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5 direct mentions across 5 briefings, with 5 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
Guyana submitted a final written brief to the International Court of Justice in its territorial dispute with Venezuela. Venezuela had until August 8 to reply, with oral arguments to be scheduled afterward.
Unverified development · updated through
Guyana submitted a final written brief to the International Court of Justice in its territorial dispute with Venezuela. Venezuela had until August 8 to reply, with oral arguments to be scheduled afterward.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
International Court of Justice dossier
3 mapped developments across 2 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
The Hague
Nicaragua alleges that German military and financial assistance to Israel contributed to genocide in Gaza.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 11 Dec Gaza •Ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas are said to be gaining steam under pressure from Pres.-elect Trump to close a deal soon. [Last week, Trump threatened that there would be "ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East" if hostages weren't released before his inauguration on Jan. 20]. •However, there are no indications that either side has relented on the sticking point that stalled prior talks: Hamas doesn't want to release the rest of its hostages until Israel completely withdraws from Gaza, and Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu has vowed to stay and fight in Gaza until Hamas is evicted from the strip. •Qatar's Prime Minister Al Thani - who is a central mediator between Israel and Hamas - said most of the mechanics of a deal have been worked out, but noted that prospects for an agreement will boil down to whether either side is willing to make concessions to end the war. Syria •Much of deposed Pres. Assad's cabinet stayed on when Assad and his family fled to Moscow, and rebel leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani (who has now rebranded himself "Pres. Ahmed al Shara" on Telegram) met Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi Jalali yesterday to begin transition planning. They jointly appointed Mohammed al-Bashir to form a new transition government. •Al-Golani and Jalili are trying to project an air of normalcy and ensure continuity of government operations, but a UN official said Syria's public sector had come to a "complete and abrupt halt." Many offices remain closed, but overall Syria seems mostly orderly: the only looting taking place is some vengeful trophy hunting from Assad's palaces. •Meanwhile, Israel continued to strike military targets across Syria, but maintains that its ground operations are limited to a demilitarized buffer zone east of the occupied Golan Heights - and intended to prevent advanced weaponry from falling into rebel hands. However, several skeptical Syrian sources say Israeli ground troops have pushed about six miles (10 km) past the buffer zone to the town of Qatana. China •Taiwan reported that China is deploying a massive naval fleet to participate in war games around Taiwan in response to Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te first official trip abroad - which China viewed as a provocation since Lai visited U.S. territory (Hawaii and Guam) and met remotely with U.S. officials. China hasn't yet confirmed plans for military drills. Guyana •Guyana submitted a "final" written brief in its 125-year-old territorial dispute with Venezuela to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), which claims jurisdiction over the case. •The case is likely to drag on for years to come: Venezuela has until Aug. 8 to submit its reply to Guyana's latest brief, and the ICJ will set a date after that for oral arguments to begin. Venezuela •The UN's High Commissioner for Human Rights said his agency has been "able to resume partly our activities" in Venezuela after a hiatus of nearly ten months. The watchdog seems to be investigating the July election Pres. Maduro stole: last week it ordered Maduro's government to refrain from destroying vote tally sheets and other election evidence.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 20 July Russia •A Russian court sentenced WSJ journalist Evan Gershkovich to 16 years in prison on bogus espionage charges. •Gershkovich probably won't serve all 16 years: Pres. Putin has suggested he could be traded for a high-value Russian prisoner in a swap, but first he had to be sentenced (Russia generally doesn't swap prisoners until after their sentencing). China •China's Third Plenum ended without any meaningful economic policy announcements, disappointing analysts who'd hoped for bolder action to kickstart sluggish domestic growth. •Separately, former president Trump claimed Taiwan "stole" the American semiconductor industry and "should pay" for the U.S. guaranteeing its security. Shares in TSMC - Taiwan's (and the world's) largest chipmaker - slipped 2.4% on concerns that the U.S. might not come to Taiwan's defense if China invades while Trump is president. Venezuela •Venezuela's opposition leader, María Corina Machado - who was blocked from running against Pres. Maduro on July 28 - accused Maduro's goons of staging "a deliberate provocation" to incite her security chief, Milciades Ávila, to come to her physical defense. •Ávila did come to her defense, and he was promptly arrested for it. This is only the latest example of Maduro's security forces intimidating the opposition ahead of the election. •It's not as though Maduro even needs to bully the opposition: he's also electioneering in other ways, including by designing the ballot to show his own name and photo 13 times - under multiple "parties" - before it shows any of the opposition candidates running against him. •Banned from running herself, Machado is supporting the only serious opposition candidate, Edmundo González, who is currently leading several polls - though Maduro certainly won't let him win the real election. Gaza •Israel's far-right national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, paid a provocative visit to the contested holy site of Al Aqsa / Temple Mount in Jerusalem, telling video cameras that he went to pray for the return of Hamas hostages - "but without a reckless deal, without surrendering." •Jordan condemned the visit as "a provocative step" and the White House complained about it as "counterproductive to peace and security in the West Bank" without mentioning Ben-Gvir by name. •Meanwhile, the International Court of Justice ruled that Israel's occupation of the West Bank and East Jerusalem violated international law. Its opinion is nonbinding but influences the media and public perspectives. Terrorism •The Pentagon warned that claimed attacks by Islamic State (IS) are on track to more than double this year vs. last year. •IS has claimed 153 attacks in the first half of 2024 - and in just Syria and Iraq - compared to 121 attacks it claimed in all of 2023 in those two countries. •IS's affiliates have also stepped up their attacks in other regions like Afghanistan (IS-Khorasan) and the Sahel (IS West African Province). •An analyst attributed this year's rise in claimed IS attacks to increasing frustration with the government in Syria and Iraq - which is driving IS's ability to recruit new jihadists there - as well as competition from Iran-linked groups for U.S. counterterrorism priority - which is diverting resources away from fighting IS globally. Minerals •Anglo American said its diamond mining division, De Beers, would cut production amidst falling sales plamed in part on declining demand for diamonds in China.
Open source reportOff Leash update 1 May Russia •Finland's national airline, Finnair, reported that some of its recent flights were interrupted because of radar jams hear the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. •Russia seems to be responsible for the jams, but - as The Economist explains - its interference is probably more defensive than nefarious: Kaliningrad is heavily militarized, and the jams are probably designed to scramble Ukrainian attack drones targeting Russian military sites there. Gaza •SecState Blinken will meet PM Netanyahu and other top Israeli officials today, and is expected to press them to speed up aid shipments to Gaza. •Blinken and other diplomats have been encouraging Israel to stall its ground invasion of Rafah to improve odds for a ceasefire deal, but Netanyahu reaffirmed that the Rafah operation will go ahead "with or without" a deal. •Separately, the UN's International Court of Justice rejected Nicaragua's case against Germany for shipping weapons to Israel. China •China's latest and most advanced aircraft carrier, the Fujian, left the Jiangnan Shipyard for its first sea trials. Following the trials, the 80,000-ton Fujian will become the third carrier in China's fleet, after the 66,000-ton Shandong and the 60,000-ton Liaoning. Haiti •Haiti's new transitional council selected little-known former sports minister Fritz Bélizaire to be the country's new interim prime minister as it tries to root out gangs and establish a stable government. •Bélizaire replaced Michel Patrick Boisvert, who became interim PM only last week when the council formally took over from ousted (and unelected) PM Henry. •Bélizaire may not last long either: he only won the support of four of the council's nine members, and the other five indicated they didn't know him well enough to appoint him. DRC •UN peacekeepers ended operations in South Kivu for good this week, leaving MONUSCO active in only North Kivu and Ituri provinces - which are currently facing worse violence than South Kivu. By the end of the year, the UN's longest and costliest peacekeeping mission will fully wind down and exit DRC. Sahel •Mali said its forces - along with Tuareg fighters - killed Islamic State commander Abu Huzeifa (aka Higgo), who planned the 2017 attack that killed four U.S. troops in Tongo Tongo, Niger. •The operation took place in Liptako, which is where the porous borders of three junta-run countries - Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger - meet. •Its success is a strategic win for the three juntas, who recently banded together (with Russian support) to form the anti-extremist Alliance of Sahel States after they were evicted from the regional ECOWAS bloc following their coups. Sudan •Amidst the looming spectre of a second genocide in Darfur, the U.S. asked the UAE and other allies to stop arming the Rapid Support Forces. (The UAE insists it "is not supplying any arms or ammunition to any faction engaged in the ongoing conflict in Sudan," but evidence suggests it actually is.) Yemen •Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels claimed a drone strike on a container ship in the Red Sea on Friday, and yesterday authorities confirmed their claim. •The ship they struck was the Portuguese-flagged MSC Orion, and this was their longest-range confirmed strike yet: it occurred around 375 miles (600 km) off the coast of Yemen. •The Orion sustained only minor damage and continued its voyage. Afghanistan •Islamic State (IS) claimed Monday's attack at a Shia mosque in Herat that killed six, including the imam. IS is the main instigator of anti-Shia attacks in Afghanistan, so its claim wasn't a surprise. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash April 30 Gaza •Ceasefire talks between Hamas and Israel may resume in Cairo shortly - if Hamas agrees to send negotiators. •Israeli officials confirmed that they've made concessions in the interest of closing a ceasefire deal: they're now open to a ceasefire in exchange for the release of 20 to 33 hostages - down from the previous demand of 40 hostages. •Hamas had trouble locating 40 hostages fitting the previous offer's criteria for release (elderly, ill, or female) but should have an easier time finding 20 to 33 hostages to free. And it's in Hamas's interest to close a deal before Israeli ground troops enter Rafah, so we may see some progress towards a deal this week. •It sounds like the biggest negotiating gap now is how long a ceasefire would last: Hamas prefers a longer one that lets it stay in power, while Israel wants a shorter-term deal so it can secure the release of hostages but eventually return to routing Hamas's leadership. •Separately, the International Court of Justice will issue a provisional ruling today in Nicaragua's flimsy case against Germany for aiding genocide in Gaza by sending weapons to Israel. A finding against Germany could make other countries think twice before sending weapons to Israel. Middle East •The EU's top diplomat said that several EU nations - including Spain, Ireland, Belgium, Slovenia, and Malta - plan to recognize Palestinian statehood within the next month. Israel criticized the idea and said it offered Palestinian leaders a "prize for terrorism." •Separately, the NYT printed an excellent piece on the delicate tightrope Arab leaders in Egypt, Morocco, Jordan, Kuwait, etc. are walking between sympathizing with fellow Muslims in Gaza and suppressing public demonstrations supporting Gaza, which could churn up anger against their strict regimes. Sudan •Sudan's Rapid Support Forces are eyeing an assault on El Fasher, which is the last major city in Darfur still controlled by the government. •The fight for El Fasher would be a bloody one, with echoes of the genocide that began there around 20 years ago and killed up to 300,000 people. Iraq •A motorcycle assassin shot dead one of Iraq's most famous TikTok personalities - a woman stage-named Um Fahad - on Friday. •It's not clear who ordered Um Fahad's killing or why she was targeted, but her flamboyant posts made her conservative enemies - as well as 460,000 followers. •She was the third young Iraqi social media personality killed in the past year. Iran •The BBC published a leaked document from Iran's security forces indicating that its guards were responsible for the 2022 death of 16-year-old protester Nika Shakarami - and that they sexually assaulted her before killing her and dumping her body to be found nine days later. The government initially claimed she died by suicide. •The BBC investigated carefully (its article states: "There are numerous fake Iranian official documents in circulation, so the BBC spent months checking every detail with multiple sources"), and these new revelations seem legit. Afghanistan •A gunman attacked a Shia mosque in Herat, western Afghanistan, killing six civilians. No group has claimed the attack yet, but Islamic State is known to target Shias in the region. Other News •The Washington Post published the clearest evidence yet linking India's spy agency, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), to the attempted assassination of a vocal critic of PM Modi on U.S. soil in 2023, and even identified the RAW official leading the operation by name. •India rejected the report, calling its claims "unwarranted, unsubstantiated imputations."
Open source reportOff Leash update 8 April Yesterday marked the 30-year anniversary of the start of Rwanda's 100-day genocide. President Kagame - who is running for re-election in July - commemorated the occasion with a ceremony celebrating the country's progress under his leadership since then. A total solar eclipse will cross the U.S. from Texas to Maine this afternoon. A map here shows the total eclipse path and partial eclipse gradients. Pres. Biden is hosting a trilateral summit with Japan's PM Kashido and Pres. Marcos Jr. of the Philippines Wednesday. They're expected to discuss maritime cooperation to counter China's influence in the South China Sea. South Korea votes in parliamentary elections on Wednesday. Pres. Yoon isn't up for election, but his party's performance in the vote will be a sign of his own popularity. Commodity Prices Aluminum: $2,451/ton Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $13,450/ton Cobalt: $28,550/ton Copper: $9,330/ton Gold: $2,339/toz Lead: $2,124/ton Natural Gas (Nymex): $1.79/MMbtu WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $86.31/barrel Zinc: $2,639/ton Gaza Israel said it withdrew a division of ground troops from Khan Younis and southern Gaza "to recuperate and prepare for future operations," and Palestinians returned to the rubbled city. Some analysts suggested that the "future operations" part could portend a ground invasion of Rafah, which Israel has been planning for months. Meanwhile, Israel carried out another airstrike in southern Lebanon, killing the commander of Hezbollah's Radwan Brigade, which Israel blames for firing rockets into its northern villages. Separately, the International Court of Justice began hearing Nicaragua's case against Germany over German military and financial aid for Israel. Nicaragua argues that Germany's support has "contributed to the commission of genocide" in Gaza. Finally, Egypt's Al Qahera reported cautious optimism that Israel and Hamas had agreed on basic points in their ongoing ceasefire talks in Cairo. However, Hamas corrected that report by saying talks were still stalled. Iran U.S. officials expect Iran to launch a "significant" retaliatory attack in revenge for Israel's strike that killed seven Iranian military officers in Damascus. Some suggested Iran could strike either within Israel or against U.S. or Israeli facilities (like embassies) in other countries. To me, a direct strike on Israel seems unlikely, since it would be a disproportionate and dangerous escalation that Israel would force Israel to respond similarly. It also seems unlikely that Iran would pull the U.S. into the fray with an attack on a U.S. facility. Pres. Raisi's chief of staff even wrote to Washington warning the U.S. to "step aside" and avoid involvement so it doesn't "get dragged into Netanyahu's trap." It's more likely that Iran will find a way to retaliate with a limited and targeted operation against a specific Israeli target that placates its hardliners who are demanding action but avoids angering Israel into re-retaliating. Ukraine The International Atomic Energy Agency said Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station - which has been under Russian control since Feb. 2022 - sustained damage yesterday from drone attacks that damaged its reactor and killed one person. Russia accused Ukraine of "nuclear terrorism," but Ukraine insists it wasn't involved and instead suggested Russia was responsible - though it's unclear why Russia would strike a nuclear plant it controls. Ecuador stormed the Mexican Embassy in Quito to arrest Jorge Glas, a former Ecuadorian vice president who took refuge in the compound in December to avoid a prison sentence for corruption. Mexico was offended by the affront and promptly cut diplomatic ties with Ecuador. NYT analysts pointed out that Ecuadorian president Daniel Noboa likely calculated that arresting Glas would boost his sagging approval ratings ahead of an election next year.
Open source report