Off Leash Intel · loading
4 direct mentions across 4 briefings, with 5 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
A cited poll found 76% of respondents believed Carney was right to abandon the talks, even as 38% feared they could lose their jobs.
Unverified development · updated through
A cited poll found 76% of respondents believed Carney was right to abandon the talks, even as 38% feared they could lose their jobs.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Mark Carney dossier
2 mapped developments across 1 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Kananaskis, Alberta
Prime Minister Mark Carney is hosting the G7 summit on June 16–17.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 26 August 2026 IRAN •Iran and Oman said they were close to a deal to establish "a joint temporary navigational corridor through the Strait of Hormuz and an agreement to implement a joint project to clear the Strait of mines." •The latest proposal doesn't address the issue of whether Iran and Oman will be allowed to charge ships fees for their navigational and security "services" (which, for Iran, consist mainly of not attacking transiting ships). That question still needs to be worked out in planned "technical talks." •That doesn't mean the Strait is about to fully reopen. With or without a deal with Oman, Iran seems intent on keeping the chokepoint closed until the U.S. agrees to its list of demands, which include lifting the U.S. Navy's blockade on Iranian ports and reissuing a waiver for Iranian oil sales. CANADA •The U.S. and Canada further escalated their trade war. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced retaliatory tariffs of up to 50% on U.S. exports of steel, dairy, and electronics to Canada, effective Sep. 8, and Pres. Trump fired back with plans to slap 50% tariffs on car parts and steel, starting Jan. 1. •Canada will suffer more than the U.S. under reciprocal tariffs since the Canadian economy has less buffer than the 13-times-larger U.S. economy. •But Canadians largely support their leader's decision to walk away from trade talks instead of accepting a bad deal. A new poll showed that 76% of respondents thought Carney was right to abandon talks - even though 38% of them fear they could lose their jobs as a result. SYRIA •The U.S. removed Syria from its list of state sponsors of terror, in a major achievement for Pres. Al Sharaa - who has prioritized restoring diplomatic ties with Washington and lobbied for sanctions on him and his country to be lifted. •Syria had been designated a state sponsor of terror for 47 years - since the list's inception - so its removal now is significant. It will reduce the risk and regulatory burden of working and investing in Syria, which will help unlock funding for the reconstruction Al Sharaa wants to carry out. •In another big win for Al Sharaa's government, Mazloum Abdi - the head of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces - announced that his militia has disbanded and will merge with the Syrian army under Al Sharaa's command. In return, the government agreed to recognize Kurdish cultural, civil and educational rights in Syria.
Open source reportOff Leash update 19 August 2026 UKRAINE •Mykhailo Fedorov - the popular former defense minister Pres. Zelensky sacked last month - posted a bold video to YouTube calling for new elections to be held, despite the ongoing war, to address Ukraine's "systematic crisis of governance." •Fedorov was the architect of Ukraine's highly effective drone program, and as defense minister he led a drive to clean up corruption and push the stodgy old guard into retirement. Having failed to regain his post - despite widespread demonstrations calling for his reinstatement - he now looks poised to bring that fight to the broader government and its leaders, who Fedorov criticized for being "scared of change." •Given Fedorov's popularity, his call for a vote could be the most serious challenge yet to Pres. Zelensky's leadership. Zelensky has not responded yet. RUSSIA •The Washington Post reported that Russian banks have seen record outflows in the past three months, as panicked savers rush to withdraw their money before the Kremlin can confiscate it for its war efforts. •In the year to date, $24.7 billion (2 trillion rubles) have left the country. That's roughly the same level of capital flight Russian banks experienced in the first two weeks of the war ($23 billion), before the government intervened to slow the bank run. •The resurgence of capital flight could be a sign that Ukraine's efforts to raise the cost of the war for Russia are working. It also suggests - as a former advisor to the Russian Central Bank pointed out - that "people have no trust in the Russian banking system or in the Russian financial system." IRAN •According to a new Financial Times report, Iran's hardliners are weighing a plan to attack U.S. assets in southeastern Europe if Pres. Trump carries out his threats to escalate the war. They're also considering targeting subsea cables in the Strait of Hormuz. •As FT noted, "The threats reflect the defiant mood in Tehran, where many within the regime increasingly see a resumption of the war as a matter of when, not if." SYRIA •Israel conducted airstrikes on the defunct Abu al Duhur military air base in northwestern Syria's Idlib province. •Prime Minister Netanyahu justified the strikes as a necessary warning shot to deter Syria's government from advancing rumored plans to host Turkish soldiers at a different air base near Aleppo. Per Netanyahu, "Israel repeatedly warned Syria that such a deployment would pose a threat to Israel’s security. Syria chose to ignore these warnings." •Naturally, the incursion angered Syria's al Sharaa government, who called it "an unjustified act of aggression, a flagrant violation of Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and a dangerous escalation that threatens security and stability in the region." •The strikes also drew an exceptionally blunt rebuke from U.S. diplomats, who have forged constructive ties with al Sharaa's government in recent months. Tom Barrack - who is both the U.S. Special Envoy to Syria and Iraq and the U.S. Ambassador to Turkey - called Israel's actions an "unnecessary escalation" and pointed out that "[t]he Al-Sharra government has neither adopted a predatory posture nor maintained proxy forces. It has, in fact, repeatedly indicated a preference for de-escalation with Israel." TRADE •Just before his new 50% tariffs on many Canadian exports to the U.S. were about to go into effect, Pres. Trump paused them for three days to finalize a deal that Trump said was only pending the "finalization of documents." •However, three days might not be enough. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney suggested the deal isn't quite as final as Trump implied: "Substantial progress has been made, although there is important work still to be done." •In the meantime, businesses on both sides of the border are in limbo. As the head of Canada's Chamber of Commerce noted, "an extension doesn’t bring the certainty that a signed interim deal would."
Open source reportOff Leash update 19 June IRAN •Iran's Ayatollah Khamenei bluntly rejected Pres. Trump's call for "unconditional surrender," and instead threatened "irreparable" harm to the U.S. if it joins the fray. Despite Khamenei's fiery rhetoric, Iran's cooler-headed diplomats still insist that Tehran remains open to negotiations with the U.S. •Trump remained vague about whether the U.S. would, indeed, accede to Israel's request to join its side of the conflict, leaving the door open to negotiations: "I like to make a final decision one second before it’s due, you know, because things change." [The WSJ reported that Trump privately approved plans to attack Iran but is waiting to see if Iran offers to return to the nuclear negotiating table before he gives his final approval to attack.] •According to media reports, Israel particularly wants the U.S.'s help - as well as its 30,000-lb. bunker-buster bombs and B-2 bombers to drop them from - to destroy Iran's underground nuclear facility at Fordow. Israel has neither strong enough bombs nor bombers to carry them; U.S. has both within range of Iran. •Doves opposed to U.S. involvement are invoking memories of ill-fated U.S. interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan to advocate against joining. INDIA •India's Pres. Modi met new Canadian Prime Minister Carney on the sidelines of the G7 summit Carney hosted this week. •Modi and Carney agreed to restart trade talks and restore diplomatic representation and visa processing, which is a step towards repairing the damage their bilateral relationship suffered when Canada accused India's government of backing the assassination of Sikh cleric Hardeep Singh Nijjar near Vancouver two years ago. •The very next day, Canadian intelligence published a report calling India a perpetrator of foreign influence for its involvement in Najjar's assassination - and dozens of other alleged plots the Royal Canadian Mounted Police have disrupted against Sikhs in Canada. [The report seems like a compromise to Canadian Sikhs who were angry that Carney would rekindle relations with a government that violated its sovereignty to carry out assassinations; India blew off the criticism and it didn't seem to hurt fragile-but-improving bilateral relations.] DRC •Rwandan and Congolese technical teams are busy drafting a peace agreement to end fighting in eastern DRC, and Presidents Kagame and Tshisekedi are slated to sign the truce next Friday (June 27). •Prior ceasefires have fallen through quickly - some before they were even signed - but the outlook this version seems better, given new U.S. pressure to end fighting and pacify the mineral-rich region for investment.
Open source reportOff Leash update 16 June COMING UP THIS WEEK •Canada's new Prime Minister, Mark Carney, is hosting the 51st G7 summit today and tomorrow. •The biennial Paris Airshow opens today and runs through Thursday. Four Israeli firms - Elbit Systems, Rafael, IAI and Uvision - refused France's order to remove offensive weapons from their stands, and show organizers kicked them out. •Game 5 of the NBA Finals takes place tonight, followed by Game 6 on Thursday and Game 7 (if needed) on Sunday. The Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder are tied at two games each; the first to four wins. •Thursday is a U.S. holiday for Juneteenth. •Thursday is also the latest deadline for TikTok's Chinese parent company, Bytedance, to sell the short-video app's U.S. operations to a new owner or face a shutdown, but Pres. Trump may grant Bytedance yet another extension. COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,503/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Cobalt: $33,335/ton •Copper: $9,645/ton •Gold: $3,386/toz - up on geopolitical uncertainty over Iran-Israel fighting •Lead: $1,991/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.74/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $71.26/barrel - spiked over the weekend due to Iran-Israel fighting, but now down from weekend highs on reports that Iran wants a truce •Zinc: $2,623/ton IRAN •Iran and Israel continued to exchange missile strikes over the weekend and into today. Iran has reported 224 deaths from Israeli strikes, and Israel says Iran's strikes have killed 24 since Friday. •The International Atomic Energy Agency - the UN's nuclear agency - confirmed from satellite imagery that Israel's first barrage Friday destroyed Iran's above-ground nuclear enrichment plant at Natanz. Iran hides additional undisclosed enrichment operations underground where satellite photos can't see. •Prime Minister Netanyahu said Israel's strikes are being "fully co-ordinated" with the U.S., but that seems to be the extent of U.S. involvement for now. Pres. Trump said the U.S. "could get involved" further in the future, but he seemed optimistic that that won't be necessary because the situation "is going to get resolved." •Russia's Pres. Putin has offered to mediate between Israel and Iran, and there are rumors that Iran is ready to end the fighting. IRAQ •Long War Journal pointed out that Iran-backed militias in Iraq have issued vague threats towards the U.S. and Israel, but haven't actually joined Iran's strikes on Israel and are directing their rhetorical ire at the U.S. instead. •One of the militias, Kataib Hezbollah, issued a statement yesterday indicating it would leave it to Iran to "bravely and steadfastly confront the Zionist aggression" [meaning Israel] while it focuses instead on "monitoring the movements of the American enemy’s military in the region." •Another Iran-backed U.S.-designated terrorist group in Iraq, Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba, also focused its anger on the U.S. instead of Israel and called for U.S. forces to "be completely expelled from all Iraqi lands and airspace." •There have been at least two reports of attempted drone attacks on U.S. facilities in Iraq - one on Ain al Assad airbase in western Iraq, and another near the U.S. mission in Erbil. Neither attempt was claimed yet. U.S. TRAVEL BAN •The U.S. State Department said it identified 36 more "countries of concern" that are being considered for full or partial visa bans - in addition to the 12 full and seven partial visa bans announced earlier this month. •The 36 additional countries have 60 days to act to avoid a ban by lowering high overstay rates, resolving security issues, or addressing other U.S. grievances with their citizens' travel patterns.
Open source report