Off Leash Intel · loading
30 direct mentions across 30 briefings, with 37 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
The Houthis struck two Saudi tankers while allowing two Chinese-owned tankers carrying Saudi oil to transit Bab al-Mandeb. Enforcement of the announced blockade may be selective but uncertainty remains over how additional Chinese tankers loading at Yanbu will be treated.
Unverified development · updated through
The Houthis struck two Saudi tankers while allowing two Chinese-owned tankers carrying Saudi oil to transit Bab al-Mandeb. Enforcement of the announced blockade may be selective but uncertainty remains over how additional Chinese tankers loading at Yanbu will be treated.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Houthis dossier
28 mapped developments across 4 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Red Sea, approximately 600 km off Yemen
The Houthis conducted a drone strike against the Portuguese-flagged container ship MSC Orion about 375 miles off Yemen. Minor damage; the vessel continued its voyage.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 24 July 2026 SAUDI ARABIA •The U.S.-Saudi nuclear deal announced Wednesday may fall apart before its Congressional critics even have a chance to oppose it. Less than 24 hours after it was signed, Pres. Trump added a new condition requiring Saudi to join the Abraham Accords - and thus normalize relations with Israel - in exchange for U.S. permission and help building a civilian nuclear program. •Diplomatic recognition of Israel has been a non-starter for Saudi's Crown Prince MBS since Israel began its war in Gaza, although MBS was cautiously open to the idea pre-2022. If Trump doesn't walk back his new condition, MBS will certainly back out of this week's deal, which was over 20 years in the making. YEMEN •Yemen's Houthis seem to be selectively enforcing the blockade they announced on Saudi Arabian exports earlier this week. •They struck two Saudi tankers yesterday, but allowed two Chinese-owned tankers carrying Saudi oil to pass through Bab al Mandeb - though those were loaded at Saudi's Yanbu port before the Houthis announced their blockade. Several more Chinese tankers are now loading Saudi oil at Yanbu, and analysts are watching to see how the Houthis treat them. •On the one hand, China is the Houthis' second-greatest benefactor (after Iran) and supplies the Houthis with key military kit like drone components, so the Houthis will hesitate to bite the hand that feeds them. That's what happened in 2023-5, when the Houthis attacked U.S.- and Israel-linked vessels in solidarity with Hamas, but spared Chinese ships. But on the other hand, the Houthis are - as one analyst pointed out - "quite mercurial and there is no complete clarity on what the blockade means." IRAN •Pres. Trump antagonized Iran by vowing to use frozen Iranian funds - which Tehran has desperately sought to unfreeze to pay for post-war reconstruction - to pay for damage Iran's strikes in the Strait of Hormuz cause to ships and cargo. •Trump called it "the fair and equitable thing to do," while Iran's Foreign Minister said it sent an "incendiary precedent" and issued a rival threat: "Those who celebrate or profit from such funds should remember: once governments normalise confiscation, no one’s assets are safe. Ensuing chaos will not be pretty or peaceful." •Separately, Iraq's Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi delivered a new U.S. ceasefire proposal to Iran's leaders, who rejected it immediately. It was probably not a serious proposal, anyway: it's hard to imagine Pres. Trump would extend a real olive branch after bombing Iran nightly for nearly a fortnight and weighing whether to launch the "largest ever" U.S. military strike on Iran. •It was reportedly another temporary ceasefire that ignored the most prescient question of who keeps control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Open source reportOff Leash update 23 July 2026 UKRAINE •Ukraine struck two more warehouses belonging to Russia's largest retailer, Wildberries, in Krasnodar and Stavropol, destroying an estimated $1 billion in goods. •Pres. Zelensky has justified the strikes with (probably correct) claims that Wildberries sells goods like commercial drones that Russian soldiers are weaponizing against Ukraine, but by targeting a storefront that sells to almost half of Russia's population and sustains at least half a million small businesses that sell on the platform, Zelensky is also achieving his goal of "bringing the war back home" to Russia. •Many small-scale sellers reported losing their entire inventory, leaving them without a way to repay the high-interest rate loans they used to buy the destroyed stock. •Wildberries - likely at the Kremlin's instruction - said it would compensate some of its "most vulnerable" sellers for their losses. It will also need to invest in rebuilding its warehouses with better defenses against future attacks, now that Ukraine has seen how effective its strikes have been. SAUDI ARABIA •As anticipated, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia signed a deal yesterday allowing Saudi to build a civilian nuclear program using American technology and know-how. •Congress must review it before it goes into effect, and it has some critics in Congress who worry about nuclear proliferation. •The NYT astutely observed that the Saudi deal was missing two of the key safeguards against nuclear proliferation that bound a similar deal the U.S. struck with the UAE in 2009: an explicit commitment not to make nuclear fuel, and permission for IAEA inspectors to carry out inspections on short notice and with a wide remit. •The Saudis reportedly refused both provisions. Analysts say the possibility that Saudi could make its own nuclear fuel raises the risk that it could divert its nuclear resources towards a weapons program. [Crown Prince MBS has already said he would build nuclear weapons if Iran does.] •Some also suggested that Iran might see the lax deal the U.S. allowed Saudi to get away with and raise its expectations for what a possible U.S.-Iran nuclear deal could permit. YEMEN •Yemen's Houthi rebels struck two Saudi Arabian oil tankers in the Red Sea yesterday, making good on their threats to enforce a "maritime embargo" on Saudi Arabia. •They also claimed to have forced "10 ships to retreat and return," and shipping data confirmed that at least six vessels reversed course in the Red Sea since the Houthis announced their blockade on Monday. •U.S. SecState Rubio warned the Houthis against getting involved in their benefactor's war, but they're unlikely to heed his warning. VENEZUELA •The Financial Times estimated that the U.S. has received $13 billion in revenue from its sales of Venezuelan oil this year, but called out that only $3 billion of the proceeds has been remitted to Caracas in a transparent way. The Trump administration's critics are calling on the White House to explain where the other $10 billion is. AI •OpenAI divulged that two of its frontier models went rogue during testing and successfully hacked a digital library belonging to another company - Hugging Face - without being prompted to do so. •The incident served to validate concerns that the latest AI models are advancing beyond a level that humans can comprehend well enough to control, and could expose new cybersecurity vulnerabilities faster than humans can patch them.
Open source reportOff Leash update 21 July 2026 NICARAGUA •Nicaragua's leftist president, Daniel Ortega, announced plans to officially abolish elections rather than bother to hold another sham poll - like the one he oversaw in 2021 - when elections are due next year. •Instead, Ortega will tighten his authoritarian grip on Nicaraguan politics and further consolidate power for himself and his co-president, Rosario Murillo - a poet whose main qualification to hold office is being married to Ortega. •The Trump administration has mostly turned a blind eye to Ortega's increasingly blatant power grabs, despite Ortega's leftist politics and friendliness with China. Abolishing elections could give the U.S. a reason to treat Nicaragua to the same sort of pressure campaigns it's mounting on Cuba and Venezuela. Once again proof that you can vote in socialism but have to shoot your way out. CHINA •Chinese and Filipino sailors fought a brief sea battle worthy of a Viking war painting near the disputed Second Thomas Shoal yesterday, striking each other with oars and batons and leaving one Filipino sailor with a head injury. •As usual, both sides claimed the other provoked the skirmish and summoned the other side's ambassador for a dressing down. •The timing is awkward this time, since the incident will certainly become a hot topic at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit that started today. China, the Philippines, the U.S., and Australia are all sending their top diplomats, and the U.S. and Australia have already issued statements supporting the Philippines' side and condemning China as the aggressor. YEMEN •Encouraged by Iran, Yemen's Houthi rebels announced a blockade on Saudi Arabian ships - or ships carrying Saudi exports - transiting through Bab al Mandeb. •The Houthis are inaccurately portraying their blockade as a meaningful one that will choke off Saudi's last remaining export route while Iran blocks Saudi exports through the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts suggest that depiction is intended for the Houthi's domestic audience, who don't know that Saudi can evade the blockade by exporting from its western ports north through the Suez Canal. UK •Andy Burnham - the UK's new prime minister, as of yesterday - promptly named his cabinet. •Burnham surprised analysts by choosing John Healey - who resigned as Sir Kier Starmer's defence minister last month after complaining about insufficient defence spending - as the new chancellor of the exchequer. Healey will now be responsible for tough spending choices like the defence cuts he railed against. INDIA •Youth-led protests rocked Delhi yesterday, and police responded forcefully, injuring at least 180 demonstrators. The movement - playfully dubbed the Cockroach Janta Party - demands education reform, including the resignation of India's education minister following exam scandals that happened on his watch. TRADE •Pres. Trump threatened 50% tariffs on symbolic Canadian imports like hockey equipment and down jackets, but gave Canada 30 days to right the perceived wrongs that sparked Trump's ire. In particular, Trump wants the eight of 10 Canadian provinces that banned imports of U.S.-made alcohol last year to repeal their bans. •Analysts suggest Trump's new tariff threat is a tactic to force Canada into making concessions early so it has less room to negotiate when U.S.-Canada-Mexico trade talks resume.
Open source reportOff Leash update 20 July 2026 COMING UP THIS WEEK •Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burhnam is set to become the next British prime minister today. •Tomorrow, Lebanon's Pres. Aoun will become the first Lebanese president in almost 20 years to visit the White House. •The Commonwealth Games start Thursday in Glasgow, and Comic-Con runs from Thursday through Sunday in San Diego, California. •On Friday, Pres. Trump will attend a rescheduled White House Press correspondents' dinner. Security will be tight to prevent another incident like the shooting that derailed the first dinner. •The 113th Tour de France ends Sunday on the Champs-Élysées in Paris. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,151/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $35,176/ton •Bitcoin: $64,220 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $13,526/ton •Ethereum: $1,863 •Gold: $4,021/toz •Lead: $1,883/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.86/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $82.74/barrel •Zinc: $3,526/ton IRAN •Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) said that two oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz via the southern route Iran has called "unsafe" and warned ships not to use were - passive voice intentional - "exploded and were forced to cease movement." The IRGC didn't explicitly say it fired on the imperiled tankers, but nobody else is striking ships along the southern route that the U.S. Navy is trying to secure. •At least three U.S. soldiers were killed in combat over the weekend: two died in an Iranian missile attack on a U.S. base in Jordan that left another serviceman missing, and one died during a botched operation to defuse a downed Iranian drone in northern Iraq. •U.S. SecState Rubio says the U.S. is still open to negotiating with Iran, and there are limited signs of ongoing diplomacy. But discreet peace talks are getting much less airtime than the nine straight nights of airstrikes the U.S. has carried out on Iranian infrastructure (and Iran's retaliatory attacks on regional allies of the U.S.). •The NYT, citing analysts, warned that infrastructure strikes and U.S. casualties represent an escalation that could prove hard to walk back from. YEMEN •Indeed, Iran reportedly called on its proxy in Yemen, the Houthis, to help ignite a regional conflict by closing the Bab al Mandeb maritime chokepoint if the U.S. strikes Iran's power grid. •The Houthis recently reopened a long-frozen conflict with Saudi Arabia, and seem ready to join their sponsor's side in a regional war. LEBANON •Lebanon's Pres. Aoun will use his meeting with Pres. Trump tomorrow to seek Trump's help pressuring Israel to make good on its commitment to withdraw from two "pilot zones" in southern Lebanon so the Lebanese Army can assume control of them. •That's the first step in a U.S.-backed agreement signed June 26 to end fighting between Israel and Hezbollah. Aoun will then want further U.S. (and international - but not Israeli) help to disarm Hezbollah. UKRAINE •Ukraine struck two warehouses belonging to the Russian online retailer Wildberries. Pres. Zelensky said the warehouses were being used to "supply sanctioned components for drone production and navigation equipment." •They're also symbolic targets for Ukraine's efforts to disrupt daily Russian life and bring the war home to Russians, whose president has sought to isolate them from the effects of the conflict. •Russia responded with one of the largest bombardments yet on Kyiv. The Russian barrage is likely to amplify Zelensky's calls for more Patriot missiles to defend against future such strikes. UK •Andy Burnham - who will become the UK's next prime minister today . •He faces tough challenges governing at the national level. He'll want to maintain good ties with the U.S. and Pres. Trump, make plans to revive Britain's sluggish economy, and ease a fractious debate about immigration.
Open source reportOff Leash update 15 July 2026 IRAN •On Pres. Trump's orders, the U.S. military opened a new round of hostilities with Iran focused on breaking Iran's chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. airstrikes targeted dozens of sites linked to Iran's coastal defenses and attack boats, and U.S. warships resumed a military blockade of Iran's ports. •Trump also revived his use of ultimatums to threaten Iran back to the negotiating table, warning that he would order the destruction of Iran's power plants and bridges if its leaders don't "get to the table and negotiate." •On the other hand, Trump walked back his announced plan to levy fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, saying that Gulf countries - who would've borne the brunt of a fee - have instead committed to investing in the U.S. •Oil suppliers seem to think the conflict will drag on. They're doubling down on efforts to develop alternative routes to market that bypass the Strait. Dubai-based port operator DP World, for one, announced plans to build a new port and container terminal on UAE's east coast, outside of the Strait. •These alternate routes could come into use fairly quickly. Goldman Sachs estimates that current and planned pipelines and export infrastructure will be able to carry over 45% of pre-war Gulf oil export volumes by the end of 2027, and over 60% by the end of 2028. UK •A new UK inquiry found Iran indirectly responsible for a spate of arson and vandalism attacks blamed on one of its proxies, the Islamic Movement of the Companions of the Right (ICMR), and declared Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) to be a national security threat. •Parliament will vote on whether to ban the ICMR and IRGC later this week. If MPs approve bans, it would raise the stakes for members of the ICMR doing Iran's bidding, since committing sabotage on behalf of a banned group is punishable by up to life imprisonment - as opposed to far more lenient sentences for those convicted of the same crimes without a link to a banned group. YEMEN •Yemen's Houthis readily heeded Saudi Arabia's call to arms and declared the "de-escalation phase" of their war over after four years of fragile peace. •Analysts worry about the renewed conflict in southern Arabia spilling over into a broader regional conflict, with the Houthis on Iran's side targeting Gulf countries from the south while Iran lashes out at them from the east. [That was probably Saudi Crown Prince MBS's concern as well when he asked Pres. Trump to condone the strikes that reignited war with the Houthis.] CHINA •New data showed that China's economy grew just 4.3% between Q2 2025 and Q2 2026. It was China's slowest GDP growth rate since 2022 and fell short of the government's target of 4.5-5.0%. The war in Iran and weak domestic demand and investment held growth back, while a rise in tech exports dampened the drag on growth.
Open source reportOff Leash update 9 June 2026 COMING UP THIS WEEK •Apple's annual Worldwide Developers' Conference (WWDC) kicked off yesterday. This is Tim Cook's last WWDC as CEO of Apple; investors will want to hear what the company is doing to catch up to its tech rivals' advancements in artificial intelligence. •Yesterday was World Oceans Day, which Mercator Ocean International commemorated by releasing its annual Starfish Barometer report on ocean health. This year's report found that sea levels rose by an average of 4.2 mm per year between 2012 and 2025 - almost double the rate of the previous decade. •China's Pres. Xi wraps up a two-day visit to North Korea today. The fact that Xi is visiting Kim Jong Un - and not the other way around - exemplifies the geopolitical clout Kim has achieved by forging stronger ties with Russia over Ukraine: Kim is no longer solely dependent on China, and Xi needs to treat Kim more like an equal than he did before Kim cozied up to Pres. Putin. •The FIFA Men's World Cup kicks off Thursday with a match between South Africa and co-host Mexico. Games will be played at various locations in Canada, Mexico, and the U.S., culminating in a July 19 final expected to take place at MetLife Stadium outside of New York City. •The NBA finals are also taking place this week. After last night's game, the New York Knicks are leading the San Antonio Spurs 2-1. The next games will be played tomorrow and Saturday, with additional games slated for next Tuesday and Friday if neither team has reached the four wins they need to take the series. It's the first time in 27 years that the Knicks have reached the finals. •The 94th edition of the 24 Hours of Le Mans endurance race takes place Saturday to Sunday in northwest France. •Pres. Trump turns 80 on Sunday and will (unofficially) mark the milestone by hosting UFC Freedom 250 on the White House lawn. The event will feature two co-main events: a lightweight title fight between Ilia Topuria and Justin Gaethje, and a heavyweight bout between Alex Pereira and Ciryl Gane for the interim title. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,604/ton •Antimony (global avg.): $35,538/ton •Bitcoin: $62,685 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $13,616/ton •Ethereum: $1,670 •Gold: $4,332/toz •Lead: $1,990/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.18/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $88.97/barrel •Zinc: $3,537/ton IRAN AND ISRAEL •Israel and Iran returned to war for about 15 hours, until Pres. Trump pulled Prime Minister Netanyahu back from the brink with another tense phone call. •Trump reportedly told Netanyahu that U.S. negotiators were within days of a breakthrough on nuclear talks with Iran, and would lose the opportunity to seal a lasting deal if Israel and Iran continued to exchange fire. •Iran readily agreed to pause strikes, too, but warned that it was ready to resume if Israel broke its side of the detente. (Except, apparently, in southern Lebanon, where Israeli strikes continued.) •The latest volley apparently started after Israel targeted Hezbollah sites in Lebanon. That Iran retaliated for strikes against its foreign proxies by firing directly at Israel - and ordering another of its proxies, the Houthis in Yemen, to join the fray and fire at Israel, too - shows how Iran sees its proxies' wars against Israel as an integrated part of its broader conflict. The extra dimensions that adds to truce talks will make it harder to reach a durable deal. ARMENIA •Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's pro-Western Civil Contract Party won re-election on Sunday...unless you ask the Russian media, who were instructed to portray the result - in which Civil Contract won 49.8% of the vote - as a loss for Pashinyan and highlight alleged voting irregularities. •Moscow resents Pashinyan's efforts to shift Armenia closer to Europe, and meddled in the election by banning key Armenian import categories to demonstrate the economic perks Armenia would lose if it swapped Russian suppliers for European ones. Pres. Putin pointedly warned Armenians last month that "the crisis in Ukraine began with efforts to move toward EU accession." CHINA •The U.S. Department of War added dozens of Chinese companies - including carmaker BYD and internet giants Baidu and Alibaba - to its list of firms linked to the Chinese military. The Pentagon considers listed firms to be national security threats and bars the U.S. military from doing business with them. •The companies emphatically denied having any military links, and the Chinese government criticized their blacklisting, calling it a pretext to protect American companies from strong Chinese rivals.
Open source reportOff Leash update 22 May 2026 IRAN •Pres. Trump said he delayed a "very major attack" against Iran that was planned for Tuesday to allow ongoing "serious negotiations" to play out, after the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE asked him for more time to try to secure a deal that addresses Iran's nuclear program. •It's not clear how serious the ongoing negotiations truly are. Most media reports suggest that Iran's latest counterproposal was essentially identical to the previous one, which Trump rejected as "garbage" after reading the first page. Iranian state media, though, said the current proposal had "narrowed the gaps." •SecState Rubio expressed very cautious optimism about "slight progress" towards a ceasefire deal with Iran, but reports that Iran and Oman are in talks about creating a tolling system for the Strait of Hormuz suggest otherwise. Rubio drew a red line with a warning that a tolling system "would make a diplomatic deal unfeasible." ISRAEL •A new Washington Post report found that the U.S. launched more interceptors (300) defending Israel against incoming attacks than Israel launched in its own defense (190). •The U.S. focused its efforts on intercepting high-altitude ballistic missiles coming from Iran, consuming over 200 Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors - or around half its pre-war THAAD arsenal - plus around 100 Standard Missile-3 and Standard Missile-6 interceptors. •Meanwhile, Israel focused on intercepting lower-altitude incoming fire from Iranian proxies - the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon - using nearly 100 Arrow 3 missiles and around 90 David Sling interceptors. •Kelly Greico - an analyst at the Stimson Center - pointed out that interceptors used for Israel's defense reduce the arsenal available for defending against other adversaries: "That bill risks coming due in theaters that have nothing to do with Iran." EBOLA •The World Health Organization (WHO) has now documented 750 suspected cases of Ebola with 177 suspected Ebola deaths in the latest outbreak, which the WHO only confirmed last weekend and has since upgraded to a "very high" risk of spread within DRC. •Public health experts believe the new Ebola outbreak confirmed in DRC and Uganda over the weekend has been raging for weeks, and will be much harder to contain because of the delay in reporting and confirming it. •This outbreak originated in DRC's insurgency-ridden Ituri province, which has been run by a military government under a "state of siege" since 2021. Public services - including health - often take a backseat to security matters, which could explain why health officials didn't sound the alarm when they first started to see patients with possible Ebola symptoms. •Testing shortfalls also delayed Ituri's outbreak response. The region's Ebola test kits only test for the most common Ebola species, Zaire, and returned negative results. It was only when regional health officials sent tissue samples to Kinshasa - apparently weeks after the first symptoms appeared - that the Bundibugyo species of Ebola was identified. CHINA •Pres. Trump told reporters he planned to speak with Taiwan's Pres. Lai Ching-te before deciding to sell arms to Taiwan. It would be the first time since 1979 that a sitting U.S. president or president-elect has spoken with the leader of Taiwan - though there have been official communications at less senior levels since then. •Beijing blamed Taiwan for the "petty action" of enticing Trump to break from precedent and engage at the highest level, but there's a good chance that Trump floated the idea with Xi Jinping when they met last week: Trump first mentioned he might reach out to Lai immediately upon returning from his summit with Xi.
Open source reportOff Leash update 30March COMING UP THIS WEEK •Wednesday is April Fools' Day and - perhaps relatedly - Edible Book Day. •It's also the 50th anniversary of Steve Jobs and Stephen Wozniak founding Apple Computers. •This is Holy Week for western Christians. Friday is Good Friday (U.S. and EU markets are closed), followed by Easter on Sunday. EU markets are also closed for Easter Monday next week. •OPEC+ producers - Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Oman - meet Sunday to set output targets for May. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,296/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $67,471 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $12,195/ton •Ethereum: $2,065 •Gold: $4,542/toz •Lead: $1,897/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.94/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $100.92/barrel •Zinc: $3,115/ton IRAN •Pres. Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, said he was "hopeful" that negotiations will start this week, and Pakistan said it's preparing to host peace talks. •But while Trump hints at ongoing contact with Iran's "much more reasonable" new leaders, he's simultaneously fueling rumors that he'll abandon talks and "take the oil in Iran" - perhaps by seizing its Kharg Island fuel hub. •Having twice been bombed between rounds of ongoing negotiations, Iran is wary. Its parliament speaker accused the U.S. of "secretly planning a ground invasion" and warned that U.S. troops on the ground inside Iran will be "set on fire." •Israel struck two Iranian nuclear facilities that Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, insists were civilian infrastructure. Araghchi threatened to "exact a heavy price" in retaliation, and Iran later struck a chemical plant in southern Israel. •The war is unpopular in the U.S., where an Economist / YouGov poll found only 36% of respondents approve of how Trump is pursuing it. YEMEN •Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels joined their benefactor's war by resuming missile launches towards Israel for the first time since the U.S. and Israel began striking Iran a month ago. •Israel easily intercepted the incoming Houthi missile, and analysts seem unconcerned that the Houthi's entry into the war will shift its course. That's partly because the Houthis' firepower comes from Iran, and Iran can't afford to divert part of its depleting arsenal just so the Houthis can fire at the same enemy from a different angle. •The Houthis also seem to be refraining from targeting Red Sea shipping, as they did from 2023 until a ceasefire in May 2025. One Chatham House analyst surmised that they hope that Saudi Arabia will reward their restraint with cash. But others suggest the rebels are growing frustrated that Saudi aid hasn't materialized and may abandon their restraint. DRC •Ex-Congolese President Joseph Kabila gave his first major interview in eight years to the NYT. •In the extensive conversation, he hinted that he helped rig the 2018 election to fulfil a power-sharing "agreement" he had struck with his successor, Felix Tshisekedi, with whom he has since spectacularly fallen out. •Kabila now accuses Tshisekedi of trying to assassinate him in a drone strike on Goma earlier this month and slammed "Tshisekedi’s tyranny," warning of the "Sudanization" of DRC - i.e., of political dispute that descends into open conflict. •For its part, Tshisekedi's government accuses Kabila of leading the Rwanda-backed M23 rebellion in the east and has convicted him of treason and sentenced him to death in a trial that Human Rights Watch called "blatantly unfair." •Kabila is now back in DRC, in M23-controlled Goma. When the NYT asked him if he wanted to rule DRC again, he ominously demurred.
Open source reportThe Houthis warned that any Israeli presence in Somaliland would be treated as a military target. The speaker separately speculates that Israel may be considering Somaliland as a base for operations against Houthi positions.
Open source reportOff Leash update 24 DEC UKRAINE AND RUSSIA •Pres. Zelensky shared the revised peace proposal that Ukraine and the U.S. have been drawing up. •The new, 20-point plan - which Zelensky called "quite solid" - calls on Russia to withdraw from some of the territory it has occupied in eastern Ukraine to create a demilitarized buffer zone. Zelensky said Ukraine would consider pulling its troops back, too. •U.S. officials will present the new plan to Russia today, but it's bound to fall on deaf ears: Pres. Putin ignored earlier proposals that were far more slanted in his favor, so he's highly unlikely to entertain this fairer one. •Separately, a car bomb killed three people near the site in Moscow where Gen. Fanil Sarvarov was assassinated earlier this week. Russia suspects Ukraine in both attacks. VENEZUELA •U.S. forces struck a 29th alleged drug boat as part of Operation Southern Spear - this time in the eastern Pacific - killing one. IRAN •During a UN Security Council session yesterday, both Iran and the U.S. insisted they're open to reviving nuclear talks, which ended when the U.S. waged a 12-day air war on Iran's nuclear sites in June. •However, the two sides can't even agree on terms for resuming talks: the U.S. demands that Iran stop all uranium enrichment before any negotiations take place, but Iran's UN Ambassador called that pre-condition "a violation to our rights as a member of the NPT" (referring to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons). YEMEN •Yemen's internationally-recognized government and the Houthi rebels they're fighting agreed to the largest prisoner swap of their 11-year civil war. •The Houthis plan to release 1,200 prisoners - including seven Saudis and 23 Sudanese - in exchange for the government freeing 1,700 Houthi prisoners. •Some lauded the swap - which was mediated by the UN and the Red Cross - as a rare bright spot for diplomacy in a conflict that otherwise seems stalemated, but others worried that the deal only rewards the Houthi's strategy of detaining civilians and aid workers for use as bargaining chips in deals like this. LIBYA •Libya's army chief, Mohammed Ali Ahmed al Haddad, died along with seven others when their plane crashed shortly after takeoff in Turkey. •Al Haddad was in Turkey on a state visit where he secured Ankara's agreement to keep troops in Libya to bolster the UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) for another year. •Investigators are studying the cause of the crash, but an initial assessment ruled out sabotage. The GNA's enfeebled Prime Minister, Abdul-Hamid Dbeibah, called it a "tragic accident," while his eastern ex-rival, Khalifa Haftar, expressed "deep sorrow over this tragic loss." (Note: I am highly skeptical. He was one of the good ones in Libya. No aircraft suddenly crashes after thirty minutes in flight unless there's a pressure activated bomb aboard )
Open source reportOff Leash update 3 Nov COMING UP THIS WEEK •The U.S. votes in mid-term elections on Tuesday. The most-watched races include New York City's mayoral contest, heated gubernatorial polls in Virginia and New Jersey, and California's Prop. 50 on redistricting (to supporters) / gerrymandering (to those opposed). •Sunday marks the 36th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $2,884/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $107,777 •Cobalt: $48,570/ton •Copper: $10,888/ton •Ethereum: $3,733 •Gold: $4,022/toz •Lead: $2,017/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.28/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $60.76/barrel •Zinc: $3,056/ton GAZA •Hamas returned the remains of three more hostages, including U.S. citizen Omer Neutra. •Despite Israeli claims otherwise, Hamas maintains that it's working as fast as it can to locate and return the remains of the other eight hostages who died in captivity over the course of the two-year war. •Meanwhile, an Israeli airstrike killed one man who was allegedly threatening Israeli troops near Gaza City. LEBANON •Israel is growing frustrated with the Lebanese government's lack of progress disarming Hezbollah, and has taken up the task of targeting Hezbollah operatives in southern Lebanon with near-daily airstrikes in recent weeks. •Lebanon's Pres. Aoun resents the intrusions and wants Israeli troops to leave the five areas of southern Lebanon that they still occupy. Aoun has called on Israel to negotiate a more permanent ceasefire than the fragile (but lasting) truce they signed a year ago. •However, Israel seems uninterested in negotiating while Aoun's government is failing to uphold its commitment to contain and disarm Hezbollah. [Analysts point out that Aoun's Lebanese Armed Forces are weaker than Hezbollah and he can't do much to force disarmament.] •Prime Minister Netanyahu warned of further Israeli action against Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, and blamed Iran for backing both Hezbollah and the Houthis. TANZANIA •Tanzania's election commission confirmed Samia Suluhu Hassan - who appointed its commissioners - as the winner of last week's presidential election, with an unsurprising 98% of the vote. The commission also dubiously claimed that turnout was around 75% higher than in 2020, when voters had more of a choice of candidates. •Hassan's win was essentially uncontested this time, since her government barred both real rivals from running. It also tried to prevent unhappy Tanzanians from protesting against the election by imposing a nationwide curfew, restricting internet access, and condescendingly calling critics of the undemocratic poll "neither responsible nor patriotic." •The main opposition party, CHADEMA - whose leader is imprisoned awaiting sentencing on spurious charges - claims security officers have killed hundreds of protesters. Demonstrations continue, despite Hassan's crackdown. CHINA •U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said China made a "real mistake" by proposing since-postponed export control restrictions on rare earths, since the threat alone motivated the U.S. to get serious about finding alternative sources for its rare earths needs. •Australia is one of the alternative sources being developed: Pres. Trump and Prime Minister Albanese recently signed an agreement to jointly develop Australia's rare earth supplies. •Incidentally, Bessent's comments felt like a close parallel to the effect that U.S. export controls on advanced computing chips have had on Chinese chipmaking, where supply restrictions forced fast-track domestic innovators to quickly catch up to technologies they were barred from importing. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash Update 3 May 2025 CHINA •China's commerce ministry said it's "evaluating" U.S. proposals to start trade talks, but the ministry's statement sounded cool on the idea: it warned that if the U.S. "wants to talk, it should show its sincerity and be prepared to correct its wrong practices” by abandoning “unilateral tariffs." •Separately, Apple estimated that new U.S. tariffs on China will increase its costs by $900 million in the second quarter alone. Amazon also warned this week that "tariff and trade policies" - among other pre-existing factors - make its future results "inherently unpredictable." IRAN •The U.S. slapped fresh sanctions on Iran's oil trade, and U.S. SecDef Hegseth separately posted a clear "Message to IRAN" on X: "We see your LETHAL support to The Houthis. We know exactly what you are doing, You know very well what the U.S. Military is capable of — and you were warned. You will pay the CONSEQUENCE at the time and place of our choosing." •Iran was relatively restrained in its response: its Foreign Ministry criticized the U.S. for "contradictory behavior and provocative statements" but refrained from making harsher comments that could derail ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear talks. •Most accounts suggest both sides are still optimistic about talks and broadly interested in seeing them advance to the harder, technical phase of negotiations. •However, Oman, which is mediating between the U.S. and Iran, said the fourth round of meetings will be postponed from tomorrow to an unspecified later date "for logistical reasons." Iran seems to want the U.S. to repeal its latest sanctions before talks resume, but my guess is that it wants to avoid further escalation and won't make new sanctions a sticking point. •Pres. Trump then threatened to impose secondary sanctions on any country that continues to buy oil from Iran. China is by far the largest importer of Iranian oil and would be affected most under secondary sanctions (although history suggests it would find ways to evade sanctions by skirting them or switching suppliers...Venezuela, for one, is lobbying Beijing to buy more of its crude as Chevron production winds down). RUSSIA and NORTH KOREA •Russia and North Korea held simultaneous ceremonies to mark the start of construction on the first road bridge between them (a rail bridge already links the two countries at the same spot). •The new project is a further sign of strengthening ties between the two outcast states. Their leaders have also become more overt about celebrating North Korea's support for Russia against Ukraine in recent weeks. AFGHANISTAN •A former Russian ambassador to Afghanistan said that Russia will help the Taliban government fight their "common enemy" of Islamic State-Khorasan. He was vague about what Russian support would entail, saying only that Russia "will provide our best assistance to the authorities of [Afghanistan] through specialised structures." •No country has formally recognized the Taliban government, but Russia seems to be moving in that direction: last month it removed the Taliban from its list of terrorist organizations, to which it was added in 2003. DRC •DRC and Rwanda expect to submit a draft ceasefire agreement for eastern DRC today. Their temporary truce continues to hold better than their short-lived prior attempts at peace. Happy Birthday Dad, (Edgar D. Prince) RIP. We miss you every day.
Open source reportAn minerals agreement, Israeli action in Syria, U.S.-UK strikes in Yemen, LNG plans in Mozambique, legal pressure on Joseph Kabila, and Mali’s proposed five-year junta transition.
Open source reportOff Leash update 24 March 2025 COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,623/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,450/ton •Cobalt: $33,610/ton •Copper: $9,856/ton •Gold: $3,029/toz •Lead: $2,017/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.94/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $68.18/barrel •Zinc: $2,928/ton UKRAINE •Ukrainian and U.S. officials met in Riyadh yesterday, and may continue their summit today. They aim to finalize details surrounding the 30-day pause on striking energy infrastructure. •U.S. officials in Riyadh will also meet with Russian officials today. Russia has already agreed to the pause on energy infrastructure strikes, so these meetings will seek to advance an additional maritime ceasefire. •China is reportedly considering contributing peacekeepers to uphold a post-war truce in Ukraine "in accordance with the wishes of the parties." Russia had previously rejected the idea of NATO peacekeepers in Ukraine, but would probably be more amenable if China participated in the mission. GAZA •U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff told Fox News Sunday that Hamas seemed to initially accept his bridge proposal to extend the Gaza ceasefire last week, but then reneged and rejected it. Witkoff blamed Hamas for the failure to find a truce and the descent to resumed fighting. •Israel targeted Hamas's prime minister in Gaza, Ismail Barhoum, killing him in a hospital where he was receiving treatment for injuries he sustained in another Israeli strike. Barhoum had only been prime minister for a few days after his predecessor was killed earlier in the week - also by an Israeli strike. •Hamas's health ministry said Gaza's wartime death toll has now surpassed 50,000. Hamas doesn't distinguish between dead civilians and combatants. •Israel's Security Cabinet inaugurated a new directorate to assist Palestinians who want to be resettled abroad, and the new directorate kicked off its mission by flying 70 Gazans with foreign citizenships or family ties to Europe, where they'll resettle. YEMEN •Yemen's Houthis fired a Palestine 2 ballistic missile in the general direction of Israel's Ben Gurion Airport, but it was easily intercepted before it reached Israeli airspace (despite Houthi claims that it reached its target). SUDAN •After seizing the presidential palace from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on Friday, Sudan's military continued to retake key sites in Khartoum. Over the weekend, it recaptured the Central Bank, the intelligence headquarters, and the Corinthia Hotel. •The army's recent success in Khartoum doesn't mean the war is over: the RSF still holds parts of the capital, as well as large swathes of western Sudan. DRC •Nearly a week after Presidents Tshisekedi and Kagame agreed on the necessity of imposing a ceasefire in eastern DRC, the leaders of the Rwanda-backed rebel umbrella group Alliance Fleuve Congo (which includes the M23) said it supported a truce and announced that its fighters would withdraw from the mining town of Walikale, which they captured the day after Tshisekedi and Kagame met in Doha. •Tshisekedi then kindly asked (but did not order) his troops to observe the ceasefire too. •Both sides seem skeptical of the truce and ready to resume fighting at any moment. Rwanda and the rebels it backs are not ceding Goma or their other major spoils of war, and the Congolese military warned that it "reserves the right to intervene in the event of any hostile movement likely to compromise the pause in fighting." 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 20 March UKRAINE •Presidents Zelensky and Trump spoke by phone yesterday, and it was much more cordial than their last conversation in the Oval Office. Zelensky agreed to Pres. Putin's watered-down ceasefire proposal pausing attacks on energy and infrastructure targets for 30 days. •Zelensky asked the U.S. to monitor key energy sites protected by the current agreement: "Just the assertion and the word of Putin that he will not strike energy sites is too little." •The White House said its negotiators will continue to meet Ukrainian teams in Saudi Arabia to seek a Black Sea truce "in the coming days," and hoped to eventually reach a full ceasefire plan that both Ukraine and Russia can agree to. GAZA •Israel launched "targeted ground activities" in Gaza yesterday, seizing a sliver of the Netzarim Corridor to create a "partial buffer zone" between the north and south of the strip. Israel's goal seems to be to resume vehicle checks and add pressure on Hamas. •Thousands of Israelis protested in Jerusalem for a new ceasefire. CHINA •Pres. Trump teased a possible visit by China's Pres. Xi Jinping to Washington "in the not too distant future." •Trump said he'd ordered the capital to be cleaned up ahead of Xi's yet-unplanned arrival - as he did ahead of previous visits by other foreign dignitaries like India's Prime Minister Modi, France's Pres. Macron, and the UK's Prime Minister Starmer: "I didn't want to have them see tents. I didn't want to have them see graffiti. I didn't want to have them see broken barriers and potholes in the roads." •Canada may not be inviting Xi to visit anytime soon: China-Canada relations have taken two turns for the worse. Yesterday, China executed four Canadian citizens on drug trafficking charges - despite Ottawa's pleas for leniency. Then - at midnight this morning - China imposed (previously announced) tariffs on $3.7 billion in Canadian agricultural and food exports to China in retaliation for Canadian tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. IRAN •Axios and The Jerusalem Post independently reported that Pres. Trump's recent letter to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei gave Iran a two-month(ish) deadline to reach a new nuclear deal, and threatened significant new sanctions if the deadline isn't met. •Neither publication cited an exact date for the deadline, and Trump's letter may have left it vague to give Khamenei time to soften his position and come around to the idea of talking to the U.S. •Khamenei hasn't officially responded yet, but other Iranian officials - including Pres. Pezeshkian - have gently hinted that they're open to talks without explicitly disagreeing with Khamenei's hardline position. YEMEN •After Pres. Trump threatened to hold Iran responsible for future Houthi attacks on Red Sea ships, Iran reportedly privately asked its Houthi proxies to dial back their attacks and nudged Oman to convey the same message to Houthi leaders. •The Houthis remain outwardly defiant: Houthi foreign minister Jamal Amer vowed to resist U.S. pressure or Iranian appeals to "dial down" Red Sea attacks. But behind closed doors, the Houthis are probably listening to their benefactors (plus, ongoing U.S. strikes are chipping away at their arsenal). •My guess is that we'll see the Houthis lob some sporadic, easily-interceptible missiles in Israel's direction - like the one they fired towards Ben Gurion Airport overnight that Israel promptly destroyed - but won't see the dramatic escalation they've promised. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 17 March COMING UP THIS WEEK •Today is St. Patrick's Day, commemorating the patron saint of Ireland, the arrival of Christianity to Ireland, and – in the U.S. - beer ☘️ •March Madness starts this week and culminates in NCAA title games April 6 (women) and 7 (men). Last year was the first year the women's final drew more viewers than the men's game. •Both DRC and the M23 confirmed that their delegates are in Luanda for Angola-mediated peace talks due to start tomorrow...maybe (more on that below). •Thursday is the vernal equinox, which marks the start of spring in the northern hemisphere - and Nowruz, or new year, in Iran. COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,682/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,450/ton •Cobalt: $36,170/ton •Copper: $9,781/ton •Gold: $2,997/toz [Gold prices surpassed $3,000/toz for the first time last week on higher demand due to expected rate cuts and concerns that tariffs will slow global growth] •Lead: $2,069/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.07/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $67.51/barrel •Zinc: $2,973/ton DRC •Angola's Pres. Lourenço is mediating peace talks between DRC and the M23 due to start tomorrow. •Lourenço called on both sides to observe a ceasefire starting at midnight this morning, but they both ignored the idea. The M23 even accused DRC of escalating its airstrikes on Rwandan and M23 positions today. •Optimism for tomorrow's summit is low. •Separately, Rwanda and Belgium mutually severed diplomatic ties over Rwanda's role in the ongoing conflict (which Rwanda implausibly denies). UKRAINE •Presidents Trump and Putin plan to talk by phone tomorrow to discuss Trump's ceasefire proposal, which Putin is considering unenthusiastically. Putin wants "ironclad" guarantees that Ukraine won't be allowed to join NATO. GAZA •Prime Minister Netanyahu is facing criticism for abruptly firing Shin Bet director Rohen Bar, who is reportedly investigating some of Netanyahu's aides for wrongdoing. Netanyahu's critics say he's seeking to expand his control within the government. YEMEN •Two weeks after re-designating Yemen's Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organization, the U.S. carried out airstrikes on Houthi arsenals and air defenses. •Iran - which backs the Houthis - vowed to "respond decisively and destructively," but the Houthis' counterstrikes on U.S. ships in the region were easily intercepted. SERBIA •Over 100,000 Serbians - and perhaps far more - protested against Pres. Aleksandar Vucic on Saturday in what some described as the largest demonstrations in Serbia's history (Vucic described it as a "large protest with enormous negative energy toward the authorities.") •Demonstrators are frustrated with the lack of government accountability over a train station collapse last November. Vucic said his government "understood the message and we will have to change ourselves," but he hasn't proposed any meaningful changes since the protests began. •Media reports accused Belgrade police of using a banned "sonic weapon" to disperse protesters, but Vucic denied the allegations as "a vile lie," saying he'd heard the weapon's sound "abroad" and "that sound was not heard on the streets of Belgrade on Saturday night." VENEZUELA •Pres. Trump invoked part of the 1798 Alien and Sedition Acts to deport 261 alleged gang members - including 238 from the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua and 23 from the multinational MS-13 gang - to El Salvador. A U.S. court order blocked some of the deportations, but only after they'd already taken place: El Salvador's Pres. Bukele tweeted, "Oopsie... Too late." EPIC!
Open source reportOff Leash update 23 Jan Yemen •Yemen's Houthi rebels released the crew of the Galaxy Leader - a ship they hijacked at the beginning of their stranglehold on Red Sea shipping lanes in Nov. 2023 - citing "coordination with the Hamas movement." The Houthis had conditioned the crew's release upon a ceasefire in Gaza, and made good on that pledge by freeing them on Day 4 of the ceasefire. •The Houthis have also pledged to scale back their Red Sea attacks to focus on Israeli-linked ships, but - as I noted on Monday - many analysts are skeptical that they'd relinquish the lucrative business of selling safe passage guarantees that blossomed because of their attacks on vessels that haven't paid up. •Unrelatedly, Pres. Trump signed an executive order re-designating the Houthis a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO). Trump had designated the Houthis a FTO - and a Specially Designated Global Terrorist group - in his first term, but ex-Pres. Biden lifted both designations to facilitate humanitarian aid flows to Yemen. Ukraine •Pres. Zelensky spoke at Davos yesterday with a warning that Pres. Trump's "America First" priorities will leave a geopolitical leadership gap, and called on European Union (EU) leaders to fill it: "Europe needs to compete for the top spot in priorities, alliances and technological development." Russia •European Commission Vice President Kaja Kallas delivered a similar message at the European Defense Agency, warning that "Russia could test the EU's readiness to defend itself in three to five years" and calling on the EU to spend more on defense and "prepare for the worst." •Kallas pointed out that Russia currently spends 9% of its GDP on defense - compared to a collective EU average of 1.9% - and is far better equipped than the EU for a further military buildup upon escalation. She noted, for example, that Russia can produce more weapons and ammunition in three months than the EU's 27 countries can produce collectively in 12 months, and called for EU countries to earmark more for defense. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 20 January •Today's a big day in global events... •First, President Trump will be re-inaugurated at noon. The ceremony will be held inside the capital for the first time in 40 years due to freezing temperatures. And China's Vice President, Han Zheng, will attend the inauguration, marking the first time a senior Chinese official has ever attended a U.S. inauguration. •Trump's critics will prefer to celebrate Martin Luther King Day today. •The World Economic Forum starts today in Davos. This year's theme is "Collaboration for the Intelligent Age." •The Ohio State Buckeyes play the Notre Dame Fighting Irish for the NCAA football title at 7:30 pm ET tonight. The Buckeyes are favored by 8.5 points. You can watch on ESPN in the U.S. or stream on DirecTV, YouTube TV, etc. •The Winter X Games start Wednesday and end Friday in Buttermilk, Colorado. You can watch live and for free on the Roku Sports Channel in the U.S. and on YouTube abroad. •Belarus votes for president on Sunday, and I can already spare you the suspense and tell you that Pres. Lukashenko will be reelected. He's the only president Belarus has ever had, and all four of the candidates approved to run "against" him are staunchly pro-regime: they were only included on the ballot to create a veneer of democratic legitimacy for a sham vote to rubber-stamp Lukashenko's certain win. Commodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,685/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $33,550/ton •Cobalt: $24,300/ton •Copper: $9,190/ton •Gold: $2,707/toz •Lead: $1,967/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.79/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $77.37/barrel •Zinc: $2,942/ton Gaza •Israel's security cabinet approved the Gaza ceasefire deal and it went into effect yesterday. •In accordance with the terms of the deal, Hamas released three hostages and Israel released 90 Palestinian prisoners. •Their next exchange is due to take place on Jan. 25, when Hamas will release four living female hostages in exchange for Israel freeing 30-50 more Palestinian prisoners. •After the ceasefire went into effect, masked and armed Hamas fighters fanned out across Gaza in what the NYT called a "show of force" for the populace. An analyst assessed: "[t]hey’re conveying that Hamas must be a part of any future arrangements, or at least, be coordinated with." •Despite the public display of confidence, Hamas's future role in Gaza is at risk. Israel's foreign minister reiterated yesterday that Israel had not agreed to let Hamas remain in power in Gaza, and instead noted: "[w]e are determined to achieve the objectives of the war" (which included destroying Hamas). Yemen •Yemen's Houthis launched their Red Sea shipping blockade ostensibly in solidarity with Hamas in Gaza, so watchers are wondering if they'll loosen their chokehold on regional shipping now that a ceasefire has taken effect in Gaza - or if the spoils of their ransom and protection payments are too attractive to forego. •Some analysts - including at The Economist - think the Houthis may choose to continue their lucrative racket exploiting the shipping industry even after the war in Gaza ends. •The Houthis released a statement yesterday saying they would be "stopping sanctions" on (i.e., no longer targeting) non-Israel-aligned ships...but they always claimed they were targeting only Israel-aligned ships, so this doesn't seem like a change of stance at all. •The Houthis plan to release a military statement today with further information about their future plans. China •TikTok said it would "go dark" in the U.S. after the U.S. Supreme Court upheld a law that would ban the app unless its parent company sold it to non-Chinese owners. •The app was down for about 12 hours, but then Pres.-elect Trump promised to issue an executive order delaying enforcement of the ban - "TikTok is back!" - upon taking office today, and the app re-opened to U.S. users. Libya 1/2
Open source reportOff leash update 24 Dec Mozambique •Mozambique's highest court reaffirmed official election results naming the ruling Frelimo party's candidate, Daniel Chapo, the new president. •Opposition candidate Venâncio Mondlane - who came in second and fled the country just after the poll - had threatened a "new popular uprising" if the court didn't reverse results in his favor, and called on his supporters to stage new protests after the court's decision yesterday. They complied, turning out in droves to chant his name and throw rocks at police. Gaza and Yemen •Prime Minister Netanyahu told Israeli lawmakers that "some progress" had been made towards a ceasefire and hostage release deal, but added "I don't know how long it will take." •Meanwhile, Israeli defense minister Israel Katz publicly acknowledged that Israel was behind the July assassination of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. It was always widely assumed that Israel was responsible, but this is the first time an Israeli official confirmed it. •Katz's comment on Haniyeh came in the context of a threat to Houthi leaders: "We will strike hard at the Houthis ... and decapitate their leadership – just as we did with Haniyeh, Sinwar, and Nasrallah in Tehran, Gaza, and Lebanon, we will do so in Hodeida and Sanaa." •The Houthis lobbed another ballistic missile towards Israel - their third in under a week - and vowed to keep firing "until the aggression against our people in Gaza stops." This missile was easily intercepted - though some Israelis suffered injuries while fleeing to shelter. Syria •Jordanian and Qatari diplomats visited Damascus to court Syria's new leaders. Most Arab countries broke ties with Assad after his 2011 crackdown on dissent, but they now see Syria's transition as a chance to rebuild relations with the new government. •Armed men torched a Christmas tree in the mostly-Christian Syrian town of Suqaylabiyah, and it sparked an uproar among Christians and other minority groups in Syria, who are skeptically waiting to see if the former Islamists now running the country will do as much as they've promised to preserve minority rights. •The UN's International, Impartial and Independent Mechanism for Syria - which was founded in 2016 to investigate ex-Pres. Assad's war crimes - said Syria's new government is "very receptive" to its efforts to gather evidence against Assad. Of course it is: many of Assad's worst crimes targeted rebels like them. North Korea •U.S. intelligence officials said that Kim Jong Un sent troops to support Pres. Putin - who Kim has called his "closest comrade" - on his own volition, and not because Putin asked for his help. •That's a shift from the initial narrative, which suggested Putin pleaded for Kim's help because he was suffering high casualty rates in Ukraine and desperately needed more soldiers (it now seems the North Koreans in Ukraine are being plucked off quickly, so they're proving to be poor reinforcements anyway). Venezuela •Pres. Maduro's loyal Attorney General, Tarek Saab, announced that 233 more political prisoners were be released in a belated Christmas gift (Christmas began Oct. 1 in Venezuela, per Maduro's decree). •Saab claims the government has now released 956 prisoners - of the ~2,000 arrested during Maduro's post-election crackdown - but rights groups haven't been able to independently corroborate that count. Other News •El Salvador's president, Nayib Bukele, overturned a years long ban on mining in the country and expressed hope that rich gold reserves could "transform" the economy. Environmentalists are appalled. •Earlier today, NASA's unmanned Parker Solar Probe flew closer to the sun than any earthman-made spacecraft has before, coming within 3.8 million miles (6.1 million km) of the star's surface.
Open source reportOff Leash update 25 Nov Coming Up This Week •The Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee on Plastics Pollution (INC-5) meets in Busan, Korea today through Sunday. They aim to set targets and a timeline for reducing global plastic production, but it will be hard to reach concensus on plastics policy when we don't yet have clear scientific concensus on the risks plastics pose - and with plastics producers and oil companies resisting new regulation. •Indonesia votes in regional elections and Namibia votes in a general election on Wednesday. Indonesia's vote isn't getting much press: most of the regional races are inconsequential on the national scale and the overall vote seems more like a gauge of new president Joko Widodo's regional influence than a referendum on his policy plan. In Namibia, the long-ruling SWAPO party faces its toughest test yet because economic frustrations are driving younger voters away from the status quo and into the arms of upstart opposition parties. •The U.S. celebrates Thanksgiving on Thursday and shops Black Friday the following day. Only one of the two holidays has spread beyond U.S. borders: many other countries - including much of Europe and even Iran - now join in on the Black Friday shopping bonanza...but not the Thanksgiving feast. •Ireland votes in a snap election on Friday. Prime Minister Harris's Fine Gael party is polling in third place after losing one-fourth of its support over a series of gaffes in recent weeks, but its main coalition partner - Fianna Fail - is polling in first, so their coalition should prevail. Coommodity Prices •Aluminum: $2,624/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $33,550/ton •Cobalt: $24,300/ton •Copper: $8,968/ton •Gold: $2,640/toz •Lead: $2,022/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.32/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $69.53/barrel •Zinc: $2,967/ton Israel, Hezbollah, and Hamas •Despite reported progress in Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire talks, both sides continued to exchange fire. Israel targeted a top Hezbollah military commander in central Beirut, killing at least 29 (but reportedly not the commander it was after). Hezbollah then retaliated by firing around 250 rockets into Israel, including at Tel Aviv (Israel intercepted most but there were a few injuries). •Israeli-Moldovan Rabbi Zvi Kogan went missing in Abu Dhabi last Thursday and was found murdered yesterday. Israeli officials called his killing an "abhorrent act of antisemitic terrorism," and UAE police arrested "three perpetrators involved in the murder." Israel has previously accused Iran and its proxies of targeting Israelis abroad, and Emirati police are investigating the possibility that Iran was behind this assassination. Ukraine / Yemen •Financial Times reported that Russia has recruited - and, in some cases, forced - hundreds of Yemenis to fight in its war against Ukraine. •According to the Times report, many of the new recruits had no prior military training or experience and couldn't read the enlistment contracts they signed. Some said a man speaking non-native Arabic fired a pistol over their head and ordered them to sign a document written in Russian. •The other side of Russia's recruitment drive in Yemen is equally concerning: U.S. Special Envoy for Yemen Tim Lenderking assessed that Russia may be rewarding the Houthi leaders facilitating its recruitment with promises to send new weapons the Houthis can use to target Red Sea shipping. Pakistan •Thousands of supporters of deposed Prime Minister Imran Khan rallied in Islamabad to demand his release from jail - and the dissolution of the current government that jailed him. Khan faces over 150 criminal charges - which he says are politically motivated - and has been incarcerated for over a year. Afghanistan •An apparently lone gunman opened fire at a Sufi shrine in Afghanistan's Baghlan province during a weekly ritual on Friday, killing 10. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 13 Nov Hezbollah •Israel's foreign minister told the media that "there is some progress in the attempts to reach a settlement in Lebanon," raising hopes for a ceasefire. •However, such hopes now seem premature: Israel's brand-new defense minister, Israel Katz, quickly reaffirmed that "there will be no ceasefire and no respite" until Israel achieves its objectives, which include the lofty goal of returning tens of thousands of northern Israelis to the homes they evacuated due to war. •For its part, Hezbollah said it hasn't received any new peace proposals and is "ready for a prolonged war" with Israel. •It may not last too long anyway. Israel's military said it has "dismantled a majority of Hezbollah’s weapons storage and missile manufacturing facilities" under the Hezbollah stronghold of Dahieh, Beirut. •That hasn't stopped Hezbollah from lobbing more rockets and drones at Israel. The group launched around 200 attacks this week; killing one Israeli soldier and two civilians in separate attacks on northern Israel. •Separately, there are unconfirmed reports that a recent Israeli strike on al-Qusayr, Syria killed Salim Jamil Ayyash: the Hezbollah operative who was accused of (and convicted in absentia by a UN-backed tribunal for) assassinating Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri in 2005. In addition to his tribunal sentence to life in prison, Ayyash had a $10 million U.S. bounty on his head. Yemen •Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis launched drones and missiles at two U.S. destroyers - USS Stockdale and USS Spruance - in the Bab al Mandeb strait off the coast of Yemen. •It sounds like it was a significant barrage: a Pentagon spokesman said it lasted for hours and involved five ballistic missiles, two cruise missiles, and at least eight kamikaze drones. •The Houthis falsely claimed they attacked the USS Lincoln aircraft carrier too, and erroneously claimed its attack "successfully achieved its objectives": the USS Lincoln didn't report any incidents and the destroyers intercepted all incoming projectiles and sustained no damage or injuries. Ukraine •Russia fired missiles at Kyiv for the first time in three months. Ukraine's air defenses intercepted both cruise missiles and both ballistic missiles, as well as 37 drones. Kyiv reported only mild damage to a warehouse and a single minor injury - both from falling debris. Some drones were still flying, though. Sudan •The U.S. Treasury sanctioned the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) commander in West Darfur, Abdel Rahman Juma Barkalla, because of the human rights abuses his troops committed in the region under his command - including kidnapping and killing the regional governor. •Separately, the UN undersecretary-general for political and peacebuilding affairs called for unspecified countries and third-parties to stop sending weapons to the RSF and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). •The UAE and Russia's Africa Corps (fka Wagner Group) are arming the RSF, while Egypt is closely allied with the SAF and Iran is reportedly considering sending weapons to the SAF. Niger •Niger's Mining Minister, Ousmane Abarchi, told state media that the junta had "already met with Russian companies that are interested in coming to explore and exploit Niger's natural resources... not only uranium." (Though uranium is the most significant natural resource Niger has: it's the world's seventh-largest uranium producer). •The junta seems open to handing over its minerals to Russia - especially if it means snubbing French companies like Orano, which was producing uranium in Niger before the coup. Abarchi said French companies won't be allowed to exploit Niger's minerals because France refuses to recognize the junta's power grab. Electric Vehicles •Volkswagen quintupled down on its investment in U.S. electric vehicle (EV) maker Rivian, raising its investment from $800 million to $5.8 billion.
Open source reportOff leash update 17 October ***The IDF successfully eliminated Hama's leader Yahya Sinwar Venezuela •Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado denied Pres. Maduro's claim that she's fled the country for Spain: "Venezuelans know that I am here in Venezuela, the people know it and Nicolas Maduro also knows it." •Machado remains - wisely - in hiding and out of reach of police seeking to arrest her on bogus, politically-motivated charges. She told an independent TV channel that Maduro and his cronies "are desperate to know where I am and I'm not going to give them that pleasure." Ukraine •Pres. Zelensky was deprived of an opportunity to do a grand reveal of his "victory plan" during last week's multilateral meeting on Ukraine, but he instead pitched the plan bilaterally during a whirlwind tour meeting leaders of the UK, U.S., France, Italy, and Germany. •Yesterday, Zelensky shared the high-level plan with Ukraine's parliament and the media. •Its centerpiece is a request for NATO to extend an unconditional invitation to Ukraine to join its alliance - which has not been forthcoming - and it also calls on partners to expand their military support for Ukraine. •None of the plan's five public points contained any major new proposals - yet Zelensky insisted that "if we start implementing this Victory Plan now, we may be able to end the war no later than next year." (The plan also proposed three "secret" points that were selectively shared with partners). •So far, it's received a muted response. NATO's SecGen, Mark Rutte, said the alliance would "take note" of Zelensky's proposal, and several partners announced minor new aid packages (the U.S. offered $425 million in fresh military support - including for air defenses - and Australia said it would send Ukraine 50 old M1 Abrams tanks worth $164 million). Hezbollah •Israel brushed off a U.S. warning that it "had concerns with and [is] opposed to" Israel's strikes on Beirut and carried out more airstrikes on Hezbollah targets near the Lebanese capital yesterday, killing at least 16. •Israel didn't officially comment on the other U.S. critique conveyed yesterday - an ultimatum to improve aid flows to Gaza within 30 days or risk losing access to new U.S. weapons - but there was a slight uptick in humanitarian aid flows to Gaza. Yesterday, 50 aid trucks entered the strip - more than the recent rate of 30 per day but still far short of the 350 per day that aid officials say Gazans need. Iran •U.S. B-2 Spirit bombers targeted five underground Houthi weapons facilities yesterday. •The airstrikes were ostensibly carried out to "further degrade the Houthis' capability" to threaten Red Sea shipping, but the choice to use B-2s to strike underground targets was also intended to send a message to Iran that its underground nuclear sites could be next. •(The B-2 is the only U.S. plane that can carry the largest "bunker buster" bombs capable of destroying Iran's underground nuclear sites, and it has never before been used in Yemen - where F/A-18s can do the same job cheaper and with less fleet risk). •SecDef Austin alluded to the Yemen operation being a broader signal to Iran by calling it: "a unique demonstration of the United States’ ability to target facilities that our adversaries seek to keep out of reach, no matter how deeply buried underground, hardened or fortified." •Separately, there are unconfirmed reports that Iranian border guards massacred dozens - or perhaps scores - of Afghans trying to illegally enter Iran from Pakistan on Sunday. •Beijing's latest war games succeeded in scaring Taiwan. A senior Taiwanese security official told Reuters that the unprecedented drills showed that the People's Liberation Army is "increasing the building up of their capacity to turn military exercises into a conflict" and assessed that "this drill presented more of a threat than ever before to Taiwan."
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 Sept Syria •Israel targeted a government research institute in Masyaf, Syria, killing at least 18. •Reuters reported that a team of Iranian scientists was working at the institute, which produces short- and long-range missiles and drones that Iran sends to its proxies, including Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. (The facility also produces chemical weapons that Pres. Assad uses on his own people). Israel •A Jordanian gunman killed three Israeli civilian workers at the Allenby Bridge border crossing. Jordan has a vigilant security service and strong security ties with Israel (though many Jordanians sympathize with their Palestinian neighbors), so attacks like this are rare. This was the first one along the Jordanian-Israeli border since Oct. 7. •Meanwhile, Israel targeted a Hamas command that it said was "disguised in the humanitarian area in Khan Younis," killing at least 40. Hamas said the casualties were displaced civilians and denied hiding militants among them. Venezuela •Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado vowed to stay in Venezuela and "take part in the struggle from here" while the candidate she supported in July's election, Edmundo Gonzalez, supports the cause from exile in Spain. •Gonzalez joins a long list of Venezuelan opposition leaders - and even mere sympathizers - driven into exile. The NYT interviewed five others who served as election observers but fled to exile in Colombia after (rightfully) asking questions about election results. •Those that didn't flee are being rounded up in Pres. Maduro's Operation Knock Knock - a nationwide manhunt for people who attended opposition protests or posted pro-opposition content online. Thousands have been arrested so far. China •Foreign direct investment in China hit a record low of negative $14.8 billion in the second quarter. •Perhaps in response, Communist Party leaders removed two industries - publishing and traditional medicine production - from the list of sectors barring foreign investment. There are still 29 industries on the restricted list. Ukraine •Ukraine launched a significant drone attack on Moscow overnight. Russia acknowledged the attack and closed three of Moscow's four airports to activate air defenses that it claims shot down 144 Ukrainian drones. •Ukraine claimed Moscow also launched a reciprocal drone attack on Kyiv. Mexico •Mexico's upper chamber is weighing a controversial constitutional change that will swap 7,000 judges with new, popularly-elected replacements. •The proposal was easily passed in the lower chamber last week, and there are rumors that enough upper chamber swing legislators have swung in favor of the amendment and are ready to pass it. •AMLO is pitching the change as a much-needed judicial reform, but the plan's myriad critics say it will expose judges to stronger political influence from Morena leaders - or worse, from bad actors like drug cartels. Other News •Fresh off local elections that resulted in big gains for the far right - and smarting from two deadly stabbings committed by rejected asylees - Germany said it would expand border patrols and strengthen a "hard line" on illegal migration. •Separately, Australia's government announced plans to ban children from social media - though it didn't confirm where the age cutoff would be.
Open source reportOff Leash update 29 Aug Venezuela •One of Venezuela's top election officials, Juan Carlos Delpino, directly discredited Pres. Maduro's account of the vote for the first time this week. •Delpino - who is one of two opposition-aligned members of the five-person National Electoral Council (CNE) responsible for organizing elections and certifying their results - told the NYT that his council "had not received any evidence" that Maduro won a majority of the vote, and lamented that the CNE had "failed the country." He spoke from hiding, fearing for his safety. •His fear is reasonable: Maduro's security forces continue to arrest Venezuelans who dare support the opposition. Perkins Rocha - opposition leader Marina Corina Machado's lawyer and close confidante - was among those arrested this week. •With Diosdado Cabello now appointed Minister for the Interior, Justice, and Peace; we can expect the crackdown to worsen: Cabello has previously said that Machado and opposition president-elect Edmundo Gonzalez should be "behind bars." Israel •Hamas said the 10 Palestinians Israel killed in its West Bank operations Tuesday and Wednesday were among its members. •There's a polio outbreak in Gaza, and the UN hopes to innoculate 640,000 Palestinian children with vaccines to stop the spread of the virus - starting this weekend. •Israel reportedly authorized temporary and localized humanitarian pauses in the fighting in Gaza to facilitate vaccinations, but evacuations, displacement, and ongoing fighting will certainly complicate the process. Yemen •Iran says its Houthi proxies in Yemen have agreed to a truce to let rescuers assess the Sounion oil tanker its missiles damaged and set alight. However, the Houthis say they only agreed to allow a tugboat to come tow the ailing - and possibly leaking - Sounion away. Either way, we'll soon learn how big of an environmental risk the damaged tanker is. Ukraine •Ukraine used F-16s to shoot down incoming Russian cruise missiles on Monday, marking the first aerial kills by the new (to Ukraine) jets. •Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Norway have pledged a total of 85 F-16s for Ukraine; because only a few of them have arrived so far, Ukraine is only using the few it has against targets like these cruise missiles that can't shoot back. •Separately, Ukrainian drones targeted the Zenit oil depot deep inside Russia's Kirov region, causing two fires. It's the first time Ukraine has struck Kirov, which is 700 miles (1,125 km) inside Russia. Russia •In response to new U.S. sanctions against Russia, Russia permanently banned 92 U.S. citizens - including journalists, lawyers, professors, and business executives - from entering the country. •Among those banned were 14 WSJ employees, including WSJ editor in chief Emma Tucker. Given the 16 months their colleague Evan Gershkovich spent in Russian jail before he was finally released in a swap last month, I doubt anyone from the WSJ was eager to visit Russia anytime soon anyway. Other News •French authorities charged Telegram founder Pavel Durov with a slew of crimes related to illegal activity others committed on his platform. He was released on bail of €5 million ($5.5 million) and barred from leaving the country. Free speech advocates and tech companies are preturbed that the creator of an online forum can be held liable for crimes others use it to commit.
Open source reportOff Leash update 28 Aug Venezuela •Venezuela's opposition called for a fourth round of mass demonstrations at 11 am Caracas time today to demand recognition of its victory in the election that happened exactly one month ago. •Pres. Maduro refuses to give up his claim that he won the vote - and also refuses to provide proof. Meanwhile, the opposition has offered online tallies confirming its candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez, won more than twice as many votes as Maduro (a figure aligned with exit polls). •Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado attended the first three major rallies of the past month, and will likely participate today too - despite the threat of being arrested and locked up alongside thousands of Venezuelans that Maduro's goons have detained for infractions as minor as questioning election results on social media. •Separately, Maduro introduced "profound" changes to his cabinet last night. He shuffled about half of his ministers, but in a way that won't meaningfully affect policy: he rewarded diehard loyalists like VP Delcy Rodriguez and PSUV party leader Diosdado Cabello with expanded roles, and rotated some other allies between key positions. Iran •Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, revived long-shot hopes for new nuclear talks with the U.S. by telling his civilian government - now led by reformist president Masoud Pezeshkian - that there's "no harm" in engaging the "enemy." •Analysts interpreted Khamenei's cautious remarks as hesitant approval for Pezeshkian to proceed with early talks - but under strict red lines drawn out of distrust for "the Great Satan" (as Khamenei and his predecessor dub the U.S. - the UK and Israel are both "Little Satans"). Israel and Gaza •Israeli security forces conducted a significant drone and ground "counter-terrorism operation" in the West Bank, killing at least nine. It was one of the biggest West Bank operations in recent years. •There are conflicting reports about the circumstances of Israel's hostage rescue this week. A military spokesman said "precise intelligence" led commandos to Farhan al Qadi's location in a deep underground tunnel, but anonymous Israeli officials told the media that soldiers unexpectedly stumbled upon al Qadi - weak and unguarded - in the midst of a separate tunnel operation. Ukraine •Pres. Zelensky said he was open to discussing an armistice - first with Pres. Biden and VP Harris, and then with Russia. •Zelensky indicated that Ukraine's recent incursion into Kursk was part of a possible peace plan he's angling for: Ukrainian forces captured both troops and territory that can be traded back to Russia - for a price. Yemen •The Sounion tanker Yemen's Houthis set ablaze last week may be leaking some of the 1 million barrels of oil it was carrying. The Houthis have continued to intimidate and target salvage operations, prohibiting rescuers from examining the situation. China •Earlier today, leaders of Pacific Island nations approved an Australia-backed plan to establish four regional police training centers and a multinational force to respond to regional crises. •China opposed the plan and advocated against it: Beijing wants island nations to rely on it - and not Australia or its Western allies - for security. DRC •In July, Gecamines - a DRC mining parastatal - objected to the proposed sale of Chemaf's copper-cobalt mines to China's Norin Mining on the grounds that the transaction would be a "flagrant violation of the clauses of the farm-out contract between Gecamines and Chemaf" - i.e., it would recalibrate the royalties Gecamines gets from the Etoile and Mutoshi projects for doing nothing. •DRC's ministers are now standing behind Gecamines: Mines Minister Kizito Pakabomba also said the deal breached Chemaf's agreements with Gecamines, and on Friday the full council of ministers recommended blocking the sale.
Open source reportOff Leash update 28 June Iran •Polls opened in Iran's election to choose a successor to Pres. Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash last month. •Many young Iranians are unenthused about the candidates the conservative clerics approved for them to choose from and plan to sit out the vote. •With support split between three candidates - two conservatives and the sole moderate running - the poll will likely go to a runoff on July 5. Ukraine •NATO and Western officials estimated that Russia suffered an average of 1,000 casualties (killed or wounded) per day in May, after sending wave after wave of infantry troops towards well-defended Ukrainian front lines in the north and east. •The NYT noted that Russia is also recruiting 25,000 to 30,000 new soldiers per month, though - so its net force strength in Ukraine remains roughly flat. •I'm amazed Russia is still able to recruit so much fresh meat to send into these meat grinder battles. It's drawing heavily on Russian mercenaries previously working in Africa, and also offering handsome (but apparently also sustainable) financial incentives for new joiners. North Korea •State media claimed that North Korea successfully tested a missile payload capable of delivering multiple nuclear warheads to separate targets. •The new system - called "multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle" or MIRV, for short - is a significant advance that raises the threat level for North Korea's adversaries: it's much harder to intercept multiple projectiles (including decoys) than it is to target just one midair. China •China expelled two former Defense Ministers - Li Shangfu and Wei Fenghe - from the Communist Party for alleged corruption. •Li was removed from his post last October with no public explanation as to why; this is the first official confirmation that his removal - and subsequent disappearance - was related to graft allegations. •State media are now reporting that he "seriously violated" party principles by seeking "personal benefits" from his position and both receiving and paying "huge sums of money" in bribes. Israel and Gaza •The U.S. is preparing to release the big bombs that it temporarily withheld from Israel over concerns they would be used in crowded parts of Rafah. •Despite PM Netanyahu's complaints that the U.S. was withholding arms on a broader scale, these were the only arms withheld - and they'll now be released. [Some other shipments have been delayed due to bureaucratic issues, but Pentagon officials insist those delays weren't intentional or political.] DRC •China's Norin Mining agreed to buy struggling Congolese cobalt miner Chemaf for an undisclosed amount. •Norin plans to invest in developing Chemaf's Etoile Phase 2 and Mutoshi mines, which Chemaf couldn't afford to continue building out because of big debts to its trading partner, Trafigura. •China already controls about 70% of global cobalt processing capacity, so the vertical integration of mining companies will help expand its control of the supply chain. Yemen •Yemen's Houthi rebels improbably claimed to have independently developed a hypersonic missile, the Hadim 2, that they used to target a cargo ship in the Arabian Sea earlier this week. •There were indeed reports of an attempted missile attack that missed its target this week, but no indications that the missile was the solid-fuel hypersonic technology the Houthis claimed it to be. Hypersonic missiles are hard to develop without significant support from a technology partner (say, Iran, for example).
Open source reportOff Leash Update 13 June Ukraine •G7 leaders are reportedly close to agreeing on a compromise that would lend Ukraine around $50 billion now to rebuild destroyed infrastructure - and repay the loan over time using interest from frozen Russian funds. Ukraine will need much more than $50 billion to rebuild. •As part of its fundraising efforts, Ukraine announced a new plan to auction off around 20 state-owned companies - including the landmark Hotel Ukraine in Kyiv, as well as some mining and chemical companies. The proceeds would plug some of the gaping hole in Ukraine's budget. Russia •Russia responded to new U.S. sanctions by announcing an immediate ban on trading in dollars or euros on its main bourse, the Moscow Exchange (MOEX). •The ban won't really matter because most MOEX traders have already switched from dollars or euros to Chinese yuan. As one Russian commodities trader told Reuters: "We don't care [about the ban], we have yuan. Getting dollars and euros in Russia is practically impossible." •Meanwhile, four Russian navy vessels arrived in Havana harbour, in what the BBC called "a show of force amid tensions with the West over the war in Ukraine." Cuban officials were quick to clarify that none of the boats have any weapons aboard. The U.S. is monitoring them anyway. China •After an EU investigation concluded that government subsidies give Chinese electric vehicle (EV) makers an unfair competitive advantage over European manufacturers, the EU proposed a plan to level the playing field by imposing new tariffs of up to 38% on cheap Chinese EV imports. •China decried the EU's decision and urged the bloc to reverse its "wrong direction" on tariffs, but the reality is that Chinese EVs are so much cheaper than EU competitors that even a 38% tariff won't make up the difference: in 1H 2023, the average retail price of a Chinese EV was $33,000 vs. $70,700 in Europe. •[U.S. 1H 2023 EV prices were roughly in line with the EU's at $72,000, and the U.S. has since slapped a stiffer, 100% tariff on imported Chinese EVs.] Yemen •Yemen's Houthis used a "drone boat" - along with aerial drones and ballistic missiles - to attack a Liberian-flagged, Greek-owned bulk carrier, the Tutor. The Tutor's captain later reported that "the vessel is taking on water, and not under command of the crew" after a second impact. DRC •DRC's new government - including its first-ever female prime minister - was sworn in yesterday after months of delays due to disagreements over appointments. South Africa •South Africa's top court rejected an appeal by ex-Pres. Zuma's new MK party that sought to stop Zuma's former African National Congress (ANC) party - and his political rival, Pres. Ramaphosa - from forming a government. •According to preliminary indications, the Democratic Alliance (DA) and Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) have already agreed to join the ANC's national unity government, bringing it over the majority it needed. •That government is expected to re-elect Pres. Ramaphosa tomorrow. Other News •The NYT reported that Saudi Arabia is on the verge of approving a plan to invest up to $2 billion in a hostile takeover of the disorganized array of global professional men's boxing promoters and sanctioning bodies. •The consultant-advised plan would see today's confused tangle of boxing organizations brought together under a single entity representing around 200 top male boxers in a model similar to that of the UFC, which has steadily stolen fightsport fans away from boxing.
Open source reportThe Houthis claimed to have disrupted an U.S.-Israeli spy network after detaining about 12 UN personnel and employees of the U.S.-funded National Democratic Institute.
Open source reportThe Houthis conducted a drone strike against the Portuguese-flagged container ship MSC Orion about 375 miles off Yemen. Minor damage; the vessel continued its voyage.
Open source reportConstruction of a Gaza aid pier, Haiti’s political transition, a planned U.S. troop withdrawal from Chad and a Red Sea interception.
Open source report