Off Leash Intel · loading
12 direct mentions across 12 briefings, with 11 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned the Houthis against joining their benefactor’s war; the group is unlikely to comply.
Assessment development · updated through
Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned the Houthis against joining their benefactor’s war; the group is unlikely to comply.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Marco Rubio dossier
8 mapped developments across 7 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Saudi Arabia
Delegations led by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov discussed a path toward ending the Ukraine war and potential geopolitical and economic cooperation while U.S. sanctions remained in place.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 23 July 2026 UKRAINE •Ukraine struck two more warehouses belonging to Russia's largest retailer, Wildberries, in Krasnodar and Stavropol, destroying an estimated $1 billion in goods. •Pres. Zelensky has justified the strikes with (probably correct) claims that Wildberries sells goods like commercial drones that Russian soldiers are weaponizing against Ukraine, but by targeting a storefront that sells to almost half of Russia's population and sustains at least half a million small businesses that sell on the platform, Zelensky is also achieving his goal of "bringing the war back home" to Russia. •Many small-scale sellers reported losing their entire inventory, leaving them without a way to repay the high-interest rate loans they used to buy the destroyed stock. •Wildberries - likely at the Kremlin's instruction - said it would compensate some of its "most vulnerable" sellers for their losses. It will also need to invest in rebuilding its warehouses with better defenses against future attacks, now that Ukraine has seen how effective its strikes have been. SAUDI ARABIA •As anticipated, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia signed a deal yesterday allowing Saudi to build a civilian nuclear program using American technology and know-how. •Congress must review it before it goes into effect, and it has some critics in Congress who worry about nuclear proliferation. •The NYT astutely observed that the Saudi deal was missing two of the key safeguards against nuclear proliferation that bound a similar deal the U.S. struck with the UAE in 2009: an explicit commitment not to make nuclear fuel, and permission for IAEA inspectors to carry out inspections on short notice and with a wide remit. •The Saudis reportedly refused both provisions. Analysts say the possibility that Saudi could make its own nuclear fuel raises the risk that it could divert its nuclear resources towards a weapons program. [Crown Prince MBS has already said he would build nuclear weapons if Iran does.] •Some also suggested that Iran might see the lax deal the U.S. allowed Saudi to get away with and raise its expectations for what a possible U.S.-Iran nuclear deal could permit. YEMEN •Yemen's Houthi rebels struck two Saudi Arabian oil tankers in the Red Sea yesterday, making good on their threats to enforce a "maritime embargo" on Saudi Arabia. •They also claimed to have forced "10 ships to retreat and return," and shipping data confirmed that at least six vessels reversed course in the Red Sea since the Houthis announced their blockade on Monday. •U.S. SecState Rubio warned the Houthis against getting involved in their benefactor's war, but they're unlikely to heed his warning. VENEZUELA •The Financial Times estimated that the U.S. has received $13 billion in revenue from its sales of Venezuelan oil this year, but called out that only $3 billion of the proceeds has been remitted to Caracas in a transparent way. The Trump administration's critics are calling on the White House to explain where the other $10 billion is. AI •OpenAI divulged that two of its frontier models went rogue during testing and successfully hacked a digital library belonging to another company - Hugging Face - without being prompted to do so. •The incident served to validate concerns that the latest AI models are advancing beyond a level that humans can comprehend well enough to control, and could expose new cybersecurity vulnerabilities faster than humans can patch them.
Open source reportOff Leash update 20 July 2026 COMING UP THIS WEEK •Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burhnam is set to become the next British prime minister today. •Tomorrow, Lebanon's Pres. Aoun will become the first Lebanese president in almost 20 years to visit the White House. •The Commonwealth Games start Thursday in Glasgow, and Comic-Con runs from Thursday through Sunday in San Diego, California. •On Friday, Pres. Trump will attend a rescheduled White House Press correspondents' dinner. Security will be tight to prevent another incident like the shooting that derailed the first dinner. •The 113th Tour de France ends Sunday on the Champs-Élysées in Paris. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,151/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $35,176/ton •Bitcoin: $64,220 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $13,526/ton •Ethereum: $1,863 •Gold: $4,021/toz •Lead: $1,883/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.86/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $82.74/barrel •Zinc: $3,526/ton IRAN •Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) said that two oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz via the southern route Iran has called "unsafe" and warned ships not to use were - passive voice intentional - "exploded and were forced to cease movement." The IRGC didn't explicitly say it fired on the imperiled tankers, but nobody else is striking ships along the southern route that the U.S. Navy is trying to secure. •At least three U.S. soldiers were killed in combat over the weekend: two died in an Iranian missile attack on a U.S. base in Jordan that left another serviceman missing, and one died during a botched operation to defuse a downed Iranian drone in northern Iraq. •U.S. SecState Rubio says the U.S. is still open to negotiating with Iran, and there are limited signs of ongoing diplomacy. But discreet peace talks are getting much less airtime than the nine straight nights of airstrikes the U.S. has carried out on Iranian infrastructure (and Iran's retaliatory attacks on regional allies of the U.S.). •The NYT, citing analysts, warned that infrastructure strikes and U.S. casualties represent an escalation that could prove hard to walk back from. YEMEN •Indeed, Iran reportedly called on its proxy in Yemen, the Houthis, to help ignite a regional conflict by closing the Bab al Mandeb maritime chokepoint if the U.S. strikes Iran's power grid. •The Houthis recently reopened a long-frozen conflict with Saudi Arabia, and seem ready to join their sponsor's side in a regional war. LEBANON •Lebanon's Pres. Aoun will use his meeting with Pres. Trump tomorrow to seek Trump's help pressuring Israel to make good on its commitment to withdraw from two "pilot zones" in southern Lebanon so the Lebanese Army can assume control of them. •That's the first step in a U.S.-backed agreement signed June 26 to end fighting between Israel and Hezbollah. Aoun will then want further U.S. (and international - but not Israeli) help to disarm Hezbollah. UKRAINE •Ukraine struck two warehouses belonging to the Russian online retailer Wildberries. Pres. Zelensky said the warehouses were being used to "supply sanctioned components for drone production and navigation equipment." •They're also symbolic targets for Ukraine's efforts to disrupt daily Russian life and bring the war home to Russians, whose president has sought to isolate them from the effects of the conflict. •Russia responded with one of the largest bombardments yet on Kyiv. The Russian barrage is likely to amplify Zelensky's calls for more Patriot missiles to defend against future such strikes. UK •Andy Burnham - who will become the UK's next prime minister today . •He faces tough challenges governing at the national level. He'll want to maintain good ties with the U.S. and Pres. Trump, make plans to revive Britain's sluggish economy, and ease a fractious debate about immigration.
Open source reportOff Leash update 2 July 2026 UKRAINE •The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a U.S.-based thinktank, published a new analysis estimating casualties from Russia's nearly four-and-a-half years of war in Ukraine. •CSIS estimates that Ukraine has suffered 525,000 to 625,000 losses, including 125,000 to 150,000 deaths, while Russia has lost 1.4 million troops, including 450,000 killed in action (which CSIS notes is "more than four times greater than all U.S. fatalities in all wars combined since World War II, and more than nine times greater than all Soviet and Russian fatalities in all wars combined since World War II"). •CSIS also points out that the relative casualty rates have shifted dramatically in Ukraine's favor lately. While Russia lost two to three soldiers for every Ukrainian casualty for much of the war, this year it has suffered eight casualties for every one it inflicted on Ukraine. CSIS attributes the shift to Ukraine's intensified use of advanced drones, including some with AI-enabled targeting. IRAN •Qatar reported "positive progress" in indirect talks it mediated between the U.S. and Iran, but it sounds like all they really agreed on was to keep talking about the issues they still disagree on, like nuclear restrictions on Iran. •Talks are now on hold until after Iran concludes funeral ceremonies for former supreme leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed in a U.S. airstrike on February 28. •Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf - Iran's parliament speaker and lead negotiator - called for a large turnout for Khamenei's funeral spectacle "so the world knows that the noble and honorable nation of Iran will not stay silent in the face of oppression and arrogance." He also called on the U.S. and Israel to "to avoid any miscalculations" during the processions. LIBYA •U.S. State Department officials hosted visitors from two of Libya's rival governments last week: Lt. Gen. Saddam Haftar of the eastern Libyan National Army (LNA) met with SecState Rubio, and the Deputy Defense Minister of the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU) met Deputy SecState Landau (along with Pres. Trump's Special Advisor, Massad Boulos, and AFRICOM Deputy Commander Lt. Gen. Brennan). •The Atlantic Council pointed out the optics of giving the leader of an armed faction an audience with the Secretary of State but snubbing the long over stayed UN anointed representative of an "interim government." •Moreover, The Atlantic Council suggests that entertaining the LNA's claims to power "formaliz[es] the families and patronage networks that already dominate" Libyan politics and "turns managed instability into a formal settlement." TRADE •Yesterday was the deadline to renew the U.S.-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trilateral trade agreement, and - as anticipated - the U.S. opted not to lock in another 16-year term. Instead, the three neighbors will review the deal annually, giving them an opportunity to renegotiate key parts of the pact. •Pres. Trump has turned particularly critical of the deal, which he signed during his first term and once called "the fairest, most balanced, and beneficial trade agreement we have ever signed into law." He has since taken a tougher stance on trade and now hopes to squeeze more concessions from Canada and Mexico to close the U.S. trade deficit with its neighbors.
Open source reportOff Leash update 22 May 2026 IRAN •Pres. Trump said he delayed a "very major attack" against Iran that was planned for Tuesday to allow ongoing "serious negotiations" to play out, after the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE asked him for more time to try to secure a deal that addresses Iran's nuclear program. •It's not clear how serious the ongoing negotiations truly are. Most media reports suggest that Iran's latest counterproposal was essentially identical to the previous one, which Trump rejected as "garbage" after reading the first page. Iranian state media, though, said the current proposal had "narrowed the gaps." •SecState Rubio expressed very cautious optimism about "slight progress" towards a ceasefire deal with Iran, but reports that Iran and Oman are in talks about creating a tolling system for the Strait of Hormuz suggest otherwise. Rubio drew a red line with a warning that a tolling system "would make a diplomatic deal unfeasible." ISRAEL •A new Washington Post report found that the U.S. launched more interceptors (300) defending Israel against incoming attacks than Israel launched in its own defense (190). •The U.S. focused its efforts on intercepting high-altitude ballistic missiles coming from Iran, consuming over 200 Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors - or around half its pre-war THAAD arsenal - plus around 100 Standard Missile-3 and Standard Missile-6 interceptors. •Meanwhile, Israel focused on intercepting lower-altitude incoming fire from Iranian proxies - the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon - using nearly 100 Arrow 3 missiles and around 90 David Sling interceptors. •Kelly Greico - an analyst at the Stimson Center - pointed out that interceptors used for Israel's defense reduce the arsenal available for defending against other adversaries: "That bill risks coming due in theaters that have nothing to do with Iran." EBOLA •The World Health Organization (WHO) has now documented 750 suspected cases of Ebola with 177 suspected Ebola deaths in the latest outbreak, which the WHO only confirmed last weekend and has since upgraded to a "very high" risk of spread within DRC. •Public health experts believe the new Ebola outbreak confirmed in DRC and Uganda over the weekend has been raging for weeks, and will be much harder to contain because of the delay in reporting and confirming it. •This outbreak originated in DRC's insurgency-ridden Ituri province, which has been run by a military government under a "state of siege" since 2021. Public services - including health - often take a backseat to security matters, which could explain why health officials didn't sound the alarm when they first started to see patients with possible Ebola symptoms. •Testing shortfalls also delayed Ituri's outbreak response. The region's Ebola test kits only test for the most common Ebola species, Zaire, and returned negative results. It was only when regional health officials sent tissue samples to Kinshasa - apparently weeks after the first symptoms appeared - that the Bundibugyo species of Ebola was identified. CHINA •Pres. Trump told reporters he planned to speak with Taiwan's Pres. Lai Ching-te before deciding to sell arms to Taiwan. It would be the first time since 1979 that a sitting U.S. president or president-elect has spoken with the leader of Taiwan - though there have been official communications at less senior levels since then. •Beijing blamed Taiwan for the "petty action" of enticing Trump to break from precedent and engage at the highest level, but there's a good chance that Trump floated the idea with Xi Jinping when they met last week: Trump first mentioned he might reach out to Lai immediately upon returning from his summit with Xi.
Open source reportOff Leash update 23 Oct RUSSIA •The U.S. imposed new sanctions on Russian oil majors Lukoil and Rosneft yesterday - one week after the UK sanctioned the same companies. •These were the first war-related sanctions the U.S. has imposed on Russia since Pres. Trump returned to office, and Trump's Treasury Secretary - Scott Bessent - directly linked them to Pres. Putin's stonewalling on peace talks: "Given President Putin’s refusal to end this senseless war, Treasury is sanctioning Russia’s two largest oil companies that fund the Kremlin’s war machine." •The new measures are a significant escalation - Pres. Trump called them "tremendous sanctions" - and they appear intended to push Putin to agree to talks. They'll also help nudge India to reduce its Russian oil imports, since Indian refiners buy much of their Russian oil from the newly-sanctioned companies. •The EU also slapped new sanctions on Russia yesterday. The EU's new sanctions package - its 19th over the Ukraine war - targeted Russian liquefied natural gas imports. CARTELS •The U.S. military carried out its eighth and ninth known strikes on alleged drug trafficking vessels in Latin America, killing five people between the two boats. •Unlike the previous seven known strikes, which took place in the Caribbean, these two both targeted boats in the eastern Pacific Ocean. •Following the latest strikes, Pres. Trump warned that his administration is "totally prepared" to expand its anti-cartel operations to strike drug-linked targets on land, which would be a significant escalation. However, he noted that land strikes may require Congress's approval. VENEZUELA •Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro - who, not unreasonably, perceives himself as the target of U.S. anti-cartel operations in Latin America - announced that he has deployed an arsenal of over 5,000 Russian-made Igla-S anti-aircraft missiles "to guarantee peace, stability, and tranquility" in the face of unspoken U.S. threats against him. •Despite his lip service toward peace, it's Maduro - not the U.S. - who is explicitly banging war drums. In addition to deploying anti-aircraft batteries, he has ramped up militia recruitment and launched large, televised military exercises that feed into his regime's warnings that Venezuelans should prepare "for the worst" and ready themselves for war. •Satellite imagery analysts have been unable to spot any of the 5,000+ Igla-S missiles Maduro claims to have deployed, and Maduro has a habit of grossly exaggerating numerical claims like this (to wit, he claimed to have mobilized more people willing to fight for him than voted for him). The true number of Igla-S missiles in Venezuela is far fewer than 5,000 GAZA •The Israeli Knesset passed the first of four votes required to approve a bill allowing Israel to annex the West Bank - despite clear international opprobrium. •Sec Rubio reiterated U.S. opposition to annexation and called the bill "counterproductive" and "threatening to the peace deal." Even Prime Minister Netanyahu's Likud party opposed it and accused its proponents of trying to "damage our relations with the United States." •The measure still faces three more votes before it can be fully approved, and Netanyahu will likely press the Likud members who abstained from the first vote to fall into line and vote against the next ones. DRC •China's Twangiza Mining declared force majeure after a drone strike took out power at its South Kivu gold mine. •Twangiza has had a rough go of it lately: Rwanda-backed M23 rebels occupied its mine in May, and - with the help of Twangiza's own employees - have since looted around $70 million worth of gold and $5 million in equipment and materials from the site. Their loot was secreted over the border to Rwanda for export, with the proceeds used to fund the Rwandan/M23's war. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 16 Sept VENEZUELA •The U.S. Navy targeted another drug boat near Venezuela, killing three people who Pres. Trump said were "positively identified, extraordinarily violent drug trafficking cartels and narcoterrorists" heading to the U.S. with "big bags of cocaine and fentanyl." •Some legal experts have criticized these extra judicial strikes on alleged drug boats as excessive, pointing out that even convicted drug traffickers don't face the death penalty. These accused traffickers are being executed without a trial. [Trump argues that drug cartels should be treated as foreign terrorist organizations and have forfeited their right to stand trial.] •Before the new U.S. strike was announced yesterday, Venezuela's dictator, Nicolas Maduro, called the first U.S. strike of this campaign - which occurred Sep. 2 - a "heinous crime" and "a military attack on civilians who were not at war and were not militarily threatening any country." •Maduro insists that the U.S. is trying to goad Venezuela into a "major war" with the goal of "regime change for oil." Few in the Trump administration would be sad to see Maduro's regime fall, but this naval operation seems like a roundabout way to launch a "major war." ISRAEL AND GAZA •Israel began the "main phase" of its ground offensive on Gaza City this morning, rolling tanks into Gaza's largest population center - which Israel believes to be Hamas's last major stronghold. •U.S. SecState Rubio just paid a visit to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, and offered Netanyahu full U.S. support for his offensive against Hamas. Rubio also conceded that a Gaza peace deal may be out of reach at this stage. •Both Rubio and Netanyahu dodged questions about whether Israel told Pres. Trump it planned to target Hamas leaders in Qatar in advance of the strike. Israeli officials maintain that Trump did indeed have advance warning; the White House claims he only found out after missiles were in the air. Either way, it seems clear Trump didn't have enough advance warning to object to the strike or warn Qatar about it. •On the other side, Arab states met yesterday in Doha to rally behind Qatar in unanimous objection to Israel's strike. •Iran's Pres. Pezeshkian was one of the most vocal attendees denouncing the strike; he complained that "Israel strikes wherever it wants and does whatever it wants," and proposed an "Islamic NATO" to deter future Israeli fire. That's ironic, given that Iran carried out its own ballistic missile strikes on Qatar just three months ago. SYRIA •I missed a key event in my weekly outlook: Syria's new government began a one-week process to choose its new legislature yesterday. •Interim President Ahmed al Sharaa will appoint 70 of its 210 members, while local committees will pick the rest. •As The Economist noted: "Popular democracy this is not, but it is certainly more unpredictable than elections for the old parliament, in which only Bashar al-Assad’s toadies were allowed to run." CHINA •U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent announced an eleventh-hour agreement to allow TikTok to continue operating in the U.S. under U.S.-controlled owners ahead of tomorrow's extended deadline. Presidents Trump and Xi will "complete" the deal Friday. •Separately, China's markets regulator ruled that chipmaking giant Nvidia's 2020 acquisition of Mellanox Technologies violated antitrust laws. That's going to make ongoing U.S.-China trade talks in Madrid awkward. Some observers suggested the ruling may be China's revenge for Pres. Trump's pressure on U.S. allies to raise tariffs on China over China's purchases of Russian oil.
Open source reportOff Leash update 16 July WEST BANK •Senior Christian Palestinian leaders blamed Israeli authorities for allowing and encouraging radical settlers responsible for recent violent attacks against Muslims and Christians in the West Bank, including fires that damaged a Christian church and cemetery in Taybeh last week. •The priests said Israeli police ignored their emergency calls during the attacks, and have done nothing to address "an intensifying trend of systemic and targeted attacks" against local Christians. •Instead, Israeli authorities continue to approve new Jewish settlements. At least 22 new settlements - including some that were completely new and others that already existed as outposts - were built without authorization in recent months, and subsequently legalized by government approval under what the BBC called "the largest expansion in decades." Most experts consider new settlements illegal under international law. CHINA •Chipmaker Nvidia - which recently became the first company to reach a $4 trillion market cap - said the U.S. government had reversed course and approved sales of its H20 artificial intelligence (AI) chips to Chinese companies following Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's meeting with Pres. Trump last week. •Huang probably communicated the steps Nvidia has taken to prevent China from acquiring its most advanced chips, as well as Nvidia's significant investment in the substantially-restricted H20, which was developed specifically to comply with congressional concerns about selling more advanced chips than the H20 to China. •Some China hawks will still worry about Chinese tech companies buying the weaker H20, which is still a great chip for AI - even if it's not the best Nvidia makes. •Meanwhile, China steered in the opposite direction and announced new restrictions on exporting eight electric vehicle (EV) battery technologies that give its cheap EVs a price edge over foreign rivals. That will protect Chinese EV makers' technical edge, but make it harder for them to set up manufacturing plants in the EU or U.S. AFGHANISTAN •The UK belatedly admitted that it accidentally exposed personally identifiable information for 18-19,000 Afghans who worked with its military during the war and then applied for resettlement in the UK in a 2022 data leak. •To prevent the Taliban from carrying out targeted reprisals against countrymen who worked for the other side, the then-Conservative government successfully obtained a High Court "super injunction" as soon as it found out about the leak - which was 18 months after it happened - and then spirited around 4,500 Afghans (~900 applicants and ~3,600 of their family members) away to the UK. •The secret-until-now Afghan Relocation Route program aims to relocate another ~6,900 Afghans - including 600 Afghan soldiers whose data was disclosed in the leak - before it closes, at a total cost of about £850 million ($1.1 billion). IRAN •U.S. SecState Rubio said that he and his British, French, and German counterparts agreed in a phone call yesterday to set a deadline of Aug. 31 for reaching a new nuclear deal with Iran. •If a deal isn't finalized by then, a "snapback" mechanism would automatically reimpose the UN Security Council sanctions that were in place before the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) lifted them in exchange for Iran's agreement to new restrictions on its nuclear programs. •Separately, the U.S. FBI added three Iranian officials - including Iran's current Ambassador to Pakistan - to its "Most Wanted List" for their involvement in the 2007 disappearance and subsequent murder of FBI agent Robert Levinson in Iranian custody. VENEZUELA •Amnesty International published a new report (https://t.co/VgaYavuD3q) accusing Venezuela's leadership of crimes against humanity for using "enforced disappearances as part of a widespread and systematic attack against the civilian population, particularly those they consider dissidents." 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 21 May GAZA •A day after Canada, France, and the UK criticized Israel for its "wholly disproportionate" war in Gaza, the UK paused its ongoing trade talks with Israel and announced new sanctions on Israelis accused of illegally settling in the West Bank and supporting violence against Palestinians. •Israel's Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, balked that its allies' criticisms have handed Hamas "a huge prize" and accused the allies of indirectly encouraging another Oct. 7-style attack. IRAN •CNN reported - citing new U.S. intelligence - that Israel is preparing a possible strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. •Though it's not clear whether Israel has approved a strike or only considered one, the possibility alone spooked oil markets and sent Brent crude futures up 1.3%. [Iran exports over 1.5 million barrels per day, which is the third-most in OPEC but still only ~1.4% of global production.] U.S. •Pres. Trump announced ambitious plans to build a "Golden Dome" missile defense system inspired by Israel's similarly-named "Iron Dome" network, which intercepts (most) incoming rockets and missiles. •The U.S. version would need to protect a far larger area, since the U.S. is 400 times larger than Israel. Estimates for the cost of a U.S. shield range from Trump's figure of $175 billion to a high Congressional Budget Office estimate of $542 billion. SYRIA •U.S. SecState Rubio told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that Pres. Trump decided to lift U.S. sanctions on Syria because it calculated that Syria's interim government was "maybe weeks, not many months, away from potential collapse and a full-scale civil war of epic proportions—basically the country splitting up" and needed urgent sanctions relief for the best chance at avoiding that nightmare scenario. •EU foreign ministers followed the U.S. lead and lifted the remaining economic sanctions on Syria yesterday, but they also introduced targeted sanctions on Syrians accused of abusing human rights and sowing sectarian violence. SUDAN •Sudan's army clashed with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Omdurman. •The army recaptured the nearby capital city of Khartoum from the RSF about two months ago, but it has struggled to regain control of the rest of the capital state amidst intense fighting in and around Omdurman. •The army now claims that the RSF has fled Omdurman, but ongoing gunfire suggests that claim may be premature. AFGHANISTAN •U.S. SecDef Hegseth announced a fresh inquiry into the military's chaotic 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan and appointed his chief spokesman - not a uniformed military officer - to lead the panel. The NYT noted that his unusual appointment "appeared to reflect a skepticism that uniformed military leaders would hold each other accountable." VENEZUELA •Venezuela freed a jailed U.S. Air Force veteran, Joseph St. Clair, in an olive branch that Caracas hopes will inspire Pres. Trump to extend Chevron's license to operate in Venezuela. •St. Clair was arrested in October at the border with Colombia, and the U.S. designated him "wrongfully detained."
Open source reportOff Leash update 16 May UKRAINE AND RUSSIA •After Pres. Putin snubbed him for peace talks in Istanbul, Pres. Zelensky - who had already arrived in Turkey - instead met with Turkey's Pres. Erdogan in Ankara and sent a downsized delegation led by his defense minister to meet Russian envoys in Istanbul. •The downgraded Ukraine-Russia meeting was postponed from yesterday to today, and for a while it was unclear whether it would move forward at all. In the end, the U.S. mediated indirect negotiations this morning, and left Turkey to facilitate direct talks this afternoon. •These will be the first direct negotiations between Ukraine and Russia in three years, which is cause for celebration in itself. But few hold high hopes for any real breakthroughs in these lower-level meetings. •Pres. Trump told reporters that "nothing's going to happen until Putin and I get together," and said he plans to meet with Putin soon to kickstart progress towards a peace deal. SYRIA •SecState Rubio met with his Syrian counterpart, Asaad Hassan al-Shaibani, in Antalya, Turkey yesterday to continue the rapprochement Pres. Trump started by announcing an end to U.S. sanctions on Syria and then meeting Pres. Al Sharaa in person earlier this week. •Syria is cheering Trump's move to lift U.S. sanctions on Syria, but the NYT cautiously pointed out that the process will take time: U.S. presidents can only annul some sanctions unilaterally; others can only be removed after slow-moving Congressional action. •Meanwhile, Syria's Central Bank Governor, Abdulkader Husrieh, penned an op-ed in The Economist pleading for international support for his herculean effort to rebuild Syria's war-torn economy. He specifically implored regional banks and the Syrian diaspora to help recapitalize and modernize Syria's financial sector, and asked the IMF and World Bank for funding as well as capacity-building and policy support. IRAN •Pres. Trump said that the U.S. and Iran are "getting close" to a nuclear deal and noted that "Iran has sort of agreed to the terms" after four rounds of negotiations. •It's not clear what exactly those terms will be. Trump's team has oscillated between insisting on harsh demands that Iran firmly rejects - like barring Iran from enriching uranium altogether, even to low grades for civilian use - and a more pragmatic approach that Tehran is likelier to agree to. •Talks have seemed cordial so far - Iran's foreign ministry described them as "difficult but useful" - but Trump ominously warned of "violence like people have never seen before" if negotiations fail (though he added "I don't want to do that step"). INDIA AND PAKISTAN •India's defense minister, Rajnath Singh, pointed to his country's recent beef with Pakistan as proof that Pakistan is a "rogue and irresponsible nation" whose nuclear weapons must be "brought under the surveillance" of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). •Pakistan's Foreign Ministry then shot back that the IAEA should instead investigate "the repeated theft and illicit trafficking incidents involving nuclear and radioactive material in India." VENEZUELA AND GUYANA •Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado called on supporters to boycott the May 25 gubernatorial elections. •Machado told AFP that the regional vote would be a "huge farce that the regime wants to stage to bury its defeat of July 28" - when the opposition participated in nationwide elections, only for Pres. Maduro to steal the vote and launch a violent crackdown afterwards. •Machado leads Venezuela's largest opposition movement, and many opposition supporters will likely heed her call to boycott the election, but some smaller opposition factions - including one led by former presidential candidate Henrique Capriles - plan to participate in the poll. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 March 2025 COMING UP THIS WEEK •U.S. and Ukrainian officials will meet in Saudi Arabia starting tomorrow. Pres. Zelensky is in Saudi and said he was "fully committed" to negotiating an end to the war, but he won't participate in the U.S.-Ukrainian meetings; instead, he'll meet Saudi's Crown Prince MBS for economic talks while his delegates meet U.S. SecState Rubio et al. •Greenland goes to the polls tomorrow. While the question of independence from Denmark isn't directly on the ballot, analysts will be watching results to see if Greenlanders veer towards candidates in favor of greater autonomy for their island. •China, Iran, and Russia will hold joint naval exercises in the northern Indian Ocean this week. Several countries - including Pakistan, Qatar, South Africa, and the UAE - will send observers. COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,706/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,450/ton •Cobalt: $26,960/ton •Copper: $9,614/ton •Gold: $2,901/toz •Lead: $2,019/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.60/MMbtu - a three-year high due to supply constraints and cold weather •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $67.06/barrel •Zinc: $2,887/ton GAZA •France, Germany, Italy, and the UK said they would support Egypt's plan for post-war Gaza; however, that plan still faces significant hurdles: the U.S. and Israel have rejected it - Israel more vehemently than the U.S. - and so far no donors have stepped up to commit the first of the $53 billion needed to fund the plan. •Optimists are hopeful for a second-phase ceasefire agreement this week. Israel sent a delegation to Qatar today "in an effort to advance the negotiations," and Hamas said it has received "positive signals" from the Egyptian and Qatari mediators it's been working with. SYRIA •An independent monitor estimated that over 1,000 people - mostly civilians - have been killed in the past week's clashes between the new government's forces and loyalists to the deposed Assad regime in Latakia. •The Assad loyalists clashing with government troops don't appear to be centrally organized or led; rather, the Institute for the Study of War suggests there are multiple small groups of loyalists each independently declaring a "united" front against the new government. •Interim president Ahmed al Sharaa appealed for calm and asked Syrians "to be reassured because the country has the fundamentals for survival." IRAN •Pres. Trump said he wrote a letter to Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, proposing a revival of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran. •Khamenei seemed cold on the idea: he complained about "bullying governments" using talks "as a pathway to have new demands." •Pres. Pezeshkian, meanwhile, seemed more open to talks - but noted that Khamenei calls the shots: "My position has been and will remain that I believe in negotiations, but now we have to follow the parameters set by the supreme leader." UKRAINE •A group of civilian and military analysts unveiled a framework for a ceasefire in Ukraine that came out of their spring 2022 meeting in Geneva. Their proposal calls for a six-mile buffer zone along the 700-mile front lines, which would be patrolled by peacekeepers, including foreign troops (the UK and France have offered to send peacekeepers, but Russia rejected the idea). •Meanwhile, Russia is eroding Ukraine's gains in Kursk by pushing Ukrainian front lines back and cutting off supply chains to the ~10,000 Ukrainian troops in Kursk. Ukraine had hoped to use the parts of Kursk it recaptured last year as bargaining chips in a negotiated peace; Russia's recent counter-advance will leave Ukraine with less to offer in a truce. •Separately, Pres. Trump said he was "just about" ready to start sharing intelligence with Ukraine again - now that Ukraine is participating obligingly in peace talks in Saudi. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 March 2025 COMING UP THIS WEEK •U.S. and Ukrainian officials will meet in Saudi Arabia starting tomorrow. Pres. Zelensky is in Saudi and said he was "fully committed" to negotiating an end to the war, but he won't participate in the U.S.-Ukrainian meetings; instead, he'll meet Saudi's Crown Prince MBS for economic talks while his delegates meet U.S. SecState Rubio et al. •Greenland goes to the polls tomorrow. While the question of independence from Denmark isn't directly on the ballot, analysts will be watching results to see if Greenlanders veer towards candidates in favor of greater autonomy for their island. •China, Iran, and Russia will hold joint naval exercises in the northern Indian Ocean this week. Several countries - including Pakistan, Qatar, South Africa, and the UAE - will send observers. COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,706/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,450/ton •Cobalt: $26,960/ton •Copper: $9,614/ton •Gold: $2,901/toz •Lead: $2,019/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.60/MMbtu - a three-year high due to supply constraints and cold weather •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $67.06/barrel •Zinc: $2,887/ton GAZA •France, Germany, Italy, and the UK said they would support Egypt's plan for post-war Gaza; however, that plan still faces significant hurdles: the U.S. and Israel have rejected it - Israel more vehemently than the U.S. - and so far no donors have stepped up to commit the first of the $53 billion needed to fund the plan. •Optimists are hopeful for a second-phase ceasefire agreement this week. Israel sent a delegation to Qatar today "in an effort to advance the negotiations," and Hamas said it has received "positive signals" from the Egyptian and Qatari mediators it's been working with. SYRIA •An independent monitor estimated that over 1,000 people - mostly civilians - have been killed in the past week's clashes between the new government's forces and loyalists to the deposed Assad regime in Latakia. •The Assad loyalists clashing with government troops don't appear to be centrally organized or led; rather, the Institute for the Study of War suggests there are multiple small groups of loyalists each independently declaring a "united" front against the new government. •Interim president Ahmed al Sharaa appealed for calm and asked Syrians "to be reassured because the country has the fundamentals for survival." IRAN •Pres. Trump said he wrote a letter to Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, proposing a revival of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran. •Khamenei seemed cold on the idea: he complained about "bullying governments" using talks "as a pathway to have new demands." •Pres. Pezeshkian, meanwhile, seemed more open to talks - but noted that Khamenei calls the shots: "My position has been and will remain that I believe in negotiations, but now we have to follow the parameters set by the supreme leader." UKRAINE •A group of civilian and military analysts unveiled a framework for a ceasefire in Ukraine that came out of their spring 2022 meeting in Geneva. Their proposal calls for a six-mile buffer zone along the 700-mile front lines, which would be patrolled by peacekeepers, including foreign troops (the UK and France have offered to send peacekeepers, but Russia rejected the idea). •Meanwhile, Russia is eroding Ukraine's gains in Kursk by pushing Ukrainian front lines back and cutting off supply chains to the ~10,000 Ukrainian troops in Kursk. Ukraine had hoped to use the parts of Kursk it recaptured last year as bargaining chips in a negotiated peace; Russia's recent counter-advance will leave Ukraine with less to offer in a truce. •Separately, Pres. Trump said he was "just about" ready to start sharing intelligence with Ukraine again - now that Ukraine is participating obligingly in peace talks in Saudi.
Open source reportOff Leash update 19 Feb DRC •The situation in eastern DRC is unraveling quickly, with both Rwanda and Uganda now actively fighting to tear off pieces of DRC in a manner akin to how the Soviets and Nazis raced to rip Poland into pieces. •After capturing Bukavu over the weekend, Rwandan troops are continuing south and captured Kamanyo yesterday. Their next target could be the city of Uvira. •Meanwhile, Ugandan troops invaded Bunia in the north and called on Congolese forces there to surrender their weapons within 24 hours. The Ugandans appear to be heading for Butembo, and are attacking all Congolese army positions along the way. Ukraine •Senior U.S. and Russian delegations - led by SecState Rubio and Foreign Minister Lavrov - met in Saudi Arabia yesterday for the most significant direct talks between their countries in years. •The main purpose of their summit was to align on a path towards ending the war in Ukraine, but they also agreed to explore what Rubio called "the incredible opportunities that exist to partner with the Russians, geopolitically...and economically" - though Rubio also noted that U.S. sanctions on Russia will remain in place, for now. •European leaders who were left out of the summit - Ukraine's Pres. Zelensky most of all - expressed disappointment that the U.S. would so easily embrace a geopolitical rival after years of leading multilateral efforts to isolate it, and complained that Ukraine must be included in meetings about its future. •Zelensky's complaints about being left out drew a sharp rebuke from Pres. Trump, who appeared to blame Ukraine for being invaded and failing to launch peace talks sooner: "You should have never started it. You could have made a deal." [Trump also taunted Zelensky's low approval ratings, though he cited an inaccurate figure of 4%. Zelensky won 57% approval in the latest survey reported.] •Former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson observed that "Trump’s statements are not intended to be historically accurate but to shock Europeans into action." It seems to be working: EU leaders are organizing another, more inclusive emergency summit on Ukraine tomorrow. Gaza •Hamas reportedly extended an unsolicited offer - apparently at Egypt's behest - to kick off the second phase of ceasefire negotiations with Israel. Under its offer, Hamas would release all of its remaining hostages and hand over control of Gaza to the Palestinian Authority (which governs the West Bank), in exchange for a permanent ceasefire and full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. •Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu bluntly shut the idea down in a post on X: "Not going to happen." Netanyahu is committed to disarming Hamas and evicting it from Gaza altogether - conditions which Hamas has rejected and called "ridiculous psychological warfare." •Meanwhile, Egypt's Pres. Al Sisi will present his broader vision for Gaza in Riyadh tomorrow. Al Sisi's plan is said to call on Arab states to contribute up to to $20 billion to rebuild Gaza. Egyptian and Jordanian diplomats said (off the record) that Pres. Trump has agreed to the Egyptian plan, which was concocted as an alternative to Trump's initial proposal that controversially called for Gazans to be resettled elsewhere. Sudan •Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) said that it, too, plans to form a new government for Sudan. The RSF's government will rival the new government the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) recently said it would form as soon as it retakes Khartoum from the RSF. •The RSF and SAF have been fighting each other in a grueling civil war for nearly two years, so it was pretty clear that their former alliance was over. This week's news that they both intend to establish rival governments merely formalizes their split. •Side note: The fact that the RSF made its announcement from a government convention center in Nairobi, Kenya seems to corroborate the SAF's claims that Kenya is supporting the RSF. Syria 1/2
Open source report