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8 direct mentions across 8 briefings, with 8 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
Trump intended to speak with President Lai Ching-te before deciding on arms sales to Taiwan; Beijing criticized the prospective engagement. Its suggestion that Trump may have raised the matter with Xi Jinping is explicitly speculative.
Unverified development · updated through
Trump intended to speak with President Lai Ching-te before deciding on arms sales to Taiwan; Beijing criticized the prospective engagement. Its suggestion that Trump may have raised the matter with Xi Jinping is explicitly speculative.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Lai Ching-te dossier
3 mapped developments across 3 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Taiwan Strait
Beijing has increased pressure on Taiwan in reaction to the election of President Lai Ching-te, whom the Chinese Communist Party considers supportive of Taiwanese independence.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 22 May 2026 IRAN •Pres. Trump said he delayed a "very major attack" against Iran that was planned for Tuesday to allow ongoing "serious negotiations" to play out, after the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE asked him for more time to try to secure a deal that addresses Iran's nuclear program. •It's not clear how serious the ongoing negotiations truly are. Most media reports suggest that Iran's latest counterproposal was essentially identical to the previous one, which Trump rejected as "garbage" after reading the first page. Iranian state media, though, said the current proposal had "narrowed the gaps." •SecState Rubio expressed very cautious optimism about "slight progress" towards a ceasefire deal with Iran, but reports that Iran and Oman are in talks about creating a tolling system for the Strait of Hormuz suggest otherwise. Rubio drew a red line with a warning that a tolling system "would make a diplomatic deal unfeasible." ISRAEL •A new Washington Post report found that the U.S. launched more interceptors (300) defending Israel against incoming attacks than Israel launched in its own defense (190). •The U.S. focused its efforts on intercepting high-altitude ballistic missiles coming from Iran, consuming over 200 Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors - or around half its pre-war THAAD arsenal - plus around 100 Standard Missile-3 and Standard Missile-6 interceptors. •Meanwhile, Israel focused on intercepting lower-altitude incoming fire from Iranian proxies - the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon - using nearly 100 Arrow 3 missiles and around 90 David Sling interceptors. •Kelly Greico - an analyst at the Stimson Center - pointed out that interceptors used for Israel's defense reduce the arsenal available for defending against other adversaries: "That bill risks coming due in theaters that have nothing to do with Iran." EBOLA •The World Health Organization (WHO) has now documented 750 suspected cases of Ebola with 177 suspected Ebola deaths in the latest outbreak, which the WHO only confirmed last weekend and has since upgraded to a "very high" risk of spread within DRC. •Public health experts believe the new Ebola outbreak confirmed in DRC and Uganda over the weekend has been raging for weeks, and will be much harder to contain because of the delay in reporting and confirming it. •This outbreak originated in DRC's insurgency-ridden Ituri province, which has been run by a military government under a "state of siege" since 2021. Public services - including health - often take a backseat to security matters, which could explain why health officials didn't sound the alarm when they first started to see patients with possible Ebola symptoms. •Testing shortfalls also delayed Ituri's outbreak response. The region's Ebola test kits only test for the most common Ebola species, Zaire, and returned negative results. It was only when regional health officials sent tissue samples to Kinshasa - apparently weeks after the first symptoms appeared - that the Bundibugyo species of Ebola was identified. CHINA •Pres. Trump told reporters he planned to speak with Taiwan's Pres. Lai Ching-te before deciding to sell arms to Taiwan. It would be the first time since 1979 that a sitting U.S. president or president-elect has spoken with the leader of Taiwan - though there have been official communications at less senior levels since then. •Beijing blamed Taiwan for the "petty action" of enticing Trump to break from precedent and engage at the highest level, but there's a good chance that Trump floated the idea with Xi Jinping when they met last week: Trump first mentioned he might reach out to Lai immediately upon returning from his summit with Xi.
Open source reportOff Leash update 6 May UKRAINE •Ukraine and Russia both agreed to a ceasefire, but - in an indication of how much they mistrust each other - they agreed to separate ceasefires. •Ukraine's open-ended ceasefire started late yesterday and will last as long as Russia reciprocates, and Russia's - which was announced along with a threat of a "massive missile strike" if Ukraine doesn't comply - will start Friday. •Kyiv has already accused Russia of violating its ceasefire on the front lines, but hasn't torn up the truce yet. IRAN •Pres. Trump announced he was pausing "Project Freedom" - his plan to escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz - after just one day and three escorted transits, citing "great progress" that the U.S. and Iran are making towards a deal. •More likely, Project Freedom was making less progress than Trump had hoped, and Pakistani mediators convinced him it was counterproductive. Instead of freeing up shipping traffic in the Strait, the challenge of military escorts incited Iranian retaliation via small boat attacks. Only two or three escorted boats transited the Strait on Monday, and around 1,600 more remain trapped to the west. •Iran also seemed eager to de-escalate in a way that allows it to save face and claim victory. Its Speaker of Parliament claimed that a "new equation of the Strait of Hormuz is being stabilized." CHINA •Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, visited Beijing for talks with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi. It was their first in-person meeting - and Araghchi's first visit to China - since the war began, but Araghchi and Wang have spoken by phone three times since Feb. 28. •That's probably more than Araghchi has spoken with officials from any other country except those directly mediating between the U.S. and Iran. While it wasn't directly involved in mediating the current temporary ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, Beijing reportedly helped nudge Tehran to accept it. •The timing of Araghchi's visit - just one week before Pres. Xi hosts Pres. Trump - suggests Iran may hope Xi can again intercede as an unofficial mediator. TAIWAN •Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te defied Beijing's bullying and paid a visit to Taiwan's sole remaining ally in Africa, Eswatini (fka Swaziland). •Beijing had sought to block Lai's trip by ordering other African countries to deny his aircraft use of their airspace, but Lai bypassed the prohibition by flying in on an Eswatini government aircraft instead of his own. Beijing likened the clever workaround to "a rat scurrying across the street." ROMANIA •Romania's pro-European coalition government fell in an overwhelming no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan, who came to power less than a year ago as part of a motley coalition that has since broken down over Bolojan's proposed austerity measures. •President Nicusor Dan appealed for calm and promised a new, pro-Western government "within a reasonable time," while ruling out early elections. SYRIA •Syria said its security forces foiled a major terrorist attack that Lebanese Hezbollah militants were planning to carry out in coordinated operations targeting at least five different Syrian governates. •Hezbollah supported the deposed Assad regime's losing side in Syria's civil war, and has continued to agitate against the new government and its ex-rebel leaders in revenge for their efforts to cut off the smuggling routes Iran uses to supply its Lebanese proxy.
Open source reportOff Leash update 22 April IRAN •Pres. Trump announced an extension to the temporary ceasefire with Iran that was set to expire last night. The truce will now remain in effect until Iran's "proposal is submitted, and discussions are concluded, one way or the other." •Trump said the U.S. military blockade of Iranian ports will remain in place, which presents a challenge to forward progress on a lasting peace deal. Iran considers the U.S. blockade a violation of the temporary ceasefire and refused to submit its proposal or engage in a second round of discussions over the matter. •The latest U.S. proposal that the U.S. wants Iran to respond to reportedly contains the same sticking points on nuclear issues as before, making it unlikely that Iran will suddenly agree to accept the U.S. position. JAPAN •Japan relaxed post-World War II restrictions on exporting lethal weapons in a bid to support allies embroiled in wars in the Middle East and Ukraine. Exports will still be restricted to 17 countries with which Japan has defense agreements. •Growing numbers of Japanese - especially the young - oppose the move to erode their country's postwar pacifism. Tens of thousands turned out to protest in front of the Diet yesterday, shouting chants like "stop sucking up to America" and holding signs with anti-war slogans like "Cats, not bombs." CHINA •Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te cancelled a planned trip to Eswatini (fka Swaziland) this week after China pressured three other African countries - the Seychelles, Mauritius, and Madagascar - revoked overflight permission for his presidential aircraft. •Lai blamed China, saying that "the actual reason [for the revocation of flight permits] was intense pressure exerted by Chinese authorities, including economic coercion." Taiwanese officials say Beijing threatened to impose economic sanctions on and cancel much-needed debt relief for the Seychelles, Mauritius, and Madagascar unless they revoked the flight permits. •Eswatini is one of only 12 countries that still recognize Taiwan's independence from China, and the only African country still doing so. Many other nations - like the three that cancelled Lai's flight permits - have been enticed by Belt and Road perks or coerced by economic threats into siding with Beijing. UKRAINE •Ukraine's Pres. Zelensky said repairs to the Druzhba pipeline have been completed and the pipeline can resume carrying Russian oil to Europe. •Zelensky hopes that reopening the pipeline can unlock a €90 billion ($106 billion) European Union (EU) loan to Ukraine that Hungary and Slovakia had been blocking over pipeline repair delays. LEBANON •Israel accused Hezbollah of violating the temporary ceasefire that Israel and Lebanon agreed to by firing rockets at Israeli positions in south Lebanon. •Hezbollah wasn't a party to the 10-day truce but until this incident had mostly respected Lebanon's pleas to uphold it.
Open source reportPresident Lai Ching-te was reported to have accused China of intensifying influence and manipulation efforts intended to absorb Taiwan. Lai cited charges against 64 spies in 2024 and promised stronger scrutiny of residency applications from Chinese citizens.
Open source reportOff Leash update 11 Dec Gaza •Ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas are said to be gaining steam under pressure from Pres.-elect Trump to close a deal soon. [Last week, Trump threatened that there would be "ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East" if hostages weren't released before his inauguration on Jan. 20]. •However, there are no indications that either side has relented on the sticking point that stalled prior talks: Hamas doesn't want to release the rest of its hostages until Israel completely withdraws from Gaza, and Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu has vowed to stay and fight in Gaza until Hamas is evicted from the strip. •Qatar's Prime Minister Al Thani - who is a central mediator between Israel and Hamas - said most of the mechanics of a deal have been worked out, but noted that prospects for an agreement will boil down to whether either side is willing to make concessions to end the war. Syria •Much of deposed Pres. Assad's cabinet stayed on when Assad and his family fled to Moscow, and rebel leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani (who has now rebranded himself "Pres. Ahmed al Shara" on Telegram) met Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi Jalali yesterday to begin transition planning. They jointly appointed Mohammed al-Bashir to form a new transition government. •Al-Golani and Jalili are trying to project an air of normalcy and ensure continuity of government operations, but a UN official said Syria's public sector had come to a "complete and abrupt halt." Many offices remain closed, but overall Syria seems mostly orderly: the only looting taking place is some vengeful trophy hunting from Assad's palaces. •Meanwhile, Israel continued to strike military targets across Syria, but maintains that its ground operations are limited to a demilitarized buffer zone east of the occupied Golan Heights - and intended to prevent advanced weaponry from falling into rebel hands. However, several skeptical Syrian sources say Israeli ground troops have pushed about six miles (10 km) past the buffer zone to the town of Qatana. China •Taiwan reported that China is deploying a massive naval fleet to participate in war games around Taiwan in response to Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te first official trip abroad - which China viewed as a provocation since Lai visited U.S. territory (Hawaii and Guam) and met remotely with U.S. officials. China hasn't yet confirmed plans for military drills. Guyana •Guyana submitted a "final" written brief in its 125-year-old territorial dispute with Venezuela to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), which claims jurisdiction over the case. •The case is likely to drag on for years to come: Venezuela has until Aug. 8 to submit its reply to Guyana's latest brief, and the ICJ will set a date after that for oral arguments to begin. Venezuela •The UN's High Commissioner for Human Rights said his agency has been "able to resume partly our activities" in Venezuela after a hiatus of nearly ten months. The watchdog seems to be investigating the July election Pres. Maduro stole: last week it ordered Maduro's government to refrain from destroying vote tally sheets and other election evidence.
Open source reportOff Leash update 2 DEC Coming Up This Week •The UN Convention to Combat Desertification meets in Riyadh today through Dec. 13. •Pres. Biden is in Angola today through Wednesday for what will likely be his last presidential trip abroad. His visit will celebrate the Lobito Corridor - a $1 billion railway built with U.S. support to expand American access to Chinese-dominated critical minerals like Congolese cobalt. •Ghana goes to the polls on Saturday. Former president John Dramani Mahama is favored to win a fresh (non-consecutive) term. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,594/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $33,550/ton •Cobalt: $24,300/ton •Copper: $9,011/ton •Gold: $2,637/toz •Lead: $2,071/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.16/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $68.60/barrel •Zinc: $3,103/ton Syria •Syrian rebels continued to gain ground in Aleppo, capturing its airport and military academy. They now control an estimated half of the city and are encroaching on the outskirts of nearby Hama. •The attacks caught Syrian forces off-guard and they quickly pulled out of Aleppo. Syrian and Russian warplanes are retaliating with an assault on rebel positions in and around the opposition stronghold of Idlib. •Some analysts think Turkey's Pres. Erdogan incited the ongoing uprising to take advantage of an opportunity to gain ground against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) while Pres. Assad's backers are distracted abroad (Russia in Ukraine and Iran and its proxies by wars with Israel). •I wrote last week that one of the main rebel groups in the coalition fighting over Aleppo and Hama - Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) - is aligned with Al Qaeda, but that's inaccurate. Rather, one of HTS's precursors - Nusrah Front - was aligned with Al Qaeda, but severed ties over strategic disagreements in 2016 - one year before it merged with other anti-Assad groups to form HTS. •HTS retains Al Qaeda's Salafi-jihadist ideology, however, and several countries - including the U.S., EU, and Russia - designate HTS a terrorist group. (Turkey does, too, but still backs HTS's coalition partners when they fight the SDF and other Kurds). China •Taiwan's Pres. Lai Ching-te left Saturday for his first international trip as president. He'll visit three of the 12 countries that still officially recognize Taiwan: Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and Palau. •En route - at least geopolitically, though certainly not geographically - Lai will stop over in Hawaii to "make some visits" and "meet with old friends" - i.e., hold closed-door meetings with think tanks, pro-Taiwan expats, and perhaps even current U.S. officials. •It's become customary for Taiwanese presidents to jab at China by paying semi-official visits to the U.S., but Lai's visit to Hawaii isn't quite as provocative as his predecessor Tsai Ing-wen's visits to Los Angeles and New York. Nonetheless, it will irritate China, which analysts expect will retaliate with new military drills around Taiwan while Lai is away. Ukraine •In an interview with Sky News, Pres. Zelensky proposed an unlikely solution to end the war: he said Ukraine could agree to a truce if areas now under Ukrainian control were placed "under the NATO umbrella" with negotiations over areas now under Russian control to follow later. •That's not going to happen: Pres. Putin would reject the idea, and NATO isn't unanimously excited about welcoming any part of Ukraine under its umbrella. Mexico •The NYT profiled an unusual tactic Mexico's cartels are using to build their fentanyl empires: they're recruiting talented university chemistry students to add scientific know-how that improves synthetic drug production, Breaking Bad-style. One professor suspects some students are only enrolling in his chemistry classes to learn how to synthesize drugs - and not for the joy of studying chemistry. Sahel 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update. 15 October Iran •According to a Washington Post report, Israeli PM Netanyahu gave Pres. Biden his word that Israel would not strike Iranian nuclear facilities or oil assets in retaliation for Iran's ballistic missile barrage earlier this month. Per WaPo, Netanyahu said Israel's retaliation would instead focus on Iranian military targets. •Oil markets believe Netanyahu - oil prices dropped as fears of a supply disruption eased - but that doesn't mean Israel has truly ruled out targeting nuclear or oil assets. U.S. officials don't always take Netanyahu at his word - Bob Woodward's new book recounts Biden privately calling Netanyahu a "fucking liar" in the past - and Netanyahu's own office even walked back his commitment to avoid striking nuclear or oil targets. A new statement from Netanyahu's office said the PM will consider U.S. input but make final decisions in its national interest. Gaza •Israeli strikes targeted a Hamas command center stationed near the Al Aqsa Martyrs Hospital in Gaza. The resulting fire killed or injured dozens of Gazans who'd taken shelter at the hospital. •Hamas often hides its command centers amidst civilians in the hope that their presence will dissuade Israeli strikes. But according to a new NYT report, Israel has also been using human shields. The NYT says Israeli troops have "regularly forced captured Gazans to carry out life-threatening tasks" like scoping out Hamas tunnels or abandoned buildings for booby-traps. North Korea •North Korea accused South Korea of flying leaflet-dropping drones over Pyongyang for a third time this month, and lashed out in a symbolic response by dramatically demolishing unused roads that once connected the two neighbors. •Kim Jong Un and his sister, Kim Yo Jong, had threatened "immediate military action" in retaliation to the alleged drone incursions, but they're unlikely to instigate anything more provocative than blowing up some cracked asphalt: Pyongyang knows better than to goad a better-armed adversary into open conflict. China •Taiwan counted a record 153 Chinese warplanes participating in the one-day "Joint Sword-2024B" military drills that Beijing launched in reaction to a provocative speech by Taiwan's Pres. Lai Ching-te. •Taiwanese officials complained that "Any drills without prior warning will cause great disturbance to peace and stability in the entire region." Russia •A new report by the Ukraine-based Kyiv School of Economics Institute estimated that almost 70% of Russia's oil is being transported by its fleet of unregistered "shadow tankers." •According to the Kyiv institute, Russia uses its shadow fleet to evade sanctions and sell oil above the $60 per barrel price cap set for it, earning it $15-60 per barrel more. Multiplied by its estimated shadow fleet volumes of up to 120 million barrels per month, that's a lucrative workaround. •The Kyiv institute also warned that the shadow tankers are usually uninsured or underinsured, and have an average age of 18 years. Several have already run aground or collided with other ships. If one were to cause a major oil spill, it's unlikely Russia - which denies any official links to the shadow fleet - would pay for cleanup. Venezuela •Venezuela's sanctioned Attorney General, Tarek Saab, bizarrely accused Brazil's Pres. Lula and Chile's Pres. Boric of being CIA agents - because why else would they join the U.S. (and dozens of other countries) in questioning the legitimacy of Pres. Maduro's bogus claim to have won re-election? •Separately, opposition leader Maria Corina Machado made a moving audio appeal to Venezuelan soldiers to stop supporting a "regime that's on its way out" and join the opposition in forming a "new republic." •It's widely known that many Venezuelan soldiers - spanning all ranks and across all military branches - already quietly support the opposition and would defect as soon as they feel safe doing so. Appeals like Machado's may help turn the tide.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 27 June Bolivia •A senior Bolivian general, Juan José Zuñiga, staged a brief and bizarre coup attempt yesterday. •His team of soldiers drove a military vehicle through a palace door in an effort to oust democratically-elected President Luis Arce, but retreated less than three hours later - after it became clear that the rest of the military and police force remained loyal to Arce's command. •Just before he was arrested, Zuñiga claimed that Arce asked him to stage a coup: "The president told me, 'The situation is very screwed up, very critical. It is necessary to prepare something to raise my popularity.'" •There may be some truth to that: Arce is competing with his popular predecessor, Evo Morales (who was ousted in 2019 in what he called a "coup"), for their leftist party's 2025 nomination, and squashing a coup attempt helped him look like a patriotic defender of democracy. Arce was quick to call Bolivians out to the streets to cheer for him and "against this coup d’état." •The NYT pointed out that Bolivia has had 190 coups or revolutions in its 200 years of existence. China •Taiwan's government warned its citizens against unnecessary travel to mainland China, where authorities recently threatened to prosecute and execute "diehard" advocates for Taiwanese independence. [Beijing has been tightening its grip on Taiwan as a reaction to the election of new president Lai Ching Te, who the CCP considers to be pro-Taiwanese independence even though he hasn't explicitly advocated for it.] Kenya •Kenya's Pres. Ruto rejected the proposed tax bill that sparked a wave of protests in Nairobi: "Listening keenly to the people of Kenya who have said loudly that they want nothing to do with this finance bill, I concede, and therefore, I will not sign the 2024 finance bill, and it shall subsequently be withdrawn." •Kenya has a heavy debt burden, so it will need to find money to make repayments from something other than this rejected tax on basic goods. Afghanistan •Afghanistan's cricket team lost to South Africa in the semifinals of the T20 World Cup, but had a good run: the country is still celebrating the team's surprise upset over the reigning T20 champion, Australia. Iran •Two of the five conservative candidates approved to run in Iran's presidential election tomorrow have dropped out to consolidate the conservative vote. •Their withdrawal leaves three hardliners running against one moderate (by Iranian standards), heart surgeon Masoud Pezeshkian. •Of the hardliners, parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf and ex-nuclear negotiator Saaed Jalili are polling strongest. •Analysts suggest Pezeshkian has a chance of winning if Ghalibaf and Jalili both stay in the race and split the conservative vote. •Iran's presidency is a figurehead role: no matter who wins, the conservative clerics will still dictate policy. DRC •A suspected M23 mortar attack killed two South African peacekeepers - and wounded 20 others - near Goma. Other News •Police in the Maldives arrested Minister for the Environment, Climate Change, and Energy Fathimath Shamnaz Ali Saleem for allegedly vexing her boss, Pres. Mohamed Muizzu, with a "black magic" curse. •The witchcraft accusation seems bogus: if she were really a sorceress, she would presumably use her powers - and her post - to stop her country from sinking into the sea. •Lastly, a U.S. court sentenced former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández to 45 years in prison for collaborating with drug gangs to traffick hundreds of tons of cocaine into the U.S. while he was president.
Open source report