Hormuz access, Scarborough activity and political uncertainty drive the 23 June update

Off Leash update 23 June 2026

IRAN •Pres. Trump declared the Strait of Hormuz "totally open" and asserted that "we took in more oil yesterday than has ever gone through the strait." Meanwhile, Iran says the Strait is closed and will remain closed until certain conditions are met (more on that below). •The reality appears to be somewhere between these extreme claims: NBC's tracker (https://t.co/NcGMsYkIeh) reported that 15 tankers transited the Strait yesterday. That's far down from the pre-war average of around 100, but a notable increase over the slow drip of tanker traffic since February. •Iran's Tasnim news agency laid out Iran's conditions for reopening the Strait. Iran wants $12 billion in frozen assets released, Israel to fully withdraw from Lebanon, and waivers issued for its oil sanctions. •The U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has already acted on one of those demands. It waived some sanctions on Iran's oil sector for 60 days. •Many other sanctions on Iran remain in place. Pres. Trump can rescind some by executive order, but others will be harder to unwind within the 60 day deadline for lifting all sanctions on Iran. OFAC will take years to delist the 1,000 Iranian entities and individuals it designated for sanctions, and Congress will need to pass amendments to lift the legally-mandated sanctions on Iran and its proxies enacted over the past 40+ years.

UK •Andy Burnham is emerging as the clear favorite to replace Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, who became the sixth British Prime Minister to resign in 10 years. •Barnham is bolder and more popular than Starmer, but that doesn't guarantee he'll fare much better than his ousted predecessor. CNN explained one factor driving Western voters to churn through politicians: "[L]eaders tap voter anger to get elected and promise to restore prosperity. But once in power, they often find it impossible to fulfill their promises."

CHINA •China installed a new floating platform at Scarborough Shoal, raising concerns that it's planning to build more permanent structures around the reef, which China effectively controls but which lies within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone. •The apparent provocation seemed to achieve the desired effect with Philippine Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro, who said his government's "level of concern" about China's intensifying activity in the area "is significantly higher" now. •Separately, China imposed bans on selling certain rare earth metals to 10 U.S. companies leading state initiatives to revive domestic rare earth magnet production. •The blacklisted companies occupy a part of the supply chain that's highly vulnerable to coercions like this: they rely heavily on the Chinese raw materials now being cut off. Indeed, all global magnet manufacturers do, since China supplies 90% of the world's light rare earths and 98% of its heavy rare earths.

SOUTH SUDAN •South Sudan announced a date of December 22 for its long-delayed first-ever election - assuming Pres. Kiir won't find another excuse to postpone it again. •Kiir's election chief already cast doubt on plans for a December 22 poll in the very same speech in which he announced the date: he added that his office won't be able to organize an election until thorny legal issues and funding gaps are resolved. •Ongoing conflict between Kiir and his estranged First Vice President, Riek Machar, also threatens to disrupt the vote and potentially reignite the civil war they fought from 2013 to 2018. After the election announcement, Machar's SPLM-IO quickly issued an ominous warning: "Anyone coming to register voters and campaign in territories controlled by the mighty SPLM-IO, you will be a prisoner of war."

GUINEA •Guinea's junta leader, Mamady Doumbouya, announced a ban on unrefined gold exports that will require all gold to be processed domestically, effective immediately. •The move was probably premature: Guinea is building a massive new refinery that will be able to process its entire annual production volume of gold, but it's not done yet. Smaller, low-tech refiners can't handle Guinea's full production rate of around 90 tons per year.