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South Sudan announced 22 December for its long-delayed first election, while the election authority cited unresolved legal and funding issues. According to Riek Machar's SPLM-IO, a threat to treat voter-registration and campaign personnel entering its territory as prisoners of war.
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South Sudan announced 22 December for its long-delayed first election, while the election authority cited unresolved legal and funding issues. According to Riek Machar's SPLM-IO, a threat to treat voter-registration and campaign personnel entering its territory as prisoners of war.
Open source reportGeography
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Riek Machar dossier
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South Sudan
Police arrested Oil Minister Puot Kang Chol and SPLM-IO military leader Gen. Gabriel Doup Lam, both allies of Vice President Riek Machar. President Salva Kiir ordered arrests of senior commanders aligned with Machar, prompting concern that the rivals could abandon the 2018 peace agreement and renew civil war.
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Chronology
Off Leash update 23 June 2026 IRAN •Pres. Trump declared the Strait of Hormuz "totally open" and asserted that "we took in more oil yesterday than has ever gone through the strait." Meanwhile, Iran says the Strait is closed and will remain closed until certain conditions are met (more on that below). •The reality appears to be somewhere between these extreme claims: NBC's tracker (https://t.co/NcGMsYkIeh) reported that 15 tankers transited the Strait yesterday. That's far down from the pre-war average of around 100, but a notable increase over the slow drip of tanker traffic since February. •Iran's Tasnim news agency laid out Iran's conditions for reopening the Strait. Iran wants $12 billion in frozen assets released, Israel to fully withdraw from Lebanon, and waivers issued for its oil sanctions. •The U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has already acted on one of those demands. It waived some sanctions on Iran's oil sector for 60 days. •Many other sanctions on Iran remain in place. Pres. Trump can rescind some by executive order, but others will be harder to unwind within the 60 day deadline for lifting all sanctions on Iran. OFAC will take years to delist the 1,000 Iranian entities and individuals it designated for sanctions, and Congress will need to pass amendments to lift the legally-mandated sanctions on Iran and its proxies enacted over the past 40+ years. UK •Andy Burnham is emerging as the clear favorite to replace Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, who became the sixth British Prime Minister to resign in 10 years. •Barnham is bolder and more popular than Starmer, but that doesn't guarantee he'll fare much better than his ousted predecessor. CNN explained one factor driving Western voters to churn through politicians: "[L]eaders tap voter anger to get elected and promise to restore prosperity. But once in power, they often find it impossible to fulfill their promises." CHINA •China installed a new floating platform at Scarborough Shoal, raising concerns that it's planning to build more permanent structures around the reef, which China effectively controls but which lies within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone. •The apparent provocation seemed to achieve the desired effect with Philippine Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro, who said his government's "level of concern" about China's intensifying activity in the area "is significantly higher" now. •Separately, China imposed bans on selling certain rare earth metals to 10 U.S. companies leading state initiatives to revive domestic rare earth magnet production. •The blacklisted companies occupy a part of the supply chain that's highly vulnerable to coercions like this: they rely heavily on the Chinese raw materials now being cut off. Indeed, all global magnet manufacturers do, since China supplies 90% of the world's light rare earths and 98% of its heavy rare earths. SOUTH SUDAN •South Sudan announced a date of December 22 for its long-delayed first-ever election - assuming Pres. Kiir won't find another excuse to postpone it again. •Kiir's election chief already cast doubt on plans for a December 22 poll in the very same speech in which he announced the date: he added that his office won't be able to organize an election until thorny legal issues and funding gaps are resolved. •Ongoing conflict between Kiir and his estranged First Vice President, Riek Machar, also threatens to disrupt the vote and potentially reignite the civil war they fought from 2013 to 2018. After the election announcement, Machar's SPLM-IO quickly issued an ominous warning: "Anyone coming to register voters and campaign in territories controlled by the mighty SPLM-IO, you will be a prisoner of war." GUINEA •Guinea's junta leader, Mamady Doumbouya, announced a ban on unrefined gold exports that will require all gold to be processed domestically, effective immediately. •The move was probably premature: Guinea is building a massive new refinery that will be able to process its entire annual production volume of gold, but it's not done yet. Smaller, low-tech refiners can't handle Guinea's full production rate of around 90 tons per year.
Open source reportOff Leash update 6 Feb UKRAINE •Trilateral peace talks between Russia, Ukraine, and U.S. negotiators lasted just three hours yesterday - and not because they reached quick agreement. •The delegates reported no progress towards resolving two of the thorniest issues blocking a peace deal: the future of the Donbas region and post-war security guarantees for Ukraine. •Ukraine and Russia did, however, agree to another prisoner swap, and the U.S. and Russia agreed to restart talks between their militaries after a four-year lull. •Separately, Russia's deputy head of military intelligence, Lt. Gen. Vladimir Alexeyev, was shot several times in an assassination attempt in his apartment building in Moscow this morning. Alexeyev was hospitalized with serious injuries. •It's not clear who was behind the attack. Ukraine has claimed several similar targeted attacks on senior figures inside Russia, and it was probably also responsible for others it didn't publicly claim. NIGERIA •Jihadists killed over 170 people - mostly Muslims - in Nigeria's western Kwara State. •Pres. Bolo Tinubu deployed an army battalion to the region "to checkmate the barbaric terrorists and protect defenceless communities." Tinubu is under U.S. pressure to do more to combat Islamic terrorism in Nigeria so Pres. Trump doesn't feel compelled to intervene again with fresh airstrikes. •Tinubu's office said the Kwara gunmen sought revenge on villagers who had "rejected their obnoxious attempt at indoctrination." That's consistent with local reports that the attackers were Islamists who sought to preach in the villages but became enraged when villagers rejected their extremist ideology and refused their orders to adopt Sharia law. •Tinubu blamed the attack on Boko Haram, but he may be using the name of Nigeria's best-known jihadist group as a catch-all for unrelated Islamic terrorists. A local lawmaker said the attackers were part of the Lakurawa, an armed group linked to Islamic State. •Meanwhile, the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) said the last 166 hostages abducted in last month's attacks on churches in nearby Kaduna state had finally been freed. CAN didn't say whether ransoms were paid, but they likely were. Critics suggest paying ransoms incentivizes further kidnappings. SOUTH SUDAN •The South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF) announced that it had recaptured parts of Jonglei from the rival Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army in Opposition (SPLM/A-IO). •The SPLM/A-IO acknowledged it was withdrawing from Jonglei, but unconvincingly called the move a "deliberate and part of a broader operational strategy rather than a sign of defeat." The SPLM/A-IO also accused the SSPDF of genocide, rape, and other heinous atrocities in Jonglei. •The sudden shift raised fears of a reopened civil war pitting Pres. Kiir and the SSPDF against Kiir's First Vice President, Riek Machar (who has been in detention since last year), and the SPLM/A-IO.
Open source reportOff leash update 17 sept UKRAINE •Poland floated the idea of making the skies over Ukraine a no-fly zone. •It's an idea first raised by Pres. Zelensky early in the war: Zelensky reasoned that if the skies over his country were closed to air traffic, then he could justifiably ask NATO allies to shoot down Russian intruders who defied the ban. •Back then, NATO leaders rejected the idea out of fear of being drawn into a military conflict with Russia. Now, Poland's foreign minister, for one, thinks that "If Ukraine were to ask us” to shoot down drones over its territory, it will be advantageous for us." •The U.S. will likely remain opposed to the idea of a no-fly zone over Ukraine for the same reasons as before. RUSSIA •A new study by war crimes investigators at Yale University's Humanitarian Research Lab found that Russia's quiet forced re-education (read: indoctrination) programs for Ukrainian children from occupied territories are much larger than initially understood. •The study documented at least 210 Russian sites holding Ukrainian children (vs. around half that number in initial estimates). Some of those sites are military training schools; others are education camps with a severe pro-Russian nationalist slant. •The Geneva Convention prohibits military recruitment in occupied territories, but Russia argues that the prohibition doesn't apply here because it has annexed - not merely occupied - the Ukrainian areas in question. CHINA •Chinese and Philippine boats had another confrontation at sea near the disputed Scarborough Shoal yesterday. •Last week, China approved plans to turn the waters around the shoal into a national nature reserve to preserve its (disputed) right to the area, which lies well within the Philippines' Exclusive Economic Zone (as well as China's nine-dash line). This was the first run-in since those plans were approved. •The Philippines accused China of "aggressive" actions against its boats that were resupplying fishermen; China blamed the Philippines for the spat, which caused a collision between two boats. AFGHANISTAN •Afghanistan's Taliban government severed fiber-optic internet service to Balkh province "for the prevention of vices." Balkh residents can still get their vices on mobile internet, which remains up. •The Taliban's critics point out that cutting off home internet will disporportionately affect women and girls - many of whom started reading and studying online at home after the Taliban closed their schools and banned them from working. SOUTH SUDAN •Following two years of independent investigations, the UN Commission on Human Rights issued its verdict on South Sudan's festering political feud between Pres. Kiir and his First Vice President, Riek Machar. •The UN commission found both sides at fault for "the plundering of a nation," and blamed the leadership's infighting and corruption for "driving hunger, collapsing health systems, and causing preventable deaths, as well as fuelling deadly armed conflict over resources." •The commission's report cited one particularly damning example: South Sudan's government has collected $25.2 billion in oil revenues since 2011, yet has spent just a rounding error of that on essential services. As a result, "three-quarters of child deaths are preventable — yet funds go to patronage and private pockets, not medicine or clean water and sanitation."
Open source reportOff Leash update 25 March 2025 VENEZUELA •Pres. Trump accused Pres. Maduro's government of "purposefully and deceitfully" sending criminals and murderers - i.e. the Tren de Aragua gang - to the U.S., and announced plans to impose a punitive 25% tariff on all imports from countries that buy oil from Venezuela - even indirectly. •The largest buyers of Venezuelan oil are China, the U.S. (via Chevron's production, which Trump has ordered to wind down), Spain, and India. Rystad Energy thinks the threat of new tariffs will lead those buyers to seek other sources of oil, which should be fairly easy for all four countries: Venezuelan oil is not a major share of total oil imports for any of them. •Separately, the U.S. resumed deportation flights to Venezuela via Honduras after striking a deal with both Venezuela and Honduras over the weekend. TURKEY •Pres. Erdogan isn't backing down from his standoff with Istanbul mayor - and potential rival for the presidency - Ekrem Imamoglu. •Erdogan had Imamoglu fired from his mayoral post and re-arrested on Sunday - just hours before Imamoglu's party planned to name him as its candidate for the next presidential election. •Erdogan accuses Imamoglu of corruption and supporting terrorism; Imamoglu says the charges against him are bogus and politically motivated. •Tens of thousands of Turks seem to side with Imamoglu: the mayor's arrest sparked the biggest protests Turkey has seen in over 10 years, and Erdogan's authoritarian response - to arrest over 1,000 demonstrators, including journalists - risks feeding protesters additional grievances against Erdogan to rally behind. GAZA •Egypt proposed a new, limited ceasefire proposal for Gaza and said Hamas responded positively to the terms, which would see Hamas release five hostages in return for Israel lifting restrictions on aid flows. •Israel said it hadn't seen the proposal yet. AFGHANISTAN •The U.S. lifted bounties on three senior Taliban officials: Sirajuddin Haqqani, Abdul Azizi Haqqani, and Yahya Haqqani. •The reprieve was apparently part of a deal that U.S. envoy Adam Boehler struck when he visited Kabul last week. In return, the Taliban released a U.S. citizen who had been detained in Afghanistan for over two years. SOUTH SUDAN •South Sudan continues to edge closer to another civil war. Forces loyal to Pres. Kiir carried out airstrikes on a military base aligned with First Vice President Riek Machar near Juba on Sunday, and then arrested several of Machar's senior allies yesterday. •Kiir's side accused Machar's opposition of "scaling up their movements" and said Machar's forces had deployed a patrol "in military formation" to observe army positions. Both sides seem to be preparing to fight.
Open source reportOff Leash update 6 March UKRAINE AND EUROPE •Days after suspending U.S. military support for Ukraine, the U.S. has stopped sharing intelligence - including targeting information - with Ukraine too. •Ukraine has access to other sources of intelligence and the U.S. provides only 20% of its military support, so the U.S. suspensions won't immediately turn the tide of the war. A Ukrainian lawmaker told RBC-Ukraine that his military "has a safety margin of about six months even without systematic assistance from the United States, but it will be much more difficult, of course." •U.S. officials told the NYT that the suspensions are intended to last for just a week or two to nudge Pres. Zelensky to - as the NYT Kyiv bureau chief put it - "agree to [Pres. Trump's ceasefire] terms in advance, without knowing what they are." •Meanwhile, France's Pres. Macron continues to step up to fill the leadership vacuum left behind as the U.S. retreats from Ukraine. Macron said yesterday that France is open to the idea of extending the protection of its nuclear umbrella to its European allies. [France and the UK are the only European countries with nukes.] GAZA •Reuters reported that U.S. hostage envoy Adam Boehler met directly with Hamas representatives in Qatar in recent weeks to demand the release of the only surviving Israeli-American hostage and the return of the remains of four other dual citizen hostages who died in captivity. •Axios reported separately that Boehler's discussions with Hamas were mainly focused on securing the release of U.S. citizen hostages - which is well within Boehler's purview as a hostage envoy - but also touched on the potential for a long-term truce, which Hamas would want to secure in exchange for freeing the hostages. •It was believed to be the first time U.S. officials have directly engaged with Hamas, which the U.S. designated as a terrorist organization in 1997. •Pres. Trump then doubled down on Boehler's demands with a Truth Social post directed at Hamas, ordering it to "release all of the hostages now, not later, and immediately return all of the dead bodies of the people you murdered, or it is OVER for you." MOZAMBIQUE •Yesterday, Mozambique's Pres. Chapo signed an agreement with rival political parties ending their challenge against his election victory and quelling the violent protests resulting from it. •However, he excluded his chief rival, opposition leader Venâncio Mondlane, from the process. Mondlane called his supporters to the streets to protest against Chapo and his government in response, and police injured at least 16 protesters with live fire. So much for quelling violent protests. SOUTH SUDAN •South Sudan's police arrested oil minister Puot Kang Chol and the opposition SPLM-IO's military leader, Gen. Gabriel Doup Lam, this week. Both Chol and Lam are allies of Vice Pres. Machar, whose long-standing feud with Pres. Kiir has re-escalated in recent months. •The BBC reported that Kiir has ordered the arrest of all senior military commanders allied with Machar, and watchers are concerned that Kiir and Machar will tear up their fragile 2018 peace deal and resume civil war. TRADE •Pres. Trump agreed to a one-month reprieve on tariffs on auto imports from Canada and Mexico to the U.S. after a call with auto executives on Tuesday. In return, GM, Ford, and Stellantis agreed to move more of their production to the U.S.
Open source report