Gaza talks, Syria’s transition and regional security developments

Off Leash update 11 Dec

Gaza •Ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas are said to be gaining steam under pressure from Pres.-elect Trump to close a deal soon. [Last week, Trump threatened that there would be "ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East" if hostages weren't released before his inauguration on Jan. 20]. •However, there are no indications that either side has relented on the sticking point that stalled prior talks: Hamas doesn't want to release the rest of its hostages until Israel completely withdraws from Gaza, and Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu has vowed to stay and fight in Gaza until Hamas is evicted from the strip. •Qatar's Prime Minister Al Thani - who is a central mediator between Israel and Hamas - said most of the mechanics of a deal have been worked out, but noted that prospects for an agreement will boil down to whether either side is willing to make concessions to end the war. Syria •Much of deposed Pres. Assad's cabinet stayed on when Assad and his family fled to Moscow, and rebel leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani (who has now rebranded himself "Pres. Ahmed al Shara" on Telegram) met Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi Jalali yesterday to begin transition planning. They jointly appointed Mohammed al-Bashir to form a new transition government. •Al-Golani and Jalili are trying to project an air of normalcy and ensure continuity of government operations, but a UN official said Syria's public sector had come to a "complete and abrupt halt." Many offices remain closed, but overall Syria seems mostly orderly: the only looting taking place is some vengeful trophy hunting from Assad's palaces. •Meanwhile, Israel continued to strike military targets across Syria, but maintains that its ground operations are limited to a demilitarized buffer zone east of the occupied Golan Heights - and intended to prevent advanced weaponry from falling into rebel hands. However, several skeptical Syrian sources say Israeli ground troops have pushed about six miles (10 km) past the buffer zone to the town of Qatana. China •Taiwan reported that China is deploying a massive naval fleet to participate in war games around Taiwan in response to Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te first official trip abroad - which China viewed as a provocation since Lai visited U.S. territory (Hawaii and Guam) and met remotely with U.S. officials. China hasn't yet confirmed plans for military drills. Guyana •Guyana submitted a "final" written brief in its 125-year-old territorial dispute with Venezuela to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), which claims jurisdiction over the case. •The case is likely to drag on for years to come: Venezuela has until Aug. 8 to submit its reply to Guyana's latest brief, and the ICJ will set a date after that for oral arguments to begin. Venezuela •The UN's High Commissioner for Human Rights said his agency has been "able to resume partly our activities" in Venezuela after a hiatus of nearly ten months. The watchdog seems to be investigating the July election Pres. Maduro stole: last week it ordered Maduro's government to refrain from destroying vote tally sheets and other election evidence.