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54 direct mentions across 54 briefings, with 86 linked developments.
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Chinese and Filipino sailors struck one another with oars and batons, leaving one Filipino sailor with a head injury. Mutual accusations, diplomatic summonses and U.S. and Australian statements supporting the Philippines.
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Chinese and Filipino sailors struck one another with oars and batons, leaving one Filipino sailor with a head injury. Mutual accusations, diplomatic summonses and U.S. and Australian statements supporting the Philippines.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
China dossier
49 mapped developments across 19 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Canada
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau testified that China attempted to interfere in Canada’s two previous elections, but that the activity did not affect the results and probably did not favor one party over another.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 24 July 2026 SAUDI ARABIA •The U.S.-Saudi nuclear deal announced Wednesday may fall apart before its Congressional critics even have a chance to oppose it. Less than 24 hours after it was signed, Pres. Trump added a new condition requiring Saudi to join the Abraham Accords - and thus normalize relations with Israel - in exchange for U.S. permission and help building a civilian nuclear program. •Diplomatic recognition of Israel has been a non-starter for Saudi's Crown Prince MBS since Israel began its war in Gaza, although MBS was cautiously open to the idea pre-2022. If Trump doesn't walk back his new condition, MBS will certainly back out of this week's deal, which was over 20 years in the making. YEMEN •Yemen's Houthis seem to be selectively enforcing the blockade they announced on Saudi Arabian exports earlier this week. •They struck two Saudi tankers yesterday, but allowed two Chinese-owned tankers carrying Saudi oil to pass through Bab al Mandeb - though those were loaded at Saudi's Yanbu port before the Houthis announced their blockade. Several more Chinese tankers are now loading Saudi oil at Yanbu, and analysts are watching to see how the Houthis treat them. •On the one hand, China is the Houthis' second-greatest benefactor (after Iran) and supplies the Houthis with key military kit like drone components, so the Houthis will hesitate to bite the hand that feeds them. That's what happened in 2023-5, when the Houthis attacked U.S.- and Israel-linked vessels in solidarity with Hamas, but spared Chinese ships. But on the other hand, the Houthis are - as one analyst pointed out - "quite mercurial and there is no complete clarity on what the blockade means." IRAN •Pres. Trump antagonized Iran by vowing to use frozen Iranian funds - which Tehran has desperately sought to unfreeze to pay for post-war reconstruction - to pay for damage Iran's strikes in the Strait of Hormuz cause to ships and cargo. •Trump called it "the fair and equitable thing to do," while Iran's Foreign Minister said it sent an "incendiary precedent" and issued a rival threat: "Those who celebrate or profit from such funds should remember: once governments normalise confiscation, no one’s assets are safe. Ensuing chaos will not be pretty or peaceful." •Separately, Iraq's Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi delivered a new U.S. ceasefire proposal to Iran's leaders, who rejected it immediately. It was probably not a serious proposal, anyway: it's hard to imagine Pres. Trump would extend a real olive branch after bombing Iran nightly for nearly a fortnight and weighing whether to launch the "largest ever" U.S. military strike on Iran. •It was reportedly another temporary ceasefire that ignored the most prescient question of who keeps control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Open source reportOff Leash update 21 July 2026 NICARAGUA •Nicaragua's leftist president, Daniel Ortega, announced plans to officially abolish elections rather than bother to hold another sham poll - like the one he oversaw in 2021 - when elections are due next year. •Instead, Ortega will tighten his authoritarian grip on Nicaraguan politics and further consolidate power for himself and his co-president, Rosario Murillo - a poet whose main qualification to hold office is being married to Ortega. •The Trump administration has mostly turned a blind eye to Ortega's increasingly blatant power grabs, despite Ortega's leftist politics and friendliness with China. Abolishing elections could give the U.S. a reason to treat Nicaragua to the same sort of pressure campaigns it's mounting on Cuba and Venezuela. Once again proof that you can vote in socialism but have to shoot your way out. CHINA •Chinese and Filipino sailors fought a brief sea battle worthy of a Viking war painting near the disputed Second Thomas Shoal yesterday, striking each other with oars and batons and leaving one Filipino sailor with a head injury. •As usual, both sides claimed the other provoked the skirmish and summoned the other side's ambassador for a dressing down. •The timing is awkward this time, since the incident will certainly become a hot topic at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit that started today. China, the Philippines, the U.S., and Australia are all sending their top diplomats, and the U.S. and Australia have already issued statements supporting the Philippines' side and condemning China as the aggressor. YEMEN •Encouraged by Iran, Yemen's Houthi rebels announced a blockade on Saudi Arabian ships - or ships carrying Saudi exports - transiting through Bab al Mandeb. •The Houthis are inaccurately portraying their blockade as a meaningful one that will choke off Saudi's last remaining export route while Iran blocks Saudi exports through the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts suggest that depiction is intended for the Houthi's domestic audience, who don't know that Saudi can evade the blockade by exporting from its western ports north through the Suez Canal. UK •Andy Burnham - the UK's new prime minister, as of yesterday - promptly named his cabinet. •Burnham surprised analysts by choosing John Healey - who resigned as Sir Kier Starmer's defence minister last month after complaining about insufficient defence spending - as the new chancellor of the exchequer. Healey will now be responsible for tough spending choices like the defence cuts he railed against. INDIA •Youth-led protests rocked Delhi yesterday, and police responded forcefully, injuring at least 180 demonstrators. The movement - playfully dubbed the Cockroach Janta Party - demands education reform, including the resignation of India's education minister following exam scandals that happened on his watch. TRADE •Pres. Trump threatened 50% tariffs on symbolic Canadian imports like hockey equipment and down jackets, but gave Canada 30 days to right the perceived wrongs that sparked Trump's ire. In particular, Trump wants the eight of 10 Canadian provinces that banned imports of U.S.-made alcohol last year to repeal their bans. •Analysts suggest Trump's new tariff threat is a tactic to force Canada into making concessions early so it has less room to negotiate when U.S.-Canada-Mexico trade talks resume.
Open source reportOff Leash update 17 July 2026 UKRAINE •Ukraine's former defense minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, isn't taking his sacking quietly. Nor were the thousands of his supporters who turned out to protest his firing. •Fedorov spoke out against Ukraine's top general, Oleksandr Syrskyi, accusing the commander in chief of "blocking all of our initiatives" and complaining that "instead of figuring out how to defeat Russia asymmetrically...hefigured out how to split the country." •Fedorov and Syrskyi clashed over Federov's efforts to modernize the military, despite the success of innovations like drone technology that he introduced. Protesters are now calling for Syrskyi to be removed instead. IRAN •U.S. airstrikes targeted infrastructure in Iran - including an airport, a train station, and several bridges - and Iran hit back at U.S. military targets in Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and (for the first known time) Syria. •Iran said the Syrian strike on a U.S. special operations command center in al Tanf was in retaliation for U.S. strikes that killed Iranian soldiers in Iranshahr. There were no U.S. casualties; the U.S. withdrew troops from al Tanf in February (probably at Pres. al Sharaa's request: al Sharaa doesn't want to get involved in the U.S.-Iran war). CHINA •In a televised address, Pres. Trump accused China of stealing voter files on about 220 million Americans and using them to influence the 2020 election in Joe Biden's favor. China vehemently denied Trump's claim, saying it "has never and will never interfere in the presidential elections of the U.S." •Shortly after Trump's address, China's leader, Xi Jinping, struck a much more friendly tone at the AI conference he's hosting in Shanghai: "With AI advancing at a staggering speed, we must ensure its development is for positive, for good, and for humanity." VENEZUELA •A CIA analysis of almost 20 years of intelligence on Venezuelan elections concluded that Venezuelan officials had "some capability in manipulating electronic voting systems" to alter up to 1.5 million votes in the country's elections since 2012. •The report cautioned that there was no definitive evidence that the Maduro regime pulled off "large-scale electronic fraud" this way (Nicolas Maduro had other ways of rigging elections in his favor, like bullying the opposition out of challenging him in polls). It also clarified that there was no evidence that Maduro's regime had any ability to influence elections in other countries using Smartmatic machines.
Open source reportOff Leash update 15 July 2026 IRAN •On Pres. Trump's orders, the U.S. military opened a new round of hostilities with Iran focused on breaking Iran's chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. airstrikes targeted dozens of sites linked to Iran's coastal defenses and attack boats, and U.S. warships resumed a military blockade of Iran's ports. •Trump also revived his use of ultimatums to threaten Iran back to the negotiating table, warning that he would order the destruction of Iran's power plants and bridges if its leaders don't "get to the table and negotiate." •On the other hand, Trump walked back his announced plan to levy fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, saying that Gulf countries - who would've borne the brunt of a fee - have instead committed to investing in the U.S. •Oil suppliers seem to think the conflict will drag on. They're doubling down on efforts to develop alternative routes to market that bypass the Strait. Dubai-based port operator DP World, for one, announced plans to build a new port and container terminal on UAE's east coast, outside of the Strait. •These alternate routes could come into use fairly quickly. Goldman Sachs estimates that current and planned pipelines and export infrastructure will be able to carry over 45% of pre-war Gulf oil export volumes by the end of 2027, and over 60% by the end of 2028. UK •A new UK inquiry found Iran indirectly responsible for a spate of arson and vandalism attacks blamed on one of its proxies, the Islamic Movement of the Companions of the Right (ICMR), and declared Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) to be a national security threat. •Parliament will vote on whether to ban the ICMR and IRGC later this week. If MPs approve bans, it would raise the stakes for members of the ICMR doing Iran's bidding, since committing sabotage on behalf of a banned group is punishable by up to life imprisonment - as opposed to far more lenient sentences for those convicted of the same crimes without a link to a banned group. YEMEN •Yemen's Houthis readily heeded Saudi Arabia's call to arms and declared the "de-escalation phase" of their war over after four years of fragile peace. •Analysts worry about the renewed conflict in southern Arabia spilling over into a broader regional conflict, with the Houthis on Iran's side targeting Gulf countries from the south while Iran lashes out at them from the east. [That was probably Saudi Crown Prince MBS's concern as well when he asked Pres. Trump to condone the strikes that reignited war with the Houthis.] CHINA •New data showed that China's economy grew just 4.3% between Q2 2025 and Q2 2026. It was China's slowest GDP growth rate since 2022 and fell short of the government's target of 4.5-5.0%. The war in Iran and weak domestic demand and investment held growth back, while a rise in tech exports dampened the drag on growth.
Open source reportOff Leash update 6 July 2026 COMING UP THIS WEEK •The Philippine Senate began an impeachment trial for Vice President Sara Duterte, who stands accused of corruption and making public threats against President Bongbong Marcos after the once-allied running mates bitterly fell out. Duterte insists the charges are politically motivated. •Iran is in the middle of a six-day, two-country funeral for slain former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The events conclude on Thursday, when Khamenei will be buried in his northeastern hometown of Mashad. •Turkey will host a NATO summit tomorrow and Wednesday. Pres. Trump plans to attend, and will likely have some gripes to express: last week he complained that it was "ridiculous" for the U.S. to continue its "one-sided" relationship with NATO. •The Paris Court of Appeal will rule on French far-right leader Marine Le Pen's appeal to overturn her conviction for misusing European funds. If the court overturns her conviction and resulting ban on holding public office, then she'll be the National Rally (RN) party's candidate in next year's presidential poll. If the court upholds her conviction, Jordan Bardella will represent the RN. •The 139th Wimbledon Championships conclude with the men's final on Sunday. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,091/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $35,245/ton •Bitcoin: $62,747 •Cobalt: $/ton •Copper: $13,367/ton •Ethereum: $1,762 •Gold: $4,143/toz •Lead: $1,892/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.23/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $68.33/barrel •Zinc: $3,541/ton IRAN •Hundreds of thousands of Iranians turned out to mourn Iran's late Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in the first days of his funeral. •It's not that Khamenei was wildly popular - in fact, he was widely disliked by the end of his reign, as Iranians increasingly blamed him for their country's economic woes and resented the brutal crackdowns his repressive security services inflicted on those who dared to criticize. •Rather, the government engineered high turnout by declaring national holidays and bribing attendees with freebies. •Khamenei's son and successor, Mojtaba, was conspicuously absent as his three brothers prayed beside their father's coffin. Mojtaba hasn't been seen in public since the Feb. 28, 2026 strike that killed his father - and reportedly maimed him. CHINA •China tested a long-range, submarine-launched ballistic missile with a "mock warhead" today - its first such test in nearly two years. •Beijing insisted the launch was just part of "routine" training and "not directed against any specific country or target," but its timing suggests it was a reaction to Australia signing a new mutual defense treaty with Fiji just hours prior. •Australia's foreign minister chastised Beijing for the test, which she called "destabilizing to the region." UKRAINE •Presidents Trump and Zelensky will meet on the sidelines of this week's NATO summit to capitalize on new momentum towards a peace deal. •After the leaders spoke by phone over the weekend, Zelensky optimistically declared: "There is a real prospect to put an end to this war, and America's resolve is decisive." We shall see. VENEZUELA •Venezuela has now tallied 3,342 deaths from twin earthquakes on June 24. Thousands are still missing, and residents are seething at the government over its slow and flaccid response to the disaster. •According to a new NYT report, residents of shoddily-built public housing are also livid with the state for ignoring - and even suppressing - years of warnings that their homes would crumble in a tremor. Last month, many did just that.
Open source reportOff Leash update 25 June 2026 VENEZUELA •Two strong "doublet" earthquakes struck Venezuela yesterday, killing at least 32 and injuring more than 700. •USGS models suggest casualties will rise far higher and could well exceed 10,000 or more. The quake struck on a public holiday when many Venezuelans were at home, and many Venezuelan homes are shoddily built and prone to collapse. Even Caracas's main airport - which was not shoddily built - sustained such extensive damage that it was forced to close. •Interim President Delcy Rodriguez declared a state of emergency and called on medical workers to care for survivors. LEBANON •Israel said its forces have trapped dozens of Hezbollah militants inside an encircled tunnel complex under the Ali al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon. The militants are staying put inside: they're likely hoping that U.S. pressure will force Israel to stand down before they run out of food and water underground. •The NYT pointed out similarities to a standoff between Israeli forces and Hamas militants in Gaza last year, in which hundreds of Hamas fighters were trapped in tunnels under Israeli-controlled terrain as a ceasefire came into effect. Israel denied the militants' request for safe passage and demanded their unconditional surrender instead. Many surrendered or were killed. •Meanwhile, Israel and Lebanon held a fifth round of U.S.-mediated ambassador-level talks in Washington, DC. They reportedly discussed a U.S.-backed "pilot" in which Israel would cede some of the southern Lebanese territory it occupied during its war with Hezbollah to pre-vetted Lebanese army units to control. •The U.S. is backing the idea because it would help satisfy a condition of the U.S.-Iran MoU requiring Israel to withdraw from Lebanon. [However, the plan would let Israel keep a military presence in a border buffer zone, and Iran might consider that a violation of its conditions.] CHINA •China's newest and largest aircraft carrier, the Fujian, sailed through the Taiwan Strait on Tuesday as a warning to the self-governing island, which had just launched a five-day exercise to practice defense against a Chinese invasion. •The provocative transit drew rebuke not only from Taiwan, but also from France, Germany, and the UK, who united to issue a rare joint statement condemning Chinese activity around Taiwan. [The statement was referring to Chinese activity around Taiwan in general and didn't specifically mention the Fujian's transit the day before.] •Separately, LineShine, a Chinese supercomputer, was anointed the world's most powerful supercomputer in the biannual TOP500 ranking, displacing HP's El Capitan. LineShine also had the greatest power consumption of the 500 supercomputers in the ranking.
Open source reportOff Leash update 23 June 2026 IRAN •Pres. Trump declared the Strait of Hormuz "totally open" and asserted that "we took in more oil yesterday than has ever gone through the strait." Meanwhile, Iran says the Strait is closed and will remain closed until certain conditions are met (more on that below). •The reality appears to be somewhere between these extreme claims: NBC's tracker (https://t.co/NcGMsYkIeh) reported that 15 tankers transited the Strait yesterday. That's far down from the pre-war average of around 100, but a notable increase over the slow drip of tanker traffic since February. •Iran's Tasnim news agency laid out Iran's conditions for reopening the Strait. Iran wants $12 billion in frozen assets released, Israel to fully withdraw from Lebanon, and waivers issued for its oil sanctions. •The U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has already acted on one of those demands. It waived some sanctions on Iran's oil sector for 60 days. •Many other sanctions on Iran remain in place. Pres. Trump can rescind some by executive order, but others will be harder to unwind within the 60 day deadline for lifting all sanctions on Iran. OFAC will take years to delist the 1,000 Iranian entities and individuals it designated for sanctions, and Congress will need to pass amendments to lift the legally-mandated sanctions on Iran and its proxies enacted over the past 40+ years. UK •Andy Burnham is emerging as the clear favorite to replace Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, who became the sixth British Prime Minister to resign in 10 years. •Barnham is bolder and more popular than Starmer, but that doesn't guarantee he'll fare much better than his ousted predecessor. CNN explained one factor driving Western voters to churn through politicians: "[L]eaders tap voter anger to get elected and promise to restore prosperity. But once in power, they often find it impossible to fulfill their promises." CHINA •China installed a new floating platform at Scarborough Shoal, raising concerns that it's planning to build more permanent structures around the reef, which China effectively controls but which lies within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone. •The apparent provocation seemed to achieve the desired effect with Philippine Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro, who said his government's "level of concern" about China's intensifying activity in the area "is significantly higher" now. •Separately, China imposed bans on selling certain rare earth metals to 10 U.S. companies leading state initiatives to revive domestic rare earth magnet production. •The blacklisted companies occupy a part of the supply chain that's highly vulnerable to coercions like this: they rely heavily on the Chinese raw materials now being cut off. Indeed, all global magnet manufacturers do, since China supplies 90% of the world's light rare earths and 98% of its heavy rare earths. SOUTH SUDAN •South Sudan announced a date of December 22 for its long-delayed first-ever election - assuming Pres. Kiir won't find another excuse to postpone it again. •Kiir's election chief already cast doubt on plans for a December 22 poll in the very same speech in which he announced the date: he added that his office won't be able to organize an election until thorny legal issues and funding gaps are resolved. •Ongoing conflict between Kiir and his estranged First Vice President, Riek Machar, also threatens to disrupt the vote and potentially reignite the civil war they fought from 2013 to 2018. After the election announcement, Machar's SPLM-IO quickly issued an ominous warning: "Anyone coming to register voters and campaign in territories controlled by the mighty SPLM-IO, you will be a prisoner of war." GUINEA •Guinea's junta leader, Mamady Doumbouya, announced a ban on unrefined gold exports that will require all gold to be processed domestically, effective immediately. •The move was probably premature: Guinea is building a massive new refinery that will be able to process its entire annual production volume of gold, but it's not done yet. Smaller, low-tech refiners can't handle Guinea's full production rate of around 90 tons per year.
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 June 2026 IRAN AND ISRAEL •The U.S. and Iran exchanged another round of strikes, but - as in other recent flare-ups - both sides exercised a modicum of restraint and justified their attacks as exact retaliation for specific incidents in an effort to uphold the broader ceasefire. •First, a U.S. AH-64 Apache helicopter went down near the Strait of Hormuz. Both pilots were rescued, but Pres. Trump blamed Iran for downing the gunship and ordered strikes against air defense and radar sites in southern Iran in retaliation. •Then Iran re-retaliated with drone attacks on U.S. military sites in the region, including U.S. Navy assets in Bahrain and a U.S. base in Jordan. •Iran accused the U.S. of "undermining" the fragile ceasefire, but neither side seems eager to abandon the truce or diplomatic negotiations, which Trump said Monday were "two or three days" away from reaching an agreement. •So the fragile detente holds, although - as The Economist noted - "the more the ceasefire is tested, the more likely it is to collapse entirely." UKRAINE •The European Union (EU) proposed a number of new measures to penalize Russia for its war in Ukraine. One idea would bar Russian soldiers and veterans who served in Ukraine from ever entering the EU; another would maintain the low $44 per barrel cap on Russian oil through 2027. This is the EU's 21st package of sanctions on Russia since the war began. PAKISTAN •Pakistan carried out another round of cross-border airstrikes inside Afghanistan that Islamabad claimed killed at least 26 Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan militants in three Afghan provinces. Afghanistan said the strikes killed at least 13 civilians, including 11 children. •Despite flare-ups like this, the neighboring countries are still technically observing a tenuous ceasefire that China helped mediate in March. NORTH KOREA •China's Xi Jinping concluded two days of meetings with Kim Jong Un in North Korea. State media stuck to their orders and celebrated vague pleasantries without divulging any real insight into what Xi and Kim discussed. •Analysts instead honed in on what was omitted from state media reports: Xi said nothing about North Korea's nuclear program - even though Pres. Trump claimed after his meeting with Xi last month that the two had agreed to work towards denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula. •One analyst suggested that Xi's avoidance of the nuclear topic with Kim suggests that Beijing has made "a very significant policy change to tacitly accept the reality of a nuclear North Korea" for the sake of maintaining strong bilateral relations with Pyongyang. EUROPE •Germany pulled out of the Future Combat Air System, a planned project to build a European fighter jet with France and Spain. •The project had been on life support after two French aviation majors - Dassault and Airbus - publicly disagreed over how to manage it, and Berlin's departure will probably be the long-anticipated death knell for the program, since France and Spain probably don't have the funding (or political will) to continue without Germany's support.
Open source reportOff Leash update 3 June 2026 IRAN •The U.S. struck Iran's Qeshm Island in retaliation for Iranian fire that downed an American MQ-1 Reaper drone, and Iran fired drones and missiles at Kuwait and Bahrain. •Kuwait said several drone strikes hit its airport, injuring at least 63 people and damaging the main terminal building, and these were Iran's first strikes on Bahrain since the temporary U.S.-Iran ceasefire went into effect almost two months ago. •Despite the exchanges of fire, Pres. Trump says peace talks are still "going on." RUSSIA •Ukraine launched over 350 drones into Russia to menace several major cities, including Moscow, Novgorod, and St. Petersburg - where an economic forum dubbed "Putin's Davos" was underway. •Russia said it intercepted the vast majority of the incoming drones, but it still reported several injuries and extensive damage to infrastructure. GUINEA •Guinea's massive Simandou mine almost doubled its iron ore exports in May compared to April, exporting 2.2 million tons through Morebaya port in May against 1.3 million tons in April. •The project - which sent its first ore to China just six months ago - has been ramping up quickly: April's total exports were more than double the 0.6 million tons shipped in the first three months of the year. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE •Pres. Trump signed an executive order asking technology companies to voluntarily give the U.S. government pre-release oversight of their new artificial intelligence models. •That's a looser requirement than Trump had initially planned to impose: a previous executive order would have mandated a 90-day government review period for new models, but that idea was scrapped last month. The new voluntary measure still imposes more oversight than tech companies currently face - if they opt in, that is. TRADE •The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative proposed new tariffs of 10-12.5% on 60 trading partners - including Canada, China, Japan, and several European Union member states - over their failure to ban exports of goods made with forced labor. •That was the stated justification, anyway. A less-touted second rationale is to replace the Liberation Day tariffs that the U.S. Supreme Court struck down with new levies on a sounder legal basis. EBOLA •The World Health Organization said it had overestimated suspected Ebola cases in eastern DRC and Uganda by a lot: hundreds of the 906 suspected cases it estimated last week were ruled out, leaving its new estimate with just 116 suspected cases and 330 confirmed cases. •Despite the positive revision, front-line medical workers still face challenges containing the outbreak, which was identified late. Test kits and protective gear are in short supply, and it's hard to distribute more because of ongoing conflict and weak state control in the region.
Open source reportOff Leash update 28 May 2026 IRAN •The U.S. military said it had downed four Iranian drones menacing the Strait of Hormuz and targeted a drone operating base yesterday, but said its strikes were "purely defensive and intended to maintain the ceasefire." Iran's military said it responded with strikes on a U.S. base. •The fresh exchange of fire still hasn't broken the temporary ceasefire - or either side's will to negotiate a more permanent truce. Citing a former UN mediator, the NYT noted: "Despite exchanging fire, Iran and the U.S. are still in a cease-fire because they both want to be. A resumption of full-scale war would be extremely costly for both...And so the cease-fire violations should be seen as part of the negotiation process, not a will to escalate." •[The same former mediator also observed that Israel's tenuous ceasefires in Lebanon and Gaza - which are also regularly violated - are very different, in that Israel didn't particularly want either truce and won't mind if both break down.] •Separately, Iran's state media released a new, 14-point peace proposal that the White House quickly rejected as a "complete fabrication." LEBANON •Israel's military continued to ramp up its war against Hezbollah, despite the extended ceasefire it's observing with Lebanon. The Israeli army ordered much of southern Lebanon to evacuate and pounded southern Lebanon's largest city, Tyre, with airstrikes targeting Hezbollah infrastructure. UKRAINE •Ukraine's Parliament (Verkhovna Rada) ratified the EU's €90 billion ($105 billion) loan today. Roughly two-thirds of the funds will go towards defense spending, with the remainder earmarked for broader economic support. Ukraine only needs to repay the loan if Russia pays it reparations after the war. •Around €2.5 billion ($2.8 billion) of the new loan will fund the deal Sweden just announced to sell Ukraine up to 20 Saab JAS 39 Gripen E/F fighter jets. Sweden will also transfer 16 used jets of the previous model, Gripen C/D, to Ukraine. CHINA •Dong Guangping - a Chinese ex-policeman whose criticism of his country's Communist regime landed him in jail twice - was found drifting off the west coast of South Korea in a small rubber boat. •This is at least the fourth time Dong has escaped China: he previously fled to Thailand, Vietnam, and Taiwan; but all three countries complied with China's orders to repatriate him. •Now South Korean authorities have detained him on suspicion of violating immigration laws, and Beijing will surely ask Seoul to send him back. It's unclear whether South Korea will agree. EBOLA •Uganda closed its border with DRC after confirming seven Ebola cases from the latest outbreak - which originated in DRC's Ituri province - in Kampala. •The border is around 545 miles (880 km) long and poorly policed, so closing its six official border posts will do little to contain the much heavier flow of traffic that crosses it on informal footpaths and landing sites.
Open source reportOff Leash update 26 May 2026 COMING UP THIS WEEK •Yesterday, the U.S. celebrated Memorial Day, which commemorates fallen soldiers (as opposed to Veterans' Day, which celebrates all who have served). •Tomorrow is Eid al Adha, which marks the end of the hajj pilgrimage to Mecca. Despite the war and Iran's strikes on regional rivals like Saudi Arabia, around 1.7 million Muslims took part in this year's pilgrimage. •U.S. SecState Rubio will meet with his counterparts from the other three Quad countries - Australia, India, and Japan - for talks in Delhi today. One of their chief concerns will be finding ways to counter China's growing geopolitical and economic heft. •Paris Saint-Germain plays Arsenal in the UEFA Champions League final in Budapest on Saturday. •Colombia votes for president on Sunday. Far-left candidate Iván Cepeda is likely to win the most votes - but not a majority - in Sunday's first round, which will pit him against either far-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella or center-right rival Paloma Valencia in a run-off on June 21. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,650/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $35,092/ton •Bitcoin: $77,169 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $13,668/ton •Ethereum: $2,120 •Gold: $4,511/toz •Lead: $2,012/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.92/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $92.46/barrel •Zinc: $3,543/ton IRAN •The U.S. struck several missile sites and mine-laying boats in southern Iran in what CENTCOM called an act of self-defense "to protect our troops from threats posed by Iranian forces." •Despite the fresh U.S. strikes, the temporary ceasefire is still largely holding up as negotiators continue to make slow progress towards a permanent peace deal during mediated talks in Doha. •Iran's foreign ministry confirmed that a "framework" for a truce had been agreed, but it's unlikely to lead to a conclusive, war-ending agreement. As The Economist quipped: "At best...it will be a deal to keep talking about a final deal." ISRAEL •In a Truth Social post, Pres. Trump demanded that several more Middle Eastern countries - namely, Egypt, Jordan, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Qatar - sign onto the Abraham Accords as part of a future deal to end the Iran war. •Critics complained that Trump's new demand adds further complexity to deliberations that are already dauntingly complicated. Plus, several of the countries in question have steadfastly refused to cave to past U.S. pressure to join the pact and are unlikely to suddenly reconsider now. Pakistan and Saudi, in particular, have long maintained that they would only consider joining the Accords and normalizing relations with Israel after Palestine has a clear path to statehood. LEBANON •Three senior Iranian officials told the NYT that the latest Iran ceasefire proposal would also end Israel's war on Hezbollah in Lebanon. •However, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu struck a very different tone in a video statement announcing an escalation in Israel's war against Hezbollah: "We are not removing our foot from the pedal. On the contrary, I said to press on the pedal even more." SUDAN •Human Rights Watch accused the UAE of funding and training Colombian mercenaries fighting alongside the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan's civil war. •It's been well documented that Colombian fighters are backing the RSF, but this is the first compelling claim that the UAE hosted Colombians for training at an Emirati military base before deploying them to Sudan. •The UAE denied the latest accusations - just as it has denied backing the RSF in the first place. GUINEA •Guinea - which is by far the world's largest bauxite producer - announced plans to introduce bauxite export controls next month. •The new curbs will disproportionately affect China, which receives almost three-quarters of Guinea's exported bauxite and processes it into alumina and aluminum.
Open source reportOff Leash update 22 May 2026 IRAN •Pres. Trump said he delayed a "very major attack" against Iran that was planned for Tuesday to allow ongoing "serious negotiations" to play out, after the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE asked him for more time to try to secure a deal that addresses Iran's nuclear program. •It's not clear how serious the ongoing negotiations truly are. Most media reports suggest that Iran's latest counterproposal was essentially identical to the previous one, which Trump rejected as "garbage" after reading the first page. Iranian state media, though, said the current proposal had "narrowed the gaps." •SecState Rubio expressed very cautious optimism about "slight progress" towards a ceasefire deal with Iran, but reports that Iran and Oman are in talks about creating a tolling system for the Strait of Hormuz suggest otherwise. Rubio drew a red line with a warning that a tolling system "would make a diplomatic deal unfeasible." ISRAEL •A new Washington Post report found that the U.S. launched more interceptors (300) defending Israel against incoming attacks than Israel launched in its own defense (190). •The U.S. focused its efforts on intercepting high-altitude ballistic missiles coming from Iran, consuming over 200 Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors - or around half its pre-war THAAD arsenal - plus around 100 Standard Missile-3 and Standard Missile-6 interceptors. •Meanwhile, Israel focused on intercepting lower-altitude incoming fire from Iranian proxies - the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon - using nearly 100 Arrow 3 missiles and around 90 David Sling interceptors. •Kelly Greico - an analyst at the Stimson Center - pointed out that interceptors used for Israel's defense reduce the arsenal available for defending against other adversaries: "That bill risks coming due in theaters that have nothing to do with Iran." EBOLA •The World Health Organization (WHO) has now documented 750 suspected cases of Ebola with 177 suspected Ebola deaths in the latest outbreak, which the WHO only confirmed last weekend and has since upgraded to a "very high" risk of spread within DRC. •Public health experts believe the new Ebola outbreak confirmed in DRC and Uganda over the weekend has been raging for weeks, and will be much harder to contain because of the delay in reporting and confirming it. •This outbreak originated in DRC's insurgency-ridden Ituri province, which has been run by a military government under a "state of siege" since 2021. Public services - including health - often take a backseat to security matters, which could explain why health officials didn't sound the alarm when they first started to see patients with possible Ebola symptoms. •Testing shortfalls also delayed Ituri's outbreak response. The region's Ebola test kits only test for the most common Ebola species, Zaire, and returned negative results. It was only when regional health officials sent tissue samples to Kinshasa - apparently weeks after the first symptoms appeared - that the Bundibugyo species of Ebola was identified. CHINA •Pres. Trump told reporters he planned to speak with Taiwan's Pres. Lai Ching-te before deciding to sell arms to Taiwan. It would be the first time since 1979 that a sitting U.S. president or president-elect has spoken with the leader of Taiwan - though there have been official communications at less senior levels since then. •Beijing blamed Taiwan for the "petty action" of enticing Trump to break from precedent and engage at the highest level, but there's a good chance that Trump floated the idea with Xi Jinping when they met last week: Trump first mentioned he might reach out to Lai immediately upon returning from his summit with Xi.
Open source reportOff Leash update 6 May UKRAINE •Ukraine and Russia both agreed to a ceasefire, but - in an indication of how much they mistrust each other - they agreed to separate ceasefires. •Ukraine's open-ended ceasefire started late yesterday and will last as long as Russia reciprocates, and Russia's - which was announced along with a threat of a "massive missile strike" if Ukraine doesn't comply - will start Friday. •Kyiv has already accused Russia of violating its ceasefire on the front lines, but hasn't torn up the truce yet. IRAN •Pres. Trump announced he was pausing "Project Freedom" - his plan to escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz - after just one day and three escorted transits, citing "great progress" that the U.S. and Iran are making towards a deal. •More likely, Project Freedom was making less progress than Trump had hoped, and Pakistani mediators convinced him it was counterproductive. Instead of freeing up shipping traffic in the Strait, the challenge of military escorts incited Iranian retaliation via small boat attacks. Only two or three escorted boats transited the Strait on Monday, and around 1,600 more remain trapped to the west. •Iran also seemed eager to de-escalate in a way that allows it to save face and claim victory. Its Speaker of Parliament claimed that a "new equation of the Strait of Hormuz is being stabilized." CHINA •Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, visited Beijing for talks with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi. It was their first in-person meeting - and Araghchi's first visit to China - since the war began, but Araghchi and Wang have spoken by phone three times since Feb. 28. •That's probably more than Araghchi has spoken with officials from any other country except those directly mediating between the U.S. and Iran. While it wasn't directly involved in mediating the current temporary ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, Beijing reportedly helped nudge Tehran to accept it. •The timing of Araghchi's visit - just one week before Pres. Xi hosts Pres. Trump - suggests Iran may hope Xi can again intercede as an unofficial mediator. TAIWAN •Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te defied Beijing's bullying and paid a visit to Taiwan's sole remaining ally in Africa, Eswatini (fka Swaziland). •Beijing had sought to block Lai's trip by ordering other African countries to deny his aircraft use of their airspace, but Lai bypassed the prohibition by flying in on an Eswatini government aircraft instead of his own. Beijing likened the clever workaround to "a rat scurrying across the street." ROMANIA •Romania's pro-European coalition government fell in an overwhelming no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan, who came to power less than a year ago as part of a motley coalition that has since broken down over Bolojan's proposed austerity measures. •President Nicusor Dan appealed for calm and promised a new, pro-Western government "within a reasonable time," while ruling out early elections. SYRIA •Syria said its security forces foiled a major terrorist attack that Lebanese Hezbollah militants were planning to carry out in coordinated operations targeting at least five different Syrian governates. •Hezbollah supported the deposed Assad regime's losing side in Syria's civil war, and has continued to agitate against the new government and its ex-rebel leaders in revenge for their efforts to cut off the smuggling routes Iran uses to supply its Lebanese proxy.
Open source reportOff Leash update 28 April IRAN •Iran proposed a new plan to the U.S. via regional mediators. This one dodges the intractable nuclear questions that dogged prior proposals by postponing nuclear negotiations, and focuses instead on ending both blockades of the Strait of Hormuz. •Pres. Trump is reportedly not satisfied with Iran's proposal, which would be hard for him to sell as a win. It fails to resolve two key objectives of his war - barring Iran from future nuclear enrichment and doing away with its stockpile of already-enriched uranium - and only fixes Hormuz shipping, which wasn't broken before the war. RUSSIA •Iran's busy Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, continued his diplomatic tour with a visit to Moscow to discuss the ongoing war with Pres. Putin. •Putin has given Iran limited intelligence and military support, but he doesn't want to upset Israel, Gulf states, or Pres. Trump by overtly siding with Iran. •To that end, he offered Araghchi some nice compliments about how "courageously and heroically the people of Iran are fighting for their independence and for their sovereignty," but reportedly brushed off Araghchi's request to intercede with Pres. Trump to accept the plan Iran proposed for ending blockades. LEBANON •Israel and Hezbollah continue to trade near-daily strikes, though fighting has been largely constrained to the south until yesterday, when Israel struck targets in Hezbollah's stronghold in the eastern Bekaa Valley. •Hezbollah's leader, Naim Qassem, issued a defiant written statement declaring that the militant group will not "relinquish its weapons or its defenses" and demanding that the Lebanese government stop negotiating with Israel on Hezbollah's behalf. •Israel's Defense Minister, Israel Katz, angrily accused Qassem of "playing with fire…[that] will burn Hezbollah and all of Lebanon" and criticized the Lebanese government for failing to rein in or disarm the militants, who vastly outmuscle the weak Lebanese military. MALI •As the dust settles on the weekend's coordinated attacks by al Qaeda-linked Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Tuareg-led Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), it's becoming apparent that the vast assault shook Mali's government deeply. •Defense chief Gen. Sadio Camara wasn't the only high-ranking casualty. Two other senior junta figures - third-in-command Gen. Modibo Koné and military chief of staff Oumar Diarra - were badly injured and taken to heavily-guarded hospitals, where Koné reportedly died of his wounds. •Junta leader / President Assimi Goita was rushed to a secure location as the attacks began, and hasn't been heard from since. His silence is adding to concerns that his government may not survive for long. •JNIM and the FLA aren't necessarily trying to topple Goita's government and probably don't want to control Mali. Rather, they likely prefer to force concessions from the wounded regime: JNIM wants Goita to call off counterinsurgency operations against it, and the FLA seeks more autonomy - and perhaps eventually independence - for northern Tuaregs. •Emerging reports suggest that JNIM now controls Kidal, and JNIM / FLA fighters are entrenched around the cities of Mopti, Sevaré, and Gao awaiting orders that will depend on how the government responds to their demands. DRC •DRC's General Inspectorate of Mines (IGM) announced a new paramilitary "mining guard" to secure critical mineral mining sites and transport routes. •The IGM aims to eventually recruit 20,000 guards for a six-month training program before gradually deploying them to 22 mining provinces, starting with the first 2,500 to 3,000 that will deploy to Katanga in December. •Investment partnerships with the U.S. and UAE will help fund the $100 million guard program, which is essentially a downpayment on fostering a security environment that American and Emirati firms can trust to protect their future investments in DRC's mineral sector. PAKISTAN AND AFGHANISTAN •Unsurprisingly, the fragile, China-mediated truce that Pakistan and Afghanistan agreed to last month is breaking down. •Afghanistan's Taliban government accused Pakistan of targeting a university in Kunar with mortar and rocket strikes that killed seven and wounded 85. •Pakistan's military denied the accusation that it targeted a university as "a blatant lie" and said its targeting is always "precise and intelligence-based." It did not deny the strike or say what its real target was.
Open source reportOff Leash update 22 April IRAN •Pres. Trump announced an extension to the temporary ceasefire with Iran that was set to expire last night. The truce will now remain in effect until Iran's "proposal is submitted, and discussions are concluded, one way or the other." •Trump said the U.S. military blockade of Iranian ports will remain in place, which presents a challenge to forward progress on a lasting peace deal. Iran considers the U.S. blockade a violation of the temporary ceasefire and refused to submit its proposal or engage in a second round of discussions over the matter. •The latest U.S. proposal that the U.S. wants Iran to respond to reportedly contains the same sticking points on nuclear issues as before, making it unlikely that Iran will suddenly agree to accept the U.S. position. JAPAN •Japan relaxed post-World War II restrictions on exporting lethal weapons in a bid to support allies embroiled in wars in the Middle East and Ukraine. Exports will still be restricted to 17 countries with which Japan has defense agreements. •Growing numbers of Japanese - especially the young - oppose the move to erode their country's postwar pacifism. Tens of thousands turned out to protest in front of the Diet yesterday, shouting chants like "stop sucking up to America" and holding signs with anti-war slogans like "Cats, not bombs." CHINA •Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te cancelled a planned trip to Eswatini (fka Swaziland) this week after China pressured three other African countries - the Seychelles, Mauritius, and Madagascar - revoked overflight permission for his presidential aircraft. •Lai blamed China, saying that "the actual reason [for the revocation of flight permits] was intense pressure exerted by Chinese authorities, including economic coercion." Taiwanese officials say Beijing threatened to impose economic sanctions on and cancel much-needed debt relief for the Seychelles, Mauritius, and Madagascar unless they revoked the flight permits. •Eswatini is one of only 12 countries that still recognize Taiwan's independence from China, and the only African country still doing so. Many other nations - like the three that cancelled Lai's flight permits - have been enticed by Belt and Road perks or coerced by economic threats into siding with Beijing. UKRAINE •Ukraine's Pres. Zelensky said repairs to the Druzhba pipeline have been completed and the pipeline can resume carrying Russian oil to Europe. •Zelensky hopes that reopening the pipeline can unlock a €90 billion ($106 billion) European Union (EU) loan to Ukraine that Hungary and Slovakia had been blocking over pipeline repair delays. LEBANON •Israel accused Hezbollah of violating the temporary ceasefire that Israel and Lebanon agreed to by firing rockets at Israeli positions in south Lebanon. •Hezbollah wasn't a party to the 10-day truce but until this incident had mostly respected Lebanon's pleas to uphold it.
Open source reportOff Leash update 1 April IRAN •Pres. Trump plans to address the nation on Iran this evening, and has hinted to reporters that he'll claim his objectives have been achieved and announce a winding down of the war in the next two to three weeks. •Iran's leaders may be skeptical of agreeing to a truce - especially one pitched on April Fool's Day. •For one thing, Trump's stated goal in both brief wars on Iran in the past year - ensuring that Iran will never have a nuclear bomb - still hasn't been conclusively achieved. Iran's 400 kg of enriched uranium is still at large, and its regime hasn't committed to abandoning its nuclear ambitions. If anything, this war may have hardened them. •Nonetheless, Iran's Pres. Pezeshkian seemed cautiously open to a truce, as long as it came with security guarantees. That part will need to be fleshed out in talks. •Israel seems ready to end the war, too. The Israel Defense Forces estimated yesterday that all of its "critical" targets - i.e., those directly linked to Iran's missile programs that present an immediate threat - and "essential" targets - essential military-industrial sites that present a slightly less imminent threat - will be destroyed by today. •Americans will be glad to see the war end and fuel prices retreat. Two-thirds of respondents to a Reuters / Ipsos poll said they supported ending the war quickly, even if Trump's shifting goals for it are unmet. CHINA •As Trump vacillates on how the war might end, China is trying to step in as a peacemaker with a clearer, five-point peace plan that it pitched yesterday with Pakistan. •The Chinese-Pakistani plan calls for an immediate end to hostilities and strikes on infrastructure, a resumption of "normal passage" through the Strait of Hormuz, and "peace talks as soon as possible." •Analysts pointed out that this plan has striking parallels with the 12-point plan China proposed for ending the war in Ukraine in 2023. •That push fizzled out after Xi Jinping declined to stake his political capital meddling in a foreign crisis. It's unclear whether he has any more appetite for intervention now. CUBA •The Anatoly Kolodkin, a U.S.-sanctioned Russian tanker, delivered fuel to Cuba yesterday after securing Pres. Trump's approval to sail through his energy blockade of the island. •This shipment will last Cuba 3-4 weeks, and it may be the first of several: the White House said it would evaluate whether to allow other fuel deliveries to Cuba on a "case-by-case basis." •That's a stark reversal from Trump's proclamation on Truth Social in January that "THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA — ZERO!" Trump said he relented out of humanitarian concern for fuel-starved Cubans, but analysts suggested he lost interest in picking a fight with Cuba while his attention is focused on Iran. IRAQ •American journalist Shelley Kittleson was kidnapped in Baghdad yesterday, and analysts are worried that Iran-linked militias targeted her over the U.S. war in Iran. Details are still hazy. DRC •U.S. firm Virtus Metals finalized its $30 million acquisition of cobalt producer Chemaf - which owns DRC's massive Mutoshi copper-cobalt project - on Friday, thanks in part to U.S. government lobbying driven by a desire to secure non-Chinese sources of critical minerals. •That will make Virtus the largest non-Chinese cobalt miner in DRC, but it faces major financial and operating challenges - including a $1 billion debt burden. Virtus committed to raising $720 million to invest in its new asset, including $250-300 million of capex to finish long-stalled upgrades. •DRC is still actively courting Chinese investment, too. Last week, it signed a new mineral cooperation pact with Beijing that secured China's commitment to share geological data and promote more local processing of raw materials in DRC. •A Congo-focused analyst observed: "The DRC is clearly attempting to hedge its bets."
Open source reportOff Leash update 30 Dec VENEZUELA •Pres. Trump acknowledged that a CIA drone strike about a week ago destroyed a Venezuelan dock allegedly used by Tren de Aragua drug traffickers to export their wares, marking what seems to be the first known land strike on Venezuela. •Trump declined to share more details, and Nicolas Maduro's government has only referred to the incident obliquely - perhaps to downplay concerns about escalation and calls for retaliation. •Separately, another Operation Southern Spear boat strike in the eastern Pacific killed two yesterday. UKRAINE •Pres. Zelensky reported that Pres. Trump offered Ukraine 15 years of security guarantees during their meeting on Sunday. That's far short of the indefinite guarantees Zelensky had sought, but Zelensky seemed content to compromise in the interest of resolving the remaining bigger differences of position. •Rumors suggest Trump may next host a new round of negotiations next month with Zelensky as well as European leaders (some of whom joined by phone this time). ISRAEL •Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu visited Pres. Trump at Mar-a-Lago yesterday for talks that were amiable but produced no big breakthroughs on Trump's Gaza peace plan. •Netanyahu secured one key win, though: he got Trump's assurance that the U.S. would back Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites if Iran continues to develop its weapons programs. IRAN •Protesters demonstrated in Tehran yesterday against rising inflation after preliminary December data showed an annualized inflation rate of 42.2%. •Pres. Pezeshkian has repeatedly conceded that he's out of ideas to fix Iran's ailing economy, and the resignation of his central bank chief yesterday certainly won't help. •An academic paraphrased in the NYT sees two ways Iran can escape the looming inflationary spiral: "It could change its relationship with the United States in exchange for relief on sanctions...or drastically cut government spending, but neither option appears likely." Instead, further inflation seems more probable. CHINA •China is seeking to supplant the U.S. as the lead peacemaker between Thailand and Cambodia. After Pres. Trump claimed a role in closing the initial 72-hour truce, China stepped in to host the next round of talks on a more permanent ceasefire yesterday and today. •Beijing's foreign ministry implicitly boasted that its mediation style was less pushy than the U.S. approach: "China’s efforts to promote peace and dialogue never impose on others or overstep its bounds."
Open source reportOff Leash update 29 Dec COMING UP THIS WEEK •China is staging a sixth round of live-fire war games around Taiwan today and tomorrow in a potential response to the record $11.1 billion arms deal the U.S. announced with Taiwan earlier this month. •Thursday is New Year's Day and many global markets are closed. •Thursday also marks two big changes in Europe: Bulgaria will adopt the Euro as the 21st member of the eurozone currency union, and Cyprus will assume the rotating presidency of the Council of Europe from Denmark. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,961/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $87,882 •Cobalt: $52,790/ton •Copper: $12,163/ton - near record highs on supply constraints, surging demand due to green energy transitions and trade policy uncertainty •Ethereum: $2,970 •Gold: $4,468/toz - another record high on demand for safe haven assets •Lead: $1,995/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.38/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $57.90/barrel •Zinc: $3,091/ton RUSSIA AND UKRAINE •Yesterday, Pres. Trump spoke with Russia's Pres. Putin by phone and then met Ukraine's Pres. Zelensky in person to discuss ideas for ending the war between Russia and Ukraine. •Trump expressed cautious optimism after his meetings, saying Russia and Ukraine are "maybe very close" to a ceasefire. Zelensky seemed to agree and estimated that the current peace proposal was "90 percent" complete. •The Kremlin appeared less enthused. Putin's aides publicly disparaged several key provisions of the proposal - including the idea of European peacekeepers upholding the truce in Ukraine - after Putin discussed it with Trump. THAILAND AND CAMBODIA •Thailand and Cambodia signed a fresh 72-hour ceasefire agreement to end another brief bout of border clashes. •The truce - which started at noon on Saturday - seems to be mostly holding up, but it does little to resolve the longstanding and complex territorial disputes underlying recent flare-ups. •Nonetheless, neither side appears interested in broadening their war, and both are likely to embrace an uneasy detente for now. GUINEA •Guinea voted for president yesterday. Provisional results are due tomorrow, with final results to follow within two weeks. •Coup leader Mamady Doumbouya is slated to win in the first round, despite initially insisting he had no plans to run and running on an uninspiring platform promising to "make Guinea an emerging country." •Doumbouya's junta barred several popular rivals from running against him, which helped his vote count but weakened the legitimacy he hoped the election would confer on his rule. •He'll now face the tall task of responsibly managing Guinea's resources - and especially its massive bauxite reserves. So far, Doumbouya has taken a pragmatic approach to resource development by accepting attractive and non-exclusive investments from diverse partners. •However, his government has kept a close hold on its mining deal details, and has yet to show how it plans to manage its windfall proceeds. SOMALILAND •On Friday, Israel became the first country to recognize the long-sought independence of the breakaway territory of Somaliland, which has been governing itself mostly peacefully since 1991 but remains part of Somalia on maps and at the UN. •Israel aims to revive momentum for the stalled Abraham Accords, a series of U.S.-brokered agreements it signed to normalize diplomatic relations with four Arab nations in 2020 that have since added only one new signatory: Kazakhstan in 2025. •For its part, Somaliland is desperate for any recognition, and hopes that Israel's opening move will inspire more of the 20 nations that Pres. Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi says are on the cusp of recognition to take the leap. •Israel's recognition drew widespread condemnation from multiple angles. Somalia's federal government in Mogadishu and its allies decried the move as a violation of sovereignty and territorial integrity. •Other countries contending with their own self-determined separatist groups - like Morocco and Nigeria - were particularly quick to condemn it, lest it inspire new rebellions elsewhere. •And Yemen's Houthi rebels warned that they would consider any Israeli presence in Somaliland - which lies across the Gulf of Aden from Houthi-controlled southern Yemen - to be "a military target for our armed forces." [In fairness, Israel may indeed be eyeing Somaliland as a base from which to target Houthi positions across the Gulf.] YEMEN •Following weeks of speculation, the Saudi Arabia-led coalition in Yemen formally warned Southern Transition Council (STC) separatists to withdraw from parts of Hadramaut province that they captured earlier this month or risk being "dealt with directly and immediately." •The warning came a day after Saudi apparently "dealt with" STC affiliates by launching airstrikes on their positions in Hadramaut. •Saudi officials declined to comment on the airstrikes and appear to be handling the issue gently to avoid stirring trouble with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which is generally a staunch Saudi ally but also supports the STC in Yemen. Both Saudi and the UAE seem keen to resolve their differences politely and behind closed doors rather than through proxies in Yemen. SYRIA •Islamic State splinter group Ansar al-Sunna claimed that it collaborated with "jihadists from another group" to carry out a mosque bombing in Homs that killed at least eight people in an Alawite area of Homs on Friday. •That sparked large protests in other predominantly Alawite parts of Syria, including Latakia, against the new government's failure to protect the Alawite minority from what they see as reprisal attacks for their loyalty to deposed dictator Bashar Al Assad (who is also an Alawite). •Syria's central government condemned the mosque attack and called for calm.
Open source reportOff Leash update 17 Dec VENEZUELA •In a Truth Social post, Pres. Trump said he had designated Nicolas Maduro's government a foreign terrorist organization and announced a "A TOTAL AND COMPLETE BLOCKADE OF ALL SANCTIONED OIL TANKERS going into, and out of, Venezuela." •While that sounds severe, analysts point out that the emphasis on sanctioned tankers suggests this will be more of a redoubling of ongoing U.S. naval operations against regime-linked boats in the Caribbean than a true blockade. •It won't affect Chevron's legal exports of Venezuelan oil; nor will it threaten legal shipments of other goods to and from Venezuela. And with global oil markets well supplied and China - as the main buyer of Venezuelan oil - unlikely to enthusiastically enforce sanctions, it likely won't have a lasting effect on oil prices either. •The new terrorist designation will, however, facilitate more seizures of sanctioned oil tankers. The U.S. is monitoring around 18 fully-loaded, sanctioned tankers in Venezuelan waters, and Axios reported that it plans to seize any that enter international waters. •The designation could also help build a case for the land strikes and direct military action Trump has repeatedly threatened against Venezuela. •The new measures will also further hobble Venezuela's ailing economy. Since oil is Venezuela's main source of export earnings, the blockade is likely to exacerbate already-high inflation and lead to a fresh surge in outbound migration. UKRAINE •U.S. and European officials wrapped up two days of meetings on Ukraine in Berlin after making some minor progress on possible ceasefire terms. •One new aspect of the tabled peace proposal would see U.S. intelligence and European troops reinforce Ukraine's post-war security and help deter a repeat Russian invasion in the future. Russia will certainly reject that idea; it didn't even bother to respond to the far more favorable plan the U.S. initially proposed. SAHEL •In an interview with pro-Kremlin media outlet TASS, Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister - Sergey Vershinin - accused the West of "waging a large-scale campaign to destabilize the situation" in the junta-run Sahel states of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. •That's an odd accusation from an official representing the country that gained the most from the destabilizing coups that overthrew elected governments in all three Sahel countries. While there's no direct evidence that Russia was involved an any of the putschs, it was quick to capitalize on the opportunity to bolster each junta with no-strings-attached security support in exchange for mineral access. CRITICAL MINERALS •The European Union (EU) outlined a plan to lower its ambitions for replacing combustion engine vehicles with greener models - in part to reduce the costly compliance burden that lofty green targets have forced on struggling European automakers. •Instead of requiring EU-made vehicles to eliminate 100% of their carbon emissions by 2035, the new target would aim for a 90% reduction in emissions. That means carmakers could still produce hybrids and internal combustion engine cars after 2035 - though fewer of them than they're making now. •If adopted, the plan would reduce EU carmakers' demand for battery minerals like cobalt and rare earths. It's seen as a particularly welcome reprieve for the EU's luxury carmakers like Porsche, Mercedes-Benz, and BMW, who have struggled more with the green transition than their mass-market counterparts.
Open source reportOff Leash update 12 Nov PAKISTAN •The Pakistani Taliban (TTP) belatedly claimed yesterday's courthouse blast in Islamabad and said it was targeting "[j]udges, lawyers and officials who carried out rulings under Pakistan’s un-Islamic laws." •It was the first major attack inside the heavily-guarded Pakistani capital in over 10 years. •Defense Minister Khawaja Asif called it a "wake-up call" to the threat the TTP poses to the country, and declared a "state of war" extending beyond the border areas where the army is already battling the TTP. VENEZUELA •The U.S. Navy has sent the USS Gerald Ford - its most advanced aircraft carrier - to the Caribbean to join the ongoing mobilization in the seas around Venezuela, cutting its previous mission to the Mediterranean short by several months. •The Ford will add 5,500 troops to the 10,000-strong U.S. force that has Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro worried for his illegitimate regime. •Aware that he's outgunned by a stronger force with superior technology, Maduro is reportedly trying to inspire a guerrilla-style resistance in case of a U.S. land attack. It's unclear how much of his military would stand by him if his rule was threatened and they were no longer being coerced into loyalty. •Separately, CNN reported that the UK disagrees with the extrajudicial strikes the U.S. force has been carrying out against suspected drug trafficking boats in the region, and stopped sharing relevant intelligence with the U.S. soon after the strikes began. That won't hinder U.S. strikes, though: the UK provides only a small slice of the intelligence the U.S. has used in its 19 strikes to date. WEST BANK •Israeli police arrested four Jewish extremists who attacked Palestinians in the West Bank and then assaulted Israeli soldiers in a nearby industrial zone. •There's been a recent rise in extremist attacks on West Bank Palestinians: the UN logged 264 attacks causing casualties, property damage, or both in October - more than in any other month in almost 20 years. •But yesterday's incidents were unusual in that the perpetrators were arrested and Pres. Herzog publicly condemned the violence for targeting soldiers too: "Such violence against civilians and against IDF soldiers crosses a red line." TURKEY •Istanbul's chief prosecutor filed a wide-ranging indictment against the city's popular jailed mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu, and is seeking an absurd 2,352-year total sentence for Pres. Erdogan's strongest rival. •The indictment accused İmamoğlu of leading a vast criminal network that has squeezed Turkey's commercial capital "like the arms of an octopus." •İmamoğlu's real offense was wresting control of Istanbul from Erdogan's party and preparing to challenge Erdogan for the presidency. The timing of İmamoğlu's detention was deliberate: he was arrested days before his party was due to name him as its candidate to run against Erdogan). THAILAND •Thailand suspended its truce with Cambodia after four Thai soldiers were injured by a landmine. Both sides seem inclined to avoid war, but tensions remain high. CHINA •China gave European carmakers some relief by easing restrictions on automotive chip exports to the EU for 12 months. •Analysts point out that the one-year reprieve isn't as much of an EU victory as it might seem. Beijing still bars chip exports for military use, and retained the framework for restoring restrictions on civilian chip exports after the 12-month pause expires.
Open source reportOff Leash update 4 Nov 2025 U.S. •U.S. off-year elections are today. Vote! GAZA •Yesterday, the U.S. circulated a draft UN Security Council resolution proposing an International Security Force (ISF) to run post-war Gaza for two years. •The draft emphasizes that the ISF would be an "enforcement force and not a peacekeeping force," and would have a mandate to disarm terror groups. •That's likely to be a turnoff for some of the Arab and Muslim leaders - like Jordan's King Abdullah - who have said they won't contribute troops to a force tasked with enforcing peace rather than merely keeping it. [Peace enforcement generally uses coercive measures like military force to impose peace - an idea that King Abdullah says "nobody will want to touch" in Gaza.] VENEZUELA •The Washington Post reported that Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro has been begging for help from Russia, China, and Iran to upgrade its arsenal, defenses, and air fleet in light of the ongoing buildup of U.S. forces in the region, which Maduro (rightly) perceives as a threat to his regime. •Russia has sent Maduro at least two cargo planes of kit in recent weeks, but some analysts think that's about all the support that Moscow will be able to offer while its focus and resources are stretched in Ukraine. A spokesman for Russia's Foreign Ministry merely acknowledged that her ministry was "in contact with" a pleading Maduro regime. •Iran has sent Maduro some drones; it's not clear whether or how China has replied to his requests. SUDAN •Satellite photos appeared to corroborate survivors' accounts that Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are carrying out systematic massacres of civilian men in El Fasher, which the RSF finally captured from the army last week. •Separately, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) - the world's leading authority on food crises - deemed El Fasher and a second Sudanese city, Kordofan's Kadugli, to be facing famine after monthslong RSF sieges. CHINA •The Economist analyzed 14,000 documented examples of Xi Jinping's speeches and writings since 2013 to spot some noteworthy trends. •Xi's use of bold language - "strong country," "great enterprise," "high quality," etc. - has risen dramatically, while he's reduced his use of fluffier and feelier words like "hope," "care," and "opinions." Read more here: https://t.co/VailJ6WtMG. TANZANIA •Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan was sworn in to a new term as nationwide protests against her sham re-election continued. •One might think that a leader popular enough to claim 98% of the vote with a record turnout of 87% (per official stats) would relish celebrating her victory as her predecessors celebrated theirs: with a huge public inauguration bash at Dar es Salaam's largest stadium. •Instead, Samia took her oath of office in a private (but televised) event at a military venue, citing security concerns - which she blamed on "foreigners." •Reports of empty polling stations on election day cast doubt on the official turnout figures, and Samia didn't need to plump turnout up anyway: her victory was already ensured when her only two serious rivals were banned from running against her. GUINEA •Guinea's junta leader, Mamady Doumbouya, formally filed to contest the December 28 presidential election, reversing a pledge he made upon seizing power in 2021 to hand authority over to an elected government and not run for election himself. •Doumbouya apparently changed his mind after a convenient September referendum lifted a constitutional prohibition on military leaders contesting elections and introduced new restrictions that bar his two closest rivals from running. •Doumbouya's supporters - who don't seem to understand how democracy works - cheered him on as he filed his campaign papers: "Mamady champion, Mamady president, Mamady already elected!"
Open source reportOff Leash update 3 Nov COMING UP THIS WEEK •The U.S. votes in mid-term elections on Tuesday. The most-watched races include New York City's mayoral contest, heated gubernatorial polls in Virginia and New Jersey, and California's Prop. 50 on redistricting (to supporters) / gerrymandering (to those opposed). •Sunday marks the 36th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,884/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $107,777 •Cobalt: $48,570/ton •Copper: $10,888/ton •Ethereum: $3,733 •Gold: $4,022/toz •Lead: $2,017/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.28/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $60.76/barrel •Zinc: $3,056/ton GAZA •Hamas returned the remains of three more hostages, including U.S. citizen Omer Neutra. •Despite Israeli claims otherwise, Hamas maintains that it's working as fast as it can to locate and return the remains of the other eight hostages who died in captivity over the course of the two-year war. •Meanwhile, an Israeli airstrike killed one man who was allegedly threatening Israeli troops near Gaza City. LEBANON •Israel is growing frustrated with the Lebanese government's lack of progress disarming Hezbollah, and has taken up the task of targeting Hezbollah operatives in southern Lebanon with near-daily airstrikes in recent weeks. •Lebanon's Pres. Aoun resents the intrusions and wants Israeli troops to leave the five areas of southern Lebanon that they still occupy. Aoun has called on Israel to negotiate a more permanent ceasefire than the fragile (but lasting) truce they signed a year ago. •However, Israel seems uninterested in negotiating while Aoun's government is failing to uphold its commitment to contain and disarm Hezbollah. [Analysts point out that Aoun's Lebanese Armed Forces are weaker than Hezbollah and he can't do much to force disarmament.] •Prime Minister Netanyahu warned of further Israeli action against Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, and blamed Iran for backing both Hezbollah and the Houthis. TANZANIA •Tanzania's election commission confirmed Samia Suluhu Hassan - who appointed its commissioners - as the winner of last week's presidential election, with an unsurprising 98% of the vote. The commission also dubiously claimed that turnout was around 75% higher than in 2020, when voters had more of a choice of candidates. •Hassan's win was essentially uncontested this time, since her government barred both real rivals from running. It also tried to prevent unhappy Tanzanians from protesting against the election by imposing a nationwide curfew, restricting internet access, and condescendingly calling critics of the undemocratic poll "neither responsible nor patriotic." •The main opposition party, CHADEMA - whose leader is imprisoned awaiting sentencing on spurious charges - claims security officers have killed hundreds of protesters. Demonstrations continue, despite Hassan's crackdown. CHINA •U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said China made a "real mistake" by proposing since-postponed export control restrictions on rare earths, since the threat alone motivated the U.S. to get serious about finding alternative sources for its rare earths needs. •Australia is one of the alternative sources being developed: Pres. Trump and Prime Minister Albanese recently signed an agreement to jointly develop Australia's rare earth supplies. •Incidentally, Bessent's comments felt like a close parallel to the effect that U.S. export controls on advanced computing chips have had on Chinese chipmaking, where supply restrictions forced fast-track domestic innovators to quickly catch up to technologies they were barred from importing. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 22 Sept COMING UP THIS WEEK •The 80th UN General Assembly (UNGA) culminates in some dramatic (by diplomatic standards) sessions this week. •Several more countries plan to recognize Palestinian statehood at the UN today, after four preponed their announcements to yesterday out of respect for the Jewish new year of Rosh Hashana, which begins today. Pres. Trump will address UNGA delegates tomorrow. •The Seychelles votes for president and parliament Thursday. •Aussie rules football world cup starts Saturday, which is also the 200th anniversary of the first passenger train, the UK's Stockton and Darlington Railway. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,672/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $112,907 •Cobalt: $34,550/ton •Copper: $9,989/ton •Ethereum: $4,204 •Gold: $3,713/toz •Lead: $1,997/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.93/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $63.01/barrel •Zinc: $2,889/ton PALESTINIAN STATEHOOD •Australia, Canada, Portugal, and the UK recognized Palestinian statehood yesterday, and at least four more countries will make similar announcements today. •The U.S. and Israel vocally denounced the new recognitions and are boycotting a French-led UN conference on a two-state solution today. •Realist observers agree that formal recognition won't change the realities on the ground in Palestinian territories anyway. True statehood - with a functional government - looks even more elusive now than it did before Oct. 7. •It will fade even further from reality if Israel responds to this new wave of recognitions by annexing all but 18% of the West Bank, as it has threatened to do. SUDAN •Sudan's military blamed the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) for a "horrific" drone strike that killed over 70 worshippers at a mosque in Darfur on Friday. •There's credible evidence that the military has committed many horrific crimes of its own in the two-and-a-half-year civil war it's fighting against the RSF. •The UN Human Rights Office (OHCHR)'s latest report on Sudan - which was published on Friday - noted that both sides have escalated attacks near civilian centers in 2025, leading to a near doubling in civilian fatalities in the first six months of this year vs. last year. VENEZUELA •Bloomberg reported that Venezuela's Pres. Maduro wrote a direct letter to Pres. Trump on Sep. 6 - four days after the first U.S. strike on an alleged drug boat departing Venezuela - to vehemently Trump's accusations that Venezuela is a major drug exporter and plea for U.S.-Venezuela talks to defuse tensions. •Trump hasn't publicly acknowledged Maduro's letter, but the fact that his envoy, Richard Grenell, expressed hope that "we can still have a deal" suggests Trump may be open to negotiating. •However, two more U.S. strikes on suspected Venezuelan drug boats in the past week might complicate plans for talks. So might the Dominican Republic's confirmation that its coast guard recovered 377 packages of cocaine from the wreckage of the latest strike. CHINA •The NYT made a good point about China's apparent acquiescence on divesting TikTok, after five years of fighting to keep control of the app. •While many viewed last week's divestment deal as a win for the U.S. and a concession from China, in the bigger picture of ongoing trade tensions between the world's two largest economies, ownership of an app may be a very minor bargaining chip that China is happy to trade to "[buy] itself room to negotiate on the matters it cares about most: tariffs, technology and Taiwan." •The deal is not done yet, and its terms are not yet public. 1/2
Open source reportOff leash update 17 sept UKRAINE •Poland floated the idea of making the skies over Ukraine a no-fly zone. •It's an idea first raised by Pres. Zelensky early in the war: Zelensky reasoned that if the skies over his country were closed to air traffic, then he could justifiably ask NATO allies to shoot down Russian intruders who defied the ban. •Back then, NATO leaders rejected the idea out of fear of being drawn into a military conflict with Russia. Now, Poland's foreign minister, for one, thinks that "If Ukraine were to ask us” to shoot down drones over its territory, it will be advantageous for us." •The U.S. will likely remain opposed to the idea of a no-fly zone over Ukraine for the same reasons as before. RUSSIA •A new study by war crimes investigators at Yale University's Humanitarian Research Lab found that Russia's quiet forced re-education (read: indoctrination) programs for Ukrainian children from occupied territories are much larger than initially understood. •The study documented at least 210 Russian sites holding Ukrainian children (vs. around half that number in initial estimates). Some of those sites are military training schools; others are education camps with a severe pro-Russian nationalist slant. •The Geneva Convention prohibits military recruitment in occupied territories, but Russia argues that the prohibition doesn't apply here because it has annexed - not merely occupied - the Ukrainian areas in question. CHINA •Chinese and Philippine boats had another confrontation at sea near the disputed Scarborough Shoal yesterday. •Last week, China approved plans to turn the waters around the shoal into a national nature reserve to preserve its (disputed) right to the area, which lies well within the Philippines' Exclusive Economic Zone (as well as China's nine-dash line). This was the first run-in since those plans were approved. •The Philippines accused China of "aggressive" actions against its boats that were resupplying fishermen; China blamed the Philippines for the spat, which caused a collision between two boats. AFGHANISTAN •Afghanistan's Taliban government severed fiber-optic internet service to Balkh province "for the prevention of vices." Balkh residents can still get their vices on mobile internet, which remains up. •The Taliban's critics point out that cutting off home internet will disporportionately affect women and girls - many of whom started reading and studying online at home after the Taliban closed their schools and banned them from working. SOUTH SUDAN •Following two years of independent investigations, the UN Commission on Human Rights issued its verdict on South Sudan's festering political feud between Pres. Kiir and his First Vice President, Riek Machar. •The UN commission found both sides at fault for "the plundering of a nation," and blamed the leadership's infighting and corruption for "driving hunger, collapsing health systems, and causing preventable deaths, as well as fuelling deadly armed conflict over resources." •The commission's report cited one particularly damning example: South Sudan's government has collected $25.2 billion in oil revenues since 2011, yet has spent just a rounding error of that on essential services. As a result, "three-quarters of child deaths are preventable — yet funds go to patronage and private pockets, not medicine or clean water and sanitation."
Open source reportOff Leash update 27 Aug COMING UP THIS WEEK •The two-day Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit starts Sunday. China's Pres. Xi, Russia's Pres. Putin, and India's Prime Minister Modi will all attend, but the meetings aren't expected to lead to groundbreaking new declarations or alliances. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,638/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $112,266 •Cobalt: $33,335/ton •Copper: $9,837/ton •Ethereum: $4,624 •Gold: $3,396/toz •Lead: $1,988/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.87/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $64.19/barrel •Zinc: $2,814/ton TRADE •Higher U.S. tariffs on India - which are, effectively, secondary sanctions on India for buying Russian oil - went into effect today. •Some feel India was unfairly singled out for an exceptionally high tariff rate of 50%, despite being largely aligned with U.S. geopolitical priorities and buying far less Russian oil than China, which is more of a geopolitical rival and yet enjoys a far lower tariff rate than 50% (for now). UKRAINE •Russian forces captured villages in Ukraine's Dnipropetrovsk region for the first time. Analysts suggest Putin is seeking new bargaining chips in case he's pushed to start negotiating a peace deal with Ukraine. GAZA •Two Israeli strikes on Nasser Hospital in southern Gaza on Monday killed at least 20, including five journalists, and drew widespread condemnation - including from the UN, which said there "needs to be justice" for the strike. Israel said it was aiming for a "camera that was positioned by Hamas" at the hospital. SAHEL •Russia's state-owned nuclear power company, Rosatom, signed a cooperation agreement with the junta in Niger to explore the radical possibility of building Africa's first nuclear power plant in the Nigerien desert. •Niger's current fiscal and technological state renders the construction of a nuclear power plant there virtually impossible - even with Rosatom's strongest. The cooperation agreement is probably more of a symbol of a switch of loyalty from France - whose state-owned Orano mined Niger's uranium for over 50 years - to Russia. DRC •DRC and the M23 resumed mediated peace talks in Doha, despite the M23's continued attacks in eastern DRC. •Both sides insist they're still serious about talking peace, but they've ignored self-set deadlines to resume talks by Aug. 8 and to finalize a ceasefire by Aug. 18, and have no additional motivation to seal a deal now. NORTH KOREA •Following a meeting with South Korea's Pres. Lee Jae-myung, Pres. Trump said he hoped to meet Lee's northern rival, Kim Jong Un, "in the appropriate future." It would be the fourth meeting between Kim and Trump.
Open source reportOff Leash update 21 Aug GAZA •The Israeli military began what a spokesman called "the next phase of the war" in Gaza and called up 60,000 reservists for the effort. Its troops have reached the edges of Gaza City and are preparing to encircle it and take control. •Meanwhile, a planning committee issued final approval for a contentious 3,400-unit West Bank settlement project called East One, or E1 for short. E1 was first proposed in 1995, but its approval was long delayed until now - in part over widespread concerns that E1's central location will disrupt the contiguity of the Palestinian-populated West Bank. •To Israeli hardliners like finance minister Bezalel Smotrich, that's exactly the point: after yesterday's approval, Smotrich gloated that the idea of a Palestinian state "is being erased from the table." Smotrich has been a driving force behind the recent acceleration in settlement approvals, and critics say Prime Minister Netanyahu has given Smotrich unprecedented - and unwarranted - authority over settlement plans because he needs Smotrich's party's support to stay in power. •Both moves - in Gaza and the West Bank - suggest Netanyahu isn't seriously considering the temporary ceasefire proposal Hamas agreed to this week. UKRAINE •Russia's Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, said that Russia would insist on being party to any future security guarantees for Ukraine, including those the U.S. is considering that Pres. Trump suggested could be "NATO-like." I suppose that means that if Russia attacks Ukraine post-peace, it will be obliged to retaliate on Ukraine's behalf against...itself? •Lavrov's bizarre comment seems like yet another example that Russia isn't ready to talk peace. •Meanwhile on the battlefield, Russian troops continue to inch forward using inefficient but sneaky tactics like sending small groups of footsoldiers across to regroup behind Ukrainian lines and attack. •Russia's broader goal appears to be to capture as much ground as possible so it can start peace talks from a better negotiating position - if its valiant stalling efforts fail and it's forced to start talks. CHINA •China's Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, returned from a two-day state visit to India with several trade and diplomatic agreements to rebuild and strengthen ties between the two Asian giants. Ties gradually frayed over their superpower rivalry, but cleaved in 2020 over a border dispute. •China and India now plan to reopen their shared (and still disputed) border in three places and facilitate visa approvals to improve trade flows. They'll also resume direct flights, which had been suspended since pandemic lockdowns. •Some analysts see the diplomatic rekindling as a result of U.S. trade pressure on India that has encouraged India to turn to other trade and geopolitical allies instead. •Separately, Chinese leader Xi Jinping paid a rare and unannounced visit to the Tibetan capital of Lhasa yesterday. Xi - who hadn't visited Lhasa since 2021 - said Beijing would "guide Tibetan Buddhism to adapt to socialist society," which probably means it will continue to impose the Communist Party's devoutly atheist values on resolutely spiritual Tibetan Buddhists in the region. AFGHANISTAN •After Chinese Foreign Minister Wang's visit to India, Wang flew to Kabul to offer Afghanistan's Taliban government new Chinese investment - particularly in infrastructure and mining (especially of lithium, iron, and copper) - and to invite Afghanistan to formally join the Belt and Road Initiative. •China's 176 construction contracts and investment pledges to Belt and Road members in the first half of 2025 totaled $124 billion. That's already more than the $122 billion that China pledged to members in all of 2024. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 12 June CHINA •Following two days of trade talks in London, the U.S. and China agreed on a framework for a longer-term detente in their trade war that would extend the temporary reciprocal tariff reprieve agreed last month. •The sticking point that kept last month's trade talks from reaching a lasting truce was China's refusal to lift export controls on rare earth minerals. U.S. officials seem content that the new framework resolves that impasse, but it's unclear whether it also addresses reciprocal non-tariff measures the U.S. imposed in response (such as curbs on Chinese student enrollment in U.S. universities). •The framework that came out of this week's summit will now be escalated to Presidents Trump and Xi for their approval. ECONOMY •A possible imminent U.S.-China trade deal wasn't factored into the World Bank's revised economic forecast released yesterday. That forecast predicted a decline in global economic growth from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.3% in 2025 - and a decline in U.S. economic growth forecast from 2.8% to 1.4% - due to trade wars like the one the U.S.-China framework aims to resolve. DRC •A new draft of a U.S. proposal for a Rwanda-DRC peace deal reportedly demands that Rwanda fully withdraw its troops from eastern DRC as a precondition for a ceasefire. •Rwanda's Pres. Kagame implausibly denies sending troops into DRC, but will nonetheless probably resist orders to withdraw them because he maintains they're necessary to counter vague threats from Hutu militias. SUDAN •Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) claimed it captured the strategic "triangle" region bordering Egypt and Libya. •The military - which has been fighting the RSF since April 2023 - seemed to corroborate the RSF's claim when it acknowledged that it retreated from the triangle region "as part of defensive arrangements to repel aggression." •Unverified local reports claimed that fighters loyal to Libya's eastern commander, Khalifa Haftar, crossed the border to help the RSF capture the triangle region. If confirmed, it would be the first known instance of Libyan meddling in Sudan's civil war. PAKISTAN •Likely jolted by last month's dust-up with India, Pakistan's military announced plans to boost its military spending by 20% to $9 billion for the fiscal year starting July 1. •That's a sharp increase - especially in the context of a 7% decrease in overall government spending for the next fiscal year. Parliament must still approve the budget. GAZA •In a letter to France's Pres. Macron and Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince MBS, Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas condemned Hamas's Oct. 7 attacks and called on Hamas to cede control of Gaza and release all hostages. •Abbas also promised various reforms to the PA, including new presidential elections to be held within a year. He has made and broken the same promise several times in the 29 years since the last presidential poll. •Abbas is hoping to meet Macron's conditions for recognizing Palestinian statehood as early as next week, and wants to position his PA to lead a potential new Palestinian nation. •Israel vehemently opposes Palestinian statehood, and has grown increasingly irritated with France for entertaining the idea. Prime Minister Netanyahu recently accused Pres. Macron of leading "a crusade against the Jewish state" by supporting Palestinian statehood. •Separately, five countries - Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, and the UK - slapped sanctions on two far-right Israeli ministers - interior minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and finance minister Bezalel Smotrich - for stoking settler violence in the West Bank and encouraging the expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 14 April 2025 COMING UP THIS WEEK •The 2025 World Expo opened yesterday in Osaka, Japan. •Pres. Trump hosts El Salvador's Pres. Bukele at the White House today and Italy's Prime Minister Meloni on Thursday. •U.S. markets are closed on Friday for Good Friday, and Easter is this Sunday. •Saturday is the 250th anniversary of the start of the American Revolution. COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,397/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $28,950/ton •Cobalt: $33,700/ton •Copper: $9,155/ton •Gold: $3,223/toz •Lead: $1,914/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.47/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $62.03/barrel •Zinc: $2,652/ton IRAN •The U.S. and Iran held their first bilateral talks since 2018 on Saturday in Oman. Both sides seemed pleased with how it went, so they'll continue with a second round of talks starting Saturday in Rome. •Some (including me) had worried that the U.S. might make uncompromising demands - such as a complete dismantling of Iran's nuclear programs - in this first session, leading Iran to walk away from talks. •That didn't happen. Instead, the U.S. goal for this first session seems to have been to shift from the indirect format Iran wanted to a direct exchange. The U.S. achieved that goal: U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi reportedly met directly for 45 minutes at the end of a day of indirect talks. •Israeli officials remain concerned that the U.S. is being too soft on Iran. SAUDI ARABIA •The Trump administration also revived talks with Iran's regional arch-rival, Saudi Arabia, over the weekend. The U.S. and Saudi are considering a deal that would give Saudi access to U.S. nuclear technology - and could let Saudi enrich its own uranium in the future. •U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the details of an agreement are still hazy but "but it certainly looks like there is a pathway" forward. CHINA •China made another move in its escalating trade spat with the U.S.: Beijing suspended exports of certain rare earths to the U.S. in retaliation for higher U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods. •The NYT assessed that the White House hopes to stop the escalation with direct talks: "The U.S. administration has been waiting for the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, to call Trump, but Beijing appears wary of putting Xi in an unpredictable situation with the U.S. president." •Xi, meanwhile, is on a charm offensive through Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia) this week. His trip was planned long before Pres. Trump surprised those countries with high reciprocal tariffs (which were later paused), but it has taken on new significance after Trump's tariff announcements. Analysts believe Xi will now use his Asian meetings to counter-position China as a stable trade partner - in juxtaposition to the unreliable one keeping global markets on edge. •Separately, the UK took control of its last operating steel production factory from its Chinese owners, who lost interest in the loss-making blast furnaces but still control British Steel's more profitable milling segment. •The episode tainted the UK's trust in Chinese investment: UK business secretary Jonathan Reynolds accused the British Steel's Chinese owners of not negotiating "in good faith," and said future Chinese investment offers would need to clear a "high trust bar" after this. [More cynical voices accuse British Steel's Chinese owners of deliberately ruining its business at the behest and benefit of the Chinese government.] UKRAINE •Russia fired missiles at the Ukrainian city of Sumy during Palm Sunday celebrations yesterday, killing at least 34. •Early reports suggest the Russian missiles fell on Sumy in two waves: an initial one followed by a second that landed as emergency responders arrived to aid victims of the first wave. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 8 April 2025 COMING UP THIS WEEK •Qatar is set to mediate DRC-M23 peace talks starting tomorrow - if neither side walks away before then. •U.S. inflation data for March will be published on Thursday. Economists expect slow price growth for March, but anticipate a sharp rise in inflation this month once new tariffs are passed through to consumers. •Golf's Masters Tournament runs Thursday through Sunday at Augusta National. •U.S.-Iran talks will resume Saturday (see below for more). •Next weekend will see presidential elections in Gabon on Saturday and Ecuador (a run-off) on Sunday. •Beijing will host the world's first half marathon featuring humanoid robot runners - in addition to real humans - on Sunday. •Sunday is also the date of the annual University Boat Race between Oxford and Cambridge. To paraphrase a commentator for the 1949 race, I don't know who will win but it's either Oxford or Cambridge. COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,371/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $28,950/ton •Cobalt: $33,700/ton •Copper: $8,732/ton •Gold: $3,006/toz - slightly off record highs of ~$3,120/toz •Lead: $1,870/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.64/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $60.94/barrel •Zinc: $2,614/ton IRAN •In an unexpected development, Pres. Trump announced that the U.S. and Iran will engage in direct* nuclear talks starting Saturday in Oman. •*Iran confirmed that it will participate in talks with the U.S. starting Saturday, but said the first round will be conducted indirectly via mediators, with direct talks to follow if this round goes well. [Ayatollah Khamenei has ruled out direct talks with the U.S. while Trump's "maximum pressure" policy is in place. ] •Trump threatened that Iran would be "in great danger" if the talks fail. They could well fail if U.S. negotiators make heavy-handed demands that a weakened and insecure Iran would feel compelled to reject - such as ordering Iran to completely dismantle its nuclear programs. •Separately, The Washington Post reported that Iranian tried to hire a Georgian drug trafficker to assassinate Rabbi Shneor Segal, the Chief Rabbi of Baku's Ashkenazi community, in Azerbaijan. Azerbaijani security services thwarted the hit in January. TRADE •Pres. Trump told reporters that his new reciprocal tariffs are simultaneously permanent and open to negotiation - "because there are things that we need beyond tariffs." •So far, only China (reciprocal tariff rate: 34%) and Canada (25%) have retaliated to U.S. reciprocal tariffs with new levies of their own. •The European Union (20%) is reportedly considering retaliating with a 25% tariff on a limited set of goods initially, but the bloc has also offered to completely remove tariffs on some products if the U.S. does the same. Ultimately, European officials suggest they hope to find a compromise to revert to lower tariffs, but they've threatened to expand the range of goods subject to tariffs if compromise proves elusive. •Most countries targeted with new reciprocal tariffs have resisted retaliating and instead plan to either offer concessions or try to negotiate. •Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu rushed back to the White House for talks on both stalled hostage negotiations and tariff relief. Netanyahu pledged to eliminate Israel's trade surplus with the U.S. by buying more U.S. goods and asked Trump to lift the tariff he imposed on Israel (17%) in return. Trump demurred, citing the $4 billion in annual aid the U.S. gives Israel - "that's a lot." •The Prime Minister of Japan (24%), Ishiba Shigeru, said he would also visit the White House soon to plea for tariff relief. •Vietnam (46%) reportedly offered to remove all tariffs on U.S. goods if the U.S. returns the favor. 1/
Open source reportOff Leash update 24 March 2025 COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,623/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,450/ton •Cobalt: $33,610/ton •Copper: $9,856/ton •Gold: $3,029/toz •Lead: $2,017/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.94/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $68.18/barrel •Zinc: $2,928/ton UKRAINE •Ukrainian and U.S. officials met in Riyadh yesterday, and may continue their summit today. They aim to finalize details surrounding the 30-day pause on striking energy infrastructure. •U.S. officials in Riyadh will also meet with Russian officials today. Russia has already agreed to the pause on energy infrastructure strikes, so these meetings will seek to advance an additional maritime ceasefire. •China is reportedly considering contributing peacekeepers to uphold a post-war truce in Ukraine "in accordance with the wishes of the parties." Russia had previously rejected the idea of NATO peacekeepers in Ukraine, but would probably be more amenable if China participated in the mission. GAZA •U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff told Fox News Sunday that Hamas seemed to initially accept his bridge proposal to extend the Gaza ceasefire last week, but then reneged and rejected it. Witkoff blamed Hamas for the failure to find a truce and the descent to resumed fighting. •Israel targeted Hamas's prime minister in Gaza, Ismail Barhoum, killing him in a hospital where he was receiving treatment for injuries he sustained in another Israeli strike. Barhoum had only been prime minister for a few days after his predecessor was killed earlier in the week - also by an Israeli strike. •Hamas's health ministry said Gaza's wartime death toll has now surpassed 50,000. Hamas doesn't distinguish between dead civilians and combatants. •Israel's Security Cabinet inaugurated a new directorate to assist Palestinians who want to be resettled abroad, and the new directorate kicked off its mission by flying 70 Gazans with foreign citizenships or family ties to Europe, where they'll resettle. YEMEN •Yemen's Houthis fired a Palestine 2 ballistic missile in the general direction of Israel's Ben Gurion Airport, but it was easily intercepted before it reached Israeli airspace (despite Houthi claims that it reached its target). SUDAN •After seizing the presidential palace from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on Friday, Sudan's military continued to retake key sites in Khartoum. Over the weekend, it recaptured the Central Bank, the intelligence headquarters, and the Corinthia Hotel. •The army's recent success in Khartoum doesn't mean the war is over: the RSF still holds parts of the capital, as well as large swathes of western Sudan. DRC •Nearly a week after Presidents Tshisekedi and Kagame agreed on the necessity of imposing a ceasefire in eastern DRC, the leaders of the Rwanda-backed rebel umbrella group Alliance Fleuve Congo (which includes the M23) said it supported a truce and announced that its fighters would withdraw from the mining town of Walikale, which they captured the day after Tshisekedi and Kagame met in Doha. •Tshisekedi then kindly asked (but did not order) his troops to observe the ceasefire too. •Both sides seem skeptical of the truce and ready to resume fighting at any moment. Rwanda and the rebels it backs are not ceding Goma or their other major spoils of war, and the Congolese military warned that it "reserves the right to intervene in the event of any hostile movement likely to compromise the pause in fighting." 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 March 2025 COMING UP THIS WEEK •U.S. and Ukrainian officials will meet in Saudi Arabia starting tomorrow. Pres. Zelensky is in Saudi and said he was "fully committed" to negotiating an end to the war, but he won't participate in the U.S.-Ukrainian meetings; instead, he'll meet Saudi's Crown Prince MBS for economic talks while his delegates meet U.S. SecState Rubio et al. •Greenland goes to the polls tomorrow. While the question of independence from Denmark isn't directly on the ballot, analysts will be watching results to see if Greenlanders veer towards candidates in favor of greater autonomy for their island. •China, Iran, and Russia will hold joint naval exercises in the northern Indian Ocean this week. Several countries - including Pakistan, Qatar, South Africa, and the UAE - will send observers. COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,706/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,450/ton •Cobalt: $26,960/ton •Copper: $9,614/ton •Gold: $2,901/toz •Lead: $2,019/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.60/MMbtu - a three-year high due to supply constraints and cold weather •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $67.06/barrel •Zinc: $2,887/ton GAZA •France, Germany, Italy, and the UK said they would support Egypt's plan for post-war Gaza; however, that plan still faces significant hurdles: the U.S. and Israel have rejected it - Israel more vehemently than the U.S. - and so far no donors have stepped up to commit the first of the $53 billion needed to fund the plan. •Optimists are hopeful for a second-phase ceasefire agreement this week. Israel sent a delegation to Qatar today "in an effort to advance the negotiations," and Hamas said it has received "positive signals" from the Egyptian and Qatari mediators it's been working with. SYRIA •An independent monitor estimated that over 1,000 people - mostly civilians - have been killed in the past week's clashes between the new government's forces and loyalists to the deposed Assad regime in Latakia. •The Assad loyalists clashing with government troops don't appear to be centrally organized or led; rather, the Institute for the Study of War suggests there are multiple small groups of loyalists each independently declaring a "united" front against the new government. •Interim president Ahmed al Sharaa appealed for calm and asked Syrians "to be reassured because the country has the fundamentals for survival." IRAN •Pres. Trump said he wrote a letter to Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, proposing a revival of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran. •Khamenei seemed cold on the idea: he complained about "bullying governments" using talks "as a pathway to have new demands." •Pres. Pezeshkian, meanwhile, seemed more open to talks - but noted that Khamenei calls the shots: "My position has been and will remain that I believe in negotiations, but now we have to follow the parameters set by the supreme leader." UKRAINE •A group of civilian and military analysts unveiled a framework for a ceasefire in Ukraine that came out of their spring 2022 meeting in Geneva. Their proposal calls for a six-mile buffer zone along the 700-mile front lines, which would be patrolled by peacekeepers, including foreign troops (the UK and France have offered to send peacekeepers, but Russia rejected the idea). •Meanwhile, Russia is eroding Ukraine's gains in Kursk by pushing Ukrainian front lines back and cutting off supply chains to the ~10,000 Ukrainian troops in Kursk. Ukraine had hoped to use the parts of Kursk it recaptured last year as bargaining chips in a negotiated peace; Russia's recent counter-advance will leave Ukraine with less to offer in a truce. •Separately, Pres. Trump said he was "just about" ready to start sharing intelligence with Ukraine again - now that Ukraine is participating obligingly in peace talks in Saudi. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 March 2025 COMING UP THIS WEEK •U.S. and Ukrainian officials will meet in Saudi Arabia starting tomorrow. Pres. Zelensky is in Saudi and said he was "fully committed" to negotiating an end to the war, but he won't participate in the U.S.-Ukrainian meetings; instead, he'll meet Saudi's Crown Prince MBS for economic talks while his delegates meet U.S. SecState Rubio et al. •Greenland goes to the polls tomorrow. While the question of independence from Denmark isn't directly on the ballot, analysts will be watching results to see if Greenlanders veer towards candidates in favor of greater autonomy for their island. •China, Iran, and Russia will hold joint naval exercises in the northern Indian Ocean this week. Several countries - including Pakistan, Qatar, South Africa, and the UAE - will send observers. COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,706/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,450/ton •Cobalt: $26,960/ton •Copper: $9,614/ton •Gold: $2,901/toz •Lead: $2,019/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.60/MMbtu - a three-year high due to supply constraints and cold weather •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $67.06/barrel •Zinc: $2,887/ton GAZA •France, Germany, Italy, and the UK said they would support Egypt's plan for post-war Gaza; however, that plan still faces significant hurdles: the U.S. and Israel have rejected it - Israel more vehemently than the U.S. - and so far no donors have stepped up to commit the first of the $53 billion needed to fund the plan. •Optimists are hopeful for a second-phase ceasefire agreement this week. Israel sent a delegation to Qatar today "in an effort to advance the negotiations," and Hamas said it has received "positive signals" from the Egyptian and Qatari mediators it's been working with. SYRIA •An independent monitor estimated that over 1,000 people - mostly civilians - have been killed in the past week's clashes between the new government's forces and loyalists to the deposed Assad regime in Latakia. •The Assad loyalists clashing with government troops don't appear to be centrally organized or led; rather, the Institute for the Study of War suggests there are multiple small groups of loyalists each independently declaring a "united" front against the new government. •Interim president Ahmed al Sharaa appealed for calm and asked Syrians "to be reassured because the country has the fundamentals for survival." IRAN •Pres. Trump said he wrote a letter to Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, proposing a revival of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran. •Khamenei seemed cold on the idea: he complained about "bullying governments" using talks "as a pathway to have new demands." •Pres. Pezeshkian, meanwhile, seemed more open to talks - but noted that Khamenei calls the shots: "My position has been and will remain that I believe in negotiations, but now we have to follow the parameters set by the supreme leader." UKRAINE •A group of civilian and military analysts unveiled a framework for a ceasefire in Ukraine that came out of their spring 2022 meeting in Geneva. Their proposal calls for a six-mile buffer zone along the 700-mile front lines, which would be patrolled by peacekeepers, including foreign troops (the UK and France have offered to send peacekeepers, but Russia rejected the idea). •Meanwhile, Russia is eroding Ukraine's gains in Kursk by pushing Ukrainian front lines back and cutting off supply chains to the ~10,000 Ukrainian troops in Kursk. Ukraine had hoped to use the parts of Kursk it recaptured last year as bargaining chips in a negotiated peace; Russia's recent counter-advance will leave Ukraine with less to offer in a truce. •Separately, Pres. Trump said he was "just about" ready to start sharing intelligence with Ukraine again - now that Ukraine is participating obligingly in peace talks in Saudi.
Open source reportOff Leash update Jan 7 North Korea •North Korean state media celebrated yesterday's test-launch with its usual bombastic rhetoric: the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said Kim Jong Un "personally oversaw" the successful test of a new type of intermediate range hypersonic ballistic missile intended to "reliably contain any rivals in the Pacific region." •Though KCNA quoted Kim's reassurance that "this is clearly a plan and effort for self-defence, not an offensive plan and action," the launch was clearly timed to sow fear during U.S. SecState Blinken's visit to South Korea. China •Taiwan detected damage to an undersea internet cable and blamed a ship linked to China. Taiwan quickly restored communications through other channels, but the incident served as a reminder that China's threats loom large over the island's infrastructure. Guantanamo •The U.S. transferred 11 Yemeni detainees from Guantanamo Bay to Oman, where they'll be resettled. •That leaves 15 prisoners remaining at Guantanamo. Three of the 15 are eligible for transfer but - like the Yemenis - come from unstable countries they can't be transferred back to (Somalia, Libya, and Stateless Rohingya Myanmar); the rest are being held indefinitely because they've been convicted / charged or are otherwise ineligible for transfer. Syria •After consultations with Syria's new leadership, the U.S. Treasury Department eased some restrictions on humanitarian aid transfers into the country. •Sanctions remain in place - meaning that weapons and military gear are still prohibited - but NGOs now have a little more leeway to provide basic services like healthcare and sanitation. Other News •As anticipated, Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau tendered his resignation. His Liberal Party will now choose a successor to take his place until a new general election that the strengthening Conservative Party looks likely to win. •The BRICS group of emerging economies formally approved Indonesia's entry to their ranks. •Happy Birthday Joanie!
Open source reportOff Leash update 11 Dec Gaza •Ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas are said to be gaining steam under pressure from Pres.-elect Trump to close a deal soon. [Last week, Trump threatened that there would be "ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East" if hostages weren't released before his inauguration on Jan. 20]. •However, there are no indications that either side has relented on the sticking point that stalled prior talks: Hamas doesn't want to release the rest of its hostages until Israel completely withdraws from Gaza, and Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu has vowed to stay and fight in Gaza until Hamas is evicted from the strip. •Qatar's Prime Minister Al Thani - who is a central mediator between Israel and Hamas - said most of the mechanics of a deal have been worked out, but noted that prospects for an agreement will boil down to whether either side is willing to make concessions to end the war. Syria •Much of deposed Pres. Assad's cabinet stayed on when Assad and his family fled to Moscow, and rebel leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani (who has now rebranded himself "Pres. Ahmed al Shara" on Telegram) met Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi Jalali yesterday to begin transition planning. They jointly appointed Mohammed al-Bashir to form a new transition government. •Al-Golani and Jalili are trying to project an air of normalcy and ensure continuity of government operations, but a UN official said Syria's public sector had come to a "complete and abrupt halt." Many offices remain closed, but overall Syria seems mostly orderly: the only looting taking place is some vengeful trophy hunting from Assad's palaces. •Meanwhile, Israel continued to strike military targets across Syria, but maintains that its ground operations are limited to a demilitarized buffer zone east of the occupied Golan Heights - and intended to prevent advanced weaponry from falling into rebel hands. However, several skeptical Syrian sources say Israeli ground troops have pushed about six miles (10 km) past the buffer zone to the town of Qatana. China •Taiwan reported that China is deploying a massive naval fleet to participate in war games around Taiwan in response to Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te first official trip abroad - which China viewed as a provocation since Lai visited U.S. territory (Hawaii and Guam) and met remotely with U.S. officials. China hasn't yet confirmed plans for military drills. Guyana •Guyana submitted a "final" written brief in its 125-year-old territorial dispute with Venezuela to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), which claims jurisdiction over the case. •The case is likely to drag on for years to come: Venezuela has until Aug. 8 to submit its reply to Guyana's latest brief, and the ICJ will set a date after that for oral arguments to begin. Venezuela •The UN's High Commissioner for Human Rights said his agency has been "able to resume partly our activities" in Venezuela after a hiatus of nearly ten months. The watchdog seems to be investigating the July election Pres. Maduro stole: last week it ordered Maduro's government to refrain from destroying vote tally sheets and other election evidence.
Open source reportOff Leash update 4 Dec China •China responded to a new U.S. ban on exporting certain chip technology to China by announcing its own new ban on exports of select rare minerals - including gallium, germanium, antimony, and superhard minerals (e.g., tungsten) - to the U.S. •This is a significant escalation in the U.S.-China tech rivalry, but it wasn't a complete surprise: China has been slowly introducing a legal framework for such a ban over the past year-ish, and recently experimented with export restrictions on some of affected minerals. •It also won't have a drastic effect on U.S. supply chains: U.S. manufacturers already buy more semi-finished goods than raw materials and have begun to develop alternate sources of the few raw materials still imported from China. South Korea •South Korea's deeply unpopular President Yoon Suk Yeol tried to ram through political gridlock by imposing martial law and banning "all political activities" late last night. •The public and legislature weren't having it, though: amidst widespread peaceful demonstrations against Yoon's decree, the National Assembly voted unanimously - 190 to 0 - to rescind it. Opposition lawmakers are now seeking Yoon's impeachment for treason. Ukraine •NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte urged members of the alliance to boost their military support for Ukraine so Ukraine can "get to a position of strength when...peace talks start." NATO's members are suffering donor fatigue, and many have slowed their support for Ukraine. •Separately, a new Yale University report concluded that Pres. Putin and other senior Russian officials "intentionally and directly" allowed the forced deportation, fostering, and eventual adoption of Ukrainian children from occupied parts of Ukraine - acts that would constitute war crimes. •These aren't new allegations; rather, they buttress the International Criminal Court's (ICC's) case against Putin and his commissioner for children, Maria Lvova-Belova, on related charges. [Russia isn't a member of the ICC and maintains that the adoptions are noble, patriotic gestures to help abandoned Ukrainian children - not war crimes.] Syria •Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russia plans to send Africa Corps (ex-Wagner Group) mercenaries to Syria to bolster Pres. Assad's counteroffensive against Operation Deterrence of Aggression. This has not yet been confirmed or corroborated. Afghanistan •Afghanistan's Taliban government announced a new ban on women studying medicine and midwifery - two of the few remaining fields that were still open to female students. •One of the reasons the medical education loophole remained open to women when they were banned from most other education was that the Taliban also prohibits female patients in some provinces from being treated by male doctors. •Under the new ban, women who are already doctors will probably be allowed to continue practicing, but their ranks will dwindle without a pipeline of new female students to replace those who retire. Venezuela •Eyeing Pres. Trump's threat to slap tariffs on Mexico and Canada if they don't help reduce the flow of illegal immigrants and drug precursors to the U.S., Pres. Maduro proposed a different version of a similar bargain: he said that if the U.S. lifts its sanctions on Venezuela, then "in less than a year, not a single immigrant will go to the U.S." •Maduro has repeatedly tried to blame Venezuela's economic woes - and now migrant flight resulting from those woes - on sanctions, but the truth is that Venezuelan GDP declined in every year from 2013, when Maduro took office, through 2019, when sanctions went into effect. [As with Maduro's election tallies, his official economic statistics tell a different story that lacks numerical support and begs belief.]
Open source reportOff Leash update 2 DEC Coming Up This Week •The UN Convention to Combat Desertification meets in Riyadh today through Dec. 13. •Pres. Biden is in Angola today through Wednesday for what will likely be his last presidential trip abroad. His visit will celebrate the Lobito Corridor - a $1 billion railway built with U.S. support to expand American access to Chinese-dominated critical minerals like Congolese cobalt. •Ghana goes to the polls on Saturday. Former president John Dramani Mahama is favored to win a fresh (non-consecutive) term. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,594/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $33,550/ton •Cobalt: $24,300/ton •Copper: $9,011/ton •Gold: $2,637/toz •Lead: $2,071/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.16/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $68.60/barrel •Zinc: $3,103/ton Syria •Syrian rebels continued to gain ground in Aleppo, capturing its airport and military academy. They now control an estimated half of the city and are encroaching on the outskirts of nearby Hama. •The attacks caught Syrian forces off-guard and they quickly pulled out of Aleppo. Syrian and Russian warplanes are retaliating with an assault on rebel positions in and around the opposition stronghold of Idlib. •Some analysts think Turkey's Pres. Erdogan incited the ongoing uprising to take advantage of an opportunity to gain ground against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) while Pres. Assad's backers are distracted abroad (Russia in Ukraine and Iran and its proxies by wars with Israel). •I wrote last week that one of the main rebel groups in the coalition fighting over Aleppo and Hama - Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) - is aligned with Al Qaeda, but that's inaccurate. Rather, one of HTS's precursors - Nusrah Front - was aligned with Al Qaeda, but severed ties over strategic disagreements in 2016 - one year before it merged with other anti-Assad groups to form HTS. •HTS retains Al Qaeda's Salafi-jihadist ideology, however, and several countries - including the U.S., EU, and Russia - designate HTS a terrorist group. (Turkey does, too, but still backs HTS's coalition partners when they fight the SDF and other Kurds). China •Taiwan's Pres. Lai Ching-te left Saturday for his first international trip as president. He'll visit three of the 12 countries that still officially recognize Taiwan: Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and Palau. •En route - at least geopolitically, though certainly not geographically - Lai will stop over in Hawaii to "make some visits" and "meet with old friends" - i.e., hold closed-door meetings with think tanks, pro-Taiwan expats, and perhaps even current U.S. officials. •It's become customary for Taiwanese presidents to jab at China by paying semi-official visits to the U.S., but Lai's visit to Hawaii isn't quite as provocative as his predecessor Tsai Ing-wen's visits to Los Angeles and New York. Nonetheless, it will irritate China, which analysts expect will retaliate with new military drills around Taiwan while Lai is away. Ukraine •In an interview with Sky News, Pres. Zelensky proposed an unlikely solution to end the war: he said Ukraine could agree to a truce if areas now under Ukrainian control were placed "under the NATO umbrella" with negotiations over areas now under Russian control to follow later. •That's not going to happen: Pres. Putin would reject the idea, and NATO isn't unanimously excited about welcoming any part of Ukraine under its umbrella. Mexico •The NYT profiled an unusual tactic Mexico's cartels are using to build their fentanyl empires: they're recruiting talented university chemistry students to add scientific know-how that improves synthetic drug production, Breaking Bad-style. One professor suspects some students are only enrolling in his chemistry classes to learn how to synthesize drugs - and not for the joy of studying chemistry. Sahel 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 1 November Happy All Saints Day Ukraine •The Pentagon assessed that there are now 8,000 North Korean troops in Russia's Kursk region poised to cross into Ukraine. •Pres. Zelensky is frustrated that his allies have had "zero" response to the threat of North Korean boots on the ground. But he said this on South Korean TV, and may have intended it to entice South Korea to add support for Ukraine's side. •Meanwhile, U.S. diplomats are imploring their Chinese counterparts to talk North Korea into backing out of Ukraine. •That may work: U.S. analysts think China is already uncomfortable with North Korea - which has long depended on China - cozying up to Russia too, and wary that North Korea's involvement in Ukraine will draw the West into meddling in East Asian security concerns. Russia •A Russian court fined Google 20 undecillion rubles ($2.5 decillion) for removing 17 state-run propaganda channels from YouTube after Russia invaded Ukraine. •To put that number into perspective: oGoogle's fine: $2,500,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 oGlobal 2024 GDP forecast: $110,000,000,000,000 (1/23 quadrillionth Google's fine) o2023 Google net profit: $73,700,000,000 (1/33 quintillionth Google's fine) •For even more math fun, the fine doubles daily after the mid-2025 due date. •Given that it would take Google 33 quintillion years of profits to pay the fine at its starting level, Russia clearly doesn't expect payment any time soon: the penalty is effectively a ban on Google operations in Russia. Gaza •Several top U.S. officials are in Cairo pushing for a quick ceasefire agreement before next Tuesday's U.S. election, but Israel seems to want to wait to see who U.S. voters elect before agreeing to a deal. Hamas isn't in a rush either: it prefers to hold out for a permanent ceasefire rather than the temporary truces currently on the table. Iran •Two senior Iranian officials - IRGC deputy commander Gen. Ali Fadavi and the head of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei's office - said Iran plans to respond to Israel's retaliatory strikes, renewing the tit-for-tat cycle. •Following Israel's strikes, initial remarks by Khamenei and Pres. Pezeshkian seemed to suggest Iran would let Israel have the last word. Iran may be reconsidering now that news has spread that Israel's strikes caused more damage than Iranian officials initially let on. Other News •The Botswana Democratic Party - which has governed the southern African country since independence in 1966 - lost its majority for the first time in a surprising electoral rebuke. •Voters blamed the ruling party for economic woes caused by a slowdown in the diamond market, but also criticized some party figures for mismanagement and corruption. •To his credit, Pres. Masisi quickly conceded defeat and promised to ensure a smooth transition to the opposition Umbrella for Democratic Change Party and its president-elect, Duma Boko.
Open source reportOff Leash update 24 Oct North Korea •U.S. intelligence corroborated reports that North Korea is sending soldiers to eastern Russia, but officials stopped short of explicitly concluding that they're training to fight in Ukraine - or perhaps are already fighting in Ukraine (as South Korea and Ukraine credibly allege). •SecDef Austin called the possibility of a North Korean deployment to Ukraine "very, very serious" and cast it as "an indication that [Pres. Putin] may be in even more trouble than most people realize." [Austin continued: "[Putin] went tin-cupping early on to get additional weapons and materials from the DPRK., and then from Iran, and now he’s making a move to get more people."] •North Korea's (alleged) presence in Ukraine could also frustrate China, which has a long friendship with North Korea but wants to be seen as a peacemaker - in opposition to a warmongering West - on the geopolitical stage. The NYT wrote: "The prospect of soldiers from China’s only treaty ally battling Western-backed forces on behalf of one of Beijing’s closest partners undermines that narrative." Turkey •Yesterday, armed attackers stormed the Ankara headquarters of Turkey's national aerospace company, Turkish Aerospace Industries, killing at least five people. The incident was quickly followed by a similar attack on a nearby defense company, Tusaş, that killed four. •Turkey blamed the usual bogeyman, the Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK), and bombed at least 30 PKK-linked "strategic locations" in northern Iraq and Syria. Kurdish officials said Turkey's reprisal airstrikes killed 12 civilians. •The timing was interesting, as Turkey's government has recently been subtly signalling a new willingness to end its 40-year conflict with the PKK. Just a day before the attacks, a far-right party leader allied with Pres. Erdogan publicly suggested that Erdogan could grant the PKK's imprisoned leader, Abdullah Öcalan, parole if he disbanded the PKK and renounced violence. •Öcalan's nephew - who was allowed to visit his uncle in prison for the first time in 43 months on Wednesday, just hours before the Ankara attacks - says Öcalan is open to taking a possible parole-for-peace deal. •That said, some question whether PKK militants would heed Öcalan's call to disband and renounce violence. There's speculation that PKK extremists carried out the Ankara attacks to derail a peace deal. Afghanistan •Taliban Acting Foreign Affairs Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani gave a rare interview with a Western journlist. It was only his second interview with a Western journalist since the Taliban regained power in 2021, and it was with a female journalist (!): the NYT's Afghanistan and Pakistan bureau chief. •Her pair of articles based on this interview and extensive related primary and secondary research and portray Haqqani as a jihadist-turned-diplomat now quietly advocating from within for more moderate policies than hardline Taliban emir Sheikh Haibatullah Akhundzada has decreed. Venezuela •The EU parliament awarded its Sakharov Prize - a prestigious award recognizing dedication to defending human rights and democracy - to Venezuelan opposition figures Maria Corina Machado and Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia. •In awarding the prize, EU parliament president Roberta Metsola reaffirmed the EU legislature's support for the opposition: "This parliament stands with the people of Venezuela and with Maria and Edmundo in their struggle for the democratic future of their country." Mozambique •Mozambique's electoral commission declared Daniel Chapo of the long-ruling Frelimo party the country's president-elect, with 71% of the official vote. •The opposition cried foul, alleging fraud, and a charismatic independent candidate, Venâncio Mondlane, called on supporters to "paralyse the country." [The murder on Saturday of Mr. Mondlane's lawyer - who was preparing a legal appeal of election results - helped fuel suspicions that Frelimo is conspiring against dissenters.]
Open source reportOff Leash update 23 October Hezbollah •Israel confirmed that one of its early October airstrikes on Beirut - analysts believe it was the barrage on Oct. 3 - killed Hashem Safieddine, the cousin and presumed successor to Hassan Nasrallah. •Netanyahu alluded to Safieddine's demise on Oct. 8 when he said Israel had killed "Nasrallah’s replacement, and his replacement’s replacement." •Analysts presume Safieddine was the "replacement," which would mean Israel also believes - though it hasn't confirmed yet - that it has killed Safieddine's replacement. •[I'm not sure who that would be. It's not Naim Qassem, Hezbollah's longtime deputy leader who was initially the rumored successor to Nasrallah: Qassem reportedly fled Lebanon for Iran Oct. 5 after resigning from his position and delivering a shaky recorded speech after Nasrallah's death in which he seemed to feel and fear the target on his back.] •Though leaderless, Hezbollah continued to fire rockets at Tel Aviv for the second consecutive day. Ukraine •South Korea increased its estimate of the number of North Korean troops already fighting for Russia in Ukraine. It now thinks 3,000 North Koreans have arrived on the front lines - of the total 11,000 Pyongyang committed to Russia. •According to a video posted by a Chinese mercenary who's also fighting for Russia in Ukraine, the North Koreans aren't doing very well: the mercenary - who goes by Dian Yuzhan (“prison warden” in Chinese) online - said eight North Korean officers were killed on their very first day of fighting: "goddamn it, they were gone just after entering [the war]." •The Economist noted that while the "erratic and heavily-armed" North Koreans' presence in Ukraine could throw some curveballs for Ukrainian defenders, it's also a sign that Russia has lowered its standards for allies out of desperation: (quoting John Foreman, a former British defense attaché to Russia from 2019-2022) " 'Russia used to look down on North Korea as a pygmy state,' he says. It was the great power 'with Tchaikovsky and Chekhov and ballet…not some bloke with ill-fitting suits in love with artillery and killing people.' " China •Last week, China stoked fears in Taiwan with large-scale military drills in the area, including a simulated blockade. Now it is keeping its threat looming over the island with new live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait. •Separately, India and China said they "reached a solution" over their shared border in the Himalayas, where their soldiers have fought deadly battles with sticks and knives in recent years. •Now with their border tensions deescalated and patrols resumed on both sides of the boundary, Pres. Xi and PM Modi will meet this week on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia. It'll be their first formal bilateral meeting since 2019. •Their broader border dispute remains unresolved, though. This "solution" merely lets both sides maintain their respective (and occasionally mutually exclusive) territorial claims so they can amicably collaborate on initiatives that benefit them both - like trade.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 9 October Middle East •Hezbollah's deputy leader, Naim Qassem, expressed support for a ceasefire during a televised address yesterday. He didn't mention any conditions - not even the group's longstanding demand for an end to the Gaza war as a precondition for a detente (though Qassem did vaguely vow to continue to stand with Hamas and Palestinians against Israel). •U.S. officials assessed that Qassem's eagerness for a truce shows that Hezbollah is "getting battered" and considering acknowledging defeat. •Separately, Israel targeted a Hezbollah weapons smuggler with an airstrike on a residential building in Damascus's embassy district, killing seven (it's not clear if the target was among those killed). •Israel is still contemplating its options for responding to Iran's (largely-ineffective) ballistic missile strikes last week. PM Netanyahu will speak with Pres. Biden by phone today to discuss Israel's plans. •Iran is girding for a harsh response. Its diplomats have been warning Gulf countries against letting their airspace or military bases be used in an attack on Iran. Mexico •Mexico's new president, AMLO protege Claudia Sheinbaum, unveiled her plan to combat worsening cartel violence yesterday, and analysts were unimpressed. Critics of the plan say it's only a continuation of AMLO's "hugs not bullets" approach that failed to reverse the rise in violence. Russia •It's not just U.S. elections that Russia is seeking to disrupt: the head of the UK's domestic security service (MI5), Ken McCallum, said Russian spies are also trying to "generate mayhem on British and European streets" with acts of "arson, sabotage, and more." •McCallum said over 750 Russian diplomats - "the great majority of them spies" - have been booted from Europe since Russia invaded Ukraine. With its professional troublemakers benched, Moscow then resorted to hiring private operatives and common criminals for its EU missions, McCallum added. He blamed their work for driving a 48% rise in MI5 investigations into state-sponsored operations against the UK in 2023. •McCallum noted that Iran and China are also actively supporting plots in the UK, but not as vigorously as Russia is - and China's operations are primarily focused on targeting dissidents abroad. China •China announced new penalties on European brandy in response to tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) that the EU approved last week. •Beijing argues that EU brandy producers are dumping their tipples in the Chinese market at below-market prices - akin to how China is dumping cheap EVs in the European market at prices lower prices than domestic EV makers can tolerate. •China's new measures are structured in a way that gives the EU a chance to back down on its EV tariffs first: the Ministry of Commerce will temporarily collect deposits of up to 39% on EU brandy imports, but if it makes the penalties permanent then those deposits will be forfeited, effectively becoming tariff payments. •The European Commission plans to challenge China's retaliatory measures at the World Trade Organization. North Korea •Pyongyang announced plans to "permanently" sever road and rail links with South Korea and fortify its border regions. •Road and rail travel between the two Koreas has been cut off for years, so the North's gesture is largely a symbolic indicator that strengthening U.S.-South Korea military collaboration is raising Kim Jong Un's blood pressure. •Separately, Ukrainian media reported that six North Korean soldiers fighting for Russia were killed in a Ukrainian missile strike near Donetsk last week. •South Korea's Defense Minister told parliament that it's "highly likely" that North Korean soldiers are indeed fighting on Russia's side in Ukraine under the mutual defense pact Russia and North Korea signed - though this is still unconfirmed.
Open source reportOff Leash update 4 Sept Venezuela •In a bid to distract Venezuelans while he tries to steal the presidency, Pres. Maduro announced that Christmas in Venezuela will take place almost three months early this year, on October 1. •Maduro has pre-poned Christmas twice before - in 2021 and 2023 - both to boost the economy by injecting bonuses for public employees and holiday handouts for supporters. This year's early holiday will bring the added benefit of rewarding loyal supporters for turning a blind eye to his election theft. •Cynical Venezuelans complain that holding Christmas early won't make it any merrier: either way, they can't afford gifts or holiday feasts because of runaway inflation under Maduro's bad economic policies. •The Venezuelan Episcopal Conference also wasn't joyous about the date change: it issued a statement reiterating that "Christmas commences on December 25" and chiding that Jesus's birthday "is not to be used for political or propaganda goals." Ukraine •Russia targeted a Ukrainian military academy and nearby hospital in Poltava, killing at least 51 people - including many cadets. •Poltava is around 100 miles (160 km) from the Russian border, and the supersonic missiles flew so fast that air raid sirens sounded only minutes before the attack, giving cadets and residents insufficient time to reach shelter. Many of those killed were on their way to a shelter when they were struck down. •More Russian missiles struck the city of Lviv on the Polish border overnight, killing at least seven. •Separately, Foreign Minister Kuleba resigned as part of Pres. Zelensky's reshuffle to "strengthen some areas in the government" ahead of "an extremely important autumn." Rumors suggest Kuleba will be replaced by Andriy Sybiha, a career diplomat who's currently the deputy head of Zelensky's office. Gaza •The U.S. Justice Department unsealed indictments charging Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and five other senior Hamas members for a wide range of crimes against American citizens, including - but also predating - the Oct. 7 attacks. •The charges are mostly symbolic - and three of those indicted are already dead anyway - but the indictments would allow the U.S. to put Sinwar and the other two on trial if they survive the war and are apprehended. China •China retaliated against Canada's new tariffs on cheap Chinese electric vehicle (EV) exports by launching a dumping inquiry into Canadian rapeseed (canola), which is a far more important export market for Canada than EVs. Over half of Canada's exported canola goes to China, earning Canada C$5 billion ($3.7 billion) in sales. Ottawa called the probe "deeply concerning." •Separately, New York accused an ex-gubernatorial aide of acting as a foreign agent for China by accepting Chinese money for political favors like denying Taiwanese officials meetings with the governor and other officials. Iraq •U.S. and Iraqi commandos carried out an unusual joint raid on Islamic State militants hiding out in Anbar, killing at least 15 jihadists - including some senior leaders. At least six U.S. soldiers suffered injuries. Libya •Libya's rival legislatures agreed to appoint a mutually agreeable candidate to lead the central bank within 30 days, raising hope for an end to the bank's leadership crisis. •Oil markets are optimistic that they'll resolve their dispute and Libya will start pumping oil again: oil prices fell 4% on weak demand and the prospect of Libyan oil reentering an already-oversupplied market. Other News •Romania, Hungary, Georgia, and Azerbaijan kicked off an ambitious project to lay a power line under the Black Sea to bring energy from Azerbaijan's Caspian wind farms to the EU. •The project was approved in 2022 and became urgent quickly after Russia invaded Ukraine, forcing the EU to seek alternate energy supplies.
Open source reportOff Leash update 28 Aug Venezuela •Venezuela's opposition called for a fourth round of mass demonstrations at 11 am Caracas time today to demand recognition of its victory in the election that happened exactly one month ago. •Pres. Maduro refuses to give up his claim that he won the vote - and also refuses to provide proof. Meanwhile, the opposition has offered online tallies confirming its candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez, won more than twice as many votes as Maduro (a figure aligned with exit polls). •Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado attended the first three major rallies of the past month, and will likely participate today too - despite the threat of being arrested and locked up alongside thousands of Venezuelans that Maduro's goons have detained for infractions as minor as questioning election results on social media. •Separately, Maduro introduced "profound" changes to his cabinet last night. He shuffled about half of his ministers, but in a way that won't meaningfully affect policy: he rewarded diehard loyalists like VP Delcy Rodriguez and PSUV party leader Diosdado Cabello with expanded roles, and rotated some other allies between key positions. Iran •Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, revived long-shot hopes for new nuclear talks with the U.S. by telling his civilian government - now led by reformist president Masoud Pezeshkian - that there's "no harm" in engaging the "enemy." •Analysts interpreted Khamenei's cautious remarks as hesitant approval for Pezeshkian to proceed with early talks - but under strict red lines drawn out of distrust for "the Great Satan" (as Khamenei and his predecessor dub the U.S. - the UK and Israel are both "Little Satans"). Israel and Gaza •Israeli security forces conducted a significant drone and ground "counter-terrorism operation" in the West Bank, killing at least nine. It was one of the biggest West Bank operations in recent years. •There are conflicting reports about the circumstances of Israel's hostage rescue this week. A military spokesman said "precise intelligence" led commandos to Farhan al Qadi's location in a deep underground tunnel, but anonymous Israeli officials told the media that soldiers unexpectedly stumbled upon al Qadi - weak and unguarded - in the midst of a separate tunnel operation. Ukraine •Pres. Zelensky said he was open to discussing an armistice - first with Pres. Biden and VP Harris, and then with Russia. •Zelensky indicated that Ukraine's recent incursion into Kursk was part of a possible peace plan he's angling for: Ukrainian forces captured both troops and territory that can be traded back to Russia - for a price. Yemen •The Sounion tanker Yemen's Houthis set ablaze last week may be leaking some of the 1 million barrels of oil it was carrying. The Houthis have continued to intimidate and target salvage operations, prohibiting rescuers from examining the situation. China •Earlier today, leaders of Pacific Island nations approved an Australia-backed plan to establish four regional police training centers and a multinational force to respond to regional crises. •China opposed the plan and advocated against it: Beijing wants island nations to rely on it - and not Australia or its Western allies - for security. DRC •In July, Gecamines - a DRC mining parastatal - objected to the proposed sale of Chemaf's copper-cobalt mines to China's Norin Mining on the grounds that the transaction would be a "flagrant violation of the clauses of the farm-out contract between Gecamines and Chemaf" - i.e., it would recalibrate the royalties Gecamines gets from the Etoile and Mutoshi projects for doing nothing. •DRC's ministers are now standing behind Gecamines: Mines Minister Kizito Pakabomba also said the deal breached Chemaf's agreements with Gecamines, and on Friday the full council of ministers recommended blocking the sale.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 23 Aug Ukraine •According to Ukraine's commander-in-chief, Gen. Syrsky, Ukrainian troops have now advanced as far as 35 km into Kursk. •Russia has shifted some troops from Chasiv Yar to defend against the Kursk invasion, but the operation hasn't diverted Russian forces away from Ukrainian front lines as much as Ukraine hoped it would. •Russia still has the upper hand in Pokrovsk, for example, and Ukrainian troops there just withdrew to avoid being encircled. •Last week, German prosecutors issued an arrest warrant for a Ukrainian allegedly involved in the 2022 attacks sabotaging the Nord Stream pipelines. Now German anger at the possibility that Ukraine was behind the attacks is morphing into new scrutiny of German support for Ukraine. •Chancellor Scholz insisted that Germany remains "Ukraine's biggest national supporter in Europe," but his unpopular ruling coalition is facing popular and fiscal pressure to reduce its overall spending - as well as its spending on Ukraine. Venezuela •Venezuela's Supreme Tribunal of Justice - which Pres. Maduro stacked with supporters - unsurprisingly ruled in his favor and certified his fraudulent election victory. •The court said its ruling was based on "national and international experts" and was "supported by the tally reports issued by each of the vote machines" - though the vast majority of "international experts" are certainly not on Maduro's side (save a few Chinese techs that are helping Maduro steal the vote), and neither Maduro nor the court has released any tally reports to support their claims. •The opposition, meanwhile, has released online tallies showing that its candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez, won seven million votes to Maduro's three million. The court said the opposition's tallies were forged. Afghanistan •Afghan women lost their figurative voices when the Taliban took over in 2021; now they're losing their voices in a more literal way - and losing other rights, too. A new 114-page Taliban document now forbids women from talking loudly (even inside their own homes), singing or reading the Koran in public, or merely looking at men they don't know. •The new edict also forbids Afghan men from trimming their beards. •One Afghan former civil servant told The Telegraph: "The international community’s engagement with the Taliban has emboldened them to further suppress women," and that seems plausible. •In a further sign of international engagement with the Taliban, the UAE officially accepted a Taliban ambassador today. That makes the UAE the second country - after China - to legitimize the Taliban government by accepting its ambassador.
Open source reportOff Leash update 18 June Russia •Russia's Pres. Putin began an unannounced two-day trip to North Korea today. He's hoping to strengthen his friendship with one of the few world leaders still willing to send him weapons, and Kim Jong Un is hoping Putin will lend Russian assistance to North Korea's nascent satellite surveillance programs. •Both Russia and North Korea deny that they are arms trading, but Putin proclaimed that they are building "alternative mechanisms of trade" that aren't "controlled by the West" (i.e., subject to sanctions). •This was Putin's second trip to North Korea. His first - in 2000 - was the first time a Russian president visited the Hermit Kingdom. North Korea •While strengthening ties with Putin's Russia, Kim has been aggravating tensions with his southern neighbor. South Korean officials say North Korean soldiers have been laying mines and installing anti-tank barriers along the demilitarized border that divides the two Koreas since January. •South Korea reported firing warning shots earlier today to repel 20-30 North Korean soldiers who temporarily crossed over the border while building a barrier. Their incursion seemed accidental and they did not return fire. China •China opened an anti-dumping investigation into EU pork imports that analysts widely see as a retaliation for the EU's new tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs). •Beijing is likely targeting EU pork instead of a perfectly reciprocal levy on EU EVs because a tariff on EU-made EVs would also harm the Chinese brands making cars in Europe. •Meanwhile, the U.S. sided with the Philippines in its latest spat with China over Chinese bullying in the South China Sea. The U.S. called China "aggressive" for seizing two Philippine supply boats after colliding with a third one, and U.S. diplomats reiterated a warning that a 1951 treaty obligates the U.S. to defend the Philippines in case of an armed attack. Ukraine •A Ukrainian drone targeted one of Russia's two oil terminals in the southern port city of Azov, igniting a large fire. Hezbollah •While SecState Blinken tries to keep hope for an Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal alive, another senior U.S. envoy - White House adviser Amos Hochstein - is visiting Lebanon to lobby for an agreement between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah to end their cycle of tit-for-tack strikes over the border. •Hezbollah has linked its strikes to Israel's war in Gaza, so it would be unlikely to agree to a truce before the Gaza war ends.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 13 June Ukraine •G7 leaders are reportedly close to agreeing on a compromise that would lend Ukraine around $50 billion now to rebuild destroyed infrastructure - and repay the loan over time using interest from frozen Russian funds. Ukraine will need much more than $50 billion to rebuild. •As part of its fundraising efforts, Ukraine announced a new plan to auction off around 20 state-owned companies - including the landmark Hotel Ukraine in Kyiv, as well as some mining and chemical companies. The proceeds would plug some of the gaping hole in Ukraine's budget. Russia •Russia responded to new U.S. sanctions by announcing an immediate ban on trading in dollars or euros on its main bourse, the Moscow Exchange (MOEX). •The ban won't really matter because most MOEX traders have already switched from dollars or euros to Chinese yuan. As one Russian commodities trader told Reuters: "We don't care [about the ban], we have yuan. Getting dollars and euros in Russia is practically impossible." •Meanwhile, four Russian navy vessels arrived in Havana harbour, in what the BBC called "a show of force amid tensions with the West over the war in Ukraine." Cuban officials were quick to clarify that none of the boats have any weapons aboard. The U.S. is monitoring them anyway. China •After an EU investigation concluded that government subsidies give Chinese electric vehicle (EV) makers an unfair competitive advantage over European manufacturers, the EU proposed a plan to level the playing field by imposing new tariffs of up to 38% on cheap Chinese EV imports. •China decried the EU's decision and urged the bloc to reverse its "wrong direction" on tariffs, but the reality is that Chinese EVs are so much cheaper than EU competitors that even a 38% tariff won't make up the difference: in 1H 2023, the average retail price of a Chinese EV was $33,000 vs. $70,700 in Europe. •[U.S. 1H 2023 EV prices were roughly in line with the EU's at $72,000, and the U.S. has since slapped a stiffer, 100% tariff on imported Chinese EVs.] Yemen •Yemen's Houthis used a "drone boat" - along with aerial drones and ballistic missiles - to attack a Liberian-flagged, Greek-owned bulk carrier, the Tutor. The Tutor's captain later reported that "the vessel is taking on water, and not under command of the crew" after a second impact. DRC •DRC's new government - including its first-ever female prime minister - was sworn in yesterday after months of delays due to disagreements over appointments. South Africa •South Africa's top court rejected an appeal by ex-Pres. Zuma's new MK party that sought to stop Zuma's former African National Congress (ANC) party - and his political rival, Pres. Ramaphosa - from forming a government. •According to preliminary indications, the Democratic Alliance (DA) and Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) have already agreed to join the ANC's national unity government, bringing it over the majority it needed. •That government is expected to re-elect Pres. Ramaphosa tomorrow. Other News •The NYT reported that Saudi Arabia is on the verge of approving a plan to invest up to $2 billion in a hostile takeover of the disorganized array of global professional men's boxing promoters and sanctioning bodies. •The consultant-advised plan would see today's confused tangle of boxing organizations brought together under a single entity representing around 200 top male boxers in a model similar to that of the UFC, which has steadily stolen fightsport fans away from boxing.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 6 June Gaza •Israel and Hamas are reportedly still far from agreement on the terms of the latest U.S. ceasefire proposal. Indirect talks continue in Qatar. •Meanwhile, Israel launched a new operation against Hamas in Bureij and Deir al Balah, central Gaza. Israeli forces are hunting Hamas militants "above and below ground," including at a site that Israel says was a Hamas compound hidden in a school. Gaza's health ministry claimed Israel's strike on the school killed 27 people seeking shelter there - not Hamas militants. •A NYT investigation found that Israel planned and funded an ongoing social media campaign to influence U.S. lawmakers to support the war in Gaza by planting pro-war posts by fake "American" users. •Israel's campaign was among the AI-based influence operations Meta and OpenAI recently said had targeted their platforms over the past six months [Russia, Iran, and China also ran similar campaigns.] Both companies said none of the foreign influence campaigns had a widespread impact. Russia •Pres. Putin lashed out at Western countries - especially Germany - for allowing Ukraine to use their donated weapons to strike targets inside Russia. •The U.S. and UK have also given Russia permission to use their weapons to strike Russia, although the U.S. only ok'ed strikes on Russian regions near Kharkiv. •He warned that Russia would reciprocate in kind: "If someone thinks it possible to send such weapons to a war zone to strike our territory and create problems for us, then why do we not have the right to send our weapons of the same class to those regions of the world where strikes can be made on sensitive facilities of the countries that do this against Russia?" •[I would note that Russia was the first to use foreign-supplied weapons in cross-border attacks: it uses North Korean missiles and Iranian drones in Ukraine.] •I highly doubt Russia would consider direct strikes on German, American, or British soil because of the risk of igniting WWIII. Rather, Putin will probably try to target Western assets or personnel in Ukraine. Iran •The UN's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) voted 20-2 (with 12 abstentions) to approve a resolution rebuking Iran for refusing to give IAEA inspectors access to its nuclear sites. •The two no votes were cast by Russia - which buys Iranian drones to use in Ukraine - and China - which circumvents sanctions to buy cheap Iranian oil. •The IAEA censure resolution isn't enforceable, but the fact that 20 countries voted to approve it may add a tiny bit of political pressure on Iran to cooperate with inspectors. (Unlikely) Venezuela •Pres. Maduro uninvited European Union observers from monitoring his farcical July 28 presidential election on hyperbolic grounds that EU compliance with "genocidal sanctions" on Venezuela is "interventionist." •The EU hadn't accepted Maduro's invitation anyway. •Plus, observers don't need to fly to Venezuela to conclude that the election won't be fair: Maduro is already manipulating the vote by bullying the opposition and blocking its strongest candidates from running against him. Other News •A lone gunman wearing a vest labeled "Islamic State" in Arabic and "IS" in English opened fire near the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon. He was quickly shot and arrested. Islamic State hasn't officially claimed the attack yet.
Open source reportOff Leash update May 16 Ukraine •Analysts are worried about Russia's rapid recent advances along multiple fronts in Ukraine - including two lines of attack in the north near Kharkiv. •The situation is dire enough that Pres. Zelensky postponed his upcoming foreign trips to focus on countering the incursions. •The NYT speculated that Russia's real goal in the north could be to draw Ukraine's forces away from other fronts to reinforce Kharkiv, leaving a thin front line that Russia can assault in another offensive next month. China •Presidents Putin and Xi began two days of meetings in Beijing by celebrating their countries' partnership as "one of the main stabilising factors on the international arena." •They're expected to discuss economic cooperation and the war in Ukraine - in particular, Putin hopes to find ways to expand China's supply of dual-use goods for his war (which Beijing justifies in the name of "safeguarding regional and global security and stability"). •Meanwhile, China vowed to retaliate against new U.S. tariffs on electric vehicles (EVs) and other novel technologies with "resolute measures" - perhaps including countertariffs, restrictions on tech exports, or boycotts of unrelated but important U.S. imports like soybeans. •China may also seek ways to evade the new tariffs. For example, Chinese EV maker BYD previously said it was considering opening new factories in Mexico to build cars for the Mexican market, and U.S. policymakers are concerned it - and other Chinese manufacturers - could use Mexican plants as a backdoor to reach the U.S. market without paying tariffs. U.S. Trade Representative Tai hinted that her office is contemplating additional penalties on tariff evaders. •Separately, China sent dozens of armed ships to block unarmed Filipino demonstrators from asserting their country's claim to the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea. The protesters have the tacit support of their government in Manila, while Beijing hopes that by stymying their demonstration it can legitimize its claim to the atoll. Gaza •Yoav Gallant - Israel's defense minister and a perpetual thorn in PM Netanyahu's side - called on Netanyahu to present a "day-after" plan for running Gaza after the war ends. Netanyahu immediately rejected the idea of committing to a long-run plan while Hamas is still in power, calling it "detached from reality." •U.S. Central Command announced that it anchored the floating pier that will receive humanitarian aid for Gaza. Its first aid shipments - including a UK shipment of 8,400 temporary shelters - are already en route. Other News •Slovakia's PM Robert Fico survived an assassination attempt that appears to have been politically motivated. Fico began his political career in the Communist Party, but has drifted to the right over the course of his three terms as PM, and now has stronger ties with Hungary's PM Orban and Russia's Pres. Putin than some of his pro-European constituents are comfortable with.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 15 May China •The U.S. slapped tariffs on cheap Chinese electronics - including electric vehicles (EVs), solar equipment and batteries - to ensure that domestic production can compete with "unfairly under-priced" Chinese goods in an election year. The tariff rate for inexpensive (but high quality) Chinese EVs like BYD's will quadruple to 100%. And China will probably retaliate. •The Biden administration also ordered a Chinese-linked cryptocurrency mining operation conspicuously located near a U.S. Air Force base that operates nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missiles to shut down within 90 days and sell the land it was working from within 120 days over surveillance risks. •Concerns over the Chinese crypto operation are probably well founded: Microsoft had gone out of its way to warn counterespionnage officials that the operation could allow China to "pursue full-spectrum intelligence collection operations." •Separately, the UK charged three men accused of spying for Hong Kong on Monday, and yesterday its Foreign Office summoned the Chinese ambassador to discuss the arrest and a "recent pattern of behaviour directed by China against the UK, including cyber-attacks, reports of espionage links and the issuing of bounties" (China runs Hong Kong as a special administrative region). •Russia announced that Pres. Putin will visit China this Thursday and Friday. Under their "no limits" friendship, Russia provides cheap energy to China, and China supports (or at least doesn't oppose) Russia's war in Ukraine. The Economist pointed out that Pres. Xi has met (either virtually or one-on-one in person) with Putin over 40 times since 2013 - which is more than twice as many meetings as he's held with leaders of any other country in that time. Gaza •The UN switched to a new, more conservative system for reporting casualties in Gaza, and it resulted in a near-halving of reported deaths of women and children: from 24,000 to 12,756. That's not because the UN confirmed the rest were still alive, though; it's just waiting until more information emerges from the fog of war before it confirms the remaining ~10,000 dead. •The U.S. told Congress it will send Israel another $1 billion in arms - including $700 million of tank rounds, $500 million of tactical vehicles, and $60 million of mortar rounds. It's the first planned weapons transfer to Israel since a shipment of bigger arms was put on hold last week over Israel's planned operations in Rafah (the shipment that will proceed is of smaller arms than the one that was paused). •Meanwhile, right-wing Israeli protesters in the West Bank disrupted Palestinian aid shipments heading to Gaza, ransacking several trucks and setting fire to at least one of them. Other drivers carrying much-needed aid to Gaza said they feared for their safety while carrying out deliveries. Russia •Russia arrested a second senior defense official on bribery charges: Lt. Gen. Yury Kuznetsov - who heads the Defense Ministry's main personnel directorate - is accused of accepting an "exceptionally large bribe" when he was in charge of the military General Staff's directorate responsible for preserving state secrets. His bribes apparently didn't stay secret. •Kuznetsov's was the second big ousting in Putin's defense leadership this week, after Defense Secretary Shoigu's demotion. Shoigu had a much softer landing and will enjoy a cushy new gig on the National Security Council, but Kremlin insiders leaked that Putin privately upbraided him for the military's failures in Ukraine under his command. Ukraine •SecState Blinken is on a surprise visit to Kyiv and met Pres. Zelensky yesterday to reassure him of continued U.S. support after a delay in passing the latest military aid package weakened Ukrainian defenses and confidence. •Zelensky pleaded with Blinken for more air defenses - "two Patriots for Kharkiv" - to help stop Russian advances in the north.
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 May Gaza Pres. Netanyahu was displeased with Pres. Biden's threat to stop sending certain highly destructive weapons to Israel if Israel launches a full-scale invasion of Rafah (even though Israel appears to have toned down its ambitions for Rafah to a smaller-scale operation that probably won't cross Biden's red line) Netanyahu - who must appease hardliners - insisted Israel could (theoretically) carry out the full-scale plan alone: "If we need to stand alone, we will stand alone...if necessary we will fight with our fingernails." It probably will not be necessary. Ukraine and Russia Ukrainian drones struck two oil depots and a refinery deep inside Russia over the past 24 hours: one was over 700 miles (1,100 km) inside the border. An oil expert estimated to the NYT that the attacks incapacitated over 10% of Russia's refining capacity - though given the importance of oil to Russia's war funding and foreign earnings, it'll surely be rebuilt quickly. During Pres. Xi's visit to Hungary, nationalist president Orban enthusiastically endorsed China's 12-point peace plan for Ukraine. The Chinese plan was released to great fanfare over a year ago (Feb. 2023) but has failed to gain much traction: Hungary is the only European country to endorse it. China's promise to invest in building a BYD electric vehicle production plant in southern Hungary may have helped secure Orban's support. Separately, EU member states agreed to a plan to use the proceeds (e.g. interest) from Russian central bank funds frozen in European banks to augment Ukraine's defenses and fund post-war reconstruction. Those proceeds are expected to free up about €3 billion ($3.3 billion) per year. Sudan Human Rights Watch accused the Rapid Support Forces and its (mostly Arab) allies of genocide against the (non-Arab) Massalit in El Geneina, West Darfur. The report called for an investigation and an arms embargo on Sudan. Sahel Chad's military ruler and incumbent interim president, Mahamat Idriss Déby, was declared the winner of a very predictable election after sidelining rivals - lethally in one case. The opposition cried foul.
Open source reportOff Leash update 2 May Gaza and Israel •Speaking in Tel Aviv, SecState Blinken told reporters the U.S. "cannot, will not, support a major military operation in Rafah absent an effective plan to make sure that civilians are not harmed — and no, we’ve not seen such a plan." •He also nudged Hamas to accept the peace deal currently on the table, which would trade 33 hostages for a six-week ceasefire and some Palestinian prisoners. •Hamas officials told Lebanese media they're "negative" on the current proposal but willing to keep talking as long as Israel doesn't start its Rafah operation. •Separately, Colombia's leftist president, Gustavo Petro, severed diplomatic ties with Israel over its war in Gaza and called the Israeli government "genocidal." Colombia is the third American country to cut ties with Israel: Bolivia and Belize did so in November. Russia •The U.S. accused Russia of using the chemical choking agent chloropicrin on the battlefield in Ukraine, which would be a violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention. Russia called the allegations "baseless." China •The U.S. slapped sanctions on almost 300 companies and groups - including around 20 in China and Hong Kong - that it accuses of supplying Russia's war in Ukraine. China complained about the "illegal unilateral sanctions," which both SecState Blinken and Treasury Secretary Yellen had warned Beijing were coming. •The Solomon Islands solidified its loyalty to China by electing another pro-China prime minister, Jeremiah Manele. Manele was foreign minister when the Pacific nation switched its diplomatic allegiance from Taiwan to China, and has pledged to strengthen the country's opaque security pact with China as PM. •A highway in Guangdong collapsed after heavy rainfall, killing at least 48 people. Pres. Xi ordered local authorities to respond to the disaster quickly to save lives and ensure "overall social stability" - lest residents complain about a weak governmental response. Afghanistan •The Special Inspector General for the Reconstruction of Afghanistan's latest report said Islamic State-Khorasan is leveraging instability in Afghanistan to ramp up its recruitment there, and warned that the group's "resurgence" could lead to more attacks abroad - like its assault on a Russian concert hall in March and its bombing in Iran in January, which both killed over 100.
Open source reportOff Leash update 1 May Russia •Finland's national airline, Finnair, reported that some of its recent flights were interrupted because of radar jams hear the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. •Russia seems to be responsible for the jams, but - as The Economist explains - its interference is probably more defensive than nefarious: Kaliningrad is heavily militarized, and the jams are probably designed to scramble Ukrainian attack drones targeting Russian military sites there. Gaza •SecState Blinken will meet PM Netanyahu and other top Israeli officials today, and is expected to press them to speed up aid shipments to Gaza. •Blinken and other diplomats have been encouraging Israel to stall its ground invasion of Rafah to improve odds for a ceasefire deal, but Netanyahu reaffirmed that the Rafah operation will go ahead "with or without" a deal. •Separately, the UN's International Court of Justice rejected Nicaragua's case against Germany for shipping weapons to Israel. China •China's latest and most advanced aircraft carrier, the Fujian, left the Jiangnan Shipyard for its first sea trials. Following the trials, the 80,000-ton Fujian will become the third carrier in China's fleet, after the 66,000-ton Shandong and the 60,000-ton Liaoning. Haiti •Haiti's new transitional council selected little-known former sports minister Fritz Bélizaire to be the country's new interim prime minister as it tries to root out gangs and establish a stable government. •Bélizaire replaced Michel Patrick Boisvert, who became interim PM only last week when the council formally took over from ousted (and unelected) PM Henry. •Bélizaire may not last long either: he only won the support of four of the council's nine members, and the other five indicated they didn't know him well enough to appoint him. DRC •UN peacekeepers ended operations in South Kivu for good this week, leaving MONUSCO active in only North Kivu and Ituri provinces - which are currently facing worse violence than South Kivu. By the end of the year, the UN's longest and costliest peacekeeping mission will fully wind down and exit DRC. Sahel •Mali said its forces - along with Tuareg fighters - killed Islamic State commander Abu Huzeifa (aka Higgo), who planned the 2017 attack that killed four U.S. troops in Tongo Tongo, Niger. •The operation took place in Liptako, which is where the porous borders of three junta-run countries - Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger - meet. •Its success is a strategic win for the three juntas, who recently banded together (with Russian support) to form the anti-extremist Alliance of Sahel States after they were evicted from the regional ECOWAS bloc following their coups. Sudan •Amidst the looming spectre of a second genocide in Darfur, the U.S. asked the UAE and other allies to stop arming the Rapid Support Forces. (The UAE insists it "is not supplying any arms or ammunition to any faction engaged in the ongoing conflict in Sudan," but evidence suggests it actually is.) Yemen •Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels claimed a drone strike on a container ship in the Red Sea on Friday, and yesterday authorities confirmed their claim. •The ship they struck was the Portuguese-flagged MSC Orion, and this was their longest-range confirmed strike yet: it occurred around 375 miles (600 km) off the coast of Yemen. •The Orion sustained only minor damage and continued its voyage. Afghanistan •Islamic State (IS) claimed Monday's attack at a Shia mosque in Herat that killed six, including the imam. IS is the main instigator of anti-Shia attacks in Afghanistan, so its claim wasn't a surprise. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 4/22 -The Philippines and the U.S. begin annual joint military exercises today, but this time the exercises take place far from Philippine territorial waters in a part of the central South China Sea claimed by China. Though international law allows the exercises to take place there, China will see them as a provocation. -Passover begins at sundown today and ends at sundown next Tuesday. North Macedonia votes for president on Wednesday. U.S. SecState Blinken will visit China this week with a warning to Beijing to stop Chinese companies from helping Russia make military hardware. -Commodity Prices Aluminum: $2,669/ton Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $14,200/ton Cobalt: $27,830/ton Copper: $9,876/ton Gold: $2,337/toz Lead: $2,219/ton Natural Gas (Nymex): $1.77/MMbtu WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $82.77/barrel Zinc: $2,852/ton -Iran and Israel Both Iran and Israel seem to be standing down after their tit-for-tat exchange of unprecedented direct strikes last week. Iran downplayed Israel's drone strike on Friday and seems content to let it be the last shot in this volley. Israel's Friday strike hit a defensive battery near some of Iran's most important nuclear infrastructure. Western officials said Israel's objective was to show that it could penetrate Iranian defenses undetected - and it apparently did on Friday. Some Israeli media reports suggest Israel used a supersonic "Rampage" missile in that final strike on Friday. Neither Israel nor Iran are confirming those reports: Iranian officials are happy to let the public believe the foreign minister's comment that the weapons deployed agaisnt Isfahan were "like toys our children play with" rather than a high-tech, 1,250 lb (567 kg) missile. Separately, Iraq's pro-Iran Popular Mobilisation Forces accused the U.S. of striking one of its bases near Baghdad, killing one militant -Gaza The U.S. is reportedly planning to slap sanctions on the Israel Defence Forces' Netzah Yehuda Battalion for alleged human rights violations it committted in the West Bank. PM Netanyahu vowed to "fight" the sanctions, which would suspend U.S. funding and training for the unit. Israel's head of military intelligence, Aharon Haliva, became the first senior official to resign over the failure to foresee and prevent Hamas's Oct. 7 attacks. The attacks happened over six months ago, but as protests against PM Netanyahu's handling of the war grow, critics want heads to roll. Ukraine -Sadly after much delay and politicking, the U.S. House approved a long-stalled $95 billion foreign aid bill for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. Ukraine celebrated the news: $61 billion of the total is earmarked for it, including $14 billion for weapons. The Kremlin warned that the bill's passage would "further ruin" Ukraine. -Venezuela Saturday was the deadline for swapping candidates on the ballot for Venezuela's July presidential election. The opposition had hoped to put its unity leader, Maria Corina Machado, on the ballot, but she's still barred from running under a politically-motivated technicality, so all 10 parties in the main opposition coalition aligned behind a relatively unknown former diplomat, Edmundo González, as their candidate. -Myanmar Recently-united rebel groups are rapidly retaking territory from government forces in Myanmar. Rebels now control over half the country. China The Maldives' pro-China ruling People's National Congress (PNC) party won a decisive victory in this weekend's parliamentary elections, with enough seats to secure an outright majority. The PNC's leader, incumbent president Muizzu, steered the country closer to China but has been restrained by a pro-India party's control of the legislature. Now that the PNC controls the legislature too, we'll likely see the Maldives pivot more sharply towards China. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash Update 18 April Israel and Iran •According to NYT interviews after the fact, Israel didn't expect its April 1 strike on an Iranian embassy complex in Damascus to lead to the escalation that unfolded from it, and didn't even warn the U.S. about it until moments before it happened. •That now seems like a severe miscalculation: Israel failed to recognize that Iran's decision-making - like Israel's own - is influenced by hardliners who will reliably demand retribution at least as severe as the offense it avenges. •Israel's allies are urging it in the other direction: UK Foreign Secretary (and ex-PM) David Cameron and German Foreign Minister Annelena Baerbock both visited Israel to encourage a diplomatic response to Iran's weekend strikes instead of a military one. •PM Netanyahu seemed unmoved by the overtures: both Cameron and Baerbock assessed that Israel still intends to retaliate militarily, and after the meetings Netanyahu reasserted that Israel would prioritize its own interests and "do everything necessary to defend itself." •That said, the Israeli response may be limited. Israel's Arab neighbors say Israel has signalled it will restrict its retaliation to striking additional Iran-linked facilities in Syria, and pledged its response to Iran wouldn't endanger its allies' security. •Some Iran-linked bases in Syria have already evacuated personnel in anticipation of another strike there; others are operating only during the day (Israel usually strikes at night). Gaza •Qatar said it is undergoing a "complete re-evaluation of its role" mediating between Israel and Hamas after facing "exploitation and abuse" from unnamed "politicians who are trying to conduct election campaigns by slighting the State of Qatar." •PM Netanyahu is probably one of the anonymous detractors Qatar was complaining about: he has frequently criticized Qatar's mediation, refused to consider its negotiation recommendations, and threatened to ban its state news organization, Al Jazeera. Venezuela •Quiet talks between the U.S. and Venezuela over extending Venezuela's temporary sanctions relief broke down, and the U.S. allowed a six-month oil sales license to expire at midnight this morning. •The license had been granted in exchange for a commitment from Pres. Maduro to hold free and fair elections this year, but he broke that commitment by continuing to crack down on the opposition and scuppering their chances against him in July's election. Myanmar •Myanmar's junta moved deposed opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi from prison to an undisclosed location in the capital. •They cited concerns about her safety in a heat wave roasting the prison, but the rest of Naypyidaw is just as hot and they're probably not hosting her in an air-conditioned suite. •It's more likely that the junta is getting worried about the alliance of rebel groups threatening their regime and wants to make sure they hold onto their highest-value prisoner. China •Pres. Biden plans to announce a tripling in tariffs for Chinese steel imports, which are currently set at 7.5%. •Chinese steel represents only 0.6% of U.S. demand, so higher tariffs shouldn't raise U.S. consumer prices much - the increase is more of a political gambit to win voters in steel towns like the one in Pennsylvania where Biden will make his announcement. •Separately, a congressional committee accused China of complicity in the U.S. opioid crisis for offering tax rebates to manufacturers that produce fentanyl ingredients - as long as their products are sold abroad.
Open source reportOff Leash 11 April Gaza Israel's latest proposal asked Hamas to release elderly, ill, and female hostages - including five female soldiers - in return for a temporary ceasefire and release of Palestinian prisoners, but Hamas responded to tell negotiators it hasn't been able to locate 40 hostages fitting the bill. That admission raised concerns that more of the hostages than previously thought may have died. [Although that's not certain: Hamas officials also suggested it's just hard to locate dispersed hostages in the fog of war, and asked for a ceasefire to gather them from other militant groups and even families some are reported to be quartered with]. Meanwhile, an Israeli airstrike killed three sons of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh. The elder Haniyeh lives in exile in Qatar, but Israel says all three of his sons were Hamas military operatives. Their father was defiant: "The enemy is delusional if it thinks that by killing my children, we will change our positions. We shall not give in, no matter the sacrifices." While Israel continues to carry out airstrikes in Gaza, it has mostly reduced its ground presence and continues to boost aid flows into the strip. Defense minister Gallant announced plans to "flood Gaza with aid" through a new land crossing in the north that will shorten the distance aid trucks travel between Ashdod port and Gaza. China Canadian PM Trudeau testified at a government hearing about foreign interference, saying China tried to interfere in Canada's last two elections - although not in a way that affected the results, and probably not favoring one party over another. Venezuela Colombia's Pres. Petro said he met with Venezuela's opposition in Caracas, but he actually only met with Socialist Party-approved "opposition" candidate Manuel Rosales, and he did so with Pres. Maduro's approval. [Some analysts think Rosales was allowed to join the ballot for July's election because his candidacy lends a veneer of legitimacy to the rigged poll without posing a real threat to Maduro's re-election.] Petro's team didn't reach out to the united opposition under Maria Corina Machado - and Maduro probably wouldn't have let Petro meet any real opposition figures. Petro is trying to stay in Maduro's good graces because he wants to sign a deal that would see Colombia's Ecopetrol produce Venezuelan oil and gas. Afghanistan Reclusive Taliban leader Hibatullah Akundzada gave a rare public address during Eid prayers yesterday and doubled down on his government's Byzantine policies: "If anyone has any issues with us, we are open to resolving them, but we will never compromise on our principles or Islam. At the same time, we expect that Islam will not be disrespected. I will not take even a step away from the Islamic law." [Islamic law, in his view, recently led to the repeal of a ban on publicly stoning women to death for adultery - although no stonings have been carried out since the ban was repealed last month.] Other News Pres. Biden hosted an elaborate dinner for Japanese PM Fumio Kishida that was attended by Apple's Tim Cook, Amazon's Jeff Bezos, and Chase's Jamie Dimon. During meetings earlier in the day, the U.S. and Japan agreed to join three-way military exercise with Australia to counter China's growing influence in the Pacific. South Korea's opposition won a surprise landslide in yesterday's parliamentary elections, humbling Pres. Yoon and his conservative party and complicating their plans to pass legislation for the three years left in Yoon's term. PM Han Dong-hoon offered to resign. A South African court ruled that former president Jacob Zuma will be allowed to run for parliament under the newly-formed MK party on May 29 - despite a criminal conviction for refusing to cooperate with a graft investigation.
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