Off Leash Update: Conflict Risks and Policy Shifts Across Seven Theaters

Off Leash update 21 May

GAZA •A day after Canada, France, and the UK criticized Israel for its "wholly disproportionate" war in Gaza, the UK paused its ongoing trade talks with Israel and announced new sanctions on Israelis accused of illegally settling in the West Bank and supporting violence against Palestinians. •Israel's Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, balked that its allies' criticisms have handed Hamas "a huge prize" and accused the allies of indirectly encouraging another Oct. 7-style attack.

IRAN •CNN reported - citing new U.S. intelligence - that Israel is preparing a possible strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. •Though it's not clear whether Israel has approved a strike or only considered one, the possibility alone spooked oil markets and sent Brent crude futures up 1.3%. [Iran exports over 1.5 million barrels per day, which is the third-most in OPEC but still only ~1.4% of global production.]

U.S. •Pres. Trump announced ambitious plans to build a "Golden Dome" missile defense system inspired by Israel's similarly-named "Iron Dome" network, which intercepts (most) incoming rockets and missiles. •The U.S. version would need to protect a far larger area, since the U.S. is 400 times larger than Israel. Estimates for the cost of a U.S. shield range from Trump's figure of $175 billion to a high Congressional Budget Office estimate of $542 billion.

SYRIA •U.S. SecState Rubio told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that Pres. Trump decided to lift U.S. sanctions on Syria because it calculated that Syria's interim government was "maybe weeks, not many months, away from potential collapse and a full-scale civil war of epic proportions—basically the country splitting up" and needed urgent sanctions relief for the best chance at avoiding that nightmare scenario. •EU foreign ministers followed the U.S. lead and lifted the remaining economic sanctions on Syria yesterday, but they also introduced targeted sanctions on Syrians accused of abusing human rights and sowing sectarian violence.

SUDAN •Sudan's army clashed with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Omdurman. •The army recaptured the nearby capital city of Khartoum from the RSF about two months ago, but it has struggled to regain control of the rest of the capital state amidst intense fighting in and around Omdurman. •The army now claims that the RSF has fled Omdurman, but ongoing gunfire suggests that claim may be premature.

AFGHANISTAN •U.S. SecDef Hegseth announced a fresh inquiry into the military's chaotic 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan and appointed his chief spokesman - not a uniformed military officer - to lead the panel. The NYT noted that his unusual appointment "appeared to reflect a skepticism that uniformed military leaders would hold each other accountable."

VENEZUELA •Venezuela freed a jailed U.S. Air Force veteran, Joseph St. Clair, in an olive branch that Caracas hopes will inspire Pres. Trump to extend Chevron's license to operate in Venezuela. •St. Clair was arrested in October at the border with Colombia, and the U.S. designated him "wrongfully detained."