Off Leash Update: Gaza Diplomacy, Haiti Violence and Iran-Israel Risks

Off Leash update 25 October

Gaza •U.S. diplomats are hopeful that there's still a window to secure a Gaza ceasefire / hostage release deal following the death of Hamas's antagonistic leader, Yahya Sinwar. •CIA Director Burns is traveling to Qatar this weekend to meet Israeli officials and push for a deal. It's not clear whether Hamas agreed to join the Qatar talks - or who would represent Hamas if it does join talks. •Qatari mediators said they and Egyptian interlocutors had both had "some meetings...in the last couple of days" with representatives of Hamas's political office in Doha, but said there was "no clarity" over the group's negotiating plans. •PM Netanyahu said he hopes the talks will result in a ceasefire and hostage release deal, but media reports suggest he's the one who blocked previous truce proposals by moving the goalposts. There are no indications he's more willing to negotiate now that his position is stronger. Haiti •Gang violence has worsened lately in Haiti - despite the presence of a Kenya-led and UN-backed police force that arrived in June. •Earlier this week, two gangs - 400 Mawozo and Chen Mechan - seemingly deliberately targeted U.S. Embassy vehicles in Port-au-Prince, leading the Embassy to evacuate up to 20 of its "non-emergency" diplomats from the post. •Yesterday, armed gangsters shot at a UN humanitarian helicopter flying over the capital, landing at least eight shots and leading the UN to cancel its aid flights today. •The head of the UN's Integrated Office in Haiti told the UN Security Council: "The situation in Haiti has regrettably worsened." Iran •Mounting murmurs suggest Israel will launch its carefully-planned re-retaliation against Iran imminently. •Iran seems to be bracing for it and hoping it will be muted. Iranian officials have hinted that if Israel demonstrates restraint with a symbolic strike instead of a devastating one, Iran will let it be the last word and won't re-re-retaliate. •On the other hand, Iranian officials told the NYT that Ayatollah Khamenei has ordered a response if Israel assassinates senior officials or strikes oil or nuclear facilities. Russia •This week's BRICS summit in Kazan was widely seen as a victory for Pres. Putin: despite Western sanctions and opprobrium, he attracted 36 world leaders - as well as UN SecDef Guterres - to a forum where he fueled grievances with the West and its "perverse methods" and cast himself as an unfairly maligned counterweight. •Meanwhile, the WSJ reported that Russia has engaged in some perverse methods of its own by providing Yemen's Houthi rebels with satellite data to target their attacks on Red Sea shipping. Analysts said Russia's motive is to provoke instability and distract U.S. resources away from Ukraine. Sahel •Armed militants attacked a northern Nigerien border post near the frontier with Mali. Both Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen (JNIM) - a jihadist group - and Nigerien Tuareg rebels claimed the attack. The Institute for the Study of War said the dual claim "possibly indicate[s] that the two groups are coordinating their operations." JNIM hasn't previously attacked so far north, but it has previously coordinated with Malian Tuaregs - so coordinating with their Nigerien counterparts is well within the realm of possibility. Strategic Minerals •The U.S. Interior Dept. approved Australian mining company ioneer's mining project in Nevada, which will supply lithium for up to 370,000 electric vehicle batteries per year at full capacity. Environmentalists opposed and stalled the proposal, but a six-year review process led to a "science-based decision" to approve it. Construction will be funded by a $700 million loan from the U.S. Dept. of Energy and a $450 million investment from Sibanye Stillwater.