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5 direct mentions across 5 briefings, with 6 linked developments.
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Mykhailo Fedorov’s call for wartime elections failed to gain broad support despite corruption scandals affecting President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government. Nearly all protesters seeking Fedorov’s reinstatement as defense minister dispersed after largely rejecting his election proposal.
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Mykhailo Fedorov’s call for wartime elections failed to gain broad support despite corruption scandals affecting President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government. Nearly all protesters seeking Fedorov’s reinstatement as defense minister dispersed after largely rejecting his election proposal.
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Mykhailo Fedorov dossier
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Ukraine
President Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov after six months. Unnamed insiders attributed the move to clashes with senior generals and established defense contractors over Fedorov’s approach to warfare.
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Chronology
Off Leash update 21 August 2026 UKRAINE •It now looks like ousted defense secretary Mykhailo Fedorov miscalculated when he launched a political challenge against Pres. Zelensky by calling for wartime elections. •Fedorov's call fell flat. Ukrainians may detest the corruption scandals dogging Zelensky's government, but the president remains widely popular - though not as popular as Fedorov - and many worry about the impact elections would have on their national unity - or on Zelensky's ability to continue leading the country through a war. •Even Fedorov's greatest supporters - the protesters who were rallying for his reinstatement as defense minister - largely disagreed with his call for elections. Nearly all of them dispersed this week, ending weeks of demonstrations. •Meanwhile, Russia's strikes on Ukraine are getting deadlier because Ukraine is short of interceptors. In March, Kyiv boasted of intercepting around 70% of incoming ballistic missiles. In July, it quietly conceded that it had intercepted only 20%. •Russia knows this, and is taking advantage of Ukraine's weakness. While it usually opens its overnight attacks by sending drone swarms to distract interceptors from the missiles that follow, last night's barrage began with ballistic missiles. •Ukraine is pleading for more interceptors - especially Patriots - but there are fewer to go around because many were used up against Iranian missiles. Countries that still have some are hoarding them, although production is ramping up to build more. Russia, though, is also accelerating missile production. IRAN •U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced plans to impose the "toughest sanctions in history" on Iran, and urged China - Iran's largest trading partner and the main buyer of its oil - to "get with the program." •China declined to partake. A spokesman for its leaders warned that "economic warfare" won't work, and called for the U.S. and Iran to negotiate a diplomatic solution instead. That suits Beijing well: it can continue buying cheap Iranian oil, and has little interest in crippling an Iranian regime busy antagonizing the U.S. CHINA •Hui Ka Yan, the billionaire founder of China's disgraced property giant, Evergrande, was sentenced to life in prison and ordered to forfeit all of his personal assets to the state. •He reportedly pleaded guilty to the state's fraud charges against him back in April - 2.5 years after he suddenly disappeared from public life, and nearly five years after Evergrande spectacularly collapsed under $300 billion in debt. That collapse exposed cracks in China's property sector that are still weighing on the economy.
Open source reportOff Leash update 20 August 2026 STRAIT OF HORMUZ •Axios reported that the U.S. has stealthily set up a shipping corridor on the Oman side of the Strait of Hormuz that has seen 15-20 tankers per day enter or exit the Persian Gulf over the past few weeks. •Those transits were not included in Kpler's recent shipping data, which showed traffic through the Strait at a three-month low last week. •The U.S.-backed transits take place at night, under the cover of darkness - and the additional cover of U.S. Air Force fighter jets ready to intercept missiles or drones Iran lobs in the general direction of the tankers. •[Thanks to U.S. strikes on Iran's radar and maritime surveillance systems, Iran has lost most of its visibility into the southern side of the Strait and is increasingly firing in the general direction of where small IRGC spotter boats observe tankers.] IRAN •The UAE announced it would end all trade with Iran on Tuesday, after accusing Iran of firing missiles into its territory. [Iran denies targeting the UAE, and claims the offending strikes were part of a false flag operation that the U.S. and / or Israel staged to provoke the UAE to impose punitive measures - like this embargo - on Iran.] •The blockade could prove devastating for Iran. The UAE is Iran's largest source of imports, supplying around $19.1 billion of non-oil goods - such as gold, electronics, and consumer goods - annually. Iran sends around $6.6 billion of exports - including food and spices - in the other direction. Dubai's role as a global financial hub with comparatively light regulation means it's also a key part of Iran's off-the-books trade and sanctions evasion. •If the UAE cracks down on illicit dealings and vigorously enforces its blockade, it could help achieve Pres. Trump's goal of forcing Iran into economic isolation. •To that end, Trump threatened Iran's trading partners yesterday, with a warning that "ANY country that allows its financial institutions, businesses, airports, or government entities to provide any type of lifeline to Iran will itself face TREMENDOUS Economic Consequences." It's not clear whether U.S. pressure influenced the UAE's decision to embargo Iran. UKRAINE •Pres. Zelensky was forced to sack his Deputy Chief of Staff, Iryna Mudra, after she was arrested on charges of money laundering. •The revelation of rot inside his own office is badly timed for Zelensky. It comes just a day after former defense minister Mykhailo Fedorov - who Zelensky also ousted, but not for cause - spoke out about a crisis in Zelensky's government and called for new elections. •Fedorov plans to continue his crusade for reform. He'll travel to the U.S. next week, and there's speculation that he'll call on U.S. officials to seek their support for his efforts to force elections. GAZA •Under pressure from critics, Israel's military said it would open criminal investigations into its troops' conduct in two cases that sparked widespread outrage: the killing of five-year-old Hind Rajab and six of her family members in Jan. 2024, and the shooting deaths of 14 medical workers and a UN employee in Mar. 2025. •Critics note that Israeli military investigations are slow and rarely result in convictions - even though the military only investigates the most egregious cases that generate the greatest public uproar. The military declined to take up three other cases in which troops killed aid workers, finding no grounds for a criminal investigation in any of those. NORTH KOREA •Kim Jong Un's influential sister, Kim Yo Jong, cast doubt on Pres. Trump's claim that her brother had had a "very positive" response to Trump's recent gestures of friendship. She said she was "completely unaware" that her brother had responded at all - though she noted he had "fond personal memories and feelings" towards Trump. •Kim proclaimed that North Korea still views joint U.S.-South Korea military drills as "provocative and aggressive" - even though they were shortened and scaled down on Trump's orders - and said that if the U.S. intended the reduction "as some kind of ‘goodwill measure’, they will not get the answer they desire." •The answer Trump desires is rumored to be Kim's agreement to meet for an eighth time this fall. That could still happen, though: CSIS's Korea chair, Victor Cha, pointed out that Kim Yo Jong often plays "bad cop" in dealings with the U.S. so that her brother can be the "good cop." Her tough talk may only be bluster.
Open source reportOff Leash update 19 August 2026 UKRAINE •Mykhailo Fedorov - the popular former defense minister Pres. Zelensky sacked last month - posted a bold video to YouTube calling for new elections to be held, despite the ongoing war, to address Ukraine's "systematic crisis of governance." •Fedorov was the architect of Ukraine's highly effective drone program, and as defense minister he led a drive to clean up corruption and push the stodgy old guard into retirement. Having failed to regain his post - despite widespread demonstrations calling for his reinstatement - he now looks poised to bring that fight to the broader government and its leaders, who Fedorov criticized for being "scared of change." •Given Fedorov's popularity, his call for a vote could be the most serious challenge yet to Pres. Zelensky's leadership. Zelensky has not responded yet. RUSSIA •The Washington Post reported that Russian banks have seen record outflows in the past three months, as panicked savers rush to withdraw their money before the Kremlin can confiscate it for its war efforts. •In the year to date, $24.7 billion (2 trillion rubles) have left the country. That's roughly the same level of capital flight Russian banks experienced in the first two weeks of the war ($23 billion), before the government intervened to slow the bank run. •The resurgence of capital flight could be a sign that Ukraine's efforts to raise the cost of the war for Russia are working. It also suggests - as a former advisor to the Russian Central Bank pointed out - that "people have no trust in the Russian banking system or in the Russian financial system." IRAN •According to a new Financial Times report, Iran's hardliners are weighing a plan to attack U.S. assets in southeastern Europe if Pres. Trump carries out his threats to escalate the war. They're also considering targeting subsea cables in the Strait of Hormuz. •As FT noted, "The threats reflect the defiant mood in Tehran, where many within the regime increasingly see a resumption of the war as a matter of when, not if." SYRIA •Israel conducted airstrikes on the defunct Abu al Duhur military air base in northwestern Syria's Idlib province. •Prime Minister Netanyahu justified the strikes as a necessary warning shot to deter Syria's government from advancing rumored plans to host Turkish soldiers at a different air base near Aleppo. Per Netanyahu, "Israel repeatedly warned Syria that such a deployment would pose a threat to Israel’s security. Syria chose to ignore these warnings." •Naturally, the incursion angered Syria's al Sharaa government, who called it "an unjustified act of aggression, a flagrant violation of Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and a dangerous escalation that threatens security and stability in the region." •The strikes also drew an exceptionally blunt rebuke from U.S. diplomats, who have forged constructive ties with al Sharaa's government in recent months. Tom Barrack - who is both the U.S. Special Envoy to Syria and Iraq and the U.S. Ambassador to Turkey - called Israel's actions an "unnecessary escalation" and pointed out that "[t]he Al-Sharra government has neither adopted a predatory posture nor maintained proxy forces. It has, in fact, repeatedly indicated a preference for de-escalation with Israel." TRADE •Just before his new 50% tariffs on many Canadian exports to the U.S. were about to go into effect, Pres. Trump paused them for three days to finalize a deal that Trump said was only pending the "finalization of documents." •However, three days might not be enough. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney suggested the deal isn't quite as final as Trump implied: "Substantial progress has been made, although there is important work still to be done." •In the meantime, businesses on both sides of the border are in limbo. As the head of Canada's Chamber of Commerce noted, "an extension doesn’t bring the certainty that a signed interim deal would."
Open source reportOff Leash update 17 July 2026 UKRAINE •Ukraine's former defense minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, isn't taking his sacking quietly. Nor were the thousands of his supporters who turned out to protest his firing. •Fedorov spoke out against Ukraine's top general, Oleksandr Syrskyi, accusing the commander in chief of "blocking all of our initiatives" and complaining that "instead of figuring out how to defeat Russia asymmetrically...hefigured out how to split the country." •Fedorov and Syrskyi clashed over Federov's efforts to modernize the military, despite the success of innovations like drone technology that he introduced. Protesters are now calling for Syrskyi to be removed instead. IRAN •U.S. airstrikes targeted infrastructure in Iran - including an airport, a train station, and several bridges - and Iran hit back at U.S. military targets in Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and (for the first known time) Syria. •Iran said the Syrian strike on a U.S. special operations command center in al Tanf was in retaliation for U.S. strikes that killed Iranian soldiers in Iranshahr. There were no U.S. casualties; the U.S. withdrew troops from al Tanf in February (probably at Pres. al Sharaa's request: al Sharaa doesn't want to get involved in the U.S.-Iran war). CHINA •In a televised address, Pres. Trump accused China of stealing voter files on about 220 million Americans and using them to influence the 2020 election in Joe Biden's favor. China vehemently denied Trump's claim, saying it "has never and will never interfere in the presidential elections of the U.S." •Shortly after Trump's address, China's leader, Xi Jinping, struck a much more friendly tone at the AI conference he's hosting in Shanghai: "With AI advancing at a staggering speed, we must ensure its development is for positive, for good, and for humanity." VENEZUELA •A CIA analysis of almost 20 years of intelligence on Venezuelan elections concluded that Venezuelan officials had "some capability in manipulating electronic voting systems" to alter up to 1.5 million votes in the country's elections since 2012. •The report cautioned that there was no definitive evidence that the Maduro regime pulled off "large-scale electronic fraud" this way (Nicolas Maduro had other ways of rigging elections in his favor, like bullying the opposition out of challenging him in polls). It also clarified that there was no evidence that Maduro's regime had any ability to influence elections in other countries using Smartmatic machines.
Open source reportOff Leash update 16 July 2026 IRAN •The U.S. carried out more strikes on Iran, including one that debilitated an empty tanker heading to Kharg Island to load oil. Iran hit back with strikes on U.S. military bases in Bahrain and Kuwait. •Iran responded to Pres. Trump's threats to strike Iranian infrastructure with an ominous warning that it would retaliate in kind and "all infrastructure in the region will be crushed under steel blows.” •Still, Iran's chief negotiator, Parliament Speaker Brig. Gen. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, signaled openness to "diplomacy and negotiations" - in addition to war - in an address to the nation. •Ghalibaf is one of the more moderate voices in Iran's leadership, and he faces resistance - and even physical attacks - from hardliners who despise the idea of negotiating with the enemy. Immediately after Ghalibaf's televised address, a foreign ministry spokesman denied that Iran had any intention of resuming talks. •Meanwhile, an internal Pentagon estimate concluded that the total cost of the Iran war could reach $80 to $100 billion - far higher than the public estimate of $31 billion, which omitted many of the costs of indirectly supporting the operation. UKRAINE •Pres. Zelensky sacked his defense minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, after just six months. Insiders say the 35-year-old leader of Ukraine's game-changing drone program clashed with older generals in his ministry and established defense contractors who resented his innovative approach to warfare. HONG KONG •Authorities in Hong Kong raided independent bookstores yesterday, seizing books with "seditious content" - reportedly including a biography of jailed pro-democracy tycoon Jimmy Lai - and arresting five booksellers for stocking content "with seditious intention." •This was the third recent round of raids on independent bookstores in Hong Kong, and part of a broader crackdown on dissent enabled by a draconian 2024 national security law that punishes "seditious intention" with up to seven years imprisonment. VENEZUELA •Venezuela's interim government announced that it will begin talks with the opposition, with the goal of "strengthening democracy." The government is floundering for legitimacy after botching its response to devastating twin earthquakes, and it probably hopes the opposition will have some better governance ideas. •The opposition's popular leader, Maria Corina Machado, will not lead talks with the government. She remains in exile - though the U.S. is now encouraging the interim government to welcome her back to Venezuela.
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