Off Leash Intel · loading
12 direct mentions across 12 briefings, with 12 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
Doubt remains over that the promise of talks will satisfy Tshisekedi's critics while their allegation that he is pursuing a constitutional maneuver to remain in office continues unresolved.
Assessment development · updated through
Doubt remains over that the promise of talks will satisfy Tshisekedi's critics while their allegation that he is pursuing a constitutional maneuver to remain in office continues unresolved.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Félix Tshisekedi dossier
11 mapped developments across 1 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Democratic Republic of the Congo
President Félix Tshisekedi appointed former planning minister Judith Suminwa Tuluka as the DRC’s first female prime minister, with restoring peace in the country’s east among her challenges.
Approximate map position: country centroid. The extracted place did not have provider-resolved coordinates.
Chronology
Off Leash update 22 July 2026 UKRAINE •Pres. Zelensky heeded protesters' calls and fired his top general, Oleksandr Syrskyi. •Syrskyi had clashed with ex-defense minister Mykhailo Federov over Federov's innovative (and, Syrskyi would say, disruptive) approach to war, and Syrskyi appeared to prevail when Federov was sacked last week. •The decision to fire Federov proved deeply unpopular with Ukrainians who credit his drone program with turning the tide of the war in Ukraine's favor. Tens of thousands turned out for rare street protests calling for Federov's reinstatement and Syrskyi's removal, with slogans like "Fedorov is innovation, old grandpas are degeneration." •They got their wish regarding Syrskyi's removal, but betting markets are placing only a 45% (but rising) chance on Federov being reinstated this week. Federov clashed with other members of the old guard besides Syrskyi, and reinstating him would build resentment among Syrskyi's supporters. •That may be a price Pres. Zelensky is willing to pay to continue the momentum that Federov's drones won for Ukraine. Zelensky appointed a Federov ally as Syrskyi's replacement and promised to reinstate Federov in a "prominent position." Federov has said he wouldn't settle for any position ranking lower than his previous post. SAUDI ARABIA •The U.S. plans to announce a deal to allow Saudi Arabia to build a civilian nuclear program imminently. •That won't sit well with Israel, which is perpetually concerned about its Arab neighbors using a civilian nuclear program as a stepping stone to developing nuclear weapons. •Moreover, many in Israel see today's U.S.-Saudi deal as a snub to Israel, which - before the Oct. 7 attacks - reportedly hoped to trade its approval of a Saudi civilian nuclear program for Saudi diplomatic recognition. This deal forces Israel to concede its side of that trade for nothing in return. INDIA •India's youth-led protests for education reform risk spilling over into a broader movement criticizing Prime Minister Modi's government for its treatment of demonstrators. •Opposition leader Rahul Gandhi joined in the criticism of Modi's government, and was arrested after staging a sit-in outside Modi's house and calling for Modi's removal over police brutality against protesters. •Meanwhile, Modi's education minister - who was the main target of frustrated demonstrators - has barely addressed calls for exam reforms, saying only that he was "committed" to improvements. The protesters want him out. DRC •DRC's Pres. Tshisekedi acquiesced to the opposition's demands for an inclusive national dialogue under the oversight of the religious leaders who joined him in the room for his announcement. •Seemingly appeased, opposition parties duly cancelled the protest they'd scheduled for today. To me, it seems strange that Tshisekedi's critics would be satisfied with the mere promise of talks while their chief grievance - Tshisekedi's "constitutional coup" to remain in power beyond his term - is still moving forward. SOCIAL MEDIA •France became the first European country to pass a social media age ban, with a new law restricting youths under 15 from accessing social media - or using cell phones in school - after classes resume in the fall. Somewhat ironically, Pres. Macron announced the new social media ban on social media. •Australia was the first country to impose a social media ban for youth, and its ban hasn't been a resounding success. Early studies show that 85% of Australian teens under 16 were still using restricted social media platforms six months after they were ostensibly banned from them (the ban at least inspired some creativity: many teens reported using clever tricks like fake moustaches to skirt the ban). •France's ban seems equally unlikely to work.
Open source reportOff Leash update 11 June 2026 IRAN •The U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes again overnight, and Pres. Trump threatened to continue to hit Iran "hard" today because its leaders were taking "too long to negotiate." Iran's Pres. Pezeshkian retorted that Iran "will stand firm against any pressure or threat." •The U.S. also fired on the Settebello, an Indian-crewed oil tanker that had allegedly "violated the ongoing blockade by attempting to transport oil from Iran." Three Indian sailors are missing and 21 others were rescued following the strike. •Iran says the Strait of Hormuz is "completely closed" and claims it is actively targeting ships that try to defy its blockade. •U.S. officials don't consider the Strait closed: Pres. Trump says U.S. vessels have helped tankers carrying a cumulative total of 100 million barrels of oil through the Strait. •Experts suggest around two million barrels of oil are leaking through the Strait per day, which is around one-seventh the pre-war volume that passed through daily but still a decent rate. That's perhaps why oil prices have remained lower than analysts thought they'd be after a prolonged blockade. NORTHERN IRELAND •A stabbing attack blamed on a Sudanese-born man ignited anti-immigrant riots and racist retaliation in Belfast. •Police are using baton rounds and water cannons in an effort to restrain an angry minority" that used the stabbing as an excuse to engage in opportunistic racist violence and arson. SOUTH AFRICA •Anti-immigrant campaigners called for all undocumented immigrants in South Africa to leave the country by June 30, and - unsettled by the memory of the attacks that followed similar prior eviction notices - thousands are heeding the call to return home. •Nigerians are the largest contingent of undocumented immigrants in South Africa, comprising around a quarter of the estimated 2.2 million total. Around 1,000 have voluntarily returned to Nigeria. RUSSIA •A senior Russian military officer (whose name has yet to be released) was killed by a car bomb outside Moscow on Tuesday. Ukrainian agents or sympathizers were likely responsible, but Ukraine declined to comment on the incident. DRC •DRC's National Assembly quietly passed a bill that paves the way for a referendum to alter the constitution so Pres. Tshisekedi can run for a third term. Lacking the numbers to block the measure from passing, the opposition boycotted the vote in protest.
Open source reportOff Leash update 1 May MALI •Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) called on "all sincere patriots, without exception" to join its efforts to overthrow Mali's military government under Col. Assimi Goita. •JNIM and its allies have imposed a blockade of Bamako, and residents of the capital are already feeling the squeeze. Food prices rose 45% in the past few days as militant checkpoints restricted 70% of commercial transit routes into the city. •Goita's government will struggle to weather the storm, and the odds of a fresh coup are high and rising. UKRAINE •After much Ukrainian lobbying, Israel refused to unload a vessel carrying grain that Kyiv claims Russia stole from occupied Ukrainian territories. •The Panama-flagged Panormitis is reportedly now seeking another buyer for its cargo, but Ukraine will make that difficult. •Kyiv is on a mission to target Russia's "shadow grain fleet," which it claims has exported 850,000 tons of stolen Ukrainian grain on 50 different voyages between January and April. DRC •The U.S. Treasury slapped sanctions on former Congolese President Joseph Kabila for his alleged support of the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels stoking conflict in eastern DRC. •Pres. Tshisekedi's government in Kinshasa - which sentenced Kabila to death in absentia in a military trial last year - welcomed the move. •Kabila hasn't publically commented yet, but will probably accuse Washington of helping Tshisekedi carry out a vendetta against a political rival. • He should return all the DRC resources he stole while President and he wouldn't have to worry so much about the justice that will visit him. MYANMAR •Myanmar's military government said it had moved Aung San Suu Kyi - the civilian leader it ousted in 2021 - from prison to house arrest in a performative gesture of amnesty aimed at bolstering the repressive junta's global legitimacy. •The junta said it had also generously shortened her sentence by 4.5 years, meaning the now-80 year old will be freed when she's 99 instead of 102 (assuming she lives that long and they don't slap new charges on her). •Emerging reports suggest Aung San Suu Kyi has actually been under house arrest for around 18 months already, but the junta waited until China's foreign minister intervened to announce the move and claim credit for its "benevolence." •It has been less benevolent towards the other 22,000 political prisoners that rights groups think it holds. VENEZUELA •Venezuela's interim president, Delcy Rodriguez, announced a public sector minimum wage hike of 26% to $240 per month and a pension raise to $70 per month, which she said was still "not enough." •It's not clear how her government will pay the higher rates. It has struggled to pay the previous, much-lower rates in recent months, and the shortfall is what triggered the protests that forced her to promise higher wages and pensions.
Open source reportOff Leash update 30March COMING UP THIS WEEK •Wednesday is April Fools' Day and - perhaps relatedly - Edible Book Day. •It's also the 50th anniversary of Steve Jobs and Stephen Wozniak founding Apple Computers. •This is Holy Week for western Christians. Friday is Good Friday (U.S. and EU markets are closed), followed by Easter on Sunday. EU markets are also closed for Easter Monday next week. •OPEC+ producers - Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Oman - meet Sunday to set output targets for May. COMMODITY AND COIN MARKET PRICES •Aluminum: $3,296/ton •Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton •Bitcoin: $67,471 •Cobalt: $56,290/ton •Copper: $12,195/ton •Ethereum: $2,065 •Gold: $4,542/toz •Lead: $1,897/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.94/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $100.92/barrel •Zinc: $3,115/ton IRAN •Pres. Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, said he was "hopeful" that negotiations will start this week, and Pakistan said it's preparing to host peace talks. •But while Trump hints at ongoing contact with Iran's "much more reasonable" new leaders, he's simultaneously fueling rumors that he'll abandon talks and "take the oil in Iran" - perhaps by seizing its Kharg Island fuel hub. •Having twice been bombed between rounds of ongoing negotiations, Iran is wary. Its parliament speaker accused the U.S. of "secretly planning a ground invasion" and warned that U.S. troops on the ground inside Iran will be "set on fire." •Israel struck two Iranian nuclear facilities that Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, insists were civilian infrastructure. Araghchi threatened to "exact a heavy price" in retaliation, and Iran later struck a chemical plant in southern Israel. •The war is unpopular in the U.S., where an Economist / YouGov poll found only 36% of respondents approve of how Trump is pursuing it. YEMEN •Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels joined their benefactor's war by resuming missile launches towards Israel for the first time since the U.S. and Israel began striking Iran a month ago. •Israel easily intercepted the incoming Houthi missile, and analysts seem unconcerned that the Houthi's entry into the war will shift its course. That's partly because the Houthis' firepower comes from Iran, and Iran can't afford to divert part of its depleting arsenal just so the Houthis can fire at the same enemy from a different angle. •The Houthis also seem to be refraining from targeting Red Sea shipping, as they did from 2023 until a ceasefire in May 2025. One Chatham House analyst surmised that they hope that Saudi Arabia will reward their restraint with cash. But others suggest the rebels are growing frustrated that Saudi aid hasn't materialized and may abandon their restraint. DRC •Ex-Congolese President Joseph Kabila gave his first major interview in eight years to the NYT. •In the extensive conversation, he hinted that he helped rig the 2018 election to fulfil a power-sharing "agreement" he had struck with his successor, Felix Tshisekedi, with whom he has since spectacularly fallen out. •Kabila now accuses Tshisekedi of trying to assassinate him in a drone strike on Goma earlier this month and slammed "Tshisekedi’s tyranny," warning of the "Sudanization" of DRC - i.e., of political dispute that descends into open conflict. •For its part, Tshisekedi's government accuses Kabila of leading the Rwanda-backed M23 rebellion in the east and has convicted him of treason and sentenced him to death in a trial that Human Rights Watch called "blatantly unfair." •Kabila is now back in DRC, in M23-controlled Goma. When the NYT asked him if he wanted to rule DRC again, he ominously demurred.
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 Dec VENEZUELA •Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Corina Machado was expected to accept her award in person in Norway yesterday, but she never showed up. •A Nobel official told media that Machado was "unfortunately not in Norway." That would seem to suggest she's still in Venezuela, since the hardest part of her trip would've been escaping the authoritarian regime that has banned her from traveling abroad for the past 10 years. •Separately, two U.S. F/A-18 fighter jets circled the Gulf of Venezuela for about 40 minutes yesterday, marking the closest that U.S. military aircraft have come to Venezuelan airspace since Operation Southern Sentinel began in September. •A U.S. military official said the flights were not intended to be provocative, but Nicolas Maduro's government will surely feel threatened by the proximity of U.S. jets to Venezuela's richest oil regions. DRC •Rwanda-backed (and Rwanda-armed) M23 rebels advanced toward Uvira, which is the last major city in eastern DRC that's still under Kinshasa's control. •Around 200,000 civilians have already fled the latest round of fighting - most of which has taken place after DRC and Rwanda signed a U.S.-brokered ceasefire at the White House. •DRC's Pres. Tshisekedi explicitly blamed his Rwandan counterpart, Pres. Kagame, for the ongoing conflict: "This is a proxy war aimed at challenging our sovereignty over a highly strategic area, rich in critical minerals and economic potential that is crucial to the future of our nation." •Rwanda counter-accused DRC and Burundi of violating the truce, too, but DRC and Burundi are not sending troops SAM systems, laser guided anti tank weapons, EW jamming systems and armed drones into Rwanda like Rwanda is into DRC. •Separately, Glencore became the first company to export cobalt from DRC under the country's new quota framework. •Glencore has only exported a small test batch of cobalt and is still sitting on a massive stockpile of cobalt that it mined as a byproduct of copper extraction during the export ban and as it deciphered the new, post-ban rules. •Its cautious small test shipment - and the fact that other miners continue to stockpile instead of even testing exporting - suggests the new rules remain opaque and hard to comply with. THAILAND AND CAMBODIA •Thai and Cambodian troops continued to clash along their shared border, sending hundreds of thousands of civilians fleeing to shelters they hadn't bothered to deconstruct after the last bout of skirmishes subsided in July (which perhaps offers some insight into the low confidence the local population placed in that truce's staying power). •Both sides continue to blame the other and insist they're only acting in self defense against the other's aggressions. •So far, the casualty count has remained fairly low compared to the escalating rhetoric: Cambodia says intruding Thai soldiers have killed just six civilians this week. •Pres. Trump - who was present when Thailand and Cambodia formalized their truce in October - said he'd "have to make a phone call" today to try to revive the ceasefire. CHINA •Pres. Trump said he would allow semiconductor giant Nvidia to export its H200 chips to "approved customers" in China who will use them to develop artificial intelligence models. •The H200 is a generation behind Nvidia's latest chips, which is probably part of why Trump felt comfortable sharing it with China. (China hawks have successfully lobbied to bar Chinese companies from using the latest U.S. chip tech.) •Another factor behind Trump's decision could be the 25% royalty the U.S. government will reportedly collect on H200 sales to Chinese customers. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 7 August UKRAINE •U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff met Pres. Putin in Moscow this week, and Pres. Trump said Witkoff made "great progress" nudging Putin towards a Ukraine ceasefire deal he could agree to. •Next, Trump and Putin plan to meet in the coming days to continue where Witkoff left off. •Trilateral talks between Presidents Trump, Putin, and Zelensky could follow - though it's unclear whether either Putin or Zelensky has agreed to participate yet. DRC •UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk dashed hopes for the ceasefire DRC signed with Rwanda-backed M23 rebels on June 19 with a new report suggesting the M23 defied the truce and instead escalated its violence in North Kivu in July. The UN counted at least 319 civilian deaths from M23 massacres between July 9 and 21. •Presidents Tshisekedi and Kagame are still due to meet in the coming months to agree on the details of their fraying truce. IRAN •Iran closed government offices in half its provinces yesterday to save water and electricity amidst an ongoing dual shortage exacerbated by five years of drought and soaring temperatures. •Tehran is particularly affected, with water pressure halved or worse in 80% of its households. Authorities are encouraging residents to wait out the latest heatwave elsewhere to prolong what little water remains in the reservoirs feeding the capital, but they fear taps could run dry within weeks. SUDAN •State media reported that Sudan's air force blew up an Emirati plane carrying 40 alleged Colombian mercenaries as it landed at Darfur's Nyala airport, which is controlled by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) fighting the army. •Sudan (credibly) accuses the UAE of supplying the RSF with weapons and mercenaries, and says Nyala airport is the main entry point for both. •Colombia's Pres. Petro seemed to acknowledge reports of Colombian mercenaries fighting alongside the RSF, but has made his distaste for it clear. After yesterday's report that Colombian fighters were aboard the Nyala-bound plane, Petro called for a ban on mercenary activity. GHANA •A helicopter crash killed Ghana's Ministers of Defense and Environment - as well as eight other officials - en route to a conference on illegal mining. There are no reports of foul play yet. TRADE •New U.S. tariffs on imports from around 90 countries came into effect at midnight this morning. •In addition, Pres. Trump threatened to impose a new, 100% tariff on semiconductor imports to the U.S. - but with a key loophole exempting companies that pledge new investment in the U.S.
Open source reportOff Leash update 19 June IRAN •Iran's Ayatollah Khamenei bluntly rejected Pres. Trump's call for "unconditional surrender," and instead threatened "irreparable" harm to the U.S. if it joins the fray. Despite Khamenei's fiery rhetoric, Iran's cooler-headed diplomats still insist that Tehran remains open to negotiations with the U.S. •Trump remained vague about whether the U.S. would, indeed, accede to Israel's request to join its side of the conflict, leaving the door open to negotiations: "I like to make a final decision one second before it’s due, you know, because things change." [The WSJ reported that Trump privately approved plans to attack Iran but is waiting to see if Iran offers to return to the nuclear negotiating table before he gives his final approval to attack.] •According to media reports, Israel particularly wants the U.S.'s help - as well as its 30,000-lb. bunker-buster bombs and B-2 bombers to drop them from - to destroy Iran's underground nuclear facility at Fordow. Israel has neither strong enough bombs nor bombers to carry them; U.S. has both within range of Iran. •Doves opposed to U.S. involvement are invoking memories of ill-fated U.S. interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan to advocate against joining. INDIA •India's Pres. Modi met new Canadian Prime Minister Carney on the sidelines of the G7 summit Carney hosted this week. •Modi and Carney agreed to restart trade talks and restore diplomatic representation and visa processing, which is a step towards repairing the damage their bilateral relationship suffered when Canada accused India's government of backing the assassination of Sikh cleric Hardeep Singh Nijjar near Vancouver two years ago. •The very next day, Canadian intelligence published a report calling India a perpetrator of foreign influence for its involvement in Najjar's assassination - and dozens of other alleged plots the Royal Canadian Mounted Police have disrupted against Sikhs in Canada. [The report seems like a compromise to Canadian Sikhs who were angry that Carney would rekindle relations with a government that violated its sovereignty to carry out assassinations; India blew off the criticism and it didn't seem to hurt fragile-but-improving bilateral relations.] DRC •Rwandan and Congolese technical teams are busy drafting a peace agreement to end fighting in eastern DRC, and Presidents Kagame and Tshisekedi are slated to sign the truce next Friday (June 27). •Prior ceasefires have fallen through quickly - some before they were even signed - but the outlook this version seems better, given new U.S. pressure to end fighting and pacify the mineral-rich region for investment.
Open source reportOff Leash update 27 May GAZA •Al Jazeera reported that Hamas agreed to a ceasefire proposal suggested by U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, but Witkoff quickly dashed hopes for a quick truce when he told Reuters that the proposal Hamas accepted was not his, but was instead a "disappointing and completely unacceptable" plan of Hamas's own creation. •An Israeli official corroborated Witkoff's disavowal of the proposal that Hamas accepted and said no Israeli government could accept its terms - which reportedly called for the release of 10 living Israeli hostages in two groups, in exchange for a 60- or 70-day ceasefire, a partial Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and the release of a number of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails. •Witkoff's latest proposal - which is still on the table - reportedly differs from the one Hamas accepted on several key points, including the timing and sequence of hostage releases. NORTH KOREA •North Korea has arrested three shipyard officials over last week's botched destroyer launch, which left Kim Jong Un fuming and the 5,000-ton warship partially submerged sideways. •Western analysts studying the bungled launch attributed its failure to "pointed to a lack of experience, as well as political pressure from Mr. Kim for quick results." •In particular, the shipyard that constructed the ill-fated 470-foot (143-meter) vessel had no experience building ships that large, and was forced to launch this first attempt the risky way - sideways - because it doesn't have a big enough dry dock to launch by flotation or an incline wide enough for a stern-first launch. VENEZUELA •Guyana's vice president, Bharrat Jagdeo, rejected propaganda videos his Venezuelan counterpart, Delcy Rodrigues, shared purporting to show Guyanese citizens boarding a boat to cross the Essequibo River to vote in Sunday's Venezuelan regional elections: "It is dishonest and a sign of desperation when the vice-president of Venezuela has to use a fake video to support false claims that people were crossing the border to vote in the elections." •The 125,000 Guyanese who live in Essequibo did not, in fact, cross the river to vote in Sunday's election. Rather, the 21,403 voters who chose representatives for the disputed region - which the newly elected officials cannot access and don't control - came from a specially-created sliver of Bolivar state on the Venezuelan side of the river. It's telling that all 14 representatives they choose came from Pres. Maduro's ruling party. DRC •Amnesty International accused the M23 - and, implicitly, the Rwandan army that controls it - of violating international humanitarian law by torturing, disappearing, and killing detainees in Goma and Bukavu. •Citing interviews with former detainees, Amnesty said the violations it documented "may amount to war crimes," and called on "regional and international actors [to] pressure Rwanda to cease its support for M23." •Meanwhile, M23 confirmed yesterday that former Congolese president Joseph Kabila has arrived in Goma. [Some suggest Kabila has been in Goma for weeks, but this is the first clear confirmation of his return.] •The confirmation of Kabila's return will unnerve Pres. Tshisekedi's government, which lifted Kabila's lifelong immunity last week and plans to prosecute him for backing Rwanda's invasion and (allegedly) encouraging a coup to topple Tshisekedi. CARS •A German court convicted four former Volkswagen executives of fraud for their roles in the Dieselgate scandal, in which over 11 million Volkswagen diesel cars were installed with "defeat devices" that helped them illegally cheat diesel-efficiency tests by reducing emissions by up to 40-fold when a car recognized it was being tested. •Though ignobly motivated, the scandal helped accelerate a shift from high-pollutin' diesel cars to electric vehicles. In Europe alone, diesel's market share went from over half in 2015 to under 10% today.
Open source reportOff Leash update 1 May 2025 UKRAINE •Ukraine and the U.S. finally signed a mineral revenue-sharing agreement after months of negotiations - and an Oval Office debacle that derailed the first attempt at signing. •Neither side has elaborated on the terms of this agreement except to confirm that it establishes a joint investment fund that will share Ukraine's future mineral revenues between the U.S. and Ukraine. •In any case, the fact that Presidents Trump and Zelensky moved past their Oval Office blowup and signed something is perhaps more important than the precise details of the deal they signed. SYRIA •Israel carried out drone strikes near the predominantly Druze village of Sahnaya, Syria (near Damascus) and - uncharacteristically - officially acknowledged responsibility for the strikes. •Israel justified its incursion as a retaliatory "warning operation" against an "extremist group" preparing to attack members of the Druze community - a religious minority with adherents in Syria, Lebanon, and Israel that Israel has vowed to stand up for. •Syrian Druze on the outskirts of Damascus have indeed been embroiled in violence this week. The clashes began Tuesday, when an offensive audio recording cursing the Prophet Mohammad went viral - along with a rumor that it was recorded by a Druze sheikh. That enraged dogmatic Sunnis, who lashed out at Druze communities in revenge. •Israel's aerial intervention wasn't just about defending the Druze minority, though. It also served as a warning to Syria's new government that Israel doesn't trust interim president Ahmed Al Sharaa - a former Sunni jihadist - to protect the Druze minority in Syria. Israel reiterated that point in "a message [that] was passed on to the Syrian regime - Israel expects them to prevent harm to the Druze." •Al Sharaa's government complained about the incursion in a fairly polite statement rejecting "all forms of foreign intervention" (but not explicitly mentioning Israel or its strikes) and reiterating its commitment to protecting all Syrian groups, "including the noble Druze sect." YEMEN •British Typhoon fighters joined U.S. jets for a joint operation against a Houthi drone factory near Sanaa. It was the first time since Pres. Trump took office - or since he ramped up anti-Houthi strikes under "Operation Rough Rider" starting in March - that the UK has participated in U.S. operations in Yemen. MOZAMBIQUE •French energy giant Total said it aims to resume construction of its giant LNG plant in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique by mid-year. •Construction was derailed in 2017 because of an Islamist insurgency that targeted government forces and foreign assets, but Total insists the plant site is now "completely secure" and project financing is "back on track." DRC •DRC's Attorney General asked the Senate to strip ex-President Kabila of his immunity for his alleged involvement in "war crimes, crimes against humanity and massacres of peaceful civilians and military personnel." •Pres. Tshisekedi's government believes Kabila is behind the Rwandan and Ugandan incursions that have destabilized eastern DRC in recent months, and Tshisekedi sees Kabila as a threat to his presidency. •Kabila denies all charges, but has yet to explain why he chose now to return from self-imposed exile in South Africa to Rwanda-controlled Goma. SAHEL •A national conference of Mali's political figures backed the junta's proposal to appoint coup leader Assimi Goïta as interim president, with a five-year term. Key opposition figures boycotted the conference and objected to its move to legitimize Goïta's second attempt at the presidency. •Goïta's first attempt at becoming president failed in 2020 when regional bloc ECOWAS insisted on installing a civilian leader, so Goïta staged another coup in 2021. He was only a colonel then, but has since promoted himself to five-star general. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 24 March 2025 COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,623/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,450/ton •Cobalt: $33,610/ton •Copper: $9,856/ton •Gold: $3,029/toz •Lead: $2,017/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.94/MMbtu •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $68.18/barrel •Zinc: $2,928/ton UKRAINE •Ukrainian and U.S. officials met in Riyadh yesterday, and may continue their summit today. They aim to finalize details surrounding the 30-day pause on striking energy infrastructure. •U.S. officials in Riyadh will also meet with Russian officials today. Russia has already agreed to the pause on energy infrastructure strikes, so these meetings will seek to advance an additional maritime ceasefire. •China is reportedly considering contributing peacekeepers to uphold a post-war truce in Ukraine "in accordance with the wishes of the parties." Russia had previously rejected the idea of NATO peacekeepers in Ukraine, but would probably be more amenable if China participated in the mission. GAZA •U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff told Fox News Sunday that Hamas seemed to initially accept his bridge proposal to extend the Gaza ceasefire last week, but then reneged and rejected it. Witkoff blamed Hamas for the failure to find a truce and the descent to resumed fighting. •Israel targeted Hamas's prime minister in Gaza, Ismail Barhoum, killing him in a hospital where he was receiving treatment for injuries he sustained in another Israeli strike. Barhoum had only been prime minister for a few days after his predecessor was killed earlier in the week - also by an Israeli strike. •Hamas's health ministry said Gaza's wartime death toll has now surpassed 50,000. Hamas doesn't distinguish between dead civilians and combatants. •Israel's Security Cabinet inaugurated a new directorate to assist Palestinians who want to be resettled abroad, and the new directorate kicked off its mission by flying 70 Gazans with foreign citizenships or family ties to Europe, where they'll resettle. YEMEN •Yemen's Houthis fired a Palestine 2 ballistic missile in the general direction of Israel's Ben Gurion Airport, but it was easily intercepted before it reached Israeli airspace (despite Houthi claims that it reached its target). SUDAN •After seizing the presidential palace from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on Friday, Sudan's military continued to retake key sites in Khartoum. Over the weekend, it recaptured the Central Bank, the intelligence headquarters, and the Corinthia Hotel. •The army's recent success in Khartoum doesn't mean the war is over: the RSF still holds parts of the capital, as well as large swathes of western Sudan. DRC •Nearly a week after Presidents Tshisekedi and Kagame agreed on the necessity of imposing a ceasefire in eastern DRC, the leaders of the Rwanda-backed rebel umbrella group Alliance Fleuve Congo (which includes the M23) said it supported a truce and announced that its fighters would withdraw from the mining town of Walikale, which they captured the day after Tshisekedi and Kagame met in Doha. •Tshisekedi then kindly asked (but did not order) his troops to observe the ceasefire too. •Both sides seem skeptical of the truce and ready to resume fighting at any moment. Rwanda and the rebels it backs are not ceding Goma or their other major spoils of war, and the Congolese military warned that it "reserves the right to intervene in the event of any hostile movement likely to compromise the pause in fighting." 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 2 August Russia •After months of complex negotiations, Russia released sixteen prisoners - including wrongfully detained WSJ journalist Evan Gershkovich and former U.S. Marine Paul Whelan - in a swap that also saw Western countries release eight Russian prisoners - including very rightfully detained Russian assassin Vadim Krasikov, who was imprisoned in Germany for murdering a Chechen leader there. •The NYT noted that Pres. Putin "can use [Krasikov's release] to highlight his loyalty to Russian agents who get arrested abroad." Some analysts suggested he'll also use Krasikov to train new recruited hitmen to better evade capture. Ukraine •Ukraine received its first F-16 fighter jets on Wednesday - just before an end of month deadline for the initial transfer. These first jets came from Denmark and the Netherlands; it's not clear how many were in this first wave. Venezuela •U.S. SecState Blinken formally recognized Edmundo González as the winner of last week's disputed election in Venezuela, saying that "it is clear to the United States and, most importantly, to the Venezuelan people that Edmundo González Urrutia won the most votes in Venezuela’s July 28 presidential election." •Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado told the WSJ she's currently in hiding and "fearing for my life, my freedom" after Maduro allies called for her arrest and that of González, who ran in her place after she was barred from the ballot. North Korea •North Korea reported extensive damage from flooding in its northern regions bordering China. •Brushing off the recent swarms of "trash balloons" the North has floated over their shared border, South Korea offered to send humanitarian aid north to its bitter foe. If Kim Jong Un accepts the South's aid, it could lead to the first official talks between them in years. Israel •The NYT published new details on Israel's assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Apparently the explosive device that killed Haniyeh was smuggled into the guesthouse where he was killed months ago. •The blast was so targeted that it killed only Haniyeh and his bodyguard, and Ziyad al-Nakhalah - the leader of Palestinian Islamic Jihad who was sleeping next door - was unscathed with very little damage to his room. •Meanwhile, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah spoke at the funeral of a Hezbollah commander killed in another recent Israeli strike - this one in Beirut on Tuesday, just before the blast that killed Haniyeh in Tehran. •Nasrallah exercised restraint by not calling for prompt retaliation (as Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei did after the Tehran blast). Rather, he vaguely mentioned that the conflict with Israel had entered a "new phase" and warned Israel ominously but non-committally "You do not realize the red lines you have crossed." Hezbollah lobbed a few more rockets over the border. DRC •Ex-Pres. Kabila's wife, Olive Lembe Kabila, said that dozens of youth - reportedly linked to a militia with ties to the ruling Union for Democracy and Social Progress party - tried to break into their family home "to physically eliminate me" on Wednesday. •Mrs. Kabila blamed Tshisekedi and his government for relaxing security around their home to allow construction trucks to pass by. •There were also reports of heavy gunfire near important buildings like the Palais de la Nation, which houses Pres. Tshisekedi's offices, but those seem unrelated.
Open source reportOff Leash 2 April Update Iran Israel carried out a brazen strike on Iran's consulate in Damascus, Syria, killing seven Iranian military advisors - including three generals. Israel acknowledged the strike but rejected the notion that the building was a diplomatic facility and said it was a military building instead. The distinction is important because - as one NGO director noted - targeting a known diplomatic building would be "akin to targeting Iran on its own soil." Israel seems to be escalating its covert war on Iranian targets in a manner calculated to hinder Iran's offensive operations without drawing it and its proxies into all-out war. Indeed, Iran's response to the Damascus strikes was cautious: Tehran vowed revenge "at the appropriate time and place." Its proxies were more audacious in their revenge threats: the head of the Iraq-based, Iran-backed Hezbollah Brigades militia threatened to arm over 12,000 Jordanians to exact retribution on Israel for the Damascus strike. Israel and Gaza Israel's Knesset passed a law that will allow PM Netanyahu to temporarily block foreign media outlets from operating in the country on national security grounds, and Netanyahu said he will promptly use the new law to ban Al Jazeera, which he has accused of being "a Hamas mouthpiece" and a "terrorist channel" for its sympathetic coverage of Palestinian causes. The White House called the looming ban "concerning" for its challenge to the free press. Separately, the NGO World Central Kitchen (WCK) said an Israeli airstrike killed seven of its foreign national aid workers in Gaza. Israel said it was "carrying out an in-depth examination" of the "tragic incident," and it's already drawing criticism from the aid community. Ukraine and Russia Ukraine launched a drone assault on an oil refinery deep inside Russia in Tatarstan, which is over 600 miles (1,000 km) from the Ukrainian border. Local authorities said the attack caused minimal damage but later conceded several people were injured. China Chinese electronics firm Xiaomi rolled out its new, Porsche-looking Super Ultra 7 (SU7) electric vehicle yesterday, and surprised the market with 90,000 orders for it on the first day - even though it launched in a market already crowded with inexpensive competitors. Xiaomi shares rose 16% on news of its strong first day of sales, raising the firm's enterprise value above that of traditional automakers GM and Ford. DRC Pres. Tshisekedi appointed Judith Suminwa Tuluka to be DRC's first female prime minister. Tuluka was formerly DRC's planning minister, and will now be called upon to craft a plan to bring peace to the restive east of the country. North Korea North Korea fired a suspected intermediate-range ballistic missile into the sea off its east coast early this morning - its third this year. The UN is no longer monitoring the sanctions violations that helped supply North Korea with kit for building missiles like this, thanks to a recent Russian veto on a motion to extend the monitoring program. Some analysts linked Russia's veto to an alleged weapons procurement agreement between Moscow and Pyongyang.
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