U.S.-Ukraine minerals pact leads wide-ranging security update

Off Leash update 1 May 2025

UKRAINE •Ukraine and the U.S. finally signed a mineral revenue-sharing agreement after months of negotiations - and an Oval Office debacle that derailed the first attempt at signing. •Neither side has elaborated on the terms of this agreement except to confirm that it establishes a joint investment fund that will share Ukraine's future mineral revenues between the U.S. and Ukraine. •In any case, the fact that Presidents Trump and Zelensky moved past their Oval Office blowup and signed something is perhaps more important than the precise details of the deal they signed.

SYRIA •Israel carried out drone strikes near the predominantly Druze village of Sahnaya, Syria (near Damascus) and - uncharacteristically - officially acknowledged responsibility for the strikes. •Israel justified its incursion as a retaliatory "warning operation" against an "extremist group" preparing to attack members of the Druze community - a religious minority with adherents in Syria, Lebanon, and Israel that Israel has vowed to stand up for. •Syrian Druze on the outskirts of Damascus have indeed been embroiled in violence this week. The clashes began Tuesday, when an offensive audio recording cursing the Prophet Mohammad went viral - along with a rumor that it was recorded by a Druze sheikh. That enraged dogmatic Sunnis, who lashed out at Druze communities in revenge. •Israel's aerial intervention wasn't just about defending the Druze minority, though. It also served as a warning to Syria's new government that Israel doesn't trust interim president Ahmed Al Sharaa - a former Sunni jihadist - to protect the Druze minority in Syria. Israel reiterated that point in "a message [that] was passed on to the Syrian regime - Israel expects them to prevent harm to the Druze." •Al Sharaa's government complained about the incursion in a fairly polite statement rejecting "all forms of foreign intervention" (but not explicitly mentioning Israel or its strikes) and reiterating its commitment to protecting all Syrian groups, "including the noble Druze sect."

YEMEN •British Typhoon fighters joined U.S. jets for a joint operation against a Houthi drone factory near Sanaa. It was the first time since Pres. Trump took office - or since he ramped up anti-Houthi strikes under "Operation Rough Rider" starting in March - that the UK has participated in U.S. operations in Yemen.

MOZAMBIQUE •French energy giant Total said it aims to resume construction of its giant LNG plant in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique by mid-year. •Construction was derailed in 2017 because of an Islamist insurgency that targeted government forces and foreign assets, but Total insists the plant site is now "completely secure" and project financing is "back on track."

DRC •DRC's Attorney General asked the Senate to strip ex-President Kabila of his immunity for his alleged involvement in "war crimes, crimes against humanity and massacres of peaceful civilians and military personnel." •Pres. Tshisekedi's government believes Kabila is behind the Rwandan and Ugandan incursions that have destabilized eastern DRC in recent months, and Tshisekedi sees Kabila as a threat to his presidency. •Kabila denies all charges, but has yet to explain why he chose now to return from self-imposed exile in South Africa to Rwanda-controlled Goma.

SAHEL •A national conference of Mali's political figures backed the junta's proposal to appoint coup leader Assimi Goïta as interim president, with a five-year term. Key opposition figures boycotted the conference and objected to its move to legitimize Goïta's second attempt at the presidency. •Goïta's first attempt at becoming president failed in 2020 when regional bloc ECOWAS insisted on installing a civilian leader, so Goïta staged another coup in 2021. He was only a colonel then, but has since promoted himself to five-star general. 1/2