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5 direct mentions across 5 briefings, with 6 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
Junta leader Mamady Doumbouya imposed an immediate domestic-processing requirement for gold. The measure may be premature because a planned large refinery is unfinished and existing smaller facilities cannot process the country's claimed annual output of about 90 tons.
Unverified development · updated through
Junta leader Mamady Doumbouya imposed an immediate domestic-processing requirement for gold. The measure may be premature because a planned large refinery is unfinished and existing smaller facilities cannot process the country's claimed annual output of about 90 tons.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Mamady Doumbouya dossier
6 mapped developments across 1 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Guinea
The proposed constitution could legitimize the junta’s seizure of power and allow leader Mamady Doumbouya to remain in office.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 23 June 2026 IRAN •Pres. Trump declared the Strait of Hormuz "totally open" and asserted that "we took in more oil yesterday than has ever gone through the strait." Meanwhile, Iran says the Strait is closed and will remain closed until certain conditions are met (more on that below). •The reality appears to be somewhere between these extreme claims: NBC's tracker (https://t.co/NcGMsYkIeh) reported that 15 tankers transited the Strait yesterday. That's far down from the pre-war average of around 100, but a notable increase over the slow drip of tanker traffic since February. •Iran's Tasnim news agency laid out Iran's conditions for reopening the Strait. Iran wants $12 billion in frozen assets released, Israel to fully withdraw from Lebanon, and waivers issued for its oil sanctions. •The U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has already acted on one of those demands. It waived some sanctions on Iran's oil sector for 60 days. •Many other sanctions on Iran remain in place. Pres. Trump can rescind some by executive order, but others will be harder to unwind within the 60 day deadline for lifting all sanctions on Iran. OFAC will take years to delist the 1,000 Iranian entities and individuals it designated for sanctions, and Congress will need to pass amendments to lift the legally-mandated sanctions on Iran and its proxies enacted over the past 40+ years. UK •Andy Burnham is emerging as the clear favorite to replace Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, who became the sixth British Prime Minister to resign in 10 years. •Barnham is bolder and more popular than Starmer, but that doesn't guarantee he'll fare much better than his ousted predecessor. CNN explained one factor driving Western voters to churn through politicians: "[L]eaders tap voter anger to get elected and promise to restore prosperity. But once in power, they often find it impossible to fulfill their promises." CHINA •China installed a new floating platform at Scarborough Shoal, raising concerns that it's planning to build more permanent structures around the reef, which China effectively controls but which lies within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone. •The apparent provocation seemed to achieve the desired effect with Philippine Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro, who said his government's "level of concern" about China's intensifying activity in the area "is significantly higher" now. •Separately, China imposed bans on selling certain rare earth metals to 10 U.S. companies leading state initiatives to revive domestic rare earth magnet production. •The blacklisted companies occupy a part of the supply chain that's highly vulnerable to coercions like this: they rely heavily on the Chinese raw materials now being cut off. Indeed, all global magnet manufacturers do, since China supplies 90% of the world's light rare earths and 98% of its heavy rare earths. SOUTH SUDAN •South Sudan announced a date of December 22 for its long-delayed first-ever election - assuming Pres. Kiir won't find another excuse to postpone it again. •Kiir's election chief already cast doubt on plans for a December 22 poll in the very same speech in which he announced the date: he added that his office won't be able to organize an election until thorny legal issues and funding gaps are resolved. •Ongoing conflict between Kiir and his estranged First Vice President, Riek Machar, also threatens to disrupt the vote and potentially reignite the civil war they fought from 2013 to 2018. After the election announcement, Machar's SPLM-IO quickly issued an ominous warning: "Anyone coming to register voters and campaign in territories controlled by the mighty SPLM-IO, you will be a prisoner of war." GUINEA •Guinea's junta leader, Mamady Doumbouya, announced a ban on unrefined gold exports that will require all gold to be processed domestically, effective immediately. •The move was probably premature: Guinea is building a massive new refinery that will be able to process its entire annual production volume of gold, but it's not done yet. Smaller, low-tech refiners can't handle Guinea's full production rate of around 90 tons per year.
Open source reportOff Leash update 9 March COMING UP THIS WEEK •Today is Commonwealth Day: a celebration of the 56-member Commonwealth of Nations that will be marked by a speech by King Charles III. It's also World Napping Day. •Saturday is my favorite holiday, Pi Day. •On Sunday, Vietnam will vote in national assembly elections, Congo-Brazzaville will hold a sham poll to re-elect incumbent president Denis Sassou Nguesso, and Kazakhstan will hold a constitutional referendum COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,446/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $67,626 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $12,862/ton •Ethereum: $1,991 •Gold: $5,089/toz •Lead: $1,953/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.37/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $103.40/barrel •Zinc: $3,298/ton IRAN •Israel bombed several Iranian fuel depots, causing thick smoke and acid rain. The White House was reportedly surprised by the scale of its ally's attack on (partly) civilian infrastructure and displeased by the prospect that it could backfire by angering ordinary Iranians into supporting their defiant regime. •Global oil prices reached their highest levels since 2022 on concerns that the war - and the oil supply disruptions it's causing - won't end soon. Pres. Trump told Americans that costlier gas is a "very small price" to pay for ridding the world of an evil Iranian regime, but voters may not agree in this mid-term election year. •Analysts are increasingly describing the war as a perilous game of geopolitical chicken, with each side hoping to force the other to surrender first. Iran hopes its attacks on U.S. allies in the Middle East will cause enough damage that those allies will lobby the U.S. and Israel to stop attacking. And Pres. Trump seems to be hoping that the bombardment will eventually force surviving leaders into making a deal to end their attrition. But - as today's NYT pointed out - "[n]either option promises the kind of change many Iranians might be hoping for." •Separately, Iran's Council of Experts appointed Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his father as Supreme Leader. Mojtaba is a quiet figure and his personal views and priorities aren't widely known, but his bloodline and close ties with the security services suggest he's likely to be a hardliner like his father. UKRAINE •Pres. Zelensky proudly boasted that Ukrainian interceptor drones are helping to protect U.S. military bases in Jordan, and may soon be deployed to U.S. bases in Gulf countries. •Ukraine has been battling Russia's Iranian-made Shahed drones in its skies for years, giving it an unparalleled level of experience and expertise defending against drone attacks. •Kyiv now hopes to lend that expertise to the U.S. to curry favor ahead of U.S.-brokered peace talks with Russia, but analysts are skeptical that will help ingratiate Zelensky with Pres. Trump, who continues to blame Ukraine for the failure of truce talks. NEPAL •A new party led by a former rapper, Balendra Shah, won a landslide victory in Nepal's first parliamentary election since Gen Z protests toppled the previous government. •Shah and his Rastriya Swatantra (National Independent Party) won 117 of 165 directly-elected seats. That strong majority also gives Shah a mandate to carry out the reform agenda he campaigned on - and agitated for as a protest leader before entering politics. AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN •Afghanistan's Taliban government said Pakistan attacked five of its border provinces over the weekend, and its defense minister warned that "if Kabul is attacked, Islamabad will be attacked." [Presumably he meant "If Kabul is attacked again:" Pakistan already struck Kabul earlier in this bout of fighting, and Afghanistan didn't retaliate then.] •A tenuous ceasefire ended the last round of skirmishes in October, but it broke down after fresh cross-border attacks reinvigorated Pakistan's drive to eliminate the Pakistani Taliban militants it accuses Afghanistan of harboring. •This time, neither side seems ready to talk peace. But neither can afford to wage a full-blown war over their differences either, so their fight will probably grind on as a low-level war. GUINEA •Guinea's coup leader-cum-president, Mamady Doumbouya, ordered the dissolution of 40 political parties ostensibly for failing to meet their legal and fiscal obligations. •The three largest opposition parties cried foul - though all three were already suspended in August and have few operations left to dissolve. •The country's most visible opposition leader, Cellou Dalein Diallo, called for "direct resistance" but didn't elaborate on what he had in mind.
Open source reportOff Leash update 29 Dec COMING UP THIS WEEK •China is staging a sixth round of live-fire war games around Taiwan today and tomorrow in a potential response to the record $11.1 billion arms deal the U.S. announced with Taiwan earlier this month. •Thursday is New Year's Day and many global markets are closed. •Thursday also marks two big changes in Europe: Bulgaria will adopt the Euro as the 21st member of the eurozone currency union, and Cyprus will assume the rotating presidency of the Council of Europe from Denmark. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,961/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $87,882 •Cobalt: $52,790/ton •Copper: $12,163/ton - near record highs on supply constraints, surging demand due to green energy transitions and trade policy uncertainty •Ethereum: $2,970 •Gold: $4,468/toz - another record high on demand for safe haven assets •Lead: $1,995/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.38/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $57.90/barrel •Zinc: $3,091/ton RUSSIA AND UKRAINE •Yesterday, Pres. Trump spoke with Russia's Pres. Putin by phone and then met Ukraine's Pres. Zelensky in person to discuss ideas for ending the war between Russia and Ukraine. •Trump expressed cautious optimism after his meetings, saying Russia and Ukraine are "maybe very close" to a ceasefire. Zelensky seemed to agree and estimated that the current peace proposal was "90 percent" complete. •The Kremlin appeared less enthused. Putin's aides publicly disparaged several key provisions of the proposal - including the idea of European peacekeepers upholding the truce in Ukraine - after Putin discussed it with Trump. THAILAND AND CAMBODIA •Thailand and Cambodia signed a fresh 72-hour ceasefire agreement to end another brief bout of border clashes. •The truce - which started at noon on Saturday - seems to be mostly holding up, but it does little to resolve the longstanding and complex territorial disputes underlying recent flare-ups. •Nonetheless, neither side appears interested in broadening their war, and both are likely to embrace an uneasy detente for now. GUINEA •Guinea voted for president yesterday. Provisional results are due tomorrow, with final results to follow within two weeks. •Coup leader Mamady Doumbouya is slated to win in the first round, despite initially insisting he had no plans to run and running on an uninspiring platform promising to "make Guinea an emerging country." •Doumbouya's junta barred several popular rivals from running against him, which helped his vote count but weakened the legitimacy he hoped the election would confer on his rule. •He'll now face the tall task of responsibly managing Guinea's resources - and especially its massive bauxite reserves. So far, Doumbouya has taken a pragmatic approach to resource development by accepting attractive and non-exclusive investments from diverse partners. •However, his government has kept a close hold on its mining deal details, and has yet to show how it plans to manage its windfall proceeds. SOMALILAND •On Friday, Israel became the first country to recognize the long-sought independence of the breakaway territory of Somaliland, which has been governing itself mostly peacefully since 1991 but remains part of Somalia on maps and at the UN. •Israel aims to revive momentum for the stalled Abraham Accords, a series of U.S.-brokered agreements it signed to normalize diplomatic relations with four Arab nations in 2020 that have since added only one new signatory: Kazakhstan in 2025. •For its part, Somaliland is desperate for any recognition, and hopes that Israel's opening move will inspire more of the 20 nations that Pres. Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi says are on the cusp of recognition to take the leap. •Israel's recognition drew widespread condemnation from multiple angles. Somalia's federal government in Mogadishu and its allies decried the move as a violation of sovereignty and territorial integrity. •Other countries contending with their own self-determined separatist groups - like Morocco and Nigeria - were particularly quick to condemn it, lest it inspire new rebellions elsewhere. •And Yemen's Houthi rebels warned that they would consider any Israeli presence in Somaliland - which lies across the Gulf of Aden from Houthi-controlled southern Yemen - to be "a military target for our armed forces." [In fairness, Israel may indeed be eyeing Somaliland as a base from which to target Houthi positions across the Gulf.] YEMEN •Following weeks of speculation, the Saudi Arabia-led coalition in Yemen formally warned Southern Transition Council (STC) separatists to withdraw from parts of Hadramaut province that they captured earlier this month or risk being "dealt with directly and immediately." •The warning came a day after Saudi apparently "dealt with" STC affiliates by launching airstrikes on their positions in Hadramaut. •Saudi officials declined to comment on the airstrikes and appear to be handling the issue gently to avoid stirring trouble with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which is generally a staunch Saudi ally but also supports the STC in Yemen. Both Saudi and the UAE seem keen to resolve their differences politely and behind closed doors rather than through proxies in Yemen. SYRIA •Islamic State splinter group Ansar al-Sunna claimed that it collaborated with "jihadists from another group" to carry out a mosque bombing in Homs that killed at least eight people in an Alawite area of Homs on Friday. •That sparked large protests in other predominantly Alawite parts of Syria, including Latakia, against the new government's failure to protect the Alawite minority from what they see as reprisal attacks for their loyalty to deposed dictator Bashar Al Assad (who is also an Alawite). •Syria's central government condemned the mosque attack and called for calm.
Open source reportOff Leash update 4 Nov 2025 U.S. •U.S. off-year elections are today. Vote! GAZA •Yesterday, the U.S. circulated a draft UN Security Council resolution proposing an International Security Force (ISF) to run post-war Gaza for two years. •The draft emphasizes that the ISF would be an "enforcement force and not a peacekeeping force," and would have a mandate to disarm terror groups. •That's likely to be a turnoff for some of the Arab and Muslim leaders - like Jordan's King Abdullah - who have said they won't contribute troops to a force tasked with enforcing peace rather than merely keeping it. [Peace enforcement generally uses coercive measures like military force to impose peace - an idea that King Abdullah says "nobody will want to touch" in Gaza.] VENEZUELA •The Washington Post reported that Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro has been begging for help from Russia, China, and Iran to upgrade its arsenal, defenses, and air fleet in light of the ongoing buildup of U.S. forces in the region, which Maduro (rightly) perceives as a threat to his regime. •Russia has sent Maduro at least two cargo planes of kit in recent weeks, but some analysts think that's about all the support that Moscow will be able to offer while its focus and resources are stretched in Ukraine. A spokesman for Russia's Foreign Ministry merely acknowledged that her ministry was "in contact with" a pleading Maduro regime. •Iran has sent Maduro some drones; it's not clear whether or how China has replied to his requests. SUDAN •Satellite photos appeared to corroborate survivors' accounts that Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are carrying out systematic massacres of civilian men in El Fasher, which the RSF finally captured from the army last week. •Separately, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) - the world's leading authority on food crises - deemed El Fasher and a second Sudanese city, Kordofan's Kadugli, to be facing famine after monthslong RSF sieges. CHINA •The Economist analyzed 14,000 documented examples of Xi Jinping's speeches and writings since 2013 to spot some noteworthy trends. •Xi's use of bold language - "strong country," "great enterprise," "high quality," etc. - has risen dramatically, while he's reduced his use of fluffier and feelier words like "hope," "care," and "opinions." Read more here: https://t.co/VailJ6WtMG. TANZANIA •Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan was sworn in to a new term as nationwide protests against her sham re-election continued. •One might think that a leader popular enough to claim 98% of the vote with a record turnout of 87% (per official stats) would relish celebrating her victory as her predecessors celebrated theirs: with a huge public inauguration bash at Dar es Salaam's largest stadium. •Instead, Samia took her oath of office in a private (but televised) event at a military venue, citing security concerns - which she blamed on "foreigners." •Reports of empty polling stations on election day cast doubt on the official turnout figures, and Samia didn't need to plump turnout up anyway: her victory was already ensured when her only two serious rivals were banned from running against her. GUINEA •Guinea's junta leader, Mamady Doumbouya, formally filed to contest the December 28 presidential election, reversing a pledge he made upon seizing power in 2021 to hand authority over to an elected government and not run for election himself. •Doumbouya apparently changed his mind after a convenient September referendum lifted a constitutional prohibition on military leaders contesting elections and introduced new restrictions that bar his two closest rivals from running. •Doumbouya's supporters - who don't seem to understand how democracy works - cheered him on as he filed his campaign papers: "Mamady champion, Mamady president, Mamady already elected!"
Open source reportOff Leash update 15 September COMING UP THIS WEEK •Arab foreign ministers are holding an emergency summit today to discuss a united response to Israel's strike on Hamas leaders in Doha last week. Some analysts worry that the unilateral strike is leading U.S. allies in the region - including Qatar - to question what they gain from strong ties with a U.S. that either can't or won't intervene on their behalf to prevent strikes like this. •Pres. Trump will make an unprecedented second presidential visit to the UK this week, starting tomorrow. •Wednesday is the extended deadline for Bytedance to sell TikTok to a non-Chinese owner - but that deadline has already been delayed three times, and - given the lack of publicly-announced progress towards an acquisition deal - looks likely to be extended again. •The U.S. Federal Reserve will announce its decision on interest rates Wednesday. Pres. Trump predicted that the Fed will oblige his request for a "big cut" in rates. •The 19th annual Oktoberfest starts Saturday in Munich. •On Sunday, Guinea will vote in a referendum on its junta's new draft constitution. More on that below. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,690/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $115,036 •Cobalt: $33,335/ton •Copper: $10,068/ton •Ethereum: $4,531 •Gold: $3,637/toz •Lead: $2,018/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.95/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $62.89/barrel •Zinc: $2,957/ton RUSSIA •Romania said Russian drones invaded its airspace, marking the second time in under a week that a NATO member has reported a Russian drone incursion. •Analysts call the use of such gradual offenses to probe an adversary's response "salami slicing:" each slice advances Russia's geopolitical goals slightly, without causing enough of a stir to provoke meaningful countermeasures. NEPAL •Nepal's "Gen Z" protesters got their wish and saw their pick to lead the country's interim government, former chief justice Sushila Karki, sworn in as interim prime minister. •Karki said she'd been reluctant to accept the mantle of becoming Nepal's first female leader, and pledged to step down in six months after organizing fresh elections. GUINEA •Guinea's junta will put its new draft constitution to a referendum on Sunday. •The referendum was supposed to be a gauge of popular sentiment on ending the junta's military rule, but it instead looks like a way to legitimize its power grab: the draft proposal seems to open the door to keeping junta leader Mamady Doumbouya in power. •It won't be a fair vote, either: the junta banned the country's three main political parties - including deposed Pres. Conde's Rally of the Guinean People - from participating, saying the "parties have not fulfilled the obligations required of them." Their main offense seems to be demonstrating against the junta's illegal power grab. PALESTINIAN STATEHOOD •The UN General Assembly overwhelmingly approved a declaration condemning both Hamas's Oct. 7 attacks and Israel's subsequent war in Gaza, and supporting "tangible, timebound, and irreversible steps" towards a two-state solution to the long-running conflict. •The U.S. and Israel boycotted the resolution and criticized it as a "publicity stunt." SAHEL •Niger and Chad reported two apparently isolated recent jihadist attacks on their soldiers. •In the first, Islamic State (IS)-linked militants ambushed Nigerien soldiers after laying traps for them in Tillabéri, killing at least 14 and up to 27. Those coordinated incidents apparently took place last Wednesday - which was the same day Human Rights Watch issued a report warning of an escalation in IS attacks in the volatile region. •Then, Chad said "Boko Haram elements" killed 40 of its soldiers in an attack on their base in the Lac region bordering Nigeria early today. The attackers absconded with heavy weapons, which they'll likely use in future attacks.
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