Off Leash Intel · loading
9 direct mentions across 9 briefings, with 12 linked developments.
Latest linked intelligence
Syria’s new government began selecting a 210-member legislature, with interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa set to appoint 70 members and local committees choosing the remainder.
Unverified development · updated through
Syria’s new government began selecting a 210-member legislature, with interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa set to appoint 70 members and local committees choosing the remainder.
Open source reportGeography
Marker precision is disclosed on selection. Country and regional centroids show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Ahmed al-Sharaa dossier
12 mapped developments across 3 map positions. Centroid markers show geographic scope, not an exact incident site.
Türkiye
Syrian interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa visited Türkiye, which as hosting approximately three million Syrian refugees.
Approximate map position: regional centroid. This marker does not claim an exact event location.
Chronology
Off Leash update 16 Sept VENEZUELA •The U.S. Navy targeted another drug boat near Venezuela, killing three people who Pres. Trump said were "positively identified, extraordinarily violent drug trafficking cartels and narcoterrorists" heading to the U.S. with "big bags of cocaine and fentanyl." •Some legal experts have criticized these extra judicial strikes on alleged drug boats as excessive, pointing out that even convicted drug traffickers don't face the death penalty. These accused traffickers are being executed without a trial. [Trump argues that drug cartels should be treated as foreign terrorist organizations and have forfeited their right to stand trial.] •Before the new U.S. strike was announced yesterday, Venezuela's dictator, Nicolas Maduro, called the first U.S. strike of this campaign - which occurred Sep. 2 - a "heinous crime" and "a military attack on civilians who were not at war and were not militarily threatening any country." •Maduro insists that the U.S. is trying to goad Venezuela into a "major war" with the goal of "regime change for oil." Few in the Trump administration would be sad to see Maduro's regime fall, but this naval operation seems like a roundabout way to launch a "major war." ISRAEL AND GAZA •Israel began the "main phase" of its ground offensive on Gaza City this morning, rolling tanks into Gaza's largest population center - which Israel believes to be Hamas's last major stronghold. •U.S. SecState Rubio just paid a visit to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, and offered Netanyahu full U.S. support for his offensive against Hamas. Rubio also conceded that a Gaza peace deal may be out of reach at this stage. •Both Rubio and Netanyahu dodged questions about whether Israel told Pres. Trump it planned to target Hamas leaders in Qatar in advance of the strike. Israeli officials maintain that Trump did indeed have advance warning; the White House claims he only found out after missiles were in the air. Either way, it seems clear Trump didn't have enough advance warning to object to the strike or warn Qatar about it. •On the other side, Arab states met yesterday in Doha to rally behind Qatar in unanimous objection to Israel's strike. •Iran's Pres. Pezeshkian was one of the most vocal attendees denouncing the strike; he complained that "Israel strikes wherever it wants and does whatever it wants," and proposed an "Islamic NATO" to deter future Israeli fire. That's ironic, given that Iran carried out its own ballistic missile strikes on Qatar just three months ago. SYRIA •I missed a key event in my weekly outlook: Syria's new government began a one-week process to choose its new legislature yesterday. •Interim President Ahmed al Sharaa will appoint 70 of its 210 members, while local committees will pick the rest. •As The Economist noted: "Popular democracy this is not, but it is certainly more unpredictable than elections for the old parliament, in which only Bashar al-Assad’s toadies were allowed to run." CHINA •U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent announced an eleventh-hour agreement to allow TikTok to continue operating in the U.S. under U.S.-controlled owners ahead of tomorrow's extended deadline. Presidents Trump and Xi will "complete" the deal Friday. •Separately, China's markets regulator ruled that chipmaking giant Nvidia's 2020 acquisition of Mellanox Technologies violated antitrust laws. That's going to make ongoing U.S.-China trade talks in Madrid awkward. Some observers suggested the ruling may be China's revenge for Pres. Trump's pressure on U.S. allies to raise tariffs on China over China's purchases of Russian oil.
Open source reportOff Leash update 18 July SYRIA •Since taking power earlier this year, Syria's Pres. al Sharaa - a former jihadist - has carefully cultivated a new image as an inclusive statesman who has let go of past grievances, including against Israel. •However, Israel's airstrikes on Damascus this week have clearly tested al Sharaa's patience. In his sharpest public criticism yet, al Sharaa accused Israel of inciting "chaos" with its "wide-scale targeting of civilian and government facilities" in Damascus. •Prime Minister Netanyahu seemed to confirm reports that Israel used its airstrikes to bully al Sharaa's government into the latest ceasefire (which is still mostly holding up) when he said the truce was "achieved through strength." •Netanyahu seems resolute in his commitment to using Israel's military might to protect Syria's Druze: he vowed to block Syrian troops from deploying anywhere south of Damascus. UKRAINE •When Presidents Trump and Zelensky spoke by phone on July 4, Trump asked Zelensky about Ukraine's capacity to strike targets in Moscow and St. Petersburg. •The White House said Trump was "was merely asking a question, not encouraging further killing," but it seems Zelensky took the question as tacit approval to fire at Russia's largest and second-largest cities: Ukraine launched over 100* drones at the two cities yesterday. [*100 came from Russian reports - which usually seek to downplay Ukrainian battle strength - so the true number of Ukrainian drones was likely far higher.] •Separately, Ukraine announced two moves to reinvigorate its war effort with arms boosts. First, its Brave1 defense tech incubator launched a program offering Ukraine's front lines as a test bed for new weapons prototypes that allied countries want to test in action. Ukrainian troops will test the new models and report back on how they perform. •Second, Pres. Zelensky set a goal for Ukraine to produce 50% of its weapons domestically within the next six months, compared to the 40% it currently self-supplies. UK •The UK's incumbent Labour Party introduced a plan to lower the voting age to 16. Labour says the shift would bring new, youthful energy to British democracy. Naturally, it would also boost Labour's support: as in the U.S., younger voters in the UK tend to lean left. IRAN •A new U.S. intelligence assessment cautiously determined that last month's U.S. strikes on Iran badly damaged - and perhaps destroyed - the underground nuclear enrichment site at Fordo, and likely surgically destroyed the facilities (like centrifuges) at Isfahan and Natanz that would be used to enrich any surviving 60% uranium to weapons grade - though Isfahan and Natanz suffered less overall damage than Fordo. •That assessment corroborates claims that the strikes have set Iran's nuclear weapons program back years or even decades: even if Iran was able to shield some or all of its 60% uranium from the blasts, it likely does not have any surviving centrifuges to further enrich it to weapons grade. •Separately, additional intelligence reports suggest that Iran's Pres. Pezeshkian sustained minor leg injuries while fleeing an Israeli strike sometime around day four of their 12-day war. Pezeshkian, who is still open to nuclear talks with the U.S., was careful to clarify that: "It was not the United States that was behind the attempt on my life. It was Israel." DRC •DRC is reportedly close to finalizing a four-year football (soccer) sponsorship deal to pay FC Barcelona €10.0 to 11.5 million ($11.6 to 13.4 million) per year to place the slogan "The Heart of Africa" on its men's and women's training and warm-up jerseys, in a bid to attract tourists to DRC. •That follows similar deals DRC announced last month with AS Monaco and AC Milan. •DRC is probably hoping to emulate its regional rival Rwanda, which saw a 17% boost in tourist arrivals within a year of signing a jersey sponsorship deal with the UK's Arsenal football club.
Open source reportOff Leash update 4 June 2025 IRAN •U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff proposed new terms for a nuclear deal with Iran. Under this proposal, Iran could continue to enrich uranium to levels used for nuclear power plants (around 3%) - but not to weapons grade levels - while the U.S., Iran, and other countries flesh out a more detailed long-term agreement. •The NYT said Witkoff's proposal "would amount to a bridge between the current situation, in which Iran is rapidly producing near-bomb-grade uranium, and the U.S.’s goal: no uranium enrichment at all on Iranian soil." [Instead, Iran could partner with Oman or Saudi Arabia in a closely-monitored consortium carrying out enrichment.] •Iran said it would respond in the coming days. UKRAINE •The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) released a new study estimating Ukraine War casualties at almost 1.4 million killed and wounded: nearly a million Russians and about 400,000 Ukrainians. •CSIS also noted that Russia's forward progress has stagnated at just ~165 feet (50 meters) per day in some places along the front. That's slower than the grueling UK / French advance in WWI's Battle of the Somme. •Separately, Pres. Zelensky reshuffled his military leadership, relieving army chief Mykhailo Drapatyi of some of his organizational responsibilities, like training new recruits "so that he can concentrate on the front 100%." •Drapatyi faced criticism for a devastating Russian strike on a military training ground that killed 12 on June 1 and had offered to resign over it, but then he partly redeemed himself by leading the effort to stabilize the front lines in Pokrovsk, Donetsk in the ensuing days. SYRIA •Militants fired rockets from Syria into the Golan Heights for the first time in a year yesterday. •Israel quickly blamed Syria's new government under interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa - who Israeli Defense Minister Katz said would be held "directly responsible for every threat and [rocket] fire toward the State of Israel" - and retaliated with artillery fire on the source of the rockets, as well as a series of airstrikes targeting what it said were government weapons. •Eager to avoid fresh conflict, Syria's Foreign Ministry vehemently denied involvement: "Syria has never been and will never be a threat to anyone in the region." TRADE •U.S. tariffs on imported steel and aluminum rose from 25% to 50% today. Pres. Trump said the doubled rate is designed to protect domestic producers from competition from cheaper foreign rivals: "At 25%, [foreign producers] can sort of get over that fence. At 50%, they can no longer get over the fence." •The White House also sent U.S. trading partners letters yesterday "to give them a friendly reminder that the deadline is coming up" (as press secretary Karoline Leavitt put it) to strike a deal avoiding new tariffs. OTHER NEWS •As anticipated, the European Central Bank confirmed Bulgaria's accession to the euro today. Prime Minister Rossen Jeliazkov celebrated the event as "a remarkable day," but some traditionalists protested against a change that they fear will raise prices and erode national identity.
Open source reportOff Leash update 16 May UKRAINE AND RUSSIA •After Pres. Putin snubbed him for peace talks in Istanbul, Pres. Zelensky - who had already arrived in Turkey - instead met with Turkey's Pres. Erdogan in Ankara and sent a downsized delegation led by his defense minister to meet Russian envoys in Istanbul. •The downgraded Ukraine-Russia meeting was postponed from yesterday to today, and for a while it was unclear whether it would move forward at all. In the end, the U.S. mediated indirect negotiations this morning, and left Turkey to facilitate direct talks this afternoon. •These will be the first direct negotiations between Ukraine and Russia in three years, which is cause for celebration in itself. But few hold high hopes for any real breakthroughs in these lower-level meetings. •Pres. Trump told reporters that "nothing's going to happen until Putin and I get together," and said he plans to meet with Putin soon to kickstart progress towards a peace deal. SYRIA •SecState Rubio met with his Syrian counterpart, Asaad Hassan al-Shaibani, in Antalya, Turkey yesterday to continue the rapprochement Pres. Trump started by announcing an end to U.S. sanctions on Syria and then meeting Pres. Al Sharaa in person earlier this week. •Syria is cheering Trump's move to lift U.S. sanctions on Syria, but the NYT cautiously pointed out that the process will take time: U.S. presidents can only annul some sanctions unilaterally; others can only be removed after slow-moving Congressional action. •Meanwhile, Syria's Central Bank Governor, Abdulkader Husrieh, penned an op-ed in The Economist pleading for international support for his herculean effort to rebuild Syria's war-torn economy. He specifically implored regional banks and the Syrian diaspora to help recapitalize and modernize Syria's financial sector, and asked the IMF and World Bank for funding as well as capacity-building and policy support. IRAN •Pres. Trump said that the U.S. and Iran are "getting close" to a nuclear deal and noted that "Iran has sort of agreed to the terms" after four rounds of negotiations. •It's not clear what exactly those terms will be. Trump's team has oscillated between insisting on harsh demands that Iran firmly rejects - like barring Iran from enriching uranium altogether, even to low grades for civilian use - and a more pragmatic approach that Tehran is likelier to agree to. •Talks have seemed cordial so far - Iran's foreign ministry described them as "difficult but useful" - but Trump ominously warned of "violence like people have never seen before" if negotiations fail (though he added "I don't want to do that step"). INDIA AND PAKISTAN •India's defense minister, Rajnath Singh, pointed to his country's recent beef with Pakistan as proof that Pakistan is a "rogue and irresponsible nation" whose nuclear weapons must be "brought under the surveillance" of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). •Pakistan's Foreign Ministry then shot back that the IAEA should instead investigate "the repeated theft and illicit trafficking incidents involving nuclear and radioactive material in India." VENEZUELA AND GUYANA •Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado called on supporters to boycott the May 25 gubernatorial elections. •Machado told AFP that the regional vote would be a "huge farce that the regime wants to stage to bury its defeat of July 28" - when the opposition participated in nationwide elections, only for Pres. Maduro to steal the vote and launch a violent crackdown afterwards. •Machado leads Venezuela's largest opposition movement, and many opposition supporters will likely heed her call to boycott the election, but some smaller opposition factions - including one led by former presidential candidate Henrique Capriles - plan to participate in the poll. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 13 March 2025 UKRAINE •Having secured Ukraine's tentative agreement to Pres. Trump's 30-day ceasefire proposal, U.S. officials landed in Moscow to pitch the plan to Russia. •Russia seems lukewarm on the proposal. A Kremlin aide called it "nothing more than a short reprieve for Ukrainian forces," and complained that a 30-day truce merely gives Ukraine a break from fighting. •Russia favors a more permanent truce that solidifies its territorial gains, and has reportedly responded to the U.S. proposal with a list of demands that must be met before it agrees to a ceasefire. •Meanwhile Russia retook Sudzha, and has now nearly recaptured all of the Kursk region from Ukrainian forces who captured parts of it in recent months. Pres. Putin visited troops in Sudzha to show that the city - which was the largest Kursk settlement Ukraine captured - is now firmly back under Russian control. SYRIA •Interim Pres. Sharaa appointed a seven-man committee to investigate reports that his new government's forces are stoking sectarian violence and carrying out human rights abuses - including summary executions - against civilians in Alawite strongholds in western Syria. The committee will report its findings back to Sharaa within 30 days. •The Syrian Network for Human Rights, an NGO, estimates that at least 779 people have died in sectarian skirmishes in recent weeks, with government forces and pro-Assad militias each responsible for about half of those deaths. GAZA •A new UN report accused Israel of carrying out "genocidal acts" against Gazans by restricting medical supplies for maternity wards. Prime Minister Netanyahu immediately rejected the report's findings, calling them biased and anti-Semitic. PAKISTAN •Pakistan's military said it concluded its operation to rescue the estimated 400 hostages that the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) captured after hijacking a train near Quetta on Tuesday. •The military freed around 300 of the hostages, but the BLA claimed that it executed 50 of the others to punish the Pakistani government for refusing to agree to a prisoner swap. •The episode was another sign that Karachi is struggling to contain the BLA's separatist militancy. CHINA •Taiwan's Pres. Lai accused China of escalating its "influence campaigns and manipulation" on the island in an effort to "absorb" it, and said that his government charged 64 people - mostly current of former Chinese military officials - with spying for China in 2024. •In response to Beijing's "infiltration," Lai vowed to introduce counter measures like more rigorous scrutiny of Chinese citizens' applications for Taiwanese residency. DRC •The Southern African Development Community (SADC) said it will conduct a "phased withdrawal" of its regional troops from eastern DRC, where at least 15 of them have died in recent fighting. •Having failed to keep the peace in eastern DRC, the SADC is now urging a "diplomatic and political solution" to the conflict. •Angola will mediate peace talks between DRC and the M23 next week. GREENLAND •Greenland's centre-right Demokraatit Party unexpectedly won the largest share of yesterday's vote, with around 30% support. •The Demokraatit Party favors gradual independence from Denmark, and will try to form a government that takes the territory in that direction. In addition, party leader Jens-Frederik Nielsen has vocally opposed Pres. Trump's suggestion that the U.S. could acquire Greenland, and will likely rebuff Trump's future overtures towards the island. VENEZUELA •U.S. envoy Richard Grenell announced on X that deportation flights to Venezuela will resume tomorrow. Pres. Maduro's government briefly blocked the flights to retaliate for the U.S. suspension of Chevron's operating license in Venezuela, but apparently has now reversed course under U.S. pressure. 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 10 March 2025 COMING UP THIS WEEK •U.S. and Ukrainian officials will meet in Saudi Arabia starting tomorrow. Pres. Zelensky is in Saudi and said he was "fully committed" to negotiating an end to the war, but he won't participate in the U.S.-Ukrainian meetings; instead, he'll meet Saudi's Crown Prince MBS for economic talks while his delegates meet U.S. SecState Rubio et al. •Greenland goes to the polls tomorrow. While the question of independence from Denmark isn't directly on the ballot, analysts will be watching results to see if Greenlanders veer towards candidates in favor of greater autonomy for their island. •China, Iran, and Russia will hold joint naval exercises in the northern Indian Ocean this week. Several countries - including Pakistan, Qatar, South Africa, and the UAE - will send observers. COMMODITY PRICES •Aluminum: $2,706/ton •Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,450/ton •Cobalt: $26,960/ton •Copper: $9,614/ton •Gold: $2,901/toz •Lead: $2,019/ton •Natural Gas (Nymex): $4.60/MMbtu - a three-year high due to supply constraints and cold weather •WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $67.06/barrel •Zinc: $2,887/ton GAZA •France, Germany, Italy, and the UK said they would support Egypt's plan for post-war Gaza; however, that plan still faces significant hurdles: the U.S. and Israel have rejected it - Israel more vehemently than the U.S. - and so far no donors have stepped up to commit the first of the $53 billion needed to fund the plan. •Optimists are hopeful for a second-phase ceasefire agreement this week. Israel sent a delegation to Qatar today "in an effort to advance the negotiations," and Hamas said it has received "positive signals" from the Egyptian and Qatari mediators it's been working with. SYRIA •An independent monitor estimated that over 1,000 people - mostly civilians - have been killed in the past week's clashes between the new government's forces and loyalists to the deposed Assad regime in Latakia. •The Assad loyalists clashing with government troops don't appear to be centrally organized or led; rather, the Institute for the Study of War suggests there are multiple small groups of loyalists each independently declaring a "united" front against the new government. •Interim president Ahmed al Sharaa appealed for calm and asked Syrians "to be reassured because the country has the fundamentals for survival." IRAN •Pres. Trump said he wrote a letter to Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, proposing a revival of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran. •Khamenei seemed cold on the idea: he complained about "bullying governments" using talks "as a pathway to have new demands." •Pres. Pezeshkian, meanwhile, seemed more open to talks - but noted that Khamenei calls the shots: "My position has been and will remain that I believe in negotiations, but now we have to follow the parameters set by the supreme leader." UKRAINE •A group of civilian and military analysts unveiled a framework for a ceasefire in Ukraine that came out of their spring 2022 meeting in Geneva. Their proposal calls for a six-mile buffer zone along the 700-mile front lines, which would be patrolled by peacekeepers, including foreign troops (the UK and France have offered to send peacekeepers, but Russia rejected the idea). •Meanwhile, Russia is eroding Ukraine's gains in Kursk by pushing Ukrainian front lines back and cutting off supply chains to the ~10,000 Ukrainian troops in Kursk. Ukraine had hoped to use the parts of Kursk it recaptured last year as bargaining chips in a negotiated peace; Russia's recent counter-advance will leave Ukraine with less to offer in a truce. •Separately, Pres. Trump said he was "just about" ready to start sharing intelligence with Ukraine again - now that Ukraine is participating obligingly in peace talks in Saudi.
Open source reportOff Leash update 27 Feb Ukraine •The new U.S.-Ukraine mineral deal is taking shape quickly: it was only announced Tuesday (though speculation was swirling before that), and Pres. Zelensky will fly to Washington tomorrow to sign the final agreement. •Negotiators leaked a draft of the agreement dated Tuesday to the media, and several outlets published the full text (https://t.co/WCfpbsvV3e). Some takeaways: oUkraine will put half of its revenues from future mineral and energy sales into a new, U.S.-controlled investment fund that will reinvest some of the funds into rebuilding Ukraine. oThe fund will only draw on revenues from new projects; proceeds from existing mines, oil wells, etc. are not part of this arrangement. oThe only reference to U.S. security guarantees is highly noncommittal - paragraph 10 says the U.S. "supports Ukraine’s effort to obtain security guarantees needed to establish lasting peace" - but Zelensky said he's content with that wording. Trump told his cabinet the onus for security guarantees should be on Europe - not the U.S. oTrump's initial demands for a $500 billion contribution target and Ukraine's commitment to repay twice the amount of any future U.S. aid were both omitted from the draft. •Ukraine has large untapped reserves of several critical minerals whose development could contribute to this fund, including uranium (Europe's largest reserves!), graphite, lithium, titanium, natural gas, and rare earths. However, around 40% of its mineral resources are in regions Russia controls - and would likely keep in a peace deal. Gaza •Hamas and Israel both fulfilled their part of a delicate hostage-prisoner swap yesterday: Hamas returned the remains of four deceased hostages - and crucially, did so without any of the macabre theatrics that marred prior handovers - and Israel began releasing the 600-plus Palestinian prisoners it agreed to free in return. •This swap went smoothly, but the Gaza ceasefire remains fragile, and Israel and Hamas still haven't agreed on terms for the second phase that begins on Sunday. •Israel estimates that Hamas now holds about 25 living and 30 deceased hostages. Syria •Prominent Syrians who attended Pres. al Sharaa's two-day nation-building conference this week left underwhelmed. Several said the summit was poorly organized, left out key stakeholders (like the Syrian Democratic Forces), and failed to make meaningful progress towards planning Syria's future. Venezuela •Pres. Trump announced that he was cancelling Biden-era concessions that allowed Chevron to continue producing and exporting Venezuelan oil because Pres. Maduro failed to implement promised electoral and immigration reforms. •Chevron's license to continue production and export despite sanctions brought an estimated $4 billion into Maduro's state coffers and represented around a quarter of Venezuelan oil production while it was in force. Sahel •The Alliance of Sahel States - Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger - unveiled a new flag for the triad their juntas formed in opposition to ECOWAS. •In keeping with their modus operandi of doing the opposite of whatever their former colonizer - France - would do, the flag they designed is an affront to modern vexillology that breaks all the important rules of flag design (no lettering, simple design a child could draw from memory, 2-3 basic colors that contrast well, etc.)
Open source reportOff Leash update 26 Feb Syria •Syria's interim president, Ahmed al Sharaa, opened a two-day conference in Damascus yesterday. •Al Sharaa hopes to use the event to win support from the diverse factions in attendance for his unity government, but one key faction is missing: the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led militia that controls northeast Syria. •Al Sharaa would prefer to include the SDF, but didn't invite it to this summit because the SDF refused to agree to his condition to disarm. The SDF doesn't want to disarm because - as its commander, Gen. Mazloum Abdi, told BBC recently - "we are still at war with Turkey and its proxies." •Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu called for the "complete demilitarization" of southern Syria on Sunday, and Pres. al Sharaa responded yesterday by demanding that Israel withdraw from the Syrian positions it grabbed as Assad's government fell. Israel then showed it has no plans to withdraw by launching airstrikes on what the army described as "military targets in southern Syria, including headquarters and sites containing weapons." Ukraine •U.S. and Ukrainian officials announced that they'd reached a deal that would grant the U.S. a share of Ukrainian mineral revenues. •The specific terms of their agreement aren't yet clear because the final translated draft hasn't been released, but early reports suggest the U.S. would give Ukraine security guarantees in return for up to half of the revenues from Ukraine's future mineral sales. Russia •The EU revealed the targets of its 16th round of sanctions that was announced last week to mark the third anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Among the 48 individuals sanctioned was chess grandmaster Sergey Karjakin, who vocally endorsed the invasion and became a Russian senator representing Crimea. DRC •The UN's World Food Program estimated that around one million people have been displaced by fighting in eastern DRC in the first two months of 2025. That's roughly equivalent to the full-time population of Goma. It also seems debatable: other reports suggest that life in Goma and Bukavu is returning to semi-normal under Rwandan and rebel control. •The UK suspended its aid to Rwanda over Kigali's invasion of eastern DRC. Rwanda grumbled about the "punitive" suspension and accused the UK of having "clearly chosen a side." •Burundi chose Kinshasa's side too, and local reports noted Burundian soldiers heading to Uvira alongside pro-Kinshasa militias. •As if DRC needed more to worry about, health authorities reported the outbreak of what seems to be a new, deadly, and still unidentified illness in the northwest. The mystery disease started with three children who got sick after eating a bat; it has now infected over 430 people and killed at least 53 of them. Tests have ruled out Ebola and Marburg viruses. •Separately, Reuters reported that Kinshasa is considering imposing quotas on cobalt exports, and will evaluate the idea during the four-month export ban it announced Monday. Gaza •Hamas and Israel said they'd reached a deal to trade 600+ Palestinian prisoners for the remains of four slain hostages. Israel was supposed to free these prisoners last weekend, but postponed their release over anger at Hamas's darkly theatrical hostage release ceremonies. •The Times of Israel reported that Hamas has agreed not to dramatize today's swap - but it also noted that it broke a similar promise last time. China •Taiwan's coast guard detained a Chinese-linked cargo ship that it suspects of severing a subsea cable yesterday. China said the incident was just a "common maritime accident" and warned Taiwan against casting blame "while the basic facts and the people responsible for the accident have not yet been clarified." 1/2
Open source reportOff Leash update 5 Feb Israel and Gaza •Pres. Trump received Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at the White House yesterday. •Netanyahu was the first foreign leader Trump invited to visit during his new term, and analysts suggested Trump's invitation was intended to mend bilateral ties that Trump's envoys tested by pushing Netanyahu to agree to a Gaza ceasefire deal that Netanyahu's hardline supporters opposed. •Following their meeting, Trump proposed that the U.S. take control of the Gaza Strip after permanently relocating the two million Palestinians living there to "other countries of interest with humanitarian hearts." It's not clear which other countries would accept permanently-displaced Palestinians: Egypt and Jordan have both rejected Trump's request to take them in. Syria •Pres. Al Sharaa continued his first foreign tour with a visit to Turkiye, which is home to about three million Syrian refugees. •Turkiye has offered to help train and equip Syria's new army - in part, because it wants to ensure Kurdish groups like the People's Protection Units (YPG) aren't welcome in the new force. •Al Sharaa, on the other hand, wants the new army to be more inclusive, and said he has "asked [Turkiye] to wait in order to give space for the negotiations" with the YPG and other Kurdish groups. Turkiye seems to be obliging for now, but may feel pushed to intervene if Al Sharaa prolongs negotiations. •Al Sharaa also gave his first media interview since becoming interim president to The Economist, and it was a bit testier than his recent pronouncements promising inclusivity and peace. He warned Israel of "trouble in the future" if it keeps control of the terrain it captured as the Assad regime fell in December, and called the U.S. military presence in eastern Syria "illegal." •Al Sharaa was vague about his plans for elections and democratic governance, only offering that the country was "heading in the direction of" democracy. North Korea •A Ukrainian commander told Business Insider that the North Korean soldiers his company fought against in Russia were treated like "cannon fodder" and "would just charge forward from the tree line, like in a World War II movie." •His account of the North Koreans' unconventional battle tactics was consistent with other reports of their chaotic and seemingly fearless battlefield movements. Russia has since withdrawn the (reportedly decimated) North Korean units from the front lines, and some analysts have speculated they're being retrained in modern battle tactics before they return to the front lines.
Open source report