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67 direct mentions across 67 briefings, with 80 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
According to President Putin, an acknowledgment that Ukrainian long-range drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure caused problems and a fuel shortage, although he described the situation as not critical. Russia is also said to be considering gasoline imports from Kazakhstan and India.
Unverified development · updated through
According to President Putin, an acknowledgment that Ukrainian long-range drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure caused problems and a fuel shortage, although he described the situation as not critical. Russia is also said to be considering gasoline imports from Kazakhstan and India.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Vladimir Putin dossier
57 mapped developments across 10 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Ural River basin
Ural River floods are the worst in decades and not yet at their peak. Affected residents staged a rare protest demanding greater government assistance and blamed President Vladimir Putin for neglecting the crisis.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
1 supporting public source attached
Chronology
Off Leash update 29 June 2026 COMING UP THIS WEEK •Leaders from the Latin American trading bloc Mercosur meet tomorrow in Paraguay. They're expected to formally announce an economic partnership with Japan. •Tomorrow is the "deadline" that anti-immigrant groups gave undocumented immigrants to leave South Africa. There's growing concern that the protests the agitators planned for tomorrow could turn violent. •Canada celebrates Canada Day on Wednesday. •Saturday marks the semiquincentennial (250th anniversary) of the adoption of the U.S. Declaration of Independence. •The Tour de France starts Saturday in Spain. The 113th edition of the cycling race features 21 stages covering 3,300 km (2,050 miles) over 23 days. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,180/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $35,022/ton •Bitcoin: $59,983 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $13,358/ton •Ethereum: $1,579 •Gold: $4,064/toz •Lead: $1,904/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.27/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $69.85/barrel •Zinc: $3,472/ton RUSSIA •Pres. Putin conceded that Ukraine's long-range drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure "are creating problems," adding, "that's obvious." •It was the first time Putin directly acknowledged that Ukrainian strikes have caused "a certain shortage" in Russia's fuel supplies, but he insisted the situation was "not critical." •The shortage appears to be critical enough to motivate Russia to consider importing gasoline from abroad, though: media reports suggest the Kremlin is already seeking fuel imports from Kazakhstan and India. AFGHANISTAN •Pakistan carried out another round of cross-border airstrikes targeting alleged Pakistani Taliban hideouts in Afghanistan. •Afghanistan's Taliban government, as usual, said the strikes killed only civilians and complained about Pakistan's violations of its sovereignty and airspace. •The Pakistani strikes were a retaliation for - among other incidents - a militant attack the day before on the Karachi regional headquarters of the paramilitary Pakistan Rangers that killed three soldiers and was claimed by Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, a breakaway faction of the Pakistani Taliban. •Pakistan accuses the Afghan Taliban of supporting and sheltering the Pakistani Taliban and other militant groups carrying out attacks inside Pakistan, but Islamabad's real issue is that the attacks reveal its inability to defend its territory. Kabul is a convenient scapegoat to blame its internal failures on. SERBIA •Serbia's Pres. Aleksandar Vucic gave in to 18 months of student-led protests against his government and said he would step down within weeks. •However, Vucic's resignation failed to quell the protests or satisfy his critics, who - with good reason - believe he's only superficially stepping down and intends to stay in power behind the scenes. Indeed, he gave no clear timeline for elections to replace him, and said he would "help" his ruling Serbian Progressive Party in the next election. •Analysts believe his plan is to resign from the mostly-ceremonial presidency only to seek to return to the more powerful role of prime minister, which he held from 2014 to 2017. VENEZUELA •Bloomberg reported that Venezuela's popular exiled opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado, is trying to return to her country as soon as possible, in light of the disastrous earthquakes that struck last week. •Analysts suggest Machado wants to be waiting in the wings to rally her many supporters behind a bid to challenge interim President Delcy Rodriguez if Rodriguez's government bungles its disaster response. •The U.S. - which installed Rodriguez in her post after capturing her predecessor, Nicolas Maduro - reportedly denied Machado's request for help returning to Venezuela this week, with one U.S. official calling it a "political stunt." The U.S. likely prefers she bide her time and let Rodriguez's government focus on relief efforts instead of political rivalry. IRAN •The U.S. and Iran traded retaliatory strikes over the weekend before agreeing to "stand down for now" - conveniently just in time for U.S. market open. (Iran didn't confirm the detente but appears likely to uphold it.) •The NYT wrote that the four-day flare-up was part of a "necessary gambit" for Iran to assert its control over the Strait of Hormuz so it can retain leverage over the U.S. in ongoing negotiations for a final peace deal. LEBANON •Israel and Lebanon agreed to a framework for a peace deal, but didn't share details. •U.S. SecState Rubio - who helped mediate the proto-agreement - described it as only the first step in "what will be a difficult journey." The main point of the accord is to secure Lebanon's help in containing Hezbollah, which was not part of the deal and swiftly condemned it.
Open source reportOff Leash update 17 June 2026 UKRAINE •Presidents Trump and Zelensky had what Trump called a "very good" meeting on the sidelines of the G7 summit both attended in Évian, France. •Trump left the meeting pledging to do "whatever I can" to end Ukraine's war with Russia, adding that Russia "should make a deal." Zelensky has blamed his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, for putting off peace talks. •Overall, it sounds like Ukraine is moving back up the G7's agenda now that Trump's attention has refocused on it. •G7 leaders issued a joint statement recognizing Ukraine's "progress on the battlefield in recent months" and committing to send Ukraine more air defense equipment. RUSSIA •Robert Kuzovkov - a Russian painter exiled over art criticizing the Kremlin (as well as Pres. Trump and Xi Jinping) - was shot and killed in Poland. Two Belarusian men were arrested as suspects. •The Kremlin has repeatedly denied targeting dissidents, but too many Putin critics like Kuzovkov have turned up dead to blame chance. IRAN •Bloomberg News published the full text of the 14-point draft memorandum of understanding (MoU) that the U.S. and Iran already e-signed and expect to formalize on Friday. You can read it here: https://t.co/MQb4iI8wmo. •The full text is short - just one-and-a-half pages - and its language is rather vague and noncommittal. U.S. officials like Vice Pres. Vance insist it was kept deliberately ambiguous so Iran's leaders could sell it to their internal audience while agreeing to critical - but less politically palatable - specific commitments in back-channel talks. •The MoU's first point certainly seems to validate Iran's claim that the ceasefire requires Israel to stop striking Lebanon: "Iran and the United States, together with their allies in the current war, declare upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding an immediate and permanent end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon..." (emphasis added). •Israel was not party to the MoU and rejects Iran's claim that the MoU requires Israeli forces to leave Lebanon. Indeed, Israeli forces carried out fresh airstrikes on southern Lebanon today. MALI •Africa Defense Forum - AFRICOM's mouthpiece - published a new report showing that Russia's Africa Corps has been shifting its strategy in Mali after failing to deliver the security improvements Mali's junta hired them to effect. •After helplessly standing by and even retreating as jihadists overran Russian bases in April, the Russian fighters "are taking more of a backseat role" now, according to one analyst. •The Russians have shifted from northern positions to concentrate on protecting the capital, Bamako, and they're leaving Malian forces to defend the rest of the country while providing only air and intelligence support. •It's unclear how the Russian retreat will sit with the junta leaders, who have paid Wagner Group and Africa Corps almost $1 billion for their services and gotten poor results in return. Some Malian officials reportedly want to cut ties with Africa Corps.
Open source reportOff Leash update 16 June 2026 IRAN •Vice President Vance revealed that he, Pres. Trump, and Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf have already e-signed the memorandum of understanding (MoU) agreed to over the weekend. They still plan to sign the real thing on Friday in Geneva before kicking off mediated talks about the next phase of the deal, which is the 60-day period for finalizing a more detailed final agreement including limits on Iran's nuclear programs. •We still don't know what exactly is in the 14-point MoU. That worries some U.S. officials, including Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), who said he is "somewhat concerned that Iran's view of the agreement seems different than what the American negotiating team is claiming." Graham called for the release of the MoU's full text. •U.S. intelligence officials are similarly concerned that Iran's leaders won't be as agreeable in the thornier next phase of negotiations as they were in the course of negotiating this (fairly toothless) MoU. Their misgivings stem from intelligence showing that Iranian officials speak much more critically about the deal and their obligations under it when they discuss it amongst themselves than they do in front of mediators or media. ISRAEL •Even if U.S.-Iran negotiations on a final deal go smoothly, there's a risk that Israel could scupper the truce if it fails to comply with what Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says is a condition of Iran's agreement to a deal: Israel's full withdrawal from Lebanon, including the south. •Yesterday, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu defiantly vowed to keep forces in southern Lebanon "for as long as necessary." •Netanyahu is stuck in a quandary of his own making. He staked his political future on a hardline security policy focused on confronting Iran, and is now being asked by his country's only real ally - the U.S. - to back down, leaving Iran's regime in an arguably stronger position than it was pre-war. •He seems to be gambling that Iran will be willing to overlook a continued Israeli presence in Lebanon and won't scrap the U.S. peace deal over it. But he also seems to have calculated that the peace deal wouldn't survive an escalation in Israeli strikes on Iran and its proxies. •Netanyahu reportedly called off what Maj. Gen. Omer Tischler called a "broad strike sortie" on hundreds of Iranian targets last week - just one hour before the jets were due to take off, and after Netanyahu's tense phone call with Pres. Trump, in which Trump warned him against escalation. UKRAINE •G7 leaders met for a working session on Ukraine yesterday. Pres. Trump expressed hope that "maybe we could do something" about the war during the session, but the summit achieved no breakthroughs. •Pres. Zelensky, who also attended the G7 meeting, claimed that he proposed peace talks with Russia but Pres. Putin was "not ready." •Separately, the European Union (EU) formally launched the first stage of accession negotiations with Ukraine. •The process was delayed for two years because of former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's opposition to Ukrainian accession. •Orban's successor, Peter Magyar, still has concerns about how Kyiv treats its ethnic Hungarian minority, but he gave the green light for accession talks to proceed in exchange for Ukraine's commitment to strengthen ethnic Hungarians' rights. •Hungary's Magyar suggested it could take over a decade for Ukraine to achieve full EU member status. That's likely an overestimate, but - given glacial EU bureaucracy - it seems more realistic than the EU's hyperambitious target of welcoming Ukraine into the bloc as early as 2027.
Open source reportOff Leash update 9 June 2026 COMING UP THIS WEEK •Apple's annual Worldwide Developers' Conference (WWDC) kicked off yesterday. This is Tim Cook's last WWDC as CEO of Apple; investors will want to hear what the company is doing to catch up to its tech rivals' advancements in artificial intelligence. •Yesterday was World Oceans Day, which Mercator Ocean International commemorated by releasing its annual Starfish Barometer report on ocean health. This year's report found that sea levels rose by an average of 4.2 mm per year between 2012 and 2025 - almost double the rate of the previous decade. •China's Pres. Xi wraps up a two-day visit to North Korea today. The fact that Xi is visiting Kim Jong Un - and not the other way around - exemplifies the geopolitical clout Kim has achieved by forging stronger ties with Russia over Ukraine: Kim is no longer solely dependent on China, and Xi needs to treat Kim more like an equal than he did before Kim cozied up to Pres. Putin. •The FIFA Men's World Cup kicks off Thursday with a match between South Africa and co-host Mexico. Games will be played at various locations in Canada, Mexico, and the U.S., culminating in a July 19 final expected to take place at MetLife Stadium outside of New York City. •The NBA finals are also taking place this week. After last night's game, the New York Knicks are leading the San Antonio Spurs 2-1. The next games will be played tomorrow and Saturday, with additional games slated for next Tuesday and Friday if neither team has reached the four wins they need to take the series. It's the first time in 27 years that the Knicks have reached the finals. •The 94th edition of the 24 Hours of Le Mans endurance race takes place Saturday to Sunday in northwest France. •Pres. Trump turns 80 on Sunday and will (unofficially) mark the milestone by hosting UFC Freedom 250 on the White House lawn. The event will feature two co-main events: a lightweight title fight between Ilia Topuria and Justin Gaethje, and a heavyweight bout between Alex Pereira and Ciryl Gane for the interim title. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,604/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $35,538/ton •Bitcoin: $62,685 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $13,616/ton •Ethereum: $1,670 •Gold: $4,332/toz •Lead: $1,990/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.18/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $88.97/barrel •Zinc: $3,537/ton IRAN AND ISRAEL •Israel and Iran returned to war for about 15 hours, until Pres. Trump pulled Prime Minister Netanyahu back from the brink with another tense phone call. •Trump reportedly told Netanyahu that U.S. negotiators were within days of a breakthrough on nuclear talks with Iran, and would lose the opportunity to seal a lasting deal if Israel and Iran continued to exchange fire. •Iran readily agreed to pause strikes, too, but warned that it was ready to resume if Israel broke its side of the detente. (Except, apparently, in southern Lebanon, where Israeli strikes continued.) •The latest volley apparently started after Israel targeted Hezbollah sites in Lebanon. That Iran retaliated for strikes against its foreign proxies by firing directly at Israel - and ordering another of its proxies, the Houthis in Yemen, to join the fray and fire at Israel, too - shows how Iran sees its proxies' wars against Israel as an integrated part of its broader conflict. The extra dimensions that adds to truce talks will make it harder to reach a durable deal. ARMENIA •Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's pro-Western Civil Contract Party won re-election on Sunday...unless you ask the Russian media, who were instructed to portray the result - in which Civil Contract won 49.8% of the vote - as a loss for Pashinyan and highlight alleged voting irregularities. •Moscow resents Pashinyan's efforts to shift Armenia closer to Europe, and meddled in the election by banning key Armenian import categories to demonstrate the economic perks Armenia would lose if it swapped Russian suppliers for European ones. Pres. Putin pointedly warned Armenians last month that "the crisis in Ukraine began with efforts to move toward EU accession." CHINA •The U.S. Department of War added dozens of Chinese companies - including carmaker BYD and internet giants Baidu and Alibaba - to its list of firms linked to the Chinese military. The Pentagon considers listed firms to be national security threats and bars the U.S. military from doing business with them. •The companies emphatically denied having any military links, and the Chinese government criticized their blacklisting, calling it a pretext to protect American companies from strong Chinese rivals.
Open source reportOff Leash update 2 June 2026 LEBANON AND IRAN •After a call with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, Pres. Trump said Israel and Hezbollah had agreed to pause strikes and work towards a longer-term ceasefire. •Netanyahu portrayed it slightly differently: without admitting that he'd agreed to Pres. Trump's request to observe a ceasefire with Hezbollah, Netanyahu said that if Hezbollah resumes strikes, then Israel will, too. He added that the Israeli military "will continue to operate as planned in southern Lebanon" - i.e., it will only scale back its strikes around Beirut. •Several media reports suggested that Trump was motivated to intervene with Netanyahu by an ultimatum from Iran, which threatened to abandon indirect talks with the U.S. over ending the Iran war if Israel continued to strike its proxies in Lebanon. •Separately, the NYT reported that Israel didn't anticipate Hezbollah's use of first-person view drones to target its troops, and has had to re-think its strategy in southern Lebanon to account for the drone threat: "It is now a kind of deadlock in which Hezbollah suddenly looks more capable than it did when the war began and the soldiers of the Israel Defense Forces can look startlingly helpless." CHINA •According to a new report by Wirescreen, China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) repeatedly tried to buy Nvidia's cutting-edge AI chips from at least 2019 to 2025 - even after the U.S. restricted chip sales to foreign rivals like China. [Wirescreen wasn't able to confirm whether the PLA actually received or is using any Nvidia chips.] •Nvidia has long downplayed concerns about the PLA - or China's surveillance state - relying on its chips, and a spokesman reiterated that sentiment in reaction to the latest report: "China has more than enough domestic chips for all of its military applications, with millions to spare. Just like it would be nonsensical for the American military to use Chinese technology, it makes no sense for the Chinese military to depend on American technology.” UKRAINE •Russia launched one of its biggest recent assaults on Ukraine overnight, targeting several cities and killing at least 17. More are likely trapped under rubble. •The Kremlin had warned of an impending barrage for over a week before it finally launched the attack. Some analysts think the early warnings were intended to inflict a psychological toll on Ukrainians who have spent recent days on high alert, with many sleeping in subway stations or parking lots for safety. •The Economist explained why Russia has turned to targeting Ukrainian cities: "Struggling to advance on the front line, Russia has in recent months stepped up its attacks on civilian areas." RUSSIA •Bloomberg reported that senior Russian Finance Ministry officials have raised rising alarm over the unsustainable pace of defense spending, and proposed military cuts to freeze the yawning government fiscal deficit. •Defense Ministry officials vehemently oppose the idea of cutting war spending, and are even asking for more military funding. According to Bloomberg, some argue that so many Russian businesses rely on defense contracts that cuts would harm the economy. •Several officials said Pres. Putin has asked the Finance Ministry to find cuts in other parts of the budget before resorting to defense cuts, but sanctions and four years of war have already weighed heavily on government spending and there's not much fat left to trim.
Open source reportOff Leash update May 4th COMING UP THIS WEEK •Today is Star Wars Day: May the 4th be with you. In other news related to fabulous costumes, tonight is also the Met Gala. •Friday is Victory in Europe (VE) Day, marking the 81st anniversary of the formal end of WWII in Europe. •Russia celebrates Victory Day on Saturday, May 9. That traditionally involves a big parade showing off the latest military kit alongside marching military academy cadets, but the Kremlin said the hardware display would be toned down this year because of the "operational situation" in Ukraine. •Saturday is also the start of the Venice Biennale art festival. The organizers controversially re-welcomed Russia's participation in this year's event, despite its ongoing war in Ukraine that saw it banned from the 2024 Biennale. •The U.S. celebrates Mother's Day on Sunday. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,522/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $35,485/ton •Bitcoin: $79,708 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $12,997/ton •Ethereum: $2,360 •Gold: $4,583/toz •Lead: $1,949/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.84/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $103.01/barrel •Zinc: $3,345/ton IRAN •Iran sent the U.S. a new, 14-point proposal for ending the war. Pres. Trump said he would "soon be reviewing the plan that Iran has just sent to us, but can’t imagine that it would be acceptable." However, Trump added that the ongoing back and forth "could lead to something very positive for all." •Separately, Trump announced a new initiative - dubbed Project Freedom - in which U.S. ships will guide vessels that are cut off by Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz through the Strait to open seas, starting today. The Economist noted that the plan is "essentially a challenge to Iran: a bet that it would not want to take the risk of firing the first shots — or laying mines — in a challenge to the United States." •The U.S. Treasury also threatened vessels that pay tolls to Iran for safe passage through the Strait with sanctions violations. The U.S. has historically focused its limited sanctions-enforcement resources on punishing the entities closest to sanctions targets - as opposed to distant "counterparties" like shipping companies being extorted by sanctions targets - but that could change as Treasury seeks to exert "maximum pressure" on Iran. UKRAINE •Ukraine launched another wave of drone attacks deep inside Russia, targeting its Primorsk oil terminal port (which is over 620 miles or 1,000 km from Ukraine) and other energy infrastructure. •That doesn't mean the temporary ceasefire that Presidents Trump and Putin proposed after their meeting last week is off the table. Ukraine hasn't publicly accepted or rejected the offer yet, and could be firing some parting shots to improve its position ahead of possible negotiations during the detente. GERMANY •German Chancellor Friedrich Merz started a tiff with Pres. Trump when he said the U.S. is being "humiliated" in Iran. •Trump hit back by threatening to raise tariffs on European Union auto imports to the U.S. from 15% to 25% - a move that would disproportionately affect Germany, given its automaking strength - and to pull 5,000 U.S. troops out of Germany. •The U.S. has over 36,000 active-duty troops in Germany - more than in any other country outside of the U.S. except Japan - so withdrawing 5,000 of them isn't as drastic as it sounds. It merely brings U.S. force strength in Europe back to where it was before the Ukraine war. CUBA •Citing Cuba's alleged ties to Iran and Hezbollah, the U.S. slapped broad new sanctions on Cuban entities and officials involved in the "energy, defense and related materiel, metals and mining, financial services, or security sector of the Cuban economy, or any other sector of the Cuban economy." •Hours after the new sanctions were announced on Friday, Pres. Trump told an audience in Florida that the U.S. will be "taking over" Cuba "on the way back from Iran," claiming that Cuba's government will see the USS Lincoln aircraft carrier "stop about 100 yards offshore, and they'll say, 'Thank you very much. We give up'." •Cuba - which has long relied on any help it can get, including from unsavory partners - called the new sanctions and thinly-veiled threats "illegal" and "coercive." In a way, they are probably intended to coerce Havana into ending its decades-long practice of offering a "permissive environment" for governments hostile to the U.S. to run intelligence and military operations from a base only 90 miles (145 km) from Florida. •Separately, a new report from the left-leaning Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) assessed that U.S. sanctions on Cuba - which were imposed by Trump in his first term but continued through Pres. Biden's term - were "likely the primary cause" of a 148% increase in infant mortality from 2018 to 2025.
Open source reportOff Leash update 30 April MALI •Mali's junta leader, Assimi Goita, made his first public appearance since Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) launched coordinated attacks that killed or wounded several of Goita's top brass and sent the rest - including Goita - into hiding. •In his address, Goita unconvincingly claimed that "the situation is under control" and vowed to pursue "the complete neutralization of the groups involved." •Local reports suggest the situation is decidedly not under control - at least not under the government's control. •JNIM claims it has imposed a siege on the capital of Bamako, and at least four villages in the Timbuktu and Gao regions have fallen to the FLA, which now has its sights on the eponymous regional capitals. •Meanwhile, fighters from JNIM's jihadist rival, Islamic State in the Sahel Province (ISSP), took advantage of the chaos to cross the unguarded border from Niger and briefly capture the northeastern town of Menaka before the army reasserted control. IRAN •Pres. Trump rejected Iran's proposal to end the war and both Hormuz blockades but postpone nuclear negotiations for later, and instead warned Iran to "get smart soon" amidst stalled talks. •The longer it takes Iran to "get smart," the more it will cost U.S. taxpayers. Yesterday, the Pentagon's comptroller released its first public estimate of the cost of the war to date: $25 billion. •Analysts believe that figure is too low, and the Pentagon acknowledges that it does not include the costs of repairing extensive damage to U.S. bases in the region, which the Pentagon hopes "our partners also might contribute a share for." •The Center for Strategic and International Studies thinks munitions alone have cost the U.S. about $25 billion so far, and other experts estimate the total cost to date at between $40 and $50 billion - up to double the Pentagon's accounting. TERROR FOR HIRE •The Iran-linked group Harakat Ashab al Yamin al Islamia claimed credit for a stabbing attack in the London suburb of Golders Green that wounded two Jewish men. •The group has now claimed over a dozen attacks in Europe - most, like this one, targeting Jewish people and sites. •In all recent cases, the perpetrators appear to be "vandals for hire" recruited on social media - as opposed to Iranian agents or ideologically-motivated sympathizers. [Russia has adopted a similar recruiting playbook for recent foreign sabotage plots in Europe.] •It's a clever operating model. Amateur local recruits are more likely to botch the operation they were hired to carry out, but - as The Economist points out - "even an unsuccessful operation is likely to create fear and confusion." Plus, Iran doesn't have to risk its agents when it hires local sub-contractors to do their job. UKRAINE •Presidents Trump and Putin spoke by phone yesterday - their 12th call since Trump's return to office - and afterwards floated the idea of a temporary ceasefire in Ukraine to mark Russia's Victory Day on May 9. •Ukraine cautiously welcomed the idea, but said it would need to better understand the details before it could agree to a proposal that Trump and Putin came up with. VENEZUELA •In another sign of the warming relationship between Washington and the new government in Caracas, American Airlines plans to resume daily direct passenger flights between Miami and Caracas today, after a seven-year hiatus. •Tickets for the 76-seat flight sold out quickly, and American plans to add a second daily round-trip between Miami and Caracas from May 21. SOUTH SUDAN •South Sudan's Pres. Salva Kiir sacked his foreign and trade ministers and a senior security official in his latest of many recent cabinet shakeups. •Kiir is rumored to be both ill and sharply distrustful of those around him - many of whom are jostling to replace him when he dies or is ousted, lending credence to his distrust. •But after sacking so many of his deputies over questions of loyalty, he's left with a corrupt and bungling administration that appoints dead men to office and runs the country's only international airport into the ground. MEXICO •U.S. prosecutors indicted the governor of Mexico's Sinaloa state, Rubén Rocha Moya, and nine other current and former Mexican officials on charges related to helping the Sinaloa cartel traffic drugs into the U.S. and avoid arrest for doing so. •Rocha called the charges "entirely false and without foundation" and accused the U.S. of violating Mexico's sovereignty and causing trouble for its ruling leftist Morena party, of which he is a member. [Some would say Rocha is the one causing trouble for Morena by doing things that led to numerous corruption allegations.] •Either way, the episode puts Pres. Sheinbaum in a pickle. She works hard to keep a cordial relationship with Pres. Trump while defending Mexico's sovereignty. •Her deputies have asked their U.S. counterparts for advance notice of charges against sitting Morena officials so they can manage the fallout. It's not clear if they were notified in advance about Rocha's indictment.
Open source reportOff Leash update 28 April IRAN •Iran proposed a new plan to the U.S. via regional mediators. This one dodges the intractable nuclear questions that dogged prior proposals by postponing nuclear negotiations, and focuses instead on ending both blockades of the Strait of Hormuz. •Pres. Trump is reportedly not satisfied with Iran's proposal, which would be hard for him to sell as a win. It fails to resolve two key objectives of his war - barring Iran from future nuclear enrichment and doing away with its stockpile of already-enriched uranium - and only fixes Hormuz shipping, which wasn't broken before the war. RUSSIA •Iran's busy Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, continued his diplomatic tour with a visit to Moscow to discuss the ongoing war with Pres. Putin. •Putin has given Iran limited intelligence and military support, but he doesn't want to upset Israel, Gulf states, or Pres. Trump by overtly siding with Iran. •To that end, he offered Araghchi some nice compliments about how "courageously and heroically the people of Iran are fighting for their independence and for their sovereignty," but reportedly brushed off Araghchi's request to intercede with Pres. Trump to accept the plan Iran proposed for ending blockades. LEBANON •Israel and Hezbollah continue to trade near-daily strikes, though fighting has been largely constrained to the south until yesterday, when Israel struck targets in Hezbollah's stronghold in the eastern Bekaa Valley. •Hezbollah's leader, Naim Qassem, issued a defiant written statement declaring that the militant group will not "relinquish its weapons or its defenses" and demanding that the Lebanese government stop negotiating with Israel on Hezbollah's behalf. •Israel's Defense Minister, Israel Katz, angrily accused Qassem of "playing with fire…[that] will burn Hezbollah and all of Lebanon" and criticized the Lebanese government for failing to rein in or disarm the militants, who vastly outmuscle the weak Lebanese military. MALI •As the dust settles on the weekend's coordinated attacks by al Qaeda-linked Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Tuareg-led Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), it's becoming apparent that the vast assault shook Mali's government deeply. •Defense chief Gen. Sadio Camara wasn't the only high-ranking casualty. Two other senior junta figures - third-in-command Gen. Modibo Koné and military chief of staff Oumar Diarra - were badly injured and taken to heavily-guarded hospitals, where Koné reportedly died of his wounds. •Junta leader / President Assimi Goita was rushed to a secure location as the attacks began, and hasn't been heard from since. His silence is adding to concerns that his government may not survive for long. •JNIM and the FLA aren't necessarily trying to topple Goita's government and probably don't want to control Mali. Rather, they likely prefer to force concessions from the wounded regime: JNIM wants Goita to call off counterinsurgency operations against it, and the FLA seeks more autonomy - and perhaps eventually independence - for northern Tuaregs. •Emerging reports suggest that JNIM now controls Kidal, and JNIM / FLA fighters are entrenched around the cities of Mopti, Sevaré, and Gao awaiting orders that will depend on how the government responds to their demands. DRC •DRC's General Inspectorate of Mines (IGM) announced a new paramilitary "mining guard" to secure critical mineral mining sites and transport routes. •The IGM aims to eventually recruit 20,000 guards for a six-month training program before gradually deploying them to 22 mining provinces, starting with the first 2,500 to 3,000 that will deploy to Katanga in December. •Investment partnerships with the U.S. and UAE will help fund the $100 million guard program, which is essentially a downpayment on fostering a security environment that American and Emirati firms can trust to protect their future investments in DRC's mineral sector. PAKISTAN AND AFGHANISTAN •Unsurprisingly, the fragile, China-mediated truce that Pakistan and Afghanistan agreed to last month is breaking down. •Afghanistan's Taliban government accused Pakistan of targeting a university in Kunar with mortar and rocket strikes that killed seven and wounded 85. •Pakistan's military denied the accusation that it targeted a university as "a blatant lie" and said its targeting is always "precise and intelligence-based." It did not deny the strike or say what its real target was.
Open source reportOff Leash update 27 March IRAN •Pres. Trump demanded that Iran's regime reconsider the 15-point peace proposal it rejected this week, and warned that if they don't then "we'll just keep blowing them out of the water." •Trump also extended his deadline for Iran to fully lift its blockade on the Strait of Hormuz to April 6 - "per Iranian Government request." Trump has threatened to strike Iranian power stations if Tehran doesn't comply with his ultimatum. •Meanwhile, Israel took a more direct approach and assassinated Alireza Tangsiri, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) naval commander who led Iran's blockade and boasted about its success on X. •Iran has reportedly started charging some ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Lloyd's List Intelligence said at least two vessels have paid tolls in yuan after submitting manifests and crew rosters to the IRGC for "geopolitical vetting" and - ironically - sanctions screening. RUSSIA •Citing Western intelligence, The Financial Times reported that Russia is "close to completing a phased shipment of drones, medicine and food to Iran." The drones are thought to be upgraded versions of the Shahed-136s Iran sent to Russia in 2022 with improved navigation systems and a new name: Geran-2. •The Kremlin denounced reports that it's arming Iran as "false information," which means it's probably true information. The NYT reported that "Moscow sees its aid to Iran as a kind of quid pro quo for American aid to Ukraine." •Separately, Pres. Putin assembled a group of oligarchs yesterday to ask them to donate part of their largesse to help fund the war effort. At least two quickly agreed. •It was the first time Putin has directly asked Russian tycoons for help, but not the first time their companies have been shaken down to fill the war chest: some of them paid a 10% one-time windfall tax in 2023, and VAT went up by 2% (to 22%) in January. But those measures alone will only raise about one trillion rubles; Putin's war cost 13 trillion rubles last year alone. UKRAINE •Pres. Zelensky told Reuters that the Trump administration is demanding that he agree to give up parts of the Donbas still under Ukrainian control in exchange for U.S. security guarantees. •Many analysts would agree with Zelensky's assessment that Trump "still chooses a strategy of putting more pressure on the Ukrainian side." •Ukraine ceding control of that strip of the Donbas was one of Russia's firm conditions for ending the war, so by trading U.S. security guarantees for it, Trump is effectively backing Russia's position and assuming the cost of getting Ukraine to agree to it. PAKISTAN AND AFGHANISTAN •Immediately after their temporary Eid ceasefire ended, Pakistan and Afghanistan resumed attacks. Pakistani strikes killed two in Afghanistan, and Afghanistan vowed an "appropriate response." Few expected the brief truce to last beyond the holiday period.
Open source reportOff Leash update 29 Dec COMING UP THIS WEEK •China is staging a sixth round of live-fire war games around Taiwan today and tomorrow in a potential response to the record $11.1 billion arms deal the U.S. announced with Taiwan earlier this month. •Thursday is New Year's Day and many global markets are closed. •Thursday also marks two big changes in Europe: Bulgaria will adopt the Euro as the 21st member of the eurozone currency union, and Cyprus will assume the rotating presidency of the Council of Europe from Denmark. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,961/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $87,882 •Cobalt: $52,790/ton •Copper: $12,163/ton - near record highs on supply constraints, surging demand due to green energy transitions and trade policy uncertainty •Ethereum: $2,970 •Gold: $4,468/toz - another record high on demand for safe haven assets •Lead: $1,995/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.38/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $57.90/barrel •Zinc: $3,091/ton RUSSIA AND UKRAINE •Yesterday, Pres. Trump spoke with Russia's Pres. Putin by phone and then met Ukraine's Pres. Zelensky in person to discuss ideas for ending the war between Russia and Ukraine. •Trump expressed cautious optimism after his meetings, saying Russia and Ukraine are "maybe very close" to a ceasefire. Zelensky seemed to agree and estimated that the current peace proposal was "90 percent" complete. •The Kremlin appeared less enthused. Putin's aides publicly disparaged several key provisions of the proposal - including the idea of European peacekeepers upholding the truce in Ukraine - after Putin discussed it with Trump. THAILAND AND CAMBODIA •Thailand and Cambodia signed a fresh 72-hour ceasefire agreement to end another brief bout of border clashes. •The truce - which started at noon on Saturday - seems to be mostly holding up, but it does little to resolve the longstanding and complex territorial disputes underlying recent flare-ups. •Nonetheless, neither side appears interested in broadening their war, and both are likely to embrace an uneasy detente for now. GUINEA •Guinea voted for president yesterday. Provisional results are due tomorrow, with final results to follow within two weeks. •Coup leader Mamady Doumbouya is slated to win in the first round, despite initially insisting he had no plans to run and running on an uninspiring platform promising to "make Guinea an emerging country." •Doumbouya's junta barred several popular rivals from running against him, which helped his vote count but weakened the legitimacy he hoped the election would confer on his rule. •He'll now face the tall task of responsibly managing Guinea's resources - and especially its massive bauxite reserves. So far, Doumbouya has taken a pragmatic approach to resource development by accepting attractive and non-exclusive investments from diverse partners. •However, his government has kept a close hold on its mining deal details, and has yet to show how it plans to manage its windfall proceeds. SOMALILAND •On Friday, Israel became the first country to recognize the long-sought independence of the breakaway territory of Somaliland, which has been governing itself mostly peacefully since 1991 but remains part of Somalia on maps and at the UN. •Israel aims to revive momentum for the stalled Abraham Accords, a series of U.S.-brokered agreements it signed to normalize diplomatic relations with four Arab nations in 2020 that have since added only one new signatory: Kazakhstan in 2025. •For its part, Somaliland is desperate for any recognition, and hopes that Israel's opening move will inspire more of the 20 nations that Pres. Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi says are on the cusp of recognition to take the leap. •Israel's recognition drew widespread condemnation from multiple angles. Somalia's federal government in Mogadishu and its allies decried the move as a violation of sovereignty and territorial integrity. •Other countries contending with their own self-determined separatist groups - like Morocco and Nigeria - were particularly quick to condemn it, lest it inspire new rebellions elsewhere. •And Yemen's Houthi rebels warned that they would consider any Israeli presence in Somaliland - which lies across the Gulf of Aden from Houthi-controlled southern Yemen - to be "a military target for our armed forces." [In fairness, Israel may indeed be eyeing Somaliland as a base from which to target Houthi positions across the Gulf.] YEMEN •Following weeks of speculation, the Saudi Arabia-led coalition in Yemen formally warned Southern Transition Council (STC) separatists to withdraw from parts of Hadramaut province that they captured earlier this month or risk being "dealt with directly and immediately." •The warning came a day after Saudi apparently "dealt with" STC affiliates by launching airstrikes on their positions in Hadramaut. •Saudi officials declined to comment on the airstrikes and appear to be handling the issue gently to avoid stirring trouble with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which is generally a staunch Saudi ally but also supports the STC in Yemen. Both Saudi and the UAE seem keen to resolve their differences politely and behind closed doors rather than through proxies in Yemen. SYRIA •Islamic State splinter group Ansar al-Sunna claimed that it collaborated with "jihadists from another group" to carry out a mosque bombing in Homs that killed at least eight people in an Alawite area of Homs on Friday. •That sparked large protests in other predominantly Alawite parts of Syria, including Latakia, against the new government's failure to protect the Alawite minority from what they see as reprisal attacks for their loyalty to deposed dictator Bashar Al Assad (who is also an Alawite). •Syria's central government condemned the mosque attack and called for calm.
Open source reportOff Leash update 24 DEC UKRAINE AND RUSSIA •Pres. Zelensky shared the revised peace proposal that Ukraine and the U.S. have been drawing up. •The new, 20-point plan - which Zelensky called "quite solid" - calls on Russia to withdraw from some of the territory it has occupied in eastern Ukraine to create a demilitarized buffer zone. Zelensky said Ukraine would consider pulling its troops back, too. •U.S. officials will present the new plan to Russia today, but it's bound to fall on deaf ears: Pres. Putin ignored earlier proposals that were far more slanted in his favor, so he's highly unlikely to entertain this fairer one. •Separately, a car bomb killed three people near the site in Moscow where Gen. Fanil Sarvarov was assassinated earlier this week. Russia suspects Ukraine in both attacks. VENEZUELA •U.S. forces struck a 29th alleged drug boat as part of Operation Southern Spear - this time in the eastern Pacific - killing one. IRAN •During a UN Security Council session yesterday, both Iran and the U.S. insisted they're open to reviving nuclear talks, which ended when the U.S. waged a 12-day air war on Iran's nuclear sites in June. •However, the two sides can't even agree on terms for resuming talks: the U.S. demands that Iran stop all uranium enrichment before any negotiations take place, but Iran's UN Ambassador called that pre-condition "a violation to our rights as a member of the NPT" (referring to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons). YEMEN •Yemen's internationally-recognized government and the Houthi rebels they're fighting agreed to the largest prisoner swap of their 11-year civil war. •The Houthis plan to release 1,200 prisoners - including seven Saudis and 23 Sudanese - in exchange for the government freeing 1,700 Houthi prisoners. •Some lauded the swap - which was mediated by the UN and the Red Cross - as a rare bright spot for diplomacy in a conflict that otherwise seems stalemated, but others worried that the deal only rewards the Houthi's strategy of detaining civilians and aid workers for use as bargaining chips in deals like this. LIBYA •Libya's army chief, Mohammed Ali Ahmed al Haddad, died along with seven others when their plane crashed shortly after takeoff in Turkey. •Al Haddad was in Turkey on a state visit where he secured Ankara's agreement to keep troops in Libya to bolster the UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) for another year. •Investigators are studying the cause of the crash, but an initial assessment ruled out sabotage. The GNA's enfeebled Prime Minister, Abdul-Hamid Dbeibah, called it a "tragic accident," while his eastern ex-rival, Khalifa Haftar, expressed "deep sorrow over this tragic loss." (Note: I am highly skeptical. He was one of the good ones in Libya. No aircraft suddenly crashes after thirty minutes in flight unless there's a pressure activated bomb aboard )
Open source reportOff Leash update 26 Nov UKRAINE •Pres. Trump relaxed his deadline for Ukraine to agree to the peace plan its negotiators have been discussing with their U.S. counterparts. Trump's earlier (soft) deadline had been tomorrow; he now says "the deadline for me is when it's over." •That reprieve will give Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, time to meet Pres. Putin in Moscow next week to coax Putin into signing a peace deal. So far Putin has expressed little interest in peace - even on the favorable terms of the current proposal. BRAZIL •Brazil's Supreme Court ordered ex-Pres. Bolsonaro to start his 27-year prison sentence as his appeal possibilities dwindle. •Pres. Trump imposed harsh sanctions on Brazil earlier this year as punishment for prosecuting his political ally, but he abruptly lifted most of the new levies on food goods late last week - despite Brazil's defiant pursuit of Bolsonaro's conviction. •Some analysts think Trump's tariff threats backfired and gave leftist Pres. Lula a popularity boost and a chance to portray himself as an underdog standing up to a bully. VENEZUELA •Caracas was offended that several airlines - including Iberia, Gol, Latam, Avianca, TAP, and Turkish Airlines - temporarily paused flights to and from Venezuela because of a U.S. FAA warning, and Venezuela's aviation authority, INAC, ordered the airlines to resume flights within 48 hours or risk losing their flight clearance altogether. •IATA, a global aviation association, warned Venezuela that revoking clearances would backfire and further reduce "connectivity to the country, which is already one of the least connected in the region." GAZA •Hamas returned the remains of an unnamed hostage that Israeli examiners later identified as Dror Or. That leaves just two deceased hostages left in Gaza. URBANIZATION •A new UN report ranked the Indonesian capital of Jakarta as the world's most populous city, with 42 million people. Jakarta was only the 33rd largest city when the previous ranking was done in 2018, but it has since grown fast enough to outrank all 32 then-larger cities. •Dhaka, Bangladesh is now the world's second most populous city, and it's growing even faster than Jakarta is. The UN projects that Dhaka's population - currently 36 million - will surpass that of Jakarta by mid-century. •The report also noted that 45% of the world's 8.2 billion people now live in cities. That's more than twice the share of urban dwellers in 1950 (20%). •Nine of the world's 10 largest cities are in Asia; Cairo (32 million, #4) is the only non-Asian city in the top 10.
Open source reportOff Leash update 7 Nov UKRAINE •After 21 months of grueling battle, Russia appears to be on the verge of capturing the Donbas city of Pokrovsk - though Ukraine insists its forces are still resisting and are not cut off yet. •The fall of Pokrovsk would be Russia's biggest battlefield gain since seizing Bakhmut over two years ago, and it would give Russian forces a base for further advances in the Donbas. •More importantly, it would give Pres. Putin a minor win to bolster his case to Pres. Trump that Russian victory is inevitable - and thus that sending U.S. weapons to Ukraine is folly. CENTRAL ASIA •Pres. Trump hosted leaders of the C5+1 bloc (comprising 5 "Stans" - Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan - and the U.S.) for a summit focused on strengthening partnerships on critical minerals and energy yesterday. •The C5 Stans are rich in uranium, copper, gold, and rare earths; but all maintain strong (but complicated) ties with Moscow as a legacy of the Soviet era. •Ahead of the White House meeting, Kazakhstan announced that it plans to join the Abraham Accords - a series of agreements normalizing diplomatic relations between Israel and its countersignatories. •Kazakhstan already has full diplomatic relations and strong economic ties with Israel, so it has nothing left to gain from signing the Abraham Accords. Rather, its ceremonial inclusion may be a way to reinvigorate momentum for the deprioritized agreements. RUSSIA •After years of warnings that NATO had fallen far behind Russia on ammunition manufacturing, the alliance's Secretary-General, Mark Rutte, announced that NATO members are now collectively producing as many units per month as Russia is. •That may not sound like a big achievement for a bloc with a combined GDP 25 times Russia's, but it took massive investment in new and expanded production lines to overcome the gaping lead Russia had: just five months ago, Russia was making four times as much ammunition as NATO's 32 members. LIBYA •Libya's National Oil Corporation (NOC) announced a significant new onshore oil discovery in well H1-NC4 of the Ghadames Basin southwest of Tripoli. •NOC's new discovery follows OMV's find in the Sirte Basin last week, and both are signs of renewed confidence in investing in Libya's rich oil and gas potential. •Other companies are keen to join the rush, too: NOC head Masoud Suleiman recently reported that 40 firms expressed interest in the 22 oil exploration blocks being offered in the latest bidding round - which was Libya's first in over 17 years.
Open source reportOff Leash update 30 Oct CHINA •Presidents Trump and Xi met in person for the first time in six years yesterday. •It sounds like their nearly two-hour meeting went well: Trump said he would rate it a 12 on a scale of 1 to 10, and Xi said it had given him a "warm" feeling - which is probably about a 12 out of 10 on Xi's understated emotive scale. •Afterwards, Trump told reporters he would lower tariffs on most Chinese imports from 57% to 47%, and said that Xi had agreed in return to buy more U.S. soybeans, to drop restrictions on rare earths exports for a year, and to help crack down on fentanyl. RUSSIA •Just before he met Xi, Trump announced that the U.S. will soon resume nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with other countries, ending a 33-year moratorium on tests. [Insightful analysts pointed out that the "equal basis" qualifier suggests Trump is talking about testing delivery vehicles and other supporting components and not actual nuclear weapons, which no country except North Korea has tested since 1996.] •Many quickly assumed that Trump's announcement was intended to scare Xi ahead of their meeting, but Trump later clarified that his threat wasn't directed at China at all: "it had to do with others." •Trump was likely instead referring to Russia and reacting to a pair of announcements Pres. Putin made this week celebrating two separate tests of nuclear delivery systems. On Sunday, Putin said the nuclear-capable Burevestnik missile had passed its tests and would soon be deployed. Then yesterday, Putin lauded the successful test of a new, nuclear-capable underwater drone - dubbed Poseidon after the Greek god of the sea and storms - designed to trigger a tsunami. •Trump previously called Putin's Burevestnik announcement "inappropriate" and urged Putin to spend his energy on peace talks instead of weapons tests. SUDAN •The World Health Organization raised concerns over credible reports that Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) killed 460 people in the main hospital in El Fasher upon capturing the state capital from the army over the weekend. •That was only one of several documented claims that the RSF is committing ethnically-targeted atrocities in El Fasher. •RSF chief Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (aka Hemedti) unconvincingly promised to investigate the concerning accusations against his troops, but the U.S., UN, and others are calling for urgent, genuine action to prevent what many fear could become another full-blown genocide in Darfur. AFGHANISTAN •Afghanistan and Pakistan agreed to resume peace talks in Istanbul after their previous round of dialogue broke down without a resolution. •It's hard to imagine a second round of talks breaking through the intractable impasse that doomed the first one: Kabul will likely continue to deny having any sway over the Pakistani Taliban militants that Islamabad accuses the Afghan Taliban of protecting. But both at least seem to agree on avoiding a costly war over their differences. BRAZIL •Rio de Janeiro's favela raid on the Red Command crime syndicate had already ranked as the city's deadliest of its kind when police estimated they'd killed 60 gangsters. Now - upon counting bodies in a nearby wooded area - the death toll has doubled to 132, including four police. •Police arrested another 113 people and seized 118 weapons and a metric ton of drugs, validating the allegations underpinning their raid. But that hasn't stopped rights groups from criticizing their heavy-handed tactics - or leftists from complaining that the raid was part of a political gambit by Rio's conservative governor, Cláudio Castro, to look tough on crime ahead of next year's elections. •Castro may yet order more raids, as this one failed to capture its main target, senior Red Command leader Edgar Alves Andrade (aka Doca). Doca remains on the lam despite 20 outstanding warrants for his arrest and a R$100,000 ($18,660) bounty on him. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 24 Oct RUSSIA •Pres. Putin reacted angrily to new U.S. sanctions on Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil, which Pres. Trump imposed in frustration with Putin's refusal to engage in Ukraine ceasefire talks. Putin called the new measures an "unfriendly act" and chided the foreign buyers complying with them that "no self-respecting country" would cave to such pressure. •Yet Russia's major customers, including India and China, are indeed curtailing their purchases of seaborne Russian oil because of the new sanctions - at least in the short term. Oil prices rose 5% on expectations of greater competition to buy non-sanctioned oil. VENEZUELA •Two supersonic U.S. B-1 bombers flew close enough to Venezuela yesterday to cause concern for Nicolas Maduro, who is probably uneasily watching the skies for signs that Pres. Trump has begun to launch the land strikes he's been threatening. •The U.S. Lancers remained in international airspace, and Pres. Trump later rejected initial Pentagon suggestions that the sorties were part of an "attack demonstration" to intimidate Maduro. But - given recent escalatory rhetoric from both sides - this looks like more of a preview than a false alarm. SUDAN •According to media reports, representatives of "The Quad" - Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the U.S. - are meeting in Washington today to mediate between the warring sides of Sudan's civil war. •Alas, neither the army nor the Rapid Support Forces seem ready to talk peace. Both deny that they're even engaging in indirect talks, and both continue to stock up on weapons - despite an (apparently ineffective) arms embargo. NIGER •Suspected jihadist gunmen kidnapped an American missionary, Kevin Rideout, from his home just 100 meters (300 feet) from the presidential palace in Niamey. •Rideout's abduction will be a painful reminder to the junta - which operates from the presidential palace - of how badly it has failed to contain jihadists and restore security since taking power in July 2023. •Both Islamic State's Sahel Province (ISSP) and the Al Qaeda-linked Group for Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) are active in Niger and across its porous borders, and both have abducted Westerners for ransom in recent years. But it was probably ISSP - rather than JNIM - that abducted Rideout, whose cell phone was last traced to an ISSP-ridden area north of Niamey. WEST BANK •Vice Pres. Vance and Pres. Trump both categorically rejected the Israeli Knesset's preliminary vote on a proposal to annex much of the West Bank. •Vance - speaking from Israel - called it an "insult" and a "very stupid political stunt," and Trump vowed that "Israel would lose all of its support from the United States" if the measure wins full approval. •Most of Prime Minister Netanyahu's Likud party would agree with Vance that the proposal was an opposition stunt designed to provoke outcry, and the bill is unlikely to clear the remaining three votes it would need to pass. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 23 Oct RUSSIA •The U.S. imposed new sanctions on Russian oil majors Lukoil and Rosneft yesterday - one week after the UK sanctioned the same companies. •These were the first war-related sanctions the U.S. has imposed on Russia since Pres. Trump returned to office, and Trump's Treasury Secretary - Scott Bessent - directly linked them to Pres. Putin's stonewalling on peace talks: "Given President Putin’s refusal to end this senseless war, Treasury is sanctioning Russia’s two largest oil companies that fund the Kremlin’s war machine." •The new measures are a significant escalation - Pres. Trump called them "tremendous sanctions" - and they appear intended to push Putin to agree to talks. They'll also help nudge India to reduce its Russian oil imports, since Indian refiners buy much of their Russian oil from the newly-sanctioned companies. •The EU also slapped new sanctions on Russia yesterday. The EU's new sanctions package - its 19th over the Ukraine war - targeted Russian liquefied natural gas imports. CARTELS •The U.S. military carried out its eighth and ninth known strikes on alleged drug trafficking vessels in Latin America, killing five people between the two boats. •Unlike the previous seven known strikes, which took place in the Caribbean, these two both targeted boats in the eastern Pacific Ocean. •Following the latest strikes, Pres. Trump warned that his administration is "totally prepared" to expand its anti-cartel operations to strike drug-linked targets on land, which would be a significant escalation. However, he noted that land strikes may require Congress's approval. VENEZUELA •Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro - who, not unreasonably, perceives himself as the target of U.S. anti-cartel operations in Latin America - announced that he has deployed an arsenal of over 5,000 Russian-made Igla-S anti-aircraft missiles "to guarantee peace, stability, and tranquility" in the face of unspoken U.S. threats against him. •Despite his lip service toward peace, it's Maduro - not the U.S. - who is explicitly banging war drums. In addition to deploying anti-aircraft batteries, he has ramped up militia recruitment and launched large, televised military exercises that feed into his regime's warnings that Venezuelans should prepare "for the worst" and ready themselves for war. •Satellite imagery analysts have been unable to spot any of the 5,000+ Igla-S missiles Maduro claims to have deployed, and Maduro has a habit of grossly exaggerating numerical claims like this (to wit, he claimed to have mobilized more people willing to fight for him than voted for him). The true number of Igla-S missiles in Venezuela is far fewer than 5,000 GAZA •The Israeli Knesset passed the first of four votes required to approve a bill allowing Israel to annex the West Bank - despite clear international opprobrium. •Sec Rubio reiterated U.S. opposition to annexation and called the bill "counterproductive" and "threatening to the peace deal." Even Prime Minister Netanyahu's Likud party opposed it and accused its proponents of trying to "damage our relations with the United States." •The measure still faces three more votes before it can be fully approved, and Netanyahu will likely press the Likud members who abstained from the first vote to fall into line and vote against the next ones. DRC •China's Twangiza Mining declared force majeure after a drone strike took out power at its South Kivu gold mine. •Twangiza has had a rough go of it lately: Rwanda-backed M23 rebels occupied its mine in May, and - with the help of Twangiza's own employees - have since looted around $70 million worth of gold and $5 million in equipment and materials from the site. Their loot was secreted over the border to Rwanda for export, with the proceeds used to fund the Rwandan/M23's war. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 5 Sept UKRAINE •France's Pres. Macron announced that 26 countries have formally agreed to be "present on the ground, in the sea or in the air” to guarantee Ukraine's security in a potential future peace deal with Russia. •Macron was intentionally vague about what that commitment really means because the group does not wish to "reveal the details of our organization to Russia." •Several signatories - including Germany, Italy, Poland, and the U.S. - have already rejected the idea of having troops on the ground in Ukraine, and so far only Estonia, France, and the UK have publicly entertained the idea of sending ground troops. The Kremlin obviously hates the idea. •Pres. Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, attended the summit Macron co-hosted with the UK's Prime Minister Starmer, and Trump apparently dialed in, too. Their participation reinforced U.S. backing for a European-led post-war plan. •Trump seemingly surprised Macron by taking a tough tone on Pres. Putin after the pair's fairly friendly meeting in Alaska last month. On yesterday's call, Trump urged the 30 heads of state in attendance not to buy Russian oil, and to redouble pressure on China to stop funding Russia's war effort. AFGHANISTAN •As the dust settles on Sunday's earthquake in northeast Afghanistan, reports are emerging that some (all-male) first responders abided by Taliban-directed cultural norms and refused to help women and girls trapped in the rubble, leaving them to wait for female rescuers. •As a result, women may represent a disproportionate share of the 2,200 killed and 3,600 injured in the disaster when the Taliban government eventually releases a gender breakdown of casualties. Or - if casualty statistics were a woman's job before the Taliban banned women from working - we may never see that breakdown at all. DRC •DRC declared a new Ebola outbreak in its south-central Kasai province, which borders Angola. •So far, health officials have counted 15 deaths and 28 suspected cases in the current outbreak, which is DRC's first since 2022 - and Kasai's first since 2008. •Kinshasa is well-versed in dealing with Ebola, and keeps an ample "stockpile of treatments" - including vaccines - on hand to deploy to new outbreaks like this. GAZA •Hamas said it was ready to release all 20 surviving hostages in exchange for an end to the war and Israel's full military withdrawal from Gaza, but Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu - who demands Hamas's full disarmament too - quickly rejected its latest offer as "spin" and "nothing new." •Israel still hasn't formally responded to the ceasefire proposal Hamas agreed to last week, but its mounting military offensive on Gaza City seems like a negative sign. VENEZUELA •The U.S. Dept. of Defense (which is soon to be renamed the "Department of War") reported that two Venezuelan military jets buzzed one of the U.S. Navy's guided missile destroyers operating in international waters off the coast of Venezuela in a "highly provocative" attempt "to interfere with our counter-narco-terror operations." •The Pentagon responded with a direct warning to Pres. Maduro's government: "The cartel running Venezuela is strongly advised not to pursue any further effort to obstruct, deter or interfere with counter-narcotics and counter-terror operations carried out by the US military." Editor note to Venezuelan military: Fuck Around and Find Out!
Open source reportOff Leash update. 3 Sept VENEZUELA •The U.S. carried out what the Pentagon called a "precision strike against a drug vessel operated by a designated narco-terrorist organization," killing 11 aboard and marking the first kinetic action of Pres. Trump's recently-amplified campaign against cartels. •Trump later said those aboard the targeted vessel - 11 of whom were reportedly killed in the strike - had been "positively identified" as members of the Tren de Aragua drug cartel, and repeated his claim that Venezuela's Pres. Maduro is the cartel's leader. •While some analysts reject the notion that Maduro directly controls Tren de Aragua, many read Trump's latest statement as the strongest suggestion yet that his anti-cartel campaign could - as Maduro fears - be used to target the Venezuelan regime. GAZA •The NYT reported on an emerging rift between Prime Minister Netanyahu and several of his top military and security officials over Netanyahu's stubborn opposition to a Gaza ceasefire deal. •Netanyahu's military chief of staff, national security adviser, foreign minister, and Mossad chief are reportedly among those advocating for a negotiated, phased peace deal. •While none of the officials opposing Netanyahu's stance have broken from protocol to publicly dissent, the fact that officials are anonymously speaking to the press about it reveals a real rift within Netanyahu's administration. •Meanwhile, the military is pressing forward with the other path: an offensive on Gaza City. •However, commanders are reportedly struggling to recruit the additional 60,000 reservists they'll need for the new offensive. •Many veterans and reservists have joined growing calls to end the war, and those who favor Netanyahu's tougher approach are already on active duty carrying it out. •New recruits are hard to find among the war-weary public - up to 80% of whom want Netanyahu to strike a deal to end the war and bring the hostages home, per recent polls. It's shocking that PM Netanyahu cannot get his own sons to serve their country in wartime. PALESTINIAN STATEHOOD •Belgium said it would join Australia, Canada, France, and the UK in recognizing Palestinian statehood at the UN General Assembly this month. •Like the UK, Belgium has attached conditions to its recognition: Hamas must first release all hostages and relinquish "any role in managing Palestine." CHINA •Judging by the reporting from China's gathering of world leaders for this week's military celebrations, the event has been a marvelous success. •State media captured Pres. Xi having a jolly good time with his Russian, Indian, and North Korean counterparts - Pres. Putin, Prime Minister Modi, and dictator Kim Jong Un - and all seem in great spirits today for the best part: Xi's mighty military parade. NORTH KOREA •It's Take Your Daughter to Work Day for Kim Jong Un's only child, "Dear Daughter" Kim Ju-ae, who joined her father on his slow-moving bulletproof train to Beijing and is attending this week's festivities by his side. •Ju-ae - who is thought to be about 12 years old - has been accompanying her father to important parades. UKRAINE •Speaking in China, Russia's Pres. Putin told Slovak Prime Minister Fico that he'd reached a "mutual understanding" on Ukraine with Pres. Trump when the two met in Alaska last month. •He then seemed to squash hopes for a near-term peace deal by reiterating his tired refrain that the "root causes of the crisis" - i.e., Ukraine's independence and westward tilt - "must be eliminated" first. TECHNOLOGY •U.S. Federal Judge Amit P. Mehta ordered Google to share some of its search result data with rival companies to remedy Google's monopoly on search. Notably, the decision does not require Google to sell its browser, Chrome. •This was the first U.S. antitrust lawsuit against a modern tech major, and it sets a somewhat lenient precedent for how U.S. courts will regulate potential abuses of power by tech companies.
Open source reportOff Leash update 27 Aug COMING UP THIS WEEK •The two-day Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit starts Sunday. China's Pres. Xi, Russia's Pres. Putin, and India's Prime Minister Modi will all attend, but the meetings aren't expected to lead to groundbreaking new declarations or alliances. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,638/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $112,266 •Cobalt: $33,335/ton •Copper: $9,837/ton •Ethereum: $4,624 •Gold: $3,396/toz •Lead: $1,988/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.87/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $64.19/barrel •Zinc: $2,814/ton TRADE •Higher U.S. tariffs on India - which are, effectively, secondary sanctions on India for buying Russian oil - went into effect today. •Some feel India was unfairly singled out for an exceptionally high tariff rate of 50%, despite being largely aligned with U.S. geopolitical priorities and buying far less Russian oil than China, which is more of a geopolitical rival and yet enjoys a far lower tariff rate than 50% (for now). UKRAINE •Russian forces captured villages in Ukraine's Dnipropetrovsk region for the first time. Analysts suggest Putin is seeking new bargaining chips in case he's pushed to start negotiating a peace deal with Ukraine. GAZA •Two Israeli strikes on Nasser Hospital in southern Gaza on Monday killed at least 20, including five journalists, and drew widespread condemnation - including from the UN, which said there "needs to be justice" for the strike. Israel said it was aiming for a "camera that was positioned by Hamas" at the hospital. SAHEL •Russia's state-owned nuclear power company, Rosatom, signed a cooperation agreement with the junta in Niger to explore the radical possibility of building Africa's first nuclear power plant in the Nigerien desert. •Niger's current fiscal and technological state renders the construction of a nuclear power plant there virtually impossible - even with Rosatom's strongest. The cooperation agreement is probably more of a symbol of a switch of loyalty from France - whose state-owned Orano mined Niger's uranium for over 50 years - to Russia. DRC •DRC and the M23 resumed mediated peace talks in Doha, despite the M23's continued attacks in eastern DRC. •Both sides insist they're still serious about talking peace, but they've ignored self-set deadlines to resume talks by Aug. 8 and to finalize a ceasefire by Aug. 18, and have no additional motivation to seal a deal now. NORTH KOREA •Following a meeting with South Korea's Pres. Lee Jae-myung, Pres. Trump said he hoped to meet Lee's northern rival, Kim Jong Un, "in the appropriate future." It would be the fourth meeting between Kim and Trump.
Open source reportOff Leash update 20 Aug GAZA •Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu hasn't publicly commented on the ceasefire proposal Hamas accepted and put forward for Netanyahu's (unlikely) approval. •The proposal on the table would reportedly entail only a partial hostage release of 10 living hostages - about half the 20 or so thought to be left - and 18 bodies, in exchange for a 60-day ceasefire and a partial Israeli withdrawal from Gaza City operations. •That falls short of the "all or nothing" deal Netanyahu demanded last week, and the hardliners who have Netanyahu's ear - and could bring down his government - are vocally denouncing the proposal. •He will probably end up rejecting it, but - as The Economist pointed out - the fact that he hasn't already suggests his political calculus may have shifted slightly in light of last weekend's mass protests urging an end to the war and a hostage deal. UKRAINE •The White House says Pres. Putin has agreed to a direct bilateral meeting with Pres. Zelensky, followed - "if necessary" - by a trilateral meeting with Pres. Trump (though Trump thinks "it would be better" if Putin and Zelensky meet without him). •Despite Putin's theoretical agreement to a summit, the Kremlin is already dragging its feet on making one happen. A Russian deputy UN delegate complained about having "a meeting for the sake of a meeting," and Russia's Foreign Minister proposed some extra bureaucratic steps to stall planning. •Analysts say Putin isn't interested in talking to Zelensky except to accept Zelensky's capitulation. MEXICO •On Monday, the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) announced a "bold bilateral initiative" with Mexico to crack down on cartels smuggling drugs - including fentanyl - across the border into the U.S. •Mexico's Pres. Sheinbaum later said the DEA's announcement was premature, but she acknowledged that the two neighbors are indeed on the verge of signing a new security agreement that would significantly expand their collaboration against cartels. DRC •Human Rights Watch reported that Rwanda-backed M23 rebels summarily executed over 140 civilians in ethnic Hutu areas near Virunga National Park during July 2025. •The M23 didn't deny perpetrating the attacks, but it rejected claims that those slain were civilian farmers. The M23 insists - against evidence - that farmlands "do not exist" in the area. •In any case, it wasn't farmers that the M23 was after. The mostly-Tutsi M23 is seeking to root out militants from other armed groups, including the Hutu-led rival Rwandan group Forces Démocratiques de Libération du Rwanda (FDLR), which has been operating in the area for decades. •Survivors reported that some of the M23 attackers wore Rwandan military uniforms and spoke with Rwandan accents, corroborating multiple longstanding reports that Rwandan troops are actively involved in the M23's atrocities - despite Rwanda's Pres. Kagame's insistence to the contrary.
Open source reportOff Leash update 11 Aug COMING UP THIS WEEK •July U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data comes out tomorrow. Analyst consensus estimates predict a 2.8% year-over-year rise in overall prices due to the effect of new tariffs on imported goods. •Tomorrow is also the end of the 90-day tariff pause Pres. Trump agreed with China to temporarily reduce U.S. tariffs on most Chinese imports from a punishing 145% to a more tolerable 30%. Envoys have aligned on an extension in principle, but it still needs to be formalized. •Presidents Trump and Putin will meet in Alaska on Friday. More on that below. •Beijing hosts the inaugural World Humanoid Robot Games starting Friday. Over 500 humanoid "athletes" will compete in 538 events within 26 different disciplines, ranging from track and field to 5-a-side football (soccer). COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,609/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $120,596 •Cobalt: $33,335/ton •Copper: $9,762/ton •Ethereum: $4,198 •Gold: $3,363/toz - [Gold futures rose after the U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency unexpectedly ruled that one-kilo and 100-ounce gold bars would be subject to new import tariffs - including a 39% levy on imports from Switzerland, a top exporter of gold to the U.S. Markets then calmed after the White House said it will soon issue an executive order "clarifying misinformation" about tariffs on gold bars.] •Lead: $2,008/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.92/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $64.00/barrel •Zinc: $2,827/ton UKRAINE •Following U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff's meetings in Moscow last week, the White House announced that Presidents Trump and Putin will meet in person in Alaska this Friday (Aug. 15) to discuss ideas for ending the war in Ukraine. •Trump noted that a possible ceasefire proposal would involve "some swapping of territories," which analysts took to mean that Ukraine would be asked to cede some of its eastern regions to their Russian occupants. •Ukraine has repeatedly rejected the idea of a land swap, and Pres. Zelensky pre-emptively reiterated that position yesterday in advance of Friday's talks. Zelensky wasn't invited to Alaska on Friday, and Ukrainians are worried that Trump will make unwanted concessions to Putin on their behalf. •[Zelensky also pointed out the irony of the Putin-Trump meeting - in which Putin hopes to reestablish control over eastern Ukraine largely on the basis that it was once Russian territory - taking place in Alaska, which was also previously Russian territory. A cash-strapped Russia sold Alaska to the U.S. in 1867 for $7.2 million (about $154 million today), and thus far Putin hasn't mentioned wanting to take it back.] •Seven European leaders - including France's Pres. Macron and Germany's Chancellor Merz - penned a joint statement standing behind a sidelined Ukraine and declaring that "the path to peace in Ukraine cannot be decided without Ukraine." European foreign ministers will meet today to align their support for Ukraine ahead of Friday's summit excluding it. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 7 August UKRAINE •U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff met Pres. Putin in Moscow this week, and Pres. Trump said Witkoff made "great progress" nudging Putin towards a Ukraine ceasefire deal he could agree to. •Next, Trump and Putin plan to meet in the coming days to continue where Witkoff left off. •Trilateral talks between Presidents Trump, Putin, and Zelensky could follow - though it's unclear whether either Putin or Zelensky has agreed to participate yet. DRC •UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk dashed hopes for the ceasefire DRC signed with Rwanda-backed M23 rebels on June 19 with a new report suggesting the M23 defied the truce and instead escalated its violence in North Kivu in July. The UN counted at least 319 civilian deaths from M23 massacres between July 9 and 21. •Presidents Tshisekedi and Kagame are still due to meet in the coming months to agree on the details of their fraying truce. IRAN •Iran closed government offices in half its provinces yesterday to save water and electricity amidst an ongoing dual shortage exacerbated by five years of drought and soaring temperatures. •Tehran is particularly affected, with water pressure halved or worse in 80% of its households. Authorities are encouraging residents to wait out the latest heatwave elsewhere to prolong what little water remains in the reservoirs feeding the capital, but they fear taps could run dry within weeks. SUDAN •State media reported that Sudan's air force blew up an Emirati plane carrying 40 alleged Colombian mercenaries as it landed at Darfur's Nyala airport, which is controlled by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) fighting the army. •Sudan (credibly) accuses the UAE of supplying the RSF with weapons and mercenaries, and says Nyala airport is the main entry point for both. •Colombia's Pres. Petro seemed to acknowledge reports of Colombian mercenaries fighting alongside the RSF, but has made his distaste for it clear. After yesterday's report that Colombian fighters were aboard the Nyala-bound plane, Petro called for a ban on mercenary activity. GHANA •A helicopter crash killed Ghana's Ministers of Defense and Environment - as well as eight other officials - en route to a conference on illegal mining. There are no reports of foul play yet. TRADE •New U.S. tariffs on imports from around 90 countries came into effect at midnight this morning. •In addition, Pres. Trump threatened to impose a new, 100% tariff on semiconductor imports to the U.S. - but with a key loophole exempting companies that pledge new investment in the U.S.
Open source reportOff Leash update 5 August UKRAINE •Pres. Trump said he may send envoy Steve Witkoff to Russia this week to push Pres. Putin towards a Ukraine ceasefire: "We’ve got to get to a deal where people stop getting killed." •Last Monday, Trump gave Putin 10 to 12 days to agree to a truce or face new sanctions - though Trump himself conceded that Putin could well ignore his ultimatum. Witkoff's visit may be a last-ditch effort to reach a deal before Trump's deadline. JAPAN •Australia signed a A$10 billion ($6.5 billion) deal with Japan's Mitsubishi Heavy Industries to build 11 Mogami-class multi-role warships for the Royal Australian Navy. The first three frigates will be built in Japan and delivered starting in 2029; the subsequent eight units will be built in Western Australia by Australia's own Austral (with Japanese help). •Japan ended its military export ban in 2014, and this is its largest defense deal since. It's also Australia's largest-ever defense deal. OIL •BP announced its largest new discovery in decades around 400 km offshore Brazil. Lab analysis will quantify the full extent of the discovery. •Separately, Wood Mackenzie said it expects Suriname to surpass Guyana in new oil exploration and drilling activity in 2025. Petronas, Chevron, Shell, and Total Energies are all actively operating in Suriname this year, thanks to recent Surinamese investment in licensing and regulating its natural resources.
Open source reportOff Leash update 22 July UKRAINE •Pres. Zelensky announced that Ukraine and Russia will meet for peace talks in Istanbul tomorrow. •Zelensky seems more open to an immediate ceasefire than Pres. Putin does. The Kremlin is already managing expectations for the summit: a spokesman told reporters not "to expect any breakthroughs in the category of miracles - it is hardly possible in the current situation." •Separately, the NYT reported that Russia's Iranian-designed Shahed drones have become better at hitting their targets - despite parallel improvements in Ukraine's air defenses. Last year, 7% of Shahed fire breached air defenses to reach its target. This year to date, that rate has reached 11%. IRAN •Iran responded to the EU's threat to reimpose UN nuclear sanctions in the absence of a new nuclear deal by convening talks with the UK, France, and Germany starting this Friday. •If those go well, they could open the door to new nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran - although Iranian officials note that there are currently "no plans to hold talks with the United States," suggesting that Iran is still smarting from U.S. strikes on its nuclear facilities last month. CHINA •Chinese Premier Li Qiang inaugurated the construction of a massive dam on Tibet's Yarlung Zangbo River that will become the world's largest green energy plant. The 1.2 trillion yuan ($167 billion) project will take 10 years or more to complete. •Unlike DRC's Grand Inga Dam - which, at ~40-70 gigawatts, would have a capacity somewhere between Three Gorges (23 gigawatts) and the new dam in Tibet (70 gigawatts) *IF* it's ever completed - investors have high confidence in the ambitious new stimulus-supported project. Chinese stock and bond prices rose after Premier Li's announcement yesterday. •Separately, Chinese authorities accused local governments and hospitals in western Gansu Province of tampering with blood tests to cover up evidence of lead poisoning affecting over 250 kindergartners. •The cover-up might have worked if the initial offense had been less egregious: school staff jazzed up kids' lunches with powdered pigments - which were clearly marked as inedible and contained 20% lead - to make the food look better in marketing photos. •The resulting symptoms of lead poisoning were so obvious that parents doubted local blood test results showing their kids were fine, and took their kids to other provinces for untampered testing that confirmed dangerously elevated blood lead levels. VENEZUELA •Venezuela's sanctioned Attorney General, Tarek Saab, opened an investigation into allegations that 252 Venezuelan migrants - purportedly gang members - who were deported from the U.S. were tortured in El Salvador's CECOT detention center before their repatriation to Venezuela as part of a trilateral prisoner swap last week. •Saab didn't mention how the nearly 1,000 political prisoners still languishing in Venezuelan jails are being treated. ISRAEL •Yesterday, foreign ministers from 25 countries - including the UK and a majority of EU member states - signed a statement declaring that Israel's "denial of essential humanitarian assistance to the civilian population [of Gaza] is unacceptable," and concluding that "the war in Gaza must end now." •Pope Leo joined in the criticism, expressing his "deep sorrow" and calling for an end to the "barbarity of war" after Israeli shelling damaged Gaza's only Catholic church, killing three and wounding nine (including a priest). •White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt acknowledged that Pres. Trump was also "caught off guard" by Israel's go-it-alone airstrikes on Syria and shelling of Gaza's Holy Family Church, and "quickly called the [Israeli] prime minister to rectify these situations." 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 15July CRYPTOCURRENCY •The main factor driving crypto prices to record highs over the weekend was optimism about a trio of crypto-friendly bills that the U.S. House will consider this week (which House Republicans have dubbed "Crypto Week." Here are the headlines for each: oThe GENIUS Act establishes a rather light regulatory stance on stablecoins like Tether (USDT) that are pegged to fiat currencies. The Senate has already approved it, and the House is expected to pass it this week. oThe CLARITY Act would split regulatory authority for cryptocurrencies between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which would regulate security-like tokens, and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which would regulate commodity-like tokens - presumably with a lighter touch. oThe Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act would preemptively ban the Federal Reserve from issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC). Crypto advocates like this because it keeps the government out of the industry. RUSSIA AND UKRAINE •Pres. Trump has made no secret of his frustration with his Russian counterpart's recalcitrance lately. Yesterday, he said the U.S. would aid the other side of Pres. Putin's war by helping Europe send more weapons to Ukraine. He also threatened "very severe tariffs" if Putin doesn't agree to a peace deal within 50 days. •The most severe tariffs that Trump could slap on Putin aren't direct levies: Russia exports little to the U.S., thanks to increasingly severe sanctions over Putin's war with Ukraine. •Rather, the most punishing new tariffs Trump could impose on Russia are indirect ones that penalize other countries that are still trading with it, leaving Moscow with even fewer willing trading partners. •Meanwhile in Ukraine, Pres. Zelensky said he plans to nominate first deputy prime minister Yulia Svyrydenko to replace longstanding prime minister Denys Shmyhal, who will become defense minister. Zelensky cited the need to "renew" the government amidst stalled peace talks and mounting public cynicism about the government. SYRIA •Over 50 people have now died in Druze-Bedouin violence in Sweida, southern Syria. •Syria's new government has repeatedly pledged to protect the rights of minority groups like the Druze, but its critics say those pledges are either a disingenuous effort to rebrand the ex-jihadists' image or an excuse to grab power in southern Druze areas where they lack control. Or both. •Interior Minister Anas Khattab added weight to the latter criticism in a social media post citing "the absence of state institutions" in Sweida as "a primary reason for the ongoing tensions," and concluding that "[t]here is no solution to this except by imposing security" on the region. •Thus, the government moved troops south to "quickly and decisively" quash the violence, siding mostly with the Bedouin (who share Syria's leaders' Sunni faith) and against the Druze. Instead, armed Druze quickly and decisively attacked the government troops, who comprised nearly half of yesterday's casualties. •Israel joined the Druze in firing at the incoming Syrian tanks. Israel's defense minister said the airstrikes sent a "clear warning" that Israel - which is home to a large and militarily active Druze minority - "will not allow harm to come to the Druze in Syria." Israel's quieter secondary motive is to prevent Syrian forces it doesn't trust from filling the power gap in the south and amassing arms and troops along the Israeli-Syrian border. CHINA •New Chinese data showed 5.2% year-on-year GDP growth in the second quarter. That was better than analysts had expected, suggesting that Beijing's consumer subsidies, monetary easing, and infrastructure spending successfully offset the negative effects of higher U.S. tariffs. •Separately, China introduced a new "digital ID" program today. The government says the program will improve "information security," but privacy advocates say it will facilitate 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 7 July COMING UP THIS WEEK •Senior officials from BRICS countries - Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and the six non-founding countries admitted to the club later but excluded from its acronym - met in Brazil today and yesterday. Six leaders - including Presidents Xi and Putin - had more important things to do and sent representatives in their stead. •Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is visiting the White House today, marking his third visit since January. Pres. Trump expressed hope that his meeting with Netanyahu could help finalize a Gaza ceasefire deal in the next week. •Trump is also meeting the leaders of five African countries - Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mauritania, and Senegal - this week. Trade will be on the agenda: all five have significant untapped deposits of various natural resources but trade little with the U.S. •Wednesday is the postponed deadline for Pres. Trump's new tariffs to go into effect. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent has hinted that the deadline could be extended again to allow more time to secure bilateral trade deals. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,590/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $108,666 •Cobalt: $33,335/ton •Copper: $9,865/ton •Ethereum: $2,563 •Gold: $3,303/toz •Lead: $2,059/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.30/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $66.94/barrel •Zinc: $2,724/ton GAZA •Israel and Hamas both remained noncommittal but cautiously optimistic about the Egyptian- and Qatari-mediated (and U.S.-backed) ceasefire proposal currently on the table. •The terms of that proposal are still hazy, but early reports suggest it would provide for a 60-day ceasefire, during which Hamas would release 10 living hostages and 18 bodies in three separate batches (and Israel would release Palestinian prisoners) •Israel and Hamas would then start "proximity talks" - negotiations to hammer out the details - "as soon as possible," according to an Israeli diplomat. AFGHANISTAN •Russia became the first country to officially recognize Afghanistan's Taliban government, nearly four years after it regained control of the country. •Russia's foreign ministry said it looked forward to "productive bilateral cooperation between our countries in various fields" - which probably do not include strengthening democratic or human rights protections. VENEZUELA •Venezuela inaugurated the first Kalashnikov ammunition plant in the Americas last week. •Though the plant opened a day before Venezuela's independence day (July 5), it was not exactly an independent endeavor: it was built by the Kremlin's weapons export agency, Rosoboronexport, and will be operated by Russia's state-owned Rostec. IRAN •Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, appeared in public for the first time since the 12-day war with Israel to celebrate the Shia holiday of Ashura. •Khamenei hid out in a bunker during the war as Pres. Trump mused about assassinating him. There was little doubt that he had survived, but his supporters were nonetheless glad to see him alive and well. •Separately, the NYT wrote that Iran had hoped to use this week's BRICS summit to rally the group to condemn the U.S. strikes on its nuclear facilities at the end of the brief war, but failed to gain much traction. Russia, of course, leapt at the chance to criticize the U.S. for "unprovoked act of aggression," but China merely called for "restraint," and Brazil stayed out of it. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 30 June COMING UP THIS WEEK •The Wimbledon Championships tennis tournament starts today and lasts two weeks. •Bulgaria will adopt the Euro starting tomorrow, becoming the 21st member of the Eurozone. •Canada Day is tomorrow, July 1, and the U.S. celebrates its 249th birthday - as well as the annual Nathan's International Hot Dog Eating Contest - on Friday, July 4. •The 112th Tour de France cycling race starts Saturday. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,595/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $101,590 •Cobalt: $33,335/ton •Copper: $9,878/ton •Ethereum: $2,463 •Gold: $3,286/toz •Lead: $2,044/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.53/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $65.25/barrel •Zinc: $2,779/ton UKRAINE •Russia hit Ukraine with yet another largest aerial barrage yet, launching 537 drones and missiles overnight. As often, this round of strikes targeted Ukrainian infrastructure. •One Ukrainian F-16 crashed while defending against the Russian attack, killing the pilot. Ukraine has now lost three of its unknown number of F-16s. •Separately, Russian state media said Russian forces captured a village in Dnipropetrovsk. It would be Russia's first foothold in the eastern Ukrainian region, and could be part of Pres. Putin's theat to expand territorial gains in Ukraine in the absence of a peace deal (though some analysts suggest thinly-spread Russian forces will struggle to keep control of new territory). •Meanwhile, Putin claimed Friday that he's ready to talk peace. Putin has made similar statements before, only to backtrack when the idea moves forward and then shrug off blame for the resulting impasse. •Putin's press corps is already starting to suggest that Ukraine and the U.S. are responsible for the latest delays: Ukraine for not acceding to Moscow's territorial gains and Putin's assertion that "all of Ukraine is ours," and the U.S. for failing to push the warring parties towards a deal. GAZA •The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation - the new Israel-backed group distributing aid in Gaza - said it had credible information that Hamas has placed bounties on its aid workers. That adds to concerns that Hamas is seeking to undermine alternative aid delivery systems that it can't siphon from. CHINA •The latest Chinese Communist Party (CCP) census confirmed that the CCP has surpassed 100 million members. •Though the ruling party continues to grow - thanks in part to the rich job prospects its members enjoy - its growth slowed for the third straight year in 2024 as officials continued their efforts to expel slackers and crooks. GUINEA •Guinea's junta-run parliament proposed that the president's term be extended from five to seven years, and that presidents be allowed to hold office for two terms, or a total of 14 years. •That's an interesting shift for a junta that ousted the civilian government before it (in part) over overthrown president Conde's attempt to extend his term to five years and run for a third term, for a total of 13 years in power. TRADE •Pres. Trump walked away from trade talks with Canada on Friday, citing gripes with an "egregious" new tax Canada planned to impose on digital services that would disproportionately affect U.S. tech companies. Canada quickly gave in and ditched the new tax; it's not clear whether Trump will now return to talks.
Open source reportOff Leash update 16 June COMING UP THIS WEEK •Canada's new Prime Minister, Mark Carney, is hosting the 51st G7 summit today and tomorrow. •The biennial Paris Airshow opens today and runs through Thursday. Four Israeli firms - Elbit Systems, Rafael, IAI and Uvision - refused France's order to remove offensive weapons from their stands, and show organizers kicked them out. •Game 5 of the NBA Finals takes place tonight, followed by Game 6 on Thursday and Game 7 (if needed) on Sunday. The Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder are tied at two games each; the first to four wins. •Thursday is a U.S. holiday for Juneteenth. •Thursday is also the latest deadline for TikTok's Chinese parent company, Bytedance, to sell the short-video app's U.S. operations to a new owner or face a shutdown, but Pres. Trump may grant Bytedance yet another extension. COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,503/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Cobalt: $33,335/ton •Copper: $9,645/ton •Gold: $3,386/toz - up on geopolitical uncertainty over Iran-Israel fighting •Lead: $1,991/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.74/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $71.26/barrel - spiked over the weekend due to Iran-Israel fighting, but now down from weekend highs on reports that Iran wants a truce •Zinc: $2,623/ton IRAN •Iran and Israel continued to exchange missile strikes over the weekend and into today. Iran has reported 224 deaths from Israeli strikes, and Israel says Iran's strikes have killed 24 since Friday. •The International Atomic Energy Agency - the UN's nuclear agency - confirmed from satellite imagery that Israel's first barrage Friday destroyed Iran's above-ground nuclear enrichment plant at Natanz. Iran hides additional undisclosed enrichment operations underground where satellite photos can't see. •Prime Minister Netanyahu said Israel's strikes are being "fully co-ordinated" with the U.S., but that seems to be the extent of U.S. involvement for now. Pres. Trump said the U.S. "could get involved" further in the future, but he seemed optimistic that that won't be necessary because the situation "is going to get resolved." •Russia's Pres. Putin has offered to mediate between Israel and Iran, and there are rumors that Iran is ready to end the fighting. IRAQ •Long War Journal pointed out that Iran-backed militias in Iraq have issued vague threats towards the U.S. and Israel, but haven't actually joined Iran's strikes on Israel and are directing their rhetorical ire at the U.S. instead. •One of the militias, Kataib Hezbollah, issued a statement yesterday indicating it would leave it to Iran to "bravely and steadfastly confront the Zionist aggression" [meaning Israel] while it focuses instead on "monitoring the movements of the American enemy’s military in the region." •Another Iran-backed U.S.-designated terrorist group in Iraq, Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba, also focused its anger on the U.S. instead of Israel and called for U.S. forces to "be completely expelled from all Iraqi lands and airspace." •There have been at least two reports of attempted drone attacks on U.S. facilities in Iraq - one on Ain al Assad airbase in western Iraq, and another near the U.S. mission in Erbil. Neither attempt was claimed yet. U.S. TRAVEL BAN •The U.S. State Department said it identified 36 more "countries of concern" that are being considered for full or partial visa bans - in addition to the 12 full and seven partial visa bans announced earlier this month. •The 36 additional countries have 60 days to act to avoid a ban by lowering high overstay rates, resolving security issues, or addressing other U.S. grievances with their citizens' travel patterns.
Open source reportOff Leash update 20 May UKRAINE AND RUSSIA •Presidents Trump and Putin spoke by phone yesterday, but the two-hour call yielded no tangible progress towards peace. •Afterward, Trump encouraged Putin and Zelensky to negotiate directly, which the NYT called "a functional endorsement of Putin's position." Putin seemed happy, and reiterated his refrain that a ceasefire deal must "remove the root causes of this crisis" - i.e., Ukraine's sovereignty and westward shift. •Meanwhile, the NYT reported that Russia has been reinforcing bases on its tense border with Finland GAZA •Israel relaxed its monthslong blockade of Gaza to allow several food trucks in. Prime Minister Netanyahu said he decided to send "a basic quantity of food" after pressure from Israel's "closest friends in the world" - specifically, U.S. senators who expressed concern about an imminent "starvation crisis" in Gaza. •Shortly thereafter, Netanyahu announced a significant expansion of ground operations in Gaza, writing on social media: "We are going to take over all the areas of the Strip." •Canada, France, and the UK issued a joint statement criticizing Israel's expanded operations in Gaza and threatening to impose targeted sanctions on Israel over both the Gaza escalation and blockade and the growth of settlements in the West Bank. VENEZUELA •Venezuela's sanctioned Interior Minister, Diosdado Cabello, said - without offering any evidence - that authorities arrested 37 alleged mercenaries planning to disrupt this weekend's legislative elections by setting off explosives and collaborating with the opposition - two very different allegations. •Cabello said 21 of those arrested were Venezuelan and 17 were foreigners, but alleged that all of them entered Venezuela from Colombia. That helped justify a decision to suspend flights from Colombia to Venezuela for only a week. Flights will resume after the election. SUDAN •Sudan's military leader, Abdel Fatah al-Burhan, appointed former UN official Kamil Idris as the junta's prime minister. •This is the first time Sudan has had a prime minister since al-Burhan's 2021 coup. The African Union cheered the news as a step towards a return to civilian government - though with the Rapid Support Forces strafing the junta's interim capital in Port Sudan, the idea of civilian government still seems far off.
Open source reportOff Leash update 16 May UKRAINE AND RUSSIA •After Pres. Putin snubbed him for peace talks in Istanbul, Pres. Zelensky - who had already arrived in Turkey - instead met with Turkey's Pres. Erdogan in Ankara and sent a downsized delegation led by his defense minister to meet Russian envoys in Istanbul. •The downgraded Ukraine-Russia meeting was postponed from yesterday to today, and for a while it was unclear whether it would move forward at all. In the end, the U.S. mediated indirect negotiations this morning, and left Turkey to facilitate direct talks this afternoon. •These will be the first direct negotiations between Ukraine and Russia in three years, which is cause for celebration in itself. But few hold high hopes for any real breakthroughs in these lower-level meetings. •Pres. Trump told reporters that "nothing's going to happen until Putin and I get together," and said he plans to meet with Putin soon to kickstart progress towards a peace deal. SYRIA •SecState Rubio met with his Syrian counterpart, Asaad Hassan al-Shaibani, in Antalya, Turkey yesterday to continue the rapprochement Pres. Trump started by announcing an end to U.S. sanctions on Syria and then meeting Pres. Al Sharaa in person earlier this week. •Syria is cheering Trump's move to lift U.S. sanctions on Syria, but the NYT cautiously pointed out that the process will take time: U.S. presidents can only annul some sanctions unilaterally; others can only be removed after slow-moving Congressional action. •Meanwhile, Syria's Central Bank Governor, Abdulkader Husrieh, penned an op-ed in The Economist pleading for international support for his herculean effort to rebuild Syria's war-torn economy. He specifically implored regional banks and the Syrian diaspora to help recapitalize and modernize Syria's financial sector, and asked the IMF and World Bank for funding as well as capacity-building and policy support. IRAN •Pres. Trump said that the U.S. and Iran are "getting close" to a nuclear deal and noted that "Iran has sort of agreed to the terms" after four rounds of negotiations. •It's not clear what exactly those terms will be. Trump's team has oscillated between insisting on harsh demands that Iran firmly rejects - like barring Iran from enriching uranium altogether, even to low grades for civilian use - and a more pragmatic approach that Tehran is likelier to agree to. •Talks have seemed cordial so far - Iran's foreign ministry described them as "difficult but useful" - but Trump ominously warned of "violence like people have never seen before" if negotiations fail (though he added "I don't want to do that step"). INDIA AND PAKISTAN •India's defense minister, Rajnath Singh, pointed to his country's recent beef with Pakistan as proof that Pakistan is a "rogue and irresponsible nation" whose nuclear weapons must be "brought under the surveillance" of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). •Pakistan's Foreign Ministry then shot back that the IAEA should instead investigate "the repeated theft and illicit trafficking incidents involving nuclear and radioactive material in India." VENEZUELA AND GUYANA •Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado called on supporters to boycott the May 25 gubernatorial elections. •Machado told AFP that the regional vote would be a "huge farce that the regime wants to stage to bury its defeat of July 28" - when the opposition participated in nationwide elections, only for Pres. Maduro to steal the vote and launch a violent crackdown afterwards. •Machado leads Venezuela's largest opposition movement, and many opposition supporters will likely heed her call to boycott the election, but some smaller opposition factions - including one led by former presidential candidate Henrique Capriles - plan to participate in the poll. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 15 May UKRAINE •Pres. Putin stood Pres. Zelensky up for today's peace talks in Turkey - which Putin himself had proposed on Sunday in an effort to avoid new sanctions EU leaders had threatened to nudge him towards talks. Zelensky grumbled that Putin's absence indicates "that he does not want to end the war." •It's not clear whether Ukrainian and Russian officials will still meet today. If they do, the Russian delegation will probably be led by hardline Putin aide Vladimir Medinsky rather than Putin himself, which means the summit is unlikely to result in a serious truce. •France is leading an EU effort to slap Putin with a 17th round of sanctions for blowing off peace talks. The new measures would target Russian "shadow" tankers and cyberattackers. SYRIA •On Tuesday, Pres. Trump unexpectedly announced an end to all U.S. sanctions on Syria "in order to give [Syria] a chance at greatness." •U.S. sanctions have hobbled Syria - they were a leading factor in the 90% decline in Syrian exports from 2011 to 2021 - and Syria's new government has successfully argued that it needs sanctions relief to help rebuild the country after 14 years of civil war. •Following his announcement lifting sanctions on Syria, Trump then met with Syria's interim president, Ahmed Al Sharaa, in Saudi Arabia. •Trump encouraged Al Sharaa to normalize relations with Israel, and said Al Sharaa agreed to join the Abraham Accords - the 2020 deal in which Bahrain, Morocco, and the UAE agreed to normalize relations with Israel - at an unspecified future time "when it's straightened out." •Before meeting with Al Sharaa, Pres. Trump addressed an investment conference in Riyadh yesterday with a well-received speech criticizing decades of U.S. nation-building and intervention in other countries and declaring that the U.S. will no longer be "giving you lectures on how to live." •Critics of U.S. intervention cheered the notion of a more hands-off approach, while activists in some countries expressed concern that human rights protections would erode without U.S. pressure behind them. INDIA AND PAKISTAN •The NYT published an excellent satellite analysis of the reciprocal strikes India and Pakistan took at each other during their four-day clash last week. •While both sides "claimed to inflict severe damage" on the other while sustaining minimal damage from the other's strikes, satellite photos suggest that both fought with restraint and precisely targeted military facilities and equipment - especially airplanes and airfields - while taking care to minimize human casualties. India reported losing five soldiers and Pakistan said it lost 11. GAZA •Israel's military likely killed several senior Hamas leaders - including Muhammad Sinwar (Yahya's younger brother), spokesman Abu Obaida, and Rafah Brigade Commander Muhammad Shabana - in a strike on the European Hospital in Khan Younis. •A Gazan political scientist told the NYT that Sinwar's "death would definitely be another big blow to Hamas...But I’m not sure if his death will lead to a compromise with Israel, and it might even backfire, if his successor turns out to be even more radical than Sinwar." SAHEL •Mali's junta responded to opposition protests demanding a return to democracy by formally dissolving all political parties and disappearing three opposition politicians who objected to last month's decision to give coup leader Assimi Goita a five-year unelected presidential term. RUSSIA •A Russian court sentenced Grigory Melkonyants - the head of the country's only independent election monitor, Golos - to five years in a penal colony for working with an "undesirable organization:" the Montenegro-based European Network of Election Monitoring Organisations (ENEMO). •Melkonyants insists that Golos has not interacted with ENEMO since the Kremlin branded ENEMO "undesirable" in 2021. It seems that Golos's true offense was documenting widespread fraud in Russian elections.
Open source reportOff Leash update 30 April 2025 INDIA AND PAKISTAN •Pakistan's Information Minister, Attaullah Tarar, claimed to have "credible intelligence" that India is planning a military strike on Pakistan in the next 24-36 hours (from ~10 pm local time last night) in retaliation for what Tarar called India's "baseless and concocted allegations" that Pakistan supported the separatist militants who attacked a civilian train in Pahalgam, Kashmir last week. [Pakistan vehemently denies funding or encouraging militants in Kashmir.] •Tarar's claim is consistent with other media reports that India's Prime Minister Modi has been lobbying world leaders by phone and diplomats in person to make the case for striking Pakistan, and a targeted strike could come soon. •India carried out similar targeted strikes on Pakistani militants after deadly attacks on India in 2016 and 2019. Both previous Indian retaliatory strikes were limited in scope to precisely target "militant launch pads" and training camps connected to the preceding terrorist attacks. •Any imminent Indian military strike would likely follow the same pattern and be limited to targeting the safe havens and arsenals used by militants responsible for the Pahalgam attacks. Neither India nor Pakistan wants a broader war with its nuclear-armed archrival right now. VENEZUELA •Human Rights Watch (HRW) released a damning 104-page report yesterday condemning Pres. Maduro's crackdown on the opposition after he stole the July 2024 election. •The report's title offers a preview of its findings: "Punished for Seeking Change: Killings, Enforced Disappearances, and Arbitrary Detention Following Venezuela’s 2024 Election." •Inside the report, HRW cited credible reports that at least 25 protesters were killed in the immediate aftermath of the election, and over 2,000 people were detained for demonstrating or supporting the opposition. Those are both probably drastic underestimates of the true totals. UKRAINE •Pres. Zelensky said that Ukraine has agreed - at U.S. insistence - to an immediate and unconditional 30-day ceasefire, but complained that Russia has yet to commit to it - and instead launched over 100 drone attacks on Ukraine overnight. NORTH KOREA •South Korean intelligence reported that around 600 North Koreans have been killed fighting against Ukraine in Kursk. •Earlier South Korean reports estimated 4,700 total North Korean casualties (killed or injured) in Kursk, so a combination of the two figures suggests 4,100 of the casualties were injured and 600 were killed in action. RUSSIA •France's cybersecurity agency accused Russia's military intelligence organization, GRU, of staging almost 10 years of cyberattacks against French defense and intelligence targets. France's Foreign Ministry pounced on the accusation and said Russia should be barred from the UN Security Council for such "destabilizing activities." •Pres. Macron has been explicit about his desire to pressure Pres. Putin into agreeing to a ceasefire in Ukraine, and these new charges are probably part of Macron's pressure campaign.
Open source reportOff Leash update 22 April 2025 RUSSIA AND UKRAINE •Perhaps swayed by U.S. pressure to figure out a ceasefire, Pres. Putin told reporters that he's open to direct bilateral peace talks with Ukraine. It would be the first time the warring neighbors have engaged in direct talks since the early weeks of the war in 2022. •The U.S. has proposed a broad ceasefire plan that it hopes Ukraine and Russia will agree to, but the U.S. plan lacks key details that could become sticking points as negotiations develop. ISRAEL •Prime Minister Netanyahu is facing a new political crisis after his domestic security chief, Ronen Bar, accused him of making multiple improper and politically-motivated requests. •Bar - whom Netanyahu unsuccessfully tried to sack last month - claimed in an audacious affidavit to the Supreme Court that Netanyahu pressured Bar's domestic security service (Shin Bet) to spy on Israeli citizens involved in anti-government protests, asked Bar to side with him over the Supreme Court if a constitutional crisis should ever split allegiances, and tried to cajole Bar into signing an opinion that would have effectively pardoned Netanyahu from corruption charges he faces. [Netanyahu rejected Bar's letter as a "false statement" and said he plans to refute Bar's claims "in detail."] •Bar's bold accusations aren't as much of a threat to Netanyahu's political survival as the corruption charges he's contesting in court, but they give the Prime Minister's critics additional grounds to call for his resignation - which won't be forthcoming. SUDAN •The European Commission and its member states marked the end of this week's high-level summit on the war in Sudan - which excluded both parties fighting in it - with aid pledges totaling €522 million ($600 million). That's almost exactly double the amount the European Union earmarked for Sudan last year, but it doesn't come close to filling the $3.8 billion gap in additional emergency funding that the UN says Sudan still needs for 2025. •The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) weren't invited to the summit and continued fighting instead. The SAF accused the RSF of killing over 30 civilians yesterday in the course of its offensive to capture El Fasher, which is the capital of North Darfur and the only major city in Darfur that the RSF doesn't control. VENEZUELA •Venezuela bluntly rejected a proposal from El Salvador's Pres. Bukele to swap 252 Venezuelans deported from the U.S. to Salvadoran jail for the same number of political prisoners swept up in Pres. Maduro's post-election crackdown. •Maduro's attorney general, Tarek Saab (who is under U.S., UK, and EU sanctions for helping Maduro repress democracy in Venezuela), called Bukele's swap proposal "cynical" and accused Bukele of being a (fellow) "serial human rights violator" for his crackdown on gang violence. •Some Venezuelan opposition figures quickly welcomed Bukele's proposal, but their main leader, Maria Corina Machado, has yet to comment on it. VATICAN •Pope Francis passed away yesterday at age 88. Argentine-born Francis was the first non-European pope in over 1200 years, and he broke from his European predecessors in many ways: becoming the first pope to visit the birthplace of Islam (Saudi Arabia), refusing to judge homosexuals or divorcées, and overseeing radical (by Vatican standards) institutional change - though, as The Economist pointed out, "not as much [change] as he hoped." •A conclave of 135 cardinals under age 80 - all but 27 of whom were appointed by Francis - will now choose the next spiritual leader of the world's ~1.4 billion baptized Roman Catholics.
Open source reportOff Leash update 22 April 2025 RUSSIA AND UKRAINE •Perhaps swayed by U.S. pressure to figure out a ceasefire, Pres. Putin told reporters that he's open to direct bilateral peace talks with Ukraine. It would be the first time the warring neighbors have engaged in direct talks since the early weeks of the war in 2022. •The U.S. has proposed a broad ceasefire plan that it hopes Ukraine and Russia will agree to, but the U.S. plan lacks key details that could become sticking points as negotiations develop. ISRAEL •Prime Minister Netanyahu is facing a new political crisis after his domestic security chief, Ronen Bar, accused him of making multiple improper and politically-motivated requests. •Bar - whom Netanyahu unsuccessfully tried to sack last month - claimed in an audacious affidavit to the Supreme Court that Netanyahu pressured Bar's domestic security service (Shin Bet) to spy on Israeli citizens involved in anti-government protests, asked Bar to side with him over the Supreme Court if a constitutional crisis should ever split allegiances, and tried to cajole Bar into signing an opinion that would have effectively pardoned Netanyahu from corruption charges he faces. [Netanyahu rejected Bar's letter as a "false statement" and said he plans to refute Bar's claims "in detail."] •Bar's bold accusations aren't as much of a threat to Netanyahu's political survival as the corruption charges he's contesting in court, but they give the Prime Minister's critics additional grounds to call for his resignation - which won't be forthcoming. SUDAN •The European Commission and its member states marked the end of this week's high-level summit on the war in Sudan - which excluded both parties fighting in it - with aid pledges totaling €522 million ($600 million). That's almost exactly double the amount the European Union earmarked for Sudan last year, but it doesn't come close to filling the $3.8 billion gap in additional emergency funding that the UN says Sudan still needs for 2025. •The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) weren't invited to the summit and continued fighting instead. The SAF accused the RSF of killing over 30 civilians yesterday in the course of its offensive to capture El Fasher, which is the capital of North Darfur and the only major city in Darfur that the RSF doesn't control. VENEZUELA •Venezuela bluntly rejected a proposal from El Salvador's Pres. Bukele to swap 252 Venezuelans deported from the U.S. to Salvadoran jail for the same number of political prisoners swept up in Pres. Maduro's post-election crackdown. •Maduro's attorney general, Tarek Saab (who is under U.S., UK, and EU sanctions for helping Maduro repress democracy in Venezuela), called Bukele's swap proposal "cynical" and accused Bukele of being a (fellow) "serial human rights violator" for his crackdown on gang violence. •Some Venezuelan opposition figures quickly welcomed Bukele's proposal, but their main leader, Maria Corina Machado, has yet to comment on it. VATICAN •Pope Francis passed away yesterday at age 88. Argentine-born Francis was the first non-European pope in over 1200 years, and he broke from his European predecessors in many ways: becoming the first pope to visit the birthplace of Islam (Saudi Arabia), refusing to judge homosexuals or divorcées, and overseeing radical (by Vatican standards) institutional change - though, as The Economist pointed out, "not as much [change] as he hoped." •A conclave of 135 cardinals under age 80 - all but 27 of whom were appointed by Francis - will now choose the next spiritual leader of the world's ~1.4 billion baptized Roman Catholics.
Open source reportOff Leash update 20 March UKRAINE •Presidents Zelensky and Trump spoke by phone yesterday, and it was much more cordial than their last conversation in the Oval Office. Zelensky agreed to Pres. Putin's watered-down ceasefire proposal pausing attacks on energy and infrastructure targets for 30 days. •Zelensky asked the U.S. to monitor key energy sites protected by the current agreement: "Just the assertion and the word of Putin that he will not strike energy sites is too little." •The White House said its negotiators will continue to meet Ukrainian teams in Saudi Arabia to seek a Black Sea truce "in the coming days," and hoped to eventually reach a full ceasefire plan that both Ukraine and Russia can agree to. GAZA •Israel launched "targeted ground activities" in Gaza yesterday, seizing a sliver of the Netzarim Corridor to create a "partial buffer zone" between the north and south of the strip. Israel's goal seems to be to resume vehicle checks and add pressure on Hamas. •Thousands of Israelis protested in Jerusalem for a new ceasefire. CHINA •Pres. Trump teased a possible visit by China's Pres. Xi Jinping to Washington "in the not too distant future." •Trump said he'd ordered the capital to be cleaned up ahead of Xi's yet-unplanned arrival - as he did ahead of previous visits by other foreign dignitaries like India's Prime Minister Modi, France's Pres. Macron, and the UK's Prime Minister Starmer: "I didn't want to have them see tents. I didn't want to have them see graffiti. I didn't want to have them see broken barriers and potholes in the roads." •Canada may not be inviting Xi to visit anytime soon: China-Canada relations have taken two turns for the worse. Yesterday, China executed four Canadian citizens on drug trafficking charges - despite Ottawa's pleas for leniency. Then - at midnight this morning - China imposed (previously announced) tariffs on $3.7 billion in Canadian agricultural and food exports to China in retaliation for Canadian tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. IRAN •Axios and The Jerusalem Post independently reported that Pres. Trump's recent letter to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei gave Iran a two-month(ish) deadline to reach a new nuclear deal, and threatened significant new sanctions if the deadline isn't met. •Neither publication cited an exact date for the deadline, and Trump's letter may have left it vague to give Khamenei time to soften his position and come around to the idea of talking to the U.S. •Khamenei hasn't officially responded yet, but other Iranian officials - including Pres. Pezeshkian - have gently hinted that they're open to talks without explicitly disagreeing with Khamenei's hardline position. YEMEN •After Pres. Trump threatened to hold Iran responsible for future Houthi attacks on Red Sea ships, Iran reportedly privately asked its Houthi proxies to dial back their attacks and nudged Oman to convey the same message to Houthi leaders. •The Houthis remain outwardly defiant: Houthi foreign minister Jamal Amer vowed to resist U.S. pressure or Iranian appeals to "dial down" Red Sea attacks. But behind closed doors, the Houthis are probably listening to their benefactors (plus, ongoing U.S. strikes are chipping away at their arsenal). •My guess is that we'll see the Houthis lob some sporadic, easily-interceptible missiles in Israel's direction - like the one they fired towards Ben Gurion Airport overnight that Israel promptly destroyed - but won't see the dramatic escalation they've promised. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 16 March UKRAINE •Pres. Putin elaborated on the conditions Russia would demand in order to agree to the 30-day ceasefire the U.S. proposed (and Ukraine tentatively agreed to already). •Putin clearly feels that Russia has the upper hand in the war and doesn't need to rush into a truce, since the conditions he laid out ranged from challenging to impossible. For example, he would refuse Ukrainian troops in Russia's Kursk region safe passage back to Ukraine and force them "to simply surrender" instead. •Pres. Zelensky complained that Putin had set so many pre-conditions "that nothing will work out at all” or that “it will not work out for as long as possible.” •However, despite attaching onerous demands to the proposal, Putin hasn't explicitly rejected it and he continues to engage mediators - including Pres. Trump's Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, and Saudi Arabian Crown Prince MBS - to discuss it. ETHIOPIA •The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) resumed its insurgency against the regional government after two years of uneasy peace. •TPLF forces captured several towns in Tigray, and the local governor - a former TPLF member who was thrown out of the party last year - appealed to the central government in Addis Ababa to intervene, raising the risk that this week's eruption could spark a new civil war. •Worse still, other countries seem to be taking sides, elevating the odds that it could become a regional war. Eritrea appears to be aligning itself on the TPLF's side - as do Saudi Arabia and Egypt (though the latter two are more likely to send weapons than troops) - while Ethiopia's central government is mobilizing weaponry towards Eritrea and has the UAE's backing. GAZA •Pres. Trump's post-war plan for Gaza called for Gaza's population of two million (pre-war) to be resettled to an unspecified "beautiful area." Now AP has shed some light on where that could be: AP reported that U.S. and Israeli envoys pitched at least three East African governments - Sudan, Somalia, and Somaliland - on the idea of accepting resettled Gazans. •Sudanese officials said they "immediately rebuffed" the proposal - despite rich incentives the U.S. dangled with it (which included military support for the army's war with the Rapid Support Forces and post-war reconstruction funding). •Somali and Somalilander officials said they hadn't been approached yet and are not actively considering the idea. MOZAMBIQUE •The U.S. Export-Import Bank re-approved a $5 billion loan for TotalEnergies's liquefied-natural gas project in northern Mozambique, overcoming a key hurdle for resuming construction. Total still needs to confirm the remaining ~$15 billion it needs for the project, which will likely delay the plant's start of operations until at least 2029. SYRIA •Syria's interim president, Ahmed al Sharaa, signed a temporary constitution establishing a framework for the country's permanent constitution. •The temporary document was drafted in less than two weeks, and it leans heavily on Syria's former constitution, which was suspended in January. Like the previous edition, this one stipulates that Syrian presidents must be Muslim and Islamic law will be not just "a main source" of jurisprudence (as in the former text), but "the main source." •Those two points offended Syria's Kurds, who complained that the document and the committee that drafted it had "ignor[ed] Syria’s pluralistic nature and its identity as a multi-ethnic and multi-religious state."
Open source reportOff Leash update 13 March 2025 UKRAINE •Having secured Ukraine's tentative agreement to Pres. Trump's 30-day ceasefire proposal, U.S. officials landed in Moscow to pitch the plan to Russia. •Russia seems lukewarm on the proposal. A Kremlin aide called it "nothing more than a short reprieve for Ukrainian forces," and complained that a 30-day truce merely gives Ukraine a break from fighting. •Russia favors a more permanent truce that solidifies its territorial gains, and has reportedly responded to the U.S. proposal with a list of demands that must be met before it agrees to a ceasefire. •Meanwhile Russia retook Sudzha, and has now nearly recaptured all of the Kursk region from Ukrainian forces who captured parts of it in recent months. Pres. Putin visited troops in Sudzha to show that the city - which was the largest Kursk settlement Ukraine captured - is now firmly back under Russian control. SYRIA •Interim Pres. Sharaa appointed a seven-man committee to investigate reports that his new government's forces are stoking sectarian violence and carrying out human rights abuses - including summary executions - against civilians in Alawite strongholds in western Syria. The committee will report its findings back to Sharaa within 30 days. •The Syrian Network for Human Rights, an NGO, estimates that at least 779 people have died in sectarian skirmishes in recent weeks, with government forces and pro-Assad militias each responsible for about half of those deaths. GAZA •A new UN report accused Israel of carrying out "genocidal acts" against Gazans by restricting medical supplies for maternity wards. Prime Minister Netanyahu immediately rejected the report's findings, calling them biased and anti-Semitic. PAKISTAN •Pakistan's military said it concluded its operation to rescue the estimated 400 hostages that the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) captured after hijacking a train near Quetta on Tuesday. •The military freed around 300 of the hostages, but the BLA claimed that it executed 50 of the others to punish the Pakistani government for refusing to agree to a prisoner swap. •The episode was another sign that Karachi is struggling to contain the BLA's separatist militancy. CHINA •Taiwan's Pres. Lai accused China of escalating its "influence campaigns and manipulation" on the island in an effort to "absorb" it, and said that his government charged 64 people - mostly current of former Chinese military officials - with spying for China in 2024. •In response to Beijing's "infiltration," Lai vowed to introduce counter measures like more rigorous scrutiny of Chinese citizens' applications for Taiwanese residency. DRC •The Southern African Development Community (SADC) said it will conduct a "phased withdrawal" of its regional troops from eastern DRC, where at least 15 of them have died in recent fighting. •Having failed to keep the peace in eastern DRC, the SADC is now urging a "diplomatic and political solution" to the conflict. •Angola will mediate peace talks between DRC and the M23 next week. GREENLAND •Greenland's centre-right Demokraatit Party unexpectedly won the largest share of yesterday's vote, with around 30% support. •The Demokraatit Party favors gradual independence from Denmark, and will try to form a government that takes the territory in that direction. In addition, party leader Jens-Frederik Nielsen has vocally opposed Pres. Trump's suggestion that the U.S. could acquire Greenland, and will likely rebuff Trump's future overtures towards the island. VENEZUELA •U.S. envoy Richard Grenell announced on X that deportation flights to Venezuela will resume tomorrow. Pres. Maduro's government briefly blocked the flights to retaliate for the U.S. suspension of Chevron's operating license in Venezuela, but apparently has now reversed course under U.S. pressure. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 25 Feb Ukraine and Russia •After hosting France's Pres. Macron at the White House, Pres. Trump told reporters that the war in Ukraine - which started three years ago yesterday - could be over "within weeks." •Trump added that he may visit Moscow in the coming months to advance peace talks with Pres. Putin - to the chagrin of Pres. Zelensky and EU leaders, who bemoan being left out of bilateral U.S.-Russia talks. •Meanwhile at the UN, the U.S. voted against a non-binding European resolution condemning Russia for the war and calling on it to withdraw immediately from Ukraine. The U.S. instead introduced its own, softer resolution that still called for a quick end to the war, but - in the NYT's reading - "essentially sid[ed] with Moscow over longtime allies." •Separately, China's Pres. Xi and Russia's Pres. Putin spoke by video call yesterday. After the call, Xi gushed that China and Russia are "true friends who have been through thick and thin together," which led analysts to suggest that the point of the call was to disprove speculation that Putin's rapprochement with Trump comes at the cost of weakening Russia's bond with China. Gaza •The first phase of the Gaza ceasefire deal ends Sunday, and Israel and Hamas have reportedly not yet started negotiating the second phase. Hamas now says it will only return to negotiations if Israel releases the 620 Palestinian prisoners it was due to release over the weekend. DRC •DRC surprised the cobalt market with a new four-month ban on exports of the metal - 77% of which is produced in DRC (mainly in the southern copper belt - this is unrelated to the insecurity plaguing the east). •The export ban is intended to buoy cobalt prices - which have fallen by about 25% in the past year because of declining demand amidst a supply glut - but it won't be a long-term fix for the oversupplied cobalt market. That's because almost all of DRC's cobalt is produced as a byproduct of copper or nickel production, which will continue apace. The resulting cobalt byproduct will just be stockpiled in DRC, and - as soon as the export ban is lifted - it will flood the market, crashing prices again. •Some analysts are suggesting the export ban could harm DRC's long-term production potential because it could scare shocked buyers into sourcing from alternate producers with greater regulatory transparency - like Indonesia. •Meanwhile, the situation in the east continues to devolve, and the International Rescue Committee reports that at least 40,000 Congolese have fled to Burundi. Prime Minister Judith Suminwa Tuluka told the UN Human Rights Council that 7,000 people have died in recent weeks - roughly double the UN's earlier estimate. •DRC closed its airspace to Rwandan aircraft - though I'm not sure what good that decree will do when Rwanda already controls eastern DRC's two main airports. Syria •Syria's new leaders have been courting international partners in an effort to win allies and relief from sanctions imposed on the deposed Assad regime. Their efforts are paying off...but slowly. •Yesterday, EU foreign ministers agreed to ease restrictions on the central bank and energy sectors, lift asset freezes for five banks, suspend sanctions on the transport sector, and indefinitely extend an exemption allowing humanitarian aid delivery. •The EU's relief measures will help, but Syria still needs far more help to rebuild. U.S. sanctions remain in place, and Syria's central bank remains barred from the global SWIFT network. Venezuela •Another opposition activist, Reinaldo Araujo, died in Venezuelan jail from chronic health problems that deteriorated since his arrest on Jan. 9. Opposition-linked NGOs estimate 20 political prisoners have now died in detention. •Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado blamed Pres. Maduro's regime for Araujo's death and renewed her call on Maduro to free all political prisoners. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 30 DEC Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,558/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $33,550/ton •Cobalt: $24,300/ton •Copper: $8,982/ton •Gold: $2,618/toz •Lead: $1,970/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.77/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $70.56/barrel •Zinc: $3,032/ton Russia •The State Department designated U.S. citizen Marc Fogel - a former teacher serving a 14-year sentence in Russia for drug smuggling - as "wrongfully detained." Fogel was convicted by the same court that tried Brittney Griner, and U.S. officials speculate that Russia could offer to trade Fogel in a prisoner swap - as it did with Griner. •Azerbaijan's Pres. Aliyev escalated a row with Russia's Pres. Putin over the downing of a passenger jet last week. Aliyev claims (and U.S. investigators concur) that Russia accidentally shot the jet down, and Putin already extended an apology for the incident; however, he refused to explicitly accept responsibility for it. Syria •Syria's new leaders claim it will take four years to organize elections. That's probably a good guess: government functions broke down over 13 years of civil war, and Syria wasn't exactly a thriving democracy before 2011 either. Other News •A Jeju Air Boeing 737-899 crashed in Muan, South Korea, killing all but two of the 181 aboard. Boeing's stock also crashed as investors wondered whether a technical malfunction caused the accident (the early investigation has focused on bird strike, though).
Open source reportOff leash update 24 Dec Mozambique •Mozambique's highest court reaffirmed official election results naming the ruling Frelimo party's candidate, Daniel Chapo, the new president. •Opposition candidate Venâncio Mondlane - who came in second and fled the country just after the poll - had threatened a "new popular uprising" if the court didn't reverse results in his favor, and called on his supporters to stage new protests after the court's decision yesterday. They complied, turning out in droves to chant his name and throw rocks at police. Gaza and Yemen •Prime Minister Netanyahu told Israeli lawmakers that "some progress" had been made towards a ceasefire and hostage release deal, but added "I don't know how long it will take." •Meanwhile, Israeli defense minister Israel Katz publicly acknowledged that Israel was behind the July assassination of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. It was always widely assumed that Israel was responsible, but this is the first time an Israeli official confirmed it. •Katz's comment on Haniyeh came in the context of a threat to Houthi leaders: "We will strike hard at the Houthis ... and decapitate their leadership – just as we did with Haniyeh, Sinwar, and Nasrallah in Tehran, Gaza, and Lebanon, we will do so in Hodeida and Sanaa." •The Houthis lobbed another ballistic missile towards Israel - their third in under a week - and vowed to keep firing "until the aggression against our people in Gaza stops." This missile was easily intercepted - though some Israelis suffered injuries while fleeing to shelter. Syria •Jordanian and Qatari diplomats visited Damascus to court Syria's new leaders. Most Arab countries broke ties with Assad after his 2011 crackdown on dissent, but they now see Syria's transition as a chance to rebuild relations with the new government. •Armed men torched a Christmas tree in the mostly-Christian Syrian town of Suqaylabiyah, and it sparked an uproar among Christians and other minority groups in Syria, who are skeptically waiting to see if the former Islamists now running the country will do as much as they've promised to preserve minority rights. •The UN's International, Impartial and Independent Mechanism for Syria - which was founded in 2016 to investigate ex-Pres. Assad's war crimes - said Syria's new government is "very receptive" to its efforts to gather evidence against Assad. Of course it is: many of Assad's worst crimes targeted rebels like them. North Korea •U.S. intelligence officials said that Kim Jong Un sent troops to support Pres. Putin - who Kim has called his "closest comrade" - on his own volition, and not because Putin asked for his help. •That's a shift from the initial narrative, which suggested Putin pleaded for Kim's help because he was suffering high casualty rates in Ukraine and desperately needed more soldiers (it now seems the North Koreans in Ukraine are being plucked off quickly, so they're proving to be poor reinforcements anyway). Venezuela •Pres. Maduro's loyal Attorney General, Tarek Saab, announced that 233 more political prisoners were be released in a belated Christmas gift (Christmas began Oct. 1 in Venezuela, per Maduro's decree). •Saab claims the government has now released 956 prisoners - of the ~2,000 arrested during Maduro's post-election crackdown - but rights groups haven't been able to independently corroborate that count. Other News •El Salvador's president, Nayib Bukele, overturned a years long ban on mining in the country and expressed hope that rich gold reserves could "transform" the economy. Environmentalists are appalled. •Earlier today, NASA's unmanned Parker Solar Probe flew closer to the sun than any earthman-made spacecraft has before, coming within 3.8 million miles (6.1 million km) of the star's surface.
Open source reportOff Leash update 18 Dec Russia •Ukraine claimed responsibility for yesterday's assassination of Russian general Igor Kirillov in Moscow, justifying the hit as retribution for orchestrating the "massive use of banned chemical weapons" against Ukraine as chief of Russia's nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons protection forces. •The U.S. was no fan of Kirillov, who frequently promoted unproven propaganda campaigns against the West. Nonetheless, U.S. officials reportedly tried to dissuade Ukraine from targeting the general on Russian soil out of concern that such a high-profile assassination could provoke Pres. Putin to lash out in revenge. Syria •Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu paid an unannounced visit to Mount Hermon in Syria and declared that Israeli forces would remain there on a temporary but indefinite basis, "until another arrangement is found that guarantees Israel’s security." •Syria's new leadership saw Netanyahu's declaration as an affront to the sovereignty they hope to establish in Syria. •As part of that quest for legitimacy, Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) chief - and self-proclaimed "president" of Syria - Ahmed al Shara announced the dissolution of all independent armed groups in the country and the integration of all fighters under a unified Defense Ministry. That seems ambitious, given that these factions have little in common except a former mutual enemy - ex-Pres. Assad - who's now out of the picture. •Some rebel factions are busy waging their own wars. In the northeast, the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) agreed to extend their temporary ceasefire "to the end of the week." After that, the Institute for the Study of War expects the SNA - perhaps alongside Turkish troops - to try to capture Kobani and other SDF-held territory. Gaza •Hamas said it is involved in "serious and positive talks" about a ceasefire in Gaza, and U.S. CIA Director Burns is in Qatar for meetings to try to finalize a truce and hostage release deal. Optimism is higher than usual, but hopes for a deal have been dashed before. Iran •A new Reuters report estimated that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) now controls up to half Iran's oil exports - a marked rise from the 20% of oil exports it controlled three years ago. •One reason for bringing a greater share of oil exports under the IRGC is that it gives the IRGC direct control of the estimated $25 billion per year in revenues its share generates. That represents a huge part - nearly half - of the government's $53 billion annual budget, and presumably the vast majority of the funds the IRGC spends supporting its proxies and allies abroad. •It's also easier for the IRGC than it is for private oil traders to flout Western sanctions: the IRGC is already a U.S.-designated terrorist organization, so the threat of more sanctions certainly won't encourage cooperation with a geopolitical rival. Venezuela •Venezuela's opposition president-elect, Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, accepted the European Union's Sakharov Prize for human rights at the European Parliament yesterday. •In a speech after accepting the prize, Gonzalez vowed to go "back to Venezuela by land, air or sea" in time to be inaugurated as Venezuela's rightful president on Jan. 10. [Pres. Maduro - who all independent evidence suggests lost the July election to Gonzalez - is also planning to be inaugurated on Jan. 10.] •Meanwhile, even friendly Canada has slapped sanctions on some senior Venezuelan officials who helped Maduro steal the election. New sanctions target the head of the supreme court, two judges, a prosecutor, and a member of the electoral body. Mozambique •After battering Mayotte - where authorities are still assessing the extent of the damage - Cyclone Chido hit Mozambique, killing at least 34 and destroying over 23,000 homes. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 4 Dec China •China responded to a new U.S. ban on exporting certain chip technology to China by announcing its own new ban on exports of select rare minerals - including gallium, germanium, antimony, and superhard minerals (e.g., tungsten) - to the U.S. •This is a significant escalation in the U.S.-China tech rivalry, but it wasn't a complete surprise: China has been slowly introducing a legal framework for such a ban over the past year-ish, and recently experimented with export restrictions on some of affected minerals. •It also won't have a drastic effect on U.S. supply chains: U.S. manufacturers already buy more semi-finished goods than raw materials and have begun to develop alternate sources of the few raw materials still imported from China. South Korea •South Korea's deeply unpopular President Yoon Suk Yeol tried to ram through political gridlock by imposing martial law and banning "all political activities" late last night. •The public and legislature weren't having it, though: amidst widespread peaceful demonstrations against Yoon's decree, the National Assembly voted unanimously - 190 to 0 - to rescind it. Opposition lawmakers are now seeking Yoon's impeachment for treason. Ukraine •NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte urged members of the alliance to boost their military support for Ukraine so Ukraine can "get to a position of strength when...peace talks start." NATO's members are suffering donor fatigue, and many have slowed their support for Ukraine. •Separately, a new Yale University report concluded that Pres. Putin and other senior Russian officials "intentionally and directly" allowed the forced deportation, fostering, and eventual adoption of Ukrainian children from occupied parts of Ukraine - acts that would constitute war crimes. •These aren't new allegations; rather, they buttress the International Criminal Court's (ICC's) case against Putin and his commissioner for children, Maria Lvova-Belova, on related charges. [Russia isn't a member of the ICC and maintains that the adoptions are noble, patriotic gestures to help abandoned Ukrainian children - not war crimes.] Syria •Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russia plans to send Africa Corps (ex-Wagner Group) mercenaries to Syria to bolster Pres. Assad's counteroffensive against Operation Deterrence of Aggression. This has not yet been confirmed or corroborated. Afghanistan •Afghanistan's Taliban government announced a new ban on women studying medicine and midwifery - two of the few remaining fields that were still open to female students. •One of the reasons the medical education loophole remained open to women when they were banned from most other education was that the Taliban also prohibits female patients in some provinces from being treated by male doctors. •Under the new ban, women who are already doctors will probably be allowed to continue practicing, but their ranks will dwindle without a pipeline of new female students to replace those who retire. Venezuela •Eyeing Pres. Trump's threat to slap tariffs on Mexico and Canada if they don't help reduce the flow of illegal immigrants and drug precursors to the U.S., Pres. Maduro proposed a different version of a similar bargain: he said that if the U.S. lifts its sanctions on Venezuela, then "in less than a year, not a single immigrant will go to the U.S." •Maduro has repeatedly tried to blame Venezuela's economic woes - and now migrant flight resulting from those woes - on sanctions, but the truth is that Venezuelan GDP declined in every year from 2013, when Maduro took office, through 2019, when sanctions went into effect. [As with Maduro's election tallies, his official economic statistics tell a different story that lacks numerical support and begs belief.]
Open source reportOff Leash update 2 DEC Coming Up This Week •The UN Convention to Combat Desertification meets in Riyadh today through Dec. 13. •Pres. Biden is in Angola today through Wednesday for what will likely be his last presidential trip abroad. His visit will celebrate the Lobito Corridor - a $1 billion railway built with U.S. support to expand American access to Chinese-dominated critical minerals like Congolese cobalt. •Ghana goes to the polls on Saturday. Former president John Dramani Mahama is favored to win a fresh (non-consecutive) term. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,594/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $33,550/ton •Cobalt: $24,300/ton •Copper: $9,011/ton •Gold: $2,637/toz •Lead: $2,071/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.16/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $68.60/barrel •Zinc: $3,103/ton Syria •Syrian rebels continued to gain ground in Aleppo, capturing its airport and military academy. They now control an estimated half of the city and are encroaching on the outskirts of nearby Hama. •The attacks caught Syrian forces off-guard and they quickly pulled out of Aleppo. Syrian and Russian warplanes are retaliating with an assault on rebel positions in and around the opposition stronghold of Idlib. •Some analysts think Turkey's Pres. Erdogan incited the ongoing uprising to take advantage of an opportunity to gain ground against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) while Pres. Assad's backers are distracted abroad (Russia in Ukraine and Iran and its proxies by wars with Israel). •I wrote last week that one of the main rebel groups in the coalition fighting over Aleppo and Hama - Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) - is aligned with Al Qaeda, but that's inaccurate. Rather, one of HTS's precursors - Nusrah Front - was aligned with Al Qaeda, but severed ties over strategic disagreements in 2016 - one year before it merged with other anti-Assad groups to form HTS. •HTS retains Al Qaeda's Salafi-jihadist ideology, however, and several countries - including the U.S., EU, and Russia - designate HTS a terrorist group. (Turkey does, too, but still backs HTS's coalition partners when they fight the SDF and other Kurds). China •Taiwan's Pres. Lai Ching-te left Saturday for his first international trip as president. He'll visit three of the 12 countries that still officially recognize Taiwan: Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and Palau. •En route - at least geopolitically, though certainly not geographically - Lai will stop over in Hawaii to "make some visits" and "meet with old friends" - i.e., hold closed-door meetings with think tanks, pro-Taiwan expats, and perhaps even current U.S. officials. •It's become customary for Taiwanese presidents to jab at China by paying semi-official visits to the U.S., but Lai's visit to Hawaii isn't quite as provocative as his predecessor Tsai Ing-wen's visits to Los Angeles and New York. Nonetheless, it will irritate China, which analysts expect will retaliate with new military drills around Taiwan while Lai is away. Ukraine •In an interview with Sky News, Pres. Zelensky proposed an unlikely solution to end the war: he said Ukraine could agree to a truce if areas now under Ukrainian control were placed "under the NATO umbrella" with negotiations over areas now under Russian control to follow later. •That's not going to happen: Pres. Putin would reject the idea, and NATO isn't unanimously excited about welcoming any part of Ukraine under its umbrella. Mexico •The NYT profiled an unusual tactic Mexico's cartels are using to build their fentanyl empires: they're recruiting talented university chemistry students to add scientific know-how that improves synthetic drug production, Breaking Bad-style. One professor suspects some students are only enrolling in his chemistry classes to learn how to synthesize drugs - and not for the joy of studying chemistry. Sahel 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 28 Nov Lebanon •The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire that took effect yesterday is largely holding - although thousands of displaced Lebanese began to return to southern villages before Israeli forces withdrew and lifted movement restrictions. Israeli soldiers opened fire on "suspects" and vehicles that violated movement restrictions in at least six villages. •On the other side of the border, tens of thousands of displaced Israeli civilians seem more reluctant to trust the truce and aren't rushing to return to the homes they fled. •They have good reason to be wary: in its first official statement since the ceasefire announcement, Hezbollah vowed to continue its resistance and monitor the Israeli withdrawal from border regions with "hands on the trigger." •Despite its tough talk, Hezbollah was clearly the turkey in this deal: it lost an estimated 4,000 fighters and most of its senior leadership in the past three months and gained nothing from the truce except an end to a war Hamas started. Syria •Syria's Pres. Assad has long relied on Hezbollah and other Iran-backed Shia allies to keep rebel Sunni groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in check in the northwest. •Now conflicts with Israel have severely diminished Iran's proxies, and Al Qaeda-linked HTS spied an opportunity to gobble back territory around Aleppo. HTS and its allied factions launched their most significant attacks on Syrian government forces since the 2020 ceasefire, capturing the largest Syrian army base there - Base 46 - and encroaching to within three miles (five km) of Aleppo city. •Assad's air force - along with its Russian allies and unnamed "friendly forces" - claimed that it responded with a devastating counterattack, but local reports suggest fighting is ongoing - which would portend regime weakness and much more volatility to come. Ukraine •Pres.-elect Trump appointed Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Keith Kellogg to the new post of Special Envoy to Russia and Ukraine, where he'll be tasked with overseeing efforts to bring about a quick end to the war. •Analysts are looking to an April 2024 position paper Kellogg wrote for insight into how he might approach that task. One idea his paper suggested was "to put off NATO membership [for Ukraine] for an extended period" to draw Pres. Putin into negotiations. •Separately, Russia launched another massive barrage of drones and missiles at over 180 targets in western Ukraine near Lviv - far from the front lines. Ukraine intercepted a majority of the projectiles, but the handful that reached their targets took out electricity for over one million Ukrainians. China •According to the Wall Street Journal, Baltic investigators have a theory on how two undersea cables were severed on consecutive days last week. •Investigators believe the Chinese bulk carrier Yi Peng 3 deliberately dragged its anchor along the seabed for more than 100 miles (160 km) and across the two affected cables. As one investigator pointed out: "It’s extremely unlikely that the captain would not have noticed that his ship dropped and dragged its anchor, losing speed for hours and cutting cables on the way." •They don't think the Chinese government was involved, but they do suspect Russian intelligence was. (The Kremlin called these "absurd, unsubstantiated accusations.") Mexico •Pres.-elect Trump and Mexico's Pres. Sheinbaum spoke by phone yesterday to address Trump's concerns about illegal immigration through Mexico - and his threat to slap a 25% tariff on Mexican imports to the U.S. if Mexico doesn't address his immigration concerns. •Trump's readout suggested the conversation was easy as pie: he said Sheinbaum agreed to "stop Migration through Mexico, and into the United States, effectively closing our Southern Border." 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 28 Oct •The Big Five tech companies - Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft - all report quarterly earnings this week, starting tomorrow. •Hindus celebrate Diwali - the festival of lights - Thursday and Friday. •Moldova votes in a runoff election on Sunday. Pro-Western Pres. Sandu will probably win reelection, despite alleged Russian interference against her. •Daylight savings time begins for the U.S. on Sunday, while Europe changed its clocks back yesterday. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,678/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,100/ton •Cobalt: $24,300/ton •Copper: $9,603/ton •Gold: $2,730/toz •Lead: $2,046/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.43/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $67.47/barrel •Zinc: $3,102/ton Iran •Israel finally carried out its long-telegraphed retaliatory assault against Iran with "precise and targeted strikes" on mostly-symbolic targets, including air defense systems near energy sites (but not the energy sites themselves). Venezuela •Brazil effectively vetoed Venezuela's admission to the BRICS group of emerging economies by leaving Venezuela off of the list of new members it approved. •Pres. Lula's chief of staff explained that Brazil's veto "has nothing to do with democracy, but with a breach of trust...they promised us something and it was not done." •Despite Brazil's explanation, Maduro fumed about the snub as "inexplicable and immoral" and "an action that constitutes an aggression against Venezuela and a hostile gesture." •The veto was all the more embarrassing for Maduro because he'd traveled all the way to Kazan, Russia for the BRICS summit hoping to be welcomed as a future member - and Pres. Lula wasn't even there to reject him in person: Lula stayed home after a health scare and blocked Venezuela's accession in absentia. •However, as a consolation prize, Maduro got a meeting with Pres. Putin on the sidelines. Maduro said they discussed energy and defense cooperation and proposed a "new international financial system" to circumvent sanctions. •Separately, the U.S. Dept. of Justice charged Raul Gorrin Belisario - a Maduro crony who owns the pro-government Globovision news network - with laundering $1.2 billion in "corruptly obtained" oil revenues. Belisario's whereabouts are unknown. Gaza •While a full Gaza ceasefire deal remains elusive, Egypt proposed a baby step towards one. The Egyptian proposal calls for a two-day ceasefire in Gaza in exchange for the release of four Israeli hostages (and some Palestinian prisoners). Neither Israel nor Hamas has responded yet. Libya •Libya's NOC has been cajoling foreign oil firms to fulfill their contractual obligations to drill on their oil licenses, and several license-holders are starting to comply - perhaps reluctantly, given weak oil prices. •Italy's Eni and the UK's BP just began onshore drilling in the Ghadames Basin of Libya after a 10-year hiatus, while Spain's Repsol is preparing to resume drilling in the Murzuq Basin and Austria's OMV aims to restart operations in the Sirte Basin soon. China •The NYT reported that Chinese hackers tried to access cell phones belonging to Donald Trump, J.D. Vance, and possibly Kamala Harris. It's not clear whether they were successful. •Georgia's ruling Russia-appeasing Georgian Dream party won parliamentary elections. The pro-Western opposition rejected the official results, calling them "tantamount to legitimizing Russia’s takeover of Georgia." •Bolivia's ex-Pres. Evo Morales claimed he survived an assassination attempt yesterday and accused his bitter rival, incumbent Pres. Luis Arce, for orchestrating the attack. Meanwhile, Arce's Deputy Security Minister said police are investigating whether Morales had staged "a possible self-attack" to win voters' sympathy. Morales and Arce are locked in a vicious battle over their Movement Toward Socialism party's leadership, and their feud will likely worsen ahead of elections next year.
Open source reportOff Leash update 25 October Gaza •U.S. diplomats are hopeful that there's still a window to secure a Gaza ceasefire / hostage release deal following the death of Hamas's antagonistic leader, Yahya Sinwar. •CIA Director Burns is traveling to Qatar this weekend to meet Israeli officials and push for a deal. It's not clear whether Hamas agreed to join the Qatar talks - or who would represent Hamas if it does join talks. •Qatari mediators said they and Egyptian interlocutors had both had "some meetings...in the last couple of days" with representatives of Hamas's political office in Doha, but said there was "no clarity" over the group's negotiating plans. •PM Netanyahu said he hopes the talks will result in a ceasefire and hostage release deal, but media reports suggest he's the one who blocked previous truce proposals by moving the goalposts. There are no indications he's more willing to negotiate now that his position is stronger. Haiti •Gang violence has worsened lately in Haiti - despite the presence of a Kenya-led and UN-backed police force that arrived in June. •Earlier this week, two gangs - 400 Mawozo and Chen Mechan - seemingly deliberately targeted U.S. Embassy vehicles in Port-au-Prince, leading the Embassy to evacuate up to 20 of its "non-emergency" diplomats from the post. •Yesterday, armed gangsters shot at a UN humanitarian helicopter flying over the capital, landing at least eight shots and leading the UN to cancel its aid flights today. •The head of the UN's Integrated Office in Haiti told the UN Security Council: "The situation in Haiti has regrettably worsened." Iran •Mounting murmurs suggest Israel will launch its carefully-planned re-retaliation against Iran imminently. •Iran seems to be bracing for it and hoping it will be muted. Iranian officials have hinted that if Israel demonstrates restraint with a symbolic strike instead of a devastating one, Iran will let it be the last word and won't re-re-retaliate. •On the other hand, Iranian officials told the NYT that Ayatollah Khamenei has ordered a response if Israel assassinates senior officials or strikes oil or nuclear facilities. Russia •This week's BRICS summit in Kazan was widely seen as a victory for Pres. Putin: despite Western sanctions and opprobrium, he attracted 36 world leaders - as well as UN SecDef Guterres - to a forum where he fueled grievances with the West and its "perverse methods" and cast himself as an unfairly maligned counterweight. •Meanwhile, the WSJ reported that Russia has engaged in some perverse methods of its own by providing Yemen's Houthi rebels with satellite data to target their attacks on Red Sea shipping. Analysts said Russia's motive is to provoke instability and distract U.S. resources away from Ukraine. Sahel •Armed militants attacked a northern Nigerien border post near the frontier with Mali. Both Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen (JNIM) - a jihadist group - and Nigerien Tuareg rebels claimed the attack. The Institute for the Study of War said the dual claim "possibly indicate[s] that the two groups are coordinating their operations." JNIM hasn't previously attacked so far north, but it has previously coordinated with Malian Tuaregs - so coordinating with their Nigerien counterparts is well within the realm of possibility. Strategic Minerals •The U.S. Interior Dept. approved Australian mining company ioneer's mining project in Nevada, which will supply lithium for up to 370,000 electric vehicle batteries per year at full capacity. Environmentalists opposed and stalled the proposal, but a six-year review process led to a "science-based decision" to approve it. Construction will be funded by a $700 million loan from the U.S. Dept. of Energy and a $450 million investment from Sibanye Stillwater.
Open source reportOff Leash update 21 October Coming Up This Week •World Bank and IMF annual meetings take place in Washington, DC today through Saturday. Climate change programs are high on the agenda - although rich countries don't want to pay for them and indebted poor countries can't afford to. •Leaders of Commonwealth countries (the UK and most of its ex-colonies - or, roughly, countries that play cricket) meet in Samoa starting today. It's the first biennial Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting that King Charles III will lead. •Russia will host BRICS leaders for the bloc's 16th annual summit in Kazan tomorrow through Thursday. This will be the first opportunity for its new members (Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE) to join the namesake original members (Brazil Russia, India, China, and South Africa) for the meetings. [Saudi has been invited to join the bloc but isn't an official member yet and won't join this year's summit.] The group will discuss the possible future accession of up to 15 new members, including Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. •Uruguay and Japan will both vote on Sunday. A leftist opposition candidate, Yamandú Orsi, leads Uruguay's presidential polls, but not by enough to avoid a runoff. In Japan's snap poll, the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party hopes to recover public trust it lost in recent financial scandals, but it risks losing ground to a divided opposition. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,552/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,100/ton •Cobalt: $23,995/ton •Copper: $9,472/ton •Gold: $2,733/toz - an all-time record high •Lead: $2,034/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.28/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $70.34/barrel •Zinc: $3,082/ton Cuba •Cuba suffered four nationwide electrical grid failures over the weekend. •The energy minister blamed power plant problems, and it's no surprise that the island's outdated plants are failing: Fidel Castro once called them "prehistoric." The eight plants that produce Cuba's electricity are almost 50 years old - nearly twice their useful life - and poorly maintained. •The government seems to expect some blowback over the grid failures: Pres. Diaz-Canel appeared on national television (between blackouts) in fatigues to urge Cubans to express their frustrations peacefully. Middle East •Israel carried out airstrikes against Hezbollah's financial partner, Al-Qard al-Hasan, in Lebanon, and against Hamas in northern Gaza. •Militants in Hezbollah targeted PM Netanyahu's coastal residence, Caesarea, in a drone strike over the weekend. One drone penetrated Israeli air defenses but caused no casualties. Ukraine and Russia •Yulia Navalnaya - the widow of murdered dissident Alexey Navalny - told BBC that she intends to continue her late husband's fight against Pres. Putin: "I will do everything to make his regime fall as soon as possible." •Navalnaya also said she intends to run for president of Russia as soon as Putin is out of the picture (she rationally fears returning to Russia while Putin is still in power because his government - which killed her husband - has accused her of extremism too). •Separately, Ukraine sent hundreds of drones into several regions of Russia overnight. Russia intercepted most of them, but one penetrated Russian air defenses and struck a military explosives manufacturer deep inside Russian territory. •Russia also targeted Kyiv with airstrikes over the weekend. North Korea •South Korea's spy agency studied satellite photos to conclude that at least 1,500 North Korean Special Forces troops are fighting for Russia in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine previously warned that North Korea plans to send up to 10,000 troops to the war. Other News •Moldova voted yesterday on a referendum deeming EU membership a "strategic objective." The outcome is too close to call but slightly tilted in favor of closer ties with (and, eventually, membership in) the EU - despite Russia spending around €100 million supporting the other side.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 11 October Middle East •Israel targeted a senior Hezbollah leader, Wafiq Safa, with an airstrike on central Beirut that killed at least 22 people and wounded at least 117 more. •Israel has often had a fairly high tolerance for civilian casualties in pursuit of its enemies' leadership, but now that it's taken out all of Hezbollah's top officials and is chasing increasingly low-level targets, its heavy-handed tactics are creating fresh resentment. A Beiruti whose apartment was destroyed in the blast told WaPo: "I am a moderate, but after this I am with Hezbollah. They are pushing me to be with the resistance." •Separately (but relatedly), the UN complained that Israeli troops fired on its peacekeepers in Lebanon twice in the last two days. Iran •Iran preemptively warned Israel that a strike on its nuclear facilities would violate "global red lines." •This seems like part of a propaganda blitz that Long War Journal describes as "a series of threats, half-truths, and outright lies in the service of softening the political blow that any Israeli strike could land while also raising military costs." •Russia's Pres. Putin met Iran's Pres. Pezeshkian in a hastily-arranged sidebar during a conference in Turkmenistan today. Pezeshkian likely hopes to get Putin's blessing for Iran to buy advanced Russian weapons like Su-35 fighter jets and S-400 air defense systems that Iran has long sought. Pakistan •Heavily-armed insurgents attacked coal mines in the Duki district of Balochistan, apparently targeting minority ethnic Pashtuns - at least 20 of whom died - and destroying mining machinery. •Local officials blamed Baloch separatists who have been intensifying their attacks on outsiders they perceive as threats to their quest for an independent state - like the Chinese engineers they killed with a suicide car bomb in Karachi on Monday. •The Pakistani government has ramped up security ahead of next week's Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Islamabad - lest Baloch separatists try to disrupt the talks. Ukraine •Ukraine's Parliament approved a major tax hike that will supplement increasingly hesitant donor contributions for its war effort. Personal income tax will nearly quadruple (from 1.5% to 5.0%) and bank profits will be retroactively taxed at double their previous rate of 25%. Much of the funds raised will go towards the war: military spending is currently over half the country's $100 billion annual budget. •Ukrainian journalist Victoria Roshchyna died in Russian detention, aged 27. Russia captured her in occupied eastern Ukraine in August 2023 and has released little information about why she was arrested or where in Russia she was being held. The Ukrainian journalists union is seeking to find out how and when she died. Other News •The Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded this year's peace prize to Nihon Hidankyo, a group of Japanese atomic-bomb survivors, for "its efforts to achieve a world free of nuclear weapons." •The chair of the award committee noted that its choice recognized that the "taboo against the use of nuclear weapons is under pressure" at present, which some media read as a rebuke on Russia's lowered threshold for using its nukes.
Open source reportOff Leash update 6 Sept Venezuela •Venezuela's opposition leader Maria Corina Machado gave an online press conference in which she told international journalists what they already knew: "Everyone knows that [opposition candidate] Edmundo González is the president-elect." •Machado also called on the U.S. to "do much more" to punish Pres. Maduro for his false claim to the presidency. •A State Department spokesman responded blandly: "We are considering a range of options to demonstrate to Maduro and his representatives that their misgovernance in Venezuela has consequences." China •During this week's Forum on China-Africa Co-operation, Pres. Xi promised African countries 360 billion yuan ($51 billion) in financing over the three years until the next triennial Forum. •He also committed one billion yuan ($141 million) to training African armies, which is a small sliver of the $2 billion the Pentagon spends on its African operations - including AFRICOM as well as assistance and training programs. •Xi hopes to present Chinese funding as an alternative to Western support. He told the African leaders gathered at the Beijing Forum: "the Western approach to [modernization] has inflicted immense sufferings on developing countries." •Separately, China said it would stop allowing foreigners to adopt Chinese babies unless they're blood relatives or step relatives of the adoptee. With a declining birth rate, Beijing probably hopes to keep enough young'uns working in China to support an aging population. Ukraine •Speaking at an international audience in Vladivostock, Pres. Putin brushed off concerns about Ukraine's invasion of Kursk, saying Russia's offensive in eastern Ukraine is its "first-priority goal." •He chided Ukraine for sending "fairly large and well-trained units" into Kursk: "The enemy’s goal was to make us nervous and worry and to transfer troops from one sector to another and stop our offensive in key areas, primarily in the Donbas. Did it work or no? No." (The U.S. and Ukraine both said small numbers of Russian troops were transferred to Kursk - but it wasn't the large redeployment Ukraine hoped for). •Separately, Ukraine accused Russia of executing three Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) as they sought to surrender in Donetsk. Ukraine's Prosecutor General's Office says it's investigating 54 such cases of Russian troops executing Ukrainian POWs over the course of the war. Israel •Israel ended its operation targeting Islamic Jihad militants in Jenin after nine days. It was one of the most significant recent Israeli operations in the West Bank. •Israel said it targeted militants preparing attacks on Israeli civilians, and indeed, most (but not all) of the 21 Palestinians killed during the operation were claimed by Hamas, Fatah, or Islamic Jihad as fighters. Sudan •A UN-backed team in Sudan concluded that both sides - the Rapid Support Forces and the military - may have committed war crimes and crimes against humanity, and recommended an arms embargo and a UN peacekeeping force. The UAE has been supporting the Rapid Support Forces, and will object to UN peacekeeper scrutiny. Electric Vehicles •Volvo ditched its plans to produce only electric vehicles (EVs) by 2030 amidst a slowdown in demand for EVs. Instead, it said only 10% or less of its cars would be "mild hybrids" by 2030 - but reiterated that "our future is electric." •Volvo isn't the only EV maker scaling back its ambitions as the market for EV cools. Toyota also reduced its EV production target for 2030 by one third.
Open source reportOff Leash update 3 Sept Venezuela •A Venezuelan court issued an arrest warrant for Edmundo Gonzalez - the opposition candidate who defeated Pres. Maduro in the July 28 presidential election - on charges of "usurpation," conspiracy, and sabotage. •The usurpation charge is particularly curious, given that Gonzalez has a very legitimate claim to the presidency Maduro accuses him of trying to usurp: the opposition's online tallies showed that Gonzalez received over twice as many votes as Pres. Maduro (67% vs. 30%), which is consistent with exit polls and pre-election independent surveys. [Maduro and his allies have refused to provide evidence for their dubious claims that Maduro won 52% of the vote.] •The arrest warrant is a significant escalation in Maduro's campaign to silence the opposition, but not an unexpected one: Maduro and his close allies have increasingly called for the arrest of Gonzalez and opposition leader Maria Corina Machado (who won the opposition's primary but was banned from running against Maduro herself). •Gonzalez and Machado are both in hiding but continue their campaign from there. Machado reacted to the warrant on Gonzalex on X: "Threatening the President-elect will only achieve more cohesion and increase the support of Venezuelans and the world for Edmundo Gonzalez." •Separately, the U.S. seized Maduro's Dassault Falcon 900EX from the Dominican Republic and brought it to Florida. •The U.S. Department of Justice justified seizing the plane - which CNN called "Venezuela's Air Force One" - on grounds that it was bought illegally through a shell company and "smuggled" to Venezuela "for use by Nicolás Maduro and his cronies" in violation of international sanctions. Gaza •PM Netanyahu defiantly withstood pressure from over 100,000 protesters who demonstrated across Israel for a ceasefire deal to secure the release of ~70 surviving Israeli hostages still in Hamas's hands. •Netanyahu rejected the idea of making "concessions" to secure a deal, and told a press conference the war will only end "when Hamas no longer rules Gaza." •Israel's largest trade union - representing over 800,000 people - had called its first strike since Oct. 7 in support of a deal, but it quickly complied with a court order to end the strike the day it started. •While a ceasefire remains as elusive as ever, there was a tiny bit of good news from Gaza: the WHO's polio vaccination campaign is remarkably running ahead of schedule - despite the backdrop of an ongoing war. Around a quarter of Gazan children under 10 have already been vaccinated since innoculations started on Sunday. Russia •Pres. Putin landed in Mongolia today, marking the first time he's set foot in a member state of the International Criminal Court (ICC) since the ICC issued a warrant for his arrest. ICC member states are obligated to carry out the court's arrest warrants when a subject enters their territory. •Mongolia declined to execute the ICC's warrant for Putin's arrest, and offered him a red carpet welcome instead. •Putin was clearly confident that Mongolia's reliance on Russian fuel would trump its (unenforceable) ICC obligations. Ahead of his arrival in Mongolia, a Kremlin spokesman brushed off concerns that he could be arrested there: "There are no worries, we have a great dialogue with our friends from Mongolia." DRC •Inmates at Kinshasa's Makala prison attempted a jailbreak early yesterday under the cover of a large fire, but guards quickly regained control by shooting at least 24 prisoners dead. Another 80 or more died in the stampede or from smoke inhalation. Libya •The UN brought Libya's rival sides together for talks on resolving their dispute over the central bank's leadership. Mediators claimed the two sides achieved "significant" understanding and agreed to submit proposals for a resolution for review today. That seems too quick to come up with a solution to a dispute that's been simmering for over a decade.
Open source reportOff Leash update 21 August Venezuela •Despite global weekend protests against Pres. Maduro's theft of last month's election, Maduro hasn't budged. The Carnegie Endowment wrote that Maduro "has dug in and is waiting for global attention to move elsewhere." •If he's allowed to stay, an analysis by Meganalisis suggests that over 40% of Venezuela's remaining population of seven million may flee the country by the end of this year. •That would put significant pressure on Venezuela's neighbors - especially Colombia and Brazil, who have suggested holding new elections instead of pushing Maduro to accept the results of the election he lost. Iran •A senior Iranian official said Iran may wait "a long time" to respond to Israel's assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil last month. Analysts read between the lines to interpret that statement to mean Iran's response has been put on hold. Gaza •SecState Blinken left Egypt without a ceasefire deal, and Pres. Biden told the Democratic National Convention that Hamas is "now backing away" from a deal. •An headline in Israel's Haaretz claims Israel didn't actually accept the latest proposal either - "The U.S. Somehow Heard Netanyahu Say 'Yes' to a Gaza Deal. He Didn't" - suggesting the U.S.'s "best chance" bridging proposal never really had much of a chance. •Nonetheless, some mediators remain hopeful that talks will resume this week. •Meanwhile, the Israeli army recovered the bodies of six hostages in a long (>1 mile / >1.6 km) tunnel in Khan Younis. All but one had already been confirmed dead. Ukraine •Pres. Zelensky pleaded with the West to drop its "red lines" prohibiting certain Western weapons from being used inside Russia. •The Western prohibitions were mainly intended to ensure Ukraine doesn't use donated weapons offensively, since doing so could risk Russian retaliation against the west. However, as The Economist pointed out last week in an op-ed justifying Ukraine's Kursk invasion, Ukraine is "morally and legally" allowed to defend itself - "and that right does not stop at the border." •Few real prohibitions remain, anyway: most were dropped this spring after Zelensky's persistent lobbying. •Separately, Ukraine lobbed one of its largest drone volleys yet at Moscow overnight. Russia shot down at least 45 drones - including at least 11 over the Moscow region. There are no clear reports of injuries or significant damage from the drones yet. Russia •Pres. Putin visited the majority Muslim region of Chechnya for the first time in 13 years. During his unannounced visit, he inspected Chechan troops and volunteers preparing to deploy to Ukraine, telling the trainees: "As long as we have men like you, we are absolutely, absolutely invincible.: •Chechan warlord Ramzan Kadyrov claims that he's trained over 47,000 fighters to fight for Putin since the war began. North Korea •South Korea said a North Korean soldier defected early Tuesday, crossing the border on foot - an extremely risky move, given the heavy fortifications and tense trigger fingers along the border. •His was the second defection in two weeks. Analysts say the pattern could be a sign of rising economic hardship in the North - or an indication that South Korea's cross-border broadcasts are improving Northerners' access to information (and K-pop) and leading them to seek a better life in the South. Azerbaijan •Following a visit by Russia's Pres. Putin, Azerbaijan formally applied to join the BRIC bloc of fast-growing economies. •The BRICs began in 2009 with the four countries that formed its acronym - Brazil, Russia, India, China - but has since expanded to include five more countries that want to be in a bloc but don't make the cut for NATO: Egypt, South Africa, Ethiopia, UAE, and Iran.
Open source reportOff Leash update 20 August Gaza •SecState Blinken said Israel has accepted the U.S.'s "bridging proposal" for a ceasefire deal that Blinken called "probably the best, maybe the last" chance to free Israeli hostages. •However, various media reports (e.g. from Axios) suggest PM Netanyahu is only approving the updated terms - which include some of his new demands - because he knows Hamas will reject them. •Indeed, Hamas hasn't formally responded, but it complained that the current terms were biased towards Israel and include "new conditions" it can't agree to, like Israel keeping control of the Philadelphi corridor and implementing a mechanism to prevent weapons smuggling from the south of Gaza to the north. •Egyptian and Qatari mediators are less optimistic than Blinken about a deal, but Iran seems to be holding off on its threatened response to (alleged) Israeli assassinations to allow time for talks to unfold. •Meanwhile, Hamas operatives collaborated with Islamic Jihad - a fellow Palestinian militant group in Gaza - in a botched attack on Tel Aviv on Sunday night. •The militant groups said it was a suicide bombing - which would make it the first suicide bombing in Israel in eight years - however, Israeli police didn't confirm that the assailant died when his explosives detonated early. Their only reported casualty was a bystander who sustained moderate injuries. Ukraine •Ukraine destroyed the third Seim River bridge - of three that Russia could use to reinforce its defense against Ukraine's incursion into Kursk. Ukrainian Air Force commander Gen. Mykola Oleshchuk celebrated the third strike on Telegram: "Minus one more bridge!" •Those three bridges were also the main retreat routes for Russian defenders, so their destruction has left an unknown number of Russian soldiers cut off and at risk of finding themselves in "kettles," as Russia's military calls encirclement. •Pres. Putin certainly won't allow that kind of embarrassment without a rebuttal. As the NYT assessed: "Russians who know President Vladimir Putin expect him to lash out in response, believing that his military has the upper hand." •Putin has already ordered a regiment of his Aerospace Forces to Kursk. China •Chinese and Philippine coast guard vessels collided early yesterday morning near Sabina Shoal in part of the disputed Spratly Islands that China, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Taiwan all claim. As usual, both sides blamed the other for the collision. •The two sides had just signed what the Philippines called a "preliminary understanding" to prevent future confrontations like this in the South China Sea. •After accusing China of ramming its boats yesterday, a Philippine official said, "we are of course disappointed again." Afghanistan •A deputy spokesman for the Taliban government reiterated the Taliban's claim that it's in full control of security within Afghanistan and there are no terrorist groups operating in the country. •Afghanistan's neighbors don't believe that. Pakistan has suffered numerous cross-border attacks by militants taking refuge in Afghanistan, and Iran plans to complete an ambitious program to secure its 200 mile (330 km) border with Afghanistan later this year.
Open source reportOff Leash update 13 Aug Russia •The acting governor of Kursk told Pres. Putin that invading Ukrainian forces now control 28 towns and villages in the Russian border region, and Russia's defense ministry acknowledged the Ukrainians have advanced about 30 km into Russian territory. •Ukraine's top commander claimed his forces now control "about 1,000 square kilometers" (390 square miles) of Russia. •The incursion seems to be getting to Putin. Speaking outside his residence, he complained: "The West is fighting us with the hands of the Ukrainians. The enemy will certainly get the response he deserves, and all our goals, without doubt, will be accomplished." •Putin ordered his military to join the border guard's effort to push Ukrainian forces back across the border, suggesting the border guard alone isn't capable of repelling the invaders. •The NYT assessed that the Ukrainian incursion has two goals: "to draw Russian forces from the front lines in eastern Ukraine and to seize territory that could serve as a bargaining chip in future peace negotiations." Venezuela •Pres. Maduro ordered his defense council to intensify a crackdown on the opposition with "greater speed, greater efficiency and an iron fist." •Maduro has also recently urged Venezuelans to report on their peers who express skepticism about his official (but fraudulent) election results using a state-run app designed for reporting power outages. He additionally ordered upgrades to two prisons to house more political inmates swept up in the crackdown. •Election winner Edmundo Gonzalez and opposition leader Maria Corina Machado remain in hiding, citing fears for their safety and the threat of arrest on outstanding orders - especially after Maduro called them out by name again yesterday ("Where is Mr Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia? Why did he flee? why does he not show his face? Where is the greatest fascist, Mrs Machado, who ordered to kill, who ordered to assassinate?"). •The opposition is organizing global protests against Maduro's stolen election on Saturday, Aug. 17. Iran •The White House expects Iran to stage "a significant set of attacks" in the coming days or weeks in retaliation for the killings of top Hamas and Hezbollah leaders last month. •In response to the Iranian threat, the Pentagon took the unusual step of publicizing the destination of one of its nuclear-powered guided missile submarines: the USS Georgia is heading from the Mediterranean to the Middle East "in light of escalating regional tensions." •The USS Lincoln carrier strike group will also "accelerate" its planned journey from the Indo-Pacific to the Middle East. Gaza •Hamas acknowledged that its guards killed one male hostage and seriously injured two female hostages in two separate incidents. It didn't identify the victims or elaborate on the circumstances, and Israel hasn't been able to corroborate the scant info Hamas offered. •This was the first time Hamas acknowledged that its own militants have harmed hostages: in the past, it blamed Israeli strikes or ground operations for hostage casualties. China •Hong Kong's top court refused to overturn the conviction of former media mogul Jimmy Lai for unlawful assembly during pro-democracy demonstrations. Lai has already served his time on those charges, but remains in solitary confinement on more serious national security charges related to the demonstrations. DRC •Zambia and DRC have already agreed to reopen their shared border following a brief trade spat. The closure lasted only three days because they need each other: Zambia is DRC's second-largest source of imports and DRC is Zambia's fifth-largest.
Open source reportOff Leash update 2 August Russia •After months of complex negotiations, Russia released sixteen prisoners - including wrongfully detained WSJ journalist Evan Gershkovich and former U.S. Marine Paul Whelan - in a swap that also saw Western countries release eight Russian prisoners - including very rightfully detained Russian assassin Vadim Krasikov, who was imprisoned in Germany for murdering a Chechen leader there. •The NYT noted that Pres. Putin "can use [Krasikov's release] to highlight his loyalty to Russian agents who get arrested abroad." Some analysts suggested he'll also use Krasikov to train new recruited hitmen to better evade capture. Ukraine •Ukraine received its first F-16 fighter jets on Wednesday - just before an end of month deadline for the initial transfer. These first jets came from Denmark and the Netherlands; it's not clear how many were in this first wave. Venezuela •U.S. SecState Blinken formally recognized Edmundo González as the winner of last week's disputed election in Venezuela, saying that "it is clear to the United States and, most importantly, to the Venezuelan people that Edmundo González Urrutia won the most votes in Venezuela’s July 28 presidential election." •Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado told the WSJ she's currently in hiding and "fearing for my life, my freedom" after Maduro allies called for her arrest and that of González, who ran in her place after she was barred from the ballot. North Korea •North Korea reported extensive damage from flooding in its northern regions bordering China. •Brushing off the recent swarms of "trash balloons" the North has floated over their shared border, South Korea offered to send humanitarian aid north to its bitter foe. If Kim Jong Un accepts the South's aid, it could lead to the first official talks between them in years. Israel •The NYT published new details on Israel's assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Apparently the explosive device that killed Haniyeh was smuggled into the guesthouse where he was killed months ago. •The blast was so targeted that it killed only Haniyeh and his bodyguard, and Ziyad al-Nakhalah - the leader of Palestinian Islamic Jihad who was sleeping next door - was unscathed with very little damage to his room. •Meanwhile, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah spoke at the funeral of a Hezbollah commander killed in another recent Israeli strike - this one in Beirut on Tuesday, just before the blast that killed Haniyeh in Tehran. •Nasrallah exercised restraint by not calling for prompt retaliation (as Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei did after the Tehran blast). Rather, he vaguely mentioned that the conflict with Israel had entered a "new phase" and warned Israel ominously but non-committally "You do not realize the red lines you have crossed." Hezbollah lobbed a few more rockets over the border. DRC •Ex-Pres. Kabila's wife, Olive Lembe Kabila, said that dozens of youth - reportedly linked to a militia with ties to the ruling Union for Democracy and Social Progress party - tried to break into their family home "to physically eliminate me" on Wednesday. •Mrs. Kabila blamed Tshisekedi and his government for relaxing security around their home to allow construction trucks to pass by. •There were also reports of heavy gunfire near important buildings like the Palais de la Nation, which houses Pres. Tshisekedi's offices, but those seem unrelated.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 30 July Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,289/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $23,100/ton •Cobalt: $26,625/ton •Copper: $9,111/ton •Gold: $2,374/toz •Lead: $2,068/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $1.94/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $75.86/barrel •Zinc: $2,669/ton Venezuela •Pres. Maduro declared victory in yesterday's election. So did his opposition opponent, Edmundo González. •This time, Maduro claimed just 51.2% of the vote - just enough to avoid a runoff, but (Maduro probably hopes) not egregiously incredible enough to spark a revolution. •Many would-be observers boycotted the poll because Maduro tainted it from the start by bullying the opposition ( @MariaCorinaYA ) out of a fair race. And the few observers who participated cited widespread irregularities. •Electoral authorities also prevented the public from fact-checking its count by refusing to release paper tallies printed by voting machines at key polling places. Israel •On Saturday, a Hezbollah rocket killed at least 12 kids and teens on a soccer (football) field in the Golan Heights, a sliver of Syria that Israel occupied in 1967 and annexed in 1981. •Israel's security cabinet authorized PM Netanyahu to decide on the "manner and timing" of a response - likely involving counterstrikes in Lebanon. •One such counterstrike already took place: an Israeli drone strike killed two people and wounded three - including a child - in the southern Lebanese town of Shaqra. China •SecState Blinken criticized China's "escalating" and "unlawful actions" in the South China Sea during a trip to Laos - where he will meet Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. •Blinken will also visit Vietnam, Japan, and the Philippines in an effort to befriend Southeast Asian countries that are feeling threatened by an increasingly bellicose China. North Korea •Saturday was North Korea's Victory Day - commemorating the 70th anniversary of the truce that paused (but didn't end) the Korean War. •Kim Jong Un invited a special guest for the occasion: Russian Defense Minister Shoigu. His presence at the Victory Day festivities serves as a reminder of the increasingly close ties between Russia and North Korea, which were further solidified by Pres. Putin's second visit to the Hermit Kingdom last month. Sahel •Tuareg separatists engaged Malian soldiers backed by Russian Wagner troops near Mali's border with Algeria and - according to the Tuaregs - "decisively obliterated these enemy columns" over three days of fighting. •The Tuareg have been fighting for independence since 2012, but they started this latest round of fighting in response to recent military offensives that recaptured formerly rebel-held territory. •The rebels say they seized "a large amount of equipment and weapons" and took "dozens" of Wagner fighters captive. •The Malian army says two soldiers died and also acknowledged losing a helicopter in another nearby rebel stronghold, but said nothing about Wagner involvement in the fighting...officially, Wagner personnel are only in Mali to train local troops and shouldn't be fighting alongside their "trainees." Libya •Libya convicted 12 current and former officials for their negligence in managing dams near Derna that collapsed last year, killing at least 4,300 - and possibly over 12,000. Several were ordered to repay funds obtained through "illicit means," suggesting that the court blamed their misdeeds (at least in part) on corruption. Other News •French authorities are blaming the far-left for last week's organized attacks on French train lines. Today they arrested a far-left activist in Normandy in connection with the incidents. •Meanwhile, a new coordinated infrastructure attack affected fiberoptic telecom networks throughout France (though Paris was not affected).
Open source reportOff Leash Update 20 July Russia •A Russian court sentenced WSJ journalist Evan Gershkovich to 16 years in prison on bogus espionage charges. •Gershkovich probably won't serve all 16 years: Pres. Putin has suggested he could be traded for a high-value Russian prisoner in a swap, but first he had to be sentenced (Russia generally doesn't swap prisoners until after their sentencing). China •China's Third Plenum ended without any meaningful economic policy announcements, disappointing analysts who'd hoped for bolder action to kickstart sluggish domestic growth. •Separately, former president Trump claimed Taiwan "stole" the American semiconductor industry and "should pay" for the U.S. guaranteeing its security. Shares in TSMC - Taiwan's (and the world's) largest chipmaker - slipped 2.4% on concerns that the U.S. might not come to Taiwan's defense if China invades while Trump is president. Venezuela •Venezuela's opposition leader, María Corina Machado - who was blocked from running against Pres. Maduro on July 28 - accused Maduro's goons of staging "a deliberate provocation" to incite her security chief, Milciades Ávila, to come to her physical defense. •Ávila did come to her defense, and he was promptly arrested for it. This is only the latest example of Maduro's security forces intimidating the opposition ahead of the election. •It's not as though Maduro even needs to bully the opposition: he's also electioneering in other ways, including by designing the ballot to show his own name and photo 13 times - under multiple "parties" - before it shows any of the opposition candidates running against him. •Banned from running herself, Machado is supporting the only serious opposition candidate, Edmundo González, who is currently leading several polls - though Maduro certainly won't let him win the real election. Gaza •Israel's far-right national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, paid a provocative visit to the contested holy site of Al Aqsa / Temple Mount in Jerusalem, telling video cameras that he went to pray for the return of Hamas hostages - "but without a reckless deal, without surrendering." •Jordan condemned the visit as "a provocative step" and the White House complained about it as "counterproductive to peace and security in the West Bank" without mentioning Ben-Gvir by name. •Meanwhile, the International Court of Justice ruled that Israel's occupation of the West Bank and East Jerusalem violated international law. Its opinion is nonbinding but influences the media and public perspectives. Terrorism •The Pentagon warned that claimed attacks by Islamic State (IS) are on track to more than double this year vs. last year. •IS has claimed 153 attacks in the first half of 2024 - and in just Syria and Iraq - compared to 121 attacks it claimed in all of 2023 in those two countries. •IS's affiliates have also stepped up their attacks in other regions like Afghanistan (IS-Khorasan) and the Sahel (IS West African Province). •An analyst attributed this year's rise in claimed IS attacks to increasing frustration with the government in Syria and Iraq - which is driving IS's ability to recruit new jihadists there - as well as competition from Iran-linked groups for U.S. counterterrorism priority - which is diverting resources away from fighting IS globally. Minerals •Anglo American said its diamond mining division, De Beers, would cut production amidst falling sales plamed in part on declining demand for diamonds in China.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 8 July Coming Up This Week •India's PM Modi will meet Pres. Putin in Moscow today. It will be Modi's first visit to Russia since Russia invaded Ukraine - and his first trip abroad since he was reelected. He hopes to secure the release of Indian nationals who India says were "duped" into serving in the Russian army. •NATO meets for its 75th anniversary summit in Washington tomorrow through Thursday. •Sunday is a big day in sports: the UEFA 2024 final, the Copa America final, and the men's Wimbledon final all take place on the same day. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,535/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $22,700/ton •Cobalt: $27.150/ton •Copper: $9,944/ton •Gold: $2,378/toz •Lead: $2,237/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.32/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $82.69/barrel •Zinc: $3,001/ton Iran •Reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian won Iran's runoff presidential election. •Pezeshkian seeks warmer relations with the West via experienced diplomats who he hopes will negotiate a softening of sanctions. •However, Iran's presidency has little power to effect real change, and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei - who truly calls the shots - doesn't want change. Analysts say he'll block Pezeshkian's efforts to warm up to the West. •Turnout was around 50% - much higher than the record low 40% logged in the first round. Israel and Gaza •Thousands of Israelis staged anti-government protests across the country yesterday. Demonstrators want fresh elections as well as a ceasefire deal with Hamas to free Israeli hostages. •There's a sliver of a chance that they'll get their wish on the ceasefire deal: Hamas finally dropped its opposition to one of Israel's key demands and indicated that it could agree to release some hostages during an initial six-week ceasefire before further peace talks hash out the long-run plan. •There are still some big obstacles blocking a final agreement, but this removes one of them. That said, Hamas still wants assurances that Israel will commit to continue peace talks after the first round of hostages are released - and Israel has already said it can't agree to that (it wants the option to resume fighting if necessary). •Meanwhile, an Israel strike killed Ehab Al-Ghussein, a senior Hamas administrator, in a Gaza City school where he was sheltering with civilians. Ukraine and Russia •Hungary's Viktor Orban retroactively announced that he had met with Russia's Pres. Putin in Moscow and China's Pres. Xi in Beijing following his surprise talks with Ukraine's Pres. Zelensky in Kyiv. •Orban portrayed his haphazard outreach as a victory for diplomacy: "Hungary is slowly becoming the only country in Europe that can speak to everyone." •Others would say Hungary is the only country in Europe still willing to talk to Putin. NATO SecGen Jens Stoltenberg sought to downplay Orban's visit to Moscow as unrepresentative of NATO's position on Russia: "different NATO allies interact with Moscow in different ways." China •China sailed its largest coast guard vessel into the Philippines' exclusive economic zone and anchored it there, leading the Philippines to (fairly) accuse it of "intimidation." Afghanistan •The Taliban shifted some senior government officials around: the acting Central Bank (Da Afghanistan Bank) head, Hedayatullah Badri, is now Minister of Mines and Petroleum, replacing Shahabuddin Delawar, who will become the acting head of the Afghan Red Crescent Society. Other News •France's legislative elections yesterday resulted in a hung parliament - and a clear loss for Pres. Macron, whose party and coalition lost a third of its seats to both the far-left and the far-right.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 24 June Coming Up This Week •WSJ journalist Evan Gershkovich will go on trial in Yekaterinburg, Russia on trumped-up espionage charges starting Wednesday. The media will be locked out of the trial, which could last between four months and one year. •Iran will vote for a successor to late president Raisi on Friday. The clerics have blocked most reformist candidates from running...which could backfire and split conservative support between five hardline candidates, leaving the sole moderate candidate allowed on the ballot - Masoud Pezeshkian - with a greater share of the vote than he would've otherwise received (he's still unlikely to win - and even if he wins, unlikely to effect change from the mostly-symbolic presidency). •On Saturday, the UN will hold a conference on Afghanistan in Qatar, and the Taliban will attend for the first time. To the dismay of some rights campaigners, the UN dropped all the preconditions that deterred the Taliban from attending the two previous UN conferences on Afghanistan - like including women's rights on the agenda - to encourage Taliban participation. •The first round of France's snap parliamentary election will also take place on Saturday. Polls predict strong support for the far-right Rassemblement National. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,514/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $22,900/ton •Cobalt: $27,150/ton •Copper: $9,683/ton •Gold: $2,332/toz •Lead: $2,191/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.70/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $80.87/barrel •Zinc: $2,844/ton Russia •Gunmen carried out several coordinated attacks on churches, synogogues, and police stations in two cities in the restive, majority-Muslim Russian region of Dagestan. •Russian authorities said the attackers were "adherents of an international terrorist organization," and their tactics and high degree of coordination recall Islamic State-Khorasan's (IS-K's) attack on Crocus Hall three months ago, but no group - including IS-K - has claimed the Dagestan attacks yet. •Pres. Putin prefers to brush ethnic and religious tensions under the rug to preserve pro-Russia harmony, so these latest attacks will be another annoyance for him. Some pro-Putin politicians are already blaming the West (without evidence) for inciting them. Ukraine •Russian authorities also blamed the U.S. for supplying the ATACMS missiles they say Ukraine used in a strike on Crimea that ended up killing at least four civilians on a crowded beach in Crimea yesterday. •[To be clear, Ukraine didn't target a crowded beach: Russia intercepted missiles headed for military targets (which Russia says the U.S. helped identify) as they flew over a crowded beach, causing fragments to fall on beachgoers below.] Gaza •Prime Minister Netanyahu told an interviewer that Israel's current ground offensive in southern Gaza is "about to end," and suggested that he could redeploy some of the troops fighting there to the north to intimidate - and perhaps eventually fight - Hezbollah. •Meanwhile, Israel's Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, is in Washington this week to lobby for continued U.S. support for Israel. Afghanistan •Nicaragua appointed a "non-resident" ambassador to Afghanistan, but stopped short of officially recognizing the Taliban government. The new envoy, Michael Campbell, is also Nicaragua's ambassador to China, and will serve both roles from his office in Beijing. •Afghanistan scored a surprise upset against Australia in the T20 Cricket World Cup on Saturday. I don't understand anything about cricket or how it's scored, but I can tell from the media's gushing reports that Afghanistan's "148/6 (20)" was an impressive win over the reigning champion's "127 (19.2)". Afghanistan plays Bangladesh tomorrow and could still make the semi-finals. Energy in Africa •Guinea-Conakry's junta signed a memorandum of understanding with Russia's Rosatom for an ambitious project to build a floating nuclear power plant.
Open source reportOff Leash update 18 June Russia •Russia's Pres. Putin began an unannounced two-day trip to North Korea today. He's hoping to strengthen his friendship with one of the few world leaders still willing to send him weapons, and Kim Jong Un is hoping Putin will lend Russian assistance to North Korea's nascent satellite surveillance programs. •Both Russia and North Korea deny that they are arms trading, but Putin proclaimed that they are building "alternative mechanisms of trade" that aren't "controlled by the West" (i.e., subject to sanctions). •This was Putin's second trip to North Korea. His first - in 2000 - was the first time a Russian president visited the Hermit Kingdom. North Korea •While strengthening ties with Putin's Russia, Kim has been aggravating tensions with his southern neighbor. South Korean officials say North Korean soldiers have been laying mines and installing anti-tank barriers along the demilitarized border that divides the two Koreas since January. •South Korea reported firing warning shots earlier today to repel 20-30 North Korean soldiers who temporarily crossed over the border while building a barrier. Their incursion seemed accidental and they did not return fire. China •China opened an anti-dumping investigation into EU pork imports that analysts widely see as a retaliation for the EU's new tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs). •Beijing is likely targeting EU pork instead of a perfectly reciprocal levy on EU EVs because a tariff on EU-made EVs would also harm the Chinese brands making cars in Europe. •Meanwhile, the U.S. sided with the Philippines in its latest spat with China over Chinese bullying in the South China Sea. The U.S. called China "aggressive" for seizing two Philippine supply boats after colliding with a third one, and U.S. diplomats reiterated a warning that a 1951 treaty obligates the U.S. to defend the Philippines in case of an armed attack. Ukraine •A Ukrainian drone targeted one of Russia's two oil terminals in the southern port city of Azov, igniting a large fire. Hezbollah •While SecState Blinken tries to keep hope for an Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal alive, another senior U.S. envoy - White House adviser Amos Hochstein - is visiting Lebanon to lobby for an agreement between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah to end their cycle of tit-for-tack strikes over the border. •Hezbollah has linked its strikes to Israel's war in Gaza, so it would be unlikely to agree to a truce before the Gaza war ends.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 6 June Gaza •Israel and Hamas are reportedly still far from agreement on the terms of the latest U.S. ceasefire proposal. Indirect talks continue in Qatar. •Meanwhile, Israel launched a new operation against Hamas in Bureij and Deir al Balah, central Gaza. Israeli forces are hunting Hamas militants "above and below ground," including at a site that Israel says was a Hamas compound hidden in a school. Gaza's health ministry claimed Israel's strike on the school killed 27 people seeking shelter there - not Hamas militants. •A NYT investigation found that Israel planned and funded an ongoing social media campaign to influence U.S. lawmakers to support the war in Gaza by planting pro-war posts by fake "American" users. •Israel's campaign was among the AI-based influence operations Meta and OpenAI recently said had targeted their platforms over the past six months [Russia, Iran, and China also ran similar campaigns.] Both companies said none of the foreign influence campaigns had a widespread impact. Russia •Pres. Putin lashed out at Western countries - especially Germany - for allowing Ukraine to use their donated weapons to strike targets inside Russia. •The U.S. and UK have also given Russia permission to use their weapons to strike Russia, although the U.S. only ok'ed strikes on Russian regions near Kharkiv. •He warned that Russia would reciprocate in kind: "If someone thinks it possible to send such weapons to a war zone to strike our territory and create problems for us, then why do we not have the right to send our weapons of the same class to those regions of the world where strikes can be made on sensitive facilities of the countries that do this against Russia?" •[I would note that Russia was the first to use foreign-supplied weapons in cross-border attacks: it uses North Korean missiles and Iranian drones in Ukraine.] •I highly doubt Russia would consider direct strikes on German, American, or British soil because of the risk of igniting WWIII. Rather, Putin will probably try to target Western assets or personnel in Ukraine. Iran •The UN's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) voted 20-2 (with 12 abstentions) to approve a resolution rebuking Iran for refusing to give IAEA inspectors access to its nuclear sites. •The two no votes were cast by Russia - which buys Iranian drones to use in Ukraine - and China - which circumvents sanctions to buy cheap Iranian oil. •The IAEA censure resolution isn't enforceable, but the fact that 20 countries voted to approve it may add a tiny bit of political pressure on Iran to cooperate with inspectors. (Unlikely) Venezuela •Pres. Maduro uninvited European Union observers from monitoring his farcical July 28 presidential election on hyperbolic grounds that EU compliance with "genocidal sanctions" on Venezuela is "interventionist." •The EU hadn't accepted Maduro's invitation anyway. •Plus, observers don't need to fly to Venezuela to conclude that the election won't be fair: Maduro is already manipulating the vote by bullying the opposition and blocking its strongest candidates from running against him. Other News •A lone gunman wearing a vest labeled "Islamic State" in Arabic and "IS" in English opened fire near the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon. He was quickly shot and arrested. Islamic State hasn't officially claimed the attack yet.
Open source reportOff Leash update 17 May Ukraine •Russia's rapid recent advances have Ukraine and its allies worried, and a senior U.S. military official hinted - for the first time - that NATO will probably eventually send military trainers to Ukraine to support its defense directly: "we'll get there eventually." •Deploying U.S. or NATO troops to Ukraine would not only put NATO trainers at risk on the battlefields; it would also raise the risk of turning Russia's war on Ukraine into a broader Russia vs. NATO war. •Though Ukraine is struggling to repel Russian advances in the north, it carried out two days of successful drone strikes on Sevastopol in occupied Crimea. Satellite images showed at least three destroyed Russian jets and significant damage to buildings, including a power substation. Russia •Pres. Putin finished his two-day trip to China with a visit to Harbin, a northeastern Chinese city with strong Russian ties where China carries out some of its most advanced defense research. •Putin's trip seemed to go well, and he'll probably benefit from some of the defense technologies developed at the research centers he visited in Harbin. Pres. Xi even hugged him goodbye in a rare show of affection between the two uncuddly leaders. Gaza •Israel is sending more ground troops to support its invasion of Rafah, which started out as a limited incursion to avoid crossing the "red lines" Pres. Biden set. Even with added troops in Rafah, Israel will still likely stay clear of any real "red lines" that could jeopardize U.S. weapons shipments. •Aid shipments began arriving in Gaza via the new, U.S.-built pier that opened this week. CentCom was careful to clarify that no U.S. troops went ashore in Gaza during or after the construction of the pier. •The Arab League met in Manama and called for a return to pre-1967 borders and the deployment of a new UN peacekeeping force in "the occupied Palestinian territories" (Gaza and the West Bank). •A UN spokesman responded that it would be premature to send peacekeepers to Gaza now: "there first has to be a peace to keep." North Korea •Kim Jong Un's influential sister, Kim Yo Jong, denied that North Korea has supplied any weapons to Russia, calling suggestions otherwise "the most absurd paradox." •The U.S. and South Korea disagree: they believe North Korea has sent Russia artillery, missiles, and other conventional weapons; and some analysts think North Korea's recent short-range missile tests were demonstrations of weapons it planned to sell to Russia. Mozambique •Human Rights Watch reported that some of the perpetrators of Al Shabaab's May 10 attack in Cabo Delgado were child soldiers as young as 13, suggesting the Islamic State-aligned terrorist group (which is unrelated to Somalia's Al Shabaab except in name and violent inclination) is getting desperate for new recruits. •It's a war crime to recruit and employ child soldiers - but groups like Al Shabaab aren't exactly upstanding defenders of the UN Optional Protocol to the Convention on the Rights of the Child. Other News •Billionaire data privacy defender Frank McCourt said he was amassing a group of investors to offer to buy TikTok from its Chinese parent company. •McCourt sees the acquisition as an opportunity to "create the alternative to the current internet, which has been colonized by large platforms," and envisions a new scenario where users can "control their identity, [and] own and control their data." Note: he should have just invested in https://t.co/fvHOU3SWuy
Open source reportOff Leash update May 16 Ukraine •Analysts are worried about Russia's rapid recent advances along multiple fronts in Ukraine - including two lines of attack in the north near Kharkiv. •The situation is dire enough that Pres. Zelensky postponed his upcoming foreign trips to focus on countering the incursions. •The NYT speculated that Russia's real goal in the north could be to draw Ukraine's forces away from other fronts to reinforce Kharkiv, leaving a thin front line that Russia can assault in another offensive next month. China •Presidents Putin and Xi began two days of meetings in Beijing by celebrating their countries' partnership as "one of the main stabilising factors on the international arena." •They're expected to discuss economic cooperation and the war in Ukraine - in particular, Putin hopes to find ways to expand China's supply of dual-use goods for his war (which Beijing justifies in the name of "safeguarding regional and global security and stability"). •Meanwhile, China vowed to retaliate against new U.S. tariffs on electric vehicles (EVs) and other novel technologies with "resolute measures" - perhaps including countertariffs, restrictions on tech exports, or boycotts of unrelated but important U.S. imports like soybeans. •China may also seek ways to evade the new tariffs. For example, Chinese EV maker BYD previously said it was considering opening new factories in Mexico to build cars for the Mexican market, and U.S. policymakers are concerned it - and other Chinese manufacturers - could use Mexican plants as a backdoor to reach the U.S. market without paying tariffs. U.S. Trade Representative Tai hinted that her office is contemplating additional penalties on tariff evaders. •Separately, China sent dozens of armed ships to block unarmed Filipino demonstrators from asserting their country's claim to the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea. The protesters have the tacit support of their government in Manila, while Beijing hopes that by stymying their demonstration it can legitimize its claim to the atoll. Gaza •Yoav Gallant - Israel's defense minister and a perpetual thorn in PM Netanyahu's side - called on Netanyahu to present a "day-after" plan for running Gaza after the war ends. Netanyahu immediately rejected the idea of committing to a long-run plan while Hamas is still in power, calling it "detached from reality." •U.S. Central Command announced that it anchored the floating pier that will receive humanitarian aid for Gaza. Its first aid shipments - including a UK shipment of 8,400 temporary shelters - are already en route. Other News •Slovakia's PM Robert Fico survived an assassination attempt that appears to have been politically motivated. Fico began his political career in the Communist Party, but has drifted to the right over the course of his three terms as PM, and now has stronger ties with Hungary's PM Orban and Russia's Pres. Putin than some of his pro-European constituents are comfortable with.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 15 May China •The U.S. slapped tariffs on cheap Chinese electronics - including electric vehicles (EVs), solar equipment and batteries - to ensure that domestic production can compete with "unfairly under-priced" Chinese goods in an election year. The tariff rate for inexpensive (but high quality) Chinese EVs like BYD's will quadruple to 100%. And China will probably retaliate. •The Biden administration also ordered a Chinese-linked cryptocurrency mining operation conspicuously located near a U.S. Air Force base that operates nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missiles to shut down within 90 days and sell the land it was working from within 120 days over surveillance risks. •Concerns over the Chinese crypto operation are probably well founded: Microsoft had gone out of its way to warn counterespionnage officials that the operation could allow China to "pursue full-spectrum intelligence collection operations." •Separately, the UK charged three men accused of spying for Hong Kong on Monday, and yesterday its Foreign Office summoned the Chinese ambassador to discuss the arrest and a "recent pattern of behaviour directed by China against the UK, including cyber-attacks, reports of espionage links and the issuing of bounties" (China runs Hong Kong as a special administrative region). •Russia announced that Pres. Putin will visit China this Thursday and Friday. Under their "no limits" friendship, Russia provides cheap energy to China, and China supports (or at least doesn't oppose) Russia's war in Ukraine. The Economist pointed out that Pres. Xi has met (either virtually or one-on-one in person) with Putin over 40 times since 2013 - which is more than twice as many meetings as he's held with leaders of any other country in that time. Gaza •The UN switched to a new, more conservative system for reporting casualties in Gaza, and it resulted in a near-halving of reported deaths of women and children: from 24,000 to 12,756. That's not because the UN confirmed the rest were still alive, though; it's just waiting until more information emerges from the fog of war before it confirms the remaining ~10,000 dead. •The U.S. told Congress it will send Israel another $1 billion in arms - including $700 million of tank rounds, $500 million of tactical vehicles, and $60 million of mortar rounds. It's the first planned weapons transfer to Israel since a shipment of bigger arms was put on hold last week over Israel's planned operations in Rafah (the shipment that will proceed is of smaller arms than the one that was paused). •Meanwhile, right-wing Israeli protesters in the West Bank disrupted Palestinian aid shipments heading to Gaza, ransacking several trucks and setting fire to at least one of them. Other drivers carrying much-needed aid to Gaza said they feared for their safety while carrying out deliveries. Russia •Russia arrested a second senior defense official on bribery charges: Lt. Gen. Yury Kuznetsov - who heads the Defense Ministry's main personnel directorate - is accused of accepting an "exceptionally large bribe" when he was in charge of the military General Staff's directorate responsible for preserving state secrets. His bribes apparently didn't stay secret. •Kuznetsov's was the second big ousting in Putin's defense leadership this week, after Defense Secretary Shoigu's demotion. Shoigu had a much softer landing and will enjoy a cushy new gig on the National Security Council, but Kremlin insiders leaked that Putin privately upbraided him for the military's failures in Ukraine under his command. Ukraine •SecState Blinken is on a surprise visit to Kyiv and met Pres. Zelensky yesterday to reassure him of continued U.S. support after a delay in passing the latest military aid package weakened Ukrainian defenses and confidence. •Zelensky pleaded with Blinken for more air defenses - "two Patriots for Kharkiv" - to help stop Russian advances in the north.
Open source reportOff Leash Update 13 May Coming Up This Week •Israel celebrates Yom Ha'atzmaut - its Independence Day on the Gregorian calendar - starting at sundown tonight, while Palestinians lament Nakba Day - the annual commemoration of their displacement upon Israel's independence in 1948 - on Wednesday. Both holidays will be especially charged this year as the war in Gaza presses on. •The Cannes Film Festival starts tomorrow, but strikes by freelance festival workers threaten to disrupt the soirée. •Singapore's finance minister and deputy prime minister, Lawrence Wong, will become the city-state's fourth prime minister since independence in 1965. •Next Sunday, the Dominican Republic votes in a general election. •Next Sunday is also the final day of the Premier League season. Arsenal leads Manchester City by just one point. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,530/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $15,700/ton •Cobalt: $27,830/ton •Copper: $10,004/ton (an almost two-year high due to supply concerns) •Gold: $2,341/toz •Lead: $2,223/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.29/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $78.51/barrel •Zinc: $2,930/ton Gaza •On Friday, the UN General Assembly voted 143-9 to adopt a resolution stating that Palestine qualifies for full membership at the UN. The vote is a symbol of global support for (eventual, theoretical) Palestinian statehood, but bears no real teeth. •Meanwhile, a ceasefire deal for Gaza still seems elusive. Pres. Biden nudged Hamas to release all remaining hostages - saying that if they did then a ceasefire would be possible - but Hamas retorted that they would "consider [that] a setback to the outcomes of the latest round of negotiations." Russia •Pres. Putin demoted his defense minister and longtime ally, Sergei Shoigu, to run the national security council instead of the military. Some analysts had suspected Shoigu was losing Putin's support when Shoigu's close aide was sacked and charged with corruption last month; this move seems to confirm Putin is turning his attention elsewhere (though Shoigu could still have some-to-significant sway over the war as head of the national security council). •Putin appointed a civilian economist, Andrei Belousov, to replace Shoigu as defense minister. A Kremlin spokesman justified the change by pointing to soaring defense spending that requires deft economic management, as well as a need for "innovation." •A former MI6 officer told The Independent that Shoigu's sacking suggests "really quite serious instability right at the heart of this regime," but other analysts believe it merely indicates the Kremlin is returning to a Cold War level of war spending and needs better budgeting to fight the long war Ukraine has turned out to be (which is more consistent with the Kremlin's rationale). •Interestingly, Putin declined the chance to sack his chief of general staff and a frequent critic of the war, Gen. Valery Gerasimov, during the shake-up: the Kremlin said Gerasimov will stay in his post. Ukraine •Russia launched a rapid new offensive into northeast Ukraine (near Kharkiv) on Friday, and Ukraine's top military commander, Gen. Syrsky, acknowledged the situation there "significantly worsened" over the weekend. Local reports suggest Russia has captured more land area per day than at almost any other point in the war. •Ukrainian defensive lines seem to be holding, although some Ukrainian commanders are blaming others: one wrote on Facebook that "the first line of fortifications and mines just didn’t exist." •On a more positive note for Ukraine, new data showed Black Sea grain and oilseed shipments have rebounded to pre-war levels. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 8 May Gaza •Israeli ground troops entered Rafah yesterday and took control of the border crossing with Egypt. •The U.S. had cautioned Israel against invading Rafah, and the White House said it withheld the shipment of 1,800 x 2,000-lb bombs and 1,700 x 500-lb bombs to Israel last week because of concerns they could be dropped on Rafah - a move the BBC called the U.S.'s "biggest warning yet for Israel." •Perhaps in response to U.S. pressure, Israel appears to have toned down its Rafah plans from the full invasion it had envisaged to "a very precise" counterterrorism operation, and that tempered approach may have helped Hamas back down from its hard threat to walk away from ceasefire talks if Israel entered Rafah: negotiators from both sides remain engaged. •Some reports suggest that the proposal Hamas accepted - which PM Netanyahu seemed dissatisfied with - agreed to release 33 hostages...but that after Hamas's "minor word changes" dead hostages would count among the 33 to be released. Ukraine •Ukraine's security services said they had foiled a Russian plot to assassinate Pres. Zelensky and other military and political figures in Kyiv, and arrested two Ukrainian colonels suspected of treasonous collaboration with Russian intelligence agents on the plan. •Kyiv's official statement alleged that the Ukrainian colonels were part of a Russian-run network assigned to identify other potential traitors with links to Zelensky's security team who could capture the president and then kill him. •Russia has considered similar operations before: Zelensky recently told Italian media that he was aware of at least 10 previous Russian attempts on his life. •Separately, Russia launched a "massive" missile and drone attack on energy infrastructure targets throughout Ukraine early this morning, which was a rather violent way to commemorate today's national holiday celebrating the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany in WWII. Ukraine said it intercepted 39 of 55 Russian missiles and 20 of 21 drones. Russia •Pres. Putin was inaugurated for a fifth six-year term as Russia's head of state. •Hopefully he didn't celebrate his inauguration in the same way he honored a 2013 visit by former (and late) Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi: Berlusconi's former aide recently recounted a bizarre anecdote from that trip in which Putin shot dead a deer and cut out its heart for his hunting buddy Berlusconi, who promptly puked behind a tree. •Anyway, Russian law now requires Putin to form a new government at the start of his new term, and - while he's allowed to roll over the exact same government in place now and has shown no sign of considering a major pivot - analysts say this could be a good time to make some minor changes. •In particular, some think Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu's job may be at risk after his deputy was sacked last month. China •The UK's defence secretary said his Ministry of Defence (MoD) believes a hack of its payroll system "was the suspected work of a malign actor," and media leaks strongly hinted that the MoD blamed China. China reacted to the implication, calling it a "fabricated and malicious slander." •Separately (though perhaps not entirely unrelated to news of Chinese hacking), TikTok sued the U.S. government over a proposed law that would force TikTok's Chinese parent company, ByteDance, to divest the app or face a ban. Afghanistan •A sticky bomb targeted a Taliban convoy in restive Badakhshan province today - just a day after the army chief said he'd addressed local farmers' concerns about the poppy ban and quelled their unprecedented protests over it (by threatening to bring the military in). It appears the farmers are still upset. Strategic Minerals •Chinese cobalt reached its lowest price since April 2016 - $29,065 per ton (min. 99.8% Co min, ex-works) - because of oversupply caused by a rapid expansion in Chinese processing capacity. China processes 70-80% of the world's cobalt.
Open source reportOff Leash update May 7 Gaza •Hamas said it has accepted the terms of a ceasefire proposal from Egypt and Hamas that could stop the fighting - at least temporarily. •The terms of the proposal aren't yet public, but the NYT reported that experts say it has only "minor word changes" from the one Israel recently offered. However, other reports suggest PM Netanyahu has already rejected the proposal Hamas accepted as "far from Israel's basic requirements." •The U.S. is pushing Israel to consider the proposal on the table and hold off on sending ground troops into Rafah, but the clock is winding down: Israel's War Cabinet approved the ground invasion of Rafah unanimously, and prospects for a deal will dim after that begins, since Hamas has threatened to walk away from talks once it starts. •Families of the remaining hostages are also pleading with Israel to accept a deal instead of invading Rafah: some of them are blocking highways in Ayalon to make their demands heard. •Separately, Israeli police raided the local offices of Al Jazeera after Israel's parliament ordered the network to cease operations in the country on national security grounds. Al Jazeera defiantly called the raid a "criminal action" and continued to criticize Israel's war in Gaza. North Korea •The Economist reported that North Koreans were asked to swear their loyalty to Kim Jong Un during a ceremony on Jan. 8 celebrating Kim's 40th birthday. Analysts think the loyalty oaths were designed to solidify Kim's grip on power by boosting his cult of popularity. Ukraine and Russia •Russia said it would hold new military exercises near Ukraine to practice for the possible future use of "tactical" battlefield nuclear weapons. •Pres. Putin has consistently denied - including as recently as March - that he's ever considered using tactical nukes, so these exercises seem like provocative bluster in reaction to recent escalating rhetoric from Western leaders like France's Pres. Macron, who refused to rule out sending French troops to Ukraine (though he most likely would never do so), and top UK diplomat David Cameron, who said Ukraine is free to use weapons from the UK to strike targets inside Russia. •Separately, Russia detained a U.S. Army soldier in Vladivostok on charges of criminal misconduct. U.S. military personnel are strongly discouraged against travel to Russia because of the risk of detentions like this. Libya •Royal Jordanian and Qatar Airways will resume flights to Libya's Tripoli International Airport this month after a long hiatus, and Saudi Airlines is in talks to start servicing Tripoli routes, too. That seems like a good sign of stabilization in Libya - though it took longer than planned to revitalize Tripoli's airport due to cost overruns.
Open source reportOff Leash 10 April Gaza The NYT exposed a covert Iranian operation to flood the West Bank with smuggled weapons - mostly small arms - to foment chaos and create problems for Israel. Iranian officials told the Times the operation isn't focused on a particular armed group - rather, it aims to get guns into as many Palestinian hands as possible. Separately, Israel's defense minister, Yoav Gallant, contradicted his boss's earlier assertion that a date had been set for the ground invasion of Rafah to begin. Gallant told U.S. SecDef Austin that the date has not yet been decided. The U.S. and other countries are still urging Israel to use restraint and forge a peace deal instead of invading Rafah, and their pleas are becoming sharper and more direct. For example, yesterday Pres. Biden criticized PM Netanyahu's approach to Gaza in the harshest terms he's used yet, calling it a "mistake." China Fitch downgraded its long-term outlook for China's sovereign debt from stable to negative based on analysts' expectations that the government will boost its borrowing in an effort to jump start economic growth. Beijing called the downgrade a "pity" and insisted the local "hidden" debts Fitch was especially concerned about are manageable. Russia Melting snow is causing devastating floods along Russia's Ural river, forcing hundreds of thousands of people to evacuate their homes. The Ural floods every year as snow melts off the Ural mountains, but this year's floods are already the worst in decades - and haven't even peaked yet. Some Russians affected by the floods blamed Pres. Putin for ignoring their crisis and staged a rare protest to demand more government help. Separately, Russia's fun-hating republic of Chechnya extinguished another spark of joy by banning dance music that's either too fast (over 116 beats per minute) or too slow (under 80 beats per minute). Chechen musicians have until June 1 to re-record non-compliant tunes within the legal tempo range so they "conform to the Chechen mentality and sense of rhythm." Libya The U.S. State Department clarified recent reports about an American private security contractor - Amentum - training Libyan armed groups: the State Department says Amentum is only offering "classroom training" - not military training - and is conducting its sessions "outside of Libya." DRC Mortar fire killed three Tanzanian troops from the South African Development Community force fighting M23 rebels in eastern DRC. The blasts occurred at the same camp near Goma where two South African soldiers were killed in a similar attack in February. Other News A group of 2,000 elderly Swiss women won a landmark case at the European Court of Human Rights: the court ruled that Swiss policymakers violated the women's human rights by failing to implement adequate climate policies to prevent adverse health outcomes. The case sets a precedent for Europeans to sue their countries for better climate policies. Conservative Swiss media called the ruling "absurd." (EP note. Correct that is completely absurd!)
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