed to some facets of the post-war security guarantees the U.S. proposed. The two sides still need to resolve the other sticking point of land trades, and Moscow could still renege on its pinky promise on security guarantees. PAKISTAN AND AFGHANISTAN •Afghanistan's Taliban government said its military fired anti-aircraft missiles that successfully deterred Pakistani jets threatening Bagram Air Base. •Bagram holds significant symbolic importance for the Taliban: the captured U.S. base holds Afghanistan's largest runway and hosts annual military parades each year on the anniversary of the Taliban's return to power. •Its destruction would be a much bigger loss for the Taliban than the small ammunition depots Pakistan targeted in its first wave of cross-border strikes last week. VENEZUELA •Venezuela's opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado, announced in a social media post that she plans to return to her home country in the coming weeks. •Machado left Venezuela in December to attend the Nobel award ceremony in Oslo, where she collected her Nobel Peace Prize. •Before she left, Nicolas Maduro's government charged her with a litany of crimes and ominously warned that she wouldn't be allowed to return if she left. •Maduro's former vice president and successor, Interim President Delcy Rodriguez, may only be slightly more lenient on her: Rodriguez recently said Machado will have to "answer to Venezuela" for advocating for U.S. military intervention in Caracas.
Open source reportOff Leash update 30 Dec VENEZUELA •Pres. Trump acknowledged that a CIA drone strike about a week ago destroyed a Venezuelan dock allegedly used by Tren de Aragua drug traffickers to export their wares, marking what seems to be the first known land strike on Venezuela. •Trump declined to share more details, and Nicolas Maduro's government has only referred to the incident obliquely - perhaps to downplay concerns about escalation and calls for retaliation. •Separately, another Operation Southern Spear boat strike in the eastern Pacific killed two yesterday. UKRAINE •Pres. Zelensky reported that Pres. Trump offered Ukraine 15 years of security guarantees during their meeting on Sunday. That's far short of the indefinite guarantees Zelensky had sought, but Zelensky seemed content to compromise in the interest of resolving the remaining bigger differences of position. •Rumors suggest Trump may next host a new round of negotiations next month with Zelensky as well as European leaders (some of whom joined by phone this time). ISRAEL •Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu visited Pres. Trump at Mar-a-Lago yesterday for talks that were amiable but produced no big breakthroughs on Trump's Gaza peace plan. •Netanyahu secured one key win, though: he got Trump's assurance that the U.S. would back Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites if Iran continues to develop its weapons programs. IRAN •Protesters demonstrated in Tehran yesterday against rising inflation after preliminary December data showed an annualized inflation rate of 42.2%. •Pres. Pezeshkian has repeatedly conceded that he's out of ideas to fix Iran's ailing economy, and the resignation of his central bank chief yesterday certainly won't help. •An academic paraphrased in the NYT sees two ways Iran can escape the looming inflationary spiral: "It could change its relationship with the United States in exchange for relief on sanctions...or drastically cut government spending, but neither option appears likely." Instead, further inflation seems more probable. CHINA •China is seeking to supplant the U.S. as the lead peacemaker between Thailand and Cambodia. After Pres. Trump claimed a role in closing the initial 72-hour truce, China stepped in to host the next round of talks on a more permanent ceasefire yesterday and today. •Beijing's foreign ministry implicitly boasted that its mediation style was less pushy than the U.S. approach: "China’s efforts to promote peace and dialogue never impose on others or overstep its bounds."
Open source reportOff Leash Update 10 Nov 2025 Happy 250th Anniversary to the United States Marine Corps! COMING UP THIS WEEK •COP30 - the UN's climate conference - starts today and runs through Nov. 21. This year's edition will include fewer world leaders than attended past summits. The lackluster turnout is leading some to question the purpose of the summit. •The U.S. celebrates Veterans Day tomorrow, and the American Legion published a list of nationwide deals and discounts veterans can enjoy here: https://t.co/ri80Zt9MMx. •Tomorrow is also Iraq's election. Voter registration figures suggest Iraqis are disillusioned with their politicians, and many Shia will probably join popular cleric Moqtada al Sadr in boycotting the vote. Those who vote are expected to do so along sectarian lines, leaving Iraq's political elite to allocate power amongst themselves. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,848/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $106,245 •Cobalt: $48,570/ton •Copper: $10,717/ton •Ethereum: $3,604 •Gold: $4,078/toz •Lead: $2,047/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.49/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $60.22/barrel •Zinc: $3,057/ton VENEZUELA •Numerous reports suggest that Venezuela's strongman, Nicolas Maduro, has been leveraging Cuban intelligence to intensify a crackdown on suspected traitors within his government by jailing and - allegedly - torturing military officers suspected of disloyalty. •Whether or not any of the targeted officers were actually plotting against Maduro, his crackdown on suspected traitors is bound to make other officers hesitate to challenge his authority. •Separately, Venezuela's army released a series of new patriotic promotional videos over the weekend as part of what some analysts suspect is an effort to motivate soldiers and attract new recruits. •In one clip filmed at the national military academy, army commander Gen. Johan Hernández Láre boasts that the academy's cadets "are ready to destroy the enemy" after their training on the first-person view (FPV) drone simulators in the background. Gamers around the world may be worried: astute observers pointed out that the simulators behind Láre bear an uncanny resemblence to FPV Kamikaze Drone, a video game sold on Steam for $3.99. GAZA •Turkey accused Israel of bombing a Turkish hospital in Gaza and issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on charges of "genocide and crimes against humanity." Israel called it a "PR stunt." •While trading diplomatic barbs with Israel, Turkey is apparently constructively helping the U.S. and UAE try to negotiate safe passage for Hamas fighters trapped in tunnels in Israeli-controlled parts of Gaza. •Separately, Hamas returned the remains of Lt. Hadar Goldin, an Israeli soldier who was killed in Gaza in 2014. Goldin was one of the deceased hostages whose release was mandated by the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. DRONES •The UK said it would lend Belgium military support to protect against a wave of drone incursions into Belgian airspace. IRAN •Tehran's water supplies have continued to dwindle through a rain-less autumn, and authorities have started rationing water. •Late last week, Pres. Masoud Pezeshkian - who has been sounding the alarm about Tehran's looming water crisis for months - warned that Tehran residents may need to evacuate if the drought lasts another month. The Ministry of Energy is trying to draw rain using "cloud seeding" first. INDIA •A car bomb killed at least 10 people near one of Delhi's top tourist attractions - the Red Fort - today, leading authorities to impose a high security alert on other tourist and government sites in the capital. •Investigators are treading cautiously and not explicitly calling it a terrorist attack yet - but the fact that India's federal anti-terror investigators are leading the inquiry suggests terrorism is a leading theory.
Open source reportOff Leash update 3 Nov COMING UP THIS WEEK •The U.S. votes in mid-term elections on Tuesday. The most-watched races include New York City's mayoral contest, heated gubernatorial polls in Virginia and New Jersey, and California's Prop. 50 on redistricting (to supporters) / gerrymandering (to those opposed). •Sunday marks the 36th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,884/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $107,777 •Cobalt: $48,570/ton •Copper: $10,888/ton •Ethereum: $3,733 •Gold: $4,022/toz •Lead: $2,017/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.28/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $60.76/barrel •Zinc: $3,056/ton GAZA •Hamas returned the remains of three more hostages, including U.S. citizen Omer Neutra. •Despite Israeli claims otherwise, Hamas maintains that it's working as fast as it can to locate and return the remains of the other eight hostages who died in captivity over the course of the two-year war. •Meanwhile, an Israeli airstrike killed one man who was allegedly threatening Israeli troops near Gaza City. LEBANON •Israel is growing frustrated with the Lebanese government's lack of progress disarming Hezbollah, and has taken up the task of targeting Hezbollah operatives in southern Lebanon with near-daily airstrikes in recent weeks. •Lebanon's Pres. Aoun resents the intrusions and wants Israeli troops to leave the five areas of southern Lebanon that they still occupy. Aoun has called on Israel to negotiate a more permanent ceasefire than the fragile (but lasting) truce they signed a year ago. •However, Israel seems uninterested in negotiating while Aoun's government is failing to uphold its commitment to contain and disarm Hezbollah. [Analysts point out that Aoun's Lebanese Armed Forces are weaker than Hezbollah and he can't do much to force disarmament.] •Prime Minister Netanyahu warned of further Israeli action against Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, and blamed Iran for backing both Hezbollah and the Houthis. TANZANIA •Tanzania's election commission confirmed Samia Suluhu Hassan - who appointed its commissioners - as the winner of last week's presidential election, with an unsurprising 98% of the vote. The commission also dubiously claimed that turnout was around 75% higher than in 2020, when voters had more of a choice of candidates. •Hassan's win was essentially uncontested this time, since her government barred both real rivals from running. It also tried to prevent unhappy Tanzanians from protesting against the election by imposing a nationwide curfew, restricting internet access, and condescendingly calling critics of the undemocratic poll "neither responsible nor patriotic." •The main opposition party, CHADEMA - whose leader is imprisoned awaiting sentencing on spurious charges - claims security officers have killed hundreds of protesters. Demonstrations continue, despite Hassan's crackdown. CHINA •U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said China made a "real mistake" by proposing since-postponed export control restrictions on rare earths, since the threat alone motivated the U.S. to get serious about finding alternative sources for its rare earths needs. •Australia is one of the alternative sources being developed: Pres. Trump and Prime Minister Albanese recently signed an agreement to jointly develop Australia's rare earth supplies. •Incidentally, Bessent's comments felt like a close parallel to the effect that U.S. export controls on advanced computing chips have had on Chinese chipmaking, where supply restrictions forced fast-track domestic innovators to quickly catch up to technologies they were barred from importing. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 24 Oct RUSSIA •Pres. Putin reacted angrily to new U.S. sanctions on Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil, which Pres. Trump imposed in frustration with Putin's refusal to engage in Ukraine ceasefire talks. Putin called the new measures an "unfriendly act" and chided the foreign buyers complying with them that "no self-respecting country" would cave to such pressure. •Yet Russia's major customers, including India and China, are indeed curtailing their purchases of seaborne Russian oil because of the new sanctions - at least in the short term. Oil prices rose 5% on expectations of greater competition to buy non-sanctioned oil. VENEZUELA •Two supersonic U.S. B-1 bombers flew close enough to Venezuela yesterday to cause concern for Nicolas Maduro, who is probably uneasily watching the skies for signs that Pres. Trump has begun to launch the land strikes he's been threatening. •The U.S. Lancers remained in international airspace, and Pres. Trump later rejected initial Pentagon suggestions that the sorties were part of an "attack demonstration" to intimidate Maduro. But - given recent escalatory rhetoric from both sides - this looks like more of a preview than a false alarm. SUDAN •According to media reports, representatives of "The Quad" - Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the U.S. - are meeting in Washington today to mediate between the warring sides of Sudan's civil war. •Alas, neither the army nor the Rapid Support Forces seem ready to talk peace. Both deny that they're even engaging in indirect talks, and both continue to stock up on weapons - despite an (apparently ineffective) arms embargo. NIGER •Suspected jihadist gunmen kidnapped an American missionary, Kevin Rideout, from his home just 100 meters (300 feet) from the presidential palace in Niamey. •Rideout's abduction will be a painful reminder to the junta - which operates from the presidential palace - of how badly it has failed to contain jihadists and restore security since taking power in July 2023. •Both Islamic State's Sahel Province (ISSP) and the Al Qaeda-linked Group for Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) are active in Niger and across its porous borders, and both have abducted Westerners for ransom in recent years. But it was probably ISSP - rather than JNIM - that abducted Rideout, whose cell phone was last traced to an ISSP-ridden area north of Niamey. WEST BANK •Vice Pres. Vance and Pres. Trump both categorically rejected the Israeli Knesset's preliminary vote on a proposal to annex much of the West Bank. •Vance - speaking from Israel - called it an "insult" and a "very stupid political stunt," and Trump vowed that "Israel would lose all of its support from the United States" if the measure wins full approval. •Most of Prime Minister Netanyahu's Likud party would agree with Vance that the proposal was an opposition stunt designed to provoke outcry, and the bill is unlikely to clear the remaining three votes it would need to pass. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 23 Oct RUSSIA •The U.S. imposed new sanctions on Russian oil majors Lukoil and Rosneft yesterday - one week after the UK sanctioned the same companies. •These were the first war-related sanctions the U.S. has imposed on Russia since Pres. Trump returned to office, and Trump's Treasury Secretary - Scott Bessent - directly linked them to Pres. Putin's stonewalling on peace talks: "Given President Putin’s refusal to end this senseless war, Treasury is sanctioning Russia’s two largest oil companies that fund the Kremlin’s war machine." •The new measures are a significant escalation - Pres. Trump called them "tremendous sanctions" - and they appear intended to push Putin to agree to talks. They'll also help nudge India to reduce its Russian oil imports, since Indian refiners buy much of their Russian oil from the newly-sanctioned companies. •The EU also slapped new sanctions on Russia yesterday. The EU's new sanctions package - its 19th over the Ukraine war - targeted Russian liquefied natural gas imports. CARTELS •The U.S. military carried out its eighth and ninth known strikes on alleged drug trafficking vessels in Latin America, killing five people between the two boats. •Unlike the previous seven known strikes, which took place in the Caribbean, these two both targeted boats in the eastern Pacific Ocean. •Following the latest strikes, Pres. Trump warned that his administration is "totally prepared" to expand its anti-cartel operations to strike drug-linked targets on land, which would be a significant escalation. However, he noted that land strikes may require Congress's approval. VENEZUELA •Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro - who, not unreasonably, perceives himself as the target of U.S. anti-cartel operations in Latin America - announced that he has deployed an arsenal of over 5,000 Russian-made Igla-S anti-aircraft missiles "to guarantee peace, stability, and tranquility" in the face of unspoken U.S. threats against him. •Despite his lip service toward peace, it's Maduro - not the U.S. - who is explicitly banging war drums. In addition to deploying anti-aircraft batteries, he has ramped up militia recruitment and launched large, televised military exercises that feed into his regime's warnings that Venezuelans should prepare "for the worst" and ready themselves for war. •Satellite imagery analysts have been unable to spot any of the 5,000+ Igla-S missiles Maduro claims to have deployed, and Maduro has a habit of grossly exaggerating numerical claims like this (to wit, he claimed to have mobilized more people willing to fight for him than voted for him). The true number of Igla-S missiles in Venezuela is far fewer than 5,000 GAZA •The Israeli Knesset passed the first of four votes required to approve a bill allowing Israel to annex the West Bank - despite clear international opprobrium. •Sec Rubio reiterated U.S. opposition to annexation and called the bill "counterproductive" and "threatening to the peace deal." Even Prime Minister Netanyahu's Likud party opposed it and accused its proponents of trying to "damage our relations with the United States." •The measure still faces three more votes before it can be fully approved, and Netanyahu will likely press the Likud members who abstained from the first vote to fall into line and vote against the next ones. DRC •China's Twangiza Mining declared force majeure after a drone strike took out power at its South Kivu gold mine. •Twangiza has had a rough go of it lately: Rwanda-backed M23 rebels occupied its mine in May, and - with the help of Twangiza's own employees - have since looted around $70 million worth of gold and $5 million in equipment and materials from the site. Their loot was secreted over the border to Rwanda for export, with the proceeds used to fund the Rwandan/M23's war. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 6 October COMING UP THIS WEEK •Nobel Prizes will be announced from today to next Monday, with one of the six prizes announced each weekday. Today's announcement awarded the Nobel in Physiology or Medicine to three scientists who advanced our understanding of human immune systems. •Tomorrow is the second anniversary of Hamas's attack on Israel, which started the ongoing Gaza war. •The Seychelles concludes its three-day run-off presidential election on Saturday, and Cameroon votes for president on Sunday. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,710/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $124,275 - near the record high of $125,400 touched over the weekend in exuberance about last week's Federal Reserve rate cut •Cobalt: $35,000/ton •Copper: $10,716/ton •Ethereum: $4,573 •Gold: $3,934/toz •Lead: $2,020/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.44/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $61.44/barrel •Zinc: $3,035/ton GAZA •Hamas mostly agreed to the peace proposal Pres. Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu put forth last week - but with enough equivocation on key points (like a timeline for releasing hostages) to seemingly give Netanyahu cold feet. •For example, Hamas said it will need an unspecified amount of time to locate and excavate the remains of deceased hostages to return - which throws a wrench in Netanyahu's demand for an imminent deadline - and it demanded the release of some high-profile Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails in return. •Instead of accepting Hamas's positive response as a win, Netanyahu said the group's caveats constituted a rejection and said there was "nothing to celebrate" about the most promising ceasefire proposal yet. •Netanyahu certainly won't be celebrating the bind that Hamas's assent puts him in. As Eran Etzion - a former senior Israeli national security official under four prime ministers, including Netanyahu - put it, Netanyahu "will find himself with the entire world clapping [for a peace deal] and he needs to explain why he's against it." [Which is because he (rightly) fears that sealing a peace deal with Hamas will cause hardliners to end their support for his fragile premiership.] •Despite Netanyahu's dithering, delegates from Israel and Hamas will convene in Egypt today for mediated negotiations to finalize details of the proposed deal. Experts warn that this stage of negotiations may be the toughest: Israel and Hamas are still far apart on longtime sticking points, like the degree to which Hamas must disarm. •Several analysts pointed out that Israel's Sep. 9 strike on Hamas leaders in Qatar may have worked against Netanyahu and forced him into negotiations he'd hoped to avoid. It perhaps also catalyzed regional support for a peace deal by stirring up anger over a unilateral strike on a mediating country - and fear of further strikes on others in the region. JAPAN •Takaichi Sanae won the leadership of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in a run-off, making her likely to become Japan’s next prime minister - and its first female leader. Takaichi's LDP lacks a majority, so she still needs opposition backing to become prime minister, but analysts expect she'll prevail. •Analysts also expect her - once in office - to boost government spending and advocate loose monetary policy, so news of her election boosted the Nikkei 225 stock index 4% to an all-time high. FRANCE •Pres. Macron's seventh prime minister since 2022, Sébastien Lecornu, named his cabinet yesterday, and his picks - who were largely carryovers from the previous, ineffectual cabinet - fell flat. •Lecornu promptly resigned in frustration, blaming political "egos" and opposition parties with "partisan appetites." Macron must now try to find an eighth candidate to nominate - or give in to the right's calls for new elections, which would likely see Macron's centrist bloc lose seats to parties on both extremes. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 16 Sept VENEZUELA •The U.S. Navy targeted another drug boat near Venezuela, killing three people who Pres. Trump said were "positively identified, extraordinarily violent drug trafficking cartels and narcoterrorists" heading to the U.S. with "big bags of cocaine and fentanyl." •Some legal experts have criticized these extra judicial strikes on alleged drug boats as excessive, pointing out that even convicted drug traffickers don't face the death penalty. These accused traffickers are being executed without a trial. [Trump argues that drug cartels should be treated as foreign terrorist organizations and have forfeited their right to stand trial.] •Before the new U.S. strike was announced yesterday, Venezuela's dictator, Nicolas Maduro, called the first U.S. strike of this campaign - which occurred Sep. 2 - a "heinous crime" and "a military attack on civilians who were not at war and were not militarily threatening any country." •Maduro insists that the U.S. is trying to goad Venezuela into a "major war" with the goal of "regime change for oil." Few in the Trump administration would be sad to see Maduro's regime fall, but this naval operation seems like a roundabout way to launch a "major war." ISRAEL AND GAZA •Israel began the "main phase" of its ground offensive on Gaza City this morning, rolling tanks into Gaza's largest population center - which Israel believes to be Hamas's last major stronghold. •U.S. SecState Rubio just paid a visit to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, and offered Netanyahu full U.S. support for his offensive against Hamas. Rubio also conceded that a Gaza peace deal may be out of reach at this stage. •Both Rubio and Netanyahu dodged questions about whether Israel told Pres. Trump it planned to target Hamas leaders in Qatar in advance of the strike. Israeli officials maintain that Trump did indeed have advance warning; the White House claims he only found out after missiles were in the air. Either way, it seems clear Trump didn't have enough advance warning to object to the strike or warn Qatar about it. •On the other side, Arab states met yesterday in Doha to rally behind Qatar in unanimous objection to Israel's strike. •Iran's Pres. Pezeshkian was one of the most vocal attendees denouncing the strike; he complained that "Israel strikes wherever it wants and does whatever it wants," and proposed an "Islamic NATO" to deter future Israeli fire. That's ironic, given that Iran carried out its own ballistic missile strikes on Qatar just three months ago. SYRIA •I missed a key event in my weekly outlook: Syria's new government began a one-week process to choose its new legislature yesterday. •Interim President Ahmed al Sharaa will appoint 70 of its 210 members, while local committees will pick the rest. •As The Economist noted: "Popular democracy this is not, but it is certainly more unpredictable than elections for the old parliament, in which only Bashar al-Assad’s toadies were allowed to run." CHINA •U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent announced an eleventh-hour agreement to allow TikTok to continue operating in the U.S. under U.S.-controlled owners ahead of tomorrow's extended deadline. Presidents Trump and Xi will "complete" the deal Friday. •Separately, China's markets regulator ruled that chipmaking giant Nvidia's 2020 acquisition of Mellanox Technologies violated antitrust laws. That's going to make ongoing U.S.-China trade talks in Madrid awkward. Some observers suggested the ruling may be China's revenge for Pres. Trump's pressure on U.S. allies to raise tariffs on China over China's purchases of Russian oil.
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 Sept HAMAS •An Israeli airstrike targeted Hamas's leadership-in-exile in Qatar while they were reportedly meeting to discuss a new, U.S.-backed ceasefire proposal. •Hamas said the strike missed its most senior targets but killed five lower-level members, including the son of the militia's senior negotiator, and a Qatari security officer. •The strike - thought to be Israel's first on Qatar - probably did more damage to U.S.-Israeli relations and Qatar's willingness to mediate ceasefire talks than it did to Hamas. •Pres. Trump said he was "very unhappy about every aspect of" the strike and specifically lamented Israel's unilateral action against Qatar, which Trump called "a Sovereign Nation and close Ally of the United States, that is working very hard and bravely taking risks with us to broker Peace." •Qatar's prime minister offered reassurances that his country would still continue its (thus far thankless and fruitless) role of mediating between Israel and Hamas, but seethed at Israel for violating Qatari sovereignty. He criticized Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu by name and called for "a response from the entire region to such barbaric actions." •Meanwhile, Hamas belatedly claimed responsibility for Monday's shooting that killed six in Jerusalem. •Netanyahu's office said the Jerusalem shooting was one of the factors that led Israel to target Hamas's leadership in Qatar, but it seems more likely that Israel's strike had been planned for months and was only waiting for an opportunity to target a gathered group of Hamas leaders. NEPAL •Nepal's "Gen Z" protesters were clearly not satisfied with the government's half-hearted (and mildly patronizing) concession to lift a nascent social media ban but ignore agitators' more significant calls for reform. •Nor did the demonstrators accept yesterday's resignations of the prime minister, KP Sharma Oli, and home minister as solutions. •Following the resignations, angry demonstrators set fire to the Supreme Court, the parliament building, the prime minister's residence (and residences of three former prime ministers), and the ruling Communist Party of Nepal's headquarters. •The military sent troops to restore order in Kathmandu - apparently unsuccessfully so far. The protests seem to be morphing into a broader, angrier expression of economic discontent and outrage over government corruption. FRANCE •Pres. Macron appointed his former defense minister and close ally, Sébastien Lecornu, to become his fifth prime minister. •Like his unsuccessful predecessor, François Bayrou, Lecornu is a centrist. He'll face the same resistance from both political extremes - the far left and the far right - that stalled Bayrou's budget proposal and ultimately ended his premiership. IRAN •Iran signed an agreement laying out "practical modalities" for International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) experts to resume inspections of Iran's nuclear sites, which were cut off in June when Israel - and then the U.S. - bombed the sites. •Iran is keen to cooperate with the IAEA to avoid a reinstatement of UN sanctions, which is a distinct possibility after France, Germany, and the UK notified the UN last week that Iran was in breach of its commitments to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal. •That notification started a 30-day clock for consultations in which both sides hope to avoid the drastic default option of a "snapback mechanism" that reimposes UN sanctions on Iran. •Iran's foreign minister noted that its agreement to resume IAEA inspections is contingent on reaching a deal to avoid reinstated sanctions, and - if sanctions are reimposed - "Iran will consider its cooperation with the agency to have come to an end." 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 5 Sept UKRAINE •France's Pres. Macron announced that 26 countries have formally agreed to be "present on the ground, in the sea or in the air” to guarantee Ukraine's security in a potential future peace deal with Russia. •Macron was intentionally vague about what that commitment really means because the group does not wish to "reveal the details of our organization to Russia." •Several signatories - including Germany, Italy, Poland, and the U.S. - have already rejected the idea of having troops on the ground in Ukraine, and so far only Estonia, France, and the UK have publicly entertained the idea of sending ground troops. The Kremlin obviously hates the idea. •Pres. Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, attended the summit Macron co-hosted with the UK's Prime Minister Starmer, and Trump apparently dialed in, too. Their participation reinforced U.S. backing for a European-led post-war plan. •Trump seemingly surprised Macron by taking a tough tone on Pres. Putin after the pair's fairly friendly meeting in Alaska last month. On yesterday's call, Trump urged the 30 heads of state in attendance not to buy Russian oil, and to redouble pressure on China to stop funding Russia's war effort. AFGHANISTAN •As the dust settles on Sunday's earthquake in northeast Afghanistan, reports are emerging that some (all-male) first responders abided by Taliban-directed cultural norms and refused to help women and girls trapped in the rubble, leaving them to wait for female rescuers. •As a result, women may represent a disproportionate share of the 2,200 killed and 3,600 injured in the disaster when the Taliban government eventually releases a gender breakdown of casualties. Or - if casualty statistics were a woman's job before the Taliban banned women from working - we may never see that breakdown at all. DRC •DRC declared a new Ebola outbreak in its south-central Kasai province, which borders Angola. •So far, health officials have counted 15 deaths and 28 suspected cases in the current outbreak, which is DRC's first since 2022 - and Kasai's first since 2008. •Kinshasa is well-versed in dealing with Ebola, and keeps an ample "stockpile of treatments" - including vaccines - on hand to deploy to new outbreaks like this. GAZA •Hamas said it was ready to release all 20 surviving hostages in exchange for an end to the war and Israel's full military withdrawal from Gaza, but Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu - who demands Hamas's full disarmament too - quickly rejected its latest offer as "spin" and "nothing new." •Israel still hasn't formally responded to the ceasefire proposal Hamas agreed to last week, but its mounting military offensive on Gaza City seems like a negative sign. VENEZUELA •The U.S. Dept. of Defense (which is soon to be renamed the "Department of War") reported that two Venezuelan military jets buzzed one of the U.S. Navy's guided missile destroyers operating in international waters off the coast of Venezuela in a "highly provocative" attempt "to interfere with our counter-narco-terror operations." •The Pentagon responded with a direct warning to Pres. Maduro's government: "The cartel running Venezuela is strongly advised not to pursue any further effort to obstruct, deter or interfere with counter-narcotics and counter-terror operations carried out by the US military." Editor note to Venezuelan military: Fuck Around and Find Out!
Open source reportOff Leash update. 3 Sept VENEZUELA •The U.S. carried out what the Pentagon called a "precision strike against a drug vessel operated by a designated narco-terrorist organization," killing 11 aboard and marking the first kinetic action of Pres. Trump's recently-amplified campaign against cartels. •Trump later said those aboard the targeted vessel - 11 of whom were reportedly killed in the strike - had been "positively identified" as members of the Tren de Aragua drug cartel, and repeated his claim that Venezuela's Pres. Maduro is the cartel's leader. •While some analysts reject the notion that Maduro directly controls Tren de Aragua, many read Trump's latest statement as the strongest suggestion yet that his anti-cartel campaign could - as Maduro fears - be used to target the Venezuelan regime. GAZA •The NYT reported on an emerging rift between Prime Minister Netanyahu and several of his top military and security officials over Netanyahu's stubborn opposition to a Gaza ceasefire deal. •Netanyahu's military chief of staff, national security adviser, foreign minister, and Mossad chief are reportedly among those advocating for a negotiated, phased peace deal. •While none of the officials opposing Netanyahu's stance have broken from protocol to publicly dissent, the fact that officials are anonymously speaking to the press about it reveals a real rift within Netanyahu's administration. •Meanwhile, the military is pressing forward with the other path: an offensive on Gaza City. •However, commanders are reportedly struggling to recruit the additional 60,000 reservists they'll need for the new offensive. •Many veterans and reservists have joined growing calls to end the war, and those who favor Netanyahu's tougher approach are already on active duty carrying it out. •New recruits are hard to find among the war-weary public - up to 80% of whom want Netanyahu to strike a deal to end the war and bring the hostages home, per recent polls. It's shocking that PM Netanyahu cannot get his own sons to serve their country in wartime. PALESTINIAN STATEHOOD •Belgium said it would join Australia, Canada, France, and the UK in recognizing Palestinian statehood at the UN General Assembly this month. •Like the UK, Belgium has attached conditions to its recognition: Hamas must first release all hostages and relinquish "any role in managing Palestine." CHINA •Judging by the reporting from China's gathering of world leaders for this week's military celebrations, the event has been a marvelous success. •State media captured Pres. Xi having a jolly good time with his Russian, Indian, and North Korean counterparts - Pres. Putin, Prime Minister Modi, and dictator Kim Jong Un - and all seem in great spirits today for the best part: Xi's mighty military parade. NORTH KOREA •It's Take Your Daughter to Work Day for Kim Jong Un's only child, "Dear Daughter" Kim Ju-ae, who joined her father on his slow-moving bulletproof train to Beijing and is attending this week's festivities by his side. •Ju-ae - who is thought to be about 12 years old - has been accompanying her father to important parades. UKRAINE •Speaking in China, Russia's Pres. Putin told Slovak Prime Minister Fico that he'd reached a "mutual understanding" on Ukraine with Pres. Trump when the two met in Alaska last month. •He then seemed to squash hopes for a near-term peace deal by reiterating his tired refrain that the "root causes of the crisis" - i.e., Ukraine's independence and westward tilt - "must be eliminated" first. TECHNOLOGY •U.S. Federal Judge Amit P. Mehta ordered Google to share some of its search result data with rival companies to remedy Google's monopoly on search. Notably, the decision does not require Google to sell its browser, Chrome. •This was the first U.S. antitrust lawsuit against a modern tech major, and it sets a somewhat lenient precedent for how U.S. courts will regulate potential abuses of power by tech companies.
Open source reportOff Leash update 21 Aug GAZA •The Israeli military began what a spokesman called "the next phase of the war" in Gaza and called up 60,000 reservists for the effort. Its troops have reached the edges of Gaza City and are preparing to encircle it and take control. •Meanwhile, a planning committee issued final approval for a contentious 3,400-unit West Bank settlement project called East One, or E1 for short. E1 was first proposed in 1995, but its approval was long delayed until now - in part over widespread concerns that E1's central location will disrupt the contiguity of the Palestinian-populated West Bank. •To Israeli hardliners like finance minister Bezalel Smotrich, that's exactly the point: after yesterday's approval, Smotrich gloated that the idea of a Palestinian state "is being erased from the table." Smotrich has been a driving force behind the recent acceleration in settlement approvals, and critics say Prime Minister Netanyahu has given Smotrich unprecedented - and unwarranted - authority over settlement plans because he needs Smotrich's party's support to stay in power. •Both moves - in Gaza and the West Bank - suggest Netanyahu isn't seriously considering the temporary ceasefire proposal Hamas agreed to this week. UKRAINE •Russia's Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, said that Russia would insist on being party to any future security guarantees for Ukraine, including those the U.S. is considering that Pres. Trump suggested could be "NATO-like." I suppose that means that if Russia attacks Ukraine post-peace, it will be obliged to retaliate on Ukraine's behalf against...itself? •Lavrov's bizarre comment seems like yet another example that Russia isn't ready to talk peace. •Meanwhile on the battlefield, Russian troops continue to inch forward using inefficient but sneaky tactics like sending small groups of footsoldiers across to regroup behind Ukrainian lines and attack. •Russia's broader goal appears to be to capture as much ground as possible so it can start peace talks from a better negotiating position - if its valiant stalling efforts fail and it's forced to start talks. CHINA •China's Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, returned from a two-day state visit to India with several trade and diplomatic agreements to rebuild and strengthen ties between the two Asian giants. Ties gradually frayed over their superpower rivalry, but cleaved in 2020 over a border dispute. •China and India now plan to reopen their shared (and still disputed) border in three places and facilitate visa approvals to improve trade flows. They'll also resume direct flights, which had been suspended since pandemic lockdowns. •Some analysts see the diplomatic rekindling as a result of U.S. trade pressure on India that has encouraged India to turn to other trade and geopolitical allies instead. •Separately, Chinese leader Xi Jinping paid a rare and unannounced visit to the Tibetan capital of Lhasa yesterday. Xi - who hadn't visited Lhasa since 2021 - said Beijing would "guide Tibetan Buddhism to adapt to socialist society," which probably means it will continue to impose the Communist Party's devoutly atheist values on resolutely spiritual Tibetan Buddhists in the region. AFGHANISTAN •After Chinese Foreign Minister Wang's visit to India, Wang flew to Kabul to offer Afghanistan's Taliban government new Chinese investment - particularly in infrastructure and mining (especially of lithium, iron, and copper) - and to invite Afghanistan to formally join the Belt and Road Initiative. •China's 176 construction contracts and investment pledges to Belt and Road members in the first half of 2025 totaled $124 billion. That's already more than the $122 billion that China pledged to members in all of 2024. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 20 Aug GAZA •Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu hasn't publicly commented on the ceasefire proposal Hamas accepted and put forward for Netanyahu's (unlikely) approval. •The proposal on the table would reportedly entail only a partial hostage release of 10 living hostages - about half the 20 or so thought to be left - and 18 bodies, in exchange for a 60-day ceasefire and a partial Israeli withdrawal from Gaza City operations. •That falls short of the "all or nothing" deal Netanyahu demanded last week, and the hardliners who have Netanyahu's ear - and could bring down his government - are vocally denouncing the proposal. •He will probably end up rejecting it, but - as The Economist pointed out - the fact that he hasn't already suggests his political calculus may have shifted slightly in light of last weekend's mass protests urging an end to the war and a hostage deal. UKRAINE •The White House says Pres. Putin has agreed to a direct bilateral meeting with Pres. Zelensky, followed - "if necessary" - by a trilateral meeting with Pres. Trump (though Trump thinks "it would be better" if Putin and Zelensky meet without him). •Despite Putin's theoretical agreement to a summit, the Kremlin is already dragging its feet on making one happen. A Russian deputy UN delegate complained about having "a meeting for the sake of a meeting," and Russia's Foreign Minister proposed some extra bureaucratic steps to stall planning. •Analysts say Putin isn't interested in talking to Zelensky except to accept Zelensky's capitulation. MEXICO •On Monday, the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) announced a "bold bilateral initiative" with Mexico to crack down on cartels smuggling drugs - including fentanyl - across the border into the U.S. •Mexico's Pres. Sheinbaum later said the DEA's announcement was premature, but she acknowledged that the two neighbors are indeed on the verge of signing a new security agreement that would significantly expand their collaboration against cartels. DRC •Human Rights Watch reported that Rwanda-backed M23 rebels summarily executed over 140 civilians in ethnic Hutu areas near Virunga National Park during July 2025. •The M23 didn't deny perpetrating the attacks, but it rejected claims that those slain were civilian farmers. The M23 insists - against evidence - that farmlands "do not exist" in the area. •In any case, it wasn't farmers that the M23 was after. The mostly-Tutsi M23 is seeking to root out militants from other armed groups, including the Hutu-led rival Rwandan group Forces Démocratiques de Libération du Rwanda (FDLR), which has been operating in the area for decades. •Survivors reported that some of the M23 attackers wore Rwandan military uniforms and spoke with Rwandan accents, corroborating multiple longstanding reports that Rwandan troops are actively involved in the M23's atrocities - despite Rwanda's Pres. Kagame's insistence to the contrary.
Open source reportOff Leash update 6 August GAZA •Israel is considering a plan to expand the war in Gaza and occupy the entire Gaza Strip - including the 25% it doesn't currently control. The cabinet will vote on the proposal tomorrow. •Prime Minister Netanyahu's far-right supporters love the idea, and - with ceasefire negotiations stalled and his fragile coalition at risk of fracture - Netanyahu seems to be warming to it, too. •However, some senior military figures - reportedly including Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir - have voiced dissent over fears that a full occupation would endanger the remaining ~20 living hostages and bog the IDF down for years. They prefer a more gradual approach: perhaps encircling Gaza City and other population centers first, and then selectively launching operations from there. BRAZIL •On Monday, Brazilian Supreme Court justice Alexandre de Moraes ordered former president - and Moraes's nemesis - Jair Bolsonaro into house arrest for violating a social media ban imposed during his ongoing trial on charges of plotting a coup, which Bolsonaro denies. •Other Brazilian officials - including Moraes's fellow Supreme Court justices - were apparently surprised by the order and worry that it will complicate ongoing trade talks with the U.S., given Pres. Trump's support for Bolsonaro and vocal opposition against the charges against the former president. SUDAN •Sudan's civil war has slowly shifted west since the Sudanese Army retook control of Khartoum in March. The army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are now battling over Kordofan, which lies between Darfur (largely under RSF control) and central Sudan (largely under army control). •Human rights groups say civilians in Kordofan are suffering the consequences of being at the crossroads of the war, and civilians in El Fasher - the only part of Darfur the army controls - are starving en masse under the RSF's siege of the city. •Neither side is gaining much traction, and the conflict looks likely to grind on.
Open source reportOff Leash update 4 August COMING UP THIS WEEK •August 6 and 9 are the 80th anniversaries of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. •New U.S. tariffs go into effect August 7 - unless frantic bilateral negotiations result in a deal before then. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,566/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $114,649 •Cobalt: $33,335/ton •Copper: $9,631/ton •Ethereum: $3,560 •Gold: $3,359/toz •Lead: $1,972/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.06/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $66.63/barrel •Zinc: $2,727/ton GAZA •Hamas posted videos showing two Israeli captives looking extremely emaciated, causing new concern for their well-being and adding to calls for a ceasefire and hostage release deal amidst similarly disturbing reports of rising starvation in Gaza. •Prime Minister Netanyahu expressed "profound shock" over the hostage videos, and proposed that the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) deliver food and medicine to the hostages. Hamas said it was open to the idea - but only under the unlikely condition that Israeli attacks "of all forms must cease during the receipt of packages for the prisoners.” •Despite the reinvigorated sense of urgency for a ceasefire, substantive negotiations remain stuck at an impasse. Frustrated U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff suggested shifting to an "all or nothing" ultimatum in which Israel would demand the release of all remaining hostages and Hamas's full disarmament in exchange for an end to the war. •Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu can't end the war without jeopardizing the far-right support his fragile coalition depends on, and his critics believe - probably correctly - that he'll prioritize his own political survival over signing a ceasefire deal that could bring down his government. •That's likely why the latest ultimatum attaches a condition that Hamas has already categorically rejected: its full disarmament. Instead, Hamas unconstructively declared that it will not disarm until the creation of an "independent, fully sovereign Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital." UKRAINE •With their independence newly restored, Ukraine's two anti-corruption agencies, NABU and SAPO, announced that they had disrupted a major bribery scheme in which crooked officials - including a lawmaker, local officials, and National Guardsmen - agreed to pay inflated prices for drones and other military kit in exchange for kickbacks of up to 30% of the contracts' value. SYRIA •Syrian state-run television reported that armed groups violated a shaky truce in predominantly Druze Sweida to attack government security forces there. •We may see more violations in the coming days: Sweida's Druze are growing agitated over what they call a government "blockade" cutting off their flow of supplies via a humanitarian corridor to Jordan. They want the government forces to fully withdraw from the region. SOUTH AFRICA •South African scientists injected five rhinos' horns with a radioactive material called Rhisotope - which they say is harmless to the rhinos but easily detectable by airport scanners - as part of a new anti-poaching campaign. Conservationists estimate that poachers have killed an average of more than one rhino per day in South Africa since 2021. (Editor note: those rhinos die to supply Chinese bachelor parties with what Chinese herbalists think is a natural version of Viagra. Instead of just using Viagra.)
Open source reportOff Leash update 25 July GAZA •After weeks of consideration, Hamas submitted its response to Israel's latest 60-day ceasefire proposal. •Hamas's response reportedly sought changes to the proposed clauses on humanitarian aid flows, post-truce areas of control, and - most contentiously - guarantees regarding an end to the war. •Specifically, Hamas wants Israel to commit to fully withdrawing from Gaza after the war, while Israel refuses to withdraw with Hamas still in control of the territory. •The U.S. and Israel promptly rejected Hamas's response and withdrew their negotiating teams from Qatar, and U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff angrily complained about Hamas's "lack of desire to reach a ceasefire." •Despite the U.S. and Israeli reaction, Hamas seemed surprised at how its response was received, and its officials remained optimistic that truce talks will continue next week. We'll see. •Meanwhile, the World Food Program estimated that one-third of Gaza's population of two million is currently "not eating for multiple days in a row." •Israel and the U.S. State Department blame Hamas for that: they - and the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation they back - allege that Hamas is systematically stealing humanitarian aid before it reaches hungry Gazans. (A new USAID study of 156 aid distribution incidents in June refutes this but acknowledges that an unacceptable share of aid falls through the cracks.) PALESTINIAN STATEHOOD •In a letter to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, Pres. Macron confirmed that France plans to recognize Palestinian statehood at this year's UN General Assembly in September, and will encourage its allies to do the same. •While most UN member states (147 of 193) recognize Palestine, France - which has Europe's largest Jewish and Muslim communities - would be the first G7 country to do so. •Israeli officials sharply criticized the long-expected announcement. Prime Minister Netanyahu said French recognition "rewards terror and risks creating another Iranian proxy," and Defense Minister Katz called it "a disgrace and a surrender to terrorism." VENEZUELA •Reuters reported that the U.S. is preparing a new authorization allowing Chevron to resume operations in Venezuela under stricter limitations than those defined in previous operating licenses that were cancelled in February. •Similar rights could then be extended to European oil companies - specifically, Italy's Eni and Spain's Repsol - under subsequent authorizations. •The newly tightened limitations would aim to force companies to swap certain imported supplies - rather than pay cash - for Venezuelan oil, thus further severing the Maduro regime's cash flow from oil sales. IRAN •Iran said it would allow inspectors from the UN's nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), to visit for the strictly limited purpose of reestablishing a working relationship between the IAEA and Iran. The visiting inspectors would not be allowed access to Iran's nuclear sites.
Open source reportOff Leash update 18 July SYRIA •Since taking power earlier this year, Syria's Pres. al Sharaa - a former jihadist - has carefully cultivated a new image as an inclusive statesman who has let go of past grievances, including against Israel. •However, Israel's airstrikes on Damascus this week have clearly tested al Sharaa's patience. In his sharpest public criticism yet, al Sharaa accused Israel of inciting "chaos" with its "wide-scale targeting of civilian and government facilities" in Damascus. •Prime Minister Netanyahu seemed to confirm reports that Israel used its airstrikes to bully al Sharaa's government into the latest ceasefire (which is still mostly holding up) when he said the truce was "achieved through strength." •Netanyahu seems resolute in his commitment to using Israel's military might to protect Syria's Druze: he vowed to block Syrian troops from deploying anywhere south of Damascus. UKRAINE •When Presidents Trump and Zelensky spoke by phone on July 4, Trump asked Zelensky about Ukraine's capacity to strike targets in Moscow and St. Petersburg. •The White House said Trump was "was merely asking a question, not encouraging further killing," but it seems Zelensky took the question as tacit approval to fire at Russia's largest and second-largest cities: Ukraine launched over 100* drones at the two cities yesterday. [*100 came from Russian reports - which usually seek to downplay Ukrainian battle strength - so the true number of Ukrainian drones was likely far higher.] •Separately, Ukraine announced two moves to reinvigorate its war effort with arms boosts. First, its Brave1 defense tech incubator launched a program offering Ukraine's front lines as a test bed for new weapons prototypes that allied countries want to test in action. Ukrainian troops will test the new models and report back on how they perform. •Second, Pres. Zelensky set a goal for Ukraine to produce 50% of its weapons domestically within the next six months, compared to the 40% it currently self-supplies. UK •The UK's incumbent Labour Party introduced a plan to lower the voting age to 16. Labour says the shift would bring new, youthful energy to British democracy. Naturally, it would also boost Labour's support: as in the U.S., younger voters in the UK tend to lean left. IRAN •A new U.S. intelligence assessment cautiously determined that last month's U.S. strikes on Iran badly damaged - and perhaps destroyed - the underground nuclear enrichment site at Fordo, and likely surgically destroyed the facilities (like centrifuges) at Isfahan and Natanz that would be used to enrich any surviving 60% uranium to weapons grade - though Isfahan and Natanz suffered less overall damage than Fordo. •That assessment corroborates claims that the strikes have set Iran's nuclear weapons program back years or even decades: even if Iran was able to shield some or all of its 60% uranium from the blasts, it likely does not have any surviving centrifuges to further enrich it to weapons grade. •Separately, additional intelligence reports suggest that Iran's Pres. Pezeshkian sustained minor leg injuries while fleeing an Israeli strike sometime around day four of their 12-day war. Pezeshkian, who is still open to nuclear talks with the U.S., was careful to clarify that: "It was not the United States that was behind the attempt on my life. It was Israel." DRC •DRC is reportedly close to finalizing a four-year football (soccer) sponsorship deal to pay FC Barcelona €10.0 to 11.5 million ($11.6 to 13.4 million) per year to place the slogan "The Heart of Africa" on its men's and women's training and warm-up jerseys, in a bid to attract tourists to DRC. •That follows similar deals DRC announced last month with AS Monaco and AC Milan. •DRC is probably hoping to emulate its regional rival Rwanda, which saw a 17% boost in tourist arrivals within a year of signing a jersey sponsorship deal with the UK's Arsenal football club.
Open source reportOff Leash update 7 July COMING UP THIS WEEK •Senior officials from BRICS countries - Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and the six non-founding countries admitted to the club later but excluded from its acronym - met in Brazil today and yesterday. Six leaders - including Presidents Xi and Putin - had more important things to do and sent representatives in their stead. •Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is visiting the White House today, marking his third visit since January. Pres. Trump expressed hope that his meeting with Netanyahu could help finalize a Gaza ceasefire deal in the next week. •Trump is also meeting the leaders of five African countries - Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mauritania, and Senegal - this week. Trade will be on the agenda: all five have significant untapped deposits of various natural resources but trade little with the U.S. •Wednesday is the postponed deadline for Pres. Trump's new tariffs to go into effect. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent has hinted that the deadline could be extended again to allow more time to secure bilateral trade deals. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,590/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $108,666 •Cobalt: $33,335/ton •Copper: $9,865/ton •Ethereum: $2,563 •Gold: $3,303/toz •Lead: $2,059/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.30/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $66.94/barrel •Zinc: $2,724/ton GAZA •Israel and Hamas both remained noncommittal but cautiously optimistic about the Egyptian- and Qatari-mediated (and U.S.-backed) ceasefire proposal currently on the table. •The terms of that proposal are still hazy, but early reports suggest it would provide for a 60-day ceasefire, during which Hamas would release 10 living hostages and 18 bodies in three separate batches (and Israel would release Palestinian prisoners) •Israel and Hamas would then start "proximity talks" - negotiations to hammer out the details - "as soon as possible," according to an Israeli diplomat. AFGHANISTAN •Russia became the first country to officially recognize Afghanistan's Taliban government, nearly four years after it regained control of the country. •Russia's foreign ministry said it looked forward to "productive bilateral cooperation between our countries in various fields" - which probably do not include strengthening democratic or human rights protections. VENEZUELA •Venezuela inaugurated the first Kalashnikov ammunition plant in the Americas last week. •Though the plant opened a day before Venezuela's independence day (July 5), it was not exactly an independent endeavor: it was built by the Kremlin's weapons export agency, Rosoboronexport, and will be operated by Russia's state-owned Rostec. IRAN •Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, appeared in public for the first time since the 12-day war with Israel to celebrate the Shia holiday of Ashura. •Khamenei hid out in a bunker during the war as Pres. Trump mused about assassinating him. There was little doubt that he had survived, but his supporters were nonetheless glad to see him alive and well. •Separately, the NYT wrote that Iran had hoped to use this week's BRICS summit to rally the group to condemn the U.S. strikes on its nuclear facilities at the end of the brief war, but failed to gain much traction. Russia, of course, leapt at the chance to criticize the U.S. for "unprovoked act of aggression," but China merely called for "restraint," and Brazil stayed out of it. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 16 June COMING UP THIS WEEK •Canada's new Prime Minister, Mark Carney, is hosting the 51st G7 summit today and tomorrow. •The biennial Paris Airshow opens today and runs through Thursday. Four Israeli firms - Elbit Systems, Rafael, IAI and Uvision - refused France's order to remove offensive weapons from their stands, and show organizers kicked them out. •Game 5 of the NBA Finals takes place tonight, followed by Game 6 on Thursday and Game 7 (if needed) on Sunday. The Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder are tied at two games each; the first to four wins. •Thursday is a U.S. holiday for Juneteenth. •Thursday is also the latest deadline for TikTok's Chinese parent company, Bytedance, to sell the short-video app's U.S. operations to a new owner or face a shutdown, but Pres. Trump may grant Bytedance yet another extension. COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,503/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Cobalt: $33,335/ton •Copper: $9,645/ton •Gold: $3,386/toz - up on geopolitical uncertainty over Iran-Israel fighting •Lead: $1,991/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.74/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $71.26/barrel - spiked over the weekend due to Iran-Israel fighting, but now down from weekend highs on reports that Iran wants a truce •Zinc: $2,623/ton IRAN •Iran and Israel continued to exchange missile strikes over the weekend and into today. Iran has reported 224 deaths from Israeli strikes, and Israel says Iran's strikes have killed 24 since Friday. •The International Atomic Energy Agency - the UN's nuclear agency - confirmed from satellite imagery that Israel's first barrage Friday destroyed Iran's above-ground nuclear enrichment plant at Natanz. Iran hides additional undisclosed enrichment operations underground where satellite photos can't see. •Prime Minister Netanyahu said Israel's strikes are being "fully co-ordinated" with the U.S., but that seems to be the extent of U.S. involvement for now. Pres. Trump said the U.S. "could get involved" further in the future, but he seemed optimistic that that won't be necessary because the situation "is going to get resolved." •Russia's Pres. Putin has offered to mediate between Israel and Iran, and there are rumors that Iran is ready to end the fighting. IRAQ •Long War Journal pointed out that Iran-backed militias in Iraq have issued vague threats towards the U.S. and Israel, but haven't actually joined Iran's strikes on Israel and are directing their rhetorical ire at the U.S. instead. •One of the militias, Kataib Hezbollah, issued a statement yesterday indicating it would leave it to Iran to "bravely and steadfastly confront the Zionist aggression" [meaning Israel] while it focuses instead on "monitoring the movements of the American enemy’s military in the region." •Another Iran-backed U.S.-designated terrorist group in Iraq, Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba, also focused its anger on the U.S. instead of Israel and called for U.S. forces to "be completely expelled from all Iraqi lands and airspace." •There have been at least two reports of attempted drone attacks on U.S. facilities in Iraq - one on Ain al Assad airbase in western Iraq, and another near the U.S. mission in Erbil. Neither attempt was claimed yet. U.S. TRAVEL BAN •The U.S. State Department said it identified 36 more "countries of concern" that are being considered for full or partial visa bans - in addition to the 12 full and seven partial visa bans announced earlier this month. •The 36 additional countries have 60 days to act to avoid a ban by lowering high overstay rates, resolving security issues, or addressing other U.S. grievances with their citizens' travel patterns.
Open source reportOff Leash update 12 June CHINA •Following two days of trade talks in London, the U.S. and China agreed on a framework for a longer-term detente in their trade war that would extend the temporary reciprocal tariff reprieve agreed last month. •The sticking point that kept last month's trade talks from reaching a lasting truce was China's refusal to lift export controls on rare earth minerals. U.S. officials seem content that the new framework resolves that impasse, but it's unclear whether it also addresses reciprocal non-tariff measures the U.S. imposed in response (such as curbs on Chinese student enrollment in U.S. universities). •The framework that came out of this week's summit will now be escalated to Presidents Trump and Xi for their approval. ECONOMY •A possible imminent U.S.-China trade deal wasn't factored into the World Bank's revised economic forecast released yesterday. That forecast predicted a decline in global economic growth from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.3% in 2025 - and a decline in U.S. economic growth forecast from 2.8% to 1.4% - due to trade wars like the one the U.S.-China framework aims to resolve. DRC •A new draft of a U.S. proposal for a Rwanda-DRC peace deal reportedly demands that Rwanda fully withdraw its troops from eastern DRC as a precondition for a ceasefire. •Rwanda's Pres. Kagame implausibly denies sending troops into DRC, but will nonetheless probably resist orders to withdraw them because he maintains they're necessary to counter vague threats from Hutu militias. SUDAN •Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) claimed it captured the strategic "triangle" region bordering Egypt and Libya. •The military - which has been fighting the RSF since April 2023 - seemed to corroborate the RSF's claim when it acknowledged that it retreated from the triangle region "as part of defensive arrangements to repel aggression." •Unverified local reports claimed that fighters loyal to Libya's eastern commander, Khalifa Haftar, crossed the border to help the RSF capture the triangle region. If confirmed, it would be the first known instance of Libyan meddling in Sudan's civil war. PAKISTAN •Likely jolted by last month's dust-up with India, Pakistan's military announced plans to boost its military spending by 20% to $9 billion for the fiscal year starting July 1. •That's a sharp increase - especially in the context of a 7% decrease in overall government spending for the next fiscal year. Parliament must still approve the budget. GAZA •In a letter to France's Pres. Macron and Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince MBS, Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas condemned Hamas's Oct. 7 attacks and called on Hamas to cede control of Gaza and release all hostages. •Abbas also promised various reforms to the PA, including new presidential elections to be held within a year. He has made and broken the same promise several times in the 29 years since the last presidential poll. •Abbas is hoping to meet Macron's conditions for recognizing Palestinian statehood as early as next week, and wants to position his PA to lead a potential new Palestinian nation. •Israel vehemently opposes Palestinian statehood, and has grown increasingly irritated with France for entertaining the idea. Prime Minister Netanyahu recently accused Pres. Macron of leading "a crusade against the Jewish state" by supporting Palestinian statehood. •Separately, five countries - Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, and the UK - slapped sanctions on two far-right Israeli ministers - interior minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and finance minister Bezalel Smotrich - for stoking settler violence in the West Bank and encouraging the expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 21 May GAZA •A day after Canada, France, and the UK criticized Israel for its "wholly disproportionate" war in Gaza, the UK paused its ongoing trade talks with Israel and announced new sanctions on Israelis accused of illegally settling in the West Bank and supporting violence against Palestinians. •Israel's Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, balked that its allies' criticisms have handed Hamas "a huge prize" and accused the allies of indirectly encouraging another Oct. 7-style attack. IRAN •CNN reported - citing new U.S. intelligence - that Israel is preparing a possible strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. •Though it's not clear whether Israel has approved a strike or only considered one, the possibility alone spooked oil markets and sent Brent crude futures up 1.3%. [Iran exports over 1.5 million barrels per day, which is the third-most in OPEC but still only ~1.4% of global production.] U.S. •Pres. Trump announced ambitious plans to build a "Golden Dome" missile defense system inspired by Israel's similarly-named "Iron Dome" network, which intercepts (most) incoming rockets and missiles. •The U.S. version would need to protect a far larger area, since the U.S. is 400 times larger than Israel. Estimates for the cost of a U.S. shield range from Trump's figure of $175 billion to a high Congressional Budget Office estimate of $542 billion. SYRIA •U.S. SecState Rubio told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that Pres. Trump decided to lift U.S. sanctions on Syria because it calculated that Syria's interim government was "maybe weeks, not many months, away from potential collapse and a full-scale civil war of epic proportions—basically the country splitting up" and needed urgent sanctions relief for the best chance at avoiding that nightmare scenario. •EU foreign ministers followed the U.S. lead and lifted the remaining economic sanctions on Syria yesterday, but they also introduced targeted sanctions on Syrians accused of abusing human rights and sowing sectarian violence. SUDAN •Sudan's army clashed with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Omdurman. •The army recaptured the nearby capital city of Khartoum from the RSF about two months ago, but it has struggled to regain control of the rest of the capital state amidst intense fighting in and around Omdurman. •The army now claims that the RSF has fled Omdurman, but ongoing gunfire suggests that claim may be premature. AFGHANISTAN •U.S. SecDef Hegseth announced a fresh inquiry into the military's chaotic 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan and appointed his chief spokesman - not a uniformed military officer - to lead the panel. The NYT noted that his unusual appointment "appeared to reflect a skepticism that uniformed military leaders would hold each other accountable." VENEZUELA •Venezuela freed a jailed U.S. Air Force veteran, Joseph St. Clair, in an olive branch that Caracas hopes will inspire Pres. Trump to extend Chevron's license to operate in Venezuela. •St. Clair was arrested in October at the border with Colombia, and the U.S. designated him "wrongfully detained."
Open source reportOff Leash update 20 May UKRAINE AND RUSSIA •Presidents Trump and Putin spoke by phone yesterday, but the two-hour call yielded no tangible progress towards peace. •Afterward, Trump encouraged Putin and Zelensky to negotiate directly, which the NYT called "a functional endorsement of Putin's position." Putin seemed happy, and reiterated his refrain that a ceasefire deal must "remove the root causes of this crisis" - i.e., Ukraine's sovereignty and westward shift. •Meanwhile, the NYT reported that Russia has been reinforcing bases on its tense border with Finland GAZA •Israel relaxed its monthslong blockade of Gaza to allow several food trucks in. Prime Minister Netanyahu said he decided to send "a basic quantity of food" after pressure from Israel's "closest friends in the world" - specifically, U.S. senators who expressed concern about an imminent "starvation crisis" in Gaza. •Shortly thereafter, Netanyahu announced a significant expansion of ground operations in Gaza, writing on social media: "We are going to take over all the areas of the Strip." •Canada, France, and the UK issued a joint statement criticizing Israel's expanded operations in Gaza and threatening to impose targeted sanctions on Israel over both the Gaza escalation and blockade and the growth of settlements in the West Bank. VENEZUELA •Venezuela's sanctioned Interior Minister, Diosdado Cabello, said - without offering any evidence - that authorities arrested 37 alleged mercenaries planning to disrupt this weekend's legislative elections by setting off explosives and collaborating with the opposition - two very different allegations. •Cabello said 21 of those arrested were Venezuelan and 17 were foreigners, but alleged that all of them entered Venezuela from Colombia. That helped justify a decision to suspend flights from Colombia to Venezuela for only a week. Flights will resume after the election. SUDAN •Sudan's military leader, Abdel Fatah al-Burhan, appointed former UN official Kamil Idris as the junta's prime minister. •This is the first time Sudan has had a prime minister since al-Burhan's 2021 coup. The African Union cheered the news as a step towards a return to civilian government - though with the Rapid Support Forces strafing the junta's interim capital in Port Sudan, the idea of civilian government still seems far off.
Open source reportOff Leash update 22 April 2025 RUSSIA AND UKRAINE •Perhaps swayed by U.S. pressure to figure out a ceasefire, Pres. Putin told reporters that he's open to direct bilateral peace talks with Ukraine. It would be the first time the warring neighbors have engaged in direct talks since the early weeks of the war in 2022. •The U.S. has proposed a broad ceasefire plan that it hopes Ukraine and Russia will agree to, but the U.S. plan lacks key details that could become sticking points as negotiations develop. ISRAEL •Prime Minister Netanyahu is facing a new political crisis after his domestic security chief, Ronen Bar, accused him of making multiple improper and politically-motivated requests. •Bar - whom Netanyahu unsuccessfully tried to sack last month - claimed in an audacious affidavit to the Supreme Court that Netanyahu pressured Bar's domestic security service (Shin Bet) to spy on Israeli citizens involved in anti-government protests, asked Bar to side with him over the Supreme Court if a constitutional crisis should ever split allegiances, and tried to cajole Bar into signing an opinion that would have effectively pardoned Netanyahu from corruption charges he faces. [Netanyahu rejected Bar's letter as a "false statement" and said he plans to refute Bar's claims "in detail."] •Bar's bold accusations aren't as much of a threat to Netanyahu's political survival as the corruption charges he's contesting in court, but they give the Prime Minister's critics additional grounds to call for his resignation - which won't be forthcoming. SUDAN •The European Commission and its member states marked the end of this week's high-level summit on the war in Sudan - which excluded both parties fighting in it - with aid pledges totaling €522 million ($600 million). That's almost exactly double the amount the European Union earmarked for Sudan last year, but it doesn't come close to filling the $3.8 billion gap in additional emergency funding that the UN says Sudan still needs for 2025. •The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) weren't invited to the summit and continued fighting instead. The SAF accused the RSF of killing over 30 civilians yesterday in the course of its offensive to capture El Fasher, which is the capital of North Darfur and the only major city in Darfur that the RSF doesn't control. VENEZUELA •Venezuela bluntly rejected a proposal from El Salvador's Pres. Bukele to swap 252 Venezuelans deported from the U.S. to Salvadoran jail for the same number of political prisoners swept up in Pres. Maduro's post-election crackdown. •Maduro's attorney general, Tarek Saab (who is under U.S., UK, and EU sanctions for helping Maduro repress democracy in Venezuela), called Bukele's swap proposal "cynical" and accused Bukele of being a (fellow) "serial human rights violator" for his crackdown on gang violence. •Some Venezuelan opposition figures quickly welcomed Bukele's proposal, but their main leader, Maria Corina Machado, has yet to comment on it. VATICAN •Pope Francis passed away yesterday at age 88. Argentine-born Francis was the first non-European pope in over 1200 years, and he broke from his European predecessors in many ways: becoming the first pope to visit the birthplace of Islam (Saudi Arabia), refusing to judge homosexuals or divorcées, and overseeing radical (by Vatican standards) institutional change - though, as The Economist pointed out, "not as much [change] as he hoped." •A conclave of 135 cardinals under age 80 - all but 27 of whom were appointed by Francis - will now choose the next spiritual leader of the world's ~1.4 billion baptized Roman Catholics.
Open source reportOff Leash update 22 April 2025 RUSSIA AND UKRAINE •Perhaps swayed by U.S. pressure to figure out a ceasefire, Pres. Putin told reporters that he's open to direct bilateral peace talks with Ukraine. It would be the first time the warring neighbors have engaged in direct talks since the early weeks of the war in 2022. •The U.S. has proposed a broad ceasefire plan that it hopes Ukraine and Russia will agree to, but the U.S. plan lacks key details that could become sticking points as negotiations develop. ISRAEL •Prime Minister Netanyahu is facing a new political crisis after his domestic security chief, Ronen Bar, accused him of making multiple improper and politically-motivated requests. •Bar - whom Netanyahu unsuccessfully tried to sack last month - claimed in an audacious affidavit to the Supreme Court that Netanyahu pressured Bar's domestic security service (Shin Bet) to spy on Israeli citizens involved in anti-government protests, asked Bar to side with him over the Supreme Court if a constitutional crisis should ever split allegiances, and tried to cajole Bar into signing an opinion that would have effectively pardoned Netanyahu from corruption charges he faces. [Netanyahu rejected Bar's letter as a "false statement" and said he plans to refute Bar's claims "in detail."] •Bar's bold accusations aren't as much of a threat to Netanyahu's political survival as the corruption charges he's contesting in court, but they give the Prime Minister's critics additional grounds to call for his resignation - which won't be forthcoming. SUDAN •The European Commission and its member states marked the end of this week's high-level summit on the war in Sudan - which excluded both parties fighting in it - with aid pledges totaling €522 million ($600 million). That's almost exactly double the amount the European Union earmarked for Sudan last year, but it doesn't come close to filling the $3.8 billion gap in additional emergency funding that the UN says Sudan still needs for 2025. •The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) weren't invited to the summit and continued fighting instead. The SAF accused the RSF of killing over 30 civilians yesterday in the course of its offensive to capture El Fasher, which is the capital of North Darfur and the only major city in Darfur that the RSF doesn't control. VENEZUELA •Venezuela bluntly rejected a proposal from El Salvador's Pres. Bukele to swap 252 Venezuelans deported from the U.S. to Salvadoran jail for the same number of political prisoners swept up in Pres. Maduro's post-election crackdown. •Maduro's attorney general, Tarek Saab (who is under U.S., UK, and EU sanctions for helping Maduro repress democracy in Venezuela), called Bukele's swap proposal "cynical" and accused Bukele of being a (fellow) "serial human rights violator" for his crackdown on gang violence. •Some Venezuelan opposition figures quickly welcomed Bukele's proposal, but their main leader, Maria Corina Machado, has yet to comment on it. VATICAN •Pope Francis passed away yesterday at age 88. Argentine-born Francis was the first non-European pope in over 1200 years, and he broke from his European predecessors in many ways: becoming the first pope to visit the birthplace of Islam (Saudi Arabia), refusing to judge homosexuals or divorcées, and overseeing radical (by Vatican standards) institutional change - though, as The Economist pointed out, "not as much [change] as he hoped." •A conclave of 135 cardinals under age 80 - all but 27 of whom were appointed by Francis - will now choose the next spiritual leader of the world's ~1.4 billion baptized Roman Catholics.
Open source reportOff Leash update 8 April 2025 COMING UP THIS WEEK •Qatar is set to mediate DRC-M23 peace talks starting tomorrow - if neither side walks away before then. •U.S. inflation data for March will be published on Thursday. Economists expect slow price growth for March, but anticipate a sharp rise in inflation this month once new tariffs are passed through to consumers. •Golf's Masters Tournament runs Thursday through Sunday at Augusta National. •U.S.-Iran talks will resume Saturday (see below for more). •Next weekend will see presidential elections in Gabon on Saturday and Ecuador (a run-off) on Sunday. •Beijing will host the world's first half marathon featuring humanoid robot runners - in addition to real humans - on Sunday. •Sunday is also the date of the annual University Boat Race between Oxford and Cambridge. To paraphrase a commentator for the 1949 race, I don't know who will win but it's either Oxford or Cambridge. COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,371/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $28,950/ton •Cobalt: $33,700/ton •Copper: $8,732/ton •Gold: $3,006/toz - slightly off record highs of ~$3,120/toz •Lead: $1,870/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.64/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $60.94/barrel •Zinc: $2,614/ton IRAN •In an unexpected development, Pres. Trump announced that the U.S. and Iran will engage in direct* nuclear talks starting Saturday in Oman. •*Iran confirmed that it will participate in talks with the U.S. starting Saturday, but said the first round will be conducted indirectly via mediators, with direct talks to follow if this round goes well. [Ayatollah Khamenei has ruled out direct talks with the U.S. while Trump's "maximum pressure" policy is in place. ] •Trump threatened that Iran would be "in great danger" if the talks fail. They could well fail if U.S. negotiators make heavy-handed demands that a weakened and insecure Iran would feel compelled to reject - such as ordering Iran to completely dismantle its nuclear programs. •Separately, The Washington Post reported that Iranian tried to hire a Georgian drug trafficker to assassinate Rabbi Shneor Segal, the Chief Rabbi of Baku's Ashkenazi community, in Azerbaijan. Azerbaijani security services thwarted the hit in January. TRADE •Pres. Trump told reporters that his new reciprocal tariffs are simultaneously permanent and open to negotiation - "because there are things that we need beyond tariffs." •So far, only China (reciprocal tariff rate: 34%) and Canada (25%) have retaliated to U.S. reciprocal tariffs with new levies of their own. •The European Union (20%) is reportedly considering retaliating with a 25% tariff on a limited set of goods initially, but the bloc has also offered to completely remove tariffs on some products if the U.S. does the same. Ultimately, European officials suggest they hope to find a compromise to revert to lower tariffs, but they've threatened to expand the range of goods subject to tariffs if compromise proves elusive. •Most countries targeted with new reciprocal tariffs have resisted retaliating and instead plan to either offer concessions or try to negotiate. •Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu rushed back to the White House for talks on both stalled hostage negotiations and tariff relief. Netanyahu pledged to eliminate Israel's trade surplus with the U.S. by buying more U.S. goods and asked Trump to lift the tariff he imposed on Israel (17%) in return. Trump demurred, citing the $4 billion in annual aid the U.S. gives Israel - "that's a lot." •The Prime Minister of Japan (24%), Ishiba Shigeru, said he would also visit the White House soon to plea for tariff relief. •Vietnam (46%) reportedly offered to remove all tariffs on U.S. goods if the U.S. returns the favor. 1/
Open source reportOff Leash update 13 March 2025 UKRAINE •Having secured Ukraine's tentative agreement to Pres. Trump's 30-day ceasefire proposal, U.S. officials landed in Moscow to pitch the plan to Russia. •Russia seems lukewarm on the proposal. A Kremlin aide called it "nothing more than a short reprieve for Ukrainian forces," and complained that a 30-day truce merely gives Ukraine a break from fighting. •Russia favors a more permanent truce that solidifies its territorial gains, and has reportedly responded to the U.S. proposal with a list of demands that must be met before it agrees to a ceasefire. •Meanwhile Russia retook Sudzha, and has now nearly recaptured all of the Kursk region from Ukrainian forces who captured parts of it in recent months. Pres. Putin visited troops in Sudzha to show that the city - which was the largest Kursk settlement Ukraine captured - is now firmly back under Russian control. SYRIA •Interim Pres. Sharaa appointed a seven-man committee to investigate reports that his new government's forces are stoking sectarian violence and carrying out human rights abuses - including summary executions - against civilians in Alawite strongholds in western Syria. The committee will report its findings back to Sharaa within 30 days. •The Syrian Network for Human Rights, an NGO, estimates that at least 779 people have died in sectarian skirmishes in recent weeks, with government forces and pro-Assad militias each responsible for about half of those deaths. GAZA •A new UN report accused Israel of carrying out "genocidal acts" against Gazans by restricting medical supplies for maternity wards. Prime Minister Netanyahu immediately rejected the report's findings, calling them biased and anti-Semitic. PAKISTAN •Pakistan's military said it concluded its operation to rescue the estimated 400 hostages that the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) captured after hijacking a train near Quetta on Tuesday. •The military freed around 300 of the hostages, but the BLA claimed that it executed 50 of the others to punish the Pakistani government for refusing to agree to a prisoner swap. •The episode was another sign that Karachi is struggling to contain the BLA's separatist militancy. CHINA •Taiwan's Pres. Lai accused China of escalating its "influence campaigns and manipulation" on the island in an effort to "absorb" it, and said that his government charged 64 people - mostly current of former Chinese military officials - with spying for China in 2024. •In response to Beijing's "infiltration," Lai vowed to introduce counter measures like more rigorous scrutiny of Chinese citizens' applications for Taiwanese residency. DRC •The Southern African Development Community (SADC) said it will conduct a "phased withdrawal" of its regional troops from eastern DRC, where at least 15 of them have died in recent fighting. •Having failed to keep the peace in eastern DRC, the SADC is now urging a "diplomatic and political solution" to the conflict. •Angola will mediate peace talks between DRC and the M23 next week. GREENLAND •Greenland's centre-right Demokraatit Party unexpectedly won the largest share of yesterday's vote, with around 30% support. •The Demokraatit Party favors gradual independence from Denmark, and will try to form a government that takes the territory in that direction. In addition, party leader Jens-Frederik Nielsen has vocally opposed Pres. Trump's suggestion that the U.S. could acquire Greenland, and will likely rebuff Trump's future overtures towards the island. VENEZUELA •U.S. envoy Richard Grenell announced on X that deportation flights to Venezuela will resume tomorrow. Pres. Maduro's government briefly blocked the flights to retaliate for the U.S. suspension of Chevron's operating license in Venezuela, but apparently has now reversed course under U.S. pressure. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 26 Feb Syria •Syria's interim president, Ahmed al Sharaa, opened a two-day conference in Damascus yesterday. •Al Sharaa hopes to use the event to win support from the diverse factions in attendance for his unity government, but one key faction is missing: the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led militia that controls northeast Syria. •Al Sharaa would prefer to include the SDF, but didn't invite it to this summit because the SDF refused to agree to his condition to disarm. The SDF doesn't want to disarm because - as its commander, Gen. Mazloum Abdi, told BBC recently - "we are still at war with Turkey and its proxies." •Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu called for the "complete demilitarization" of southern Syria on Sunday, and Pres. al Sharaa responded yesterday by demanding that Israel withdraw from the Syrian positions it grabbed as Assad's government fell. Israel then showed it has no plans to withdraw by launching airstrikes on what the army described as "military targets in southern Syria, including headquarters and sites containing weapons." Ukraine •U.S. and Ukrainian officials announced that they'd reached a deal that would grant the U.S. a share of Ukrainian mineral revenues. •The specific terms of their agreement aren't yet clear because the final translated draft hasn't been released, but early reports suggest the U.S. would give Ukraine security guarantees in return for up to half of the revenues from Ukraine's future mineral sales. Russia •The EU revealed the targets of its 16th round of sanctions that was announced last week to mark the third anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Among the 48 individuals sanctioned was chess grandmaster Sergey Karjakin, who vocally endorsed the invasion and became a Russian senator representing Crimea. DRC •The UN's World Food Program estimated that around one million people have been displaced by fighting in eastern DRC in the first two months of 2025. That's roughly equivalent to the full-time population of Goma. It also seems debatable: other reports suggest that life in Goma and Bukavu is returning to semi-normal under Rwandan and rebel control. •The UK suspended its aid to Rwanda over Kigali's invasion of eastern DRC. Rwanda grumbled about the "punitive" suspension and accused the UK of having "clearly chosen a side." •Burundi chose Kinshasa's side too, and local reports noted Burundian soldiers heading to Uvira alongside pro-Kinshasa militias. •As if DRC needed more to worry about, health authorities reported the outbreak of what seems to be a new, deadly, and still unidentified illness in the northwest. The mystery disease started with three children who got sick after eating a bat; it has now infected over 430 people and killed at least 53 of them. Tests have ruled out Ebola and Marburg viruses. •Separately, Reuters reported that Kinshasa is considering imposing quotas on cobalt exports, and will evaluate the idea during the four-month export ban it announced Monday. Gaza •Hamas and Israel said they'd reached a deal to trade 600+ Palestinian prisoners for the remains of four slain hostages. Israel was supposed to free these prisoners last weekend, but postponed their release over anger at Hamas's darkly theatrical hostage release ceremonies. •The Times of Israel reported that Hamas has agreed not to dramatize today's swap - but it also noted that it broke a similar promise last time. China •Taiwan's coast guard detained a Chinese-linked cargo ship that it suspects of severing a subsea cable yesterday. China said the incident was just a "common maritime accident" and warned Taiwan against casting blame "while the basic facts and the people responsible for the accident have not yet been clarified." 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 19 Feb DRC •The situation in eastern DRC is unraveling quickly, with both Rwanda and Uganda now actively fighting to tear off pieces of DRC in a manner akin to how the Soviets and Nazis raced to rip Poland into pieces. •After capturing Bukavu over the weekend, Rwandan troops are continuing south and captured Kamanyo yesterday. Their next target could be the city of Uvira. •Meanwhile, Ugandan troops invaded Bunia in the north and called on Congolese forces there to surrender their weapons within 24 hours. The Ugandans appear to be heading for Butembo, and are attacking all Congolese army positions along the way. Ukraine •Senior U.S. and Russian delegations - led by SecState Rubio and Foreign Minister Lavrov - met in Saudi Arabia yesterday for the most significant direct talks between their countries in years. •The main purpose of their summit was to align on a path towards ending the war in Ukraine, but they also agreed to explore what Rubio called "the incredible opportunities that exist to partner with the Russians, geopolitically...and economically" - though Rubio also noted that U.S. sanctions on Russia will remain in place, for now. •European leaders who were left out of the summit - Ukraine's Pres. Zelensky most of all - expressed disappointment that the U.S. would so easily embrace a geopolitical rival after years of leading multilateral efforts to isolate it, and complained that Ukraine must be included in meetings about its future. •Zelensky's complaints about being left out drew a sharp rebuke from Pres. Trump, who appeared to blame Ukraine for being invaded and failing to launch peace talks sooner: "You should have never started it. You could have made a deal." [Trump also taunted Zelensky's low approval ratings, though he cited an inaccurate figure of 4%. Zelensky won 57% approval in the latest survey reported.] •Former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson observed that "Trump’s statements are not intended to be historically accurate but to shock Europeans into action." It seems to be working: EU leaders are organizing another, more inclusive emergency summit on Ukraine tomorrow. Gaza •Hamas reportedly extended an unsolicited offer - apparently at Egypt's behest - to kick off the second phase of ceasefire negotiations with Israel. Under its offer, Hamas would release all of its remaining hostages and hand over control of Gaza to the Palestinian Authority (which governs the West Bank), in exchange for a permanent ceasefire and full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. •Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu bluntly shut the idea down in a post on X: "Not going to happen." Netanyahu is committed to disarming Hamas and evicting it from Gaza altogether - conditions which Hamas has rejected and called "ridiculous psychological warfare." •Meanwhile, Egypt's Pres. Al Sisi will present his broader vision for Gaza in Riyadh tomorrow. Al Sisi's plan is said to call on Arab states to contribute up to to $20 billion to rebuild Gaza. Egyptian and Jordanian diplomats said (off the record) that Pres. Trump has agreed to the Egyptian plan, which was concocted as an alternative to Trump's initial proposal that controversially called for Gazans to be resettled elsewhere. Sudan •Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) said that it, too, plans to form a new government for Sudan. The RSF's government will rival the new government the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) recently said it would form as soon as it retakes Khartoum from the RSF. •The RSF and SAF have been fighting each other in a grueling civil war for nearly two years, so it was pretty clear that their former alliance was over. This week's news that they both intend to establish rival governments merely formalizes their split. •Side note: The fact that the RSF made its announcement from a government convention center in Nairobi, Kenya seems to corroborate the SAF's claims that Kenya is supporting the RSF. Syria 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 5 Feb Israel and Gaza •Pres. Trump received Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at the White House yesterday. •Netanyahu was the first foreign leader Trump invited to visit during his new term, and analysts suggested Trump's invitation was intended to mend bilateral ties that Trump's envoys tested by pushing Netanyahu to agree to a Gaza ceasefire deal that Netanyahu's hardline supporters opposed. •Following their meeting, Trump proposed that the U.S. take control of the Gaza Strip after permanently relocating the two million Palestinians living there to "other countries of interest with humanitarian hearts." It's not clear which other countries would accept permanently-displaced Palestinians: Egypt and Jordan have both rejected Trump's request to take them in. Syria •Pres. Al Sharaa continued his first foreign tour with a visit to Turkiye, which is home to about three million Syrian refugees. •Turkiye has offered to help train and equip Syria's new army - in part, because it wants to ensure Kurdish groups like the People's Protection Units (YPG) aren't welcome in the new force. •Al Sharaa, on the other hand, wants the new army to be more inclusive, and said he has "asked [Turkiye] to wait in order to give space for the negotiations" with the YPG and other Kurdish groups. Turkiye seems to be obliging for now, but may feel pushed to intervene if Al Sharaa prolongs negotiations. •Al Sharaa also gave his first media interview since becoming interim president to The Economist, and it was a bit testier than his recent pronouncements promising inclusivity and peace. He warned Israel of "trouble in the future" if it keeps control of the terrain it captured as the Assad regime fell in December, and called the U.S. military presence in eastern Syria "illegal." •Al Sharaa was vague about his plans for elections and democratic governance, only offering that the country was "heading in the direction of" democracy. North Korea •A Ukrainian commander told Business Insider that the North Korean soldiers his company fought against in Russia were treated like "cannon fodder" and "would just charge forward from the tree line, like in a World War II movie." •His account of the North Koreans' unconventional battle tactics was consistent with other reports of their chaotic and seemingly fearless battlefield movements. Russia has since withdrawn the (reportedly decimated) North Korean units from the front lines, and some analysts have speculated they're being retrained in modern battle tactics before they return to the front lines.
Open source reportOff leash update 24 Dec Mozambique •Mozambique's highest court reaffirmed official election results naming the ruling Frelimo party's candidate, Daniel Chapo, the new president. •Opposition candidate Venâncio Mondlane - who came in second and fled the country just after the poll - had threatened a "new popular uprising" if the court didn't reverse results in his favor, and called on his supporters to stage new protests after the court's decision yesterday. They complied, turning out in droves to chant his name and throw rocks at police. Gaza and Yemen •Prime Minister Netanyahu told Israeli lawmakers that "some progress" had been made towards a ceasefire and hostage release deal, but added "I don't know how long it will take." •Meanwhile, Israeli defense minister Israel Katz publicly acknowledged that Israel was behind the July assassination of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. It was always widely assumed that Israel was responsible, but this is the first time an Israeli official confirmed it. •Katz's comment on Haniyeh came in the context of a threat to Houthi leaders: "We will strike hard at the Houthis ... and decapitate their leadership – just as we did with Haniyeh, Sinwar, and Nasrallah in Tehran, Gaza, and Lebanon, we will do so in Hodeida and Sanaa." •The Houthis lobbed another ballistic missile towards Israel - their third in under a week - and vowed to keep firing "until the aggression against our people in Gaza stops." This missile was easily intercepted - though some Israelis suffered injuries while fleeing to shelter. Syria •Jordanian and Qatari diplomats visited Damascus to court Syria's new leaders. Most Arab countries broke ties with Assad after his 2011 crackdown on dissent, but they now see Syria's transition as a chance to rebuild relations with the new government. •Armed men torched a Christmas tree in the mostly-Christian Syrian town of Suqaylabiyah, and it sparked an uproar among Christians and other minority groups in Syria, who are skeptically waiting to see if the former Islamists now running the country will do as much as they've promised to preserve minority rights. •The UN's International, Impartial and Independent Mechanism for Syria - which was founded in 2016 to investigate ex-Pres. Assad's war crimes - said Syria's new government is "very receptive" to its efforts to gather evidence against Assad. Of course it is: many of Assad's worst crimes targeted rebels like them. North Korea •U.S. intelligence officials said that Kim Jong Un sent troops to support Pres. Putin - who Kim has called his "closest comrade" - on his own volition, and not because Putin asked for his help. •That's a shift from the initial narrative, which suggested Putin pleaded for Kim's help because he was suffering high casualty rates in Ukraine and desperately needed more soldiers (it now seems the North Koreans in Ukraine are being plucked off quickly, so they're proving to be poor reinforcements anyway). Venezuela •Pres. Maduro's loyal Attorney General, Tarek Saab, announced that 233 more political prisoners were be released in a belated Christmas gift (Christmas began Oct. 1 in Venezuela, per Maduro's decree). •Saab claims the government has now released 956 prisoners - of the ~2,000 arrested during Maduro's post-election crackdown - but rights groups haven't been able to independently corroborate that count. Other News •El Salvador's president, Nayib Bukele, overturned a years long ban on mining in the country and expressed hope that rich gold reserves could "transform" the economy. Environmentalists are appalled. •Earlier today, NASA's unmanned Parker Solar Probe flew closer to the sun than any earthman-made spacecraft has before, coming within 3.8 million miles (6.1 million km) of the star's surface.
Open source reportOff Leash update 18 Dec Russia •Ukraine claimed responsibility for yesterday's assassination of Russian general Igor Kirillov in Moscow, justifying the hit as retribution for orchestrating the "massive use of banned chemical weapons" against Ukraine as chief of Russia's nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons protection forces. •The U.S. was no fan of Kirillov, who frequently promoted unproven propaganda campaigns against the West. Nonetheless, U.S. officials reportedly tried to dissuade Ukraine from targeting the general on Russian soil out of concern that such a high-profile assassination could provoke Pres. Putin to lash out in revenge. Syria •Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu paid an unannounced visit to Mount Hermon in Syria and declared that Israeli forces would remain there on a temporary but indefinite basis, "until another arrangement is found that guarantees Israel’s security." •Syria's new leadership saw Netanyahu's declaration as an affront to the sovereignty they hope to establish in Syria. •As part of that quest for legitimacy, Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) chief - and self-proclaimed "president" of Syria - Ahmed al Shara announced the dissolution of all independent armed groups in the country and the integration of all fighters under a unified Defense Ministry. That seems ambitious, given that these factions have little in common except a former mutual enemy - ex-Pres. Assad - who's now out of the picture. •Some rebel factions are busy waging their own wars. In the northeast, the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) agreed to extend their temporary ceasefire "to the end of the week." After that, the Institute for the Study of War expects the SNA - perhaps alongside Turkish troops - to try to capture Kobani and other SDF-held territory. Gaza •Hamas said it is involved in "serious and positive talks" about a ceasefire in Gaza, and U.S. CIA Director Burns is in Qatar for meetings to try to finalize a truce and hostage release deal. Optimism is higher than usual, but hopes for a deal have been dashed before. Iran •A new Reuters report estimated that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) now controls up to half Iran's oil exports - a marked rise from the 20% of oil exports it controlled three years ago. •One reason for bringing a greater share of oil exports under the IRGC is that it gives the IRGC direct control of the estimated $25 billion per year in revenues its share generates. That represents a huge part - nearly half - of the government's $53 billion annual budget, and presumably the vast majority of the funds the IRGC spends supporting its proxies and allies abroad. •It's also easier for the IRGC than it is for private oil traders to flout Western sanctions: the IRGC is already a U.S.-designated terrorist organization, so the threat of more sanctions certainly won't encourage cooperation with a geopolitical rival. Venezuela •Venezuela's opposition president-elect, Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, accepted the European Union's Sakharov Prize for human rights at the European Parliament yesterday. •In a speech after accepting the prize, Gonzalez vowed to go "back to Venezuela by land, air or sea" in time to be inaugurated as Venezuela's rightful president on Jan. 10. [Pres. Maduro - who all independent evidence suggests lost the July election to Gonzalez - is also planning to be inaugurated on Jan. 10.] •Meanwhile, even friendly Canada has slapped sanctions on some senior Venezuelan officials who helped Maduro steal the election. New sanctions target the head of the supreme court, two judges, a prosecutor, and a member of the electoral body. Mozambique •After battering Mayotte - where authorities are still assessing the extent of the damage - Cyclone Chido hit Mozambique, killing at least 34 and destroying over 23,000 homes. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 16 DEC Coming Up This Week •The U.S. Federal Reserve Board meets for the last time in 2024 on Wednesday. The market expects the Fed to cut target interest rates this week but signal a slower pace of rate cuts for 2025. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,605/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $33,550/ton •Cobalt: $24,300/ton •Copper: $9,053/ton •Gold: $2,655/toz •Lead: $2,010/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.22/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $71.06/barrel •Zinc: $3,096/ton Syria •SecState Blinken confirmed that U.S. officials have been in direct contact with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) - the rebel group leading the coalition that ousted Pres. Assad. It was the first formal confirmation that Washington is engaging the likely leaders of Syria's new government - who remain designated terrorists. •Satellite images seemed to show Russian troops packing up some equipment to leave Syria. Media reports suggest Russia is only scaling back but intends to maintain a smaller presence in Syria - concentrated at Hmeimim airbase in Latakia and Tartous naval base - going forward. •Meanwhile, Israel seems to be preparing for a prolonged presence along the border with Syria: Defense Minister Katz ordered troops to prepare to spend the winter deployed to Mount Hermon "due to what is happening in Syria." Israel hopes its troop presence can prevent hostile forces from filling the vacuum Assad's fleeing army left behind. •For similar reasons, Israel also announced plans to double its population in the Golan Heights, which it captured from Syria in 1967 and has occupied since. Prime Minister Netanyahu explained that expanding the Israeli presence on the strategic plateau will help "thwart the potential threats from Syria and to prevent the takeover of terrorist elements near our border." Russia •Two Russian oil tankers ran into trouble in the Black Sea yesterday: bad weather caused one to sink and another to run aground. Environmentalists are concerned about the 4,300 tons of fuel oil that sank with the Volgoneft-212, and Russian investigators opened inquiries into possible safety violations on both ships. Israel •Ireland filed an intervention at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in support of South Africa's genocide case against Israel (which is not a member of the ICJ and doesn't recognize ICJ's jurisdiction). •Ireland's filing enraged Israel's foreign minister, who complained that "Ireland has crossed every red line in its relationship with Israel" and said Israel would close its embassy in Dublin. Ireland will retain its embassy in Tel Aviv, and bilateral diplomatic relations will continue through that channel. Sahel •Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger agreed to a longer cooling-off period before they formally withdraw from the Economic Community of African States (ECOWAS) regional bloc. •All three countries' juntas hastily announced their intention to leave ECOWAS in Jan. 2024 and were due to formally exit the group Jan. 29, 2025. However, they'll now have another six months to entertain the bloc's last-ditch pleas to change their "irreversible" decisions to leave. Other News •Cyclone Chido ravaged the Indian Ocean islands of Mayotte Friday, leaving hundreds - or possibly thousands - feared dead. Mayotte is an overseas territory of France with a per capita GDP of just $11,850, making it the poorest place in the European Union. France has sent rescuers and will probably need to fund reconstruction. •South Korea's National Assembly impeached Pres. Yoon Suk Yeol over his quasi-coup attempt. The Constitutional Court will now decide whether to reinstate the unpopular Yoon or remove him from office. •Germany's Chancellor Scholz lost a no-confidence vote in Germany's parliament today, setting the stage for early elections in Feb. 2025.
Open source reportOff Leash update 13 Dec Iran The head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC), Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami, offered state media some comments on the rapid upheaval that ousted Pres. Assad last week. Salami claimed the IRGC fought with Assad until the end - "the last person who left the battlefield was an IRGC soldier" - but is now adjusting to the new geopolitical "realities" of post-Assad Syria. That seems like a pointed message to the rebels the IRGC previously helped Assad assault - those who now control Syria - that Iran is accepting their victory and abandoning Assad. Syria Rebels raiding ex-Pres. Assad's palace discovered Borat among the deposed dictator's DVDs. I hope Sacha Baron Cohen autographed that copy with the same dedication he offered Assad in a 2012 press conference: "my dear friend and doubles-tennis partner, President Assad of Syria." [Cohen was in character as Gen. Aladeen of The Dictator, and went on to praise the United Nations for its inaction in Syria with biting satire.] The NYT reported that U.S. intelligence is carefully reevaluating its designation of the group leading the rebellion - Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) - as a "terrorist organization." HTS's precursors and current leaders earned the designation on merit when they aligned with Al Qaeda and Islamic State, but it now claims to have severed ties with terrorists and is paying much lip service to governance. Repealing the designation would make it easier for the U.S. to work with Syria's new leadership as it begins reconstruction. Meanwhile, Israel's military said it would stay in Syria until the establishment of "a new force" that can prevent anti-Israel militants from filling the void and using Syrian territory to attack Israel. Critics worry the Israeli presence could become permanent. Gaza U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan is still hopeful for a Israel-Hamas ceasefire "this month." Sullivan has been meeting with Israeli officials - including Prime Minister Netanyahu - this week, and left meetings optimistic that "the surround sound of these negotiations is different today than it has been in the past." However, Sullivan conceded that a deal still "might not happen," and there are no indications of a breakthrough on the sticking points that have doomed past deal proposals. Next he'll visit Egypt and Qatar to meet with mediators to discuss Hamas's position. With a peace deal still elusive, Israel continued to target terrorists in Gaza. One airstrike on the refugee camp of Nuseirat in central Gaza targeted a Palestinian Islamic Jihad leader and killed over 30 people. Ukraine Russia's ground forces are pushing towards the Donetsk transit hub of Pokrovsk amidst "extremely fierce" fighting. They're now within three miles (five kilometers) of the city's outskirts. Ukraine's top military leader, Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, lamented that a successful defense of Pokrovsk will require "unconventional decisions." Syrsky didn't elaborate on what form those decisions may take, but on two similar occasions in the past - in Kharkiv in 2022 and in Kursk earlier this year - Ukraine launched surprise offensives along new fronts to draw Russian attention and resources from a desperate defensive line elsewhere. We'll see if Syrsky draws on the same playbook this time. Russia also launched a new air barrage on Ukrainian infrastructure targets overnight, forcing Ukraine into yet another round of emergency power outages. China Pres.-elect Trump invited China's Pres. Xi Jinping to attend his inauguration in Washington on Jan. 20, 2025. Xi hasn't publicly RSVPed yet. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 11 Dec Gaza •Ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas are said to be gaining steam under pressure from Pres.-elect Trump to close a deal soon. [Last week, Trump threatened that there would be "ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East" if hostages weren't released before his inauguration on Jan. 20]. •However, there are no indications that either side has relented on the sticking point that stalled prior talks: Hamas doesn't want to release the rest of its hostages until Israel completely withdraws from Gaza, and Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu has vowed to stay and fight in Gaza until Hamas is evicted from the strip. •Qatar's Prime Minister Al Thani - who is a central mediator between Israel and Hamas - said most of the mechanics of a deal have been worked out, but noted that prospects for an agreement will boil down to whether either side is willing to make concessions to end the war. Syria •Much of deposed Pres. Assad's cabinet stayed on when Assad and his family fled to Moscow, and rebel leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani (who has now rebranded himself "Pres. Ahmed al Shara" on Telegram) met Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi Jalali yesterday to begin transition planning. They jointly appointed Mohammed al-Bashir to form a new transition government. •Al-Golani and Jalili are trying to project an air of normalcy and ensure continuity of government operations, but a UN official said Syria's public sector had come to a "complete and abrupt halt." Many offices remain closed, but overall Syria seems mostly orderly: the only looting taking place is some vengeful trophy hunting from Assad's palaces. •Meanwhile, Israel continued to strike military targets across Syria, but maintains that its ground operations are limited to a demilitarized buffer zone east of the occupied Golan Heights - and intended to prevent advanced weaponry from falling into rebel hands. However, several skeptical Syrian sources say Israeli ground troops have pushed about six miles (10 km) past the buffer zone to the town of Qatana. China •Taiwan reported that China is deploying a massive naval fleet to participate in war games around Taiwan in response to Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te first official trip abroad - which China viewed as a provocation since Lai visited U.S. territory (Hawaii and Guam) and met remotely with U.S. officials. China hasn't yet confirmed plans for military drills. Guyana •Guyana submitted a "final" written brief in its 125-year-old territorial dispute with Venezuela to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), which claims jurisdiction over the case. •The case is likely to drag on for years to come: Venezuela has until Aug. 8 to submit its reply to Guyana's latest brief, and the ICJ will set a date after that for oral arguments to begin. Venezuela •The UN's High Commissioner for Human Rights said his agency has been "able to resume partly our activities" in Venezuela after a hiatus of nearly ten months. The watchdog seems to be investigating the July election Pres. Maduro stole: last week it ordered Maduro's government to refrain from destroying vote tally sheets and other election evidence.
Open source reportOff Leash update 26 Nov Tariffs •President-elect Trump said he would sign an executive order on his first day in office - Jan. 20, 2025 - to slap new tariffs of 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico, and 10% on China. Trump called the levies a "price" those nations must pay for their failure to stop the flow of illegal drugs and immigrants to the U.S. •All three affected countries immediately objected to the proposed tariffs. Canada objected politely, explaining that it's already working well with U.S. officials to block fentanyl trafficking "from China and other countries." •China, meanwhile, objected with hostility, calling the idea that it would deliberately send fentanyl precursors to the U.S. runs "completely counter to facts," and ominously warning that "no one will win a trade war or a tariff war." Hezbollah •It sounds like Israel and Hezbollah are close to finalizing a ceasefire deal that would give Israeli forces 60 days to withdraw from Lebanon and require Hezbollah to disarm along the border with Israel, where 5,000 Lebanese troops will deploy to help enforce the peace. •The terms of the latest proposal aren't public, but are said to closely track UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war. Except this time Hezbollah won't be allowed to rebuild its forces along the border. •Prime Minister Netanyahu and his cabinet will meet today to discuss the proposal, and Netanyahu is thought to be open to agreeing to the tabled terms - for once. That may mean Hezbollah and Lebanon gave in to his demand reserving the right to resume hostilities if Hezbollah breaks the truce first. •Meanwhile, Israeli forces have now reached the Litani River, which would form the northern frontier of the border buffer zone the Lebanese army will enforce after Israel withdraws south and Hezbollah withdraws north. Ukraine •Russia launched another new record number of drones at Ukraine overnight, once again targeting Ukrainian infrastructure. •Ukraine said it shot down or blocked most of the 188 drones that were launched over its border, but some reached their targets. •Russia is also making rapid gains on the ground: Reuters reported - citing analysts and war bloggers - that Russian ground forces are currently advancing at their fastest rate since 2022 using rapid, small-scale incursions to achieve footholds and then follow up with reinforcements to secure gains. •Meanwhile, Ukraine requested an emergency meeting of NATO ambassadors in Brussels today to discuss Russia's recent use of an intermediate-range ballistic missile against Dnipro last week. Ukraine hopes for "concrete and meaningful outcomes" from the meeting, but it's unlikely to win enthusiastic support from tired donors. Sudan •The Economist reported that the Sudanese army has made clear recent gains against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in central Sennar state and Khartoum in recent weeks. •The weakened RSF has signaled openness to a truce, but the army isn't willing to talk just yet. The RSF still controls most of southwest Sudan, and the army likely wants to improve its negotiating position by locking in more territorial gains before talks begin. Venezuela •Venezuela's opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado, called for a new day of demonstrations against Pres. Maduro's election theft on Dec 1. •Maduro's Minister of the Interior then accused Machado of orchestrating another conspiracy against Maduro and launched another bullying campaign against the opposition. In this case, police deployed to the Argentine Embassy to intimidate the many opposition figures from Machado's party who have taken refuge there.
Open source reportOff Leash update 25 October Gaza •U.S. diplomats are hopeful that there's still a window to secure a Gaza ceasefire / hostage release deal following the death of Hamas's antagonistic leader, Yahya Sinwar. •CIA Director Burns is traveling to Qatar this weekend to meet Israeli officials and push for a deal. It's not clear whether Hamas agreed to join the Qatar talks - or who would represent Hamas if it does join talks. •Qatari mediators said they and Egyptian interlocutors had both had "some meetings...in the last couple of days" with representatives of Hamas's political office in Doha, but said there was "no clarity" over the group's negotiating plans. •PM Netanyahu said he hopes the talks will result in a ceasefire and hostage release deal, but media reports suggest he's the one who blocked previous truce proposals by moving the goalposts. There are no indications he's more willing to negotiate now that his position is stronger. Haiti •Gang violence has worsened lately in Haiti - despite the presence of a Kenya-led and UN-backed police force that arrived in June. •Earlier this week, two gangs - 400 Mawozo and Chen Mechan - seemingly deliberately targeted U.S. Embassy vehicles in Port-au-Prince, leading the Embassy to evacuate up to 20 of its "non-emergency" diplomats from the post. •Yesterday, armed gangsters shot at a UN humanitarian helicopter flying over the capital, landing at least eight shots and leading the UN to cancel its aid flights today. •The head of the UN's Integrated Office in Haiti told the UN Security Council: "The situation in Haiti has regrettably worsened." Iran •Mounting murmurs suggest Israel will launch its carefully-planned re-retaliation against Iran imminently. •Iran seems to be bracing for it and hoping it will be muted. Iranian officials have hinted that if Israel demonstrates restraint with a symbolic strike instead of a devastating one, Iran will let it be the last word and won't re-re-retaliate. •On the other hand, Iranian officials told the NYT that Ayatollah Khamenei has ordered a response if Israel assassinates senior officials or strikes oil or nuclear facilities. Russia •This week's BRICS summit in Kazan was widely seen as a victory for Pres. Putin: despite Western sanctions and opprobrium, he attracted 36 world leaders - as well as UN SecDef Guterres - to a forum where he fueled grievances with the West and its "perverse methods" and cast himself as an unfairly maligned counterweight. •Meanwhile, the WSJ reported that Russia has engaged in some perverse methods of its own by providing Yemen's Houthi rebels with satellite data to target their attacks on Red Sea shipping. Analysts said Russia's motive is to provoke instability and distract U.S. resources away from Ukraine. Sahel •Armed militants attacked a northern Nigerien border post near the frontier with Mali. Both Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen (JNIM) - a jihadist group - and Nigerien Tuareg rebels claimed the attack. The Institute for the Study of War said the dual claim "possibly indicate[s] that the two groups are coordinating their operations." JNIM hasn't previously attacked so far north, but it has previously coordinated with Malian Tuaregs - so coordinating with their Nigerien counterparts is well within the realm of possibility. Strategic Minerals •The U.S. Interior Dept. approved Australian mining company ioneer's mining project in Nevada, which will supply lithium for up to 370,000 electric vehicle batteries per year at full capacity. Environmentalists opposed and stalled the proposal, but a six-year review process led to a "science-based decision" to approve it. Construction will be funded by a $700 million loan from the U.S. Dept. of Energy and a $450 million investment from Sibanye Stillwater.
Open source reportOff Leash update 23 October Hezbollah •Israel confirmed that one of its early October airstrikes on Beirut - analysts believe it was the barrage on Oct. 3 - killed Hashem Safieddine, the cousin and presumed successor to Hassan Nasrallah. •Netanyahu alluded to Safieddine's demise on Oct. 8 when he said Israel had killed "Nasrallah’s replacement, and his replacement’s replacement." •Analysts presume Safieddine was the "replacement," which would mean Israel also believes - though it hasn't confirmed yet - that it has killed Safieddine's replacement. •[I'm not sure who that would be. It's not Naim Qassem, Hezbollah's longtime deputy leader who was initially the rumored successor to Nasrallah: Qassem reportedly fled Lebanon for Iran Oct. 5 after resigning from his position and delivering a shaky recorded speech after Nasrallah's death in which he seemed to feel and fear the target on his back.] •Though leaderless, Hezbollah continued to fire rockets at Tel Aviv for the second consecutive day. Ukraine •South Korea increased its estimate of the number of North Korean troops already fighting for Russia in Ukraine. It now thinks 3,000 North Koreans have arrived on the front lines - of the total 11,000 Pyongyang committed to Russia. •According to a video posted by a Chinese mercenary who's also fighting for Russia in Ukraine, the North Koreans aren't doing very well: the mercenary - who goes by Dian Yuzhan (“prison warden” in Chinese) online - said eight North Korean officers were killed on their very first day of fighting: "goddamn it, they were gone just after entering [the war]." •The Economist noted that while the "erratic and heavily-armed" North Koreans' presence in Ukraine could throw some curveballs for Ukrainian defenders, it's also a sign that Russia has lowered its standards for allies out of desperation: (quoting John Foreman, a former British defense attaché to Russia from 2019-2022) " 'Russia used to look down on North Korea as a pygmy state,' he says. It was the great power 'with Tchaikovsky and Chekhov and ballet…not some bloke with ill-fitting suits in love with artillery and killing people.' " China •Last week, China stoked fears in Taiwan with large-scale military drills in the area, including a simulated blockade. Now it is keeping its threat looming over the island with new live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait. •Separately, India and China said they "reached a solution" over their shared border in the Himalayas, where their soldiers have fought deadly battles with sticks and knives in recent years. •Now with their border tensions deescalated and patrols resumed on both sides of the boundary, Pres. Xi and PM Modi will meet this week on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia. It'll be their first formal bilateral meeting since 2019. •Their broader border dispute remains unresolved, though. This "solution" merely lets both sides maintain their respective (and occasionally mutually exclusive) territorial claims so they can amicably collaborate on initiatives that benefit them both - like trade.
Open source reportOff Leash update 22 October Venezuela •Venezuelan police arrested former oil minister Pedro Tellechea and accused him of sharing key internal documents from state oil company PDVSA with "a company controlled by the US Intelligence Services." •Tellechea had just resigned from his post as Minister of Industry and National Production on Friday, citing health reasons. •He's the fourth Venezuelan oil minister since 2017 - out of five who have served in that time - to be arrested on similar allegations. Russia •Former U.S. Marine Paul Whelan spoke for the first time about his experience in the Russian prison system before his release in a swap this summer. •In an interview with CBS (https://t.co/ao8FzNaObF), Whelan called prison conditions "monotonous and filthy," and said he passed information from fellow prisoners who fought on the front lines in Ukraine along to Western officials using burner phones. •In other news about ex-Russian prisoners, murdered dissident Alexey Navalny's memoirs (titled "Patriot") come out today. The Economist called the book "a passionate and moving testimony to Russia’s extreme violence." Argentina •Argentina's Pres. Milei - who campaigned with a chainsaw symbolizing his pledge to slash the size of the bureaucracy - took another bold step towards that promise by dissolving the country's bloated revenue service, Administración Federal de Ingresos Públicos (AFIP). •Milei announced the creation of a new entity - Agencia de Recaudación y Control Aduanero (ARCA) - to replace AFIP. ARCA's directors will get paid 90% less than AFIP's, while salaries at lower levels of ARCA will see smaller reductions of 30%. Hezbollah and Hamas •SecState Blinken landed in Israel today to try to convince PM Netanyahu's government to agree to a ceasefire and hostage deal now that Israel's Enemy No. 1 - Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar - is dead. That won't be easy: Netanyahu has indicated that he isn't ready to end the war yet. •Israel's army declassified intelligence about one of the targets of its airstrikes aimed at cutting off Hezbollah's funding: a vault with tens of millions of dollars in gold and cash. •It's unclear whether the Israeli airstrikes destroyed that money, but the IDF also said it had not yet targeted a separate vault hidden under a hospital in Beirut that contains much more: "at least half a billion dollars in dollar bills and gold." A spokesman added: "This money could and still can be used to rebuild the state of Lebanon." Iran •Over the weekend, two documents purporting to show Five Eyes-only U.S. intelligence analysis of Israel's possible plans to retaliate on Iran for its ballistic missile barrage were posted on Telegram and then shared widely - especially within Iran. •The fact that the White House said Pres. Biden was "deeply concerned" about the unauthorized release of the files - plus the fact that they were first publicized by a pro-Iran account, Middle East Spectator - suggests the U.S. didn't deliberately leak them and they may have been stolen by hackers instead. •Most foreign airlines have paused flights to Iran in anticipation of Israel's retaliation. DRC •Rwanda-backed M23 rebels captured the North Kivu town of Kalembe, ending a ceasefire signed in August after years of Angolan mediation. Few believed the truce would last as long as it took DRC and the M23 to agree to it. Other News •Moldova confirmed that its referendum on (eventually) joining the EU was approved - though the vote was too close to call yesterday, thanks in part to Russia's meddling to buy 300,000 votes against the measure. Pres. Sandu called the Russian intervention "fraud of an unprecedented scale."
Open source reportOff Leash update 21 October Coming Up This Week •World Bank and IMF annual meetings take place in Washington, DC today through Saturday. Climate change programs are high on the agenda - although rich countries don't want to pay for them and indebted poor countries can't afford to. •Leaders of Commonwealth countries (the UK and most of its ex-colonies - or, roughly, countries that play cricket) meet in Samoa starting today. It's the first biennial Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting that King Charles III will lead. •Russia will host BRICS leaders for the bloc's 16th annual summit in Kazan tomorrow through Thursday. This will be the first opportunity for its new members (Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE) to join the namesake original members (Brazil Russia, India, China, and South Africa) for the meetings. [Saudi has been invited to join the bloc but isn't an official member yet and won't join this year's summit.] The group will discuss the possible future accession of up to 15 new members, including Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. •Uruguay and Japan will both vote on Sunday. A leftist opposition candidate, Yamandú Orsi, leads Uruguay's presidential polls, but not by enough to avoid a runoff. In Japan's snap poll, the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party hopes to recover public trust it lost in recent financial scandals, but it risks losing ground to a divided opposition. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,552/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,100/ton •Cobalt: $23,995/ton •Copper: $9,472/ton •Gold: $2,733/toz - an all-time record high •Lead: $2,034/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.28/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $70.34/barrel •Zinc: $3,082/ton Cuba •Cuba suffered four nationwide electrical grid failures over the weekend. •The energy minister blamed power plant problems, and it's no surprise that the island's outdated plants are failing: Fidel Castro once called them "prehistoric." The eight plants that produce Cuba's electricity are almost 50 years old - nearly twice their useful life - and poorly maintained. •The government seems to expect some blowback over the grid failures: Pres. Diaz-Canel appeared on national television (between blackouts) in fatigues to urge Cubans to express their frustrations peacefully. Middle East •Israel carried out airstrikes against Hezbollah's financial partner, Al-Qard al-Hasan, in Lebanon, and against Hamas in northern Gaza. •Militants in Hezbollah targeted PM Netanyahu's coastal residence, Caesarea, in a drone strike over the weekend. One drone penetrated Israeli air defenses but caused no casualties. Ukraine and Russia •Yulia Navalnaya - the widow of murdered dissident Alexey Navalny - told BBC that she intends to continue her late husband's fight against Pres. Putin: "I will do everything to make his regime fall as soon as possible." •Navalnaya also said she intends to run for president of Russia as soon as Putin is out of the picture (she rationally fears returning to Russia while Putin is still in power because his government - which killed her husband - has accused her of extremism too). •Separately, Ukraine sent hundreds of drones into several regions of Russia overnight. Russia intercepted most of them, but one penetrated Russian air defenses and struck a military explosives manufacturer deep inside Russian territory. •Russia also targeted Kyiv with airstrikes over the weekend. North Korea •South Korea's spy agency studied satellite photos to conclude that at least 1,500 North Korean Special Forces troops are fighting for Russia in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine previously warned that North Korea plans to send up to 10,000 troops to the war. Other News •Moldova voted yesterday on a referendum deeming EU membership a "strategic objective." The outcome is too close to call but slightly tilted in favor of closer ties with (and, eventually, membership in) the EU - despite Russia spending around €100 million supporting the other side.
Open source reportOff Leash update. 15 October Iran •According to a Washington Post report, Israeli PM Netanyahu gave Pres. Biden his word that Israel would not strike Iranian nuclear facilities or oil assets in retaliation for Iran's ballistic missile barrage earlier this month. Per WaPo, Netanyahu said Israel's retaliation would instead focus on Iranian military targets. •Oil markets believe Netanyahu - oil prices dropped as fears of a supply disruption eased - but that doesn't mean Israel has truly ruled out targeting nuclear or oil assets. U.S. officials don't always take Netanyahu at his word - Bob Woodward's new book recounts Biden privately calling Netanyahu a "fucking liar" in the past - and Netanyahu's own office even walked back his commitment to avoid striking nuclear or oil targets. A new statement from Netanyahu's office said the PM will consider U.S. input but make final decisions in its national interest. Gaza •Israeli strikes targeted a Hamas command center stationed near the Al Aqsa Martyrs Hospital in Gaza. The resulting fire killed or injured dozens of Gazans who'd taken shelter at the hospital. •Hamas often hides its command centers amidst civilians in the hope that their presence will dissuade Israeli strikes. But according to a new NYT report, Israel has also been using human shields. The NYT says Israeli troops have "regularly forced captured Gazans to carry out life-threatening tasks" like scoping out Hamas tunnels or abandoned buildings for booby-traps. North Korea •North Korea accused South Korea of flying leaflet-dropping drones over Pyongyang for a third time this month, and lashed out in a symbolic response by dramatically demolishing unused roads that once connected the two neighbors. •Kim Jong Un and his sister, Kim Yo Jong, had threatened "immediate military action" in retaliation to the alleged drone incursions, but they're unlikely to instigate anything more provocative than blowing up some cracked asphalt: Pyongyang knows better than to goad a better-armed adversary into open conflict. China •Taiwan counted a record 153 Chinese warplanes participating in the one-day "Joint Sword-2024B" military drills that Beijing launched in reaction to a provocative speech by Taiwan's Pres. Lai Ching-te. •Taiwanese officials complained that "Any drills without prior warning will cause great disturbance to peace and stability in the entire region." Russia •A new report by the Ukraine-based Kyiv School of Economics Institute estimated that almost 70% of Russia's oil is being transported by its fleet of unregistered "shadow tankers." •According to the Kyiv institute, Russia uses its shadow fleet to evade sanctions and sell oil above the $60 per barrel price cap set for it, earning it $15-60 per barrel more. Multiplied by its estimated shadow fleet volumes of up to 120 million barrels per month, that's a lucrative workaround. •The Kyiv institute also warned that the shadow tankers are usually uninsured or underinsured, and have an average age of 18 years. Several have already run aground or collided with other ships. If one were to cause a major oil spill, it's unlikely Russia - which denies any official links to the shadow fleet - would pay for cleanup. Venezuela •Venezuela's sanctioned Attorney General, Tarek Saab, bizarrely accused Brazil's Pres. Lula and Chile's Pres. Boric of being CIA agents - because why else would they join the U.S. (and dozens of other countries) in questioning the legitimacy of Pres. Maduro's bogus claim to have won re-election? •Separately, opposition leader Maria Corina Machado made a moving audio appeal to Venezuelan soldiers to stop supporting a "regime that's on its way out" and join the opposition in forming a "new republic." •It's widely known that many Venezuelan soldiers - spanning all ranks and across all military branches - already quietly support the opposition and would defect as soon as they feel safe doing so. Appeals like Machado's may help turn the tide.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 9 October Middle East •Hezbollah's deputy leader, Naim Qassem, expressed support for a ceasefire during a televised address yesterday. He didn't mention any conditions - not even the group's longstanding demand for an end to the Gaza war as a precondition for a detente (though Qassem did vaguely vow to continue to stand with Hamas and Palestinians against Israel). •U.S. officials assessed that Qassem's eagerness for a truce shows that Hezbollah is "getting battered" and considering acknowledging defeat. •Separately, Israel targeted a Hezbollah weapons smuggler with an airstrike on a residential building in Damascus's embassy district, killing seven (it's not clear if the target was among those killed). •Israel is still contemplating its options for responding to Iran's (largely-ineffective) ballistic missile strikes last week. PM Netanyahu will speak with Pres. Biden by phone today to discuss Israel's plans. •Iran is girding for a harsh response. Its diplomats have been warning Gulf countries against letting their airspace or military bases be used in an attack on Iran. Mexico •Mexico's new president, AMLO protege Claudia Sheinbaum, unveiled her plan to combat worsening cartel violence yesterday, and analysts were unimpressed. Critics of the plan say it's only a continuation of AMLO's "hugs not bullets" approach that failed to reverse the rise in violence. Russia •It's not just U.S. elections that Russia is seeking to disrupt: the head of the UK's domestic security service (MI5), Ken McCallum, said Russian spies are also trying to "generate mayhem on British and European streets" with acts of "arson, sabotage, and more." •McCallum said over 750 Russian diplomats - "the great majority of them spies" - have been booted from Europe since Russia invaded Ukraine. With its professional troublemakers benched, Moscow then resorted to hiring private operatives and common criminals for its EU missions, McCallum added. He blamed their work for driving a 48% rise in MI5 investigations into state-sponsored operations against the UK in 2023. •McCallum noted that Iran and China are also actively supporting plots in the UK, but not as vigorously as Russia is - and China's operations are primarily focused on targeting dissidents abroad. China •China announced new penalties on European brandy in response to tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) that the EU approved last week. •Beijing argues that EU brandy producers are dumping their tipples in the Chinese market at below-market prices - akin to how China is dumping cheap EVs in the European market at prices lower prices than domestic EV makers can tolerate. •China's new measures are structured in a way that gives the EU a chance to back down on its EV tariffs first: the Ministry of Commerce will temporarily collect deposits of up to 39% on EU brandy imports, but if it makes the penalties permanent then those deposits will be forfeited, effectively becoming tariff payments. •The European Commission plans to challenge China's retaliatory measures at the World Trade Organization. North Korea •Pyongyang announced plans to "permanently" sever road and rail links with South Korea and fortify its border regions. •Road and rail travel between the two Koreas has been cut off for years, so the North's gesture is largely a symbolic indicator that strengthening U.S.-South Korea military collaboration is raising Kim Jong Un's blood pressure. •Separately, Ukrainian media reported that six North Korean soldiers fighting for Russia were killed in a Ukrainian missile strike near Donetsk last week. •South Korea's Defense Minister told parliament that it's "highly likely" that North Korean soldiers are indeed fighting on Russia's side in Ukraine under the mutual defense pact Russia and North Korea signed - though this is still unconfirmed.
Open source reportOff Leash update 5 Sep Gaza •A senior U.S. official blamed two obstacles holding up a final ceasefire proposal: a list of Palestinian prisoners Israel will release (Hamas has been greedy in demanding more liberations than Israel wants to allow), and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Philadelphi Corridor (which PM Netanyahu has refused to accept). Ukraine •Some critics are complaining about Pres. Zelensky's cabinet reshuffle. They accuse Zelensky of trying to consolidate power by stacking key posts with close allies who will rubber-stamp his decisions. Ukraine's Parliament is expected to approve his shakeup anyway. Russia •Russia sentenced Alexander Shiplyuk - the director of a physics institute specializing in the hypersonic and supersonic technologies propelling Russian missiles in Ukraine - to 15 years in prison for treason for sharing classified information. •Shipluk is only the latest in a series of convictions of top Russian scientists for (per their colleagues and supporters) merely exchanging scientific knowledge with foreign colleagues - as scientists doing industry-leading work must do. •Separately, the U.S. indicted two employees of Russia's state-owned RT news agency for spreading disinformation to try to influence the U.S. election, and is preparing more sanctions over election disinformation (in addition to Russia, U.S. officials also accuse Iran of sowing election disinformation). Venezuela •Venezuela detained a U.S. Navy sailor who was "on some sort of personal travel" to the country without official approval from the Navy (which I imagine wouldn't have been forthcoming). The circumstances of his detention are unclear; often when U.S. servicemen are detained abroad, they're dual or former citizens of the country detaining them and had returned to visit family. DRC •DRC will get its first 100,000 doses of mpox vaccines today, followed by a second shipment on Saturday. The logistics of administering vaccines across the country will be much more complicated than getting doses to Kinshasa: the earliest vaccinations could start is Oct. 8.
Open source reportOff Leash update 3 Sept Venezuela •A Venezuelan court issued an arrest warrant for Edmundo Gonzalez - the opposition candidate who defeated Pres. Maduro in the July 28 presidential election - on charges of "usurpation," conspiracy, and sabotage. •The usurpation charge is particularly curious, given that Gonzalez has a very legitimate claim to the presidency Maduro accuses him of trying to usurp: the opposition's online tallies showed that Gonzalez received over twice as many votes as Pres. Maduro (67% vs. 30%), which is consistent with exit polls and pre-election independent surveys. [Maduro and his allies have refused to provide evidence for their dubious claims that Maduro won 52% of the vote.] •The arrest warrant is a significant escalation in Maduro's campaign to silence the opposition, but not an unexpected one: Maduro and his close allies have increasingly called for the arrest of Gonzalez and opposition leader Maria Corina Machado (who won the opposition's primary but was banned from running against Maduro herself). •Gonzalez and Machado are both in hiding but continue their campaign from there. Machado reacted to the warrant on Gonzalex on X: "Threatening the President-elect will only achieve more cohesion and increase the support of Venezuelans and the world for Edmundo Gonzalez." •Separately, the U.S. seized Maduro's Dassault Falcon 900EX from the Dominican Republic and brought it to Florida. •The U.S. Department of Justice justified seizing the plane - which CNN called "Venezuela's Air Force One" - on grounds that it was bought illegally through a shell company and "smuggled" to Venezuela "for use by Nicolás Maduro and his cronies" in violation of international sanctions. Gaza •PM Netanyahu defiantly withstood pressure from over 100,000 protesters who demonstrated across Israel for a ceasefire deal to secure the release of ~70 surviving Israeli hostages still in Hamas's hands. •Netanyahu rejected the idea of making "concessions" to secure a deal, and told a press conference the war will only end "when Hamas no longer rules Gaza." •Israel's largest trade union - representing over 800,000 people - had called its first strike since Oct. 7 in support of a deal, but it quickly complied with a court order to end the strike the day it started. •While a ceasefire remains as elusive as ever, there was a tiny bit of good news from Gaza: the WHO's polio vaccination campaign is remarkably running ahead of schedule - despite the backdrop of an ongoing war. Around a quarter of Gazan children under 10 have already been vaccinated since innoculations started on Sunday. Russia •Pres. Putin landed in Mongolia today, marking the first time he's set foot in a member state of the International Criminal Court (ICC) since the ICC issued a warrant for his arrest. ICC member states are obligated to carry out the court's arrest warrants when a subject enters their territory. •Mongolia declined to execute the ICC's warrant for Putin's arrest, and offered him a red carpet welcome instead. •Putin was clearly confident that Mongolia's reliance on Russian fuel would trump its (unenforceable) ICC obligations. Ahead of his arrival in Mongolia, a Kremlin spokesman brushed off concerns that he could be arrested there: "There are no worries, we have a great dialogue with our friends from Mongolia." DRC •Inmates at Kinshasa's Makala prison attempted a jailbreak early yesterday under the cover of a large fire, but guards quickly regained control by shooting at least 24 prisoners dead. Another 80 or more died in the stampede or from smoke inhalation. Libya •The UN brought Libya's rival sides together for talks on resolving their dispute over the central bank's leadership. Mediators claimed the two sides achieved "significant" understanding and agreed to submit proposals for a resolution for review today. That seems too quick to come up with a solution to a dispute that's been simmering for over a decade.
Open source reportOff Leash update 21 August Venezuela •Despite global weekend protests against Pres. Maduro's theft of last month's election, Maduro hasn't budged. The Carnegie Endowment wrote that Maduro "has dug in and is waiting for global attention to move elsewhere." •If he's allowed to stay, an analysis by Meganalisis suggests that over 40% of Venezuela's remaining population of seven million may flee the country by the end of this year. •That would put significant pressure on Venezuela's neighbors - especially Colombia and Brazil, who have suggested holding new elections instead of pushing Maduro to accept the results of the election he lost. Iran •A senior Iranian official said Iran may wait "a long time" to respond to Israel's assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil last month. Analysts read between the lines to interpret that statement to mean Iran's response has been put on hold. Gaza •SecState Blinken left Egypt without a ceasefire deal, and Pres. Biden told the Democratic National Convention that Hamas is "now backing away" from a deal. •An headline in Israel's Haaretz claims Israel didn't actually accept the latest proposal either - "The U.S. Somehow Heard Netanyahu Say 'Yes' to a Gaza Deal. He Didn't" - suggesting the U.S.'s "best chance" bridging proposal never really had much of a chance. •Nonetheless, some mediators remain hopeful that talks will resume this week. •Meanwhile, the Israeli army recovered the bodies of six hostages in a long (>1 mile / >1.6 km) tunnel in Khan Younis. All but one had already been confirmed dead. Ukraine •Pres. Zelensky pleaded with the West to drop its "red lines" prohibiting certain Western weapons from being used inside Russia. •The Western prohibitions were mainly intended to ensure Ukraine doesn't use donated weapons offensively, since doing so could risk Russian retaliation against the west. However, as The Economist pointed out last week in an op-ed justifying Ukraine's Kursk invasion, Ukraine is "morally and legally" allowed to defend itself - "and that right does not stop at the border." •Few real prohibitions remain, anyway: most were dropped this spring after Zelensky's persistent lobbying. •Separately, Ukraine lobbed one of its largest drone volleys yet at Moscow overnight. Russia shot down at least 45 drones - including at least 11 over the Moscow region. There are no clear reports of injuries or significant damage from the drones yet. Russia •Pres. Putin visited the majority Muslim region of Chechnya for the first time in 13 years. During his unannounced visit, he inspected Chechan troops and volunteers preparing to deploy to Ukraine, telling the trainees: "As long as we have men like you, we are absolutely, absolutely invincible.: •Chechan warlord Ramzan Kadyrov claims that he's trained over 47,000 fighters to fight for Putin since the war began. North Korea •South Korea said a North Korean soldier defected early Tuesday, crossing the border on foot - an extremely risky move, given the heavy fortifications and tense trigger fingers along the border. •His was the second defection in two weeks. Analysts say the pattern could be a sign of rising economic hardship in the North - or an indication that South Korea's cross-border broadcasts are improving Northerners' access to information (and K-pop) and leading them to seek a better life in the South. Azerbaijan •Following a visit by Russia's Pres. Putin, Azerbaijan formally applied to join the BRIC bloc of fast-growing economies. •The BRICs began in 2009 with the four countries that formed its acronym - Brazil, Russia, India, China - but has since expanded to include five more countries that want to be in a bloc but don't make the cut for NATO: Egypt, South Africa, Ethiopia, UAE, and Iran.
Open source reportOff Leash update 20 August Gaza •SecState Blinken said Israel has accepted the U.S.'s "bridging proposal" for a ceasefire deal that Blinken called "probably the best, maybe the last" chance to free Israeli hostages. •However, various media reports (e.g. from Axios) suggest PM Netanyahu is only approving the updated terms - which include some of his new demands - because he knows Hamas will reject them. •Indeed, Hamas hasn't formally responded, but it complained that the current terms were biased towards Israel and include "new conditions" it can't agree to, like Israel keeping control of the Philadelphi corridor and implementing a mechanism to prevent weapons smuggling from the south of Gaza to the north. •Egyptian and Qatari mediators are less optimistic than Blinken about a deal, but Iran seems to be holding off on its threatened response to (alleged) Israeli assassinations to allow time for talks to unfold. •Meanwhile, Hamas operatives collaborated with Islamic Jihad - a fellow Palestinian militant group in Gaza - in a botched attack on Tel Aviv on Sunday night. •The militant groups said it was a suicide bombing - which would make it the first suicide bombing in Israel in eight years - however, Israeli police didn't confirm that the assailant died when his explosives detonated early. Their only reported casualty was a bystander who sustained moderate injuries. Ukraine •Ukraine destroyed the third Seim River bridge - of three that Russia could use to reinforce its defense against Ukraine's incursion into Kursk. Ukrainian Air Force commander Gen. Mykola Oleshchuk celebrated the third strike on Telegram: "Minus one more bridge!" •Those three bridges were also the main retreat routes for Russian defenders, so their destruction has left an unknown number of Russian soldiers cut off and at risk of finding themselves in "kettles," as Russia's military calls encirclement. •Pres. Putin certainly won't allow that kind of embarrassment without a rebuttal. As the NYT assessed: "Russians who know President Vladimir Putin expect him to lash out in response, believing that his military has the upper hand." •Putin has already ordered a regiment of his Aerospace Forces to Kursk. China •Chinese and Philippine coast guard vessels collided early yesterday morning near Sabina Shoal in part of the disputed Spratly Islands that China, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Taiwan all claim. As usual, both sides blamed the other for the collision. •The two sides had just signed what the Philippines called a "preliminary understanding" to prevent future confrontations like this in the South China Sea. •After accusing China of ramming its boats yesterday, a Philippine official said, "we are of course disappointed again." Afghanistan •A deputy spokesman for the Taliban government reiterated the Taliban's claim that it's in full control of security within Afghanistan and there are no terrorist groups operating in the country. •Afghanistan's neighbors don't believe that. Pakistan has suffered numerous cross-border attacks by militants taking refuge in Afghanistan, and Iran plans to complete an ambitious program to secure its 200 mile (330 km) border with Afghanistan later this year.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 30 July Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,289/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $23,100/ton •Cobalt: $26,625/ton •Copper: $9,111/ton •Gold: $2,374/toz •Lead: $2,068/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $1.94/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $75.86/barrel •Zinc: $2,669/ton Venezuela •Pres. Maduro declared victory in yesterday's election. So did his opposition opponent, Edmundo González. •This time, Maduro claimed just 51.2% of the vote - just enough to avoid a runoff, but (Maduro probably hopes) not egregiously incredible enough to spark a revolution. •Many would-be observers boycotted the poll because Maduro tainted it from the start by bullying the opposition ( @MariaCorinaYA ) out of a fair race. And the few observers who participated cited widespread irregularities. •Electoral authorities also prevented the public from fact-checking its count by refusing to release paper tallies printed by voting machines at key polling places. Israel •On Saturday, a Hezbollah rocket killed at least 12 kids and teens on a soccer (football) field in the Golan Heights, a sliver of Syria that Israel occupied in 1967 and annexed in 1981. •Israel's security cabinet authorized PM Netanyahu to decide on the "manner and timing" of a response - likely involving counterstrikes in Lebanon. •One such counterstrike already took place: an Israeli drone strike killed two people and wounded three - including a child - in the southern Lebanese town of Shaqra. China •SecState Blinken criticized China's "escalating" and "unlawful actions" in the South China Sea during a trip to Laos - where he will meet Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. •Blinken will also visit Vietnam, Japan, and the Philippines in an effort to befriend Southeast Asian countries that are feeling threatened by an increasingly bellicose China. North Korea •Saturday was North Korea's Victory Day - commemorating the 70th anniversary of the truce that paused (but didn't end) the Korean War. •Kim Jong Un invited a special guest for the occasion: Russian Defense Minister Shoigu. His presence at the Victory Day festivities serves as a reminder of the increasingly close ties between Russia and North Korea, which were further solidified by Pres. Putin's second visit to the Hermit Kingdom last month. Sahel •Tuareg separatists engaged Malian soldiers backed by Russian Wagner troops near Mali's border with Algeria and - according to the Tuaregs - "decisively obliterated these enemy columns" over three days of fighting. •The Tuareg have been fighting for independence since 2012, but they started this latest round of fighting in response to recent military offensives that recaptured formerly rebel-held territory. •The rebels say they seized "a large amount of equipment and weapons" and took "dozens" of Wagner fighters captive. •The Malian army says two soldiers died and also acknowledged losing a helicopter in another nearby rebel stronghold, but said nothing about Wagner involvement in the fighting...officially, Wagner personnel are only in Mali to train local troops and shouldn't be fighting alongside their "trainees." Libya •Libya convicted 12 current and former officials for their negligence in managing dams near Derna that collapsed last year, killing at least 4,300 - and possibly over 12,000. Several were ordered to repay funds obtained through "illicit means," suggesting that the court blamed their misdeeds (at least in part) on corruption. Other News •French authorities are blaming the far-left for last week's organized attacks on French train lines. Today they arrested a far-left activist in Normandy in connection with the incidents. •Meanwhile, a new coordinated infrastructure attack affected fiberoptic telecom networks throughout France (though Paris was not affected).
Open source reportOff Leash Update 25 July Israel •Israeli PM Netanyahu went ahead with a planned visit to the U.S., despite (or perhaps because of) news that Pres. Biden has bowed out of the November election. •Some analysts guessed Bibi would capitalize on Biden's weakened authority to make his pleas for continued U.S. support directly to Congress - which is bitterly divided on the issue. •Netanyahu probably also sought to cozy up to Biden's presumptive replacement on the Democratic ticket, VP Harris, but Harris snubbed his Congressional address to hit the campaign trail and speak at a sorority event instead. However, she'll still meet with him (and Pres. Biden) privately at the White House later this week. •Netanyahu delayed the departure of an Israeli delegation for ceasefire talks in Qatar until after his trip to Washington. North Korea •North Korea launched another fleet of trash balloons over the border, and some landed in the compound housing Pres. Yoon Suk Yeol's offices for the first time. •South Korean authorities didn't find anything hazardous or contaminating in the balloons' "payload" - just obnoxious trash sent in response to the propaganda leaflets ("political trash," in Pyongyang's view) that defectors from the North have been floating over the border. Russia •French police arrested a Russian chef suspected of links to the Russian security services on unspecified charges related to a "large-scale" plan to destabilize the Olympic Games that start this week. •It's not clear specifically what this Russian chef was cooking up, but French authorities clarified that the charges weren't related to terrorism. Some media outlets suggested he may have been part of anticipated Russian attempts to create false scares with AI-generated bomb warnings at the Olympics. Afghanistan •Chinese engineers and Taliban officials commemorated a groundbreaking on the long-delayed Aynak Copper Project southwest of Kabul. The Taliban Deputy PM for Economic Affairs said he hoped the project would make up for 16+ years of delays due to war and incompetence with "speedy work" - something the Taliban is not known for. •Short on good news stories, the Taliban also re-inaugurated the 25-km road leading to Aynak that was already officially opened about a year ago. Sudan •The U.S. and Saudi Arabia invited Sudan's warring parties to peace talks in Switzerland next month, and RSF leader Hemedti issued a statement accepting the invitation. His foe, Gen. Al-Burhan, hasn't responded to the invitation yet. Strategic Minerals •Tesla reported a 45% decline in net income for the second quarter - an even worse outcome than pessimistic analysts had predicted. Tesla has been losing its dominance of the electric vehicle (EV) market to cheaper rivals; additionally, demand for EVs has dropped as subsidy programs ended. •Separately, the UK's royals made a record profit last year, thanks largely to the Crown Estate's investment in offshore wind farms. The UK gets 17% of its electricity from offshore wind.
Open source reportOff Leash update 12 July Gaza •The Pentagon said it would give up on the floating pier it built off the coast of Gaza to land aid deliveries. •The pier - which cost $230 million to build - received few aid deliveries in its short lifespan - it only operated for about 20 days of the two months since it was first installed - and suffered damage from rough seas on multiple occasions. (Editor's note: this debacle is especially foul for me as before USG blundered in I was asked by a significant NGO to build a logistics and security plan for supply Gaza. The maritime portion for our plan was only $10m and that included buying two landing craft with cranes and a 120meter spud barge that we would have pinned to the beach with large pilings. The LCs would cycle from 13 miles out (outside Gaza/Israeli waters) to offload by crane into barge pinned to beach. Not elegant but sufficient. The consistent fail of "Team America" is embarrassing and must be corrected.) •Meanwhile, Israeli Defense Minister Gallant estimated that Israel has killed 60% of Hamas terrorists in its nine-month war in Gaza. •Gallant also called for an official inquiry into Israel's failures leading up - and responding - to the Oct. 7 attacks, and specifically suggested the inquiry should investigate PM Netanyahu and Gallant himself. Netanyahu has resisted the idea of conducting such an inquiry before the war is over. Russia •U.S. intelligence uncovered a secret Russian plot to assassinate the (civilian) CEO of German weapons manufacturer Rheinmetall because of his company's role producing artillery shells and tanks for Ukraine. •News of the plot outraged German and EU leaders, but Russia dismissed the accusations, saying they lacked "serious documentation" (as *secret* plots often do). •Separately, a Russian-born Australian army private and her husband - also a Russian-born Australian - became the first people arrested under Australia's modernized 2018 espionage laws. Australian prosecutors allege the couple "worked together to access Australian Defence Force material that related to Australia’s national security interests." Sudan •Reports earlier this week suggested Sudan's two warring strongmen - Gen. al Burhan and Hemedti - were close to relaunching peace talks in Jeddah, but Gen. al Burhan seemed to squash that idea with an impossible pre-condition: he wants Hemedti's RSF to fully withdraw from Sudan's cities before talks take place. Sahel •Niger's junta acknowledged that several prisoners escaped from a jail in the restive Tillaberi region known to hold Al Qaeda- and Islamic State-linked jihadists. •It was the first successful jailbreak from this particular facility - although guards repelled two prior attempts in 2016 and 2019. Authorities don't know exactly how many prisoners escaped, but they placed the surrounding area under a strict curfew in an attempt to track down the escapees. Other News •Kenya's Pres. Ruto fired 14 of his 15 cabinet ministers in a belated response to nationwide protests against his government and new taxes it sought to impose (but walked back after they proved unpopular). That may be too little, too late for the protesters, who had demanded Ruto's resignation too.
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 July Russia •A Russian court issued an arrest warrant for murdered dissident Alexey Navalny's widow, Yulia Navalnaya, for "participating in an extremist community." •Navalnaya left Russia in 2021, and has continued to champion her late husband's opposition ("extremist") causes from abroad. She's also editing a manuscript about his political career that he wrote in prison, which will be published and released in the U.S. in October. She was already unlikely to return to Russia; with this warrant outstanding, she definitely won't. •Separately, the U.S. FBI shut down a Russian "bot farm" that used artificial intelligence to post pro-Putin disinformation in the U.S. and elsewhere. The shuttered entity created two websites and almost 1,000 X (fka Twitter) accounts with all-American pseudonyms like "Sue Williamson" purporting to be normal apple pie-eating folks who think Putin is just swell. Gaza •An Israeli strike on a school building in southern Gaza reportedly killed at least 25 people. Israel said it was targeting a militant who had participated in the Oct. 7 attacks - and who was apparently sheltering behind displaced Gazans in the school building. •The UN estimates that over 80% of Gaza's schools have been severely damaged or destroyed in the war - often because militants like this one seek refuge in them. •Finally, Al-Monitor reported that PM Netanyahu's four "non-negotiable" demands for a ceasefire deal are causing problems for Egyptian mediators, who are trying to find common ground that Hamas and Israel can agree on. Netanyahu's demands are new and far removed from the slim common ground Hamas can reasonably accede to. Iran •Analysts agree that President-elect Pezeshkian won't be able to effect real policy changes in Iran's rigid theocracy, but the NYT hopes he'll at least be able to "shift the tone" and "tilt Iran away from the hard-line policies such as the mandatory hijab, which led to widespread discontent, an uprising and harsh crackdowns by the authorities." •While campaigning, Pezeshkian also indicated he's willing to negotiate with the U.S. to alleviate sanctions: "Why should we be fighting with the whole world?" [Of course, he'll only be allowed to negotiate within the narrow bounds Ayatollah Khamenei and the clerics set for him.] •Separately, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines reported that Iran has been provoking and funding U.S.-based anti-Israel protests over Gaza to stoke political opposition to the war. In many cases, Iran-linked agents pose as online activists to agitate distrust in U.S. policy. China •Japanese observers spotted China's Shandong Carrier Group operating in the Philippine Sea for the first time this year (it deployed there three times last year). Its deployments always make Japan uneasy, and Japanese jets scrambled in response to this one, too. Electric Vehicles •Tesla's U.S. electric vehicle (EV) market share fell below 50% for the first time in the second quarter. Overall EV sales were up 11% year-over-year. Ford and GM also had strong quarterly sales.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 24 June Coming Up This Week •WSJ journalist Evan Gershkovich will go on trial in Yekaterinburg, Russia on trumped-up espionage charges starting Wednesday. The media will be locked out of the trial, which could last between four months and one year. •Iran will vote for a successor to late president Raisi on Friday. The clerics have blocked most reformist candidates from running...which could backfire and split conservative support between five hardline candidates, leaving the sole moderate candidate allowed on the ballot - Masoud Pezeshkian - with a greater share of the vote than he would've otherwise received (he's still unlikely to win - and even if he wins, unlikely to effect change from the mostly-symbolic presidency). •On Saturday, the UN will hold a conference on Afghanistan in Qatar, and the Taliban will attend for the first time. To the dismay of some rights campaigners, the UN dropped all the preconditions that deterred the Taliban from attending the two previous UN conferences on Afghanistan - like including women's rights on the agenda - to encourage Taliban participation. •The first round of France's snap parliamentary election will also take place on Saturday. Polls predict strong support for the far-right Rassemblement National. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,514/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $22,900/ton •Cobalt: $27,150/ton •Copper: $9,683/ton •Gold: $2,332/toz •Lead: $2,191/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.70/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $80.87/barrel •Zinc: $2,844/ton Russia •Gunmen carried out several coordinated attacks on churches, synogogues, and police stations in two cities in the restive, majority-Muslim Russian region of Dagestan. •Russian authorities said the attackers were "adherents of an international terrorist organization," and their tactics and high degree of coordination recall Islamic State-Khorasan's (IS-K's) attack on Crocus Hall three months ago, but no group - including IS-K - has claimed the Dagestan attacks yet. •Pres. Putin prefers to brush ethnic and religious tensions under the rug to preserve pro-Russia harmony, so these latest attacks will be another annoyance for him. Some pro-Putin politicians are already blaming the West (without evidence) for inciting them. Ukraine •Russian authorities also blamed the U.S. for supplying the ATACMS missiles they say Ukraine used in a strike on Crimea that ended up killing at least four civilians on a crowded beach in Crimea yesterday. •[To be clear, Ukraine didn't target a crowded beach: Russia intercepted missiles headed for military targets (which Russia says the U.S. helped identify) as they flew over a crowded beach, causing fragments to fall on beachgoers below.] Gaza •Prime Minister Netanyahu told an interviewer that Israel's current ground offensive in southern Gaza is "about to end," and suggested that he could redeploy some of the troops fighting there to the north to intimidate - and perhaps eventually fight - Hezbollah. •Meanwhile, Israel's Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, is in Washington this week to lobby for continued U.S. support for Israel. Afghanistan •Nicaragua appointed a "non-resident" ambassador to Afghanistan, but stopped short of officially recognizing the Taliban government. The new envoy, Michael Campbell, is also Nicaragua's ambassador to China, and will serve both roles from his office in Beijing. •Afghanistan scored a surprise upset against Australia in the T20 Cricket World Cup on Saturday. I don't understand anything about cricket or how it's scored, but I can tell from the media's gushing reports that Afghanistan's "148/6 (20)" was an impressive win over the reigning champion's "127 (19.2)". Afghanistan plays Bangladesh tomorrow and could still make the semi-finals. Energy in Africa •Guinea-Conakry's junta signed a memorandum of understanding with Russia's Rosatom for an ambitious project to build a floating nuclear power plant.
Open source reportOff Leash update 12 June Hezbollah •An Israeli strike in southern Lebanon killed four Hezbollah commanders, including a very senior one, Taleb Abdallah (aka Abu Taleb). Hezbollah then retaliated by firing a barrage of around 150 rockets into northern Israel. •The NYT assessed that Israel's strikes in Lebanon are designed to push Hezbollah back across the Litani river so that its rockets are farther out of striking range - and so that over 150,000 displaced civilians can eventually populate a buffer zone at the border. Gaza •Hamas submitted a formal response to the U.S.-pitched (but Israeli-originated) ceasefire proposal, and SecState Blinken - who has been shuttling around the Middle East trying to rally support for the plan - exasperatedly acknowledged that some of the changes Hamas demanded in its response were not "workable." •Hamas and a smaller Gazan militant group aligned with Hamas (Palestinian Islamic Jihad) said they were prepared to "deal positively to arrive at an agreement," but Blinken's unmasked disappointment with Hamas's response suggests there's still a big gap between the two sides. •Israel hasn't formally accepted the proposal either, but SecState Blinken said PM Netanyahu had privately "reaffirmed his commitment to the proposal" on Monday. Netanyahu prefers to stall and see if Hamas kills the proposal first - rather than risk losing his right-wing coalition partners by signing a deal Hamas won't accept anyway. •Separately, an independent UN investigation found both Israel and Hamas guilty of committing war crimes, and additionally accused Israel of crimes against humanity for killing tens of thousands of civilians (who Hamas militants are using as human shields). Israel responded to the report by accusing its authors of "systematic anti-Israel discrimination." Ukraine •Ukraine used replenished stocks of anti-aircraft missiles to intercept 29 of the 30 incoming missiles and drones Russia fired across the border overnight. That's a much better success rate than Ukraine was able to achieve when it had to ration dwindling air defense supplies. •Pres. Zelensky boasted that this high success rate could be a "daily achievement" if Western partners send more air defense supplies. •On that note, the U.S. said it would send Ukraine a second Patriot missile system. This one will come from Poland after the U.S. troops it's currently protecting there rotate back home in the coming weeks. Haiti •Haiti's new interim prime minister, Garry Conille, appointed a new cabinet, ousting most of the ministers from former PM Henry's ineffective government. South Africa •Former president Zuma's upstart uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party is seeking to spoil the election in which his former African National Congress (ANC) party lost its majority. •MK filed formal objections alleging widespread irregularities in the poll - without offering any evidence to support its claim - and filed legal papers to block the ANC from convening its first parliamentary session on Friday. •Zuma's appeals are unlikely to reverse election results, but they may hinder the ANC's progress forming a national unity government. That may be Zuma's real goal anyway: Zuma despises his successor and bitter rival, Pres. Ramaphosa, and would be pleased to see the ANC struggle to re-elect Ramaphosa. Other News •Malawi's president confirmed that his vice president, Saulos Chilima, was killed in a plane crash along with nine others. The crash was attributed to bad weather. •A fire broke out in a dilapidated and overcrowded building housing migrant workers in southern Kuwait, killing at least 41. Deputy PM Sheikh Fahad Yusuf Saud Al-Sabah criticized "the greed of real estate owners" who chose to skimp on proper maintenance and safety measures.
Open source reportOff Leash update 11 June Gaza •The UN Security Council (UNSC) passed a U.S.-backed resolution supporting the latest Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal, with Russia abstaining instead of blocking the vote with a veto. The UNSC's support is symbolically important because it conveys broad international backing for a deal, but ultimately only Israel and Hamas can sign off on this deal. •To that end, SecState Blinken is on his eighth trip since Oct. 7 to the Middle East with a straightforward message for the foreign leaders he'll meeting with: "If you want a ceasefire, press Hamas to say, yes." •Blinken is portraying Hamas's assent as the only remaining obstacle to a ceasefire deal, but Israel hasn't agreed to the current terms yet, either. •It's true that the current terms were originally conceived by Israel before Pres. Biden leaked them to the media (on a Friday night after Israel's ultra-orthodox - who oppose offering Hamas any concessions - had powered off their phones for the sabbath), but PM Netanyahu will have a hard time selling the deal to his most conservative supporters, who have threatened to abandon his fragile coalition if he fails to destroy Hamas. •Meanwhile, NBC News reported that the U.S. is considering a separate bilateral deal with Hamas to release five American hostages. It's not clear what the U.S. would offer Hamas in return. Ukraine •Ukraine claimed it successfully destroyed one of Russia's ~14 remaining Sukhoi Su-57 fighter jets in a drone strike on the Akhtubinsk airfield inside Russia. Initial reports suggest Ukraine used its own drones in the strike - not advanced Western weapons it recently got permission to use inside Russia. •Separately, an investigation by BBC Russia and Mediazona found that over 19,500 Wagner mercenaries died in the "Bakhmut meat grinder" between Jan. 2022 and Aug. 2023. That's consistent with the "over 20,000" men that Wagner's late founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said he lost in the grueling battle for the town. •The new report said over 17,000 of the men Wagner lost in Bakhmut were former prisoners that Pres. Putin pardoned in exchange for their commitment to fight. Yemen •Yemen's Houthi rebels said they interrupted an "American-Israeli spy cell" after arresting around 12 UN personnel and staff of a U.S.-funded pro-democracy group, the National Democratic Institute. U.S., Israeli, and UN officials declined to comment. Afghanistan •Russia's foreign ministry said it's considering removing the Taliban from its list of terrorist organizations in order to facilitate dialogue on "issues such as drug trafficking, terrorism, and organized crime." •Delisting could be the first step towards recognizing the Taliban government. [Russia - which lost global allies after invading Ukraine and is eager for international friends - would be the first country to officially recognize the Taliban government.] Other News •A plane carrying Malawi's vice president, a former first lady, and eight others went missing in bad weather. Pres. Chakwera said authorities are searching through thick brush with "every fiber of hope that we will find survivors."
Open source reportOff Leash Update 4 June Gaza •Two far-right members of PM Netanyahu's fragile coalition - his national security minister and finance minister - threatened to bring down his government if he accepts the ceasefire deal Pres. Biden proposed. The opposing ministers say they'll refuse any deal that lets Hamas survive as a political entity. Ukraine •On Friday, the Biden administration said it would allow Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied weapons to strike targets inside Russia. Later that day, Ukraine did just that: it used HIMARS launchers to target Belgorod Friday night, and may have also used U.S. weapons to destroy a Russian S-300 yesterday. A Ukrainian official observed that the S-300 "burns beautifully." Russia •Russian bots are flooding EU voters' news feeds with disinformation ahead of this weekend's election for the regional parliament. Aside from the usual fake news about Ukraine, Russian e-trolls are churning out false stories to create skepticism about liberal EU climate policies to nudge voters to support candidates who are more open to relaxing sanctions on Russia and buying more Russian gas. Iran •Iran's acting Foreign Minister, Ali Bagheri, acknowledged that the U.S. and Iran continue to engage in indirect talks via Omani mediators: "We have always continued our negotiations…and they have never stopped." Bagheri would know: he was a lead participant in the discussions earlier this year. Sahel •Bloomberg reported that Russia's state nuclear company, Rosatom, is negotiating with Niger's junta to acquire French mining assets in the Sahel. Niger is the world's seventh-largest uranium producer - with about 4% of global production last year - and the junta would be happy to sever more ties with the country's former colonial power (France) in favor of Russia, which has been sending Niger military support with few overt strings attached. North Korea •I should clarify yesterday's news about South Korea pulling out of its 2018 non-escalation pact with North Korea: the North already suspended its side of the deal and the South partially suspended it last year, so Seoul's latest move would only sever the thin remaining symbolic threads of the original pact. •The North is probably more upset about the threat of K-pop and real news blasting over the border than the South is about the trash-filled balloons floating over to its side. One analyst summarized Kim Jong Un's dilemma nicely: "Kim doesn't want his people to know about their relative deprivation and the quality of life in the free world. He is more afraid of [K-pop band] BTS than U.S. nukes." South Africa •South Africa's African National Congress (ANC) is reportedly in talks with the Democratic Alliance (DA) about a coalition government. South Africa's stocks, bonds, and currency rose on the news that the ANC plans to work with the pro-business DA instead of a less business-friendly party like Jacob Zuma's MK. Other News •Nigerians are striking en masse to demand higher wages amidst the highest inflation levels in 28 years - caused in part by Pres. Tinubu's efforts at economic reform, which included ending disastrous fuel subsidies. Workers protesting the economically painful adjustments Tinubu's reforms have shut down the national security grid and suspended operations at major airports.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 3 June Coming Up This Week •Results from India's six-week election are due tomorrow. Exit polls show a comfortable lead for PM Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) party, despite challenges from a newly-united opposition calling for a fairer distribution of power and economic opportunities. •Russia has invited friendly countries - including China and India, but also North Korea and Taliban Afghanistan - for the St. Petersburg International Forum Wednesday through Saturday. •Thursday (June 6) is the 80th anniversary of the D-Day landings. •EU countries vote for the bloc's parliament Thursday through Sunday. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,653/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $21,250/ton •Cobalt: $27,150/ton •Copper: $10,040/ton •Gold: $2,330/toz •Lead: $2,273/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.71/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $76.72/barrel •Zinc: $2,970/ton South Africa •South Africa released official election results on Saturday, confirming that the ruling African National Congress (ANC) party lost its majority for the first time since Nelson Mandela led it to victory in 1994. •The ANC, which won 40.2% of the vote, now has two weeks to form a coalition, but its factions disagree on which opposition party to bring into a coalition. •Pragmatic voices favor the business-friendly Democratic Alliance (DA), which won 21.8% of the vote and would easily bring the ANC over the 50% mark for a majority. •Former ANC president Zuma's upstart uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party won - some would say spoiled - 14.6% of the vote, and thus could also bring the ANC over the 50% mark; however, Zuma has a bitter history with many in the ANC, including Pres. Ramaphosa. •The Marxist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), which won 9.5% of the vote, wouldn't bring enough votes to get the ANC's coalition to 50% by itself: the ANC would need to bring a third minor party in, too. Mexico •Climate scientist Claudia Sheinbaum won enough votes in yesterday's Mexican presidential election that poll officials are already calling the poll in her favor. •Sheinbaum is part of Pres. AMLO's Morena party - which may have won a two-thirds super-majority yesterday - and a mentee of AMLO, but she hasn't been vocal about whether she plans to continue his populist policies or change course to try to fix the economic woes that worsened under his rule. Gaza •Pres. Biden shared a new ceasefire proposal with Israel, forcing PM Netanyahu to make a tough decision: if he accepts a deal for peace in Gaza, he'll secure the release of Hamas's hostages - but risk losing the hard-right support that his government needs to stay in power. •Nonetheless, the White House said it has "every expectation" that Netanyahu will accept the proposal if Hamas does (Hamas hasn't officially responded yet). •The three phases of the tabled proposal are: oFirst phase: A six-week ceasefire would see Israel withdraw from major Gazan cities and let displaced Gazans return to the north; Israel would release hundreds of jailed Palestinians and allow aid flows to resume. In return, Hamas would also observe the ceasefire and would release some (elderly, female, and wounded) hostages. oSecond phase: Israel would completely withdraw from Gaza to honor a permanent ceasefire (the proposal doesn't answer the hard question of who would run Gaza after Israel withdraws). Hamas would release all living prisoners, including male soldiers, and Israel would release more prisoners. oThird phase: Hamas would return the remains of dead hostages and kick off a three- to five-year reconstruction period. North Korea •South Korea was displeased at the trash- and excrement-filled balloons North Korea floated over their shared border last week, and said it would scrap a 2018 agreement it signed with its northern neighbor to ease tensions. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 21 May Iran •Iranian state media blamed the helicopter crash that killed Pres. Raisi on "technical failure," and that seems like a reasonable explanation for it: the Bell 212 helicopter Raisi was flying in was over 40 years old and weather conditions were poor. •Ayatollah Khamenei lamented the loss of his protégé Raisi, but vowed that there would be "no disruption" to the government. That's true: Iran's president is a figurehead beholden to the clerics, who will ensure that Raisi's successor is another conservative hardliner. Gaza •The International Criminal Court's chief prosecutor requested arrest warrants for both Israeli PM Netanyahu and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar for war crimes and crimes against humanity, emphasizing that "international law and the laws of armed conflict apply to all." •In this case, those laws probably won't be applied to either Netanyahu or Sinwar in court: even if judges decide to issue the requested warrants, the process would take months, and neither Israel nor Gaza recognizes the court's authority, so Netanyahu and Sinwar would be safe from arrest as long as they don't travel to any of the court's 124 member countries. •Separately, U.S National Security Advisor Sullivan traveled to Israel to nudge PM Netanyahu toward a ceasefire agreement linked to a "political strategy" for Gaza's future. China •China added three U.S. defense contractors that sell to Taiwan - General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, General Dynamics Land Systems and Boeing Defense, Space & Security - to its list of "unreliable entities" that are banned from exporting to or importing from China. •A U.S. Senate inquiry found that BMW, Jaguar Land Rover, and Volkswagen imported parts purchased (indirectly) from a Chinese supplier known to use forced labor in Xinjiang province. Sen. Wyden (D-OR) blamed the manufacturers for not doing enough to vet their suppliers: "automakers are sticking their heads in the sand and then swearing they can’t find any forced labor in their supply chains." Ukraine •Ukraine implemented nationwide rolling blackouts for the first time this year to conserve precious power supplies, which have been constrained by Russian attacks on energy infrastructure. •Russia's offensive in northern Ukraine has slowed down, and Ukrainian forces are holding the Russians back between Kharkiv and the border. Afghanistan •An explosion in the Taliban's political heartland of Kandahar killed at least one person yesterday. •The Taliban's official statements depicted the blast as a minor incident that randomly targeted civilians, but local reports claimed it was a much more serious attack that targeted Taliban security forces, killing far more than one person. Saudi Arabia •Saudi's King Salman is suffering from a lung infection and it's severe enough that his son, Crown Prince MBS, postponed a planned trip to Japan to be with his ailing father. Other News •The UK's High Court ruled that WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange can appeal his pending extradition to the U.S. to face charges under the Espionage Act. He will try to appeal on the basis that - as a foreign national (he's Australian) - he wouldn't get a fair trial in the U.S.
Open source reportOff Leash update May 16 Ukraine •Analysts are worried about Russia's rapid recent advances along multiple fronts in Ukraine - including two lines of attack in the north near Kharkiv. •The situation is dire enough that Pres. Zelensky postponed his upcoming foreign trips to focus on countering the incursions. •The NYT speculated that Russia's real goal in the north could be to draw Ukraine's forces away from other fronts to reinforce Kharkiv, leaving a thin front line that Russia can assault in another offensive next month. China •Presidents Putin and Xi began two days of meetings in Beijing by celebrating their countries' partnership as "one of the main stabilising factors on the international arena." •They're expected to discuss economic cooperation and the war in Ukraine - in particular, Putin hopes to find ways to expand China's supply of dual-use goods for his war (which Beijing justifies in the name of "safeguarding regional and global security and stability"). •Meanwhile, China vowed to retaliate against new U.S. tariffs on electric vehicles (EVs) and other novel technologies with "resolute measures" - perhaps including countertariffs, restrictions on tech exports, or boycotts of unrelated but important U.S. imports like soybeans. •China may also seek ways to evade the new tariffs. For example, Chinese EV maker BYD previously said it was considering opening new factories in Mexico to build cars for the Mexican market, and U.S. policymakers are concerned it - and other Chinese manufacturers - could use Mexican plants as a backdoor to reach the U.S. market without paying tariffs. U.S. Trade Representative Tai hinted that her office is contemplating additional penalties on tariff evaders. •Separately, China sent dozens of armed ships to block unarmed Filipino demonstrators from asserting their country's claim to the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea. The protesters have the tacit support of their government in Manila, while Beijing hopes that by stymying their demonstration it can legitimize its claim to the atoll. Gaza •Yoav Gallant - Israel's defense minister and a perpetual thorn in PM Netanyahu's side - called on Netanyahu to present a "day-after" plan for running Gaza after the war ends. Netanyahu immediately rejected the idea of committing to a long-run plan while Hamas is still in power, calling it "detached from reality." •U.S. Central Command announced that it anchored the floating pier that will receive humanitarian aid for Gaza. Its first aid shipments - including a UK shipment of 8,400 temporary shelters - are already en route. Other News •Slovakia's PM Robert Fico survived an assassination attempt that appears to have been politically motivated. Fico began his political career in the Communist Party, but has drifted to the right over the course of his three terms as PM, and now has stronger ties with Hungary's PM Orban and Russia's Pres. Putin than some of his pro-European constituents are comfortable with.
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 May Gaza Pres. Netanyahu was displeased with Pres. Biden's threat to stop sending certain highly destructive weapons to Israel if Israel launches a full-scale invasion of Rafah (even though Israel appears to have toned down its ambitions for Rafah to a smaller-scale operation that probably won't cross Biden's red line) Netanyahu - who must appease hardliners - insisted Israel could (theoretically) carry out the full-scale plan alone: "If we need to stand alone, we will stand alone...if necessary we will fight with our fingernails." It probably will not be necessary. Ukraine and Russia Ukrainian drones struck two oil depots and a refinery deep inside Russia over the past 24 hours: one was over 700 miles (1,100 km) inside the border. An oil expert estimated to the NYT that the attacks incapacitated over 10% of Russia's refining capacity - though given the importance of oil to Russia's war funding and foreign earnings, it'll surely be rebuilt quickly. During Pres. Xi's visit to Hungary, nationalist president Orban enthusiastically endorsed China's 12-point peace plan for Ukraine. The Chinese plan was released to great fanfare over a year ago (Feb. 2023) but has failed to gain much traction: Hungary is the only European country to endorse it. China's promise to invest in building a BYD electric vehicle production plant in southern Hungary may have helped secure Orban's support. Separately, EU member states agreed to a plan to use the proceeds (e.g. interest) from Russian central bank funds frozen in European banks to augment Ukraine's defenses and fund post-war reconstruction. Those proceeds are expected to free up about €3 billion ($3.3 billion) per year. Sudan Human Rights Watch accused the Rapid Support Forces and its (mostly Arab) allies of genocide against the (non-Arab) Massalit in El Geneina, West Darfur. The report called for an investigation and an arms embargo on Sudan. Sahel Chad's military ruler and incumbent interim president, Mahamat Idriss Déby, was declared the winner of a very predictable election after sidelining rivals - lethally in one case. The opposition cried foul.
Open source reportOff Leash update May 7 Gaza •Hamas said it has accepted the terms of a ceasefire proposal from Egypt and Hamas that could stop the fighting - at least temporarily. •The terms of the proposal aren't yet public, but the NYT reported that experts say it has only "minor word changes" from the one Israel recently offered. However, other reports suggest PM Netanyahu has already rejected the proposal Hamas accepted as "far from Israel's basic requirements." •The U.S. is pushing Israel to consider the proposal on the table and hold off on sending ground troops into Rafah, but the clock is winding down: Israel's War Cabinet approved the ground invasion of Rafah unanimously, and prospects for a deal will dim after that begins, since Hamas has threatened to walk away from talks once it starts. •Families of the remaining hostages are also pleading with Israel to accept a deal instead of invading Rafah: some of them are blocking highways in Ayalon to make their demands heard. •Separately, Israeli police raided the local offices of Al Jazeera after Israel's parliament ordered the network to cease operations in the country on national security grounds. Al Jazeera defiantly called the raid a "criminal action" and continued to criticize Israel's war in Gaza. North Korea •The Economist reported that North Koreans were asked to swear their loyalty to Kim Jong Un during a ceremony on Jan. 8 celebrating Kim's 40th birthday. Analysts think the loyalty oaths were designed to solidify Kim's grip on power by boosting his cult of popularity. Ukraine and Russia •Russia said it would hold new military exercises near Ukraine to practice for the possible future use of "tactical" battlefield nuclear weapons. •Pres. Putin has consistently denied - including as recently as March - that he's ever considered using tactical nukes, so these exercises seem like provocative bluster in reaction to recent escalating rhetoric from Western leaders like France's Pres. Macron, who refused to rule out sending French troops to Ukraine (though he most likely would never do so), and top UK diplomat David Cameron, who said Ukraine is free to use weapons from the UK to strike targets inside Russia. •Separately, Russia detained a U.S. Army soldier in Vladivostok on charges of criminal misconduct. U.S. military personnel are strongly discouraged against travel to Russia because of the risk of detentions like this. Libya •Royal Jordanian and Qatar Airways will resume flights to Libya's Tripoli International Airport this month after a long hiatus, and Saudi Airlines is in talks to start servicing Tripoli routes, too. That seems like a good sign of stabilization in Libya - though it took longer than planned to revitalize Tripoli's airport due to cost overruns.
Open source reportOff Leash update 1 May Russia •Finland's national airline, Finnair, reported that some of its recent flights were interrupted because of radar jams hear the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. •Russia seems to be responsible for the jams, but - as The Economist explains - its interference is probably more defensive than nefarious: Kaliningrad is heavily militarized, and the jams are probably designed to scramble Ukrainian attack drones targeting Russian military sites there. Gaza •SecState Blinken will meet PM Netanyahu and other top Israeli officials today, and is expected to press them to speed up aid shipments to Gaza. •Blinken and other diplomats have been encouraging Israel to stall its ground invasion of Rafah to improve odds for a ceasefire deal, but Netanyahu reaffirmed that the Rafah operation will go ahead "with or without" a deal. •Separately, the UN's International Court of Justice rejected Nicaragua's case against Germany for shipping weapons to Israel. China •China's latest and most advanced aircraft carrier, the Fujian, left the Jiangnan Shipyard for its first sea trials. Following the trials, the 80,000-ton Fujian will become the third carrier in China's fleet, after the 66,000-ton Shandong and the 60,000-ton Liaoning. Haiti •Haiti's new transitional council selected little-known former sports minister Fritz Bélizaire to be the country's new interim prime minister as it tries to root out gangs and establish a stable government. •Bélizaire replaced Michel Patrick Boisvert, who became interim PM only last week when the council formally took over from ousted (and unelected) PM Henry. •Bélizaire may not last long either: he only won the support of four of the council's nine members, and the other five indicated they didn't know him well enough to appoint him. DRC •UN peacekeepers ended operations in South Kivu for good this week, leaving MONUSCO active in only North Kivu and Ituri provinces - which are currently facing worse violence than South Kivu. By the end of the year, the UN's longest and costliest peacekeeping mission will fully wind down and exit DRC. Sahel •Mali said its forces - along with Tuareg fighters - killed Islamic State commander Abu Huzeifa (aka Higgo), who planned the 2017 attack that killed four U.S. troops in Tongo Tongo, Niger. •The operation took place in Liptako, which is where the porous borders of three junta-run countries - Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger - meet. •Its success is a strategic win for the three juntas, who recently banded together (with Russian support) to form the anti-extremist Alliance of Sahel States after they were evicted from the regional ECOWAS bloc following their coups. Sudan •Amidst the looming spectre of a second genocide in Darfur, the U.S. asked the UAE and other allies to stop arming the Rapid Support Forces. (The UAE insists it "is not supplying any arms or ammunition to any faction engaged in the ongoing conflict in Sudan," but evidence suggests it actually is.) Yemen •Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels claimed a drone strike on a container ship in the Red Sea on Friday, and yesterday authorities confirmed their claim. •The ship they struck was the Portuguese-flagged MSC Orion, and this was their longest-range confirmed strike yet: it occurred around 375 miles (600 km) off the coast of Yemen. •The Orion sustained only minor damage and continued its voyage. Afghanistan •Islamic State (IS) claimed Monday's attack at a Shia mosque in Herat that killed six, including the imam. IS is the main instigator of anti-Shia attacks in Afghanistan, so its claim wasn't a surprise. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 4/22 -The Philippines and the U.S. begin annual joint military exercises today, but this time the exercises take place far from Philippine territorial waters in a part of the central South China Sea claimed by China. Though international law allows the exercises to take place there, China will see them as a provocation. -Passover begins at sundown today and ends at sundown next Tuesday. North Macedonia votes for president on Wednesday. U.S. SecState Blinken will visit China this week with a warning to Beijing to stop Chinese companies from helping Russia make military hardware. -Commodity Prices Aluminum: $2,669/ton Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $14,200/ton Cobalt: $27,830/ton Copper: $9,876/ton Gold: $2,337/toz Lead: $2,219/ton Natural Gas (Nymex): $1.77/MMbtu WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $82.77/barrel Zinc: $2,852/ton -Iran and Israel Both Iran and Israel seem to be standing down after their tit-for-tat exchange of unprecedented direct strikes last week. Iran downplayed Israel's drone strike on Friday and seems content to let it be the last shot in this volley. Israel's Friday strike hit a defensive battery near some of Iran's most important nuclear infrastructure. Western officials said Israel's objective was to show that it could penetrate Iranian defenses undetected - and it apparently did on Friday. Some Israeli media reports suggest Israel used a supersonic "Rampage" missile in that final strike on Friday. Neither Israel nor Iran are confirming those reports: Iranian officials are happy to let the public believe the foreign minister's comment that the weapons deployed agaisnt Isfahan were "like toys our children play with" rather than a high-tech, 1,250 lb (567 kg) missile. Separately, Iraq's pro-Iran Popular Mobilisation Forces accused the U.S. of striking one of its bases near Baghdad, killing one militant -Gaza The U.S. is reportedly planning to slap sanctions on the Israel Defence Forces' Netzah Yehuda Battalion for alleged human rights violations it committted in the West Bank. PM Netanyahu vowed to "fight" the sanctions, which would suspend U.S. funding and training for the unit. Israel's head of military intelligence, Aharon Haliva, became the first senior official to resign over the failure to foresee and prevent Hamas's Oct. 7 attacks. The attacks happened over six months ago, but as protests against PM Netanyahu's handling of the war grow, critics want heads to roll. Ukraine -Sadly after much delay and politicking, the U.S. House approved a long-stalled $95 billion foreign aid bill for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. Ukraine celebrated the news: $61 billion of the total is earmarked for it, including $14 billion for weapons. The Kremlin warned that the bill's passage would "further ruin" Ukraine. -Venezuela Saturday was the deadline for swapping candidates on the ballot for Venezuela's July presidential election. The opposition had hoped to put its unity leader, Maria Corina Machado, on the ballot, but she's still barred from running under a politically-motivated technicality, so all 10 parties in the main opposition coalition aligned behind a relatively unknown former diplomat, Edmundo González, as their candidate. -Myanmar Recently-united rebel groups are rapidly retaking territory from government forces in Myanmar. Rebels now control over half the country. China The Maldives' pro-China ruling People's National Congress (PNC) party won a decisive victory in this weekend's parliamentary elections, with enough seats to secure an outright majority. The PNC's leader, incumbent president Muizzu, steered the country closer to China but has been restrained by a pro-India party's control of the legislature. Now that the PNC controls the legislature too, we'll likely see the Maldives pivot more sharply towards China. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash Update 18 April Israel and Iran •According to NYT interviews after the fact, Israel didn't expect its April 1 strike on an Iranian embassy complex in Damascus to lead to the escalation that unfolded from it, and didn't even warn the U.S. about it until moments before it happened. •That now seems like a severe miscalculation: Israel failed to recognize that Iran's decision-making - like Israel's own - is influenced by hardliners who will reliably demand retribution at least as severe as the offense it avenges. •Israel's allies are urging it in the other direction: UK Foreign Secretary (and ex-PM) David Cameron and German Foreign Minister Annelena Baerbock both visited Israel to encourage a diplomatic response to Iran's weekend strikes instead of a military one. •PM Netanyahu seemed unmoved by the overtures: both Cameron and Baerbock assessed that Israel still intends to retaliate militarily, and after the meetings Netanyahu reasserted that Israel would prioritize its own interests and "do everything necessary to defend itself." •That said, the Israeli response may be limited. Israel's Arab neighbors say Israel has signalled it will restrict its retaliation to striking additional Iran-linked facilities in Syria, and pledged its response to Iran wouldn't endanger its allies' security. •Some Iran-linked bases in Syria have already evacuated personnel in anticipation of another strike there; others are operating only during the day (Israel usually strikes at night). Gaza •Qatar said it is undergoing a "complete re-evaluation of its role" mediating between Israel and Hamas after facing "exploitation and abuse" from unnamed "politicians who are trying to conduct election campaigns by slighting the State of Qatar." •PM Netanyahu is probably one of the anonymous detractors Qatar was complaining about: he has frequently criticized Qatar's mediation, refused to consider its negotiation recommendations, and threatened to ban its state news organization, Al Jazeera. Venezuela •Quiet talks between the U.S. and Venezuela over extending Venezuela's temporary sanctions relief broke down, and the U.S. allowed a six-month oil sales license to expire at midnight this morning. •The license had been granted in exchange for a commitment from Pres. Maduro to hold free and fair elections this year, but he broke that commitment by continuing to crack down on the opposition and scuppering their chances against him in July's election. Myanmar •Myanmar's junta moved deposed opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi from prison to an undisclosed location in the capital. •They cited concerns about her safety in a heat wave roasting the prison, but the rest of Naypyidaw is just as hot and they're probably not hosting her in an air-conditioned suite. •It's more likely that the junta is getting worried about the alliance of rebel groups threatening their regime and wants to make sure they hold onto their highest-value prisoner. China •Pres. Biden plans to announce a tripling in tariffs for Chinese steel imports, which are currently set at 7.5%. •Chinese steel represents only 0.6% of U.S. demand, so higher tariffs shouldn't raise U.S. consumer prices much - the increase is more of a political gambit to win voters in steel towns like the one in Pennsylvania where Biden will make his announcement. •Separately, a congressional committee accused China of complicity in the U.S. opioid crisis for offering tax rebates to manufacturers that produce fentanyl ingredients - as long as their products are sold abroad.
Open source reportOff Leash 10 April Gaza The NYT exposed a covert Iranian operation to flood the West Bank with smuggled weapons - mostly small arms - to foment chaos and create problems for Israel. Iranian officials told the Times the operation isn't focused on a particular armed group - rather, it aims to get guns into as many Palestinian hands as possible. Separately, Israel's defense minister, Yoav Gallant, contradicted his boss's earlier assertion that a date had been set for the ground invasion of Rafah to begin. Gallant told U.S. SecDef Austin that the date has not yet been decided. The U.S. and other countries are still urging Israel to use restraint and forge a peace deal instead of invading Rafah, and their pleas are becoming sharper and more direct. For example, yesterday Pres. Biden criticized PM Netanyahu's approach to Gaza in the harshest terms he's used yet, calling it a "mistake." China Fitch downgraded its long-term outlook for China's sovereign debt from stable to negative based on analysts' expectations that the government will boost its borrowing in an effort to jump start economic growth. Beijing called the downgrade a "pity" and insisted the local "hidden" debts Fitch was especially concerned about are manageable. Russia Melting snow is causing devastating floods along Russia's Ural river, forcing hundreds of thousands of people to evacuate their homes. The Ural floods every year as snow melts off the Ural mountains, but this year's floods are already the worst in decades - and haven't even peaked yet. Some Russians affected by the floods blamed Pres. Putin for ignoring their crisis and staged a rare protest to demand more government help. Separately, Russia's fun-hating republic of Chechnya extinguished another spark of joy by banning dance music that's either too fast (over 116 beats per minute) or too slow (under 80 beats per minute). Chechen musicians have until June 1 to re-record non-compliant tunes within the legal tempo range so they "conform to the Chechen mentality and sense of rhythm." Libya The U.S. State Department clarified recent reports about an American private security contractor - Amentum - training Libyan armed groups: the State Department says Amentum is only offering "classroom training" - not military training - and is conducting its sessions "outside of Libya." DRC Mortar fire killed three Tanzanian troops from the South African Development Community force fighting M23 rebels in eastern DRC. The blasts occurred at the same camp near Goma where two South African soldiers were killed in a similar attack in February. Other News A group of 2,000 elderly Swiss women won a landmark case at the European Court of Human Rights: the court ruled that Swiss policymakers violated the women's human rights by failing to implement adequate climate policies to prevent adverse health outcomes. The case sets a precedent for Europeans to sue their countries for better climate policies. Conservative Swiss media called the ruling "absurd." (EP note. Correct that is completely absurd!)
Open source reportOff Leash Update 4/9 Gaza Turkey lodged a form of protest over Israel's war in Gaza by enacting new restrictions on exports of 54 military items to Israel. The move was partly a response to Israel's opposition to Turkish aid airdrops in Gaza, but also an acknowledgement of rising public anger over the war, which was in full view when thousands of Turks turned out to demonstrate against Israel over the weekend. The leaders of France, Egypt, and Jordan also put Israel on notice: they warned of "dangerous consequences" if Israel proceeds with its planned ground invasion of Rafah. Israel seems to be moving forward with the Rafah invasion anyway: today PM Netanyahu announced that a date had been set for the operation (though he didn't share that date with the media). Hamas still hasn't officially responded to Israel's latest ceasefire proposal, but its leaders said the plan failed to meet any of their demands. They plan to deliver a formal response to mediators in the coming days. Separately, Israel issued a warning to Iran, which is weighing its options for retaliating against last week's Israeli strike that killed seven of its military officials in Damascus last week. Israel warned that it would strike nuclear facilities in Iran if Iran attacks targets within Israel. Some analysts are guessing that Iran will instead focus on Israeli-linked targets (like embassies) in a third country. Russia Six northern European countries - Belgium, Britain, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, and Norway - signed an agreement to work together to protect underwater infrastructure (e.g. telecom and power cables and gas pipes) from sabotage by "hostile actors." Russia is the main threat they're concerned about - and the main suspect in last year's attacks on the Nord Stream pipeline. Libya According to new reports, PM Dbeibah's government has hired the U.S. security contracting firm Amentum to train his 444th, 111th, and 166th Brigades, with a goal of bringing divergent factions together and hardening Libya's borders. The U.S. State Department apparently condones the program: it's coordinating with Amentum. Afghanistan The Taliban's acting telecoms minister confirmed to ToloNews that his government plans to ban access to Facebook from Afghanistan. Human rights groups condemned the news. Other News March's global temperatures broke seasonal heat records for the tenth month in a row: the El Niño weather cycle is exacerbating a long-term upward trend in temperatures due to greenhouse gas emissions.
Open source reportOff Leash 6 April Gaza and Israel Presidents Biden and Netanyahu spoke by phone yesterday, and Biden warned Netanyahu that continued U.S. support for Israel's war in Gaza "will be determined by" what steps Israel takes to avoid killing civilians and alleviate humanitarian suffering. Soon after their call - and probably encouraged by it - Israel agreed to open new direct aid routes and increase aid deliveries from Jordan. Biden also assured Netanyahu during their call that Israel has America's support in the face of Iran's threats to retaliate for Israeli strikes that killed three generals in Damascus last week. The Israeli public is worried about direct Iranian reprisals, but Israeli officials are reassuring them that there's no need to stock up on wartime supplies like generators, food, and cash: "people can relax." That's probably correct, because Iran's retaliation would likely be as calculated as Israel's strike was: Tehran has little interest in open war with Israel. Iran Jaish al-Adl - a Baloch separatist terrorist group alternately known as Jundullah - claimed responsibility for two separate attacks in the Sistan and Baluchestan Provinces of Iran. Militants reportedly tried to take hostages and capture Iranian military bases in both fights, and several suicide bombers detonated during the nearly 17-hour gun battle that killed at least 10 security personnel and 18 militants. Jundallah said its goal in the attacks was to stop Iran's government from further developing the Sunni-heavy part of the Persian Gulf coast known as Makan into a more Shia-dominated area like the rest of the country. Libya The Irish Times reported that an Irish company called Irish Training Solutions (ITS) is using former Irish soldiers to train Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army's (LNA's) 166 Infantry Brigade in the east of the country. The Times called ITS's arrangement with the LNA "an apparent breach of a UN arms embargo," but it's not clear that it is actually is: the UN rules are complicated, and ITS doesn't seem to be flagrantly breaking them by sending weapons - just uniforms, equipment, and assistance. Venezuela The U.S. denied Pres. Maduro's allegations that it runs - or has future plans to run - "secret military bases" in the Guyanese region Venezuela disputes and calls Essequibo. The claim Maduro made about secret U.S. bases on Wednesday was probably intended to rile up his supporters: that's the same day he signed off on results of the December referendum he organized to "officially" lay claim to Essequibo.
Open source reportOff Leash 2 April Update Iran Israel carried out a brazen strike on Iran's consulate in Damascus, Syria, killing seven Iranian military advisors - including three generals. Israel acknowledged the strike but rejected the notion that the building was a diplomatic facility and said it was a military building instead. The distinction is important because - as one NGO director noted - targeting a known diplomatic building would be "akin to targeting Iran on its own soil." Israel seems to be escalating its covert war on Iranian targets in a manner calculated to hinder Iran's offensive operations without drawing it and its proxies into all-out war. Indeed, Iran's response to the Damascus strikes was cautious: Tehran vowed revenge "at the appropriate time and place." Its proxies were more audacious in their revenge threats: the head of the Iraq-based, Iran-backed Hezbollah Brigades militia threatened to arm over 12,000 Jordanians to exact retribution on Israel for the Damascus strike. Israel and Gaza Israel's Knesset passed a law that will allow PM Netanyahu to temporarily block foreign media outlets from operating in the country on national security grounds, and Netanyahu said he will promptly use the new law to ban Al Jazeera, which he has accused of being "a Hamas mouthpiece" and a "terrorist channel" for its sympathetic coverage of Palestinian causes. The White House called the looming ban "concerning" for its challenge to the free press. Separately, the NGO World Central Kitchen (WCK) said an Israeli airstrike killed seven of its foreign national aid workers in Gaza. Israel said it was "carrying out an in-depth examination" of the "tragic incident," and it's already drawing criticism from the aid community. Ukraine and Russia Ukraine launched a drone assault on an oil refinery deep inside Russia in Tatarstan, which is over 600 miles (1,000 km) from the Ukrainian border. Local authorities said the attack caused minimal damage but later conceded several people were injured. China Chinese electronics firm Xiaomi rolled out its new, Porsche-looking Super Ultra 7 (SU7) electric vehicle yesterday, and surprised the market with 90,000 orders for it on the first day - even though it launched in a market already crowded with inexpensive competitors. Xiaomi shares rose 16% on news of its strong first day of sales, raising the firm's enterprise value above that of traditional automakers GM and Ford. DRC Pres. Tshisekedi appointed Judith Suminwa Tuluka to be DRC's first female prime minister. Tuluka was formerly DRC's planning minister, and will now be called upon to craft a plan to bring peace to the restive east of the country. North Korea North Korea fired a suspected intermediate-range ballistic missile into the sea off its east coast early this morning - its third this year. The UN is no longer monitoring the sanctions violations that helped supply North Korea with kit for building missiles like this, thanks to a recent Russian veto on a motion to extend the monitoring program. Some analysts linked Russia's veto to an alleged weapons procurement agreement between Moscow and Pyongyang.
Open source reportOff Leash Daily Update?: NATO celebrates its 75th anniversary on Thursday. SecGen Stoltenberg will commemorate the occasion with a press conference in Brussels. Kuwait votes in a general election on Thursday, and Slovakia votes in the second round of its presidential election on Saturday. Commodity Prices Aluminum: $2,337/ton Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $13,450/ton Cobalt: $28,550/ton Copper: $8,867/ton Gold: $2,233/toz Lead: $2,055/ton Natural Gas (Nymex): $1.76/MMbtu WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $83.17/barrel Zinc: $2,439/ton Gaza and Israel Israel and Hamas resumed ceasefire talks in Cairo yesterday. Then Israel announced an end to its two-week operation in and around al-Shifa hospital, which Israel says Hamas has been using as an operating base. Israel carried out airstrikes on another militant group, Islamic Jihad, in the courtyard of another hospital, Al Aqsa in Deir al Balah. Those strikes reportedly injured seven journalists but killed four members of Islamic Jihad, according to the BBC. Tens of thousands of Israelis took part in protests against PM Netanyahu in Jerusalem yesterday. They want Netanyahu to resign over his handling of the war and hold fresh elections. The demonstrations are set to continue through Wednesday. Meanwhile, The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an Iran-backed Iraqi militia, targeted a naval base in the southern Israeli city of Eilat with what it called "appropriate weapons" that penetrated Israel's air defenses and triggered alarms but caused no casualties. Eilat is the southernmost large city in Israel, which is why Israel's enemies to the south (e.g. this militia and the Houthis in Yemen) often target it. Russia Insider - a Riga-based and Russia-focused investigative journalist outfit - ended a year-long investigation with the conclusion that Russia's military intelligence unit known as 29155 may have been responsible for the mysterious "Havana syndrome" attacks that affected U.S. diplomats and personnel in multiple locations around the globe: Insider found evidence placing 29155 members on the scene of several of the attacks. The Kremlin dismissed the report as "nothing more than baseless, unfounded accusations by the media." Donald Tusk, Poland's PM and a former European Commission President, said Europe is entering a "pre-war era" and encouraged European countries to boost their defense spending in preparation for a possible future war against Russia. The Economist hinted that he was responding to an intensified Russian assault on Ukraine's energy structure. Pouria Zeraati, a UK-based Iranian journalist known for criticizing Iran's regime, was wounded in a stabbing attack in southwest London Friday. UK terror police are investigating whether he was targeted because of his work. Turkey Turkey's main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), stunned Pres. Erdogan's ruling Justice and Development (AK) party by winning local elections. Analysts say the vote signaled a rebuke of Erdogan's plans to introduce a new constitution and consolidate power. Ekrem Imamoglu, Istanbul's CHP mayor, won his bid for re-election against Erdogan's chosen candidate, which led to speculation that Imamoglu could challenge Erdogan for the presidency in the future. Afghanistan A landmine apparently left behind during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s exploded in Ghazni this week, killing at least nine children - and drawing attention to the problem of unexploded ordnance scattered across the country from prior wars. Many minefields have been cleared, but some haven't yet. Libya Assailants attacked Tripoli PM Dbeibah's residence with rocket-propelled grenades yesterday, causing alarm but no casualties. It's not clear who was responsible, but it could have been one of the militias that supports the rival government in Benghazi. China Syngenta, a Swiss pesticides firm owned by China's state-owned ChemChina, cancelled a long-delayed $9 billion IPO (at a valuation of $60 billion) on the
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