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7 direct mentions across 7 briefings, with 6 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
Prime Minister Keir Starmer resigned; Andy Burnham as the leading prospective replacement. Burnham's popularity would not ensure greater governing success.
Unverified development · updated through
Prime Minister Keir Starmer resigned; Andy Burnham as the leading prospective replacement. Burnham's popularity would not ensure greater governing success.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Keir Starmer dossier
6 mapped developments across 1 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
United Kingdom
The Conservatives lost power after 14 years, Keir Starmer would become prime minister, and former prime minister Liz Truss lost her parliamentary seat.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 23 June 2026 IRAN •Pres. Trump declared the Strait of Hormuz "totally open" and asserted that "we took in more oil yesterday than has ever gone through the strait." Meanwhile, Iran says the Strait is closed and will remain closed until certain conditions are met (more on that below). •The reality appears to be somewhere between these extreme claims: NBC's tracker (https://t.co/NcGMsYkIeh) reported that 15 tankers transited the Strait yesterday. That's far down from the pre-war average of around 100, but a notable increase over the slow drip of tanker traffic since February. •Iran's Tasnim news agency laid out Iran's conditions for reopening the Strait. Iran wants $12 billion in frozen assets released, Israel to fully withdraw from Lebanon, and waivers issued for its oil sanctions. •The U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has already acted on one of those demands. It waived some sanctions on Iran's oil sector for 60 days. •Many other sanctions on Iran remain in place. Pres. Trump can rescind some by executive order, but others will be harder to unwind within the 60 day deadline for lifting all sanctions on Iran. OFAC will take years to delist the 1,000 Iranian entities and individuals it designated for sanctions, and Congress will need to pass amendments to lift the legally-mandated sanctions on Iran and its proxies enacted over the past 40+ years. UK •Andy Burnham is emerging as the clear favorite to replace Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, who became the sixth British Prime Minister to resign in 10 years. •Barnham is bolder and more popular than Starmer, but that doesn't guarantee he'll fare much better than his ousted predecessor. CNN explained one factor driving Western voters to churn through politicians: "[L]eaders tap voter anger to get elected and promise to restore prosperity. But once in power, they often find it impossible to fulfill their promises." CHINA •China installed a new floating platform at Scarborough Shoal, raising concerns that it's planning to build more permanent structures around the reef, which China effectively controls but which lies within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone. •The apparent provocation seemed to achieve the desired effect with Philippine Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro, who said his government's "level of concern" about China's intensifying activity in the area "is significantly higher" now. •Separately, China imposed bans on selling certain rare earth metals to 10 U.S. companies leading state initiatives to revive domestic rare earth magnet production. •The blacklisted companies occupy a part of the supply chain that's highly vulnerable to coercions like this: they rely heavily on the Chinese raw materials now being cut off. Indeed, all global magnet manufacturers do, since China supplies 90% of the world's light rare earths and 98% of its heavy rare earths. SOUTH SUDAN •South Sudan announced a date of December 22 for its long-delayed first-ever election - assuming Pres. Kiir won't find another excuse to postpone it again. •Kiir's election chief already cast doubt on plans for a December 22 poll in the very same speech in which he announced the date: he added that his office won't be able to organize an election until thorny legal issues and funding gaps are resolved. •Ongoing conflict between Kiir and his estranged First Vice President, Riek Machar, also threatens to disrupt the vote and potentially reignite the civil war they fought from 2013 to 2018. After the election announcement, Machar's SPLM-IO quickly issued an ominous warning: "Anyone coming to register voters and campaign in territories controlled by the mighty SPLM-IO, you will be a prisoner of war." GUINEA •Guinea's junta leader, Mamady Doumbouya, announced a ban on unrefined gold exports that will require all gold to be processed domestically, effective immediately. •The move was probably premature: Guinea is building a massive new refinery that will be able to process its entire annual production volume of gold, but it's not done yet. Smaller, low-tech refiners can't handle Guinea's full production rate of around 90 tons per year.
Open source reportOff Leash update 22 June 2026 COMING UP THIS WEEK •Tomorrow is the 10th anniversary of the UK's vote to leave the European Union. Economists estimate that Brexit lowered UK per capita GDP by at least 2.5% - and perhaps as much as 8.0% - without the drastic deregulation that free market Brexiteers promised would compensate for the output shortfall. Only 11% of Britons now say Brexit has made their lives better, while 43% say their lives are now worse for leaving the EU. •The World Economic Forum hosts its 17th Annual Meeting of the New Champions (aka "Summer Davos") in Dalian, China tomorrow through Thursday. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,397/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $34,397/ton •Bitcoin: $64,062 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $13,595/ton •Ethereum: $1,746 •Gold: $4,197/toz •Lead: $1,954/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.33/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $75.31/barrel •Zinc: $3,557/ton IRAN •After a brief posturing delay, U.S. and Iranian negotiators sat down in Switzerland for the first day of talks towards a lasting peace deal. •The discussions ran late into the night, and Qatari and Pakistani mediators said the two sides had made "encouraging progress" on persistent sore points like reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending Israel's war in Lebanon, but it seemed like that progress was limited to agreeing on how to talk about the touchy topics - not actually resolving any big differences. LEBANON •Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is trying to thread the needle between his hardline coalition partners - who want Israeli forces to keep striking Lebanon until the very last Hezbollah militant is dead - and Pres. Trump's pressure to end the war in Lebanon for the sake of a U.S.-Iran peace deal that Netanyahu despises. •At Trump's behest, Netanyahu agreed to restrict Israel's military to defensive actions in Lebanon, and the fragile detente appears to be holding - for now. No new strikes have been reported since the order. •That said, hawkish Israeli officials like Defense Minister Israel Katz are already stress-testing the truce by arguing that essentially all Israeli operations in Lebanon are - and always were - defensive in nature. UK •Embattled British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer finally gave in to rising calls for him to quit and tendered his resignation as the leader of the UK's Labour Party - and thus (in September) as PM. •Starmer's resignation kicks off the process to elect a new party leader, starting with a nomination period opening July 9. Labour's new leader will be named by the time parliament returns in September, at which point Starmer will hand the PM role over to his successor. •Former Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham has emerged as a leading contender to lead the Labour party, and his election to parliament last week makes him eligible to run. COLOMBIA •Conservative candidate Abelardo De La Espriella won Colombia's presidential election yesterday, with a razor-thin margin of just 1% over leftist continuity candidate Iván Cepeda. •De La Esprialla is a criminal defense lawyer with no previous political experience. That probably endeared him to Colombian voters feeling dissatisfied with incumbent leftist President Gustavo Petro's achievements.
Open source reportOff Leash update 19 June 2026 IRAN •The U.S. and Iran were due to start negotiating a final peace agreement today, but abruptly cancelled talks. •Axios reported that Iran called off the summit as a consequence of Israel's continued strikes on southern Lebanon. Iran considers Israel's fresh strikes to be a violation of the first point of the text of the memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran - the text of which was released Wednesday. •Pres. Trump is getting a lot of flak for the contents of that text. The NYT called it "basically a list of concessions to Iran with little - if anything - concrete to show for it on the U.S. side." •More unusually, the text even drew criticism from some hawkish Republicans like Sen. Bill Cassidy - who called it "the worst foreign policy blunder in decades" - and Sen. Roger Wicker - who chairs the Armed Forces Committee and fumed that the deal offers Iran juicy rewards like sanctions relief and cash "in exchange for Iran’s mere agreement to negotiate for another 60 days." •Such a resoundingly negative reaction makes me wonder if Trump will also get cold feet about moving forward with negotiations for a final peace agreement. •[Trump's team claims the text was deliberately left short and sweet so Iran's hardliners could agree to it; they say Iran agreed to tougher and more explicit commitments in back-channel talks.] UK •Popular Manchester mayor Andy Burnham easily won a key special election yesterday. The win was pivotal for Burnham because it gives him a seat in Parliament - which is a necessary requirement for being able to challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer for the leadership of the Labour Party, and thus the premiership. •Burnham stands a good chance of beating Starmer, who is deeply unpopular even within his own party and polls as the least popular British Prime Minister on record. UKRAINE AND RUSSIA •Ukraine launched another round of long-range strikes deep inside Russia yesterday, including its largest attack yet on Moscow. Pres. Zelensky said it was retaliation for Russia's strike on a historic monastery in Kyiv earlier this week: "If Ukraine burns, then your Moscow will burn as well." Russia threatened re-retaliation. •The Economist tallied some figures that show how much Kyiv has stepped up its long-range game. In the three years from 2022 through 2024, Ukraine completed a total of 338 reported strikes on targets at least 100 km from its borders, or about 120 strikes per year. Last year, it completed 658 such strikes, and it's on track to complete more than 800 this year. •Many of Ukraine's long-range strikes have targeted oil infrastructure like refineries and ports, causing damage that has reduced Russian oil refinery production by 15% between the first four months of last year and the same period this year - that's despite high oil prices, which usually stimulate more production. NIGER •Gunmen assaulted Niamey's international airport early this morning, engaging Nigerien soldiers in a half-hour gun battle that killed at least 35, including 11 soldiers and two civilians. •Al Qaeda's local affiliate, Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), claimed this morning's attack in a social media post. •That catches JNIM up with its regional rival, Islamic State - Sahel Province (ISSP), which attacked the same airport in January. JNIM and ISSP are likely to continue to stage high-impact attacks on symbolic targets as their rivalry escalates. SUDAN •The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) appears poised to launch an offensive on government-controlled El Obeid. •The RSF has beseiged the capital of North Kordofan state for 18 months, offering its civilian population a glimpse of the horrors that might unfold in a battle to control it. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights urged both sides to "stop this madness."
Open source reportOff Leash update 12 June 2026 IRAN •Pres. Trump threatened to carry out strikes on Iran for a third straight night before abruptly calling them off with an announcement that a peace deal is "in pretty final shape" and could be signed as soon as this weekend. •Iran's state media contradicted Trump's claim and reported that "nothing is finalized" yet, but Iranian officials confirmed to Al Jazeera off the record that Iran's leaders are indeed reviewing a memorandum of understanding they received from U.S. negotiators. •Like Trump, Iran continued to make public threats while working towards a peace deal behind the scenes. State media broadcast the military's threats to target regional assets linked to Elon Musk and his companies in revenge for the key role his Starlink internet service has played in U.S. military operations against Iran. •Separately, the World Bank downgraded its global growth forecast for 2026 from 2.6% to 2.5%, blaming energy supply disruptions caused by the Iran war. Likewise, the UK reported its first monthly economic contraction since August, citing the effect of the war on output. UK •UK defence minister John Healey unexpectedly resigned yesterday, citing Prime Minister Starmer's failure to adequately invest in the military: "I am being forced to make decisions that would reduce the readiness of our forces and increase the risk to personnel on operations, and could make the country less safe." SWITZERLAND •Switzerland is putting a unique question to a vote on Sunday, with a referendum on whether to enact a population cap. •If passed, the measure would oblige the government to act - e.g. by sharpening asylum and family unification rules or ending free movement across borders with the European Union - once the country's population reaches 10 million (vs. 9.1 million today). •Polling suggests Swiss voters are roughly split on the idea, with slightly more against it than for it. But experts say polls often misjudge support for immigration-related proposals. SOUTH KOREA •Ousted South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and his former defense minister were each sentenced to 30 years in prison for ordering provocative drone flights into North Korea in 2024. Prosecutors argued that Yoon ordered the incursions to stir trouble with Pyongyang and justify his declaration of martial law. •Yoon is already jailed on other charges including rebellion, for which prosecutors had sought the death penalty. Yoon is appealing his convictions. AFGHANISTAN •Afghanistan's Taliban enforcers detained at least 30 women in Herat over alleged "noncompliance" with its strict female dress rules. A local witness told Human Rights Watch that "All the women were wearing hijabs, but the style did not meet their [the police’s] preferences." •The arrests sparked protests that security forces met with excessive force, killing a child and beating up dozens of demonstrators.
Open source reportOff Leash update 12 May IRAN •Pres. Trump raised concerns about renewed hostilities with Iran when he said the current, temporary ceasefire is on "massive life support" with a "1 percent chance" of survival and called Iran's latest counterproposal "garbage." •Iranian state media reported that the counterproposal Trump rejected called for the U.S. to pay war reparations, end sanctions on Iran, and recognize Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. It also reportedly postponed nuclear negotiations for "when the time is right." UKRAINE •Ukraine's anti-corruption authorities formally notified Pres. Zelensky's former chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, that he's a suspect in their widening investigation into corruption in the senior ranks of Zelensky's government. •Yermak resigned in November after investigators began looking into allegations of his involvement in a scheme to embezzle $100 million from the state nuclear company. •Investigators now allege that Yermak and two other disgraced former officials sought to use 460 million hryvnia ($10.5 million) of their tainted proceeds to build themselves neighboring luxury homes. •Zelensky has sought to distance himself from the disgraced officials and the investigation, and he won't be pleased to see the inquiry - dubbed Operation Midas - back in the headlines. •Separately, the European Union slapped sanctions on 16 more officials and seven more organizations accused of facilitating Russia's abduction of Ukrainian children. •Ukrainian authorities estimate that Russia has deported 20,500 Ukrainian children since the war began in 2022; only around 2,000 have been returned. UK •British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is stubbornly defying intensifying calls - including dozens from within his own Labour party - to step down. •A minister and several aides have already quit Starmer's government in protest at his insistence on staying on until a formal challenger emerges. That may not take long: other Labour lawmakers are organizing a challenge to unseat him. SOUTH AFRICA •South Africa's Parliament said it would comply with a recent Constitutional Court decision and establish an impeachment committee to re-investigate old misconduct allegations against President Cyril Ramaphosa. •The allegations center on a 2020 scandal in which thieves discovered $580,000 (and perhaps up to $4 million) in foreign cash hidden in a sofa at Ramaphosa's Phala Phala game farm, raising uncomfortable questions about how a lifetime public servant could have amassed such wealth and why he would keep it in cash instead of depositing it at a bank. •Ramaphosa's African National Congress colleagues in Parliament brushed the scandal under the rug in 2022 with a vote blocking the impeachment process. The Constitutional Court has now ruled that vote invalid, thus reviving the inquiry. •Like Starmer in the UK, Ramaphosa is defiantly refusing to resign. ISRAEL •The European Union slapped new sanctions on three Israeli settlers and four pro-settlement organizations accused of perpetrating violence against Palestinians in the West Bank, as well as several senior Hamas figures. •Spokesmen for both the Israeli government and Hamas seemed equally upset about the actual sanctions as they were about the other side facing similar - and not much harsher - penalties.
Open source reportOff Leash update 5 Sept UKRAINE •France's Pres. Macron announced that 26 countries have formally agreed to be "present on the ground, in the sea or in the air” to guarantee Ukraine's security in a potential future peace deal with Russia. •Macron was intentionally vague about what that commitment really means because the group does not wish to "reveal the details of our organization to Russia." •Several signatories - including Germany, Italy, Poland, and the U.S. - have already rejected the idea of having troops on the ground in Ukraine, and so far only Estonia, France, and the UK have publicly entertained the idea of sending ground troops. The Kremlin obviously hates the idea. •Pres. Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, attended the summit Macron co-hosted with the UK's Prime Minister Starmer, and Trump apparently dialed in, too. Their participation reinforced U.S. backing for a European-led post-war plan. •Trump seemingly surprised Macron by taking a tough tone on Pres. Putin after the pair's fairly friendly meeting in Alaska last month. On yesterday's call, Trump urged the 30 heads of state in attendance not to buy Russian oil, and to redouble pressure on China to stop funding Russia's war effort. AFGHANISTAN •As the dust settles on Sunday's earthquake in northeast Afghanistan, reports are emerging that some (all-male) first responders abided by Taliban-directed cultural norms and refused to help women and girls trapped in the rubble, leaving them to wait for female rescuers. •As a result, women may represent a disproportionate share of the 2,200 killed and 3,600 injured in the disaster when the Taliban government eventually releases a gender breakdown of casualties. Or - if casualty statistics were a woman's job before the Taliban banned women from working - we may never see that breakdown at all. DRC •DRC declared a new Ebola outbreak in its south-central Kasai province, which borders Angola. •So far, health officials have counted 15 deaths and 28 suspected cases in the current outbreak, which is DRC's first since 2022 - and Kasai's first since 2008. •Kinshasa is well-versed in dealing with Ebola, and keeps an ample "stockpile of treatments" - including vaccines - on hand to deploy to new outbreaks like this. GAZA •Hamas said it was ready to release all 20 surviving hostages in exchange for an end to the war and Israel's full military withdrawal from Gaza, but Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu - who demands Hamas's full disarmament too - quickly rejected its latest offer as "spin" and "nothing new." •Israel still hasn't formally responded to the ceasefire proposal Hamas agreed to last week, but its mounting military offensive on Gaza City seems like a negative sign. VENEZUELA •The U.S. Dept. of Defense (which is soon to be renamed the "Department of War") reported that two Venezuelan military jets buzzed one of the U.S. Navy's guided missile destroyers operating in international waters off the coast of Venezuela in a "highly provocative" attempt "to interfere with our counter-narco-terror operations." •The Pentagon responded with a direct warning to Pres. Maduro's government: "The cartel running Venezuela is strongly advised not to pursue any further effort to obstruct, deter or interfere with counter-narcotics and counter-terror operations carried out by the US military." Editor note to Venezuelan military: Fuck Around and Find Out!
Open source reportOff Leash Update 5 July Iran •Analysts are struggling to predict the outcome of today's runoff presidential election in Iran. •On one hand, conservatives have consolidated their support behind hardline candidate Saeed Jalili. •But on the other, many moderates who fear the consequences of a hardline president are turning out to support Jalili's reformist rival, Dr. Masoud Pezeshkian. •Turnout for today's runoff seems much higher than the record low level of 40% set in the first round. Mozambique •The South African Development Community (SADC) announced the end of its peacekeeping mission in Cabo Delgado. •The three-year mission achieved mixed results: it initially succeeded in reducing the capacity of militant groups to carry out attacks and making the region safe for displaced residents to return home, but the pace of attacks began to rise again in late 2023, causing renewed displacement. •The SADC mission also failed to fulfill its mandate to train Mozambican security forces because it couldn't identify what kind of training the local forces needed. •Those questionably-trained Mozambican security forces will now take over responsibility for the region's security from the withdrawing SADC mission. DRC •A DRC military court sentenced 25 soldiers to death for "fleeing the enemy, dissipating munitions of war and violating orders" after running away from a battle with M23 rebels. •While Congolese soldiers are fleeing the fight, the better-disciplined (and Rwanda-backed) M23 has been able to gain the upper hand and capture several strategic towns in recent weeks. Sahel •Junta leaders from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger will meet for the first-ever "Alliance of Sahel States" (AES, en français) summit in Niamey this weekend. •The AES countries have a lot to talk about: all three were booted from the regional ECOWAS bloc because of their coups, so they're now hoping to replace the economic and defense benefits it enjoyed from that alliance by forming a parallel bloc. •They even timed their first AES summit to coincide with ECOWAS's next meeting, which takes place in Abuja on Sunday. •Separately, U.S. troops will complete their withdrawal from Niamey Air Base 101 on Sunday. The remaining U.S. troops in Niger will withdraw - per the junta's demand - by September 15. Gaza and Israel •U.S. and Israeli officials renewed whispers of hope for a ceasefire deal with Hamas after a "breakthrough" in talks. However, even optimistic U.S. officials conceded there are still some major obstacles standing in the way of a truce. •Meanwhile farther north, Israel killed a Hezbollah commander in a drone strike, and Hezbollah retaliated by firing a volley of rockets into Israel as an "initial response." Other News •Disgruntled British voters overthrew the Conservative party after a 14-year reign. Former human rights lawyer Keir Starmer will be the new Prime Minister. •Former PM Liz Truss - who was PM for exactly as many days as David Blaine lived in a glass box suspended over the Thames River - was one of the senior Tory MPs who lost her seat.
Open source report