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11 direct mentions across 11 briefings, with 5 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
The Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces remain unwilling to negotiate, citing their denials of indirect talks; continued weapons acquisition.
Assessment development · updated through
The Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces remain unwilling to negotiate, citing their denials of indirect talks; continued weapons acquisition.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Sudanese Armed Forces dossier
5 mapped developments across 1 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Sudan
A UN official urged outside actors to stop arming both sides. The UAE and Russia’s Africa Corps support the RSF, while Egypt is aligned with the SAF and Iran is considering providing the SAF with weapons.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Contested political processes in Tanzania and Ivory Coast, Argentina’s legislative election, U.S. diplomacy in Asia, commodity prices and an RSF claim from El Fasher.
Open source reportThe Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces remain unwilling to negotiate, citing their denials of indirect talks; continued weapons acquisition.
Open source reportProspective Ukraine talks, M23 massacres in eastern DRC, Iranian water and power shortages, contested foreign involvement in Sudan, a fatal Ghanaian helicopter crash and expanded U.S. tariffs.
Open source reportThe Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces are contesting Kordofan while the RSF besieges army-held El Fasher. Widespread civilian suffering; neither belligerent is gaining decisive traction.
Open source reportWestern pressure on Israel, possible Israeli preparations against Iran, a proposed U.S. missile shield, sanctions changes for Syria, fighting in Sudan, an Afghanistan withdrawal inquiry, and a U.S. detainee’s release by Venezuela.
Open source reportOff Leash update 22 April 2025 RUSSIA AND UKRAINE •Perhaps swayed by U.S. pressure to figure out a ceasefire, Pres. Putin told reporters that he's open to direct bilateral peace talks with Ukraine. It would be the first time the warring neighbors have engaged in direct talks since the early weeks of the war in 2022. •The U.S. has proposed a broad ceasefire plan that it hopes Ukraine and Russia will agree to, but the U.S. plan lacks key details that could become sticking points as negotiations develop. ISRAEL •Prime Minister Netanyahu is facing a new political crisis after his domestic security chief, Ronen Bar, accused him of making multiple improper and politically-motivated requests. •Bar - whom Netanyahu unsuccessfully tried to sack last month - claimed in an audacious affidavit to the Supreme Court that Netanyahu pressured Bar's domestic security service (Shin Bet) to spy on Israeli citizens involved in anti-government protests, asked Bar to side with him over the Supreme Court if a constitutional crisis should ever split allegiances, and tried to cajole Bar into signing an opinion that would have effectively pardoned Netanyahu from corruption charges he faces. [Netanyahu rejected Bar's letter as a "false statement" and said he plans to refute Bar's claims "in detail."] •Bar's bold accusations aren't as much of a threat to Netanyahu's political survival as the corruption charges he's contesting in court, but they give the Prime Minister's critics additional grounds to call for his resignation - which won't be forthcoming. SUDAN •The European Commission and its member states marked the end of this week's high-level summit on the war in Sudan - which excluded both parties fighting in it - with aid pledges totaling €522 million ($600 million). That's almost exactly double the amount the European Union earmarked for Sudan last year, but it doesn't come close to filling the $3.8 billion gap in additional emergency funding that the UN says Sudan still needs for 2025. •The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) weren't invited to the summit and continued fighting instead. The SAF accused the RSF of killing over 30 civilians yesterday in the course of its offensive to capture El Fasher, which is the capital of North Darfur and the only major city in Darfur that the RSF doesn't control. VENEZUELA •Venezuela bluntly rejected a proposal from El Salvador's Pres. Bukele to swap 252 Venezuelans deported from the U.S. to Salvadoran jail for the same number of political prisoners swept up in Pres. Maduro's post-election crackdown. •Maduro's attorney general, Tarek Saab (who is under U.S., UK, and EU sanctions for helping Maduro repress democracy in Venezuela), called Bukele's swap proposal "cynical" and accused Bukele of being a (fellow) "serial human rights violator" for his crackdown on gang violence. •Some Venezuelan opposition figures quickly welcomed Bukele's proposal, but their main leader, Maria Corina Machado, has yet to comment on it. VATICAN •Pope Francis passed away yesterday at age 88. Argentine-born Francis was the first non-European pope in over 1200 years, and he broke from his European predecessors in many ways: becoming the first pope to visit the birthplace of Islam (Saudi Arabia), refusing to judge homosexuals or divorcées, and overseeing radical (by Vatican standards) institutional change - though, as The Economist pointed out, "not as much [change] as he hoped." •A conclave of 135 cardinals under age 80 - all but 27 of whom were appointed by Francis - will now choose the next spiritual leader of the world's ~1.4 billion baptized Roman Catholics.
Open source reportOff Leash update 22 April 2025 RUSSIA AND UKRAINE •Perhaps swayed by U.S. pressure to figure out a ceasefire, Pres. Putin told reporters that he's open to direct bilateral peace talks with Ukraine. It would be the first time the warring neighbors have engaged in direct talks since the early weeks of the war in 2022. •The U.S. has proposed a broad ceasefire plan that it hopes Ukraine and Russia will agree to, but the U.S. plan lacks key details that could become sticking points as negotiations develop. ISRAEL •Prime Minister Netanyahu is facing a new political crisis after his domestic security chief, Ronen Bar, accused him of making multiple improper and politically-motivated requests. •Bar - whom Netanyahu unsuccessfully tried to sack last month - claimed in an audacious affidavit to the Supreme Court that Netanyahu pressured Bar's domestic security service (Shin Bet) to spy on Israeli citizens involved in anti-government protests, asked Bar to side with him over the Supreme Court if a constitutional crisis should ever split allegiances, and tried to cajole Bar into signing an opinion that would have effectively pardoned Netanyahu from corruption charges he faces. [Netanyahu rejected Bar's letter as a "false statement" and said he plans to refute Bar's claims "in detail."] •Bar's bold accusations aren't as much of a threat to Netanyahu's political survival as the corruption charges he's contesting in court, but they give the Prime Minister's critics additional grounds to call for his resignation - which won't be forthcoming. SUDAN •The European Commission and its member states marked the end of this week's high-level summit on the war in Sudan - which excluded both parties fighting in it - with aid pledges totaling €522 million ($600 million). That's almost exactly double the amount the European Union earmarked for Sudan last year, but it doesn't come close to filling the $3.8 billion gap in additional emergency funding that the UN says Sudan still needs for 2025. •The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) weren't invited to the summit and continued fighting instead. The SAF accused the RSF of killing over 30 civilians yesterday in the course of its offensive to capture El Fasher, which is the capital of North Darfur and the only major city in Darfur that the RSF doesn't control. VENEZUELA •Venezuela bluntly rejected a proposal from El Salvador's Pres. Bukele to swap 252 Venezuelans deported from the U.S. to Salvadoran jail for the same number of political prisoners swept up in Pres. Maduro's post-election crackdown. •Maduro's attorney general, Tarek Saab (who is under U.S., UK, and EU sanctions for helping Maduro repress democracy in Venezuela), called Bukele's swap proposal "cynical" and accused Bukele of being a (fellow) "serial human rights violator" for his crackdown on gang violence. •Some Venezuelan opposition figures quickly welcomed Bukele's proposal, but their main leader, Maria Corina Machado, has yet to comment on it. VATICAN •Pope Francis passed away yesterday at age 88. Argentine-born Francis was the first non-European pope in over 1200 years, and he broke from his European predecessors in many ways: becoming the first pope to visit the birthplace of Islam (Saudi Arabia), refusing to judge homosexuals or divorcées, and overseeing radical (by Vatican standards) institutional change - though, as The Economist pointed out, "not as much [change] as he hoped." •A conclave of 135 cardinals under age 80 - all but 27 of whom were appointed by Francis - will now choose the next spiritual leader of the world's ~1.4 billion baptized Roman Catholics.
Open source reportNegotiations over Ukraine strike restrictions, renewed Gaza combat, Sudanese military gains in Khartoum and a proposed rebel withdrawal in eastern DRC.
Open source reportOff Leash update 19 Feb DRC •The situation in eastern DRC is unraveling quickly, with both Rwanda and Uganda now actively fighting to tear off pieces of DRC in a manner akin to how the Soviets and Nazis raced to rip Poland into pieces. •After capturing Bukavu over the weekend, Rwandan troops are continuing south and captured Kamanyo yesterday. Their next target could be the city of Uvira. •Meanwhile, Ugandan troops invaded Bunia in the north and called on Congolese forces there to surrender their weapons within 24 hours. The Ugandans appear to be heading for Butembo, and are attacking all Congolese army positions along the way. Ukraine •Senior U.S. and Russian delegations - led by SecState Rubio and Foreign Minister Lavrov - met in Saudi Arabia yesterday for the most significant direct talks between their countries in years. •The main purpose of their summit was to align on a path towards ending the war in Ukraine, but they also agreed to explore what Rubio called "the incredible opportunities that exist to partner with the Russians, geopolitically...and economically" - though Rubio also noted that U.S. sanctions on Russia will remain in place, for now. •European leaders who were left out of the summit - Ukraine's Pres. Zelensky most of all - expressed disappointment that the U.S. would so easily embrace a geopolitical rival after years of leading multilateral efforts to isolate it, and complained that Ukraine must be included in meetings about its future. •Zelensky's complaints about being left out drew a sharp rebuke from Pres. Trump, who appeared to blame Ukraine for being invaded and failing to launch peace talks sooner: "You should have never started it. You could have made a deal." [Trump also taunted Zelensky's low approval ratings, though he cited an inaccurate figure of 4%. Zelensky won 57% approval in the latest survey reported.] •Former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson observed that "Trump’s statements are not intended to be historically accurate but to shock Europeans into action." It seems to be working: EU leaders are organizing another, more inclusive emergency summit on Ukraine tomorrow. Gaza •Hamas reportedly extended an unsolicited offer - apparently at Egypt's behest - to kick off the second phase of ceasefire negotiations with Israel. Under its offer, Hamas would release all of its remaining hostages and hand over control of Gaza to the Palestinian Authority (which governs the West Bank), in exchange for a permanent ceasefire and full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. •Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu bluntly shut the idea down in a post on X: "Not going to happen." Netanyahu is committed to disarming Hamas and evicting it from Gaza altogether - conditions which Hamas has rejected and called "ridiculous psychological warfare." •Meanwhile, Egypt's Pres. Al Sisi will present his broader vision for Gaza in Riyadh tomorrow. Al Sisi's plan is said to call on Arab states to contribute up to to $20 billion to rebuild Gaza. Egyptian and Jordanian diplomats said (off the record) that Pres. Trump has agreed to the Egyptian plan, which was concocted as an alternative to Trump's initial proposal that controversially called for Gazans to be resettled elsewhere. Sudan •Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) said that it, too, plans to form a new government for Sudan. The RSF's government will rival the new government the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) recently said it would form as soon as it retakes Khartoum from the RSF. •The RSF and SAF have been fighting each other in a grueling civil war for nearly two years, so it was pretty clear that their former alliance was over. This week's news that they both intend to establish rival governments merely formalizes their split. •Side note: The fact that the RSF made its announcement from a government convention center in Nairobi, Kenya seems to corroborate the SAF's claims that Kenya is supporting the RSF. Syria 1/2
Open source reportAccording to The Economist, a report that the Sudanese armed forces made gains against the Rapid Support Forces in central Sennar State and Khartoum. The RSF retained control across much of southwestern Sudan.
Open source reportOff Leash update 13 Nov Hezbollah •Israel's foreign minister told the media that "there is some progress in the attempts to reach a settlement in Lebanon," raising hopes for a ceasefire. •However, such hopes now seem premature: Israel's brand-new defense minister, Israel Katz, quickly reaffirmed that "there will be no ceasefire and no respite" until Israel achieves its objectives, which include the lofty goal of returning tens of thousands of northern Israelis to the homes they evacuated due to war. •For its part, Hezbollah said it hasn't received any new peace proposals and is "ready for a prolonged war" with Israel. •It may not last too long anyway. Israel's military said it has "dismantled a majority of Hezbollah’s weapons storage and missile manufacturing facilities" under the Hezbollah stronghold of Dahieh, Beirut. •That hasn't stopped Hezbollah from lobbing more rockets and drones at Israel. The group launched around 200 attacks this week; killing one Israeli soldier and two civilians in separate attacks on northern Israel. •Separately, there are unconfirmed reports that a recent Israeli strike on al-Qusayr, Syria killed Salim Jamil Ayyash: the Hezbollah operative who was accused of (and convicted in absentia by a UN-backed tribunal for) assassinating Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri in 2005. In addition to his tribunal sentence to life in prison, Ayyash had a $10 million U.S. bounty on his head. Yemen •Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis launched drones and missiles at two U.S. destroyers - USS Stockdale and USS Spruance - in the Bab al Mandeb strait off the coast of Yemen. •It sounds like it was a significant barrage: a Pentagon spokesman said it lasted for hours and involved five ballistic missiles, two cruise missiles, and at least eight kamikaze drones. •The Houthis falsely claimed they attacked the USS Lincoln aircraft carrier too, and erroneously claimed its attack "successfully achieved its objectives": the USS Lincoln didn't report any incidents and the destroyers intercepted all incoming projectiles and sustained no damage or injuries. Ukraine •Russia fired missiles at Kyiv for the first time in three months. Ukraine's air defenses intercepted both cruise missiles and both ballistic missiles, as well as 37 drones. Kyiv reported only mild damage to a warehouse and a single minor injury - both from falling debris. Some drones were still flying, though. Sudan •The U.S. Treasury sanctioned the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) commander in West Darfur, Abdel Rahman Juma Barkalla, because of the human rights abuses his troops committed in the region under his command - including kidnapping and killing the regional governor. •Separately, the UN undersecretary-general for political and peacebuilding affairs called for unspecified countries and third-parties to stop sending weapons to the RSF and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). •The UAE and Russia's Africa Corps (fka Wagner Group) are arming the RSF, while Egypt is closely allied with the SAF and Iran is reportedly considering sending weapons to the SAF. Niger •Niger's Mining Minister, Ousmane Abarchi, told state media that the junta had "already met with Russian companies that are interested in coming to explore and exploit Niger's natural resources... not only uranium." (Though uranium is the most significant natural resource Niger has: it's the world's seventh-largest uranium producer). •The junta seems open to handing over its minerals to Russia - especially if it means snubbing French companies like Orano, which was producing uranium in Niger before the coup. Abarchi said French companies won't be allowed to exploit Niger's minerals because France refuses to recognize the junta's power grab. Electric Vehicles •Volkswagen quintupled down on its investment in U.S. electric vehicle (EV) maker Rivian, raising its investment from $800 million to $5.8 billion.
Open source report