Ukraine election call, Iranian contingency plans and Israeli strikes widen geopolitical pressure

Off Leash update 19 August 2026

UKRAINE •Mykhailo Fedorov - the popular former defense minister Pres. Zelensky sacked last month - posted a bold video to YouTube calling for new elections to be held, despite the ongoing war, to address Ukraine's "systematic crisis of governance." •Fedorov was the architect of Ukraine's highly effective drone program, and as defense minister he led a drive to clean up corruption and push the stodgy old guard into retirement. Having failed to regain his post - despite widespread demonstrations calling for his reinstatement - he now looks poised to bring that fight to the broader government and its leaders, who Fedorov criticized for being "scared of change." •Given Fedorov's popularity, his call for a vote could be the most serious challenge yet to Pres. Zelensky's leadership. Zelensky has not responded yet.

RUSSIA •The Washington Post reported that Russian banks have seen record outflows in the past three months, as panicked savers rush to withdraw their money before the Kremlin can confiscate it for its war efforts. •In the year to date, $24.7 billion (2 trillion rubles) have left the country. That's roughly the same level of capital flight Russian banks experienced in the first two weeks of the war ($23 billion), before the government intervened to slow the bank run. •The resurgence of capital flight could be a sign that Ukraine's efforts to raise the cost of the war for Russia are working. It also suggests - as a former advisor to the Russian Central Bank pointed out - that "people have no trust in the Russian banking system or in the Russian financial system."

IRAN •According to a new Financial Times report, Iran's hardliners are weighing a plan to attack U.S. assets in southeastern Europe if Pres. Trump carries out his threats to escalate the war. They're also considering targeting subsea cables in the Strait of Hormuz. •As FT noted, "The threats reflect the defiant mood in Tehran, where many within the regime increasingly see a resumption of the war as a matter of when, not if."

SYRIA •Israel conducted airstrikes on the defunct Abu al Duhur military air base in northwestern Syria's Idlib province. •Prime Minister Netanyahu justified the strikes as a necessary warning shot to deter Syria's government from advancing rumored plans to host Turkish soldiers at a different air base near Aleppo. Per Netanyahu, "Israel repeatedly warned Syria that such a deployment would pose a threat to Israel’s security. Syria chose to ignore these warnings." •Naturally, the incursion angered Syria's al Sharaa government, who called it "an unjustified act of aggression, a flagrant violation of Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and a dangerous escalation that threatens security and stability in the region." •The strikes also drew an exceptionally blunt rebuke from U.S. diplomats, who have forged constructive ties with al Sharaa's government in recent months. Tom Barrack - who is both the U.S. Special Envoy to Syria and Iraq and the U.S. Ambassador to Turkey - called Israel's actions an "unnecessary escalation" and pointed out that "[t]he Al-Sharra government has neither adopted a predatory posture nor maintained proxy forces. It has, in fact, repeatedly indicated a preference for de-escalation with Israel."

TRADE •Just before his new 50% tariffs on many Canadian exports to the U.S. were about to go into effect, Pres. Trump paused them for three days to finalize a deal that Trump said was only pending the "finalization of documents." •However, three days might not be enough. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney suggested the deal isn't quite as final as Trump implied: "Substantial progress has been made, although there is important work still to be done." •In the meantime, businesses on both sides of the border are in limbo. As the head of Canada's Chamber of Commerce noted, "an extension doesn’t bring the certainty that a signed interim deal would."